O C T O B E R

Still Looking
for the Bottom
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 2008

Recession continues to grip Arizona and
several more months are likely to pass
before the economy bottoms and then
begins to recover. By the middle of 2009,
housing markets should bottom, credit will
once again be expanding, and consumers
will begin to release some pent-up
demand. The business cycle will turn up
and by mid-2010, robust growth will
return once again. In our annual update of
the long-term forecast, we find abundant
growth in Arizona’s future. Some 15
million people will call Arizona home in
the year 2040, which may boost the state
into the top five most populous.

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

Recent evidence shows that Arizona’s economy
continued to contract in the second quarter with
little prospect for recovery in the near term. The
financial crisis continues to deepen, housing
markets continue to swoon, consumers are in full
retreat, jobs are disappearing, inflation is
accelerating, and wages are stagnating.
Nonresidential construction, which provided
support earlier as housing collapsed, is now headed
downward as well vis-à-vis rising vacancies and
restrictive credit. State and local governments are
struggling to balance budgets, which are heavily
reliant on sales taxes.
Exports have been a bright spot, but its effects are
too small to offset losses in the broader economy. So
too with the copper mining industry, which has added
jobs at double-digit annual rates in the past two
years, but the numbers of jobs total less than a few
thousand. In the manufacturing industry, increased
exports have not added to payrolls. In fact, manufacturing employment has fallen by nearly 10,000 jobs
statewide over the past two years. Meanwhile, over
50,000 construction jobs have been lost.
Consumer sentiment recently plunged to recession levels because of job losses, falling wealth
from lower home prices and stock market losses,
much tighter credit availability, and high food and
energy prices. Consumers have trimmed spending
to levels the likes of which haven’t been seen since
the 1981-82 recession. At mid year, retail sales
statewide were declining at a 5.5% annual rate
and were down 7.6% from the February 2007 peak.
In inflation-adjusted terms, the declines are in
excess of 10 percent. The largest declines during
the past year have been in auto sales (down 24%)
and furniture stores (down 10%).
On a positive note, home sales and residential
construction show signs of stabilizing. After seasonal adjustment, residential building permits
statewide have held steady near a 30,000 annual
pace (of which 22,000 are single family). This represents a decline of 70% from peak activity in
October 2005, on par with the declines experienced in the mid-1970s and early-1980s recessions. Clearly, the lion’s share of this correction is
now behind us. Home sales have stabilized in
metro Tucson but have actually moved up in metro
Phoenix in recent months! Some 40-50% of sales
Co n ti n u e d o n P a ge 2
www.eb r.eller .ar izona.e du

2 0 0 8

•

F A L L

I S S U E

Arizona Bankruptcies
on the Rise
By Lora Mwaniki-Lyman
Research Economist and Data Manager
According to the most recent monthly District of
Arizona bankruptcy report for August, 1,747 total
filings were reported in Arizona, 80.9% of which
were Chapter 7 (liquidation) filings. The 11,532
bankruptcy cases filed in Arizona between January
and August of 2008 already surpass the 6,528
bankruptcies filed for the same period in 2007, and
are 962 cases more than the total bankruptcy cases
filed the whole of 2007.
The Phoenix Bankruptcy Court lead Arizona’s
other two Bankruptcy Courts, Tucson and Yuma, in
bankruptcy filings reported. 1,303 bankruptcy cases
were filed in Phoenix, 352 in Tucson and 92 in
Yuma for the month of August. Phoenix reported
the largest annual increase in August of 88.3%,
followed by Yuma and Tucson at 39.4% and 33.8%
respectively. Chapter 7 filings in Phoenix increased
by 98.1% for the same period.
Phoenix is one of the metro areas in the United
States that has been hardest hit by the housing
crisis. The Phoenix metro area was ranked seventh
in foreclosures for the second quarter of 2008 with
one in every 51 households facing foreclosure,
according to RealtyTrac Inc., which publishes the
largest and most comprehensive database of
properties in foreclosure and bank repossessions
(Source: www.realtytrac.com accessed 9/2/08.)
In addition, July data released in August by
Standard & Poor’s reported Phoenix as having the
third largest annual decline in prices of existing
single family homes among the 20 metro areas
tracked using the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Indices. Phoenix metro area home prices declined
by 27.9% compared to Las Vegas (28.6%) and
Miami (28.3%).
We should expect bankruptcy cases filed in
Arizona to peak as the housing market
improves and the economy picks up. Go to
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/
for more on bankruptcies and the
State of Arizona.

are repossessed houses, which continue to flood
the market, but they are being sold to investors
willing to take the long view.
Inventories of for-sale homes are also
dropping in both markets, and the number of
months’ supply has dropped to around 10. The
norm is four to six. The excess supply continues
to put downward pressure on housing prices,

although it’s hard to measure the impact. Two
”repeat sales” indices for metro Phoenix show
widely disparate results: Standard and Poor’s
Case-Shiller index has fallen some 32.6% over
the past two years (data through June) while the
OFHEO measure is down only 12% from its
fourth quarter 2006 peak. It’s important to
realize that both are simply small samples of the

EXHIBIT 1
Projections to 2040, Arizona
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

2000
5,166
2,243
133
54

2010
6,880
2,620
230
90

2020
9,110
3,770
480
160

EXHIBIT 2
30-Year Slide Will Stabilize
Per Capita Personal Income
percent

Arizona as a % of U.S.

2030
11,810
5,020
900
270

2040
14,960
6,350
1,580
430

existing housing stock and each measures a
different market segment. Neither is
representative of housing prices in your
neighborhood and prices vary significantly from
neighborhood to neighborhood.
The overall economy won’t launch much of a
recovery until credit markets loosen and construction
activity moves up. The best bet is the end of this year
at the earliest and most likely the middle of 2009.
That will set the stage for the next expansion which
should carry through the middle of the next decade.
See the table on page 4 for a summary of the near
term forecast.

