July 2012 Summer Issue

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER

On the (Low) Road to Recovery
By Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director

June 1, 2012

5.6% and 7.1%, respectively. Both are
stronger than personal income, which
grew by 4.5% in 2011Q4 and 5.0% for
the whole year. Look for a gain in the
4.5%-5.0% range for 2012. Private-sector
wages have been trending upward as well,
with a year-on-year gain of 4.7% as of
2011Q3, the most recent data available.
None of these measures are spectacular,
but they are solid.

Jobs Recovery Takes the Low
Road

R

ecovery of Arizona’s economy from
the depths of the Great Recession
continues to gain momentum even
though progress is slower than normal.
Job creation so far compares to the pace
that followed the mild 1990-91 recession.
The labor force participation rate fell
precipitously during the Great Recession;
will those workers return? Housing prices
are now moving up – at a frenzy-driven
pace! Finally, Hispanics account for the
unprecedented drop-off recently in births
as many presumably left the state.
The national economy appears poised for
a summer slowdown and Arizona likely
will follow, but the most recent crop of
measures for Arizona is encouraging.
Recent readings show retail sales
increasing at an 8% annual rate in the
fourth quarter, and sales were 5.2% higher
in 2012Q1 on a year-on-year basis. First
quarter restaurant & bars sales were up
7.5% and 8.3% in April, year-on-year. Our
forecast calls for gains for all of 2012 of
IN THIS ISSUE

Nonfarm employment continues to recover
slowly, albeit at a slightly faster pace.
Gains for the first three months of 2012
measured 2.1% statewide, year-on-year.
Since bottoming in August 2010, a little
over 75,000 jobs have been created. That

compares to the more than 300,000
jobs lost during the recession. Both
numbers are calculated after seasonal
patterns were removed.
How does this recovery compare to
prior recoveries? The pace of the
current recovery matches very closely
the path of job creation following
the 1990-91 recession. Exhibit 1
superimposes four prior episodes onto
the current. Each is labeled with the
month that recovery began.
In theory, deep recessions should be
followed by rapid recoveries such
as we saw in the mid-1970s and
early 1980s. Even though the recent
recession was much deeper than either
of those, we are currently experiencing

Exhibit 1: Job Gains Remain Modest

Recoveries Compared - Nonfarm Employment, AZ

thousands

130
Aug. 1982

120
Beginning
of recovery

Apr. 1975

May 1991

110
Dec. 2001

100
Current

10

On the (Low) Road to Recovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Forecast Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
Arizona Economic Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8ww

11

12

13

90

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

By 2015, nonfarm
jobs will once again
match the all-time
record high set prior
to onset of recession
at the end of 2007.

growth closely aligned with the shallow and
short recessions of the past two decades.
The period following the 2001 recession
became known as the “jobless recovery.”
We expect some 50,000 jobs to be added
this year and a like number in 2013. When
residential construction resumes in 2014, job
growth will accelerate to 70,000 followed
by gains approaching 100,000 jobs the
following year. By 2015, nonfarm jobs will
once again match the all-time record high
set prior to onset of recession at the end of
2007.

Where Have All the Workers
Gone?
The proportion of the population who are
employed has fallen to levels not seen in
three decades. Exhibit 2 shows a crude
measure of the labor force participation
rate – simply the ratio of the number of
employed to total population. In Arizona,
that ratio now stands at 0.375, the lowest
since the mid-1980s. This ratio peaked
in 2000, fell in the aftermath of the 2001
recession, recovered somewhat, and then
fell precipitously during the Great Recession.
Arizona mirrors the national ratio and
consistently runs four to five percent
lower.

