April 2010—Spring Issue Recession Is Over: Let the Recovery Begin! By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director March 1, 2009 in at least 50 years). During 2009, personal income in current dollars declined -- the first time ever (data stretching back to 1950). State tax receipts, which are based on sales taxes and income taxes, fell by nearly one-third. In recent rankings among states, Arizona has fallen near the bottom or even last on measure after measure. Recent Evidence Inside This Issue: Here’s some of the recent evidence. Nonfarm jobs, a comprehensive measure of employment, stopped falling in December. Seasonally adjusted, employment now rests at 2.4 million, down nearly 300,000 from its August 2007 peak (Exhibit 1). RECESSION IS OVER: LET RECOVERY BEGIN Marshall J. Vest WHAT WILL IT COST IF ARIZONA VOTERS REJECT THE ONE‐CENT SALES TAX HIKE? 4 Alberta H. Charney, Ph. D. Not all employment sectors Therefore, it comes with great have stabilized. Construction, accommodations, food and relief that Arizona’s recession drinking places, financial serhas come to an end. It will take several more months be- vices, information, computer fore recovery becomes evident. and non-durable manufacturSome six months have passed ing, and state and local govSome components will consince the U.S. recession came to tinue to decline for a few ernment payrolls continued to an end. Recent data show that more months. And it will take move lower as 2009 came to the recession in Arizona came to years to repair all the damage an end. Sectors that have an end as 2010 began. Emthat’s been done to the econ- turned the corner and are now ployment is no longer falling, omy. But at least economic growing include aerospace retail sales are increasing, per- conditions are now getting manufacturing, wholesale sonal income has stabilized, and better. trade, employment services, housing markets are in the early stages of recovery. It will be Exhibit 1: Employment Has Stabilized several months before it feels like things are getting better, Nonfarm Jobs, Arizona thousands and it will take years to repair seasonally adjusted 2700 all the damage that’s been annual rate (m/m), smoothed (R) done. But the business cycle has turned up once again – and 2600 that’s the best news we’ve had for a long time. 2500 The “Great Recession” hit Arizona hard. From the third quarter of 2007 through yearend 2009 (nearly 2-1/2 years), Arizona lost one in every nine jobs. Unemployment topped 9%, up from 3.5% only two years earlier. Population recorded the smallest numerical increase in 20 years (and the smallest percentage increase 1 ARIZONA’S 2009 EXPORTS REFLECT RECESSIONARY ENVIRONMENT 6 Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman and Ruth Christopherson ECONOMIC FORECAST DATA 12 AZ ECONOMIC INDICATORS 16 percent change 10 5 0 2400 number (L) 2300 -5 2200 -10 2100 2000 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 -15 Arizona’s Economy Exhibit 2: No Growth in High Tech During the Past Decade mining, health care and social services, and the large professional and business services sector. High Tech Employment, Arizona thousands 250 total 200 services 150 100 manufacturing 50 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 0 Exhibit 3: Mobility Is Currently at Decades’ Low Components of Population, Arizona annual change 200 150 net migration 100 50 natural increase 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 0 News releases of firms hiring workers have improved significantly in recent months. Several manufacturers have announced expansions or new openings in the 200-500 worker range, including three related to solar energy, two related to auto parts, and a biopharmaceutical manufacturing firm. The Census Bureau also is hiring thousands of temporary workers to conduct the decennial census and that will boost payrolls through mid year. The current crop of announcements is the strongest we’ve seen in some time. Recently, detailed data became available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that allows analysis of detailed high-tech employment (on a monthly basis) and wages (on a quarterly basis) back to 1990. These data, known as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) are based on unemployment insurance data that covers approximately 95% of total employment. Using the most recent data available (second quarter 2009) we see that high-tech employment statewide has lost ground in the past several months, and is lower than levels reached during the technology boom in 2000. During the second quarter 2009, the number of high-tech jobs statewide stands at 225,000, representing 11.2% of nonfarm jobs (Exhibit 2). The composition of high-tech jobs continues to shift from manufacturing to services. Manufacturing now represents only 75,000 of the total, and is 25% below its year 2000 peak. At this level, it is the lowest since the beginning of our data, which dates to 1990. Services-related high-tech jobs number 160,000, accounting for twothirds of total high-tech. That compares to 43% of the total in 1990. During the Great Recession, service-related employment dropped by 10,100, or 6.5%. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, Arizona’s population added 96,000 new residents in 2009, an increase of 1.5%. Over half of the gain came from natural increase (52,200, i.e., births minus deaths), and the remainder from net migration (44,200). Normally, net migration is 2-3 times larger than natural increase. Migration flows should improve dramatically in coming months as the economy gains strength (Exhibit 3). Even though net migration is still positive, household formation is likely very close to zero (or possibly negative). During times of economic hardship, family members return home or families double up into one household. An excellent indicator of household formation, electric utility residential customer data, has flattened out in recent months, barely registering growth. This will improve as the economy strengthens. Aggregate personal income stabilized in the 2nd and 3rd 2 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Exhibit 4: Personal Income Is No Longer Declining quarters of 2009. That followed large losses in the prior three quarters (Exhibit 4). Residential building permits, an important leading indicator, bottomed in March 2009 and have increased by more than 70% statewide through December. The percentage change is large since the base is so small, but the actual numbers remain at very low levels -- less than a 20,000 annual rate. Multifamily construction is near zero (Exhibit 5). Personal Income Growth, Arizona current dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate percent change 20 15 3‐period centered moving average Recent gains brought to a halt the outsized decline of nearly 90% from peak 2005 levels. Anecdotally, we’ve heard that builders have begun hiring once again. But, we don’t expect much upside potential until the inventory of vacant homes, estimated at 120,000 statewide, is absorbed. It will likely be 2014 before homebuilding tops 60,000 again. Existing home sales as recorded by realtor data have rebounded sharply. Driven by investor demand and federal tax credits for homebuyers, sales in Phoenix have soared to levels nearly as high as reached during 2005. “Flipping” is once again in the vocabulary with stories of investors buying at auction, making repairs, and reselling for handsome profits (Exhibit 6). 10 5 0 -5 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 -10 09 Although foreclosures and short sales remain painfully high for current homeowners, resetting the basis for properties is necessary before housing markets can heal. The flow of private capital into housing is very good news indeed. Housing prices are no longer falling, according to industry measures. In metro Phoenix, realtor data for the median price of homes sold bottomed in May 2009. Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller index of housing prices, an index of repeat sales, shows prices increasing at a 17% annual rate since bottoming in June (Exhibit 7) Exhibit 5: Homebuilding Is Off the Bottom Building Permits, Arizona seasonally adjusted annual rate thousands 100 total Consumer data also is looking much better. Retail sales statewide are now growing at a 5% annual rate since bottoming in June 2009. We expect a 5% increase this year, followed by a 10% gain next (Exhibit 8). 80 60 The Outlook single family Evidence continues to build that the recession in Arizona has run its course. That sets the stage for a resumption of growth in 2010 as the recovery stage of the business cycle begins. Although we expect to see large percentage increases in some measures, it will be years before the economy transitions from recovery into expansion mode. Because of the damage that has been done to the supply chain, we could see a temporary jump in prices for some commodities such as lumber and metals as well as for final goods. 