FALL 2016 ISSUE

Arizona’s 30-Year Outlook: Surfing a
Wave of Growth
By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Director and Research Professor
September 1, 2016
This is true even for Tucson,
where employment increases have
accelerated strongly during the past
nine months. The outlook calls for
growth rates to improve in the near
term, with reduced fiscal drag and
increased migration flows into the
state. This drives further gains in
construction and related sectors,
which have been slow to rebound
from the housing bust. Overall, the
state economy is moving forward
and its trajectory is positive.

A

rizona’s economy is well
positioned to outpace the U.S.
during the next 30 years.
The outlook calls for the state, the
Phoenix metropolitan statistical
area (MSA), and the Tucson MSA
to grow faster than the nation
across most major macroeconomic
aggregates. However, as is expected
for the nation, the state is not likely
to regain the rapid growth rates
posted during the 30 years before
the Great Recession. In the end, the
aging of the baby boom generation
will take a toll on growth at the
national, state, and local levels.
Arizona’s recent growth continues
to be strong, with job gains far
outpacing the national average.

Arizona Recent
Developments
Arizona added 64,400 net new
jobs in the second quarter of 2016,
compared to the same period
of last year. That translated into
2.5% growth, which far outpaced
the national average of 1.8%. The
Phoenix MSA, which includes both
Maricopa and Pinal counties, grew
faster in the second quarter at 2.9%
(54,300 new jobs over the year).
The Tucson MSA also posted strong
job gains over the year, with growth
of 2.2% (8,200 new jobs). Keep in
mind that these data reflect EBRC’s
benchmark estimates and thus
differ from data currently published

In This Issue
Arizona’s 30-Year Outlook:
Surfing A Wave of Growth
Third Quarter 2016 Forecast
Update...............................1
Losing Ground: Arizona’s
Long-Run Per Capita Personal
Income Trends....................5
Forecast Tables...................9
Arizona Economic Indicators:
State.............................. 10
Arizona Economic Indicators:
Metro Areas..................... 14
Arizona Economic Indicators:
Counties..........................18

“Arizona’s adjusted
earnings per worker
were 7.7% below the
national average,
ranking the state
36th in the nation.”

by the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). Note as well that
construction jobs were up by 7.0%
during the past four quarters,
reflecting in part rebounding
residential construction activity.
Three sectors lost jobs over
the year: mining and logging
(reflecting low copper prices),
government (losses concentrated
in the state and local sector), and
other services.
Even though Arizona is generating
job growth in excess of the
national average, our earnings
remain below average. Exhibit
1 shows how Arizona stacks
up against all U.S. states and
the District of Columbia, after
adjusting for the cost of living

using relative price parities
provided by the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA). BEA
estimates that Arizona’s cost of
living was 3.6% below the national
average in 2014.
Adjusted for the state’s cost of
living, per worker earnings in
Arizona hit $52,553 in 2014 (we
do have earnings data for 2015,
but estimates of the cost of living
extend only through 2014). The
data show that Arizona’s adjusted
earnings per worker were 7.7%
below the national average,
ranking the state 36th in the
nation. Overall, Arizona ranked
below average in per worker
earnings. However, state earnings
were above those in Oregon,

Exhibit 1: Arizona’s Per Worker Earnings Were 7.7% Below the Nation in 2014

Earnings
per$100,000
Worker

Per Worker Earnings by State, 2014
adjusted for cost of living using regional price parities

$90,000

$80,000

$70,000

U.S.
$56,965

Arizona
$52,553
Rank: 36

$60,000

$50,000

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

Dist. of Columbia
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New York
Texas
Alaska
North Dakota
Illinois
Delaware
Ohio
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Washington
Pennsylvania
Virginia
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Tennessee
Louisiana
United States
California
Missouri
Georgia
Maryland
Iowa
Michigan
Colorado
Wyoming
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Kansas
Indiana
Alabama
Kentucky
South Dakota
Arizona
West Virginia
New Hampshire
Arkansas
Oregon
South Carolina
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Mississippi
Florida
Idaho
Maine
Vermont
Hawaii
Montana

$0

2 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and
Idaho, but below earnings in
Colorado, California, Washington,
and Texas.

Arizona Outlook in the
Short Run
The short-run outlook calls for
the U.S. economy to continue
to expand during the next
three years, although at a fairly
modest pace. Real GDP growth
is expected to average 1.9% this
year, then to accelerate modestly
to 2.4% in 2017 and 2018. Slow
nonresidential investment and
export activity restrain gains this
year, as does slower growth in
consumption. Sluggish export
activity is in part connected to
the fallout from Brexit. Residential
investment is expected to remain
robust during 2016 and 2017, in
spite of increasing interest rates.
The subdued national outlook
translates into something similar
for Arizona. Job growth is forecast
to rise from 2.5% in 2015 to 2.8%
this year, then again to 3.0% in
2017.

Arizona Outlook in the
Long Run
The long-run outlook for Arizona
calls for continued growth in the
major macroeconomic aggregates,
like jobs, population, and income.
While Arizona’s growth rates are
expected to exceed the national
average, the forecast does not call
for a return to the pace of growth
set during the 30 years before the
Great Recession (1977-2007). It is
much the same story for Phoenix
and Tucson.