The question is “what happened to the
workers?” Is the explanation that babyboomers are retiring and younger workers
are choosing to stay in school? Or have a
large number of workers simply dropped
out of the labor force, either temporarily or
permanently? If temporarily, then as jobs
are created going forward, these discouraged
workers will reenter the labor force. That’s
a good thing. Although their reentry will
tend to keep the unemployment rate high,
it’s better than adding to the ranks of the
long-term unemployed and disabled roles –
workers that are lost for good.
If workers don’t return, that will limit the
potential for the economy to grow, since
labor is an important component (in addition
to capital and productivity gains). The
unemployment rate is high today, but in the
not-to-distant future we could experience
labor shortages (especially in many
knowledge and skill occupations).
We expect the employment-to-population
ratio to move higher but remain well below
the peak at the turn of the century.

Exhibit 2: Fewer are Working

Employment to Population Ratio

0.50

US

0.45

The unemployment
AZ

rate is high today, but in

0.40

the not-to-distant future
0.35

we could experience
labor shortages

0.30
0.25
65

2

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

10

0.20

July, 2012 Summer Issue

Arizona’s Housing Market
Shows Signs of Life

measures repeat sales and thereby controls
for the changing mix of properties sold,
shows a more modest increase for Phoenix
of 9.5% expressed as an annual rate since
bottoming 5 months ago. Case-Shiller data
is not available for Tucson. Exhibit 3 puts
these increases in perspective.

Housing prices across the state have finally
turned the corner and are headed upward.
As expected, market psychology has changed
dramatically, resulting in a bit of frenzy once
again. Some industry analysts warn that
home prices are about to explode by noting
the shortage of properties available for sale,
multiple offers on newly listed properties,
and properties selling above asking prices.
The frenzy is reportedly driven (largely) by
investors who have sensed that prices have
bottomed and that now is the time to jump
in with both feet before it’s too late. Likewise
for buyers who intend to occupy their newlypurchased home. Real estate investment
trusts (REITs) also are reportedly buying
properties for renting.

After being cut in half during the past
5 years, prices remain well below trend
and have a lot of catching up to do. But
numerous questions cloud the outlook.
How sustainable is the price support from
investors? Given still-tight credit conditions
for mortgages and with heated competition
from cash buyers, what is the effective
demand from potential homeowners? When
will population mobility and migration flows
resume? On the supply side, how much
“shadow inventory” will be marketed as
prices increase?

Housing prices are indeed moving upward
at a fast clip, but the magnitude depends on
the measure used. Realtor data shows the
largest gains. In metro Phoenix, the median
value of homes sold on the MLS jumped at a
32% annual rate over the past 9 months! The
bottom was reached in June of last year. (In
metro Tucson, the increase is 15% over the
past six months.) By contrast, the Standard
and Poor’s Case-Shiller index, which

The upward
movement in prices
is indeed a welcome
development that marks
the start of a return to
normalcy.

In short, housing markets are still far from
“normal.” But progress is being made in
reducing the inventory of distressed sales,
foreclosures are receding, and homeowner
equity positions are improving. The upward
movement in prices is indeed a welcome
development that marks the start of a return
to normalcy.

Exhibit 3: Housing Prices are Headed Higher
median price
thousands

Home Prices, Metro Phoenix

300

index

300

250

250

200
Realtors: median
price of homes
sold

150

200

June 06
227.4

150

100

100
S&P/Case-Shiller Index
(seasonally adjusted)

50
0

95

97

99

01

03

05

Feb. 12 = 104.1
down 54.2%

07

09

11

50
0

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

3

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Hispanics Account for the
Large Decline in Births

women are younger and still in child-bearing
ages. During the middle of the past decade,
Hispanics accounted for over 44% of total
births statewide, although they comprised
only 30% of the total population. In 2011,
Hispanics’ share of total births fell to 38.1%.

One of the most striking developments
during the Great Recession was the
unprecedented decline in the number of
births in Arizona. After peaking in October
2007, just before the economy began its
steep decline, total seasonally-adjusted
births fell by 18.1% before bottoming in
May 2011. Since then, with data through
February, births have increased by almost
1.5%. That’s one more indicator that
economic conditions are finally improving.

