January 2010—Winter Issue Recovery for Arizona: When? How Strong? By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director December 1, 2009 Third quarter real GDP growth of 3.5% confirms that the U.S. recession ended before midyear. Recovery will be fragile and vulnerable during the coming year and it will be 2011 before it can be sustained by private-sector forces. In Arizona, the economy is still contracting and it will be well into next year before recessionary forces recede. A great deal of damage has been wreaked, and it will take years to repair. It will be 2013 or beyond before Arizona’s nonfarm employment returns to its prerecession levels and for unemployment to drop below 6%. 2.8%. Gains were widespread across the economy’s components including business investment, consumer spending, federal government outlays, exports, and even residential building activity. Only state and local government spending subtracted from growth, but the decline would have been much worse without the federal rescue money; more will be needed. Of the original $785 billion of stimulus originally approved by Congress, a little over $180 billion has been put into play through mid-November. The bulk of the remaining stimulus, over $300 billion, will be unleashed in 2010. Its contribution measures 0.8 percentage points added to GDP growth in 2009 and 1.3% to 2010. In November, Congress approved additional stimulus of $45 billion in the form of emergency unemployment insurance benefits and expansion of home buyer tax credits. An additional amount could be approved going forward. This is strong support that will continue to prop up demand until the private sector strengthens enough to sustain the recovery. Inside This Issue: RECOVERY FOR ARIZONA: WHEN? HOW STRONG? Marshall J. Vest CRISIS IN ARIZONA STATE GOVERNMENT 8 Marshall J. Vest The Treasury will spend a little over $500 billion of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) budget authority, which includes recent repayment of $95 billion by some of the largest banks. TARP has been used to support the auto sector, housing, and to provide capital to the financial system. Again, this is very strong support. THE ARIZONA‐SONORA BORDER REGION: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ALONG 1 THE BORDER 9 ECONOMIC FORECAST DATA 12 AZ ECONOMIC INDICATORS 11 Exhibit 1: Consumer Spending Will Not be a Driver Household Net Worth ($ trillions) 70 60 50 40 National Overview The U.S. economy is responding to massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus as evidenced by third quarter real GDP growth registering 1 30 95 97 Source: Federal Reserve Board 99 01 03 05 07 09 20 Arizona’s Economy In recent months, stress in financial markets has improved significantly. Interest rate spreads between high-grade and lower-rated corporate bonds, Treasury-Euro dollar (TED) spreads, and commercial paper spreads all have returned to historical levels. That does not mean that credit markets are back to normal, however. Banks are sitting on this infused liquidity and are still tightening credit standards. “All that’s needed now is for businesses to regain confidence that the recovery will During the recession, firms were quick to lay off workers. The downside, of course, is the deleterious effect on consumer spending and confidence. The upside is that productivity has soared along with profitability and business firms are sitting on a mountain of cash that’s ready to be spent for new equipment and additional workers. All that’s needed now is for businesses to regain confidence that the recovery will continue. continue.” What to expect for 2010 and beyond:  Historically, deep recessions have been followed by strong (V-shaped) recoveries, but recessions involving financial crisis are typically slow to recover as bank capital is arduously restored. This recovery is expected to be restrained by poor fundamentals for battered consumers and additional time required for credit markets to return to normal. Not until 2011 will the recovery move into higher gear, and 2013 before losses are recovered and expansion begins.  The inventory cycle has turned up and will continue to add 2% or more to GDP growth over the next few quarters.  Businesses will soon begin to replace workers who were cut during the recession. They also will boost spending on software and equipment (but not new buildings, which will continue to slide before reaching bottom in 2011). Businesses will be able to spend from record high hoards of cash and avoid still-tight credit markets.  As hiring resumes, discouraged workers will reenter the labor force and that will keep unemployment moving upward. Unemployment will peak by mid-year 2010 just shy of 11%. Exhibit 2: Tax Rates Are Low, Must Rise Effective Federal Personal Income Tax Rate 26 24 22 20 18 16 80 85 Source: IHS Global Insight 2 90 95 00 05 10 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 15 14 January 2010—Winter Issue     Consumers are still weary of potential layoffs, stagnant wages, and loss of wealth. Households have suffered a loss of $14 trillion in net worth during the recession. They still have a little over $50 trillion in total net worth, but it’s no longer as easy to tap as a couple years ago. In the aggregate, housing equity has fallen below 50%, and the ability to withdraw mortgage equity to bolster spendable cash is but a distant memory. Additionally, energy prices now are moving up and squeezing discretionary spending. Consumer spending (which accounts for two-thirds of GDP) is stabilizing but will not be a driver during the recovery (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 3: Arizona Still Losing Ground Coincident Indexes 300 NV AZ Short term interest rates will remain at current levels until late summer when the Federal Reserve begins to tighten. Long term rates will move higher with 10-year treasury yields rising to 4% by year end 2011. The dollar will continue falling in the near term which will boost exports. Longer term, accelerating inflation remains a risk, but not over the next year or two. Unemployment is high and still rising, wage inflation is moving lower, and there is a large amount of productive capacity that is currently idle. It will be 2013 or beyond before the economy approaches its full productive capacity. 250 200 CA 150 100 93 95 97 99 Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank 01 03 05 07 09 50 Expect new bubbles to surface. Some of the excess liquidity sloshing around the world is currently fueling bubbles in a few markets. Gold is the prime example currently, along with other commodities as well as real estate and stock markets in developing countries, primarily in Asia. Given current federal spending levels, a significant boost in taxes is unavoidable. Current projections show that over the next decade, the federal government deficit will grow by $8.0 trillion. By 2019, the deficit as a proportion of GDP will soar from 3.4% to 8.5%. (In fiscal year 2009 the deficit was 11.2% of GDP. The average over the past 40 years is 2.4%). Foreigners currently hold about $3.3 trillion of debt (a little over half of the total). It’s inconceivable that foreigners could provide the needed funds, even if they wanted to; likewise for domestic sources. Taxes must rise to get control of the deficit. As a percentage of personal income, the federal effective tax rate has fallen below 15%, a record low; it averaged between 20% and 24% over the 1980s and 1990s. It won’t be enough to boost taxes only on the wealthy; a broad-based increase is needed. Look for reductions or elimination of deductibility of mortgage interest and property taxes, a boost in capital gains rates, higher taxes on dividends and possibly taxation of employer-provided benefits. Some of the Bush tax cuts will be allowed to expire in 2011. And a national sales tax in the form of a value added tax is possible (Exhibit 2). “Current projections show that over the next decade, the federal government deficit will grow by $8.0 trillion. By 2019, the deficit as a proportion of GDP will soar from 3.4% to 8.5%. (In fiscal year 2009 the deficit was 11.2% of GDP. Arizona Will Lag Behind The Arizona economy suffered greatly during the recession, recording absolutely stunning losses. Arguably the hardest hit of any state, Arizona’s economy has suffered extensive damage that will require years to repair. The average over the past 40 years is 2.4%). .” The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Index shows that Arizona is one of 18 states whose index declined more than 1% during the three months ending in September. Most are in the southern tier and mountain states, but include the Pacific Northwest, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Hawaii. The index for each state is based on