July, 2015 Summer Issue ARIZONA’S ECONOMY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER Cross Currents, Arizona’s Economy Looks for Smooth Sailing By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Director and Research Professor June 1, 2015 Labor Statistics. As our internal analysis suggested, state employment growth fell short of 2.0% in 2014 (at 1.9%). Job gains last year also came in below the 2.3% rate posted in 2013. That pattern was reflected in both Phoenix and Tucson performance. Arizo na’s E c ono my Pete Niesen/Shutterstock A rizona remains on a modest growth track, at least compared to the state’s long-run average. Even so, Arizona continues to add jobs and residents at a faster pace than the nation and most other states. The good news is that Arizona is well positioned to continue to grow, assuming the nation avoids recession, and the state is also likely to continue to outpace the nation. Gas prices remain well below year-ago levels, which will free up funds for households to use to shore up balance sheets and perhaps even finance additional purchases. The rapidly rising value of the U.S. dollar is a concern, because it may weigh on state export performance. Arizona Recent Developments The official employment benchmark has been released by the U.S. Bureau of Much of the sluggish job growth last year was concentrated in the first half of 2014, with stronger gains in the second half. The state has maintained and even built on that momentum going into early 2015, but some of the strength is related to suspiciously large gains in education services and other services (which may not survive the next benchmark revision). However, the state has yet to regain pre-recession employment levels. In other words, state jobs are still below the peak established just before the Great Recession. Using data through March 2015, Arizona has recovered 78.1% of the jobs lost during the downturn (Exhibit 1). In contrast, the U.S. has not only replaced all of the jobs lost during the recession, but has added an additional 32.3%. Note that the Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has replaced 84.9% of the jobs lost during the downturn, with Tucson at 52.1% and the rest of the state at 49.0%. Taking a longer view, it is clear that Arizona jobs continue to recover. One factor holding back employment gains during 2014 was federal fiscal drag. Exhibit 1: Arizona Jobs Are Still Recovering Percent of Jobs Lost During the Great Recession That Have Been Replaced % 160 132.3 140 120 100 84.9 78.1 80 60 52.1 49.0 Tucson MSA Rest of State 40 20 0 Phoenix MSA Arizona US IN THIS ISSUE Cross Currents, Arizona’s Economy Looks for Smooth Sailing Second Quarter 2015 Forecast Update. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 A Look at Veterans in the Labor Force: Arizona and the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Arizona Economic Indicators: State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Mexico is by far the state’s largest export destination. The peso/$ exchange rate has been rising rapidly and is now at an all-time high. This is related to the impact of the federal sequester on government activity, which began in 2013. These cuts have impacted growth in federal employment, as well as private sector jobs through reduced federal procurement spending (government purchases of goods and services from the private sector). The decline in federal procurement spending has likely had a bigger impact on Tucson than Phoenix or the state as a whole. This is because federal government activity (both civilian and military) is a much bigger part of the Tucson economy than it is for the state overall or Phoenix. Indeed, federal activity accounted for 7.7% of Tucson’s GDP in 2012, compared to 1.9% for Phoenix, 3.9% for Arizona, and 3.8% for the U.S. Arizona construction activity remains a concern, with slow employment, permit, and house price gains in 2014. Construction employment increased in 2014, but by just 1.4%, which followed a 6.6% increase in 2013. Likewise, housing permits rose in 2014 by 8.1%, after a 16.0% increase in 2013. All of the increase in permit activity was driven by gains in multi-family permits, which rose 46.2%. Single-family permits, in contrast, fell by 6.0% last year. Phoenix house prices, measured by the Case-Shiller index, rose by 6.6% in 2014, after a 19.6% increase in 2013. Overall, construction activity remains sluggish, held back by a variety of factors, including slow population and household growth. Another important price that has moved rapidly during the past six months is the trade-weighted exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. This has risen by 19.5% over the past year (through April) and now stands at its highest level since 2003. This matters for Arizona because merchandise exports have risen as a share of GDP since 2009. In addition, Mexico is by far the states largest export destination and the Peso/Dollar exchange rate has also been rising rapidly. Indeed, the Peso/Dollar exchange rate is at an all-time high, as Exhibit 2 shows. A strong dollar matters for trade, because it tends to decrease U.S. exports and increase imports, other things