SPRING 2017 ISSUE

Arizona’s Economy Catches a Winter
Chill: First Quarter Update
By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBRC Director and Research Professor
April 1, 2017

T

he Arizona economy slowed
during the fourth quarter of
2016, with jobs rising very
little over the year. Job growth
was down from third quarter
performance and even slower than
national gains. New population
estimates from the Arizona Office
of Economic Opportunity suggest
continued slow population increases
statewide and in the Phoenix and
Tucson metropolitan statistical
areas (MSAs). Further, Arizona’s
merchandise exports to the world
(and to Mexico) declined last year.
Overall, Arizona’s economy
continues to expand and prospects
for somewhat stronger growth
are on the horizon. A modest
acceleration of the U.S. economy

will help drive stronger growth statewide during the next two years, but
it is important to keep the risks in
mind at this point. There is currently
a high degree of uncertainty
surrounding federal tax, trade,
immigration and regulatory policy.
Further, there is uncertainty about
the ultimate impact of Arizona’s new
minimum wage requirements. As
this uncertainty gradually clears in
coming months and years, we will
have a better idea of the possible
impacts. Stay tuned.

Arizona Recent
Developments
The Arizona Office of Economic
Opportunity released population
estimates for 2016 late last year.
The data for Arizona show continued
slow growth, with a net population
increase of 77,300 residents in 2016.
That translated into 1.1% growth,
which was above the national rate
of 0.7%, but below the state’s pace
in 2015 of 1.4% (Exhibit 1). During
the 30 years before the Great
Recession, Arizona’s population
growth averaged 3.2% per year.
Population gains were sluggish
for both Phoenix MSA and Tucson

In This Issue
Arizona’s Economy Catches
a Winter Chill: First Quarter
Forecast Update..................1
Forecast Tables...................7
Arizona Economic Indicators:
State.................................8
Arizona Economic Indicators:
Metro Areas......................12
Arizona Economic Indicators:
Counties..........................17

Exhibit 1: Arizona’s Population is Increasing Slowly
Annual Growth Rates
Arizona, Phoenix MSA, Tucson MSA

percent

4

Arizona
Phoenix MSA
Tucson MSA

3
2
1
0

U. S.
Arizona

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona

“The U.S. dollar
surged upward in
the fourth quarter
against many
currencies...since
June 2014, the
dollar has risen
24.8% against major
currencies and
against the broad
index.”

MSA. Population increased by
67,500 last year in Phoenix MSA,
accounting for 87.3% of state
growth. Phoenix MSA population
growth decelerated from 1.8%
in 2015 to 1.5% last year. That
was well above the national pace,
but during the 30 years before
the Great Recession, the Phoenix
MSA averaged much faster
population growth of 3.6% per
year. In contrast, population gains
in the Tucson MSA accelerated
slightly last year, rising from
0.2% in 2015 to 0.4% in 2016.
Overall, the Tucson MSA added
3,700 residents, which accounted
for 4.8% of state gains. Tucson
growth remained below the
national average and well below
average population growth during
the 30 years before the Great
Recession of 2.4% per year.
International developments
continue to impact the state.
The U.S. dollar surged upward
in the fourth quarter against
many currencies. Over the year
in December 2016, the dollar was
up 1.6% against major currencies
and 4.5% against a more broadly
based index that includes the

currencies of developing countries.
This continues a trend that began
around the middle of 2014.
Indeed, since June 2014, the dollar
has risen 24.8% against major
currencies and against the broad
index.
When the U.S. dollar appreciates,
it puts downward pressure on U.S.
exports (and upward pressure on
imports), other things the same.
U.S. nominal exports of goods
declined 7.4% in 2015 and 2.9% in
2016. Arizona exports are exposed
to the same pressure. After rising
6.6% in 2015, state exports
declined 2.8% last year.
As Exhibit 2 shows, Arizona
merchandise exports to Mexico
declined 9.2% last year. This is
key because Mexico is by far the
state’s most important export
destination. In 2016, Mexico
accounted for 37.8% of Arizona
merchandise exports. Canada
was the next largest destination,
accounting for 9.4% of state
exports. Thus, state exports to
NAFTA countries accounted for
47.2% of the total. Arizona exports
go all over the world, 29.8% to
Asia, 17.7% to Europe, and 5.3%

