April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona’s Economy Economic and business research center Desert Bloom? Arizona’s Economy Seeks its Place in the Sun By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Director and Research Professor March 1, 2015 As Exhibit 1 shows, the state’s overthe-year job gains were close to, or even below, the national average for much of 2014. Keep in mind that the exhibit reflects Arizona job growth measured by EBRC’s benchmark, which incorporates data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages through June 2014. S luggish gains in Arizona employment, income, and retail sales continued in the fourth quarter of 2014. Overall, the state is growing at rates that are in the neighborhood of the nation, but that are still well below our own past history. of buildings. Part of this is related to residential activity. As Exhibit 2 shows, state housing permits rose rapidly in 2012 and into early 2013, but thereafter growth slowed. Further, gains in 2014 were driven entirely by multi-family activity, because single-family permits declined. Overall, the state added 41,800 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the last quarter of 2013. That translated into a job growth rate of 1.6% over the year, which was below the national growth rate of 2.1%. Construction activity remains a key concern for state growth. Recently the state has lost construction jobs, which reflects weakness in the construction The preliminary data suggest that Arizona housing permits rose by 9.9% in 2014, or roughly 2,500. Multi-family permits were up by 47.3% for the year, while singlefamily permits declined by 3.9%. The strength in multi-family permits reflects rising single-family house prices, still tight mortgage lending conditions, and demographic factors. Housing activity has been sluggish in part because of weak population and household growth. According to the Exhibit 1: Arizona’s Job Growth Still Sluggish at the end of 2014 Over-the-Year Job Growth by Month What is holding the state back? First, population growth is positive but slow and this is contributing to an unusually weak housing/construction recovery. Second, federal fiscal drag continues to weigh on the state economy. The outlook calls for the state to gradually gain momentum in coming years, with help from lower gasoline prices, faster national growth, and a bit less federal fiscal drag. percent 8 6 4 2 0 -2 U.S. Arizona Arizona Recent Developments -4 -6 -8 Arizona added jobs during the final three months of 2014, but at a moderate pace. In this issue 05 06 Desert Bloom? Arizona’s Economy Seeks its Place in the Sun First Quarter 2015 Forecast Update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 IMMEX – Mexico’s Export-Oriented Manufacturing and Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 -10 Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Arizona Economic Indicators: State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Arizona’s Economy 2014 gains in Exhibit 2: Residential Construction Growth Driven by Multi-Family Activity Arizona Single and Multi-Family Permits housing construction were driven entirely by multi-family activity. permits seasonally adjusted annual rates 40,000 Single-Family 35,000 Multi-Family This reflects rising 30,000 single-family house 25,000 prices, still-tight 20,000 mortgage lending and 15,000 demographic factors. 10,000 11 12 Arizona Department of Administration, the state added 86,200 residents between July 2013 and July 2014. That translated into a rate of growth of 1.3%, which exceeded U.S. growth of 0.7%. Population in the Phoenix MSA rose by 1.5% in 2014 and 1.1% in the Tucson MSA. Both natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration contributed to growth during the past year. Continued job and population growth have contributed to personal income gains in Arizona. While Arizona personal income rose at a faster rate than the nation last year, growth was not very rapid by historical standards. For instance, real personal income growth in the state during the past four quarters was 2.2% (U.S. consumer price inflation was 1.8%). That was far below the state’s average rate during the 30 years before the Great Recession, of 4.8% per year. Unspectacular income gains lately have resulted in similarly uninspiring gains in retail sales. Taxable retail sales less food was up 4.7% year to date through November. The annual growth rate for 2014 is likely to be lower because of a large one-time transfer into the category in December 2013. Taxable sales at restaurants and bars were up 8.2% year to date through November. 