nonfarm employ- www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 Arizona’s Economy ment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and inflationadjusted wage and salary disbursements. The index is set equal to 100 in July 1992. Although this index provides little information beyond what one could learn by simply looking at employment, it provides a measure of comparison across states (Exhibit 3). “We expect employment to Labor Markets Are Moribund continue to decline, albeit at a much slower rate in Nonfarm employment in Arizona peaked in September of 2007, and during the following 24 months, nearly 275,000 jobs disappeared. That’s 10.3% of the workforce. Prior to the current recession the largest decline was the 4.7% drop during the 1974-75 re- coming months, and not bottom out until the third quarter of 2010.” cession. Losses during the 2001 recession were only 1.2%. The bad news is that employment is still declining. In September, jobs were still being lost at a 5.3% annual rate. The only good news is that this represents an improvement over the 10%-plus annual rate of decline during this year’s first quarter. We expect employment to continue to decline, albeit at a much slower rate in coming months, and not bottom out until the third quarter of 2010. With data through September, Exhibit 4 shows how industry sectors have fared during the past recession. The construction industry has been the hardest hit, losing nearly half of its job base; some 115,000 jobs have disappeared since May 2006. The next largest numerical loss is professional and business services, down 61,000. In percentage terms, mining has lost 22.6% of its jobs and manufacturing is down 21.4%. The only major sector to escape losses has been education and health services, which has added 21,700 jobs since the recession began in Arizona. Sectors that led the way into recession include information, which peaked 21 months early, manufacturing (17 months), construction (16), and financial services (6). Labor Market Outlook The outlook for employment is for losses to continue through next summer, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What Exhibit 4: Industry Employment During the Recession Employment by Sector, AZ Change Since Peak Arizona Peak Lead (Lag) Month # Months (000s) % 274.7 ‐10.3% Sep 07 ‐ Construction 115.3 ‐47.2% May 06 16 Professional & Business Services ‐61.1 ‐15.1% Oct 07 (1) Trade, Transportation & Utilities ‐57.6 ‐10.9% Nov 07 (2) Manufacturing ‐40.1 ‐21.4% Apr 06 17 Financial Services ‐23.6 ‐12.7% Mar 07 6 Leisure & Hospitality ‐15.9 ‐5.8% Dec 07 (3) Government ‐14.4 ‐3.3% Sep 08 (12) Information ‐7.4 ‐16.3% Dec 05 21 Other Services ‐6.7 ‐6.6% May 08 (8) Mining ‐3.2 ‐22.6% Sep 08 (12) Education and Health Services 21.7 7.1% still growing (24) Nonfarm Note: Education & Health Services jobs are still growing and have increased by 21,700 workers since September 2007. 4 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue will the ensuing recovery look like? Recoveries following the past two recessions, which were short and mild, were muted (“U”-shaped). Recoveries from the severe recessions of the mid1970s and the early 1980s advanced much more quickly (they were more “V”-shaped). Once employment hits bottom next year, gains will be slow (Exhibit 5). As clearly shown, the current cycle is much more severe than any ever seen in Arizona – it lasted nearly three years and dropped much deeper. However, recovery will be impeded by excess capacity of unoccupied houses and commercial space, which will postpone new construction; continued slides in manufacturing, information, and high technology sectors; extended time required to rebuild bank balance sheets; wary consumers; and budget crises leading to debilitating cuts in state and local government spending (which represents 20% of state GDP). Exhibit 5: Employment Recovery Will be Slow Recoveries Compared Nonfarm Employment, Arizona 150 140 130 120 trough =100 110 100 90 08 current 10 2001q4 12 1991q2 14 1982q3 16 80 1974q2 What to Expect Here’s a summary of what to expect for Arizona’s economy during 2010-11.     Arizona’s unemployment rate will continue to climb into the New Year and will top out at 10% during the first quarter. Unemployment will be slow to retreat and it will be 2014 before it drops below 6%. Nonfarm employment will bottom during the third quarter 2010, which means that on an average annual basis, employment growth will again be negative for 2010. Following a 7.1% plunge in 2009, employment will decline by 2.7% in 2010 and barely grow in 2011 (Exhibit 6). Exhibit 6: Employment Growth Will be Negative for 2010 Nonfarm Job Growth, AZ 8 6 4 Government payrolls will continue to shrink in 2010-11 as spending is trimmed to balance budgets. The public sector will lag behind the private sector by at least a year (probably two) as the recovery unfolds. The construction industry will continue to shed jobs in 2010. With homebuilding activity running at only 10% of its peak value and commercial construction about to disappear, there are still too many construction workers on the payroll (half still remain employed). Construction employment will dip below 90,000 in 2011, compared to 240,000 in 2006. 2 0 ‐2 ‐4 ‐6 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 ‐8 Arizona’s Economy  “Homebuilding turned the corner in March and moved  marginally higher over the ensuing six month period. ”  Homebuilding turned the corner in March and moved marginally higher over the ensuing six month period. This reflects demand from a niche market – some people only want a new home – and builders have reduced inventories to a very low level. But this doesn’t mean that homebuilding is about to move significantly higher. There are still tens-of-thousands of vacant homes that need to be absorbed before additional homes are added. Permits statewide will remain below 20,000 in 2010, then total 35,000 the following year. It will be 2013 before activity returns to a more normal pre-boom 60,000 annual rate (Exhibit 7). A large portion (perhaps half) of the recent jump in home sales is investors snapping up properties. Another wave of foreclosures is expected to bring additional properties to market. Home prices appear to be stabilizing but could retreat again before bottoming. These should be good investments over a five-year period and if renters can be found. Multifamily construction will total less than 2,000 units this year and only 3,000 next. Renters have disappeared in recent months in favor of renting a house or becoming a home owner (affordability is at record highs, mortgage rates are low, and the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers, which now extends into April 2010, have offered strong motivation). Others may be doubling up or moving in with relatives.  Commercial real estate markets are still in the early stages of the down cycle. According to Real Estate Analytics, commercial property prices nationwide have plunged 41% from the 2007 peak, and during the next three years more than $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans will need to be refinanced. Smaller banks that focus on these loans will be hard hit. Commercial brokerage houses will see activity increase as they scramble to find new owners for foreclosed properties.  Aggregate personal income of Arizonans (in current dollars) will decline in 2009 – the first time that’s ever happened. This measure will barely grow in 2010 and gain only 2.8% the following year. Wage increases economy wide will dip below two percent in each of the next two years, reflecting the abundance of available workers.  Consumer spending, as measured by Arizona retail sales, will bounce back as the Exhibit 7: Residential Construction has Bottomed-out Housing Recessions Compared Residential Permits, AZ 140 120 peak=100 100 80 60 40 20 05 06 07 current (47 mo, ‐84%) 73‐75 (26 mo, ‐75%) 84‐90 (83 mo, ‐81%) 6 08 09 10 99‐01 (34 mo, ‐19%) 78‐81 (38 mo, ‐69%) Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 11 12 0 January 2010—Winter Issue environment improves and pent up demand is satisfied. Expect retail sales to increase by 4.5% in 2010 and 10.4% in 2011, following back-to-back years of 9.5% declines during 2008 and 2009. Spending will reflect replacement needs rather than impulse-driven discretionary buying. It’s no longer shop ‘til you drop. Frugality is in. But from these depressed levels, double-digit percentage gains are a distinct possibility.  