the same. Arizona Outlook The slow growth that the state has experienced since the end of the Great Recession is expected to continue in 2015, with job, population, and income gains well below average growth during the 30 years before the downturn. However, as Exhibit 3 shows, state job gains are expected to come at a faster pace than nationally. During the next three years, the state is forecast to add nearly 200,000 net new jobs. Most of those new jobs will be in Exhibit 2: The U.S. Dollar Is Appreciating Rapidly Mexican Pesos per U.S. Dollar pesos/$ 16 15 14 13 12 11 05 2 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 14 15 10 July, 2015 Summer Issue Exhibit 3: Arizona Outpaces U.S. Job Growth During the Forecast Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Rate in Percent percent 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 the service-providing sectors, particularly professional and business services; education and health services; trade, transportation and utilities; and leisure and hospitality. These four sectors alone are expected to account for 73.5% of net job growth. Construction is forecast to generate increased employment during the next three years, as the housing sector picks up a modest amount of steam. Manufacturing jobs are forecast to remain roughly stable, as is government employment. Job growth contributes to increased net migration, which boosts overall population gains. State population gains rise from 86,200 in 2014, to nearly 130,000 per year by 2018. That translates into an acceleration of population growth from 1.3% in 2014 to 1.8% by 2018. Most of the population 14 16 18 20 22 24 -8 growth is expected in the Phoenix MSA. Tucson is forecast to post continued, but smaller, gains as well. Stronger population gains boost housing activity in Arizona during the forecast. Housing permits are forecast to rise from 27,254 in 2014 to 46,171 by 2018. That reflects gains in both single-family and multi-family permits. The forecast also calls for gasoline prices to gradually increase during the next 10 years. However, the rate of increase is expected to be fairly steady, with the price of gasoline in Phoenix rising from $2.23/gallon on average in 2015 to $3.13/gallon by 2019. Need to know more? Contact George Hammond about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor! During the next three years, the state is forecast to add nearly 200,000 net new jobs. Most of those new jobs will be in the service-providing sectors. Construction is forecast to generate increased employment as the housing sector picks up steam. This job growth contributes to increased net migration, boosting overall population gains. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY A Look at Veterans in the Labor Force: Arizona and the U.S. by Valorie Hanni Rice, Senior Specialist, Business Information frame, the change in the percent of the veteran population now in the workforce is promising. The participation rate for veterans in Arizona increased to 52.7% in 2014. This was higher than the previous year by 5.2 percentage points. While the participation rate of nonveterans in Arizona remained unchanged at 62.7%, nationally the participation rate for veterans has been steadily trending downward, hitting 50.6% in 2014 (it was 55.2% on 2007 the first year this report was issued on an annual basis). There were 268,000 veterans employed in Arizona during 2014 compared with 256,000 in 2013. The unemployment rate for veterans in Arizona was 5.7% in 2014, a Photo courtesty of Shutterstock.com decrease of 0.1% from the year before. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the annual Employment Situation for Veterans 2014 report this spring. BLS has issued this report periodically since 1993 and annually since 2007, but has only included state-level data since 2013. Having state level data on veteran employment is a great step forward in understanding how our veterans are faring in the job market. The employment situation data come from an annual supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS) co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Veteran’s Affairs and the U.S. Department of Labor’s Veteran’s Employment and Training Service. The CPS is a monthly sample survey of about 60,000 households that provides data on employment and unemployment in the U.S. Veterans are men and women who served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and were not on active duty at the time of the survey. State-Level Statistics There were 268,000 veterans employed in Arizona during 2014 compared with 256,000 in 2013. The unemployment rate for veterans in Arizona was 5.7% in 2014, a decrease of 0.1% from the year before. While this was nowhere near the 1.0% unemployment drop seen in the nonveteran population during that time 4 State-level unemployment rates for veterans in 2014 ranged from 1.4% in North Dakota to 8.5% in Maryland. At 5.7%, Arizona was closer to the national figure of 5.3%. This figure is substantially lower than for nonveterans in Arizona or the U.S. overall, at 6.9% and 6.0%, respectively. Arizona’s unemployment rate for veterans remained relatively unchanged between 