Arizona’s Economy July 2009 - Summer Issue Green Shoots in Arizona? Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director June 1, 2009 The U.S. and Arizona economies remained in free fall during the first quarter of 2009, continuing the plunge that began in the fourth quarter. Early reports for the second quarter suggest that nationwide, a bottom is beginning to form as the rate of decline diminishes and a few measures begin to turn upward. We continue to expect the recession nationwide to come to an end during the summer followed by a gradual recovery. Arizona is expected to lag behind by at least a quarter or two due to lingering challenges facing real estate and massive layoffs in the public sector that still lay ahead. The worst of the financial crisis and the economic downturn appears to be behind us as data for the second quarter begins to arrive. Consumers, investors, and businesses all appear to be tired of hunkering down and are beginning to reengage. Financial markets and the banking system are improving, and the federal stimulus package is set to provide a big boost. On the national scene, consumers are growing more confident, and retailing has improved in recent months. Support for spending includes lower gasoline prices, a wave of mortgage refinancing, and tax refunds from the federal government in the form of reduced withholding on paychecks and rebate checks for Social Security recipients. Consumers also are buoyed by rising financial markets as major stock indexes have gained some 30% since early March. Businesses have slashed payrolls and investment spending during the past year, and they significantly reduced inventories in the first quarter. The recent firming of sales means that profits, cash flow, and production will move upward in the coming months. Credit markets also are looking much better. The yield spread between high yield corporate bonds and 10-year treasuries has narrowed to about half of the spread last fall during the credit market freeze. The gap between the three-month LIBOR rate and comparable Treasury bill yields, which reflects willingness of banks to lend to one another, is now almost back to normal. Results of the fed’s “stress tests” of the nation’s largest banks also provides much needed information about how much new capital must be raised for each bank. Investors, who can now make informed decisions about downside risks, have in recent weeks eagerly responded to stock offerings of affected banks seeking to raise capital. Other positive factors include infrastructure spending, spurred by the Federal stimulus package that will provide a much needed boost to the construction industry in coming months. Housing markets also are getting a boost from recordlow mortgage rates, lower housing prices, and a federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers. Housing affordability now stands at a record high, signaling that now is a great time to buy a house. The national recession is expected to come to an end this summer, with a muted recovery to follow. Historically, recoveries have been powered by interest-sensitive housing and automobile manufacturing and neither appears ready to power a strong recovery. Housing remains burdened with too many vacant homes that will take an extended time to absorb. For new cars, there is an absence of pent-up demand following the high levels of sales in recent years. Additionally, credit markets and the banking system will require at least a couple more years to get back to normal. And if that weren’t enough, commercial real estate markets are just beginning to enter a correction phase and will act as a drag on the economy near term. This means that robust growth is unlikely to return before 2011, and losses suffered during the “Great Recession” likely won’t be recovered until 2013. Recent Evidence for Arizona The “green shoots” identified in the national press are not yet visible at the state level. At this writing, there is little data as yet covering the second quarter for states or local areas. The first quarter data showed that the Arizona economy continued to collapse, much as we had expected. We’ll need at least another quarter of data before promising signs emerge for Arizona. Nationwide, retail sales improved in January and February before declining modestly the following two months. In Arizona, declines continue uninterrupted; sales peaked in early 2007 and were declining at a 13.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in February, the most recent month available. In this environment we welcome news that declines are getting smaller. So the good news is that current readings are better than the 20% rate of decline experienced in last year’s fourth quarter. Arizona personal income increased by only 2.7% in 2008. While Arizona registered one of the smallest increases (ranking 47th among all states), its population grew faster than all but one state (Utah). So, it’s not surprising that per capita personal income grew only 0.4 percent, ranking Arizona at the bottom of all states. Quarterly data shows continuing deterioration as personal income contracted at a 1.3% and 2.6% compound annual rate in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. We expect current dollar personal income to continue to contract through the first half of 2009 and show a loss of 1.2% for the entire year. Growth returns next year with a miniscule gain of 0.2%, followed by a 4.0% gain in 2011. The “U-shaped” bottom for constant dollar personal income over 2008-10 is similar to that experienced during 2001-03 (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Expect Personal Income to Contract For Another Year Job Market Update The current crop of employment data through March shows continued deterioration in labor markets. Nonfarm jobs statewide plummeted at a 9.5% annual rate in the first quarter and were 6.4% lower than one year earlier! With data through March, Arizona ranked 50th for year-over-year job growth. Since topping out in October 2007, some 209,000 jobs have been lost statewide, a decline of 7.8%. Unfortunately, the losses have not