A P R I L

Arizona is Leading
During This Downturn
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
March 1, 2008

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
defines recession as follows: “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across
the economy, lasting more than a few months,
normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail
sales. A recession begins just after the economy
reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak,
the economy is in an expansion.”
So, in order to qualify as a recession, the economy has to decline (shrink, contract) a significant
amount, last at least several months, and permeate
throughout the economy. Depth, duration, and dispersion (3-Ds) are all required.

Many forecasters have revised their

first half of 2008. Arizona’s economy began
contracting last August as the downdraft
from the collapsing homebuilding industry
pulled the rest of the economy along for
the ride. Normally, Arizona lags behind the
nation at cycle peaks, and reaches bottom
at about the same time. It may take
Arizona longer to stabilize this time, due to
the nature of this cycle. The good news is
the downturn should be shallow and
similar to the 2001 recession.

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

•

S P R I N G

I S S U E

recession could be over! They waited until
November 26, 2001 to officially identify January
2001 as the peak month. Then on July 17, 2003,
they announced that the recession had ended in
November 2001. So, at this point, use of the “R”
word is just a forecast.
Recent economic reports for the nation have
been weak and decidedly downbeat in January.
Vehicle sales were sharply lower and chain
store sales were the worst in the history of the
series, dating back into the 1970s. Employment
registered its first decline, 17,000, since the
last recession. The stock market continued to
sell off and has now lost enough to be officially
designated as a bear market. A Federal Reserve
survey of bank lending practices showed credit

EXHIBIT 1
National Recession Chronology

forecasts to include a short and mild
recession for the U.S. economy during the

2 0 0 8

Peak
Apr. 1960
Dec. 1969
Nov. 1973
Jan. 1980
Jul. 1981
Jul. 1990
Mar. 2001

Trough
Feb. 1961
Nov. 1970
Mar. 1975
Jul. 1980
Nov. 1982
Mar. 1991
Nov. 2001
AVERAGE

Since 1960, the U.S. economy has experienced
seven recessions (Exhibit 1). On average, they last
11 months. The longest lasted 16 months (twice,
1974-75 and 1981-82), the shortest only six
months (1980). The two most recent both measured eight months. As for real GDP, the largest
decline was 3.1% during the 1974-75 recession.
The smallest drop was 2001’s decline of only 0.4%.
The average drop in real GDP over the seven downturns is 1.7%.
As 2007 came to an end, the U.S. economy may
have entered a recession, but it will be several more
months before NBER can say for sure. It appears
from several measures that the U.S. economy is now
contracting, but will it decline far enough or last
long enough to qualify as a recession? Time will tell.
It will likely be the end of this year before NBER
identifies the peak month – and by that time the

www.eb r.eller .ar izona.e du

# Months
10
11
16
6
16
8
8
10.7

Drop RGDP
1.6%
0.6%
3.1%
2.2%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
1.7%

tightening very sharply and broadly. Finally, the
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index
for the service sector collapsed in January.
The spate of dismal reports touched off near
panic in Washington. The Fed cut the “fed
funds” rate by 1-1/4 points in late January, and
Congress sped a $168 billion stimulus package
through the often-lengthy legislative approval
process.
Many forecasters in recent weeks revised
their forecasts to now show a mild recession
lasting through the first half of this year. They
point to timely monetary and fiscal stimulus
as the reason for a short and mild recession.
They note though the possibility of a
double-dip recession early next year
as the stimulus fades.

Is Arizona Leading In This Cycle?
Arizona’s economy is one of the most cyclical in
the nation as measured by the difference between
growth during expansions and recessions. The difference has less to due with losses during recessionary times than to explosive growth during
good times. The volatility is due to swings in residential and nonresidential investment, which have
an “accelerator effect” on the economy.
This is best understood by realizing that in a
growing economy, resources need to be devoted to
building infrastructure (new houses, offices, grocery stores, roads, etc.). When the economy slows,
fewer resources (construction workers, cement,
steel, brokers, mortgage lenders, etc.) are needed.
That is, the resources that are tied to growth need
to shrink! And if the economy stops growing, there
is no need for these resources at all. But as this
segment of the economy shrinks, there is less
demand throughout the economy, and that means
slower growth, which means less needed
resources, which means slower growth, etc. In
short, the investment component has an accelerator effect on the overall economy.
Since Arizona has such rapid underlying economic
growth, a large portion of its economy is devoted
this investment function, and that makes Arizona’s
economy one of the most volatile in the nation.
The current business cycle was first and foremost caused by an inventory cycle in residential
housing. The credit cycle came later as a result of
the housing inventory problem. High energy prices
also are contributing a third shock effect.
With this in mind, it’s clear that Arizona, along
with a handful of other states (California, Nevada,
and Florida) that have a large proportion of their
economies related to growth, is leading during this
cycle downturn. The question is whether it will lead
at the trough as well. So far there is no indication
that the investment cycle has reached bottom.
Inventories of resale homes listed on the MLS,
as measured by months supply, are still increasing
– nearly 12 months in Tucson and almost 15 months
in metro Phoenix. Until supplies fall toward the
“normal” four to five months, homebuilding will
remain depressed. Housing prices will need to fall

back to where they were at the end of 2004 to
return to “trend.” That could be attained by the end
of this year given the recent free fall of prices.

Recent Evidence, AZ
Current data for Arizona is consistent with a contracting economy. Seasonally adjusted employment,
benchmarked to second quarter UI data, peaked in
August of 2007 and through the end of the year
lost 7,500 jobs, a decline of 0.3%. Employment is
now declining in construction, manufacturing,
information, employment services, financial activi-

ties, and transportation and warehousing. Official
revisions will be released in March and are expected to be revised significantly downward (and close
to our own benchmarking efforts).
Unemployment insurance claims continue to
surge, and Arizona’s unemployment rate jumped by
1.2 percentage points in the final two months of
the year. That puts Arizona’s unemployment rate at
4.7% — only three-tenths lower than nationwide.
Retail sales in nominal terms peaked in January
2007. After declining sharply last spring, sales leveled off in recent months. With data through

EXHIBIT 2
Arizona Job Growth During National Recessions
Peak

Trough

Apr. 1960
Dec. 1969
Nov. 1973
Jan. 1980
Jul. 1981
Jul. 1990
Mar. 2001

Feb. 1961
Nov. 1970
Mar. 1975
Jul. 1980
Nov. 1982
Mar. 1991
Nov. 2001
AVERAGE

Chg. Nonfarm Jobs
000s
%
7.2
2.2
14.3
2.7
-15.8
-2.1
-4.4
-0.4
-19.1
-1.8
7.5
0.5
-24.3
-1.2
-4.9
0.0

EXHIBIT 3
New Job Gains Equal Losses
Employment Dynamics, Arizona
000s

(seasonally adjusted quarterly rate)

Arizona’s economy once was insulated from
the effects of national recession. That’s no longer the case.
2.