“Job growth is
forecast to rise from
2.5% in 2015 to
2.8% this year, then
again to 3.0% in
2017.”

The forecast calls for Arizona
to add 1.8 million jobs during
the next 30 years, with total
employment reaching 4.5 million
by 2046. The average pace of job
growth is forecast to be 1.7% per
year, which is more than double
the expected national rate of 0.7%
per year. Arizona jobs are forecast
to rise by 2.3% per year during
the next decade, then by 1.6% per
year during the 2026-2036 period,
and finally to decelerate to 1.3%
per year during the 2036-2046
period. The gradual deceleration
is driven by the aging of the baby

Exhibit 2: Job Gains Accelerate in Phoenix and Tucson in the Near Term

Annual Job Growth Rates

percent

8
6
4
Phoenix

2

Tucson

0
-2
-4
-6
-8
00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

azeconomy.org | 3

boom generation which mirrors
the national trend.

deaths) continues to be positive
during the forecast, but drifts
down as demographic aging takes
hold. Overall, the state is forecast
to add 3.6 million residents during
the 30 year period, with population
rising from 6.9 million in 2016
to 10.5 million by 2046. That
translates into an average annual
rate of 1.4% per year, which is
much faster than the national rate
of 0.6% per year, but falls well
short of the state’s growth rate of
3.2% per year during the 30 years
before the Great Recession.

Both Phoenix and Tucson are
forecast to generate faster job
gains in the next few years, as
Exhibit 2 shows. However, they
do not escape the demographic
slowing in the longer term. The
Phoenix MSA is forecast to add
1.5 million jobs during the next 30
years, which implies an average
annual growth rate of 1.9% per
year. Further, this means that
Phoenix accounts for 83.4% of
statewide job gains during the
period. The Tucson MSA also adds
jobs during the 30 year period,
with employment increasing by
162,000 or 1.2% per year. Tucson
is expected to account for 9.1% of
job gains during the forecast.

“In 2014, Arizona’s
educational
attainment rate
was 3.9 percentage
points below the
national average.”

Risks to the Outlook
Longer-term risks revolve
around the main determinants
of state and local economic
performance. One of these is
human capital accumulation,
which is often measured by
educational attainment. During
the past 74 years, the share of
Arizona’s working age population
with a bachelor’s degree or
better has steadily increased,
as Exhibit 3 shows. That is a
good thing. However, during that

Population growth is expected to
continue for the state, Phoenix,
and Tucson during the 30 year
period, outpacing the nation but
falling short of past results. Most
of the population gains during
the forecast are driven by net
migration. Natural increase (the
difference between births and

Exhibit 3: Arizona’s Working Age College Attainment Rate Falls Behind
the U.S.

Share of the Population Age 25-64
with a Bachelor’s Degree or More

percent
35

29.9

30

31.5

26.5
27.6

25

22.7

Arizona
18.1

U.S.

20

7.8
6.5

5
4.5

9.6

24.7

27.6

26.3

21.8

18.0

13.3

15
10

31.1

11.8

8.4
6.5

0
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

4 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

2010

2013

2014

October, 2016 Fall Issue

time Arizona has also steadily
lost ground relative to the
nation. Indeed, in 2014, Arizona’s
educational attainment rate was
3.9 percentage points below the
national average. Without better
performance in educational
attainment, it is hard to see the
state keeping up with national per
capita income gains.

Infrastructure is another
key component of state and
local economic performance.
This includes investment in
highways, roads, water, sewer,
telecommunications, airports, and
border ports. Facilitating improved
trade, travel, and communications
flows across the country and
around the world will be important
for Arizona to remain economically
competitive.

Losing Ground: Arizona’s Long-Run Per Capita
Personal Income Trends
George Hammond, EBRC Director and Research Professor
Arizona’s nominal per capita
personal income hit $39,471 in
2015, according to the latest
preliminary estimates from the
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA). National per capita personal
income was $47,669 last year.
Arizona’s per capita personal
income rose 3.2% from 2014 to
2015, before adjustment for the
cost of living and inflation, a bit
below the national rate of 3.5%.
Arizona’s per capita personal
income was calculated using
the Arizona Department of
Administration population estimate
for 2015, so it differs a bit from
the number published by the U.S.
BEA. Also, keep in mind that the
data is frequently revised. If you’re
reading this months after it was
posted, the current data may be a
bit different.
Overall, state per capita income
remains well below the national
average and well below per capita
income in most states. As Exhibit
1 shows, Arizona’s per Arizona’s
nominal per capita personal
income hit $39,471 in 2015,
according to the latest preliminary
estimates from the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA). National
per capita personal income was
$47,669 last year. Arizona’s per

capita personal income rose
3.2% from 2014 to 2015, before
adjustment for the cost of living
and inflation, a bit below the
national rate of 3.5%.
Arizona’s per capita personal
income was calculated using
the Arizona Department of
Administration population estimate
for 2015, so it differs a bit from
the number published by the U.S.
BEA. Also, keep in mind that the
data is frequently revised. If you’re
reading this months after it was
posted, the current data may be a
bit different.