40 20 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 0 Arizona’s Economy Exhibit 6: Private Capital Is Flowing Into Housing Phoenix Outlook, Cont... Existing Home Sales, MLS thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate Tucson 110 20 100 18 PHX 90 16 80 14 70 12 60 50 40 This will be a signal for producers to expand output, and that’s good news for business investment spending and hiring. We expect a slow recovery, similar to the periods following the past two recessions. Recovery will be constrained by the drag from commercial real estate markets and the public sector. Governments at the state and local levels will struggle to balance budgets for the next 3 years or more, and the inability to provide infrastructure and favorable outcomes for our public schools will retard economic development. Nevertheless, Arizona will accelerate again and is expected to move back into the top tier of fastestgrowing states in a couple of years. 10 TUS 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 8 What Will It Cost If Arizona Voters Reject the One-Cent Sales Tax Hike? By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D. Exhibit 7: Housing Prices Are Rising Median Price of Homes Sold, MLS seasonally adjusted, smoothed $ thousands, 300 250 200 150 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 100 Arizona voters will be asked to approve a temporary one-cent increase in sales taxes on May 18, 2010. This will raise nearly $1 billion of the $3 billion budget gap projected for fiscal year 2010-11. What if voters reject this referendum? What’s the effect on the economy? The answer is a two-sided coin. According to estimates from the Governor’s office, the tax will raise $918 million annually, thereby draining that same amount from private-sector spending. But those dollars don’t disappear. Government doesn’t bury (or burn or flush) the proceeds – it spends those dollars and thereby pumps money right back into the economy. That spending by the public sector adds to aggregate demand just as private sector spending does. So what’s the value of public spending – and how does it compare in magnitude? Using a model that tracks the flow of dollars through the economy as they are spent and re-spent many times over, we find that the cost of increasing the sales tax by one cent, as measured by lost jobs, is less than 7,400i. If the measure fails, the Governor has proposed some $867.5 million in spending cuts. Those cuts will trig- 4 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue ger a loss of federal matching dollars totaling an additional $442.5 million. After careful analysis of detailed agency budgets that show how dollars are spent, we find that the proposed cuts will cost 20,500 jobsii. Approving the sales tax increase will save over 13,000 jobs! Exhibit 8: Employment Recovery Will be Slow Retail Sales, Arizona seasonally adjusted annual rate $ billions 60 Why the big difference, you may ask? Obviously, the loss in federal matching dollars substantially contributes to the finding that job losses are larger with expenditure cuts than with a sales tax increase. But even without the federal matching money, expenditure cuts reduce jobs substantially more than comparably sized tax increases. There are three major reasons why a cut in government expenditures result in a larger economic impact than an increase in the sales tax rate. 55 50 45 First, the government is a service provider and, generally, services employ more persons per $1 million of expenditures than do non-services providers. Consequently, a larger portion of government expenditures is paid as labor income than most sectors of the economy. Sometimes the state government provides services directly, such as parts of 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 higher education, sometimes the state government subsidizes other government entities to provide the services, such as K-12 education, and often the state government contracts with private entities to provide services, such as health care, day care, and social service providers. 40 35 07 08 09 30 “If the measure fails, the Governor has Second, from the taxation side, a portion of the sales tax is paid by out-of-state visitors, so only slightly under 90 percent of the tax is paid by Arizona residents. proposed some $867.5 Third, the sales tax is imposed primarily on the sale of tangible goods, rather than services. Very few of the good purchased by Arizona consumers are produced in Arizona. For most sales, only the retail margin (the difference between final sale price and the wholesale cost of the item) is retained in the state. Retail margins can be as low as 27 percent of the total sales price for purchases made at general merchandise stores. cuts. Those cuts will million in spending trigger a loss of federal matching dollars totaling an additional $442.5 million... these i A widely-quoted number citing the Goldwater Institute as the source estimates that the sales tax will cost 14,400 jobs. We are unable to replicate that number and find the impact to be only half that amount. See A. Charney, “A Technical Note: Comparison of UA, REMI and STAMP Simulations of Tax/Spending Increases.” March 30, 2010. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona. proposed cuts will cost 20,500 jobs. Approving the sales tax increase will save over 13,000 ii Excluding the federal matching dollars, the job loss totals over 14,000. For more details of the methods used of the study, see A. Charney, “Comparison of Tax Increase vs. Government Spending Cuts.” March 19, 2010. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, University. jobs! www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 Arizona’s Economy Arizona’s 2009 Exports Reflect Recessionary Environment By Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman and Ruth Christopherson Introduction Arizona exports to the world dropped by 29 percent in 2009 from $19.7 billion in 2008 to $14 billion (Graph 1). This was more than the national decline in total global exports of 19 percent, placing Arizona 25th among all states in total exports for 2009 compared to 21st in 2008. Since the recession officially began in December 2007, exports have been one of Arizona’s bright spots, but they saw a steep decline in 2007. The state was one of the hardest hit by the housing market crisis which led to the nation-wide recession. In 2009, Arizona ranked 2nd among all states in the rate of foreclosures and has lost over 300,000 nonfarm jobs since the recession began1. This is the first year, however, that state exports have reflected the economic downturn and the first absolute decline in export value since the last recession in 2001. The decline can be attributed to the lagging and slow turnaround in the global economy, especially in Europe, that has eroded global demand for U.S. and Arizona goods. “Arizona exports to the world dropped by 29 percent in 2009 from $19.7 billion in Graph 1: Arizona’s Exports to the Global Markets 2008 to $14 billion. ...Since the recession officially began in 30% $25 December 2007 exports have been 21.2% $20 12.3% 22.4% 20% 10.9% one of Arizona’s $billion spots, but they saw a steep decline in $10 2009. . ” 1.2% $15 5.1% 2.7% 0% -5.2% -12.7% -10% -17.4% -20% Percent Change 10% 3.6% economic bright -29.0% $5 -30% $- -40% 1998 2000 2002 Global Exports ($billions) 2004 2006 2008 Annual Change (%) Note: While the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009 has been released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by state will not be released until November 18, 2010. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and WISERTrade 1 6 Foreclosure data is from Realty Trac Inc.. http://www.realtytrac.com/ and employment data is from the Arizona Department of Commerce. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Arizona’s Export Participation in the Global Marketplace Arizona’s dependence on exports has continued to fall considerably since the 1997 Asian crisis, when exports accounted for 10.9 percent of state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and were above the nationwide average of 8.3 percent (Graph 2). In 2008 Arizona exports as a percentage of its GDP stood at 7.9% which was below the nationwide average of 9.0%. Between 1997 and 2004, Arizona’s exports as a percentage of GDP were always above the national average. The trend inverted in 2004 and has remained since then. Indeed, Arizona’s economy has gone through structural adjustments in the last decade. The share of economic activities and production levels compared to the whole economy has declined in the goods-producing sectors but risen in the service-providing sectors. