L A S T

A P R I L 2 0 0 9
P R I N T E D I S S U E

Patience is a Virtue
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
March 1, 2009

These are nervous times. The economy is
plunging, and measure after measure
brings more bad news. The “talking heads”
on TV continue doing their sensationalist
best to convince viewers that the Fed’s
rescue efforts are not working (they are,
patience, please). Additionally, statements
from Washington about business conditions
haven’t been particularly reassuring either.
Confidence on the part of both consumers
and business leaders has fallen to record
lows, and fear dominates our collective
psyche. This is typical of recessions. History
tells us that just when everyone
capitulates to the idea that conditions will
never improve, recovery begins. The
recession is nearing its nadir.

As of mid-February, the most recent data available stretches through year end. It paints a pretty
bleak picture, but that is not unexpected. The
economy was in free fall as 2008 came to an end,
and expectations are that the first quarter will be
equally depressing. Six months from now, with
data for the second quarter, we should see clear
evidence that recessionary forces are diminishing.
In the meantime, talk show hosts will sensationalize every negative report and intensify peoples’
fears. There has never been a better time to develop a new hobby and turn off the talking heads.
In late February, Congress passed a $787 billion
fiscal stimulus plan and introduced a $275 billion
program to facilitate modification of home
mortgages. Also, the U.S. Treasury, with Secretary
Geithner now in charge, made significant revisions
to the TARP rescue plan approved last fall,
including changing its name to the Financial
Stability Program (FSP). A key element of FSP is
expansion of the Federal Reserve’s Term AssetBacked Securities Lending Facility (TALF) from a
$200 billion lending limit to $1 trillion. TALF
provides funding to purchase securities backed by
assets such as credit card debt, auto loans, student

loans, and residential and commercial real estate
loans. It is essentially a structured investment
vehicle backed by the Fed! This will significantly
increase the flow of credit to the private sector,
while banks struggle to meet capital adequacy
requirements. These measures, in addition to those
put in place last fall, will contain the damage
currently being wreaked and provide support for
the economy’s recovery. The federal government
and the nation’s central bank have committed
nearly $10 trillion to the rescue. By comparison,
total annual output of the U.S. economy is $14
trillion. This is an unprecedented amount of
stimulus and it will work, given time.
The recession is nearing its nadir during the
current quarter and will loosen its grip as spring
arrives. With luck, and the enormous boost from
the federal government, the economy should be
back on track by year end – maybe sooner. At this
point, patience is a virtue.

Recent Evidence
Recent evidence shows that the recession so far
is similar to the severe recessions of the mid-1970s
continued on Page 2

Dear Readers,

AZ’s High-Tech Industry Drivers ...........3

This issue of Arizona’s Economy will be the last edition published in print and mailed to you.
However, we will continue to offer you Arizona’s Economy Online each quarter with expanded
articles and enhanced access to our award-winning economic forecasts and data at:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/
This electronic version of the magazine also allows you to access our economic analysis and
updates sooner each quarter. The online version is also printable.
We would like to express our gratitude to you, our 10,000+ print subscribers for your interest
in and support of our publication for the past 30 years. If you would like to be notified by e-mail
each quarter when the latest edition becomes available online, please fill out the e-form at:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/ or e-mail ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu with
your contact information.
The popular Arizona Business Leader Confidence Index (BLCI), launched some six years ago in a
partnership with Compass Bank, also will cease with the current (second quarter) survey. We’d
like to thank our panel of over 1,500 for their participation.
Also, we are proud to announce the launch of the EBR Database Online, an online subscription
database providing you with access to extensive current and historical data series describing
Arizona and its communities. Find out more about this exciting new service and subscribe at:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/datacenter/EBR_Database.aspx

Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates:
A History..................................................4

Thank you for your interest in Arizona’s Economy! --Editor

INSIDE:
Mexican Visitors to Arizona ..................2
The Economic Importance of
High-Tech Industry in Arizona..........3
Unemployment Rates ..............................3

Educate or Incarcerate?..........................4
Arizona Economic Indicators.................5

www.eb r.eller.a rizo na.edu

and the early-1980s. Looking at Arizona data
(Exhibit 1), we find that residential building
activity (as measured by building permits) has
fallen to less than 85% of its peak level. That
compares to declines of 74% and 71%,
respectively, during the two earlier periods.
Nonfarm employment is down 5.7% so far,
compared to a 4.5% peak-to-trough decline in the
mid 1970s, and 2.2% in the early 1980s. Inflationadjusted retail sales fell 10.7% in the 1970s
recession and 33.1% in the early-1980s. In the
current recession, sales have fallen 20% so far.
The current recession still has not bottomed out,
and it will no doubt exceed these two earlier
recessions as measured by both depth and
duration. But it will fall far short of the declines
suffered during the great depression.