“State per capita
income remains well
below the national
average and well
below per capita
income in most
states.”

Overall, state per capita income
remains well below the national
average and well below per
capita income in most states. As
Exhibit 1 shows, Arizona’s per
capita income ranked 42nd out
of 50 states and the District of
Columbia. Arizona’s per capita
personal income was also well
below that of most western states,
including California, Washington,
Colorado, Texas, Oregon, and
Nevada. Arizona’s per capita
income was above that of Utah,
New Mexico, and Idaho in 2015.
Keep in mind that Arizona’s per
capita personal income gap with
the nation has been growing

azeconomy.org | 5

“Arizona’s income
gaps with the U.S.
are relatively large
and have been
growing rapidly.”

rapidly in recent years, reflecting
our sub-par growth. As Exhibit
2 shows, the gap rose steadily
during the 1980s before stabilizing
during the 1990s. It then fell
during the economic expansion of
the 2000s. The gap reached a low
during this period of 9.9% in 2006.
With the Great Recessing hitting
the state hard, the gap increased
and has now nearly doubled to
17.2%.
Arizona’s income gaps with the
U.S. are relatively large and
have been growing rapidly. One
natural question at this point is:
which of the major components
contributes most to the income

gap? We can decompose the
income gap in a straightforward
way. The percentage income gap
can be broken down into three
major components: net earnings
per capita; dividends, interest,
and rent per capita; and transfers
per capita. In other words, just
divide each of the components of
personal income by population.
We can then further disaggregate
net earnings per capita into
two parts: net earnings per
employment resident and the
employment-population ratio.
Exhibit 3 shows the results for
four years during the 1970-2015
period.

Exhibit 1: Nominal Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) in 2015 By U.S. State

$80,000

Nominal Per Capita Personal Income, 2015
2015 dollars

$70,000

$60,000

U.S.
$47,669
Arizona
$39,471
Rank: 42

$50,000

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

Dist. of Columbia
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Maryland
Alaska
Wyoming
New Hampshire
North Dakota
California
Virginia
Washington
Minnesota
Colorado
Rhode Island
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Nebraska
Vermont
Hawaii
United States
Delaware
Texas
Kansas
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Iowa
Oklahoma
Florida
Ohio
Louisiana
Oregon
Missouri
Michigan
Nevada
Maine
Tennessee
Montana
Indiana
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Arkansas
Utah
Kentucky
Alabama
New Mexico
South Carolina
Idaho
West Virginia
Mississippi

$0

6 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

Exhibit 2: Arizona’s per capita income gap with the U.S. growing rapidly
in recent years

Arizona’s Per Capita Income Gap With The U.S.

percent

0

-4
-8
-12
-16

70

75

80

85

90

In 1971, the employmentpopulation ratio made the biggest
contribution to the income gap,
followed by transfers per capita.
In contrast, net earnings per
employed resident and dividends,
interest, and rent per capita were
above the national average.

95

00

05

10

15

-20

By 1985, however, the situation
radically changed, with net
earnings per employed resident
accounting for 5.3% of the
6.0% income gap. That was a
huge increase from 1971. The
employment-population ratio
made a much smaller contribution

Exhibit 3: Decomposing Arizona’s Per Capita Personal Income Gap With
The U.S.
percent

Arizona’s Per Capita Income Gap With The U.S.

10.0
5.0
3.5
0.0

0.5
-5.9

-5.0

-1.2

-10.0
-15.0
-20.0

2.3
-5.3

-5.8

-1.5

-2.2

-1.6

-1.2
-0.7

Transfers
DIR
Emp/Pop Ratio
Net Earnings

1971

-10.0

-3.5
-3.6
-0.2

1985

2006

2015

azeconomy.org | 7

in 1985 than in 1971. Note that
dividends, interest, and rent
per capita remained above the
national average.
By 2006, all major components
contributed to the 9.9% income
gap, with the biggest single
contribution coming from net
earnings.
Note that the situation worsens by
2015, with the per capita income
gap in Arizona reaching 17.2%.
The biggest contributor to the gap
(again) was net earnings, followed
by dividends, interest, and rent
per capita, the employment-

population ratio, and transfers per
capita.
What has driven the rising gap
and the rising contribution of net
earnings per employed resident?
Stay tuned for further research,
but several good candidates
stand out. First, changes in the
employment distribution across
high-low wage jobs have likely had
an impact. In addition, migration/
immigration trends have likely
mattered as well. Finally, during
this period Arizona’s educational
attainment has gradually fallen
behind the national average.

“What has driven the rising gap? ...Several good candidates stand
out. Changes in the employment distribution across high-low
wage jobs have likely had an impact...migration/immigration
trends have likely mattered as well. Finally, during this
period Arizona’s educational attainment has gradually
fallen behind the national average.”

KEEPING CURRENT
Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly by the Economic and Business
Research Center in the Eller College of Management. For continuous
updates of Arizona’s economic indicators, check out our website’s
Indicators page: www.azeconomy.org/data/economic-indicators/
There you can browse indicators by geography or topic and graph each
series by clicking on the series title.