2 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

-1

April, 2017 Spring Issue

Exhibit 2: Arizona Merchandise Exports to Mexico Declined Last Year
Arizona Exports to Mexico
Annual Growth Rate by Country & Region

-9.2

Mexico

Total Exports
2014-2015: +6.6%
2015-2016: -2.8%

6.2
-9.9

Canada

2.2
18.1

Asia

5.9
-10.3

Europe

11.8
2015 - 2016
2014 - 2015

-9.4

Rest of World

4.5
-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona

to all other countries combined.
State exports to Canada, Europe,
and the rest of the world also fell
last year. Asia was the only export
destination to post growth, driven
largely by a surge in exports to
South Korea.
One key reason why Arizona’s
exports to Mexico fell last year
was the major appreciation of the
U.S. dollar versus the Mexican
peso. Indeed, since June 2014,
the dollar has risen by 57.8%
against the peso. In contrast, the
U.S. dollar is up 23.2% against
the Canadian dollar. With the
major rise of the dollar versus
the peso, it makes sense that
state exports would be adversely
affected. However, state export
performance was uneven across
industries. Exports of computers
and electronic components, as
well as transportation equipment,
increased. These are the state’s
two largest export sectors.
Playing an important role in the
overall decline was a major drop
in mineral and ore exports (down

30.9%). Exports of non-electrical
machinery and chemicals also
declined last year.
Recent political events have
put further upward pressure
on the U.S. dollar versus
the Mexican peso. Since the
election, the exchange rate
has hovered between 20.0
and 22.0 pesos per dollar. The
impact of recent statements
by the new administration on
NAFTA, immigration, and trade
policy in general have increased
uncertainty on both sides of the
border. While the imposition of
a unilateral tariff on Mexican
goods crossing the border would
hurt Arizona exports, this differs
from proposals to impose a
border adjustment. The border
adjustment is part of a proposed
overhaul of the U.S. tax system
that would also affect U.S. export
performance and the value of
the U.S. dollar. Many economists
expect the overall plan to have
little impact on the trade deficit.
The devil is in the details, however,

“Arizona merchandise
exports to Mexico
declined 9.2% last
year. This is key
because Mexico is by
far the state’s most
important export
destination”

azeconomy.org | 3

Exhibit 3: Arizona Outlook Summary 2017q1
Actual*
2016

Forecast
2017

2018

2019

Growth Rate
Nonfarm Jobs

1.8

2.4

2.8

2.4

Personal Income

3.7

5.9

6.0

5.7

Retail Sales Less Food

3.1

3.3

5.3

4.9

Population

1.1

1.6

1.8

1.8

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.3

35,839

40,275

44,371

45,108

Level
Unempl. Rate
Housing Permits

*Personal income, sales, and housing permit data are forecast.

and we will have to keep a close
eye on how federal tax and trade
policy evolve.

Arizona Outlook

“From 2018 through
the end of the
forecast period, job
growth gradually
decelerates,
reflecting the impact
of the current
demographic shift
(large numbers
of baby boomers
retiring).”

near term, rising to rates similar to
past history. If this does not occur,
the U.S. economy will post slower
real GDP growth and likely faster
inflation.

The state outlook depends in
part on future national economic
performance. The national forecast
calls for continued growth, which
accelerates in the near term and
then tapers off as time passes and
demographic forces slow gains.

On the international front, the U.S.
dollar is expected to rise by an
additional 5.3% in 2017, against a
broad market basket of currencies,
before stabilizing in 2018 and then
gradually depreciating during the
next three years.

The forecast calls for real GDP
growth to accelerate from 1.6%
in 2016 to 2.3% in 2017 and again
to 2.6% in 2018. Stronger growth
in 2017 is related to easing of the
inventory correction and stronger
energy sector investment. A
policy-related boost to growth
is expected in 2017-2018, as
tax cuts, increased government
spending, and deregulation spur
gains. Thereafter, real GDP growth
decelerates to just below 2.0%
per year by 2026. In contrast,
job growth gradually decelerates
as the aging of the baby boom
generation drives down labor force
gains.

Continued national growth sets the
stage for Arizona gains during the
forecast. The state is forecast to
continue adding jobs, residents,
and income at a pace above the
national average. However, growth
is expected to remain well below
average rates during the 30 years
before the Great Recession.