The Long-Term Outlook
Official estimates from the U.S. Census
Bureau show that Arizona was the 16th largest
state as of July 1, 2007, with a population of
6.4 million. Indiana’s population count was
greater by only 6,500. The addition of an
estimated 135,000 during the past year vaults
Arizona past Indiana, Massachusetts, and
Washington into the 13th spot.
During the first seven years of this decade,
Arizona’s population grew by 22.7% (according to
Census Bureau estimates). The addition of nearly
1.2 million residents accounts for fully 6% of the
nation-wide gain. Only Texas, California, Florida,
and Georgia added more people.
Arizona’s growth is expected to continue at a
rapid pace. In an annual update of our 30-year
projections, we show Arizona’s population reaching 14.9 million in the year 2040. That’s eightand-a-half million more people than currently call
Arizona home. In short, Arizona’s population is
expected to more than double in the next 30
years, and Arizona may well become the fifth
largest state in the U.S., trailing only California,
Texas, New York, and Florida.
Census Bureau projections show Arizona at 10.7
million in 2030. Our number is one million higher
at 11.8 million.

Home sales and residential construction show signs of stabilizing.
Clearly, the lion’s share of this correction is now behind us.
2.

Projections for each 10-year interval for
selected aggregate measures are presented in
Exhibit 1. Highlights of the 30-year forecast
include the following:
• The number of jobs in Arizona will more than
double over the next 32 years as 3.7 million
new jobs will be created, boosting the total to
6.3 million.
• Arizona’s employment to population ratio will
remain below its peak established in 2000
(43.4%) and after dipping to near 38% in 2010,
finishes in 2040 at 42.5%. Arizona’s ratio consistently runs about 3-4 points lower than
nationwide.
• Per capita personal income relative to the
nation continues its downward slide from 85%
today to nearly 80% 30 years from now. This
ratio peaked at 96% in 1981 and will dip below
78% during this recession (Exhibit 2).
• As the population continues to age, an increasing share of personal income will come from
transfer payments, of which social security is
the largest component. The share will rise from
17% today to 23.4% by 2040. Per capita transfers in Arizona however remain steady at 90%
of the corresponding nationwide measure, so
Arizona is mirroring national trends.
• Retail sales relative to income will continue to
fall, dropping to less than 20% from over 40%
in the mid-1960s. An aging population that
spends more on services (especially health care)
and a smaller portion on goods accounts for the
drop.
• Migration flows will continue to account for
most of population growth. On average, natural
increase (births minus deaths) accounts for onethird while net migration provides the
remainder. The latter varies significantly, of
course, over the business cycle.
• The annual number of net migrants continues
its upward trend to reach nearly 230,000 per

year in 2040, compared to 180,000 in 2005. As
a percent of the standing population, net
migration falls from 3% in 2005 to 1.5% in
2040 (Exhibit 3).
• Construction, manufacturing, and government
will represent smaller shares of total jobs 30
years from now. Construction’s share will
decline from 9% to 5%, manufacturing from
7% to 3.5%, and government from 15.5% to
12.3%.
• The two sectors that gain the largest shares are
health care and social assistance (from 9% to
13.3%) and professional and business services
(from 14% to 19%).
• In our “high” scenario, Arizona’s population
reaches 16 million in 2040. In the “low” scenario, it is 13.7 million, compared to 14.9 million in the “most likely” scenario.
• The range for 2040 metro Phoenix population is

9.5 to 12.7 million. Metro Tucson’s range is 1.6
to 2.0 million people. The megapolitan population (both metros — three counties combined)
ranges from 11.1 to 14.7 million.
Arizona has been the second-fastest growing
state over the past several decades, and is expected to continue riding the crest for at least the
next few decades. Over the next 30 years, Arizona
will more than double in size. We can only guess
what Arizona will be like, but it’s clear that a
great deal of change lies ahead. Much remains to
be determined. Will Arizona be a leader in the
industries of the future, or become an economic
backwater? Politically, will it remain a red state or
shift to blue? Will Arizona still be the low cost
leader? Will it become an exclusive place to live or
be the Ellis Island of the Southwest? Only time
will tell. ■

EXHIBIT 3
Migration Overshadows Natural Increase
Components of Population
000s

Annual Change, Arizona

Arizona’s economy won’t launch much of a recovery until
credit markets loosen and construction activity moves up.
3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2007
208,613.9
5.9
43,259
3.8
82,712.1
2.3
6,500.2
3.1
48,456
-25.6
2,673.1
1.5
417.6
-4.2
2,255.6
2.6
527.5
3.0
403.5
2.3
271.4
1.8
422.7
3.5

2008
216,860.5
4.0
44,841
3.7
83,816.6
1.3
6,637.1
2.1
30,146
-37.8
2,658.1
-0.6
384.0
-8.1
2,274.1
0.8
525.4
-0.4
403.4
0.0
270.7
-0.3
431.0
2.0

2009
219,433.8
1.2
46,047
2.7
85,856.9
2.4
6,749.9
1.7
28,124
-6.7
2,602.6
-2.1
343.7
-10.5
2,259.0
-0.7
507.5
-3.4
392.7
-2.7
269.1
-0.6
432.7
0.4

2010
229,275.9
4.5
47,419
3.0
86,564.4
0.8
6,878.4
1.9
39,214
39.4
2,619.8
0.7
328.3
-4.5
2,291.6
1.4
511.9
0.9
392.4
-0.1
278.0
3.3
434.4
0.4

2011
246,400.1
7.5
49,090
3.5
91,510.8
5.7
7,053.7
2.5
58,725
49.8
2,713.6
3.6
338.8
3.2
2,375.0
3.6
535.4
4.6
407.3
3.8
291.9
5.0
439.8
1.2

2012
269,459.9
9.4
51,113
4.1
98,869.0
8.0
7,263.1
3.0
70,553
20.1
2,854.6
5.2
363.8
7.4
2,491.0
4.9
566.3
5.8
433.2
6.4
305.9
4.8
449.2
2.1

2013
294,215.0
9.2
53,236
4.2
106,453.7
7.7
7,489.8
3.1
76,572
8.5
2,999.1
5.1
390.4
7.3
2,609.0
4.7
595.7
5.2
461.2
6.5
317.9
3.9
459.5
2.3

146,276.6
5.6
49,592
4.3
57,312.7
1.7
4,235.2
3.5
37,272
-15.8
1,912.6
1.5
308.1
-4.5
1,604.7
2.8
389.6
2.6
328.5
2.9
185.5
2.8
239.2
4.4

152,369.2
4.2
51,708
4.3
57,343.2
0.1
4,331.9
2.3
24,076
-35.4
1,898.8
-0.7
279.8
-9.2
1,619.1
0.9
388.9
-0.2
327.2
-0.4
186.5
0.5
243.4
1.7