2013 and 2014, while there were a few states that made marked improvement. Idaho and Michigan both dropped their veteran unemployment rate by more than 4 percentage points in that time. Among the ten western states compared in the Making Action Possible (MAP) Dashboard, Idaho had the lowest unemployment rate for veterans at 2.3% while Oregon had the highest at 7.1% in 2014. Idaho also had the greatest improvement, going from 7.2% unemployment in 2013 down to 2.3% in 2014. Texas had the highest labor force participation rate for veterans, at 56.5%. Arizona, however, had the least variance in the participation rates between veterans and nonveterans with a difference of only 10.0 percentage points. The participation rate of nonveterans is always higher, and substantially so in some cases. Nationally, the divergence was 15.1 points between veterans and nonveterans, at 50.6% and at 65.7%, respectively. See Table 1 for breakouts. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Detailed Employment Data For U.S. Veterans rate for nonveterans was 6.0%. The rates for both veterans and nonveterans had declined from their 2013 figures of 6.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The exception to this was Gulf War-era II veterans. Their unemployment rate, at 7.2% in 2014 and 9.0% in 2013, was higher than both veterans as a whole and nonveterans. The Employment Situation of Veterans report provides only basic employment figures for states; however, national data are available at a more detailed level, providing statistics by gender, race and ethnicity, service period, and industry as well as other factors. Historically, veterans have lower unemployment rates than nonveterans, and 2014 was no exception. Unemployment for U.S. veterans was 5.3% in 2014, while the Veterans who served during World War II, Korea, and Vietnam numbered 9.4 million in 2014. The majority of veterans who served during these three periods combined are now age 65 or over (and all are over 55), yet 28.3% remain in the labor force Table 1: Employment Status of Veterans 18 Years and Over 2014 annual averages for MAP states Civilian Labor Force Employed State Civilian Noninstitutional Population Participation Rate Total Unemployed Employmentto-Population Ratio Total Total Not in Labor Force Rate Veterans U.S. Arizona 21229 10744 50.6 10171 47.9 573 5.3 10485 540 285 52.7 268 49.7 16 5.7 256 1815 871 48 806 44.4 64 7.4 944 Colorado 419 232 55.5 219 52.3 14 5.9 186 Idaho 127 58 45.6 57 44.6 1 2.3 69 Nevada 256 135 52.8 126 49.1 10 7.1 121 New Mexico 182 81 44.8 77 42.4 4 5.3 100 California Oregon 359 168 46.8 156 43.5 12 7.1 191 Texas 1642 927 56.5 889 54.2 38 4.1 714 Utah 141 77 54.4 73 51.7 4 4.9 64 Washington 625 324 51.9 303 48.5 21 6.4 301 217820 143207 65.7 134589 61.8 8618 6 74613 4419 2771 62.7 2580 58.4 191 6.9 1648 California 27007 17654 65.4 16359 60.6 1295 7.3 9353 Colorado 3564 2544 71.4 2430 68.2 115 4.5 1019 Idaho 1039 697 67.1 665 64 32 4.5 342 Nevada 1867 1245 66.7 1151 61.6 94 7.6 622 New Mexico 1363 826 60.6 769 56.4 57 6.9 538 Nonveterans U.S. Arizona Oregon 2706 1750 64.7 1633 60.4 117 6.7 955 Texas 17568 11969 68.1 11379 64.8 591 4.9 5599 Utah 1868 1313 70.3 1266 67.8 47 3.6 555 Washington 4707 3121 66.3 2933 62.3 187 6 1586 ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Table 2: Veteran Service Periods Defined Gulf War era II September 2001 – present Gulf War era I August 1990 – August 2001 Vietnam era August 1964 – April 1975 Korean War July 1950 – January 1955 World War II December 1941 – December 1946 Other service periods All other time periods Although a smaller portion of the labor force than men, women’s participation rate is much higher at 62.8% of female veterans in the labor force compared to 49.2% of male veterans. and only 5% are unemployed. There are 6.5 million Gulf War era veterans, divided almost equally between era I and era II, and 5.3 million veterans who served in other service periods. Other service periods includes those who served on active duty between the Korean War and Vietnam era or between Vietnam and the first Gulf War. Veterans who served in more than one wartime period are classified in the most recent one. Table 2 lists the dates which define each period of service and Table 3 displays employment by period of service. Overall, women make up 10.4% of veterans. The percent of women who are veterans varies greatly depending on the service period. Less than 4% of WWII, Korean, and Vietnam era veterans are women, while that figure goes up to 11% for other service periods, 19% for Gulf War era I, and 19.9% for Gulf War era II. Although women veterans comprise a smaller portion of the labor force than men, their participation rate is much higher, with 62.8% of female veterans in the labor force compared to 49.2% of male veterans. Female veterans are also more likely to be in the labor force than their nonveteran counterparts. The reverse is true for male veterans, as they are less likely to be in the labor force than men who have never served. Veterans of all races had lower rates of unemployment in 2014 than their nonveteran counterparts of the same race or ethnicity (Table 4). Veterans are far more