yet begun to moderate. The most recent data for employment dynamics unfortunately lags significantly because it is based on unemployment insurance premiums paid by employers (the QCEW program). With data through 2008Q2, we see that some 135,200 jobs were added while 169,000 jobs were lost during the April through June 2008 period. That’s a net loss of nearly 34,000. So while aggregate employment is declining, it’s still possible to find a new job, but if you still have one, now is not a good time to go looking. The lion’s share of the new jobs is in expansions of current firms (105,200) rather than in new firms (30,000). Likewise, losses at continuing firms (132,400) dwarf the numbers for firms closing their doors (36,600) (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: Job Losses Exceed Hirings Unemployment insurance claims, an excellent leading indicator, also continue to soar statewide, nearly doubling during the past 12 months. When this measure turns, it will signal that the end of recession is near. With claims still rising, we can expect the state’s unemployment rate to rise significantly higher. In March the rate stood at 7.8% compared to 4.7% one year earlier. We now expect unemployment to approach 11% by the end of this year and that it will be 2012 before unemployment falls below six percent again (Exhibit 3). Real Estate Markets Residential homebuilding in Arizona has all but ceased. Only four thousand units were permitted during the first quarter. Less than 900 of those were multi-family. Since the peak way back in August 2005 – three-and-a-half years ago -- permits have plummeted nearly 91%. (And when they’ve fallen 100%, there are none left). Market-wide indexes of home prices also continue to decline. Median prices of homes sold on the MLS have fallen to only $120,000 in metro Phoenix as of March 2009. That’s down 43% from a year ago and at a 50% annual rate during the first quarter. Comparable prices in metro Tucson have fallen only 17% in the past year to $165,000; the rate of decline in April was 11.1%. The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller House Price Index for metro Phoenix has fallen 50.8% since peaking in June 2006, and is now back to January 2002 levels. It continues to fall at a rapid rate (42% annualized in February). This index includes repeat sales of houses financed with “exotic” mortgages of recent years. Exhibit 3: Expect the Highest Unemployment Since the Early 1980s The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (aka OFHEO) continued to decline in last year’s fourth quarter in both Tucson and Phoenix. This repeat sales index shows peak-to-current declines of 22.4% in Phoenix and 12.2% in Tucson. The declines are much less than the Case-Shiller index since only properties with conventional financing (conforming loans) are included. It’s next-to-impossible to determine how much the value of a typical house has declined by looking at these indexes. The wide disparity exists primarily because each shows averages for different samples of the market. As the proportion of distressed sales grows, the MLS and Case-Shiller indexes have plummeted. In recent months, two-thirds of sales in the Phoenix area and 70% in Pinal County were bank owned, according to the Phoenix Housing Market Letter (R.L. Brown). Unfortunately, some appraisers (realtors) include distressed sales in their appraisals (CMAs), even though these distressed sales are a very different product -- and are therefore not comparable. Doing so depresses values for “normal” sales by homeowners whose home is occupied and has been well maintained. Homeowner properties have not declined in value nearly as much as aggregate price measures suggest. The good news is that lower prices, coupled with record low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit for new homebuyers, now is a great time to buy a house. Investors are responding by pouring money into the market. In metro Phoenix, investors are buying up thousands each month (6,500 MLS listings sold in March). Since bottoming at the end of 2007, the number of houses sold on the Multiple Listing Service has jumped by 74%. The rate of foreclosures in metro Tucson is much lower than in Phoenix and prices have not dropped nearly as much. As a result, existing home sales remain at a cycle low in Tucson (a 10,000 annual rate). The number of active listings is declining in both metros, even as foreclosures come to market. In metro Tucson, the number of active listings numbered a seasonally adjusted 6700 in April, down from over 10,000 at the April 2007 cycle peak. In metro Phoenix, listings have declined from January 2008’s high of almost 59,000 to 49,500 in March. The number of months supply, which compares the number of listings to the sales rate, now stands at 8.9 months in Tucson and 7.8 in Phoenix. Peaks for these measures, which came at the end of 2007, registered 10.4 and 15.7 months, respectively. Normal supply is five months (Exhibit 4). Falling employment and credit market turmoil has taken a toll on commercial real estate markets. Vacancies are now soaring as businesses close and new construction is evaporating, according to CB Richard Ellis. In metro Phoenix, office vacancies rose to 22.8% in the first quarter, up from 17.5% one year ago. Net absorption is negative and only 2.6 million square feet are under construction. Industrial vacancies stand at 14.5% compared with 9.8% one year ago. Absorption was negative 2.8 million square feet and only 2.9 million square feet was under construction at the end of the first quarter, down from 9.3 million. Retail vacancies rose to 9.7% from 6.5% the prior year. Only 3.1 million square feet was under construction, compared to 7 million one year earlier. Absorption of retail space was negative 790,000 square feet during the quarter. Although the Tucson market is also feeling the effects of recession, the situation is considerably brighter. Office vacancies were 14.9% at year end, up 2.3 points in a year. Industrial vacancies end the year at 6.7%, up from 5.3%, and shopping center vacancies rose to 9.1%, compared