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) share of the goods-producing sector (mining, construction and manufacturing) declined from 22 percent in 1997 to 15 percent in 2008. Specifically, the GDP share of manufacturing sector contracted from 15.1 percent in 1997 to 7.8 percent in 2008. On the other hand, GDP share of the service sector (excluding government) increased from 75.3 percent in 1997 to 82.1 percent in 2008. The reasons for the decrease in manufacturing activities and increase in the service sector activities are debatable and range from NAFTA-effects, China-effects and globalization to population dynamics. A high population growth, second only to Nevada in the last 10 years and a higher share of younger and older population than the national average2, has provided economic opportunities in service-providing sectors such as retail, financial activities and health care and social services among others. Graph 2: Arizona’s Exports as a share of GDP (1997 2009) 10.9% 9.0% 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.0% 8.3% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.4% 7.3% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 6.9% 7.2% 7.7% 7.4% 7.8% 7.9% 6.9% 6.5% 6.5% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 US Export to GDP (%) Arizona Exports to GDP (%) Source: WISERTrade Source: WISERTrade Graph 3: Arizona’s Top Five Export Destinations Arizona's Top Export Destinations In 2009, Mexico was Arizona’s top export destination accounting for 12.5 percent followed by China (Mainland3) with a 5.9 percent share (Graph 3). The top three export destination countries accounted for more than 50 percent of Arizona’s top exports in 2009. Source: WISERTrade Graph 4: Arizona’s Top Export Destinations, 1999-2009 Ranked by Dollar Value United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Singapore, France, Malaysia and Thailand rounded out the top ten export destinations (Table 1). Demand for Arizona goods declined in all ten of Arizona’s export destinations in 2009. China (Mainland) took third position from United Kingdom in 2006 and has remained the third largest export destination of Arizona’s exports since. 2 4 6 Rank Mexico has maintained its privileged position as Arizona’s top export destination by export value over the last ten years while Canada has maintained its position as Arizona’s second top export destination. China however has been a rising star, moving from 17th position in 2001, right after it joined the free market, to Arizona’s 3rd highest export destination in 2009 (Graph 4). 0 8 10 12 14 16 18 Mexico Canada China United Kingdom Germany Source: WISERTrade 2 3 Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports to ‘Mainland’ China refers to continental China and excludes exports to Taiwan and Hong Kong. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Arizona’s 2009 Exports , cont... “In 2009, computer and electronic products accounted for 31 percent of the dollar value of goods exported from Arizona.” “Arizona exported goods worth $4.5 billion dollars to Mexico in 2009, a decline from $5.9 billion or 23 percent in 2008. Despite this, Arizona exports to Mexico have What Does Arizona Export to the Global Market? In 2009, computer and electronic products accounted for 31 percent of the dollar value of goods exported from Arizona (Graph 5). Products in this category include semiconductors and other electronic components, navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments, computer equipment, audio and video equipment among others. Companies in Arizona specializing in these products include Motorola, Intel, Honeywell, IBM, Texas Instruments, and many other lesser-known firms. The second largest export category in 2009 was transportation and equipment at 18 percent of all Arizona’s exports by dollar value. Top exports in this category include motor vehicle parts, aerospace products and parts, motor vehicle electrical and electronic equipment and automobiles and light duty motor vehicles, including chassis to mention a few. Representative companies include Ford, Raytheon, Bombardier, Universal Avionics and Honeywell. Machinery, except electrical was the third largest product category in 2009 at 10 percent of total exports and includes electrical machinery, communication and energy wires and cables, wiring devices, batteries, among others. The industry that has experienced the largest growth in export value in the last 12 years was oil and gas (which is a very small industry) with a 7,547 percent increase since 1997 followed by minerals and ores with an 808 percent increase.(Table 2). While computer and electronic products is still Arizona’s top export category, its share of global exports has dropped by more than half from 65 percent in 1997 to 31 percent in 2009 (Graph 6). The remaining top categories: transportation equipment and machinery, except electrical, have grown in export share during the same period from 11 percent to 18 percent and 5 percent to 10 percent, respectively. Arizona Exports to Mexico Arizona exported goods worth $4.5 billion dollars to Mexico in 2009, a decline from $5.9 billion or 23 percent in 2008 (Graph 7). Despite this, Arizona exports to Mexico have increased at a 9 percent average annual rate since 1997. Top 3 export commodities in 2009 were computers and electronic products ($1.1 bil- increased at a 9 Table 1: Arizona’s Top Export Markets Ranked by 2009 Dollar Value percent average Rank annual rate since 1997.” Country 2009 exports % change 08-09 1 Mexico $ 4,544,350,786 32.4% -23.1% 2 Canada $ 1,748,327,061 12.5% -23.2% 3 China (Mainland) $ 822,051,978 5.9% -34.5% 4 United Kingdom $ 600,523,689 4.3% -40.7% 5 Germany $ 586,642,226 4.2% -39.1% 6 Japan $ 527,322,721 3.8% -27.9% 7 Singapore $ 524,512,354 3.7% -48.0% 8 France $ 493,697,952 3.5% -18.8% 9 Malaysia $ 340,047,550 2.4% -11.1% 10 Thailand $ 306,956,643 2.2% -34.5% $ 10,494,432,960 74.8% -28.2% $ 25.2% -31.1% Top 10 Markets Rest of the World Total Arizona Global Exports 3,529,183,128 $ 14,023,616,088 Source: WISERTrade 8 Export Share Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue lion), machinery, except electrical ($466 million), and electrical equipment ($430 million). Computer and electronic products has seen their share rise from 21 percent in 1997 to 34 percent in 2000 and then drop to 24 percent in 2009. The percent share in exports for the machinery and electrical equipment industries have both declined since 1997, with machinery slipping from 13% in 1997 to 10% in 2009 and electrical equipment falling from 11% to 9% over the past 12 years (Table 3). Graph 5: Arizona’s Top Five Export Categories, 2009 creased at a 5 percent average annual rate since 1997. The top 3 export commodities in 2009 were computers and electronic products (26.8 percent share), transportation equipment (24.5 percent share), and agricultural products (15.5 percent share). Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers (about $194.9 million) and edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons ($72.8 million) are some of the top agricultural products exported to Canada in 2009. Source: WISERTrade Graph 6: Arizona’s Top Three Export Categories’ Share of Global Exports, 1997-2009 70.0% 65.3% Arizona Exports to China Arizona Exports to Canada Computer And Electronic Products 60.0% 52.1% 49.3% 50.0% Percent Share Arizona’s exports to Canada totaled $1.7 billion dollars in 2009. Exports to Canada have seen a decrease between 2008 and 2009 of more than half a billion dollars or 23.2 percent (Graph 8). In spite of this sharp decrease, Arizona exports to Canada have in- Arizona exports to China totaled to $822.1 million dollars in 2009, amounting to a decline of 34 percent in export value since 2008 but an annual average increase of 25.2 percent since 1997. The largest increase was seen between 2000 and 2008 when China joined the World Trade Organization and became an 50.5% 48.0% 46.7% 44.0% 42.0% 40.7% 42.1% 40.0% 39.6% Transportation Equipment 35.9% 31.0% 30.0% 20.1% 19.0% 20.0% 16.0% 14.7% 15.8% 15.8% 18.5% 16.7% 15.4% 16.4% 15.5% 6.8% 6.7% 11.3% 10.0% 4.6% 6.3% 6.3% 5.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 8.1% 6.8% 7.0% 17.9% 9.6% 0.0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: WISERTrade Table 2: Arizona’s Export Commodities to the World by Product, Top10 NAICS Code Export Commodities by NAICS Millions of U.S, Dollars 1997 2000 annual avg. % chg 2009 1997-2000 Percent Share 2009 1997 2000 334 Computer and Electronic Products $ 9,020.3 $ 6,883.6 $ 4,341.6 65% 48% 31% -4.3% 336 Transportation Equipment $ 1,561.0 $ 2,257.9 $ 2,511.1 11% 16% 18% 5.1% 333 Machinery, except Electrical $ 639.5 $ 908.6 $ 1,344.6 5% 6% 10% 9.2% 332 Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi $ 336.6 $ 748.2 $ 953.8 2% 5% 7% 15.3% 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Component $ 366.9 $ 673.5 $ 752.6 3% 5% 5% 8.8% 111 Agricultural Products $ 353.4 $ 316.4 $ 684.7 3% 2% 5% 7.8% 325 Chemicals $ 136.9 $ 240.1 $ 506.2 1% 2% 4% 22.5% 339 Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities $ 299.3 $ 325.4 $ 426.9 2% 2% 3% 3.6% 326 Plastics and Rubber Products $ 196.2 $ 555.7 $ 409.9 1% 4% 3% 9.1% 212 Minerals and Ores $ 48.6 $ 53.9 $ 392.6 0% 0% 3% 59.0% All Other Categories $ 861.6 $ 1,370.3 $ 1,699.5 6% 10% 12% 8.1% $ 13,820.2 $ 14,333.7 $ 14,023.6 100% 100% 100% 0.1% Total All Industries Source: WISERTrade Source: WISERTrade www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 Machinery, Except Electrical Arizona’s Economy Tables 3-5: Arizona’s Export Commodities to Mexico, Canada, and China, Top10 by Product Table 3: Arizona Exports to Mexico NAICS Code Export Commodities by NAICS 334 Millions of U.S, Dollars 1997 2000 2009 Computer and Electronic Products $ 454.2 $ 1,572.4 333 Machinery, except Electrical $ 289.2 $ 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Component $ 237.5 326 Plastics and Rubber Products $ 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing $ 332 Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi $ 311 Food and Kindred Products $ 111 Agricultural Products 325 Chemicals 322 Percent Share 1997 2000 annual avg. % chg 2009 1997-2000 $ 1,093.1 20.9% 33.8% 24.1% 11.7% 354.5 $ 466.0 13.3% 7.6% 10.3% 5.1% $ 502.8 $ 430.0 10.9% 10.8% 9.5% 6.8% 150.4 $ 511.0 $ 327.3 6.9% 11.0% 7.2% 9.8% 112.5 $ 226.8 $ 280.5 5.2% 4.9% 6.2% 12.4% 140.3 $ 337.9 $ 253.9 6.4% 7.3% 5.6% 6.7% 53.3 $ 85.4 $ 212.1 2.4% 1.8% 4.7% 24.9% $ 45.3 $ 96.9 $ 205.5 2.1% 2.1% 4.5% 29.4% $ 44.9 $ 95.5 $ 195.6 2.1% 2.1% 4.3% 27.9% Paper $ 100.3 $ 201.2 $ 177.8 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 6.4% Other Categories $ 550.0 $ 667.2 $ 902.4 25.3% 14.3% 19.9% 5.