2 13 14 5,000 One hopeful sign for retail sales growth in 2015 is the massive decline in gasoline prices since last summer. Indeed, Phoenix gas prices dropped from $3.41/gallon in June 2014 to $2.16/gallon in January 2015. That translated into a 36.7% drop. On an inflation-adjusted basis, Phoenix gas prices have been gradually trending down since 2012 and are now at levels last seen in 2010, as shown in Exhibit 3. U.S. gas prices followed a similar trend. Since gasoline purchases make up a significant share of household budgets, this may free up resources for households to spend on other priorities. Arizona Outlook The Arizona outlook calls for the state to add jobs, residents, and income at a gradually accelerating pace, as Exhibit 4 illustrates. Stronger gains reflect rising residential mobility across the U.S., reduced federal fiscal drag, and the positive impact of lower gasoline prices. The forecast calls for job growth to accelerate from 1.7% in 2014 to 2.1% in 2015 and eventually to 2.8% by 2017. Most of the job gains during the period are expected in service-providing sectors, particularly trade, transportation, and utilities; professional and business services; education and health services; and leisure Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Exhibit 3: Real Gasoline Prices Have Been Trending Down Phoenix Inflation-Adjusted Gasoline Prices 1982-84 $/gal 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 00 02 04 06 08 and hospitality. These four sectors alone account for 68.3% of net job growth during the next three years. 10 12 14 0.6 4.6% in 2016, and 6.1% in 2017. Rising wage gains contribute to the acceleration, as do growth in asset and transfer income. Personal income gains are expected to exceed both population growth and inflation, which implies a gradually rising standard of living. Arizona’s population gains are expected to accelerate in the near future. In turn, rising population gains push construction activity higher during the forecast. Total housing permits are forecast to rise from 26,600 in 2014 to 41,400 by 2017, with increased single and multi-family activity. In turn, rising construction activity drives construction jobs up by nearly 16,000 between 2014 and 2017. The outlook for the Phoenix and Tucson MSAs calls for growth to rebound modestly during the next three years. The Phoenix MSA is expected to outpace the Tucson MSA, which will continue to battle the effects of reduced federal spending. Job growth accelerates from 1.7% in 2014 to 2.8% by 2017 which boosts income levels above both population growth and inflation, leading to a rising standard of living. Accelerating job gains boost income levels during the forecast. Arizona personal income is forecast to rise by 3.6% in 2015, Exhibit 4: Arizona Forecast Summary Actual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nonfarm Jobs 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.8 Growth Rate Personal Income 3.9 3.6 4.6 6.1 Retail Sales Less Food 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 Population 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 Level Unempl. Rate Housing Permits 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.1 26,648 28,575 33,664 41,364 * Personal income, retail sales, and housing permits are forecast. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 Arizona’s Economy IMMEX – Mexico’s Export-Oriented Manufacturing and Services by Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D. In 2006, the Mexican government formed IMMEX by merging its two export promoting programs, the Maquiladora program and PITEX. These two programs together accounted for more than 60 percent of Mexico’s total manufacturing employment. I n 2006, the Mexican government merged two existing programs designed to promote exports, Maquiladora and PITEX (Programa de Importación Temporal para Producir Articulos de Exportación)into a single new program, IMMEX (Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación). The Maquiladora Program, initiated in the mid-1960s as assembly platforms for U.S. manufacturing, continued to grow under NAFTA, and by 2006 employed 1.2 million workers. PITEX was established in 1990 and by 2006 numbered 3,620 firms and included all motor vehicle assembly plants and most of their parts suppliers in Mexico. The overwhelming majority of Maquiladora plants, 82 percent, were located in border states with only 18 percent located in interior states. In contrast, the majority of PITEX establishments, 65 percent, were located in interior states and 35 percent in border states. Together, Maquiladora and PITEX establishments were responsible for more than 60 percent of Mexico’s total manufacturing employment in 2006. IMMEX as a Source of Jobs and Foreign Currency Revenues By 2014, the IMMEX program included 6,171 establishments with a total of 2,464,669 employees. The IMMEX sector is the second most important source of foreign currency in Mexico after revenues from the exportation of crude oil. In the third quarter of 2014, IMMEX sector revenues were approximately $7 billion, an increase from the $6.5 billion of the previous year. In contrast, revenues from crude oil exports declined by more than $1 billion in 2014. The significance of the IMMEX sector for Arizona’s economy is primarily as a destination for Arizona manufacturing 4 products and as a market for Arizona business services. About 30 percent of maquiladoras in Sonora are owned by Arizona parent