January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona’s Economy
Economic and business research center

Tales of Two Cities: Arizona’s Largest Metropolitan Areas Diverge
By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Director and Research Professor

December 1, 2015

has been above the national average
since mid-2011. From the third quarter
of 2014 to the same quarter of this year,
the Phoenix MSA added 48,800 jobs. That
translated into a growth rate of 2.7%,
which was well above the national rate of
2.0%. It also accounted for 88.1% of net
job growth statewide. Keep in mind that
the employment data seen here is based
on EBRC’s benchmark of the raw BLS data.

T

he Arizona economy is expanding
at a solid, but unspectacular, pace.
However, those gains are very
unevenly distributed across the state. The
Phoenix metro area (MSA), composed of
Maricopa and Pinal counties, accounted
for most of the state’s job growth during
the past year. In contrast, the Tucson MSA
(Pima County) generated no net job gains.
The rest of the state posted slow job
growth. Overall, Arizona remains stuck in
low gear, in large part because fiscal drag
and low U.S. residential mobility continue
to hinder key sectors. The forecast calls
for growth to accelerate as these factors
gradually loosen their grip.

Through September 2015, housing
permit activity in the Phoenix MSA
has increased strongly, with permits up
17.8% compared to the same period
last year. Most of that strength was
concentrated in single family permits,
which were up 38.9% over 2014. Multifamily permits were running 8.8% below

In this issue

The outlook for the Phoenix MSA is
summarized in Exhibit 2. The forecast
calls for economic growth to strengthen
during the next three years, with job
growth reaching 2.9% by 2017. Stronger
job gains translate into faster growth in
personal income and retail sales. Keep
in mind that the strong growth in retail
sales in 2015 is likely related to a change
in tax law that is reallocated sales from
contracting to the retail category.

Exhibit 1: Phoenix MSA Job Growth Outpaces the Nation

Over-the-Year Job Growth Rates

Percent
percent

Phoenix MSA and the U.S.

10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5

Phoenix MSA Outlook:
Sustained Rapid Growth
The Phoenix metro economy is expanding
at a faster rate than the nation. As
Exhibit 1 shows, job growth in the MSA

their 2014 rate. Overall, housing permits
are showing signs of strength so far
this year, which suggests stronger gains
in construction employment in 2016,
assuming that builders can overcome a
tight construction labor market.

U.S.U.S.
Phoenix
Phoenix
MSA MSA

-5.0
-7.5

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

-10.0

Photos of Tucson and Phoenix State Capitols, Shutterstock.com

Tales of Two Cities: Arizona’s Largest Metropolitan
Areas Diverge Fourth Quarter 2015 Forecast Update. . . . . . 1
Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Arizona Economic Indicators: State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Arizona’s Economy

From the third

Exhibit 2: Phoenix MSA Outlook Summary
Actual*

quarter of 2014 to the
same quarter of this

Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017

Growth Rate

year, the Phoenix MSA

Nonfarm Jobs

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

added 48,800 jobs. That

Personal Income

5.0

5.5

5.5

6.1

Retail Sales Less Food

3.8

9.9

5.5

5.9

Population

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

20,341

23,316

25,979

33,266

translated into a growth
rate of 2.7%...

Level
Housing Permits
* Personal income is forecast.

Tucson MSA Outlook:
Growing, but Still Slow

Professional and business services; leisure
and hospitality; education and health
care; financial activities; and information
all added jobs. However, those gains were
roughly offset by losses in natural resources
and mining; other services; manufacturing;
construction; trade, transportation, and
utilities; and government.

The Tucson MSA (Pima County) has been
losing steam during the past three years,
with gradually decelerating job gains
(Exhibit 3). As the graph suggests, monthly
data for Tucson tends to be volatile, so it is
wise to focus on more on quarterly/annual
data. In the third quarter of 2015, Tucson’s
employment was virtually unchanged
from a year ago. That’s a big contrast with
the nation, state, and Phoenix MSA, each
of which added jobs at a rate of 2.0%
or greater. Again, keep in mind that the
employment data seen here is based on
EBRC’s benchmark of the raw BLS data.

The government sector generated the
largest job losses over the year, with
the big decline coming in state and
local government. These losses reflect
employment reductions at the University
of Arizona, as well quirks in the counting of
teachers returning to work.
Overall, Tucson’s slow growth since 2012
has reflected the impact of fiscal drag.
During 2013-2014, this was primarily driven
by federal fiscal drag, with the imposition

Performance has been quite different across
industries during the past four quarters.
Exhibit 3: Tucson MSA Job Growth Loses Steam

Over-the-Year Job Growth Rates

percent
Percent

Tucson MSA and the U.S.