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 9.1% Total All Industries $ 2,177.9 $ 4,651.7 $ 4,544.4 Table 4: Arizona Exports to Canada 334 Computer And Electronic Products $ 488.5 $ 724.8 $ 467.7 44.6% 48.6% 26.8% -0.4% 336 Transportation Equipment $ 195.2 $ 263.8 $ 428.8 17.8% 17.7% 24.5% 10.0% 111 Agricultural Products $ 81.1 $ 84.1 $ 270.5 7.4% 5.6% 15.5% 19.5% 325 Chemicals $ 24.2 $ 53.2 $ 128.5 2.2% 3.6% 7.4% 36.0% Machinery, except Electrical $ 55.5 $ 80.7 $ 119.8 5.1% 5.4% 6.8% 9.7% 332 Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi $ 77.7 $ 80.9 $ 72.4 7.1% 5.4% 4.1% -0.6% 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Component $ 23.2 $ 36.4 $ 68.4 2.1% 2.4% 3.9% 16.2% 339 Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities $ 21.3 $ 30.9 $ 60.9 1.9% 2.1% 3.5% 15.5% 990 Special Classification Provisions, Nesoi $ 20.8 $ 27.2 $ 18.1 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% -1.1% 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing $ 31.3 $ 9.9 $ 17.5 2.9% 0.7% 1.0% -3.7% Other Categories $ 77.5 $ 98.9 $ 333 Total All Industries $ 1,096.2 95.7 7.1% 6.6% 5.5% 2.0% $ 1,748.3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 5.0% $ 416.7 38.8% 37.9% 50.7% 35.4% $ 1,490.8 Table 5: Arizona Exports to China 334 Computer And Electronic Products $ 79.3 $ 57.7 212 Minerals And Ores $ - $ 0.2 $ 109.1 0.0% 0.1% 13.3% NA 333 Machinery, Except Electrical $ 7.0 $ 9.5 $ 68.7 3.4% 6.3% 8.4% 73.0% 111 Agricultural (Crop) Products $ 97.9 $ 4.6 $ 59.9 47.9% 3.0% 7.3% -3.2% 336 Transportation Equipment $ 10.0 $ 21.2 $ 44.5 4.9% 13.9% 5.4% 28.6% 326 Plastics And Rubber Products $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 24.7 0.4% 1.2% 3.0% 277.2% 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, And Component $ 1.3 $ 10.3 $ 22.5 0.7% 6.8% 2.7% 132.2% 910 Waste And Scrap $ 2.0 $ 5.4 $ 21.1 1.0% 3.5% 2.6% 79.9% 325 Chemicals $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 10.2 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 137.5% 332 Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi $ 3.3 $ 5.9 $ 9.5 1.6% 3.9% 1.2% 15.5% Other categories $ 2.0 $ 34.8 $ 35.0 1.0% 22.9% 4.3% 140.4% Total All Industries $ 204.3 $ 152.1 $ 822.1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 25.2% Source: WISERTrade 10 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Graph 7: Arizona’s Exports to Mexico, by Export Value, 1997 to 2009 open market for U.S. goods. Exports from Arizona to China have grown at an annual average of 36.7 percent since 2000. $5,369 $5,000 $4,748 $4,652 $3,251 Computer And Electronic Products $3,853 $3,581 $4,000 $4,544 $5,235 $3,224 $2,739 $3,000 $3,045 $2,178 Machinery, Except Electrical $2,000 $1,000 $0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Electrical Equipment, Appliances, And Component Source: WISERTrade Graph 8: Arizona’s Exports to Canada, by Export Value, 1997 to 2009 $2,500 $2,193 Export Value ($million) Arizona’s export value of minerals and ores to China rose dramatically between 2008 and 2009 by 1,709.6 percent. Arizona, the largest producer of copper in the U.S. will continue to benefit from China’s growing demand as the largest user of copper in the world. Conclusion $2,000 Total all Industries $1,847 $1,614 $1,491 $1,500 $1,748 $1,405 $1,336 $1,140 $1,089 $1,000 $2,275 $1,194 Computer And Electronic Products $1,171 $1,096 Transportation Equipment $500 Agricultural Products $0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: WISERTrade Graph 9: Arizona’s Exports to China, by Export Value, 1997 to 2009 $1,400 $1,317 $1,254 Total all Industries $1,196 $1,200 Export Value ($million) Arizona’s exports have been profoundly impacted by the U.S. recession and declining demand in Mexico. As the U.S. and global economy recovers, we expect to see a strong recovery in Arizona’s global exports. Total all Industries $5,911 $6,000 Export Value ($million) Commodities that are top exports to China include computer and electronic products (accounting for 50.7 percent of all 2009 exports to China), minerals and ores (13.3 percent share) and machinery, except electrical (8.4 percent share). China has proved to be Mexico’s strong import competitor for computer and electronic products. The share of computer and electronic products exported to Mexico decreased from 34 percent in 2000 to 24 percent in 2009 while China’s share grew from 37.9 percent in 2000 to 50.7 percent in 2009. Arizona exports of computer and electronic products to China more than doubled between 2005 and 2006, resulting in a 84 percent increase in Arizona’s total export value to China in 2006 (Graph 9). This makes computer and electronic products the main component of Arizona’s exports to China. $7,000 $1,000 $740 $800 $822 $650 $629 $600 $200 Minerals And Ores $382 $400 $204 $239 Computer And Electronic Products $193 $152 $142 Machinery, Except Electrical $1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: WISERTrade www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Forecast Tables Arizona Arizona’s Economy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 217,075.7 221,100.6 230,364.0 245,289.1 263,238.4 ‐2.7 1.9 4.2 6.5 7.3 32,911 33,100 33,823 35,214 36,870 ‐4.2 0.6 2.2 4.1 4.7 70,129.9 74,601.3 81,835.7 89,354.9 95,783.0 ‐10.3 6.4 9.7 9.2 7.2 11,599.4 11,837.7 12,454.7 13,081.9 13,815.2 0.7 2.1 5.2 5.0 5.6 43,827.4 46,398.1 51,442.7 56,621.5 60,767.0 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change ‐10.9 5.9 10.9 10.1 7.3 8,884.2 9,204.8 10,033.4 10,980.7 11,889.7 ‐5.3 3.6 9.0 9.4 8.3 6,110.0 7,450.3 8,208.4 8,990.1 9,648.6 ‐27.0 21.9 10.2 9.5 7.3 2,427.2 2,386.3 2,420.6 2,523.6 2,649.0 ‐7.2 ‐1.7 1.4 4.3 5.0 11.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change ‐18.6 ‐7.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 Construction 129.5 103.1 93.7 110.4 138.2 % change ‐30.5 ‐20.3 ‐9.1 17.8 25.2 Manufacturing 154.0 152.8 157.3 163.3 168.2 % change ‐11.0 ‐0.8 2.9 3.8 3.0 478.8 471.7 482.3 502.1 523.3 ‐7.4 ‐1.5 2.2 4.1 4.2 39.3 37.8 40.2 41.5 42.0 ‐6.4 ‐3.9 6.5 3.1 1.3 345.2 337.3 339.8 356.7 380.0 ‐10.6 ‐2.3 0.7 5.0 6.5 256.0 256.6 264.0 274.5 284.8 ‐5.2 0.2 2.9 4.0 3.7 422.7 414.1 409.2 413.3 422.6 ‐2.2 ‐2.0 ‐1.2 1.0 2.2 6,595.8 6,679.9 6,810.8 6,965.7 7,139.6 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.5 9.1 7.7 6.9 6.3 6.2 14,425 20,063 36,796 51,320 63,073 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Unemployment Rate, percent Residential Permits (units) % change ‐42.5 39.1 83.4 39.5 22.9 Single family 12,939 18,611 33,356 45,907 54,943 % change ‐27.2 43.8 79.2 37.6 19.7 Multi‐family 1,485 1,452 3,440 5,413 8,130 % change Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Civilian Nonag Wage Rate % change 12 ‐79.7 ‐2.3 136.9 57.4 50.2 2,640.4 2,655.1 2,760.4 2,883.9 3,007.5 ‐2.7 0.6 4.0 4.5 4.3 45,296 46,231 47,439 48,613 49,979 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA 2009 2010 Forecast Tables 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 217,075.7 221,100.6 230,364.0 245,289.1 -2.7 1.9 4.2 6.5 263,238.4 7.3 32,911 33,100 33,823 35,214 36,870 -4.2 0.6 2.2 4.1 4.7 70,129.9 74,601.3 81,835.7 89,354.9 95,783.0 -10.3 6.4 9.7 9.2 7.2 11,599.4 11,837.7 12,454.7 13,081.9 13,815.2 0.7 2.1 5.2 5.0 5.6 43,827.4 46,398.1 51,442.7 56,621.5 60,767.0 -10.9 5.9 10.9 10.1 7.3 8,884.2 9,204.8 10,033.4 10,980.7 11,889.7 -5.3 3.6 9.0 9.4 8.3 6,110.0 7,450.3 8,208.4 8,990.1 9,648.6 -27.0 21.9 10.2 9.5 7.3 2,427.2 2,386.3 2,420.6 2,523.6 2,649.0 -7.2 -1.7 1.4 4.3 5.0 11.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction -18.6 -7.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 129.5 103.1 93.7 110.4 138.2 % change -30.5 -20.3 -9.1 17.8 25.2 Manufacturing 154.0 152.8 157.3 163.3 168.2 % change -11.0 -0.8 2.9 3.8 3.0 523.3 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 478.8 471.7 482.3 502.1 % change -7.4 -1.5 2.2 4.1 4.2 Information 39.3 37.8 40.2 41.5 42.0 % change -6.4 -3.9 6.5 3.1 1.3 345.2 337.3 339.8 356.7 380.0 -10.6 -2.3 0.7 5.0 6.5 256.0 256.6 264.0 274.5 284.8 -5.2 0.2 2.9 4.0 3.7 422.7 414.1 409.2 413.3 422.