likely than nonveterans to be employed in the government sector, particularly in federal government jobs. This has held true through every report since the first one in 1993. In 2014, the two other industries that employed a larger percentage of veterans than nonveterans were transportation and utilities as well as manufacturing. Industries that had fewer veterans were education Table 3: Veteran Employment by Period of Service Civilian Labor Force Employed Service era Civilian Noninstitutional Population Total Participation Rate Total Unemployed Employmentto-Population Ratio Total Not in Labor Force Rate Persons (thousands) Total, 18 years and over 239,049 153,951 64.4 144,760 60.6 9,191 6.0 85,098 Total, Veterans 21,229 10,744 50.6 10,171 Total, Gulf War 6,540 5,302 81.1 5,003 47.9 573 5.3 10,485 76.5 298 5.6 1,238 Gulf War era II 3,185 2,535 79.6 2,353 73.9 182 7.2 649 Gulf War era I 3,356 2,766 82.4 2,650 WW II, Korean War, and Vietnam era 9,372 2,654 28.3 2,522 79.0 117 4.2 589 26.9 132 5.0 6,718 Other service periods 5,317 2,788 52.4 2,645 49.7 143 5.1 2,529 Nonveterans 217,820 143,207 65.7 134,589 61.8 8,618 6.0 74,613 Note: Veterans are men and women who served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and were not on active duty at the time of the survey. 6 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue and health services, leisure and hospitality, financial activities, and retail trade. Veterans were slightly more inclined to be self-employed in 2014 (Table 5). Demographic Data for Veterans in Arizona While the Employment Situation of Veterans report does not provide detail for states, we can find demographic information on veterans in Arizona using 2013 American Community Survey five-year estimates from the Census Bureau, which is the latest data available. There are some interesting points concerning the veteran population in Arizona. Arizona veterans are more educated than the general population. In 2013, 29.4% of Arizona veterans had a bachelor’s degree or better. This is higher than the total population for the state, at 26.9%, and even the nation, at 28.8%. It is also higher than the 26.3% reported for veterans in the U.S. Just as Arizona has a higher percent of the population that is Hispanic or Latino than the U.S. as a whole, the state also has a 29.4% of Arizona’s veterans held a bachelor’s degree or better in 2013, compared to 26.3% for U.S. veterans as a whole, Arizona’s population average of 26.9%, and the national average of 28.8%. Table 4: Employment Status of Veterans for U.S. by Demographics 2014 annual averages Total Men Women White Black Asian Hispanic Veterans (thousands) Civilian noninstitutional population 21,229 19,023 2,206 17,786 2,516 335 1,395 Civilian labor force 10,744 9,358 1,386 8,735 1,445 217 897 50.6 49.2 62.8 49.1 57.4 64.9 64 10,171 8,868 1,303 8,317 1,334 207 841 Employmentpopulation ratio 47.9 46.6 59 46.8 53 61.8 60.3 Unemployed 573 490 83 418 111 10 56 Unemployment rate 5.3 5.2 6.0 4.8 7.7 4.7 6.3 10,485 9,664 821 9,050 1,071 118 498 Total Men Women White Black Asian Hispanic Civilian noninstitutional population 217,820 96,213 121,607 171,062 27,047 12,952 34,938 Civilian labor force 143,207 72,565 70,641 113,001 17,253 8,434 24,055 Participation rate Employed Not in labor force Nonveterans (thousands) Participation rate Employed Employment-topopulation ratio Unemployed Unemployment rate Not in labor force 65.7 75.4 58.1 66.1 63.8 65.1 68.9 134,589 68,095 66,494 107,182 15,309 8,019 22,327 61.8 70.8 54.7 62.7 56.6 61.9 63.9 8,618 4,470 4,148 5,819 1,944 414 1,727 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.1 11.3 5.3 7.2 74,613 23,647 50,966 58,062 9,794 4,519 10,883 Note: Veterans are men and women who served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and were not on active duty at the time of the survey. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy than the nation. The largest percentage of veterans here by far served during the Vietnam era, Figure 1. higher percentage of veterans in that are Hispanic or Latino compared to the nation. The percent of Arizona’s veterans that are Hispanic or Latino is 10.6% compared to 5.6% nationally. We also have a higher percentage of American Indian and Alaska Native veterans than the nation (2.1% in AZ and 0.7% in the U.S.). Photo courtesty of Shutterstock.com To learn more about veteran employment and demographics, you can visit the sources for this article. They are the Employment Situation of Veterans, 2014 and the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, table S2101 (Veteran Status) on American FactFinder. Arizona closely mirrors the U.S. in the composition of veterans by service period. The state has 1% more Korean War veterans Table 5: Veteran and Nonveteran Employment by Industry Industry Veterans Total employed (in thousands) Nonveterans 10,171 134,589 composition of Veterans by service period… As a percent of total employed Total employed 100.0 100.0 1.7 1.5 98.3 98.5 71.1 79.1 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 1.4 0.7 Construction 5.6 5.3 12.5 10.0 Wholesale trade 2.7 2.4 Retail trade 8.9 10.8 Transportation and utilities 7.0 3.9 Information 2.0 