J U L Y

2 0 0 8

•

S U M M E R

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Home Prices Plummet
Home Prices, Metro Phoenix
Index (2000=100)

Recessionary Forces
Continue Unabated
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
June 1, 2008

While analysts debate whether malaise in
the U.S. economy will last long enough, be
deep enough, and widespread enough to
qualify as recession, there is little doubt
that Arizona’s economy already has passed
these tests. Homebuilding is in one of the
sharpest corrections on record, consumers
are in full retreat, and measure after
measure of economic activity is at
recessionary levels. The questions now are
“how long and how bad?”
In Arizona, inflation-adjusted retail sales have
been declining since December of 2006 and nonfarm employment peaked in August of last year. So
far, the sales measure has declined by 9.5%, while
employment has declined a much more modest
0.5%. While the drop in job counts is slight, the
data significantly overstates reality. The drop in
sales tax receipts, along with plunges in both individual and corporate income taxes, has sent state
revenue collections declining at double-digit rates
when compared to a year earlier.

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

Although this past spring’s annual employment
revisions reduced 2007 employment estimates by a
record 53,600 jobs, the new pattern shows that
employment is not declining. Rather, it has been
remarkably flat during the past 12 months, once
seasonality is removed.
However, we expect these estimates to be
revised significantly downward again next March
due to model-based estimates of firm births and
deaths that are part of the estimates program.
Data for Arizona show that the firm birth/death
adjustment has added 26,500 jobs during the 12
months ending in April. The reported data show a
small decline of 4,900 jobs over that period, but all
of that increase is accounted for by the birth/death
adjustment — and then some. Without the adjustment, nonfarm payrolls have declined by 31,000. In
short, changes in job counts are being driven by
the birth/death adjustment, resulting in reported
job counts that are seriously overstated.
The better-than-expected employment numbers
also contain a specious jump in state education
employment (primarily in metro Phoenix). In the
third quarter of last year the numbers jumped by
nearly 10,000. That’s like adding a branch campus
of ASU. According to analysts who compile employment estimates, it is difficult to get job counts from
government agencies, particularly the state. A large
jump or drop from year to year is a recurring prob-

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

lem with government job counts. Excluding
state and local education, nonfarm job growth
would be 0.4% lower over the past year.

Housing Prices Decline: How Bad?
Housing markets are in the most severe
downturn since World War II, and Arizona is
one of the hardest-hit states.
Housing prices in metro Phoenix are declining. But by how much? The answer depends on
the measure. Often cited realtor data shows
that the median price of homes sold dropped
by 16.8% during the past year (to $210,000 in
March), and by 19.2% since prices peaked in
September 2005 at $260,000. Since the realtor
data do not control for the mix of homes sold,
which varies significantly from month to
month and over the business cycle, these estimates are minimally useful.
Better measures that control for mix by measuring price movements for properties that
have sold more than once are reported by the
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
(OFHEO), and by the Standard and Poor’s
Case-Shiller (SPCS) housing price index.
The OFHEO measure probably understates the recent decline since it is
based on houses financed by
conventional financing,

thereby excluding homes with subprime and
jumbo loans (the bottom and top of the market).
SPCS includes all properties regardless of financing, but the sample is much smaller as data is collected only in 20 large cities across the nation.
Economists tend to favor the SPCS estimates but
it’s clear that both sources portray different samples of housing transactions.
SPCS shows that home prices in metro Phoenix
have declined by 24.1% from June 2006 through
February. With data through the first quarter of
2008, the OFHEO measure shows prices falling by
only 6.7% from its fourth quarter 2006 peak.
Exhibit 1 shows both indexes (benchmarked to
2000=100) back to 1990.
Although OFHEO didn’t rise as much during the
boom, there is a remarkable correlation over the
period 1990-2004. Subprime and Alt-A lending
skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006, which accounts for
the divergence. What remains to be seen is how
these indexes will track as prices fall. SPCS will no
doubt undershoot the income trend, and then
approach from below. The OFHEO measure is
expected to fall significantly in coming months –
by at least 20%.
Also shown is disposable personal income for
the metro Phoenix area, indexed to 2000=100.
Divergence between the income line and the price
measures represents deteriorating housing affordability. But now that prices are falling, affordability is improving. According to the SPCS index,
affordability is nearly back to the record high levels of affordability experienced prior to the boom.
The good news is that at some point, home
prices will fall to a low enough level to spur home
buying. The best bet is that prices will bottom out
in the second half of next year as investors and
home buyers find super deals. Once prices start
behaving “normally” again, annual appreciation
should parallel increases in overall prices. The
doubling of prices over the 2004-2006 period was
a once-in-a-generation phenomenon.

retail sales adjusted for inflation in goods prices
have declined six of the past seven months with
data through April. In Arizona, real retail sales
have been declining since December 2006 and
have fallen 9.5%!
One reason for the pullback is the deterioration
in labor markets, i.e., declining employment and
diminishing gains in wages. Another factor is the
loss of borrowing power from home equity as
home prices decline and lending standards tighten.
In 2006, households were tapping nearly 6% of
disposable income through home mortgage equity
withdrawals (MEWs). Today, MEWs are 2% and
falling rapidly toward zero. Likewise, households
have sold huge amounts of corporate equities to
raise cash (buyers are the corporations themselves
who have used excess cash to repurchase their
own stock). Finally, consumers more recently have
borrowed heavily in order to continue their spending ways, driving debt and household financial
obligation ratios to near all-time highs.
In 2005, household spending as a percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) rose to a post-WWII record
76.2%, the result of a string of years in which
households ran deficits. Since 1999, households
have spent more than they earned, going deeper
into debt and selling assets. Exhibit 2 dramatically
shows the magnitude of this role reversal as households went on a super-sized spending spree.
Net financial investment is a flow of funds

measure calculated as the acquisition of financial
assets less the increase in liabilities. Financial
assets include deposits at financial institutions,
securities, and equities. It does not include the
value of real property such as the value of one’s
home. Liabilities include mortgages, consumer
credit, loans, and other forms of borrowing. If liabilities grow faster than assets, net financial
investment is negative.
Normally, households are net savers, thereby
providing funds to other sectors of the economy;
businesses and the federal government normally
are net borrowers. But since 1999, just before the
tech bubble peaked, households became net borrowers (and businesses became net savers).
Foreigners continued providing mountains of cash
as well.
The data in the chart begins in 1970, but with
data as far back as 1929, there were only six years
in which households ran deficits. They did so during the depression, during WWII, and during the
late 1940s.
Households’ role reversal during this decade is
unprecedented in depth and length. But now that
the “easy money” has dried up, households must
return to normal. This means that spending will
not be a driver of growth anytime soon as consumers as forced to throttle back spending to
match gains in income. Welcome back to earth.