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.2 1.0 2.2 6,595.8 6,679.9 6,810.8 6,965.7 7,139.6 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.5 Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change 9.1 7.7 6.9 6.3 6.2 14,425 20,063 36,796 51,320 63,073 Single family -42.5 39.1 83.4 39.5 22.9 % change 12,939 18,611 33,356 45,907 54,943 Multi‐family -27.2 43.8 79.2 37.6 19.7 % change 1,485 1,452 3,440 5,413 8,130 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change -79.7 -2.3 136.9 57.4 50.2 2,640.4 2,655.1 2,760.4 2,883.9 3,007.5 -2.7 0.6 4.0 4.5 4.3 45,296 46,231 47,439 48,613 49,979 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.8 0.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 Forecast Tables Tucson MSA Arizona’s Economy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 217,075.7 221,100.6 230,364.0 245,289.1 -2.7 1.9 4.2 6.5 263,238.4 7.3 32,911 33,100 33,823 35,214 36,870 -4.2 0.6 2.2 4.1 4.7 70,129.9 74,601.3 81,835.7 89,354.9 95,783.0 -10.3 6.4 9.7 9.2 7.2 11,599.4 11,837.7 12,454.7 13,081.9 13,815.2 0.7 2.1 5.2 5.0 5.6 43,827.4 46,398.1 51,442.7 56,621.5 60,767.0 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change -10.9 5.9 10.9 10.1 7.3 8,884.2 9,204.8 10,033.4 10,980.7 11,889.7 -5.3 3.6 9.0 9.4 8.3 6,110.0 7,450.3 8,208.4 8,990.1 9,648.6 -27.0 21.9 10.2 9.5 7.3 2,427.2 2,386.3 2,420.6 2,523.6 2,649.0 -7.2 -1.7 1.4 4.3 5.0 11.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 -18.6 -7.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 138.2 EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction 129.5 103.1 93.7 110.4 % change -30.5 -20.3 -9.1 17.8 25.2 Manufacturing 154.0 152.8 157.3 163.3 168.2 % change Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality -11.0 -0.8 2.9 3.8 3.0 478.8 471.7 482.3 502.1 523.3 -7.4 -1.5 2.2 4.1 4.2 39.3 37.8 40.2 41.5 42.0 -6.4 -3.9 6.5 3.1 1.3 345.2 337.3 339.8 356.7 380.0 -10.6 -2.3 0.7 5.0 6.5 256.0 256.6 264.0 274.5 284.8 % change -5.2 0.2 2.9 4.0 3.7 Government 422.7 414.1 409.2 413.3 422.6 % change -2.2 -2.0 -1.2 1.0 2.2 6,595.8 6,679.9 6,810.8 6,965.7 7,139.6 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.5 9.1 7.7 6.9 6.3 6.2 63,073 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) % change 14,425 20,063 36,796 51,320 Single family -42.5 39.1 83.4 39.5 22.9 % change 12,939 18,611 33,356 45,907 54,943 Multi‐family -27.2 43.8 79.2 37.6 19.7 % change 1,485 1,452 3,440 5,413 8,130 -79.7 -2.3 136.9 57.4 50.2 2,640.4 2,655.1 2,760.4 2,883.9 3,007.5 -2.7 0.6 4.0 4.5 4.3 45,296 46,231 47,439 48,613 49,979 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.2 -1.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change 14 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona * all numbers & analysis from EBR's November 2009 forecast (next forecast update: November, 2009). SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS for the Arizona Economic Indicators: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOC: Arizona Department of Commerce ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C‐40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 3147.3 3145.6 3145.7 3128.4 3138.5 2846.2 2848.4 2866.4 2852.4 2832.6 -1.7 -2.6 301.1 297.2 279.3 276 305.9 18.4 49.7 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 15 48.3 2392.1 2408 2423.1 2416.5 2366 -5.1 -7.2 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 -15.1 -19.4 Construction 122.2 119.4 116.7 114.4 111 -24.6 -30.8 Durable Goods Manufacturing 118.1 117.9 117.8 116.8 114.5 -11.2 -12.6 Fabricated Metal Products 13.9 13.5 13.3 13 12.4 -19.5 -22.9 Computer and Electronic Prod. 36.2 36.1 35.9 35.6 35.4 -10.2 -10.2 Aerospace Products and Parts 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 -2.6 3 Non‐Durable Goods Manufacturing 31.3 31.1 31.3 30.9 30.5 -8.4 -8.2 Wholesale Trade 97.7 98.8 100.6 102.5 102.8 -1.6 -6.6 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) -0.1 0.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Retail Trade 292.3 296.1 301.9 304.3 295.8 -3.4 -7.3 Utilities 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 -1.6 -2.3 Transportation and Warehousing 67.4 67.5 67.3 68.7 66.8 -7.5 -6.7 Information 38.3 38.6 38.5 37.8 37 -8 -6.7 119.4 119.5 119.6 120 117.4 -3.1 -3.2 45.5 44.5 45.2 45.4 44.5 -5.9 -9.3 337.6 343.9 345.9 346.2 333.1 -7 -10.2 49.9 51 52.6 52.2 50.5 7.2 5.3 280.5 283.8 285.6 285.5 283.6 2.2 2.1 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 32.3 34.2 34.7 34.7 33.3 1.2 -5.4 Accommodation 42.2 42 42.6 41.6 40.3 -9.8 -9.2 174.4 176.6 177.4 176.9 174.6 -2.9 -3.9 -6.6 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services 93 91.5 92.1 90.4 90.1 -5.7 Federal Government 56.9 57.1 56.4 56.1 56.3 2.2 4 State and Local Government 370 371.4 373.8 369.2 360.9 -3.7 -3.4 State and Local Government Education 200.1 202.3 205.2 201.9 194 -2.6 -2.7 Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC & EBR 38.1 38.7 39.2 38.8 39 -1.3 -4.4 Construction 19.59 19.85 19.97 20.19 20.14 4.2 4.3 Manufacturing 17.04 17.05 17.26 17.51 17.42 1.7 3.8 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 15.54 15.73 15.58 15.29 15.69 1.7 4.7 Retail Trade 13.47 13.55 13.32 13.11 13.34 3.4 4.9 Wholesale Trade 21.08 21.60 21.66 21.29 21.88 1 5.3 Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC & EBR Arizona monthly data continued next page... 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Arizona ‐ Monthly , continued... Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 5,525,013 5,601,022 5,897,719 7,082,454 ... 2.1 -10.3 3,371,660 3,398,850 3,656,308 4,793,991 ... -1.0 -10.8 Food, EBR 930,723 960,273 973,166 977,109 ... -1.4 0.6 Restaurants & Bars 686,674 708,876 720,817 742,924 ... -1.5 -5.6 Gasoline, EBR 535,956 533,023 547,428 568,430 561,846 37.4 -23.9 -2.9 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 212,344 220,540 212,395 223,510 214,592 -3.7 Utilities 962,019 822,558 632,444 658,141 ... 2.6 -2.0 Communications 224,676 243,316 221,974 170,828 ... -31.0 -19.9 58,723 70,523 89,504 81,854 ... 6.4 -9.0 Rentals ‐ Personal Property 243,140 266,528 275,363 258,782 ... -13.4 -2.7 Contracting 821,544 800,175 798,690 790,388 ... -41.9 -38.7 Mining ‐ Metal, Oil & Gas 544,079 106,077 113,322 112,007 ... 724.4 -18.6 Hotel/Motel 135,667 161,277 155,039 134,255 ... -9.8 -16.6 1,144 1,084 951 1,391 1,240 68.9 -34.1 Single Family Units 1,026 1,074 906 1,117 975 76.6 -18.7 2‐4 Unit Structures 23 5 23 8 9 -35.7 -82.7 5‐plus Unit Structures 95 5 22 266 256 52.4 -73.9 Amusements New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total 3,323 3,342 2,888 3,076 2,493 45.4 74.6 Chapter 7 2,721 2,717 2,330 2,483 1,932 41.6 78.8 Chapter 11 53 50 59 71 56 51.4 51.7 Chapter 13 549 574 498 519 505 61.3 59.1 Arizona ‐ Quarterly 08 IV 09 I 09 II 09 III % change vs. year ago for most recent: 09 IV quarter 4‐QTR average Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase 6535.5 6559.6 6583.7 6604.5 6622.6 1.3 1.5 13.0 13.3 12.1 11.4 11.6 -10.9 -10.8 Births 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.7 23.0 -4.6 -6.6 Deaths 11.1 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.4 2.8 -1.5 11.1 10.8 12.0 6.0 7.2 -34.8 -42.3 222,004 217,996 218,410 217,522 218,816 -1.4 -2.2 158,027 153,507 151,988 151,141 151,632 -4.0 -4.8 17,598 17,392 17,344 17,218 17,221 -2.1 -2.5 739 729 722 719 721 -2.5 -3.5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 42,770 41,024 39,555 39,158 39,262 -8.2 -7.4 Plus: Transfer Payments 38,066 40,128 43,489 43,722 44,423 16.7 14.8 115,939 111,801 110,739 110,037 110,196 -5.0 -5.6 Other Labor Income EBR 25,296 25,372 25,213 25,069 25,055 -1.0 -0.6 Proprietor's Income 16,793 15,970 15,803 15,994 ... -7.8 -7.7 106 -62 -3 -27 ... -116.3 -98.7 Net Migrati on Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries Farm Nonfarm 16,687 16,032 15,806 16,020 ... -6.7 -6.2 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 33,969 33,233 33,174 32,935 33,041 -2.7 -3.7 Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 44,652 44,118 44,704 45,207 ... 