2017 ISSUE WINTER 2016 Arizona’s Economy Passes Through Summer Showers By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Director and Research Professor December 1, 2016 service-providing industries, like professional and business services; education and health services; trade, transportation, and utilities; and leisure and hospitality. T he Arizona economy slowed during the summer, with job growth falling back to the national rate. Further, new personal income estimates suggest slower growth early in the year. While Arizona continues to expand at a solid pace, 2016 no longer appears to be the breakout year. Nonetheless, the odds still favor continued growth in the U.S. and Arizona economies this year and next. The outlook for Arizona calls for solid gains in jobs, income, and population. While growth rates are expected to far exceed the nation, they are not headed back to historical averages. Job gains will likely be concentrated in Arizona’s two largest metropolitan areas have also experienced a summer lull, but are expected to rebound later this year and in 2017. As usual, the Phoenix MSA is forecast to expand at a rapid pace. The Tucson MSA is expected to capitalize on recent announcements of new jobs in the aerospace sector to generate improved gains during the forecast. Arizona Recent Developments The Arizona economy continued to add jobs during the summer, although the pace slowed. Over the year, Arizona added 44,400 jobs for a 1.7% growth rate. That matched the national rate, but fell short of the pace set in the second quarter of 2.1%. Using monthly data, Exhibit 1 shows that state job growth dipped slightly below the national pace in September. The employment data referenced here result from EBRC’s benchmark and differ from those In This Issue Arizona’s Economy Passes Through Summer Showers Fourth Quarter 2016 Forecast Update ..............................1 Forecast Tables ............... 7 Arizona Economic Indicators: State ............................. 8 Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas .................... 12 Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties..........................17 Exhibit 1: Arizona and U.S. Job Gains Slowed During the Summer Over-the-Year Job Growth Arizona and the U. S. percent 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 U. S. Arizona -6 -8 05 “On average during September, one U.S. dollar bought 19.24 pesos, which was 48.1% higher than in June 2014. ” 06 07 08 09 10 currently published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). One key indicator to track these days is growth in wages per worker. The preliminary data for the first quarter of 2016 suggested the beginning of a stronger recovery in wages. However, the subsequent downward revision to first quarter wages and salaries now indicates that we may still be waiting. Over the year growth in wages per worker was below 2.0% for both the first and second quarters of this year. Keep in mind that annual growth in wages per worker was in the 4.5% per year range during the 2004-2007 period. The U.S. dollar has risen substantially against most currencies since mid-2014. We can get a sense of what this might mean for Arizona’s exports using a real effective exchange rate for Arizona that is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This exchange rate weights changes in U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates using state-specific merchandise export shares, adjusted for relative inflation 11 12 13 14 15 16 rates. This is the exchange rate that really matters for Arizona’s exports to the world (Exhibit 2). Note that Arizona’s real effective exchange rate is at an all-time high (at least since 1988). Further, it has risen 22.2% since mid2014. A rising dollar tends to put downward pressure on exports (and upward pressure on imports), other things the same. After weakening briefly during the spring, the U.S. dollar is again hitting new highs against the Mexican peso. On average during September, one U.S. dollar bought 19.24 pesos, which was 48.1% higher than in June 2014. The U.S. dollar is also up significantly against the Canadian dollar, having risen by 21.0% since mid-2014. Mexico and Canada are Arizona’s two largest merchandise export destinations. The strength of the dollar is beginning to weigh on Arizona’s merchandise export performance. Through July 2016, Arizona’s exports to Mexico have fallen 13.2%, compared to the same period last year. The bulk of 2 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona -10 January, 2017 Winter Issue Exhibit 2: Arizona’s Real Effective Exchange Rate is at an All-Time High Arizona’s Real Effective U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Jan 1998 = 100 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 1990 1995 2000 the decline originated in nonmanufacturing