SUMMER 2017 ISSUE Arizona’s Economy: Finding a Second Wind? By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBRC Director and Research Professor June 1, 2017 Arizona Recent Developments A rizona’s economy coasted into 2017 with modest forward momentum. State job gains decelerated late last year and slower growth has persisted into early 2017. Nonetheless, the state continues to outpace the nation in job creation. In better news, the state’s unemployment rate declined again last year, and is now back to a level last seen just before the Great Recession. Tightening labor markets are translating into faster wage and income growth and that should eventually boost retail sales. Overall, the outlook calls for the state to accelerate modestly in the near term, before growth slows as demographic forces (baby boom retirements) take hold. Official benchmark employment data for 2016 have been released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Arizona posted another year of solid gains, adding 68,300 net new jobs. That translated into 2.6% growth, close to the state’s 2.5% growth rate in 2015, but well above the national rate of 1.7%. The Phoenix metropolitan statistical area (MSA) added 60,200 jobs last year, which generated 3.1% growth. That was slightly slower than the 3.2% pace in 2015. In contrast, job growth in the Tucson MSA accelerated significantly last year, from 0.8% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2016. Most of the job gains in Arizona were in Phoenix, which accounted for 88.1% of the state total. Tucson added 4,700 jobs, which accounted for 6.9%. Statewide, job gains last year were concentrated in professional and business services; education and health services; leisure and hospitality; trade, transportation, and utilities; and financial activities (Exhibit 1). These five sectors together accounted for 84.5% of state job growth. The only sector In This Issue Arizona’s Economy: Finding a Second Wind?.....................1 Forecast Tables...................5 Arizona Economic Indicators: State.................................6 Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas......................10 Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties..........................15 “Arizona posted another year of solid gains, adding 68,300 net new jobs. That translated into 2.6% growth...well above the national rate of 1.7%” “The state added 6,600 construction jobs last year and employment in this sector has increased by 23,500 since hitting bottom in 2011” to lose jobs last year was natural resources and mining. This was caused by declines in copper production driven by low prices. The state added 6,600 construction jobs last year and employment in this sector has increased by 23,500 since hitting bottom in 2011 (annual basis, Exhibit 1). Nonetheless, construction employment remained more than 100,000 jobs below its pre-recession peak in 2006. Recent gains in construction jobs have been driven in part by increased residential construction activity. Arizona housing permits increased 23.1% in 2016, with single-family permits up 11.4% and multi-family permits up 62.5%. Activity increased in the Phoenix MSA last year, with total permits rising 27.6%. That was fueled by both single-family (up 10.9%) and multi-family (up 75.6%) permits. Housing permits in the Tucson MSA rose 1.6% last year, with single-family activity up 8.7% and multi-family activity down 77.2%. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), state personal income increased 4.3% last year. With 1.1% population growth, as measured by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, that translated into an increase in per capita income of 3.1%. Arizona’s rate of increase last year was slightly above the national pace of 2.9%, but well above the national rate of inflation of 1.3%, measured by the national CPIU. That indicates a rising standard of living in Arizona. Nonetheless, Arizona’s per capita income remained well below the national average. Indeed, the percentage gap in 2016 was 17.7%, down slightly from 17.9% in 2015, but well above the gap ten years ago of 10.1%. Arizona’s merchandise exports to Mexico continued to fall in early 2017, with the value of exports down 8.3% over the year in the first quarter. Pedestrian and personal vehicle passenger border Exhibit 2: Nearly All Sectors in Arizona Added Jobs Last Year Job Gains, 2015 to 2016, and Wages by Industry 11 Professional and Business Services $52,982 10 Education and Health Services $48,452 9 Leisure and Hospitality $21,800 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 8 $43,067 Financial Activities 7 $65,288 Construction 6 $49,390 Manufacturing 5 $72,072 Government 4 $50,479 Other Services 3 $33,816 Information 2 Avg. Wages/Worker, 2015: $47,937 $65,822 Natural Resources and Mining 1 $46,178 -5 0 5 10 15 thousands 2 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 20 p June, 2017 Summer Issue Exhibit 2: U.S. Real GDP Growth Accelerates in the Near Term While the Labor Market Tightens Real GDP & the Unemployment Rate IHS Markit, April 2017 percent 5 Unemployment Rate (line: right axis) Real GDP Growth (bars:left axis) 4 percent 10 8 3 2 6 1 4 0 -1 2 -2 -3 00 05 10 crossings from Mexico to the U.S. through Arizona border ports rose last year, but at a slow pace. These trends were likely impacted in important ways by the major appreciation in the U.S. dollar versus the Mexican peso since mid-2014. Arizona Outlook The state outlook depends in part on future national economic performance. The national baseline forecast calls for the U.S. economy to continue to expand during the next decade. It also calls for a modest acceleration in the near term, with real GDP, our broadest measure of economic activity, expected to speed up from 1.6% growth last year to 2.6% growth by 2018. Growth slows thereafter to the 2.0% per year range, as demographic forces (baby boomer retirement) weigh on the labor force (Exhibit 2). Continued steady improvement in the U.S. economy lays a solid foundation for gains in Arizona during the forecast. However, 15 20 25 while Arizona is forecast to continue to outpace the nation in job, population, and income growth, it is not likely to return to growth rates that were common during the 30 years before the Great Recession. Exhibit 3 summarizes the current forecast for the state. Arizona’s job growth is expected to decelerate modestly this year, with the rate falling from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2017. Job gains accelerate in 2018, with faster U.S. growth, before gradually declining to the 2.0% per year range during the remainder of the forecast. 0 “While Arizona is forecast to continue to outpace the nation in job, population, and income growth, it is not likely to return to growth rates that were common during the 30 years before the Great Recession.” Arizona Outlook Summary Sustained job growth means faster population gains, as Arizona draws migrants from other states. Overall, population growth is forecast to rise from 1.1% last year to 1.7% by 2018. Income gains accelerate in the near term, with growth rising from 4.3% last year to 5.7% azeconomy.org | 3 Exhibit 3: Arizona Outlook Summary 2017q2 Actual* 2016 Forecast 2017 2018 2019 Growth Rate Nonfarm Jobs 14:24 2.4 2.7 2.3 Personal Income 7:12 5.7 6.1 5.8 Retail Sales Less Food 0:00 3.4 4.6 5.2 Population 2:24 1.5 1.7 1.7 4:48 4.7 4.3 4.2 36,561 41,090 45,443 46,314 Level Unempl. Rate Housing Permits in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018. The large increase in 2017 is driven in part by the increase in the state minimum wage from $8.05/hour to $10.00/hour in 2017 and by tighter labor market conditions more generally. The forecast calls for Arizona’s unemployment rate to fall from 5.2% in 2016 to 4.2% by 2019. Stronger income growth is forecast to eventually translate into faster sales growth. “Sustained job growth means faster population gains, as Arizona draws migrants from other states.” 4 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue FORECAST TABLES Arizona Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago Residential Building Permits (units)   % Chg from Year Ago Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil)   % Chg from Prior Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 267,361 278,925 294,779 312,814 331,066 351,275 4.5% 4.3% 5.7% 6.1% 5.8% 6.1% 92,635 94,848 99,204 103,629 109,513 115,547 4.7% 2.4% 4.6% 4.5% 5.7% 5.5% 2,635.7 2,704.0 2,770.2 2,846.4 2,913.2 2,982.5 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 6,758.3 6,835.5 6,935.7 7,052.7 7,173.0 7,292.7 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 28,910 36,561 41,090 45,443 46,314 46,121 7.1% 26.5% 12.4% 10.6% 1.9% -0.4% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 186,693 196,521 208,879 222,782 238,135 254,182 4.9% 5.3% 6.