EXHIBIT 2
Unprecedented Deficits Fueled Spending Binge
Households: Net Financial Investment as % of Personal Income

Consumers Return to Earth
Following several years of prolific spending,
consumers are now in full retreat. Nationwide,

2.

The OFHEO home price index shows a decline of
6.7% in metro Phoenix, 2.9% in metro Tucson, 1.8% in Flagstaff,
3.8% in Prescott, and 3.4% in Yuma.

The Outlook
The credit crunch which began in August of
2007 is the worst since the 1990-91 recession,
and it is still building. The economy can’t mount a
recovery until the crunch ends, and the consensus
is that we are only half way through. Credit
spreads between riskier debt and U.S. treasuries
are still quite high, and surveys of banking senior
credit officers show record high levels of tightening. So far, the U.S. financial system has written
down $250 billion through April and credit quality
continues to sink across all categories, including
mortgages, commercial lending, and consumer
credit cards. The banking system has been able to
recapitalize to the tune of $125 billion so far, but
until at least a like amount is raised, lending will
remain hard to get and the economy will struggle.
The credit squeeze and faltering economy has
brought a massive policy response from both the
Federal Reserve and Congress. To keep credit markets working, the Fed has cut short term interest
rates very aggressively, guaranteed the bailout of
Bear Sterns, and opened credit windows to not only
commercial banks but investment banks as well.
Some of these moves are unprecedented. Congress
also has responded with determination, issuing
$107 billion in rebate checks that will arrive in the
second and third quarters. This represents a rather
large 4.3% of quarterly consumer spending.
The strong stimulus will lift the economy during

the summer. The bad news is that when its effects
are gone, the economy will weaken once again,
possibly producing a W-shaped recession with
negative growth in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter 2009.
Consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest
levels since the early 1980s during the severe
recession of 1981-82. Consumers are cancelling
summer vacations (this component stands at the
lowest level since October 1978) and postponing
purchases of autos and major appliances.
Additionally, potential homebuyers are clearly on
the sidelines for now as evidenced by record lows
for traffic through model homes. Consumers are
concerned about inflation for food and gasoline
and are increasingly worried about job security
and their deteriorating financial condition. We
look for Arizona retail sales (including food
bought for home consumption, gasoline, and
restaurant and bar sales) to decline this year and
next, after adjusting for inflation.
The pace of growth in Arizona will not accelerate
until construction activity starts moving upward
again. Home building is expected to bottom soon
but remain at very low levels until the excess supply of resale homes falls to more reasonable levels.
The inventory of resale homes has yet to top out
and will continue to grow as foreclosed properties
are added. Commercial construction also has
topped out and activity will decline as the pipeline

EXHIBIT 3
Economy is Still Downshifting
Annual Change in Population & Jobs
000s

Arizona

empties. The recent plunge in the Architecture
Billings Index, published by the American Institute
of Architects, is a precursor of what lies ahead. We
look for residential permits statewide to continue
declining through the summer and to average only
30,000 per year this year and next.
Nonfarm employment will decline this year and
next, on an annual average basis. Growth won’t
turn positive until the fourth quarter of next year.
A total loss of 65,000 jobs represents a decline of
2.4% from peak to trough. That is not as bad as
the decline of 4.7% during the 1974-75 recession,
but equals the 2.4% drop during 1981-82.
However, the projected drop will exceed those of
the two most-recent recessions, which measured
0.6% in 1990-91 and 1.4% in 2001.
With fewer jobs being created and housing markets in turmoil, population growth will slow appreciably to annual gains less than 150,000 per year
for three years running. That compares to an estimated gain of 250,000 in 2006. The rate of growth
ranges between 2.0 and 2.3% over the 2008-10
period (Exhibit 3).
All considered, the recovery is expected to be
subdued and similar to the “jobless recovery”
following the last recession, when it felt as
though the malaise would never end. But by
mid-2010 Arizona’s growth machine should be
up-shifting again and accelerating toward the
next growth surge. n

Arizona Exports by
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Lora Mwaniki-Lyman and Valorie Hanni Rice
Exports of goods to the global market for all of Arizona’s metro
areas increased 22.5% between 2005 and 2006. The Phoenix metro
area accounted for 69.19% of all Arizona 2006 exports and ranked
20th among 362 U.S. metro areas in export value. The Tucson metro
area ranked 61st.
The Prescott metro area recorded the highest growth rate among
Arizona’s metro areas and ranked 11th in export growth.
The top export industry for the Phoenix metro area in 2006 was
computer and electronic products (NAICS 334). This industry alone
accounted for more than half of its total exports.
For the complete article, please visit:
http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/benchmarks/Sector/AZ_Intnl_Exports.aspx

Since 1999, households have spent more than they earned,
going deeper into debt and selling assets. But now that the
“easy money” has dried up, households must return to normal.

3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2007
209,349.1
6.3
43,414
4.2
82,720.9
2.3
6,500.2
3.1
48,386
-25.8
2,673.9
1.5
417.7
-4.2
2,256.2
2.6
527.9
3.1
403.7
2.4
271.4
1.7
422.7
3.5

2008
216,950.4
3.6
44,773
3.1
83,948.0
1.5
6,648.0
2.3
30,344
-37.3
2,666.4
-0.3
383.0
-8.3
2,283.4
1.2
528.4
0.1
405.4
0.4
271.1
-0.1
431.7
2.1

2009
220,230.7
1.5
45,941
2.6
84,866.7
1.1
6,782.1
2.0
30,858
1.7
2,625.6
-1.5
341.2
-10.9
2,284.5
0.1
517.5
-2.0
397.4
-2.0
273.4
0.9
433.9
0.5

2010
229,940.9
4.4
47,299
3.0
87,564.6
3.2
6,924.5
2.1
40,204
30.3
2,645.5
0.8
326.1
-4.4
2,319.5
1.5
521.3
0.7
398.3
0.2
282.0
3.1
437.3
0.8

2011
246,765.3
7.3
48,978
3.5
92,690.8
5.9
7,099.2
2.5
57,384
42.7
2,734.2
3.4
337.1
3.4
2,397.3
3.4
541.5
3.9
412.2
3.5
294.6
4.5
443.0
1.3

2012
270,202.3
9.5
51,011
4.2
100,218.3
8.1
7,307.1
2.9
70,822
23.4
2,875.2
5.2
363.7
7.9
2,511.7
4.8
572.0
5.6
438.0
6.2
308.3
4.6
452.3
2.1

2013
295,204.5
9.3
53,135
4.2
108,272.3
8.0
7,534.6
3.1
77,545
9.5
3,021.7
5.1
391.6
7.7
2,630.4
4.7
601.9
5.2
466.5
6.5
320.1
3.8
462.7
2.3

147,483.9
6.5
49,538
4.2
57,377.8
1.9
4,235.2
3.5
37,272
-15.8
1,916.1
1.7
308.1
-4.5
1,608.2
3.0
391.3
3.1
328.5
2.9
185.6
2.8
239.2
4.4

