April 2012 Spring Issue

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER

The Future is A Lot Like the Present, Only Longer

-- Yogi Berra

By Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director

March 1, 2012

Census did not. As a result, the state
demographer’s estimates appropriately
show more growth early in the decade and
a flatter pattern during the recession.
Using the preferred set, annual population
increased statewide, approaching 200,000
during 2005-06, but fell to only 20,500 in
2009 and 12,500 in 2010. Newly-released
estimates for 2011 show improvement with
a (still depressed) 36,600 gain. We expect
a gradual upward climb with the annual
gain topping out at 135,000 by 2016
(Exhibit 1).

A

rizona’s economy continued
enjoying modest improvement
during the final quarter of 2011.
Preliminary readings for the first quarter
are unspectacular, but we expect the pace
to quicken as 2012 progresses. However,
that doesn’t mean that Arizona’s economy
will overheat any time soon. Imbalances in
real estate, depressed population mobility,
and severe budget constraints in the public
sector will continue to exert a drag on the
pace of recovery.
It has been nearly two years since the
2010 Census was conducted, and only now
are the results for population growth and
changing demographics coming into focus.
Analysts have agreed, once again, that
population estimates produced by Arizona’s
state demographer are far superior to
those of the U.S. Census Bureau. In
deriving the annual estimates between
the two decennial census years, the state
demographer incorporated results from
the mid-decade special census, conducted
in many communities across Arizona. The

During the recession, natural increase
slowed significantly, due to a precipitous
decline in births. In 2007, natural increase
added 58,400 (births numbered 103,000
while deaths were 44,600). In 2011, the

corresponding numbers were 38,300,
85,500, and 47,200, respectively.
Net migration, by far the largest and
most volatile component of population
dynamics, dove into deeply negative
territory during the recession. From
an increase of nearly 150,000 net in
2005, migration flows turned negative
in 2009-2010, with annual losses of
near 32,000. The 2011 estimate shows
recovery of net migration to very near
zero. We expect little improvement
this year or next, as potential inmigrants from other states remain
locked in their homes due to negative
equity positions. By 2017, we project
net migration to approach 95,000
per year, a level close to long-term
averages (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 1: Population Gain by Component, Arizona, 2000 - 2011 (000s)
Population

Annual Growth
Net
Natural
Rate (%)
Change Migration Increase

2000

5,175.6

3.0%

151.8

108.7

43.1

2001

5,287.5

2.2%

111.9

67.2

44.7

2002

5,411.2

2.3%

123.7

79.8

43.8

2003

5,554.2

2.6%

143.0

95.9

47.2

2004

5,725.6

3.1%

171.4

122.6

48.8

2005

5,924.5

3.5%

198.9

147.7

51.2

2006

6,116.4

3.2%

191.9

139.5

52.5

2007

6,275.0

2.6%

158.6

100.1

58.4

2008

6,368.6

1.5%

93.6

37.4

56.3

2009

6,389.1

0.3%

20.5

-31.8

52.2

2010

6,401.6

0.2%

12.5

-31.9

44.3

2011

6,438.2

0.6%

36.6

-1.7

38.3

IN THIS ISSUE
The Future is A Lot Like the Present, Only Longer -- Yogi Berra.. 1
Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Arizona Economic Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Since bottoming in
August 2010, roughly
36,000 net new jobs
have been created.

Recent Evidence
Nonfarm employment statewide continued
its slow upward march during the fourth
quarter. Since bottoming in August 2010,
roughly 36,000 net new jobs have been
created. That compares to a (seasonallyadjusted) loss of nearly 310,000 during the
recession.
Though recent gains remain small, every
industry segment with the exception of
“State & Local Government, Excluding
Education” is higher than its respective low.
Arizona’s unemployment rate finished the
year at 8.7%, compared to 8.5% nationwide.
One year earlier, unemployment measured
nearly a point higher at 9.6%.
Retail sales statewide grew by nearly 9% in
2011, the largest increase since 2005’s gain
of 13.4%. However, year-on-year increases
slowed as 2011 came to an end, with a gain
of only 4.9% in November and 3.5% in
December. History shows that after a big
increase (largely driven by the satisfaction of
pent-up demand), gains the following year
are significantly lower. We’re expecting an
increase of roughly 4.5% this year, which is
more commensurate with gains in personal
income.

