October, 2012 Fall Issue

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER

Thirty-Year Forecast Update: Growth is Subdued Now, But
Lots More on the Horizon
By Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director

Photo by David Harvey

T

he U.S. (and Arizona) economies are
locked into a slow recovery that is
expected to continue into next year
before faster growth materializes. On the
bright side, evidence continues to build
that housing is beginning to heal. The
biggest challenge for analysts is to get a
handle on absorption of the large supply
of vacant homes. Over a 30-year horizon
we continue to expect Arizona to become
one of the ten most populous states with
over 10 million people.

September 1, 2012

Job growth statewide slowed significantly
during the second quarter as the number
of nonfarm jobs flattened (0.0%-0.5%,
after adjusting for seasonality). That’s
much slower than during the first quarter,
when jobs were growing by 2.5% - 3.5%
at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Gains in private sector employment during
the second quarter (up 2.5%-3.0% at an
annual rate) were offset by losses in the
public sector (declines of 3-4%). Yearon-year, job counts stood 2.4% higher in
June. We look for a gain of less than 2%
for the entire calendar year and only a
slightly faster pace in 2013.
Initial claims for unemployment
insurance are declining at a 6% annual

rate in recent months and were
down 15.7% year-over-year during
June. Though an improvement, they
are still painfully high. In June,
the unemployment rate stood at a
seasonally-adjusted 8.2%, the same
reading for the third month in a row.
We expect little improvement through
the end of 2013, and unemployment
not dropping below 7% until the
second half of 2015.
Personal income statewide grew by
a modest 5.1% last year but slowed
to only a 3.8% gain during the first
quarter. Meanwhile, a measure
of retail sales that includes retail,
restaurant and bars, gasoline and

Exhibit 1: Sales are Restrained by Incomes

Personal Income and Retail Sales Growth, AZ
income
sales

forecast

12
10
8

The Arizona economy continues to expand
at a painfully slow pace. Key themes that
we are monitoring during this growthchallenged recovery include lethargic job
growth, high unemployment, miniscule
income gains, cautious spending on the
part of consumers, depressed migration
flows, and high inventories of vacant
housing.

IN THIS ISSUE

% chg yr ago

6
4
2
10

Thirty-Year Forecast Update: Growth is Subdued Now,
But Lots More on the Horizon. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Contribution From Growth Industries. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 5
Supply of Vacant Houses Remains Swollen. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 5

11

12

0

Kids Count. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
Forecast Tables. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 8
Arizona Economic Indicators. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Recent housing
reports suggest that
healing has begun...

food, rose by 9.3% in 2011 but slowed to an
estimated 5.2% in the second quarter. So,
last year’s release of pent up demand now
appears to be in the rear view mirror, and
spending will need support from incomes
going forward. We look for personal income
to grow by 4.5% this year and next before
the pace quickens. Aggregate sales are
expected to register gains in the 5.0%-5.5%
range (Exhibit 1).
Recent housing reports have been
encouraging and suggest that the healing
process has begun. Home prices have been
moving higher, foreclosures are down
sharply, and the inventory of unsold homes
has dropped dramatically. But half of
would-be traditional home-buyers can’t
qualify for a mortgage even with rates
at record lows, mortgage delinquencies
remain high, and a large portion of recent
demand is from investors and new realestate investment funds that are acquiring
properties. Progress is being made, but
housing markets are anything but normal.
The fall in housing prices that led to
negative equity positions for many
homeowners ushered in an era of reduced
population mobility not seen in the U.S. for
several decades. Although housing prices
appear to have finally stopped falling (and

Over a 30-year
horizon we expect
Arizona to become one
of the ten most populous
states ...

As a result, the homebuilding industry will
remain subdued over the next couple of
years. Although the number of residential
building permits may post double-digit
annual increases going forward, it will be
mid-decade or beyond before building
activity approaches what might be
considered normal.