to 7.4%. Retail absorption was positive 941,000 square feet during 2008, and 562,000 square feet was under construction at year end. Comparable numbers for industrial were 766,000 and 1.1 million square feet, respectively. Absorption in offices was negative 93,000 square feet, and only 42,000 square feet were under construction. Business capital spending on buildings is expected to remain depressed at least through the end of 2010. Exhibit 4: Signs of Improvement in Housing Markets The Outlook Even with the current crop of dismal data covering the first quarter, we continue to expect that recession’s grip to loosen in coming weeks, the economy to stabilize, and then begin a gradual recovery. Losses in nonfarm employment statewide will moderate but not bottom until the first half of next year. Part of the reason for that are large layoffs in the public sector (schools, state and local governments, and universities) that are just now beginning and the coming shake-out in commercial real estate. It will be 2013 before employment losses economy-wide are recovered and a new expansion can begin. The recession is much deeper in metro Phoenix than in metro Tucson. Nonfarm employment will decline by 6.1% this year in Phoenix, compared to -4.1% in Tucson. Retail sales this year will show declines of 7.0% and 3.4%, respectively. Personal income will decline by 1.9% in Phoenix but hold steady in Tucson. Hopefully by next quarter the data for Arizona will begin to reveal that a bottom is beginning to form. Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change Phoenix-Mesa Metro Personal Income ($ mill) percentt change h Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid‐year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods‐Producing percent change Service‐Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 211,614.40 212,066.70 220,640.40 235,407.60 255,119.30 277,842.40 301,184.80 -1.2 0.2 4 6.7 8.4 8.9 8.4 45,222 45,968 46,948 48,147 49,711 51,484 53,335 2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 72,488.20 77,286.80 84,080.00 90,402.80 97,523.00 104,723.00 112,228.10 -7.7 6.6 8.8 7.5 7.9 7.4 7.2 6,584.60 6,679.60 6,814.00 6,971.40 7,145.60 7,331.00 7,519.50 1.3 1.4 2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 12,090 16,380 32,266 45,752 57,567 64,277 66,308 -51.6 35.5 97 41.8 25.8 11.7 3.2 2,494.60 2,437.70 2,477.70 2,576.70 2,712.20 2,848.90 2,972.30 -5 314.6 -16.2 2,180.00 -3.1 481.8 -6.8 365.2 -5.7 249.9 -7.5 434.4 -0.1 -2.3 280.6 -10.8 2,157.20 -1 467.5 -3 352.9 -3.4 247.1 -1.1 431.4 -0.7 1.6 277.1 -1.3 2,200.70 2 478.7 2.4 357.9 1.4 257.1 4 427.7 -0.9 4 294.4 6.3 2,282.40 3.7 502.8 5 374.3 4.6 271.5 5.6 431.3 0.9 5.3 326 10.7 2,386.40 4.6 531 5.6 399 6.6 284.8 4.9 441.8 2.4 5 357 9.5 2,492.10 4.4 558.5 5.2 425.4 6.6 296.4 4.1 452.2 2.4 4.3 378.8 6.1 2,593.80 4.1 584.9 4.7 449.7 5.7 307.5 3.8 462.4 2.2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 147,219.10 ‐1.9 19 49,998 3 49,083.00 ‐8.7 4,334.80 1.2 7,747 ‐58.2 1,763.90 ‐6.1 225.3 ‐18.9 1,538.60 ‐3.8 344.4 ‐10.3 303.9 ‐2.2 170.7 ‐7.9 242.1 ‐1.7 145,069.10 ‐1.5 15 51,231 2.5 51,832.10 5.6 4,403.40 1.6 9,619 24.2 1,686.30 ‐4.4 196.3 ‐12.9 1,490.00 ‐3.2 327.2 ‐5 271.9 ‐10.5 169.7 ‐0.6 240.6 ‐0.6 151,106.00 4.2 42 52,752 3 56,590.50 9.2 4,506.00 2.3 21,120 119.6 1,706.80 1.2 195 ‐0.7 1,511.90 1.5 333.7 2 266.6 ‐2 177.1 4.4 238.9 ‐0.7 162,803.30 7.7 77 54,282 2.9 62,247.90 10 4,633.00 2.8 31,958 51.3 1,792.00 5 212.8 9.1 1,579.20 4.5 354.3 6.2 281.1 5.4 187.7 6 242.7 1.6 177,568.50 9.1 91 56,006 3.2 67,641.90 8.7 4,773.70 3 39,853 24.7 1,903.30 6.2 241.1 13.3 1,662.20 5.3 377.4 6.5 302 7.4 197.6 5.3 251 3.4 193,412.60 8.9 89 57,784 3.2 72,461.00 7.1 4,917.20 3 43,585 9.4 2,011.80 5.7 262.8 9 1,749.00 5.2 397.6 5.4 329.3 9.1 206.3 4.4 258.6 3 209,258.00 8.2 82 59,616 3.2 76,924.20 6.2 5,060.00 2.9 43,243 ‐0.8 2,106.80 4.7 276.6 5.2 1,830.20 4.6 415.9 4.6 354.5 7.6 214.5 4 265.4 2.6 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change 2009 32,958.50 0 41,021 1.7 10,816.40 -6.1 1,017.80 0.6 1,347 -58.2 2010 33,072.60 0.3 42,054 2.5 11,253.40 4 1,029.00 1.1 3,208 138.3 2011 34,483.00 4.3 42,731 1.6 11,795.60 4.8 1,051.50 2.2 7,240 125.7 2012 37,075.50 7.5 43,668 2.2 12,638.40 7.1 1,082.50 2.9 10,187 40.7 2013 40,140.90 8.3 45,175 3.5 13,558.00 7.3 1,114.90 3 10,691 5 2014 43,213.70 7.7 46,912 3.8 14,462.80 6.7 1,143.40 2.6 9,340 -12.6 2015 46,088.40 6.7 48,677 3.8 15,312.70 5.9 1,167.60 2.1 7,813 -16.3 366.1 -4.1 45.3 -12.1 320.8 -2.8 59.3 -4.9 51.1 -0.1 38.3 -4.2 74.8 -6.9 357.2 -2.4 41.9 -7.5 315.4 -1.7 58.1 -2 48 -6.2 38 -0.9 73.3 -2 364.2 1.9 43.7 4.4 320.5 1.6 59.3 2 46.8 -2.4 39.4 3.7 74.2 1.3 382.8 5.1 49.7 13.7 333.1 4 62.1 4.7 48.5 3.5 41.5 5.4 76.4 3 403.2 5.3 55.4 11.6 347.8 4.4 65 4.7 52 7.2 43.6 5 78.5 2.7 418.4 3.8 57.8 4.3 360.6 3.7 67.5 3.8 55.5 6.8 45.3 4 79.9 1.8 427.8 2.2 57 -1.4 370.7 2.8 69.6 3.2 57.9 4.5 46.9 3.4 80.9 1.2 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA % change versus year ago DEC 2008 JAN 2009 FEB 2009 MAR 2009 APR 2009 3,163.5 3,150.2 3,147.8 3,125.5 3,142.4 1.5 3.0 2,951.9 2,922.8 2,915.5 2,884.9 2,909.0 -1.9 0.3 211.6 227.4 232.3 240.6 233.4 78.6 66.6 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.7 58.6 56.5 2,561.3 2,486.4 2,490.8 2,481.2 2,479.6 -6.6 -4.2 13.0 12.4 12.0 11.9 10.5 -19.2 7.1 Construction 162.9 151.9 146.3 143.4 140.7 -27.8 -20.9 Durable Goods Manufacturing 136.9 134.8 134.0 133.8 133.4 -4.9 -5.0 Fabricated Metal Products 18.1 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.1 -11.4 -8.2 Computer and Electronic Prod. 41.4 41.2 41.0 40.8 40.7 -3.3 -2.7 Aerospace Products and Parts 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 2.9 2.2 Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing 33.9 32.9 32.6 32.4 33.1 -4.3 -3.4 Wholesale Trade 104.9 103.2 102.7 101.7 100.8 -6.8 -3.6 Retail Trade 314.0 300.9 298.2 300.1 298.4 -7.8 -6.3 Utilities 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 -1.6 -0.3 Transportation and Warehousing 74.9 71.0 70.1 70.2 70.2 -5.3 -2.1 Information 40.6 40.3 40.4 40.1 40.2 -4.5 -2.7 124.1 124.0 123.6 124.0 123.2 -1.8 -3.2 Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) for most recent: 12-months month Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Accommodation 49.8 47.9 47.6 46.6 46.1 -10.8 -5.8 366.0 351.1 354.3 348.4 352.8 -10.2 -7.6 -0.1 45.5 43.5 43.7 43.6 43.4 -6.1 276.6 274.4 274.7 274.6 274.2 0.5 3.8 34.4 33.9 33.9 34.0 33.9 -9.8 -2.7 47.7 46.2 46.4 47.1 47.6 -3.4 34 -2.3 23 179.3 176.6 178.5 180.0 181.8 -5.4 -4.5 Other Services 97.9 94.9 96.0 95.4 94.2 -6.7 -1.9 Federal Government 55.3 54.8 55.2 55.7 58.4 8.6 5.2 391.0 379.1 388.1 385.7 384.2 -1.1 1.5 State and Local Government Education 212.7 201.7 211.9 210.8 210.9 0.9 2.8 Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC 40.5 39.6 38.5 39.1 38.1 -5.7 -2.7 Construction 19.70 19.32 19.38 19.38 19.72 5.9 5.7 Manufacturing 16.47 17.14 17.15 17.29 17.35 7.4 4.5 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 15.12 15.44 15.47 15.41 15.14 1.5 4.9 Retail Trade 12.32 12.90 13.06 13.16 13.01 4.2 4.1 Wholesale Trade 20.71 21.67 21.29 21.11 20.57 5.9 4.2 Food Svcs and Drinking Places State and Local Government Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC continued on next page ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA (continued from previous page) % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales 6,956,888 5,578,628 5,685,263 6,128,227 ... -16.8 -8.1 Retail 4,840,478 3,393,518 3,460,648 3,834,036 ... -17.8 -11.7 Food, EBR 1,013,054 1,018,920 1,013,473 1,005,494 ... 0.4 4.1 Restaurants & Bars 754,089 757,425 795,168 847,163 ... -8.2 -4.4 Gasoline, EBR 349,267 408,765 415,973 441,533 404,249 -46.1 -10.7 228,204 222,773 207,862 234,186 224,122 -1.3 -5.4 Utilities 641,237 735,821 644,448 606,161 ... 7.2 1.9 Communications 247,542 213,142 243,894 240,585 ... -25.6 -13.9 -7.1 Gallons (000s) ADOT Amusements Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel 76,916 88,353 99,602 111,782 ... -14.5 290,014 273,549 288,147 288,635 ... -13.4 -2.7 1,360,692 968,503 950,390 1,029,137 ... -33.6 -21.7 13,586 21,552 22,596 33,701 ... -80.4 -30.0 148,818 177,021 213,803 240,679 ... -15.6 -10.6 795 782 924 909 1,117 -62.5 -51.3 723 608 602 820 1,138 -44.4 -51.5 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 4 13 2 8 -21 -122.6 -68.7 68 161 320 81 0 -100.0 -47.7 Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 1,874 1,536 41 1,713 1,364 37 1,875 1,499 43 2,700 2,252 49 2,902 2,429 49 87.0 96.8 96.0 91.5 104.8 85.1 Chapter 13 297 312 333 399 423 44.4 45.0 I II III IV I 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 quarter 4-quarters 6445.1 6481.8 6511.9 6533.9 6554.6 1.7 2.1 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA % change h versus year ago for most recent: Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase 14.2 13.3 13.7 12.8 14.7 3.6 -5.5 Births 25.8 24.7 24.7 24.0 26.0 0.8 -3.4 Deaths 11.7 11.4 11.0 11.2 11.4 -2.6 -0.7 22.5 23.4 9.8 7.7 6.3 -72.2 -51.0 Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income 213,294 215,405 214,424 213,655 212,386 -0.4 1.7 156,724 155,638 155,418 154,770 153,038 -2.4 -0.4 17,811 17,707 17,633 17,533 17,436 -2.1 -0.1 759 764 763 770 762 0.4 3.5 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 39,071 39,180 39,301 38,521 37,075 -5.1 0.3 Plus: Transfer Payments 34,552 37,532 36,573 37,124 38,947 12.7 12.0 -0.4 Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries 117,231 116,286 116,173 115,767 114,271 -2.5 Other Labor Income EBR 24,986 24,921 24,894 24,948 24,998 0.0 0.8 Proprietor's Income 14,301 14,298 14,329 13,891 ... -4.4 -3.1 119 94 40 11 ... -95.3 -73.8 Farm 14,183 14,205 14,289 13,879 ... -2.9 -1.8 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Nonfarm 33,094 33,232 32,928 32,699 32,402 -2.1 -0.4 Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR 43,331 43,380 43,700 44,268 ... 3.7 2.8 % change versus year ago PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment for most recent: DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 2136.4 2124.7 2122.7 2109.1 2117.7 1.2 2.3 2004.5 1982.4 1976.1 1956.1 1972.7 -2.1 -0.2 131.9 142.3 146.6 153.0 145.0 84.2 72.9 6.3 6.2 6.9 7.4 7.3 82.5 69.0 1826.1 1771.6 1774.0 1768.3 1767.8 -6.8 -4.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 -13.5 5.4 Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction 121.5 113.5 109.2 107.2 105.5 -27.8 -21.5 Durable Goods 103.2 101.2 100.6 100.5 100.3 -4.4 -5.0 37.8 37.6 37.5 37.3 37.2 -2.9 -2.8 Computer and Electronic Prod. 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.6 4.0 2.3 Non-Durable Goods Aerospace Products and Parts 25.8 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.2 -5.6 -4.4 Wholesale Trade 86.9 85.6 85.6 85.2 84.6 -5.6 -2.9 222.2 213.5 211.2 212.8 211.2 -7.8 -6.2 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 1.1 0.6 58.7 55.2 54.5 54.6 54.5 -7.0 -3.1 Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 30.8 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 -2.6 -0.2 107.1 106.7 106.7 106.9 106.5 -1.8 -3.2 39.0 37.7 37.3 36.3 35.8 -10.3 -4.6 291.7 279.6 281.6 276.6 280.4 -11.0 -8.4 35.5 33.9 34.6 34.6 34.6 -2.0 2.1 183.7 182.2 182.1 181.6 181.5 0.2 4.0 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 25.6 25.4 26.0 26.6 26.7 -2.6 -0.5 Accommodation 30.