1.9 Financial activities 4.4 6.3 10.6 10.0 Education and health services 8.7 15.3 Leisure and hospitality 4.0 8.3 Agriculture and related industries Nonagricultural industries Private industries Manufacturing Professional and business services Other services 3.3 4.2 Government 20.7 13.5 Federal 8.7 2.0 State 4.6 4.3 Local Self-employed workers, unincorporated 8 Arizona closely mirrors the U.S. in the 7.4 7.2 6.5 5.9 The largest percentage of veterans here by far served during the Vietnam era. Figure 1: Arizona Veterans by Service Period 15% Gulf War era II 12% Gulf War era I 8% 17% Vietnam era Korean War 13% World War II 35% Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona Other service periods July, 2015 Summer Issue Forecast Tables Arizona Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population, July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago Residential Building Permits (units)   % Chg from Year Ago Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil)   % Chg from Prior Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 255,089 265,068 277,427 294,170 312,126 330,910 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 88,537 89,760 94,712 100,308 106,583 112,437 3.4% 1.4% 5.5% 5.9% 6.3% 5.5% 2,568.3 1.9% 6,667,241 2,626.5 2.3% 6,762,866 2,689.9 2.4% 6,869,482 2,767.5 2.9% 6,994,816 2,844.7 2.8% 7,122,874 2,924.1 2.8% 7,252,230 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 27,254 28,089 33,175 42,202 46,171 48,066 8.1% 3.1% 18.1% 27.2% 9.4% 4.1% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 177,934 186,188 195,568 207,551 220,848 235,299 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5% 61,909 62,784 66,300 70,631 75,234 79,533 3.8% 1.4% 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 5.7% 1,853.0 1,903.5 1,956.5 2,012.7 2,072.2 2,139.6 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 4,404.9 4,477.2 4,554.2 4,648.9 4,755.2 4,865.7 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 20,352 21,798 24,960 32,038 36,042 37,484   % Chg from Prior 8.6% 7.1% 14.5% 28.4% 12.5% 4.0% Tucson MSA 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Personal Income ($ mil) 38,026 39,052 40,489 42,637 44,967 47,303   % Chg from Year Ago 3.0% 2.7% 3.7% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% Residential Building Permits (units) Retail Sales ($ mil) 12,574 12,572 13,160 13,767 14,436 15,053   % Chg from Year Ago 1.6% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.9% 4.3% Total Nonfarm Employment (000s) 365.0 368.4 373.6 379.9 386.4 393.2   % Chg from Year Ago 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1,007.2 1,015.4 1,025.0 1,038.2 1,052.7 1,067.7 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% Residential Permits (units) 3,279 3,329 3,844 4,536 4,819 4,916   % Chg from Year Ago -6.1% 1.5% 15.5% 18.0% 6.2% 2.0% Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago >>Need More? Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as, quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075. The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force   % Chg from Year Ago Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate 3,123.6 3,146.5 3,159.5 3,161.7 3,164.2 2.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2,916.0 2,938.6 2,953.1 2,965.6 2,973.1 207.5 207.9 206.4 196.1 191.1 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.0 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS Total   % Chg from Year Ago Total Private   % Chg from Year Ago Goods Producing Mining and Logging 2,611.9 2,622.1 2,618.5 2,614.9 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2,196.2 2,204.8 2,210.7 2,206.3 2,201.5 2.7% 296.0 3.3% 299.3 3.2% 298.9 3.0% 297.5 2.5% 296.0 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 Construction 126.7 129.6 128.6 128.0 128.0 Manufacturing 156.1 156.6 157.3 156.6 155.1 119.9 120.1 120.6 120.2 119.6 36.2 36.5 36.7 36.4 35.5 2,311.3 2,312.6 2,323.2 2,321.0 2,318.9 1,900.2 1,905.5 1,911.8 1,908.8 1,905.5 Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Wholesale Trade 94.4 93.0 92.7 93.5 92.1 316.8 313.7 318.1 317.8 316.0 Transportation and Utilities 90.4 90.7 90.0 90.7 89.4 Information 42.7 42.4 43.0 43.1 43.5 142.6 143.2 144.4 144.9 145.3 47.9 47.2 47.4 47.5 48.1 391.8 395.4 395.9 391.1 391.8 130.8 129.4 132.9 133.7 132.8 Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional and Business Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Government   % Chg from Year Ago 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 231.5 236.1 233.0 227.3 229.0 60.7 61.8 61.1 61.2 60.5 329.2 329.3 329.9 330.8 330.8 40.1 39.3 39.3 39.5 38.7 252.5 255.4 255.3 253.7 254.6 91.1 94.1 94.7 95.0 94.7 411.1 407.1 411.4 412.2 413.4 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% Federal Government 54.6 54.5 54.5 54.5 55.4 State Government 85.7 86.5 86.7 87.2 87.4 270.8 266.1 270.2 270.5 270.6 Local Government 10 2,607.3 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 22.5 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 -3.4% -1.5% -1.0% -0.4% 0.3% 23.9 23.7 23.1 23.1 23.5 Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Total Private   % Chg from Year Ago Construction