2.4 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 1.9 17 Arizona’s Economy Travel and Tourism ‐ Monthly Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona 1,801,545 1,493,210 1,297,083 Historical 135,023 125,287 122,750 Scenic 625,415 500,574 329,214 1,041,107 867,349 845,119 129,828 177,713 192,585 Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona 740,860 649,373 -6.6 0.3 49,345 50,570 -14.6 0.3 238,236 208,241 -12.0 -3.0 453,279 390,562 -2.2 2.3 187,463 272,863 -5.5 -6.3 Historical 23,634 28,664 29,058 38,801 50,205 13.1 -5.6 Scenic 72,583 113,121 136,274 135,609 201,633 -7.2 -9.6 Water Based Recreation 33,611 35,928 27,253 13,053 21,025 -21.9 9.5 International Border Crossings, USBCBP Passengers 1,379,295 1,235,625 1,275,366 1,542,421 1,388,681 -11.9 -10.9 Pedestrians 603,898 652,758 707,454 821,926 638,481 -8.8 -24.1 Vehicles 607,977 638,107 640,090 659,721 633,223 -6.3 -3.9 Inflation and Prices ‐ Monthly Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Consumer Price Index (1982‐1984=100) BLS U.S. ‐ All Urban 216.0 216.2 216.3 215.9 216.7 2.6 -0.1 U.S. ‐ Wage Earners 211.3 211.5 212.0 211.7 212.6 3.3 -0.4 Inflation and Prices ‐ Quarterly 08 IV 09 I 09 II 09 III % change vs. year ago for most recent: quarter 4 –QTR avg. 09 IV Consumer Price index (1982‐84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) 217.6 216.8 218.8 219.9 219.8 1.0 -0.4 U.S. ‐ All Urban Consumers 213.1 212.0 214.3 215.7 216.2 1.4 -0.4 U.S. ‐ Urban Wage Earners 208.1 206.5 209.2 211.0 211.8 1.8 -0.7 Gross Domestic Product 109.2 109.7 109.7 109.8 109.9 0.7 1.2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 108.9 108.4 108.8 109.5 110.1 1.2 0.2 Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA For historical data and additional data series, subscribe to the EBR Database Online. The Economic and Business Research Center has maintained economic indicators on the State of Arizona since 1949. The EBR Database Online builds upon this large and up-to-date database to provide economic and socio-demographic data series in simple, easy to generate reports online. To subscribe visit : http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 2,098.4 2,103.6 2,105.3 2,095.5 2,101.8 -0.5 0.0 1,910.3 1,916.9 1,929.6 1,921.7 1,908.7 -2.1 -3.2 188.1 186.7 175.7 173.8 193.1 19.2 54.9 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 19.7 55.4 1,689.4 1,704.4 1,715.3 1,712.9 1,674.8 -5.5 -7.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 -12.1 -20.2 Construction 90.8 88.7 86.6 84.8 82.6 -25.0 -31.0 Durable Goods 86.6 86.4 86.5 86.0 84.0 -12.4 -13.6 Computer and Electronic Prod. 33.0 32.9 32.9 32.8 32.7 -8.4 -10.0 Aerospace Products and Parts 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 -6.7 3.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.0 23.5 -7.8 -7.3 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Non‐Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities 82.3 83.2 84.7 86.4 86.7 0.2 -5.4 204.8 208.2 211.9 213.5 208.4 -3.2 -7.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 -1.1 -3.2 Transportation and Warehousing 52.4 52.2 52.4 53.9 52.3 -7.3 -7.5 Information 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.2 -8.4 -6.4 102.8 102.7 102.6 103.0 101.1 -3.8 -3.8 34.9 34.0 34.5 34.7 33.2 -9.0 -10.0 268.5 274.5 276.0 276.2 264.1 -7.6 -10.8 7.2 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government 39.2 40.0 41.2 41.2 39.8 9.0 185.6 188.7 189.9 189.5 188.3 2.6 1.9 23.5 24.7 25.3 25.1 23.9 -2.8 -6.0 25.2 25.4 25.9 25.6 25.0 -12.6 -9.6 119.0 121.1 121.6 121.5 119.0 -4.6 -4.4 67.9 66.7 67.3 66.2 66.0 -5.7 -6.6 22.7 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.9 0.0 1.7 219.2 220.8 222.3 219.6 215.3 -3.2 -3.4 117.6 119.5 120.7 119.1 115.2 -1.0 -2.3 3,650,654 3,739,411 3,943,158 4,770,841 ... -0.4 -12.7 2,303,095 2,345,108 2,523,580 3,316,416 ... -1.5 -11.3 Food, EBR 548,469 565,883 573,480 575,804 ... -14.1 -12.4 Restaurants & Bars 470,289 502,087 509,180 526,354 ... -0.7 -5.8 Gasoline, EBR 328,801 326,333 336,918 352,267 350,677 35.1 -26.4 Contracting 550,605 548,714 541,622 552,801 ... -41.3 -41.1 Hotel/Motel 67,729 94,489 94,168 84,711 ... -8.1 -19.8 714 757 724 838 902 73.8 -38.7 Single Family Units 663 754 691 810 715 107.2 -14.8 2‐4 Unit Structures 9 3 21 0 7 -41.7 -87.1 42 0 12 28 180 11.1 -86.4 1,383,759 1,381,032 1,307,571 1,359,769 915,969 7.2 6.7 7,907 8,121 7,494 7,661 5,009 5.8 49.5 175,004 170,057 174,482 177,492 182,865 1.4 -28.9 2,838,459 3,189,323 3,072,834 3,238,717 ... 2.1 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements 35,977 37,809 36,862 38,514 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu ... -1.5 -5.2 19 -9.0 Arizona’s Economy Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Quarterly 08 IV 09 I 09 II 09 III % change vs. year ago for most recent 09 IV quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 4,295.7 4,306.1 4,316.2 4,326.2 4,326.2 0.7 1.0 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 -7.7 -7.6 Births 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.3 16.0 -6.8 -6.6 Deaths 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 -5.4 -4.9 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -9.8 -3740.4 -129.8 148,015 146,251 144,787 143,323 141,859 -4.2 -3.9 114,462 112,481 110,787 109,093 107,399 -6.2 -5.8 12,965 12,779 12,622 12,464 12,307 -5.1 -4.8 -3.5 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence -199 -200 -202 -204 -206 -3.4 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 24,192 23,546 22,941 22,336 21,731 -10.2 -9.7 Plus: Transfer Payments 22,525 23,204 23,883 24,562 25,241 12.1 12.6 34,456 33,964 33,545 33,129 32,791 -4.8 -4.9 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Apache County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jan 10 23,425 23,100 22,925 22,900 23,125 4.3 20,000 19,625 19,600 19,500 19,325 2.0 7.6 3.6 3,425 3,475 3,325 3,400 3,800 17.8 37.9 14.6 15.0 14.5 14.8 16.4 13.0 28.7 20,300 20,000 19,925 19,875 19,500 -0.6 -0.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 7,400 7,350 7,250 7,150 7,050 -1.1 -1.2 Goods‐Producing 675 675 625 600 550 -33.3 -26.5 Service‐Providing 19,625 19,325 19,300 19,275 18,950 0.8 0.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,100 2,100 2,050 2,025 2,050 5.1 1.1 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,625 4,575 4,575 4,525 4,450 2.3 3.2 12,900 12,650 12,675 12,725 12,450 -0.4 -0.4 Federal Government 3,500 3,450 3,475 3,500 3,475 5.3 4.4 State and Local Government 9,400 9,200 9,200 9,225 8,975 -2.4 -2.1 14,594 13,181 11,913 13,976 ... 15.5 -12.7 Retail 7,462 6,331 5,971 7,757 ... -3.1 -5.9 Restaurants & Bars 1,172 987 743 595 ... -24.7 3.6 Gasoline, EBR 5,960 5,863 5,199 5,624 5,192 31.9 -20.3 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,361 2,426 2,017 2,211 1,983 -7.6 2.4 Contracting 6,553 11,888 13,789 6,591 ... -15.2 -9.5 Hotel/Motel 1,443 1,105 619 625 ... -30.7 -10.9 20 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Tucson MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 491.6 491.3 491.6 488.8 490.6 0.5 2.2 448.8 448.9 451.7 449.1 446.9 -1.0 -0.7 42.8 42.4 39.9 39.7 43.7 19.1 47.9 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.2 17.1 45.4 359.5 360.9 362.7 362.1 354.6 -4.1 -5.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.0 -9.5 Construction 16.0 15.7 15.2 14.9 14.4 -23.0 -27.6 Manufacturing 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.3 24.1 -6.2 -7.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 1.6 2.7 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.3 -8.8 -11.8 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC & EBR Total Natural Resources and Mining Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 40.0 40.3 41.5 41.7 40.0 -5.2 -7.0 Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.7 -6.5 -4.1 Information 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 -11.8 -9.4 Financial Activities 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 4.1 1.7 Professional and Business Services 46.7 47.0 47.2 47.6 46.6 -4.9 -7.9 Educational and Health Services 58.6 58.9 59.2 59.3 59.0 1.0 2.1 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 -6.7 -7.9 Accommodation 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 -10.6 -10.8 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 -0.7 -2.0 Other Services 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.1 -5.4 -6.2 Federal Government 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.1 6.1 8.0 State and Local Government 67.9 68.1 68.4 68.1 65.5 -4.0 -3.3 43.0 43.2 44.2 44.0 41.5 -1.9 -1.6 816,394 823,248 874,708 1,100,562 ... 5.7 -9.3 Retail 500,687 497,422 545,913 766,706 ... 6.5 -7.9 Food, EBR 130,274 134,410 136,215 136,766 ... -12.8 -11.0 Restaurants & Bars 106,612 110,730 111,299 113,523 ... -1.9 -4.1 78,822 80,686 81,281 83,567 83,312 47.4 -17.4 Contracting 109,383 106,318 106,621 98,117 ... -46.0 -34.8 Hotel/Motel 16,661 21,989 27,733 19,081 ... -12.3 -11.9 222 176 122 177 201 84.4 -26.1 220 174 117 165 179 77.2 -20.8 2 2 5 12 22 175.0 -68.2 192,242 207,559 190,456 179,305 143,268 -5.5 -5.2 979 1,063 1,011 886 712 6.8 11.1 196,365 195,258 188,384 202,376 201,219 -11.5 -13.9 268,638 316,069 303,842 304,875 291,292 0.9 -12.6 12,847 15,256 13,779 13,835 13,865 -22.0 -15.6 State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Gasoline, EBR New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 21 Arizona’s Economy Tucson MSA ‐ Quarterly 08 IV 09 I 09 II 09 III % change vs. year ago for most recent 09 IV quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 1014.2 1015.8 1017.4 1018.9 1018.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 -2.8 -3.5 Births 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 -3.6 -3.7 Deaths 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 -4.2 -3.