One key force driving economic
growth is productivity. U.S.
productivity gains have been
sluggish since the end of the Great
Recession. The forecast calls for
productivity to accelerate in the

Personal income follows the same
basic trend as employment,
although the strong acceleration
in 2017 is driven in part by the
large increase in the statemandated minimum wage. The

As Exhibit 3 shows, job growth is
forecast to rise from 1.8% in 2016
to 2.4% this year, then to 2.8% in
2018. From 2018 through the end
of the forecast period, job growth
gradually decelerates, reflecting
the impact of the current
demographic shift (large numbers
of baby boomers retiring).

4 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

minimum wage rose from $8.05/
hour in 2016 to $10.00/hour in
2017. It is scheduled to rise to
$10.50/hour in 2018, then to
$11.00/hour in 2019, and finally to
$12.00/hour in 2020. Thereafter
it rises with inflation. The broader
impacts of the minimum wage
increase on employment, profits,

and prices are uncertain at this
point. Past research (on much
smaller changes to the minimum
wage) suggest modest negative
employment impacts and modest
increases in price levels.

“The state is forecast to continue adding jobs, residents, and
income at a pace above the national average.”

azeconomy.org | 5

KEEPING CURRENT
Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly by the Economic and Business
Research Center in the Eller College of Management. For continuous
updates of Arizona’s economic indicators, check out our website’s
Indicators page: www.azeconomy.org/data/economic-indicators/
There you can browse indicators by geography or topic and graph each
series by clicking on the series title.

SUBSCRIBE
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6 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

FORECAST TABLES
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

267,361

277,338

293,788

311,443

329,042

348,725

4.5%

3.7%

5.9%

6.0%

5.7%

6.0%

92,646

94,835

98,734

103,953

109,291

115,104

4.7%

2.4%

4.1%

5.3%

5.1%

5.3%

2,634.6

2,682.3

2,747.8

2,825.8

2,894.2

2,969.2

2.5%

1.8%

2.4%

2.8%

2.4%

2.6%

6,758.3

6,835.5

6,943.0

7,064.6

7,188.6

7,313.7

1.4%

1.1%

1.6%

1.8%

1.8%

1.7%

28,910

35,839

40,275

44,371

45,108

45,534

7.1%

24.0%

12.4%

10.2%

1.7%

0.9%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

186,693

194,774

206,243

220,362

235,537

251,061

4.9%

4.3%

5.9%

6.9%

6.9%

6.6%

Retail Sales ($ mil)

65,101

67,180

70,721

74,847

79,598

83,964

  % Chg from Prior

5.1%

3.2%

5.3%

5.8%

6.3%

5.5%

1,912.7

1,954.0

2,010.1

2,077.4

2,144.3

2,206.3

3.2%

2.2%

2.9%

3.3%

3.2%

2.9%

4,482.9

4,550.4

4,636.3

4,727.7

4,821.2

4,915.5

1.8%

1.5%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

22,402

29,207

30,584

33,236

34,242

33,963

10.1%

30.4%

4.7%

8.7%

3.0%

-0.8%

Residential Building Permits (units)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Building Permits (units)
  % Chg from Prior
Tucson MSA
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($ mil)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

38,922

40,266

42,115

44,233

46,522

48,858

2.7%

3.5%

4.6%

5.0%

5.2%

5.0%

12,943

13,183

13,642

14,111

14,768

15,381

  % Chg from Year Ago

3.1%

1.9%

3.5%

3.4%

4.7%

4.2%

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)

367.4

370.5

376.8

384.4

391.9

399.1

  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates

0.6%

0.8%

1.7%

2.0%

2.0%

1.8%

1,009.4

1,013.1

1,021.7

1,032.0

1,042.3

1,052.6

  % Chg from Year Ago

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

Residential Permits (units)

2,428

3,048

3,679

3,874

4,025

4,026

-25.3%

25.5%

20.7%

5.3%

3.9%

0.0%

  % Chg from Year Ago

Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of
becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization
to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as quarterly forecast
update meetings.
Contact George Hammond: ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 520.626.1679
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research
Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are
recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states.

azeconomy.org | 7

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force
  % Chg from Year Ago
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate

3,253.3

3,257.5

3,260.5

3,277.8

3,302.2

2.2%

2.1%

1.9%

2.2%

2.7%

3,089.8

3,094.8

3,098.5

3,114.2

3,134.2

163.5

162.7

162.0

163.6

168.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

2,731.2

2,739.1

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS
Total
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Private
  % Chg from Year Ago
Goods Producing
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Service Providing
Private Service Providing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Utilities
Information
Finance and Insurance

2,731.0

2,728.2

2,735.4

2.6%

2.3%

2.6%

2.2%

2.2%

2,318.8

2,316.4

2,323.7

2,320.6

2,328.0

3.0%

2.7%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

306.5

306.2

309.3

309.1

310.5

11.4

11.3

11.5

11.5

11.8

135.4

134.5

136.4

135.7

135.6

159.7

160.4

161.4

161.9

163.1

120.5

121.0

122.3

122.5

123.1

38.1

38.2

37.9

2,424.5

2,422.0

2,426.1

2,422.1

2,428.6

2,012.3

2,010.2

2,014.4

2,011.5

2,017.5

93.9

93.7

93.1

94.3

95.1

331.0

330.7

331.2

329.9

329.2

95.6

95.7

95.8

95.4

95.3

46.1

45.1

44.7

44.6

44.6

155.3

155.1

154.6

156.7

157.3

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

50.9

51.3

51.3

50.8

51.5

Professional and Business Services

419.1

419.3

420.3

416.7

418.5

141.2

140.3

140.1

140.5

142.9

32.4

32.5

32.4

32.0

32.3

245.5

246.5

247.8

244.2

243.3

Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
Administrative and Support
Waste Management and Remediation
Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Government
  % Chg from Year Ago
Federal Government

59.2

58.7

59.4

59.0

59.4

355.2

356.1

357.8

358.3

360.5

42.2

42.1

42.3

41.7

40.6

274.1

275.0

276.0

277.5

279.2

89.7

87.4

87.9

86.6

86.3

412.2

411.8

411.7

410.6

411.1

0.5%

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

55.6

55.4

55.5

55.4

55.4

State Government

86.6

86.7

87.0

86.9

86.9

Local Government

270.0

269.7

269.2

268.3

268.8

8 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

24.06

24.71

24.72

Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS
Total Private
  % Chg from Year Ago

24.44

24.32

4.9%

3.6%

3.4%

4.9%

4.3%

25.26

25.47

25.72

25.82

26.17

Manufacturing

24.11

23.73

23.65

24.30

24.26

Financial Activities

28.84

29.10

27.96

28.55

28.81

Construction

Professional and Business Services

26.51

26.00

25.84

26.83

26.97

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

23.43

23.09

22.34

23.54

23.36

Education and Health Services

25.55

25.49

26.25

25.73

25.69

Leisure and Hospitality

14.26

14.39

14.36

14.98

15.09

7,711,551.6

8,062,344.0

9,587,776.2

8,238,656.7

Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC*
  % Chg from Year Ago

2.2%

3.0%

5.5%

11.4%

Retail Sales

5,004,968.2

5,401,293.8

6,801,712.1

4,975,045.1

Food, EBRC**

1,070,708.5

1,090,728.2

1,105,079.3

1,110,518.8

Restaurants & Bars

1,107,729.7

1,056,997.0

1,164,884.6

1,134,157.7

Gasoline, EBRC***

523,759.3

513,324.9

516,100.3

1,018,935.1

Gallons, ADOT

245,665.7

237,870.7

246,231.1

465,479.7

Utilities

850,384.4

712,278.8

667,783.9

723,424.6

Communications

167,520.8

160,119.3

164,471.5

170,308.9

Amusements

104,399.8

103,351.0

115,473.2

104,502.0

Rentals Personal Property

266,183.6

285,850.2

338,837.6

321,454.0

Contracting

852,643.9

813,862.0

951,015.6

769,125.8

Hotel/Motel

257,516.7

230,363.7

187,828.6

263,850.4

Mining, Oil, & Gas Production

11,911.1

9,185.6

13,176.0

10,481.0

Mining Severance

50,385.6

66,116.2

68,988.8

58,379.3

Printing

20,618.4

24,644.0

19,054.9

17,207.4

7,701.8

7,620.3

6,904.7

8,525.2

502,684.6

469,971.6

607,972.5

496,562.6

Publishing
Use Tax
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
  % Chg from Year Ago
Single Family Units
  % Chg from Year Ago