Manufacturing 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.8 Financial Activities 25.9 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.4 Professional and Business Services 24.0 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20.3 20.8 20.9 20.4 20.5 Education and Health Services 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.0 14.0 8,916,398.3 7,046,833.0 7,515,968.4 8,404,632.7 Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC*   % Chg from Year Ago -2.3% 2.5% 4.4% 6.0% Retail Sales 6,171,403.2 4,573,729.2 4,885,413.4 5,552,818.8 Food, EBRC** 1,073,209.7 1,077,174.0 1,081,508.7 1,082,721.3 Restaurants & Bars 1,090,947.0 945,795.0 1,094,027.8 1,159,773.4 Gasoline, EBRC*** 580,838.5 450,134.8 455,018.5 609,319.2 Gallons, ADOT 230,949.7 228,843.3 216,366.4 245,990.8 Utilities 699,876.0 753,459.3 666,149.6 636,374.6 Communications 216,881.1 194,545.8 215,068.3 215,115.3 Amusements 99,070.4 107,298.4 216,806.4 128,730.3 291,690.0 297,603.8 309,708.8 345,220.4 Contracting 984,258.1 703,494.0 786,179.2 742,086.2 Hotel/Motel 170,044.5 270,055.6 298,674.7 377,327.0 8,930.4 7,321.7 9,493.0 9,785.5 Mining Severance 97,422.0 58,318.4 39,272.1 68,935.2 Printing 18,496.2 21,454.1 18,625.1 21,110.8 Rentals Personal Property Mining, Oil, & Gas Production Publishing 8,530.3 10,277.8 8,969.9 9,089.8 504,356.4 426,508.9 422,848.2 421,592.2 2987 1712 2144 2699 3080   % Chg from Year Ago 6.5% -1.3% -14.1% -13.7% 14.6% Single Family Units 1473 1246 1438 1918 7.6% -4.5% 7.1% 34.0% 52 52 17 56 1462 414 689 725 Use Tax New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units   % Chg from Year Ago 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District Total   % Chg from Year Ago Chapter 7 Chapter 11 1239 979 1061 1631 1637 -12.2% -24.5% -22.3% -13.9% -16.5% 1036 781 880 1432 1423 21 22 13 10 17 Chapter 13 182 176 168 189 197 *EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona), Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax rate on gasoline (ADOR). **estimated by EBRC. ***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR). ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators 2010 Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 6,401.6 6,438.2 6,498.6 6,581.1 6,667.2 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC Population* % Chg from Year Ago Resident Births 22.4 21.4 21.2 21.4 21.4 Birth Rate** 13.6 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.0 Resident Deaths Net Migration** 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.2 -16.6 10.9 34.2 48.5 55.4 *This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC feels this figure is more accurate. **Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services. Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC* % Chg from Year Ago Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA** % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 34,031.6 35,680.8 36,920.3 37,238.8 38,260.0 0.8%   4.8%   3.5%   0.9%   2.7%   46,783 48,081 49,335 49,981 1.9%   2.8%   2.6%   1.3%   217,855.6 229,719.2 239,929.3 245,070.5 Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA*** Total Personal Income % Chg from Year Ago 255,088.7 1.0%   5.4%   4.4%   2.1%   4.1%   149,982.1 156,986.4 163,835.2 169,520.8 175,779.4 17,263.8 16,012.8 16,560.1 19,335.8 20,208.3 684.8 714.4 771.8 781.0 838.4 133,403.1 141,688.0 148,046.9 150,965.9 156,409.4 36,940.9 40,521.0 44,062.8 45,102.0 46,743.9 47,511.7 47,510.1 47,819.6 49,002.5 51,935.3 109,293.1 113,663.4 119,043.1 122,564.2 127,250.4 -0.4%   4.0%   4.7%   3.0%   3.8%   Supplements to wages and salaries 25,650.9 26,544.4 26,824.7 27,751.9 28,573.3 Proprietors' income 15,038.1 16,778.6 17,967.4 19,204.7 19,955.7 Earnings by place of work Less: Contributions for government social insurance Plus: Adjustment for residence Equals: Net earnings by place of residence Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent Plus: Personal current transfer receipts Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA*** Total Wages and salaries % Chg from Year Ago Farm Nonfarm 222.4 691.4 231.0 293.2 344.2 14,815.7 16,087.2 17,736.4 18,911.5 19,611.5 *EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate. **Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Both employment for wages and salaries and proprietors’ employment are included. ***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component” 12 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Travel and Tourism (monthly data) Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 16,267,351 14,881,147 13,386,311 15,390,857 2.0% 4.4% 5.5% 4.7% Apr 2015 International Border Crossings, BTS Total % Chg from Year Ago Pedestrians Personal Vehicle Passengers 3,815,655 3,332,979 3,207,302 3,595,627 12,207,554 11,321,835 10,020,758 11,571,613 244,142 226,333 158,251 223,617 825 774 778 850 Bus Passengers Trains % Chg from Year Ago 5.9% 3.1% -39.0% 3.7% 431,463 447,705 434,241 490,307 8.2% 1.0% 2.8% 4.8% Leisure and Hospitality 290.6 290.6 295.7 300.2 301.1 % Chg from Year Ago 3.5% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 2.9% Trucks % Chg from Year Ago Hospitality Employment (000s, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Accommodation 43.7 44.1 44.1 45.0 45.7 1.9% 3.8% 1.4% 1.1% 2.0% 170,044.5 270,055.6 298,674.7 377,327.0 14.6% 32.4% 20.0% 14.