July 2010—Summer Issue The Healing Process Has Begun By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director June 1, 2010 Repair of the extensive damage to Arizona’s economy has begun. An entire decade of growth has been lost, and it will take years to restore. Let’s hope the new decade brings renewed prosperity for all. Economic recovery at the national level is proceeding nicely. After the 5.6% surge in 2009Q4, real GDP grew by 3.0% in the first quarter and could top 4% in the second. For all of 2010, real GDP will grow by 3.5% or so. A swing in inventories accounted for earlier growth but now exports and fiscal stimulus are providing needed lift. equipment and software. Credit conditions continue to improve, and inflation and interest rates remain low. Consumer spending is growing at the fastest pace in three years. Nonfarm employment is expanding much faster than expected. Housing markets are stabilizing as well. Arizona is lagging behind other parts of the country, but conditions are looking much better here too. Consumer spending is increasing as evidenced by retail sales figures. Nonfarm employment has stopped falling as hiring resumes, at least in some sectors. Homebuilding activity has moved up off the bottom, and home prices are no longer declining. Not all components of the economy have turned the corner and entered recovery mode, but the list is growing. Recent Evidence Retail sales statewide have been growing since July 2009. Month-on-month growth, after adjusting for seasonality and expressed at annual rates, registers 8.8% over the past six months. Four major subcategories have recorded double-digit gains. Consumers are The business environment conbuying furniture once again tinues to improve steadily. (up 20.7%), thereby breathing After-tax non-financial corpolife into a deeply depressed rate profits and cash flows are category. They also have very strong and moving opened their wallets at clothhigher, and that’s boosting ing and accessory stores (up investment spending on 11.3%) and “miscellaneous” retail stores (up 19.5%). Even motor vehicle dealers, miscellaneous automotive, and building materials stores are registering positive growth. Only general merchandise stores are still declining. Food and liquor stores and restaurant & bar sales are flat (Exhibit 1). So, why are consumers boosting spending while surveys of consumer confidence continue to remain close to historic lows, with readings near 60 (Exhibit 2)? Consumers are still worried about possible job losses, the absence of raises during the past three years, and declines Inside This Issue: THE HEALING PROCESS 1 HAS BEGUN Marshall J. Vest A LOST DECADE? 5 Marshall J. Vest ARIZONA’S STATISTICAL AREAS: EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION 6 Valorie Rice and Marshall J. Vest ARIZONA BANKRUPTCY LEGISLATION AND TRENDS 8 Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman ECONOMIC FORECAST 12 AZ ECONOMIC INDICATORS 16 Exhibit 1: Consumers Boost Spending Spending Growth Over Last Six Months, Arizona (annual rate) % change % of total 8.8 - 2.6 10.3 Miscellaneous Automotive 11.2 4.3 Furniture, Home Furnishings 20.7 6.4 Building Material, Lawn & Garden 5.9 7.0 Food and Liquor Stores 0.0 8.2 Miscellaneous Retail 19.5 15.8 Clothing and Accessories 11.3 5.8 General Merchandise -3.1 18.8 Restaurant & Bar Sales 0.0 - Retail Sales, Total Selected Categories: Motor Vehicle Dealers Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and EBR Arizona’s Economy Exhibit 2: Confidence Remains Low Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) index 160 140 U.S. 120 100 Arizona 80 60 40 20 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 0 Retail Sales Growth, Arizona (retail, restaurant & bar, food, and gasoline) percent change 15 10 5 0 -5 Real -10 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 2 As job growth resumes and incomes start growing again, sales will benefit from a wider swath of households. We’ve revised upward our forecast for retail sales statewide to nearly 6% growth this year, followed by an almost 11% gain the following. Our forecast of a broader measure that includes restaurant & bar sales, gasoline sales, and an estimate of food sales is shown in Exhibit 3. Nonfarm jobs, a comprehensive measure of employment, hit bottom in November 2009. Seasonally adjusted, employment now rests a little below 2.4 million, down 294,400 from its August 2007 peak. Since bottoming four months ago (data through March), employment has grown by 8,200 jobs. That’s not much, but it’s a beginning -- and the direction is encouraging (Exhibit 4). Exhibit 3: Improved Outlook for Retailers Nominal in net worth as the value of their homes plummet. Nevertheless, they are moving to satisfy “pent-up demand” for items that were deferred during the recession. Reports from nationwide retailers indicate resurgence in high-end cars, home improvements, and luxury items by upper-income households. The increased spending is being covered by a decline in the savings rate, to 2.7% in March from 4% last year. Federal rebate programs for energy-efficient appliances, replacement windows and doors, homebuyer credits, and new car purchases also have accelerated purchases. Spending also is being fueled by delinquent homeowners who have extra money since they stopped making mortgage payments. Many remain in their homes rent free for as long as two years before getting thrown out. Those who are now renting have cut their housing costs in half or more, and that frees up cash for spending. -15 Not all employment sectors have stabilized. But in the last three months, we’ve seen improvement or reversals in several sectors. Construction’s devastating plunge came to a halt as did other durable manufacturing. Employment in food and drinking places, building materials, accommodations, wholesale trade, clothing, and nondurable manufacturing have all reversed direction and are now headed upward. These sectors join mining, educational services, wholesale trade, and health care and social services that have been increasing for some time. Aerospace manufacturing and federal government, both of which had been growing rapidly, leveled off during the past three months. Other sectors that continued to show stability include professional and business services, employment services, and transportation and warehousing. Fabricated metals manufacturing, computer manufacturing, financial services, information, furniture stores, educational services, motor vehicle dealers, and state and local government payrolls continued to move lower. From the fourth quarter 2009 through the end of this year, the most net new jobs (10,000) will be provided by educational and health services. All other major sectors Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue will add smaller amounts with the exception of construction, government, and professional and business services. By the end of 2011 (again comparing to 2009Q4), the numbers of new jobs increase dramatically, especially in the aggregate category covering trade, transportation and utilities. Construction and government payrolls will continue to suffer and be a drag on economic growth. See Table A.4 for detailed forecasts. Arizona’s unemployment rate moved upward in February and March, reaching 9.6% before dropping back to 9.5% in April. The explanation as to why unemployment moves up in the early stages of a recovery is that the labor force grows more rapidly than employment. The labor force rises faster because workers who had stopped looking for work (and dropped out of the labor force) reenter when they learn that jobs are once again being created. Meanwhile, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance continues to come down rather dramatically. We expect the unemployment rate to approach 6.5% by the end of next year. Exhibit 5 shows this widening gap, which will persist for a few more months. Exhibit 4: Recovery Has Begun Nonfarm Jobs, Arizona seasonally adjusted thousands percent change 10 2700 annual rate (m/m), smoothed (right) 2600 5 2500 2400 0 2300 -5 number (left) 2200 -10 2100 2000 Population counts from the 2010 Census should be available next March. If current estimates are accurate, Arizona will have nearly 6.7 million residents. That should rank Arizona as the 13th largest state. Metro Phoenix will account for 4.45 million, while metro Tucson records 1.03 million. Our forecasts show that statewide, population will swell by 84,000 this year and by 131,000 next.. 98 00 Fourth quarter data for personal income showed an annual rate of gain equal to 4.5%. That reverses a string of losses and is the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began. Annual gains of 1.9% and 4.2% are forecast for this year and next. Housing markets in Arizona appear to have bottomed, but recovery is still a ways down the road. Affordability stands at record highs and mortgage rates have dropped below the psychological threshold of 5% once again. But the supply of vacant homes remains extremely high. Nationwide, vacancy is at 2.5% compared to a normal 1% or so. Measures for Arizona are not available, but vacancies are no doubt higher. The number of vacant units reported by the US Postal Service approaches 120,000 statewide, of which 82,000 are in metro Phoenix and 25,000 are in metro Tucson. Residential building permits are leveling off now that homebuyer credits have ended, and are expected to remain stable until excess inventory is absorbed. Foreclosures appear to have leveled off nationwide, but remain near record high levels. Repossessions are at record highs and continue growing at rapid rates, as lenders continue to work through their backlog of delinquent properties. According to some estimates, one in four homeowners nationwide is underwater. It’s closer to half in Arizona. 