2,174

2,958

3,401

2,484

2,304

-16.9%

38.9%

24.7%

-10.4%

-3.5%

1,899

1,791

1,916

1,745

1,989

2.0%

16.0%

1.8%

7.5%

7.1%

2-4 Unit Structures

27

16

48

34

61

248

1,151

1,437

705

254

1,247

1,084

1,026

945

-12.6%

-11.4%

-5.1%

11.7%

1,011

849

820

695

5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District
Total
  % Chg from Year Ago
Chapter 7
Chapter 11

10

13

15

17

Chapter 13

225

222

190

233

*EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona),
Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax
rate on gasoline (ADOR).
**estimated by EBRC.
***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR).

azeconomy.org | 9

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2012

Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics

2013

2014

2015

2016

Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC
Population*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Resident Births

6,498.6

6,581.1

6,667.2

6,758.3

6,835.5

0.9%

1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

1.1%

85.7

85.0

86.6

85.0

85.5

Birth Rate**

13.2

12.9

13.0

12.6

12.7

Residents Deaths

48.5

49.9

51.1

54.2

56.0

34.2

49.3

53.0

53.3

63.0

Net Migration**

*This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC
feels this figure is more accurate.
**Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services.
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

35,078.1

36,349.6

36,799.8

38,356.5

39,560.7

4.4%

3.6%

1.2%

4.2%

3.1%

46,794

48,170

49,070

50,083

51,002

2.3%

2.9%

1.9%

2.1%

1.8%

225,838.9

236,220.3

242,181.5

255,731.8

267,361.1

5.0%

4.6%

2.5%

5.6%

4.5%

151,754.7

158,853.5

165,510.0

172,673.2

180,699.2

15,992.4

16,540.0

19,323.9

19,999.4

20,974.3

1,243.5

1,334.4

1,288.8

1,376.4

1,539.2

Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA**
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA***
Total Personal Income
  % Chg from Year Ago
Earnings by place of work
Less: Contributions for government social
insurance
Plus: Adjustment for residence
Equals: Net earnings by place of residence

137,005.9

143,647.9

147,475.0

154,050.2

161,264.1

Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent

40,510.1

44,501.6

44,902.3

48,316.7

49,793.4

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts

48,322.9

48,070.8

49,804.2

53,365.0

56,303.6

113,662.6

119,041.4

122,681.9

127,830.5

134,025.2

4.0%

4.7%

3.1%

4.2%

4.8%

Supplements to wages and salaries

26,527.3

26,873.8

27,727.5

28,678.1

29,112.2

Proprietors' income

11,564.8

12,938.2

15,100.6

16,164.7

17,561.8

Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA***
Total Wages and salaries
  % Chg from Year Ago

Farm
Nonfarm

542.8

318.6

738.5

623.8

808.2

11,022.0

12,619.6

14,362.1

15,540.9

16,753.6

*EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from
ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate.
**Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of
three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income.
***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component”
Inflation and Prices - United States

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

241.69

242.20

242.82

244.16

244.46

1.6%

1.7%

2.1%

2.5%

2.8%

249.90

249.45

249.52

250.81

252.25

2.3%

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

3.0%

186.70
-0.4%

186.40
0.4%

188.30
2.6%

190.60
4.4%

191.10
5.4%

U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seasonally adjusted), BLS
All Urban Consumers: All Items
  % Chg from Year Ago
Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items
  % Chg from Year Ago
U.S. Producer Price Index for All Commodities
(seas. adj.), BLS
  % Chg from Year Ago

10 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Travel and Tourism

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

Employment (000s, 12-month moving averages*), BLS
Leisure and Hospitality

307.5

308.7

310.0

311.2

312.4

  % Chg from Year Ago

3.5%

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

3.9%

45.6

45.7

45.8

45.8

45.9

1.0%

1.1%

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

241,299.8

242,806.0

243,696.6

244,937.0

5.1%

4.9%

5.1%

6.4%

Accommodation
  % Chg from Year Ago

Sales ($000s, accrual, 12-month moving average*), ADOR
Hotel/Motel
  % Chg from Year Ago

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (12-month moving averages*)
Total Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago

3,618,359.9

3,619,743.0

3,615,294.0

3,615,716.7

-1.1%

-1.3%

-1.4%

-1.5%

270,358.8

272,282.2

273,804.5

274,667.2

275,123.8

2.2%

2.9%

3.4%

3.3%

3.1%

Tucson International Airport (12-month moving averages*)
Total Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago

*These data series are all quite volatile, thus the 12-month moving average yields more accurate information on trend.
Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont.