Using annual data, the number of Hispanic
births fell 29.2% from 2007 to 2011, while
non-Hispanic births fell only 7.7%. All this
suggests that many Hispanic families have
left the state in recent years
(Exhibit 5).

The bad economy was most certainly a factor
as families postponed having children. But
the decline was much more pronounced than
in prior recessions. Another possibility is that
women of child-bearing age left the state.
Again, the job losses suffered during the
recession were no doubt a factor, along with
Arizona’s crackdown on illegal immigration
capped by the infamous SB1070.
This is particularly relevant since Hispanic
birth rates are much higher than nonHispanics. Data from the 2010 Census show
that Hispanic women give birth to 2.4 babies
on average compared to 1.8 for non-Hispanic
whites. Add to that the fact that Hispanic

Exhibit 4: Hispanics Account for Falling Births

Number of Births Annually, AZ

thousands

120
100

Total

80
60
40
Hispanic

20
85
4

90

95

00

05

10

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

0

July, 2012 Summer Issue

The Outlook
Recent news on the U.S. economy has
been disappointing and raises the specter
of a summer slowdown, much like last
year. Employment gains have been weak,
consumer confidence has moved lower, the
stock market gave up all its gains for the
year during May, and Euro zone troubles
worsened. These recent developments are
in addition to a long list of factors that are
restraining growth. The list includes tight
credit, ongoing deleveraging, housing market
woes, reduced mobility of the population,
and the drag from public sector spending.

Our forecasts
for Arizona call for
continued slow growth
for the remainder of this
year and next
followed by cautious
acceleration .....

Our forecasts for Arizona call for continued
slow growth for the remainder of this year
and next followed by cautious acceleration
as migration flows improve and construction
begins to move up. Historically, deep
recessions have been followed by rapid
recoveries. But recessions involving financial
meltdowns take much longer. We still expect
it to be mid-decade before all the damage
from the Great Recession is repaired.

>>Need More?
Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a
Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship gives your company or organization access to an in-depth
menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as the opportunity to attend quarterly forecast update
meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075.
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center
producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the
most accurate in the Western states.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Forecast Tables
Arizona
Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

2013

2014

2015

2016

243,396.8

254,807.4

269,343.7

286,809.8

306,500.9

4.6

4.7

5.7

6.5

6.9

82,908.8

87,026.0

91,927.5

98,217.6

105,149.4

6.7

5.0

5.6

6.8

7.1

2,458.2

2,511.0

2,581.4

2,679.2

2,785.5

2.0

2.1

2.8

3.8

4.0

6,480.6

6,535.3

6,615.0

6,725.0

6,856.9

0.7

0.8

1.2

1.7

2.0

17,165.0

22,706.0

33,162.0

45,859.0

54,746.0

28.2

32.3

46.1

38.3

19.4

Phoenix-Mesa MSA

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income ($mill)

165,356.0

172,473.0

181,797.0

192,763.0

206,005.0

% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change

4.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

56,761.0

59,485.0

62,995.0

66,745.0

71,327.0

6.0

5.0

6.0

6.0

7.0

1,752.0

1,789.0

1,839.0

1,900.0

1,973.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

3.0

4.0

4,260.0

4,293.0

4,345.0

4,414.0

4,502.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

12,079.0

13,591.0

21,456.0

28,841.0

36,558.0

% change

33.0

13.0

58.0

34.0

27.0

Tucson MSA

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

37,019.0

38,592.0

40,767.0

43,130.0

45,772.0

3.0

4.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

12,146.0

12,598.0

13,024.0

13,527.0

14,137.0

6.0

4.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

356.0

361.0

369.0

380.0

390.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

3.0

991.0

1,000.0

1,014.0

1,030.0

1,048.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

2,662.0

3,877.0

5,138.0

6,379.0

6,863.0

19.0

46.0

33.0

24.0

8.0

Residential Permits (units)

Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

6

2012

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

July, 2012 Summer Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
% change versus year ago for:
most
most

