October, 2010— Fall Issue October, 2010— Fall Issue The Recovery is Stronger than Appreciated By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director September 1, 2010 So far, recovery in Arizona’s economy is proceeding nicely and is much better than one might think. It will take a while for many to see the improvement, and it will take time to repair all the damage done. But the good news is that the economy is improving. Longer term, we continue to expect nation-leading growth to return and for Arizona to become one of the most populous states. Our annual update of the 30-year forecast is little changed from a year ago: Arizona will have nearly six million additional residents 30 years hence. Business news flowing from national sources in recent weeks has offered a downbeat assessment of the recovery’s strength. The slowing of second quarter GDP growth to 1.6% is an example. Reports blamed weak consumer spending that’s dampened by uncertainty and sluggish job growth. In Arizona, retail sales bounced up nicely in the second half of 2009 before giving up some of prior gains in recent months. The pattern no doubt reflects the “cash for clunkers” and homebuyer credit programs, both of which moved sales forward, thereby borrowing from future months. Both programs have ended and that accounts for the recent “giveback.” Since bottoming in July 2009 (and with 10 months data through May), sales have grown at a 1.9% annual rate. This is not a “dead-cat bounce” and we expect sales to turn up again during the second half. All considered, what we’re seeing is a much quicker rebound than following the prior recession (Exhibit 1). Inside This Issue: T S R 1 A ‐ Marshall J. Vest Interpretation of recent sales data is complicated by a coding error that affected the allocation of sales tax collections between categories. The revised data presented in Exhibit 1 shows sales being weaker in 2008-09 and stronger in recent months than originally reported. Proper adjustment of the data is critical to properly assess current conditions. The asreported data suggests that spending is collapsing once again and another down-leg in the business cycle is at L P R 5 I ‐ S E S Marshall J. Vest C C ‐ 6 “B E ” Vera Pavlakovich‐ Kochi, Ph.D. E D F AZ E 14 ‐ 17 Exhibit 1: Consumers Are spending Again Retail Sales, AZ seasonally adjusted annual rate and moving average $ billions 60 55 50 45 40 35 99 01 03 05 07 09 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 30 Arizona’s Economy Since bottoming in November 2009, nonfarm employment has grown by nearly 40,000 and is growing at a 3‐4% annual rate. That’s more than twice the pace that jobs were added during the “jobless recovery” of 2002 hand. With the appropriate adjustments, we see that the recovery in consumer spending is progressing nicely. We’ve reduced our near-term forecast for consumer spending for a multitude of reasons. Basically, we think the deleveraging process still has a way to go, and that credit creation will proceed slowly, thereby limiting consumers’ willingness and ability to spend freely. For all of 2010, retail sales are expected to show a gain of 2.7%, followed by 6.4% next year and a double-digit gain in 2012. Another bellwether measure shows that nonfarm employment nationwide dropped 131,000 in July. The drop largely reflected layoffs of temporary Census workers along with more cuts at the state and local level. Private sector jobs grew by only 71,000, a disappointing result. In Arizona, recovery continued to gain strength during the second quarter. Since bottoming in November 2009, nonfarm employment has grown by nearly 40,000 and is growing at a 3-4% annual rate. That’s more than twice the pace that jobs were added during the “jobless recovery” of 2002 (Exhibit 2). Most encouraging is that employment gains are widespread across industries with only information, financial services, three manufacturing components, a couple retailing components, and state and local government still declining. Leading the way with increases in staffing levels include health care, professional & business services, leisure & hospitality, some retail components (including clothing, building materials, and wholesaling), and transportation and warehousing. Job growth for the remainder of this year will not be fast enough to offset the rapid declines experienced in 2009, so the annual average for 2010 will still be negative (-1.9%). Next year will bring a modest gain of 1.2%, followed by gains in the 3.5%-4.5 range the following two years. Our forecast for 2010 shows personal income growth reentering positive territory. Quarterly data statewide shows personal income growth at a 4.4% annual rate in the first quarter. Compared to a year earlier, that’s 1.0% higher. We are forecasting growth of a little over 2% for all of 2010 on an annual average basis, then twice that rate in 2011. Exhibit 2: More Than Twice the Pace of the Jobless Recovery of 2002 Nonfarm Jobs, Arizona seasonally adjusted thousands percent change 2700 Job growth for the remainder of this year will not be fast enough to offset the 10 annual rate (m/m), smoothed 2600 5 2500 0 2400 rapid declines experienced in 2009, 2300 -5 so the annual average for 2010 will still be negative (‐1.9%). number (left) 2200 -10 2100 2000 2 98 00 02 04 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 06 08 10 -15 October, 2010— Fall Issue Exhibit 3: Projections to 2040, Arizona Arizona’s growth will 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population (000s) 5,167 6,676 8,439 10,442 12,660 Nonfarm Jobs (000s) 2,243 2,381 3,301 4,068 4,948 136 222 420 727 1,222 we show Arizona’s 333 population topping Personal Income ($bil) Retail Sales ($bil) 54 73 141 218 return and once again rank amongst the leading states…. 12.6 million in the year 2040. It’s as if we have hiked to Phantom Ranch at the bottom of the Grand Canyon and have just started the long climb back up to the rim. It’s a long slow slog back up, but fortunately, the journey has begun. It will be 2013 or early 2014 before all the damage suffered during the recession is repaired; it’s a long way back up to the Rim. Recent data show that good progress is being made – and we expect that to continue even though some momentum will likely be lost in the second half. Detailed forecasts for Arizona are presented in the adjoining table. Long-Term Outlook The recent recession wiped out a decade’s worth of progress, but Arizona’s growth will return and once again rank amongst the leading states. In our annual update of our 30year projections, we show Arizona’s population topping 12.6 million in the year 2040. That’s virtually unchanged from last year’s projections. By 2040, nearly six million more people will call Arizona home than live here today. By nearly doubling, Arizona may well become the seventh largest state in the U.S., trailing only California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Projections for each 10-year interval for selected aggregate measures are presented above in Exhibit 3. Highlights of the 30-year Forecast Include the Following:    Over 2.5 million new jobs will be created in Arizona over the next three decades, boosting the total to 4.9 million. Per capita personal income relative to the nation will continue its downward slide from 84% today to nearer 77% thirty years from now. This ratio peaked at 95% in 1971. Per capita income is an aggregate measure comprised of demographics (age structure), wage levels, industry mix, and labor force participation rates. The downward trend keeps Arizona near the bottom of all states on this measure. Arizona’s employment to population ratio plunged during the current recession and will remain well below its peak established in 2000 (43.4%) and after dipping below 35.5% next year, finishes in 2040 at 39.0%. Arizona’s ratio consistently runs 4-5 points lower than nationwide (Exhibit 4). Exhibit 4: Damage Will Require Time to Repair Employment to Population Ratio 0.50 US 0.45 0.40 AZ 0.35 0.30 0.25 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 0.20 Arizona’s Economy Exhibit 5: Migration Rebounds to Trend-Line thousands Highlights of the 30-year Forecast , Cont... Annual Net Migration, Arizona  As the population continues to age, an increasing share of personal income will come from transfer payments, of which social security is the largest component. The share will rise from 21% today to 27.5% by 2040. Per capita transfers in Arizona however remain relatively steady at 95-96% of the corresponding nationwide measure, so Arizona is simply mirroring national trends.  Retail sales relative to income will continue to fall, dropping to only 18.5% from nearly 45% in the mid1960s. An aging population that spends more on services (especially health care) and a smaller portion on goods accounts for the drop. This has serious implications for a tax system heavily reliant on retail sales.  Migration flows will continue to account for the lion’s share of population growth. On average, natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for one third while net migration provides the remainder. The latter varies significantly, of course, over the business cycle. In 2009, at the depths of the recession and with mobility rates at a 60-year low, migration flows dropped below the number added by natural increase. By 2014 net migration will rebound and exceed 120,000 annually while natural increase will add 60,000 new residents.  The annual number of net migrants continues its upward trend to reach nearly 160,000 per year in 2040, roughly the same as in 2005. As a percent of the standing population, net migration falls from 2.8% in 2005 to 1.3% in 2040 (Exhibit 5).  Manufacturing, government, utilities, retail trade and mining will represent smaller shares of total jobs 30 years from now. Manufacturing’s share will decline from 6.3% to 3.9%, government from 17.3% to 13.6%, utilities from 0.5% to 0.3%, and retail trade from 12.4% to 11.2%. Mining jobs will all but disappear.  