Aug 2016

Sep 2016

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

645,141

663,625

International Border Crossings - Nogales District, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Pedestrians
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Vehicles
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Vehicle Passengers

571,170

567,787

550,338

8.7%

14.7%

-5.1%

1.9%

-2.2%

733,927

707,492

764,669

751,761

770,281

1.4%

1.9%

2.2%

-1.0%

3.7%

1,396,210

1,307,610

1,425,482

1,399,858

1,504,678

  % Chg from Year Ago

-1.6%

0.4%

1.9%

-1.8%

1.1%

Buses

1,122

1,009

1,092

1,133

1,217

  % Chg from Year Ago
Bus Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago

-6.6%

-0.8%

-2.8%

6.9%

14.2%

19,232

13,878

14,419

16,047

19,434

1.8%

7.3%

3.9%

4.2%

24.0%

Trucks

22,039

22,053

28,585

33,205

35,421

  % Chg from Year Ago

12.9%

4.2%

5.6%

11.2%

7.8%

62

59

50

57

63

-7.5%

-3.3%

-23.1%

-1.7%

6.8%

Trains
  % Chg from Year Ago

*Figures are totals of all Arizona border ports of entry (Nogales District): Douglas, Lukeville, Naco, Nogales, San Luis.
Crossings are from Mexico into the United States.
Park Visits, Arizona

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

19,030.6

19,221.3

20,703.7

22,427.9

23,438.1

-1.6%

1.0%

7.7%

8.3%

4.5%

16,552.4

16,626.2

18,027.4

19,531.4

20,419.6

-1.8%

0.4%

8.4%

8.3%

4.5%
1,158.9

Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB
Total Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Northern Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Historical

1,147.4

1,070.3

1,114.5

1,177.8

Scenic

6,369.7

6,521.0

6,933.8

7,670.8

7,838.9

Water-based

9,035.3

9,034.9

9,979.1

10,682.8

11,421.8

Southern Arizona

2,478.2

2,595.1

2,676.3

2,896.5

3,018.5

-0.2%

4.7%

3.1%

8.2%

4.2%

  % Chg from Year Ago
Historical
Scenic
Water-based

382.2

359.4

384.8

425.4

434.1

1,729.7

1,869.3

1,903.1

2,059.9

2,160.9

366.3

366.4

388.4

411.2

423.4

azeconomy.org | 11

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

2,246.4

2,252.2

2,251.9

2,279.3

4.5

4.1

4.1

4.5

Feb 2017

Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS*
Total Nonfarm Employment

2,008.5

2,023.4

2,032.6

1,990.9

2,010.7

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

Construction

107.3

104.2

104.7

103.9

104.4

Manufacturing

120.0

120.9

122.2

121.6

122.1

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

391.4

402.8

403.4

391.0

387.6

Mining and Logging

Information

36.3

36.0

35.8

35.4

35.9

Financial Activities

178.7

179.2

180.0

179.5

180.7

Professional & Business Services

344.8

349.9

355.0

341.3

343.0

Education and Health Services

297.3

297.0

299.1

296.2

298.7

Leisure and Hospitality

218.7

220.8

221.4

221.0

225.8

63.7

61.9

62.6

60.9

61.9

Other Services
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS

247.0

247.5

245.2

236.9

247.4

25.76

25.61

25.25

25.90

26.01

Sales ($ accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC

5,451,744,577 5,681,646,880

6,830,518,813 5,808,215,870

3,582,880,362

3,857,048,509

4,929,304,935

3,594,830,517

717

719

722

727

Restaurants and Bars

794,028,388

777,264,251

849,174,856

835,117,977

Gasoline, EBRC

335,016,485

328,257,832

330,464,685

651,149,990

Retail Sales
Food

Amusements
Hotel/Motel

79,434,782

82,911,710

87,861,216

85,447,836

151,970,536

151,445,471

112,808,510

178,339,498

New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

2,056

3,407

2,081

2,610

1,958

1,579

2,042

1,546

1,645

1,630

Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Units Sold
Average Price ($)