Arizona’s

Wages have been trending upward since
the recession ended and recent gains are
the strongest since 2006. Using QCEW data
through 2011Q2, private sector wages have
increased 3.0% over the past year. The
prior quarter showed an even stronger gain
of 5.4%, reflecting a resumption of yearend bonuses in industries such as mining
(up 19.1%), air transportation (up 16.5%),
finance (up 12.9%), manufacturing (up
11.2%), accommodations (up 8.9%), and
utilities (up 6.6%). See Exhibit 3.
Arizona’s housing markets showed a glimmer
of hope with release of the Federal Housing
Finance Agency’s (FHFA) housing price
index for 2011Q4. That index for the metro
Phoenix area has now increased for two
consecutive quarters in a row, gaining 2.1%
in the third and 2.7% in the fourth quarter,
quarter-on-quarter. This index includes
purchases and refinanced mortgages. The
purchases-only portion rose by an outsized
7.01% in the fourth quarter, which was far
and away the largest increase among the 25
largest metros (Exhibit 4).
Metro Tucson’s price index rose 1.1%
in the fourth quarter, its first gain since
2007. The Prescott MSA saw a gain of
2.87%, nearly identical to metro Phoenix.

Exhibit 2: Population Growth Will Slowly Return to Normal

Annual Changes in Population, AZ

unemployment rate

thousands

150

finished the year at
8.7%. One year earlier,

net migration

unemployment measured

100

nearly a point higher at
9.6%.

50
natural increase

0

65
2

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

20

-50

April, 2012 Spring Issue

Exhibit 3: Wage Gains are Improving

Prices in both Flagstaff (-2.07%) and Yuma
(-0.54%) continued to decline in the fourth
quarter.

Average Wages Per Employee, AZ - Private Sectors

It’s still a bit early to call the bottom in
housing prices, and a few more quarters
will be needed to ensure that the upward
trend doesn’t reverse direction. Moreover,
prices are still declining in Los Angeles,
San Diego and Las Vegas. Changes in these
areas have historically preceded changes in
Arizona housing markets. It is encouraging
that prices increased during the 4th quarter
in Albuquerque, Austin, Colorado Springs,
Dallas, Denver, Santa Fe, Salt Lake City, and
Riverside. This provides some assurance that
the gains locally are not an anomaly. Once
prices convincingly turn upward, market
psychology will change for the better and the
healing process will accelerate.

The recovery remains in its infancy and it
will take years to repair the damage to the
Arizona economy suffered during the Great
Recession.
Government spending remains a drag on
growth and poses huge risks to the economy
if policy mistakes are not avoided. Fiscal
policy is tightening and will subtract as much

10
8
6

seasonally adjusted and
smoothed

4
2
0
-2

source: QCEW

06

The Outlook

% chg yr ago

07

08

09

10

11

-4

as 2.5% from GDP growth in 2013 unless
Congress addresses automatic spending cuts
triggered by failure of the “Budget Super
Committee,” as well as expiration of the
Bush tax cuts, AMT fixes, payroll tax cut, and
emergency unemployment insurance. All
expire January 1, 2013.
Nationwide, six million homeowners are
delinquent and the new program allowing

Exhibit 4: Have Housing Prices Bottomed?

Home Price Appreciation - FHFA Repeat Sales Index

index

300

Phoenix: -50.0%

250

Wages have been
trending upward since
the recession ended and

200

private sector wages have
increased 3.0% over the

Tucson: -36.0%

150

Latest Data: 2011Q4

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

past year.