Sectors that will gain the largest shares are professional and business services (from 14.3% to 17.4%), health care & social assistance (from 12.1% to 14.4%), and financial services (from 6.9% to 8.3%).  In our “high” scenario, Arizona’s population reaches 13.9 million in 2040. In the “low” scenario, it is 11.7 million, compared to 12.6 million in the “most likely” scenario. Pennsylvania, the sixth largest state, today has 12.5 million (Exhibit 6).  Today, Arizona’s 6.7 million population ranks 13th, just ahead of Washington and Massachusetts. In thirty years, Arizona will overtake Virginia, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio to become the seventh largest state. percent 200 5 number (left) number (left) 150 4 100 3 50 2 0 1 As a percent of population (right) As a percent of population (right) -50 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 Exhibit 6: Six Million Additional Residents in 30 years Population, AZ Alternative Scenarios 14 12 10 8 6 Base (12.6 Mil) Low (11.7 Mil) High (13.9 Mil) 4 2 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 4 0 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue  The range for 2040 metro Phoenix population is 9.3 to 9.9 million. Metro Tucson’s range is 1.6 to 1.8 million people. The “Sun Corridor” megapolitan population (both metros -- three counties combined) ranges from 10.9 to 11.7 million.  By 2040, 74% of Arizona’s population will reside in the Phoenix metro area (Maricopa and Pinal counties). Metro Tucson (Pima County) will account for 13.6%. Today, the shares are 66.3% and 15.5%, respectively. Arizona has been the second-fastest growing state over the past several decades, and is expected to continue riding the crest for at least the next few decades. Over the next 30 years, Arizona will add six million residents, nearly doubling in size. We can only guess what Arizona will be like, but it’s clear that a great deal of change lies ahead. Much remains to be determined. Will Arizona be a leader in the industries of the future, or become an economic backwater? Will per capita personal income relative to the U.S. continue on its downward trajectory of the past 30 years? Or will the slide be arrested? Either way, Arizona will be near the bottom of all states on this measure of economic wellbeing. Today (2009 data) Mississippi is at 76.9% followed by Utah (78.9%), Idaho (80.8%), South Carolina (81.2%), Kentucky (81.5%), Arkansas (81.6%), West Virginia (82.3%), and Arizona (84.2%). Will Arizona continue to be marketed as the low cost leader? Will it become an exclusive place to live, or become the Ellis Island of the Southwest? Only time will tell. Latest Metropolitan Personal Income Estimates Show Recession Severity On August 9, 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released annual estimates of personal income for metropolitan areas for the year 2009. Prior year estimates remained unchanged, see Table 1. The 2009 estimates of personal income reflect the severity of the recession. Of Arizona’s six metro areas, only two metros (Flagstaff and Yuma) registered growth, but only two fared worse than national averages. In the Phoenix and Prescott metro areas, total dollar personal income declined by 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively during 2009. In per capita terms, incomes are still highest in metro Phoenix, followed closely by Flagstaff. Of the nation’s 366 metro areas, Phoenix and Flagstaff fall into the low-third quintile, Tucson into the high-fourth quintile, while Prescott, Yuma, and Lake Havasu City-Kingman rank near the bottom. Table 1: Personal Income Estimates Personal Income, Arizona Metropolitan Areas Percent change 2008 Metropolitan Portion of U.S. 2009 p 2009 p 2008 10,684,318 10,488,977 2.7 -1.8 Flagstaff, AZ 4,409 4,429 3.5 0.5 Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ 5,124 5,035 2.4 -1.7 155,014 149,611 1.2 -3.5 6,450 6,228 1.7 -3.4 34,393 33,930 3.9 -1.3 4,840 5,022 3.3 3.8 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Prescott, AZ Tucson, AZ Yuma, AZ Per Capita Personal Income, Arizona Metropolitan Areas U.S. Rank Area 2008 2009 p 2009 p Percent change 2009 p 2008 Metropolitan Portion of U.S. 41,930 40,757 ... 1.6 -2.8 Flagstaff, AZ 34,330 34,111 199 2.7 -0.6 Lake Havasu CityKingman, AZ 26,197 25,841 359 2.5 -1.4 Phoenix-MesaGlendale, AZ 36,156 34,282 190 -1.4 -5.2 Prescott, AZ 30,011 28,877 339 0.3 -3.8 Tucson, AZ 34,058 33,259 221 2.5 -2.3 Yuma, AZ 25,041 25,496 360 1.1 1.8 P preliminary estimates Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 Arizona’s Economy Costs and Contributions of the "Border Effect." Assessing the economic effects of Arizona's location along the international border with Mexico. Increasingly, attention has shifted to that other aspect of "bridging the border:" the flow of people. Mexican migrant workers have historically been an important part of Arizona’s economy as miners, ranchers and agricultural workers. NAFTA provides no provisions for cross‐ border flow of people; the trade agreement is strictly focused on flow of goods, money and services between member countries. 6 By Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D., Senior Regional Scientist July 26, 2010 Assessing the “Border Effect" Only a few things might be more complex than trying to assess costs and contributions to Arizona that are associated with its location along the international border with Mexico. The mere complexity is one reason for the lack of a comprehensive study despite a voluminous literature on various aspects of the U.S.Mexico border, and more specifically on the Arizona-Sonora region1. Most of the economic literature is focused on contributions of the border location for Arizona’s export activity; indeed, Mexico has been the number one foreign market for Arizona’s goods and services2. Also, the proximity to Mexico has provided an advantage to Arizona’s businesses to engage in a production sharing model known as the maquiladora industry, which utilizes lower labor costs in Mexico. Arizona’s border location also has contributed to developing of Nogales, San Luis and Douglas into a major gateway for Mexican fresh produce shipped to U.S. and Canadian markets. “Bridging the border” in terms of cross-border flow of goods and services is a well-documented, important, and firmly incorporated component of Arizona’s economic development strategy3. Increasingly, attention has shifted to that other aspect of "bridging the border:" the flow of people. Mexican migrant workers have historically been an important part of Arizona’s economy as miners, ranchers and agricultural workers. Also, Mexican residents have traditionally crossed the border in large numbers for shopping in Arizona’s border communities4. After the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the northbound flow of Mexican migrant workers substantially increased. NAFTA provides no provisions for cross-border flow of people; the trade agreement is strictly focused on flow of goods, money and services between member countries. According to the 2006-08 American Community Survey, Arizona was home to 617,526 immigrants from Mexico amounting to 9.7 percent of Arizona’s total population. Mexican immigrants are the largest single group among the foreign-born population in Arizona, accounting for 65.3 percent. Among Mexican immigrants, about 20 percent have been naturalized, while the majority of them - a full 80 percent --are non-citizens (including unauthorized immigrants). Key pieces of a large puzzle The purpose of this article is to summarize several existing pieces of information on various aspects of costs and contributions to Arizona that are associated with its proximity, and economic and demographic ties with Mexico. A so-called “meta analysis” has been applied that combines results from different studies, which even if they were produced by different methodologies and at different times, still help in creating a more comprehensive picture than each study does separately. More importantly, by bringing costs and contributions on the same page, it is easier to get a more balanced view of a net result. The estimates in this article are based on three recent studies. The 2008 study Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts5 pro- Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue vides the most comprehensive analysis of costs and contributions of all foreign-born population to Arizona’s economy. Using data from the U.S. Census 2000 and the 2006-08 American Community Survey, it was possible to estimate shares of fiscal costs and economic contributions associated with Mexican immigrants based on their shares of the naturalized and non-citizen immigrant population. The 2007 study Undocumented Immigrants in U.S.