Long-Term Outlook
Hangover from the Great Recession
continues to throttle growth, but Arizona
will eventually rank amongst the fastestgrowing states once again. In the annual
update of our 30-year projections, we show
Arizona’s population topping 10.2 million in
the year 2042. That will easily put Arizona
among the top-ten ranked states for the
most residents. By 2042, nearly four million
more people than live here today will call
Arizona home. Projections for each 10-year
interval for selected aggregate measures are
presented in Exhibit 2.
Highlights of the 30-year forecast include
the following:
• Over 1.8 million new jobs will be created
in Arizona over the next three decades,

Exhibit 2: Projections to 2042, Arizona
2002

2012

Population (000s)

5411

6483

7652

8928

10214

Nonfarm Jobs (000s)

2266

2450

3204

3726

4281

148

244

427

692

1102

56

82

137

203

299

Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

2

are bouncing back at double-digit rates
of increase, according to some measures),
mobility remains depressed.

2022

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

2032

2042

October, 2012 Fall Issue

boosting the total to almost 4.3 million.
• After adding nearly 1-1/4 million persons
during the decade of the “aughts,” the
decade of the “teens” will see population
swell by just over a million. The smaller
increase is due to reduced mobility at the
beginning of the decade, which is still
depressing migration flows.
• Per capita personal income relative to
the nation has remained relatively steady
over the past 20 years at today’s roughly
87%. This ratio peaked at 95% in 1971
and was as high as 94.3% in 1986 before
plunging to only 85.5% in 1992. We
forecast modest improvement in the near
term and a year 2042 reading of 88%
-- little changed from today. Per capita
income is an aggregate measure whose
movement depends on demographics
(age structure), wage levels, industry mix,
and labor force participation rates.
• Arizona’s employment-to-population
ratio plunged during the current
recession and will remain well below
its peak established in 2000 (43.3%),
and after dipping below 37.2% in 2010,
finishes in 2042 at 41.9%. Arizona’s ratio
has consistently run 3-4 points lower
than nationwide. This ratio is a full five
points lower in metro Tucson than in

metro Phoenix.
• As the population continues to age, an
increasing share of personal income will
come from transfer payments, of which
social security is the largest component.
The share will rise from 20.3% today
to 26.2% by 2042. Per capita transfers
in Arizona jumped during the Great
Recession and will continue to run higher
than the corresponding nationwide
measure.

Over 1.8 million
new jobs will be created
in Arizona over the next
three decades boosting
the total to almost 4.3
million...

• Retail sales relative to income fell
significantly during the Great Recession,
dropping below 20% from nearly 53%
in the mid-1960s. An aging population
that spends more on services (especially
health care) and a smaller portion on
taxable goods, along with a narrowing of
the tax base, accounts for the drop. This
ratio will sink to an all-time low of 18.6%
in another 30 years. This has serious
implications for a tax system heavily
reliant on retail sales (Exhibit 3).	
• Over the long term, migration flows
will continue to account for the lion’s
share of population growth. On average,
natural increase (births minus deaths)
accounts for one third while net
migration provides the remainder. The
latter varies significantly, of course, over

Exhibit 3: Retail Sales Relative to Income Has Fallen Significantly

Ratio of Retail Sales to Income, AZ

ratio

0 .55
0 .50
0 .45
0 .40
0 .35
0 .30
0 .25
0 .20

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

0 .15
ebr.eller.arizona.edu

3

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

We can only guess
what Arizona will be
like, but it’s clear that a
great deal of change lies
ahead...

Photo by David Harvey

the business cycle. During the recession,
with mobility rates at a six-decade low,
migration flows swung deeply negative
for the first time in recorded history. By
2016 net migration will again approach
95,000 annually. Natural increase moved
significantly lower during the recession
due to falling births, but will stabilize
at 40,000 new residents annually in the
near term, before moving lower as the
population ages (Exhibit 4).	

other services (3.6%), transportation and
warehousing (2.9%), and information
(1.5%) shares remain largely unchanged.
• In our “high” scenario, Arizona’s
population reaches 11.2 million in 2042.
In the “low” scenario, it is 9.8 million,
compared to 10.2 million in the “most
likely – or “base” scenario. Michigan,
the seventh largest state, today has 9.9
million.
• Today, Arizona’s 6.4 million population
ranks 16th, just ahead of Tennessee. In
thirty years, Arizona likely will overtake
Indiana, Massachusetts, Washington,
Virginia, New Jersey, North Carolina, and
Michigan to become the ninth largest
state.