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20,082.5 19,339.1 19,030.6 19,221.3 20,705.7 -3.6% -3.7% -1.6% 1.0% 7.7% 17,328.9 16,856.6 16,552.4 16,626.2 18,029.4 -3.4% -2.7% -1.8% 0.4% 8.4% % Chg from Year Ago Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Hotel/Motel % Chg from Year Ago Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont. Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB Total Arizona % Chg from Year Ago Northern Arizona % Chg from Year Ago Historical 1,296.1 1,327.8 1,147.4 1,070.3 1,114.5 Scenic 1,939.5 1,726.3 1,729.7 1,869.3 1,903.1 Water-based 9,735.4 9,338.3 9,035.3 9,034.9 9,979.1 Southern Arizona 2,753.6 2,482.5 2,478.2 2,595.1 2,676.3 -4.4% -9.8% -0.2% 4.7% 3.1% 426.9 438.1 382.2 359.4 384.8 1,939.5 1,726.3 1,729.7 1,866.6 387.2 318.1 366.3 366.4 388.4 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 234.68 235.19 235.74 235.98 % Chg from Year Ago Historical Scenic Water-based Inflation and Prices U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seas. adj.), BLS All Urban Consumers: All Items   % Chg from Year Ago Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items   % Chg from Year Ago U.S. Producer Price Index: All Commodities (seas. adj.), BLS   % Chg from Year Ago -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 238.32 239.75 241.69 242.30 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 192.00 191.10 191.60 190.70 192.90 -5.8% -7.1% -7.4% -8.5% -7.3% ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 2,140.7 2,154.3 2,156.9 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 2,150.0 2,160.2 5.5 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.9 1,912.5 1,881.2 1,902.9 1,905.2 1,906.6 1,670.1 1,647.8 1,658.7 1,661.6 1,662.3 242.4 233.4 244.2 243.6 244.3 23.9 23.2 23.8 23.9 23.9 7,428,498.4 5,996,238.9 6,461,249.0 6,977,848.7 2,423 1,210 1,588 2,075 2,415 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** Consumer Price Index (Phx-Mesa-Glndle MSA) All Urban Consumers: All items, BLS   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4,200,427 4,227,601 4,273,897 4,338,672 4,404,888 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 148,818,951 158,157,229 166,556,387 170,430,508 1.1% 6.3% 5.3% 2.3% 35,429.5 37,410.6 38,970.6 39,281.7 118.23 121.48 124.20 125.78 127.82 0.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.6% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Tucson MSA (Pima County)- Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 465,594 470,337 468,799 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 469,066 470,232 5.7 5.9 5.6 4.9 5.1 373.2 368.5 370.9 373.1 372.1 294.3 291.2 292.0 294.1 292.8 78.9 77.3 78.9 79.0 79.3 21.8 21.4 21.7 21.6 21.6 1,407,929.6 1,134,783.2 1,193,953.1 1,286,206.6 286 227 291 300 291 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Tucson MSA (Pima County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 981,168 986,081 990,380 996,046 1,007,162 -0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 33,883,172 35,132,468 36,412,855 36,935,363 0.5% 3.7% 3.6% 1.4% 34,534 35,628 36,767 37,082 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 0.9% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. 14 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Note our readers: For the MSAs and counties which follow, EBRC “taxable sales” (accrual basis) only run through September of 2014, hence that line is currently blank. This is due to a delay in reporting from the Arizona Department of Revenue. We hope to have this remedied in the next issue. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 71.2 71.8 71.9 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 72.1 73.4 7.2 7.5 6.9 5.9 5.7 64.1 63.5 64.4 65.1 66.3 Private 45.0 43.9 44.5 45.0 46.1 Government 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.98 17.86 17.94 17.87 18.16 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($ Accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 224,957,431.0 182,210,470.0 186,504,566.0 219,776,545.0 28 12 17 17 33 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 134,679 134,162 134,313 135,695 139,372 0.8% -0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 2.7% 4,529,627 4,631,539 4,746,702 4,906,294 0.1% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 33,632.8 34,522.0 35,340.6 36,156.8 -0.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($ accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 78.2 79.4 79.4 78.8 79.1 8.4 9.0 8.7 7.5 7.5 47.0 47.4 47.1 46.7 46.4 39.0 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.1 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.8 19.36 19.75 19.10 19.16 18.99 231,416,850.0 195,182,468.0 214,166,001.0 227,544,669.0 43 48 43 68 56 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Annual Data Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income, BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 75,210 75,840 77,683 77,900 77,922 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 5,232,506 5,407,834 5,546,309 5,679,043 1.