156,637.7
2.8
53,550
3.6
58,957.9
2.8
4,422.0
2.1
21,584
-10.4
1,882.8
-0.8
263.6
-5.8
1,619.3
0.0
380.2
-2.3
325.2
-0.6
186.2
-0.2
245.1
0.7

165,000.5
5.3
55,537
3.7
60,627.3
2.8
4,528.8
2.4
30,898
43.2
1,905.1
1.2
254.5
-3.4
1,650.6
1.9
386.9
1.8
326.7
0.5
192.8
3.6
247.4
0.9

178,834.9
8.4
57,686
3.9
65,092.8
7.4
4,670.2
3.1
46,916
51.8
1,985.8
4.2
266.0
4.5
1,719.8
4.2
408.4
5.6
338.0
3.5
203.1
5.3
252.8
2.2

196,203.8
9.7
59,985
4.0
70,766.4
8.7
4,836.6
3.6
59,319
26.4
2,099.6
5.7
290.2
9.1
1,809.4
5.2
434.0
6.3
356.4
5.4
213.3
5.0
260.6
3.1

214,214.6
9.2
62,281
3.8
75,794.0
7.1
5,015.6
3.7
67,054
13.0
2,213.8
5.4
317.9
9.6
1,895.9
4.8
456.3
5.1
373.6
4.8
222.2
4.2
268.8
3.1

31,710.3
6.4
41,655
4.8
11,960.2
2.4
1,003.2
2.2
5,237
-38.5
383.9
1.1
55.4
-3.9
328.5
2.0
64.1
2.3
52.1
4.7
40.2
-0.9
77.9
2.2

33,195.0
4.7
43,225
3.8
12,120.9
1.3
1,018.6
1.5
3,970
-24.2
380.7
-0.8
53.0
-4.3
327.7
-0.2
64.7
0.9
51.7
-0.8
39.5
-1.7
78.8
1.1

34,202.4
3.0
44,462
2.9
12,531.5
3.4
1,035.1
1.6
4,381
10.4
377.6
-0.8
50.7
-4.3
326.9
-0.2
64.0
-1.0
51.1
-1.1
39.2
-0.9
77.9
-1.2

36,225.7
5.9
45,733
2.9
12,983.9
3.6
1,056.8
2.1
6,485
48.0
384.2
1.7
51.1
0.7
333.2
1.9
65.6
2.5
50.6
-1.0
40.9
4.3
78.6
1.0

39,012.0
7.7
47,220
3.3
13,733.3
5.8
1,082.7
2.4
8,206
26.5
398.1
3.6
54.0
5.8
344.1
3.3
68.1
3.8
52.0
2.8
43.1
5.4
79.8
1.5

42,035.0
7.7
49,007
3.8
14,634.9
6.6
1,110.1
2.5
9,035
10.1
412.9
3.7
56.7
4.9
356.2
3.5
70.6
3.6
54.6
4.9
45.0
4.5
81.0
1.4

44,855.7
6.7
50,900
3.9
15,430.6
5.4
1,136.0
2.3
8,839
-2.2
424.2
2.7
57.7
1.8
366.5
2.9
72.5
2.6
57.1
4.6
46.4
3.1
81.6
0.8

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

20,125
18,475
1,650
8.2

19,950
18,525
1,425
7.1

19,975
18,475
1,500
7.5

20,775
18,600
2,175
10.5

20,825
18,475
2,350
11.3

4.0
3.2
10.6
6.3

0.4
0.8
-3.6
-4.1

19,950
6,975
775
19,175
1,725
4,475
12,975
3,275
9,700

19,950
6,975
800
19,150
1,700
4,475
12,975
3,275
9,700

19,875
7,050
825
19,050
1,700
4,525
12,825
3,350
9,475

19,550
7,025
875
18,675
1,675
4,475
12,525
3,350
9,175

19,100
6,750
825
18,275
1,675
4,250
12,350
3,125
9,225

0.3
-6.9
3.1
0.1
-10.7
-7.1
4.7
2.5
5.4

-1.5
-2.9
4.4
-1.7
-13.5
0.6
-0.6
0.4
-1.0

26,209
18,153
787
7,268
2,285
4,683
934

15,621
7,239
700
7,681
2,328
11,637
744

16,362
6,649
840
8,873
2,501
8,483
1,210

19,251
8,364
1,685
9,201
2,228
10,614
3,283

...
...
...
9,385
2,372
...
...

31.2
15.8
43.8
40.3
-4.1
14.4
133.2

33.2
52.7
3.6
20.4
-1.5
12.3
11.7

38,500
35,825
2,675
6.9

38,350
36,025
2,325
6.1

38,950
36,450
2,500
6.4

40,025
36,675
3,350
8.4

40,275
36,675
3,600
8.9

3.8
1.8
29.7
25.0

1.6
1.1
9.5
7.7

29,975
19,000
3,425
2,625
800
26,550
5,825
825
600
1,250
3,575
2,850
650
10,975
1,650
9,325

30,025
18,950
3,425
2,625
800
26,600
5,750
800
600
1,250
3,525
2,950
650
11,075
1,725
9,350

30,375
19,200
3,425
2,650
775
26,950
5,800
800
625
1,225
3,525
3,175
625
11,175
1,775
9,400

29,875
19,200
3,425
2,650
775
26,450
5,800
825
575
1,250
3,400
3,250
675
10,675
1,800
8,875

29,350
18,775
3,350
2,600
750
26,000
5,850
800
550
1,250
3,125
3,200
650
10,575
1,650
8,925

-1.3
-6.6
-10.7
-10.3
-11.8
0.0
-4.5
-3.0
-12.0
-7.4
-4.6
-7.9
-3.7
9.6
0.0
11.6

-0.8
-3.0
-9.3
-8.8
-11.0
0.5
-0.4
1.3
-5.7
-4.1
3.6
-2.2
-22.1
3.4
2.1
3.7

90,958
67,508
7,469
15,980
5,025
17,971
3,194

91,060
68,475
7,033
15,552
4,713
18,849
3,162

126,706
99,195
8,458
19,053
5,370
18,542
2,540

111,360
80,816
9,622
20,922
5,065
14,174
6,713

...
...
...
22,722
5,742
...
...