–Mexico Border Counties: The Costs of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice Services6 provides cost estimates specifically for Arizona’s border counties – Yuma, Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise. We used these estimates and assumed that 99 percent of all undocumented immigrants in Arizona border counties are Mexican nationals. Estimates of cost per capita in Pima County were used to project similar costs for Maricopa County. The third study, Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts 2007-087, provides estimates of the contribution of Mexican residents who legally cross the border for shopping, business or work in Arizona. The original estimates from the two later studies, which provide estimates for 2006 and 2007-08, respectively, were deflated to 2004 for compatibility with the first study. Fiscal costs associated with immigrants from Mexico Among the most frequently raised questions in debates about immigrants from Mexico are those associated with real or perceived costs of health care, law enforcement, and education for immigrant children. Table 1 shows an estimated cost of $1.1 billion in 2004, and details the contribution of each category. Health care Health care costs consist of two major categories: hospital uncompensated costs, and costs incurred to Arizona’s public health care system through the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS). According to Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, all immigrants in Arizona (i.e., all foreign-born population) accounted for $149.3 million in uncompensated hospital care costs, and another $642.0 million in AHCCCS costs, in 2004. Based on the share of Mexican immigrants in naturalized and non-citizen immigrant groups, we estimated that Mexican immigrants (including unauthorized immigrants) accounted for $110.0 million in hospital uncompensated costs, and an additional $443.2 million in AHCCCS costs. The dollar amount of costs attributable to Mexican immigrants represented 73.7 percent of the Among the most frequently raised questions in debates about immigrants from Mexico are those associated with real or perceived costs of health care, law enforcement, and education for immigrant children. Table 1: Summary of Fiscal Costs to Arizona Associated with Mexican Immigrants (in 2004 dollars). Cost Category Cost Due To All Cost Due To MX Foreign-Born Immigrants ($ millions) ($ millions) MX Immigrants' Share of Costs (%) Education (ELL) 544.1 415.4 76.3 Hospital Uncompensated Care Costs 149.3 110.0 73.7 AHCCCS Costs 642.0 443.2 69.0 Cost of Inmates 91.0 68.9 75.7 Cost of Undocumented Immigrants 87.4 86.5 99.0 1,513.8 1,124.1 74.4 Total Fiscal Costs Sources: Judith Gans, "Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts," The University of Arizona Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2008. Tanis J. Salant, Undocumented Immigrants in U.S.-Mexico Border Counties: The Costs of Enforcement and Criminal Justice Services. The University of Arizona School of Public Administration and Policy, 2007. Report prepared for the United States/Mexico Border Counties Coalition. U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3): Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates: Place of Birth by Citizen Status; Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Table 2: Summary of Economic Contributions to Arizona from "Border Effect" (in 2004 dollars). Economic Activity Immigrants' Consumption Contribution of All ForeignBorn ( $ millions) Contribution MX of MX ImmiMexican Immigrants grants' Visitors ( $ millions) Share (%) ( $ millions) 10,247.0 6,132.3 59.8 2,404.2 Mexican Visitors' Spending Immigrants' Output as Workforce* 33,522.0 23,066.2 68.8 Total Economic Contribution 43,769.0 29,198.5 66.7 2,404.2 *Excluding consumption Sources: Judith Gans, “Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts,” The University of Arizona Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2008. Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08. The University of Arizona Eller College of Management, 2008, prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism. U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3): Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates: Place of Birth by Citizen Status; Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. total health care costs associated with all immigrants in Arizona.8 Cost of immigrants’ children education According to Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, English Language Learner (ELL) enrollment was used as a measure of the impacts of immigrants’ children in Arizona’s public schools. The total cost of all immigrants’ children in 2004 was estimated at $544.1 million. Based on the share of Mexican immigrants among noncitizen foreign-born population, we estimated that 76.3 percent or $415.4 million was associated with children of Mexican immigrants. Law enforcement costs In 2004, according to Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, the total cost to Arizona of immigrant 8 inmates was $91.0 million, of which $89.1 million was for non-citizens. Based on the share of Mexican immigrants in naturalized and non-citizen population groups, we estimated that 75.7 percent or $68.9 million was associated with incarceration of immigrants from Mexico. In addition to the above costs incurred through the Arizona Department of Corrections, there are also costs incurred by local police and sheriff’s departments in the course of providing for public safety. According to Undocumented Immigrants in U.S.–Mexico Border Counties: The Costs of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice Services, Arizona’s four border counties incurred an estimated $26.6 million in costs for law enforcement and criminal justice services in association with undocumented immigrants, in 2006. Using Pima County average cost of $15.83 per capita, we estimat- Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona ed comparable costs of $61.1 million in Maricopa County and $4.7 million in Pinal County; thus, we estimated that the total costs associated with undocumented immigrants in Arizona were $93.3 million. Assuming that Mexican nationals accounted for 99 percent of all undocumented immigrants, we estimated that their share of cost amounted to $92.3 million in 2006. After an adjustment for inflation, these costs amounted to $86.5 million in 2004 dollars, as shown in Table 1. Thus, the total estimated costs of law enforcement (including criminal justice services) associated with immigrants from Mexico were $155.4 million.9 Summary of fiscal costs Combined, the measurable fiscal costs associated with Mexican immigrants in Arizona -- comprised of immigrants’ children education, hospital uncompensated care October, 2010— Fall Issue costs, AHCCCS costs, costs of inmates, and cost of undocumented immigrants -- added up to a total of $1.1 billion in 2004. Economic contributions associated with immigrants from Mexico As part of the overall immigrant population in Arizona, Mexican immigrants contribute to Arizona’s economy in two basic ways: as workers and consumers. Mexican immigrants in Arizona’s workforce: contribution to economic output With a 14 percent share of the workforce, immigrants play an important role in Arizona’s economy. According to Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, all immigrants generated an output of $43.8 billion in 2004. Based on their share of naturalized and nonnaturalized immigrant population, we estimated that immigrant workforce from Mexico generated $29.2 billion in total output to Arizona’s economy.10 This accounted for 66.7 percent of the total output generated by all immigrant workforce in Arizona, in 2004. Buying power of Mexican households in Arizona: contribution as consumers The concept of buying power refers to after-tax disposable income available to households for spending on goods and services. In Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts immigrant households’ income was also adjusted to account for savings and remittances sent back to the home country. The study estimated that as a result of immigrants’ consumption, a direct output in goods and services (i.e., sales) generated in Arizona’s economy was $10.2 billion in 2004. Based on Mexican immigrants’ shares of naturalized and non-citizen immigrants, we estimated that $6.1 billion or 59.8 percent was contributed by Mexican immigrants. Economic impact of Mexican visitors’ spending In 2007-08, Mexican residents made more than 24 million visits to Arizona for reasons of shopping, visiting friends and relatives, business, recreation, and work. According to Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, Mexican visitors spent di- rectly an estimated $2.7 billion in Arizona’s department stores, grocery stores, restaurants, gas stations, hotels, and casinos during 200708. In 2004 dollars, this translates to $2.4 billion. Summary of economic contributions Table 2 summarizes contributions to Arizona’s economy that are linked to the “border effect.” To avoid double counting, we subtracted immigrants’ spending from the total output as workers, since labor income is, by definition, a part of the total output.11 With this adjustment, Mexican immigrants in Arizona contributed an estimated $29.2 billion in economic activity as workers and consumers. This represented 66.7 percent of the total contribution by all immigrants in Arizona. Adding the impact of spending by Mexican visitors, the total economic contributions associated with the “border effect” was $31.1 billion, in 2004. The total measurable costs of Mexican immigrants in Arizona are estimated at $1.1 billion or $177 per capita in 2004. The balance sheet Table 3 summarizes fiscal costs and economic contributions associated with Mexican immigrants in Arizona, including the contribution of Mexican visitors. All data are in 2004 dollars. The table also shows average costs and contributions per capita. The total measurable costs of Mexican immigrants in Arizona are estimated at $1.1 billion or $177 per capita in 2004. These include $65 per capita for education of immigrant children, $17 per capita for hospital uncompensated care costs, $70 per capita for AHCCCS costs, $11 per capita for incarceration, and an additional $14 per capita for law enforcement and criminal justice services. In the same year, as consumers, Mexican immigrants in Arizona accounted for $6.1 billion of output in goods and services, which comes to an average contribution of $967 in output per capita. The major contribution of Mexican immigrants comes through their participation in Arizona’s workforce. As workers, Mexican immigrants accounted for an estimated $23.1 billion in output of goods and services (less income spent as consumers), or $3,636 in output per capita. In the same year, as consumers, Mexican immigrants in Arizona accounted for $6.1 billion of output in goods and services, which comes to an average contribution of $967 in output per capita. As workers, Mexican immigrants accounted for an estimated $23.1 billion in output of goods and services (less income spent as consumers), or $3,636 in output per capita. Adding the impact of spending by Mexican www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 Arizona’s Economy visitors, the total economic contribution increases to $31.6 billion or $4,982 per capita (in 2004 dollars). As shown in Table 3, economic contributions outweigh the fiscal costs to Arizona’s tax payers by multiple times. Geographic distribution of fiscal costs and economic contributions Over the last few decades, Maricopa and Pima counties have been the primary destinations for immigrants from Mexico. According to the American Community Survey, 82 percent of all Table 3: Summary of Costs and Contributions to Arizona’s Economy from "Border Effect." All figures in dollars (millions, except per capita). Summary of Costs Cost Categories Costs ($ millions) Per Capita $ Education (ELL) 415.4 65 Hospital Uncompensated Care Costs 110.0 17 AHCCCS Costs 443.2 70 Cost of Inmates 68.9 11 Cost of Undocumented Immigrants 86.5 14 1,124.1 177 Contributions ($millions) Per Capita $ Mexican Immigrants as Consumers* 6,132.3 967 Mexican Visitors' Spending in Arizona** 2,404.2 379 Mexican immigrants as workers** 23,066.2 3,636 SUM OF CONTRIBUTIONS 31,602.7 4,982 SUM OF COSTS Summary of Contributions Contribution Categories *Includes $266.4 million in direct tax revenues to state and local governments. **Includes $167.4 million in direct tax revenues to state and local governments. ***Includes $1.3 billion in direct tax revenues to state and local governments. Sources: Judith Gans, "Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts," The University of Arizona Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2008. Tanis J. Salant, Undocumented Immigrants in U.S.-Mexico Border Counties: The Costs of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice Services. The University of Arizona School of Public Administration and Policy, 2007. Report prepared for the United States/Mexico Border Counties Coalition. Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08. The University of Arizona Eller College of Management, 2008, prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism. 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates: Place of Birth by Citizen Status; Place of Birth for ForeignBorn Population. 10 Mexican immigrants lived in Maricopa and Pima counties. Border counties of Yuma, Santa Cruz and Cochise accounted together for 11.5 percent, and the fast growing Pinal County, located between Maricopa and Pima, accounted for 3.5 percent. The remaining 3.5 percent of Mexican immigrants lived elsewhere in Arizona outside the two largest metropolitan areas of Phoenix and Tucson (Maricopa and Pima County) and counties adjacent to the border (Table 4). Therefore, it is not surprising that both the fiscal costs and economic contributions associated with Mexican immigrants are disproportionately distributed across Arizona counties. Table 5 (see page 12) provides estimates of fiscal costs and economic contributions for Maricopa and Pima counties for which 200608 American Community Survey provides breakdown of immigrants from Mexico by citizenship (naturalized immigrants and noncitizen immigrants). Estimates by county are obtained as a sum of costs/contributions of naturalized and non-citizen immigrants. The “rest of Arizona” is estimated as the difference between the estimated totals for Arizona minus combined estimates for Maricopa and Pima counties. For data on Mexican visitors’ spending, we used original estimates from Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts 2007-08 for Arizona’s total, Maricopa and Pima counties; the original estimates for Yuma, Santa Cruz and Cochise are incorporated in the “Rest of Arizona.” Maricopa County has attracted the largest number of Mexican immigrants (68.6 percent of Arizona’s total), and the largest number of non-citizen Mexican immigrants (71.6 percent of non-citizen Mexican immigrants in Arizona). The County bears the highest cost per capita of $204 compared to Arizona’s average of $177 per capita, but it also reaps largest contributions per capita of $5,282. Although closer to the border but with a smaller economy than Maricopa’s, Pima County attracted 13.1 percent of Arizona’s Mexican immigrants. Pima County has a relatively larger share on naturalized Mexican immigrants (17.7 percent of Arizona’s total) than noncitizen immigrants (12.0 percent of Arizona’s total). With $144 per capita Pima County has lower costs than Arizona’s average, but the contributions of $4,808 per capita are also lower than Arizona’s average of $4,982. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Table 4: Immigrants from Mexico in Arizona, by County, 2006-08. Born in Mexico Born in Mexico Born in Mexico Born in Mexico Born in Mexico (All) (Naturalized) (Non‐citizens) (All %) (Naturalized %) Born in Mexico (Non‐citizens %) 422,795 67,724 355,071 68.5 55.7 71.6 Pima 81,010 21,587 59,423 13.1 17.7 12.0 Yuma 41,729 Pinal 21,617 4.0 3.4 Santa Cruz 16,839 2.7 Cochise 12,182 2.0 Rest of Arizona* 21,353 27,504 64,600 3.5 22.6 13.0 617,526 121,673 495,853 100.0 100.0 100.0 Maricopa Arizona Total 6.8 4,858 16,759 3.5 *Includes Yuma, Cochise and Santa Cruz except in the first column. Sources: For Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties, and Arizona total: data set is 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates. Figures for other AZ counties were estimated by author based on % shares in 2000, based on: U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data, Place of Birth for ForeignBorn Population. "Rest of Arizona" for naturalized and non-citizens includes Yuma, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Average costs of $130 per capita for the rest of Arizona (mainly the three border counties – Yuma, Santa Cruz and Cochise) are lower than Arizona’s average; so are the contributions of $4,318 per capita in comparison with Arizona’s average. In order to better assess whether a county bears relatively larger costs or reaps larger contributions in comparison with other counties in Arizona, a ratio of contributions over costs has been calculated (bottom row in Table 5). These ratios suggest that Maricopa County bears relatively larger share of fiscal costs compared to total contribution to its economy. Conclusions While there is a host of other “costs” and “contributions” to Arizona’s economy emanating from its border location, this article has focused on those that are reasonably measurable. From an economic perspective, the results of this analysis clearly demonstrate positive economic contributions to Arizona from its cross-border ties with neighboring Mexico. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Arizona’s Economy Table 5: “Border Effect:” Fiscal Costs and Economic Contributions to Arizona’s Economy by County, 2004. (Except for per capita estimates, all dollar figures are in millions). Costs: Arizona ($ millions) Maricopa Pima Rest of Arizona ($ millions) ($ millions) ( $ millions) Education (ELL) 415.4 297.4 49.8 68.2 Hospital Uncompensated Care Costs 110.0 77.7 13.6 18.7 AHCCCS Costs 443.2 304.8 57.7 80.8 Cost of Inmates 68.9 49.2 8.3 11.4 Cost of Undocumented Immigrants 86.5 58.7 14.0 13.8 1,124.1 787.9 143.3 192.8 100.0 70.1 12.8 17.2 177 204 144 130 SUM of Costs ($ millions) Share of AZ Total Costs (%) Cost Per Capita ($) Contributions:* Arizona ($ millions) Maricopa Pima Rest of Arizona ($ millions) ($ millions) ( $ millions) 6,132.3 3,938.0 898.5 1,295.8 100.0 64.2 14.7 21.1 2,404.2 620.7 873.1 910.4 100.0 25.8 36.3 37.9 8,536.6 4,558.7 1,771.7 2,206.1 100.0 53.4 20.8 25.8 23,066.2 15,840.3 3,008.7 4,217.2 100.0 68.7 13.0 18.3 31,602.7 20,399.1 4,780.3 6,423.3 % Share of AZ's Total Benefits 100.0 64.5 15.1 20.3 Contributions Per Capita ($) 4,982 5,282 4,808 4,318 28 26 33 33 Mexican Immigrants as Consumers % Share of Immigrants' Consumption Mexican Visitors' Spending in Arizona % Share of Visitors' Spending SUM OF CONSUMER SPENDING % Share of Total Consumption Mexican Immigrants as Workers % Share of AZ's MX Worker's Output SUM OF BENEFITS ($) Ratio of Contributions/Costs *All contributions include tax revenues to state and local governments. Sources: Judith Gans, Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, The University of Arizona Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2008. Tanis J. Salant, Undocumented Immigrants in U.S.-Mexico Border Counties: The Costs of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice Services. The University of Arizona School of Public Administration and Policy, 2007. Report prepared for the United States/Mexico Border Counties Coalition. Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08. The University of Arizona Eller College of Management, 2008, prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism. U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3): Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates: Place of Birth by Citizen Status; Place of Birth for Foreign-Born Population. 12 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue References 1. See for example Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Jaewon Lim, Arizona-Sonora Region: Economic Indicators and Regional Initiatives. University of Arizona Eller College of Management and Economic Development, 2009. Prepared for the Arizona-Mexico Commission. Population estimates for Arizona, its counties and other U.S. States are by the U.S. Census Bureau. 2. Check EBR’s web site for articles on Arizona’s trade with Mexico. 3. See for example the Strategic Economic Development Vision for the Arizona-Sonora Region championed by the Arizona-Mexico Commission and Comisión Sonora-Arizona. 4. Since 1978, The University of Arizona's Economic and Business Research Center has conducted four studies of impacts on Arizona’s economy. 