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.7% 65,100 67,239 70,678 74,066 79,012 83,787 5.1% 3.3% 5.1% 4.8% 6.7% 6.0% 1,912.8 1,972.9 2,031.7 2,099.5 2,164.0 2,222.9 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 4,482.9 4,550.4 4,630.7 4,716.7 4,805.5 4,896.6 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 22,402 28,207 30,656 32,338 33,102 33,894 10.1% 25.9% 8.7% 5.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 38,922 40,090 41,742 43,815 46,089 48,400 2.7% 3.0% 4.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.0% 12,943 13,057 13,520 13,892 14,573 15,178 3.1% 0.9% 3.5% 2.8% 4.9% 4.1% Total Nonfarm Employment (000s) 368.6 373.4 378.7 385.9 392.7 398.7   % Chg from Year Ago 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1,009.4 1,013.1 1,021.3 1,030.3 1,039.2 1,048.4 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Residential Building Permits (units)   % Chg from Prior Tucson MSA Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago Residential Permits (units)   % Chg from Year Ago 2,428 3,048 3,658 3,911 3,960 3,987 -25.3% 25.5% 20.0% 6.9% 1.3% 0.7% Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact George Hammond: ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 520.626.1679 The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states. azeconomy.org | 5 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 3,302.1 3,324.0 3,330.9 Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force   % Chg from Year Ago Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate 3,260.5 3,277.8 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3,098.5 3,114.2 3,134.1 3,157.1 3,165.6 162.0 163.6 168.0 166.9 165.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS Total 2,735.4 2,731.2 2,739.9 2,736.1 2,745.8 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2,323.7 2,320.6 2,329.2 2,327.2 2,336.6 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 309.3 309.1 309.9 310.4 313.5 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.4 Construction 136.4 135.7 135.2 137.2 139.7 Manufacturing 161.4 161.9 163.0 161.6 162.4 122.3 122.5 123.0 122.5 122.6 2,426.1 2,422.1 2,430.0 2,425.7 2,432.3 2,014.4 2,011.5 2,019.3 2,016.8 2,023.1   % Chg from Year Ago Total Private   % Chg from Year Ago Goods Producing Mining and Logging Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 37.9 93.1 94.3 95.3 95.5 96.0 331.2 329.9 329.6 327.2 328.0 Transportation and Utilities 95.8 95.4 95.3 95.6 95.7 Information 44.7 44.6 44.6 44.8 45.4 Finance and Insurance 154.6 156.7 157.3 158.2 159.4 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 51.3 50.8 51.5 51.1 50.7 Professional and Business Services 420.3 416.7 418.9 416.5 414.5 140.1 140.5 143.0 142.3 140.4 32.4 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.2 247.8 244.2 243.9 242.1 241.9 59.4 59.0 59.1 59.0 60.4 357.8 358.3 360.4 359.9 361.5 42.3 41.7 41.2 39.9 41.1 276.0 277.5 279.8 283.1 283.7 87.9 86.6 86.3 86.0 86.7 411.7 410.6 410.7 408.9 409.2 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% -0.4% -0.3% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Government   % Chg from Year Ago Federal Government 55.5 55.4 55.4 55.3 55.0 State Government 87.0 86.9 86.9 86.7 87.1 Local Government 269.2 268.3 268.4 266.9 267.1 6 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Total Private 24.06 24.71 25.03 24.69 25.25 3.4% 4.9% 5.6% 4.1% 5.6% Construction 25.72 25.82 26.27 25.82 25.70 Manufacturing 23.65 24.30 24.26 24.03 24.24 Financial Activities 27.96 28.55 28.78 28.25 29.17 Professional and Business Services 25.84 26.83 26.88 26.87 27.34 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 22.34 23.54 23.85 23.77 24.78 Education and Health Services 26.25 25.73 25.71 26.18 26.21 Leisure and Hospitality 14.36 14.98 15.09 14.94 15.01 9,586,531.4 8,238,536.2 7,800,679.2 8,766,762.9 5.5% 11.4% 1.3% 5.1% Retail Sales 6,801,712.1 4,975,045.1 5,005,936.1 5,714,988.3 Food, EBRC** 1,105,079.3 1,110,518.8 1,115,964.5 1,118,173.7 Restaurants & Bars 1,164,884.6 1,134,157.7 1,185,066.8 1,339,856.0 Gasoline, EBRC*** 514,855.5 1,018,814.7 493,711.7 593,745.0 Gallons, ADOT   % Chg from Year Ago Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC*   % Chg from Year Ago 245,637.2 465,424.7 226,473.3 266,134.0 Utilities 667,783.9 723,424.6 655,261.4 642,521.3 Communications 164,471.5 170,308.9 172,990.9 168,479.7 Amusements 115,473.2 104,502.0 117,161.2 148,883.6 Rentals Personal Property 338,837.6 321,454.0 323,782.6 412,912.5 Contracting 951,015.6 769,125.8 771,999.9 920,632.0 Hotel/Motel 187,828.6 263,850.4 327,472.4 385,423.4 Mining, Oil, & Gas Production 13,176.0 10,481.0 11,191.2 11,037.4 Mining Severance 68,988.8 58,379.3 