October 2009—Fall Issue The Recession is Over By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director September 1, 2009 evidence supporting belief that the recession has ended. Consensus forecasts now call for a sluggish recovery due to still tight credit markets and sluggish consumer spending. Budget restraints by state and local governments and an emptying of the non‐ residential construction pipe‐ line also will retard growth in the near term. It will proba‐ bly be 2011 or 2012 before robust growth resumes. Recent Evidence for Arizona Evidence continues to grow that the U.S. economy bot‐ tomed out during the second quarter – likely in June, maybe May. In Arizona, eco‐ nomic measures remain on a downward trend, confirming our expectation that the state will lag behind the rest of the country. In our annual up‐ date of long‐term projections, we’ve lowered our forecasts for 30 years hence, but we still foresee population nearly doubling. Gains in the index of leading economic indicators, better numbers for housing, recov‐ ering economies of major trading partners, increases in industrial production, higher production schedules by auto makers, large declines in in‐ ventories, rising productivity, widening profit margins, and recovery in capital expendi‐ ture plans are all pieces of Aggregate bellwether meas‐ ures show that Arizona’s economy remains in recession but that a bottom is beginning to form. July nonfarm em‐ ployment declined at a sea‐ sonally adjusted annual rate of 7.7%. Compared to year‐ earlier readings, those losses are worse than in any other state. But the declines are not as large as six months ago when employment was plung‐ ing at nearly a 10% annual rate. Sales data also are beginning to stabilize. Retail sales, which was declining at a 20% annual rate last winter, was declining at a much more sub‐ dued 5.3% rate in June. “Cash for Clunkers” deserves partial credit. Better yet, restaurant and bars sales have bottomed out and actually registered a small 1.5% increase in June. Housing markets also are showing signs of improvement. Although foreclosures remain high, inventories of housing for sale are falling and prices are beginning to stabilize. In July, MLS listings in metro Phoenix fell to 36,000 compared to 58,000 a year‐and‐a‐half ago. With the number of sales now running at a 90,000‐plus annual rate, the supply would be ex‐ hausted in only 4.5 months. Although a four‐to‐five month supply is considered “normal,” housing markets are still far from normal. Roughly half of recent sales were foreclosed properties or “short sales,” mortgage financing remains tight ‐‐ especially for jumbo loans, and migration flows re‐ main depressed (Exhibit 1). Inside this issue: THE RECESSION IS OVER 1 Marshall J. Vest CENSUS 2010: HOW HAS THE PROCESS CHANGED 5 Valorie Hanni Rice U.S. RECESSION AFFECTS REMITTANCES TO MEXICO 6 Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman, Vera Pavlakovich‐Kochi, Ph.D., and Nguyen Ho ECONOMIC FORECAST DATA 9 AZ ECONOMIC INDICATORS 11 Exhibit 1: Housing Markets Are On the Mend Housing For Sale Inventory, MLS Metro Phoenix seasonally adjusted, smoothed active listings months supply 16 60000 14 50000 12 40000 10 activelistings listings active monthssupply supply months 30000 8 6 20000 4 10000 0 2 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 0 Arizona’s Economy Although it’s too soon to expect much of a rebound in homebuilding, we could see permit activity pick up from very depressed levels in com‐ ing months. “Gains in the index of leading economic indicators, better numbers for housing, recovering economies of major trading partners, increases in industrial production... are all pieces of evidence supporting belief that the recession has ended.” Exhibit 2: Current Recession Exceeds Prior Experiences Losses in Prior Recessions Arizona Updating a graphic that we prepared six months ago (Exhibit 2), we find that resi‐ dential building activity (as measured by building permits) has fallen by 89% from its peak level. That compares to de‐ clines of 74% and 71%, respec‐ tively, during two earlier se‐ vere recessions. Nonfarm em‐ ployment is down 9.1% so far, compared to a 4.5% peak‐to‐ trough decline in the mid 1970s, and 2.2% in the early 1980s. Inflation‐adjusted retail sales fell 10.7% in the 1970s recession and 33.1% in the early‐1980s. In the current recession, sales have fallen 27.1% so far. % 0 1974‐75 ‐10 ‐20 ‐10.7 1981‐82 2007‐? ‐2.2 ‐4.7 ‐9.1 ‐30 ‐40 ‐27.1 ‐33.1 ‐50 ‐60 ‐70 ‐80 ‐74.3 ‐70.8 ‐90 ‐88.8 ‐100 home building (units) sales (real) jobs We now expect losses in nonfarm employment to continue to moderate and hiring to stabilize by the middle of next year. However, it likely will be well into 2013 before employment returns to its peak 2007 level. Real retail sales will bottom out earlier, likely this summer, but it too will be 2013 before the prior peak is attained. For homebuilding, we could see an uptick in the next few months because the inventory of new homes is very low. But the numbers will remain at very depressed levels until 2011. Long–Term Outlook “Aggregate bellwether measures show that Arizona’s economy remains in recession but that a bottom is We’ve lowered our long‐term projections, but Arizona’s growth is expected to continue at a rapid pace. In our annual update of our 30‐year projections, we show Arizona’s population reaching 12.5 million in the year 2039. That’s nearly a million‐and‐a‐half lower than last year’s projections. Even so, nearly six million more people will call Arizona home in 2039 than live here today. By nearly doubling, Arizona may well become the seventh largest state in the U.S., trailing only California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Projections for each 10‐year interval for selected aggregate measures are presented in Exhibit 3. Exhibit 3: Arizona to Add Six Million by 2039 Projections to 2039, Arizona 2000 2010 2020 2030 2039 Population (000s) 5,166 6,660 8,280 10,410 12,530 Nonfarm Jobs (000s) 2,243 2,390 3,310 4,200 5,200 133 210 380 670 1,080 55 75 136 215 317 beginning to form.” Personal Income ($bil) Retail Sales ($bil) 2 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue “Per capita personal Highlights of the 30‐Year Forecast income relative to  Nearly 3.0 million new jobs will be created in Arizona over the next three decades, boosting the total to 5.2 million.  Per capita personal income relative to the nation will continues its downward slide from 83% today to nearer 70% thirty years from now. This ratio peaked at 96% in 1981. Per capita in‐ come is an aggregate measure comprised of demographics (age structure), wage levels, indus‐ try mix, and labor force participation rates. The downward trend keeps Arizona near the bot‐ tom of all states on this measure of economic wellbeing. Today (2008 data) Mississippi is at 74% followed by Utah (76%), West Virginia (78%), Arkansas (79%), Kentucky and South Caro‐ lina (both 80%), New Mexico and Idaho (both 81%), and Arizona (83%).    Arizona’s employment to population ratio plunged during the current recession and will re‐ main well below its peak established in 2000 (43.4%) and after dipping to near 36% in 2010, finishes in 2039 at 41.0%. Arizona’s ratio consistently runs about 3‐4 points lower than na‐ tionwide (Exhibit 4). As the population con‐ Exhibit 4: tinues to age, an in‐ Damage Will Require Time to Repair creasing share of per‐ sonal income will come Employment to Population Ratio from transfer payments, Arizona and U.S. of which social security is the largest component. The share will rise from 19.5% today to 27% by US 2039. Per capita trans‐ fers in Arizona however remain steady at 91.5% of the corresponding AZ nationwide measure, so Arizona is mirroring na‐ tional trends. Retail sales relative to income will continue to fall, dropping to 20% from nearly 40% in the mid‐1960s. An aging population that spends more on services (especially health care) and a smaller portion on goods accounts for the drop. the nation will continues its downward slide from 83% today to nearer 70% thirty years from now. This ratio peaked at 96% in 1981...The downward trend keeps Arizona near the bottom of all states on this measure of economic wellbeing.” 0.50 “Migration flows will continue to account 0.45 for the lion’s share of 0.40 On average, natural population growth. increase (births 0.35 minus deaths) accounts for one third 0.30 while net migration provides the remainder.” 0.25 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0.20  Migration flows will continue to account for the lion’s share of population growth. On aver‐ age, natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for one third while net migration pro‐ vides the remainder. The latter varies significantly, of course, over the business cycle.  