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 -1.3 -0.5 125.3 123.4 124.4 125.9 127.9 -4.6 -4.0 73.7 71.5 72.3 71.3 70.4 -4.5 0.4 Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.0 24.2 6.6 5.7 229.8 222.3 227.9 227.9 226.0 -2.0 0.0 123.2 116.5 122.6 123.1 122.3 -0.4 0.1 4,783,642 3,789,644 3,856,040 4,190,662 ... -16.9 -9.3 3,367,158 2,337,277 2,379,158 2,665,171 ... -17.7 -13.0 State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR 665,563 653,026 649,535 644,421 ... -2.0 3.1 Restaurants & Bars 530,291 539,712 559,879 599,885 ... -7.4 -5.0 Gasoline, EBR 220,631 259,629 267,467 281,185 257,083 -46.8 -11.0 Contracting 940,964 637,633 666,557 709,673 ... -36.9 -25.6 Hotel/Motel 92,177 125,104 142,900 162,507 ... -18.7 -14.0 441 552 647 579 745 -66.5 -51.9 426 384 326 508 769 -42.8 -52.9 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 2 12 0 2 -24 -141.4 -75.6 12 157 321 69 0 -100.0 -45.6 1,065,102 854,270 943,990 1,214,575 1,367,357 1.1 -7.2 5,524 4,736 5,477 7,636 8,564 75.7 43.5 192,813 180,378 172,355 159,059 159,663 -42.5 -34.1 3,171,614 2,999,552 2,824,825 3,498,397 3,290,532 -6.3 63 -8.4 84 39,119 39,237 36,019 40,711 39,093 -10.2 -10.4 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Totall Passengers Tota Total Aircraft Movements TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) % change versus year ago Civilian Labor Force (000s), ADOC Employment DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 489.0 485.9 488.7 484.3 486.2 2.9 5.1 459.0 454.2 455.9 450.3 454.5 0.2 2.8 30.0 31.7 32.8 34.0 31.7 65.1 61.1 6.2 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.0 59.1 52.7 377.5 365.7 369.1 366.9 368.0 -4.5 -2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 -26.3 -1.4 Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s), ADOC Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction 19.1 17.5 17.0 16.8 16.5 -29.2 -20.0 Manufacturing 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 -2.9 -2.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.4 2.5 2.4 Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities Information 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 -3.1 -3.2 42.0 40.2 40.1 39.9 39.6 -8.8 -6.9 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 -5.5 -5.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 -15.1 -16.0 Financial Activities 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.7 -3.5 -3.4 Professional and Business Services 50.4 48.5 49.3 48.6 49.2 -5.9 -3.8 Educational and Health Services 58.7 57.6 57.9 57.8 57.6 1.2 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.2 -1.9 -2.5 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 7.2 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 -4.1 0.1 Food Svcs and Drinking Places Accommodation 27.1 26.9 27.5 27.8 27.9 -2.4 -2.5 Other Services 15.1 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.4 -10.0 -3.6 Federall Government Federa 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.3 13.9 75 7.5 State and Local Government 72.7 69.5 71.8 70.7 71.2 0.3 5.0 46.2 43.1 45.6 44.8 45.4 2.7 7.5 1,039,776 829,961 856,078 903,764 ... -16.6 -6.9 State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s), ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail 720,134 503,497 517,953 562,439 ... -18.1 -10.6 Food, EBR 155,586 155,237 154,408 153,192 ... -0.4 4.1 Restaurants & Bars 115,777 114,712 126,305 129,140 ... -8.1 -2.6 48,278 56,515 57,412 58,993 54,234 -45.3 -9.1 Contracting Gasoline, EBR 181,690 135,896 129,597 143,183 ... -19.8 -11.7 Hotel/Motel 21,750 23,137 36,402 34,820 ... 2.3 -11.8 107 103 115 149 164 -56.5 -55.9 99 96 108 131 162 -53.2 -50.5 8 8 7 18 2 -93.8 -80.8 161,044 126,245 153,410 187,797 177,507 -30.6 -25.2 802 612 693 923 923 -9.1 -10.0 200,803 206,282 221,371 203,464 192,315 -23.7 -16.9 317,531 288,675 302,517 336,211 322,964 -16.1 -12.8 15,032 17,771 15,261 16,095 15,469 -18.5 -21.0 New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA % change versus year ago I II III IV I 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 for most recent: 4,246.8 4,269.9 4,286.9 4,300.9 4,314.6 1.6 2.3 10.9 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.2 2.6 -1.3 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 2.8 0.0 quarter 4-quarters Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 3.0 2.2 18.6 12.3 6.1 3.0 2.4 -86.9 -71.6 150,437 150,584 150,220 149,240 148,307 -1.4 1.1 117,365 117,198 116,631 115,576 114,552 -2.4 0.1 13,196 13,173 13,106 12,990 12,878 -2.4 0.1 -193 -195 -197 -199 -200 -3.7 -3.7 25,941 25,609 25,114 24,440 23,796 -8.3 -2.8 Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 20,520 21,144 21,779 22,414 23,038 12.3 11.6 35,424 35,266 35,042 34,700 34,374 -3.0 -1.1 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA % change versus year ago for most recent: I II III IV I 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 1007.5 1010.4 1012.4 1014.0 1015.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 4.5 -4.3 Births 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.0 -0.2 Deaths 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 -97.9 -81.4 32,778 32,968 33,051 33,000 32,955 0.5 2.9 21,194 21,219 21,172 21,035 20,904 -1.4 1.1 2,443 2,444 2,436 2,418 2,401 -1.7 1.1 quarter 4-quarters Demographics & Vital Vital St Statistics atistics (000 (000ss, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 184 183 182 181 181 -1.7 0.3 7,541 7,510 7,423 7,271 7,126 -5.5 0.2 6,302 6,501 6,711 6,930 7,145 13.4 11.8 32,533 32,629 32,646 32,543 32,450 -0.3 1.7 APACHE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 21,875 22,075 22,025 21,675 21,575 5.8 6.4 19,200 19,200 19,075 18,875 18,950 1.1 2.6 2,675 2,875 2,950 2,800 2,625 59.1 47.6 12.2 13.0 13.4 12.9 12.2 50.4 38.6 19,975 19,575 19,525 19,500 19,350 -3.4 -1.7 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 6,800 6,475 6,250 6,300 6,200 -16.2 -5.5 Goods-Producing 1,025 900 900 900 900 -5.3 17.3 Service-Providing 18,950 18,675 18,625 18,600 18,450 -3.3 -2.5 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,900 1,875 1,775 1,750 1,750 -13.6 -5.7 Other Private Service-Providing 3,875 3,700 3,575 3,650 3,550 -19.8 -9.7 13,175 13,100 13,275 13,200 13,150 4.2 0.5 Government Federal Government 3,300 3,250 3,250 3,300 3,475 5.3 0.0 State and Local Government 9,875 9,850 10,025 9,900 9,675 3.8 0.7 12,102 11,652 11,548 12,831 ... -51.0 -8.8 8,006 6,662 6,599 7,583 ... -58.2 -20.1 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars 790 1,054 718 844 ... 