SUBSCRIBE
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Economy is posted online, go to: www.azeconomy.org/subscribe/
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8 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

FORECAST TABLES
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Building Permits (units)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($ mil)
  % Chg from Prior
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Building Permits (units)
  % Chg from Prior
Tucson MSA
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($ mil)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

266,973

280,788

297,016

314,895

333,649

353,715

4.7%

5.2%

5.8%

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

92,636

95,425

100,995

106,165

111,669

117,402

4.7%

3.0%

5.8%

5.1%

5.2%

5.1%

2,633.9

2,706.8

2,788.4

2,869.3

2,947.2

3,022.7

2.5%

2.8%

3.0%

2.9%

2.7%

2.6%

6,758.3

6,861.7

6,978.1

7,100.3

7,226.2

7,354.1

1.4%

1.5%

1.7%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

28,910

37,174

42,994

45,629

47,106

48,034

7.1%

28.6%

15.7%

6.1%

3.2%

2.0%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

189,226

200,439

213,112

227,613

243,381

259,314

5.8%

5.9%

6.3%

6.8%

6.9%

6.6%

65,235

67,768

72,002

76,420

80,869

85,380

5.3%

3.9%

6.2%

6.1%

5.8%

5.6%

1,912.3

1,976.8

2,042.8

2,109.9

2,176.3

2,238.5

3.2%

3.4%

3.3%

3.3%

3.1%

2.9%

4,482.9

4,567.4

4,661.3

4,758.1

4,857.1

4,956.5

1.8%

1.9%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

22,402

27,345

33,598

36,592

37,359

38,013

10.1%

22.1%

22.9%

8.9%

2.1%

1.8%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

38,604

40,359

42,301

44,462

46,878

49,450

3.8%

4.5%

4.8%

5.1%

5.4%

5.5%

12,938

13,298

13,894

14,412

15,065

15,727

  % Chg from Year Ago

3.3%

2.8%

4.5%

3.7%

4.5%

4.4%

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)

367.3

374.2

382.1

390.1

398.1

406.7

  % Chg from Year Ago

0.6%

1.9%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.2%

1,009.4

1,015.5

1,025.7

1,037.7

1,049.9

1,062.5

0.2%

0.6%

1.0%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Permits (units)
  % Chg from Year Ago

2,428

2,729

3,366

4,056

4,442

4,643

-25.3%

12.4%

23.3%

20.5%

9.5%

4.5%

Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of
becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization
to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as quarterly forecast
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Contact George Hammond: ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 520.626.1679
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research
Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are
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azeconomy.org | 9

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force
% Chg from Year Ago
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate

3,244.8

3,247.3

3,236.8

3,223.8

3,213.2

3.5%

3.5%

3.2%

2.6%

2.2%

3,067.9

3,066.1

3,049.5

3,031.6

3,026.2

176.9

181.1

187.3

192.2

187.0

5.5

5.6

5.8

6.0

5.8

2,704.5

2,698.8

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS
Total
% Chg from Year Ago
Total Private
% Chg from Year Ago
Goods Producing
Mining and Logging

2,697.0

2,690.4

2,700.1

3.1%

2.8%

2.9%

2.6%

2.0%

2,288.4

2,286.0

2,299.8

2,300.9

2,294.3

3.7%

3.3%

3.7%

3.2%

2.6%

303.0

305.3

309.6

309.4

305.9

11.6

11.7

11.9

11.5

11.8

Construction

133.9

134.6

137.5

138.4

135.9

Manufacturing

157.5

159.0

160.2

159.5

158.2

119.9

120.3

121.3

120.3

119.4

Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Service Providing
Private Service Providing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Utilities
Information
Finance and Insurance

37.6

38.7

38.9

39.2

38.8

2,394.0

2,385.1

2,390.5

2,395.1

2,392.9

1,985.4

1,980.7

1,990.2

1,991.5

1,988.4

96.4

96.0

96.5

97.1

96.5

328.4

329.1

330.5

330.1

329.4

91.4

91.9

91.7

91.8

92.8

48.2

47.9

48.0

47.1

47.0

153.9

153.6

154.8

154.9

153.5

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

51.8

51.1

51.6

51.2

51.2

Professional and Business Services

409.5

406.2

408.6

409.8

406.2

132.1

129.9

130.1

130.5

132.1

31.7

31.7

31.7

31.8

32.0

245.7

244.6

246.8

247.5

242.1

Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
Administrative and Support
Waste Management and Remediation
Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Government
% Chg from Year Ago
Federal Government

64.1

62.0

61.9

63.8

63.5

348.0

349.8

354.0

351.7

352.1

40.1

39.6

40.6

40.5

40.7

264.6

265.4

263.7

266.5

268.3

89.0

88.1

88.3

87.0

87.2

408.6

404.4

400.3

403.6

404.5

-0.2%

0.0%

-1.8%

-0.7%

-1.1%

53.9

54.5

54.6

54.5

54.5

State Government

87.2

83.8

85.1

84.0

83.9

Local Government

267.5

266.1

260.6

265.1

266.1

10 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

23.77

23.74

24.17

Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS
Total Private
% Chg from Year Ago