151,712.0
2.9
51,317
3.6
57,967.2
1.0
4,330.2
2.2
21,427
-42.5
1,893.3
-1.2
266.6
-13.5
1,626.7
1.2
387.9
-0.9
335.5
2.1
185.8
0.2
242.3
1.3

155,436.0
2.5
53,111
3.5
58,198.1
0.4
4,426.3
2.2
21,856
2.0
1,875.6
-0.9
252.2
-5.4
1,623.4
-0.2
380.9
-1.8
326.4
-2.7
187.6
0.9
243.9
0.7

163,562.1
5.2
55,070
3.7
61,249.5
5.2
4,541.8
2.6
32,663
49.4
1,895.7
1.1
243.3
-3.5
1,652.4
1.8
387.7
1.8
323.8
-0.8
194.0
3.4
247.3
1.4

177,712.4
8.7
57,232
3.9
66,227.5
8.1
4,693.0
3.3
49,576
51.8
1,980.8
4.5
263.3
8.2
1,717.6
3.9
408.1
5.3
330.7
2.1
203.8
5.1
253.5
2.5

196,555.0
10.6
59,552
4.1
72,506.8
9.5
4,873.9
3.9
64,247
29.6
2,110.8
6.6
293.2
11.4
1,817.6
5.8
434.6
6.5
354.8
7.3
214.5
5.2
262.0
3.4

216,621.5
10.2
61,847
3.9
78,417.1
8.2
5,065.4
3.9
71,732
11.7
2,249.9
6.6
323.8
10.4
1,926.2
6.0
458.9
5.6
388.3
9.4
223.8
4.3
270.9
3.4

31,875.1
6.9
41,614
4.7
11,970.0
2.5
1,003.2
2.2
5,237
-38.5
384.0
1.2
55.4
-3.9
328.7
2.1
64.2
2.5
52.1
4.7
40.2
-0.9
77.9
2.2

33,177.7
4.1
42,894
3.1
12,193.8
1.9
1,019.3
1.6
4,027
-23.1
382.6
-0.4
53.2
-4.0
329.4
0.2
65.0
1.2
52.5
0.8
39.8
-1.0
78.1
0.2

34,114.7
2.8
44,110
2.8
12,421.0
1.9
1,036.4
1.7
4,745
17.8
380.8
-0.5
50.6
-4.8
330.2
0.2
64.9
-0.1
52.1
-0.7
40.0
0.4
77.5
-0.8

36,162.3
6.0
45,367
2.9
13,026.8
4.9
1,058.3
2.1
6,748
42.2
387.7
1.8
51.7
2.3
336.0
1.7
66.3
2.1
51.8
-0.5
41.4
3.5
78.1
0.8

38,915.6
7.6
46,911
3.4
13,828.0
6.2
1,084.0
2.4
8,403
24.5
400.9
3.4
54.7
5.6
346.3
3.1
68.6
3.5
53.3
2.8
43.4
4.9
79.1
1.3

42,005.8
7.9
48,723
3.9
14,749.6
6.7
1,111.4
2.5
9,357
11.3
415.7
3.7
57.4
5.0
358.3
3.5
71.0
3.5
55.7
4.5
45.4
4.5
80.2
1.4

44,869.4
6.8
50,626
3.9
15,585.3
5.7
1,137.4
2.3
8,888
-5.0
427.1
2.8
58.6
2.1
368.5
2.8
72.9
2.6
58.2
4.6
46.8
3.1
80.9
0.8

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

19,925
18,025
1,900
9.5

20,350
18,400
1,950
9.6

20,125
18,350
1,775
8.8

20,125
18,475
1,650
8.2

19,925
18,500
1,425
7.2

1.1
2.1
-9.5
-10.5

-0.7
0.5
-11.5
-10.9

19,600
6,850
725
18,875
1,750
4,375
12,750
3,275
9,475

19,625
6,850
750
18,875
1,725
4,375
12,775
3,225
9,550

19,825
6,850
750
19,075
1,725
4,375
12,975
3,250
9,725

19,950
6,975
775
19,175
1,725
4,475
12,975
3,275
9,700

19,950
6,975
800
19,150
1,700
4,475
12,975
3,275
9,700

-0.1
-1.1
6.7
-0.4
-12.8
2.9
0.4
0.8
0.3

-1.5
-1.3
5.9
-1.8
-10.0
1.4
-1.7
0.1
-2.3

31,594
24,639
621
6,334
2,181
8,246
947

15,659
9,546
725
5,389
1,885
6,584
683

12,280
5,641
730
5,909
2,057
6,038
693

26,209
18,153
787
7,268
2,285
4,683
934

...
...
...
7,681
2,328
...
...

97.2
219.9
-10.9
14.0
1.8
-25.1
-2.8

26.7
51.6
0.4
5.9
-4.4
32.4
2.1

38,625
35,800
2,825
7.3

38,900
35,825
3,075
7.9

38,325
35,475
2,850
7.4

38,500
35,825
2,675
6.9

38,350
36,025
2,325
6.1

1.8
1.6
5.7
3.8

1.1
1.4
-2.8
-3.9

30,275
19,175
3,525
2,700
825
26,750
5,875
825
600
1,250
3,650
2,800
650
11,100
1,750
9,350

29,650
18,925
3,475
2,675
800
26,175
5,750
825
625
1,250
3,575
2,775
650
10,725
1,600
9,125

29,650
18,725
3,375
2,600
775
26,275
5,725
825
600
1,225
3,550
2,775
650
10,925
1,625
9,300

29,975
19,000
3,425
2,625
800
26,550
5,825
825
600
1,250
3,575
2,850
650
10,975
1,650
9,325

30,050
18,950
3,425
2,625
800
26,625
5,725
800
600
1,250
3,575
2,925
650
11,100
1,725
9,375

-0.4
-3.2
-7.4
-6.3
-11.1
0.6
-2.6
3.2
0.0
-7.4
3.6
-4.1
-16.1
4.7
6.2
4.5

-0.1
-1.3
-8.9
-8.5
-10.5
1.2
2.3
2.4
-5.6
-0.8
4.9
1.1
-22.7
2.0
1.6
2.1

95,757
74,136
7,110
14,511
4,996
26,397
2,163

75,345
54,988
6,870
13,487
4,718
19,708
2,191

71,064
51,375
6,774
12,915
4,496
15,957
2,229

90,958
67,508
7,469
15,980
5,025
17,971
3,194

...
...
...
15,552
4,713
...
...