• Government, manufacturing, leisure
& hospitality, mining, and utilities will
represent smaller shares of total jobs
30 years from now. Government’s share
will decline from 16.7% to 13.6%,
manufacturing from 6.2% to 4.2%,
leisure & hospitality from 10.9% to
10.3%, and utilities from 0.5% to 0.3%.
Mining jobs will all but disappear,
accounting for two-tenths of one percent
and only 7,400 jobs in 2042.

• Arizona was the second-fastest growing
state over the past decade, even though
population growth disappeared during
the recession. Low mobility rates will
limit Arizona’s growth for a few more
years, but growth will return to more
historical levels by mid-decade.

• Sectors that will gain the largest shares
are professional and business services
(from 14.4% to 16.8%), health care &
social assistance (from 14.9% to 18.2%),
and financial services (from 6.9% to
7.4%).

Over the next 30 years, Arizona will add 3.7
million residents or a little more than half
of the numbers here today. 3.1 million will
land in metro Phoenix. We can only guess
what Arizona will be like, but it’s clear that a

• Retail trade (12.2%), construction (4.7%),
Exhibit 4: Population Flows are (Very) Cyclical

Components of Population, AZ

thousands

150

forecast

100
net migration

50
natural increase

0

annual change

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
4

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

-50

October, 2012 Fall Issue

Contribution from Growth Industries

When the economy

by Valorie Rice and Marshall J. Vest

starts growing again,

Since Arizona is a rapidly growing state, a large portion of economic activity is related
to growth. Included are workers in the construction industry, supplier industries (such
as landscaping services, architectural engineering), real estate finance (title companies,
mortgage brokers, appraisers), retail stores (furniture, home improvement centers),
manufacturing (concrete, stone, structural metals, HVAC), property managers, realtors and
brokers, and more.

the rate of growth will
receive a big boost
as jobs in the growth
industry are filled.

All totaled, Arizona’s growth industries accounted for a little over 300,000 jobs in 2011, down
almost 200,000 from peak employment of 2006. As a percentage of total employment, the
growth industry accounts for about 15%, or one in every seven workers. Back in 2006, the
percentage was over 22%, or more than one in five (Exhibit 1).	
When the economy starts growing again, the rate of growth will receive a big boost as jobs in

Supply of Vacant Houses Remains
Swollen
by Marshall J. Vest

A key indicator of mobility is the number
of vacant housing units. Realtor data
on the number of listings (or months
supply) offer little insight into mobility.
It’s the absorption of vacant inventory
that’s important. Unfortunately, most
housing studies cover only a submarket
(such as apartments or single family new
construction). The 2010 Census found

that over 16% of Arizona’s housing stock
was vacant. After adjusting for second
home ownership the rate still approached
10%, a very high rate. (Roughly 6.5% of
Arizona’s housing stock – over 184,000
units -- is used seasonally, recreationally or
occasionally.) The main question is how have
vacancies changed since then? (continued
next page ....)

The 2010 Census
found that over 16% of
Arizona’s housing stock
was vacant.

Exhibit 1: Employment in Growth Industries is Falling.

Employment in Growth Industries as % of Total, AZ

percent

24
22
20
18
16

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

14
ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Evidence suggests
that little progress
has been made ... in
absorbing the large
numbers of vacant units
and that migration flows
remain depressed.