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

3,019.4
2,757.7
261.6
9.1

3,014.0
2,750.1
263.9
9.0

2,981.4
2,718.3
263.1
8.7

3,009.0
2,747.2
261.8
8.7

3,010.0
2,756.1
253.9
8.6

-1.2
-0.1
-11.9
-14.6

-2.0
-0.9
-11.8
-10.1

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Mfg, ADES

2,455.1
11.5
111.1
118.5
16.3
37.6
26.5
32.4
96.1
306.3
12.0
71.2
36.8
125.5
44.8
353.7
56.7
305.1
258.7
87.4
56.1
370.7
209.8
...

2,456.0
11.6
110.0
116.8
16.3
37.6
26.5
32.6
97.4
306.4
12.3
71.7
37.7
127.2
45.8
357.7
56.3
305.9
260.4
86.2
56.2
363.4
202.3
...

2,420.8
11.3
109.8
116.7
16.3
37.5
26.6
32.6
96.4
297.6
12.1
69.5
37.0
124.9
44.9
352.4
54.3
305.1
258.3
85.1
55.5
356.9
195.4
...

2,447.2
11.3
108.5
117.3
16.5
37.6
26.4
32.8
96.2
294.7
12.0
70.0
36.6
125.1
45.2
357.4
54.8
306.7
265.9
86.2
55.4
371.4
209.9
...

2,466.1
11.4
112.3
117.6
16.4
38.1
26.5
32.8
96.2
295.3
12.0
71.1
36.8
125.3
46.6
359.1
54.6
307.5
273.6
86.9
55.9
370.6
209.6
...

2.3
-0.9
4.1
0.7
4.8
1.6
-0.1
2.9
0.6
1.5
-0.3
1.0
1.2
3.2
4.7
4.0
-1.6
3.5
4.0
-2.5
-1.2
1.4
3.6
0.5

1.5
3.1
1.1
...
5.7
1.1
-2.2
1.7
0.9
1.4
0.1
2.5
1.3
3.5
0.7
2.5
...
2.9
2.3
-0.8
-5.1
-0.1
1.0
2.4

19.7
17.9
15.9
13.4
23.5

20.1
18.3
15.4
13.0
23.0

20.0
18.2
15.9
13.4
23.3

19.9
18.2
16.0
13.5
23.1

...
...
...
...
...

-2.4
6.1
-0.9
-2.7
1.9

0.7
4.8
-1.3
-2.9
1.0

6,548,489

7,786,229

6,348,013

6,753,385

...

7.1

9.0

1,159
740
14
405

1,025
811
150
64

1,204
894
51
864

2,184
1,206
10
968

1,374
1,237
23
114

10.7
18.5
...
-42.1

30.9
17.3
144.5
144.4

Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA Economic Indicators
% change versus year ago for:
most
most

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

2,123.1
1,960.5
162.6
7.9

2,127.9
1,960.8
167.1
8.0

2,007.2
1,848.4
158.8
7.6

2,046.4
1,889.1
157.4
7.6

2,027.1
1,873.5
153.6
7.5

-5.0
-3.9
-17.2
-17.1

-1.3
-0.3
-11.5
-11.0

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education

1,755.3
3.3
83.2
88.3
35.0
14.6
25.1
80.8
220.2
8.2
54.1
28.0
108.3
35.5
285.6
46.4
205.7
178.7
63.7
21.7
217.1
121.3

1,759.4
3.3
82.0
87.2
35.1
14.7
25.2
82.2
220.7
8.1
53.9
28.7
109.8
36.2
289.7
46.8
207.0
180.1
62.3
21.8
219.0
123.4

1,732.5
3.2
81.7
87.4
34.7
14.7
24.8
82.0
212.6
8.1
53.2
28.0
107.6
35.7
283.1
45.5
206.2
178.9
61.9
21.6
211.4
114.8

1,749.8
3.2
81.1
87.8
34.8
14.5
25.0
81.4
209.9
8.1
53.1
28.2
108.0
35.9
286.4
46.2
207.7
183.8
63.3
21.6
...
...