8
6
4
2
0

-2
U.S.
U.S.
Tucson
Tucson
MSAMSA

96
2

98

00

-4
-6
02

04

06

08

10

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

12

14

-8

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Exhibit 4: Tucson MSA Outlook Summary

In the third quarter

Actual*

Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017

Nonfarm Jobs

0.5

0.3

1.0

1.6

Personal Income

3.6

3.6

3.9

4.7

Retail Sales Less Food

2.4

10.8

3.7

3.5

Population

1.1

0.2

0.5

0.9

3,250

3,901

4,039

4,502

Growth Rate

Level
Housing Permits

of 2015, Tucson’s
employment was
virtually unchanged
from a year ago. That’s
a big contrast with
the nation, state, and

* Personal income is forecast.

of the sequester and other federal budget
cuts. Lately, state and local fiscal drag has
become more of an issue, with state budget
cuts affecting the local economy.
Fiscal drag tends to impact Tucson more
than Phoenix or the state as a whole. This
happens simply because federal and state/
local activity is a larger share of the local
economy. Government (federal civilian
and military, as well as state and local)
accounted for 21.9% of Tucson’s GDP in
2014, compared to 12.4% for the U.S.,
13.8% for the state, and 10.1% for Phoenix.
The forecast calls for Tucson to grow during
the next three years, but at a modest
pace (Exhibit 4). Job growth accelerates
from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.6% by 2017. The
acceleration reflects less federal (and state
and local) fiscal drag, as well as increased
U.S. residential mobility which boosts
population gains.

sector would not recover to the degree
expected in the baseline forecast.
In addition, a continued appreciation in the
value of the U.S. dollar carries risks for the
state. Exports, particularly to Mexico, have
been a bright spot for the state economy
during the past year. A much stronger dollar
would weigh on exports during the next
couple of years, adversely affecting both
merchandise exports and international
tourist expenditures.

Phoenix MSA, each of
which added jobs at a
rate of 2.0% or greater.

Need to know more?
Contact EBRC Director George Hammond,
Ph.D., about the benefits of becoming a
Forecasting Project sponsor!

Risks to the Forecast
One major risk to the baseline forecasts
for Phoenix and Tucson is the possibility
of a downturn in the U.S. economy. A
U.S. recession would take the wind out of
Arizona’s sails, and push growth down or
even generate a recession for Phoenix and
Tucson.
In addition, there are state-specific risks
to the outlook, particularly the risk that
U.S. residential mobility never increases
substantially above current levels. This
would generate much slower-than-expected
state population gains and the housing

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

3

Arizona’s Economy

Tucson Teacher Wages: Location, Location,
Location
by Maile L. Nadelhoffer, Senior Research Economist
...after adjustment
(for cost of living),
Tucson and Phoenix
come in last for median
teacher pay among
Western metros.

The median wage for secondary school
teachers in Tucson was $38,240 in 2014,
substantially lower than their peers
in Phoenix and $18,070 less than for
secondary school teachers in the U.S.
overall. This means that Tucson teachers
earned only 68 percent of what their
colleagues earned nationally in 2014, and in
Phoenix only 84 percent.
Exhibit 1:

Dashboard, adjusted 20131 median wages
for secondary school teachers for cost of
living across select Western metros and
made comparisons. Her team found that,
after adjustment, Tucson and Phoenix
come in last for median teacher pay among
Western metros (see Exhibit 2). Pullen’s
analysis concluded that ”when adjusted for
cost of living, Tucson teachers earn only 66
percent of what their counterparts in San

Courtesy of the Making Action Possible dashboard.

As one might expect, teachers earned
a whole lot more in San Diego with
their median wage of $73,530. Now for
something you might not expect: secondary
school teachers in El Paso also earned
substantially more than they did in Tucson.
El Paso’s median secondary school teacher
wage was $50,800. Phoenix also pays
less than El Paso with its median wage of
$47,230 (see Exhibit 1).
A common argument for low teacher wages
in Tucson is that the cost of living is less
here when compared to other Western cities
and to the nation overall. Jennifer Pullen,
a research economist at the Economic
and Business Research Center in the Eller
College of Management and program
director for the Making Action Possible
4