02 04 06 08 10 -15 Exhibit 5: The Labor Force is Growing Faster Labor Force and Employment, Arizona seasonally adjusted percent thousands 3200 10 labor force (right) 9 3000 8 2800 7 employment (right) 2600 6 2400 5 2200 4 unemployment (left) 3 98 00 02 04 06 08 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 10 3 2000 Arizona’s Economy “But a growing por‐ tion of the economy has begun to recover, and momentum will continue to gain in coming months.” That will continue to restrain upward movement in housing prices. Nevertheless, home prices are increasing. Using realtor data, the median price of homes sold in Phoenix was 9.1% higher in the first quarter than a year earlier, which ranks 31st among 152 metro areas. This corroborates the Home Price Index published by Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller that shows metro Phoenix home prices growing at a 17% annual rate since the middle of last year. Multifamily markets continue to swoon as vacancy rates continue to rise and rents fall. According to industry sources, apartment vacancies are a record high 8.0% nationwide and 13.3% in metro Tucson. Rental rates fell 2.9% nationwide and 1.3% in metro Tucson during the past year. Apartment development is practically zero and will remain moribund until the “shadow market” comprised of vacant houses for rent subsides. In commercial markets, it’s much the same story; vacancies continue to rise and lease rates are declining. No new construction is expected for at least another year. The Outlook, With Risks Not all sectors have turned the corner and for some, recession will linger a bit longer. But a growing portion of the economy has begun to recover, and momentum will continue to gain in coming months. Oil Spills, Eurozone turmoil, and volatility in stock markets won’t derail the recovery. “...results from the May 18 special election are in and voters overwhelmingly approved a one cent increase in the state sales tax rate by a two‐to‐one Closer to home, it’s still too early to gage damage from the state’s controversial new immigration law. Estimates from credible sources within Arizona’s tourism industry say that cancellations of meetings and conventions approached two dozen as of mid May. Add to that the effects of boycotts by other states and cities. The effects will not be enough to derail the state’s recovery, but will hinder the healing process. Interestingly, a recent survey by Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center found that the majority of Arizonans favor the new law – 52% in favor versus 39% opposed. National polls have found similar results. It’s possible that Arizona’s image may receive a lift from this controversy. Other states reportedly are looking at similar legislation. Finally, as this is written, results from the May 18 special election are in and voters overwhelmingly approved a one cent increase in the state sales tax rate by a two-to-one margin. This will raise a little less than $1 billion annually over three years. Voters displayed great recognition of the dire situation of state government finances and the inability of elected officials to remedy the situation on their own. Unfortunately, the extra sales tax money does not fix the problem. It’s but one piece. In the fall, voters will be asked to allow the legislature to use funds dedicated for early childhood development and for land preservation. That won’t be enough, so large cuts in spending are yet to come. There is still a $2.2 billion structural deficit remaining, and growth in revenues as the economy recovers won’t close the gap. Stay tuned… margin. ... Voters displayed great recognition of the dire situation of state government finances and the inability of elected officials to remedy the situation on their own.” 4 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue A Lost Decade? By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director “The new decade just begun will be Three months ago, we presented data on high-tech that showed employment levels lower today than a decade ago. That measure includes more than 40 four-digit NAICS categories spread across both manufacturing and service sector industries. Services-related accounts for roughly two-thirds of total high tech employment. different, we just don’t know how. High tech is not the only sector that has suffered. Professional and business services jobs are no higher than in 2000. State government payrolls now rest at the lowest level since 1999. The information sector is now back to 1996 levels. Construction employment now stands at levels first reached in 1994. Finally, manufacturing jobs are the lowest since 1982 – almost three decades ago! (See Graph 1). Why were the decades of the nineties and aughts so different? In the nineties, money flowed freely into new technologies. Dotcom companies were born, Internet retailing came into being, communication portals were introduced, fiber optic cables were installed, new business models based on information technologies we adopted, and the “New Economy” focused investors’ attention. In short, these investments brought a surge in productivity and standard of living last experienced during the 1960s. Where will the money flow next? During the aughts, money flowed into housing, which is a consumption good rather than investment in a productive asset. During this period, money to support productivity-enhancing investment dried up. References to the “false economy” of homebuilding often heard nowadays reflect this. It’s the absence of growth in prosperity and the productivity-enhancing portions of the economy that bring the sense of a lost decade. Will it bring widespread advances in prosperity?” The new decade just begun will be different, we just don’t know how. Where will the money flow next? Will it bring widespread advances in prosperity? Graph1: Losses During the Past Decade Were Staggering thousands Manufacturing Jobs, Arizona seasonally adjusted thousands 250 200 150 100 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 50 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 Arizona’s Economy Arizona’s Statistical Areas: Employment and Population By Valorie Rice, Research Librarian, and Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director “Arizona’s two largest metro areas combined (Phoenix and Tucson) account for 86% of the state’s nonfarm jobs and 82% of total population .” As defined by the Federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Arizona now has six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and five Micropolitan Statistical areas. Arizona’s two largest metro areas combined (Phoenix and Tucson) account for 86% of the state’s nonfarm jobs and 82% of total population (Table 1). The federal government publishes much more detailed data, for example industry level employment data, for statistical areas than it does for counties. In Arizona, seven of its 15 counties are in metro- areas and six more counties are in micro- areas. Only two counties – Apache and La Paz – aren’t included in a metro- or micropolitanstatistical area. EBR’s forecasting efforts are focused on the two largest metro areas, where nearly all of Arizona’s people and economic activity are located. the end of March. The 2010 Census data will be released next spring meaning these are the last population estimates to use the 2000 Census as base. The 2011 estimates will be the first to use 2010 data as the base. Population estimates Arizona has six metropolitan areas: Phoenix-MesaGlendale, Tucson, Prescott, Yuma, Lake Havasu CityKingman, and Flagstaff; and The Census Bureau released 2009 population estimates for counties and metro areas at Ranking Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas by Population Table 1: Arizona’s Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas 2009 Estimates (000s) Population as of July 1, 2009 Nonfarm Employment (annual avg.) Metropolitan Statistical Area Flagstaff 129,849 62,300 Lake Havasu City‐Kingman 194,825 46,900 4,364,094 1,719,600 215,686 56,700 1,020,200 361,900 196,972 50,200 Nogales 43,771 12,975 Payson 52,199 14,100 Safford 45,086 8,175 Show Low 112,975 27,550 