goods, primarily minerals and ores. Exports of commodities tend to be especially volatile and mineral and ore exports are coming off a very strong performance in 2014-2015. Manufacturing exports are also down so far this year, but by a modest amount. The strong dollar may also be affecting Mexican visitors to the state. Legal northbound border crossings from Mexico through Arizona’s border ports of entry have slowed since mid-2014 for personal vehicles, personal vehicle passengers, and buses. Interestingly, pedestrian crossings have accelerated recently. Arizona Outlook The Arizona outlook depends in part on the national economy. IHS Economics projects that U.S. real GDP growth will hit just 1.4% in 2016, down from 2.6% last year. Gains accelerate next year to 2.2% and hold steady at that rate through 2019. Sluggish growth in 2016 reflects an inventory draw down, slower consumption 2005 2010 2015 spending, weak nonresidential fixed investment (especially in the energy sector), slower gains in residential investment (housing), and weak export performance. Slightly stronger gains are expected in 2017, as rising oil prices spur renewed investment in the energy sector and a gradually falling dollar spurs stronger export gains. 85 “Gains accelerate next year to 2.2% and hold steady at that rate through 2019. ” As Exhibit 3 shows, accelerating real GDP growth is expected to be accompanied by slower job growth. The ongoing retirement of the baby boom generation is expected to weigh on job gains during the forecast period. During the past five years, real GDP and job gains have been unusually similar, which reflects the very slow productivity growth the U.S. has experienced since the end of the Great Recession. This is a shift from the typical pattern, in which real GDP gains outpace job growth by a substantial margin. As the exhibit shows, the forecast assumes that the normal pattern re-emerges. This is a crucial assumption. azeconomy.org | 3 Exhibit 3: U.S. Real GDP Growth Accelerates Modestly, While Job Gains Slow Real GDP and Non-Farm Job Growth IHS Economics Forecast, October 2016 percent 4 real GDP 3 2 1 non-farm jobs 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 06 “The strong increase in retail sales in 2015 was driven in part by a change in tax law.” 08 10 12 14 16 Continued global and national growth sets the stage for Arizona to continue to add jobs and residents, and experience further gains in inflation-adjusted income. As Exhibit 4 shows, the forecast calls for job growth to decelerate slightly this year, before picking up steam again in 2017 and 2018. After a brief acceleration in the near term, job growth in the state gradually softens as the retirement of the baby boom generation increasingly impacts economic growth. Nonetheless, Arizona’s job growth is expected 18 20 22 Arizona’s income growth accelerates as job growth gains momentum. Wages rise more rapidly in the near term, as the state unemployment rate continues to fall. This sets the stage for continued gains in household spending, including spending on taxable goods. The strong increase in retail sales in 2015 was driven in part by a change in tax law that shifted some revenues from contracting into retail sales. Actual Forecast 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nonfarm Jobs 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.7 Personal Income 4.5 4.3 5.2 6.0 Retail Sales Less Food 9.2 4.2 4.6 4.2 Population 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 Growth Rate Level Housing Permits 26 to outpace the national rate during the next 10 years. Exhibit 4: Arizona Outlook Summary Unempl. Rate 24 6.1 5.6 5.2 5.1 28,910 34,346 37,372 41,686 4 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona -5 January, 2017 Winter Issue Population rises during the forecast, driven primarily by net migration, as U.S. residential mobility improves during the forecast. Faster population growth, in turn, boosts housing permits and construction employment. Overall, Arizona’s growth is on track for solid performance: above the national rate in most cases, but slower than our historical averages. “Arizona’s job growth is expected to outpace the national rate during the next 10 years.” azeconomy.org | 5 KEEPING CURRENT Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller College of Management. For continuous updates of Arizona’s economic indicators, check out our website’s Indicators page: www.azeconomy.org/data/economic-indicators/ There you can browse indicators by geography or topic and graph each series by clicking on the series title. SUBSCRIBE If you wish to be notified each quarter when a new issue of Arizona’s Economy is posted online, go to: www.azeconomy.org/subscribe/ We do not share our mailing list. FOLLOW US facebook.com/Eller.EBRC @Eller_EBRC 6 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue FORECAST TABLES Arizona Personal Income ($ mil) % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($mil) % Chg from Year Ago Total Nonfarm Employment (000s) % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates % Chg from Year Ago Residential Building Permits (units) % Chg from Year Ago Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA Personal Income ($ mil) % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil) % Chg from Prior Total Nonfarm Employment (000s) % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates % Chg from Year Ago Residential Building Permits (units) % Chg from Prior Tucson MSA Personal Income ($ mil) % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil) % Chg from Year Ago Total Nonfarm Employment (000s) % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates % Chg from Year Ago Residential Permits (units) % Chg from Year Ago 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 267,361 278,795 293,408 311,015 330,090 349,909 4.5% 4.3% 5.2% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 92,647 95,287 99,748 104,469 110,007 115,513 4.7% 2.8% 4.7% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% 2,634.6 2,691.9 2,763.4 2,838.5 2,918.5 2,998.1 2.5% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 6,758.3 6,855.5 6,967.3 7,089.2 7,216.0 7,344.9 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 28,910 34,346 37,372 41,686 43,733 44,722 7.1% 18.8% 8.8% 11.5% 4.9% 2.3% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 189,740 200,664 213,147 228,113 243,808 259,625 6.1% 5.8% 6.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 65,240 68,102 71,984 76,293 81,110 85,573 5.3% 4.4% 5.7% 6.0% 6.3% 5.5% 1,912.7 1,971.8 2,034.6 2,102.8 2,170.6 2,232.1 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 4,482.9 4,565.9 4,662.0 4,760.0 4,857.3 4,954.8 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 22,402 28,307 32,878 35,018 34,786 34,839 10.1% 26.4% 16.1% 6.5% -0.7% 0.2% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 38,606 40,347 42,303 44,557 46,987 49,463 3.8% 4.5% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 12,933 13,279 13,767 14,295 15,031 15,668 3.3% 2.7% 3.7% 3.8% 5.1% 4.2% 367.4 372.8 379.8 387.5 395.5 403.5 0.6% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1,009.4 1,015.4 1,025.0 1,035.8 1,046.9 1,058.3 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2,428 2,706 3,741 3,967 4,128 4,179 -25.3% 11.5% 38.2% 6.1% 4.1% 1.2% Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact George Hammond: ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 520.626.1679 The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states. azeconomy.org | 7 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force % Chg from Year Ago Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate 3,223.8 3,213.5 3,222.0 3,235.9 3,252.4 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 3,031.6 3,026.6 3,043.2 3,066.6 3,090.6 192.2 187.0 178.7 169.4 161.8 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 2,714.4 2,707.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS Total 2,704.5 % Chg from Year Ago Total Private % Chg from Year Ago Goods Producing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Utilities Information Finance and Insurance 2,702.7 2,708.4 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 2,300.9 2,297.3 2,301.9 2,307.2 2,299.9 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 309.4 307.1 309.8 308.9 305.8 11.5 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 138.4 136.8 139.7 139.4 135.7 159.5 158.3 158.1 157.5 158.1 120.3 119.5 119.5 119.4 120.1 39.2 38.8 38.6 38.1 38.0 2,395.1 2,395.6 2,398.6 2,405.5 2,401.4 1,991.5 1,990.2 1,992.1 1,998.3 1,994.1 97.1 96.8 95.6 95.1 95.4 330.1 329.2 329.6 331.1 326.5 91.8 92.9 92.7 93.4 93.8 47.1 46.9 47.3 48.7 47.4 154.9 153.8 154.4 154.6 154.0 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 51.2 51.3 50.0 50.5 50.2 Professional and Business Services 409.8 408.3 408.0 407.5 409.2 130.5 132.3 130.9 129.9 130.8 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.8 32.8 247.5 243.9 244.7 244.8 245.6 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Government % Chg from Year Ago Federal Government 63.8 63.9 66.4 65.8 64.3 351.7 351.2 352.0 353.1 353.1 40.5 40.9 40.1 40.7 41.5 266.5 268.3 269.2 270.5 273.3 87.0 86.7 86.8 87.3 85.4 403.6 405.4 406.5 407.2 407.3 -0.7% -0.9% -0.8% 0.0% -0.5% 54.5 54.5 53.9 55.4 54.9 State Government 84.0 83.9 86.2 86.1 86.7 Local Government 265.1 267.0 266.4 265.7 265.7 8 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 24.24 24.21 24.50 Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Total Private 23.77 23.74 % Chg from Year Ago 3.6% 3.1% 3.8% 4.1% 5.1% Construction 24.73 25.10 25.65 25.55 25.24 Manufacturing 24.42 24.22 23.87 24.02 24.12 Financial Activities 27.03 27.35 28.57 28.17 28.93 Professional and Business Services 25.67 26.01 26.15 26.32 26.61 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 22.82 22.04 22.77 22.86 23.55 Education and Health Services 25.24 25.21 25.23 25.52 25.56 Leisure and Hospitality 14.13 14.13 14.07 14.09 14.25 7,818,670.3 7,545,590.4 7,483,573.9 7,570,867.0 Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC* % Chg from Year Ago 3.