Diego earn, and in Phoenix 73 percent.”
Would you go looking for work in San Diego
if you thought you could get anything in
the neighborhood of a 44 percent raise in
real terms? Further, adjusted figures show
the median secondary school teacher wage
is only 70 and 78 percent of the national
median in Tucson and Phoenix, respectively.
Another statement often made when
teacher wages are discussed is “teachers
earn more than other workers in Tucson.”
Yes, median wage of for secondary
school teachers in 2014 ($38,240) was
indeed higher than the median wage for
all occupations ($32,510). However, as
Pullen points out “the all-occupations
median wage includes a large number
of occupations with low educational

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Exhibit 2:

Courtesy of the Making Action Possible dashboard.

requirements.” In the U.S., nearly all
secondary school teachers have bachelor’s
degrees and over half have master’s
degrees. As a result, secondary school
teachers are expected to earn more than
the overall workforce. This is why Pullen’s
team chose to analyze relative median
teacher pay across competitive markets in
the West and make cost of living adjusted
comparisons.
“Research has shown that providing
competitive wages for teachers has a
significant effect on the decision to choose
teaching as an occupation and remain in the

field. Others have noted that insufficient
compensation for teachers, in relation to
other occupations, may affect turnover and
student success”said Pullen.
Visit the Making Action Possible
Dashboard’s (MAP) Teacher Wages page
for a detailed analysis and data on this
important topic and follow the MAP on
Twitter.
Stay tuned for an in-depth report on the
state of teacher wages in Tucson on the
MAP coming in January 2016.

2013 is the most recent year for which purchasing power parity data are available from the U.S. Census Bureau
in order to carry out a cost of living analysis.

1

Economic Impacts of Extending Arizona’s
Border Zone
by Maile L. Nadelhoffer, Senior Research Economist
On October 6, at DATOS: Southern AZ
Regional Overview – Hispanic Market
Breakfast at the Hilton Tucson El
Conquistador, Alberta Charney, Ph.D.,
faculty member and senior research
economist at Eller’s Economic and Business
Research Center (EBRC), presented results of
a new study simulating economic impacts
of extending Arizona’s border zone from
the current 75 miles to include the entire
state to a crowd of about 400. In 2015,
the Maricopa Association of Governments

(MAG) requested that the UA conduct an
economic impact analysis of this proposed
extension on Mexican visitor spending in
Arizona. Several regional planning agencies
including MAG have long felt that allowing
pre-cleared Mexican border crossing card
holders the opportunity and flexibility
to spend their tourist dollars throughout
Arizona will invigorate tourism-sensitive
economies in both rural and urban regions
of the state.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5

Arizona’s Economy

Dr. Charney outlined calculations for
baseline expenditures of Mexican visitors
to Arizona from 2013 to 2016, and provided
several “what if” scenarios including 1)
an increase in all border crossers by three
percent; 2) an increase in passenger crossers
by three percent; and 3) increases of five
percent, ten percent and fifteen percent in
the number of Mexican travelers traveling
north of the existing border zone.
The analysis used data and detailed
characteristics of Mexican visitors and
their spending patterns obtained in an
extensive 2007-2008 Mexican visitors
study, conducted by EBRC for the Arizona
Office of Tourism, combined with current
and projected trends and volume of border
crossings into Arizona.
“The proposed extension could generate
up to $181 million in additional estimated
spending and 2,179 additional jobs in 2016,”
concluded Charney, “and bring the total
projected spending of Mexican visitors to
Arizona to nearly $3.1 billion with a total
jobs impact of 31,856.”
“However, there are risks associated with
these estimates” warned Charney, “if oil
prices remain depressed long-term and
the Mexican Peso-U.S. dollar exchange

rate remains at historic highs, this could
adversely affect Mexico’s overall economy
and lower Mexican consumer spending and
travel.”
Read the entire report “Extending the
Border Zone to the Entire State of Arizona:
Estimated Expenditures and Economic
Impact Simulations, 2013-2016.”
After Dr. Charney’s remarks, study coauthor and EBRC research economist, Alan
Hoogasian took the audience on a tour of
EBRC’s new Arizona-Economic Indicators
website sponsored by the Arizona-Mexico
Commission, Arizona Commerce Authority,
Arizona Department of Transportation, and
Arizona Office of Tourism. The site offers
over three thousand time series tracking
trade and competiveness in the ArizonaMexico region. “What I think is really great
about this site is that it is interactive,” said
Hoogasian, “users can download all the data
they see, click on a table to get a trend
chart, or if they want to use a map or a
chart in a presentation they can download
it in multiple formats with a click.” All the
data on this site are constantly updated and
users are assured they have the most recent
statistics.