Sierra Vista‐Douglas 129,518 37,550 6,595,778 2,426,400 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Scottsdale Prescott Tucson Yuma Micropolitan Statistical Area Arizona Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue five micropolitan areas: Sierra Vista-Douglas, Show Low, Payson, Safford and Nogales. The difference between metropolitan areas and micropolitan areas is the size of the “core urban area” or major town within the county or counties they encompass. For metropolitan areas the core urban area is 50,000 or larger and for micropolitan areas the core urban area is at least 10,000 but less than 50,000. They can include one or more counties, and in some cases, states. In Arizona, the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale Metropolitan Area includes both Maricopa and Pinal counties and the Safford Micropolitan Area includes both Graham and Greenlee counties. There are 366 metropolitan areas and 574 micropolitan areas in the United States as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Table 2 shows the largest metropolitan and micropolitan areas for 2009 including the rankings for Arizona (which mostly fall far down the list). You will notice that there is a good deal of overlap between the population of metropolitan and micropolitan areas due to the size of the surrounding counties. For example, in Arizona, the Sierra Vista-Douglas Micropolitan Area is very near the size of the Flagstaff Metropolitan Area, but there is a larger portion of population in Cochise County outside of Sierra Vista (which is still slightly smaller than 50,000) as compared to the population of Coconino County outside of Flagstaff itself. County Estimates Metropolitan statistical areas are often comprised of more than one county, but in the case of Arizona most encompass only one county. County level estimate still provide important information about rural areas and communities. Most Arizona counties saw a modest increase in population from 2008 to 2009, though three (Gila, Greenlee and Mohave) actually saw a slight decrease. Greenlee was the only county to lose population between 2000 and 2009. Apache, Gila and La Paz had single digit increases over the nine year period while other counties saw substantial cumulative growth, especially Pinal (see Table 3). Table 2: Estimates of Population for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas and Rankings: July 1, 2009 Metropolitan statistical areas 1 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 19,069,796 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 12,874,797 3 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 9,580,567 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,447,615 5 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,968,252 6 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,867,489 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 5,547,051 8 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,476,241 9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5,475,213 10 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,588,680 11 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 4,403,437 12 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,364,094 52 Tucson, AZ 1,020,200 196 Prescott, AZ 215,686 213 Yuma, AZ 196,972 216 Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ 194,825 293 Flagstaff, AZ 129,849 Micropolitan statistical areas 1 Seaford, DE 192,747 2 Torrington, CT 188,728 3 Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL 179,878 4 Hilton Head Island-Beaufort, SC 178,436 5 Hilo, HI 177,835 6 Lebanon, NH-VT 171,739 7 East Stroudsburg, PA 166,355 8 Thomasville-Lexington, NC 158,582 9 Statesville-Mooresville, NC 158,153 10 Ottawa-Streator, IL 153,206 22 Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ 129,518 33 Show Low, AZ 112,975 222 Payson, AZ 52,199 284 Safford, AZ 45,086 296 Nogales, AZ 43,771 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Division (Release March 2010) Note: Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale is now called Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Arizona’s Statistical Areas: Employment and Population — Cont... Table 3: Estimates of Population for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas and Rankings: July 1, 2009 Geographic Area Population July 2009 Change 2008 to 2009 Change 2000 to 2009 Number Percent Number Percent Arizona 6,595,778 96,401 1.5 1,465,171 28.6 Apache 70,591 1,071 1.5 1,168 1.7 Cochise 129,518 1,093 0.9 11,786 10 Coconino 129,849 1,423 1.1 13,531 11.6 Gila 52,199 -74 -0.1 869 1.7 Graham 37,045 841 2.3 3,556 10.6 Greenlee 8,041 -17 -0.2 -506 -5.9 20,012 7 - 297 1.5 4,023,132 64,869 1.6 950,964 31 Mohave 194,825 -776 -0.4 39,793 25.7 Navajo 112,975 627 0.6 15,507 15.9 Pima 1,020,200 10,368 1 176,458 20.9 Pinal 340,962 11,902 3.6 161,242 89.7 43,771 638 1.5 5,390 14 Yavapai 215,686 756 0.4 48,170 28.8 Yuma 196,972 3,673 1.9 36,946 23.1 La Paz Maricopa Santa Cruz Pinal County showed the largest gain in population for the last year as well as over the last nine years. In fact, with an 89.7% increase Pinal County ranked as the second fastest growing county in the United States from 2000 to 2009 behind Kendall County, IL (91.2%). No other Arizona county ranked among the top 100 fastest growing counties. Arizona’s two largest counties, Maricopa and Pima, did however rank among the 100 largest counties in the United States for 2009 coming in 4th and 41st, respectively. The three largest counties in the US in 2009 were Los Angeles County, CA; Cook County, IL (Chicago); and Harris County, TX (Houston). Source: US Census Bureau, Population Division (Release March 2010) Arizona Bankruptcy Legislation and Trends By Lora Mwaniki-Lyman Research Economist and Data Manager “Individuals and business owners may at some point in life be faced with the challenge of overburdening debt.” 8 Individuals and business owners may at some point in life be faced with the challenge of overburdening debt due to changes in economic environment, lifestyle, and unforeseeable events. While most may work their way out of their debt problem by tightening their belts, seeking credit counseling or debt restructuring, some may decide to file for bankruptcy. The United States Bankruptcy Code provides individuals and businesses with a legal process through which a bankruptcy case may be filed. There are 90 bankruptcy divisions in the country each with its own court. Arizona has three Bankruptcy Courts: Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma. The Phoenix Court serves Apache, Coconino, Gila, Mari- Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona copa, Navajo and Yavapai counties; the Tucson Court serves Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties, and the Yuma Court serves La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. Individuals and businesses may file bankruptcy though one of six bankruptcy cases provided under the Bankruptcy Code. These cases are July 2010—Summer Issue Graph 1: Arizona Bankruptcy Monthly Filings January 1984 to April 2010 named according to the chapters that describe them. In general: Chapter 7 provides for the liquidation of debtors’ nonexempt assets and distribution of proceeds to creditors; Chapter 13 facilitates adjustment of individual debt; Chapter 11 provides corporate and partnerships with the option to reorganize; Chapter 12 provides family farmers and fishermen with adjustment of debt; Chapter 9 provides for the reorganization of municipality; and Chapter 15 is a new chapter added to the Bankruptcy Code by the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005. The chapter provides a process by which liquidation cases involving debtors and creditors across borders can effectively be handled. Go to www.uscourts.gov for details on each chapter of the Bankruptcy Code. While the Bankruptcy Code has been amended several times, it is the most recently enacted Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act that has had a significant effect on the number of individuals and businesses filing for bankruptcy. Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) signed into law on April 20, 2005, took effect on October 17, 2005. BAPCPA largely affects consumer bankruptcy but also includes provisions affecting farmers, small businesses, and corporations. The act makes it more difficult for consumers to declare bankruptcy under Chapter 7 (liquidation) and forces them instead to file for Chapter 13 (adjustment of debt) while reducing the abuse and fraudulent use of the bankruptcy system. New changes in the bankruptcy system brought about by BAPCPA include the use of a means test (applied to filers whose gross income six months prior to filing is above the median of the state) to determine eligibility for filing under Chapter 7. Other changes brought by the new act include additional requirements such as mandatory counseling, additional filing requirements and fees, limited household exemptions, increased debt repayments under Chapter 13, and eight instead of six years discharge of a Chapter 7 filing after prior Chapter 7 case, among others. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Arizona Total Bankruptcy Fillings Jan‐10 Jan‐09 Jan‐08 Jan‐07 Jan‐06 Jan‐05 Jan‐04 Jan‐03 Jan‐02 Jan‐01 Jan‐00 Jan‐99 Jan‐98 Jan‐97 Jan‐96 Jan‐95 Jan‐94 Jan‐93 Jan‐92 Jan‐91 Jan‐90 Jan‐89 Jan‐88 Jan‐87 Jan‐86 Jan‐85 Jan‐84 0 Arizona Chapter 7 Filings Source: US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Arizona Effects of BAPCPA The anticipated effects of the act resulted in a historic rush to file for bankruptcy, especially Chapter 7. Total bankruptcy filings in Arizona for the month of October 2005 reached a record 11,132 compared to 2,446 for the same month the previous year; an increase of over 355%. Over 93% of the October filings were Chapter 7 (see Graph 1). A dismal 184 bankruptcies in total were filed in November and 248 in December 2005. The composition of types of cases filed has also changed slightly after the enactment of BAPCPA. From 1984 to 2004, on average 78.2% cases filed in Arizona were Chapter 7 compared to 80.0% for 2006 to current (see Graph 2). “..It is the most recently enacted Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act that has had a significant effect on the number of individuals and businesses filing for bankruptcy.” Graph 2: Arizona Business and Non-Business Bankruptcy Filings 2004q4 to 2009q2 450 14,000 400 12,000 350 10,000 300 250 8,000 200 6,000 150 4,000 100 2,000 50 0 0 Business Filings Non‐Business Filings Source: US Bankruptcy Court www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 Arizona’s Economy Graph 3: Share of Business and Non-Business Filing for Bankruptcy 2004q4 to 2009q2 100.0% 7.0% 99.0% 6.0% 98.0% 5.0% 97.0% 4.0% 96.0% 3.0% 95.0% 94.0% 2.0% 93.0% 1.0% 92.0% 0.0% 91.0% Bussiness Filings as % of Total Filings Non‐Business Filings as % of Total Filings Source: US Bankruptcy Court While BAPCPA made it more difficult for individuals to file for Chapter 7, it did not seem to have a significant effect on corporations and partnerships. According to the most recent released quarterly data, the 423 total business filings under Chapter 7, 11, and 13 for the second quarter of 2009 are above the 142 record high filings of the fourth quarter of 2005 when BAPCPA was enacted. The 8,646 total non-business (individual) filings for Chapter 7, 11, and 13 for the second quarter of 2009 are still well below the 11,505 record peak filings for the fourth quarter of 2005. Businesses are also commanding a larger share of total bankruptcies filed than individuals. The share of businesses filing for all types of bankruptcies to total filings in Arizona increased from 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2005 to 4.7% in the second quarter of 2009 (see Graph 3). The increase in the ratio of businesses to total choosing to file for bankruptcy (especially Chapter 7 and 11) since their peak in the fourth quarter of 2005 can be attributed to the slowing economy and consumers cutting back on discretionary spending to deal with the increase in gas prices, weak housing market, inflation, and steep job loss; hence spending less in restaurants and retail stores. Businesses most affected include automobile sales, hotels, restaurants, stores selling household durables, and some specialty stores. Graph 4: Bankruptcy Filings in Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma January 2006 to April 2010 While the BAPCPA resulted in a decrease in bankruptcies filed, the now ended housing market and financial crisis led recession have seen a steady increase in bankruptcy filings over the past three years. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan‐06 Arizona Bankruptcies on the Rise Jun‐06 Nov‐06 Apr‐07 Phoenix Total Filings Sep‐07 Feb‐08 Tucson Total Filings Source: US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Arizona 10 Jul‐08 Dec‐08 May‐09 Oct‐09 Mar‐10 Yuma Total Filings According to the most recent monthly District of Arizona bankruptcy report for April, 3,974 total filings were reported in Arizona, 84.2% of which were Chapter 7 (liquidation) filings. The 13,316 bankruptcy cases filed in Arizona between January and April of 2010 already surpass the 9,190 bankruptcies filed for the same period in 2009. The Phoenix Bankruptcy Court leads Arizona’s other two Bankruptcy Courts, Tucson and Yuma, in bankruptcy filings reported (see Graph 4). 2,496 bankruptcy cases were filed in Phoenix, 627 in Tucson and 219 in Yuma for the month of October. Phoenix reported the largest year-over- Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue year increase in October of 60.8%, followed by Yuma and Tucson at 75.2% and 41.9% respectively. Chapter 7 filings in Phoenix increased by 60.81% for the same period. “Phoenix is one of the metro areas in Phoenix is one of the metro areas in the United States that has been hardest hit by the housing crisis. The Phoenix metro area was ranked eighth in year-end foreclosures for 2009 with one in every 12 households facing foreclosure according to RealtyTrac Inc. RealtyTrac Inc. publishes the largest and most comprehensive database of properties in foreclosure and bank repossessions (Source: www.realtytrac.com accessed 05/12/10). This was an improvement from the Phoenix metro area’s ranking as having the 5th highest foreclosure rating in 2008. Arizona was ranked third in foreclosures in March 2010 with one in every 144 households facing foreclosure or repossession. the United States that has been hardest hit by the housing crisis. The Phoenix metro area was ranked eighth in In addition, the Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported by Standard and Poor showed home prices in Phoenix as having reached bottom in May 2009. The Phoenix home price index showed an over-the-month decrease of 1.5 percent in February 2010 and is still below its level compared to February last year with an over-the-year decline of 1.6 percent. year‐end foreclosures for 2009.” We should expect bankruptcy cases filed in Arizona to peak as the housing market continues to improve and the economy picks up. For historical data and additional data series, subscribe to the EBR Database Online. The Economic and Business Research Center has maintained economic indicators on the State of Arizona since 1949. The EBR Database Online builds upon this large and up-to-date database to provide economic and socio-demographic data series in simple, easy to generate reports online. To subscribe visit : http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Forecast Tables Arizona Arizona’s Economy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 217,075.7 221,100.6 230,364.0 245,289.1 263,238.4 -2.7 1.9 4.2 6.5 7.3 32,911 33,100 33,823 35,214 36,870 -4.2 0.6 2.2 4.1 4.7 70,129.9 74,601.3 81,835.7 89,354.9 95,783.0 -10.3 6.4 9.7 9.2 7.2 11,599.4 11,837.7 12,454.7 13,081.9 13,815.2 0.7 2.1 5.2 5.0 5.6 43,827.4 46,398.1 51,442.7 56,621.5 60,767.0 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change -10.9 5.9 10.9 10.1 7.3 8,884.2 9,204.8 10,033.4 10,980.7 11,889.7 -5.3 3.6 9.0 9.4 8.3 6,110.0 7,450.3 8,208.4 8,990.1 9,648.6 -27.0 21.9 10.2 9.5 7.3 2,427.2 2,386.3 2,420.6 2,523.6 2,649.0 -7.2 -1.7 1.4 4.3 5.0 11.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change -18.6 -7.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 Construction 129.5 103.1 93.7 110.4 138.2 % change -30.5 -20.3 -9.1 17.8 25.2 Manufacturing 154.0 152.8 157.3 163.3 168.2 % change Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change -11.0 -0.8 2.9 3.8 3.0 478.8 471.7 482.3 502.1 523.3 -7.4 -1.5 2.2 4.1 4.2 39.3 37.8 40.2 41.5 42.0 -6.4 -3.9 6.5 3.1 1.3 345.2 337.3 339.8 356.7 380.0 -10.6 -2.3 0.7 5.0 6.5 256.0 256.6 264.0 274.5 284.8 -5.2 0.2 2.9 4.0 3.7 422.7 414.1 409.2 413.3 422.