EXHIBIT 1
Current Recession is Comparable, So Far
Losses in Prior Recessions, Arizona
% change

Arizona Outlook
Arizona has been hit harder than any state, with
the exception of Nevada. Arizona’s economy
entered the recession three months earlier than
the national economy, and will likely emerge later.
Using nonfarm employment as the yardstick, we
expect the bottom to come in the second quarter
of 2010. Some 220,000 jobs will be lost, an
unprecedented decline from peak to trough of
8.2%. That puts the number of jobs back to the
level of early 2005. It is expected to take until the
end of 2012 for employment levels to regain the
peak of 2007Q3.
The lion’s share of losses will be in the construction industry. That industry will lose half of its
workers over a four-and-a-half-year slide from its
2006Q2 peak to the bottom in 2010Q4.
Personal income increased by only 2.7% in
2008, the smallest increase in at least four
decades. We expect aggregate income to decline
by 1.1% this year and grow by only one percent in
2010. In inflation-adjusted terms, 2008-2010 will

bring a three row stretch of declines. In the mid1970s and early 1980s recessions, real income
declined in 1975 and again in 1982.
Declines in retail sales (including restaurants
and bars, food, and gasoline) also have been
unprecedented. This aggregate sales measure fell
4.6% in 2008 and would have been worse were it
not for the 8.2% increase in gasoline sales. With
gasoline prices now half what they were just six
months ago, the aggregate sales measure will fall
by 7.6% in 2009. The following year should see a
nice rebound of 6.5-7.0%, as all components
recover from very depressed levels. For the narrowly-defined retail component, the annual changes
for 2008-2010 are -8.9%, -3.7%, and 7.0%,
respectively.
Arizona’s unemployment rate stood at 6.9% at

Mexican Visitors to Arizona:

the end of 2008. Unemployment is predicted to
peak at 9.5% by year end 2009, and average 8.8%
for all of 2009 and 2010.
Population growth has slowed to the lowest rate
in the past five decades. According to the U.S.
Census Bureau, Arizona’s population grew by 2.3% in
2008. Look for an increase of only 1.4% this year and
1.7% in 2009. In sheer numbers, population increases by 92,000 this year and 110,000 in 2010. The rate
of growth remains below 2.5% through 2015.
This recession will undoubtedly go into the record
books as the longest and most severe since World
War II. Thankfully, actions of the Federal government and the Federal Reserve to boost aggregate
demand and to keep credit markets working will
limit further damage. Patience -- and faith that
conditions will soon improve -- are needed now. n

To view forecast tables, please visit: http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-2008

Soon to be Released
Over 3,000 Mexican visitors to Arizona were interviewed at the six land border
crossings, and at Phoenix Sky Harbor International and Tucson International airports to determined visitor and trip characteristics, destination areas within
Arizona, shopping patterns, sight-seeing activities, and expenditures by category.
This study, the fourth in a series spanning three decades, was prepared for the

Arizona Office of Tourism and authored by Drs. Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and
Alberta H. Charney of the Economic and Business Research Center in the Eller
College of Management.
Following the official release by the Arizona Office of Tourism, the entire
report can be accessed on our website at:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

Six months from now, with data for the second quarter, we should see
clear evidence that recessionary forces are diminishing.
2.

The Economic Importance of High-Tech Industry in Arizona
By William P. Patton, Ph.D.
The importance of the high-tech sector in Arizona cannot be overstated. Hightech industries are major sources of employment and income, provide high-wage
jobs, and support new company spin-offs, as well as, new product development.
Moreover, innovative high-tech industries may be better equipped to compete in
the global market place than traditional industries such as manufacturing. Finally,
a healthy high-tech sector can be an engine of regional economic growth and
development. This article updates and expands on data and analysis provided in
our article “High-Tech Powers Arizona’s Economy,” from the July 2006 issue of
Arizona’s Economy.
In 2007, high tech industries employed 278,700 workers accounting for 11% of
total employment in Arizona. While high-tech accounted for 11% of employment,
high-tech industries contributed $20.3 billion to payrolls, 18% of the total payroll
for all industries in 2007. The average wage for all high-tech industries combined
is 75% higher than the average wage for all industries. Again in 2007, the average
annual wage for high-tech industries was $72,700 vs. $41,600 for all industries.
This positive divergence between employment and payroll shares is even more