100

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

3

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

The good news is that credit is growing again....Consumer confidence is
improving and Europe is making progress on addressing financial distress
related to sovereign debt and banking systems

certain underwater homeowners to refinance
provides only $25 billion, compared to an
estimated $700 billion in negative equity.
Although positive, it looks to be too little and
too late.
Commercial real estate markets are also
distressed. Nationwide, CRE prices are
moving sideways and are down 40% from
the peak, while half of the $1.4 trillion CRE
loans that need to be refinanced over the
next three years are under water.
The good news is that credit is growing once
again as measured by bank commercial and
industrial loans. Consumer confidence is
improving (although still low) and Europe

is making progress on addressing financial
distress related to sovereign debt and
banking systems. All things considered, the
risk of recession for the U.S. now stands at
25%, down considerably from last summer
when the odds were even.
We continue to look for another year or two
of slow recovery for the Arizona economy.
We expect job growth running at less than
2% this year and next, personal income
growth of 4% or so annually, and population
growth remaining below 1%. By middecade, we can expect employment growth
to rebound to 4%, population to 2.0% and
personal income to 7.0%.

All things considered, the risk of recession for the U.S. now stands at
25%, down from last summer when the odds were even.

>>Need More?
Do you need more detailed and comprehensive forecast data and analysis? Learn about the benefits of becoming a
Forecasting Project sponsor. Forecasting Project sponsorship gives your company or organization access to an in-depth
menu of economic forecasting and consulting services, as well as the opportunity to attend quarterly forecast update
meetings. Contact Marshall Vest at mvest@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.4075.
The Forecasting Project is a community-sponsored research unit within the Economic and Business Research Center
producing quarterly economic forecasts for Arizona and its metro areas. These forecasts are recognized as among the
most accurate in the Western states.
4

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2012 Spring Issue

Forecast Tables
Arizona
Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

251,629.3

266,276.4

284,437.2

304,560.1

324,714.3

4.0

5.8

6.8

7.1

6.6

85,892.8

90,767.0

97,278.5

104,136.8

109,711.9

5.5

5.7

7.2

7.1

5.4

2,490.4

2,562.4

2,662.7

2,772.5

2,875.6

2.0

2.9

3.9

4.1

3.7

6,536.6

6,618.5

6,731.6

6,866.4

7,004.2

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.0

23,353.0

34,795.0

48,060.0

56,911.0

58,522.0

35.3

49.0

38.1

18.4

2.8

Phoenix-Mesa MSA

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Personal Income ($mill)

171,284.0

181,328.0

193,926.0

209,050.0

224,791.0

4.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

8.0

58,806.0

62,927.0

67,496.0

72,740.0

76,709.0

5.0

7.0

7.0

8.0

5.0

1,764.0

1,821.0

1,897.0

1,990.0

2,081.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

4,308.0

4,381.0

4,474.0

4,588.0

4,705.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

3.0

16,302.0

27,340.0

37,626.0

47,553.0

48,946.0

32.0

68.0

38.0

26.0

3.0

Residential Permits (units)
% change

% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

Tucson MSA
Personal Income ($mill)
% change
Retail Sales ($mill)
% change
Nonfarm Employment (000s)
% change
Population (000s)
% change
Residential Permits (units)
% change

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

39,276.0

41,569.0

44,229.0

47,070.0

49,735.0

4.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

12,326.0

12,838.0

13,504.0

14,156.0

14,681.0

4.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

362.0

371.0

383.0

394.0

403.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

3.0

2.0

1,004.0

1,019.0

1,037.0

1,057.0

1,076.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

4,646.0

6,283.0

7,320.0

7,574.0

7,508.0

36.0

35.0

17.0

3.0

-1.0

DATA TABLES: SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOD: Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment
and Population Statistics
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona

Micropolitan SA: Micropolitan Statistical Area must have at
least one urban cluster of at least 10,000, but less than
50,000 inhabitants.
MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area must have at least one core
urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.
PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Dept. of Homeland
Security.