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.2 1.0 2.2 6,596 6,680 6,811 6,966 7,140 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.5 9 8 7 6 6 14,424.6 20,062.5 36,795.7 51,320.0 63,072.9 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Unemployment Rate, percent Residential Permits (units) % change -43 39 83 40 23 Single family 12,939.4 18,610.7 33,355.9 45,906.9 54,942.7 % change -27.2 43.8 79.2 37.6 19.7 Multi‐family 1,485.3 1,451.7 3,439.8 5,413.1 8,130.2 % change Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Civilian Nonag Wage Rate % change 12 -80 -2 137 57 50 2,640.4 2,655.1 2,760.4 2,883.9 3,007.5 -2.7 0.6 4.0 4.5 4.3 45,295.6 46,231.3 47,438.6 48,612.9 49,978.6 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA 2009 2010 Forecast Tables 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 147,117.5 148,577.1 155,002.2 165,140.8 -5.1 1.0 4.3 6.5 178,512.2 8.1 33,711 33,438 34,001 35,229 36,961 -6.8 -0.8 1.7 3.6 4.9 46,922.6 49,899.6 54,465.2 58,915.4 63,127.3 -12.3 6.3 9.1 8.2 7.1 6,825.5 7,171.5 7,496.8 7,876.2 8,368.8 -10.1 5.1 4.5 5.1 6.3 30,146.3 31,846.6 35,208.6 38,342.8 41,124.6 -11.3 5.6 10.6 8.9 7.3 6,176.9 6,263.9 6,717.1 7,208.8 7,778.9 -5.8 1.4 7.2 7.3 7.9 3,773.9 4,617.7 5,042.8 5,487.7 5,855.0 -30.1 22.4 9.2 8.8 6.7 1,720.8 1,673.1 1,713.2 1,791.7 1,899.0 -7.8 -2.8 2.4 4.6 6.0 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction -19.7 -2.8 8.7 5.9 5.0 96.1 69.4 66.1 80.1 111.3 % change -31.0 -27.8 -4.8 21.1 39.0 Manufacturing 114.9 114.4 119.0 124.5 128.4 % change -11.4 -0.4 4.0 4.6 3.2 381.5 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 355.4 344.5 350.7 366.6 % change -7.4 -3.1 1.8 4.5 4.1 Information 29.0 27.0 28.6 29.4 29.7 % change -6.9 -6.9 5.9 2.7 1.2 275.5 265.8 273.9 282.6 302.0 -11.0 -3.5 3.0 3.2 6.9 174.8 173.9 179.6 187.5 195.3 -5.3 -0.5 3.3 4.4 4.2 239.1 234.0 231.7 236.8 244.0 -2.8 -2.1 -1.0 2.2 3.1 4,364.1 4,443.4 4,558.7 4,687.7 4,829.8 2 2 3 3 3 48,181.0 Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) 9,359.0 13,585.0 29,035.0 38,310.0 % change -50 45 114 32 26 Single family 8,657.0 12,697.0 26,479.0 34,612.0 42,062.0 % change -31.6 46.7 108.5 30.7 21.5 Multi‐family 702.0 889.0 2,556.0 3,698.0 6,119.0 % change -88.1 26.6 187.6 44.7 65.5 1,637.2 1,648.4 1,698.5 1,763.0 1,827.7 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change -6 1 3 4 4 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 -25.9 21.5 6 4.8 2.9 49230.3 50405.3 51358.5 52499.4 53899.4 -0.4 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 Forecast Tables Tucson MSA Arizona’s Economy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 33,932.8 34,958.1 36,654.2 39,014.3 -1.3 3.0 4.9 6.4 41,590.6 6.6 33,261 33,753 34,689 36,085 37,590 -2.3 1.5 2.8 4.0 4.2 10,446.5 11,266.4 12,084.9 12,970.0 13,734.9 -9.2 7.8 7.3 7.3 5.9 1,621.2 1,885.8 1,981.3 2,079.6 2,179.1 -10.0 16.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 6,593.7 6,914.2 7,451.7 8,040.6 8,540.0 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales -7.9 4.9 7.8 7.9 6.2 1,362.9 1,399.1 1,517.6 1,652.5 1,775.3 % change -4.1 2.7 8.5 8.9 7.4 Gasoline Sales 868.7 1,067.3 1,134.2 1,197.3 1,240.4 % change -22.4 22.9 6.3 5.6 3.6 361.8 357.8 365.1 379.6 395.2 -5.1 -1.1 2.0 4.0 4.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 -9.5 2.4 -2.0 -0.1 -0.6 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction 16.5 14.6 15.2 18.0 21.1 % change -27.6 -11.3 3.9 18.4 17.1 Manufacturing 25.1 25.0 25.4 26.4 27.2 % change -7.5 -0.6 1.7 3.6 3.4 58.1 57.7 59.0 61.4 63.5 -7.4 -0.7 2.3 4.0 3.5 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 -9.1 -0.8 3.6 2.0 1.2 47.3 44.1 44.3 46.1 49.1 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality -8.0 -6.7 0.5 4.1 6.5 38.8 38.4 39.7 41.5 43.1 % change -4.0 -1.0 3.6 4.5 3.7 Government 78.9 79.2 79.4 80.6 81.7 % change -1.2 0.4 0.2 1.5 1.5 1,020.2 1,035.7 1,056.6 1,081.2 1,106.4 1 2 2 2 2 2,090.0 2,877.5 5,358.8 7,156.1 7,918.4 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change -35 38 86 34 11 Single family 2,028.0 2,703.4 4,996.9 6,627.2 7,164.6 % change -26.1 33.3 84.8 32.6 8.1 Multi‐family 62.0 174.1 362.0 529.0 753.8 -87.0 180.8 107.9 46.1 42.5 376.9 379.6 380.7 383.4 386.0 % change Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change 14 5 1 0 1 1 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 -25.9 22 6 4.8 2.9 42009.6 42898.7 44004.6 45082.6 46409.5 -0.3 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.9 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 3,128.40 3,138.20 3,156.10 3,157.10 3,175.20 1.3 0.3 2,852.40 2,832.90 2,847.60 2,860.80 2,886.20 0.5 -2.1 276 305.3 308.5 296.3 289 9.1 31.5 9.2 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.5 5.6 31 2,416.50 2,370.00 2,393.30 2,400.30 2,419.80 -1.6 -6.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.9 0.9 -19.3 Construction 114.4 110.9 112.2 110.6 112.8 -14.9 -28.2 Durable Goods Manufacturing 116.8 114.8 115.6 115.6 115.2 -6.3 -11.6 Fabricated Metal Products 13 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 -13.5 -20.5 Computer and Electronic Prod. 35.6 35.4 35.3 35.3 35 -7.9 -10.2 Aerospace Products and Parts 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 -2.3 0.1 30.9 30.7 31.6 31.6 31.9 -0.3 -7.1 Wholesale Trade 102.5 102.1 103.3 103 103.8 3.1 -4.8 Retail Trade 304.3 295.9 295.4 297.3 298.6 0.6 -5.3 Utilities 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 -2.4 -2.4 Transportation and Warehousing 68.7 66.8 67.3 66.4 66.6 -3.6 -6.9 Information 37.8 37 37.2 37 37.9 -5 -7 Finance and Insurance 120 117.6 118.4 118.3 117.6 -2.7 -3 Non‐Durable Goods Manufacturing Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 45.4 44.5 44 43.8 44.3 -4.3 -8.2 346.2 335.9 336.8 340.2 344.1 -1.1 -8.3 52.2 50.8 52.7 52.9 53.6 11.2 6.7 285.5 282.9 281.6 282.8 283.3 1.6 1.6 34.7 33.3 33.5 33.5 34.2 1.8 -3.1 41.6 40.4 41.3 41.8 43.9 -4.1 -9.3 176.9 176 181.1 186.6 188.8 2.3 -2.6 Other Services 90.4 89.9 90.8 90.5 91.9 -2.6 -6.4 Federal Government 56.1 56.4 56.2 57.7 59.7 0.8 2.7 369.2 361.1 371.3 367.8 368.5 -3.3 -3.9 State and Local Government Education 201.9 194 205 201.7 202.7 -2.6 -3.2 Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC & EBR 38.8 39.3 38.9 39.2 39.5 3.1 -2.7 Construction 20.19 20.14 20.07 19.63 19.45 -1.5 3.1 Manufacturing 17.51 17.37 17.23 17.08 16.72 -3.5 1.8 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 15.29 16.29 16.26 16.27 16.46 8.4 5.2 Retail Trade 13.11 13.49 13.61 13.68 13.91 6.6 4.9 Wholesale Trade 21.29 23.72 23.18 23.12 23.69 15.1 7.2 Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC & EBR Arizona monthly data continued next page… All sources and abbreviations on page 17. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Arizona’s Economy Arizona ‐ Monthly , continued... Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. average Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 7,086,247 5,495,754 5,840,045 5,732,225 ... -6.3 -7.3 4,793,991 3,195,820 3,487,999 3,189,162 ... -16.8 -8.8 Food, EBR 980,901 990,590 994,044 995,548 ... -0.1 -0.2 Restaurants & Bars 742,924 747,499 826,131 900,645 ... 6.3 -3 Gasoline, EBR 568,430 561,846 531,870 646,870 ... 46.5 -13.9 223,510 214,592 209,085 233,755 ... -0.2 -1.7 Utilities 658,141 747,427 642,975 630,514 ... 4 0.3 Communications 170,828 272,847 263,281 972,553 ... 304.2 12.2 81,854 90,590 89,226 118,920 ... 6.4 -3.8 Rentals ‐ Personal Property 258,782 276,993 257,905 287,496 ... Contracting 790,388 578,660 623,599 689,242 ... -33 -39.6 Mining ‐ Metal, Oil & Gas 112,007 125,735 102,550 111,425 ... 230.6 23.7 Hotel/Motel 134,255 159,530 204,529 258,290 ... 7.3 -11.1 1,391 1,240 1,094 1,624 1,106 8.8 -11.6 1,117 975 1,050 1,385 1,059 5.3 9 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Amusements New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐4 Unit Structures 5‐plus Unit Structures 8 9 16 6 10 -9.1 -69.9 266 256 28 233 37 ... -69.5 3,076 2,493 2,714 4,135 3,974 36.9 63.2 2,483 1,932 2,132 3,454 3,346 37.8 64.5 Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 71 56 48 78 51 4.1 37.9 Chapter 13 519 505 534 603 577 36.4 60.4 Arizona ‐ Quarterly 09I 09 II 09 III 09 IV % change vs. year ago for most recent: 10I quarter 4‐QTR average Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 6,559.60 6,583.70 6,604.50 6,622.30 6,642.50 1.3 1.4 13.2 12.1 11.3 11.2 11.6 -12.2 -13.5 Births 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.9 -4.3 -6.3 Deaths 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.1 11.3 5.5 2.5 10.9 12 6.1 7.1 10.5 -3 -32.8 217,680 218,266 215,726 216,631 218,384 0.3 -2.1 153,286 151,900 149,394 149,504 150,374 -1.9 -4.8 17,370 17,335 17,056 17,020 17,232 -0.8 -2.6 Natural Increase Net Migrati on Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence 718 712 701 701 705 -1.8 -5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 40,968 39,533 39,064 39,346 39,005 -4.8 -7.7 Plus: Transfer Payments 40,078 43,457 43,624 44,100 45,532 13.6 14.6 Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries 111,793 110,825 108,613 108,496 109,233 -2.3 -5.4 Other Labor Income EBR 25,360 25,227 24,940 24,904 25,038 -1.3 -1.2 Proprietor's Income 15,962 15,795 15,942 16,281 ... -3 -7.2 -117.8 Farm -70 -13 -52 -1 ... -100.9 16,032 15,808 15,994 16,282 ... -2.4 -6 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 33,185 33,152 32,664 32,712 32,877 -0.9 -3.5 Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 44,134 44,768 44,445 44,819 ... 