companies and through a production-sharing model remain competitive in global markets. Manufacturing establishments account for approximately 82 percent of the total number of establishments in the IMMEX program and 89 percent of total employment. Non-manufacturing activities, which include agriculture and mining, account for 18 percent of establishments and 11 percent of IMMEX employment. Manufacturing of Transportation Equipment Leads Of IMMEX manufacturing sectors, transportation equipment manufacturing, which includes Mexico’s burgeoning auto industry, is the strongest accounting for 16 percent of establishments, 32 percent of employment, and a full 44 percent of total IMMEX manufacturing sector revenues. In terms of employment, computer and electronic product manufacturing is in second place with 12 percent, while electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing follows in third place with 7 percent. Together, these top three sectors account for 51 percent of IMMEX manufacturing employment (Figure 1), 29 percent of establishments, and generate 51 percent of revenues. Agriculture Sector Leads IMMEX Non-Manufacturing Export Activities Non-manufacturing activities in the IMMEX program include establishments involved in agriculture, mining (except for oil and gas), trade of agriculture and forestry materials, Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue warehousing and storage, administrative and support services, waste management and remediation services, and other exportoriented non-manufacturing activities. Agriculture-based establishments account for 25 percent of all establishments, 51 percent of all employees, and 20 percent of total revenues, and thus represent the leading sector within the IMMEX nonmanufacturing program. Administrative and support services include the second largest number of establishments, account for the second largest revenues, but trail the mining sector in number of employees. Figure 2 shows the IMMEX program employment by non-manufacturing activities. throughout Mexico in comparison with the traditional maquiladora sector prior to 2006. Especially interesting is the rise of centrally located states Guanajuato, México, and Querétaro (Figure 3). However, Mexico’s six border states still account for approximately 60 percent of the IMMEX program’s establishments and employment. Baja California holds the first place with the largest number of establishments (about 18 percent of the total), while Chihuahua is number one with the largest number of employees in the Program (13 percent of the total). Sonora’s share is about 6 percent in both the number of establishments and number of employees. IMMEX Concentration in Mexico’s Border States Sonora and Sinaloa Lead IMMEX Non-Manufacturing Activities The inclusion of the auto industry (formerly within the PITEX program) and especially non-manufacturing activities is reflected in the more even distribution of employment In 2014, Sonora’s IMMEX Program employed more than 163,000 workers, of which 113,000 were employed in manufacturing and 50,000 in non-manufacturing Agriculturebased establishments account for 25 percent of all establishments, 51 percent of all employees, and 20 percent of total revenues, and thus represent the leading sector within the IMMEX non-manufacturing program. Figure 1: IMMEX Manufacturing Employment by Sector, 2014 Transportation equipment mfg % share of employees Computer & electronic product mfg 25.1 31.7 Electrical equipment, appliance, & component mfg Plastics & rubber products mfg Food manufacturing 1.2 Fabricated metal product mfg 2.7 Primary metal mfg 3.2 Chemical manufacturing 5.0 11.7 5.9 6.4 7.1 Beverage & tabacco product mfg Other Source: INEGI. Estadística Integral del programa de la Industria Manufacturera, maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX), Feb. 2015. Data are averages January-November 2014. www.inegi.org.mx ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 Arizona’s Economy Figure 2: IMMEX Non-Manufacturing Employment by Sector2014 % share of employees Agriculture 15.7 Mining (except oil and gas) 1.0 1.2 2.1 Administrative and support services 51.5 12.3 Waste management and remediation services Warehousing and storage Trade of agricultural and forestry materials Other 16.2 Source: INEGI. Estadística Integral del programa de la Industria Manufacturera, maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX), Feb. 2015. Data are averages January-November 2014. www.inegi.org.mx Figure 3: IMMEX Employment 2014 manufacturing and non-manufacturing Source: INEGI (different than the other figures). 