November, sales have fallen 2.5% during the past
12 months.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index for
Arizona plunged as 2007 came to an end. Both
production and orders components are now below
50. The last time that happened was during the
2001 recession.
Business bankruptcies (as well as personal filings) are now moving higher after tightening of
bankruptcy laws a couple years ago and strong
economic growth drove filings to decade-low levels. Chapter 11 reorganizations are now back at
levels last seen in 2003.
Arizona consumer confidence, published by
Behavior Research Center, plunged in their recent
survey to mirror the large declines in nationwide
confidence. The Arizona measure is now collected
only twice per year rather than quarterly as in
prior years. At a reading of 80, confidence now
stands at the lowest readings since the end of
2003, during the “jobless recovery.”

What’s the Best Single Indicator?
Nonfarm employment is perhaps the best single
indicator for state and local economies. How did
this measure perform during past recessions
(Exhibit 2)? During the 1960-61 and 1970 reces-

sions, employment increased by 2.2% and 2.7%,
respectively, reflecting the fact that Arizona’s
economy was at that time insulated from the
effects of national recession. That’s no longer the
case as Arizona’s economy has grown and diversified significantly. During the 1974-75 recession,
nonfarm jobs declined 2.1%, the largest ever
recorded. Another large decline occurred during
the 1981-82 recession when a loss of 1.8% was
experienced. The 1990-91 recession saw jobs
increase once again, by 0.5%. Then a decline of
1.2% occurred during the last recession of 2001.
In the recessions where jobs declined, Arizona
lagged behind each cycle peak, i.e., the peak in
Arizona came later than nationwide – by an average of four months. Timing at the low point was
much closer, averaging less than a one month lag.
This means that periods of contraction in Arizona
have been shorter — by about three months.

Business Employment Dynamics
The U.S. Department of Labor recently began
compiling data for states that shows dynamic labor
market flows that underlie net changes in aggregate employment levels. These new data track the
number of private sector jobs gained from opening
and expanding establishments and the number lost

EXHIBIT 4
Jobs Trimmed in Existing Firms Move Higher
Employment Dynamics, Arizona
000s

(seasonally adjusted quarterly rate)

at contracting and closing establishments.
Normally, job gains exceed job losses (except
during recessions). For example, during the rapid
growth experienced in 2005, Arizona’s net change
averaged nearly 34,000 jobs per quarter (175,000
jobs added, 141,000 lost). During the last recession
in 2001, job losses exceeded job gains with over
13,000 jobs lost (net) on average per quarter. For
the past three quarters (4Q2006 – 2Q2007) job
gains and losses have been nearly equal (Exhibit 3).
The second quarter of 2007 is the most recent
period for which the business dynamics data is available. It is based on unemployment insurance filings,
which have a reporting lag of six months or more.
The data also show that roughly 3.5 times the
number of new jobs is created in existing firms
rather than in new firm openings. For example, on
average in 2005, existing firms added 134,000 versus 40,000 in new firms per quarter. A similar relationship also exists for firms that are shrinking
their workforce. Over the past year-and-a-half the
number of jobs being trimmed in existing firms has
moved significantly higher (Exhibit 4).

The Outlook
The current contraction in the nation’s economy
is likely to stretch past mid year and qualify as the
8th recession since 1960. Due to the monetary and
fiscal stimulus being injected into the system, this
recession should last eight months, give or take a
couple, and be milder than average. Global Insight,
a world-wide leader in economic forecasting, is
forecasting a decline in real GDP comparable to
the 2001 recession at less than 0.4%.
The recession in Arizona also should be mild
with job losses totaling 1.3%. However, we expect
that it will last longer than average, given the
nature of this downturn and the length of time
expected to get residential and nonresidential
investment rolling again. We look for the bottom
in the second quarter of 2009.
For a period of nearly three years during and following the 2001 recession, it seemed as though
the bad times would never end (remember the
“jobless” recovery?). Look for a repeat of that experience. 2008 will be remembered as the year you
want to forget, and it will be late 2009 before the
good times start rolling once again. ■

Roughly 3.5 times the number of new jobs is created in
existing firms rather than in new firm openings.
3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2006
197,009.0
8.9
41,598
4.6
80,861.6
8.2
6,305.2
4.3
65,430
-28.2
2,638.6
5.2
436.2
6.3
2,202.4
5.0
511.2
4.6
394.5
7.8
266.4
4.8
410.0
1.7

2007
209,929.9
6.6
43,308
4.1
83,048.3
2.7
6,522.4
3.4
49,827
-23.8
2,688.8
1.9
418.6
-4.0
2,270.2
3.1
525.3
2.8
406.9
3.1
274.0
2.8
419.5
2.3

2008
216,641.2
3.2
44,608
3.0
84,372.0
1.6
6,691.6
2.6
39,029
-21.7
2,672.9
-0.6
384.5
-8.2
2,288.5
0.8
519.7
-1.1
406.0
-0.2
274.3
0.1
424.9
1.3

2009
223,258.5
3.1
45,807
2.7
86,583.6
2.6
6,839.5
2.2
44,732
14.6
2,663.6
-0.3
354.2
-7.9
2,309.6
0.9
516.7
-0.6
403.0
-0.7
279.6
1.9
428.3
0.8

2010
235,797.0
5.6
47,265
3.2
90,739.3
4.8
7,000.6
2.4
62,408
39.5
2,717.3
2.0
355.5
0.4
2,362.0
2.3
526.4
1.9
410.0
1.7
289.4
3.5
433.8
1.3

2011
255,016.8
8.2
49,068
3.8
96,870.7
6.8
7,194.3
2.8
77,337
23.9
2,831.1
4.2
379.6
6.8
2,451.6
3.8
550.7
4.6
429.7
4.8
302.6
4.5
440.8
1.6

2012
278,753.5
9.3
51,138
4.2
104,547.0
7.9
7,413.8
3.1
87,509
13.2
2,972.3
5.0
408.7
7.7
2,563.8
4.6
580.5
5.4
456.4
6.2
315.8
4.4
450.8
2.3

138,751.6
10.4
47,207
4.1
56,337.1
8.3
4,092.6
5.1
44,280
-29.3
1,892.7
5.9
323.2
6.8
1,569.6
5.7
379.8
4.9
320.7
8.0
182.3
7.0
230.7
2.3

149,004.1
7.4
49,515
4.9
58,068.9
3.1
4,235.2
3.5
36,963
-16.5
1,923.3
1.6
309.8
-4.1
1,613.7
2.8
388.4
2.3
330.8
3.2
189.3
3.9
235.9
2.2

153,641.2
3.1
51,195
3.4
58,826.7
1.3
4,346.3
2.6
29,329
-20.7
1,911.1
-0.6
276.2
-10.8
1,634.9
1.3
384.7
-1.0
340.0
2.8
189.9
0.3
239.1
1.3