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.3 -516.4 -114.2 32,542 32,388 32,278 32,168 32,059 -1.5 -1.3 20,646 20,368 20,128 19,889 19,649 -4.8 -4.6 2,408 2,385 2,366 2,347 2,328 -3.3 -3.1 179 177 176 174 173 -3.4 -3.5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 7,149 7,008 6,882 6,755 6,629 -7.3 -6.9 Plus: Transfer Payments 6,977 7,220 7,459 7,698 7,936 13.7 14.4 32,088 31,884 31,727 31,571 31,464 -1.9 -2.0 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Cochise County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 63,900 63,525 63,400 62,975 63,700 2.8 59,075 58,825 58,900 58,450 58,575 1.8 4.1 2.3 4,825 4,700 4,500 4,525 5,125 15.8 34.1 7.6 7.4 7.1 7.2 8.0 12.6 29.0 -2.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 37,475 37,625 37,550 37,325 37,125 -1.2 Total Private 24,975 25,000 24,950 24,825 24,600 -2.7 -4.1 Goods‐Producing 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,175 2,100 -11.6 -19.0 Mining and Construction 1,625 1,600 1,575 1,550 1,500 -11.8 -20.5 Manufacturing 725 700 675 625 600 -11.1 -15.2 Service‐Providing 35,125 35,325 35,300 35,150 35,025 -0.5 -1.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,175 6,250 6,275 6,375 6,175 -2.8 -6.6 Information 675 675 650 650 650 8.3 11.0 Financial Activities 975 975 1,000 975 975 2.6 -9.9 Professional and Business Services 5,675 5,675 5,650 5,550 5,600 -4.7 1.4 Educational and Health Services 4,350 4,325 4,350 4,375 4,400 3.5 2.0 Leisure and Hospitality 3,875 3,925 3,925 3,850 3,850 -3.1 -4.6 900 875 850 875 850 -5.6 -5.5 12,500 12,625 12,600 12,500 12,525 1.8 1.2 Federal Government 5,225 5,275 5,300 5,275 5,275 4.5 5.2 State and Local Government 7,275 7,350 7,300 7,225 7,250 0.0 -1.5 76,260 78,930 86,171 100,680 ... 3.0 -7.2 55,774 56,513 64,406 77,288 ... -3.0 -3.4 9,498 11,433 9,894 10,347 ... -4.2 -0.1 10,988 10,984 11,870 13,045 12,891 51.8 -25.2 Other Services Government Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 4,353 4,545 4,605 5,129 4,924 6.4 -3.7 Contracting 22,902 13,143 23,433 25,282 ... 0.3 -20.2 Hotel/Motel 3,380 3,835 3,254 2,765 ... -42.6 -9.3 12 50.0 23.5 12 50.0 -7.4 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 22 33 19 University 125 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller 28 College of Management, The of Arizona 28 33 19 29 Single Family Units April 2010—Spring Issue Coconino County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 76,900 76,200 76,100 75,800 76,700 4.4 2.5 70,900 70,200 70,100 69,500 69,600 2.8 0.2 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,300 7,100 22.4 42.5 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.3 9.3 17.3 39.2 -4.3 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 62,900 62,600 62,200 62,100 61,200 -0.5 Total Private 42,900 43,000 42,800 42,900 42,200 4.2 -4.6 Goods‐Producing 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,600 5,500 -11.3 -14.0 Mining and Construction 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 -20.8 -29.5 Manufacturing 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,600 -5.3 -1.8 Service‐Providing 57,200 56,900 56,500 56,500 55,700 0.7 -3.2 9,800 9,800 9,900 10,100 9,800 5.4 -2.3 400 400 400 400 300 -25.0 -2.1 Financial Activities 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 0.0 -15.6 Professional and Business Services 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 0.0 -11.9 Educational and Health Services 7,800 7,900 7,900 8,000 7,900 1.3 3.4 13,100 13,100 12,900 12,800 12,700 17.6 -2.8 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,900 0.0 -4.9 20,000 19,600 19,400 19,200 19,000 -9.5 -3.9 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,700 0.0 4.9 16,800 16,600 16,600 16,400 16,300 -10.9 -5.3 139,268 124,338 111,125 132,726 ... 5.0 -8.6 Retail 88,193 78,731 72,569 93,171 ... 1.5 -5.3 Restaurants & Bars 30,412 26,075 20,788 21,945 ... -7.1 -7.5 Gasoline, EBR 20,663 19,532 17,767 17,610 16,033 27.7 -18.5 8,187 8,081 6,893 6,924 6,124 -10.5 4.8 Contracting 26,429 26,144 18,660 17,319 ... -45.0 -32.6 Hotel/Motel 25,451 19,755 11,415 11,910 ... -8.7 -6.9 13 16 10 6 57 1040.0 93.4 13 16 10 6 1 -80.0 -53.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 23 Arizona’s Economy Gila County Sept 09 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 23,675 22,975 23,200 23,025 23,200 1.1 3.5 21,175 20,500 20,850 20,625 20,475 -1.3 -1.0 2,500 2,475 2,350 2,400 2,725 23.9 67.7 10.6 10.8 10.1 10.4 11.7 22.5 62.6 -5.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 14,150 13,775 13,975 13,850 13,650 -4.4 Total Private 9,025 8,825 8,825 8,750 8,625 -6.3 -7.7 Goods‐Producing 2,325 2,275 2,250 2,225 2,175 -13.9 -15.5 Service‐Providing 11,825 11,500 11,725 11,625 11,475 -2.3 -3.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,275 2,250 2,250 2,275 2,150 -9.5 -0.4 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,425 4,300 4,325 4,250 4,300 0.0 -6.6 Government 5,125 4,950 5,150 5,100 5,025 -1.0 -1.9 550 500 475 450 450 5.9 3.0 4,575 4,450 4,675 4,650 4,575 -1.6 -2.4 33,377 30,836 29,950 33,609 ... 1.9 -13.8 22,242 20,074 20,268 23,672 ... -7.1 -11.6 Restaurants & Bars 4,630 4,485 3,633 4,334 ... -2.5 -1.8 Gasoline, EBR 6,504 6,276 6,050 5,603 5,321 46.1 -23.9 2,577 2,597 2,347 2,203 2,032 2.4 -0.4 Contracting 6,063 6,901 4,372 5,274 ... -38.9 -32.4 Hotel/Motel 868 826 624 632 ... -15.9 -8.1 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Graham County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 15,000 14,950 14,850 14,800 14,650 -9.6 -7.2 12,900 12,925 12,875 12,800 12,375 -13.3 -14.3 2,100 2,025 1,975 2,000 2,275 18.2 82.2 14.0 13.5 13.3 13.5 15.5 30.7 96.9 8,125 8,300 8,250 8,225 7,775 -6.6 -9.2 Total Private 5,250 5,250 5,150 5,150 5,050 -10.6 -13.6 Goods‐Producing 1,025 1,025 1,000 950 925 -22.9 -28.0 Service‐Providing 7,100 7,275 7,250 7,275 6,850 -3.9 -5.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,400 1,400 1,425 1,475 1,375 -8.3 -10.6 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,825 2,825 2,725 2,725 2,750 -6.8 -8.4 Government 2,875 3,050 3,100 3,075 2,725 1.9 0.0 425 425 425 425 425 6.3 3.6 2,450 2,625 2,675 2,650 2,300 1.1 -0.6 18,423 22,524 17,080 22,413 ... -4.6 -23.2 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 14,033 18,104 12,841 17,546 ... -13.2 -25.5 Restaurants & Bars 1,738 1,899 1,669 2,123 ... 5.0 -11.6 Gasoline, EBR 2,651 2,521 2,571 2,743 2,871 91.1 -8.7 1,050 1,043 997 1,079 1,097 33.9 15.5 2,859 2,558 2,784 2,441 ... -49.5 -50.0 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting 24 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Greenlee County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 4,525 4,450 4,225 4,150 3,975 -12.2 -1.9 3,600 3,600 3,575 3,575 3,450 -13.2 -14.2 925 850 650 575 525 -4.5 200.8 20.4 19.1 15.4 13.9 13.2 8.7 206.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 3,125 3,100 3,075 3,025 3,050 -35.4 -37.1 Total Private 2,525 2,525 2,525 2,500 2,500 -40.5 -41.5 Goods‐Producing 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 -43.8 -44.8 Service‐Providing 1,100 1,075 1,050 1,000 1,025 -8.9 -10.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 225 200 225 200 200 -20.0 -18.9 Other Private Service‐Providing 275 300 275 275 275 -21.4 -22.9 Government 600 575 550 525 550 4.8 1.2 50 25 25 25 25 0.0 6.7 550 550 525 500 525 5.0 0.8 540 9,020 8,584 8,814 ... -26.4 -58.7 Retail 0 8,070 7,703 7,981 ... -28.3 -60.0 Restaurants & Bars 0 354 311 281 ... -36.4 -32.2 540 596 569 552 540 25.5 -47.6 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 214 247 221 217 206 -12.1 -32.2 Contracting 0 711 457 754 ... -89.0 -65.2 Hotel/Motel 427 530 335 307 ... -19.0 -36.7 La Paz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 7,950 7,750 7,850 8,000 8,000 4.9 3.2 7,250 7,050 7,175 7,300 7,200 4.3 1.4 700 700 675 700 800 10.3 24.6 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.8 10.0 5.2 20.9 4,950 4,900 4,975 5,000 5,050 2.0 -3.7 2,575 2,550 2,625 2,650 2,725 2.8 -3.2 Goods‐Producing 175 175 175 200 200 -27.3 -28.9 Service‐Providing 4,775 4,725 4,800 4,800 4,850 3.7 -2.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,250 1,225 1,225 1,250 1,250 6.4 0.2 Other Private Service‐Providing 1,150 1,150 1,225 1,200 1,275 6.3 -0.2 Government 2,375 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,325 1.1 -4.3 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private Federal Government 325 325 325 325 325 0.0 -0.6 2,050 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,000 1.3 -4.9 14,907 15,279 19,158 21,630 ... 15.1 -14.5 Retail 7,410 7,510 9,969 11,866 ... -1.5 -7.0 Restaurants & Bars 1,788 1,932 2,053 2,046 ... -13.7 1.2 Gasoline, EBR 5,709 5,837 7,137 7,718 7,978 44.2 -22.4 2,262 2,415 2,769 3,035 3,047 1.1 -1.4 327 2,160 1,756 2,224 ... -11.7 -22.0 587 458 359 454 ... 