61,304.6 71,741.2 Printing 19,054.9 17,207.4 18,228.2 20,052.6 Publishing 6,904.7 8,525.2 6,326.3 7,267.5 607,972.5 496,562.6 482,007.2 511,216.0 3,401 2,484 2,304 3,595 3,255   % Chg from Year Ago 24.7% -10.4% -3.5% 40.8% 26.3% Single Family Units 1,916 1,745 1,989 2,627 2,382 1.8% 7.5% 7.1% 12.6% 6.8% 48 34 61 40 32 1,437 705 254 928 841 Use Tax New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units   % Chg from Year Ago 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District Total   % Chg from Year Ago Chapter 7 1,026 945 882 1,493 1,445 -5.1% 11.7% -14.5% -2.0% 2.6% 820 695 682 1,225 1,205 Chapter 11 15 17 11 4 10 Chapter 13 190 233 188 263 230 *EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona), Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax rate on gasoline (ADOR). **estimated by EBRC. ***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR). azeconomy.org | 7 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2012 Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics 2013 2014 2015 2016 Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC Population* 6,498.6 6,581.1 6,667.2 6,758.3 6,835.5 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 85.7 85.0 86.6 85.0 84.2 Birth Rate** 13.2 12.9 13.0 12.6 12.8 Residents Deaths 48.5 49.9 51.1 54.2 56.2 34.2 49.3 53.0 53.3 59.5   % Chg from Year Ago Resident Births Net Migration** *This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC feels this figure is more accurate. **Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 36,349.6 36,799.8 38,356.5 39,560.7 40,805.2 3.6% 1.2% 4.2% 3.1% 3.1% 48,170 49,070 50,083 51,002 2.9% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 236,220.3 242,181.5 255,731.8 267,361.1 Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC*   % Chg from Year Ago Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA**   % Chg from Year Ago Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA*** Total Personal Income   % Chg from Year Ago Earnings by place of work Less: Contributions for government social insurance 278,924.9 4.6% 2.5% 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% 158,853.5 165,510.0 172,673.2 180,699.2 190,186.0 16,540.0 19,323.9 19,999.4 20,974.3 22,008.6 Plus: Adjustment for residence 1,334.4 1,288.8 1,376.4 1,539.2 1,617.9 143,647.9 147,475.0 154,050.2 161,264.1 169,795.3 Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent 44,501.6 44,902.3 48,316.7 49,793.4 50,819.4 Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 48,070.8 49,804.2 53,365.0 56,303.6 58,310.2 119,041.4 122,681.9 127,830.5 134,025.2 141,253.8 Equals: Net earnings by place of residence Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA*** Total Wages and salaries   % Chg from Year Ago 4.7% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4% Supplements to wages and salaries 26,873.8 27,727.5 28,678.1 29,112.2 30,511.2 Proprietors' income 12,938.2 15,100.6 16,164.7 17,561.8 18,420.9 318.6 738.5 623.8 808.2 908.0 12,619.6 14,362.1 15,540.9 16,753.6 17,512.9 Farm Nonfarm *EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate. **Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. ***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component” Inflation and Prices - United States Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 244.16 244.46 243.75 244.16 U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seasonally adjusted), BLS All Urban Consumers: All Items   % Chg from Year Ago Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items   % Chg from Year Ago U.S. Producer Price Index for All Commodities (seas. adj.), BLS   % Chg from Year Ago 242.82 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 249.52 250.81 252.25 252.95 253.81 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 188.20 2.6% 190.60 4.4% 191.10 5.4% 191.30 5.1% 193.00 5.4% 8 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Travel and Tourism Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 Employment (000s, 12-month moving averages*), BLS Leisure and Hospitality 310.0 311.2 312.5 314.0 315.4   % Chg from Year Ago 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% Accommodation   % Chg from Year Ago 45.8 45.8 46.0 46.0 46.2 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 243,696.6 244,937.0 246,210.6 245,771.2 5.1% 6.4% 6.4% 5.7% Sales ($000s, accrual, 12-month moving average*), ADOR Hotel/Motel   % Chg from Year Ago Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (12-month moving averages*) Total Passengers   % Chg from Year Ago 3,615,294 3,615,717 3,611,831 3,610,569 3,619,066 -1.4% -1.5% -1.8% -2.0% -1.7% 273,805 274,667 275,124 277,303 279,926 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.9% 5.2% Tucson International Airport (12-month moving averages*) Total Passengers   % Chg from Year Ago *These data series are all quite volatile, thus the 12-month moving average yields more accurate information on trend. Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont. Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 International Border Crossings - Nogales District, Bureau of Transportation Statistics Pedestrians   % Chg from Year Ago Personal Vehicles   % Chg from Year Ago Personal Vehicle Passengers   % Chg from Year Ago Buses 571,170 567,787 550,338 645,141 663,625 8.7% 14.7% -5.1% 1.9% -2.2% 733,927 707,492 764,669 751,761 770,281 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% -1.0% 3.7% 1,396,210 1,307,610 1,425,482 1,399,858 1,504,678 -1.6% 0.4% 1.9% -1.8% 1.1% 1,122 1,009 1,092 1,133 1,217 -6.6% -0.8% -2.8% 6.9% 14.2% 19,232 13,878 14,419 16,047 19,434 1.8% 7.3% 3.9% 4.2% 24.0% Trucks 22,039 22,053 28,585 33,205 35,421   % Chg from Year Ago 12.9% 4.2% 5.6% 11.2% 7.8%   % Chg from Year Ago Bus Passengers   % Chg from Year Ago Trains   % Chg from Year Ago 62 59 50 57 63 -7.5% -3.3% -23.1% -1.7% 6.8% *Figures are totals of all Arizona border ports of entry (Nogales District): Douglas, Lukeville, Naco, Nogales, San Luis. Crossings are from Mexico into the United States. Park Visits, Arizona 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19,221.3 20,703.7 22,427.9 23,438.1 Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB Total Arizona   % Chg from Year Ago Northern Arizona   % Chg from Year Ago 19,030.6 -1.6% 1.0% 7.7% 8.3% 4.5% 16,552.4 16,626.2 18,027.4 19,531.4 20,419.6 -1.8% 0.4% 8.4% 8.3% 4.5% Historical 1,147.4 1,070.3 1,114.5 1,177.8 1,158.9 Scenic 6,369.7 6,521.0 6,933.8 7,670.8 7,838.9 Water-based 9,035.3 9,034.9 9,979.1 10,682.8 11,421.8 Southern Arizona 2,478.2 2,595.1 2,676.3 2,896.5 3,018.5   % Chg from Year Ago -0.2% 4.7% 3.1% 8.2% 4.2% Historical 382.2 359.4 384.8 425.4 434.1 1,729.7 1,869.3 1,903.1 2,059.9 2,160.9 366.3 366.4 388.4 411.2 423.4 Scenic Water-based azeconomy.org | 9 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 2,267.3 2,280.0 2,304.3 2,307.1 2,294.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS* Total Nonfarm Employment 2,032.6 1,990.9 2,013.0 2,017.3 2,023.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Construction 104.7 103.9 104.2 107.2 109.2 Manufacturing 122.2 121.6 121.9 121.0 121.5 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 403.4 391.0 387.9 387.9 387.4 35.8 35.4 35.8 35.9 36.3 Mining and Logging Information Financial Activities 180.0 179.5 181.2 181.6 182.0 Professional & Business Services 355.0 341.3 343.4 341.6 341.3 Education and Health Services 299.1 296.2 298.5 299.3 300.1 Leisure and Hospitality 221.4 221.0 227.7 232.0 233.6 62.6 60.9 61.9 61.9 61.9 245.2 236.9 247.3 245.7 246.9 25.25 25.90 26.38 25.97 26.56 Other Services Government Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS Sales ($ accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC 6,829,342,969 5,808,215,870 5,501,886,961 6,212,646,606 4,929,304,935 3,594,830,517 3,579,641,258 4,115,176,817 722 727 730 732 Restaurants and Bars 849,174,856 835,117,977 874,070,488 984,071,019 Gasoline, EBRC 329,288,842 651,149,990 318,431,192 381,025,063 87,861,216 85,447,836 94,049,745 113,046,469 112,808,510 178,339,498 235,584,078 287,522,409 2,064 2,614 1,971 2,449 2,367 1,546 1,649 1,635 1,716 1,582 7,154 6,028 6,547 9,304 8,819 281,840 282,593 287,079 289,417 292,124 Retail Sales Food Amusements Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Units Sold Average Price ($) *Go to www.azeconomy.org for a more detailed breakout of employment categories. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4,273,897 4,338,672 4,404,888 4,482,906 4,550,388 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 163,407,229 167,760,664 178,064,720 186,693,084 5.7% 2.7% 6.1% 4.9% 38,234 38,666 40,424 41,646 4.6% 1.1% 4.6% 3.0% 10 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Tucson MSA (Pima Co.)- Monthly Data Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 471,747.0 475,092.0 479,901.0 481,256.0 477,210.0 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS* Total Nonfarm Employment 379.3 372.7 375.9 378.2 378.