* All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona.

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Arizona Economic Indicators
Arizona Monthly Data

% change versus year ago for:
most
most

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

3,159.8
2,863.1
296.7
9.3

3,159.9
2,878.7
281.3
9.1

3,171.4
2,889.4
281.9
9.0

3,159.7
2,893.4
266.3
8.7

3,158.8
2,885.6
273.3
8.7

-0.2
0.4
-6.6
-9.4

-0.3
0.6
-7.8
-7.3

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Mfg, ADES

2,383.7
12.4
113.1
115.7
15.0
37.0
28.3
32.1
95.6
288.9
12.0
71.2
36.8
120.3
43.1
338.4
52.9
300.4
255.8
92.2
58.6
343.1
178.8
40.4

2,412.6
12.2
115.3
115.8
15.0
36.9
28.4
31.9
95.3
290.0
11.9
71.3
36.3
119.9
42.7
338.9
56.5
300.8
257.6
91.4
58.5
365.1
203.1
40.7

2,432.0
12.4
117.6
117.3
15.2
36.9
28.4
32.1
94.6
293.8
12.0
72.1
36.4
120.1
43.1
342.6
56.7
303.7
258.7
91.6
58.1
367.9
206.8
40.4

2,442.7
12.4
112.1
116.9
15.1
36.9
28.5
32.1
95.1
305.4
11.9
71.7
36.7
121.2
43.2
345.3
56.9
303.9
256.6
91.1
57.3
371.7
210.5
...

2,439.7
12.5
110.0
116.2
15.1
36.9
28.5
32.3
96.4
305.4
11.9
70.2
37.3
122.4
44.1
349.3
56.2
303.4
259.1
89.8
57.4
364.5
203.3
...

0.8
9.6
0.3
0.4
6.8
0.7
-0.6
1.1
-1.9
0.7
-0.4
-2.7
0.9
3.0
-3.3
-0.7
1.9
2.9
2.2
0.4
-0.3
0.4
1.1
0.5

0.8
11.3
-0.4
...
6.3
1.2
-2.5
1.1
-1.0
0.3
-0.6
4.4
-0.2
1.8
-2.9
0.4
...
2.8
2.0
3.1
-3.5
-0.7
0.5
2.4

19.7
17.5
15.8
13.2
23.2

19.4
17.5
15.9
13.4
22.9

19.4
18.0
16.2
13.7
23.3

...
...
...
...
...

...
...
...
...
...

0.8
8.0
0.4
-1.5
4.0

0.5
1.8
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6

6,155,107

6,294,987

6,178,677

6,545,017

...

7.1

9.4

1,439
1,040
10
389

1,199
984
18
197

943
789
19
135

1,159
740
14
405

1,025
811
150
64

26.7
28.5
...
-64.0

5.9
-3.1
44.0
66.9

Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures

6

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2012 Spring Issue

Arizona Economic Indicators
Phoenix-Mesa MSA Monthly Data

% change versus year ago for:
most
most

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

recent mo.

recent 12-mo.

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

2,115.2
1,936.8
178.4
8.2

2,119.1
1,948.6
170.5
8.0

2,128.2
1,956.7
171.5
8.1

2,123.1
1,960.5
162.6
7.9

2,127.9
1,960.8
167.1
8.0

0.1
0.9
-7.9
-8.0

0.0
0.9
-9.1
-9.2

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Products
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Education

1,695.2
3.3
83.7
86.1
33.9
16.3
25.0
81.2
203.9
8.3
55.1
27.8
104.1
33.7
268.3
43.9
202.7
175.0
68.0
22.5
201.4
102.7

1,716.8
3.2
85.1
86.2
33.8
16.4
24.8
81.3
204.0
8.3
55.8
27.6
104.1
33.7
267.6
45.5
205.5
176.6
67.7
22.4
216.5
119.0