7.2 11.0 3,305 3,936 4,230 4,405 4,396 -42.8 0.1 2,160 2,145 2,114 2,336 2,437 4.7 5.3 Contracting 7,775 5,599 4,596 4,480 ... -4.3 17.5 Hotel/Motel Hotel/Motel 902 704 622 852 ... -8.8 88 16.2 Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT COCHISE COUNTY % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 61,075 61,425 61,175 60,725 60,925 2.6 5.2 57,325 57,550 57,150 56,700 57,150 0.6 3.4 3,750 3,875 4,025 4,025 3,775 46.6 46.4 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.2 42.9 39.4 37,600 37,000 36,950 36,900 36,775 -4.1 -1.0 Total Private 24,875 24,400 24,250 24,325 24,125 -7.1 -3.3 Goods-Producing 2,375 2,375 2,275 2,250 2,125 -27.4 -15.6 1,725 1,725 1,625 1,600 1,500 -31.0 -17.7 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 650 650 650 650 625 -16.7 -9.8 35,225 34,625 34,675 34,650 34,650 -2.2 0.2 6,525 6,300 21,975 22,075 22,000 229.6 51.4 Information 475 450 6,225 6,250 6,225 1085.7 245.5 Financial Activities 675 650 450 450 450 -59.1 -37.8 Professional and Business Services 6,025 5,925 675 650 675 -87.3 -15.7 Educational and Health Services 3,975 3,975 5,900 5,850 5,900 41.3 17.4 Leisure and Hospitality 3,950 3,875 3,950 3,925 3,925 -8.7 -3.9 Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services 875 850 3,900 4,100 3,975 318.4 79.7 12,725 12,600 875 850 850 -93.1 -20.5 Federal Government 5,075 5,075 12,700 12,575 12,650 159.5 44.3 State and Local Government 7,650 7,525 5,125 5,075 5,125 -31.7 -5.2 Government Sales ($000), ADOR Gross Retail 97,749 73,571 75,759 85,879 ... -10.1 -3.4 Retail 79,665 54,083 55,934 64,759 ... -4.9 -5.1 Restaurants & Bars 10,798 10,999 11,286 12,059 ... 5.6 0.4 Gasoline, EBR 7,287 8,489 8,539 9,061 8,288 -47.2 -2.7 4,761 4,627 4,267 4,806 4,595 -3.5 1.5 Contracting 25,203 18,169 17,995 14,604 ... -47.6 -14.1 Hotel/Motel 4,819 3,216 4,318 4,175 ... -12.1 2.0 24 8 13 16 23 -4.2 -41.2 24 8 13 16 23 -4.2 -41.2 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units COCONINO COUNTY % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 74,300 75,200 74,000 73,200 73,100 0.4 3.8 69,600 70,000 68,900 68,400 68,800 -1.7 1.8 4,700 5,200 5,100 4,800 4,300 53.6 55.1 6.3 6.9 6.9 6.6 5.9 52.9 49.3 63,400 62,700 61,900 61,800 61,900 -6.1 -2.8 Total Private 42,200 41,400 41,200 41,200 41,000 -9.3 -5.7 Goods-Producing 6,400 6,200 6,100 6,000 6,000 -11.8 -9.3 2,700 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,300 -25.8 -20.3 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 0.0 1.1 57,000 56,500 55,800 55,800 55,900 -5.4 -2.0 9,500 9,200 9,100 9,100 9,100 -8.1 -5.0 400 400 400 400 400 0.0 -9.4 Financial Activities 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 -5.6 -8.0 Professional and Business Services 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 -9.1 -6.0 Educational and Health Services 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 0.0 1.4 11,700 11,400 11,400 11,500 11,300 -15.7 -9.1 Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 -4.8 5.1 21,200 21,300 20,700 20,600 20,900 1.0 3.7 2,800 2,700 2,700 2,800 3,100 10.7 1.4 18,400 18,600 18,000 17,800 17,800 -0.6 4.0 Sales ($000 ($000s) s), ADOR Gross Retail 126,353 94,364 105,015 112,775 ... -19.8 -4.8 Retail 91,783 63,605 73,471 75,355 ... -9.7 -3.9 Restaurants & Bars 23,616 18,208 20,114 23,871 ... -25.7 -2.8 Gasoline, EBR 10,954 12,551 11,431 13,549 13,351 -40.7 -13.7 7,157 6,840 5,712 7,186 7,402 8.4 -11.4 Contracting 31,480 20,450 18,919 24,382 ... -4.6 -5.7 Hotel/Motel 13,045 7,893 9,978 15,280 ... -15.0 3.6 19 5 5 11 9 -62.5 -48.1 19 5 5 11 9 -62.5 -47.3 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units GILA COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change versus year ago for most recent: DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 22,150 22,025 21,900 21,700 22,150 0.7 4.0 20,425 20,075 19,850 19,500 20,025 -4.8 0.7 1,725 1,950 2,050 2,200 2,125 117.9 76.0 7.8 8.9 9.4 10.1 9.6 116.5 69.8 14,075 13,525 13,425 13,250 13,525 -9.4 -3.6 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 9,250 8,825 8,775 8,750 8,875 -8.5 -3.9 Goods-Producing 2,750 2,600 2,625 2,575 2,650 -3.6 3.3 Service-Providing 11,325 10,925 10,800 10,675 10,875 -10.7 -5.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,300 2,250 2,175 2,150 2,175 -3.3 -3.7 Other Private Service-Providing 4,200 3,975 3,975 4,025 4,050 -13.8 -8.1 Government 4,825 4,700 4,650 4,500 4,650 -11.0 -3.0 Federal Government 450 450 450 450 450 0.0 2.6 4,375 4,250 4,200 4,050 4,200 -12.0 -3.6 32,983 27,727 28,237 29,252 ... -23.6 -7.8 25,474 19,454 20,273 20,468 ... -19.7 -8.6 Restaurants & Bars 4,446 4,632 4,269 4,547 ... -4.4 -2.5 Gasoline, EBR 3,063 3,641 3,695 4,237 3,767 -50.4 -11.6 2,001 1,984 1,847 2,247 2,088 -9.2 -11.0 Contracting 8,627 8,817 3,225 5,880 ... -27.3 -6.2 Hotel/Motel Hotel/Motel 752 678 896 747 ... 201.1 -5.4 54 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT % change versus year ago GRAHAM COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 16,475 16,025 15,650 15,300 14,525 -8.6 6.8 15,025 14,325 13,825 13,425 12,575 -16.7 2.5 1,450 1,700 1,825 1,875 1,950 143.8 94.3 8.8 10.6 11.7 12.3 13.4 166.8 84.6 8,775 8,400 8,350 8,125 8,300 -10.5 -1.9 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 5,875 5,650 5,475 5,350 5,250 -15.3 -3.1 Goods-Producing 1,300 1,225 1,125 1,025 875 -40.7 5.6 Service-Providing 7,475 7,175 7,225 7,100 7,425 -4.8 -3.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,675 1,550 1,475 1,475 1,525 -3.2 -2.9 Other Private Service-Providing 2,900 2,875 2,875 2,850 2,850 -9.5 -6.7 Government 2,900 2,750 2,875 2,775 3,050 -0.8 0.9 Federal Government 425 400 425 400 400 0.0 3.6 2,475 2,350 2,450 2,375 2,650 -0.9 0.4 23,503 17,671 16,852 19,653 ... -27.5 -11.9 20,215 14,126 13,491 16,071 ... -26.6 -11.5 Restaurants & Bars 2,022 2,043 1,870 2,078 ... -8.2 -5.1 Gasoline, EBR 1,266 1,503 1,491 1,504 1,468 -45.6 -22.5 827 819 745 798 814 -0.4 -19.4 4,834 3,485 4,204 2,728 ... -56.2 23.1 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting GREENLEE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 4,650 4,550 4,425 4,350 4,300 -3.4 7.6 4,250 4,050 3,900 3,800 3,550 -17.0 2.6 400 500 525 550 750 328.6 148.5 8.6 11.0 11.9 12.6 17.4 343.5 133.9 5,100 4,550 4,225 4,125 2,925 -42.6 -0.8 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Total Private 4,525 3,975 3,650 3,575 2,350 -48.6 -1.4 Goods-Producing 4,000 3,475 3,150 3,125 1,900 -51.6 0.7 Service-Providing 1,100 1,075 1,075 1,000 1,025 -12.8 -5.9 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 200 200 200 175 150 -45.5 -24.8 Other Private Service-Providing 325 