5.2 1.3 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 25 Arizona’s Economy Mohave County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jan 10 92,500 92,000 91,900 91,200 92,300 0.3 82,800 82,400 83,000 82,000 81,900 0.0 -3.8 9,700 9,600 8,900 9,200 10,400 3.0 34.0 10.5 10.4 9.7 10.1 11.3 2.6 35.2 46,600 46,800 47,100 46,500 45,900 -2.5 -8.2 Total Private 38,200 38,400 38,400 38,300 37,700 -3.1 -9.3 Goods‐Producing 5,700 5,600 5,600 5,500 5,500 -12.7 -27.4 2,900 2,800 2,800 2,700 2,700 -18.2 -34.8 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) -0.9 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 -6.7 -17.7 Service‐Providing 40,900 41,200 41,500 41,000 40,400 -1.0 -4.6 10,600 10,700 10,800 10,900 10,600 -2.8 -8.5 900 900 800 800 800 -11.1 -2.8 Financial Activities 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 0.0 -18.2 Professional and Business Services 3,200 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,200 -3.0 -6.0 Educational and Health Services 7,800 7,900 7,900 8,000 7,900 2.6 1.8 Leisure and Hospitality 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,000 5,900 1.7 -1.1 Other Services 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,100 2,100 -8.7 -7.9 Government 8,400 8,400 8,700 8,200 8,200 0.0 -2.7 500 500 500 500 500 0.0 5.0 7,900 7,900 8,200 7,700 7,700 0.0 -3.2 129,284 127,227 132,122 151,792 ... 2.8 -11.3 Retail 92,372 90,911 94,542 114,587 ... -4.2 -8.8 Restaurants & Bars 14,867 15,439 15,862 15,371 ... 2.7 -5.4 Gasoline, EBR 22,044 20,877 21,717 21,834 21,601 42.2 -20.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 8,734 8,638 8,426 8,585 8,250 -0.4 2.6 Contracting 29,077 18,147 25,068 23,515 ... -25.7 -16.6 Hotel/Motel 3,559 3,377 2,450 2,482 ... 6.5 -7.8 12 14 18 34 17 0.0 -52.2 12 14 18 28 17 0.0 -41.7 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 26 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Navajo County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jan 10 41,850 41,175 40,975 40,800 40,900 1.3 4.1 36,000 35,250 35,175 34,925 34,400 -0.7 -0.6 5,850 5,925 5,800 5,875 6,500 13.5 45.8 14.0 14.4 14.2 14.4 15.9 12.1 40.4 27,775 27,325 27,225 27,050 26,425 -4.1 -5.5 Total Private 17,525 17,150 17,050 16,825 16,300 -2.8 -7.1 Goods‐Producing 2,075 1,950 1,800 1,675 1,550 -30.3 -29.8 1,525 1,425 1,325 1,225 1,100 -31.3 -30.4 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 550 525 475 450 450 -28.0 -28.2 Service‐Providing 25,700 25,375 25,425 25,375 24,875 -1.8 -2.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,350 5,250 5,325 5,400 5,125 -1.0 -3.3 Information 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 2.4 6.2 450 450 450 450 450 -10.0 -13.0 Professional and Business Services 1,025 1,000 1,000 975 950 -5.0 -14.2 Educational and Health Services 3,550 3,600 3,600 3,625 3,600 4.3 3.3 Leisure and Hospitality 3,225 3,075 3,050 2,900 2,850 8.6 -5.0 Financial Activities Other Services 775 750 750 725 700 -6.7 -8.4 10,250 10,175 10,175 10,225 10,125 -6.0 -2.8 Federal Government 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,725 1,625 3.2 3.2 State and Local Government 8,450 8,425 8,475 8,500 8,500 -7.6 -3.9 85,183 76,698 75,684 82,196 ... 0.3 -13.7 64,883 57,410 58,009 64,156 ... -5.0 -11.4 7,908 6,948 5,860 5,954 ... -12.3 -6.8 12,392 12,341 11,815 12,086 11,059 25.5 -24.2 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 4,910 5,106 4,584 4,752 4,224 -12.0 -2.4 Contracting 12,003 11,839 14,181 7,807 ... -33.1 -31.5 Hotel/Motel 3,399 2,502 1,641 1,913 ... -6.2 -19.8 1 12 4 6 3 -40.0 -65.9 1 12 4 6 3 -40.0 -65.9 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 27 Arizona’s Economy Santa Cruz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 18,500 18,525 18,200 17,900 17,925 -3.0 2.1 15,275 15,300 15,450 15,300 15,175 -6.3 -2.3 3,225 3,225 2,750 2,600 2,750 20.9 38.4 17.4 17.4 15.1 14.5 15.3 24.6 36.1 12,400 12,550 12,625 12,525 12,325 -10.0 -7.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total Total Private 8,500 8,650 8,725 8,650 8,500 -13.3 -10.8 Goods‐Producing 775 800 750 750 775 -20.5 -20.3 Service‐Providing 11,625 11,750 11,875 11,775 11,550 -9.2 -6.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 4,725 4,900 5,000 5,000 4,875 -16.3 -8.9 Other Private Service‐Providing 3,000 2,950 2,975 2,900 2,850 -5.0 -11.3 Government 1.7 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,875 3,825 -1.9 Federal Government 1,575 1,575 1,575 1,550 1,550 1.6 5.6 State and Local Government 2,325 2,325 2,325 2,325 2,275 -4.2 -0.7 36,466 29,705 35,614 44,746 ... -7.7 -15.4 28,950 22,028 27,930 36,404 ... -11.6 -16.1 Restaurants & Bars 3,128 3,367 3,109 2,710 ... -28.0 -11.5 Gasoline, EBR 4,388 4,310 4,575 5,632 4,919 36.3 -8.8 1,738 1,783 1,775 2,215 1,879 -4.5 13.1 Contracting 4,675 4,393 5,390 5,117 ... -68.6 -45.1 Hotel/Motel 825 862 1,048 1,131 ... 4.9 -31.5 4 5 3 6 7 16.7 -52.5 4 5 3 6 7 16.7 -51.6 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 28 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona April 2010—Spring Issue Yavapai County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Jan 10 99,900 99,500 99,300 98,300 98,900 1.1 0.7 90,200 89,900 90,200 89,200 88,500 -0.1 -2.9 9,700 9,600 9,100 9,100 10,400 13.0 54.4 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.3 10.5 11.8 53.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 56,500 56,400 56,600 56,100 54,900 -4.2 -8.0 Total Private 45,100 44,800 45,100 45,000 43,900 -4.6 -9.0 Goods‐Producing 7,800 7,700 7,600 7,400 7,200 -15.3 -22.6 Mining and Construction 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,700 -17.5 -25.6 Manufacturing 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,500 2,500 -10.7 -16.0 Service‐Providing 48,700 48,700 49,000 48,700 47,700 -2.3 -5.2 11,600 11,600 11,800 11,900 11,600 -1.7 -6.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 500 500 500 500 500 -16.7 -15.3 Financial Activities 2,000 1,900 1,900 2,000 1,900 -5.0 -13.5 Professional and Business Services 3,400 3,400 3,500 3,400 3,300 -13.2 -12.3 Educational and Health Services 10,500 10,600 10,700 10,700 10,500 1.9 1.3 Leisure and Hospitality 7,200 7,100 7,100 7,100 6,900 -1.4 -7.7 Other Services 2,100 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 0.0 -2.0 11,400 11,600 11,500 11,100 11,000 -2.7 -4.1 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 -7.1 5.6 10,000 10,200 10,100 9,800 9,700 -2.0 -5.3 140,350 138,115 141,811 160,647 ... -2.4 -13.0 100,355 98,050 102,820 122,400 ... -8.4 -12.5 Restaurants & Bars 21,144 21,607 20,072 19,037 ... -4.9 -6.2 Gasoline, EBR 18,852 18,458 18,920 19,210 18,478 49.8 -18.5 7,469 7,637 7,341 7,553 7,058 5.0 3.7 Contracting 25,897 25,989 22,868 25,094 ... -45.2 -43.4 Hotel/Motel 7,710 8,251 6,795 4,872 ... -10.7 -17.5 40 42 26 151 16 -36.0 -31.5 35 37 19 19 16 -36.0 -39.4 Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 29 Arizona’s Economy Yuma County Sept 09 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC & EBR Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Jan 10 month 12‐mo. average 89,300 86,600 86,000 84,200 82,700 Employment 67,900 67,000 68,300 68,400 66,100 -5.7 -1.8 Unemployment 21,400 19,600 17,700 15,800 16,600 21.2 22.8 24.0 22.6 20.6 18.8 20.1 22.8 20.1 Unemployment Rate (%) -1.3 2.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC & EBR Total 48,800 48,900 49,800 49,800 48,500 -9.2 -7.0 Total Private 34,000 34,000 35,000 35,100 34,400 -11.8 -9.2 Goods‐Producing 4,400 4,300 4,600 4,500 4,500 -23.7 -25.0 Mining and Construction 2,900 2,800 2,800 2,700 2,700 -25.0 -26.3 Manufacturing 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,800 1,800 -21.7 -22.7 Service‐Providing 44,400 44,600 45,200 45,300 44,000 -7.4 -4.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,200 9,300 9,500 9,700 9,300 -17.7 -11.2 Information 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0.0 -4.0 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0.0 -0.5 Professional and Business Services 4,300 4,300 4,400 4,400 4,300 -6.5 -7.6 Educational and Health Services 6,500 6,500 6,700 6,700 6,600 0.0 1.4 Leisure and Hospitality 4,800 4,800 4,900 4,900 4,800 -14.3 -5.9 Other Services 1,600 1,600 1,700 1,700 1,700 -5.6 -7.3 14,800 14,900 14,800 14,700 14,100 -2.1 -1.2 3,800 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 2.8 4.7 11,000 11,200 11,100 11,000 10,400 -3.7 -3.1 Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail 117,332 112,529 147,169 173,284 ... -1.2 -12.5 Retail 86,203 92,588 109,786 134,040 ... -6.2 -9.9 Restaurants & Bars 13,487 1,533 16,343 18,305 ... 1.7 -7.6 Gasoline, EBR 17,641 18,408 21,040 20,939 20,975 26.4 -22.9 6,989 7,617 8,163 8,233 8,011 -11.4 -2.8 Contracting 24,772 21,271 17,688 18,053 ... -60.2 -28.5 Hotel/Motel 3,628 3,299 4,599 3,372 ... -7.8 -6.9 107 26 21 45 23 -41.0 0.7 47 26 21 45 23 -41.0 -8.2 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 30 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108 Phone: 520-621-2155 Fax: 520-621-2150 E-mail: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu Marshall J. Vest Director (520) 621-4075 mvest@eller.arizona.edu Alberta Charney, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 621-2291 acharney@eller.arizona.edu THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit: ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic data and objective forecasts and analyses. Copyright 2010 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The University of Arizona. Visit us online at ebr.eller.arizona.edu! Pia Montoya Database Specialist (520) 621-2523 pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu Lora Mwaniki-Lyman Research Economist (520) 626-6439 loramwa@eller.arizona.edu Maile L. 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