The U.S. Census Bureau produces a measure
of vacancies each quarter that is based on
a very small survey that, unfortunately, is
too small to provide meaningful results.
About 72,000 nationwide addresses
are surveyed each month as part of the
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy
Survey (CPS/HVS). Included are renter and
homeowner vacancy rates for states and the
75 largest metropolitan areas. According to
this source, rental vacancies in Arizona have
declined from 13.7% at the time of the 2010
Census enumeration to a still-high 11.2% in
the second quarter of 2012. Over the same
period, homeowner vacancies have moved
upward, from 2.6% to 2.8%.
A second measure is produced by the
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) using data from the
U.S. Postal Service (USPS). Included is the
entire universe of addresses (both residential
and commercial) that USPS has in its
database. Addresses are recorded as vacant
if delivery staff on urban routes observes no
mail being collected for 90 days or longer.
Data are aggregated and made available to
researchers at the Census Tract level (using
year 2000 definitions).

At the time of the recent decennial Census
in the spring of 2010, the HUD/USPS data
recorded a statewide vacancy rate of 4.9%
compared to the Census reading of 16.3%
(463,536 units). Corresponding readings
for the metro Phoenix area were 4.93%
vs. 14.53% (227,000). For metro Tucson
the comparisons were 5.92% and 11.85%
(52,000). Although the total count of
addresses compares quite closely, the HUD/
USPS vacancy rates are much lower than
corresponding readings from the 2010
Census. Nevertheless, changes in the HUD/
USPS measure are indicative of household
formation and absorption of vacant units.
Current readings (for June 2012) show small
declines over the past two years for metro
Phoenix – from 4.93% to 4.7% -- and an
increase from 5.92% to 6.6% in metro
Tucson (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Vacancy Rates,
2012Q2, HUD and USPS
All the evidence suggests that little progress
has been made so far in absorbing the large
numbers of vacant units and that migration
flows remain depressed.

Exhibit 4: Vacancy Rates, 2012Q2, HUD and USPS
Residential
Arizona
Apache
Cochise
Coconino
Gila
Graham
Greenlee
La Paz
Maricopa
Mohave
Navajo
Pima
Pinal
Santa Cruz
Yavapai
Yuma

6

Total
2,790,613
2,353
54,497
50,538
29,431
10,725
2,179
6,775
1,710,148
101,268
26,008
456,046
156,212
15,615
99,324
69,464

Business
Vacant
120,020
1
2,020
851
1,873
277
0
214
74,187
6,902
532
27,181
2,206
625
1,308
1,843

%
4.30%
0.00%
3.70%
1.70%
6.40%
2.60%
0.00%
3.20%
4.30%
6.80%
2.00%
6.00%
1.40%
4.00%
1.30%
2.70%

Total
220,843
144
3,642
5,962
1,899
774
42
575
147,178
7,128
2,309
29,288
6,177
1,763
9,402
4,620

Vacant
29,458
0
396
472
266
69
0
32
20,794
1,033
81
5,015
344
208
433
315

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

%
13.30%
0.00%
10.90%
7.90%
14.00%
8.90%
0.00%
5.60%
14.10%
14.50%
3.50%
17.20%
5.60%
11.80%
4.60%
6.80%

October, 2012 Fall Issue

How do KIDS COUNT in Arizona?
by Valorie Rice
According to 2010 Census data, 25.5
percent of Arizona’s population is
comprised of those under the age of 18.
This places Arizona among the youngest
states in the nation, making the report
summarized below all the more important.
The Annie E. Casey Foundation has tracked
the well-being of children in the United
States by publishing the KIDS COUNT Data
Book since 1990. The 2012 report was
released in late July. This year the index
expanded from the list of 10 indicators
used in previous reports to 16 indicators
divided into four main categories –
Economic Well-Being, Education, Health,
and Family and Community. This change
provides for a better overall measure
of child well-being in each state. The
correlation between state rankings in this
year’s index and the previous year are
quite high, though there are a few states,
Arizona among them, that did see a drop
in their rankings because of the greater
emphasis on measures for education and
family and community factors.