5. Judith Gans, Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts. The University of Arizona, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy: 2008. 6. Tanis J. Salant (Principal Investigator), Undocumented Immigrants in U.S. –Mexico Border Counties – The Costs of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice Service. The University of Arizona School of Public Administration and Policy, 2007. Report prepared for the United States -Mexico Border Counties Coalition. 7. Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney. Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts. The University of Arizona, Eller College of Management, 2008. Report prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism. 8. Estimates of costs associated with Mexican immigrants were calculated by the author based on the share of Mexican immigrants in (a) naturalized immigrants and (b) non-citizen immigrants (including both legal and unauthorized immigrants). Based on 2000 U.S. Census of Population, Mexican immigrants accounted for 47.9 percent of all foreign-born naturalized citizens and 76.3 percent of non-citizen foreign-born. 9. Reimbursement by federal government is not included in these estimates. 10. This figure includes labor income and tax revenues to state and local governments. The portion of labor income that was spent by Mexican immigrants as consumers is excluded from the output generated by Mexican immigrants as workers to avoid double counting in Table 2. 11. According to IMPLAN input-output model used in Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts. For historical data and additional data series and analysis, subscribe to the EBR Database Online. The Economic and Business Research Center has maintained economic indicators on the State of Arizona since 1949. The EBR Database Online builds upon this large and up‐to‐date database to provide economic and socio‐demographic data series in simple, easy to generate reports online. To subscribe visit: http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 Forecast Tables Arizona Arizona’s Economy 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 221235.4 227139.3 238434.5 253477.3 273165.4 1.7 2.7 5 6.3 7.8 33139.9 33394.8 34306.4 35601.1 37432.2 0.5 0.8 2.7 3.8 5.1 71261.2 75653.5 82306.6 88782.5 95457.5 2.7 6.2 8.8 7.9 7.5 11449.4 11812 12393.4 13018.5 13616.6 1.1 3.2 4.9 5 4.6 43837.7 46734.2 51371.3 55867.5 60677.1 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change 1.1 6.6 9.9 8.8 8.6 9220.5 9732.3 10362.6 11030.4 11774.2 3.8 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.7 7034.8 7663.1 8481.8 9184 9722.8 15.3 8.9 10.7 8.3 5.9 2390.1 2398.7 2476.9 2582.3 2697.2 -1.5 0.4 3.3 4.3 4.4 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.2 -0.2 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change 1.8 0.7 -0.8 -0.6 103.2 84.6 91 107.5 131 % change -20.1 -18 7.5 18.2 21.8 Manufacturing 149.7 155.6 161.6 166.8 170.2 % change -2.2 3.9 3.8 3.2 2.1 478.7 481.8 496 514.2 534.7 -0.2 0.6 3 3.7 4 37.1 37.9 40.4 41.8 42.2 -5.4 2.2 6.5 3.7 0.8 345.9 344.3 356.6 375.6 396.9 0 -0.4 3.6 5.3 5.7 253.7 258.4 266.5 276.4 286.5 -0.7 1.9 3.1 3.7 3.7 411.7 405.7 407.8 415.2 424.5 -2.6 -1.5 0.5 1.8 2.2 6675.8 6801.6 6950.2 7119.9 7297.6 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 Construction Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Unemployment Rate, percent Residential Permits (units) 9.4 9.2 8.4 7.7 7.1 12855.8 22641.4 33639.5 46155.1 54138.5 % change -9.9 76.1 48.6 37.2 17.3 Single family 11615.6 19796.1 30373.5 41459.1 47050.8 % change -9.5 70.4 53.4 36.5 13.5 Multi‐family 1240.2 2845.3 3266 4696 7087.7 % change Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Civilian Nonag Wage Rate % change 14 -13.6 129.4 14.8 43.8 50.9 2622.8 2691.6 2822.9 2970.9 3071.4 -0.7 2.6 4.9 5.2 3.4 45868.3 46842.2 47876.5 49060.4 50375.5 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA 2009 2010 Forecast Tables 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 148914.1 154773.8 163236.4 175043.9 1.3 3.9 5.5 7.2 190225.9 8.7 33639 34225 35157 36626 38651 -0.1 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.5 49285.8 54223 59221.5 63328 67629.5 5 10 9.2 6.9 6.8 7498.3 7840.1 8212.4 8677.8 9156.7 9.9 4.6 4.7 5.7 5.5 30794.6 34441.2 38132.5 40911.6 43818.9 2.2 11.8 10.7 7.3 7.1 6462.1 6893.5 7348.5 7853.3 8424.7 4.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.3 4530.8 5048.3 5528.2 5885.3 6229.2 20.1 11.4 9.5 6.5 5.8 1685 1720.5 1786.8 1878.9 1979.6 -2.1 2.1 3.9 5.2 5.4 2.8 3 3.1 3.3 3.4 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction -6.3 6.8 3.5 6.1 3.5 77.3 69.2 79.5 100.8 123.9 % change -19.7 -10.4 15 26.8 22.9 Manufacturing 109.5 115.8 120.4 124.1 126.5 % change -3.9 5.7 4 3 2 402.3 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 354.5 361.3 373.8 387.6 % change -0.4 1.9 3.5 3.7 3.8 Information 27.4 28.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 % change -5.8 4.2 3.2 0.4 -0.8 269.7 280.1 287 303.5 324.8 -2.1 3.9 2.5 5.8 7 172.1 176.7 183.3 190.6 197.8 -1.1 2.7 3.7 4 3.8 233.6 230.1 233.9 240 246.9 -2.3 -1.5 1.6 2.6 2.9 4426.8 4522.3 4643.1 4779.3 4921.6 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.9 3 46524 Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) 10261 19271 31240 40773 % change 10.7 87.8 62.1 30.5 14.1 Single family 9003 16904 27842 36149 39962 % change 4.7 87.8 64.7 29.8 10.5 Multi‐family 1258 2367 3399 4624 6562 % change 86.6 88.2 43.6 36.1 41.9 1605.3 1654.3 1719.9 1781.2 1842.2 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change -1.9 3.1 4 3.6 3.4 2.82 3.05 3.21 3.3 3.38 22.4 8.1 5.3 2.8 2.3 50109.9 51148.6 52248.3 53497 55027.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.9 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Forecast Tables Tucson MSA Arizona’s Economy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 34856.2 36151.4 37809.3 40030.2 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.9 42952.7 7.3 33737 34400.8 35228.7 36491.7 38313.8 1.5 2 2.4 3.6 5 10940.8 11727.5 12535.2 13293.8 14275.8 4.7 7.2 6.9 6.1 7.4 1873.9 1955.8 2031.7 2119.7 2208.5 15.6 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.2 6520.1 7038.7 7600.8 8126.5 8876.5 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change -1.1 8 8 6.9 9.2 1426.1 1517.7 1618.8 1721.6 1829.1 4.6 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.2 1120.7 1215.3 1283.9 1326 1361.7 29 8.4 5.6 3.3 2.7 357.6 361.9 372.3 384.8 396.9 -1.1 1.2 2.9 3.4 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 -1.8 -2.1 -0.3 0.5 -1.3 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction 14.3 14.2 16.1 18.8 20.7 % change -13.9 -0.7 13.2 16.7 10.3 Manufacturing 24.9 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.5 % change -1.3 2.4 3 2.8 1.9 57 58 59.7 61.4 63.4 -1.6 1.7 2.8 3 3.3 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 -4.1 3.7 2.5 0.3 -0.2 47.3 46.5 47.5 49.5 51.6 0 -1.7 2.2 4.1 4.4 38.7 40 41.5 42.7 43.9 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change -0.1 3.5 3.5 3 2.8 Government 77.3 77.2 78 79 80 % change -2 -0.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1033.2 1050.9 1073.3 1097 1121.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 2262.1 3984.5 5922.2 6663.2 7307.1 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change 6.3 76.1 48.6 12.5 9.7 Single family 2070.4 3654.6 5493 6159.3 6593 % change 7.1 76.5 50.3 12.1 7 Multi‐family 191.7 329.9 429.2 503.9 714.1 % change Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change 16 -1.7 72.1 30.1 17.4 41.7 397.1 398.2 399.4 401.3 402.7 5.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 22.4 8.1 5.3 2.8 2.3 42596.1 43739.1 44716.6 45855.9 47210.4 1.5 2.7 2.2 2.5 3 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 3,157.10 3,174.60 3,163.10 3,173.90 3,181.00 0.7 0.3 2,860.80 2,886.10 2,864.80 2,863.30 2,862.00 0.5 -1.3 296.3 288.5 298.3 310.6 319 2.1 17.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 2.1 17 2,400.30 2,422.70 2,427.40 2,365.10 2,349.10 -0.3 -4.3 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 10.4 -12.7 Construction 110.6 113.2 114.7 114.5 114.2 -10.9 -23.4 Durable Goods Manufacturing 115.6 115.4 116.4 117.2 116.9 -2.6 -9.2 Fabricated Metal Products 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 -8.5 -16.7 Computer and Electronic Prod. 35.3 35.1 35.4 35.4 35.3 -4.1 -8.8 Aerospace Products and Parts 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 -2.6 -1.9 31.6 32.7 32.6 33 32.5 3.2 -3.9 Non‐Durable Goods Manufacturing Wholesale Trade 103 103.2 103.2 103 103.3 4.6 -2 297.3 298.7 296.8 296.3 296.5 1.1 -3.1 Utilities 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 -1.6 -2.3 Transportation and Warehousing 66.4 66.8 67.1 67.5 67.6 -0.7 -5.7 37 37.8 37.6 37.1 36.5 -6.9 -7 118.3 117.6 117.2 117.4 117.2 -2.7 -2.8 Retail Trade Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 43.8 44.3 44.3 43.8 44.2 -3.9 -6.9 340.2 345.3 341.1 342.7 346.2 1.8 -5.4 52.9 52.7 52.4 49.5 49 10.4 7.6 282.8 283.3 285.3 283.8 283.2 1.7 1.6 33.5 34.1 32.8 32 31.2 -3.7 -1.6 41.8 44.3 43.9 43.8 43.3 1.2 -7.7 186.6 188.6 187.8 182.3 177.4 2.2 -1.1 Other Services 90.5 92.7 93.3 91.9 93 -0.7 -5.1 Federal Government 57.7 60.6 70.8 63.1 62.2 9.5 5.6 367.8 368.3 366.8 322.5 310.7 -4.4 -3.8 State and Local Government Education 201.7 202.9 200.3 155.3 144.1 -4.3 -3.1 Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC & EBR 39.2 39.3 40 39.4 39.7 2.3 -1.5 Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC & EBR Construction 19.63 19.4 19.62 19.49 19.4 -1.5 1.8 Manufacturing 17.08 16.93 17.02 17.03 16.87 -0.7 0.9 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 16.27 16.43 16.24 16.26 15.87 2.7 5.1 Retail Trade 13.68 13.92 13.8 13.81 13.5 2 5 Wholesale Trade 23.12 23.42 22.79 23 22.43 4.8 7.1 Arizona monthly data continued next page… All sources and abbreviations on page 17. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17 Arizona’s Economy Arizona ‐ Monthly , continued... Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 6,433,261 6,057,603 6,131,624 5,824,516 ... 0.5 -2.3 3,889,162 3,617,831 3,690,260 3,572,613 ... 0.3 -4.1 Food, EBR 996,584 1,010,014 992,716 971,669 ... 1.7 -0.2 Restaurants & Bars 900,645 796,309 830,951 711,223 ... 0.5 -0.7 Gasoline, EBR 646,870 633,450 617,697 569,010 601,558 10 10 233,755 223,676 223,455 210,916 223,188 0.4 -1.3 Utilities 630,514 593,053 684,905 825,095 ... -7.8 0.1 Communications 272,553 296,831 272,987 267,221 ... 1.9 -2.2 Amusements 118,920 102,290 117,272 73,514 ... -18.2 -1.5 Rentals ‐ Personal Property 287,496 267,414 245,973 250,973 ... Contracting 689,242 719,508 742,552 787,275 ... -21.3 -36.4 Mining ‐ Metal, Oil & Gas 111,425 124,945 111,905 101,775 ... 42.1 109 Hotel/Motel 258,290 195,034 170,445 143,992 ... 9.8 -5.6 1,624 1,106 957 1,086 906 -54.7 -5.4 1,385 1,059 906 978 846 -49.3 6.5 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐4 Unit Structures 6 10 20 36 26 1,200.00 -6.1 233 37 31 72 34 -89.8 -58.5 4,135 3,974 3,731 3,585 3,526 11 44.4 3,454 3,346 3,130 2,988 2,916 10.7 45.2 5‐plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 78 51 55 41 63 61.5 28.7 Chapter 13 603 577 546 556 547 8.7 42.3 Arizona ‐ Quarterly 09II 09 III 09 IV 10 I % change vs. year ago for most recent: 10II quarter 4‐QTR average Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 6,583.70 6,604.20 6,621.50 6,640.60 6,663.60 1.2 1.3 12.2 11.3 11.1 10.8 12 -1.2 -13.4 Births 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.3 23.2 -1.1 -5.6 Deaths 11.2 11.5 11.3 11.5 11.1 -0.9 3.7 11.9 5.6 6.5 9.7 13.6 13.7 -19.9 218,590 216,270 217,249 219,273 220,652 0.9 -1 151,958 149,652 149,627 150,552 151,211 -0.5 -3.6 17,115 16,869 16,837 17,065 17,089 -0.2 -2.7 707 697 697 701 704 -0.5 -4.2 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 39,536 39,113 39,613 39,558 39,669 0.3 -5.3 Plus: Transfer Payments 43,504 43,677 44,150 45,527 46,158 6.1 12.8 Natural Increase Net Migrati on Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries 110,869 108,803 108,478 109,234 109,677 -1.1 -4.3 Other Labor Income EBR 25,236 24,982 24,974 25,068 25,066 -0.7 -1.2 Proprietor's Income 15,793 15,935 16,226 16,288 ... 2.1 -4.8 Farm -13 -52 -1 -56 ... 20 -133.2 15,805 15,988 16,227 16,344 ... 2 -4.1 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 33,202 32,747 32,810 33,020 33,113 -0.3 -2.3 Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 44,806 44,544 44,576 44,922 ... 1.4 1.1 Nonfarm 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Travel and Tourism ‐ Monthly Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. avg. Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona 1,276,323 1,467,776 1,840,076 2,114,380 2,253,553 2.6 4.6 Historical 122,350 127,013 139,731 133,227 137,006 13.6 -0.5 Scenic 472,843 550,217 587,458 777,071 873,175 -0.1 -0.5 Water Based Recreation 681,130 790,546 1,112,887 1,204,082 1,243,372 3.4 8.6 476,043 308,023 237,000 145,150 159,139 10.3 -6.8 66,258 28,352 22,243 23,244 24,644 19.1 0.2 356,386 239,724 164,754 81,578 93,515 17.5 -7.6 53,399 39,947 50,003 40,328 40,980 -6.7 -9.3 Passengers 1,407,291 1,276,113 1,345,352 1,284,438 1,305,541 -13.9 -11.1 Pedestrians 714,607 617,967 686,480 528,141 599,288 -2.5 -10.9 Vehicles 634,697 582,402 604,902 579,727 577,986 -9.6 -7.6 Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP Inflation and Prices ‐ Monthly Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. avg. Consumer Price Index (1982‐1984=100) BLS U.S. ‐ All Urban 217.6 218 218.2 218 218 1.2 1.3 U.S. ‐ Wage Earners 213.5 214 214.1 213.8 213.9 1.6 1.6 Inflation and Prices ‐ Quarterly 09II 09 III 09 IV 10 I % change vs. year ago for most recent: 10II quarter 4 –QTR avg. Consumer Price index (1982‐84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) 218.8 219.9 219.8 220.3 221.3 1.1 0.6 U.S. ‐ All Urban Consumers 214.3 215.7 216.2 217 218.1 1.8 1 U.S. ‐ Urban Wage Earners 209.2 211 211.8 212.9 214 2.3 1.2 Gross Domestic Product 109.6 109.8 109.7 110 110.5 0.8 0.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 108.8 109.6 110.3 110.9 110.9 1.9 1.3 Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOC: Arizona Department of Commerce ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transporta on ARMLS: Arizona Regional Mul ple Lis ng Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Sta s cs, U.S. Department of Labor Census C‐40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: Na onal Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor Interna onal Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority * All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 Arizona’s Economy Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 2,121.10 2,130.50 2,118.70 2,125.00 2,128.50 1.1 0 1,933.60 1,951.40 1,934.90 1,933.60 1,933.90 1.1 -1.5 187.5 179.1 183.8 191.4 194.6 0.9 18.4 8.8 8.9 9.2 8.7 8.8 0 18 1,701.80 1,718.70 1,720.60 1,677.60 1,665.60 0 -4.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 0 -16.7 Construction 83.9 86.3 87.4 86.8 86.6 -9 -23.1 Durable Goods 84.8 84.7 85.5 86.1 85.4 -2.7 -9.9 Computer and Electronic Prod. 32.6 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.7 -2.1 -7.6 Aerospace Products and Parts 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 -5.8 -5.2 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Non‐Durable Goods 24.1 25 24.9 24.9 24.7 0.8 -4.4 Wholesale Trade 86.3 86.7 86.7 86.6 87 4.6 -0.9 209.8 211.3 209.9 209.3 209.5 2 -2.9 Retail Trade Utilities 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 -1.1 -2.3 Transportation and Warehousing 52.2 52.3 52.7 53 53.3 0 -5.7 Information 27.2 27.9 28 27.6 27.2 -6.2 -8.3 101.5 101.2 100.8 100.5 100.7 -3 -3.7 32.7 32.9 33 32.6 33.2 -6.2 -9 270.6 275.4 271.6 273.9 276 2 -5.6 8.6 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services 41.1 41.1 41.1 39 38.4 8.8 Health Care and Social Assistance 188 188.4 189 188.1 187.9 1.9 1.7 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 25.5 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.5 0.9 -1.1 Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government 26.1 27.4 27 26.8 26.3 2.3 -8.2 128.1 129.8 129.3 124.3 121.4 1.8 -1.7 66.3 68.4 68.4 67.4 68.4 0.1 -5 22.8 24.3 30.5 25.3 24.8 7.4 3.5 219.4 218.7 218.4 189.6 179.8 -3.7 -3.9 119.7 119.5 118.5 90.1 81 -2.2 -2.6 4,407,090 4,122,374 4,170,852 3,914,264 ... 2 -2.9 2,721,724 2,523,493 2,584,274 2,466,448 ... 0.9 -4.1 Food, EBR 632,988 641,518 630,531 617,163 ... 9.9 -1.9 Restaurants & Bars 644,494 560,527 575,317 485,496 ... 0.1 -0.4 Gasoline, EBR 407,883 396,836 380,729 345,157 356,123 9.7 7.2 Contracting 466,688 478,978 502,293 507,563 ... -24.7 -37.9 Hotel/Motel 179,227 122,490 93,363 70,769 ... 8.6 -6.5 1,171 673 651 707 585 -53 -7.5 Single Family Units 999 638 616 668 549 -55.5 10.1 2‐4 Unit Structures 4 6 16 0 16 ... -30.9 168 29 19 39 20 100 -73.4 1,596,724 1,584,568 1,484,863 1,539,666 1,249,582 -21.6 9.7 8,969 9,261 8,049 8,173 7,101 -21.9 14 178,027 171,101 184,478 188,384 175,973 0.4 -5.5 ... 3.5 0.9 ... -1.7 -3.8 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA 3,584,403 3,305,001 3,268,611 3,303,007 Total Passengers 20 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of36,740 Arizona 40,106 37,988 38,089 Total Aircraft Movements October, 2010— Fall Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Quarterly 09II 09 III 09 IV 10 I % change vs. year ago for most recent 10II quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 4,354.50 4,370.90 4,395.00 4,414.80 4,414.80 1.4 1.7 10.1 10 9.9 9.7 9.6 -5.6 -6.5 Births 16.5 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.8 -4.6 -5.6 Deaths 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 -2.9 -4 7.1 6.4 14.2 10.2 -9.6 -234.2 -44.6 146,631 146,170 147,160 148,678 149,151 1.7 -1.6 108,621 107,795 108,228 108,678 108,657 0 -3.7 12,091 12,011 12,058 12,114 12,116 0.2 -3 -6.1 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence -181 -185 -186 -189 -191 -5.5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 25,605 25,336 25,522 25,753 25,779 0.7 -4.7 Plus: Transfer Payments 24,676 25,234 25,655 26,549 27,021 9.5 11.2 33,673 33,441 33,484 33,677 33,784 0.3 -3.2 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Apache County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jul 10 22,900 22,975 23,100 23,650 23,850 -2 19,225 19,525 19,625 19,725 19,750 -3.7 4.1 1.9 3,675 3,450 3,475 3,925 4,100 7.2 18.4 16 15 15 16.6 17.2 9.3 14 19,500 19,875 20,150 19,675 19,675 -4.4 -0.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 6,850 6,950 7,100 7,025 7,050 -5.1 -3.5 Goods‐Producing 550 550 575 575 575 -20.7 -28.6 Service‐Providing 18,950 19,325 19,575 19,100 19,100 -3.8 0.6 1,900 2,000 2,050 2,025 2,050 -3.5 -0.6 -0.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service‐Providing 4,400 4,400 4,475 4,425 4,425 -3.3 12,650 12,925 13,050 12,650 12,625 -4 1 Federal Government 3,650 3,825 3,825 3,600 3,475 5.3 5.7 State and Local Government 9,000 9,100 9,225 9,050 9,150 -7.1 -0.7 11,502 13,263 -1,437 14,798 ... -4.9 -19.6 6,288 6,212 -9,156 7,047 ... -9.8 -34.9 787 873 1,225 1,400 ... 13.4 -1.2 4,426 6,179 6,494 6,351 6,769 6.3 4.3 1,599 2,182 2,349 2,354 2,512 -2.9 -5.8 Contracting 4,648 6,606 5,189 5,691 ... -6.8 -13.6 Hotel/Motel 865 889 1,176 1,316 ... -30.5 -13.2 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 21 Arizona’s Economy Tucson MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 491.6 494.1 492.6 488.5 488.8 -0.7 0.8 449.6 453.7 450.9 444.3 443.4 -0.9 -0.5 42 40.4 41.7 44.2 45.4 1.6 17 8.6 8.8 9 8.6 8.7 1.2 15 358.6 361.7 362.5 349 346.4 -1.5 -3.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 5.9 -3.7 Construction 13.9 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 -13.9 -22.6 Manufacturing 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.6 -2.8 -5.2 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 -3.1 1.