14.3
11.4
5.7
45.7
-0.3
-50.2
92.0

6.5
5.0
0.8
21.7
-0.3
1.6
11.7

21
21

38
38

28
28

23
23

24
24

-38.5
-31.4

-37.7
-35.5

* As reported by ADOR
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

15,200
14,450
750
4.9

15,275
14,600
675
4.4

15,425
14,675
750
4.9

15,650
14,725
925
5.9

15,850
14,875
975
6.2

12.6
10.8
50.0
33.2

11.2
10.5
26.6
13.4

8,950
5,975
1,350
7,600
1,675
2,950
2,975
375
2,600

8,975
5,925
1,325
7,650
1,650
2,950
3,050
375
2,675

8,925
5,900
1,350
7,575
1,650
2,900
3,025
375
2,650

8,675
5,850
1,375
7,300
1,650
2,825
2,825
400
2,425

8,525
5,625
1,325
7,200
1,625
2,675
2,900
400
2,500

5.6
-0.9
3.9
5.9
1.6
-4.5
20.8
-5.9
26.6

7.6
7.3
46.1
2.9
3.0
-2.2
8.2
-6.1
10.8

27,110
21,882
2,264
2,964
932
6,231

27,067
22,190
2,180
2,696
817
4,667

29,642
23,973
2,251
3,418
963
9,791

27,947
22,513
2,023
3,411
826
9,416

...
...
...
3,502
885
...

2.3
1.7
-14.4
18.6
-18.9
101.6

10.6
10.7
4.7
15.3
-3.8
31.7

70,700
67,900
2,800
4.0

71,100
68,700
2,400
3.4

72,000
69,500
2,500
3.5

74,200
70,800
3,400
4.6

74,000
70,300
3,700
5.0

2.6
1.6
27.6
24.3

1.9
1.6
7.8
5.7

64,700
44,800
7,100
3,300
3,800
57,600
10,300
500
1,700
3,100
7,200
13,000
1,900
19,900
2,700
17,200

65,200
45,100
7,000
3,200
3,800
58,200
10,400
400
1,700
3,200
7,200
13,300
1,900
20,100
2,800
17,300

66,000
46,200
7,200
3,300
3,900
58,800
10,500
400
1,700
3,300
7,200
14,000
1,900
19,800
3,100
16,700

65,900
46,200
7,200
3,300
3,900
58,700
10,600
400
1,700
3,200
7,100
14,100
1,900
19,700
3,200
16,500

64,500
45,700
7,200
3,300
3,900
57,300
10,400
400
1,600
3,300
6,900
14,000
1,900
18,800
2,900
15,900

-1.1
-1.3
-2.7
-10.8
5.4
-0.9
2.0
0.0
-15.8
-5.7
1.5
-1.4
0.0
-0.5
-3.3
0.0

-0.1
0.1
-2.7
-9.0
3.7
0.2
3.2
-5.5
-8.0
-5.4
0.2
2.2
-1.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.7

140,686
83,459
32,145
25,081
7,887
25,569
17,979

135,601
85,569
27,507
22,524
6,826
35,834
20,547

151,336
91,949
31,821
27,566
7,769
34,977
23,939

165,525
97,847
35,531
32,148
7,783
40,030
32,117

...
...
...
34,244
8,653
...
...

3.5
-1.5
4.8
25.5
-14.2
-13.7
23.3

0.4
-2.3
1.8
13.3
-6.4
2.5
9.7

34
24

24
24

24
24

20
20

27
25

-46.0
-50.0

-44.3
-46.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

4,375
4,225
150
3.4

4,400
4,250
150
3.4

4,425
4,275
150
3.4

4,475
4,300
175
3.9

4,550
4,350
200
4.4

11.7
10.8
33.3
19.4

10.7
10.5
14.3
3.0

5,050
4,500
3,975
1,075
250
275
550
25
525

5,150
4,600
4,050
1,100
250
300
550
25
525

5,200
4,650
4,100
1,100
225
325
550
25
525

5,225
4,700
4,175
1,050
250
275
525
50
475

5,300
4,800
4,275
1,025
250
275
500
50
450

12.2
14.3
18.8
-8.9
-9.1
-15.4
-4.8
0.0
-5.3

11.6
12.8
16.4
-2.8
-2.4
-10.9
2.4
-5.6
3.0

19,809
18,326
553
930
292
9,561
882

14,527
12,965
484
1,078
327
6,277
715

22,501
20,883
418
1,200
338
5,065
580

26,256
24,582
468
1,206
292
3,383
945

...
...
...
1,224
309
...
...

127.1
132.9
85.6
79.6
22.8
-68.1
-28.8

158.3
186.1
43.5
29.9
5.4
-15.4
-6.1

100,300
96,300
4,000
4.0

100,400
96,800
3,600
3.6

100,200
96,400
3,800
3.8

102,400
97,700
4,700
4.6

102,700
97,500
5,200
5.1

3.4
2.0
40.5
35.9

2.7
2.2
15.6
12.5

66,000
52,800
11,800
8,500
3,300
54,200
12,800
600
2,600
4,300
10,200
8,400
2,100
13,200
1,300
11,900

65,700
52,600
11,700
8,500
3,200
54,000
12,800
600
2,500
4,400
10,100
8,500
2,000
13,100
1,300
11,800

65,600
52,600
11,700
8,500
3,200
53,900
12,800
600
2,500
4,300
10,100
8,600
2,000
13,000
1,400
11,600

64,900
52,400
11,600
8,500
3,100
53,300
12,800
600
2,500
4,200
10,000
8,700
2,000
12,500
1,400
11,100

63,500
51,400
11,500
8,400
3,100
52,000
12,500
600
2,400
4,100
9,800
8,600
1,900
12,100
1,400
10,700

-1.2
-3.0
-8.7
-7.7
-11.4
0.6
-1.6
0.0
-7.7
-6.8
0.0
3.6
-5.0
7.1
7.7
7.0

0.9
-1.4
-4.2
-3.0
-7.3
2.1
0.8
0.0
-1.0
-11.2
2.5
1.1
-3.6
11.5
9.7
11.8

178,222
129,592
24,763
23,867
7,505
55,375
11,321

171,442
124,628
24,092
22,722
6,886
59,779
10,728

176,949
121,382
29,519
26,048
7,341
64,707
12,357

185,255
131,881
23,499
29,875
7,233
67,142
7,932

...
...
...
28,294
7,150
...
...