0.4 1 Nonfarm 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Travel and Tourism ‐ Monthly Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona 740,860 649,373 738,096 1,276,323 1,468,523 13.2 5.1 49,345 50,570 64,736 122,350 127,759 -11.8 -2.7 Scenic 238,236 208,241 210,100 472,843 550,218 12.4 -0.1 Water Based Recreation 453,279 390,562 463,260 681,130 790,546 19.3 9.4 187,463 272,863 304,291 476,043 308,023 -8.3 -8.1 38,801 50,205 55,621 66,258 28,352 -17.4 -7.8 135,609 201,633 219,242 356,386 239,724 -4.9 -9.8 13,053 21,025 29,428 53,399 39,947 -19.2 -0.3 -10.7 Historical Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP Passengers 1,542,429 1,388,629 1,286,079 1,407,291 1,276,113 -15.6 Pedestrians 821,918 638,533 609,447 714,607 617,967 -5.8 -19 Vehicles 659,721 614,223 565,470 634,697 582,402 -22.7 -6.8 Inflation and Prices ‐ Monthly Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Consumer Price Index (1982‐1984=100) BLS U.S. ‐ All Urban 215.9 216.7 216.7 217.6 218.0 U.S. ‐ Wage Earners 211.7 212.6 212.5 213.5 214.0 Inflation and Prices ‐ Quarterly 09I 09 II 09 III 09 IV 2.2 0.5 2.9 0.6 % change vs. year ago for most recent: quarter 4 –QTR avg. 10I Consumer Price index (1982‐84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) 216.8 218.8 219.9 219.8 220.3 1.6 0.0 U.S. ‐ All Urban Consumers 212.0 214.3 215.7 216.2 217.0 2.4 0.2 U.S. ‐ Urban Wage Earners 206.5 209.2 211.0 211.8 212.9 3.1 0.2 Gross Domestic Product 109.7 109.7 109.8 109.9 110.2 0.5 0.8 Personal Consumption Expenditures 108.4 108.8 109.5 110.2 110.6 2.0 0.6 Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOC: Arizona Department of Commerce ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C‐40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority * All Aggregate Retail Sales figures reported by EBR include retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17 Arizona’s Economy Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 2095.5 2105.1 2117.1 2121.1 2130.7 1.3 -0.1 1921.7 1912.5 1921.6 1933.6 1951.4 0.7 -2.5 173.8 192.6 195.5 187.5 179.3 8.4 34.3 8.5 8.4 9.3 8.8 8.9 7.2 34.3 1712.9 1679.9 1695.4 1701.8 1716.3 -1.7 -6.6 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 -12.5 -21.5 Construction 84.8 83.1 84.7 83.9 86.0 -13.6 -28.2 Durable Goods 86.0 84.1 84.9 84.8 84.7 -6.7 -12.6 Computer and Electronic Prod. 32.8 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.4 -6.1 -9.4 Aerospace Products and Parts Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 -6.3 -1.8 Non‐Durable Goods 24.0 23.8 24.1 24.1 24.1 -3.2 -6.9 Wholesale Trade 86.4 86.1 86.7 86.3 87.1 3.4 -3.6 213.5 208.2 208.2 209.8 211.0 1.2 -5.5 Retail Trade Utilities 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 -1.1 -2.8 Transportation and Warehousing 53.9 52.4 52.8 52.2 52.7 -2.4 -7.2 Information 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.8 -9.4 -7.3 103.0 101.3 101.6 101.5 101.2 -3.3 -3.8 34.7 33.3 33.0 32.7 32.9 -7.6 -9.7 276.2 267.3 267.4 270.6 273.9 -1.3 -8.7 8.1 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government 41.2 39.8 40.9 41.1 41.2 10.2 189.5 187.6 186.8 188.0 188.6 1.8 1.6 25.1 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.0 4.0 -3.6 25.6 25.3 25.9 26.1 27.4 -3.2 -9.8 121.5 120.2 124.2 128.1 129.9 1.6 -3.2 66.2 66.0 66.7 66.3 67.3 -2.3 -6.4 22.5 22.9 22.7 22.8 24.2 -1.2 -0.4 219.6 215.5 221.0 219.4 218.9 -3.4 -3.8 119.1 115.2 121.1 119.7 119.6 -2.3 -2.8 4,772,237 3,687,542 3,915,592 3,879,118 ... -6.1 -8.9 3,316,416 2,200,163 2,397,536 2,223,621 ... -16.6 -9.2 Food, EBR 577,200 600,117 602,209 603,120 ... 2.9 -7.7 Restaurants & Bars 526,354 536,586 582,527 644,494 ... 7.4 -2.8 Gasoline, EBR 352,267 350,677 333,320 407,883 ... 45.1 -16.7 Contracting 552,801 379,524 422,510 466,688 ... -34.2 -41.2 Hotel/Motel 84,711 111,926 132,028 179,227 ... 10.3 -12.4 838 902 806 1,171 673 -3.9 -17.3 Single Family Units 810 715 783 999 638 -7.7 17.1 2‐4 Unit Structures 0 7 12 4 6 -33.3 -77.3 28 180 11 168 29 ... -87.9 1,359,769 915,969 1,044,048 1,596,724 1,584,568 15.9 12.2 7,661 5,009 5,737 8,969 9,261 8.1 33.7 177,492 182,865 181,985 178,027 171,101 7.2 -16.8 ... 2.5 -1.7 ... -1.5 -6.1 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA 3,238,717 3,065,207 2,904,452 3,584,403 Total Passengers 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of40,106 Arizona 38,514 37,521 35,189 Total Aircraft Movements July 2010—Summer Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Quarterly 09I 09 II 09 III 09 IV % change vs. year ago for most recent 10I quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 4,335.10 4,353.80 4,373.40 4,408.40 4,408.40 1.7 1.9 10.3 10.1 10 9.9 9.5 -7.5 -7.5 Births 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.2 15.9 -5.6 -6.3 Deaths 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 -2.5 -4.3 8.8 8.6 9.6 25.1 -9.5 -209 -18.8 148,311 146,789 146,255 147,115 148,577 0.2 -3.6 110,519 108,787 107,929 108,285 108,559 -1.8 -5.9 12,282 12,109 12,023 12,058 12,089 -1.6 -5 -6.2 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence -176 -181 -185 -186 -190 -7.8 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 26,254 25,643 25,336 25,462 25,570 -2.6 -8.1 Plus: Transfer Payments 23,996 24,649 25,198 25,612 26,727 11.4 12.6 34,212 33,715 33,442 33,372 33,703 -1.5 -5.4 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Apache County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Apr 10 22,900 23,000 22,925 22,900 22,975 2.5 6.2 19,500 19,250 19,000 19,225 19,500 0 3.2 3,400 3,750 3,925 3,675 3,475 18.8 27 14.8 16.3 17.1 16 15.1 16 19.8 19,875 19,425 19,225 19,500 19,825 -1.4 -0.5 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 7,150 6,950 6,825 6,850 6,975 -5.7 -2.5 Goods‐Producing 600 550 550 550 550 -29 -31.6 Service‐Providing 19,275 18,875 18,675 18,950 19,275 -0.3 1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,025 1,925 1,875 1,900 1,925 -4.9 -0.3 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,525 4,475 4,400 4,400 4,500 -2.2 2.6 12,725 12,475 12,400 12,650 12,850 1.2 0.7 Federal Government 3,500 3,475 3,475 3,650 3,800 7 5.4 State and Local Government 9,225 9,000 8,925 9,000 9,050 -1.1 -0.9 13,976 12,266 12,425 8,274 ... -35.5 -5.6 7,757 6,494 6,927 3,060 ... -59.6 2.3 595 580 826 787 ... -6.7 -3.3 5,624 5,192 4,672 4,426 ... 0.5 -15.1 -1.7 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,211 1,983 1,837 1,599 ... -31.5 Contracting 6,591 2,123 6,238 4,648 ... 3.7 -8.8 Hotel/Motel 625 631 573 865 ... 1.6 -10.8 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 Arizona’s Economy Tucson MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 488.8 490.2 494 491.6 494.8 1.8 1.4 449.1 446.2 450 449.6 454.3 1.2 -0.7 39.7 44 44 42 40.5 8.9 30.8 8.2 8.3 9 8.6 8.8 7.3 28.4 362.1 354.3 358.8 358.6 361.7 -1.1 -4.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 0 -8 Construction 14.9 14.2 14.1 13.9 14.1 -15.6 -26 Manufacturing 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.2 -3.6 -6.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 0.8 2.4 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 -2.4 -10.3 41.7 40.2 39.9 40.3 40.6 0.2 -5.7 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities 9 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.6 -3.4 -5.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 -8.2 -9.8 Financial Activities 17.7 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 1.2 2.2 Professional and Business Services 47.6 46.5 47.4 47.6 48.1 1.9 -6 Educational and Health Services 59.3 59.1 59.2 59.3 59.9 2.7 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 -4.2 -7.2 Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 6 5.8 6 6.1 6.2 -6.1 -10.9 28 27.9 28.6 29.1 29.2 2.5 -1.2 Other Services 14.4 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.4 -2.7 -5.7 Federal Government 11.9 12.1 12 12.1 12.4 0.8 6.4 State and Local Government 68.1 65.4 67.9 66.6 67.5 -3 -3.9 44 41.4 44.1 42.7 43.5 -1.8 -2.3 Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 1,100,894 828,959 896,784 886,955 ... -0.3 -5.1 Retail 766,706 474,850 526,643 499,986 ... -11.1 -5.5 Food, EBR 137,098 157,806 158,357 158,596 ... 13.9 -5 Restaurants & Bars 113,523 112,990 131,092 134,259 ... 4 -2.6 83,567 83,312 80,691 94,114 ... 59.5 -5.6 Contracting 98,117 90,603 95,801 98,908 ... -30.9 -37.6 Hotel/Motel 19,081 22,057 37,157 33,844 ... -2.8 -9.2 177 201 200 227 241 39.3 2.4 165 179 179 211 233 36.3 5.4 12 22 21 16 8 300 -32.4 179,305 143,268 145,233 235,799 245,383 36.4 4.4 886 712 741 1,169 1,227 30.7 17 202,376 201,219 195,996 201,710 199,986 4.4 -10.2 304,875 291,292 307,270 367,434 329,371 2 -5.8 13,835 13,865 13,591 15,248 15,607 0.9 -11.7 Gasoline, EBR New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements 20 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Tucson MSA ‐ Quarterly 09I 09 II 09 III 09 IV % change vs. year ago for most recent 10I quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 1,015.60 1,018.60 1,022.20 1,029.00 1,029.00 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.9 -1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 0.9 -2.2 Natural Increase Births Deaths 1.3 2 2 1.9 1.9 2 -1.1 -3.1 1.2 1.7 2.2 5.4 -1.4 -214 64.9 33,842 33,781 33,885 34,223 34,958 3.3 0 21,076 20,857 20,778 20,904 21,126 0.2 -3.3 2,421 2,401 2,395 2,408 2,434 0.5 -2.2 194 192 191 191 193 -0.6 -3.2 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 7,574 7,481 7,456 7,526 7,653 1 -4.4 Plus: Transfer Payments 7,418 7,653 7,855 8,009 8,419 13.5 14.4 33,323 33,163 33,148 33,260 33,974 2 -1.3 Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Cochise County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 62,975 63,575 63,375 63,100 63,175 1.2 3 58,450 58,475 58,050 58,050 58,375 0.5 1.6 4,525 5,100 5,325 5,050 4,800 11.6 22.7 7.2 8 8.4 8 7.6 10.3 19.3 -2.