The state with the best overall rank was
New Hampshire. New Hampshire has
consistently been the highest ranked
state, and this extends to the new format
as well. In fact, Northeastern states rank
high on childhood well-being as a group,
while Southern states measure among the
lowest. The four categories of the index
each have a different state positioned at
the top: Economic Well-Being – North
Dakota, Education – Massachusetts,
Health – Vermont, and Family and
Community – New Hampshire. New
Hampshire and Minnesota are the only
states to rank among the top ten in all
four areas.
In every score but one, Arizona is among
the bottom five states. The overall ranking
for Arizona is 46; the states ranking lower
are Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, and
Mississippi. Arizona is 46th in Economic
Well-Being and for each of the four
measures in that category the state
scores worse than the national average,
and has not experienced improvement

over the last several years. The state
ranks 46th in Education as well, and
though Arizona has shown progress
in educational measures, it still lags
behind the nation as a whole. The
Family and Community category also
places Arizona 46th. Though the state
shows improvement over time in two
of the four measures here, it is again
below national averages. Health was
the only category in which Arizona
ranks above the bottom tier, showing
up at 36th among all states. As in
Education, Arizona has made strides
in most of the health indicators over
time. The only measure in the Health
category in which Arizona lost ground
is the number of low birthweight
babies, and ironically it is the only
indicator out of all 16 in which our
state does better than the nation as a
whole.
For more information on KIDS COUNT,
go to http://datacenter.kidscount.org/.

Arizona’s Ranking in the KIDS COUNT Data Book 2012 Indicator Categories
Economic Well-being

Arizona’s Rank: 46

Arizona

US

Health

Arizona’s Rank: 36

Arizona

US

1.	

Percent of children in poverty

24%

22%

1.	

Percent of low birthweight babies

7.1%

8.2%

2.	

Percent of children whose parents
lack secure employment (no full-time,
year-round work)

35%

33%

2.	

Percent of children without health
insurance

13%

8%

3.	

27%

Percent of children living in
households with a high housing cost
burden

43%

41%

Child and teen death rate (per
100,000 children ages 1 to 19)

30%

3.	

4.	

Percent of teens who abuse alcohol or
drugs (ages 12 to 17)

8%

7%

Percent of teens not in school and not
working (ages 16 to 19)

12%

9%

4.	

Education

Arizona’s Rank: 46

Family and Community Arizona’s Rank:
46
1.	

Percent of children living in singleparent families

37%

34%

2.	

Percent of children in families where
the household head lacks a high
school diploma

19%

15%

66%

3.	

Percent of children living in highpoverty areas

16%

11%

24%

4.	

1.	

Percent of children not in preschool
(ages 3 to 4)

68%

53%

2.	

Percent of 4th graders not proficient
in reading

74%

68%

3.	

Percent of 8th graders not proficient
in math

69%

4.	

Percent of high school students not
graduating on time

27%

Teen birth rate (per 1,000 teens ages
51%
39%
15
to
19)
Source: The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2012 KIDS COUNT Data Book

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Forecast Tables
Arizona
Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

243,700.5

254,678.5

268,964.2

287,024.3

307,291.5

4.6

4.5

5.6

6.7

7.1

82,030.5

86,084.7

91,768.7

98,060.7

105,000.6

5.5

4.9

6.6

6.9

7.1

2,450.6

2,501.6

2,571.9

2,667.7

2,776.3

1.9

2.1

2.8

3.7

4.1

6,482.6

6,541.0

6,622.8

6,734.3

6,866.8

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.0

17,967.0

24,375.0

34,437.0

46,790.0

55,392.0

33.5

35.7

41.3

35.9

18.4

Phoenix-Mesa MSA

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income ($mill)

168,833.0

176,280.0

185,884.0

198,077.0

212,333.0

% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change

5.0

4.0

5.0

7.0

7.0

56,779.0

59,905.0

64,106.0

68,476.0

73,230.0

6.0

6.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

1,754.0

1,794.0

1,845.0

1,911.0

1,990.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

4,266.0

4,312.0

4,373.0

4,453.0

4,550.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

12,428.0

16,279.0

23,787.0

32,494.0

40,611.0

% change

37.0

31.0

46.0

37.0

25.0

Tucson MSA

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

36,864.0

38,225.0

40,244.0

42,629.0

45,357.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

6.0

11,963.0

12,364.0

12,858.0

13,313.0

13,916.0

4.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

5.0

356.0

360.0

367.0

376.0

386.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

991.0

1,000.0

1,012.0

1,027.0

1,045.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

2,797.0

3,678.0

4,626.0

5,889.0

6,884.0

25.0

32.0

26.0

27.0

17.0

Residential Permits (units)

Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

>>Need More?
Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a
Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship gives your company or organization access to an in-depth
menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as the opportunity to attend quarterly forecast update
meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075.
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center
producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the
most accurate in the Western states.

8

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2012 Fall Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
% change versus year ago for:
JUN
most
most

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADOD
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

3,009.0
2,747.2
261.8
8.7

3,009.4
2,755.8
253.6
8.6

2,980.9
2,757.0
223.9
8.0

3,026.8
2,778.2
248.3
8.5

3,017.9
2,761.4
256.6
...

-0.6
1.0
-15.5
-9.9

-1.6
-0.4
-12.6
-10.9

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADOD
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Mfg, ADES

2,439.5
11.5
110.6
117.6
16.7
37.6
26.3
32.6
95.8
295.0
12.0
69.4
36.6
122.5
44.1
350.5
54.8
306.5
266.0
88.1
55.4
370.5
209.7
41.3

2,459.0
11.6
114.9
117.5
16.6
38.0
26.4
32.7
95.8
296.1
12.0
70.7
36.7
122.7
45.2
352.5
54.6
308.2
273.2
88.3
55.7
370.6
209.4
41.1

2,469.0
11.6
117.4
117.7
16.6
37.9
26.3
32.7
97.1
297.0
12.0
71.7
36.6
122.8
45.6
355.7
55.0
308.1
272.9
87.8
56.1
371.2
210.0
40.9

2,457.6
11.7
120.2
118.3
16.9
38.1
26.4
32.9
98.1
299.1
12.0
71.5
36.9
123.3
45.7
351.2
54.9
309.5
271.5
87.3
56.2
357.3
194.8
42.0

2,417.8
11.9
121.6
118.9
17.0
38.8
26.5
33.0
97.4
298.4
12.1
72.7
36.5
123.1
45.8
348.7
53.1
307.8
267.5
89.9
56.4
323.0
155.8
42.5

2.4
2.6
8.2
0.8
4.3
2.9
0.0
3.1
0.8
2.5
0.0
2.1
-0.5
0.9
3.4
1.9
4.1
3.4
3.4
-0.3
-1.9
2.5
4.8
3.4

1.6
4.5
4.3
...
6.0
0.8
-1.3
1.7
0.9
1.8
0.1
1.3
1.4
1.7
-0.1
1.4
...
3.1
2.7
0.4
-2.2
0.4
1.7
1.5

20.0
18.1
16.0
13.4
23.1

19.9
17.8
15.7
13.3
22.7

20.2
18.1
15.9
13.4
23.1

20.7
17.9
15.9
13.4
22.9

20.6
17.8
16.1
13.6
23.4

5.6
1.1
1.9
2.3
3.5

1.2
4.6
-0.6
-2.4
2.6

6,742,906

7,382,030

6,909,740

6,806,831

...

0.1

6.5

2,184
1,206
10
968

1,374
1,237
23
114

1,705
1,575
14
116

1,945
1,733
58
154

1,684
1,548
9
127

41.9
41.2
125.0
46.0

50.8
36.3
339.5
127.8

Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOD
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures

Arizona Quarterly Data

2011 II

2011 III

2011 IV

2012 I

2012II

Population (000s, seas adj), ADOD & EBR

6,433.6

6,443.6

6,454.4

6,465.5

6,476.8

Natural Increase

9.5

9.7

9.3

9.5

9.6

Net Migration

0.6

1.1

1.6

1.6

2.0

231,809

233,634

236,564

238,335

242,199

36,031

36,258

36,651

36,863

37,395

Total Personal Income ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Arizona Economic Indicators
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA
Monthly Data

% change versus year ago for:
JUN
most
most

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

2,027.4
1,868.6
158.8
7.6

2,027.9
1,875.0
152.9
7.5

2,007.8
1,876.0
131.8
7.1

2,034.7
1,890.4
145.5
...