159,060.6
3.5
52,971
3.5
60,175.4
2.3
4,460.3
2.6
34,768
18.5
1,906.5
-0.2
263.0
-4.8
1,643.5
0.5
383.4
-0.3
333.5
-1.9
194.0
2.2
241.8
1.2

168,953.7
6.2
54,951
3.7
64,104.0
6.5
4,591.6
2.9
45,733
31.5
1,948.3
2.2
266.1
1.2
1,682.2
2.4
393.2
2.6
334.1
0.2
201.7
4.0
246.9
2.1

183,470.9
8.6
57,108
3.9
69,594.0
8.6
4,743.1
3.3
57,791
26.4
2,038.7
4.6
287.9
8.2
1,750.9
4.1
413.0
5.0
346.6
3.8
211.5
4.9
253.1
2.5

200,303.8
9.2
59,413
4.0
75,397.9
8.3
4,904.0
3.4
61,381
6.2
2,144.8
5.2
304.8
5.9
1,840.1
5.1
434.8
5.3
370.7
6.9
221.0
4.5
260.3
2.9

29,054.2
8.8
39,586
3.9
11,636.2
6.0
981.3
2.5
8,315
-30.2
379.8
3.6
58.3
5.3
321.5
3.3
61.9
3.9
49.3
7.3
40.6
2.0
76.9
-0.2

31,239.5
7.5
41,502
4.8
12,105.8
4.0
1,003.2
2.2
5,574
-33.0
387.7
2.1
56.8
-2.6
330.9
2.9
63.9
3.3
51.9
5.4
42.1
3.7
77.5
0.7

32,309.4
3.4
42,823
3.2
12,277.0
1.4
1,022.6
1.9
4,436
-20.4
384.9
-0.7
52.8
-7.0
332.1
0.4
63.6
-0.4
53.0
2.0
41.6
-1.0
76.7
-1.0

33,715.3
4.4
43,859
2.4
12,653.9
3.1
1,044.6
2.1
6,263
41.2
387.1
0.6
51.5
-2.5
335.5
1.0
64.2
0.9
52.2
-1.4
42.5
2.1
76.9
0.2

35,988.2
6.7
45,088
2.8
13,379.6
5.7
1,070.7
2.5
8,654
38.2
398.0
2.8
53.6
4.0
344.4
2.6
65.9
2.6
52.8
1.1
44.3
4.1
78.1
1.6

38,849.9
8.0
46,674
3.5
14,273.5
6.7
1,099.2
2.7
10,447
20.7
414.0
4.0
57.1
6.6
356.9
3.6
68.3
3.7
54.8
3.9
46.5
5.0
79.6
1.9

41,906.9
7.9
48,536
4.0
15,222.8
6.7
1,127.7
2.6
10,417
-0.3
429.4
3.7
59.7
4.5
369.8
3.6
70.6
3.4
57.7
5.1
48.6
4.5
81.0
1.7

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

20,125
18,525
1,600
8.0

20,025
18,450
1,575
7.9

19,850
18,275
1,575
7.9

19,925
18,025
1,900
9.5

20,350
18,400
1,950
9.6

2.8
3.1
0.0
-2.7

-0.1
1.3
-12.1
-12.0

19,975
7,250
800
19,175
1,775
4,675
12,725
3,250
9,475

19,975
7,125
800
19,175
1,725
4,600
12,850
3,225
9,625

19,725
6,975
775
18,950
1,725
4,475
12,750
3,225
9,525

19,600
6,850
725
18,875
1,750
4,375
12,750
3,275
9,475

19,600
6,825
750
18,850
1,725
4,350
12,775
3,225
9,550

1.2
-0.4
20.0
0.5
-11.5
1.8
2.0
0.8
2.4

-2.0
-1.3
2.0
-2.2
-5.9
0.1
-2.4
0.3
-3.3

13,927
7,661
989
5,276
2,048
7,980
1,378

13,454
6,880
875
5,699
2,136
8,391
1,093

14,253
7,692
725
5,836
1,967
1,996
666

31,594
24,639*
621
6,334
2,181
8,246
947

...
...
...
5,389
1,885
...
...

160.9
243.5
-2.8
1.1
-19.1
90.9
30.3

15.2
29.6
-2.0
2.8
-4.2
20.1
3.6

39,100
36,800
2,300
5.9

38,600
36,200
2,400
6.2

38,275
35,850
2,425
6.3

38,625
35,800
2,825
7.3

39,175
36,100
3,075
7.8

3.8
3.0
13.9
9.7

1.6
2.5
-9.4
-10.9

30,750
19,950
3,700
2,850
850
27,050
5,900
800
550
1,300
3,600
3,450
650
10,800
1,775
9,025

30,300
19,500
3,650
2,800
850
26,650
5,775
800
575
1,250
3,600
3,175
675
10,800
1,700
9,100

30,025
19,175
3,575
2,750
825
26,450
5,900
800
575
1,225
3,625
2,825
650
10,850
1,700
9,150

30,275
19,175
3,525
2,700
825
26,750
5,875
825
600
1,250
3,650
2,800
650
11,100
1,750
9,350

29,925
18,900
3,475
2,675
800
26,450
5,725
825
625
1,250
3,575
2,775
650
11,025
1,625
9,400

1.4
-1.0
-6.7
-5.3
-11.1
2.6
0.4
3.1
4.2
-3.8
6.7
-0.9
-21.2
6.0
1.6
6.8

0.6
-0.1
-7.6
-7.2
-8.8
1.9
2.4
2.1
-5.2
3.3
5.5
2.9
-17.9
2.0
0.4
2.4

87,322
64,301
9,578
13,443
5,218
26,541
3,740

87,757
66,000
7,785
13,972
5,237
25,611
2,936

80,959
60,123
6,648
14,188
4,781
29,654
2,155

95,757
74,136
7,110
14,511
4,996
26,397
2,163

...
...
...
13,487
4,718
...
...

6.9
3.5
-0.5
28.4
2.8
21.8
-8.2

2.3
-0.0
5.5
15.2
6.1
15.2
2.1

31
31

30
30

22
22

14
14

15
15

-46.4
-42.3

-19.3
-20.0

* As reported by ADOR
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

14,750
14,150
600
4.1

14,675
14,075
600
4.1

14,900
14,250
650
4.4

14,925
14,150
775
5.2

15,150
14,275
875
5.8

12.6
11.3
40.0
24.3

6.8
7.4
-4.2
-10.8

8,725
5,775
1,300
7,425
1,625
2,850
2,950
400
2,550

8,625
5,675
1,250
7,375
1,625
2,800
2,950
400
2,550

8,800
5,775
1,275
7,525
1,650
2,850
3,025
375
2,650

8,750
5,750
1,275
7,475
1,650
2,825
3,000
375
2,625

8,625
5,800
1,300
7,325
1,625
2,875
2,825
375
2,450

8.8
9.4
48.6
3.9
6.6
-0.9
7.6
-6.3
10.1

7.2
8.5
47.8
2.8
-0.5
2.9
4.7
-5.9
6.7

25,695
20,484
2,343
2,867
1,113
4,694

27,254
21,593
2,133
3,528
1,322
4,453

27,392
21,844
2,084
3,463
1,167
4,283

30,641
24,816
2,438
3,387
1,166
5,790

...
...
...
1,998
699
...