7,102

6,911

7,154

6,028

6,547

284,339

280,905

281,840

282,593

287,079

*Go to www.azeconomy.org for a more detailed breakout of employment categories.
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

4,273,897

4,338,672

4,404,888

4,482,906

4,550,388

1.1%

1.5%

1.5%

1.8%

1.5%

163,407,229

167,760,664

178,064,720

186,693,084

5.7%

2.7%

6.1%

4.9%

38,234

38,666

40,424

41,646

4.6%

1.1%

4.6%

3.0%

12 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Tucson MSA (Pima Co.)- Monthly Data

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

479,287.0

480,858.0

476,574.0

475,201.0

4.8

4.4

4.3

4.8

Feb 2017

Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS*
Total Nonfarm Employment
Mining and Logging

380.3

381.3

379.3

372.7

376.4

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Construction

15.2

15.0

14.8

14.6

14.8

Manufacturing

23.4

23.5

23.4

23.2

23.9

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

60.0

61.4

61.4

60.0

59.1

Information

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Financial Activities

17.4

17.4

17.4

17.2

17.3

Professional and Business Services

52.2

51.1

50.0

48.5

49.2

Education and Health Services

65.4

65.7

65.4

65.1

65.5

Leisure and Hospitality

45.1

45.5

46.0

45.4

45.7

Other Services

15.3

15.3

15.1

15.0

15.1

Government

79.7

79.8

79.2

77.1

79.2

1,048,975,614 1,108,449,292 1,318,278,717

1,121,715,313

Sales ($ accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail , EBRC
Retail

666,341,274

741,583,579

929,342,813

666,302,859

Food, EBRC

157,375,511

157,741,147

158,129,577

159,225,111

Restaurants & Bars

153,229,789

138,696,164

160,017,032

155,725,459

71,492,467

70,428,402

70,789,296

140,461,885

9,314,185

8,829,821

10,883,603

7,326,905

29,502,287

24,513,469

23,593,131

39,990,957

200

178

205

167

216

178

157

183

152

204

1,259

1,266

1,229

1,093

1,221

216,902

217,447

226,598

217,144

225,032

Gasoline, EBRC
Amusements
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Units Sold
Average Price ($)

*Go to https://www.azeconomy.org/ for a more detailed breakout of employment categories.
Tucson MSA (Pima Co.) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal income
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

990,380

996,046

1,007,162

1,009,371

1,013,103

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

0.2%

0.4%

35,985,709

36,453,218

37,893,093

38,922,402

3.6%

1.3%

4.0%

2.7%

36,335

36,598

37,624

38,561

3.1%

0.7%

2.8%

2.5%

azeconomy.org | 13

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

75.6

74.5

73.3

73.9

Feb 2017

5.7

5.5

6.0

6.4

68.8

67.8

66.4

64.5

65.4

Private

48.1

47.3

47.0

45.1

45.6

Government

17.9

17.8

16.8

16.9

17.3

18.60

19.15

18.38

18.83

18.69

111,696,082 104,346,075 122,763,823

87,918,196

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

64

31

26

17

17

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

134,313

135,695

139,372

141,602

142,560

0.1%

1.0%

2.7%

1.6%

0.7%

4,939,175

5,130,228

5,449,838

5,705,476

0.4%

3.9%

6.2%

4.7%

36,773.6

37,807.1

39,102.8

40,292.3

0.3%

2.8%

3.4%

3.0%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.
Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave
County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

79.8

80.0

78.7

80.7

6.3

5.8

6.0

6.6

48.6

49.2

48.5

47.8

49.2

40.9

41.4

41.0

40.3

41.5

7.7

7.8

7.5

7.5

7.7

20.96

21.54

21.66

21.79

20.96

128,579,962 139,948,912 165,266,080

127,848,352

53

58

57

70

73

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County)
- Annual Data
Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

77,683

77,900

77,922

78,269

78,135

2.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.5%

-0.2%

5,291,048

5,422,848

5,743,703

6,040,669

2.3%

2.5%

5.9%

5.2%

26,055

26,636

28,155

29,364

1.0%

2.2%

5.7%

4.3%

*EBRC considers the ADOA population estimates more accurate than official Census population estimates.
**BEA “total personal income” divided by ADOA population estimate.