Economic data for Arizona at your fingertips download the free AZ Economy App today!
Search on “Arizona’s Economy” in the iTunes App Store or on Google Play and
download the Arizona’s Economy mobile app 2.0 for your iphone, ipad, or
android phone today.

6

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Forecast Tables
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Building Permits (units)
  % Chg from Year Ago

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA
Personal Income ($ mil)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Retail Sales ($ mil)
  % Chg from Prior
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

255,024

264,709

276,824

293,209

311,360

330,316

4.1%

3.8%

4.6%

5.9%

6.2%

6.1%

88,531

91,436

94,849

99,692

105,729

111,410

3.4%

3.3%

3.7%

5.1%

6.1%

5.4%

2,568.8
1.9%
6,667.2

2,626.7
2.3%
6,762.4

2,688.6
2.4%
6,869.6

2,764.7
2.8%
6,993.8

2,845.4
2.9%
7,121.1

2,926.8
2.9%
7,249.8

1.3%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

26,997

27,958

33,284

42,526

46,226

47,846

7.1%

3.6%

19.0%

27.8%

8.7%

3.5%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

178,029

186,556

196,640

208,838

222,319

236,698

4.5%

4.8%

5.4%

6.2%

6.5%

6.5%

61,920

64,352

66,965

70,530

75,371

79,749

3.8%

3.9%

4.1%

5.3%

6.9%

5.8%

1,854.0

1,906.0

1,961.2

2,018.5

2,081.2

2,148.2

2.3%

2.8%

2.9%

2.9%

3.1%

3.2%

4,404.9

4,474.4

4,551.7

4,642.5

4,746.7

4,855.6

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

2.0%

2.2%

2.3%

20,341

20,336

25,028

33,718

37,323

37,442

  % Chg from Prior

8.6%

0.0%

23.1%

34.7%

10.7%

0.3%

Tucson MSA

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Personal Income ($ mil)

38,025

39,106

40,621

42,641

44,806

47,053

  % Chg from Year Ago

3.0%

2.8%

3.9%

5.0%

5.1%

5.0%

Residential Building Permits (units)

Retail Sales ($ mil)

12,577

12,964

13,460

14,019

14,637

15,229

  % Chg from Year Ago

1.6%

3.1%

3.8%

4.2%

4.4%

4.0%

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)

364.9

367.5

372.5

379.4

386.2

393.2

  % Chg from Year Ago

0.5%

0.7%

1.4%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

1,007.2

1,015.1

1,024.9

1,037.8

1,052.1

1,067.0

1.1%

0.8%

1.0%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

Population (000s), July 1st estimates
  % Chg from Year Ago
Residential Permits (units)

3,250

3,654

3,796

4,412

4,893

5,012

  % Chg from Year Ago

-6.9%

12.4%

3.9%

16.2%

10.9%

2.4%

>>Need More?
Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a
Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth
menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as, quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact Marshall
Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075.
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center
producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the
most accurate in the Western states.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7

Arizona’s Economy

Arizona Economic Indicators
Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS
Civilian Labor Force
% Chg from Year Ago
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate

3,145.8

3,141.1

3,144.4

3,148.6

3,158.5

2.1%

1.7%

1.5%

1.3%

1.4%

2,954.3

2,944.3

2,947.4

2,955.6

2,968.4

191.4

196.8

197.0

192.9

190.0

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.1

6.0

Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS
Total
% Chg from Year Ago
Total Private
% Chg from Year Ago
Goods Producing
Mining and Logging

2,626.8

2,630.9

2,651.4

2,663.3

2.1%

2.2%

2.1%

2.4%

2.5%

2,215.9

2,219.7

2,219.6

2,238.5

2,250.4

2.8%
297.7

2.7%
298.1

2.6%
297.8

2.8%
297.8

2.9%
302.2

12.8

12.6

12.5

12.1

12.0

Construction

129.6

129.2

130.2

129.6

133.4

Manufacturing

155.3

156.3

155.1

156.1

156.8

119.3

120.3

119.3

120.2

120.4

36.0

36.0

35.8

35.9

36.4

2,321.9

2,328.7

2,333.1

2,353.6

2,361.1

1,918.2

1,921.6

1,921.8

1,940.7

1,948.2

Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Service Providing
Private Service Providing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade

93.5

94.3

94.0

95.0

95.0

316.6

318.7

319.1

320.7

322.9

Transportation and Utilities

88.8

88.7

87.5

89.0

90.8

Information

43.8

43.3

43.6

44.2

44.7

Finance and Insurance

148.7

150.1

149.8

150.7

149.8

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

46.4

45.9

46.5

48.1

46.5

Professional and Business Services

398.3

394.3

394.5

399.2

399.3

134.6

134.8

134.5

135.8

135.9

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Administrative and Support
Waste Management and Remediation Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Government

