April, 2013 Spring Issue ARIZONA’S ECONOMY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER Less Uncertainty Now, Stronger Growth Coming By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBR Associate Director and Research Professor Eurozone financial crisis looking more remote, the U.S. and Arizona economies are expected to pick up some speed as we make our way through 2013. Even faster growth should be in the offing for 20142015, as the housing sector rebound gains momentum. Fiscal Cliff Averted, Mostly T he Arizona economy accelerated in 2012, with stronger job, population, and housing permit growth than in 2011. Job gains in 2012 were driven, as usual, by service-providing sectors. However, the goods-producing sector contributed to growth as well, with gains in construction, manufacturing, and mining and logging. Job growth contributed to a decline in the state unemployment rate of 8.2%, down from 9.5% in 2011. However, a declining labor force was also a significant factor in the drop. Arizona population growth also accelerated in 2012, with just over 60,000 residents added from July 2011 to July 2012. Stronger population growth was driven by renewed net migration into the state. With the worst of the fiscal cliff either avoided or delayed and a full blown The fiscal cliff deal averted most of the tax increases that were expected to begin in January 2013. The most important exception is the expiration of the payroll tax cut, which will take a significant bite out of income and consumption growth in 2013, perhaps reducing real GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. In addition, the spending cuts required by the sequester went into effect March 1 and are expected to reduce real GDP growth in 2013 by an additional 0.4 percentage points. However, some fiscal uncertainty remains. For instance, the debt ceiling issue has been further delayed, until May. Finally, a federal government “shutdown” of nonessential services at the end of March is a possibility, if the continuing resolution that funds government activity is not replaced with appropriations or another continuing resolution. Stay tuned. U.S. Growth Heads North The forecast calls for the U.S. economy to gradually pick up steam through 2013 and into 2014, although gains are particularly weak during the first quarter March 1, 2013 of this year. The January 2013 IHS Global Insight forecasts calls for real GDP growth to be just 1.0% in the first quarter, with faster gains expected for the remainder of the year. On average for 2013, real GDP is expected rise just 1.7%, another disappointing result. In 2014, growth accelerates to 2.7% and then gains momentum, hitting 3.4% in 2015. Arizona Job Growth 2012: Better and Balanced Arizona added 50,500 jobs in 2012, which translated into an annual growth rate of 2.1%, according to the latest estimates. That was faster than the 1.0% growth in 2011, and also exceeded the national rate of growth of 1.7%. As Exhibit 1 shows, job growth was fairly well balanced across industries, with just two sectors posting job losses during the year: information (down 400 jobs) and other services (down 1,800 jobs). Adding the most jobs in 2012 were professional and business services; education and health care (primarily health care); trade, transportation, and utilities (primarily trade, especially clothing and general merchandise retailers); and leisure and hospitality (primarily food services and drinking places). The service-providing sectors accounted for 83.0% of net job gains in Arizona last year, but the goods-producing sectors contributed as well. Construction jobs IN THIS ISSUE Less Uncertainty Now, Stronger Growth Coming . . . . . . . . . . . 1 March 2013 Data Round-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Arizona Economic Indicators: AZ and US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Arizona Economic Indicators: Metro Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Arizona Economic Indicators: Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY bounced back strongly in 2012, adding nearly 7,000 jobs. This is a welcome change from the 128,800 jobs lost during the 2006-2010 period. Even manufacturing contributed to job growth last year, adding 1,600 jobs from 2011, with roughly equal gains in durable and nondurable goods production. Mining and logging employment was up slightly last year. down from 2011 and well below the state rate. The Tucson MSA unemployment rate also fell in 2012 to 7.3%. The metropolitan areas also experienced labor force declines in 2012, according to the preliminary estimates. Housing Continues to Rebound House prices in Arizona rose strongly in the third quarter of 2012, measured by the FHFA house price index. The purchase-only index for the state rose by 20.1%, with most of that gain driven by activity in the Phoenix MSA. The all-transaction