1,731.3
3.3
87.4
87.3
33.8
16.5
24.9
80.4
207.7
8.4
55.9
27.4
103.7
34.0
270.6
45.9
206.7
178.2
68.1
22.5
217.9
121.0

1,738.4
3.3
82.5
86.8
33.7
16.6
24.9
80.4
217.1
8.3
55.9
27.8
104.5
33.9
273.0
46.4
205.6
177.4
67.6
22.2
219.8
123.0

1,739.3
3.3
80.6
86.3
33.7
16.6
24.9
81.8
217.5
8.3
55.9
28.0
106.0
34.5
277.2
46.1
205.8
178.9
65.6
22.3
215.5
118.7

0.8
4.2
-0.4
1.2
0.2
2.1
-0.3
-0.9
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.6
3.7
-3.8
-1.2
4.3
3.4
2.3
0.0
-0.9
0.1
1.0

1.2
7.1
-0.1
0.5
1.0
-0.7
1.1
-0.5
0.3
0.1
4.3
0.3
2.3
-2.2
0.3
5.3
3.4
2.6
4.3
-6.9
-0.7
-0.5

4,230,639

4,306,423

4,205,337

4,493,048

...

5.9

9.8

1,126
739
4
383

912
712
14
186

667
538
15
114

909
527
14
368

573
573
0
0

23.8
45.4
...
-100.0

14.6
2.2
-44.6
127.0

1,318
8,712
151,240

1,224
7,892
155,084

1,159
7,563
153,289

1,147
7,146
160,564

1,270
7,840
161,944

NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA

Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales (millions)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

Arizona Economic Indicators
Tucson MSA Monthly Data

% change versus year ago for:
most
most

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)

2011
485.5

2011
487.6

2011
489.6

2011
487.9

2011
486.3

recent mo.
-0.5

recent 12-mo.
-0.7

444.6
40.9
8.2

448.7
38.9
7.9

450.8
38.8
8.0

450.8
37.1
7.9

448.0
38.3
8.0

0.1
-7.1
-6.7

0.1
-8.5
-7.9

Employees on Non Farm Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total Non Farm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Accomodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Service Providing
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education

352.4
1.9
15.3
23.5
11.9
7.8
39.6
9.4
4.2
17.4
46.2
59.5
37.6
6.3
27.1
14.4
12.7
63.0
39.3

358.3
2.0
15.5
24.2
12.2
7.7
39.5
9.4
4.2
17.3
46.0
58.7
40.1
6.3
27.8
14.2
12.8
66.7
43.2

359.6
2.0
15.7
24.4
12.1
7.7
38.7
9.5
4.1
17.4
46.0
59.1
40.6
6.4
27.8
14.2
12.8
67.3
43.7

361.2
2.0
15.4
24.5
12.2
7.7
39.3
9.4
4.2
17.5
45.9
59.6
40.4
6.3
28.0
14.2
12.7
68.3
44.6

358.8
2.0
15.2
24.3
12.1
7.8
39.4
9.3
4.2
17.6
45.7
59.0
40.7
6.3
28.3
14.1
12.7
66.9
43.4

0.0
6.0
1.5
3.7
0.8
-1.6
-4.0
0.6
0.0
-0.2
-3.8
0.0
6.8
-3.2
3.7
0.6
1.6
-1.0
-1.1

0.3
6.0
0.2
-1.4
-2.2
-3.2
-0.7
5.3
-3.5
-1.3
0.3
1.6
3.3
1.3
2.6
1.4
-1.2
-1.2
0.0

924,884

933,219

925,140

983,457

...

11.2

7.6

159
153
0
6

135
128
2
5

146
125
0
21

102
100
0
2

139
138
0
1

-19.2
1.5
...
-97.2

-12.0
-15.3
-84.6
7.0

171,368
1,106
154,944

160,344
1,064
150,699

149,079
982
151,812

160,810
1,015
158,434

155,173
961
161,471

-8.2
6.0
-13.4

-2.2
13.2
-13.4

Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)

8

Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona

April, 2012 Spring Issue

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