2,027.9
1,876.7
151.2
...

-0.2
1.5
-17.8
-17.1

-1.3
0.1
-14.9
-11.0

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADOD
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education

1,740.7
3.2
81.3
87.8
34.4
14.4
24.6
81.0
208.0
8.2
53.2
28.1
106.1
34.9
279.7
46.1
209.1
183.9
64.5
21.6
219.4
123.2

1,755.1
3.2
84.5
87.5
34.8
14.5
24.6
80.8
209.1
8.2
53.8
28.2
106.4
35.7
281.2
46.1
210.0
190.2
64.7
21.6
219.3
122.6

1,761.7
3.2
86.6
88.0
34.7
14.5
24.6
81.7
209.8
8.2
54.0
28.1
106.6
36.4
283.1
46.2
210.8
188.5
64.1
21.8
220.0
123.3

1,755.0
3.3
89.4
88.1
34.9
14.5
24.8
83.0
211.4
8.2
53.5
28.5
107.0
36.6
280.8
46.0
212.1
186.8
63.7
21.7
210.1
111.5

1,726.3
3.3
90.1
88.7
35.6
14.6
24.9
82.2
210.9
8.3
54.8
28.4
106.8
36.4
277.6
44.4
210.4
182.4
66.4
21.7
188.6
87.4

2.7
0.0
7.4
1.8
2.6
1.4
-0.4
1.4
2.8
0.0
1.7
1.4
1.3
4.0
1.4
7.5
4.4
3.6
0.9
-1.4
2.3
3.7

2.0
4.5
4.1
1.6
0.6
0.4
-0.5
1.4
2.1
0.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
0.5
1.5
3.9
4.0
3.1
0.8
-3.5
0.2
1.3

4,597,094

5,076,098

4,737,578

4,650,730

...

0.2

6.7

1,566
900
8
658

997
927
15
55

1,261
1,253
8
0

1,428
1,354
20
54

1,192
1,180
2
10

45.4
52.7
...
-78.7

69.4
50.2
114.3
250.9

1,207
7,249
166,567

1,602
8,868
180,605

1,595
8,438
189,077

1,727
8,445
204,500

1,770
9,133
193,764

-0.5
-18.0
21.3

5.2
-0.8
5.5

Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales (millions)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA
Quarterly Data

2011 II

2011 III

2011 IV

2012 I

2012II

Population (000s, seas adj), ADOD & EBR

4,223.9

4,232.9

4,247.2

4,259.2

4,259.2

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.7

Natural Increase
Net Migration
Total Personal Income ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

0.5

1.5

6.7

4.3

-7.7

159,242

161,392

163,516

167,767

169,898

37,700

38,128

38,500

39,389

39,890

* All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Food estimated by EBR.

10

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

October, 2012 Fall Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
Tucson MSA
Monthly Data
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADOD
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Accomodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Service Providing
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

Tucson MSA Quarterly Data

% change versus year ago for:
most
most

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

2012
462.2

2012
460.1

2012
455.9

2012
461.6

2012
455.2

recent mo.
-1.6

recent 12-mo.
-2.3

426.0
36.3
7.7

425.2
34.9
7.7

425.9
30.0
7.2

427.7
33.2
...

420.3
34.9
...