index, which includes refinance activity, also showed strong appreciation in Arizona, again with most of the strength in the Phoenix MSA. Job growth also accelerated in the Phoenix MSA in 2012, with job growth rising from 1.4% in 2011 to 2.5% in 2012. Thus, Phoenix job growth last year beat both the state and the nation. Job growth was slower in the Tucson MSA last year, with employment rising by just 0.6%. Even so, that was a marked improvement over results for 2011, when the metropolitan area posted just 0.1% job growth. House price appreciation looks set to continue in the fourth quarter. The CaseShiller house price index for the Phoenix MSA was up by 21.7% in October and 22.8% in November, over year ago levels. Median house prices in both the Phoenix and Tucson MSAs also continued to increase strongly during October and November. The state unemployment rate hit 8.2% in 2012, according to preliminary estimates, which left the state very close to the national rate and well below the state rate in 2011 (9.5%). This news is not as good as we would hope because the state posted labor force declines during the period. The Phoenix MSA rate was 7.2% in 2012, Exhibit 1: Professional and Business Services Led Arizona Job Growth in 2012 Arizona Job Growth (000s) by Sector: 2011-2012 Mining and Logging 0.1 Construction 6.7 Manufacturing 1.6 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 9.4 Information -0.4 Financial Activities 3.5 Professional and Business Services 11.1 Education and Health Services 9.9 Leisure and Hospitality 8.1 Other Services -1.8 Government 2.3 -4 2 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 10 12 14 April, 2013 Spring Issue Exhibit 2: Arizona’s Population Expands by 60,400 New Residents Arizona Mid-Year Population Estimates and Components of Change numbers in 000s Arizona Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA Population 2011 6,438.2 4,227.6 9,86.1 Natural Percent Change Increase Net Migration Population 2012 2011-12 37.2 23.2 6,498.6 0.9 30.6 15.7 4,273.9 1.1 3.3 1.0 990.4 0.4 Job gains in construction reflect in part a rebound in housing construction in Arizona. According to preliminary data from the Census Bureau, total housing permits reached 21,519 in 2012, a substantial increase from 13,386 units in 2011. Most of the increase arose in the single family sector, with permits rising from 10,637 in 2011 to 16,023 in 2012. Multi-family activity also increased, roughly doubling from 2011 to hit 5,496 units. Total permit activity rose strongly in both the Phoenix MSA (up by 63.2%) and the Tucson MSA (up by 48.9%) in 2012. Household formation remains a key concern for housing activity going forward. According to the Census Bureau, homeowner vacancy rates were 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012, down from 3.2% in the last quarter of 2011. Rental vacancy rates, at 10.8% in the fourth quarter, were also below year ago levels. Overall, vacancy rates appear to be down from recent highs, but still remain well above pre-crisis levels. Arizona Population Growth Accelerated in 2012 The Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics has released midyear population estimates for the state, shown in Exhibit 2. The estimates suggest that Arizona’s population expanded by 60,400 (0.9%) in 2012 to nearly 6.5 million residents. That was stronger growth than the state generated in 2011, at 0.6%. Natural increase was positive in 2012, at 37,200, but a bit slower than in 2011. Net migration is estimated to have increased strongly in 2012, to 23,200, far exceeding the small decline in 2011. Both the Phoenix and Tucson MSAs added residents in 2012, with population rising by 1.1% in Phoenix, which was a significant acceleration over the 2011 growth rate of 0.6%. Population growth in Tucson was 0.4% in 2012, slightly slower than the 0.5% rate posted in 2011. Income and sales Arizona personal income rose by 4.2% in the third quarter of 2012, compared to the same quarter of 2011. The third quarter is the most recent quarter for which data is available. Arizona’s personal income growth was 1.0 percentage point above the national average. Arizona generated solid gains in all income components. The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released new personal income estimates for local areas for 2011 and revised data back to 2009. The revision significantly reduced estimated personal income for the Phoenix and Tucson MSAs. Indeed, total personal income for the Phoenix MSA was reduced by 1.1% in 2009 and 1.7% in 2010. The downward revisions were even larger for the Tucson MSA, with personal income revised down by 1.4% in 2009 and 3.2% in 2010. For both MSAs, all of the downward revision originated in dividends, interest, and rental income. Revisions to this component were large, reaching 11.3% in 2010 for the Phoenix MSA and 14.3% for the Tucson MSA. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Exhibit 3: Sales Growth Returns to Levels Commensurate with Income Gains Aggregate Retail Sales Growth 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Arizona Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA 05 06 -10 -15 07 08 The latest personal income estimates for the Phoenix MSA suggest that growth hit 5.3% in 2011, up from 2.0% in 2010. Similarly, personal income growth accelerated in 2011 to 4.0%, well above growth in 2010 of 0.9%. Arizona retail sales have continued to increase in 2012, although growth has moderated from the rapid pace set in 2011 (Exhibit 3). The trend toward slower growth last year was also evident in the Phoenix and Tucson MSAs. Overall, sales growth 09 10 11 Arizona Outlook Arizona is on track to generate faster growth, assuming the U.S. economy continues to expand. For most major indicators, growth accelerates in 2013 and again in 2014, as population growth and the housing market gain momentum. Overall, Arizona is forecast to grow during the next two years and to grow faster than the nation (Exhibit 4). Arizona Outlook 2012-2014: Growth Rates 2013 2014 Jobs 2.1 2.5 3.2 Personal Income 3.8 4.6 6.8 Retail Sales 4.7 4.8 5.3 Population 0.9 1 1.5 53.6 15.1 53.9 Housing Permits 4 2012 -20 is returning to levels commensurate with income gains. Exhibit 4: Improving Job Growth Boosts Income Gains (percent) 12 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2013 Spring Issue March 2013 Data Round-Up by Valorie Rice The Employment Situation for the United States was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, March 8th. The U.S. gained 236,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February. The largest gains were in the professional and business services, construction, and health care industries. The unemployment rate for the U.S. was lower in February, moving to 7.7 percent from 7.9 in January. While the number of unemployed was lower, the number of people not in the labor force increased. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey was released March 12th. The outlook for the second quarter indicates that Arizona, and Tucson especially, is expected to have an increase in hiring. Phoenix is expected to add workers at the same pace as the nation, with a net employment outlook of 11 percent for both the U.S. and Phoenix. Arizona’s net employment outlook for the second quarter is 16 percent. The Tucson outlook is 22 percent, which is second highest in the nation for this quarter. Claims for unemployment in Arizona were up slightly at the beginning of March, registering 4,395 which was just 108 higher than the week previous, while the fourweek average was lower at 4,563. Initial claims nationally were at a five-year low, moving to a seasonally adjusted 332,000. The four-week average for the U.S. was 346,750. or metro/micro areas were among the fastest growing. The most growth was found in areas influenced by the recent energy boom: Midland, Texas was the fastest growing metro area and Williston, North Dakota was the top growing micropolitan area. Unemployment in Arizona ticked up onetenth of a percent in January to 8 percent, just behind the 7.9 percent for the U.S. Nonfarm jobs in the state were down 45,500 for the month, with both the private sector and government shedding jobs. Typical seasonal losses in retail trade and employment services industries factored into losses for the private sector. With the January employment release, there were revisions for the last two years due to the annual benchmarking process. Tables showing new data for 2011 and 2012 show that overall employment figures were stronger than originally reported for those two years, though the revised data show lower figures for government employment. The Consumer Price Index for February was released on March 15th. Consumer prices rose 0.7 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis. Higher gasoline prices accounted for most of the gain. Inflation over the last 12 months was 2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Producer Price Indexes on March 14th. Finished goods increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in February compared to 0.2 percent in January. Wholesale prices have increased 1.7 percent over the 12 months, unadjusted. The Census Bureau released metropolitan, micropolitan and county population estimates for 2012 on March 14th. Maricopa County and the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA were among the areas with the largest numerically gains, but no Arizona counties ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Forecast Tables Forecast and Indicator Tables Forecast Tables ............................................................................................. 7 Arizona Indicators Arizona and the US .............................................................................. 