-0.3
-6.1
-0.7
41.0
-3.6
-3.3
-20.5

-3.6
-6.4
1.3
15.3
-5.3
-14.9
4.7

93
47

57
57

72
72

66
64

42
42

-64.7
-64.1

-44.7
-46.7

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

21,300
20,350
950
4.5

21,400
20,550
850
4.0

21,625
20,750
875
4.0

22,025
20,850
1,175
5.3

21,850
20,575
1,275
5.8

3.4
2.0
34.2
29.8

1.4
1.1
7.2
5.6

14,600
9,575
2,475
12,125
2,400
4,700
5,025
450
4,575

14,700
9,650
2,475
12,225
2,425
4,750
5,050
450
4,600

14,875
9,675
2,500
12,375
2,400
4,775
5,200
550
4,650

14,600
9,600
2,475
12,125
2,375
4,750
5,000
550
4,450

14,150
9,350
2,450
11,700
2,325
4,575
4,800
550
4,250

-0.9
-1.6
-4.9
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.5
0.0
0.6

-0.6
-2.1
-5.1
0.4
0.8
-1.8
2.3
-2.1
2.8

38,305
25,498
4,758
8,049
2,531
8,092
-738

38,109
25,913
4,608
7,588
2,300
10,120
1,290

40,645
25,572
5,406
9,666
2,724
10,131
1,207

43,366
25,928
5,331
12,108
2,931
9,482
1,145

...
...
...
12,206
3,084
...
...

3.4
-7.0
-7.2
53.6
5.0
14.2
-33.3

0.9
-1.2
-3.1
16.8
-4.3
-0.8
-16.9

93,100
88,200
4,900
5.3

92,400
88,000
4,400
4.8

92,500
87,700
4,800
5.2

93,800
88,300
5,500
5.9

93,700
87,700
6,000
6.4

1.0
-0.9
39.5
38.2

0.7
-0.3
24.6
23.7

53,900
45,100
8,800
5,300
3,500
45,100
12,000
1,000
2,600
4,000
7,500
6,300
2,900
8,800
500
8,300

53,700
44,900
8,600
5,200
3,400
45,100
11,900
1,000
2,700
4,000
7,500
6,400
2,800
8,800
500
8,300

53,300
44,500
8,600
5,200
3,400
44,700
11,900
1,000
2,700
4,000
7,500
6,200
2,600
8,800
500
8,300

52,500
43,900
8,400
5,100
3,300
44,100
11,600
1,000
2,700
4,000
7,500
6,100
2,600
8,600
500
8,100

51,400
43,100
8,300
5,000
3,300
43,100
11,500
1,000
2,700
3,900
7,300
5,900
2,500
8,300
500
7,800

-3.4
-4.6
-13.5
-16.7
-8.3
-1.1
-1.7
0.0
3.8
0.0
2.8
-13.2
0.0
3.8
0.0
4.0

-2.1
-3.6
-13.9
-18.0
-6.7
0.6
-1.3
-3.3
-0.6
0.2
2.5
-5.6
7.3
6.0
0.0
6.4

178,428
125,713
22,211
30,504
9,592
38,608
4,627

161,044
112,064
19,013
29,967
9,082
38,409
3,916

170,835
117,999
19,948
32,888
9,269
37,174
4,814

162,820
109,809
16,813
36,198
8,764
37,579
4,001

...
...
...
38,112
9,631
...
...

-5.9
-12.4
-10.2
33.9
-8.4
-28.9
-17.8

-6.0
-9.9
-1.4
14.2
-6.1
-23.2
-5.7

54
40

86
62

47
47

55
55

29
29

-75.4
-71.3

-50.8
-54.4

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

7,500
7,125
375
5.0

7,350
7,025
325
4.4

7,375
7,000
375
5.1

7,375
6,875
500
6.8

7,400
6,825
575
7.8

-5.4
-8.1
43.8
52.0

-1.2
-1.7
9.1
10.5

5,275
2,625
325
4,950
1,275
1,025
2,650
325
2,325

5,150
2,500
300
4,850
1,250
950
2,650
325
2,325

5,075
2,450
300
4,775
1,200
950
2,625
325
2,300

4,875
2,400
275
4,600
1,200
925
2,475
325
2,150

4,675
2,225
250
4,425
1,125
850
2,450
325
2,125

-13.4
-19.8
-41.2
-11.1
-13.5
-19.0
-6.7
0.0
-7.6

-5.2
-13.8
-35.1
-2.5
-2.7
-17.5
4.9
2.6
5.2

25,696
12,926
2,342
10,429
3,279
4,152
506

19,634
9,237
2,217
8,180
2,479
2,946
425

20,099
8,729
2,014
9,357
2,637
3,372
466

21,654
8,913
1,895
10,845
2,626
1,529
508

...
...
...
12,585
3,180
...
...

11.2
2.5
-19.6
59.1
8.8
-35.0
1.5

4.2
-2.5
-2.0
20.0
-1.9
-9.2
-4.7

79,300
72,300
7,000
8.8

79,100
70,200
8,900
11.3

83,000
68,300
14,700
17.7

83,200
68,400
14,800
17.8

85,400
68,300
17,100
20.0

5.0
3.8
10.3
5.0

5.4
4.9
8.5
3.0

56,800
41,800
7,900
4,400
3,500
48,900
11,900
1,600
1,500
4,900
6,200
6,100
1,700
15,000
3,400
11,600

55,100
40,100
7,400
4,400
3,000
47,700
11,300
1,600
1,500
4,800
6,100
5,800
1,600
15,000
3,500
11,500

52,900
38,000
7,000
4,300
2,700
45,900
10,200
1,600
1,500
4,800
5,900
5,500
1,500
14,900
3,500
11,400

52,000
37,400
6,800
4,100
2,700
45,200
10,100
1,600
1,500
4,800
5,700
5,400
1,500
14,600
3,500
11,100

50,600
36,400
6,800
4,100
2,700
43,800
9,900
1,600
1,400
4,700
5,600
5,100
1,300
14,200
3,400
10,800

0.2
-1.9
-5.6
-12.8
8.0
1.2
-1.0
0.0
-12.5
17.5
-5.1
-1.9
-18.8
6.0
3.0
6.9

1.9
1.8
-3.9
-8.6
4.4
2.9
-0.8
14.5
-5.6
20.9
-1.4
5.6
-2.5
2.2
3.0
2.0

188,129
134,181
21,543
32,406
10,190
36,407
5,969

129,116
84,915
16,944
27,256
8,260
41,956
4,793

148,162
103,107
16,324
28,731
8,097
33,009
3,372

140,137
94,425
16,306
29,406
7,120
57,073
3,617

...
...
...
28,406
7,178
...
...