The annual number of net migrants continues its upward trend to reach nearly 180,000 per year in 2039, roughly the same as in 2005. As a percent of the standing population, net migra‐ tion falls from 2.8% in 2005 to 1.4% in 2039 (Exhibit 5). www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 3 Arizona’s Economy “Arizona has been Highlights of the 30‐Year Forecast, Cont. the second‐fastest  Manufacturing, government, utilities, retail trade and mining will represent smaller shares of total jobs 30 years from now. Manufacturing’s share will decline from 6.2% to 3.6%, govern‐ ment from 17.5% to 13.5%, utilities from 0.5% to 0.3%, and retail trade from 12.2% to 11.4%. Mining jobs will all but disappear.  Sectors that will gain the largest shares are professional and business services (from 14.1% to 17.4%), health care & social assistance (from 11.5% to 13.3%), financial services (from 6.9% to 8.4%), and Exhibit 5: leisure & hospitality Migration Rebounds to Trend‐Line (from 10.8% to 11.3%).  In our “high” scenario, Arizona’s population reaches 14.2 million in 2039. In the “low” sce‐ nario, it is 11.8 million, compared to 12.5 mil‐ lion in the “most likely” scenario. Pennsylvania, the sixth largest state, today has 12.5 million. growing state over the past several decades, and is expected to continue riding the crest for at least the next few decades. Over the next 30 years, Arizona will add more than six million residents, nearly doubling in size”  “Will Arizona be a leader in the industries of the future, or become an be marketed as the low cost leader? Will it become an exclusive place to live or be the Ellis Island of the Southwest? Only time will tell...” 4 % 5 4 150 3 100 2 50 1 0 as % of population number (left) -50 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 The range for 2039 metro Phoenix population is 8.4 to 9.5 million. Metro Tucson’s range is 1.6 to 2.0 million people. The “Sun Corridor” megapolitan population (both metros ‐‐ three counties com‐ bined) ranges from 10.0 to 11.5 million.  By 2039, 72% of Arizona’s population will reside in the Phoenix metro area (Maricopa and Pinal counties). Metro Tucson (Pima County) will account for 13.9%. Today, the shares are 65.9% and 15.5%, respectively. for corporate Arizona continue to thousands 200  economic backwater America? Will Today, Arizona’s 6.6 million population ranks 13th, just ahead of Washington and Massa‐ chusetts. In thirty years, Arizona will over‐ take Virginia, New Jer‐ sey, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio to become the seventh largest state. Annual Net Migration Arizona 0 -1 Arizona has been the second‐fastest growing state over the past several decades, and is expected to continue riding the crest for at least the next few decades. Over the next 30 years, Arizona will add more than six million residents, nearly doubling in size. We can only guess what Arizona will be like, but it’s clear that a great deal of change lies ahead. Much remains to be determined. Will Arizona be a leader in the indus‐ tries of the future, or become an economic backwater for corpo‐ rate America? Will Arizona continue to be marketed as the low cost leader? Will it become an exclusive place to live or be the Ellis Island of the Southwest? Only time will tell... Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Census 2010: How Has the Process Changed? By Valorie Hanni Rice Research Librarian Next March we will all see a familiar sight in our mailboxes – a Census questionnaire. The Census is a count of every‐ one living in the United States and is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. A census has been done every ten years since 1790 making the 2010 Census the 23rd time a com‐ plete count of all the inhabi‐ tants of the United States and its territories has been under‐ taken. Over the years, the number and type of questions asked have varied, as well as how it is administered. The 2010 Census questionnaire will be one of the shortest ever, consisting of only ten questions. Census data are used to reap‐ portion Congressional seats to states, distribute more than $400 billion in federal funds to local, state and tribal govern‐ ments each year and make decisions about what commu‐ nity services to provide. In 2000 and other recent cen‐ suses, most households re‐ ceived a short questionnaire while a sample of households received a longer form that asked for detailed socio‐ demographic information such as income, educational attain‐ ment, and housing character‐ istics in addition to the typical age, gender and race ques‐ tions found on the shorter form. These were called the “long form” and provided cru‐ cial demographic information about communities important to state and local entities for planning resources and for distributing federal funds. The data would become less and less relevant by the later part of each decade. In re‐ sponse to the increasing need for more timely and relevant data, an ongoing survey called the American Community Sur‐ vey (ACS) was put in place to provide important socio‐ demographic data on an an‐ nual basis. The ACS was de‐ signed to essentially replace the Census long form. American Community Survey The American Community Survey (ACS) provides demo‐ graphic, economic and hous‐ ing characteristics of the U.S on an annual basis. The sur‐ vey became nation‐wide in 2005, though it had been con‐ ducted in select test areas of the country since 1996 (Pima County being one of those areas). It is an ongoing survey that is sent to a portion of households every month. Addresses are selected at ran‐ dom and any one address should not receive the survey more than once every five years. Like the decennial cen‐ sus, participation in the Ameri‐ can Community Survey is re‐ quired by law and all re‐ sponses are confidential. Be‐ cause it is an ongoing survey, data users must remember that they are looking at period estimates rather than one point in time as with the de‐ cennial census (so the data may not always be compara‐ ble). ACS should be used to examine population character‐ istics, rather than as an official count of the population – the decennial census and annual population estimates fill that role. Data are collected continu‐ ously throughout the year, but released on an annual basis for one‐year, three‐year or five‐year sampling periods. Results are available for areas with a population of 65,000 or more based on one‐year esti‐ mates. Communities with 20,000 or more have data available based on three‐year estimates beginning with 2005 ‐2007 data (released Decem‐ ber 2008). In Arizona, we cur‐ rently have three‐year esti‐ mates for every county except Greenlee as well as 39 cities and towns. Five‐year esti‐ mates will be available in 2010 for all geographies, including down to Census tract and block group areas. “In response to the increasing need for more timely and relevant data, an ongoing survey called the American Community Survey (ACS) was put in place to provide important socio‐ demographic data on an annual basis. The ACS was designed to essentially replace the Census long form.” ACS 2008 Results The 2008 one‐year estimates were released September 21st. These data show that in Ari‐ zona 83.8% of the population earned a high school diploma (or equivalent), the median household income was $50,958, the average time it took to get to work was 25 minutes (about 75% of us drove alone), 18.6% lived in a different house than what they had the year before and there were 37,991 households in the state (roughly 2% of all households) in which the grandparents were responsi‐ ble for grandchildren under the age of 18 living with them. There were three new topics added to the 2008 survey – healthcare, marital history and VA service‐connected disabil‐ ity rating. ACS data for the “(ACS) Data are collected continuously throughout the year, but released on an annual basis for one‐year, three‐ year or five‐year sampling periods. “ www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 5 Arizona’s Economy Census Cont. “Arizona was one of five states whose median income showed a decline from 2007 to 2008, falling from $51,726, in 2007, to $50,958, in 2008. The other four state shows that 23.4% of indi‐ viduals age 18‐64 do not have health insurance coverage while 2.2% of those over 65 are without, the median dura‐ tion of current marriages in Arizona is 18.1 years (U.S. av‐ erage being 18.4 years) and there are 551,053 civilian vet‐ erans age 18 and over in the state, 15% of which report a service‐connected