5.0
1.9
4.9
7.6
-3.9
-9.1
41.3

1.5
-1.5
5.8
14.5
2.8
13.1
3.7

14
14

15
15

24
24

21
21

38
38

-7.3
-7.3

-24.0
-25.2

* As reported by ADOR
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

14,925
14,150
775
5.2

15,025
14,150
875
5.8

15,150
14,375
775
5.1

15,200
14,450
750
4.9

15,200
14,525
675
4.4

10.7
10.0
28.6
16.1

9.9
10.0
8.5
-1.8

8,750
5,750
1,275
7,475
1,650
2,825
3,000
375
2,625

8,450
5,800
1,300
7,150
1,625
2,875
2,650
375
2,275

8,900
5,875
1,300
7,600
1,650
2,925
3,025
375
2,650

8,950
5,975
1,350
7,600
1,675
2,950
2,975
375
2,600

8,950
5,900
1,325
7,625
1,700
2,875
3,050
375
2,675

6.9
6.3
47.2
2.0
7.9
-6.5
8.0
-6.3
10.3

8.0
9.1
52.4
2.9
2.3
0.6
5.6
-6.0
7.8

30,641
24,816
2,438
3,387
1,166
5,790

23,115
19,044
2,073
1,998
699
4,916

24,972
20,641
2,165
2,167
754
5,510

27,110
21,882
2,264
2,964
932
6,231

...
...
...
2,696
817
...

7.1
8.3
3.6
-12.7
-22.0
50.7

14.0
13.1
12.1
19.1
6.6
16.9

70,100
66,900
3,200
4.6

70,200
66,800
3,400
4.8

70,000
67,000
3,000
4.3

70,700
67,900
2,800
4.0

71,000
68,600
2,400
3.4

1.9
1.6
9.1
7.1

1.6
1.8
-3.9
-5.3

64,300
44,600
7,100
3,400
3,700
57,200
10,300
400
1,700
3,100
7,200
12,900
1,900
19,700
2,800
16,900

63,000
43,700
6,900
3,200
3,700
56,100
10,200
400
1,700
3,200
7,000
12,500
1,800
19,300
2,600
16,700

63,900
44,000
7,000
3,200
3,800
56,900
10,200
500
1,700
3,100
7,100
12,500
1,900
19,900
2,700
17,200

64,700
44,800
7,100
3,300
3,800
57,600
10,300
500
1,700
3,100
7,200
13,000
1,900
19,900
2,700
17,200

65,200
45,100
7,000
3,200
3,800
58,200
10,400
500
1,700
3,200
7,100
13,300
1,900
20,100
2,800
17,300

-0.5
-0.4
-4.1
-11.1
2.7
0.0
4.0
25.0
-10.5
-3.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.6

0.2
0.6
-1.8
-6.1
2.5
0.4
2.7
-8.6
-3.6
-5.3
0.0
3.7
-1.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.9

142,138
95,892
24,407
21,838
7,518
36,150
12,121

106,089
69,594
17,080
19,416
6,793
25,063
8,843

115,563
74,189
22,055
19,319
6,726
26,151
9,891

140,686
83,459
32,145
25,081
7,887
25,569
17,979

...
...
...
22,524
6,826
...
...

-0.2
-3.4
1.9
-5.5
-15.5
-23.9
14.3

0.8
-0.8
1.6
5.8
-3.9
4.9
9.8

19
19

29
29

13
13

34
24

24
24

-41.5
-41.5

-39.0
-37.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

4,275
4,125
150
3.5

4,300
4,125
175
4.1

4,350
4,200
150
3.4

4,375
4,225
150
3.4

4,375
4,225
150
3.4

10.1
9.7
20.0
9.0

9.8
10.0
4.7
-4.8

5,025
4,475
3,900
1,125
250
325
550
25
525

5,000
4,475
3,900
1,100
275
300
525
25
500

5,025
4,500
3,950
1,075
250
300
525
25
500

5,050
4,500
3,975
1,075
250
275
550
25
525

5,100
4,550
4,000
1,100
250
300
550
25
525

12.1
13.0
15.9
0.0
-9.1
0.0
4.8
0.0
5.0

10.9
11.6
15.4
-2.2
1.6
-15.7
5.6
-10.5
7.0

29,920
28,771
461
688
237
5,917
537

417
-712
487
642
225
4,103
622

11,446
10,182
414
851
296
6,900
686

19,809
18,326
553
930
292
9,561
882

...
...
...
1,078
327
...
...

75.6
84.0
5.1
38.9
24.1
21.3
33.8

116.4
139.2
36.3
9.9
-1.6
13.4
16.9

99,300
95,100
4,200
4.2

99,600
95,000
4,600
4.6

99,900
95,900
4,000
4.0

100,300
96,300
4,000
4.0

100,800
97,200
3,600
3.6

3.7
3.4
12.5
8.5

2.5
2.4
4.1
1.6

65,800
52,800
12,100
8,800
3,300
53,700
13,000
600
2,500
4,400
10,100
8,100
2,000
13,000
1,300
11,700

64,600
52,200
11,900
8,600
3,300
52,700
12,800
600
2,500
4,300
9,900
8,200
2,000
12,400
1,300
11,100

65,800
52,600
11,800
8,600
3,200
54,000
12,800
600
2,500
4,300
10,200
8,300
2,100
13,200
1,300
11,900

66,000
52,800
11,800
8,500
3,300
54,200
12,800
600
2,600
4,300
10,200
8,400
2,100
13,200
1,300
11,900

66,100
53,000
11,800
8,600
3,200
54,300
12,900
600
2,500
4,400
10,200
8,600
2,000
13,100
1,300
11,800

1.5
-0.4
-3.3
-1.1
-8.6
2.6
2.4
0.0
0.0
-10.2
3.0
2.4
-4.8
10.1
8.3
10.3

1.3
-0.7
-4.0
-2.7
-7.1
2.5
1.6
0.0
1.0
-10.5
4.2
1.2
-3.6
10.4
6.2
10.9

195,996
152,026
23,042
20,929
7,205
45,811
6,881

151,796
113,697
19,005
19,094
6,680
44,227
5,069

153,189
113,061
20,889
19,239
6,698
42,545
7,151

178,222
129,592
24,763
23,867
7,505
55,375
11,321

...
...
...
22,722
6,886
...
...

-4.0
-6.6
0.5
-1.8
-12.2
-9.6
7.1

-2.3
-4.3
2.4
5.5
-5.2
-18.1
10.8

51
51

81
65

68
68

93
47

57
57

-56.2
-55.1

-46.0
-47.5

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

21,025
20,000
1,025
4.9

21,425
20,300
1,125
5.3

21,200
20,200
1,000
4.7

21,300
20,350
950
4.5

21,400
20,550
850
4.0

1.9
1.9
3.0
1.1

1.1
1.4
-4.9
-5.9

14,500
9,475
2,450
12,050
2,425
4,600
5,025
450
4,575

14,425
9,500
2,500
11,925
2,375
4,625
4,925
425
4,500

14,525
9,475
2,475
12,050
2,325
4,675
5,050
450
4,600

14,600
9,575
2,475
12,125
2,400
4,700
5,025
450
4,575

14,700
9,650
2,475
12,225
2,450
4,725
5,050
450
4,600

-0.2
-0.5
-5.7
1.0
4.3
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5

-0.2
-1.6
-2.9
0.4
1.1
-2.1
2.6
-4.1
3.4

38,926
27,489
4,605
6,832
2,352
8,177
875

33,569
22,729
3,989
6,851
2,397
6,269
663

34,012
23,269
4,380
6,364
2,216
7,261
882

38,305
25,498
4,758
8,049
2,531
8,092
-738

...
...
...
7,588
2,300
...
...