300 300 275 300 -20.0 -4.9 Government 575 575 575 550 575 9.5 3.5 Federal Government State and Local Government 25 25 25 25 25 0.0 -11.8 550 550 550 525 550 10.0 4.5 11,976 10,225 5,608 7,386 ... -62.7 38.9 11,130 9,389 4,835 6,642 ... -63.8 41.3 Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars 442 406 369 364 ... -34.2 12.0 Gasoline, EBR 405 430 404 380 347 -67.8 6.0 264 234 202 202 192 -41.1 7.0 6,835 14,603 2,390 630 ... -93.4 -25.2 379 558 521 546 ... -38.1 -9.7 97 Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel Hote l/Motel (inc (includes ludes Graham county county)) LA PAZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 7,550 7,625 7,550 7,425 7,575 1.3 -0.8 6,950 6,975 6,900 6,775 6,975 -1.8 -3.9 600 650 650 650 600 60.0 55.0 7.9 8.5 8.6 8.8 7.9 57.9 56.4 5,025 4,925 4,950 4,900 4,875 -7.6 -6.8 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 2,525 2,475 2,475 2,475 2,450 -11.7 -10.0 Goods-Producing Total Private 225 225 225 225 225 -30.8 -31.0 Service-Providing 4,800 4,700 4,725 4,675 4,650 -6.1 -5.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,225 1,200 1,175 1,175 1,200 -2.0 -4.5 Other Private Service-Providing 1,075 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,025 -16.3 -9.8 Government 2,500 2,450 2,475 2,425 2,425 -3.0 -3.2 Federal Government 325 325 325 325 325 0.0 0.6 2,175 2,125 2,150 2,100 2,100 -3.4 -3.7 18,798 23,836 19,284 19,825 ... -22.8 -7.3 12,051 15,582 11,780 11,197 ... -13.4 -6.3 Restaurants & Bars 2,371 2,723 2,481 3,006 ... 28.4 -1.8 Gasoline, EBR 4,375 5,531 5,023 5,622 4,618 -43.5 -12.8 2,859 3,015 2,510 2,982 2,560 3.3 -6.8 Contracting 2,518 1,421 1,947 3,742 ... -9.9 -15.5 Hotel/Motel Hotel/Motel 431 711 456 514 ... 16 1.6 -8.1 81 State and Local Government Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT MOHAVE COUNTY % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 93,300 94,200 93,800 93,600 93,500 0.3 2.5 85,300 85,200 85,100 84,700 85,200 -3.3 -0.8 8,000 9,000 8,700 8,900 8,300 62.7 63.1 8.6 9.6 9.3 9.5 8.9 62.2 59.2 49,100 48,100 48,300 48,500 48,400 -8.7 -5.6 Total Private 40,400 39,700 39,600 39,800 39,600 -10.8 -7.4 Goods-Producing 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,400 7,400 -17.8 -12.2 4,400 4,200 4,100 4,100 4,000 -25.9 -17.6 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 3,400 3,400 3,300 3,300 3,400 -5.6 -3.9 41,300 40,500 40,900 41,100 41,000 -6.8 -4.2 11,100 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 -8.3 -3.5 800 800 800 900 800 -11.1 -8.8 Financial Activities 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 -12.5 -13.2 Professional and Business Services 3,300 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 -11.1 -9.2 Educational and Health Services 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300 -5.2 -1.9 Leisure and Hospitality 5,700 5,600 5,700 5,800 5,800 -9.4 -9.8 Other Services 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,000 -16.7 -9.2 Government 8,700 8,400 8,700 8,700 8,800 2.3 3.8 500 500 500 500 600 20.0 1.7 8,200 7,900 8,200 8,200 8,200 1.2 3.9 Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000 ($000s) s), ADOR Gross Retail 147,642 118,628 128,074 141,599 ... -20.6 -10.0 119,602 88,699 96,089 105,677 ... -15.9 -11.3 Restaurants & Bars 14,966 14,737 16,387 18,507 ... -16.7 -6.9 Gasoline, EBR 13,074 15,192 15,599 17,415 16,648 -44.4 -10.7 8,542 8,279 7,795 9,237 9,230 1.6 -6.4 Contracting 31,635 37,002 28,621 33,391 ... -13.5 -20.5 Hotel/Motel 2,330 2,476 2,963 3,701 ... -20.0 -13.8 17 17 20 22 17 -80.2 -58.6 17 17 20 22 17 -72.6 -55.5 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units NAVAJO COUNTY % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 39,225 39,400 39,400 39,050 39,000 0.6 2.9 34,725 34,275 34,300 34,025 34,175 -5.2 -1.7 4,500 5,125 5,100 5,025 4,825 77.1 66.5 11.5 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.4 76.0 61.9 27,675 26,775 26,900 26,925 26,675 -10.3 -6.1 Total Private 17,400 16,650 16,575 16,675 16,575 -11.8 -8.5 Goods-Producing 2,600 2,425 2,400 2,400 2,350 -22.3 -21.4 2,025 1,900 1,875 1,875 1,825 -18.9 -21.2 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 575 525 525 525 525 -32.3 -22.2 25,075 24,350 24,500 24,525 24,325 -8.9 -4.1 5,525 5,200 5,100 5,150 5,125 -5.5 -6.7 Information 950 950 950 950 950 0.0 10.0 Financial Activities 475 475 475 475 425 -19.0 -18.1 Professional and Business Services 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,225 1,200 -7.7 -5.3 Educational and Health Services 3,225 3,150 3,200 3,200 3,200 -7.9 -5.5 Leisure and Hospitality 2,750 2,575 2,575 2,600 2,700 -17.6 -6.0 Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services 675 675 675 675 625 -24.2 -6.6 10,275 10,125 10,325 10,250 10,100 -7.6 -1.7 Federal Government 1,675 1,600 1,600 1,625 1,775 6.0 0.2 State and Local Government 8,600 8,525 8,725 8,625 8,325 -10.0 -2.0 81,955 71,660 68,419 71,854 ... -21.0 3.7 67,527 56,962 52,834 55,582 ... -17.7 5.5 6,792 5,889 6,975 6,677 ... -10.6 -6.1 Government Sales ($000 ($000s) s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR 7,636 8,809 8,610 9,595 8,960 -42.4 -3.6 4,989 4,801 4,303 5,089 4,968 5.4 0.0 Contracting 11,667 14,768 5,306 9,245 ... -48.6 -37.6 Hotel/Motel 2,039 1,911 1,900 2,407 ... -24.6 9.7 14 5 2 6 8 -78.9 -54.7 14 5 2 6 8 -78.9 -53.4 Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units SANTA CRUZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 18,250 18,350 18,325 17,950 17,850 1.7 5.9 16,125 16,300 16,250 15,900 15,900 -3.5 1.5 2,125 2,050 2,075 2,050 1,950 81.4 60.1 11.6 11.2 11.3 11.4 10.9 78.3 50.5 13,650 13,575 13,575 13,375 13,200 -8.5 -3.1 Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total 9,700 9,600 9,575 9,375 9,225 -13.6 -6.3 Goods-Producing Total Private 925 900 900 875 900 -14.3 -1.7 Service-Providing 12,725 12,675 12,675 12,500 12,300 -8.0 -3.