disability rating. The data also allows us to compare ourselves to other states as well as over time. Arizona ranked high in mobil‐ ity, coming in 6th in the per‐ cent of people who lived in a different house then the year previous (18.6 percent). The top five states with people that tended to move are Alaska (22.3), Nevada (20.3), Idaho (19.2), Oklahoma (19.2) and Colorado (19.1), while those that tended to stay put reside in Rhode Island (12.1), Connecticut (11.9), New York (10.5) and New Jersey (9.9). When looking at the percent of housing units that are mo‐ bile homes, Arizona ranks 12th with 10.7 percent. South Carolina comes in first with 17.9% followed by New Mex‐ ico with 16.4%. As one might suspect, the state with the smallest percentage of mobile homes is Hawaii with virtually none. Arizona was one of five states whose median income showed a decline from 2007 to 2008, falling from $51,726, in 2007, to $50,958, in 2008. The other four states with a decline were California, Flor‐ ida, Indiana and Michigan while Kansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York and Texas saw an increase in their real median household income over that time period. For Further Information on ACS and Census 2010: states with a decline were California, Florida, Indiana and Michigan …” American Community Survey data is available at the Census Bureau’s American FactFinder website (http://factfinder.census.gov), as are the 2000 Census results and many other demographic and economic data. Information on the American Community Survey can be found at: http://www.census.gov/acs/www/ Information on the 2010 Census can be found at: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/ A description of census history is at http://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/hiscendata/html U.S. Recession Affects Remittances to Mexico By Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman, Vera Pavlakovich‐Kochi , Ph.D. and Nguyen Ho Introduction “For the first time in more than a decade, growth in remittances from the United States to Mexico declined between 2007 and 2008.” 6 The U.S. led global recession has drastically affected the amount of money immigrants from Mexico in the United States send back home. For the first time in more than a decade, growth in remittances from the United States to Mexico declined between 2007 and 2008. Remittances to Mexico dropped by 3.6 per‐ cent to about $25.1 billion in 2008 from their peak of $26.1 billion in 2007. This decrease is in contrast to the annual over‐ the‐year increases reported in prior years (Graph 1). Remit‐ tances used to increase at an average rate of 21.3 percent annually between 2000 and 2007. This 2008 decline in remit‐ tances did not diminish the importance of remittances to Mexico. It is the second high‐ est foreign exchange earner in Mexico after oil, followed by maquiladora exports. Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona Remittances to Border States According to data from Banco de México, Sonora received 318 million U.S. dollars, rank‐ ing it 24th out of 32 states listed. Sonora’s remittances declined 5.2 percent from the previous year, far more than Mexico’s 3.6 percent average decline. The six border states in Mexico combined received over 2.2 billion U.S. dollars, about 9.1 percent of all remit‐ tances to Mexico, which is a relatively small share (Table 1). Researchers at the Federal October 2009—Fall Issue Reserve Bank of Dallas suggest that the northern states are probably not the origin of most low‐skilled Mexicans immigrants in the U.S. since they are among the wealthiest states in Mexico. In addition, the chances of informal money transfers not measured by Banco de México are higher among border states as border crossers can easily carry money back home with them. Three of the six Mexican bor‐ der states reported a decline in remittances in 2008 with Sonora accounting for the second largest decline after Nuevo León (‐7.7 percent). The economic importance of remittances by immigrants with family ties in Mexico is substantial. It translates to an annual income of $235.70 per Mexican resident in 2008 dol‐ lars. Compared to 2007, this is a decline in income of about $11 per person in 2008. States in central and western Mexico benefit more from remit‐ tances with Michoacán top‐ ping the list in 2008 with an annual remittance of $2,186.27 per resident. While the economy in Mexico is highly influenced by fluctua‐ tions in the U.S. economy, the Bank of Dallas’ research team attributes the increases pri‐ marily to declines in money‐ rapid increase in remittances to Mexico prior to the 2007 recession cannot be fully ex‐ Graph 1: Remittances to Mexico, 1999 ‐ 2008 ($millions) and year‐over‐year change $30,000 60.0% 53.3% $26,076 $25,567 $25,145 50.0% $25,000 $21,689 35.3% $20,000 $15,041 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 11.2% $8,895 30.0% 21.9% $9,814 $5,910 $6,573 18.3% 20.0% 17.9% 10.0% 10.3% 2.0% 5.1% 0.0% ­3.6% $‐ ‐10.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Remittances to Mexico, 1999 ‐ 2008 2006 2007 2008 % change Source: Banco de Mexico, Las Remesas Familiares en 2008, Enero de 2009 plained by normal economic forces, such as increases in the Mexican immigrant population in the U.S., rise in income lev‐ els, prior recessionary periods, exchange rate variations or strength of cross border social relations. The Federal Reserve transfer costs and the new techniques used by Banco de México to measure the remit‐ tances. Declines in the cost of trans‐ ferring funds over the years are a result of increased com‐ petition by new entrants to “The economic Table 1: Remittances to Mexican Border States, 2008 Border State Baja California Norte Sonora Chihuahua Coahuila Nuevo León Tamaulipas Total Border States Rest of the States National 40.0% $18,331 Millons of U.S. dollars $ 342 $ 318 $ 475 $ 300 $ 331 $ 512 $ 2,278 $ 22,867 $ 25,145 Share (Percent) 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 9.1% 90.9% 100.0% Population 5,595,760 2,473,678 1,661,813 2,648,330 1,267,087 6,960,799 20,607,467 65,467,584 106,682,518 Per Capita (Dollars), 2008 $ 61 $ 129 $ 286 $ 113 $ 261 $ 74 $ 154 $ 349 $ 235.70 importance of remittances by immigrants with family ties in Mexico is substantial. It translates to an annual income of $235.70 per Mexican resident in 2008 dollars.” Source: Banco de Mexico, Las Remesas Familiares en 2008, Enero de 2009 and Consejo Nacional de Poblacion (CONAPO) www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 7 Arizona’s Economy Remittances to Mexico , cont... improved technologies in the formal transfers of funds. The use of Matricula Consular identifica‐ tion (MCAS) cards as an acceptable form of identification in addition to immigrants becoming more aware of transfer options has lead to the increases in formally transmitted remittances and reduced the amount of money sent to Mexico using informal methods. “In 2004, immigrants made up 14 percent of the Arizona workforce, contributing about $6.1 billion in income and $460 million in tax revenues. Immigrants from Mexico account for about 54 percent of immigrants in Arizona according to the 2000 Census.” The decline in remittances to Mexico in 2008, for the first time in over a decade, is mostly attrib‐ uted to the severe economic downturn in the U.S., especially in the construction and service sec‐ tors where most immigrants have sought employment. A study by the University of Arizona Udall Center, identified the top three industries where immigrants worked in 2004 as Agriculture & Forestry (35.2 percent), Construction (18.6 percent), and Leisure & Hospitality (14.9 percent). As employment opportunities have dwindled so has the number of immigrants from Mexico secur‐ ing jobs and crossing to the United States for work. This has also been reflected in the volume of non‐documented immigrants attempting to cross the border. In 2008, the number of apprehen‐ sions made by the Border Patrol declined by more than 64 percent from their mid‐decade peak of 1,189,000 in 2005 to 724,000. Analysts at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics attribute it to both the declining U.S. economic growth and enhanced bor‐ der enforcement efforts. While there is no record showing which states the remittances to Mexico are coming from, stud‐ ies have linked flows of remittances from regions in the U.S. to migration patterns. A Working Paper by World Bank has linked remittances from immigrants in the Yuma and Tucson metro ar‐ eas to Sonora, Mexico. However, the University of Arizona Udall Center’s study reported about 65 percent of immigrants in Arizona live and work in Maricopa County. In 2004, immigrants made up 14 percent of the Arizona workforce, contributing about $6.1 billion in income and $460 mil‐ lion in tax revenues. Immigrants from Mexico account for about 54 percent of immigrants in Ari‐ zona according to the 2000 Census. While immigrants from Sonora may still comprise the bulk of Mexican immigrants in Arizona, the flow of immigrants from other Mexican states has increased in recent years. Without better data it is difficult to gauge what geographical implications Ari‐ zona’s economic slowdown has had on Mexico through declining remittances. It is expected that remittances to Mexico from immigrant workers in the United States will lag behind the recovery of the U.S. economy and until job creation picks‐up, remittances will remain low. As of July 2009, remittances to Mexico in the last seven months are 12.6 percent lower than remittances to Mex‐ ico from January to July of 2008. 