pronounced in the high-tech manufacturing sector. High-tech manufacturing
firms tend to be larger than traditional manufacturing firms, with the average
employment in high-tech manufacturing companies being 2.5 times than that
in non-high tech manufacturing firms. In 2007, there were 900 high-tech manufacturing firms in Arizona accounting for 18% of the total number of manufacturing firms and 47% of the employment in the manufacturing sector overall. However, high-tech manufacturing payrolls totaling $6.4 billion were
responsible for a whopping 60% of all manufacturing payrolls and 6% of total
payrolls in the state.
The average annual wage for high-tech manufacturing industries was
$80,100. This is 37% higher than the average annual wage rate for the entire
manufacturing sector, and almost double the average annual wage rate for all
industries in Arizona.
To learn how to identify high-tech firms and what drives growth and change
in this important sector of our state’s economy, read the entire article online at:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

Unemployment Rates –
All Six of Them

Arizona’s High-Tech
Industry Drivers

By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D.

By William P. Patton, Ph.D.

Recently, the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 8.1%. This represents
the portion of the labor force that is looking for a job but is currently unemployed. The definition of the labor force is the sum of employed persons plus
persons looking for work.
Under this definition, if a person has been laid off from a high-paying
manufacturing job and, to make ends meet, is working at a fast food restaurant, they are considered “employed.” If there are substantial numbers of
these “underemployed” persons, then the traditional unemployment rate
substantially underestimates the level of suffering in the economy.
The traditional unemployment rate is actually one of six different unemployment rates (U1-U6) tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The traditional unemployment rate is referred to as U-3.
The unemployment rate U-4, which includes discouraged workers is only
slightly above U-3. There is a bigger increase of almost 2/3rds of a percent
when marginally attached workers are included (U-5). But when persons
working part-time when they would prefer to have full-time employment
are added, the unemployment rate is almost 15 percent (U-6). Since 1994,
when U-4 – U-6 were added, U-6 has been approximately 3.1 – 4.5 percent
higher than U-3. In the most recent month, U-6 was 6.7 percent higher than
U-3.
To learn more about how unemployment rates are defined and how these
rates have tracked historically in Arizona, please visit:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

Arizona’s high-tech industries are a source of jobs, incomes, and high wages.
They also represent industry sectors with strong growth potential and the ability
to compete in the global market.
Given their importance to the state’s economy, the attraction, expansion, and
retention of high-tech industries is a major component of the economic development strategies at the state, regional, and local levels. Economic development
organizations are constantly attempting to finds ways to be more competitive
with other regions in growing high- tech industry clusters.
High-tech firms make their business location decisions based on many of the
same location factors as non-high-tech firms. These factors would include things
like low operating costs (labor, taxes, materials, transportation, etc.), proximity to
major markets, proximity to critical inputs, and so forth.
However, high-tech firms have additional requirements that can be even more
important than the factors above. The most important location factor to high-tech
firms is the availability of a highly educated, highly skilled workforce. They also
value being near major universities and research and development activity. Finally,
since many high-tech firms are startups and spinoffs with new products and services, it is important to have access to venture capital and other sources of early
stage financing.
To find out how Arizona fares in the high-tech location competition go to:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

In 2007, high-tech industries accounted for 11% of total jobs
and 18% of dollar payrolls.
3.

Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates: A History
By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D.
In the recent presidential election, there was a great deal of discussion
about whether or not to raise the highest marginal tax rate for family
incomes (married couples, filing jointly) that are over $250,000/year from
35%, the 2008 rate, to 39.6%, the highest marginal income tax rate during
the 1990s. This article provides an overview of the federal income tax rates
throughout much of the 20th century so this proposed tax increase can be
put into perspective. All of the tax structures compared in this article are for
married couples filing jointly.
When we examine marginal tax rates and brackets in real terms for
taxable years 1987, 1992, 1999, and 2008, we notice that these tax
structures extend back through the four most recent presidents’ terms.
Although there are some differences among them, there are far more
similarities. After all subtractions to income are made, the resulting taxable
income had a starting tax rate of 10 or 15%. By the time taxable income
reaches $55,000-$65,000 (in $2008), the marginal tax rate increases to
between 25% and 28%. From there, the 1987 tax structure increases the