The 2010 Census of population will find 6.6 million Arizona residents. That’s after growth averaging only 1.0% over the past two years -- about 70,000 additional people per year; natural increase accounts for 55,000 of the 70,000 gain. Population growth accelerates in 2011 to a still-low 1.8% growth rate (Exhibit 8). In summary, the national recession may be over, but there is still a long way to go before the Arizona economy gets back to “normal.” For some lagging sectors, such as real estate and the public sector, it will be years. For now, it’s at least somewhat reassuring that the recession has ended. “In summary, the national recession may be over, but there is still a long way to go before the Arizona economy gets back to ‘normal’….For now, it’s at least somewhat reassuring that the recession has ended.” Exhibit 8: Growth Averages Only 1.0% Over the Past Two Years Annual Changes in Population Arizona 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 0 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Crisis in Arizona State Government By Marshall J. Vest “Arizona faces one of the nation’s most severe state budget crises... only California is in worse shape.” Arizona faces one of the nation’s most severe state budget crises. According to a recent report from the Pew Center on the States, Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril, only California is in worse shape. Rhode Island, Michigan, Oregon, Nevada, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and Wisconsin also face huge budget challenges. After cutting budgets significantly during the past two years, the state of Arizona this year is spending roughly $10.1 billion, but revenues of only $6.4 billion will be collected. $1.1 billion of federal stimulus money, coupled with additional cuts, fund sweeps, and sales of state buildings reduces the current-year shortfall to about $2 billion. The gap will grow to $3 billion -plus next year, and a structural deficit of similar size looms for as far as the eye can see. “No one knows how this catastrophe will play out….It will take years to recover from the damage that is being wreaked. “ 8 The budget gap cannot be closed through spending cuts alone. K-12 education spending totals roughly $4 billion, Medicaid and health $2 billion, community colleges and universities $1.3 billion, prisons $1 billion, $700 million for welfare, and $1 billion for everything else. Healthrelated spending is mandated either by the federal government or voters, K-12 is formula-driven and voter mandated, and federal stimulus dollars for K-12 and higher education are subject to “maintenance of effort” clauses that limit further cuts without forfeiting federal dollars. The bottom line is, you could lay off every state employee and not begin to balance the budget. You could entirely eliminate funding for higher education and not come close. Ditto for welfare programs such as food stamps, TANF, the disabled, unemployment insurance, assisted living, and programs for children such as child abuse, child care, and foster care. The 95th Arizona Town Hall that convened in early November found unequivocally the need to raise revenues (increase taxes) as well as cut spending. The Governor’s call for a temporary one-cent increase in the sales tax would raise nearly $1 billion over a 12-month period. That’s not nearly enough, but is a positive step toward providing an adequate revenue stream. Before rejecting out-of-hand the idea of a tax increase on the grounds that it will hurt the economy, consider that the series of tax cuts enacted since the mid-1990s has carved an estimated $2.6 billion from annual collections (in today’s dollars). Had legislators not passed permanent tax cuts based on temporary increase in revenues, we wouldn’t be in such a mess today. Permanent cuts were favored rather than adequately funding the Budget Stabilization Fund, which was quickly drained. So what would be so bad about simply reversing the earlier-enacted tax cuts? (The lion’s share targeted the individual income tax). Moreover, spending cuts hurt the economy just as much as tax increases. Some argue that spending cuts are even Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona more damaging. Nobel prize winner in economics, Joseph Stiglitz, prescribes that the way to inflict the least damage on the economy is to raise income tax rates on the highest tax brackets. A significant portion of the extra revenue raised comes from savings and therefore doesn’t directly affect consumption. Voter mandated spending absent of funding, mismanagement of the tax base, ideological roadblocks, and the two-thirds “supermajority” required to raise taxes, have created a crisis environment that’s inflicting substantial long-term damage on public institutions and infrastructure. (The supermajority actually gives power to the minority! It only takes 11 senators to block a tax increase.) No one knows how this catastrophe will play out. Neither legislative leaders nor the governor are subject to sanctions if they don’t produce a balanced budget. The state can (and is) borrowing to pay its obligations, and that will work as long as banks are willing to lend the state money. If a balanced budget is not produced, banks may cut off the state, leaving it to issue IOU’s (like California did a few years ago). Interest rates on state borrowing will surely rise. A shutdown of state government and bankruptcy are real possibilities. It will take years to recover from the damage that is being wreaked. January 2010—Winter Issue The Arizona-Sonora Border Region: A Review of Economic Integration along the Border1 By Alberta Charney, Ph.D., and Lora Mwaniki-Lyman2 The States of Arizona and Sonora represent a modernday model of regional integration molded on shared ecological systems and longstanding cultural, political, economic and social ties. These ties continue to evolve in the face of political, immigration and global challenges although more recent political and public attention has focused on the illegal flow of people and contraband between Mexico and the United States, and the security and humanitarian concerns of the southern border region. In 2008, Arizona and Sonora combined had an estimated population of 8,987,788 people, a 7.6 percent increase since 2005, with Arizona growing by 9.0 percent and Sonora by 3.9 percent. Border Crossings and Trade Flows The U.S.-Mexico border stretches 1,969 miles from San Diego-Tijuana in the west to Brownsville-Matamoros in the east and is estimated to be the most frequently crossed border in the world (see Exhibit 1). In 2008, nearly 212 million people crossed into the United States from Mexico through the U.S. border ports of entry (BPOE). Arizona and Sonora share a 361 mile long portion of the international border and accounted for about 14 percent of all persons crossing the border in 2008. These border 1 2 ports of entry not only serve as Arizona’s passageway to Mexico but as a fundamental gateway for U.S-Mexico trade. In 2008 alone, $20.78 billion worth of goods moved through the six BPOEs (imports and exports). This represented 33.3 percent of all trade flows between the United States and Mexico, down from the 36.3 percent reported in 2004. Of the $20.78 billion U.S. trade flow with Mexico, $13.9 billion were imports. Arizona-Sonora Border Economy quiladora employment in Mexico. For Mexico as a whole, employment in the maquiladora industry peaked in October of 2000 at 1,347,803. Employment in maquiladoras located in Sonora peaked in November of 2000. “The States of Arizona and Sonora represent a modern‐ day model of regional integration molded on shared During the 2001 U.S. recession, Sonora experienced the largest decline in employment relative to other border states, loosing 44,944 (26 percent) of employment, mostly linked to the U.S. manufacturing sector. As of December 2006, Sonora had regained most of the lost jobs but is yet to regain its peak. ecological systems and long‐standing cultural, political, economic and social ties. These ties continue to evolve in the face of political, immigration and The Border Economy has well- The downturn in maquiladora production was worsened by defined transborder industry the slump in U.S. manufacturclusters ranging from the fresh produce industry to high ing as a result of a strong dollar, low-wage competition -tech manufacturing sectors. Under the maquiladora proExhibit 1: U.S.— Mexico Border States gram, foreign companies import raw materials or inputs duty free, assemble them into final goods and export the final goods back to the foreign country duty free. global challenges …” The Mexican economy and mostly the maquiladora industry are highly dependent on the U.S. economy. It is estimated that over 60 percent of all Mexican imports are from the U.S. with over half of them destined for maquiladora. Most of the U.S. export commodities mentioned above end up in maquiladoras for assembly after which they are exported back to the U.S. as final goods. In 2006, Sonora was home to 210 maquiladora plants with 86,874 employees and 7.2 % of ma- Reprinted with permission of BBVA Compass. Contributors to this article include Maile L. Nadelhoffer, Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, and Valorie Rice. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9 Arizona’s Economy Exhibit 2: Mexican Visitor Spending Categories 2007—2008 as emerging markets and China entered the World Market and 2001 NAFTA rules that eroded duty free benefits for companies outsourcing from non-NAFTA member countries. These structural changes in the maquiladora sector resulted in losses in employment in certain sectors such as textile and apparel. Proximity to the U.S., quick turnarounds, a focus on high value-added products, a highly-skilled labor force capable of being innovative and protection of intellectual rights are some of the reasons the maquiladora sector is holding its own. Mexican Visitors to Arizona and Their Impacts Exhibit 3: Mexican Visitors to Arizona (percent total job impact) Travel and tourism continues to be an important export industry driving Arizona’s economy. There were more than 24 million legal aliens crossing the border from Mexico into Arizona between July 2007 and June 2008, 99 percent of whom were residents of the state of Sonora. The volume and impact of Mexican visitors to Arizona powerfully illustrates the economic interdependence of Arizona and Sonora. Leisure activities are the primary reason for 64 percent of all visitor parties. Businessrelated reasons are the primary reasons for the remaining 36 percent of visits 3. Mexican visitor spending in Arizona was almost $2.7 billion in 2007-2008, a figure more than double the estimated spending in 2001. This spending occurred in mostly retailing, lodging, grocery stores and restaurants (Exhibit 2). Almost 23,400 wage and salary jobs in Arizona are directly attributable to Mexican visitor spending, Exhibit 3. Through local purchases of supplies by businesses and the spending of income derived from visitor -related jobs, these visitors generated almost 7,000 additional jobs in Arizona in 200708. These 30,400 jobs account for a total personal income of $837 million and $3.61 billion in gross sales. The largest amount of Mexican visitor spending occurred in Pima County, a county that includes Tucson and extends all the way to the U.S.-Mexico border (Exhibit 4). Pima County was the recipient of almost $1 billion in Mexican visitor spending and 41.2 percent of the total job impact. (table) Maricopa County, containing the state’s largest metropolitan area and capital city, Phoenix, received the 2nd largest amount of spending ($694 million) and the 2nd largest share of the total job impact, 26.6%. Although Pima and Maricopa Counties received the largest spending, the county most reliant on Mexican visitor spending is Santa Cruz County, which contains the largest BPOE. Mexican visitors account for 23.6 percent of all jobs in that county (Exhibit 5). Mexican visitor spending has particularly salient impacts on the taxable sales in Arizona’s border counties. Mexican visitor spending generates a staggering 48.6 percent of the total taxable sales in Santa Cruz County, 6.3 percent of taxable sales in Yuma County, 5.3 percent in Cochise County, 5.2 percent in Pima County and only 0.8 percent in Mari- Pavlakovich-Kochi, V. and Charney A., Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and economic Impacts, 2007-2008, a report prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism by the Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, December 2008. http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/research/ mexican_visitors_to_arizona_2007_08.pdf 3 10 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue copa County. The larger the county and the further away the county is from the border, the smaller the share of total taxable sales attributable to Mexican visitor spending. Each day, on average, more than 65,000 Mexican residents come to Arizona to work, visit friends and relatives, recreate and shop. Each day, they spend over $7,350,000 in Arizona’s stores, restaurants, hotels and other businesses, and thus contribute substantially to Arizona’s export trade with Mexico. “Each day, on average, more than 65,000 Mexican residents come to Arizona to work, visit friends and relatives, recreate and shop. Each day, they spend Exhibit 4: Arizona Counties over $7,350,000 in Arizona’s stores, restaurants, hotels and other businesses.and thus contribute substantially to Arizona’s export trade with Mexico.’” Exhibit 5: Mexican Visitors to Arizona (Direct Spending Impact) www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Arizona’s Economy Forecast Tables Arizona 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 223185 217393 218352 224363 2.1 -2.6 0.4 2.8 238352 6.2 34335.1 33083.3 32886.4 33202.6 34495.2 -0.2 -3.6 -0.6 1 3.9 77589.7 70448.9 73881.5 80945.5 87878.2 -5.2 -9.2 4.9 9.6 8.6 10907.3 11309.9 11611 12166.3 12743.3 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales 5.7 3.7 2.7 4.8 4.7 49183.4 44512.8 46522.1 51343.1 56016.5 -9.6 -9.5 4.5 10.4 9.1 9386.2 8889.7 9378 10131.5 11042.3 % change -2.6 -5.3 5.5 8 9 Gasoline Sales 8372 6018.2 6654.2 7601 8387.3 7.6 -28.1 10.6 14.2 10.3 2618.2 2431.3 2364.4 2383.6 2477.9 % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction -2.1 -7.1 -2.7 0.8 4 13.5 11.7 10.6 10.2 10.4 18 -13.6 -9.5 -3.4 1.4 186.2 131.1 99.4 88.2 103.1 % change -17.2 -29.6 -24.2 -11.2 16.9 Manufacturing 173.2 138.6 140.5 148.3 157.3 % change Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change -4.7 -20 1.4 5.5 6.1 516.2 486.1 473.1 478 495 -2.2 -5.8 -2.7 1 3.6 41.8 40.2 37.1 39 38.8 -1.5 -4 -7.6 5 -0.5 387 349.9 333.3 332.8 347.5 -4 -9.6 -4.7 -0.1 4.4 269.6 257.7 253.5 257.3 266.7 -1.2 -4.4 -1.6 1.5 3.6 433.6 423.7 416.2 412.1 417 3 -2.3 -1.8 -1 1.2 6500.2 6571.1 6639.6 6757.4 6909.7 2.3 1.1 1 1.8 2.3 5.5 8.8 7.7 6.7 6.6 50624.2 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Unemployment Rate, percent Residential Permits (units) 25026.4 13689.6 19432.7 35252.5 % change -48.4 -45.3 42 81.4 43.6 Single family 17709 11791.3 16371.7 30853.6 44610.2 % change -51.8 -33.4 38.8 88.5 44.6 Multi‐family 7317.4 1898.3 3061 4398.9 6014 % change -37.8 -74.1 61.3 43.7 36.7 2715.3 2641 2692 2794.7 2925.6 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Civilian Nonag Wage Rate % change 12 -5 -2.7 1.9 3.8 4.7 44353.6 45369.3 46234.5 47062 48048.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Forecast Tables Phoenix‐Mesa MSA 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 149902.6 143357.6 144078.5 148987.3 159885.7 2.3 -4.4 0.5 3.4 7.3 35008 33108 32749 33104 34514 -0.5 -5.4 -1.1 1.1 4.3 53731.9 47330.9 49745.3 54766.5 60444.7 -6.4 -11.9 5.1 10.1 10.4 7792.4 6825.1 6996.0 7328.3 7754.6 4.5 -12.4 2.5 4.8 5.8 33982.4 30551.7 32064.9 35751.9 39972.5 -11.1 -10.1 5.0 11.5 11.8 6558.7 6186.4 6465.2 6943.1 7574.8 -2.8 -5.7 4.5 7.4 9.1 5398.4 3767.6 4219.2 4743.2 5142.8 9.2 -30.2 12.0 12.4 8.4 1867.8 1727.5 1676.4 1699.1 1784.5 -2.5 -7.5 -3.0 1.4 5.0 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction 21.4 -12.4 -10.1 6.1 7.5 139.4 100.6 68.8 59.4 75.9 % change -17.7 -27.8 -31.6 -13.7 27.7 Manufacturing 130.1 98.5 100.4 104.8 111.6 % change -5.2 -24.3 1.9 4.3 6.5 372.2 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 383.3 360.8 347.7 354.5 % change -2.2 -5.9 -3.6 2.0 5.0 Information 31.5 29.8 28.6 31.3 31.0 % change 1.2 -5.5 -3.9 9.3 -0.9 310.3 281.9 271.3 271.9 284.8 -4.6 -9.2 -3.7 0.2 4.7 185.2 176.2 176.0 181.2 188.7 -0.6 -4.8 -0.1 2.9 4.1 245.5 238.2 234.5 233.3 238.4 2.8 -3.0 -1.6 -0.5 2.2 4281.9 4330.1 4399.4 4500.6 4632.5 Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Goverment % change OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) 2.8 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 18533 9808 13288 25190 39282 % change -50.3 -47.1 35.5 89.6 55.9 Single family 12657 7900 11400 22406 35147 % change -52.1 -37.6 44.3 96.5 56.9 4135 Multi‐family 5876 1908 1888 2785 % change -45.9 -67.5 -1.0 47.5 48.5 1736.2 1654.8 1709.4 1745.8 1795.5 -4.7 -4.7 3.3 2.1 2.8 3.11 2.28 2.47 2.72 2.86 14.6 -26.8 8.4 10.1 5.4 48809 49213 50472 51633 52896 3.8 0.8 2.6 2.3 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate % change www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 2.4 Arizona’s Economy Forecast Tables Tucson MSA 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 INCOME Personal Income ($mill) % change Per capita Personal Income ($) % change 32655.4 32013.6 32802.9 34252.2 3.2 -2.0 2.5 4.4 36674.4 7.1 32268 31417 31698 32384 33824 1.6 -2.6 0.9 2.2 4.4 11521.8 10269.2 10746.5 11778.9 12885.8 -3.9 -10.9 4.6 9.6 9.4 1821.6 1619.3 1692.0 1789.5 1889.1 5.3 -11.1 4.5 5.8 5.6 7159.4 6443.5 6710.6 7387.5 8144.7 -8.1 -10.0 4.1 10.1 10.2 1421.2 1371.1 1437.9 1579.2 1738.6 -2.3 -3.5 4.9 9.8 10.1 1119.6 835.3 905.8 1022.7 1113.4 11.1 -25.4 8.4 12.9 8.9 381.4 363.2 360.6 371.3 389.4 -1.0 -4.8 -0.7 3.0 4.