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.4% 26,150 26,983 27,312 27,894 1.5% 3.2% 1.2% 2.1% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 96.2 98.1 97.9 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 97.6 98.7 5.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 5.2 60.7 61.1 61.1 61.0 60.9 Private 50.1 49.7 50.0 50.2 50.7 Government 10.6 10.7 11.2 11.1 11.1 18.19 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 17.89 17.60 18.42 18.68 285,763.9 238,227.0 244,150.2 273,225.7 76 72 77 70 90 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 210,899 211,247 211,583 213,294 215,357 -0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 6,245,478 6,498,204 6,800,376 6,992,574   % Chg from Year Ago -0.4% 4.1% 4.7% 2.8% Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** 29,614 30,761 32,140 32,784 0.0% 3.9% 4.5% 2.0%   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 51.0 50.9 50.9 50.6 50.8 7.8 8.3 7.8 6.9 7.1 35.0 34.2 34.8 34.5 34.4 23.1 22.8 22.9 22.8 22.6 11.9 11.4 11.9 11.7 11.8 19.88 20.48 20.43 20.37 20.65 212,406.1 140,679.6 145,124.8 170,916.2 18.0 19.0 14.0 20.0 25.0 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, ADOA* 51,329 50,893 50,908 51,269 51,104 -3.6% -0.9% 0.0% 0.7% -0.3% 4,695,244 4,869,173 4,803,928 4,740,219 2.2% 3.7% -1.3% -1.3% 35,723 37,301 36,741 36,211 1.4% 4.4% -1.5% -1.4%   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000)   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)**   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 91.8 88.5 87.7 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 87.0 91.2 20.1 19.9 19.4 16.8 22.2 53.4 52.3 53.0 52.7 51.4 Private 38.3 37.9 38.1 37.9 36.6 Government 15.1 14.4 14.9 14.8 14.8 20.48 Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 20.17 19.97 20.37 20.66 244,755.4 203,673.0 235,632.5 244,653.7 36.0 47.0 47.0 62.0 68.0 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, ADOA* 60,057 60,522 61,500 63,007 63,718   % Chg from Year Ago -0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 5,289,911 5,512,842 5,427,233 5,529,669 2.5% 4.2% -1.6% 1.9% 26,967 27,505 26,452 26,417 1.7% 2.0% -3.8% -0.1% Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data Total Personal Income ($000)   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)**   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 inhabitants. EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona. MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation NPS: National Parks Service * All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.8 20.6 Unemployment Rate 15.3 15.0 15.4 15.3 14.8 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 18.0 17.9 18.0 17.8 17.8 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.1 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 Apache County Summary - Monthly Data Private Government Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Gila County (Payson Micropolitan Area) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 22.3 22.1 22.1 21.3 21.1 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.8 8.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.9 Private 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 Government 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 7 3 2 7 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 16.6 16.6 16.5 14.1 14.5 Unemployment Rate 7.0 6.8 6.9 8.1 7.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.8 Private 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Government 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.0 Graham County Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.1 Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.3 6.2 8.1 7.9 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Private 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Government 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Greenlee County Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July, 2015 Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 7.0 8.8 5.1 7.2 8.5 5.2 7.1 8.8 5.2 7.9 8.7 5.2 7.8 8.7 5.2 Private 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Government 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 La Paz County Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 37.8 37.5 37.4 41.0 40.7 Unemployment Rate 11.2 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.2 Private Government 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.3 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.9 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 8 7 4 4 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 17.2 17.3 17.4 20.6 20.4 Unemployment Rate 16.7 14.3 13.8 11.3 10.9 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly Data 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.9 Private 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 Government 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 7 4 4 6 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 July, 2015 Summer Issue ARIZONA’S ECONOMY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108 George W. Hammond, Ph. D. 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