8.6
5.8
7.2
-16.8
-33.4
-6.0

17.1
15.6
15.1
27.2
16.7
16.3

71,700
69,300
2,400
3.3

71,200
68,700
2,500
3.5

70,600
68,000
2,600
3.7

70,100
66,900
3,200
4.6

70,300
66,800
3,500
5.0

2.6
2.1
12.9
10.0

1.8
2.4
-10.9
-12.5

66,200
46,100
7,300
3,600
3,700
58,900
10,100
500
1,900
3,400
7,100
13,900
1,900
20,100
3,000
17,100

65,500
45,300
7,200
3,500
3,700
58,300
10,200
400
1,800
3,300
7,100
13,400
1,900
20,200
2,900
17,300

64,900
44,700
7,200
3,500
3,700
57,700
10,300
400
1,700
3,200
7,100
12,900
1,900
20,200
2,800
17,400

64,300
44,600
7,100
3,400
3,700
57,200
10,300
400
1,700
3,100
7,200
12,900
1,900
19,700
2,800
16,900

63,000
43,700
6,900
3,200
3,700
56,100
10,200
400
1,700
3,200
7,000
12,500
1,800
19,300
2,600
16,700

0.8
1.9
-2.8
-8.6
2.8
1.3
5.2
0.0
-5.6
-3.0
0.0
5.9
0.0
-1.5
-3.7
-1.2

0.8
1.2
-0.1
-3.2
3.0
0.9
2.1
-11.9
1.8
-5.0
-0.1
4.6
-1.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.1

145,638
91,951
31,098
22,589
8,768
42,031
25,022

142,910
89,881
30,024
23,005
8,623
39,519
22,012

127,157
78,522
25,459
23,177
7,810
38,095
13,216

142,138
95,892
24,407
21,838
7,518
36,150
12,121

...
...
...
19,416
6,793
...
...

-0.9
-4.7
-0.5
21.4
-2.8
5.2
3.5

1.0
-0.6
4.4
4.7
-2.5
9.1
8.8

25
25

25
25

22
22

19
19

29
29

-17.1
-12.1

-58.2
-40.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

4,250
4,125
125
2.9

4,225
4,100
125
3.0

4,275
4,150
125
2.9

4,275
4,125
150
3.5

4,350
4,175
175
4.0

12.3
12.1
16.7
3.9

8.0
8.5
-5.9
-12.9

4,900
4,350
3,775
1,125
250
325
550
50
500

4,975
4,400
3,825
1,150
250
325
575
50
525

4,975
4,450
3,850
1,125
275
325
525
25
500

5,025
4,475
3,900
1,125
250
325
550
25
525

5,000
4,475
3,900
1,100
250
325
525
25
500

12.4
13.3
14.7
4.8
0.0
8.3
5.0
0.0
5.3

11.3
12.1
17.2
-4.4
0.0
-19.9
5.3
-10.5
6.6

12,300
11,211
404
685
266
8,583
777

13,765
12,934
366
465
174
5,477
732

-2,672
-3,842
455
716
241
4,938
674

29,920
28,771
461
688
237
5,917
537

...
...
...
642
225
...
...

211.3
228.9
92.7
0.0
-19.9
-37.2
32.0

119.6
143.5
42.9
-2.8
-9.8
34.8
25.2

100,000
96,400
3,600
3.6

100,200
96,400
3,800
3.8

99,900
96,000
3,900
3.9

99,300
95,100
4,200
4.2

99,900
95,300
4,600
4.6

3.4
2.9
15.0
11.2

2.4
2.6
-3.5
-5.9

65,500
52,700
12,200
8,700
3,500
53,300
12,600
600
2,500
4,600
10,100
8,100
2,000
12,800
1,300
11,500

65,700
52,600
12,100
8,700
3,400
53,600
12,800
600
2,500
4,300
10,300
8,100
1,900
13,100
1,300
11,800

65,700
52,600
12,100
8,800
3,300
53,600
12,900
600
2,500
4,400
10,000
8,100
2,000
13,100
1,300
11,800

65,800
52,800
12,100
8,800
3,300
53,700
13,000
600
2,500
4,400
10,100
8,100
2,000
13,000
1,300
11,700

64,700
52,300
11,900
8,600
3,300
52,800
12,900
600
2,600
4,300
9,800
8,200
2,000
12,400
1,300
11,100

2.2
0.6
-0.8
1.2
-5.7
2.9
3.2
0.0
4.0
-10.4
1.0
3.8
0.0
9.7
8.3
9.9

1.3
-0.2
-4.7
-3.6
-7.4
2.8
2.0
0.0
2.7
-8.6
6.0
1.4
-3.9
8.6
4.2
9.2

167,308
124,967
24,180
18,161
7,049
58,102
9,260

170,032
125,695
23,911
20,426
7,656
56,416
11,090

170,633
128,431
20,826
21,377
7,203
55,829
8,668

195,996
152,026
23,042
20,929
7,205
45,811
6,881

...
...
...
19,094
6,680
...
...

-1.2
-2.7
-3.9
12.1
-10.2
-37.3
3.4

-0.3
-1.7
3.1
5.7
-2.1
-17.7
12.5

95
93

103
90

75
75

51
51

81
65

-33.1
-46.3

-50.7
-50.8

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

21,050
20,150
900
4.3

21,150
20,200
950
4.5

21,325
20,350
975
4.6

21,025
20,000
1,025
4.9

21,375
20,250
1,125
5.3

1.5
1.1
9.8
8.1

1.2
2.0
-13.6
-14.7

14,425
9,450
2,575
11,850
2,350
4,525
4,975
525
4,450

14,450
9,500
2,525
11,925
2,350
4,625
4,950
450
4,500

14,625
9,675
2,525
12,100
2,450
4,700
4,950
450
4,500

14,500
9,475
2,450
12,050
2,425
4,600
5,025
450
4,575

14,400
9,450
2,500
11,900
2,325
4,625
4,950
450
4,500

-0.3
-1.6
-4.8
0.6
0.0
-0.5
2.1
0.0
2.3

0.2
-0.8
0.1
0.3
0.7
-2.0
2.3
-5.6
3.2

37,156
25,417
5,097
6,642
2,578
9,032
1,409

38,345
26,038
4,972
7,335
2,749
14,342
1,307

35,101
23,227
4,364
7,510
2,530
10,469
930

38,909
27,489
4,605
6,815
2,346
8,177
875

...
...
...
6,851
2,397
...
...