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 37,325 37,125 36,925 37,025 37,175 -0.9 Total Private 24,825 24,600 24,475 24,600 24,675 -1.5 -4 Goods‐Producing 2,175 2,100 2,050 2,050 2,075 -3.5 -15.6 Mining and Construction 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,450 1,475 -3.3 -16.5 Manufacturing 625 600 600 600 600 -4 -13.5 Service‐Providing 35,150 35,025 34,875 34,975 35,100 -0.8 -1.5 -4.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,375 6,200 6,200 6,250 6,325 1.6 Information 650 650 625 625 625 -3.8 8 Financial Activities 975 975 975 975 950 0 -6.2 Professional and Business Services 5,550 5,650 5,600 5,600 5,600 -4.3 -1.9 Educational and Health Services 4,375 4,400 4,400 4,450 4,400 2.3 1.6 Leisure and Hospitality 3,850 3,775 3,775 3,800 3,850 -4.3 -5.2 875 850 850 850 850 -5.6 -5.8 12,500 12,525 12,450 12,425 12,500 0.2 0.9 Federal Government 5,275 5,275 5,225 5,225 5,300 3.9 4.7 State and Local Government 7,225 7,250 7,225 7,200 7,200 -2.4 -1.7 Other Services Government Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail 100,680 79,614 84,804 78,430 ... -8.7 -3.7 Retail 77,288 57,126 60,686 51,981 ... -19.7 -1.9 Restaurants & Bars 10,347 9,598 12,043 12,709 ... 5.4 0.7 Gasoline, EBR 13,045 12,891 12,075 13,740 ... 51.6 -15.2 Gallons (000s) ADOT 5,129 4,924 4,747 4,965 ... 3.3 -1.9 Contracting 25,282 16,647 16,521 19,027 ... 30.3 -15.7 Hotel/Motel 2,765 2,892 4,924 4,544 ... 8.8 -6.8 125 12 11 37 29 12 11 37 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 33 43.5 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 33 43.5 21 55.5 19.2 Arizona’s Economy Coconino County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 75,800 75,400 75,700 75,600 75,900 2.3 2.4 69,500 68,300 68,600 68,800 69,600 0.3 0.3 6,300 7,100 7,100 6,800 6,300 31.3 33.9 8.3 9.4 9.4 9 8.3 28.3 30.7 -3.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 62,100 60,100 60,700 60,900 61,600 -1.6 Total Private 42,900 41,300 41,500 41,800 42,500 1.7 -2.8 Goods‐Producing 5,600 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 -11.9 -14.7 Mining and Construction 1,900 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,500 -31.8 -32.2 Manufacturing 3,700 3,600 3,700 3,700 3,700 0 -1.8 Service‐Providing 56,500 54,900 55,500 55,700 56,400 -0.5 -2.5 10,100 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 3.2 -0.3 400 300 300 300 400 0 -6.3 Financial Activities 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,400 0 -11.8 Professional and Business Services 2,700 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,500 -10.7 -11.8 Educational and Health Services 8,000 7,900 7,900 8,000 7,900 2.6 3.1 12,800 12,500 12,700 12,900 13,300 9.9 1.3 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,000 0 -3.3 19,200 18,800 19,200 19,100 19,100 -8.2 -5.7 2,800 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,100 -3.1 2.5 16,400 16,100 16,400 16,200 16,000 -9.1 -7.1 132,726 92,330 101,847 85,551 ... -24.1 -7.7 Retail 93,171 58,215 67,127 42,021 ... -44.2 -8.4 Restaurants & Bars 21,945 18,082 20,463 25,536 ... 7 -4.4 Gasoline, EBR 17,610 16,033 14,257 17,994 ... 32.8 -9.4 6,924 6,124 5,605 6,502 ... -9.5 5.9 Contracting 17,319 13,528 14,431 23,345 ... -4.3 -33.6 Hotel/Motel 11,910 7,615 9,704 16,126 ... 5.5 -5.4 6 57 7 17 21 133.3 149 6 1 7 17 21 133.3 -35.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 22 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Gila County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 23,025 22,925 22,800 22,550 22,725 -2.3 1.5 20,625 20,225 20,100 19,975 20,300 -3 -1.8 2,400 2,700 2,700 2,575 2,425 4.3 40.4 10.4 11.8 11.8 11.4 10.7 6.7 38.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 13,850 13,450 13,375 13,350 13,575 -4.7 -6 Total Private 8,750 8,450 8,450 8,525 8,550 -5.5 -7.9 Goods‐Producing 2,225 2,175 2,150 2,175 2,200 -8.3 -15.2 Service‐Providing 11,625 11,275 11,225 11,175 11,375 -4 -3.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,275 2,175 2,150 2,175 2,100 -8.7 -2.7 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,250 4,100 4,150 4,175 4,250 -2.3 -6.3 Government 5,100 5,000 4,925 4,825 5,025 -3.4 -2.3 450 450 450 500 500 -4.8 3 4,650 4,550 4,475 4,325 4,525 -3.2 -2.8 33,609 24,422 29,046 21,184 ... -27.6 -12.1 23,672 15,901 19,829 10,284 ... -49.8 -13.1 Restaurants & Bars 4,334 3,199 4,193 4,459 ... -1.9 -5.1 Gasoline, EBR 5,603 5,321 5,023 6,442 ... 52 -13.7 2,203 2,032 1,975 2,328 ... 3.6 2.7 Contracting 5,274 8,055 4,053 5,639 ... -4.1 -30.2 Hotel/Motel 632 529 629 871 ... 16.7 -21.6 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Graham County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 14,800 14,600 14,800 14,700 15,100 0.5 -7.8 12,800 12,350 12,550 12,575 13,125 1.5 -13.2 2,000 2,250 2,250 2,125 1,975 -6 44.9 13.5 15.4 15.2 14.5 13.1 -6.4 56.1 8,225 7,750 7,925 8,000 8,425 0 -6.7 5,150 5,025 5,050 5,100 5,300 0 -11.5 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private Goods‐Producing 950 925 925 925 1,000 -4.8 -24.7 Service‐Providing 7,275 6,825 7,000 7,075 7,425 0.7 -3.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,475 1,400 1,425 1,450 1,525 7 -8.1 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,725 2,700 2,700 2,725 2,775 -1.8 -7.5 Government 3,075 2,725 2,875 2,900 3,125 0 3.5 425 425 425 450 450 12.5 5.1 2,650 2,300 2,450 2,450 2,675 -1.8 3.2 22,413 18,272 20,034 18,184 ... -7.5 -16.7 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 17,546 13,777 15,303 13,313 ... -17.2 -20.3 Restaurants & Bars 2,123 1,624 1,915 1,920 ... -7.6 -11.9 Gasoline, EBR 2,743 2,871 2,816 2,952 ... 96.2 7.8 1,079 1,097 1,107 1,067 ... 33.7 23.5 2,441 2,208 347 1,156 ... -57.6 -54.9 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 23 Arizona’s Economy Greenlee County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Dec 09 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 4,150 3,950 4,025 3,975 4,150 -4 -4 3,575 3,425 3,500 3,500 3,650 1.4 -13.2 Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jan 10 575 525 525 475 500 -31 97.2 13.9 13.3 13 11.9 12 -28.1 102.5 3,025 3,050 3,100 3,125 3,175 2.4 -37.5 -42.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 2,500 2,500 2,550 2,575 2,600 1 Goods‐Producing 2,025 2,025 2,075 2,100 2,125 3.7 -46 Service‐Providing 1,000 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,050 0 -9.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 200 200 225 200 225 0 -18.1 Other Private Service‐Providing 275 275 250 275 250 -16.7 -21.6 Government 525 550 550 550 575 9.5 2.3 Federal Government 25 25 25 50 50 100 20 500 525 525 500 525 5 1.2 8,814 8,579 8,841 9,866 ... 33.6 -55 7,981 7,737 7,929 8,924 ... 34.3 -56.6 Restaurants & Bars 281 302 354 380 ... 4.3 -30.2 Gasoline, EBR 552 540 557 563 ... 48.1 -39.5 217 206 219 203 ... 0.9 -28.2 Contracting 754 598 602 994 ... 57.8 -87.3 Hotel/Motel 307 352 521 663 ... 21.6 -33.5 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT La Paz County Dec 09 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 8,000 8,000 7,950 7,900 7,750 2.3 4.1 7,300 7,200 7,175 7,200 7,100 2.5 3.6 700 800 775 700 650 0 9.9 8.8 10 9.7 8.9 8.4 -2.3 5.5 5,000 5,050 5,075 5,050 5,050 5.2 -0.7 2,650 2,725 2,725 2,700 2,675 5.9 0.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private Goods‐Producing 200 200 175 175 175 -22.2 -28.2 Service‐Providing 4,800 4,850 4,900 4,875 4,875 6.6 0.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,250 1,275 1,300 1,275 1,250 11.1 5.3 Other Private Service‐Providing 1,200 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 6.4 1.4 Government 2,350 2,325 2,350 2,350 2,375 4.4 -1.5 325 325 325 350 375 25 2.6 2,025 2,000 2,025 2,000 2,000 1.3 -2.1 21,630 27,429 24,056 17,983 ... -9.3 -5.4 -2.9 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 11,866 16,507 14,535 7,007 ... -37.4 Restaurants & Bars 2,046 2,945 2,890 2,190 ... -27.1 1 Gasoline, EBR 7,718 7,978 6,631 8,786 ... 56.3 -10.5 3,035 3,047 2,607 3,175 ... 6.5 1.1 2,224 1,910 2,248 1,680 ... -55.1 -19.7 454 729 569 501 ... -2.6 4.7 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting 24 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Mohave County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Apr 10 91,200 91,800 92,200 92,600 92,300 0.4 82,000 81,500 81,900 82,700 82,900 0.2 -0.7 -2.5 9,200 10,300 10,300 9,900 9,400 2.2 17.8 10.1 11.2 11.2 10.7 10.2 1.7 18.