8 Metropolitan Statistical Areas .......................................................... 9 Counties................................................................................................. 12 TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOA: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and Population Statistics ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 inhabitants. EBR: The Economic and Business Research Center, The University of Arizona. MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security * All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona. >>Need More? Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship allows your company or organization to access an in-depth menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as, quarterly forecast update meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075. Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the Western states. 6 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2013 Spring Issue Forecast Tables Arizona Personal Income ($mill) % change Retail Sales ($mill) % change Non Farm Employment (000s) % change Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA Personal Income ($mill) % change Retail Sales ($mill) % change Non Farm Employment (000s) % change Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change Tucson MSA Personal Income ($mill) % change Retail Sales ($mill) % change Non Farm Employment (000s) % change Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 235,880 246,808 263,574 281,275 300,346 3.8% 4.6% 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 81,053 84,956 89,441 94,754 101,154 4.7% 4.8% 5.3% 5.9% 6.8% 2,456.0 2,516.6 2,598.1 2,699.5 2,805.3 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 6,498.6 6,566.3 6,663.0 6,781.9 6,913.6 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 20,428 23,504 36,173 47,116 53,778 53.6% 15.1% 53.9% 30.3% 14.1% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 163,754 171,267 182,287 194,672 208,185 4.3% 4.6% 6.4% 6.8% 6.9% 55,767 58,812 62,601 66,480 70,907 4.6% 5.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.7% 1,755.7 1,800.7 1,860.2 1,936.7 2,017.4 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.2% 4,273.9 4,329.6 4,393.5 4,473.2 4,568.7 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 14,200 19,614 24,865 34,254 39,564 56.4% 38.1% 26.8% 37.8% 15.5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 35,734 37,192 39,284 41,461 43,954 3.3% 4.1% 5.6% 5.5% 6.0% 11,986 12,467 12,844 13,223 13,851 4.7% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.8% 356.7 361.7 369.1 378.1 388.5 0.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 990.4 999.3 1,010.5 1,024.0 1,041.6 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 3,085 3,935 4,825 5,785 6,679 37.6% 27.6% 22.6% 19.9% 15.5% ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Summary (monthly data) Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Civilian Labor Force (seas. adj.), BLS 3,027,864 3,027,958 3,029,985 3,029,341 3,038,265 Unemployment Rate (seas. adj.), BLS Total Nonfarm Employment (000s, Seas. Adj.), BLS Private Government Aggregate Retail Sales ($000), EBR New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.9 8.0 2,477.2 2,473.7 2,487.2 2,488.3 2,487.4 2,053.5 2,064.3 2,087.1 2,093.4 2,059.9 424.4 426.0 427.2 425.0 413.0 6,454,727 6,579,921 6,862,488 8,163,059 6,675,577 1,626 1,758 1,479 2,365 1,780 Arizona Summary - (quarterly data) 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Population* (seas. adj,), ADOA & EBR 6,460,825 6,475,922 6,491,020 6,507,675 6,524,794 % Chg from Year Ago Natural Increase, ADHS/EBR 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 9,660 8,098 8,144 11,342 9,218 13.2 12.9 12.4 13.8 13.1 5,438 7,000 6,954 6,871 6,808 229,168 232,019 235,121 240,350 4.6% 2.9% 3.6% 5.7% Per Capita Pers. Inc. ($ mil, SAAR), BEA & EBR 35,499 35,883 36,304 37,041 Civilian Nonag Wage Rate, ($, SAAR), BEA 47,671 47,872 48,170 49,025 239.7 238.3 241.4 250.8 258.3 -7.3% -2.4% 3.9% 6.6% 7.8% Birth Rate (per 1,000), ADHS & EBR Net Migration, ADHS & EBR Total Personal Income ($, SAAR), BEA % Chg from Year Ago All Transactions House Price Index, FHFA % Chg from Year Ago *Population numbers are based on ADOA annual estimates through July 2011, EBR then makes quarterly middle of quarter estimates and projections. SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate Inflation and Prices Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 All Urban Consumers: All Items 231.6 231.1 231.1 231.2 232.8 % Chg from Year Ago 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 235.0 233.2 232.0 232.8 234.6 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 203.5 201.8 201.5 202.4 204.3 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% U.S. Consumer