23.92

24.17

3.8%

5.3%

3.6%

3.1%

3.5%

Construction

24.44

24.60

24.73

25.10

25.44

Manufacturing

24.32

24.17

24.42

24.22

23.96

Financial Activities

27.01

28.10

27.03

27.35

28.77

Professional and Business Services

25.99

26.48

25.67

26.01

26.13

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

22.89

23.17

22.82

22.04

22.15

Education and Health Services

25.66

25.35

25.24

25.21

25.29

Leisure and Hospitality

14.23

14.28

14.13

14.13

14.00

7,897,509.0

7,948,640.6

7,826,719.7

Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC*
% Chg from Year Ago

1.9%

1.0%

3.6%

Retail Sales

5,107,803.2

5,198,925.4

5,210,887.8

Food, EBRC**

1,095,049.4

1,086,391.3

1,071,587.4

Restaurants & Bars

1,172,091.4

1,127,491.8

1,024,992.8

Gasoline, EBRC***

521,497.2

533,701.4

519,251.7

489,084.8

Gallons, ADOT

241,322.2

245,718.9

235,488.3

243,446.9

Utilities

643,469.9

735,649.8

933,792.4

Communications

187,366.2

180,729.3

166,155.1

Amusements

116,023.4

131,912.3

118,096.8

Rentals Personal Property

322,467.0

296,238.6

309,884.2

Contracting

819,198.9

932,201.0

865,089.6

Hotel/Motel

283,640.3

239,572.4

198,181.2

Mining, Oil, & Gas Production

12,073.0

11,729.2

11,200.5

Mining Severance

57,136.8

55,394.2

41,937.6

Printing

21,291.8

20,301.0

17,923.4

Publishing

10,017.3

7,714.6

6,432.0

493,152.6

426,554.7

517,947.5

Use Tax
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
% Chg from Year Ago
Single Family Units
% Chg from Year Ago

2577

3503

4711

2440

2629

-16.3%

29.3%

51.2%

-21.6%

-17.0%

2230

2155

2570

1820

2132

3.5%

1.2%

14.5%

-15.9%

3.2%

2-4 Unit Structures

71

46

67

37

54

276

1302

2074

583

443

1409

1408

1314

1252

1335

-13.9%

-1.9%

-10.7%

-16.0%

-7.5%

1188

1169

1103

1028

1103

5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District
Total
% Chg from Year Ago
Chapter 7
Chapter 11

10

16

11

16

11

Chapter 13

211

223

200

208

221

*EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona),
Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax
rate on gasoline (ADOR).
**estimated by EBRC.
***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR).

azeconomy.org | 11

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2011

Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics

2012

2013

2014

2015

Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Resident Births, ADHS
Birth Rate
Residents Deaths, ADHS
Net Migration, EBRC

6,438.2

6,498.6

6,581.1

6,667.2

6,758.3

0.6%

0.9%

1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

85.2

85.7

85.0

86.6

85.0

13.2

13.2

12.9

13.0

13.1

47.5

48.5

49.1

51.1

54.2

10.9

34.2

48.5

53.0

68.2

*This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC
feels this figure is more accurate.
**Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services.
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

35,867.3

37,114.7

37,024.0

38,260.6

39,471.2
3.2%

Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC*
  % Chg from Year Ago

4.7%

3.5%

-0.2%

3.3%

47,943

49,265

49,376

50,661

2.7%

2.8%

0.2%

2.6%

230,920.3

241,192.2

243,656.9

255,092.9

266,756.0

5.3%

4.4%

1.0%

4.7%

4.6%

156,700.8

163,693.4

167,827.3

175,367.2

182,517.3

15,873.2

16,423.0

19,165.5

20,056.3

20,749.4

1,243.5

1,334.5

1,281.9

1,365.2

1,453.7

Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA**
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA***
Total Personal Income
  % Chg from Year Ago
Earnings by place of work
Less: Contributions for government social
insurance
Plus: Adjustment for residence
Equals: Net earnings by place of residence

142,071.1

148,605.0

149,943.7

156,676.1

163,221.6

Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent

40,526.3

44,516.4

44,511.3

46,309.8

48,083.5

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts

48,322.9

48,070.8

49,201.9

52,107.0

55,450.9

113,662.6

119,041.4

122,598.2

127,815.2

133,073.1

4.0%

4.7%

3.0%

4.3%

4.1%

Supplements to wages and salaries

26,408.1

26,755.2

27,696.0

28,869.3

29,859.9

Proprietors' income

16,630.0

17,896.8

17,533.1

18,682.7

19,584.3

Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA***

Total Wages and salaries
  % Chg from Year Ago

Farm
Nonfarm

542.8

318.6

675.6

559.2

689.5

16,087.2

17,578.2

16,857.4

18,123.5

18,894.7

*EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from
ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate.
**Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of
three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income.
***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component”
Inflation and Prices - United States