-4.4
-7.8
-1.5
12.1
-10.3
-38.8
-0.2

3.0
0.5
2.1
13.4
5.2
0.2
13.5

91,900
87,500
4,400
4.8

92,300
87,700
4,600
5.0

92,800
88,200
4,600
5.0

92,900
87,800
5,100
5.5

94,500
88,900
5,600
5.9

1.8
0.7
24.4
22.2

-0.1
-0.5
9.4
9.4

53,700
44,900
9,200
44,500
35,700
5,700
11,600
1,000
2,600
3,700
7,400
6,800
2,600
8,800
500
8,300

54,000
45,200
9,200
44,800
36,000
5,700
11,700
1,000
2,600
3,700
7,600
6,700
2,700
8,800
500
8,300

54,100
45,300
9,100
45,000
36,200
5,600
11,800
1,000
2,600
3,900
7,600
6,600
2,700
8,800
500
8,300

54,200
45,400
9,200
45,000
36,200
5,600
12,000
1,000
2,600
3,800
7,600
6,500
2,700
8,800
500
8,300

53,800
45,100
9,100
44,700
36,000
5,600
11,800
900
2,600
4,000
7,300
6,500
2,900
8,700
500
8,200

-1.1
-2.2
-11.7
1.4
0.6
-13.8
-1.7
-10.0
0.0
5.3
0.0
-1.5
16.0
4.8
0.0
5.1

-2.1
-3.4
-15.1
1.2
0.3
-19.3
-0.4
-4.0
2.6
-3.3
4.1
-1.1
1.0
5.5
0.0
5.8

147,838
108,378
16,457
23,003
8,929
37,032
3,986

40,288
105
16,132
24,051
9,015
39,447
3,629

152,071
110,927
15,884
25,260
8,512
34,037
2,572

167,183
125,639
16,364
25,180
8,669
34,773
2,860

...
...
...
24,679
8,634
...
...

-10.3
-13.7
-12.4
14.6
-8.3
-34.6
6.7

-10.5
-14.6
1.5
3.7
-3.9
-28.1
-2.6

132
123

61
61

45
39

43
41

25
25

-80.5
-78.8

-54.7
-50.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

7,800
7,400
400
5.1

7,650
7,250
400
5.2

7,775
7,350
425
5.5

7,700
7,225
475
6.2

8,000
7,525
475
5.9

0.9
0.7
5.6
4.6

-0.4
0.2
-10.3
-10.1

5,325
2,625
325
5,000
1,275
1,025
2,700
325
2,375

5,275
2,600
300
4,975
1,275
1,025
2,675
325
2,350

5,275
2,575
275
5,000
1,275
1,025
2,700
325
2,375

5,350
2,650
300
5,050
1,300
1,050
2,700
325
2,375

5,375
2,650
300
5,075
1,325
1,025
2,725
325
2,400

-3.2
-12.4
-36.8
0.0
1.9
-18.0
7.9
0.0
9.1

-1.8
-5.8
-13.0
-0.7
-1.9
-7.1
2.9
-2.6
3.7

14,956
7,425
1,658
5,873
2,280
2,432
360

17,126
8,283
1,932
6,910
2,590
456
476

20,121
8,937
2,160
9,024
3,041
2,386
460

23,022
11,555
2,468
8,999
3,098
4,347
453

...
...
...
9,186
3,214
...
...

10.0
6.0
-2.1
17.0
-6.4
70.9
-1.6

15.2
4.7
0.3
36.3
23.3
-11.3
-1.1

81,900
68,200
13,700
16.7

79,800
68,300
11,500
14.4

80,400
70,700
9,700
12.1

81,200
72,000
9,200
11.3

82,000
73,500
8,500
10.4

6.9
6.2
13.3
6.0

3.1
4.1
-2.5
-5.4

52,200
37,500
7,200
4,700
2,500
45,000
10,000
1,600
1,600
4,100
6,000
5,400
1,600
14,700
3,300
11,400

53,200
38,400
7,300
4,700
2,600
45,900
10,000
1,700
1,600
4,500
6,100
5,600
1,600
14,800
3,300
11,500

54,600
39,800
7,400
4,700
2,700
47,200
10,600
1,700
1,700
4,600
6,200
5,800
1,800
14,800
3,300
11,500

56,900
42,000
8,200
4,700
3,500
48,700
11,600
1,700
1,600
4,900
6,200
6,000
1,800
14,900
3,400
11,500

56,300
42,000
8,200
4,600
3,600
48,100
11,600
1,700
1,700
4,900
6,200
6,000
1,700
14,300
3,400
10,900

3.1
3.7
-1.2
-6.1
5.9
3.9
-1.7
21.4
0.0
25.6
1.6
7.1
0.0
1.4
3.0
0.9

1.7
2.1
-5.0
-9.6
3.6
2.9
0.9
25.8
2.6
15.3
0.4
2.1
1.5
0.8
2.6
0.2

133,496
100,734
14,197
18,565
7,207
29,942
4,354

149,722
114,003
14,900
20,819
7,803
43,177
4,455

167,988
127,106
15,610
25,272
8,516
34,467
4,105

203,155
154,962
19,770
28,423
9,785
40,595
3,185

...
...
...
27,301
9,551
...
...

5.8
1.2
8.5
74.1
39.4
26.9
-17.7

4.5
3.1
6.5
18.2
9.1
-4.0
3.0

49
49

84
84

38
38

62
36

53
53

-14.5
-11.7

-45.2
-45.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

17,500
15,775
1,725
9.9

17,600
15,950
1,650
9.4

18,000
16,700
1,300
7.2

18,200
16,850
1,350
7.4

18,525
17,225
1,300
7.0

6.0
5.4
15.6
9.0

6.4
6.8
1.8
-4.5

13,925
10,175
1,050
12,875
5,200
3,925
3,750
1,400
2,350

14,100
10,350
1,025
13,075
5,475
3,850
3,750
1,400
2,350

14,900
11,100
1,025
13,875
6,025
4,050
3,800
1,425
2,375

15,225
11,425
1,025
14,200
6,400
4,000
3,800
1,425
2,375

15,250
11,475
1,025
14,225
6,450
4,000
3,775
1,425
2,350

4.3
4.1
5.1
4.2
8.4
-2.4
4.9
5.6
4.4

3.6
3.2
-7.9
4.6
8.7
-1.1
4.8
6.7
3.7

38,003
28,568
4,146
5,289
2,053
8,453
1,031

40,509
30,686
4,093
5,731
2,148
6,517
1,222

41,816
31,544
3,961
6,310
2,126
7,401
1,333

61,696
49,942
4,574
7,180
2,472
9,212
1,293

...
...
...
6,059
2,120
...
...