Price Indices (seas. adj.), BLS Western States - All Urban Consumers: All items % Chg from Year Ago U.S. Producer Price Index: All Commodities (seas. adj.), BLS % Chg from Year Ago 8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2013 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - Metropolitan Statistical Areas Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, MSA, Summary - Monthly Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Civilian Labor Force, BLS 2,037,343 2,039,856 2,045,266 2,042,915 2,053,661 Unemployment Rate, BLS Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Aggregate Retail Sales ($000s), EBR & ADOR 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.7 7.2 1,769.4 1,781.0 1,800.8 1,803.6 1,772.2 1,529.9 1,539.7 1,558.8 1,562.9 1,536.3 239.5 241.3 242.0 240.7 235.9 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.5 23.4 5,755,750 5,794,892 6,039,389 6,998,128 5,962,531 Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 1,031 1,159 1,021 1,959 1,297 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA, Summary - Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4,167,019 4,186,131 4,200,427 4,227,601 4,273,897 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 156,755,410 146,163,794 149,093,883 157,026,115 Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Average Wage per Job, $, BEA % Chg from Year Ago Consumer Price Index (Phx-Mesa-Glndle MSA) All Urban Consumers: All items, BLS 2.4% -6.8% 2.0% 5.3% 45455 45753 46311 47599 1.7% 0.7% 1.2% 2.8% 119.3 117.6 118.2 121.5 124.2 3.5% -1.4% 0.6% 2.8% % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st of each year. ADOA population estimates differ from the official Census Bureau estimates. Tucson MSA, Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force, BLS Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), BLS Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Aggregate Retail Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Tucson MSA, Summary - Annual Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Average Wage per Job, $, BEA 2.2% Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 456,749 456,121 456,296 456,835 461,547 7.0 7.1 6.6 6.9 7.3 363.0 364.4 367.4 369.4 361.4 282.0 283.0 285.3 287.7 283.9 81.0 81.4 82.1 81.7 77.5 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.3 1,255,576 1,287,027 1,309,105 1,502,657 1,260,989 325 328 273 228 291 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 984,032 984,274 981,168 986,081 990,380 0.7% 0.0% -0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35,067,808 32,977,680 33,277,952 34,596,360 6.04% -5.96% 0.91% 3.96% 40,646 40,748 41,304 42,398 3.5% 0.3% 1.4% 2.7% % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st of each year. ADOA population estimates differ from the official Census Bureau estimates. ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators - Metropolitan Statistical Areas Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Gross Retail Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Flagstaff MSA (Coconino County) Summary - Annual Data Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Average Wage per Job, $, BEA Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 75,072 74,728 72,658 71,439 71,573 7.5 7.4 7.5 8.1 8.6 65.0 64.9 63.8 62.3 61.3 44.1 44.2 43.3 42.2 41.8 20.9 20.7 20.5 20.1 19.5 15.93 16.22 16.73 17.62 17.19 65 31 7 17 20 223,317 206,645 177,501 191,911 151,007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 132,864 133,626 134,679 134,162 134,313 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% -0.4% 0.1% 4,539,992 4,448,866 4,446,722 4,620,811 7.1% -2.0% -0.1% 3.9% 35,866 36,512 37,186 37,927 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% % Chg from Year Ago *Population counts as of July 1st of each year. ADOA population estimates differ from the official Census Bureau estimates. Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, (000s), ADOA Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Lake Havasu City - Kingman MSA (Mohave County) Summary - Annual Population, ADOA* % Chg from Year Ago Total Personal Income ($000), BEA % Chg from Year Ago Average Wage per Job, $, BEA % Chg from Year Ago 10 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 84,868 85,022 83,860 83,544 84,398 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.6 10.4 45.1 45.1 45.2 44.8 44.1 37.0 36.9 37.1 37.0 36.4 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.2 212,973 192,341 186,822 207,041 185,859 29 38 47 24 23 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 200,063 200,235 200,099 200,417 203,072 0.5% 0.1% -0.1% 0.2% 1.3% 5,301,938 4,987,333 5,072,506 5,290,530 4.6% -5.9% 1.7% 4.3% 33,337 32,809 33,621 34,342 3.3% -1.6% 2.5% 2.1% Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2013 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Prescott