6 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue establishments. While Sonora trails behind the other border states in manufacturing activities, Arizona’s neighboring state holds the top rank (18 percent of Mexico’s total) in non-manufacturing activities. The state of Sinaloa, a major source of winter fresh produce for the U.S., had over 45,000 employees in the IMMEX non-manufacturing services category (17 percent of Mexico’s total). Together these two states accounted for more than a third of IMMEX non-manufacturing employment. Arizona’s Locational Advantage Since the inception of the maquiladora model more than 40 years ago, Arizona’s companies have taken advantage of the geographical proximity to Mexico’s assembly/production plants, especially those located in neighboring Sonora. Whereas data on exports specifically to the maquiladora sector are not available, the top five manufacturing exports from Arizona to Mexico suggest a strong maquiladora (IMMEX) connection. Arizona’s top manufacturing exports to Mexico are: computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, machinery (excluding electrical); transportation equipment, and primary metal manufacturing. However, gauging from the dollar value of manufacturing exports coming from other states like Michigan, California, and Illinois that use Arizona’s border ports as gateways to Mexico, there are certainly untapped opportunities for Arizona’s companies to expand trade relationships with the IMMEX sector. For example, out of the total $10.3 billion in manufacturing exports moving through the Nogales port of entry, 34.6 percent originated in Michigan, 7.9 percent in California, and 3 percent in Illinois. Arizona’s share was 34.6 percent. There are certainly untapped opportunities for Arizona’s companies to expand trade relationships with the IMMEX sector. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Real-time Economic Data for Arizona in a New UA App! Search on “Arizona’s Economy” in the iTunes App Store or Google Play and download the new Arizona’s Economy mobile app for your iphone, ipad, or android phone today. >>Keeping Current Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller College of Management. For continuous updates of Arizona’s economic indicators, check out our website’s Indicators page: http://azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu/az_indicators/ There you can browse indicators by geography or topic and graph each series by clicking on the series title. If you wish to be notified each quarter when a new issue of Arizona’s Economy becomes available, please send an email to EBRPublications.eller.arizona.edu with your name and contact information. Please put “subscribe” in the header line. We do not share our mailing list. 8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Forecast Tables Arizona Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil)   % Chg from Prior Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 245,071 254,651 263,866 276,044 292,759 310,280 2.1% 3.9% 3.6% 4.6% 6.1% 6.0% 85,621 88,467 89,200 93,950 99,325 105,000 5.6% 3.3% 0.8% 5.3% 5.7% 5.7% 2,518.2 2.2% 6,581.1 2,562.1 1.7% 6,667.2 2,616.8 2.1% 6,763.7 2,676.2 2.3% 6,871.7 2,750.9 2.8% 6,994.1 2,827.1 2.8% 7,121.4 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% Residential Building Permits (units) 25,209 26,648 28,575 33,664 41,364 46,035   % Chg from Year Ago 16.0% 5.7% 7.2% 17.8% 22.9% 11.3% Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA Personal Income ($ mil)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mil)   % Chg from Prior Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)   % Chg from Year Ago Population (000s), July 1st estimates   % Chg from Year Ago 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 170,431 177,076 184,680 194,372 206,957 220,410 2.3% 3.9% 4.3% 5.3% 6.5% 6.5% 59,658 61,714 62,364 65,731 69,745 73,952 7.0% 3.4% 1.1% 5.4% 6.1% 6.0% 1,813.7 1,847.4 1,889.6 1,937.1 1,995.4 2,057.4 2.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1% 4,338.7 4,404.9 4,475.4 4,551.7 4,647.9 4,755.6 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% Residential Building Permits (units) 18,737 19,062 20,951 25,897 33,764 37,162   % Chg from Prior 17.3% 1.7% 9.9% 23.6% 30.4% 10.1% Tucson MSA 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 36,935 37,988 39,187 40,882 43,206 45,480 1.4% 2.8% 3.2% 4.3% 5.7% 5.3% Personal Income ($ mill)   % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales ($ mill) 12,378 12,482 12,406 12,998 13,663 14,286   % Chg from Year Ago 2.7% 0.8% -0.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.6% Nonfarm Employment (000s) 361.5 364.1 367.4 372.7 379.6 386.7   % Chg from Year Ago 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% Population (000s), July 1st estimates 996.0 1,007.2 1,018.1 1,029.2 1,042.9 1,057.6   % Chg from Year Ago 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 3,491 3,576 3,723 3,776 4,529 4,823 22.9% 2.4% 4.1% 1.4% 19.9% 6.5% Residential Building Permits (units)   % Chg from Year Ago >>Need More? Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as, quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075. The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Labor Force and Employment, SA Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Persons (000s, seasonally adjusted), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS Civilian Labor Force % Chg from Year Ago Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate 3,106.9 3,115.8 3,123.6 3,146.5 3,159.9 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.9% 3.1% 2,901.0 2,909.3 2,916.0 2,938.6 2,953.3 206.0 206.6 207.5 207.9 206.