14 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

103.4

103.8

104.5

101.6

Feb 2017

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.7

63.5

63.3

62.9

61.6

Private

52.4

52.2

52.0

51.0

51.4

Government

11.1

11.1

10.9

10.6

11.3

20.05

20.27

20.59

20.87

20.49

146,793,969 156,078,120 181,384,201

127,626,708

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

91

91

62.7

331

74

98

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

211,583

213,294

215,357

217,778

220,189

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

1.1%

6,623,513

6,936,360

7,491,508

7,900,004

3.7%

4.7%

8.0%

5.5%

31,305

32,520

34,786

36,275

3.5%

3.9%

7.0%

4.3%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.
Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

50.0

49.9

49.9

50.7

Feb 2017

5.9

5.5

5.4

5.9

34.3

34.7

34.6

34.1

34.3

22.7

23.1

23.0

22.8

22.8

11.6

11.6

11.6

11.3

11.5

20.98

19.92

19.74

19.78

19.16

64,175,109

66,698,315

80,236,485

58,432,074

53

58

57

70

73

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($)**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

50,908

51,269

51,104

50,914

50,705

0.0%

0.7%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.4%

4,648,859

4,591,143

4,677,975

4,821,097

-2.2%

-1.2%

1.9%

3.1%

35,555

35,072

36,088

37,340

-2.3%

-1.4%

2.9%

3.5%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

azeconomy.org | 15

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

94.9

91.2

91.8

94.9

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Feb 2017

19.4

16.7

15.3

14.3

55.0

55.5

56.1

56.1

Private

40.2

40.7

41.3

41.5

41.6

Government

14.8

14.8

14.8

14.6

14.8

18.88

18.57

19.26

19.27

19.21

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

56.4

124,942,336 145,308,656 173,723,606 129,832,292

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

72

44

83

60

58

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

61,500

63,007

63,718

64,180

64,018
-0.3%

1.6%

2.5%

1.1%

0.7%

5,593,053

5,926,507

5,954,316

6,449,702

  % Chg from Year Ago

-0.9%

6.0%

0.5%

8.3%

Per Capita Personal Income ($)**

27,260

28,313

28,085

30,000

  % Chg from Year Ago

-3.2%

3.9%

-0.8%

6.8%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of
Employment and Population Statistics

Co.: County

ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation

MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one
core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.

ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport

ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board

SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce

TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor

USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have
at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less
than 50,000 inhabitants.

EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The
University of Arizona.

U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona

BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation
NPS: National Parks Service

16 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2017 Spring Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES
Sep 2016

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

20.9

20.4

20.3

20.3

20.2

Unemployment Rate

11.1

11.0

10.1

10.4

11.7

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

17.9

17.5

17.6

17.6

17.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.2

Apache County Summary - Monthly

Private
Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

10.4

10.0

10.2

10.2

10.3

11,689,439

9,188,093

10,075,541

10,501,192

8,866,202

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA)
Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA
Private
Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Sep 2016

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

21.0

20.8

20.5

20.5

20.9

7.3

7.1

6.6

6.6

7.0

14.8

14.7

14.7

14.6

14.4

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

25,693,008

25,883,389

26,187,108

30,166,689

21,462,904

6

12

11

8

10

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Sep 2016

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

14.8

14.9

14.7

14.7

14.1

Unemployment Rate

6.5

6.2

5.6

5.6

6.7

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

8.8

8.8

8.8

8.8

8.3

Graham County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

Private

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

Government

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

2.8

16,042,047

18,196,137

21,173,009

23,957,276

18,951,179

Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Greenlee County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

Sep 2016

Oct 2016

Nov 2016

Dec 2016

Jan 2017

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

Unemployment Rate

7.4

6.7

6.0

6.0

6.4

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

Private

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

Government

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

10,071,645

8,618,531

9,230,250

9,491,856

12,315,258

Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

azeconomy.org | 17

April, 2017 Spring Issue

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George W. Hammond, Ph. D.
Director and Research Professor
(520) 626-1679
ghammond@eller.arizona.edu

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