Educate or Incarcerate?

fastest, reaching 35% by the time taxable income reaches $90,000 and
increases to 38.5% at $170,000. The 38.5% marginal rate is the highest
among the tax structures, except for the 1999 tax structure, which taxes
income over $370,000 at 39.6%. The lowest tax bracket for higher income
couples occurred in 1992, when the highest marginal rate of 31% was
reached at approximately $135,000.
The recent income tax proposal would increase the 2008 structure to
39.6% for taxable incomes over $250,000 (not presented on the graph). In
addition, the president’s proposal would cut taxes for at least some families
below this income by $1,000, but this tax reduction would be accomplished
through a tax credit, rather than through changes in marginal tax rates
and/or brackets.
To examine the data, view graphs and history of the income tax structure in
the U.S. from 1913 through the present please visit:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/

Arizona’s General Fund Expenditures: 1979 – 2008

By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D.
Arizona state policymakers have been reducing state government, cutting education funding, and shrinking university funding, as shares of the state economy.
Although volatile, the General Fund of the State of Arizona has been shrinking,
per $1,000 of state personal income, since the early 1990s. The General Fund
declined steadily through fiscal year (FY) 2003, largely due to numerous tax cuts
in the 1990s and a weak economy in the early 2000s. The General Fund then
climbed steeply between 2005 and 2007 but dropped again due to tax cuts and a
weak economy.
General Fund education expenditures have also been in decline relative to
Arizona personal income, as have education expenditures (excluding School
Facilities Board expenditures) as a share of the General Fund itself. In the late
1970s, education comprised almost 70% of the General Fund of the State of
Arizona. In recent years, education was slightly over half of the General Fund.
Universities have fared much worse than even education as a whole. University
expenditures fell from 19% of the General Fund in 1979 to approximately 10% in

recent periods. Despite representing only 10% of the General Fund, some
proposals to solve the current fiscal crises would have universities absorbing
approximately 25% of the budget cuts.
In the late 1970s, universities received $9 for each $1000 of Arizona
personal income and protection and safety got $3. Over time, universities
received less and expenditures on protection and safety grew. With the
proposed budget cuts, universities will fall substantially below protection and
safety, of which 80 – 86% represents the Department of Corrections.
One has to ask whether these budget priorities are what are required for
Arizona and its citizens to compete in the 21st century global economy.
To further explore this important topic and examine the data, please visit:
http://www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/
Arizona expenditure data was obtained from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee website.
Personal income data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

University funding, now only 10% of General fund spending,
will soon be less than spending for corrections.
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADOC
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADOC
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
Passengers
Pedestrians
Vehicles

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2008

OCT
2008

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

3,173.6
2,973.9
199.7
6.0

3,180.7
2,979.3
201.4
6.2

3,169.6
2,969.5
200.1
6.2

3,163.5
2,951.9
211.6
6.4

3,150.7
2,922.9
227.8
7.0

2.1
-0.8
63.2
59.0

3.2
1.1
53.5
47.2

2,604.1
2160.3
443.8
55.1
388.7
208.6
39.9

2,600.0
2152.8
447.2
55.1
392.1
212.1
39.8

2,580.9
2131.9
449.0
55.1
393.9
214.6
39.7

2,561.3
2115.0
446.3
55.3
391.0
212.7
40.5

2,486.9
2053.2
433.7
54.8
378.9
201.5
41.2

-5.9
-7.3
1.4
4.6
0.9
2.6
1.2

-2.7
-3.7
2.7
4.2
2.5
3.2
-1.3

18.82
16.53
15.08
12.61
19.97

19.15
16.37
15.13
12.57
19.94

19.30
16.23
15.21
12.66
20.11

19.70
16.47
15.12
12.32
20.71

19.30
17.11
15.39
12.98
21.28

2.2
6.1
5.4
7.2
10.3

5.7
4.4
2.6
3.2
3.1

6,279,506
3,869,885
968,299
718,500
722,822
214,768
932,773
232,446
70,296
316,927
1,464,964
136,117
165,624