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,825 5,750 5,700 5,600 5,475 -9.9 -1.1 Other Private Service-Providing 2,950 2,950 2,975 2,900 2,850 -19.7 -15.5 Government 3,950 3,975 4,000 4,000 3,975 6.0 6.1 Federal Government 1,550 1,550 1,575 1,575 1,550 8.8 9.6 State and Local Government 2,400 2,425 2,425 2,425 2,425 4.3 4.0 48,469 29,313 27,957 31,411 ... -29.6 -15.6 41,161 22,039 20,888 23,281 ... -30.4 -14.3 Restaurants & Bars 3,764 3,665 3,594 3,962 ... -14.5 -12.9 Gasoline, EBR 3,545 3,609 3,475 4,167 3,819 -34.6 -26.6 2,316 1,967 1,736 2,210 2,117 19.7 -18.0 Contracting 16,316 7,793 6,919 6,395 ... -49.7 9.3 Hotel/Motel Hotel/Motel 1,078 737 1,077 1,087 ... -42.0 -20.7 8 6 5 10 10 -47.4 -56.2 8 6 5 10 10 -47.4 -56.1 Sales ($000s), ADOR Gross Retail Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units YAVAPAI COUNTY % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 97,800 98,700 98,800 98,400 98,600 0.7 1.1 90,700 90,500 90,500 89,700 90,400 -3.5 -2.0 7,100 8,200 8,300 8,700 8,200 95.2 78.3 7.3 8.3 8.4 8.8 8.3 93.9 76.3 58,900 57,400 57,700 57,600 57,300 -8.6 -6.7 Total Private 46,400 45,400 45,100 45,000 44,800 -11.6 -9.5 Goods-Producing 9,100 8,700 8,400 8,100 8,000 -23.8 -18.9 6,200 5,800 5,600 5,300 5,200 -28.8 -21.9 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government 2,900 2,900 2,800 2,800 2,800 -12.5 -11.4 49,800 48,700 49,300 49,500 49,300 -5.6 -4.1 12,100 11,700 11,600 11,700 11,600 -7.2 -5.5 600 600 600 600 600 0.0 -2.7 2,400 2,400 2,300 2,300 2,300 -4.2 -4.3 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 -30.2 -26.8 10,300 10,400 10,500 10,600 10,500 1.9 3.0 7,500 7,300 7,400 7,400 7,500 -6.3 -6.5 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 -38.1 -25.1 12,500 12,000 12,600 12,600 12,500 4.2 5.7 1,400 1,400 1,500 1,500 1,600 33.3 18.8 11,100 10,600 11,100 11,100 10,900 0.9 4.1 Sales ($000 ($000s) s), ADOR Gross Retail 164,590 126,690 126,943 139,403 ... -21.8 -10.2 133,606 95,345 93,852 104,297 ... -19.5 -12.4 Restaurants & Bars 20,014 19,013 20,632 21,906 ... -11.5 -2.6 Gasoline, EBR 10,970 12,332 12,459 13,200 12,235 -46.2 -9.0 7,168 6,721 6,226 7,001 6,783 -1.5 -4.4 Contracting 45,821 30,318 34,297 34,067 ... -38.5 -14.1 Hotel/Motel 5,458 4,780 5,614 8,405 ... -25.8 -9.6 73 25 18 26 24 -57.9 -51.6 27 25 18 26 24 -57.9 -59.5 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 81,300 80,000 79,300 78,600 85,300 7.0 5.1 Employment 68,800 67,700 67,700 66,700 68,000 -1.9 -0.8 Unemployment 12,500 12,300 11,600 11,900 17,300 66.3 41.1 15.4 15.4 14.6 15.1 20.3 55.4 33.4 52,600 50,800 51,200 51,000 50,500 -6.7 -3.6 Total Private 37,200 35,700 35,700 35,500 35,000 -10.9 -6.8 Goods-Producing 5,600 5,500 5,500 5,400 5,300 -17.2 -16.6 3,700 3,600 3,600 3,500 3,400 -19.0 -12.9 Civilian Labor Force, ADOC Unemployment Rate (%) for most recent: Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC Total Mining and Construction Manufacturing 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 -13.6 -23.3 47,000 45,300 45,700 45,600 45,200 -5.2 -1.7 11,000 9,900 9,800 9,700 9,600 -11.1 -7.8 Information 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 5.9 7.6 Financial Activities 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0.0 -1.5 Professional and Business Services 4,500 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,300 -14.0 0.5 Educational and Health Services 6,300 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,100 -4.7 -1.6 Leisure and Hospitality 4,600 4,500 4,600 4,600 4,500 -18.2 -12.5 Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 -5.3 0.5 15,400 15,100 15,500 15,500 15,500 4.7 4.9 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,600 3,600 5.9 2.7 11,900 11,600 12,000 11,900 11,900 4.4 5.6 Sales ($000 ($000s) s), ADOR Gross Retail 175,446 143,029 149,919 154,052 ... -18.1 -6.2 142,966 106,799 113,493 115,515 ... -13.9 -6.3 Restaurants & Bars 18,002 19,631 20,289 20,317 ... -5.7 -0.1 Gasoline, EBR 14,478 16,599 16,137 18,221 15,036 -44.8 -15.2 9,460 9,046 8,064 9,664 8,336 0.9 -6.9 Contracting 45,327 32,549 25,820 36,737 ... 0.9 10.4 Hotel/Motel 3,658 5,116 6,156 5,640 ... -5.5 2.9 60 39 56 42 48 33.3 -14.7 60 39 56 42 48 41.2 -11.8 Retail Gallons (000s) ADOT New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA % change versus year ago DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months U.S. - All Urban 210.2 211.1 212.2 212.7 213.2 -0.7 2.4 U.S. - Wage Earners 204.8 205.7 206.7 207.2 207.9 -1.3 2.4 Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA % change versus year ago I II III IV I for most recent: 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 quarter 4-quarters 216.9 221.2 222.9 217.6 216.8 0.0 2.6 Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers 212.1 216.8 219.3 213.1 212.0 0.0 2.8 U.S. - Urban Wage Earners 207.7 212.9 215.5 208.1 206.5 -0.6 2.8 Gross Domestic Product 121.6 122.0 123.1 123.3 124.2 2.1 2.2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 120.3 121.5 123.0 121.5 121.2 0.8 2.7 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR for most recent: 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 month 12-months 733,141 1,222,323 1,296,706 -20.8 -3.5 Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA % change versus year ago Areas NPS & ASPB Visits to Parks Parks & Other Recreational Recreational Areas, Northern Arizona 756,876 695,217 55,617 59,230 77,131 133,159 144,821 2.0 1.8 Scenic 244,874 236,732 225,170 465,023 489,491 -10.8 -0.8 Water Based Recreation 456,385 399,255 430,840 624,141 662,394 -29.9 -5.9 206,756 290,052 373,890 478,144 364,683 9.0 -3.2 42,806 44,397 55,965 70,644 34,312 -13.7 5.6 149,470 218,727 277,535 344,512 280,921 13.1 -6.2 14,480 26,928 40,390 62,988 49,450 6.3 3.9 1,615,777 1,575,398 1,385,068 1,600,670 1,511,294 -4.2 -8.1 Historical Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP Passengers Pedestrians 862,563 699,950 660,379 716,118 655,806 -32.2 -16.2 Vehicles 687,570 675,536 606,419 676,139 753,838 8.9 -4.8 ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, ADOC: Arizona Department of Commerce The University of Arizona ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board TAA: Tucson Airport Authority BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona U.S. Department of Labor USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of U.S. Department of Homeland Security Commerce