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 0 -7.2 40.3 40.6 40 40.3 40.1 0.5 -3.7 Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 0 -4.3 Information 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 -4.3 -8.2 Financial Activities 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.4 -2.2 1.9 Professional and Business Services 47.6 48 47.2 46.7 47.4 1.5 -3.6 Educational and Health Services 59.3 59.7 60.3 59.8 59.7 3.3 1.6 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 -9.3 -7.7 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6 1.7 -8.9 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.2 27.5 2.6 -0.2 Other Services 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.5 -2 -4.3 Federal Government 12.1 12.6 14.4 13.3 12.7 7.6 8.3 State and Local Government 66.6 67.5 67.3 56.3 55 -9.2 -4.4 42.7 43.5 43.1 31.8 30.6 -11.8 -3.4 State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 960,544 905,318 923,067 860,951 ... 1.8 0.1 Retail 573,986 529,365 547,168 519,660 ... -0.9 -1.8 Food, EBR 158,186 160,318 157,572 154,231 ... 15.7 0.9 Restaurants & Bars 134,259 123,764 128,641 105,155 ... -0.4 -0.4 94,114 91,871 89,685 81,905 84,134 5.4 18 Contracting 98,908 102,819 109,622 122,992 ... 0.5 -32.1 Hotel/Motel 33,844 26,025 23,907 17,771 ... 18.4 -4.4 227 241 172 188 159 -30.6 8.6 211 233 160 168 145 -31 9.8 16 8 12 20 14 -26.3 -7.5 235,799 245,383 236,991 221,401 152,121 -41.4 3.2 1,169 1,227 1,270 1,170 792 -35.9 11.2 201,710 199,986 186,607 189,231 192,072 -8.7 -7.2 367,434 329,371 322,655 300,545 303,736 0.5 -0.9 15,248 15,607 14,850 13,334 13,047 -6.5 -10 Gasoline, EBR New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements 22 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Tucson MSA ‐ Quarterly 09II 09 III 09 IV 10 I % change vs. year ago for most recent 10II quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 1,018.80 1,021.90 1,026.70 1,030.70 1,030.70 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 4.4 1.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 1.5 -0.8 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.6 -2.3 1.5 1.7 3.5 2.6 -1.4 -197 26.6 33,772 33,858 34,174 34,738 34,974 3.6 1.1 20,845 20,740 20,830 20,958 20,982 0.7 -2.1 2,399 2,391 2,404 2,424 2,431 1.3 -1 192 190 191 192 192 0.1 -2.3 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 7,475 7,452 7,527 7,644 7,683 2.8 -1.8 Plus: Transfer Payments 7,660 7,867 8,030 8,369 8,548 11.6 13.1 33,150 33,134 33,285 33,702 33,931 2.4 -0.1 Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration 1.3 Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Cochise County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 63,100 62,950 62,775 64,350 64,125 -0.5 58,050 58,175 57,825 59,000 58,550 -1.4 1.8 0.8 5,050 4,775 4,950 5,350 5,575 10.9 15.1 8 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.7 11.5 13.2 -2.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 37,025 37,150 37,175 36,900 36,500 -1.6 Total Private 24,600 24,625 24,600 24,675 24,600 -1.6 -3.2 Goods‐Producing 2,050 2,075 2,075 2,125 2,125 -7.6 -11.1 Mining and Construction 1,450 1,475 1,475 1,525 1,525 -3.2 -10.8 Manufacturing 600 600 600 600 600 -17.2 -11.8 Service‐Providing 34,975 35,075 35,100 34,775 34,375 -1.2 -1.5 -1.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,250 6,325 6,425 6,425 6,475 4.4 Information 625 625 675 650 650 0 5 Financial Activities 975 925 900 925 925 -5.1 -5.2 Professional and Business Services 5,600 5,600 5,625 5,700 5,675 0.9 -2.6 Educational and Health Services 4,450 4,400 4,375 4,325 4,325 -2.8 0.6 Leisure and Hospitality 3,800 3,825 3,675 3,675 3,575 -8.3 -6 850 850 850 850 850 -5.6 -6.3 12,425 12,525 12,575 12,225 11,900 -1.7 0.2 Federal Government 5,225 5,325 5,375 5,450 5,375 1.4 3.9 State and Local Government 7,200 7,200 7,200 6,775 6,525 -4 -2.3 Other Services Government Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail 85,038 85,033 88,033 84,021 ... -2.3 -1 Retail 58,588 59,589 62,528 62,195 ... -2.4 -2.9 Restaurants & Bars 12,709 11,289 12,344 10,151 ... -0.3 3.5 Gasoline, EBR 13,740 14,155 13,161 11,675 12,449 5.8 12.1 Gallons (000s) ADOT 4,965 4,998 4,761 4,328 4,619 -3.4 1.4 Contracting 19,027 20,060 21,260 25,045 ... 30.5 -8.3 Hotel/Motel 4,544 4,287 4,014 3,279 ... 1.4 -1.8 37 33 27 49 37 -14 37 33 27 36 37 -14 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 23 72.4 29.5 Arizona’s Economy Coconino County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 75,600 76,400 76,200 78,500 78,500 0.9 2.3 68,800 70,100 69,900 71,600 71,900 0.7 0.6 6,800 6,300 6,300 6,900 6,600 3.1 25.6 9 8.2 8.3 8.8 8.4 2.2 22.8 -2.3 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 60,900 62,100 62,500 62,500 62,300 0.3 Total Private 41,800 42,700 43,100 43,600 43,600 1.4 -0.7 Goods‐Producing 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,400 5,400 -10 -13.8 Mining and Construction 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 -31.8 -32.7 Manufacturing 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,900 3,900 2.6 -1.1 Service‐Providing 55,700 56,900 57,300 57,100 56,900 1.4 -1 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,900 9,900 0 1.2 300 400 400 400 300 -25 -8.3 Financial Activities 1,300 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 0 -6.8 Professional and Business Services 2,400 2,500 2,500 2,600 2,600 -3.7 -9.1 Educational and Health Services 8,000 7,900 8,000 7,900 7,900 3.9 2.9 12,900 13,500 13,700 14,000 14,100 8.5 5.2 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,000 2,000 0 -1.7 19,100 19,400 19,400 18,900 18,700 -2.1 -5.6 2,900 3,300 3,800 3,700 3,700 19.4 5.8 16,200 16,100 15,600 15,200 15,000 -6.3 -7.6 115,551 118,203 138,331 147,970 ... 2.6 -1.8 Retail 72,021 73,504 84,024 90,251 ... 0.9 -3.2 Restaurants & Bars 25,536 24,698 31,211 33,205 ... 7.7 -2.5 Gasoline, EBR 17,994 20,001 23,095 24,514 32,875 32.7 14 6,502 7,063 8,355 9,087 12,197 21.1 3.7 Contracting 23,345 18,890 20,838 25,525 ... 1.3 -26.9 Hotel/Motel 16,126 18,677 25,001 29,219 ... 14.4 -2.5 17 21 18 20 22 -93 -53.1 17 21 18 20 22 214.3 4.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 24 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Gila County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 22,550 22,800 23,200 23,525 23,625 -2.4 0.4 19,975 20,400 20,750 21,000 21,025 -2.4 -1.5 2,575 2,400 2,450 2,525 2,600 -1.9 19.2 11.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 11 0.5 19 -4.6 Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 13,350 13,650 14,025 13,825 13,850 -2.5 Total Private 8,525 8,525 8,750 8,825 8,850 -3 -6.4 Goods‐Producing 2,175 2,200 2,225 2,250 2,250 -5.3 -12.6 Service‐Providing -2.9 11,175 11,450 11,800 11,575 11,600 -1.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,175 2,100 2,225 2,300 2,300 0 -3 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,175 4,225 4,300 4,275 4,300 -3.4 -4.6 Government 4,825 5,125 5,275 5,000 5,000 -1.5 -1.3 500 575 700 625 625 13.6 9.3 4,325 4,550 4,575 4,375 4,375 -3.3 -2.4 29,308 31,404 34,255 34,443 ... -11.9 -6.4 18,407 20,590 21,226 22,448 ... -15.8 -10.5 Restaurants & Bars 4,459 4,132 5,665 4,830 ... -9.6 -6 Gasoline, EBR 6,442 6,682 7,364 7,164 7,855 11.3 18.8 2,328 2,360 2,664 2,655 2,914 1.6 8.5 Contracting 5,639 6,697 5,440 5,541 ... -37.1 -29.7 Hotel/Motel 871 974 889 981 ... 4.6 -13.3 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Graham County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 14,700 14,875 14,725 14,975 14,975 0.2 12,575 12,900 12,750 12,900 12,925 2.4 -6.2 -9.1 2,125 1,975 1,975 2,075 2,050 -11.8 16.2 14.5 13.3 13.4 13.9 13.7 -12 22.4 8,000 8,250 8,125 7,850 7,825 1 -4.7 5,100 5,150 5,000 5,000 5,025 -5.2 -9.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private Goods‐Producing 925 950 975 1,000 1,000 -7 -19.8 Service‐Providing 7,075 7,300 7,150 6,850 6,825 2.2 -2.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,450 1,525 1,400 1,350 1,350 -5.3 -6.5 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,725 2,675 2,625 2,650 2,675 -4.5 -7.1 Government 2,900 3,100 3,125 2,850 2,800 14.3 5.4 450 425 475 475 450 5.9 6.1 2,450 2,675 2,650 2,375 2,350 16 5.3 19,354 20,439 22,590 20,757 ... 0.3 -7.4 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 14,482 15,087 17,440 16,372 ... 2.1 -12 Restaurants & Bars 1,920 2,143 2,268 1,842 ... -4.3 -8.6 Gasoline, EBR 2,952 3,208 2,882 2,544 2,663 0.9 37 1,067 1,133 1,043 943 988 -7.9 23.9 1,156 4,120 2,414 2,808 ... -28.6 -46.3 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 25 Arizona’s Economy Greenlee County Mar 10 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 3,975 4,075 4,025 4,050 4,025 -10.1 -6.8 3,500 3,600 3,550 3,600 3,600 2.1 -9 475 475 475 450 425 -55.3 9 11.9 11.7 11.8 11.1 10.6 -50.3 15.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 3,125 3,175 3,250 3,300 3,275 5.6 -28.1 Total Private 2,575 2,600 2,650 2,750 2,675 4.9 -32.9 Goods‐Producing 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,250 2,175 6.1 -36.1 Service‐Providing 1,025 1,050 1,100 1,050 1,100 4.8 -4.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 200 225 225 225 225 0 -14 Other Private Service‐Providing 275 250 275 275 275 0 -16 Government 550 575 600 550 600 9.1 6.6 50 50 75 50 50 0 33.3 500 525 525 500 550 10 5 10,437 14,711 5,318 11,401 ... 49.7 -36.7 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 9,494 13,787 4,264 10,453 ... 54.5 -38 Restaurants & Bars 380 250 357 332 ... 8.8 -28.7 Gasoline, EBR 563 674 696 616 657 34.5 -7.8 Gallons (000s) ADOT 203 238 252 228 244 22.8 -13.2 Contracting 994 855 610 498 ... -23.3 -86.4 Hotel/Motel 663 647 617 531 ... 