1 We use the term “maquiladora” to encompass other programs in Mexico in support of exportation to foreign markets. 2 Cañas, J., R. Coronado and P. M. Orrenius, “Explaining the Increase in Remittance to Mexico”, Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Issue 4, July/August 2007 3 Gans, J. Immigrants in Arizona: Fiscal and Economic Impacts, The University of Arizona, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2008. 4 Rytina, N. and J. Simanski, Apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol: 2005 – 2008, U.S. Department of Homeland Defense, Office of Immigration Statistics, June 2009. 5 The U.S.‐Mexico Remittance Corridor: Lessons on Shifting from Informal Transfer Systems, World Bank Working Paper series. 8 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Forecast Tables Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) % change Wage per Employee % change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* % change Population 000s, mid‐year) % change Residential Permits % change Non Farm Employment (000s) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 209,848.2 210,011.5 217,706.4 231,683.3 248,724.2 266,483.9 284,177.4 ‐1.9 0.1 3.7 6.4 7.4 7.1 6.6 45,517 46,244 47,135 48,211 49,534 50,958 52,445 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9 69,640.9 75,356.9 83,452.7 88,827.6 94,490.2 100,031.8 106,317.8 ‐11.3 8.2 10.7 6.4 6.4 5.9 6.3 6,571.0 6,658.5 6,788.5 6,941.0 7,110.6 7,288.7 7,467.9 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 11,333 19,894 35,679 47,703 58,466 64,071 64,819 ‐54.6 75.5 79.3 33.7 22.6 9.6 1.2 2,446.6 2,385.6 2,418.1 2,511.7 2,636.9 2,756.6 2,861.6 ‐6.5 ‐2.5 1.4 3.9 5.0 4.5 3.8 Goods‐Producing 301.6 266.6 261.1 279.9 312.4 342.3 361.5 “Arizona’s growth is % change ‐19.0 ‐11.6 ‐2.0 7.2 11.6 9.5 5.6 expected to continue 2,144.9 2,119.1 2,157.1 2,232.0 2,324.6 2,414.5 2,500.3 ‐4.4 ‐1.2 1.8 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 480.3 467.8 475.9 495.8 518.2 537.9 556.3 ‐6.8 ‐2.6 1.8 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.4 our 30‐year 344.5 328.0 331.2 346.4 369.3 392.5 413.1 projections, we show % change Service‐Providing % change Trade, Trans., & Utilities % change Prof. & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Government % change Phoenix‐Mesa, MSA Personal Income ($ mill) % change Wage per Employee % change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* % change Population 000s, mid‐year) % change Residential Permits % change Non Farm Employment (000s) ‐10.8 ‐4.8 1.0 4.6 6.6 6.3 5.2 Arizona’s population 263.3 272.0 285.2 296.5 306.0 315.9 reaching 12.5 million ‐2.7 0.1 3.3 4.8 4.0 3.2 3.2 428.1 424.4 421.4 425.5 435.5 444.9 454.3 ‐1.1 ‐0.9 ‐0.7 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 144,621.6 144,646.5 150,683.8 161,859.8 174,343.8 186,558.2 198,514.4 ‐3.0 0.0 4.2 7.4 7.7 7.0 6.4 49,649 51,022 52,502 53,967 55,463 56,914 58,438 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 47,351.0 52,004.3 56,353.9 61,059.2 65,129.2 68,609.7 71,931.1 ‐11.9 9.8 8.4 8.3 6.7 5.3 4.8 4,331.5 4,409.0 4,514.5 4,639.2 4,772.7 4,907.2 5,040.5 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 8,579 11,254 22,029 31,564 37,926 41,305 40,811 ‐53.7 31.2 95.7 43.3 20.2 8.9 ‐1.2 1,733.6 1,677.8 1,699.7 1,780.1 1,877.1 1,967.2 2,043.3 ‐7.2 ‐3.2 1.3 4.7 5.5 4.8 3.9 217.7 184.3 178.4 195.1 220.1 238.7 248.9 % change ‐19.8 ‐15.3 ‐3.2 9.4 12.8 8.5 4.3 1,515.9 1,493.4 1,521.3 1,585.0 1,657.1 1,728.5 1,794.4 ‐5.1 ‐1.5 1.9 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.8 358.6 343.5 349.3 367.5 386.7 402.6 417.2 Service‐Providing % change Trade, Trans., & Utilities % change Prof. & Business Services % change ‐6.6 ‐4.2 1.7 5.2 5.2 4.1 3.6 275.1 266.1 266.1 279.1 295.5 315.6 332.2 ‐11.7 ‐3.2 0.0 4.9 5.9 6.8 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. 181.3 180.9 187.8 197.6 206.2 213.4 LeisureEconomic & Hospitality Source: and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona % change & analysis from EBR's August 2009 ‐2.1 forecast ‐0.2 3.8 update: 5.2 4.3 3.5 * all numbers (next forecast November, 2009). Government % change our annual update of 263.1 Goods‐Producing % change at a rapid pace. In nearly six million more people will call Arizona home in 2039 than live here today.” 5.2 220.8 3.5 238.7 235.7 234.6 238.7 246.3 253.0 259.1 ‐3.1 ‐1.3 ‐0.5 1.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona * all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: November, 2009). in the year 2039. ... 9 Arizona’s Economy “We now expect losses in nonfarm employment to continue to moderate and hiring to stabilize by the middle of next year. However, it likely will be well into 2013 before employment returns to its peak 2007 level. Forecast Tables, cont. Tucson, MSA Personal Income ($ mill) % change Wage per Employee % change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* % change Population 000s, mid‐year) % change Residential Permits % change Non Farm Employment (000s) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 32,901.7 33,295.5 35,046.0 37,858.4 40,495.3 42,710.5 44,700.7 0.1 1.2 5.3 8.0 7.0 5.5 4.7 40,772 41,513 42,336 43,297 44,629 46,002 47,380 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 10,352.9 10,870.1 11,933.6 13,122.9 14,165.3 14,779.0 15,459.8 ‐10.1 5.0 9.8 10.0 7.9 4.3 4.6 1,018.0 1,032.9 1,059.1 1,093.2 1,125.3 1,151.9 1,173.9 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.4 1.9 1,788 4,970 8,892 11,684 11,000 9,052 7,457 ‐44.5 178.0 78.9 31.4 ‐5.9 ‐17.7 ‐17.6 365.9 361.9 373.2 395.5 415.1 427.3 433.5 % change ‐4.1 ‐1.1 3.1 6.0 5.0 2.9 1.4 Goods‐Producing 44.8 42.2 45.3 52.0 57.4 58.6 56.6 % change ‐13.0 ‐5.8 7.2 14.8 10.3 2.2 ‐3.4 321.1 319.6 327.9 343.5 357.8 368.7 376.9 ‐2.7 ‐0.5 2.6 4.8 4.1 3.1 2.2 58.5 57.9 59.4 62.6 65.2 67.0 68.6 Service‐Providing % change Trade, Trans., & Utilities % change Prof. & Business Services % change Leisure & Hospitality % change Government % change ‐6.1 ‐1.1 2.7 5.3 4.1 2.9 2.4 47.1 45.3 45.3 48.1 52.2 55.5 57.4 ‐8.0 ‐3.9 0.1 6.2 8.4 6.3 3.4 38.6 38.7 40.3 42.7 44.5 46.0 47.3 ‐3.3 0.2 4.1 5.9 4.3 3.3 2.9 79.9 78.8 79.9 82.2 84.1 85.2 86.1 ‐0.5 ‐1.3 1.4 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.0 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona * all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: November, 2009). SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS for the Arizona Economic Indicators: 10 ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C‐40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security October 2009—Fall Issue Arizona Economic Indicators Arizona Monthly Data Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 3,125.5 3,142.0 3,140.0 3,158.6 3,165.4 0.4 2.2 2,884.9 2,909.0 2,889.9 2,876.3 2,864.3 ‐3.3 ‐0.8 240.6 233.0 250.1 282.3 301.1 57.7 66.9 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 61.1 58.3 2,481.2 2,481.2 2,454.9 2,405.3 2,379.0 ‐7.7 ‐5.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining 11.9 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.9 ‐21.0 ‐3.2 Construction 143.4 140.4 139.2 141.4 138.7 ‐27.7 ‐23.8 Durable Goods Manufacturing 133.8 133.0 131.3 130.2 129.6 ‐7.2 ‐5.5 Fabricated Metal Products 17.3 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.8 ‐10.2 ‐9.6 Computer and Electronic Prod. 