-0.9
-1.6
1.9
-13.3
-22.5
-19.0
-164.8

2.8
1.3
0.3
6.8
-3.4
-2.7
-3.5

92,900
87,800
5,100
5.5

94,300
88,700
5,600
5.9

93,200
88,200
5,000
5.4

93,100
88,200
4,900
5.3

92,100
87,700
4,400
4.8

0.5
-0.2
18.9
18.3

0.2
-0.5
16.1
15.8

54,200
45,400
9,200
5,600
3,600
45,000
12,000
1,000
2,600
3,800
7,600
6,500
2,700
8,800
500
8,300

53,700
45,000
9,100
5,600
3,500
44,600
11,700
900
2,600
4,000
7,300
6,500
2,900
8,700
500
8,200

53,600
44,800
9,000
5,500
3,500
44,600
11,700
900
2,500
4,000
7,400
6,400
2,900
8,800
500
8,300

53,900
45,100
8,800
5,300
3,500
45,100
12,000
1,000
2,600
4,000
7,500
6,300
2,900
8,800
500
8,300

53,400
44,600
8,600
5,200
3,400
44,800
11,900
800
2,700
3,900
7,500
6,400
2,800
8,800
500
8,300

-2.4
-3.7
-13.1
-16.1
-8.1
0.0
0.0
-20.0
0.0
-2.5
1.4
-7.2
12.0
4.8
0.0
5.1

-2.3
-3.7
-14.9
-19.1
-7.0
0.8
-1.0
-7.2
-0.3
-2.1
3.0
-2.4
4.9
5.4
0.0
5.8

167,183
125,639
16,364
25,180
8,669
34,773
2,860

143,411
102,649
16,083
24,679
8,634
44,661
2,771

151,527
109,951
17,933
23,643
8,231
37,528
3,350

178,428
125,713
22,211
30,504
9,592
38,608
4,627

...
...
...
29,967
9,082
...
...

-2.0
-6.7
13.6
0.9
-9.8
-27.4
59.8

-5.9
-9.1
-0.0
6.8
-3.8
-24.9
0.8

43
41

25
25

79
46

54
40

86
62

-13.1
-33.3

-53.6
-52.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

7,700
7,225
475
6.2

7,950
7,450
500
6.3

7,575
7,200
375
5.0

7,500
7,125
375
5.0

7,325
7,000
325
4.4

-3.3
-3.1
-7.1
-4.0

-1.1
-0.9
-3.6
-2.7

5,350
2,650
300
5,050
1,300
1,050
2,700
325
2,375

5,325
2,675
300
5,025
1,325
1,050
2,650
325
2,325

5,300
2,625
325
4,975
1,300
1,000
2,675
325
2,350

5,275
2,625
325
4,950
1,275
1,025
2,650
325
2,325

5,175
2,525
300
4,875
1,250
975
2,650
325
2,325

-5.9
-18.5
-47.8
-1.0
-2.0
-22.0
10.4
8.3
10.7

-3.1
-10.1
-27.6
-0.8
-1.6
-12.2
5.2
1.3
5.7

23,025
11,555
2,468
9,002
3,099
4,347
453

28,792
16,488
3,118
9,186
3,214
2,638
634

25,618
14,896
2,897
7,825
2,724
2,811
614

25,696
12,926
2,342
10,429
3,279
4,152
506

...
...
...
8,180
2,479
...
...

12.5
4.1
-2.8
-9.5
-19.1
86.9
-29.0

5.9
-2.0
0.2
19.0
5.3
-1.6
-1.3

81,200
72,000
9,200
11.3

82,000
73,500
8,500
10.4

79,900
72,700
7,200
9.0

79,300
72,300
7,000
8.8

79,100
70,200
8,900
11.3

4.9
5.2
2.3
-2.5

3.8
4.0
2.4
-1.0

56,900
42,000
8,200
4,700
3,500
48,700
11,600
1,700
1,600
4,900
6,200
6,000
1,800
14,900
3,400
11,500

56,300
41,900
8,200
4,600
3,600
48,100
11,600
1,700
1,600
4,900
6,200
6,000
1,700
14,400
3,400
11,000

57,000
42,100
8,200
4,600
3,600
48,800
11,500
1,700
1,600
5,000
6,200
6,100
1,800
14,900
3,400
11,500

56,800
41,800
7,900
4,400
3,500
48,900
11,900
1,600
1,500
4,900
6,200
6,100
1,700
15,000
3,400
11,600

55,100
40,100
7,400
4,400
3,000
47,700
11,300
1,600
1,500
4,800
6,100
5,800
1,600
15,000
3,500
11,500

2.6
2.8
-2.6
-6.4
3.4
3.5
3.7
6.7
-11.8
20.0
-1.6
7.4
-5.9
2.0
6.1
0.9

2.0
2.5
-4.6
-9.1
3.6
3.1
0.7
20.4
-2.1
18.5
0.3
5.1
1.0
0.6
2.6
-0.0

203,229
154,962
19,770
28,497
9,811
40,595
3,185

166,014
119,404
19,309
27,301
9,551
37,414
5,216

176,693
129,228
20,055
27,409
9,543
30,411
5,714

188,129
134,181
21,543
32,406
10,190
36,407
5,969

...
...
...
27,256
8,260
...
...

4.0
-0.1
4.6
16.8
4.4
-16.7
15.8

4.7
1.6
6.0
22.2
8.9
-10.7
2.2

62
36

53
53

58
58

55
55

36
34

-29.4
-33.3

-38.2
-39.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

18,200
16,850
1,350
7.4

18,525
17,225
1,300
7.0

18,275
17,150
1,125
6.2

18,125
17,075
1,050
5.8

17,975
17,050
925
5.1

5.9
5.9
5.7
-0.2

4.7
4.6
5.6
0.8

15,225
11,425
1,025
14,200
6,400
4,000
3,800
1,425
2,375

15,250
11,475
1,025
14,225
6,450
4,000
3,775
1,425
2,350

15,325
11,500
1,025
14,300
6,475
4,000
3,825
1,450
2,375

15,225
11,425
1,000
14,225
6,500
3,925
3,800
1,425
2,375

15,150
11,350
975
14,175
6,450
3,925
3,800
1,450
2,350

4.3
4.1
5.4
4.2
7.9
-1.9
4.8
5.5
4.4

3.5
2.8
-2.0
3.9
8.0
-3.0
5.4
5.9
5.1

61,698
49,942
4,574
7,182
2,473
9,212
1,293

35,371
25,127
4,185
6,059
2,120
9,426
1,494

40,294
30,654
4,065
5,574
1,941
7,606
2,128

44,648
33,457
4,633
6,558
2,062
12,726
1,874

...
...
...
5,839
1,770
...
...