30.6

30.4

31.0

31.0

31.4

233.1

229.1

229.0

232.4

232.0

58.7

60.9

59.8

61.6

61.4

334.6

336.4

335.4

336.4

339.8

40.4

40.5

40.0

41.1

41.6

254.7

255.3

258.2

260.1

261.6

93.7

93.2

93.4

94.6

94.8

403.7

407.1

411.3

412.9

412.9

-1.5%

-0.8%

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

Federal Government

54.5

55.1

55.1

54.8

54.9

State Government

85.9

83.1

85.7

88.0

88.1

263.3

268.9

270.5

270.1

269.9

% Chg from Year Ago

Local Government

8

2,619.6

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

23.02

23.36

23.25

23.31

23.49

% Chg from Year Ago

0.7%

2.6%

1.9%

2.5%

3.0%

Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy

Jul 2015

Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS
Total Private
Construction

22.94

22.89

23.17

23.01

23.46

Manufacturing

24.50

24.57

24.28

24.59

24.85

Financial Activities

26.74

27.35

26.99

27.23

27.31

Professional and Business Services

26.15

26.67

26.53

26.53

26.71

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

20.51

20.81

20.69

20.82

20.88

Education and Health Services

24.83

25.03

25.14

25.12

25.21

Leisure and Hospitality

13.94

14.02

14.10

14.15

14.23

7,402,393.7

7,369,357.6

7.4%  

3.8%  

Retail Sales

4,812,535.8

4,780,953.3

4,923,634.0

Food, EBRC**

1,012,754.5

1,007,109.9

1,016,960.6

Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC*
% Chg from Year Ago

Restaurants & Bars

924,207.4

936,652.0

945,514.8

Gasoline, EBRC***

660,000.6

652,969.2

552,722.9

Gallons, ADOT

233,628.5

239,007.8

228,021.0

1,151,548.0

1,160,559.5

1,064,554.0

213,758.4

204,858.4

197,529.0

91,369.3

82,105.0

80,741.3

Rentals Personal Property

332,738.6

271,621.0

287,908.0

Contracting

815,330.8

780,141.8

798,747.5

Hotel/Motel

Utilities
Communications
Amusements

176,544.0

165,831.7

194,254.7

Mining, Oil, & Gas Production

35,621.4

12,998.1

10,593.1

Mining Severance

44,920.4

49,303.8

56,063.8

18,127.4

17,502.0

19,334.9

Printing
Publishing
Use Tax

9,389.3

7,226.7

7,218.0

440,451.8

573,863.7

474,574.1

3114

3168

2503

2617

34.0%

50.6%

34.6%

29.6%

2164

2066

1945

1862

37.9%

51.7%

23.5%

40.4%

34

34

24

16

916

1068

534

739

New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
  % Chg from Year Ago
Single Family Units
  % Chg from Year Ago
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District
Total
  % Chg from Year Ago
Chapter 7
Chapter 11

1491

1443

1433

-15.5%

-11.1%

-1.2%

1249

1218

1190

38

13

15

Chapter 13
204
212
228
*EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona),
Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax
rate on gasoline (ADOR).
**estimated by EBRC.
***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR).

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9

Arizona’s Economy

Arizona Economic Indicators
Population and Vital Statistics - Arizona

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

6,401.6

6,438.2

6,498.6

6,581.1

6,667.2

0.2%

0.6%

0.9%

1.3%

1.3%

87.1

85.2

85.7

85.0

86.6

13.6

13.2

13.2

12.9

13.1

45.9

47.5

48.5

49.1

51.1

-16.6

10.9

34.2

48.5

55.5

Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC
Population
% Chg from Year Ago
Resident Births, July 1st estimates
Birth Rate
Resident Deaths
Net Migration

*This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC feels this
figure is more accurate.
**Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services.

Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

34,240.9

35,867.3

37,114.7

37,024.0

38,260.6

1.3%  

4.7%  

3.5%  

-0.2%  

3.3%  

46,664

47,943

49,265

49,376

50,661

1.7%  

2.7%  

2.8%  

0.2%  

2.6%  

219,195.8

230,920.3

241,192.2

243,656.9

255,092.9

Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA***
Total Personal Income
  % Chg from Year Ago

1.4%  

5.3%  

4.4%  

1.0%  

4.7%  

149,712.1

156,700.8

163,693.4

167,827.3

175,367.2

Less: Contributions for government social insurance

17,129.2

15,873.2

16,423.0

19,165.5

20,056.3

Plus: Adjustment for residence

1,250.9

1,243.5

1,334.5

1,281.9

1,365.2

Earnings by place of work

Equals: Net earnings by place of residence

133,833.8

142,071.1

148,605.0

149,943.7

156,676.1

Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent

37,045.9

40,526.3

44,516.4

44,511.3

46,309.8

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts

48,316.1

48,322.9

48,070.8

49,201.9

52,107.0

Total Wages and salaries

109,289.5

113,662.6

119,041.4

122,598.2

127,815.2

  % Chg from Year Ago

-0.4%  

4.0%  

4.7%  

3.0%  

4.3%  

Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA***

Supplements to wages and salaries

25,521.8

26,408.1

26,755.2

27,696.0

28,869.3

Proprietors' income

14,900.8

16,630.0

17,896.8

17,533.1

18,682.7

Farm
Nonfarm

85.0

542.8

318.6

675.6

559.2

14,815.7

16,087.2

17,578.2

16,857.4

18,123.5

*EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from ADOA. ADOA
counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate.
**Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of three
components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA employment series
for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time
jobs are counted at equal weight. Both employment for wages and salaries and proprietors’ employment are included.
***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component”

10

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
Arizona - Travel and Tourism (monthly data)

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

International Border Crossings, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Total

Border crossing data currently only
available through June 2015.

  % Chg from Year Ago
Pedestrians
Personal Vehicle Passengers
Bus Passengers

Please see AZMEX.eller.ariozna.edu
for full data histories and detail.

Trains
  % Chg from Year Ago
Trucks
  % Chg from Year Ago
Hospitality Employment (000s, not seasonally adjusted), BLS
Leisure and Hospitality
  % Chg from Year Ago
Accommodation

291.2

292.4

294.6

298.5

301.5

4.9%

3.6%

3.7%

3.4%

3.8%

44.2

43.6

43.9

44.5

43.4

1.8%

0.7%

2.3%

2.5%

-1.6%

176,544.0

165,831.7

194,254.7

13.5%

5.2%

9.3%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

20,082.5

19,339.1

19,030.6

19,221.3

20,705.7

-3.6%

-3.7%

-1.6%

1.0%

7.7%

17,328.9

16,856.6

16,552.4

16,626.2

18,029.4

-3.4%

-2.7%

-1.8%

0.4%

8.4%

  % Chg from Year Ago
Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR
Hotel/Motel
  % Chg from Year Ago

Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont.
Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB
Total Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Northern Arizona
  % Chg from Year Ago
Historical

1,296.1

1,327.8

1,147.4

1,070.3

1,114.5

Scenic

6,297.4

6,190.5

6,369.7

6,521.0

6,935.8

Water-based

9,735.4

9,338.3

9,035.3

9,034.9

9,979.1

Southern Arizona

2,753.6

2,482.5

2,478.2

2,595.1

2,676.3

-4.4%

-9.8%

-0.2%

4.7%

3.1%

426.9

438.1

382.2

359.4

384.8

1,939.5

1,726.3

1,729.7

1,869.3

1,903.1

387.2

318.1

366.3

366.4

388.4

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

238.10

237.93

237.57

238.04

238.11

  % Chg from Year Ago
Historical
Scenic
Water-based

Inflation and Prices - United States
U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seasonally adjusted), BLS
All Urban Consumers: All Items
% Chg from Year Ago
Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items
% Chg from Year Ago
U.S. Producer Price Index: All Commodities (seas.
adj.), BLS
% Chg from Year Ago

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

0.4%

245.04

244.74

244.26

244.34

243.75

1.3%

1.3%

1.0%

1.1%

1.5%

193.90
-6.8%

192.20
-7.2%

189.10
-8.4%

187.70
-7.7%

185.90
-7.5%

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11

Arizona’s Economy

Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs
Note our readers: For the MSAs and counties which follow, EBRC “taxable sales” (accrual basis) only run through May of 2015, hence that
line is currently blank. This is due to a delay in reporting from the Arizona Department of Revenue. We hope to have this remedied in the
next issue.

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS
Taxable Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

2,154.8

2,152.7

2,168.7

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
2,172.7

5.7

5.8

5.5

5.2

1,860.4

1,888.0

1,906.2

1,934.3

1,956.0

1,656.8

1,663.4

1,664.4

1,689.9

1,710.0

203.6

224.6

241.8

244.4

246.0

23.80

24.20

24.10

24.17

24.43

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

2,416

2,495

1,855

1,817

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales.