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 46,500 45,800 46,000 46,500 46,800 -1.3 -6.1 Total Private 38,300 37,600 37,400 37,700 38,100 -1.3 -6.9 Goods‐Producing 5,500 5,400 5,400 5,400 5,400 -10 -23.4 2,700 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 -16.1 -30.2 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 -3.4 -15.3 Service‐Providing 41,000 40,400 40,600 41,100 41,400 0 -3.1 10,900 10,600 10,500 10,600 10,600 -0.9 -6.4 800 800 800 800 900 0 -4.6 Financial Activities 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,600 -5.9 -12 Professional and Business Services 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,100 3,200 0 -4.9 Educational and Health Services 8,000 7,900 7,900 8,000 8,000 5.3 3 Leisure and Hospitality 6,000 5,900 5,900 6,100 6,300 1.6 0.5 Other Services 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 -8.7 -8.4 Government 8,200 8,200 8,600 8,800 8,700 -1.1 -2.5 500 500 500 800 600 -14.3 4.8 7,700 7,700 8,100 8,000 8,100 0 -3 151,792 122,617 137,554 156,993 ... 10.9 -5.3 114,587 86,014 99,149 111,079 ... 5.1 -4.8 Restaurants & Bars 15,371 15,002 18,004 19,322 ... 4.4 -1 Gasoline, EBR 21,834 21,601 20,401 26,593 ... 52.7 -10 8,585 8,250 8,020 9,610 ... 4 4 Contracting 23,515 14,541 23,843 17,724 ... -46.9 -22.7 Hotel/Motel 2,482 1,656 3,626 4,545 ... 22.8 -2.7 34 17 16 26 22 29.4 -31.6 28 17 16 26 20 17.6 -26.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 25 Arizona’s Economy Navajo County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Apr 10 40,800 40,775 40,850 40,850 40,650 0.4 3.2 34,925 34,300 34,225 34,500 34,525 -1.8 -0.3 5,875 6,475 6,625 6,350 6,125 15.6 30.5 14.4 15.9 16.2 15.5 15.1 15.1 26.5 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 27,050 26,375 26,475 26,700 26,700 -3.4 -4.6 Total Private 16,825 16,275 16,175 16,150 16,250 -3.6 -5.4 Goods‐Producing 1,675 1,550 1,500 1,475 1,475 -29.8 -29.5 1,225 1,100 1,100 1,075 1,075 -29.5 -29.4 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 450 450 400 400 400 -30.4 -29.7 Service‐Providing 25,375 24,825 24,975 25,225 25,225 -1.3 -2.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,400 5,150 5,100 5,125 5,175 2 -1.7 Information 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 2.4 4 Financial Activities 450 450 450 450 450 -5.3 -11.8 Professional and Business Services 975 950 950 950 950 -9.5 -10.5 Educational and Health Services 3,625 3,600 3,625 3,650 3,625 2.8 3.8 Leisure and Hospitality 2,900 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,775 -2.6 -1.6 725 700 725 725 725 0 -6.3 -3.3 Other Services Government 10,225 10,100 10,300 10,550 10,450 -3.2 Federal Government 1,725 1,625 1,650 1,800 1,950 6.8 4.2 State and Local Government 8,500 8,475 8,650 8,750 8,500 -5.3 -4.8 82,196 72,205 64,182 64,291 ... -10.5 -12.7 64,156 55,635 47,579 45,201 ... -18.7 -12.5 -6.4 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars 5,954 5,511 6,515 6,474 ... -3 12,086 11,059 10,088 12,616 ... 31.5 -17 4,752 4,224 3,966 4,559 ... -10.4 -3.6 Contracting 7,807 7,486 -5,735 3,526 ... -61.9 -35.6 Hotel/Motel 1,913 1,579 1,966 2,176 ... -9.6 -18.2 6 3 2 5 7 -12.5 -53.3 6 3 2 5 7 -12.5 -53.3 Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 26 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Santa Cruz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 17,900 17,875 17,950 17,725 17,700 -3.8 -0.1 15,300 15,150 15,250 15,100 15,100 -7.1 -3.8 2,600 2,725 2,700 2,625 2,600 20.9 26.4 14.5 15.2 15 14.8 14.7 25.7 26.6 12,525 12,325 12,425 12,350 12,350 -8.9 -8.2 8,650 8,500 8,550 8,475 8,525 -11.2 -11.4 Goods‐Producing 750 775 775 775 775 -6.1 -20 Service‐Providing Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 11,775 11,550 11,650 11,575 11,575 -9 -7.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,000 4,875 4,900 4,900 4,950 -12.4 -10.8 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,900 2,850 2,875 2,800 2,800 -10.4 -9.8 Government 3,875 3,825 3,875 3,875 3,825 -3.2 0 Federal Government 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,575 1,500 -3.2 3.2 State and Local Government 2,325 2,275 2,325 2,300 2,325 -3.1 -2 44,746 29,676 31,098 33,015 ... 5.1 -8.1 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 36,404 19,972 22,883 22,851 ... -1.8 -10.5 Restaurants & Bars 2,710 4,785 3,985 4,843 ... 22.2 -2.7 Gasoline, EBR 5,632 4,919 4,231 5,320 ... 27.7 2.1 Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,215 1,879 1,663 1,922 ... -13 11.7 Contracting 5,117 4,343 5,090 6,161 ... -3.7 -45.8 Hotel/Motel 1,131 861 1,693 1,404 ... 29.1 -9.6 6 7 4 10 6 -40 -48.9 6 7 4 10 6 -40 -47.8 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 27 Arizona’s Economy Yavapai County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Apr 10 98,300 98,700 99,200 99,000 99,500 0.8 0.4 89,200 88,300 88,900 89,000 90,000 0.4 -2.1 9,100 10,400 10,300 10,000 9,500 4.4 30.4 9.3 10.5 10.4 10.1 9.5 3.6 29.8 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 56,100 55,000 55,600 55,800 56,300 -1.4 -6.5 Total Private 45,000 44,000 44,200 44,300 44,700 -1.3 -7.1 Goods‐Producing 7,400 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 -10 -19.8 4,900 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 -11.3 -22.3 -14.6 Mining and Construction Manufacturing 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 -7.4 Service‐Providing 48,700 47,800 48,400 48,600 49,100 0 -4 11,900 11,600 11,600 11,600 11,600 0 -4.2 -14.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 500 500 500 500 500 0 Financial Activities 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 -9.4 Professional and Business Services 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 -8.1 -10.8 Educational and Health Services 10,700 10,500 10,600 10,600 10,700 2.9 1.3 Leisure and Hospitality 7,100 6,900 7,000 7,100 7,300 1.4 -5.6 Other Services 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 5 -2 -4.2 Government 11,100 11,000 11,400 11,500 11,600 -1.7 Federal Government 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,500 -6.3 0 State and Local Government 9,800 9,700 10,100 10,000 10,100 -1 -4.8 160,647 121,681 130,474 108,472 ... -22.2 -10.6 122,400 85,726 92,927 64,256 ... -38.4 -12.2 Restaurants & Bars 19,037 17,477 20,398 22,596 ... 3.1 -5.5 Gasoline, EBR 19,210 18,478 17,149 21,621 ... 63.8 -7 7,553 7,058 6,741 7,813 ... 11.6 6.6 Contracting 25,094 19,501 20,645 19,797 ... -41.9 -45.8 Hotel/Motel 4,872 4,261 5,737 8,471 ... 0.8 -13.9 151 16 15 73 25 4.2 -4.4 19 16 15 22 23 -4.2 -26.3 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 28 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona July 2010—Summer Issue Yuma County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent Apr 10 month 12‐mo. average 84,200 82,500 83,200 83,600 87,700 0.2 1.3 Employment 68,400 65,900 66,700 67,000 66,300 -3.8 -2.5 Unemployment 15,800 16,600 16,500 16,600 21,400 15.1 17 18.8 20.1 19.8 19.9 24.4 14.8 15.5 -7.2 Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 49,800 48,400 49,300 49,700 49,100 -4.1 Total Private 35,100 34,200 34,400 34,700 34,300 -5.8 -9.6 Goods‐Producing 4,500 4,400 4,500 4,500 4,500 -8.2 -24.3 Mining and Construction 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 -12.9 -26.3 Manufacturing 1,800 1,700 1,800 1,800 1,800 0 -20.6 Service‐Providing 45,300 44,000 44,800 45,200 44,600 -3.7 -5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,700 9,300 9,300 9,400 9,200 -7.1 -11.8 Information 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0 -1.5 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0 -0.5 Professional and Business Services 4,400 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,100 -10.9 -8.8 Educational and Health Services 6,700 6,600 6,600 6,700 6,600 1.5 1.2 Leisure and Hospitality 4,900 4,800 4,900 5,000 5,000 -9.1 -8.8 Other Services 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 -5.6 -6.5 14,700 14,200 14,900 15,000 14,800 0 -0.9 Government Federal Government 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,800 3,800 5.6 4.4 11,000 10,500 11,200 11,200 11,000 -1.8 -2.6 173,284 137,495 149,829 130,078 ... -15.6 -10 134,040 97,704 108,947 85,581 ... -25.9 -10 Restaurants & Bars 18,305 18,816 20,924 20,676 ... 1.8 -7.2 Gasoline, EBR 20,939 20,975 19,958 23,821 ... 30.7 -11.9 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 8,233 8,011 7,846 8,608 ... -10.9 -2.1 Contracting 18,053 17,594 17,004 19,950 ... -45.7 -35.7 Hotel/Motel 3,372 4,445 5,404 5,053 ... -10.4 -10.8 45 23 30 52 74 54.2 2.8 45 23 30 52 74 54.2 -6.4 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 29 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108 Phone: 520-621-2155 Fax: 520-621-2150 E-mail: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu Marshall J. Vest Director (520) 621-4075 mvest@eller.arizona.edu Alberta Charney, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 621-2291 acharney@eller.arizona.edu THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit: ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic data and objective forecasts and analyses. Copyright 2010 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The University of Arizona. Visit us online at ebr.eller.arizona.edu! Pia Montoya Database Specialist (520) 621-2523 pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu Lora Mwaniki-Lyman Research Economist (520) 626-6439 loramwa@eller.arizona.edu Maile L. 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