-5.3
-7.0
-2.9
-7.9
-17.7
45.9
36.7

-1.2
-3.7
4.8
9.8
-2.3
-19.4
24.0

15
15

20
20

18
18

9
9

19
19

-52.5
-48.6

-42.3
-41.5

57,575
54,775
2,800
4.9

58,325
55,400
2,925
5.0

57,650
55,025
2,625
4.6

57,775
55,275
2,500
4.3

57,600
55,375
2,225
3.9

2.0
1.8
6.0
3.9

0.8
0.8
0.9
-0.0

37,825
25,525
3,175
2,275
900
34,650
7,000
550
925
4,725
4,200
4,075
875
12,300
4,750
7,550

37,500
25,300
3,125
2,250
875
34,375
6,900
550
925
4,750
4,150
4,025
875
12,200
4,800
7,400

37,625
25,275
3,125
2,225
900
34,500
6,750
550
950
4,775
4,175
4,075
875
12,350
4,800
7,550

37,825
25,450
3,100
2,225
875
34,725
6,775
525
950
4,850
4,175
4,175
900
12,375
4,850
7,525

37,750
25,400
3,075
2,200
875
34,675
6,750
525
950
4,825
4,175
4,250
850
12,350
4,875
7,475

-0.2
-1.2
-0.8
-4.3
9.4
-0.1
-1.8
0.0
-13.6
-2.0
1.8
2.4
-8.1
1.9
4.3
0.3

-0.8
-1.6
-7.3
-12.8
10.8
-0.2
1.7
19.9
-9.5
-5.3
0.9
1.5
-9.2
0.8
-0.9
1.9

110,158
84,748
10,493
14,918
5,136
25,314
2,724

82,470
57,872
13,658
10,940
3,827
18,677
3,502

89,069
66,007
10,295
12,766
4,445
18,108
4,003

95,560
68,094
11,416
16,049
5,047
27,862
4,752

...
...
...
15,703
4,759
...
...

-0.8
-2.4
-3.1
0.1
-10.5
2.0
9.0

3.3
1.5
3.3
12.7
0.9
4.2
18.6

18
18

23
23

38
38

35
35

24
24

-51.0
-51.0

-32.3
-32.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

461.1
441.5
19.6
4.4

457.7
437.1
20.6
4.1

458.7
440.6
18.1
3.9

459.2
441.5
17.7
3.9

458.8
442.5
16.3
3.8

0.6
0.3
9.4
8.6

1.0
0.9
2.9
2.2

385.9
2.0
25.7
27.8
12.1
10.0
46.3
9.2
5.7
16.8
52.6
54.8
4.8
6.2
28.9
14.9
10.8
69.4
42.6

375.7
2.0
25.0
27.5
12.1
10.3
44.9
9.1
5.7
16.3
51.4
54.0
4.5
5.8
28.4
14.6
10.6
65.6
38.8

381.2
2.0
24.8
27.2
12.1
10.4
43.9
9.2
5.7
16.3
52.0
54.3
5.2
5.9
28.7
14.8
10.6
70.2
43.4

381.2
2.0
24.7
27.0
12.1
10.4
43.7
9.1
5.7
16.3
52.1
54.7
5.2
6.0
29.0
15.1
10.7
69.5
42.9

381.1
2.0
24.4
26.9
12.0
10.4
43.6
9.2
5.7
16.3
51.7
54.3
5.5
6.0
29.0
14.9
10.8
70.4
43.8

-1.5
17.6
-7.6
-1.5
3.4
6.1
-2.7
0.0
-6.6
-12.4
-0.6
0.7
-1.8
-16.7
1.0
-6.3
3.8
1.7
1.2

-0.4
18.3
-8.2
-0.4
5.6
3.9
0.2
-1.0
-9.4
-5.8
2.5
2.2
-6.1
-14.3
0.6
-3.5
3.7
1.4
-0.1

1,182,042
824,313
150,413
115,636
91,679
194,929
19,900

918,680
562,269
152,781
118,324
85,307
164,020
27,328

967,970
603,074
153,284
124,185
87,427
168,729
43,500

1,083,271
686,680
153,407
140,487
102,697
178,558
34,029

...
...
...
...
99,134
...
...

0.0
-3.0
5.9
-0.1
12.0
-21.7
-26.7

1.1
-1.6
6.5
1.0
16.4
-2.5
-8.2

241
221
20

484
188
296

244
227
18

444
312
132

376
346
31

-37.7
-40.7
48.2

-26.2
-35.7
134.0

193,643
753
257,162

158,272
594
266,451

186,130
710
262,155

233,208
900
259,120

246,878
973
253,729

-32.8
-26.2
-8.9

-23.7
-24.1
0.1

359,108
20,972

354,066
22,064

391,868
20,053

439,004
20,932

384,833
18,975

-2.2
-6.7

5.3
-2.0

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

I
2008

995.8
1.5
3.4
2.0
4.1

1,000.7
1.5
3.5
2.0
3.4

1,005.1
1.6
3.5
2.0
2.8

1,009.2
1.6
3.5
2.0
2.5

1,013.2
1.6
3.6
2.0
2.5

1.8
6.5
3.2
0.8
-38.8

2.0
12.5
4.6
-0.9
-36.3

31,306
20,915
2,367
162
6,812
5,784
31,438

31,724
21,125
2,391
162
6,916
5,912
31,701

32,086
21,295
2,411
163
6,993
6,047
31,924

32,384
21,420
2,427
164
7,036
6,190
32,089

32,689
21,554
2,444
165
7,081
6,334
32,262

4.4
3.1
3.3
2.3
4.0
9.5
2.6

6.0
4.9
5.0
3.3
6.9
8.9
3.9

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2007

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

2,080.3
2,001.1
79.2
4.0

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

APR
2008

2,086.8
2,002.5
84.3
3.6

2,078.8
2,005.0
73.8
3.5

2,080.8
2,007.5
73.3
3.5

2,070.0
2,003.3
66.7
3.4

1.7
1.4
11.2
9.7

1.9
1.8
3.1
1.0

1,928.0
3.1
158.2
108.9
38.2
15.3
26.8
89.7
241.8
9.1
57.9
31.5
111.5
40.6
325.5
34.2
176.0
26.0
29.6
134.9
70.0
22.5
230.2
123.2