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
% Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
% Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

4,200,427

4,227,601

4,273,897

4,338,672

4,404,888

0.3%

0.7%

1.1%

1.5%

1.5%

151,301,118

160,086,328

168,757,726

1.7%

5.8%

5.4%

0.9%

5.1%

35,944.0

37,631.0

38,965.0

38,655.0

39,846.0

170,239,926 178,871,199

Consumer Price Index (Phx-Mesa-Glndle MSA)
All Urban Consumers: All items, BLS
% Chg from Year Ago
*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

Tucson MSA (Pima County)- Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

459,673

461,557

471,490

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
471,601

6.2

6.1

5.7

5.5

355.4

362.1

371.4

375.0

382.0

291.4

291.0

291.9

294.8

300.5

64.0

71.1

79.5

80.2

81.5

22.01

22.15

22.15

22.28

22.22

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

338

325

288

296

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Tucson MSA (Pima County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
% Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
% Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
% Chg from Year Ago

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

981,168

986,081

990,380

996,046

1,007,162

-0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

33,001,217

34,539,779

35,590,889

35,784,754

37,198,714

0.8%

4.7%

3.0%

0.5%

4.0%

33,608

34,955

35,838

35,855

37,031

0.1%

4.0%

2.5%

0.1%

3.3%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

12

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs
Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015 Nov 2015

75.0

73.8

74.6

73.7

7.2

6.9

6.4

6.3

65.4

65.7

67.2

67.0

65.6

47.6

47.4

47.2

46.7

45.6

15.2

15.4

17.1

17.6

17.6

18.09

18.16

18.26

18.21

18.56

Taxable Sales: Total ($ Accrual), ADOR*

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

45

35

24

214

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales.

Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

134,679

134,162

134,313

135,695

139,372

0.8%

-0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

2.7%

4,603,037

4,819,660

4,978,754

5,127,921

5,399,899

0.2%

4.7%

3.3%

3.0%

5.3%

34,177.8

35,924.2

37,068.3

37,790.1

38,744.5

-0.6%

5.1%

3.2%

2.0%

2.5%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate (not seas. adj.), BLS
Total Nonfarm Employment, (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

12.4

12.2

12.1

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
12.0

9.0

8.5

8.3

7.5

45.9

46.1

45.8

46.0

45.9

38.4

38.5

38.3

38.3

38.3

7.5

7.6

7.5

7.7

7.6

19.24

19.53

19.57

18.74

19.63

Gross Taxable Sales ($, accrual)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

64

51

50

43

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Annual Data
Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC
  % Chg from Year Ago

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

75,210

75,840

77,683

77,900

77,922

0.1%

0.8%

2.4%

0.3%

0.0%

5,143,789

5,219,541

5,347,552

5,396,628

5,633,946

1.0%

1.5%

2.5%

0.9%

4.4%

25,706

26,043

26,333

26,507

27,617

1.1%

1.3%

1.1%

0.7%

4.2%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13

Arizona’s Economy

Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs
Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

96.3

96.6

96.9

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
97.2

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.5

59.2

60.5

61.6

62.4

49.8

50.5

51.0

51.7

51.9

9.4

10.0

10.6

10.7

10.7

62.6

19.26

18.86

18.85

18.87

19.37

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

83

76

107

73

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales.

Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data
Population, ADOA*
  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000), BEA
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**
  % Chg from Year Ago

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

210,899

211,247

211,583

213,294

215,357

-0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

6,077,340

6,345,155

6,591,170

6,811,155

7,172,392

0.1%

4.4%

3.9%

3.3%

5.3%

28,816

30,037

31,152

31,933

33,305

0.6%

4.2%

3.7%

2.5%

4.3%

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS
Private
Government
Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

51.0

50.7

50.3

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
50.2

7.9

8.0

7.6

7.2

33.5

34.0

34.2

34.5

34.5

22.6

22.6

22.5

22.9

22.8

10.9

11.4

11.7

11.6

11.7

20.26

21.20

20.98

21.88

22.21
NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

13.0

17.0

19.0

11.0

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Population, ADOA*

51,329

50,893

50,908

51,269

51,104

-3.6%

-0.9%

0.0%

0.7%

-0.3%

4,570,411

4,736,361

4,678,914

4,593,193

4,679,941

2.2%

3.6%

-1.2%

-1.8%

1.9%

34,773

36,284

35,785

35,088

36,103

1.3%

4.3%

-1.4%

-2.0%

2.9%

  % Chg from Year Ago
Total Personal Income ($000)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($)**
  % Chg from Year Ago