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 10.0 -20.0 -0.3 4.0 2.3 SALES ($millions) Retail Sales (current dollars) % change Food Sales % change Retail Sales less Food % change Restaurant and Bar Sales % change Gasoline Sales % change EMPLOYMENT (000s) Non Farm Employment % change Mining % change Construction 22.7 17.9 16.4 18.3 22.1 % change -14.1 -21.2 -8.6 11.9 20.4 Manufacturing 27.1 25.2 24.2 24.5 25.4 % change -1.5 -6.8 -3.9 1.3 3.4 62.4 57.6 57.4 59.2 62.2 -2.9 -7.8 -0.3 3.1 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 -11.6 -9.0 -1.2 2.3 0.0 51.4 46.8 44.6 45.2 47.9 -2.3 -9.0 -4.6 1.2 6.0 39.8 38.9 39.1 40.5 42.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % change Information % change Professional & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change -0.8 -2.5 0.5 3.7 4.7 Government 80.6 79.1 78.7 79.6 81.2 % change 3.5 -1.8 -0.6 1.2 2.0 1012 1019 1034.9 1057.7 1084.3 1.5 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.5 9341 OTHER INDICATORS Population (000s) % change Residential Permits (units) 3221 2227 5454 7968 % change -38.5 -30.9 145.0 46.1 17.2 Single family 2743 2109 5148 7697 9060 % change -41.6 -23.1 144.1 49.5 17.7 282 Multi‐family 478 118 307 271 % change -11.3 -75.4 160.6 -11.6 3.9 360.1 366.9 367 376.4 388.7 Gasoline Sales (mill of gals) % change Unleaded Gasoline Price, PHX ($) % change Aggregate Earnings Rate -3.1 1.9 0.0 2.6 3.3 3.10 2.30 2.50 2.70 2.90 14.6 -26.8 8.4 10.1 5.4 39973 39538 40261 41018 41837 2.2 -1.1 1.8 1.9 % change 14 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 2.0 January 2010—Winter Issue * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona * all numbers & analysis from EBR's November 2009 forecast (next forecast update: November, 2009). SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS for the Arizona Economic Indicators: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C‐40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Arizona’s Economy Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 3,158.6 3,165.6 3,174.7 3,160.1 3,150.6 -0.9 1.1 2,876.3 2,864.6 2,879.1 2,866.8 2,855.7 -4.1 -2.1 282.3 301.0 295.6 293.3 294.9 46.4 60.1 8.7 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.3 51.1 56.5 2,405.3 2,382.2 2,397.7 2,409.2 2,422.4 -6.8 -6.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 -22.4 -12.8 Construction 141.4 138.9 138.6 138.4 136.3 -23.8 -25.6 Durable Goods Manufacturing 130.2 129.7 129.4 128.7 128.6 -7.2 -6.0 Fabricated Metal Products 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.8 -8.2 -9.9 Computer and Electronic Prod. 40.1 39.5 39.3 39.0 38.9 -6.7 -4.2 Aerospace Products and Parts 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 3.2 2.9 32.9 30.5 30.9 31.5 31.5 -9.0 -6.9 Non‐Durable Goods Manufacturing Wholesale Trade 99.4 98.3 97.5 96.7 97.8 -8.5 -7.1 294.4 292.2 290.6 288.3 290.9 -6.5 -8.5 Utilities 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 -2.3 -2.0 Transportation and Warehousing 69.5 69.8 69.9 69.3 69.2 -6.6 -5.2 Information 39.2 39.2 39.3 38.5 38.5 -6.8 -6.3 121.9 122.3 121.6 121.1 121.9 -2.4 -2.2 Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 45.6 44.5 44.0 44.1 44.0 -12.7 -10.4 340.6 341.0 340.0 340.3 345.2 -9.2 -10.9 43.3 41.3 42.0 43.0 43.9 -4.1 -3.9 274.3 275.5 275.9 275.2 277.3 0.0 1.0 31.9 31.0 30.6 31.3 31.3 -10.8 -8.5 47.6 47.2 46.6 45.9 45.9 -3.8 -2.4 180.7 176.6 175.7 173.5 176.1 -1.8 -4.7 Other Services 94.7 93.9 92.9 91.7 90.5 -9.0 -6.0 Federal Government 57.1 57.5 57.2 56.9 57.1 3.6 4.8 337.3 329.4 351.5 371.2 372.8 -4.9 -1.7 161.4 153.5 178.9 200.7 203.4 -4.1 -0.4 39.4 38.8 38.1 38.1 38.8 -2.5 -3.8 Construction 19.34 19.69 19.52 19.59 19.81 3.4 4.4 Manufacturing 17.10 17.02 16.89 17.07 17.18 4.9 4.6 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 15.44 15.46 15.61 15.55 15.53 2.6 3.7 Retail Trade 13.15 13.24 13.37 13.47 13.44 6.9 5.3 Wholesale Trade 21.31 21.40 21.49 21.08 21.07 5.7 6.4 Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC Arizona monthly data continued next page... 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Arizona ‐ Monthly , continued... Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 5,811,346 5,473,387 5,681,966 5,500,770 ... -11.3 -12.6 3,601,211 3,370,920 3,535,307 3,371,660 ... -12.9 -13.6 Food, EBR 932,491 890,659 887,006 906,480 ... 1.6 4.5 Restaurants & Bars 707,799 665,044 672,780 686,674 ... -4.4 -5.9 Gasoline, EBR 569,845 546,764 586,872 535,956 ... -25.9 -34.7 -3.5 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 213,705 222,235 221,704 212,344 ... -1.1 Utilities 894,605 1,026,534 1,054,419 962,019 ... 3.1 -2.5 Communications 223,296 227,704 227,685 224,676 ... -3.3 -19.5 89,858 74,526 68,617 58,723 ... -16.5 -10.9 Amusements Rentals ‐ Personal Property 265,559 252,209 230,312 243,140 ... -13.4 -2.7 1,000,094 906,472 840,541 821,544 ... -43.9 -33.8 71,631 83,321 98,784 544,079 ... 299.7 -40.0 131,091 124,009 120,446 135,667 ... -18.1 -16.1 1,606 2,002 1,197 1,144 1,084 -13.5 -50.9 Single Family Units 1,592 1,667 1,187 1,026 1,074 28.0 -35.8 2‐4 Unit Structures 4 2 2 23 5 -84.4 -87.5 10 333 8 95 5 -98.7 -82.4 Contracting Mining ‐ Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 5‐plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total 3,102 3,174 3,078 3,323 3,342 7.1 70.4 Chapter 7 2,512 2,632 2,526 2,721 2,717 -0.2 74.3 Chapter 11 58 39 50 53 50 -3.8 49.9 Chapter 13 532 503 502 549 574 67.3 55.4 Arizona ‐ Quarterly 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II % change vs. year ago for most recent: 09 III quarter 4‐QTR average Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase 6511.9 6533.5 6551.2 6565.0 6577.8 1.0 1.5 13.7 13.1 12.5 12.0 14.9 8.5 -5.7 Births 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.2 26.1 5.7 -3.6 Deaths 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.2 11.2 2.1 -1.1 9.7 6.6 3.1 0.1 -1.4 -114.7 -89.1 223,492 222,004 219,404 218,060 215,992 -3.4 -1.9 159,525 158,027 154,790 151,493 150,099 -5.9 -4.3 17,709 17,598 17,522 17,309 17,123 -3.3 -2.0 760 739 725 710 704 -7.4 -4.7 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 43,404 42,770 41,359 39,787 38,824 -10.6 -5.6 Plus: Transfer Payments 37,512 38,066 40,052 43,378 43,489 15.9 13.1 116,906 115,939 113,048 110,300 109,050 -6.7 -4.8 Other Labor Income EBR 25,280 25,296 25,440 25,221 25,014 -1.1 -0.3 Proprietor's Income 17,339 16,793 15,933 15,854 ... -8.8 -6.3 166 106 -107 11 ... -93.3 -86.3 Net Migrati on Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries Farm Nonfarm 17,173 16,687 16,040 15,843 ... -7.9 -4.8 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 34,321 33,979 33,491 33,215 32,837 -4.3 -3.3 Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 44,084 44,680 44,172 44,222 ... 0.8 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 1.5 17 Arizona’s Economy Travel and Tourism ‐ Monthly Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona 2,212,519 2,197,209 2,467,640 1,801,544 1,504,451 7.4 -0.6 Historical 144,297 120,585 131,766 135,023 125,287 -6.2 -1.0 Scenic 767,179 873,888 821,389 625,414 511,815 1.3 -2.8 1,301,043 1,202,736 1,514,485 1,041,107 867,349 13.8 0.9 157,130 144,233 127,212 129,828 177,133 -10.6 -3.3 Historical 14,569 20,688 12,428 23,634 28,761 -0.4 -2.3 Scenic 93,911 79,608 77,000 72,583 112,444 -18.0 -6.9 Water Based Recreation 48,650 43,937 37,784 33,611 35,928 11.7 13.6 Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona International Border Crossings, USBCBP Passengers 1,367,281 1,515,668 1,455,940 1,379,283 1,235,419 -15.9 -10.4 Pedestrians 589,153 614,722 673,295 603,910 652,764 -19.5 -27.6 Vehicles 630,360 639,244 644,710 607,977 638,107 0.1 -5.0 Inflation and Prices ‐ Monthly Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Consumer Price Index (1982‐1984=100) BLS U.S. ‐ All Urban 215.7 215.4 215.8 216.0 216.2 -0.2 -0.6 U.S. ‐ Wage Earners 211.0 210.5 211.2 211.3 211.5 -0.3 -1.1 Inflation and Prices ‐ Quarterly 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II 09 III % change vs. year ago for most recent: quarter 4 –QTR avg. Consumer Price index (1982‐84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) 222.9 217.6 216.8 218.8 219.9 -1.4 -0.3 U.S. ‐ All Urban Consumers 219.3 213.1 212.0 214.3 215.7 -1.6 -0.3 U.S. ‐ Urban Wage Earners 215.5 208.1 206.5 209.2 211.0 -2.1 -0.8 Gross Domestic Product 109.1 109.2 109.7 109.7 109.8 0.6 1.