5,984,648
3,581,724
1,006,111
749,313
647,500
224,616
809,568
253,749
66,729
322,899
1,422,550
75,558
188,212

5,992,266
3,775,136
1,016,618
748,783
451,729
218,163
623,205
260,197
86,056
280,779
1,253,904
30,127
173,706

6,959,559
4,840,478
1,015,725
754,089
349,267
228,204
641,237
247,542
76,916
290,014
1,360,692
13,586
148,818

...
...
...
...
408,765
222,773
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-13.3
-13.8
3.8
1.3
-37.2
-2.1
1.2
-19.2
-12.5
-13.4
-18.9
-85.0
-5.9

-5.1
-9.6
5.0
-2.5
4.3
-4.7
5.9
-6.2
1.3
-2.7
-17.5
-8.0
-4.6

1,825
1,133
26
666

1,300
877
33
391

1,022
616
122
284

795
723
4
68

760
574
14
172

-72.2
-62.9
-73.6
-84.8

-50.8
-51.6
-56.7
-47.0

1,881
1,509
37
335

3,119
2,723
52
343

1,741
1,369
36
335

1,874
1,536
41
297

1,713
1,364
37
312

77.1
91.8
37.0
36.2

90.9
102.6
63.6
53.2

1,671,947
120,200
629,344
922,403
119,939
20,254
71,839
27,846

1,401,274
133,558
505,437
762,279
177,858
28,889
116,801
32,168

992,525
82,750
322,538
587,237
231,305
31,446
173,342
26,517

756,876
55,617
244,874
456,385
206,756
42,806
149,470
14,480

695,218
59,230
236,733
399,255
291,479
44,397
220,154
26,928

2.6
12.1
10.1
-2.5
21.4
2.1
24.6
34.6

0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.2
6.7
7.6
7.9
0.1

1,518,477
861,830
640,723

1,469,488
810,400
637,448

1,483,744
730,379
639,556

1,615,561
862,563
687,570

1,575,398
699,950
675,536

-4.5
-14.7
-4.8

-2.7
-14.9
-5.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 8. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to EBR Database Online.
www.ebr.eller.arizo na.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements
TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements
6.

SEP
2008

OCT
2008

2,136.8
2,016.7
120.1
5.6

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

2,145.7
2,023.7
122.0
5.7

2,141.8
2,019.2
122.6
5.9

2,136.4
2,004.5
131.9
6.4

2,123.1
1,980.9
142.2
6.1

1.2
-1.6
67.5
64.9

2.7
0.8
58.1
54.5

1,857.3
1,606.5
250.8
22.8
228.0
120.7

1,856.0
1,603.1
252.9
22.9
230.0
122.1

1,841.7
1,587.7
254.0
22.7
231.3
123.7

1,826.1
1,573.5
252.6
22.8
229.8
123.2

1,770.3
1,525.3
245.0
22.7
222.3
116.5

-6.7
-7.4
-1.7
5.1
-2.3
-2.8

-3.0
-3.8
2.0
5.1
1.7
1.8

4,294,422
2,698,354
636,593
494,363
465,113
1,017,853
89,714

4,064,909
2,460,903
661,452
521,543
421,011
990,979
113,346

4,079,062
2,593,629
668,360
525,497
291,577
846,641
111,036

4,785,852
3,367,158
667,772
530,291
220,631
940,964
92,177

...
...
...
...
259,629
...
...