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.1 39.5 ‐6.2 ‐3.2 Aerospace Products and Parts 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 3.6 2.7 Non‐Durable Goods Manufacturing 32.4 33.5 33.6 32.9 31.2 ‐10.9 ‐4.8 Wholesale Trade 101.7 101.1 100.2 99.4 98.7 ‐7.6 ‐5.2 Retail Trade 300.1 297.5 297.2 294.4 292.3 ‐8.6 ‐7.9 Utilities 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 ‐2.3 ‐1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 70.2 70.2 69.8 69.5 68.5 ‐8.1 ‐3.7 Information 40.1 39.9 39.5 39.2 39.4 ‐7.7 ‐4.8 124.0 122.9 121.7 121.9 122.2 ‐1.6 ‐2.2 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 46.6 46.2 45.4 45.6 44.5 ‐12.2 ‐8.1 348.4 354.0 342.5 340.6 341.0 ‐12.0 ‐9.6 43.6 43.4 42.8 43.3 40.9 ‐5.8 ‐2.7 274.6 274.2 273.6 274.3 274.5 ‐0.3 2.4 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 34.0 33.9 33.0 31.9 31.2 ‐11.9 ‐5.8 Accommodation 47.1 47.5 48.1 47.6 48.2 2.6 ‐2.0 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 180.0 182.9 182.5 180.7 176.2 ‐3.5 ‐5.1 Other Services 95.4 94.2 93.8 94.7 93.1 ‐8.4 ‐4.2 Federal Government 55.7 59.0 57.5 57.1 57.6 5.1 5.3 385.7 384.3 380.1 337.3 327.8 ‐2.9 0.0 210.8 210.9 205.4 161.4 151.5 ‐2.1 1.3 39.1 38.3 39.2 39.4 39.3 ‐2.7 ‐3.6 Construction 19.38 19.74 19.71 19.34 19.65 4.4 4.8 Manufacturing 17.29 17.33 16.99 17.10 16.98 3.0 4.8 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 15.41 15.18 15.20 15.44 15.34 2.1 4.4 Retail Trade 13.16 13.05 12.94 13.15 13.23 5.5 4.6 Wholesale Trade 21.11 20.58 21.16 21.31 21.00 4.8 5.4 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC Arizona monthly data continued next page... www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 11 Arizona’s Economy Arizona ‐ Monthly , continued... % change vs. year ago for most recent : month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 6,122,957 5,792,926 6,121,075 5,824,819 ... ‐13.1 ‐10.5 Retail 3,834,036 3,620,761 3,820,932 3,601,211 ... ‐12.2 ‐12.4 Food, EBR Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 1,000,224 1,004,167 976,809 945,963 ... ‐3.1 2.0 Restaurants & Bars 847,163 763,749 805,151 707,799 ... ‐3.3 ‐5.6 Gasoline, EBR 441,533 404,249 518,183 569,845 546,764 ‐37.4 ‐27.2 ‐4.3 Gallons (000s) ADOT 234,186 224,122 225,258 213,705 222,235 0.7 Utilities 606,161 600,262 664,862 894,605 ... 3.5 0.6 Communications 240,585 218,874 225,916 223,296 ... ‐36.4 ‐24.7 Amusements 111,782 81,723 114,699 89,858 ... ‐2.5 ‐8.1 Rentals ‐ Personal Property 288,635 289,343 281,348 265,559 ... ‐13.4 ‐2.7 1,029,137 890,670 1,018,067 1,000,094 ... ‐36.7 ‐27.7 Contracting Mining ‐ Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel 33,701 38,789 80,102 71,631 ... ‐50.5 ‐57.2 240,679 194,922 161,350 131,091 ... ‐22.5 ‐13.5 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 837 1,017 1,160 1,606 2,002 ‐12.5 ‐53.3 Single Family Units 730 1,006 1,152 1,592 1,667 ‐2.5 ‐45.8 2‐4 Unit Structures 10 11 8 4 2 ‐94.3 ‐81.9 5‐plus Unit Structures 97 0 0 10 333 ‐38.7 ‐69.0 2,700 2,902 2,779 3,102 3,174 78.1 92.7 2,252 2,429 2,266 2,512 2,632 86.0 104.8 Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 49 49 51 58 39 0.0 70.8 Chapter 13 399 423 462 532 503 53.4 49.5 08 II 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II 6481.8 6511.9 6533.3 6550.6 6564.7 1.3 1.8 13.4 13.7 12.8 12.4 11.8 ‐12.1 ‐9.9 Births 24.8 24.7 24.0 23.8 23.2 ‐6.4 ‐6.1 Deaths 11.4 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 0.4 ‐1.3 23.3 9.8 6.4 3.0 1.0 ‐95.8 ‐77.7 215,594 214,126 212,895 210,735 211,635 ‐1.8 ‐0.1 155,807 155,163 154,088 151,711 150,054 ‐3.7 ‐2.0 17,726 17,605 17,460 17,327 17,134 ‐3.3 ‐1.6 Arizona ‐ Quarterly % change vs. year ago for most recent : quarter 4‐QTR average Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Net Migrati on Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence 760 757 757 746 739 ‐2.8 0.2 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 39,221 39,239 38,390 36,763 36,268 ‐7.5 ‐3.1 Plus: Transfer Payments 37,532 36,573 37,120 38,841 41,709 11.1 11.0 Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries 116,414 115,984 115,226 113,246 111,746 ‐4.0 ‐2.1 Other Labor Income EBR 24,947 24,851 24,855 24,884 24,854 ‐0.4 0.0 Proprietor's Income 14,291 14,315 13,831 13,404 ... ‐6.2 ‐4.0 94 40 11 ‐97 ... ‐181.5 ‐94.5 14,197 14,275 13,819 13,501 ... ‐4.8 ‐2.6 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 33,261 32,882 32,586 32,170 32,239 ‐3.1 ‐1.8 Average Wage 12 Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 43,429 43,650 44,238 44,556 ... 3.1 2.9 Farm Nonfarm October 2009—Fall Issue Travel and Tourism ‐ Monthly Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona 1,222,323 1,296,731 1,909,930 2,212,519 2,197,468 ‐1.8 ‐2.7 Historical 133,159 144,821 138,935 144,297 120,585 ‐12.3 ‐1.0 Scenic 465,023 489,516 626,140 767,179 874,147 0.6 ‐1.0 Water Based Recreation 624,141 662,394 1,144,855 1,301,043 1,202,736 ‐2.3 ‐4.0 478,144 364,683 212,034 214,269 159,098 5.9 ‐0.3 70,644 34,312 18,313 14,569 20,688 ‐5.2 0.0 344,512 280,921 137,149 151,050 94,473 2.8 ‐2.7 62,988 49,450 56,572 48,650 43,937 20.4 11.5 Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP Passengers 1,600,862 1,511,498 1,555,349 1,367,281 1,515,468 ‐5.0 ‐9.2 Pedestrians 716,249 655,806 651,051 589,153 614,722 ‐36.7 ‐23.5 Vehicles 676,139 753,838 673,245 630,360 639,244 ‐4.1 ‐5.0 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 U.S. ‐ All Urban 212.7 213.2 213.9 215.7 215.4 ‐2.1 0.8 U.S. ‐ Wage Earners 207.2 207.9 208.8 211.0 210.5 ‐2.7 0.4 08 II 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II Western Region (U.S.) 221.2 222.9 217.6 216.8 218.8 ‐1.1 1.3 U.S. ‐ All Urban Consumers 216.8 219.3 213.1 212.0 214.3 ‐1.2 1.4 U.S. ‐ Urban Wage Earners 212.9 215.5 208.1 206.5 209.2 ‐1.7 1.2 Gross Domestic Product 108.1 109.1 109.2 109.7 109.7 1.5 2.0 Personal Consumption Expenditures 109.0 110.3 108.9 108.4 108.8 ‐0.2 1.6 Inflation and Prices ‐ Monthly % change vs. year ago for most recent: month 12‐mo. avg. Consumer Price Index (1982‐1984=100) BLS Inflation and Prices ‐ Quarterly % change vs. year ago for most recent: quarter 4 –QTR avg. Consumer Price index (1982‐84=100) BLS Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA For historical data and additional data series, subscribe to the EBR Database Online. The Economic and Business Research Center has maintained economic indicators on the State of Arizona since 1949. The EBR Database Online builds upon this large and up‐to‐date database to provide economic and socio‐demographic data series in simple, easy to generate reports online. To subscribe visit : http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13 Arizona’s Economy Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Monthly % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 2109.1 2116.2 2111.2 2122.5 2121.6 0.3 1.8 1956.1 1971.1 1956.1 1946.8 1936.0 ‐3.3 ‐1.2 153.0 145.1 155.1 175.7 185.6 65.6 74.0 7.4 7.3 7.9 8.0 8.4 64.7 71.4 1768.3 1767.1 1747.8 1711.8 1691.2 ‐7.8 ‐6.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 ‐15.8 ‐3.7 Construction 107.2 105.0 103.7 105.0 103.3 ‐27.7 ‐24.3 Durable Goods 100.5 100.3 98.8 98.2 97.3 ‐6.9 ‐5.1 Computer and Electronic Prod. 37.3 37.2 37.0 36.6 36.0 ‐6.0 ‐3.1 Aerospace Products and Parts Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 3.3 2.9 Non‐Durable Goods 24.7 25.0 25.0 24.9 23.3 ‐12.4 ‐6.3 Wholesale Trade 85.2 85.0 84.2 83.5 82.7 ‐7.1 ‐4.4 212.8 210.2 210.7 208.5 206.9 ‐8.5 ‐7.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 1.1 0.5 54.6 54.5 54.0 53.7 52.8 ‐9.4 ‐5.0 Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information 30.6 30.4 30.7 30.5 30.7 ‐4.4 ‐1.7 106.9 106.0 105.6 105.6 105.7 ‐1.6 ‐2.4 36.3 35.9 34.6 34.7 33.9 ‐14.0 ‐7.3 276.6 281.8 272.7 271.2 271.1 ‐12.7 ‐10.4 34.6 34.6 34.3 33.9 32.6 ‐2.1 0.0 181.6 181.6 181.1 182.1 181.9 ‐0.9 2.3 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.0 ‐2.7 ‐1.7 Accommodation 29.7 29.8 29.2 28.8 28.7 1.8 ‐0.3 125.9 127.9 127.9 126.6 122.9 ‐3.1 ‐4.7 Other Services 71.3 70.3 70.0 70.1 69.2 ‐7.2 ‐1.7 Federal Government 23.0 24.2 23.0 22.8 23.1 0.9 4.5 227.9 225.8 223.9 193.9 187.8 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 123.1 122.1 119.6 89.8 84.7 5.1 0.2 4,180,130 3,931,442 4,123,179 3,901,678 ... ‐13.4 ‐11.4 2,665,171 2,503,536 2,622,909 2,472,126 ... ‐11.9 ‐13.2 Food, EBR 633,890 636,389 619,051 599,502 ... ‐6.6 0.0 Restaurants & Bars 599,885 534,434 558,125 485,211 ... ‐2.9 ‐6.2 Gasoline, EBR 281,185 257,083 323,094 344,838 324,741 ‐40.2 ‐27.8 Contracting 709,673 611,201 699,127 674,224 ... ‐38.0 ‐31.5 Hotel/Motel 162,507 120,753 89,585 65,177 ... ‐20.4 ‐17.3 Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units 544 700 820 1,209 1,244 ‐30.2 ‐56.3 Single Family Units 456 691 814 1,209 1,234 0.7 ‐46.5 2‐4 Unit Structures 3 9 6 0 0 ‐100.0 ‐83.7 85 0 0 0 10 ‐98.1 ‐72.6 1,214,575 1,367,357 1,517,550 1,469,369 1,594,319 7.1 ‐0.5 7,636 8,564 9,284 8,286 9,095 52.2 57.8 159,059 159,663 163,459 177,332 175,296 ‐29.6 ‐36.8 3,498,397 3,290,532 3,163,737 3,189,822 3,344,775 ‐4.1 ‐8.7 38,688 ‐9.3 ‐12.2 5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers 14 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 40,711 39,093 38,822 37,382 Total Aircraft Movements October 2009—Fall Issue Phoenix‐Mesa MSA ‐ Quarterly % change vs. year ago for most recent quarter 4 –QTR avg. 08 II 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II 4,270.1 4,286.4 4,299.6 4,312.4 4,325.1 1.3 1.8 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 4.1 0.6 Births 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 3.5 1.3 Deaths 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 2.6 2.5 12.0 5.4 2.2 1.6 1.3 ‐89.0 ‐86.0 149,767 149,006 147,622 146,300 145,181 ‐3.1 ‐1.1 116,494 115,511 114,004 112,546 111,259 ‐4.5 ‐2.4 13,095 12,990 12,833 12,682 12,547 ‐4.2 ‐2.2 ‐3.7 Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence ‐195 ‐197 ‐199 ‐200 ‐202 ‐3.5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 25,435 24,898 24,200 23,534 22,912 ‐9.9 ‐6.2 Plus: Transfer Payments 21,129 21,784 22,449 23,104 23,759 12. 