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% Retail Sales 5,210,887.8 5,013,005.5 4,961,568.8 5,024,135.4 Food, EBRC** 1,063,546.7 1,012,971.6 1,007,827.8 1,018,742.6 Restaurants & Bars 1,024,992.8 1,030,523.8 998,743.6 1,030,888.8 Gasoline, EBRC*** 519,243.0 489,089.4 515,433.6 497,100.2 Gallons, ADOT 235,484.4 243,449.2 248,881.5 237,619.6 Utilities 933,792.4 1,161,600.6 1,179,526.6 1,039,128.4 Communications 166,155.1 167,421.1 169,486.8 166,489.2 Amusements 118,096.8 89,815.2 92,679.5 80,381.1 Rentals Personal Property 309,884.2 334,065.8 343,422.1 341,352.9 Contracting 865,089.6 851,325.7 787,599.8 851,996.3 Hotel/Motel 198,181.2 183,280.1 177,556.2 214,568.7 Mining, Oil, & Gas Production 11,200.5 11,181.3 14,810.9 10,385.0 Mining Severance 41,937.6 58,532.0 52,265.0 51,683.6 Printing 17,923.4 16,509.4 20,063.0 20,881.1 6,432.0 7,990.8 6,560.8 6,506.6 517,947.5 412,036.9 454,810.2 593,756.9 Publishing Use Tax New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units % Chg from Year Ago Single Family Units % Chg from Year Ago 4,711 2,440 2,629 3,514 2,174 51.2% -21.6% -17.0% 40.4% -16.9% 2,570 1,820 2,132 1,917 1,899 14.5% -15.9% 3.2% -1.4% 2.0% 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures 67 37 54 58 27 2,074 583 443 1,539 248 1,314 1,252 1,335 1,182 1,247 -10.7% -16.0% -7.5% -17.5% -12.6% 1,103 1,028 1,103 956 1,011 Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District Total % Chg from Year Ago Chapter 7 Chapter 11 11 16 11 18 10 Chapter 13 200 208 221 208 225 *EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona), Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax rate on gasoline (ADOR). **estimated by EBRC. ***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR). azeconomy.org | 9 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Resident Births, ADHS Birth Rate Residents Deaths, ADHS Net Migration, EBRC 6,438.2 6,498.6 6,581.1 6,667.2 6,758.3 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 85.2 85.7 85.0 86.6 85.0 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.0 13.1 47.5 48.5 49.9 51.1 54.2 10.9 34.2 48.5 53.0 65.4 *This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC feels this figure is more accurate. **Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services. Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 35,078.1 36,349.6 36,799.8 38,356.5 39,560.7 % Chg from Year Ago 4.4% 3.6% 1.2% 4.2% 3.1% 46,794 48,170 49,070 50,083 51,002 2.3% 2.9% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 225,838.9 236,220.3 242,181.5 255,731.8 267,361.1 5.0% 4.6% 2.5% 5.6% 4.5% 151,754.7 158,853.5 165,510.0 172,673.2 180,699.2 15,992.4 16,540.0 19,323.9 19,999.4 20,974.3 1,243.5 1,334.4 1,288.8 1,376.4 1,539.2 Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA** % Chg from Year Ago Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA*** Total Personal Income % Chg from Year Ago Earnings by place of work Less: Contributions for government social insurance Plus: Adjustment for residence Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 137,005.9 143,647.9 147,475.0 154,050.2 161,264.1 Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent 40,510.1 44,501.6 44,902.3 48,316.7 49,793.4 Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 48,322.9 48,070.8 49,804.2 53,365.0 56,303.6 113,662.6 119,041.4 122,681.9 127,830.5 134,025.2 4.0% 4.7% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% Supplements to wages and salaries 26,527.3 26,873.8 27,727.5 28,678.1 29,112.2 Proprietors' income 11,564.8 12,938.2 15,100.6 16,164.7 17,561.8 Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA*** Total Wages and salaries % Chg from Year Ago Farm Nonfarm 542.8 318.6 738.5 623.8 808.2 11,022.0 12,619.6 14,362.1 15,540.9 16,753.6 *EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate. **Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. ***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component” Inflation and Prices - United States Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 240.30 241.00 241.86 242.35 U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seasonally adjusted), BLS All Urban Consumers: All Items % Chg from Year Ago Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items % Chg from Year Ago U.S. Producer Price Index for All Commodities (seas. adj.), BLS % Chg from Year Ago 239.81 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 248.38 248.50 249.23 249.90 249.45 