MSA (Yavapai County) Summary - Monthly Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Private Government Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Total New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 Yuma MSA (Yuma County) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force, BLS Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 92,855 92,934 91,987 90,919 91,342 8.2 8.3 7.8 8.4 9.1 56,200 56,500 56,900 56,000 55,100 45.6 45.8 46.1 45.6 44.8 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.4 10.3 17.03 17.39 17.39 17.00 16.35 242,962 238,288 238,285 254,378 227,415 35 35 38 38 66 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 91,357 92,406 90,003 90,171 91,638 29.7 29.8 27.7 27.3 26.5 50.4 51.2 52.1 53.0 51.6 Private 35.1 35.7 36.6 37.4 36.8 Government 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.6 14.8 Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private, $, BLS Gross Taxable Sales ($000s), EBR & ADOR New Residential Permits (units), Census C-40 21.05 20.90 20.91 20.77 21.14 183,807 182,838 220,549 236,994 201,218 42 111 49 31 59 ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties Apache County Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), ADOA Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 22,096 21,823 21,264 21,481 21,399 18.7 19.4 18.7 19.4 20.4 19,025 18,625 18,525 18,600 17,950 Total Private 7,700 7,675 7,625 7,575 7,225 Government 11,325 10,950 10,900 11,025 10,725 32,088 31,519 30,282 30,464 19,458 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 58,353 8.2 35,875 58,367 8.1 36,000 57,889 7.7 36,225 58,051 8.0 36,325 58,408 8.7 35,775 23,325 23,425 23,700 23,725 23,450 Gross Taxable Sales ($000s), EBR & ADOR Cochise County (Sierra Vista - Douglas Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Data Total Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Total Private 12,550 12,575 12,525 12,600 12,325 157,913 162,868 181,754 206,805 165,599 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 22,564 22,242 22,131 22,298 22,700 9.0 9.2 8.7 9.1 9.8 14,525 14,300 14,475 14,600 14,575 Private 9,475 9,400 9,450 9,475 9,500 Government 5,050 4,900 5,025 5,125 5,075 51,114 51,919 44,646 50,423 44,957 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 15,029 14,793 14,567 14,476 14,450 Government Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Gila County (Payson Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Gross Taxable Sales, ($000), EBR & ADOR Graham County Summary - Monthly Data Total Civilian Labor Force, ADOA 8.6 8.4 8.1 8.2 8.7 9,050 8,825 8,850 8,800 8,550 Total Private 5,750 5,725 5,750 5,775 5,725 Government 3,300 3,100 3,100 3,025 2,825 24,887 27,623 27,195 33,250 25,788 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 4,278 4,244 4,147 4,153 4,170 5.7 6.2 5.2 6.0 7.1 3,975 4,000 4,000 3,900 3,850 3,425 3,450 3,425 3,350 3,325 Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Gross Retail Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Greenlee County Summary - Monthly Data Total Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Total Private Government Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR 12 Sep 2012 550 550 575 550 525 33,454 36,582 36,307 39,514 41,233 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April, 2013 Spring Issue Arizona Economic Indicators - Counties La Paz County Summary - Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 7,547 7,505 7,341 7,587 7,469 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.9 10.3 5,025 4,975 4,950 5,075 4,850 Total Private 2,650 2,625 2,675 2,675 2,650 Government 2,375 2,350 2,275 2,400 2,200 19,561 18,382 18,306 24,699 27,464 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 40,039 14.3 28,000 39,486 14.7 27,500 38,706 14.3 27,400 38,902 15.1 27,325 39,295 15.9 26,975 18,075 17,625 17,500 17,400 17,175 Gross Taxable Sales (000$), EBR & ADOR Navajo County (Show Low Micropolitan SA) Summary - Monthly Data Total Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Total Private Government Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR Santa Cruz County Summary - Monthly Data Total Civilian Labor Force, ADOA Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment, ADOA Private Government Gross Taxable Sales ($000), EBR & ADOR 9,925 9,875 9,900 9,925 9,800 112,527 107,368 101,753 102,234 99,040 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 17,338 17,642 17,542 17,601 17,818 19.2 19.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 12,025 12,250 12,625 12,700 12,725 8,000 8,225 8,600 8,675 8,725 4,025 4,025 4,025 4,025 4,000 42,133 42,109 44,536 64,831 42,142 ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 April, 2013 Spring Issue ARIZONA’S ECONOMY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. 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