-6.6
-9.0
1.2
11.7
-10.6
-26.0
38.4

1.4
-0.6
9.1
8.9
-0.4
-20.4
8.8

22
22

23
21

16
16

15
15

20
20

-55.6
-55.6

-40.0
-39.5

57,925
55,650
2,275
3.9

57,875
55,500
2,375
4.1

57,775
55,300
2,475
4.3

57,575
54,775
2,800
4.9

58,200
55,275
2,925
5.0

2.0
1.4
13.6
11.4

1.3
1.7
-7.1
-8.4

37,950
25,700
3,350
2,375
975
34,600
6,975
575
925
4,825
4,175
4,000
875
12,250
4,775
7,475

37,925
25,650
3,275
2,300
975
34,650
6,900
575
925
4,825
4,175
4,100
875
12,275
4,725
7,550

37,800
25,550
3,175
2,250
925
34,625
7,000
550
950
4,750
4,175
4,075
875
12,250
4,750
7,500

37,825
25,525
3,175
2,275
900
34,650
7,000
550
925
4,725
4,200
4,075
875
12,300
4,750
7,550

37,400
25,200
3,125
2,250
875
34,275
6,875
475
925
4,750
4,150
4,025
875
12,200
4,800
7,400

-0.3
-1.0
-3.8
-9.1
12.9
0.0
1.5
5.6
-11.9
-4.0
1.2
2.5
-7.9
1.0
1.6
0.7

-0.6
-0.9
-8.7
-13.6
7.4
0.3
3.0
17.0
-5.7
-3.7
1.6
1.7
-9.8
0.2
-2.9
2.2

85,567
64,167
9,912
11,489
4,460
28,051
3,617

84,618
63,861
10,045
10,712
4,015
36,016
3,337

88,758
65,152
9,326
14,280
4,812
32,299
3,428

110,154
84,748
10,493
14,914
5,134
25,314
2,724

...
...
...
10,940
3,827
...
...

-2.4
-1.1
-25.9
-8.2
-26.6
-8.4
-3.6

4.0
2.9
2.9
10.2
1.6
11.8
22.5

21
21

54
54

36
36

18
18

23
23

-17.9
-17.9

-34.1
-33.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

457.3
440.1
17.2
3.8

461.7
443.7
18.0
3.9

463.7
445.3
18.4
4.0

461.1
441.5
19.6
4.3

457.5
436.9
20.6
4.5

-0.0
-0.6
13.8
13.9

1.5
1.8
-5.2
-6.6

381.9
1.9
25.7
27.5
12.0
9.7
44.2
9.2
5.8
16.7
52.8
54.5
4.5
6.2
27.8
15.2
10.7
69.5
42.8

384.8
2.1
25.7
27.7
12.0
9.9
44.8
9.2
5.8
16.7
52.9
54.7
4.5
6.3
28.3
15.2
10.7
70.3
43.5

386.9
1.9
25.7
27.7
12.0
10.0
46.3
9.2
5.7
16.7
52.9
54.8
4.6
6.4
28.8
15.1
10.7
70.4
43.8

385.9
2.0
25.7
27.8
12.1
10.0
46.3
9.2
5.7
16.8
52.6
54.8
4.8
6.2
28.9
14.9
10.8
69.4
42.6

375.7
2.0
25.0
27.5
12.1
10.1
45.0
9.2
5.7
16.3
51.4
54.0
4.5
5.8
28.4
14.6
10.7
65.5
38.8

-1.3
17.6
-7.7
5.4
15.2
5.2
-0.2
0.0
-9.5
-11.4
-0.2
0.9
-6.3
-18.3
1.8
-5.8
1.9
-1.2
-4.9

0.6
17.3
-6.5
-1.1
5.5
3.5
1.8
-0.5
-11.4
-0.6
4.5
2.9
-6.9
-10.6
0.9
-2.1
4.1
1.6
0.2

941,552
609,406
138,972
115,612
77,563
213,006
22,491

944,106
595,583
144,625
119,300
84,598
205,571
29,365

997,867
640,463
147,153
121,812
88,439
206,996
31,142

1,179,726
824,313
148,203
115,636
91,574
194,929
19,900

...
...
...
...
85,307
...
...

-1.2
-3.7
7.8
-8.7
21.1
-14.3
-28.3

2.6
0.4
8.0
3.5
12.4
1.2
-1.5

333
313
20

541
316
225

320
219
101

241
221
20

484
188
296

31.9
-44.5
962.6

-26.4
-32.2
50.9

209,911
769
272,966

229,448
884
259,557

216,103
810
266,794

193,643
753
257,162

158,272
594
266,451

-38.6
-37.3
-2.2

-19.5
-20.1
0.4

328,716
15,823

385,753
21,922

380,105
23,434

359,108
20,972

354,066
22,064

0.8
13.7

4.7
-6.5

IV
2006

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

989.8
1.4
3.4
2.0
4.5

995.3
1.5
3.5
2.0
4.0

1,000.6
1.5
3.5
2.0
3.7

1,005.6
1.6
3.5
2.0
3.4

1,010.5
1.5
3.5
2.0
3.3

2.1
10.1
3.8
-0.7
-25.1

2.2
15.3
5.2
-1.5
-18.3

29,891
20,457
2,325
150
6,041
5,569
30,199

30,718
21,004
2,389
154
6,252
5,696
30,862

31,123
21,262
2,417
155
6,314
5,809
31,105

31,446
21,449
2,437
157
6,366
5,912
31,271

31,672
21,548
2,446
157
6,411
6,002
31,343

6.0
5.3
5.2
4.4
6.1
7.8
3.8

7.5
7.0
7.0
5.8
8.2
8.5
5.2

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

SEP
2007

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

2,061.9
1,993.5
68.4
3.3

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

2,065.1
1,994.0
71.1
3.4

2,080.5
2,007.1
73.4
3.5

2,080.3
2,001.1
79.2
3.8

2,086.3
2,002.0
84.3
4.0

2.3
1.8
14.1
11.5

1.6
1.8
-4.3
-5.8

1,911.2
3.2
169.5
109.9
38.5
15.2
26.7
89.3
231.4
9.0
56.7
31.1
112.2
39.6
323.9
32.9
173.7
25.5
27.9
131.4
69.7
21.7
225.9
119.7

1,917.6
3.1
166.0
109.6
38.5
15.3
26.7
89.6
234.2
9.0
57.1
31.1
111.8
39.9
323.3
33.5
174.2
26.0
29.0
132.9
69.8
21.9
228.9
122.0

1,927.3
3.2
161.1
109.1
38.3
15.3
26.9
89.8
240.2
9.0
57.6
31.4
111.5
40.1
325.3
34.0
175.0
26.1
29.7
134.2
69.9
22.0
231.2
123.8

1,928.0
3.1
158.2
108.9
38.2
15.3
26.8
89.7
241.8
9.1
57.9
31.5
111.5
40.6
325.5
34.2
176.0
26.0
29.6
134.9
70.0
22.5
230.2
123.2