4 12.1 35,074 34,763 34,334 33,925 33,568 ‐4. 3 ‐2.8 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 21,675 21,700 21,900 22,850 23,700 9.6 18,875 19,125 19,225 19,425 19,925 5.0 2.2 2,800 2,575 2,675 3,425 3,775 42.5 50.2 12.9 11.9 12.2 15.0 15.9 30.0 41.0 19,500 19,575 19,575 19,525 19,975 1.5 ‐2.3 ‐9.7 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Apache County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average 6.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 6,300 6,275 6,275 6,300 6,375 ‐13.0 Goods‐Producing 900 900 900 925 925 ‐11.9 9.4 Service‐Providing 18,600 18,675 18,675 18,600 19,050 2.3 ‐2.8 1,750 1,725 1,700 1,700 1,775 ‐13.4 ‐10.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service‐Providing 3,650 3,650 3,675 3,675 3,675 ‐13.0 ‐13.2 13,200 13,300 13,300 13,225 13,600 10.1 1.9 Federal Government 3,300 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,500 12.9 0.9 State and Local Government 9,900 9,825 9,825 9,750 10,100 9.2 2.2 12,831 21,719 16,318 15,733 ... ‐18.3 ‐11.3 7,583 16,480 9,341 7,991 ... ‐4.5 ‐11.7 844 843 1,160 1,235 ... ‐26.7 7.6 4,405 4,396 5,817 6,507 6,367 ‐32.2 ‐19.9 Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,336 2,437 2,529 2,440 2,588 9.1 5.9 Contracting 4,480 8,525 11,721 6,105 ... ‐42.5 9.8 Hotel/Motel 852 1,105 1,443 1,895 ... ‐42.3 ‐0.9 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15 Arizona’s Economy Tucson MSA ‐ Monthly Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 484.3 486.6 486.6 486.4 486.1 0.2 4.1 450.3 454.4 452.2 446.6 444.4 ‐3.0 1.6 34.0 32.2 34.4 39.8 41.7 55.0 61.1 7.3 7.1 7.8 7.9 8.1 55.8 54.5 366.9 367.9 364.2 354.6 350.1 ‐7.5 ‐3.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 ‐30.0 ‐11.9 Construction 16.8 16.4 16.3 16.5 16.3 ‐31.5 ‐24.4 Manufacturing 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.9 ‐5.5 ‐3.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.7 3.3 2.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 ‐2.1 ‐3.4 39.9 39.6 39.0 39.1 39.0 ‐10.1 ‐8.7 Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 ‐4.4 ‐5.7 Information 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 ‐16.0 ‐17.5 Financial Activities 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 ‐3.4 ‐2.4 Professional and Business Services 48.6 49.0 47.0 47.2 47.4 ‐8.7 ‐5.5 Educational and Health Services 57.8 57.6 57.7 57.8 57.4 0.7 3.5 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 5.2 15.6 ‐2.5 Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.9 ‐2.8 ‐0.5 Food Svcs and Drinking Places 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.0 25.9 ‐6.2 ‐3.3 Other Services 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 14.7 ‐8.1 ‐5.5 Federal Government 11.6 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.9 8.2 8.7 State and Local Government 70.7 71.3 71.3 62.2 59.1 ‐9.9 1.6 44.8 45.4 44.9 35.2 32.2 ‐13.9 3.2 State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 903,703 857,621 909,201 861,160 ... ‐10.7 ‐9.5 Retail 562,439 534,917 565,335 528,314 ... ‐10.6 ‐11.9 Food, EBR 153,131 153,735 149,546 144,824 ... ‐3.5 2.0 Restaurants & Bars 129,140 114,735 122,851 105,574 ... 1.1 ‐3.4 58,993 54,234 71,469 82,449 79,849 ‐30.5 ‐24.5 Contracting 143,183 113,893 123,942 122,365 ... ‐38.7 ‐18.2 Hotel/Motel 34,820 25,371 21,611 15,009 ... ‐32.9 ‐10.0 157 173 200 244 229 ‐18.8 ‐52.0 138 171 198 230 210 ‐21.1 ‐43.3 19 2 2 14 19 18.8 ‐84.3 187,802 178,510 206,198 237,997 249,548 3.6 ‐19.0 923 931 1,024 1,139 1,184 23.5 ‐0.3 203,469 191,740 201,366 208,952 210,767 ‐16.1 ‐18.8 336,211 322,964 311,977 294,958 302,284 ‐14.3 ‐16.5 16,095 15,469 16,226 14,523 13,958 ‐16.4 ‐20.3 Gasoline, EBR New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 2‐5‐plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements 16 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Tucson MSA ‐ Quarterly % change vs. year ago for most recent quarter 4 –QTR avg. 08 II 08 III 08 IV 09 I 09 II 1010.4 1012.4 1014.1 1015.6 1017.2 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 8.5 0.3 Births 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.2 1.5 Deaths 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 ‐99.3 ‐91.2 32,889 32,968 32,926 32,891 32,898 0.0 1.6 21,165 21,098 20,944 20,797 20,679 ‐2.3 ‐0.5 2,436 2,428 2,411 2,395 2,382 ‐2.2 ‐0.4 182 181 181 180 179 ‐1.7 ‐0.8 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 7,483 7,403 7,266 7,134 7,021 ‐6.2 ‐2.4 Plus: Transfer Payments 6,494 6,713 6,946 7,175 7,400 14.0 12.9 32,550 32,563 32,469 32,385 32,343 ‐0.6 0.7 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 60,725 61,100 62,050 63,125 63,275 2.4 56,700 57,375 58,150 58,525 58,500 0.4 2.2 4,025 3,725 3,900 4,600 4,775 35.5 43.1 6.6 6.1 6.3 7.3 7.5 32.2 37.7 36,900 36,925 37,325 37,000 36,700 ‐3.5 ‐2.5 Total Private 24,325 24,300 24,800 24,750 24,475 ‐5.1 ‐4.9 Goods‐Producing 2,250 2,175 2,375 2,400 2,350 ‐17.5 ‐17.9 1,600 1,550 1,750 1,775 1,725 ‐17.9 ‐19.5 Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Cochise County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average 4.0 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 650 625 625 625 625 ‐16.7 ‐13.6 Service‐Providing 34,650 34,750 34,950 34,600 34,350 ‐2.3 ‐1.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,250 6,175 6,175 6,100 6,025 ‐9.1 ‐7.5 Information 6,250 450 425 450 450 ‐10.0 156.2 Financial Activities 450 675 675 650 650 ‐7.1 ‐40.9 Professional and Business Services 650 5,900 5,925 5,950 5,800 ‐1.3 ‐9.1 Educational and Health Services 5,850 3,900 4,000 4,075 3,975 ‐8.1 9.0 Leisure and Hospitality 3,925 4,175 4,375 4,275 4,375 9.4 ‐1.6 Other Services 4,100 850 850 850 850 ‐8.1 48.3 Government 12,575 12,625 12,525 12,250 12,225 0.0 2.7 Federal Government 5,075 5,100 5,150 5,225 5,300 6.5 5.3 State and Local Government 7,500 7,525 7,375 7,025 6,925 ‐4.5 0.9 85,879 76,819 100,346 86,332 ... ‐14.0 ‐7.2 Retail 64,759 58,661 77,858 64,096 ... ‐7.2 ‐5.5 Restaurants & Bars 12,059 9,870 11,757 10,177 ... ‐6.8 ‐1.8 9,061 8,288 10,731 12,059 11,769 ‐40.2 ‐26.5 4,806 4,595 4,665 4,522 4,784 ‐3.8 ‐3.2 Contracting 14,604 13,958 23,979 19,196 ... ‐30.7 ‐14.4 Hotel/Motel 4,175 3,738 3,473 3,233 ... ‐14.1 0.2 16 23 26 18 43 72.0 16 23 26 18 43 72.0 Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17 ‐36.8 ‐36.8 Arizona’s Economy Coconino County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 73,200 73,700 73,000 74,400 74,600 ‐0.9 2.5 68,400 69,500 68,500 68,800 68,600 ‐3.5 0.3 4,800 4,200 4,500 5,600 6,000 42.9 52.6 6.6 5.7 6.2 7.5 8.0 44.2 49.0 ‐4.5 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 61,800 62,500 61,100 60,500 59,900 ‐7.3 Total Private 41,200 41,300 41,100 41,000 40,800 ‐9.5 ‐7.3 Goods‐Producing 6,000 6,000 5,900 5,900 5,900 ‐13.2 ‐10.7 Mining and Construction 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 ‐25.8 ‐22.4 Manufacturing 3,700 3,700 3,600 3,600 3,600 ‐2.7 ‐0.2 Service‐Providing 55,800 56,500 55,200 54,600 54,000 ‐6.6 ‐3.7 9,100 9,000 9,000 8,900 8,900 ‐11.0 ‐7.