-13.5
-14.4
3.3
3.4
-38.2
-23.6
-11.5

-6.4
-11.1
4.5
-2.8
4.4
-20.6
-4.9

1,384
703
19
662

968
559
26
384

579
369
2
208

441
426
2
12

539
361
12
166

-71.9
-65.8
-75.6
-79.6

-53.7
-55.1
-65.2
-48.7

1,354,579
6,179
219,223

1,143,223
5,384
212,337

904,707
4,417
204,824

1,065,102
5,524
192,813

854,270
4,736
180,378

-6.2
62.9
-42.4

-16.8
16.2
-27.2

2,861,437
37,843

3,165,766
39,434

2,965,180
37,716

3,171,614
39,119

2,999,552
39,237

-9.7
-13.6

-6.1
-7.8

489.3
461.2
28.1
5.7

490.3
461.9
28.4
5.7

487.8
459.8
28.0
5.9

489.0
459.0
30.0
6.3

488.2
456.4
31.8
6.0

5.7
3.4
53.6
46.3

4.6
2.9
50.2
43.4

382.5
299.3
83.2
11.2
72.0
44.8

381.6
297.7
83.9
11.4
72.5
45.9

379.1
294.7
84.4
11.5
72.9
46.3

377.5
293.4
84.1
11.4
72.7
46.2

367.9
286.9
81.0
11.4
69.6
43.2

-2.6
-5.2
7.9
6.5
8.1
14.3

-1.2
-2.6
4.4
6.0
4.1
5.0

904,011
548,413
148,814
109,900
96,883
196,265
19,782

875,929
513,121
154,626
121,889
86,294
199,342
26,308

881,638
550,518
156,240
114,702
60,178
164,516
26,714

1,040,292
720,134
156,103
115,777
48,278
181,690
21,750

...
...
...
...
56,515
...
...

-12.0
-12.6
4.1
0.1
-33.8
-6.8
9.3

-3.9
-8.1
5.3
-2.3
6.3
-10.1
-14.8

229
212
17

153
138
15

105
96
10

107
99
8

107
99
8

-77.8
-47.1
-97.3

-50.0
-48.2
-60.6

203,049
964
210,631

186,356
846
220,279

137,104
645
212,565

155,043
777
199,540

122,382
588
208,133

-25.7
-5.3
-21.5

-28.3
-16.0
-14.8

287,577
15,643

334,055
15,834

304,044
14,760

317,531
15,032

288,675
17,771

-18.5
-18.9

-6.1
-15.9

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2008

OCT
2008

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

22,050
19,625
2,425
11.0

22,000
19,425
2,575
11.7

21,825
19,275
2,550
11.7

21,875
19,200
2,675
12.2

22,050
19,150
2,900
13.2

7.4
3.1
48.7
38.4

7.6
5.2
33.1
23.2

20,625
7,225
13,400
3,300
10,100

20,350
7,125
13,225
3,225
10,000

20,125
6,975
13,150
3,225
9,925

19,975
6,800
13,175
3,300
9,875

19,500
6,425
13,075
3,250
9,825

-1.6
-8.9
2.3
-0.8
3.4

2.1
1.0
2.7
1.3
3.2

16,992
11,026
1,758

15,981
14,693
1,180

11,770
8,668
814

12,102
7,775
902

...
...
...

-61.7
-5.7
-4.7

10.2
27.6
18.4

61,325
57,825
3,500
5.7

61,025
57,525
3,500
5.7

60,900
57,400
3,500
5.7

61,075
57,325
3,750
6.1

61,425
57,500
3,925
6.4

4.1
2.4
35.3
30.1

5.7
4.3
39.1
31.5

38,025
25,400
12,625
4,925
7,700

37,850
25,125
12,725
5,050
7,675

37,800
25,075
12,725
5,050
7,675

37,600
24,875
12,725
5,075
7,650

36,975
24,400
12,575
5,050
7,525

-2.4
-6.1
5.7
5.2
6.0

0.7
-0.4
3.1
4.3
2.3

86,930
30,583
3,318

78,483
23,781
3,783

79,168
29,185
3,184

97,749
25,203
4,819

...
...
...

-11.3
-0.4
76.9

0.1
-13.2
4.8

25
25

25
25

13
13

24
24

8
8

-65.2
-65.2

-38.4
-38.4

74,300
70,300
4,000
5.4

74,600
70,600
4,000
5.4

74,600
70,300
4,300
5.8

74,300
69,600
4,700
6.3

74,800
69,600
5,200
7.0

6.6
4.3
48.6
39.4

4.7
3.1
47.2
40.2

64,400
43,500
20,900
3,100
17,800

64,800
43,100
21,700
2,900
18,800

64,300
42,600
21,700
2,800
18,900

63,400
42,200
21,200
2,800
18,400

62,300
41,000
21,300
2,700
18,600

-1.1
-5.7
9.2
0.0
10.7

-0.6
-3.1
4.9
0.3
5.7

146,291
41,131
27,434

129,456
35,369
21,027

110,242
33,930
11,725

126,353
31,480
13,045

...
...
...

-11.1
-12.9
7.6

-1.4
-5.0
7.0

18
18

15
15

26
26

19
19

5
5

-82.8
-82.8

-41.0
-43.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 8. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to EBR Database Online.
www.eb r.eller.arizo na.ed u

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel (Includes Graham County data.)