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 Employees on Non-agricultural Payrolls (000s, seasonally adjusted), Current Employment Statistics, BLS Total % Chg from Year Ago Total Private 2,589.3 2,598.6 2,607.3 2,611.9 2,624.2 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2,177.0 2,187.7 2,196.2 2,204.8 2,212.1 % Chg from Year Ago Goods Producing 2.3% 293.8 2.4% 295.7 2.7% 296.0 3.3% 299.3 3.3% 298.8 Mining and Logging 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.0 Construction 124.4 126.5 126.7 129.6 128.8 Manufacturing 156.3 156.2 156.1 156.6 157.0 120.8 120.4 119.9 120.1 120.4 35.5 35.8 36.2 36.5 36.6 2,295.5 2,302.9 2,311.3 2,312.6 2,325.4 1,883.2 1,892.0 1,900.2 1,905.5 1,913.3 Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Wholesale Trade 94.3 94.3 94.4 93.0 92.7 313.8 315.1 316.8 313.7 318.1 Transportation and Utilities 87.1 88.8 90.4 90.7 90.0 Information 43.1 43.0 42.7 42.4 42.9 Retail Trade Finance and Insurance 142.5 142.2 142.6 143.2 144.2 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 48.4 48.4 47.9 47.2 47.7 Professional and Business Services 386.5 389.5 391.8 395.4 395.7 129.2 129.4 130.8 129.4 132.2 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.9 29.9 227.4 230.5 231.5 236.1 233.6 59.8 60.1 60.7 61.8 61.1 326.7 327.3 329.2 329.3 330.8 39.3 39.7 40.1 39.3 40.0 252.1 252.8 252.5 255.4 255.4 89.6 90.8 91.1 94.1 94.7 412.3 410.9 411.1 407.1 412.1 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% Federal Government 54.5 54.5 54.6 54.5 54.5 State Government 87.4 86.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 270.4 270.4 270.8 266.1 270.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Government % Chg from Year Ago Local Government 10 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Earnings, Sales, Housing, Bankruptcy Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 22.7 22.8 22.5 22.9 23.0 -1.5% -1.8% -3.4% -1.5% -1.1% Average Hourly Earnings by Industry ($, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Total Private % Chg from Year Ago Construction 23.6 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.0 Manufacturing 24.4 24.5 24.3 24.4 24.8 Financial Activities 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.1 Professional and Business Services 25.3 25.5 24.0 25.9 26.2 20.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.8 Education and Health Services 24.5 24.7 25.0 24.8 24.7 Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 7,079,305.5 7,658,475.4 8,913,185.1 7,042,992.7 2.9% 4.6% -2.4% 2.5% 4,399,935.9 4,985,452.0 1,031,157.7 1,049,310.4 Restaurants & Bars 929,456.6 1,010,895.0 Gasoline, EBRC*** 712,042.4 605,267.6 Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales, EBRC* % Chg from Year Ago Retail Sales Food, EBRC** 228,365.1 220,820.0 Utilities Gallons, ADOT 868,281.0 647,778.8 Communications 221,243.7 204,853.8 82,814.9 89,336.5 Rentals Personal Property 303,666.4 273,946.6 Contracting 945,833.2 919,705.6 Hotel/Motel Amusements 218,326.7 191,366.5 Mining, Oil, & Gas Production 10,452.2 7,979.7 Mining Severance 87,969.8 95,819.0 Printing 21,379.7 24,829.2 Publishing 9,399.8 8,600.4 479,612.3 443,624.5 2019 1563 2987 1712 % Chg from Year Ago 20.8% 33.1% 6.5% -1.3% Single Family Units 1326 1051 1473 1246 -10.5% -0.6% 7.6% -4.5% 21 16 52 52 672 496 1462 414 Use Tax New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units % Chg from Year Ago 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court - Arizona District Total % Chg from Year Ago Chapter 7 Chapter 11 1504 1244 1239 979 -24.3% -20.3% -12.2% -24.5% 1303 1059 1036 781 18 13 21 22 Chapter 13 182 171 182 176 *EBRC estimates Aggregate Retail Sales by summing Retail Sales (ADOR), Food Sales estimated by EBRC (food is not taxable in Arizona), Restaurant and Bar Sales (ADOR), and Gasoline Sales estimated by EBRC using number of gallons sold in Arizona (ADOT) and current tax rate on gasoline (ADOR). **estimated by EBRC. ***estimated by EBRC using gallons sold (ADOT) and tax rate (ADOR). ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Demographics and Vital Statistics 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6,401.6 6,438.2 6,498.6 6,581.1 6,667.2 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% Demographics and Vital Statistics (July 1st Estimates, 000s), ADHS, ADOA & EBRC Population* % Chg from Year Ago Resident Births 22.4 21.4 21.2 21.4 21.4 Birth Rate** 13.6 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.0 Resident Deaths Net Migration** 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.3 -16.6 10.9 34.2 48.5 55.4 *This population figure is from the Arizona Dept. of Administration, rather than the official Census population count. EBRC feels this figure is more accurate. **Birth rate and net migration are both calculated by EBRC using data from the Arizona Dept. of Health Services. Arizona - Personal Income and