18.5 -22.2 La Paz County Mar 10 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 7,900 7,750 7,700 7,900 7,825 -0.9 3.6 7,200 7,100 7,000 7,125 7,000 -1.8 3.5 700 650 700 775 825 6.5 4.8 8.9 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 7.5 1.2 5,050 5,075 5,025 4,875 4,825 0 1.2 2,700 2,675 2,625 2,575 2,525 -1.9 1.1 Goods‐Producing 175 175 175 175 175 -22.2 -28.7 Service‐Providing Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 4,875 4,900 4,850 4,700 4,650 1.1 2.8 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,275 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 -12 4.6 Other Private Service‐Providing 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 13.6 4.1 Government 2,350 2,400 2,400 2,300 2,300 2.2 1.3 350 400 375 350 350 7.7 5.8 2,000 2,000 2,025 1,950 1,950 1.3 0.5 21,123 17,585 17,984 17,093 ... 5.3 5 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 10,147 7,960 8,685 8,321 ... 10.6 4.2 Restaurants & Bars 2,190 2,126 2,065 1,733 ... -24.2 -1.7 Gasoline, EBR 8,786 7,498 7,235 7,039 7,826 11.4 17.8 3,175 2,648 2,617 2,609 2,904 1.7 3.8 1,680 1,368 1,738 1,070 ... -60 -32.4 501 374 413 486 ... -7.4 6.1 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting 26 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Mohave County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jul 10 92,600 92,300 92,100 93,400 93,700 0.1 0 82,700 82,900 82,300 83,400 83,500 -0.1 -0.9 9,900 9,400 9,800 10,000 10,200 2 8.2 10.7 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.9 1.9 8.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 46,500 46,800 46,900 46,200 46,000 -1.1 -3.6 Total Private 37,700 38,100 38,100 37,900 37,700 -2.3 -4.4 Goods‐Producing 5,400 5,400 5,500 5,600 5,500 -8.3 -17.2 2,600 2,600 2,700 2,700 2,700 -12.9 -22.7 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,900 2,800 -3.4 -11.1 Service‐Providing 41,100 41,400 41,400 40,600 40,500 0 -1.4 10,600 10,600 10,600 10,500 10,500 -1.9 -4.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 800 900 900 800 800 -11.1 -6.5 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 -11.1 -9.5 Professional and Business Services 3,100 3,200 3,100 3,200 3,200 -3 -2.3 Educational and Health Services 8,000 8,000 8,000 7,900 7,900 5.3 4.1 Leisure and Hospitality 6,100 6,300 6,200 6,100 6,000 -3.2 0.4 Other Services 2,100 2,100 2,200 2,200 2,200 0 -7.5 Government 8,800 8,700 8,800 8,300 8,300 5.1 0.4 800 600 1,100 800 900 80 22.2 8,000 8,100 7,700 7,500 7,400 0 -1.1 159,993 143,717 140,193 136,170 ... -1.9 -0.2 114,079 99,607 96,401 95,117 ... -2.5 -1.9 Restaurants & Bars 19,322 17,958 18,576 16,922 ... 5.5 1.4 Gasoline, EBR 26,593 26,153 25,215 24,131 27,386 6.8 12.2 9,610 9,235 9,122 8,945 10,161 -2.5 0.9 Contracting 17,724 22,081 19,741 25,059 ... -31.9 -28.6 Hotel/Motel 4,545 4,073 4,000 3,852 ... 3.3 1.9 26 22 18 62 31 -32.6 -17.7 26 20 18 26 21 -54.3 -24.7 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 27 Arizona’s Economy Navajo County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jul 10 40,850 41,075 41,000 42,025 41,900 -1.9 2.1 34,500 34,975 35,025 35,550 35,175 -3.4 -0.4 6,350 6,100 5,975 6,475 6,725 6.7 18.8 15.5 14.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 8.8 16.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 26,700 27,100 27,375 27,025 26,575 -3.9 -3.5 Total Private 16,150 16,575 16,850 17,125 16,950 -4 -3.6 Goods‐Producing 1,475 1,500 1,525 1,675 1,675 -22.1 -27.8 1,075 1,100 1,125 1,275 1,275 -20.3 -27.3 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 400 400 400 400 400 -27.3 -29.2 Service‐Providing 25,225 25,600 25,850 25,350 24,900 -2.4 -1.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,125 5,250 5,350 5,350 5,250 -2.8 -0.4 Information 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 -2.3 1.8 Financial Activities 450 450 450 450 450 0 -8.9 Professional and Business Services 950 950 950 950 950 -11.6 -7.9 Educational and Health Services 3,650 3,625 3,650 3,600 3,650 6.6 4 Leisure and Hospitality 2,700 2,925 3,050 3,225 3,125 -3.8 1 725 800 800 800 775 -3.1 -1.6 -3.2 Other Services Government 10,550 10,525 10,525 9,900 9,625 -3.8 Federal Government 1,800 2,025 2,175 2,000 1,975 19.7 8.5 State and Local Government 8,750 8,500 8,350 7,900 7,650 -8.4 -5.4 71,697 73,511 81,170 90,748 ... 0.3 -7 52,608 54,312 58,803 67,449 ... -1.9 -8.2 -5.7 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars 6,474 6,011 8,141 8,076 ... 1.6 12,616 13,188 14,226 15,223 17,417 23 6.4 4,559 4,657 5,146 5,643 6,462 12.3 -3.4 Contracting 3,526 11,663 6,584 9,487 ... -28.3 -39.6 Hotel/Motel 2,176 1,871 2,988 3,552 ... 1.3 -12.6 5 7 6 9 8 -20 -39 5 7 6 9 8 -20 -39 Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 28 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Santa Cruz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 17,725 17,775 17,750 17,950 18,400 0 -1.3 15,100 15,175 15,150 15,150 15,200 -0.2 -3.9 2,625 2,600 2,600 2,800 3,200 0.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.6 15.6 17.4 0.8 16.3 12,350 12,400 12,500 12,150 12,150 -0.2 -7.2 8,475 8,525 8,600 8,475 8,425 -1.2 -10.2 Goods‐Producing 775 775 825 825 900 12.5 -14.2 Service‐Providing Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 11,575 11,625 11,675 11,325 11,250 -1.1 -6.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 4,900 4,950 4,950 4,850 4,725 -1.6 -10.5 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,800 2,800 2,825 2,800 2,800 -4.3 -8.5 Government 3,875 3,875 3,900 3,675 3,725 2.1 0.2 Federal Government 1,575 1,550 1,600 1,600 1,600 3.2 3.1 State and Local Government 2,300 2,325 2,300 2,075 2,125 1.2 -1.7 36,122 33,356 32,578 32,135 ... 2.6 -1.6 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 25,959 24,143 22,995 23,953 ... 3 -4.9 Restaurants & Bars 4,843 3,713 4,361 3,559 ... 8 3.5 Gasoline, EBR 5,320 5,499 5,222 4,623 4,874 2 17 Gallons (000s) ADOT 1,922 1,942 1,889 1,714 1,808 -6.9 1.1 Contracting 6,161 3,780 8,032 5,763 ... 19.8 -37.8 Hotel/Motel 1,404 1,424 1,047 873 ... 51.7 11.8 10 6 8 3 1 -83.3 -24.7 10 6 8 3 1 -83.3 -24.7 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 29 Arizona’s Economy Yavapai County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jul 10 99,000 99,500 99,600 100,000 100,400 0 Employment 89,000 90,100 90,000 90,000 90,200 -0.2 -1.2 Unemployment 10,000 9,400 9,600 10,000 10,200 2 15.3 10.1 9.4 9.6 10 10.2 2 14.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 0.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 55,800 56,300 57,000 55,600 55,500 0.2 -4.4 Total Private 44,300 44,700 45,000 45,200 45,200 0 -4.8 Goods‐Producing 7,200 7,200 7,400 7,500 7,500 -7.4 -15.9 4,700 4,700 4,800 4,900 4,900 -9.3 -18.1 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 2,500 2,500 2,600 2,600 2,600 -3.7 -11.3 Service‐Providing 48,600 49,100 49,600 48,100 48,000 1.5 -2.4 11,600 11,600 11,600 11,700 11,700 0 -2.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 500 500 500 500 500 0 -10.4 Financial Activities 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 -3.8 Professional and Business Services 3,400 3,500 3,400 3,400 3,500 2.9 -8.5 Educational and Health Services 10,600 10,600 10,700 10,600 10,600 5 1.6 Leisure and Hospitality 7,100 7,400 7,400 7,500 7,400 0 -3.6 Other Services 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 0 -1.6 11,500 11,600 12,000 10,400 10,300 1 -2.7 1,500 1,500 2,000 1,800 1,800 28.6 4.6 10,000 10,100 10,000 8,600 8,500 -3.4 -3.8 Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail 143,197 144,678 151,034 146,312 ... 0.1 -3.2 Retail 98,981 100,335 106,201 102,941 ... -1.5 -6.1 Restaurants & Bars 22,596 21,976 23,246 23,370 ... 6.5 -2.3 Gasoline, EBR 21,621 22,367 21,588 20,000 21,272 11.3 20 7,813 7,898 7,810 7,414 7,892 1.6 7.9 Contracting 19,797 18,974 21,578 25,604 ... -31.7 -41.5 Hotel/Motel 8,471 9,238 8,837 8,090 ... 11 -7.6 73 25 28 19 17 -52.8 10.2 22 23 24 19 17 -52.8 -14.2 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 30 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October, 2010— Fall Issue Yuma County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jul 10 month 12‐mo. average 83,600 87,500 89,400 90,100 92,400 3.5 1.1 Employment 67,000 66,100 65,000 66,300 65,800 -0.3 -2.6 Unemployment 16,600 21,400 24,400 23,800 26,600 14.2 15.2 19.9 24.5 27.3 26.4 28.8 10.3 14 -5.8 Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 49,700 49,300 48,900 47,700 47,100 0.4 Total Private 34,700 34,300 33,800 33,100 32,900 -2.9 -8.4 Goods‐Producing 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 2.3 -18.9 Mining and Construction 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 -6.9 -22.5 Manufacturing 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 20 -12.3 Service‐Providing -4.3 45,200 44,800 44,400 43,200 42,600 0.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,400 9,100 8,700 8,600 8,500 -7.6 -12 Information 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,300 1,200 -25 -3.6 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 6.7 0.5 Professional and Business Services 4,200 4,200 4,100 4,100 4,200 -8.7 -8.3 Educational and Health Services 6,700 6,600 6,700 6,600 6,600 6.5 2.5 Leisure and Hospitality 5,000 5,000 4,800 4,700 4,600 -4.2 -9.5 Other Services 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,700 1,700 6.3 -4.3 15,000 15,000 15,100 14,600 14,200 9.2 0.8 Government Federal Government 3,800 3,900 4,200 3,900 4,000 8.1 5.5 11,200 11,100 10,900 10,700 10,200 9.7 -0.8 156,896 125,834 123,044 113,179 ... -3.3 -5.8 112,399 89,847 85,406 79,958 ... -2 -7.2 Restaurants & Bars 20,676 16,848 17,533 15,152 ... -3.4 -6.7 Gasoline, EBR 23,821 19,139 20,105 18,069 19,258 4.9 7.6 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 8,608 6,758 7,273 6,697 7,145 -4.3 -5.7 Contracting 19,950 22,616 17,213 24,629 ... -44.8 -43.9 Hotel/Motel 5,053 4,066 4,194 3,273 ... 1.7 -5.5 52 74 28 28 42 -41.7 -9.5 52 74 28 28 42 -41.7 -19.4 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 31 Arizona’s Economy ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. 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