1,895.9
3.2
153.7
108.6
38.2
15.3
26.7
89.4
235.9
9.0
56.7
31.2
111.1
39.5
316.7
33.5
174.6
26.1
28.7
132.1
68.8
22.2
228.2
121.7

0.7
10.3
-9.5
-2.0
-3.0
1.3
0.0
1.6
1.7
3.4
-2.1
3.7
-2.7
-0.8
-0.4
3.7
4.4
5.7
-2.0
2.6
-1.7
1.8
9.2
14.5

1.1
13.3
-7.0
-2.3
-4.0
2.4
-0.7
2.4
2.2
4.3
1.5
-2.2
-0.5
0.7
1.1
1.0
4.9
6.5
2.4
2.7
-1.0
0.5
5.5
6.7

4,486,614
2,945,870
625,155
542,444
373,146
1,308,348
94,221

4,569,311
2,954,543
650,588
560,878
403,301
1,287,543
133,029

4,773,350
3,092,559
661,957
592,905
425,928
1,311,747
126,221

5,549,034
3,933,420
666,682
512,656
436,277
1,231,299
104,197

...
...
...
...
420,038
...
...

-2.7
-4.8
8.2
-13.3
18.5
-27.1
-0.6

2.0
-0.1
8.3
2.2
11.2
-4.5
4.6

2,623
1,220
57
1,346

1,332
1,166
60
106

2,692
995
97
1,599

1,236
975
93
167

1,922
1,055
51
816

-31.8
-60.7
67.2
695.3

-14.0
-29.2
3.8
79.2

1,050,713
3,421
307,136

919,047
3,452
266,236

1,058,297
3,318
318,956

1,068,799
3,412
313,247

911,022
2,907
313,389

-39.4
-33.8
-8.5

-26.9
-25.2
-3.4

3,246,206
42,559

3,501,614
45,393

3,399,292
44,239

3,246,141
45,250

3,220,307
45,403

-4.6
-1.5

1.3
-1.2

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
IV
2006

I
2007

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
4,151.2
4,186.5
Natural Increase
10.5
10.9
Births
17.3
17.6
Deaths
6.8
6.7
Net Migration
32.2
24.3
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
142,684
146,760
Earnings by Place of Work
115,013
117,962
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
12,687
12,992
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-144
-147
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
22,314
23,243
Plus: Transfer Payments
18,188
18,694
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
34,372
35,056
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

4,217.6
11.2
17.7
6.6
20.0

4,246.9
11.3
17.9
6.6
18.0

4,275.8
11.3
18.0
6.7
17.5

3.0
7.6
4.0
-1.7
-45.5

3.5
10.4
4.7
-3.7
-39.6

148,512
119,191
13,119
-149
23,465
19,123
35,212

149,887
120,163
13,217
-150
23,581
19,511
35,293

150,857
120,869
13,285
-152
23,588
19,837
35,282

5.7
5.1
4.7
-5.5
5.7
9.1
2.6

7.4
6.6
6.1
-6.6
8.8
10.1
3.8

6,395.2
14.7
25.9
11.3
42.8

6,449.9
14.5
25.6
11.1
37.2

6,499.1
14.7
25.7
11.0
32.0

6,544.9
14.4
25.7
11.3
30.6

6,589.0
14.1
25.8
11.7
29.2

3.0
-4.1
-0.6
4.0
-31.8

3.5
1.9
0.7
-0.7
-32.9

201,544
152,493
17,089
706
34,002
31,432

206,550
155,713
17,493
720
34,761
32,850

208,388
156,483
17,554
724
35,585
33,153

211,525
158,308
17,718
732
36,402
33,806

213,256
159,459
17,816
737
36,699
34,180

5.8
4.6
4.3
4.4
7.9
8.7

6.6
5.5
5.7
5.8
7.9
9.9

112,649
24,128
15,715
103
15,612
31,515
41,697

115,229
24,514
15,944
221
15,723
32,024
42,534

115,631
24,729
15,908
226
15,682
32,064
42,482

117,021
25,013
15,853
263
15,590
32,319
42,907

117,921
25,210
...
...
...
32,365
...

4.7
4.5
0.2
195.5
-0.9
2.7
4.3

6.1
5.2
0.3
61.0
-0.2
3.0
4.8

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

NOV
2007

DEC
2007

1,647,854
129,531
608,600
909,723
161,814
19,372
108,163
34,279

1,412,124
126,186
525,198
760,740
200,202
25,729
143,212
31,261

943,725
84,440
350,417
508,868
214,271
26,951
162,158
25,162

748,988
53,691
269,407
425,890
229,100
34,588
181,708
12,804

665,822
56,824
199,441
409,557
240,166
43,494
176,660
20,012

-13.4
-5.0
-14.8
-13.8
-11.6
1.6
-14.3
-11.5

0.4
1.0
2.3
-0.8
1.8
-3.5
1.8
7.2

885,138
1,626,280
657,609

940,280
1,755,586
711,682

634,012
2,026,827
706,494

678,659
2,200,547
755,000

...
...
709,773

-6.9
-1.7
-2.9

18.1
6.9
-5.1

208.5
203.9

208.9
204.3

210.2
205.9

210.0
205.8

211.1
206.7

4.3
4.6

3.0
3.1

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

JAN
2008

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

3,047.4
2,927.7
119.7
3.8

DEC
2007

JAN
2008

3,051.9
2,930.4
121.5
3.9

3,070.1
2,947.5
122.6
4.1

3,067.4
2,935.5
131.9
4.2

3,075.7
2,936.7
139.0
4.3

2.2
1.7
14.2
10.3

1.9
2.1
-2.6
-4.8

2,670.4
11.9
224.3
145.8
19.9
42.1
27.6
34.8
107.1
328.0
12.7
72.3
42.5
128.7
52.1
401.6
44.2
262.2
35.1
46.6
188.2
96.2
53.0
383.1
205.9
41.5

2,679.8
12.1
220.5
145.5
19.8
41.9
27.6
34.8
107.8
331.7
12.7
72.4
42.4
128.4
52.2
401.0
44.6
263.6
35.6
47.5
190.0
96.2
52.7
388.1
210.0
40.9

2,692.8
12.1
215.1
145.2
19.8
41.6
27.6
34.8
108.5
340.9
12.8
72.8
42.8
128.0
52.3
403.1
45.0
264.6
35.7
48.0
191.6
96.3
52.7
390.5
212.1
40.8

2,693.5
12.2
211.6
145.2
19.8
41.6
27.6
35.4
109.2
342.6
12.7
73.7
42.8
128.0
52.7
403.4
45.3
265.8
35.5
47.8
192.2
96.0
53.2
388.2
209.7
41.5