Earnings Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC* % Chg from Year Ago Average Earnings per Job ($), BEA** % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 34,031.6 35,680.8 36,920.3 37,238.8 0.8% 4.8% 3.5% 0.9% 46,783 48,081 49,335 49,981 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.3% 217,855.6 229,719.2 239,929.3 245,070.5 Personal Income Derivation ($ millions), BEA*** Total Personal Income % Chg from Year Ago 255,088.7 1.0% 5.4% 4.4% 2.1% 4.1% 149,982.1 156,986.4 163,835.2 169,520.8 175,779.4 17,263.8 16,012.8 16,560.1 19,335.8 20,208.3 684.8 714.4 771.8 781.0 838.4 133,403.1 141,688.0 148,046.9 150,965.9 156,409.4 36,940.9 40,521.0 44,062.8 45,102.0 46,743.9 47,511.7 47,510.1 47,819.6 49,002.5 51,935.3 109,293.1 113,663.4 119,043.1 122,564.2 127,250.4 -0.4% 4.0% 4.7% 3.0% 3.8% Supplements to wages and salaries 25,650.9 26,544.4 26,824.7 27,751.9 28,573.3 Proprietors' income 15,038.1 16,778.6 17,967.4 19,204.7 19,955.7 Earnings by place of work Less: Contributions for government social insurance Plus: Adjustment for residence Equals: Net earnings by place of residence Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent Plus: Personal current transfer receipts Components of Earnings ($ millions), BEA*** Wages and salaries % Chg from Year Ago Farm Nonfarm 222.4 691.4 231.0 293.2 344.2 14,815.7 16,087.2 17,736.4 18,911.5 19,611.5 *EBRC calulates per capita personal income using total personal income from BEA divided by population estimates from ADOA. ADOA counts differ from official Census counts, but EBRC considers them more accurate. **Average earnings per job is total earnings divided by total full-time and part-time employment. Earnings is the sum of three components of personal income--wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Both employment for wages and salaries and proprietors’ employment are included. ***for detailed definitions, see BEA table SA4 “Personal Income and Employment by Major Component” 12 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona - Travel and Tourism (monthly data) Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 14,580,169 14,998,904 16,267,351 5.6% 6.6% 2.0% Jan 2015 Feb 2015 International Border Crossings, BTS Total % Chg from Year Ago Pedestrians Personal Vehicle Passengers 3,399,954 3,440,311 3,815,655 10,975,699 11,352,221 12,207,554 204,516 206,372 244,142 883 801 825 Bus Passengers Trains % Chg from Year Ago 5.6% -3.0% 5.9% 489,258 427,444 431,463 4.3% -0.3% 8.2% Leisure and Hospitality 288.8 290.6 290.6 290.6 296.5 % Chg from Year Ago 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 4.9% 4.0% Trucks % Chg from Year Ago Hospitality Employment (000s, not seasonally adjusted), BLS Accommodation 43.4 44.1 43.7 44.1 44.0 0.2% 2.1% 1.9% 3.8% 1.2% 218,326.7 191,366.5 11.4% 8.3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20,830.4 20,082.5 19,339.1 19,043.0 19,220.2 -0.1% -3.6% -3.7% -1.5% 0.9% 17,949.1 17,328.9 16,856.6 16,564.8 16,627.9 0.4% -3.5% -2.7% -1.7% 0.4% Historical 1,365.4 1,296.1 1,327.8 1,159.9 1,079.4 Scenic 6,182.3 6,297.4 6,190.5 6,369.7 6,500.4 Water-based 10,401.4 9,735.4 9,338.3 9,035.3 9,048.0 Southern Arizona 2,881.3 2,753.6 2,482.5 2,478.2 2,592.4 -3.2% -4.4% -9.8% -0.2% 4.6% 391.7 426.9 438.1 382.2 359.4 2,013.0 1,939.5 1,726.3 1,729.7 1,866.6 476.5 387.2 318.1 366.3 366.4 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 237.75 237.07 236.28 234.68 235.19 % Chg from Year Ago Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR Hotel/Motel % Chg from Year Ago Arizona - Travel and Tourism, cont. Visits (000s) Arizona State and National Parks, NPS & ASPB Total Arizona % Chg from Year Ago Northern Arizona % Chg from Year Ago % Chg from Year Ago Historical Scenic Water-based Inflation and Prices U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seas. adj.), BLS All Urban Consumers: All Items 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% -0.2% -0.1% Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items % Chg from Year Ago 241.65 240.22 239.10 238.32 239.75 % Chg from Year Ago U.S. Producer Price Index: All Commodities (seas. adj.), BLS % Chg from Year Ago 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 203.40 201.20 197.60 192.10 191.10 0.4% 0.0% -2.2% -5.7% -7.1% ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 2,141.1 2,144.7 2,141.7 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 2,154.3 2,157.2 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.8 5.4 1,883.7 1,906.4 1,912.5 1,881.2 1,903.6 1,640.2 1,661.7 1,670.1 1,647.8 1,659.1 243.5 244.7 242.4 233.4 244.5 23.2 23.8 23.9 2,423 1,210 1,588 23.6 23.6 6,079,498.6 6,313,914.2 1,368 1,043 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** Consumer Price Index (Phx-Mesa-Glndle MSA) All Urban Consumers: All items, BLS   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4,200,427 4,227,601 4,273,897 4,338,672 4,404,888 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 148,818,951 158,157,229 166,556,387 170,430,508 1.1% 6.3% 5.3% 2.3% 35,429.5 37,410.6 38,970.6 39,281.7 118.23 121.48 124.20 125.78 127.82 0.