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

239.41

239.93

239.83

240.31

U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seasonally adjusted), BLS
All Urban Consumers: All Items
  % Chg from Year Ago
Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items
  % Chg from Year Ago
U.S. Producer Price Index for All Commodities
(seas. adj.), BLS
  % Chg from Year Ago

238.89
1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

0.9%

1.1%

246.59

247.89

248.27

248.41

248.54

1.8%

1.5%

1.6%

1.4%

1.6%

183.20
-4.0%

185.00
-4.3%

187.40
-3.8%

187.30
-3.4%

186.20
-3.0%

12 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arizona - Travel and Tourism

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

Employment (000s, 12-month moving averages*), BLS
Leisure and Hospitality

301.6

302.2

302.9

303.6

304.4

  % Chg from Year Ago

3.7%

3.6%

3.4%

3.3%

3.2%

45.3

45.2

45.1

45.1

45.1

1.5%

1.1%

0.7%

0.4%

0.1%

234,147.1

234,928.6

236,577.4

5.8%

5.4%

5.6%

Accommodation
  % Chg from Year Ago

Sales ($000s, accrual, 12-month moving average*), ADOR
Hotel/Motel
  % Chg from Year Ago

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (12-month moving averages*)
Total Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago

3,682,722.7

3,682,711.2

3,679,832.2

3,661,424.7

3.5%

3.1%

2.7%

1.6%

266,159.7

266,095.0

266,830.4

267,511.3

267,830.2

-1.4%

-1.3%

-0.6%

0.3%

0.9%

Tucson International Airport (12-month moving averages*)
Total Passengers
% Chg from Year Ago

*These data series are all quite volatile, thus the 12-month moving average yields more accurate information on trend.
Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont.

Nov 2015

Dec 2015

Jan 2016

Feb 2016

Mar 2016

573,293

555,998

624,005

International Border Crossings, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Pedestrians
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Vehicle Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago
Personal Vehicles
  % Chg from Year Ago
Trains

633,204

678,557

11.0%

1.1%

1.2%

3.5%

6.7%

1,424,872

1,488,943

1,407,065

1,275,178

1,470,138

2.0%

1.4%

-0.2%

1.9%

-1.2%

759,039

743,115

714,514

691,701

758,838

6.6%

1.2%

-2.1%

1.4%

-3.2%

58

59

60

65

68

  % Chg from Year Ago

-13.4%

-4.8%

-4.8%

-8.5%

-16.1%

Trucks

29,870

32,873

36,668

39,382

41,357

  % Chg from Year Ago

1.7%

-2.5%

-6.5%

5.0%

3.6%

Buses

1,060

1,066

1,103

956

1,295

% Chg from Year Ago
Bus Passengers
  % Chg from Year Ago

6.3%

-7.9%

-0.5%

4.4%

14.0%

15,395

15,675

18,223

16,000

19,411

-0.3%

-17.4%

10.1%

45.5%

15.7%

*Figures are totals of all Arizona border ports of entry (Nogales District): Douglas, Lukeville, Naco, Nogales, San Luis.
Crossings are from Mexico into the United States.
Park Visits, Arizona

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

19,339.1

19,030.6

19,221.3

20,703.7

22,427.9

-3.7%

-1.6%

1.0%

7.7%

8.3%

16,856.6

16,552.4

16,626.2

18,027.4

19,531.4

-2.7%

-1.8%

0.4%

8.4%

8.3%

Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB
Total Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Northern Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Historical

1,327.8

1,147.4

1,070.3

1,114.5

1,177.8

Scenic

6,190.5

6,369.7

6,521.0

6,933.8

7,670.8

Water-based

9,338.3

9,035.3

9,034.9

9,979.1

10,682.8

Southern Arizona

2,482.5

2,478.2

2,595.1

2,676.3

2,896.5

  % Chg from Year Ago

-9.8%

-0.2%

4.7%

3.1%

8.2%

Historical

438.1

382.2

359.4

384.8

425.4

1,726.3

1,729.7

1,869.3

1,903.1

2,059.9

318.1

366.3

366.4

388.4

411.2

Scenic
Water-based

azeconomy.org | 13

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016 Aug 2016

2,221.6

2,214.8

2,222.4

2,216.8

2,208.2

4.7

4.7

5.3

5.4

5.0

1,934.2

1,926.2

1,946.1

Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS*
Total Nonfarm Employment
Mining and Logging

1,977.5

1,960.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

Construction

105.4

105.7

108.2

110.0

106.1

Manufacturing

118.4

119.9

120.9

120.2

119.2

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

384.0

383.9

383.4

383.8

383.6

39.3

38.8

39.2

38.4

37.7

Financial Activities

175.3

174.7

175.2

175.4

174.1

Information
Professional and Business Services

332.9

328.1

329.8

331.4

327.6

Education and Health Services

292.9

291.9

290.4

288.6

294.5

Leisure and Hospitality

216.3

214.4

209.4

208.2

211.7

Other Services
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS

66.7

65.7

65.6

64.9

64.9

243.0

233.9

208.8

202.1

223.4

24.99

25.35

24.98

24.87

25.22

5,642,859,252

5,596,878,731

5,491,083,649

5,333,761,437

3,730,248,367

3,730,068,809

3,717,332,403

3,598,845,384

Sales ($ accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC
Retail Sales
Food, EBRC