1,896.0
3.2
153.4
108.3
38.2
15.3
26.7
89.4
234.7
9.0
56.7
30.9
111.1
39.5
317.8
33.5
175.8
25.9
29.3
131.1
69.7
21.8
228.2
121.7

1,909.3
3.2
152.3
108.5
38.1
15.3
26.8
89.1
232.7
9.1
56.6
31.1
111.3
39.6
320.9
34.3
177.8
27.0
29.8
134.0
71.4
21.8
232.0
124.5

1,914.3
3.4
151.6
108.3
38.1
15.3
26.8
89.4
232.3
9.1
56.5
31.3
111.0
39.7
322.4
34.6
179.0
27.4
29.8
136.1
72.0
21.8
231.8
124.2

1,911.5
3.4
148.6
108.3
38.0
15.1
26.9
89.4
232.2
9.1
56.4
31.1
110.6
39.6
322.2
34.5
179.4
27.4
29.8
136.7
71.8
22.1
232.0
124.3

-0.2
13.3
-12.7
-1.9
-4.0
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.4
3.4
-2.8
-0.6
-4.4
-1.0
-0.8
5.2
5.3
4.6
-0.7
2.4
1.8
2.8
5.4
7.0

0.6
10.7
-8.7
-2.4
-4.0
1.8
-0.8
1.6
1.6
3.7
-0.2
-0.6
-2.0
-0.2
0.1
1.8
4.8
5.6
1.4
2.3
-0.5
1.0
6.0
7.8

5,541,356
3,933,420
655,430
512,656
439,851
1,231,299
104,197

4,341,514
2,674,301
657,939
589,237
420,038
1,118,964
156,361

4,542,712
2,855,886
660,107
601,554
425,166
1,020,661
205,598

5,042,788
3,236,911
660,634
647,729
497,514
1,124,723
199,845

...
...
...
...
483,640
...
...

-3.2
-6.9
4.6
-2.1
8.1
-19.1
-6.2

-0.1
-3.0
6.3
0.6
12.8
-9.1
1.6

1,236
975
93
167

1,922
1,055
51
816

1,416
1,096
83
237

1,611
1,233
23
355

2,224
1,345
59
821

-30.1
-51.2
-9.4
127.5

-33.9
-42.4
8.7
-1.4

1,068,799
3,412
313,247

911,022
2,907
313,389

1,009,163
3,445
292,936

1,262,332
4,303
293,361

1,352,722
4,875
277,481

-26.8
-11.8
-17.0

-32.4
-27.7
-7.2

3,246,141
45,250

3,320,307
45,403

3,299,670
43,490

3,872,745
45,935

3,513,114
43,517

-2.6
-4.9

0.7
-2.1

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
I
2007

II
2007

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
4,188.7
4,218.3
Natural Increase
10.9
11.2
Births
17.6
17.8
Deaths
6.7
6.6
Net Migration
24.4
18.5
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
145,453
147,030
Earnings by Place of Work
116,670
117,735
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
12,946
13,047
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-210
-214
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
23,118
23,271
Plus: Transfer Payments
18,822
19,285
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
34,725
34,855
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2007

IV
2007

I
2008

4,244.5
11.3
17.9
6.6
14.9

4,269.5
11.3
18.0
6.6
13.7

4,293.9
11.3
18.1
6.7
13.0

2.5
3.6
2.6
1.0
-46.6

3.1
8.2
4.0
-2.5
-49.8

148,280
118,563
13,129
-215
23,319
19,742
34,934

149,173
119,155
13,196
-215
23,244
20,186
34,939

150,126
119,806
13,272
-215
23,181
20,626
34,963

3.2
2.7
2.5
-2.0
0.3
9.6
0.7

5.3
4.8
4.4
-12.2
4.0
9.9
2.2

6,427.1
14.3
25.6
11.2
34.4

6,475.8
14.6
25.7
11.1
34.2

6,519.0
14.4
25.7
11.4
23.2

6,556.3
13.8
25.5
11.7
23.2

6,593.2
14.2
25.8
11.6
22.6

2.6
-1.2
1.0
3.9
-34.3

2.9
-1.7
0.2
2.6
-32.7

206,399
155,602
17,479
725
34,860
32,692

207,345
155,482
17,445
724
35,593
32,992

210,733
157,459
17,677
733
36,590
33,629

212,920
158,795
17,793
739
37,158
34,024

214,704
160,118
18,060
745
37,133
34,772

4.0
2.9
3.3
2.8
6.5
6.4

5.5
4.3
4.6
4.6
7.9
8.4

115,197
24,508
15,827
98
15,730
32,114
42,547

115,011
24,597
15,827
142
15,685
32,018
42,475

116,533
24,958
15,734
144
15,589
32,326
42,943

117,614
25,210
15,643
187
15,457
32,476
43,307

118,675
25,471
...
...
...
32,565
...

3.0
3.9
-0.6
48.4
-1.0
1.4
3.9

4.8
4.6
-1.0
29.5
-1.3
2.6
4.5

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

FEB
2008

MAR
2008

748,988
53,691
269,407
425,890
229,100
34,588
181,708
12,804

677,406
52,854
214,995
409,557
240,166
43,494
176,660
20,012

830,893
68,903
233,528
528,462
316,938
55,664
230,877
30,397

1,407,062
143,427
524,704
738,931
605,095
66,470
474,666
63,959

1,559,482
142,038
548,925
868,519
472,804
39,766
386,498
46,540

-5.9
-12.7
-10.2
-1.7
45.0
-4.0
64.7
-6.9

0.4
-2.2
1.1
0.3
11.7
0.5
15.7
3.2

678,659
2,200,547
755,000

577,426
1,860,313
709,773

573,898
2,138,398
664,099

633,871
1,989,903
719,694

603,818
1,909,541
692,154

-12.0
-3.1
-5.1

13.4
2.0
-3.7

210.0
205.8

211.1
206.7

211.7
207.3

213.5
209.1

214.8
210.7

3.9
4.2

3.4
3.5

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

APR
2008

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

3,067.4
2,935.5
131.9
4.2

MAR
2008

APR
2008

3,075.4
2,936.5
138.9
4.3

3,063.3
2,941.5
121.8
4.0

3,066.4
2,946.6
119.8
4.0

3,053.9
2,942.7
111.2
3.9

1.7
1.5
9.8
5.4

1.7
1.7
2.9
-0.4

2,693.5
12.2
211.6
145.2
19.8
41.6
27.6
35.4
109.2
342.6
12.7
73.7
42.8
128.0
52.7
403.4
45.3
265.8
35.5
47.8
192.2
96.0
53.2
388.2
209.7
41.5

2,647.1
12.3
205.8
144.4
19.7
41.6
27.6
35.2
108.5
333.7
12.7
72.7
42.2
127.4
51.5
394.4
42.7
266.2
35.2
47.0
187.9
95.3
52.2
379.8
201.9
40.7

2,669.3
12.3
204.5
144.3
19.8
41.6
27.5
35.5
108.0
330.6
12.6
72.5
42.5
127.5
51.8
398.5
44.0
267.9
36.5
47.7
191.1
97.5
52.3
391.7
212.8
41.3

2,675.7
12.4
203.4
143.9
19.8
41.5
27.5
35.5
108.3
330.8
12.6
72.4
42.5
127.4
51.8
400.4
44.4
269.6
37.4
48.1
193.6
98.0
52.6
390.6
211.8
40.4

2,671.1
12.5
200.2
143.8
19.7
41.4
27.5
35.0
107.6
330.9
12.6
72.1
42.3
127.0
51.6
400.2
43.9
269.5
37.5
48.3
194.4
97.4
53.1
391.2
212.5
...