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 110.3 108.9 108.4 108.8 109.5 -0.7 0.3 Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA For historical data and additional data series, subscribe to the EBR Database Online. The Economic and Business Research Center has maintained economic indicators on the State of Arizona since 1949. The EBR Database Online builds upon this large and up-to-date database to provide economic and socio-demographic data series in simple, easy to generate reports online. To subscribe visit : http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 2122.5 2118.9 2124.4 2115.4 2114.4 -1.5 0.7 1946.8 1933.6 1941.9 1932.7 1929.8 -4.6 -2.4 175.7 185.3 182.5 182.7 184.6 51.3 66.7 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 55.4 66.5 1711.8 1691.3 1700.5 1707.1 1720.9 -7.3 -7.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 -15.8 -10.7 105.0 103.4 103.4 103.1 101.4 -24.6 -25.9 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Durable Goods 98.2 97.1 97.0 96.4 96.3 -7.7 -5.7 Computer and Electronic Prod. 36.6 36.0 35.8 35.5 35.4 -6.8 -4.0 Aerospace Products and Parts 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.8 2.6 3.1 Non‐Durable Goods 24.9 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.2 -12.5 -8.4 Wholesale Trade 83.5 84.0 83.3 82.7 83.5 -5.6 -5.3 208.5 206.8 206.3 203.7 206.8 -6.0 -8.4 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 1.1 0.7 Transportation and Warehousing 53.7 52.2 52.0 51.4 51.6 -11.0 -7.5 Information 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.8 -5.1 -3.5 105.6 105.8 104.9 104.3 105.1 -2.9 -2.4 Retail Trade Utilities Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 34.7 33.9 33.6 33.5 33.4 -14.8 -10.5 271.2 271.5 270.5 270.7 275.6 -9.3 -11.5 33.9 32.6 33.2 33.6 34.3 -2.6 -1.1 182.1 182.6 182.7 182.7 184.7 0.1 0.8 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 25.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 -3.5 -2.8 Accommodation 28.8 28.2 28.0 27.6 28.0 -6.0 -1.5 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 126.6 123.7 123.1 122.0 123.7 -1.4 -4.4 Other Services 70.1 69.5 68.6 67.9 66.7 -11.1 -4.6 Federal Government 22.8 23.1 22.8 22.7 23.0 0.4 2.8 193.9 186.2 200.4 214.3 216.5 -5.9 -2.7 89.8 83.1 99.2 113.9 115.9 -5.1 -1.6 3,864,901 3,585,227 3,736,901 3,649,214 ... -15.0 -14.9 2,472,126 2,280,992 2,396,922 2,303,095 ... -14.6 -14.5 Food, EBR 562,725 537,481 535,277 547,028 ... -14.2 -8.0 Restaurants & Bars 485,211 442,013 449,681 470,289 ... -4.9 -6.5 Gasoline, EBR 344,838 324,741 355,022 328,801 ... -29.3 -36.0 Contracting 674,224 618,304 564,951 550,605 ... -45.9 -37.3 Hotel/Motel 65,177 56,703 56,113 67,729 ... -24.5 -19.5 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 1,209 1,244 794 714 757 -18.8 -56.0 Single Family Units 1,209 1,234 794 663 754 40.9 -35.8 2‐4 Unit Structures 0 0 0 9 3 -88.0 -93.1 5‐plus Unit Structures 0 10 0 42 0 -100.0 -88.2 1,469,369 1,594,319 1,364,139 1,383,759 1,381,032 20.8 0.2 8,286 9,095 8,008 7,907 8,121 50.8 53.2 177,332 175,296 170,347 175,004 170,057 -19.9 -35.6 3,189,822 3,344,775 3,174,009 2,838,459 ... -0.8 -7.6 37,382 38,688 38,093 35,977 ... -4.9 -11.7 Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 Arizona’s Economy Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Quarterly 08 II 08 III 08 IV 09 I % change vs. year ago for most recent 09 II quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 4,286.2 4,299.1 4,311.6 4,323.8 4,336.0 1.2 1.5 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.5 6.3 3.6 Births 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.4 4.8 3.2 Deaths 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 2.3 2.5 5.2 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 -88.0 -92.6 149,802 147,772 145,812 144,176 142,540 -4.8 -3.3 116,454 114,230 112,061 110,202 108,344 -7.0 -5.0 13,152 12,942 12,738 12,564 12,391 -5.8 -4.1 -3.5 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence -197 -199 -200 -202 -204 -3.4 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 24,861 24,144 23,460 22,822 22,183 -10.8 -8.6 Plus: Transfer Payments 21,837 22,539 23,229 23,918 24,607 12.7 12.8 34,950 34,373 33,819 33,344 32,874 -5.9 -4.6 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Apache County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Oct 09 22,850 23,375 23,175 22,525 22,350 1.6 19,425 19,650 19,625 19,175 18,850 -3.0 5.3 0.9 3,425 3,725 3,550 3,350 3,500 35.9 44.6 15.0 15.9 15.3 14.9 15.7 33.8 37.6 19,525 19,700 19,650 19,300 19,150 -5.9 -3.5 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 6,300 6,325 6,225 6,250 6,300 -11.6 -12.5 Goods‐Producing 925 900 900 900 900 -16.3 -1.8 Service‐Providing 18,600 18,800 18,750 18,400 18,250 -5.3 -3.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,700 1,775 1,675 1,700 1,750 -7.9 -12.3 Other Private Service‐Providing 3,675 3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650 -12.0 -14.9 13,225 13,375 13,425 13,050 12,850 -2.8 1.5 Federal Government 3,475 3,375 3,525 3,500 3,500 8.5 2.8 State and Local Government 9,750 10,000 9,900 9,550 9,350 -6.5 1.0 15,733 15,544 14,730 14,594 ... -14.1 -20.1 Retail 7,991 7,781 7,097 7,462 ... -12.0 -17.3 Restaurants & Bars 1,235 1,396 1,094 1,172 ... 16.2 10.6 Gasoline, EBR 6,507 6,367 6,539 5,960 ... -20.6 -27.9 6.6 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,440 2,588 2,470 2,361 ... 5.9 Contracting 6,105 7,672 10,751 6,553 ... -40.6 1.1 Hotel/Motel 1,895 1,744 1,589 1,443 ... -17.9 -6.2 20 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Tucson MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 486.4 491.0 492.2 493.0 491.0 0.1 2.8 446.6 448.8 451.3 452.1 449.8 -2.6 0.1 39.8 42.2 40.9 40.9 41.2 45.1 55.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.3 45.6 51.8 354.6 354.1 356.5 361.6 362.2 -5.1 -4.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 -35.0 -23.3 Construction 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 15.8 -25.5 -27.8 Manufacturing 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.3 -3.3 -3.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 3.3 2.7 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 -1.1 -2.7 39.1 38.9 37.9 38.1 37.8 -9.4 -10.0 Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.7 -1.1 -5.4 Information 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 -14.6 -17.4 Financial Activities 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.6 -3.5 -3.1 Professional and Business Services 47.2 47.4 46.5 46.8 46.9 -10.5 -7.8 Educational and Health Services 57.8 57.8 58.9 59.1 59.5 1.9 2.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 2.0 -2.5 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 -4.3 -1.9 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 27.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.0 -4.8 -4.2 Other Services 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.6 -4.6 -6.5 Federal Government 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 6.1 8.3 State and Local Government 62.2 62.8 66.3 71.2 71.4 -1.5 0.4 35.2 35.9 39.7 45.0 45.4 -1.1 2.3 State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 849,845 821,568 876,902 815,905 ... -9.8 -11.9 Retail 528,314 512,156 558,318 500,687 ... -8.7 -11.7 Food, EBR 133,508 127,519 126,996 129,784 ... -12.9 -6.8 Restaurants & Bars 105,574 102,043 105,384 106,612 ... -3.0 -3.2 82,449 79,849 86,203 78,822 ... -18.6 -30.9 Contracting 122,365 115,269 108,952 109,383 ... -44.3 -26.1 Hotel/Motel 15,009 14,257 14,167 16,661 ... -15.8 -11.5 244 229 207 222 176 13.5 -44.9 230 210 205 220 174 24.3 -34.7 14 19 2 2 2 -86.7 -87.0 237,997 249,548 195,634 185,933 199,843 7.2 -16.4 1,139 1,184 980 945 1,021 20.7 1.7 208,952 210,767 199,626 196,755 195,733 -11.1 -17.9 294,958 302,284 282,600 268,638 316,069 -5.4 -16.0 14,523 13,958 13,610 12,847 15,256 -3.7 -20.0 Gasoline, EBR New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 21 Arizona’s Economy Tucson MSA ‐ Quarterly 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II % change vs. year ago for most recent 09 III quarter 4 –QTR avg. Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 1012.6 1014.5 1016.3 1018.1 1019.8 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 8.9 3.8 Births 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.2 2.6 Deaths 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 -70.7 -84.4 32,692 32,467 32,254 32,094 31,933 -2.3 -1.1 20,921 20,584 20,259 19,977 19,696 -5.9 -4.2 2,431 2,402 2,374 2,351 2,327 -4.3 -2.8 180 178 176 174 172 -4.4 -3.7 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 7,293 7,128 6,971 6,831 6,690 -8.3 -6.1 Plus: Transfer Payments 6,730 6,978 7,222 7,462 7,702 14.5 14.2 32,286 32,004 31,737 31,524 31,312 -3.0 -2.0 Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Cochise County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 63,125 63,200 63,225 62,725 62,250 2.0 58,525 58,425 58,650 58,100 57,675 0.3 1.3 4,600 4,775 4,575 4,625 4,575 30.7 37.4 7.3 7.6 7.2 7.4 7.3 28.1 33.4 37,000 36,700 36,800 36,875 36,975 -2.3 -3.2 Total Private 24,750 24,475 24,275 24,275 24,325 -3.2 -5.4 Goods‐Producing 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,400 2,375 -8.7 -17.5 1,775 1,725 1,725 1,750 1,725 -6.8 -18.1 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) 3.