ADOC: Arizona Department of Commerce
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2008

OCT
2008

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

22,400
20,900
1,500
6.7

22,125
20,575
1,550
7.0

22,000
20,450
1,550
7.0

22,150
20,425
1,725
7.8

22,075
20,100
1,975
8.9

2.2
-2.0
79.5
75.7

5.3
3.2
50.6
43.0

14,425
9,575
4,850
525
4,325

14,225
9,400
4,825
475
4,350

14,125
9,300
4,825
475
4,350

14,075
9,250
4,825
450
4,375

13,550
8,825
4,725
450
4,275

-7.0
-8.1
-5.0
5.9
-6.0

-0.1
-0.6
0.7
0.9
0.7

36,641
9,623
1,012

32,798
8,423
1,195

29,949
10,892
954

32,983
8,627
752

...
...
...

-15.3
5.5
-14.1

-2.6
-5.0
-28.6

16,625
15,550
1,075
6.5

16,575
15,525
1,050
6.3

16,275
15,075
1,200
7.4

16,475
15,025
1,450
8.8

16,250
14,575
1,675
10.3

3.7
-1.5
91.4
84.7

13.2
10.3
76.2
56.0

8,900
6,075
2,825
425
2,400

8,850
5,950
2,900
425
2,475

8,850
5,950
2,900
425
2,475

8,775
5,875
2,900
425
2,475

8,400
5,650
2,750
400
2,350

-6.7
-9.6
0.0
0.0
0.0

5.1
6.8
1.6
2.1
1.6

24,995
5,954

23,827
6,884

19,513
7,316

23,503
4,834

...
...

-23.3
-16.5

-4.4
41.4

4,600
4,400
200
4.3

4,600
4,400
200
4.3

4,550
4,250
300
6.6

4,650
4,250
400
8.6

4,625
4,125
500
10.8

6.3
-1.2
185.7
168.7

9.7
7.3
81.3
64.5

5,575
5,000
575
25
550

5,625
5,075
550
25
525

5,125
4,550
575
25
550

5,100
4,525
575
25
550

4,775
4,200
575
25
550

-5.0
-6.7
9.5
0.0
10.0

9.1
9.9
2.3
-11.8
3.3

9,660
6,429
916

18,543
5,445
712

30,471
4,177
682

11,976
6,835
379

...
...
...

-60.0
15.5
-29.4

45.8
-22.6
-5.4

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2008

OCT
2008

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

7,500
6,850
650
8.7

7,475
6,850
625
8.4

7,450
6,875
575
7.7

7,550
6,950
600
7.9

7,625
6,975
650
8.5

-3.5
-6.1
36.8
41.8

-1.9
-4.0
38.2
41.0

4,900
2,475
2,425
325
2,100

5,000
2,525
2,475
325
2,150

5,000
2,525
2,475
325
2,150

5,025
2,525
2,500
325
2,175

4,925
2,475
2,450
325
2,125

-7.5
-10.0
-4.9
0.0
-5.6

-6.0
-7.4
-4.5
2.6
-5.5

15,361
2,761
349

17,559
2,671
361

15,742
1,280
385

18,798
2,518
431

...
...
...

-18.4
-42.1
-4.8

0.8
-1.9
-9.4

93,200
86,000
7,200
7.7

93,200
85,700
7,500
8.0

93,300
85,600
7,700
8.3

93,300
85,300
8,000
8.6

93,900
84,900
9,000
9.6

2.4
-1.4
60.7
56.9

1.5
-1.3
56.1
53.9

50,100
41,200
8,900
500
8,400

49,800
41,000
8,800
500
8,300

49,500
40,600
8,900
500
8,400

49,100
40,400
8,700
500
8,200

47,800
39,400
8,400
500
7,900

-7.2
-8.4
-1.2
0.0
-1.3

-5.6
-7.1
2.8
0.0
2.9

136,290
35,503
3,640

125,917
26,855
2,960

136,964
31,094
2,885

147,642
31,635
2,330

...
...
...