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

14

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs
Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

97.8

96.4

92.4

Oct 2015 Nov 2015
90.7

26.8

27.0

26.1

23.2

48.3

49.9

50.5

51.5

Private

34.9

35.5

35.9

36.8

37.7

Government

13.4

14.4

14.6

14.7

14.8

20.30

20.11

20.10

19.78

19.36

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

44.0

58.0

62.0

71.0

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS

Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS
Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40

52.5

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Population, ADOA*

60,057

60,522

61,500

63,007

63,718

  % Chg from Year Ago

-0.5%

0.8%

1.6%

2.5%

1.1%

5,323,706

5,622,247

5,586,005

5,838,101

5,841,652

3.0%

5.6%

-0.6%

4.5%

0.1%

27,140

28,051

27,226

27,890

27,553

2.2%

3.4%

-2.9%

2.4%

-1.2%

Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data

Total Personal Income ($000)
  % Chg from Year Ago
Per Capita Personal Income ($)**
  % Chg from Year Ago

*Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts
to be the most accurate.
**BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates.

TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have
at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than
50,000 inhabitants.

EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University
of Arizona.
MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core
urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.
PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of
Homeland Security
BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of
Transportation
NPS: National Parks Service

* All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

15

Arizona’s Economy

Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties
Apache County Summary - Monthly

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

21.3

21.0

21.3

20.9

20.3

Unemployment Rate

13.6

14.8

13.7

13.2

12.7

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

18.0

17.6

18.5

18.4

18.1

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.4

10.6

10.2

11.1

11.0

10.8

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Private
Government
Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA) Summary
- Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

22.1

22.0

21.8

21.4

21.1

7.8

8.4

8.4

8.2

8.0

15.2

15.0

15.3

15.1

15.0

Private

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.8

Government

5.2

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.2

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40
7
13
12
7
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Graham County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

12

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

14.8

14.7

14.7

14.9

15.0

Unemployment Rate

7.3

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.4

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

8.7

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.1

Private

5.9

5.8

5.9

5.8

5.8

Government

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.3

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
NA
NA
NA
NA
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Greenlee County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

NA

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

Unemployment Rate

7.5

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.6

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

Private

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Government

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
NA
NA
NA
NA
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

16

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

NA

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties
Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

8.8
7.6
5.1

8.8
7.8
5.2

8.2
8.1
5.1

7.7
8.2
5.1

7.8
7.5
5.2

Private

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

Government

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

La Paz County Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*
NA
NA
NA
NA
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA)
Summary - Monthly
Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS
Unemployment Rate
Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA
Private
Government
Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

NA

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

42.2

41.4

42.0

41.4

40.7

9.6

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.2

27.6

26.8

28.1

28.0

27.8

18.1

18.2

18.3

18.3

18.2

9.4

8.7

9.8

9.8

9.7

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40
14
12
19
14
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

13

Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015

Sep 2015

Oct 2015

Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS

20.0

19.9

19.9

19.8

19.7

Unemployment Rate

10.6

14.2

14.4

14.6

13.7

Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA

Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly

13.3

12.6

12.8

12.8

12.9

Private

9.7

9.1

9.1

9.0

9.2

Government

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.7

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR*

New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40
12
6
4
3
*Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

6

17

January, 2016 Winter Issue

Arizona’s Economy
Economic and business research center
McClelland Hall, Room 103
P.O. Box 210108
1130 E. Helen Street
Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108
George W. Hammond, Ph. D.
Director
(520) 626-1679
ghammond@eller.arizona.edu
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Senior Research Economist
(520) 621-2291
acharney@eller.arizona.edu
Alan Hoogasian
Research Economist
(520) 626-6439
ahoogasi@eller.arizona.edu
Daniel Kinnear
Specialist, Business Research
(520) 626-1673
dkinnear@eller.arizona.edu
Pia Montoya
Database Specialist
(520) 621-2523
pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu
Maile L. Nadelhoffer
Research Economist &
Webmaster
(520) 621-4050
mln@eller.arizona.edu
Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D.
Senior Regional Scientist &
Associate Professor of
Geography
(520) 626-0520
vkp@eller.arizona.edu
Heather Peterson
Technical Consultant
(520) 621-4050
thpeterson@comcast.net
Jennifer Pullen
Research Economist
(520) 626-4795
jkanipe@email.arizona.edu
Valorie Rice
Senior Specialist, Business
Information
(520) 621-2109
vrice@eller.arizona.edu

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