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 625 625 575 650 650 -13.3 -15.9 Service‐Providing 34,600 34,350 34,500 34,475 34,600 -1.8 -2.0 6,100 6,025 5,875 5,875 5,950 -8.1 -8.8 Information 450 425 425 425 425 -10.5 160.0 Financial Activities 650 625 625 625 625 -7.4 -36.0 Professional and Business Services 5,950 5,875 6,050 6,050 6,025 1.7 -10.4 Educational and Health Services 4,075 3,975 3,900 3,900 3,875 -5.5 4.4 Leisure and Hospitality 4,275 4,350 4,400 4,300 4,350 9.4 1.4 850 850 700 700 700 -22.2 43.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services Government 12,250 12,225 12,525 12,600 12,650 -0.6 1.6 Federal Government 5,225 5,275 5,225 5,200 5,150 2.0 5.5 State and Local Government 7,025 6,950 7,300 7,400 7,500 -2.3 -1.0 86,332 81,493 81,912 76,260 ... -12.3 -10.7 Retail 64,096 58,981 59,140 55,774 ... -8.4 -6.0 Restaurants & Bars 10,177 10,743 10,330 9,498 ... -3.9 -1.5 Gasoline, EBR 12,059 11,769 12,442 10,988 ... -32.0 -36.3 4,522 4,784 4,700 4,353 ... -9.4 -5.4 Contracting 19,196 21,367 16,837 22,902 ... -25.1 -18.9 Hotel/Motel 3,233 3,072 2,785 3,380 ... 1.9 0.0 18 43 27 28 33 32.0 -20.5 33 32.0 -20.5 Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 22 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller 18 College of Management, The of Arizona 43 27 University28 Single Family Units January 2010—Winter Issue Coconino County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 74,400 74,700 75,300 74,900 73,800 -1.1 1.8 68,800 68,500 69,400 69,100 67,800 -4.0 -0.5 5,600 6,200 5,900 5,800 6,000 50.0 48.7 7.5 8.3 7.8 7.7 8.1 51.6 46.2 -5.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 60,500 59,800 60,700 61,000 60,500 -6.6 Total Private 41,000 40,800 40,700 40,300 40,400 -6.3 -7.6 Goods‐Producing 5,900 5,900 5,800 5,800 5,700 -13.6 -12.2 Mining and Construction 2,300 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,200 -24.1 -24.5 Manufacturing 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,500 -5.4 -1.8 Service‐Providing 54,600 53,900 54,900 55,200 54,800 -5.8 -4.3 8,900 8,800 8,800 8,700 8,700 -9.4 -9.1 400 400 400 400 400 0.0 0.0 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 -5.9 -7.5 Professional and Business Services 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,900 3,000 -6.3 -7.2 Educational and Health Services 7,400 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,600 2.7 0.6 11,700 11,700 11,600 11,500 11,500 -5.0 -10.1 2,100 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 -9.5 -2.4 19,500 19,000 20,000 20,700 20,100 -7.4 0.4 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,400 3,200 10.3 8.6 16,000 15,500 16,500 17,300 16,900 -10.1 -1.0 145,881 147,595 146,206 139,268 ... -4.8 -11.2 Retail 91,149 90,358 88,389 88,193 ... -1.3 -6.6 Restaurants & Bars 30,820 32,465 33,074 30,412 ... -7.5 -7.5 Gasoline, EBR 23,911 24,771 24,743 20,663 ... -14.1 -31.2 8,967 10,068 9,347 8,187 ... 14.6 0.7 Contracting 25,207 25,504 26,828 26,429 ... -35.7 -25.5 Hotel/Motel 25,551 27,726 26,217 25,451 ... -7.2 -6.4 11 313 8 13 16 6.7 69.8 11 7 8 13 16 6.7 -44.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 23 Arizona’s Economy Gila County Jun 09 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 22,700 23,150 23,175 22,900 22,350 1.0 1.3 20,225 20,550 20,700 20,425 19,850 -3.5 -3.3 2,475 2,600 2,475 2,475 2,500 61.3 81.2 10.9 11.2 10.7 10.8 11.2 59.7 79.0 Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 13,375 13,525 13,650 13,625 13,350 -6.2 -7.9 Total Private 8,575 8,725 8,700 8,725 8,650 -8.0 -9.4 Goods‐Producing 2,550 2,600 2,575 2,550 2,550 -8.9 -5.7 Service‐Providing -8.4 10,825 10,925 11,075 11,075 10,800 -5.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,200 2,200 2,175 2,175 2,150 -5.5 -4.6 Other Private Service‐Providing 3,825 3,925 3,950 4,000 3,950 -8.7 -13.9 Government 4,800 4,800 4,950 4,900 4,700 -2.6 -5.1 600 600 600 575 525 10.5 8.2 4,200 4,200 4,350 4,325 4,175 -4.0 -6.5 39,545 33,221 33,129 33,377 ... -8.9 -16.6 27,114 20,439 21,415 22,242 ... -9.0 -12.1 Restaurants & Bars 5,344 5,726 4,728 4,630 ... -7.1 -2.3 Gasoline, EBR 7,087 7,056 6,985 6,504 ... -9.8 -38.6 2,658 2,868 2,639 2,577 ... 20.3 -9.8 Contracting 8,809 4,760 5,961 6,063 ... -37.0 -25.4 Hotel/Motel 938 1,140 968 868 ... -14.2 -2.4 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Graham County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 14,475 14,400 14,300 14,375 14,425 -13.0 -5.9 12,250 12,125 12,125 12,325 12,400 -20.1 -12.7 2,225 2,275 2,175 2,050 2,025 92.9 104.0 15.4 15.8 15.2 14.3 14.0 121.6 119.7 7,800 7,575 7,475 7,800 8,025 -9.3 -10.0 5,200 5,150 4,950 5,000 5,050 -15.1 -13.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private Goods‐Producing 875 850 800 800 800 -42.9 -30.0 Service‐Providing 6,925 6,725 6,675 7,000 7,225 -3.0 -6.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,400 1,425 -10.9 -7.3 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,825 2,850 2,750 2,800 2,825 -4.2 -9.0 Government 2,600 2,425 2,525 2,800 2,975 2.6 -2.3 450 425 425 425 425 0.0 4.6 2,150 2,000 2,100 2,375 2,550 3.0 -3.5 20,755 19,613 19,498 18,423 ... -26.3 -26.1 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 16,093 15,131 14,711 14,033 ... -30.4 -26.5 Restaurants & Bars 1,925 1,842 1,858 1,738 ... -19.8 -11.8 Gasoline, EBR 2,737 2,640 2,929 2,651 ... -0.1 -33.5 1,026 1,073 1,107 1,050 ... 33.3 -4.2 3,931 4,606 3,511 2,859 ... -52.0 -31.9 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting 24 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Greenlee County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 4,375 4,375 4,375 4,400 4,400 -4.3 -0.4 3,475 3,425 3,425 3,475 3,500 -20.5 -12.7 Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) 900 950 950 925 900 350.0 293.0 20.6 21.7 21.7 21.0 20.5 370.5 297.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 2,925 2,925 2,975 3,025 3,025 -46.2 -30.0 Total Private 2,400 2,375 2,375 2,400 2,400 -52.7 -34.2 Goods‐Producing 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,975 1,975 -56.4 -35.6 Service‐Providing 975 975 1,025 1,050 1,050 -4.5 -10.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 150 150 150 150 150 -33.3 -36.7 Other Private Service‐Providing 300 275 275 275 275 -15.4 -16.1 Government 525 550 600 625 625 13.6 6.6 50 50 50 50 25 0.0 6.7 475 500 550 575 600 14.3 6.6 7,647 8,104 8,274 540 ... -94.4 -36.6 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 6,795 7,247 7,306 0 ... -100.0 -36.4 Restaurants & Bars 305 368 376 0 ... -100.0 -22.8 Gasoline, EBR 546 489 591 540 ... -54.4 -45.9 Gallons (000s) ADOT 205 199 223 214 ... -39.2 -20.1 Contracting 650 356 853 0 ... -100.0 -43.8 Hotel/Motel 448 495 412 427 ... -53.4 -31.2 La Paz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 7,675 7,900 7,825 7,800 7,600 1.7 0.2 6,975 7,175 7,150 7,125 6,925 1.1 -1.7 700 725 675 675 675 8.0 26.6 9.1 9.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 6.2 26.2 4,750 4,925 4,875 4,950 4,875 -2.5 -4.8 2,325 2,475 2,425 2,450 2,400 -5.0 -8.8 Goods‐Producing 225 225 225 225 225 0.0 -20.0 Service‐Providing 4,525 4,700 4,650 4,725 4,650 -2.6 -4.0 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,100 1,300 1,225 1,250 1,200 0.0 -2.5 Other Private Service‐Providing 1,000 950 975 975 975 -11.4 -12.6 Government 2,425 2,450 2,450 2,500 2,475 0.0 -0.6 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private Federal Government State and Local Government 325 325 325 325 325 0.0 0.0 2,100 2,125 2,125 2,175 2,150 0.0 -0.7 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail 16,405 17,294 16,305 14,907 ... -3.0 -18.7 Retail 7,700 7,883 7,634 7,410 ... 1.1 -7.7 Restaurants & Bars 2,286 2,385 2,126 1,788 ... 19.5 5.2 Gasoline, EBR 6,419 7,026 6,545 5,709 ... -12.7 -36.9 2,407 2,856 2,473 2,262 ... 16.4 -5.8 2,675 1,909 1,082 327 ... -88.1 -22.8 525 445 468 587 ... 68.1 -3.9 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 25 Arizona’s Economy Mohave County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Oct 09 94,000 93,900 93,900 92,900 92,000 -1.3 0.6 84,800 84,200 84,300 83,400 82,400 -3.9 -2.7 9,200 9,700 9,600 9,500 9,600 28.0 47.9 9.8 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.4 29.7 47.3 46,900 46,400 46,600 46,400 46,200 -7.2 -7.9 Total Private 39,000 38,600 38,200 38,100 38,000 -7.3 -8.9 Goods‐Producing 7,300 7,200 7,000 7,000 6,900 -13.8 -14.7 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,800 3,700 -19.6 -20.5 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 3,300 3,300 3,200 3,200 3,200 -5.9 -6.4 Service‐Providing 39,600 39,200 39,600 39,400 39,300 -6.0 -6.5 10,800 10,700 10,700 10,600 10,600 -6.2 -7.2 800 800 800 800 800 -11.1 -8.3 Financial Activities 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 -4.5 -9.9 Professional and Business Services 3,100 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,000 -11.8 -11.5 Educational and Health Services 7,200 7,100 7,200 7,300 7,300 -1.4 -3.5 Leisure and Hospitality 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,400 -3.6 -7.0 Other Services 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,900 -13.6 -14.1 Government 7,900 7,800 8,400 8,300 8,200 -6.8 -2.5 500 500 500 500 500 0.0 5.0 7,400 7,300 7,900 7,800 7,700 -7.2 -3.0 139,011 140,806 134,824 129,284 ... -5.1 -13.8 Retail 97,722 97,870 92,412 92,372 ... -1.9 -10.0 Restaurants & Bars 16,047 17,299 16,542 14,867 ... 