5.1
-0.8
1.8
36.8
-6.5
53.1
24.4

3.9
-0.1
4.6
29.5
7.0
-2.2
2.9

55
55

36
34

64
64

72
70

52
50

-44.7
-46.8

-30.7
-32.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

18,125
17,075
1,050
5.8

18,075
17,150
925
5.1

18,125
17,075
1,050
5.8

18,300
16,850
1,450
7.9

18,150
16,275
1,875
10.3

4.3
2.5
23.0
17.9

5.1
4.5
12.2
7.0

15,225
11,425
1,000
14,225
6,500
3,925
3,800
1,425
2,375

15,250
11,450
975
14,275
6,575
3,900
3,800
1,450
2,350

15,150
11,300
975
14,175
6,525
3,800
3,850
1,475
2,375

14,600
10,900
950
13,650
6,250
3,700
3,700
1,525
2,175

13,800
10,275
925
12,875
5,850
3,500
3,525
1,525
2,000

-0.4
0.0
-9.8
0.4
8.3
-9.1
-1.4
8.9
-8.0

3.1
2.7
1.0
3.3
7.7
-3.9
4.3
6.1
3.2

44,648
33,457
4,633
6,558
2,062
12,726
1,874

40,814
30,900
4,075
5,839
1,770
10,219
1,462

42,571
31,923
4,385
6,263
1,765
4,934
1,484

41,211
31,731
3,735
5,744
1,391
12,748
900

...
...
...
5,582
1,410
...
...

-9.0
-7.2
-25.3
1.4
-30.7
23.7
-21.4

-4.8
-6.7
-3.6
5.8
-11.6
-14.6
20.3

9
9

19
19

26
23

16
16

17
17

-73.4
-71.2

-56.7
-56.3

57,775
55,275
2,500
4.3

57,475
55,250
2,225
3.9

57,600
55,250
2,350
4.1

59,075
56,125
2,950
5.0

58,775
55,625
3,150
5.4

2.0
0.7
31.3
28.7

1.3
0.8
12.0
10.5

37,825
25,450
3,100
2,225
875
34,725
6,775
525
950
4,850
4,175
4,175
900
12,375
4,850
7,525

37,650
25,300
3,075
2,200
875
34,575
6,675
525
925
4,825
4,175
4,250
850
12,350
4,875
7,475

37,600
25,225
3,025
2,175
850
34,575
6,725
525
925
4,775
4,175
4,225
850
12,375
4,900
7,475

37,425
25,150
3,050
2,200
850
34,375
6,650
525
900
4,800
4,200
4,175
850
12,275
4,925
7,350

36,400
24,450
2,975
2,150
825
33,425
6,525
525
875
4,725
4,125
3,975
725
11,950
4,925
7,025

-2.3
-4.6
-11.9
-11.3
-13.2
-1.3
-6.1
-4.5
-7.9
-1.6
-1.8
1.3
-17.1
2.8
2.6
2.9

-1.1
-2.2
-5.0
-9.8
9.7
-0.7
-0.4
12.4
-13.3
-5.9
0.6
1.8
-9.1
1.2
1.1
1.2

95,560
68,094
11,416
16,049
5,047
27,862
4,752

91,118
64,927
10,488
15,703
4,759
22,932
3,961

98,053
66,313
11,843
19,898
5,608
18,578
3,849

100,348
69,089
10,917
20,342
4,925
27,684
3,762

...
...
...
19,669
4,970
...
...

9.1
1.5
2.3
53.4
4.9
-4.0
-5.7

3.3
0.7
1.8
23.5
1.1
-0.4
9.1

35
35

24
24

37
37

36
36

25
25

-62.1
-62.1

-30.8
-30.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

459.2
441.5
17.7
3.9

458.2
441.9
16.3
3.8

457.4
439.9
17.5
4.3

459.2
437.1
22.1
4.7

460.2
436.3
23.9
4.9

1.1
-0.4
37.4
36.1

0.6
0.1
15.0
14.9

381.2
2.0
24.7
27.0
12.1
10.4
43.7
9.1
5.7
16.3
52.1
54.7
5.2
6.0
29.0
15.1
10.7
69.5
42.9

380.5
2.0
24.4
26.9
12.0
10.4
43.4
9.1
5.6
16.3
51.7
54.3
5.3
6.0
29.0
14.9
10.9
70.3
43.7

379.4
2.0
24.3
26.9
12.1
10.4
43.0
9.1
5.5
16.3
51.5
54.3
5.2
5.8
28.8
15.0
10.9
70.4
43.0

368.8
2.1
23.6
26.9
12.2
10.5
42.9
9.0
5.3
16.3
51.6
53.8
5.0
5.6
28.1
15.1
11.0
62.0
34.4

362.7
2.1
23.1
26.5
12.2
10.2
42.4
8.9
5.3
16.1
51.0
52.8
5.5
5.5
27.1
14.5
10.9
60.8
33.1

-3.1
10.5
-12.5
-4.3
2.5
4.1
-3.9
-5.3
-10.2
-13.4
-2.5
-1.5
27.9
-8.3
-1.5
-5.2
2.8
0.0
-0.9

-1.3
17.1
-9.5
-0.2
5.8
4.1
-1.6
-2.2
-8.8
-10.6
0.7
1.1
-4.3
-15.8
0.4
-4.3
3.8
1.4
-0.0

1,085,257
686,680
155,393
140,487
102,697
178,558
34,029

983,217
599,549
157,777
126,756
99,134
192,309
19,850

1,023,759
632,482
155,495
129,014
106,769
171,842
28,507

967,361
591,091
152,671
104,377
119,223
199,775
22,374

...
...
...
...
114,894
...
...