1.4% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 187.70 -3.2% 186.20 -3.0% 187.00 -1.1% 186.80 -0.4% 186.40 0.4% 10 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Arizona - Travel and Tourism Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Employment (000s, 12-month moving averages*), BLS Leisure and Hospitality 303.6 304.5 305.2 305.9 306.8 % Chg from Year Ago 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.9 44.9 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% 237,138.8 238,115.8 239,808.7 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% Accommodation % Chg from Year Ago Sales ($000s, accrual, 12-month moving average*), ADOR Hotel/Motel % Chg from Year Ago Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (12-month moving averages*) Total Passengers % Chg from Year Ago 3,661,539.0 3,636,405.2 3,630,435.6 1.6% 0.4% -0.3% 267,511.3 267,830.2 269,032.4 270,358.8 0.3% 0.9% 1.5% 2.2% Tucson International Airport (12-month moving averages*) Total Passengers % Chg from Year Ago *These data series are all quite volatile, thus the 12-month moving average yields more accurate information on trend. Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont. Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 573,293 555,998 624,005 International Border Crossings, Bureau of Transportation Statistics Pedestrians % Chg from Year Ago Personal Vehicle Passengers % Chg from Year Ago Personal Vehicles % Chg from Year Ago Trains % Chg from Year Ago Trucks % Chg from Year Ago Buses % Chg from Year Ago Bus Passengers % Chg from Year Ago 633,204 678,557 11.0% 1.1% 1.2% 3.5% 6.7% 1,424,872 1,488,943 1,407,065 1,275,178 1,470,138 2.0% 1.4% -0.2% 1.9% -1.2% 759,039 743,115 714,514 691,701 758,838 6.6% 1.2% -2.1% 1.4% -3.2% 58 59 60 65 68 -13.4% -4.8% -4.8% -8.5% -16.1% 29,870 32,873 36,668 39,382 41,357 1.7% -2.5% -6.5% 5.0% 3.6% 1,060 1,066 1,103 956 1,295 6.3% -7.9% -0.5% 4.4% 14.0% 15,395 15,675 18,223 16,000 19,411 -0.3% -17.4% 10.1% 45.5% 15.7% *Figures are totals of all Arizona border ports of entry (Nogales District): Douglas, Lukeville, Naco, Nogales, San Luis. Crossings are from Mexico into the United States. Park Visits, Arizona 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 19,339.1 19,030.6 19,221.3 20,703.7 22,427.9 -3.7% -1.6% 1.0% 7.7% 8.3% 16,856.6 16,552.4 16,626.2 18,027.4 19,531.4 -2.7% -1.8% 0.4% 8.4% 8.3% Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB Total Arizona % Chg from Year Ago Northern Arizona % Chg from Year Ago Historical 1,327.8 1,147.4 1,070.3 1,114.5 1,177.8 Scenic 6,190.5 6,369.7 6,521.0 6,933.8 7,670.8 Water-based 9,338.3 9,035.3 9,034.9 9,979.1 10,682.8 Southern Arizona 2,482.5 2,478.2 2,595.1 2,676.3 2,896.5 -9.8% -0.2% 4.7% 3.1% 8.2% % Chg from Year Ago Historical Scenic Water-based 438.1 382.2 359.4 384.8 425.4 1,726.3 1,729.7 1,869.3 1,903.1 2,059.9 318.1 366.3 366.4 388.4 411.2 azeconomy.org | 11 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 2,216.8 2,208.5 2,237.7 2,248.2 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.5 1,967.4 1,987.8 Nov 2016 Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS* Total Nonfarm Employment Mining and Logging 1,926.2 1,947.8 2,000.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Construction 110.0 106.9 109.4 109.6 107.7 Manufacturing 120.2 119.4 118.5 118.4 119.0 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 383.8 383.9 383.7 389.7 397.6 38.4 37.7 37.5 38.3 38.0 175.4 174.5 174.0 175.4 175.1 Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 331.4 329.2 328.1 331.9 336.3 Education and Health Services 288.6 292.8 297.0 299.2 299.0 Leisure and Hospitality 208.2 212.4 212.5 215.9 219.4 Other Services Government Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS 64.9 64.2 64.2 64.3 62.6 202.1 223.5 239.2 241.8 242.5 24.87 25.39 25.45 25.83 25.78 Sales ($ accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC Retail Sales Food 5,335,593,471 5,232,512,668 5,388,626,129 3,598,845,384 3,484,146,893 3,604,117,771 732 735 737 Restaurants and Bars 703,219,707 685,729,589 731,146,697 Gasoline, EBRC 301,484,304 328,081,945 316,214,963 Amusements 64,410,573 72,815,751 59,840,156 Hotel/Motel 79,898,132 83,218,275 116,071,506 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 1,439 2,011 3,793 1,986 1,228 1,634 1,559 1,591 Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Units Sold Average Price ($) 7,775 7,975 7,421 7,102 272,386 275,995 281,481 284,339 *Go to www.azeconomy.org for a more detailed breakout of employment categories. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4,227,601 4,273,897 4,338,672 4,404,888 4,482,906 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 154,596,814 163,407,229 167,760,664 178,064,720 186,693,084 5.4% 5.7% 2.7% 6.1% 4.9% 36,568 38,234 38,666 40,424 41,646 4.8% 4.6% 1.1% 4.6% 3.0% 12 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Tucson MSA (Pima Co.)