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 400 400 400 400 400 0.0 ‐5.9 Financial Activities 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,600 1,600 ‐5.9 ‐8.6 Professional and Business Services 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 ‐9.1 ‐7.1 Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,400 7,400 0.0 0.4 11,500 11,700 11,700 11,700 11,600 ‐13.4 ‐11.1 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,000 ‐4.8 2.1 20,600 21,200 20,000 19,500 19,100 ‐2.1 1.9 2,800 3,400 3,500 3,500 3,600 20.0 6.3 17,800 17,800 16,500 16,000 15,500 ‐6.1 1.2 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail 112,775 114,058 140,049 145,881 ... ‐11.9 ‐7.9 Retail 75,355 73,446 90,270 91,149 ... ‐6.8 ‐5.1 Restaurants & Bars 23,871 27,261 30,621 30,820 ... ‐13.3 ‐5.4 Gasoline, EBR 13,549 13,351 19,159 23,911 24,771 ‐27.7 ‐26.3 7,186 7,402 8,328 8,967 10,068 16.4 ‐4.5 Contracting 24,382 21,435 22,666 25,207 ... ‐37.0 ‐15.7 Hotel/Motel 15,280 21,978 23,711 25,551 ... ‐20.4 ‐1.3 11 9 9 11 313 1059.3 43.1 11 9 9 11 7 ‐72.0 ‐50.6 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units “Aggregate bellwether measures show that Arizona’s economy remains in recession but that a bottom is beginning to form. July nonfarm employment declined at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.7%. Compared to year‐earlier readings, those losses are worse than in any other state. But the declines are not as large as six months ago when employment was plunging at nearly a 10% annual rate.” 18 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Gila County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 21,700 22,100 22,300 22,700 23,175 0.9 2.0 19,500 20,025 20,100 20,225 20,550 ‐4.6 ‐2.3 2,200 2,075 2,200 2,475 2,625 84.2 85.9 10.1 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.3 82.6 82.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 13,250 13,525 13,500 13,375 13,500 ‐8.9 ‐7.0 Total Private 8,750 8,750 8,650 8,575 8,675 ‐11.9 ‐7.6 Goods‐Producing 2,575 2,575 2,525 2,550 2,600 ‐9.6 ‐1.7 Service‐Providing ‐8.2 10,675 10,950 10,975 10,825 10,900 ‐8.8 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,150 2,175 2,175 2,200 2,125 ‐7.6 ‐4.5 Other Private Service‐Providing 4,025 4,000 3,950 3,825 3,950 ‐15.5 ‐12.5 Government 4,500 4,775 4,850 4,800 4,825 ‐3.0 ‐5.9 450 550 575 600 600 9.1 6.0 4,050 4,225 4,275 4,200 4,225 ‐4.5 ‐7.2 29,252 28,994 35,153 39,545 ... ‐8.8 ‐11.5 20,468 20,786 24,115 27,114 ... 4.6 ‐9.4 Restaurants & Bars 4,547 4,441 5,435 5,344 ... 0.3 ‐1.2 Gasoline, EBR 4,237 3,767 5,603 7,087 7,056 ‐42.2 ‐33.5 2,247 2,088 2,436 2,658 2,868 ‐7.0 ‐13.0 Contracting 5,880 6,697 6,872 8,809 ... ‐7.1 ‐13.8 Hotel/Motel 747 712 1,013 938 ... ‐18.1 ‐5.8 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 15,300 14,700 14,400 14,475 14,900 ‐9.1 0.5 13,425 12,825 12,325 12,250 12,625 ‐17.3 ‐5.1 1,875 1,875 2,075 2,225 2,275 102.2 102.8 12.3 12.8 14.4 15.4 15.3 122.6 106.1 8,125 8,475 8,025 7,800 8,025 ‐8.0 ‐6.2 Total Private 5,350 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,150 ‐16.6 ‐8.9 Goods‐Producing 1,025 1,025 875 875 875 ‐42.6 ‐14.1 Service‐Providing 7,100 7,450 7,150 6,925 7,150 ‐0.7 ‐4.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,475 1,525 1,525 1,500 1,450 ‐10.8 ‐4.9 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,850 2,850 2,900 2,825 2,825 ‐6.6 ‐8.7 Government 2,775 3,075 2,725 2,600 2,875 12.7 ‐0.3 400 425 425 450 425 0.0 6.3 2,375 2,650 2,300 2,150 2,450 15.3 ‐1.4 19,653 19,311 20,748 20,755 ... ‐25.7 ‐20.0 ‐20.2 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Graham County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 16,071 15,910 16,784 16,093 ... ‐28.5 Restaurants & Bars 2,078 1,933 2,044 1,925 ... ‐4.8 ‐5.4 Gasoline, EBR 1,504 1,468 1,920 2,737 2,640 ‐24.6 ‐33.0 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting 798 814 834 1,026 1,073 21.3 ‐13.4 2,728 2,633 3,769 3,931 ... ‐58.3 ‐14.0 www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19 Arizona’s Economy Greenlee County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 4,350 4,275 4,375 4,375 4,525 ‐0.5 3.5 3,800 3,625 3,475 3,475 3,575 ‐17.3 ‐5.0 550 650 900 900 950 322.2 226.0 12.6 15.2 20.6 20.6 21.0 324.6 219.2 4,125 3,000 2,925 2,925 2,950 ‐44.6 ‐15.2 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 3,575 2,425 2,375 2,400 2,400 ‐50.0 ‐17.5 Goods‐Producing 3,125 1,975 1,925 1,950 1,975 ‐53.3 ‐16.8 Service‐Providing 1,000 1,025 1,000 975 975 ‐11.4 ‐9.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 175 150 150 150 150 ‐33.3 ‐33.3 Other Private Service‐Providing 275 300 300 300 275 ‐21.4 ‐12.4 Government 550 575 550 525 550 4.8 3.9 Federal Government 25 25 25 50 50 0.0 ‐11.8 525 550 525 475 500 5.3 5.0 7,386 6,533 7,052 7,647 ... ‐70.9 ‐8.0 6,642 5,863 6,099 6,795 ... ‐72.4 ‐7.7 Restaurants & Bars 364 323 444 305 ... ‐34.8 ‐2.4 Gasoline, EBR 380 347 509 546 489 ‐60.1 ‐27.0 202 192 221 205 199 ‐35.7 ‐7.2 Contracting 630 1,229 1,118 650 ... ‐80.8 ‐27.9 Hotel/Motel (includes Graham county) 546 524 492 448 ... ‐52.6 ‐12.2 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 7,425 7,550 7,525 7,675 7,850 6,775 6,975 6,950 6,975 7,100 0.0 ‐3.7 650 575 575 700 750 15.4 43.7 8.8 7.6 7.6 9.1 9.6 13.9 45.1 4,900 4,900 4,875 4,750 4,875 ‐2.0 ‐6.3 2,475 2,450 2,400 2,325 2,425 ‐8.5 ‐10.1 State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT La Paz County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 1.3 12‐mo. average ‐1.0 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private Goods‐Producing 225 225 225 225 225 ‐18.2 ‐25.9 Service‐Providing 4,675 4,675 4,650 4,525 4,650 ‐1.1 ‐5.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,175 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,225 2.1 ‐4.5 Other Private Service‐Providing 1,075 1,025 1,025 1,000 975 ‐17.0 ‐11.8 Government 2,425 2,450 2,475 2,425 2,450 5.4 ‐2.2 325 325 325 325 325 0.0 0.0 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,100 2,125 6.3 ‐2.6 19,825 15,138 15,779 16,405 ... ‐24.2 ‐12.7 11,197 8,415 7,790 7,700 ... ‐13.6 ‐7.4 Restaurants & Bars 3,006 2,105 1,996 2,286 ... 20.6 0.0 Gasoline, EBR 5,622 4,618 5,994 6,419 7,026 ‐44.2 ‐31.2 2,982 2,560 2,605 2,407 2,856 ‐10.2 ‐7.4 Contracting 3,742 1,873 3,299 2,675 ... 74.9 ‐10.4 Hotel/Motel 514 379 396 525 ... 3.5 ‐7.6 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT 20 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Mohave County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 93,600 93,500 93,400 94,000 94,500 ‐0.7 1.4 84,700 85,300 85,000 84,800 84,700 ‐4.2 ‐2.0 8,900 8,200 8,400 9,200 9,800 44.1 58.1 9.5 8.8 9.0 9.8 10.4 45.2 56.1 ‐7.3 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 48,500 48,600 48,200 46,900 46,700 ‐9.3 Total Private 39,800 39,700 39,400 39,000 38,800 ‐9.3 ‐8.8 Goods‐Producing 7,400 7,400 7,300 7,300 7,200 ‐17.2 ‐14.2 Mining and Construction 4,100 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,900 ‐23.5 ‐20.1 Manufacturing 3,300 3,400 3,300 3,300 3,300 ‐8.3 ‐5.4 Service‐Providing 41,100 41,200 40,900 39,600 39,500 ‐7.7 ‐5.9 11,000 11,000 10,900 10,800 10,900 ‐6.8 ‐5.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 900 900 900 800 800 ‐11.1 ‐7.3 Financial Activities 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 ‐8.7 ‐12.3 Professional and Business Services 3,200 3,200 3,100 3,100 3,100 ‐11.4 ‐10.3 Educational and Health Services 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,200 7,100 ‐4.1 ‐3.7 Leisure and Hospitality 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,700 5,600 ‐6.7 ‐9.5 Other Services 2,100 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 ‐13.0 ‐12.8 Government 8,700 8,900 8,800 7,900 7,900 ‐9.2 0.3 500 700 600 500 500 0.0 5.0 8,200 8,200 8,200 7,400 7,400 ‐9.8 0.0 141,599 133,649 142,438 139,011 ... ‐14.6 ‐12.6 105,677 98,625 102,677 97,722 ... ‐11.0 ‐11.8 Restaurants & Bars 18,507 18,377 17,770 16,047 ... ‐4.6 ‐7.4 Gasoline, EBR 17,415 16,648 21,991 25,242 25,637 ‐32.7 ‐25.6 9,237 9,230 9,560 9,466 10,420 8.2 ‐2.2 Contracting 33,391 31,529 32,015 36,802 ... ‐2.1 ‐17.2 Hotel/Motel 3,701 3,629 4,016 3,729 ... ‐6.8 ‐11.7 22 17 24 20 46 58.6 ‐55.2 22 17 24 20 46 58.6 ‐52.0 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 21 Arizona’s Economy Navajo County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 39,050 38,825 39,675 40,725 42,050 3.3 2.1 34,025 34,125 34,775 34,925 35,850 ‐2.2 ‐3.1 5,025 4,700 4,900 5,800 6,200 53.1 65.9 12.9 12.1 12.4 14.2 14.7 48.2 62.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 26,925 26,675 27,100 26,775 27,375 ‐6.3 ‐7.8 Total Private 16,675 16,550 16,925 16,925 17,100 ‐10.4 ‐10.2 Goods‐Producing 2,400 2,325 2,300 2,375 2,325 ‐26.8 ‐23.4 Mining and Construction 1,875 1,800 1,775 1,875 1,825 ‐24.7 ‐22.0 Manufacturing 525 525 525 500 500 ‐33.3 ‐27.9 Service‐Providing 24,525 24,350 24,800 24,400 25,050 ‐3.8 ‐5.8 5,150 5,125 5,200 5,225 5,225 ‐7.9 ‐6.9 950 950 950 950 950 ‐2.6 4.