723,609,492

725,733,724

727,934,574

730,212,042

Restaurants and Bars

854,968,997

803,952,291

720,630,597

703,219,707

Gasoline, EBRC

335,254,294

337,645,532

325,186,075

301,484,304

Amusements
Hotel/Motel

87,139,325

108,273,810

92,945,334

64,410,573

185,259,561

136,412,444

97,325,049

79,898,132

1,951

2,883

4,059

1,700

2,017

1,684

1,658

1,946

1,382

1,637

New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Units Sold
Average Price ($)

8,437

8,820

8,986

7,775

7,975

271,208

282,429

282,661

272,385

275,995

2014

2015

*Go to www.azeconomy.org for a more detailed breakout of employment categories.
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

4,227,601

4,273,897

4,338,672

0.7%

1.1%

1.5%

1.5%

160,086,328

168,757,726

170,239,926

178,871,199

5.8%

5.4%

0.9%

5.1%

37,867

39,486

39,238

40,607

5.1%

4.3%

-0.6%

3.5%

4,404,888 4,482,906

14 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

1.8%

NA

October, 2016 Fall Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs

Apr 2016

Tucson MSA (Pima Co.)- Monthly Data

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

477,987.0

478,709.0

473,259.0

469,829.0

468,131.0

4.9

5.0

5.7

5.8

5.4

369.2

366.2

369.7

Persons (000s), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), Current Employment Statistics, BLS*
Total Nonfarm Employment

382.1

Mining and Logging

380.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

Construction

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.5

14.3

Manufacturing

23.5

23.7

24.1

24.1

23.9

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

60.7

60.8

60.7

60.5

61.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Financial Activities

19.5

19.6

19.9

19.8

19.6

Professional and Business Services

53.2

52.2

52.1

52.1

52.3

Education and Health Services

65.8

66.7

66.5

65.7

65.7

Leisure and Hospitality

45.0

44.5

43.2

42.9

43.0

Information

Other Services

12.7

12.7

12.8

12.6

12.5

Government

80.2

78.5

68.2

66.8

70.3

1,034,665,231 1,103,052,498 1,071,831,318

1,027,847,535

Sales ($ accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail , EBRC
Retail

646,320,165

719,311,085

707,610,168

668,927,706

Food, EBRC

155,690,238

155,970,146

156,264,233

156,572,500

Restaurants & Bars

160,814,511

154,104,288

139,459,639

135,636,708

Gasoline, EBRC

71,865,138

73,704,246

68,497,278

66,710,621

Amusements

12,492,582

8,169,666

7,485,379

7,900,117

Hotel/Motel

30,402,930

25,955,752

19,477,832

19,594,577

240

188

239

165

185

224

165

219

151

168

1,473

1,529

1,638

1,395

1,413

221,260

214,291

234,753

218,986

220,774

New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Units Sold
Average Price ($)

*Go to https://www.azeconomy.org/ for a more detailed breakout of employment categories.
Tucson MSA (Pima Co.) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal income
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

986,081

990,380

996,046

1,007,162

1,009,371

0.5%

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

0.2%

34,539,779

35,590,889

35,784,754

37,198,714

4.7%

3.0%

0.5%

4.0%

35,027

35,937

35,927

36,934

4.1%

2.6%

0.0%

2.8%

NA

azeconomy.org | 15

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

73.6

73.6

75.2

74.5

73.8

5.7

5.7

6.8

7.1

6.4

66.6

66.1

66.2

65.2

65.8

46.0

47.3

48.3

48.3

48.3

18.1

16.2

15.1

14.3

14.8

18.82

18.74

18.48

18.17

18.40

100,332,598 104,272,730 124,444,667 110,269,531
32

32

42

232

39

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

134,162

134,313

135,695

139,372

141,602
1.6%

-0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

2.7%

4,819,660

4,978,754

5,127,921

5,399,899

4.7%

3.3%

3.0%

5.3%

35,924.2

37,068.3

37,790.1

38,744.5

5.1%

3.2%

2.0%

2.5%

NA

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.
Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave
County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

79.8

80.4

80.3

80.5

79.9

6.8

6.6

7.5

7.4

7.0

48.0

48.5

47.3

47.5

47.9

40.1

40.6

40.1

40.3

40.2

7.9

7.9

7.2

7.2

7.7

20.40

21.27

20.51

21.67

22.39

133,079,804 128,602,538 134,867,193 129,567,012
66

52

69

50

48

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County)
- Annual Data
Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

75,840

77,683

77,900

77,922

78,269

0.8%

2.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.5%

5,219,541

5,347,552

5,396,628

5,633,946

1.5%

2.5%

0.9%

4.4%

26,043

26,333

26,507

27,617

1.3%

1.1%

0.7%

4.2%

*EBRC considers the ADOA population estimates more accurate than official Census population estimates.
**BEA “total personal income” divided by ADOA population estimate.