-0.1
-16.8
-14.8

-1.1
-13.9
-9.7

358.4
1.9
16.4
23.3
11.5
7.5
39.1
9.1
4.0
17.4
45.6
58.6
41.8
6.3
29.1
14.1
12.6
67.0
43.9

359.1
1.9
17.4
23.2
11.5
7.5
39.1
9.1
3.9
17.4
45.6
58.4
41.9
6.3
29.7
14.2
12.6
66.9
43.8

360.6
1.9
17.0
23.5
11.5
7.5
38.9
9.2
3.9
17.5
46.9
58.0
42.6
6.3
29.8
14.2
12.6
66.9
43.8

358.7
1.9
16.5
23.4
11.5
7.6
39.2
9.2
4.0
17.6
46.5
57.5
42.0
6.2
29.6
14.2
12.6
66.5
43.3

348.5
1.9
16.9
23.1
11.5
7.6
39.1
9.3
3.9
17.6
46.8
57.7
41.1
6.1
28.9
14.3
12.6
56.6
32.9

1.3
0.0
13.4
-1.3
-1.7
-3.8
-1.5
0.0
-7.1
1.7
2.2
-2.2
6.2
-4.7
4.0
-1.4
0.0
3.1
6.1

0.7
0.9
10.5
-0.8
-3.1
-2.0
-1.7
1.3
-4.4
-0.1
0.8
0.0
5.9
-3.2
3.8
-1.4
0.5
-1.0
0.1

1,031,893

1,083,481

1,014,936 1,004,184

...

2.1

7.1

173
147
2
24

229
182
0
47

199
151
4
44

303
201
2
100

...
...
...
...

87.0
28.0
...
1,900.0

-9.9
6.1
100.0
-50.8

167,639
1,019
164,513

233,229
1,387
168,153

224,278
1,276
175,767

229,316
1,318
173,988

221,813
1,269
174,793

1.1
-3.3
4.6

8.7
16.4
-7.6

2011 II

2011 III

2011 IV

2012 I

2012II

985.6

986.9

988.8

990.3

990.3

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Population (000s, seas adj), ADOD & EBR
Natural Increase

0.5

0.4

1.0

0.7

-0.9

Total Personal Income ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR

35,644

35,920

36,184

36,728

37,000

Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

36,165

36,396

36,595

37,086

37,361

Net Migration

ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOD: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment and
Population Statistics
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11

October, 2012 Fall Issue

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER
McClelland Hall, Room 103
P.O. Box 210108
1130 E. Helen Street
Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108
Marshall J. Vest
Director
(520) 621-4075
mvest@eller.arizona.edu
Alberta Charney, Ph.D.
Research Director
(520) 621-2291
acharney@eller.arizona.edu
George W. Hammond, Ph. D.
Associate Director and Research
Professor
(520) 626-1679
ghammond@eller.arizona.edu
Daniel Kinnear
Specialist, Business Research
(520) 626-1673
dkinnear@eller.arizona.edu
Pia Montoya
Database Specialist
(520) 621-2523
pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu
Maile L. Nadelhoffer
Senior Research
Economist & Webmaster
(520) 621-4050
mln@eller.arizona.edu

Phone: 520-621-2155
Fax: 520-621-2150
E-mail:
ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu
To subscribe to Arizona’s Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:
ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/
Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research
Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by
The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications,
McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108.
Arizona’s Economy is available online at: azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu
As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the
people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated
to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic
data and objective forecasts and analyses.
Copyright 2012 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication
may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at
The University of Arizona.

>> Visit us online at ebr.eller.arizona.edu!

Thank you to our community sponsors for their ongoing support
of Economic and Business Research Center programs.
Arizona Department of Transportation

Cox Communications

Arizona Electric Power Cooperative

Elliott D. Pollack and Company

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Arizona Public Service Company

Maricopa Association of Governments

Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D.
Senior Regional Scientist &
Associate Professor of Geography
(520) 626-0520
vkp@eller.arizona.edu

BBVA Compass

Maricopa County		

CB Richard Ellis

Pima Association of Governments

City of Mesa

Pima County

Heather Peterson
Technical Consultant
(520) 621-4050
thpeterson@comcast.net

City of Phoenix

Salt River Project

City of Tempe

Tucson Electric Power Company

Valorie Rice
Senior Specialist, Business
Information
(520) 621-2109
vrice@eller.arizona.edu

City of Tucson		

Special thanks to
for its ongoing support of
the Economic and Business Research Center website!

ebr.eller.arizona.edu