- Monthly Data Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 469,829.0 467,511.0 477,724.0 479,043.0 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.8 376.5 380.6 Nov 2016 Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS* Total Nonfarm Employment Mining and Logging 366.2 369.6 385.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 Construction 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 Manufacturing 24.1 24.0 23.5 23.5 23.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 60.5 60.9 60.7 60.9 62.5 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 Financial Activities 19.8 19.7 19.3 19.4 19.3 Professional and Business Services 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.5 53.0 Education and Health Services 65.7 65.8 65.5 66.5 66.8 Leisure and Hospitality 42.9 42.8 42.5 43.6 45.0 Information Other Services 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 Government 66.8 70.3 79.2 80.3 80.6 Sales ($ accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail , EBRC 1,028,025,550 1,082,050,254 1,040,975,093 Retail 668,927,706 715,448,158 672,223,168 Food, EBRC 156,750,515 157,122,242 157,509,431 Restaurants & Bars 135,636,708 138,372,169 142,703,501 66,710,621 71,107,686 68,538,993 7,900,117 6,290,039 6,505,477 19,594,577 19,236,480 21,058,593 165 185 194 200 151 168 171 178 1,395 1,413 1,331 1,259 218,986 220,774 220,538 216,902 Gasoline, EBRC Amusements Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Units Sold Average Price ($) *Go to https://www.azeconomy.org/ for a more detailed breakout of employment categories. Tucson MSA (Pima Co.) - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal income % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 986,081 990,380 996,046 1,007,162 1,009,371 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 34,737,686 35,985,709 36,453,218 37,893,093 38,922,402 4.1% 3.6% 1.3% 4.0% 2.7% 35,228 36,335 36,598 37,624 38,561 3.6% 3.1% 0.7% 2.8% 2.5% azeconomy.org | 13 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 74.5 73.7 75.8 75.6 Nov 2016 7.1 6.4 5.8 5.7 65.2 65.7 68.1 68.0 Private 48.3 48.2 48.1 47.9 47.0 Government 14.3 14.8 17.3 17.5 17.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 66.9 110,269,531 121,801,523 112,357,640 232 39 18 64 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 134,162 134,313 135,695 139,372 141,602 -0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 2.7% 1.6% 4,917,525 4,939,175 5,130,228 5,449,838 5,705,476 7.8% 0.4% 3.9% 6.2% 4.7% 36,653.6 36,773.6 37,807.1 39,102.8 40,292.3 8.2% 0.3% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 80.5 79.9 79.8 79.9 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.3 Nov 2016 47.5 47.8 47.3 47.8 48.1 40.3 40.1 39.7 40.1 40.3 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 129,567,012 124,732,291 119,964,162 50 48 71 53 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Annual Data Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 75,840 77,683 77,900 77,922 78,269 0.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 5,170,760 5,291,048 5,422,848 5,743,703 6,040,669 0.7% 2.3% 2.5% 5.9% 5.2% 25,800 26,055 26,636 28,155 29,364 0.5% 1.0% 2.2% 5.7% 4.3% *EBRC considers the ADOA population estimates more accurate than official Census population estimates. **BEA “total personal income” divided by ADOA population estimate. 14 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 100.6 102.4 103.1 103.4 Nov 2016 5.2 4.6 5.0 4.6 62.7 65.1 65.3 65.8 65.5 52.9 54.5 54.2 54.7 54.3 9.8 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 144,190,443 151,304,696 145,174,344 86 95 86 91 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 211,247 211,583 213,294 215,357 217,778 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 6,387,827 6,623,513 6,936,360 7,491,508 7,900,004 4.0% 3.7% 4.7% 8.0% 5.5% 30,239 31,305 32,520 34,786 36,275 3.9% 3.5% 3.9% 7.0% 4.3% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 50.8 49.9 50.1 50.0 Nov 2016 7.0 6.5 6.3 5.9 33.9 34.2 34.1 34.2 34.1 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.4 10.9 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63,450,482 64,889,436 64,268,419 50 48 71 53 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000) % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)** % Chg from Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 50,893 50,908 51,269 51,104 50,914 -0.9% 0.0% 0.7% -0.3% -0.4% 4,752,173 4,648,859 4,591,143 4,677,975 4,821,097 3.2% -2.2% -1.2% 1.9% 3.1% 36,405 35,555 35,072 36,088 37,340 3.9% -2.3% -1.4% 2.9% 3.5% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. azeconomy.org | 15 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 99.0 98.1 94.2 94.9 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Nov 2016 24.5 24.4 20.9 19.4 51.4 52.7 53.2 54.2 54.6 Private 37.9 38.0 38.3 39.0 39.3 Government 13.