1.5 -7.8 Gasoline, EBR 25,242 25,637 25,870 22,044 ... -19.9 -31.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 9,466 10,420 9,773 8,734 ... 6.9 0.5 Contracting 36,802 34,635 26,888 29,077 ... -18.1 -14.9 Hotel/Motel 3,729 4,182 3,675 3,559 ... -2.2 -10.0 20 46 22 12 14 -69.6 -59.6 20 46 22 12 14 -69.6 -50.1 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 26 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Navajo County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Oct 09 40,725 41,950 41,625 40,550 40,325 1.6 1.8 34,925 35,775 35,700 34,800 34,325 -3.5 -3.4 5,800 6,175 5,925 5,750 6,000 45.5 57.5 14.2 14.7 14.2 14.2 14.9 43.2 54.9 26,775 27,350 27,275 26,850 26,750 -6.2 -8.1 Total Private 16,925 17,100 17,025 16,775 16,600 -7.8 -10.4 Goods‐Producing 2,375 2,325 2,475 2,450 2,450 -16.2 -22.9 1,875 1,825 1,975 1,950 1,950 -12.4 -20.2 Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 500 500 500 500 500 -28.6 -31.6 Service‐Providing 24,400 25,025 24,800 24,400 24,300 -5.1 -6.3 -6.3 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,225 5,225 5,225 5,125 5,050 -6.5 Information 950 950 950 950 950 0.0 0.0 Financial Activities 450 450 475 450 450 -5.3 -13.6 Professional and Business Services 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 -2.1 -5.5 Educational and Health Services 3,200 3,225 3,225 3,200 3,200 -1.5 -5.5 Leisure and Hospitality 2,850 2,950 2,750 2,675 2,625 -15.3 -14.0 Other Services 700 800 750 750 700 0.0 -13.4 9,850 10,250 10,250 10,075 10,150 -3.6 -3.9 Federal Government 1,775 1,775 1,850 1,850 1,825 10.6 3.2 State and Local Government 8,075 8,475 8,400 8,225 8,325 -6.2 -5.3 90,890 85,488 90,489 85,183 ... -13.6 -13.8 69,170 61,934 68,467 64,883 ... -11.7 -10.0 7,953 9,396 7,946 7,908 ... -3.1 -6.8 13,767 14,158 14,076 12,392 ... -27.2 -32.7 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 5,163 5,755 5,318 4,910 ... -2.9 -0.4 Contracting 13,229 12,062 11,426 12,003 ... -32.6 -37.4 Hotel/Motel 3,506 3,197 3,718 3,399 ... -1.0 -17.2 8 10 9 1 12 0.0 -64.2 8 10 9 1 12 0.0 -64.2 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 27 Arizona’s Economy Santa Cruz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Oct 09 18,150 18,875 19,075 18,825 18,800 0.5 2.0 15,575 15,725 15,825 15,600 15,475 -3.9 -2.8 2,575 3,150 3,250 3,225 3,325 27.9 48.8 14.2 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.7 27.2 46.7 12,625 12,650 12,750 12,700 12,775 -6.8 -7.7 9,025 8,900 8,775 8,700 8,775 -10.5 -11.9 Goods‐Producing 900 875 875 875 875 -5.4 -10.8 Service‐Providing Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 11,725 11,775 11,875 11,825 11,900 -6.8 -7.4 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,375 5,275 5,225 5,150 5,250 -8.3 -7.7 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,750 2,750 2,675 2,675 2,650 -15.9 -19.4 Government 3,600 3,750 3,975 4,000 4,000 2.6 4.1 Federal Government 1,575 1,575 1,600 1,600 1,600 6.7 8.3 State and Local Government 2,025 2,175 2,375 2,400 2,400 0.0 1.5 31,501 31,199 31,677 36,466 ... 12.0 -19.3 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 23,434 23,391 23,254 28,950 ... 15.6 -18.2 Restaurants & Bars 3,294 3,029 3,304 3,128 ... 4.8 -13.5 Gasoline, EBR 4,773 4,779 5,119 4,388 ... -3.4 -29.1 Gallons (000s) ADOT 1,790 1,942 1,934 1,738 ... 28.8 4.2 Contracting 4,811 4,944 4,586 4,675 ... -66.5 -28.0 Hotel/Motel 575 794 835 825 ... -10.6 -32.7 3 6 13 4 5 -44.4 -57.4 3 6 13 4 5 -44.4 -56.7 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 28 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona January 2010—Winter Issue Yavapai County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Oct 09 99,200 99,500 100,800 100,200 99,700 0.4 0.6 90,100 89,800 91,400 90,700 90,200 -2.8 -3.1 9,100 9,700 9,400 9,500 9,500 46.2 69.3 9.2 9.7 9.3 9.5 9.5 45.6 68.4 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 56,200 55,500 56,600 56,800 57,100 -5.6 -7.9 Total Private 44,700 44,400 44,400 44,200 44,200 -7.3 -10.4 Goods‐Producing 8,100 8,000 8,000 8,000 7,900 -18.6 -21.3 Mining and Construction 5,400 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,200 -23.5 -25.1 Manufacturing 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 -6.9 -12.6 Service‐Providing 48,100 47,500 48,600 48,800 49,200 -3.1 -5.2 11,500 11,400 11,300 11,300 11,400 -6.6 -7.9 -4.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 600 600 600 500 500 -16.7 Financial Activities 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 -4.2 -4.5 Professional and Business Services 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 -9.4 -25.5 Educational and Health Services 10,400 10,300 10,400 10,400 10,500 -0.9 1.1 Leisure and Hospitality 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,500 7,500 -1.3 -4.5 Other Services 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,200 -14.3 -31.4 Government 11,500 11,100 12,200 12,600 12,900 0.8 2.6 Federal Government 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,500 7.1 18.8 State and Local Government 9,900 9,600 10,600 11,100 11,400 0.0 0.6 148,143 148,097 150,899 140,350 ... -9.5 -15.5 106,387 106,860 107,537 100,355 ... -9.4 -14.1 Restaurants & Bars 21,935 22,119 22,644 21,144 ... -3.0 -6.7 Gasoline, EBR 19,821 19,118 20,718 18,852 ... -16.0 -31.9 7,433 7,771 7,827 7,469 ... 11.9 0.2 Contracting 37,500 28,925 30,297 25,897 ... -40.0 -35.7 Hotel/Motel 7,285 7,311 6,633 7,710 ... -14.6 -18.5 31 36 46 40 42 27.3 -33.1 31 36 38 35 37 19.4 -47.5 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 29 Arizona’s Economy Yuma County Jun 09 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent Oct 09 month 12‐mo. average 88,200 90,300 91,400 89,600 87,100 Employment 67,900 66,800 67,700 67,800 66,600 -2.8 -3.6 Unemployment 20,300 23,500 23,700 21,800 20,500 22.0 28.0 23.0 26.0 25.9 24.3 23.5 19.5 26.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 2.1 1.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 49,400 48,400 48,800 49,100 49,200 -7.0 -7.2 Total Private 34,700 34,200 34,000 33,700 33,800 -9.6 -10.5 Goods‐Producing 5,300 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,000 -13.8 -18.7 Mining and Construction 3,500 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,300 -19.5 -17.3 Manufacturing 1,800 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 0.0 -21.4 Service‐Providing 44,100 43,300 43,700 44,000 44,200 -6.2 -5.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,400 9,300 9,200 9,100 9,200 -14.8 -12.6 Information 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 0.0 4.3 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,500 -6.3 -2.6 Professional and Business Services 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 -10.6 -10.2 Educational and Health Services 6,100 6,000 6,100 6,100 6,200 -1.6 -2.9 Leisure and Hospitality 4,500 4,400 4,400 4,300 4,300 -8.5 -15.2 Other Services 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,600 -5.9 -3.2 14,700 14,200 14,800 15,400 15,400 -0.6 1.4 3,600 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,600 2.9 2.4 11,100 10,500 11,100 11,700 11,800 -1.7 1.2 Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail 118,501 112,480 115,487 117,332 ... -15.4 -13.4 Retail 83,120 79,897 82,705 86,203 ... -14.7 -9.7 Restaurants & Bars 15,691 14,220 13,693 13,487 ... -1.5 -1.3 Gasoline, EBR 19,690 18,363 19,090 17,641 ... -26.5 -36.0 7,384 7,464 7,212 6,989 ... -2.0 -4.7 Contracting 44,591 26,161 27,619 24,772 ... -24.7 -10.3 Hotel/Motel 3,219 2,944 2,865 3,628 ... -15.9 -4.6 62 72 70 107 26 4.0 3.1 62 72 70 47 26 4.0 -1.3 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 30 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721-0108 Phone: 520-621-2155 Fax: 520-621-2150 E-mail: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu Marshall J. Vest Director (520) 621-4075 mvest@eller.arizona.edu Alberta Charney, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 621-2291 acharney@eller.arizona.edu THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/. 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