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Construction 14.8 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 Manufacturing 23.4 23.2 23.9 23.5 23.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 61.4 60.0 59.2 59.1 59.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Mining and Logging Information Financial Activities 17.4 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 Professional and Business Services 50.0 48.5 49.3 49.1 49.0 Education and Health Services 65.4 65.1 65.2 65.6 65.6 Leisure and Hospitality 46.0 45.4 45.4 47.4 46.9 Other Services 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.3 Government 79.2 77.1 79.2 79.2 79.1 Sales ($ accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail , EBRC 1,318,226,462 1,121,715,313 1,069,174,568 1,188,356,417 Retail 929,342,813 Food, EBRC 158,129,577 Restaurants & Bars 160,017,032 70,737,040 140,461,885 Gasoline, EBRC 666,302,859 676,871,614 772,271,268 159,225,111 159,630,413 160,029,796 155,725,459 164,536,436 176,927,677 68,136,105 79,127,676 Amusements 10,883,603 7,326,905 10,512,797 14,220,471 Hotel/Motel 23,593,131 39,990,957 40,569,260 47,077,969 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family 205 167 216 276 223 183 152 204 224 218 Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Units Sold Average Price ($) 1,229 1,093 1,221 1,619 1,445 226,598 217,144 225,032 224,815 232,988 *Go to www.azeconomy.org for a more detailed breakout of employment categories. Tucson MSA (Pima Co.) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal income   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 990,380 996,046 1,007,162 1,009,371 1,013,103 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 35,985,709 36,453,218 37,893,093 38,922,402 3.6% 1.3% 4.0% 2.7% 36,335 36,598 37,624 38,561 3.1% 0.7% 2.8% 2.5% azeconomy.org | 11 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 73.7 73.9 74.3 75.0 75.1 6.0 6.4 6.1 5.6 4.9 66.4 64.5 65.3 65.8 67.1 47.0 45.1 45.6 46.0 47.2 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.3 18.38 18.83 18.72 18.69 18.47 122,763,823 87,918,196 92,917,681 106,698,097 26 17 17 33 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 134,313 135,695 139,372 141,602 142,560 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 2.7% 1.6% 4,939,175 5,130,228 5,449,838 5,705,476 0.4% 3.9% 6.2% 4.7% 36,773.6 37,807.1 39,102.8 40,292.3 0.3% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 79.7 81.0 81.8 81.8 81.7 5.9 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.5 48.5 47.8 48.5 48.6 49.0 41.0 40.3 40.8 40.9 41.3 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 21.66 21.79 21.45 21.88 22.49 165,266,080 127,848,352 135,837,208 150,108,520 57 70 73 87 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Annual Data Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 77,683 77,900 77,922 78,269 78,135 -0.2% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 5,291,048 5,422,848 5,743,703 6,040,669 2.3% 2.5% 5.9% 5.2% 26,055 26,636 28,155 29,364 1.0% 2.2% 5.7% 4.3% *EBRC considers the ADOA population estimates more accurate than official Census population estimates. **BEA “total personal income” divided by ADOA population estimate. 12 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 100.3 101.3 102.2 102.4 NA 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.5 NA 62.9 61.6 62.9 63.3 64.0 52.0 51.0 51.6 52.0 52.6 10.9 10.6 11.3 11.3 11.4 20.59 20.87 20.64 20.48 20.31 127,626,708 143,983,822 161,113,659 181,384,201 331 74 98 121 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 211,583 213,294 215,357 217,778 220,189 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 6,623,513 6,936,360 7,491,508 7,900,004 3.7% 4.7% 8.0% 5.5% 31,305 32,520 34,786 36,275 3.5% 3.9% 7.0% 4.3% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 50.0 50.6 50.6 51.3 50.8 5.3 5.9 5.8 5.3 5.2 34.6 34.1 34.3 34.4 34.4 Private 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.0 23.0 Government 11.6 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.4 19.24 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 19.74 19.78 19.15 18.95 80,236,485 58,432,074 61,396,825 70,833,641 57 70 73 87 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000)   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)**   % Chg from Year Ago 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 50,908 51,269 51,104 50,914 50,705 -0.4% 0.0% 0.7% -0.3% -0.4% 4,648,859 4,591,143 4,677,975 4,821,097 -2.2% -1.2% 1.9% 3.1% 35,555 35,072 36,088 37,340 -2.3% -1.4% 2.9% 3.5% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. azeconomy.org | 13 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data Dec 2016 Jan 2017 92.9 15.1 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 94.6 92.1 96.2 96.6 14.4 13.6 12.8 16.3 56.1 56.1 56.5 56.5 55.9 41.3 41.5 41.8 41.8 41.1 14.8 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 19.26 19.27 19.17 19.34 19.17 173,723,606 129,832,292 137,398,427 152,512,685 Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 83 60 58 92 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 61,500 63,007 63,718 64,180 64,018 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% -0.3% 5,593,053 5,926,507 5,954,316 6,449,702   % Chg from Year Ago -0.9% 6.0% 0.5% 8.3% Per Capita Personal Income ($)** 27,260 28,313 28,085 30,000   % Chg from Year Ago -3.2% 3.9% -0.8% 6.8% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics Co.: County ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 inhabitants. EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona. U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation NPS: National Parks Service 14 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 19.6 20.2 19.9 20.1 19.7 Unemployment Rate 10.7 11.7 11.5 10.5 9.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.5 17.6 Apache County Summary - Monthly Private Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.3 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.2 10,501,192 8,866,202 8,564,158 8,976,061 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.0 6.5 7.0 6.7 6.1 5.8 14.6 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.7 Private 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 Government 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 30,166,689 21,462,904 23,824,091 26,201,754 8 10 11 19 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Graham County Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 14.4 14.1 14.6 14.7 14.6 Unemployment Rate 5.7 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.4 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 8.8 8.3 8.7 8.7 8.8 Private 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 3.2 Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.2 23,957,276 18,951,179 18,887,278 21,974,603 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 Unemployment Rate 6.0 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.2 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 Private 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 0.6 Greenlee County Summary - Monthly Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 9,491,856 12,315,258 7,419,620 9,487,750 Apr 2017 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. azeconomy.org | 15 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 8.4 8.8 8.6 9.2 8.9 Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.7 5.7 4.8 4.8 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 Private 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.2 La Paz County Summary - Monthly Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 13,693,024 21,195,222 14,085,289 12,415,487 Apr 2017 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 40.9 41.0 41.3 41.9 42.2 7.7 8.5 8.2 7.4 6.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 28.0 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.7 Private 18.5 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.2 9.5 Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 9.4 9.0 9.4 9.2 81,636,510 64,265,157 65,516,241 73,043,472 7 5 10 24 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.1 8.6 8.8 8.2 7.8 7.2 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 Private 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 Government 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 37,603,062 23,899,378 25,507,692 29,830,415 7 2 5 9 Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. 16 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona June, 2017 Summer Issue KEEPING CURRENT Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller College of Management. 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Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC) at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBRC Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the people of Arizona and the nation, EBRC is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic forecasts and analysis. Copyright © 2016 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The University of Arizona. 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