2,647.5
12.3
206.3
144.8
19.7
41.6
27.5
35.2
107.9
335.5
12.7
72.9
42.3
127.6
51.2
393.4
43.0
264.2
35.1
46.8
188.4
95.1
52.8
380.0
202.1
40.4

0.6
17.1
-9.0
-1.0
-0.5
-3.0
5.8
-0.6
0.2
2.1
0.8
-0.4
1.9
-3.6
-1.3
-0.3
0.0
4.2
4.8
-0.6
1.2
-1.3
1.5
6.2
8.9
-1.7

1.0
14.4
-7.2
-2.5
2.6
-5.2
3.3
-0.5
2.0
2.5
2.4
1.2
-2.4
-0.3
0.6
1.4
0.3
4.7
5.0
1.8
1.6
-1.3
0.7
4.2
4.8
0.6

18.00
15.69
14.70
12.16
19.53

18.08
16.00
14.65
12.17
19.58

18.28
15.96
14.58
12.00
20.08

18.56
15.87
14.43
11.91
19.48

18.87
16.32
14.54
12.04
19.40

11.7
9.2
0.4
0.3
1.1

7.4
5.5
3.2
0.4
5.7

6,496,045
4,210,540
922,799
778,116
584,590
226,920
1,005,138
299,301
75,671
312,739
1,784,226
160,095
171,646

6,608,846
4,220,605
960,342
797,346
630,553
236,339
798,967
299,919
61,810
329,687
1,772,937
140,873
214,684

6,862,807
4,392,685
977,123
822,219
670,779
226,027
646,488
294,312
90,931
314,063
1,774,596
116,184
195,570

8,028,138
5,612,348
984,097
744,644
687,048
236,530
633,669
306,552
87,901
334,755
1,676,958
90,692
158,135

...
...
...
...
650,385
227,535
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.7
-3.8
6.8
-11.3
19.3
-4.5
-0.1
3.9
13.4
-0.1
-24.0
-41.0
-4.8

2.1
0.1
6.9
2.7
11.2
2.5
9.7
3.7
7.4
4.5
-4.3
-10.9
4.5

3,382
1,989
74
1,319

2,309
1,872
160
277

3,262
1,509
105
1,649

1,745
1,444
104
197

2,731
1,549
54
1,128

-25.3
-55.5
-16.1
912.0

-23.4
-33.9
-13.5
59.9

908
683
13
212

1,117
842
29
245

1,024
797
21
205

992
744
23
224

967
711
27
229

63.3
73.4
92.9
36.3

61.7
59.7
76.9
67.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

NOV
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2006

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

IV
2007

206.5
201.7
197.0

209.2
203.8
198.9

212.6
207.7
203.2

212.6
208.2
203.6

214.5
209.7
205.3

3.9
4.0
4.2

3.2
2.9
2.9

117.5
115.1

118.8
116.1

119.5
117.3

119.8
117.9

120.6
119.1

2.6
3.4

2.7
2.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

Eller College of Management
To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:

Dean........................................................................Paul R. Portney
Vice Dean ................................................................Stanley Reynolds
Director of Marketing and Communications ............Julie S. Krell

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/.
Arizona’s Economy, published quarterly by the Economic and Business Research
Center at the Eller College of Management, is provided as an educational service by
The University of Arizona. Correspondence should be addressed to EBR Publications,
McClelland Hall Room 103, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108.

Economic and Business Research Center:
Main phone/fax ......................................................520.621.2155
fax: 520.621.2150
Director ..................................................................Marshall J. Vest
520.621.4075
Senior Research Economist ....................................Alberta Charney, Ph.D.
520.621.2291
Computer Database Specialist ................................Pia Montoya
520.621.2523
Research Economist & Database Manager ..............Lora Mwaniki-Lyman
520.626.6439
Senior Economist & Webmaster..............................Maile Nadelhoffer
520.621.4050
Senior Research Economist ....................................Pat Patton, Ph.D.
520.626.0011
Senior Regional Scientist ........................................Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D.
520.626.0520
State Data Center & Librarian ..................................Valorie Hanni Rice
520.621.2109

Arizona’s Economy also is available online at: www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/.
As part of The University of Arizona’s public mission to improve quality of life for the
people of Arizona and the nation, the Economic and Business Research Center is dedicated to providing Arizona citizens and decision makers with high quality economic
data and objective forecasts and analyses.
Copyright 2008 by The University of Arizona. Information contained in this publication
may be copied or reprinted with credit to the Eller College of Management at The
University of Arizona.
Printing and mailing costs for Arizona’s Economy are covered by private sponsorship
and not at tax-payer expense.

Thank you to our partners for their ongoing sponsorship of Economic and Business Research Center programs.
Arizona’s Economy Sponsor:

Forecasting Project Sponsors:
Arizona Department of Commerce

City of Mesa

Maricopa County

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee

City of Tempe

Pascua Yaqui Tribe

Arizona Public Service Company

City of Tucson

Pima Association of Governments

Beach, Fleischman & Co., P.C.

Compass Bank

Pima County

CB Richard Ellis

Cox Communications

Salt River Project

Central Arizona Association of Governments

Elliott D. Pollack and Company

Tucson Electric Power Company

Chase

KB Home

Tucson Newspapers

City of Glendale

Lippow Development Company

Tucson Regional Economic Opportunities, Inc.

Website Sponsor:

Maricopa Association of Governments
www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

15.

Make the Right Decision.
The quality of one’s decisions grows from the quality
of the information upon which they are based. The
Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index ® (BLCI),
a collaborative effort by Compass Bank and The
University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management,
provides executives like you with valuable perspectives
on the latest economic news and business trends.
Please log on at www.blci.com/arizona/ and register to
become a BLCI panelist. It only takes a few minutes
and you’ll be notified by email when the next survey
opens on June 1st.
With increased participation from business leaders
like you, the BLCI will become a more valuable
planning tool for the Arizona business community.
Plus, when you participate, you receive an exclusive
preview of survey results before they are released to
the general public.

Join us for breakfast as The University of Arizona
economists Gerald Swanson and Marshall Vest review
factors affecting the current contraction of the
nation's economy and its impact on the mid-year
economic forecast for Arizona and its Metro economies.
When: Wednesday, June 4, 2008
7:00 am – 8:45 am
Where: Doubletree Hotel Tucson at Reid Park
445 South Alvernon Way
Cost: $21.00 per person
Reservations: www.eller.arizona.edu/outlook or
520.626.7842
Sponsored by Chase

Join today!

PRSRT STD
US POSTAGE
P A I D
TUCSON, ARIZONA

Economic and Business Research Center
Eller College of Management
McClelland Hall 103
PO Box 210108
Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108
CHANGE SERVICE REQUESTED

PERMIT NO. 190

Ch a n g e o f a d d r e ss, p l e a se e m a i l : e b r p u b l i c a t i o n s@ e l l e r . a r i zo n a . e d u