1,764.5
3.2
84.1
87.8
35.3
14.6
25.0
81.1
210.7
8.1
53.7
28.3
108.3
36.8
288.0
46.2
208.1
190.9
63.6
21.6
...
...

2.9
1.0
5.0
1.5
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.3
2.7
-1.0
1.0
1.6
3.3
5.0
4.5
3.3
3.7
5.0
-2.0
-2.3
-0.4
0.9

2.1
5.1
2.4
1.6
1.8
-0.4
1.0
1.5
2.3
-0.6
2.8
2.1
3.7
1.9
3.1
3.9
3.3
2.8
-0.4
-8.2
-1.1
-1.0

4,495,341

5,426,385

4,366,247

4,618,591

...

6.7

9.0

909
527
14
368

573
573
0
0

676
673
3
0

1,566
900
8
658

997
927
15
55

12.4
29.5
...
-67.8

50.7
29.7
11.6
248.4

1,061
6,381
166,199

1,176
6,954
169,054

973
5,738
169,648

1,207
7,249
166,567

1,477
7,843
188,372

2.9
-9.6
13.8

3.2
6.6
-2.8

Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales (millions)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

8

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

July, 2012 Summer Issue

Tucson MSA Economic Indicators

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Accomodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Service Providing
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

% change versus year ago for:
most
most

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

2011
487.9

2011
486.3

2012
458.5

2012
469.0

2012
462.5

recent mo.
-6.0

recent 12-mo.
-1.8

450.8
37.1
7.8

448.0
38.3
8.1

422.4
36.1
7.6

432.9
36.1
7.7

427.1
35.4
7.7

-5.1
-15.3
-14.8

-0.9
-10.8
-9.7

358.0
1.9
15.0
23.2
11.6
8.0
39.1
9.5
4.2
17.4
46.5
60.4
38.5
6.2
27.9
14.1
12.6
67.6
43.9

355.6
1.9
14.8
23.2
11.6
8.0
39.3
9.4
4.2
17.5
46.3
59.9
38.4
6.0
28.1
14.1
12.6
66.1
42.6

351.7
1.9
14.9
23.0
11.6
7.7
38.9
9.3
4.1
17.4
45.8
59.5
38.5
5.9
27.8
13.8
12.6
64.4
41.5

355.1
1.9
14.7
23.1
11.5
7.7
38.9
9.3
4.1
17.4
46.0
59.2
39.2
6.2
28.5
14.0
12.6
67.0
43.9

354.4
1.9
15.3
23.1
11.5
7.7
38.6
9.3
4.0
17.5
45.6
59.0
38.8
6.2
29.2
14.1
12.6
65.3
43.9

-0.7
-2.3
3.4
-0.8
-2.5
-0.9
-2.1
-0.4
-2.6
0.7
-1.6
0.0
-2.2
-6.2
2.0
-3.0
0.8
-2.4
1.4

-0.2
-0.2
-0.9
-1.8
-3.8
0.0
-1.3
4.4
-2.0
-0.8
0.6
1.6
1.0
-3.6
2.5
-1.2
-1.9
-1.9
-0.6

984,009

1,149,403

931,201

1,041,017

...

11.6

8.6

102
100
0
2

139
138
0
1

113
113
0
0

173
147
2
24

229
182
0
47

17.4
7.7
...
80.8

-25.0
-5.4
-20.0
-76.8

160,810
1,015
158,434

155,173
961
161,471

143,709
915
157,059

167,639
1,019
164,513

233,229
1,387
168,153

22.0
18.6
2.8

2.8
15.5
-11.1

DATA TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOD: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment
and Population Statistics

ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona

Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at
least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than
50,000 inhabitants.
MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core
urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.
PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Dept. of Homeland
Security.

* All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu
ebr eller arizona edu

9

July, 2012 Summer Issue

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