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 106,564,246 105,206,032 115,712,215 Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 62 89 76 72 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60,522 61,500 63,007 63,718 64,180 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 5,644,042 5,593,053 5,926,507 5,954,316 6,449,702 % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)** % Chg from Year Ago 5.9% -0.9% 6.0% 0.5% 8.3% 28,160 27,260 28,313 28,085 30,000 3.6% -3.2% 3.9% -0.8% 6.8% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics Co.: County ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 inhabitants. NPS: National Parks Service EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona. U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona 16 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January, 2017 Winter Issue ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES Apache County Summary - Monthly Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 20.7 20.6 21.0 20.9 20.4 Unemployment Rate 12.7 13.1 11.8 11.1 11.0 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 17.9 17.7 18.7 18.6 18.2 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 10.4 Private Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* 10.2 10.0 11.0 10.8 11,618,813 5,932,429 15,116,666 11,689,439 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Private Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 21.6 21.5 21.2 21.0 20.8 8.1 8.1 7.6 7.3 7.1 14.8 14.7 14.9 14.6 14.6 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.2 27,749,690 27,597,500 23,901,588 25,693,008 11 9 7 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Graham County Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.8 14.9 Unemployment Rate 7.8 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.2 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.0 Private 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 Government 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.3 17,976,059 18,207,247 18,241,924 16,042,047 Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Greenlee County Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 Unemployment Rate 8.7 8.6 7.7 7.4 6.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 Private 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 Government 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 -3,859,644 8,507,159 9,204,091 10,071,645 Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. azeconomy.org | 17 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES La Paz County Summary - Monthly Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 8.8 8.6 Unemployment Rate 6.8 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.3 6.6 6.3 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.1 5.3 Private 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 Government 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 9,990,513 9,290,042 9,060,123 8,983,332 Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 42.0 41.6 41.9 41.9 41.6 9.4 9.6 8.5 7.8 7.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 27.7 27.4 28.4 28.6 28.4 Private 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.8 8.9 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.5 77,044,125 78,657,489 82,137,602 79,927,761 16 15 17 Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 19.8 19.3 19.1 19.1 19.3 Unemployment Rate 10.1 13.1 13.0 12.5 11.8 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 13.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 9.6 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.9 3.7 Private Government Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 26,221,086 26,668,116 23,970,385 24,588,811 11 7 2 *This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales. 18 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona Oct 2016 January, 2017 Winter Issue ECONOMIC DATA FOR ARIZONA AT YOUR FINGERTIPS Download the free AZ Economy App! Search on “Arizona’s Economy” in the iTunes App Store or on Google Play and download the Arizona’s Economy mobile app 2.0 for your iphone, ipad, or android phone today. George W. Hammond, Ph. D. Director and Research Professor (520) 626-1679 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu Subscribe to Arizona’s Economy at: https://www.azeconomy.org/subscribe/. Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC) at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBRC Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the people of Arizona and the nation, EBRC is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic forecasts and analysis. Copyright © 2016 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The University of Arizona. 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