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities 475 450 450 450 475 0.0 ‐17.0 Professional and Business Services 1,225 1,200 1,175 1,175 1,175 ‐7.8 ‐5.9 Educational and Health Services 3,200 3,175 3,175 3,200 3,225 0.0 ‐6.7 Leisure and Hospitality 2,600 2,700 2,975 2,850 2,925 ‐14.6 ‐10.6 675 625 700 700 800 ‐5.9 ‐11.9 10,250 10,125 10,175 9,850 10,275 1.2 ‐3.3 Federal Government 1,625 1,800 1,775 1,775 1,800 10.8 1.2 State and Local Government 8,625 8,325 8,400 8,075 8,475 ‐0.6 ‐4.1 71,854 77,479 89,705 90,890 ... ‐18.4 ‐7.6 55,582 62,009 68,328 69,170 ... ‐14.4 ‐6.0 Restaurants & Bars 6,677 6,511 8,824 7,953 ... ‐17.4 ‐6.5 Gasoline, EBR 9,595 8,960 12,554 13,767 14,158 ‐37.7 ‐22.9 5,089 4,968 5,457 5,163 5,755 0.2 0.7 Contracting 9,245 13,410 14,568 13,229 ... ‐6.7 ‐36.1 Hotel/Motel 2,407 2,498 3,133 3,506 ... ‐47.8 ‐8.1 6 8 10 8 10 ‐58.3 ‐60.4 6 8 10 8 10 ‐58.3 ‐60.4 Other Services Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 22 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Santa Cruz County % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 17,950 17,850 17,950 18,150 18,800 1.9 4.4 15,900 15,925 15,850 15,575 15,625 ‐4.3 ‐0.7 2,050 1,925 2,100 2,575 3,175 49.4 61.4 11.4 10.8 11.7 14.2 16.9 46.6 54.5 13,375 13,225 13,075 12,625 12,575 ‐8.4 ‐5.6 9,375 9,225 9,100 9,025 8,875 ‐12.8 ‐9.2 Goods‐Producing 875 900 900 900 900 ‐10.0 ‐7.5 Service‐Providing Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 12,500 12,325 12,175 11,725 11,675 ‐8.3 ‐5.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,600 5,475 5,425 5,375 5,225 ‐9.5 ‐4.1 Other Private Service‐Providing 2,900 2,850 2,775 2,750 2,750 ‐19.1 ‐17.9 Government 4,000 4,000 3,975 3,600 3,700 4.2 4.6 Federal Government 1,575 1,575 1,575 1,575 1,575 5.0 9.3 State and Local Government 2,425 2,425 2,400 2,025 2,125 3.7 1.7 31,411 31,925 35,427 31,501 ... ‐23.6 ‐18.8 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail 23,281 24,597 26,901 23,434 ... ‐26.1 ‐17.6 Restaurants & Bars 3,962 3,509 3,762 3,294 ... ‐11.8 ‐13.3 Gasoline, EBR 4,167 3,819 4,764 4,773 4,779 ‐14.4 ‐30.3 ‐6.7 Gallons (000s) ADOT 2,210 2,117 2,071 1,790 1,942 37.7 Contracting 6,395 5,047 6,161 4,811 ... ‐62.3 ‐2.9 Hotel/Motel 1,087 1,112 607 575 ... ‐36.1 ‐29.4 10 10 4 3 6 ‐64.7 ‐58.8 10 10 4 3 6 ‐64.7 ‐57.9 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units Economic Outlook Luncheon 2010/2011 Join us for lunch as University of Arizona econo‐ mists Marshall J. Vest and Gerald J. Swanson and Eller College dean Paul R. Portney review the na‐ tional and regional economic outlook. Friday, December 11, 2009. Noon until 2 PM. Registration at 11:30. Lunch begins at Noon. The Westin La Paloma 3800 East Sunrise Drive Tucson, Arizona www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 23 Arizona’s Economy Yavapai County Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 98,400 98,600 98,200 99,200 99,700 89,700 90,500 90,000 90,100 89,900 ‐4.9 ‐3.1 8,700 8,100 8,200 9,100 9,800 66.1 79.1 8.8 8.2 8.4 9.2 9.8 67.3 78.2 ‐0.7 0.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 57,600 57,600 56,900 56,200 55,600 ‐8.9 ‐8.0 Total Private 45,000 44,900 44,700 44,700 44,500 ‐10.5 ‐10.9 Goods‐Producing 8,100 8,100 8,000 8,100 8,100 ‐21.4 ‐20.3 Mining and Construction 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,400 5,400 ‐25.0 ‐23.4 Manufacturing 2,800 2,800 2,700 2,700 2,700 ‐12.9 ‐13.2 Service‐Providing 49,500 49,500 48,900 48,100 47,500 ‐6.3 ‐5.4 11,700 11,600 11,600 11,500 11,500 ‐8.0 ‐7.4 600 600 600 600 600 0.0 ‐2.7 Financial Activities 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 ‐4.2 ‐5.1 Professional and Business Services 3,000 3,000 2,900 2,900 2,900 ‐19.4 ‐29.5 10,600 10,500 10,500 10,400 10,300 0.0 2.2 Leisure and Hospitality 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,600 7,500 ‐6.3 ‐6.4 Other Services 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 ‐35.0 ‐34.8 12,600 12,700 12,200 11,500 11,100 ‐1.8 4.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Educational and Health Services Government Federal Government 1,500 1,700 1,600 1,600 1,500 7.1 20.9 11,100 11,000 10,600 9,900 9,600 ‐3.0 2.8 139,403 138,037 153,046 148,143 ... ‐20.0 ‐13.9 104,297 103,726 112,066 106,387 ... ‐19.3 ‐14.1 Restaurants & Bars 21,906 22,076 24,310 21,935 ... ‐6.7 ‐6.6 Gasoline, EBR 13,200 12,235 16,671 19,821 19,118 ‐32.4 ‐26.0 7,001 6,783 7,247 7,433 7,771 8.7 ‐2.5 Contracting 34,067 25,739 33,247 37,500 ... ‐44.1 ‐27.7 Hotel/Motel 8,405 9,494 8,472 7,285 ... ‐8.2 ‐13.2 26 24 20 31 36 ‐14.3 ‐51.2 26 24 20 31 36 ‐14.3 ‐61.0 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units 24 Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona October 2009—Fall Issue Yuma County % change vs. year ago for most recent month 12‐mo. average Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 78,600 85,200 87,500 88,200 90,800 Employment 66,700 68,200 67,300 67,900 67,000 ‐2.5 ‐2.7 Unemployment 11,900 17,000 20,200 20,300 23,800 23.3 35.8 15.1 20.0 23.1 23.0 26.2 19.5 31.6 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Unemployment Rate (%) 3.2 3.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 51,000 50,600 50,000 49,400 48,400 ‐5.8 ‐5.6 Total Private 35,500 35,100 34,700 34,700 34,100 ‐7.8 ‐8.9 Goods‐Producing 5,400 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,100 ‐17.7 ‐18.5 Mining and Construction 3,500 3,400 3,400 3,500 3,400 ‐19.0 ‐15.0 Manufacturing 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,700 ‐15.0 ‐24.9 Service‐Providing 45,600 45,300 44,700 44,100 43,300 ‐4.2 ‐3.7 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,700 9,600 9,500 9,400 9,300 ‐7.0 ‐9.2 Information 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 5.9 6.9 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0.0 ‐1.5 Professional and Business Services 4,400 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,200 ‐12.5 ‐6.3 Educational and Health Services 6,200 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,000 ‐1.6 ‐2.8 Leisure and Hospitality 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,500 4,400 ‐10.2 ‐15.0 Other Services Government Federal Government 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,800 1,700 0.0 ‐1.9 15,500 15,500 15,300 14,700 14,300 ‐0.7 3.3 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,700 5.7 2.2 11,900 11,900 11,700 11,100 10,600 ‐2.8 3.6 154,052 126,156 124,466 118,501 ... ‐15.4 ‐8.7 115,515 93,790 90,458 83,120 ... ‐12.0 ‐6.2 Restaurants & Bars 20,317 17,330 16,053 15,691 ... ‐3.8 ‐0.9 Gasoline, EBR 18,221 15,036 17,954 19,690 18,363 ‐35.4 ‐29.9 9,664 8,336 7,805 7,384 7,464 4.0 ‐5.7 Contracting 36,737 33,501 35,583 44,591 ... ‐21.9 1.0 Hotel/Motel 5,640 3,631 3,400 3,219 ... ‐11.0 ‐1.8 42 48 46 62 72 38.5 ‐11.1 42 48 46 62 72 44.0 ‐6.7 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C‐40 Total Units Single Family Units “Arizona has been the second‐fastest growing state over the past several decades, and is expected to continue riding the crest for at least the next few decades. Over the next 30 years, Arizona will add more than six million residents, nearly doubling in size. We can only guess what Arizona will be like, but it’s clear that a great deal of change lies ahead…” www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 25 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH CENTER McClelland Hall, Room 103 P.O. Box 210108 1130 E. Helen Street Tucson, AZ, 85721‐0108 Phone: 520‐621‐2155 Fax: 520‐621‐2150 E‐mail: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu Marshall J. Vest Director (520) 621‐4075 mvest@eller.arizona.edu Alberta Charney, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 621‐2291 acharney@eller.arizona.edu THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications, McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721‐0108. Arizona’s Economy is available online at: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/. As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic data and objective forecasts and analyses. Copyright 2009 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The University of Arizona. Visit us online at www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu! Pia Montoya Database Specialist (520) 621‐2523 pmontoya@eller.arizona.edu Lora Mwaniki‐Lyman Research Economist (520) 626‐6439 loramwa@eller.arizona.edu Maile L. Nadelhoffer Senior Research Economist & Webmaster (520) 621‐4050 mln@eller.arizona.edu William P. Patton, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist (520) 626‐0011 wppatton@eller.arizona.edu Vera Pavlakovich‐Kochi, Ph.D. Senior Regional Scientist (520) 626‐0520 vkp@eller.arizona.edu Valorie Rice Librarian & State Data Center (520) 621‐2109 vrice@eller.arizona.edu Thank you to our community sponsors for their ongoing support of Economic and Business Research Center programs. Arizona Electric Power Cooperative City of Tucson Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Cox Communications Arizona Public Service Company Elliott D. 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