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.6% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Tucson MSA (Pima County)- Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 465,429 464,332 466,138 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 470,337 469,415 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.6 368.6 370.7 373.2 368.5 371.6 289.7 291.7 294.3 291.2 292.7 78.9 79.0 78.9 77.3 78.9 21.4 21.7 21.7 286 227 291 21.6 21.7 1,189,416.2 1,213,669.4 340 304 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Tucson MSA (Pima County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 981,168 986,081 990,380 996,046 1,007,162 -0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 33,883,172 35,132,468 36,412,855 36,935,363 0.5% 3.7% 3.6% 1.4% 34,534 35,628 36,767 37,082 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 0.9% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. 14 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Note our readers: For the MSAs and counties which follow, EBRC “taxable sales” (accrual basis) only run through September of 2014, hence that line is currently blank. This is due to a delay in reporting from the Arizona Department of Revenue. We hope to have this remedied in the next issue. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County)- Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 74.9 73.9 72.1 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 71.8 71.8 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.9 65.9 65.3 64.1 63.5 64.4 Private 45.4 45.0 45.0 43.9 44.5 Government 17.8 17.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.14 17.42 17.98 17.86 18.03 22 20 28 12 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($ Accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County)- Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC**   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 134,679 134,162 134,313 135,695 139,372 0.8% -0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 2.7% 4,529,627 4,631,539 4,746,702 4,906,294 0.1% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 33,632.8 34,522.0 35,340.6 36,156.8 -0.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 85.5 85.2 85.0 79.4 79.4 7.7 7.5 7.7 9.0 8.6 46.6 46.3 47.0 47.4 47.1 38.6 38.5 39.0 38.8 39.0 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.9 19.42 20.10 19.36 19.75 18.98 62 35 43 48 Taxable Sales: Total ($ accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave County) - Annual Data Population, July 1st estimate, ADOA   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income, BEA   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income, EBRC   % Chg from Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 75,210 75,840 77,683 77,900 77,922 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 5,232,506 5,407,834 5,546,309 5,679,043 1.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.4% 26,150 26,983 27,312 27,894 1.5% 3.2% 1.2% 2.1% *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 94.8 94.8 92.9 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 98.1 98.1 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.3 5.8 60.2 60.7 60.7 61.1 61.3 Private 49.7 50.2 50.1 49.7 50.2 Government 11.2 11.3 10.6 10.7 11.2 18.15 17.89 17.89 17.60 17.77 91 65 76 72 77 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) - Annual Data Population, ADOA*   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 210,899 211,247 211,583 213,294 215,357 -0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 6,245,478 6,498,204 6,800,376 6,992,574   % Chg from Year Ago -0.4% 4.1% 4.7% 2.8% Per Capita Personal Income ($), EBRC** 29,614 30,761 32,140 32,784 0.0% 3.9% 4.5% 2.0%   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 55.3 55.4 55.1 50.9 50.9 7.8 7.5 7.6 8.3 7.8 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.2 34.7 23.1 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.9 18.84 20.50 19.88 20.48 20.46 10 15 18 19 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Sierra Vista - Douglas MSA (Cochise County) Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, ADOA* 51,329 50,893 50,908 51,269 51,104 -3.6% -0.9% 0.0% 0.7% -0.3% 4,695,244 4,869,173 4,803,928 4,740,219 2.2% 3.7% -1.3% -1.3% 35,723 37,301 36,741 36,211 1.4% 4.4% -1.5% -1.4%   % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000)   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)**   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - MSAs Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 86.5 86.0 86.1 24.8 22.0 21.5 19.9 19.4 51.4 52.4 53.4 52.3 53.0 Private 36.3 37.3 38.3 37.9 38.1 Government 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.4 14.9 20.39 20.42 20.17 19.97 20.40 41 40 36 47 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private ($), BLS Jan 2015 Feb 2015 88.5 87.7 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona's "Transaction Privilege Tax," does not include food or gasoline sales. Yuma MSA (Yuma County) - Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, ADOA* 60,057 60,522 61,500 63,007 63,718   % Chg from Year Ago -0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 5,289,911 5,512,842 5,427,233 5,529,669 2.5% 4.2% -1.6% 1.9% 26,967 27,505 26,452 26,417 1.7% 2.0% -3.8% -0.1% Total Personal Income ($000)   % Chg from Year Ago Per Capita Personal Income ($)**   % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st. ADOA population estimates differ from official Census Bureau estimates. EBRC considers ADOA counts to be the most accurate. **BEA total personal income divided by ADOA population estimates. TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 inhabitants. EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona. MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation NPS: National Parks Service * All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties Apache County Summary - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.8 20.6 Unemployment Rate 15.3 15.0 15.4 15.3 14.8 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 18.0 17.9 18.0 17.8 17.8 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.1 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 Private Government Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Gila County (Payson Micropolitan Area) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 22.3 22.1 22.1 21.3 21.1 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.8 8.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.9 Private 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 Government 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 7 3 2 7 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Graham County Summary - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 16.6 16.6 16.5 14.1 14.5 Unemployment Rate 7.0 6.8 6.9 8.1 7.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.8 Private 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Government 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.0 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Greenlee County Summary - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.1 Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.3 6.2 8.1 7.9 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Private 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Government 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties La Paz County Summary - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 7.0 8.8 5.1 7.2 8.5 5.2 7.1 8.8 5.2 7.9 8.7 5.2 7.8 8.7 5.2 Private 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Government 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 37.8 37.5 37.4 41.0 40.7 Unemployment Rate 11.2 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.7 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.2 Private Government 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.3 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.9 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 8 7 4 4 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly Data Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Civilian Labor Force (000s), BLS 17.2 17.3 17.4 20.6 20.4 Unemployment Rate 16.7 14.3 13.8 11.3 10.9 Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.9 Private 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 Government 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Taxable Sales: Total ($000s, accrual), ADOR* New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 7 4 4 6 *Total of all collection categories covered by Arizona’s “Transaction Privilege Tax,” does not include food or gasoline sales. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 April, 2015 Spring Issue Arizona’s Economy Economic and business research center McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108 George W. Hammond, Ph. D. Director (520) 626-1679 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu Alberta Charney, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 621-2291 acharney@eller.arizona.edu Alan Hoogasian Research Economist (520) 626-6439 ahoogasi@eller.arizona.edu Daniel Kinnear Specialist, Business Research (520) 626-1673 dkinnear@eller.arizona.edu Pia Montoya Database Specialist (520) 621-2523 pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu Maile L. Nadelhoffer Research Economist & Webmaster (520) 621-4050 mln@eller.arizona.edu Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D. Senior Regional Scientist & Associate Professor of Geography (520) 626-0520 vkp@eller.arizona.edu Heather Peterson Technical Consultant (520) 621-4050 thpeterson@comcast.net Jennifer Pullen Research Economist (520) 626-4795 jkanipe@email.arizona.edu Valorie Rice Senior Specialist, Business Information (520) 621-2109 vrice@eller.arizona.edu Phone: 520-621-2155 Fax: 520-621-2150 E-mail: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu To subscribe to Arizona’s Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit: ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. 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