-1.9
-8.0
8.5
-9.7
41.4
-5.2
-0.2

0.7
-2.6
6.9
-0.7
23.1
-6.6
-11.9

444
312
132

376
346
31

352
309
42

306
293
14

278
262
16

-47.8
-48.7
-27.1

-31.7
-43.0
157.5

233,208
900
259,120

246,878
973
253,729

257,073
1,025
250,803

266,202
1,034
257,449

240,837
945
254,854

-23.9
-20.1
-4.8

-30.1
-27.5
-3.1

439,004
20,932

384,833
18,975

383,191
18,138

353,152
17,404

352,542
16,702

-3.3
-17.0

3.6
-6.1

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

I
2008

II
2008

1,000.8
1.5
3.5
2.0
3.4

1,005.0
1.6
3.5
2.0
2.7

1,008.9
1.6
3.5
2.0
2.4

1,012.8
1.6
3.5
2.0
2.3

1,016.6
1.6
3.6
2.0
2.3

1.6
3.6
2.5
1.6
-32.1

1.8
8.8
3.7
0.0
-42.2

31,531
21,130
2,390
162
6,724
5,905
31,507

31,912
21,310
2,413
163
6,802
6,049
31,754

32,271
21,451
2,432
164
6,881
6,207
31,987

32,638
21,599
2,453
166
6,962
6,365
32,227

33,009
21,758
2,474
167
7,042
6,517
32,470

4.7
3.0
3.5
2.6
4.7
10.4
3.1

5.3
4.2
4.5
3.0
5.0
9.6
3.5

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2008

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

MAR
2008

APR
2008

2,080.8
2,007.5
73.3
3.5

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

2,070.4
2,003.7
66.7
3.4

2,068.7
1,996.3
72.4
3.8

2,085.2
1,994.5
90.7
4.3

2,096.7
1,998.2
98.5
4.6

2.3
0.8
44.6
39.4

1.9
1.4
16.2
13.3

1,914.3
3.4
151.6
108.3
38.1
15.3
26.8
89.4
232.3
9.1
56.5
31.3
111.0
39.7
322.4
34.6
179.0
27.4
29.8
136.1
72.0
21.8
231.8
124.2

1,911.6
3.4
149.2
108.3
38.1
15.2
26.9
89.6
231.5
9.1
56.1
31.0
110.5
39.4
322.3
34.5
179.9
27.9
29.9
136.7
71.9
22.1
231.4
124.0

1,906.9
3.4
147.0
108.3
38.1
15.3
26.6
90.0
230.3
9.2
56.0
31.0
110.3
39.6
322.8
34.5
180.5
28.0
29.5
135.9
72.5
22.1
229.4
121.4

1,865.2
3.4
144.6
108.3
38.2
15.3
26.6
90.0
229.0
9.3
55.6
30.4
110.0
39.7
322.0
33.2
180.7
27.1
28.9
133.3
73.4
22.0
197.7
89.3

1,843.7
3.4
142.4
108.5
38.3
15.3
26.9
90.6
226.9
9.3
55.7
30.2
109.6
39.5
320.2
32.6
180.4
26.0
28.2
128.9
71.4
22.3
190.7
82.8

-1.5
6.3
-16.5
-2.1
-3.3
0.0
0.4
1.2
-1.3
4.5
-2.1
-5.9
-3.4
-0.3
-0.9
10.1
4.9
5.3
0.7
2.2
2.6
2.3
-2.4
-6.1

-0.1
9.8
-11.0
-2.3
-3.8
1.4
-0.8
1.0
0.6
4.0
-2.0
-1.4
-3.2
-0.8
-0.7
3.1
4.8
5.3
0.5
2.6
0.4
1.8
5.0
6.6

5,053,889
3,236,911
671,735
647,729
497,514
1,124,723
199,845

4,692,666
2,938,308
682,041
588,677
483,640
1,116,788
140,145

4,757,039
2,948,823
672,177
601,479
534,560
1,175,751
124,769

4,522,919
2,804,495
659,968
499,717
558,738
1,088,231
81,845

...
...
...
...
542,671
...
...

-5.9
-12.9
7.9
-8.2
33.8
-24.3
-9.7

-2.4
-6.5
6.5
-0.7
18.5
-12.7
-0.1

1,611
1,233
23
355

2,224
1,345
59
821

2,026
1,424
63
539

2,432
1,474
87
871

1,853
1,280
25
548

-30.8
-43.8
-82.3
111.1

-38.7
-50.4
-30.4
12.3

1,262,332
4,303
293,361

1,352,722
4,875
277,481

1,520,455
5,637
269,728

1,520,060
5,748
264,450

1,488,025
5,974
249,084

-8.2
26.4
-27.4

-32.3
-21.6
-12.1

3,872,745
45,935

3,513,114
43,517

3,486,012
43,873

3,431,977
42,276

3,486,964
42,636

-6.4
-4.2

-1.2
-2.5

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
II
2007

III
2007

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
4,218.3
4,244.8
Natural Increase
11.2
11.3
Births
17.8
17.9
Deaths
6.6
6.6
Net Migration
18.7
15.2
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
145,542
147,025
Earnings by Place of Work
117,458
118,534
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
13,016
13,126
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-213
-215
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
22,152
22,193
Plus: Transfer Payments
19,161
19,638
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
34,503
34,637
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2007

I
2008

II
2008

4,270.2
11.3
17.9
6.6
14.1

4,295.0
11.3
18.0
6.7
13.5

4,319.5
11.3
18.1
6.8
13.2

2.4
1.3
1.8
2.7
-29.4

2.8
5.3
3.0
-0.6
-46.5

148,525
119,526
13,240
-214
22,319
20,134
34,782

150,084
120,571
13,361
-215
22,463
20,626
34,944

151,608
121,622
13,477
-215
22,566
21,112
35,099

4.2
3.5
3.5
-1.0
1.9
10.2
1.7

4.7
4.4
4.2
-7.3
1.3
9.9
1.9

6,475.8
14.7
25.8
11.1
34.2

6,519.0
14.4
25.8
11.4
18.2

6,556.3
14.4
25.5
11.1
18.0

6,590.5
14.3
25.8
11.5
17.2

6,621.7
14.4
26.2
11.8
16.5

2.3
-2.0
1.7
6.5
-51.8

2.6
-1.6
0.3
2.8
-48.9

206,595
154,812
17,374
729
35,438
32,992

209,845
156,664
17,592
742
36,404
33,629

212,257
158,283
17,733
753
36,933
34,024

214,266
159,873
18,020
760
36,948
34,708

217,893
160,420
18,062
763
37,123
37,652

5.5
3.6
4.0
4.6
4.8
14.1

5.2
3.7
4.0
5.8
6.9
9.5

114,512
24,491
15,826
142
15,683
31,903
42,300

115,943
24,831
15,720
144
15,576
32,190
42,722

117,329
25,081
15,630
187
15,443
32,375
42,967

118,677
25,364
15,449
16
15,433
32,511
43,420

119,007
25,549
...
...
...
32,906
...