-0.2
16.8
-11.5
-2.0
-1.0
-3.9
1.1
-0.8
-0.5
0.7
-0.8
-1.6
-0.9
-5.3
-1.5
-0.4
0.5
4.5
3.6
-1.4
0.8
0.2
2.3
4.4
5.9
-2.2

0.5
14.9
-8.8
-2.4
1.3
-4.6
2.7
-0.7
1.0
1.8
1.3
0.0
-0.9
-2.4
-0.3
0.3
0.1
4.5
4.5
0.8
1.0
-1.1
1.0
4.6
5.7
0.3

18.56
15.87
14.43
11.91
19.48

18.88
16.13
14.60
12.11
19.29

18.69
16.15
14.87
12.23
19.84

18.70
16.25
15.12
12.59
19.80

...
...
...
...
...

8.3
7.3
2.9
2.5
3.1

7.8
5.7
3.1
0.9
5.1

8,026,826
5,612,348
979,006
744,644
690,828
237,831
633,669
306,552
87,901
334,755
1,676,958
90,692
158,135

6,303,714
3,846,997
992,191
814,140
650,385
227,535
818,286
303,389
87,107
364,509
1,506,670
105,634
215,378

6,598,479
4,108,052
995,460
838,392
656,575
228,589
791,117
306,832
144,340
325,560
1,396,216
146,354
286,438

7,362,034
4,662,380
996,255
923,101
780,297
245,361
565,263
323,549
130,789
355,850
1,550,517
171,597
285,174

...
...
...
...
749,562
227,167
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.7
-5.3
5.6
-1.0
7.0
-4.4
-3.3
7.3
-0.9
-0.5
-18.3
23.8
-6.6

0.4
-2.5
6.4
1.0
12.8
0.9
7.0
3.0
6.2
3.3
-8.3
-9.0
1.7

1,745
1,444
104
197

2,731
1,549
54
1,128

2,200
1,827
127
247

2,473
1,884
41
547

2,980
2,048
93
839

-30.6
-46.2
-26.4
131.4

-34.8
-41.5
-13.8
1.4

992
744
23
224

967
711
27
229

1,074
803
24
247

1,414
1,093
23
297

1,552
1,234
25
293

98.5
106.4
66.7
73.4

67.8
68.2
60.1
67.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

FEB
2008

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

I
2008

209.2
203.8
198.9

212.6
207.7
203.2

212.6
208.2
203.6

214.5
209.7
205.3

216.9
212.1
207.7

3.7
4.1
4.4

3.3
3.3
3.4

118.8
116.1

119.5
117.3

119.8
117.9

120.6
119.0

121.3
120.0

2.2
3.4

2.5
2.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

Eller College of Management
To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:

Dean........................................................................Paul R. Portney
Vice Dean ................................................................Stanley Reynolds
Director of Marketing and Communications ............Julie S. Krell

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/.
Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research
Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by
The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications,
McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108.

Economic and Business Research Center:
Main phone/fax ......................................................520.621.2155
fax: 520.621.2150
Director ..................................................................Marshall J. Vest
520.621.4075
Senior Research Economist ....................................Alberta Charney, Ph.D.
520.621.2291
Computer Database Specialist ................................Pia Montoya
520.621.2523
Research Economist & Database Manager ..............Lora Mwaniki-Lyman
520.626.6439
Senior Economist & Webmaster..............................Maile Nadelhoffer
520.621.4050
Senior Research Economist ....................................Pat Patton, Ph.D.
520.626.0011
Senior Regional Scientist ........................................Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D.
520.626.0520
State Data Center & Librarian ..................................Valorie Hanni Rice
520.621.2109

Arizona’s Economy also is available online at: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/.
As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the
people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic
data and objective forecasts and analyses.
Copyright 2008 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication
may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The
University of Arizona.
Printing and mailing costs for Arizona’s Economy are covered by private sponsorship
and not at tax-payer expense.

Thank you to our partners for their ongoing sponsorship of Economic and Business Research Center programs.
Arizona’s Economy Sponsor:

Forecasting Project Sponsors:
Arizona Department of Commerce

City of Mesa

Maricopa County

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee

City of Tempe

Pascua Yaqui Tribe

Arizona Public Service Company

City of Tucson

Pima Association of Governments

Bascom Arizona Ventures, LLC

Compass Bank

Pima County

Beach, Fleischman & Co., P.C.

Cox Communications

Salt River Project

CB Richard Ellis

Elliott D. Pollack and Company

Tucson Electric Power Company

Central Arizona Association of Governments

KB Home

Tucson Newspapers

Chase

Lippow Development Company

Tucson Regional Economic Opportunities, Inc.

City of Glendale

Maricopa Association of Governments

Website Sponsor:

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

15.

How Confident is Arizona Business?
Covering six key financial measures, along with a
topical issue each quarter, the Arizona Business
Leaders Confidence Index® (BLCI) sums up the
expectations of hundreds of the state’s leading
executive decision makers. The BLCI is a collaborative
effort between Compass Bank and The University of
Arizona’s Eller College of Management to provide local
and relevant information to Arizona’s business leaders.
Please log on at www.blci.com/arizona/ and register to
become a BLCI panelist. It only takes a few minutes and
you’ll be notified by email when the next survey opens
on September 1st.
With increased participation from business leaders like
you, the BLCI will become a more valuable planning tool
for the Arizona business community. Plus, when you
participate, you receive an exclusive preview of survey
results before they are released to the general public.
Join today!

PRSRT STD
US POSTAGE
P A I D
TUCSON, ARIZONA

Economic and Business Research Center
Eller College of Management
McClelland Hall 103
PO Box 210108
Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108

PERMIT NO. 190

Change of address, please email: ebrpublications@eller.arizona.edu

Vol. 29, No. 3
Arizona’s Economy is published quarterly free of charge.
CHANGE SERVICE REQUESTED