16 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

NA

October, 2016 Fall Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

100.9

101.1

101.4

Jul 2016 Aug 2016
100.7

102.1

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.2

4.7

64.0

63.3

63.4

62.7

64.8

Private

53.0

52.9

53.3

52.9

54.4

Government

11.0

10.4

10.1

9.8

10.4

20.20

20.14

20.55

20.53

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

19.77
144,149,002
79

149,975,679 156,561,077 144,190,443
103

141

86

95

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

211,247

211,583

213,294

215,357

217,778

0.2%

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

6,345,155

6,591,170

6,811,155

7,172,392

4.4%

3.9%

3.3%

5.3%

30,037

31,152

31,933

33,305

4.2%

3.7%

2.5%

4.3%

NA

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.
Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

50.2

50.5

50.9

Jul 2016 Aug 2016
50.8

49.9

6.5

6.4

7.1

7.0

6.5

34.3

34.3

34.0

33.9

34.0

22.4

22.5

22.9

23.0

22.5

11.9

11.8

11.1

10.9

11.5

21.58

22.26

20.60

21.57

21.78

65,754,737

66,376,748

76,354,355

63,450,482

66

52

69

50

48

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.
Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($)**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

50,893

50,908

51,269

51,104

50,914

-0.9%

0.0%

0.7%

-0.3%

-0.4%

4,736,361

4,678,914

4,593,193

4,679,941

3.6%

-1.2%

-1.8%

1.9%

36,284

35,785

35,088

36,103

4.3%

-1.4%

-2.0%

2.9%

NA

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

azeconomy.org | 17

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - MSAs
Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

93.5

97.2

97.8

99.0

97.1

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Jul 2016 Aug 2016

18.8

21.0

22.2

24.5

24.6

54.3

53.3

51.7

51.4

51.9

Private

39.1

38.3

38.1

37.9

37.9

Government

15.2

15.0

13.6

13.5

14.0

18.34

18.31

18.38

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

18.26

18.24

121,086,410

112,110,302

84

76

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

110,677,475 106,564,246
94

62

89

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

60,522

61,500

63,007

63,718

64,180
0.7%

0.8%

1.6%

2.5%

1.1%

5,622,247

5,586,005

5,838,101

5,841,652

  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($)**
  % Chg from Year Ago

5.6%

-0.6%

4.5%

0.1%

28,051

27,226

27,890

27,553

3.4%

-2.9%

2.4%

-1.2%

NA

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of
Employment and Population Statistics

EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The
University of Arizona.

ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue

MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one
core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.

ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport

ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board

TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce

U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have
at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less
than 50,000 inhabitants.

USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation
NPS: National Parks Service

* All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona.

18 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2016 Fall Issue

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES
Apr 2016

May 2016

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

20.2

Unemployment Rate

11.0

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

Apache County Summary - Monthly

Private
Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

20.5

20.7

20.6

21.0

11.0

12.7

13.1

11.8

18.1

18.3

17.9

17.7

18.6

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7
10.9

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.0

10,139,309

9,361,823

11,618,813

5,932,429

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA)
Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA
Private
Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

21.0

21.3

21.6

21.5

21.3

7.4

7.2

8.1

8.1

7.5

14.8

14.9

14.8

14.7

14.9

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.7

9.6
5.4

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.0

27,164,143

24,739,527

27,749,690

27,597,500

16

8

11

9

7

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Graham County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

15.0

14.7

14.5

14.3

14.3

Unemployment Rate

6.9

7.0

7.8

7.8

7.3

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.4

8.6

Private

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.8

Government

3.3

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.8

15,379,557

20,520,249

17,976,059

18,207,247

Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Unemployment Rate

8.2

8.1

8.7

8.6

7.7

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

Private

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

Government

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.6

-1,314,022

9,194,134

-3,859,644

8,507,159

Greenlee County Summary - Monthly

Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

azeconomy.org | 19

ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS - COUNTIES
La Paz County Summary - Monthly

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

8.5

8.7

8.8

8.6

8.1

Unemployment Rate

6.3

5.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.1

Private

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

Government

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

Taxable Sales: Total ($000, accrual)*, ADOR
*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA)
Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

Aug 2016

41.5

42.0

42.0

41.6

41.8

8.2

8.1

9.4

9.6

8.5

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

28.3

28.4

27.7

27.4

28.3

Private

18.6

18.7

18.8

18.9

19.0

9.7

9.7

8.9

8.5

9.3

64,500,108

72,152,917

77,044,125

78,657,489

13

16

16

15

17

Aug 2016

Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA
Private
Government
Retail Sales ($, accrual), ADOR*
New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Apr 2016

May 2016

Jun 2016

Jul 2016

19.7

19.8

19.8

19.3

19.1

8.4

8.3

10.1

13.1

13.1

13.7

13.6

13.2

12.4

12.4

9.9

9.9

9.6

8.8

8.7
3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

27,410,489

26,579,107

26,221,086

26,668,116

2

8

11

7

*This retail sales figure does not include food, restaurant and bar, or gasoline sales.

20 | Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

2

October, 2016 Fall Issue

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George W. Hammond, Ph. D.
Director and Research Professor
(520) 626-1679
ghammond@eller.arizona.edu

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