3.9
4.3
-2.4
-83.7
-1.9
3.1
2.5

4.1
4.1
-1.5
8.4
-1.6
2.5
3.5

MAR
2008

APR
2008

MAY
2008

JUN
2008

1,407,062
143,427
524,704
738,931
613,080
66,470
482,651
63,959

1,636,354
142,038
548,950
945,366
334,608
39,766
248,302
46,540

1,890,123
139,035
633,675
1,117,413
220,856
29,008
141,849
49,999

2,198,418
151,344
739,650
1,307,424
143,002
21,318
83,046
38,638

2,237,986
137,514
869,123
1,231,349
150,206
21,825
91,875
36,506

-11.4
-1.0
4.0
-20.6
-6.0
7.4
-6.1
-12.5

-0.1
-1.8
1.5
-0.9
6.3
2.5
8.7
-1.5

633,871
1,989,903
719,694

603,818
1,909,541
692,154

n/a
n/a
736,244

n/a
n/a
669,072

n/a
n/a
666,726

-12.0
-3.1
-5.2

13.4
2.0
-3.9

213.5
209.1

214.8
210.7

216.6
212.8

218.8
215.2

220.0
216.3

5.6
6.2

4.0
4.3

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

JUL
2008

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

MAR
2008

APR
2008

3,066.4
2,946.6
119.8
4.0

JUN
2008

JUL
2008

3,053.7
2,942.6
111.1
3.9

3,057.4
2,932.0
125.4
4.4

3,085.8
2,931.9
153.9
4.8

3,100.4
2,932.0
168.4
5.1

2.3
0.8
37.0
37.8

1.8
1.3
14.8
10.1

2,675.7
12.4
203.4
143.9
19.8
41.5
27.5
35.5
108.3
330.8
12.6
72.4
42.5
127.4
51.8
400.4
44.4
269.6
37.4
48.1
193.6
98.0
52.6
390.6
211.8
40.4

2,670.2
12.4
200.6
143.7
19.7
41.5
27.5
35.1
107.8
329.8
12.6
72.1
42.0
126.9
51.4
399.6
43.9
270.0
38.0
48.6
194.4
97.4
53.2
390.7
212.3
40.4

2,663.3
12.5
198.7
143.6
19.6
41.4
27.4
34.6
107.1
327.9
12.6
72.0
41.9
126.8
51.4
399.8
44.1
270.4
38.3
48.5
193.4
97.7
54.1
387.9
207.7
40.3

2,608.1
12.6
195.6
143.5
19.5
41.4
27.6
34.5
106.2
326.6
12.6
71.7
41.2
126.6
51.3
398.9
42.0
270.0
37.9
47.7
189.2
99.1
54.5
346.4
164.8
41.3

2,570.6
12.7
192.6
143.5
19.5
41.4
27.6
34.4
106.3
322.7
12.6
71.5
40.9
126.0
50.9
395.6
39.3
269.6
36.5
46.6
183.3
96.0
54.4
335.2
154.2
40.8

-1.6
11.4
-15.1
-2.3
-3.0
-3.7
0.0
-0.9
-1.6
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-5.1
-4.3
-2.7
-1.1
-0.5
4.1
4.9
0.0
0.5
0.2
3.8
0.1
-0.6
0.5

-0.1
15.0
-10.6
-2.2
-0.7
-4.1
2.3
-0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.4
-1.3
-1.6
-4.0
-1.3
-0.5
-0.0
4.3
4.3
-0.1
1.0
-0.6
1.8
4.3
5.7
0.2

18.67
16.31
15.06
12.56
19.68

18.63
16.15
14.91
12.49
19.42

18.81
16.17
14.99
12.53
20.00

19.04
16.25
15.00
12.69
19.64

18.95
16.52
14.97
12.47
20.11

4.9
3.4
0.9
2.5
2.7

7.5
5.3
1.9
1.2
3.1

7,361,046
4,662,380
995,268
923,101
780,297
245,361
565,263
323,549
130,789
355,850
1,550,517
171,597
285,174

6,781,756
4,186,882
1,010,538
834,775
749,562
227,167
628,582
304,758
97,592
371,020
1,572,721
333,829
211,738

6,992,910
4,298,977
995,922
863,722
834,290
235,124
705,498
323,995
114,927
316,372
1,596,356
164,736
209,093

6,700,604
4,101,484
977,834
731,919
889,367
215,327
863,978
351,213
92,130
309,162
1,578,861
144,734
169,141

...
...
...
...
873,495
220,730
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-3.7
-10.3
6.4
-7.2
35.7
-7.2
-3.4
16.5
-3.1
-4.1
-19.3
-16.0
-0.8

-1.3
-5.1
5.9
-0.4
19.0
-2.0
5.7
5.5
4.1
1.6
-11.3
-1.4
-0.5

2,473
1,884
41
547

2,980
2,048
93
839

2,745
2,097
77
571

3,037
2,067
95
875

2,404
1,813
36
555

-36.1
-45.5
-78.8
106.0

-38.3
-47.5
-36.7
16.6

1,414
1,093
23
297

1,552
1,234
25
293

1,419
1,092
31
296

1,577
1,278
35
263

1,782
1,415
39
328

100.4
103.6
85.7
89.6

73.1
77.0
63.0
60.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

I
2008

II
2008

212.6
207.7
203.2

212.6
208.2
203.6

214.5
209.7
205.3

216.9
212.1
207.7

221.2
216.8
212.9

4.0
4.4
4.8

3.5
3.7
3.9

119.5
117.2

120.0
118.0

120.8
119.2

121.6
120.3

122.0
121.5

2.0
3.7

2.3
3.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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