-11.7
-9.0
-18.5

-6.6
-18.3
-9.2

42
42

46
46

18
18

17
17

17
17

-32.0
-32.0

-50.5
-56.7

39,900
35,975
3,925
9.8

39,700
35,575
4,125
10.4

38,950
34,775
4,175
10.7

39,225
34,725
4,500
11.5

39,625
34,450
5,175
13.1

3.7
-2.1
69.7
63.7

2.9
-0.6
53.5
49.0

28,875
18,375
10,500
1,725
8,775

28,525
18,000
10,525
1,650
8,875

27,825
17,700
10,125
1,650
8,475

27,675
17,400
10,275
1,675
8,600

26,925
16,775
10,150
1,600
8,550

-7.1
-9.4
-2.9
0.0
-3.4

-4.4
-6.2
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1

98,645
17,814
3,433

89,330
17,307
2,999

76,779
15,855
2,115

81,955
11,667
2,039

...
...
...

-14.4
-55.8
-5.7

6.5
-29.6
18.8

20
20

12
12

7
7

14
14

5
5

-66.7
-66.7

-41.7
-40.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 8. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to EBR Database Online.
www.ebr.eller.a rizo na.ed u

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADOC
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADOC
Total
Total Private
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

OCT
2008

NOV
2008

DEC
2008

JAN
2009

18,850
16,300
2,550
13.5

18,700
16,100
2,600
13.9

18,375
16,200
2,175
11.8

18,250
16,125
2,125
11.6

18,350
16,300
2,050
11.2

2.8
-1.7
60.8
56.4

4.4
1.0
47.0
40.1

13,825
9,950
3,875
1,500
2,375

13,700
9,800
3,900
1,500
2,400

13,800
9,850
3,950
1,525
2,425

13,650
9,700
3,950
1,550
2,400

13,575
9,600
3,975
1,550
2,425

-6.9
-11.7
7.4
10.7
5.4

-2.7
-5.1
4.4
7.0
2.7

32,566
13,941
924

29,914
4,668
1,146

36,779
9,340
1,027

48,469
16,316
1,078

...
...
...

-21.4
77.1
-16.6

-10.2
20.1
5.4

9
9

9
9

7
7

8
8

6
6

-70.0
-70.0

-56.9
-56.5

99,400
93,000
6,400
6.4

99,300
92,800
6,500
6.5

98,200
91,600
6,600
6.7

97,800
90,700
7,100
7.3

98,100
89,900
8,200
8.4

1.3
-2.5
78.3
75.9

0.1
-2.2
59.4
59.2

60,400
47,700
12,700
1,400
11,300

60,500
47,700
12,800
1,400
11,400

59,700
46,800
12,900
1,500
11,400

58,900
46,400
12,500
1,400
11,100

57,000
45,000
12,000
1,400
10,600

-8.5
-11.4
4.3
16.7
2.9

-6.2
-7.7
0.5
8.1
-0.4

155,067
43,174
9,029

149,455
52,024
9,634

144,088
38,369
7,287

164,590
45,821
5,458

...
...
...

-16.0
0.0
-20.7

-7.1
-11.5
-5.2

37
37

33
31

94
21

73
27

25
25

-69.1
-61.5

-45.9
-57.3

87,300
69,200
18,100
20.7

85,300
68,500
16,800
19.7

83,700
68,700
15,000
17.9

81,300
68,800
12,500
15.4

80,500
68,100
12,400
15.4

-1.3
-6.8
45.9
47.9

5.9
1.4
33.7
25.5

52,800
37,200
15,600
3,500
12,100

52,900
37,400
15,500
3,500
12,000

52,800
37,200
15,600
3,500
12,100

52,600
37,200
15,400
3,500
11,900

51,100
36,000
15,100
3,500
11,600

-8.9
-13.7
4.9
2.9
5.5

-0.8
-2.7
4.2
5.0
4.0

138,743
32,906
4,315

142,521
34,109
3,562

148,081
52,642
4,897

175,446
45,327
3,658

...
...
...

-13.7
11.7
14.9

-0.2
8.3
3.7

40
40

25
25

30
30

60
60

39
39

-26.4
-26.4

-19.1
-17.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 8. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to EBR Database Online.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2007

I
2008

II
2008

III
2008

IV
2008

214.5
209.7
205.3

216.9
212.1
207.7

221.2
216.8
212.9

222.9
219.3
215.5

217.6
213.1
208.1

1.4
1.6
1.3

3.5
3.8
4.1

120.8
119.2

121.6
120.3

122.0
121.5

123.1
123.0

123.3
121.5

2.0
1.9

2.2
3.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 8. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to EBR Database Online.

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PERMIT NO. 190