J A N U A R Y

Economic Outlook
for 2008-2009
Turbulence Ahead
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
December 1, 2007

Economic conditions have deteriorated
significantly in recent months and
forecasters have been revising their
forecasts downward as 2007 comes to an
end. Most forecasts for the U.S. now show
the economy teetering on the brink of
recession, but remaining in the black. We
have revised our forecasts downward as
well. Given recent evidence, we believe
that Arizona’s economy is already in a
recession that will stretch well into 2008.

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................5
Capturing Imagination Generating Jobs..................................6
Arizona Economic Indicators..........9

The nation’s economy is struggling to overcome
multiple shocks, including a downturn of historic
proportions (both activity and prices) in housing
markets, turmoil in financial markets that is now
spreading well beyond sub-prime mortgages, and
oil prices that are marching toward $100 per
barrel. Labor markets are deteriorating and job
growth is disappearing. Consumers are losing
confidence and are reeling in spending. Business
leaders are worried.
Credit market turmoil is especially worrisome
since the economy floats on a sea of credit.
Financial innovations in recent years led to easy
credit and too much lending. With the rise of
“securitization,” risk could be spread to investors
worldwide. Securitization is the pooling of loans
and the issuance of a security that provides a nice
return. Payments on the underlying loans are used
to cover the payments to the security holder. This
works as long as the default rate on the underlying
loans remains low.
Global Insight, a leader in global economic
forecasting, recently wrote that “at best, we are
only halfway through the financial crisis.” They
estimate that roughly $600 billion in securitized
subprime loans reside somewhere in the U.S.
financial system. Write downs could total as much
as $120 billion, or 20% of the total.
Because of the complexity, it’s impossible to
know the extent of the damage, which has led to a
“flight to quality.” Although treasury yields are
falling, spreads between treasuries and corporate
securities and mortgages have widened
significantly. The commercial paper market has
frozen, and SIVs face a severe liquidity crisis.
Commercial banks have tightened credit
requirements on consumer, commercial, and
industrial loans as well as mortgages. This crisis of
confidence is placing downward pressure on the
dollar, reducing foreign purchases of U.S.
securities, and sparking a potential deflationary
spiral in stock and housing markets.
The Federal Reserve, in its role as lender of last
resort, has taken steps to provide liquidity to keep
markets functioning. More measures may be
needed. Let’s hope they succeed as this is a very
treacherous period for the U.S. economy.
According to Economy.com, Arizona along with

www.eb r.eller .ar izona.e du

2 0 0 8

•

W I N T E R

I S S U E

Michigan, California, Florida, and Nevada are
either in recession or on the brink. Michigan is
suffering from cutbacks in auto manufacturing.
The other states woes are primarily due to
major contractions in homebuilding. All have
high concentrations of employment in
construction-related industries, and were
heavily exposed to real estate speculation and
subprime lending.

Labor Market Conditions
Deteriorate
As recently as 2005, job growth statewide
exceeded 6% annual rates. It’s now running
below 1.3% and falling rapidly. Official preliminary estimates still show 2.6% growth, but
these will be revised significantly downward in
coming months. For the entire year 2007, the
revisions are expected to trim a full percentage
point off annual growth.
The construction industry has trimmed
23,600 jobs since peaking in May 2006 and
more losses lie ahead. Manufacturing payrolls
are declining and have trimmed over 6,100 jobs
since peaking in May 2006. The information
industry remains within a few hundred of its
low point and has shown no growth over the
past 2-1/2 years.
Financial services peaked in March and have
trimmed 2,200 jobs, and that number will grow
significantly in coming months as the closure of
mortgage lending operations and the collapse
of First Magnus that occurred in late August are
included. We’re just beginning to see the fallout
of the homebuilding cycle on growth-related
support industries, which include mortgage brokers, real estate brokers, title companies, home
inspection companies, landscaping, architects,
and engineering firms as well as builders and
developers. All totaled, these activities comprise
close to 30% of total employment.
Employment services (which provide
temporary and contract workers) is an
excellent leading indicator of the job
market as it normally is the first to
experience cutbacks. It peaked in
February and has trimmed nearly
1,000 jobs so far statewide.

Also, transportation & warehousing jobs, which is
an excellent indicator of goods shipments and
commerce in general, leveled off a year ago. The
only sectors that continue to add jobs are mining,
trade, leisure and hospitality, education and health
services, and government.
Mining has been on a tear, boosting payrolls by
nearly 20% over the past year. Unfortunately,
that’s only 1,900 jobs. The 12,000 jobs currently
employed in mining comprise only 0.4% of the 2.7
million total nonfarm jobs. Although mining is
helping to shore up the economy, the effects are
small — only one in ten laid off construction
workers might find a job in mining.
Initial unemployment insurance claims have
been rising over the past year statewide, and are
approaching 225,000 per year. The last time this
indicator moved up sharply was in 2001, during
the last recession. With claims rising, Arizona’s
low unemployment rate of 3.3% (September) is
sure to rise in the months ahead.

Recession in Homebuilding Deepens
A year ago, homebuilders and lenders remained
hopeful that the housing downturn would be short.
Hopes were dashed, however, as credit market turmoil significantly reduced mortgage lending.
How much longer before the bottom is reached
and recovery begins? Exhibit 1 provides a
historical perspective by comparing the current
housing downturn to four prior episodes dating
back into the 1970s.
The graph superimposes prior cycles on top of
the current one. Each cycle peak was set to 100
and overlaid to coincide with the peak month of
the current cycle.
Since peaking in September 2005, building permits in Arizona have fallen 56%. The rapid falloff
so far compares to the downturns of the mid 1970s
and early 1980s. Both were severe episodes that
led to deep economy-wide national recessions.
In the earlier period, permits peaked in January
1973 and fell nearly 75% over the following 26
months before hitting bottom. Another year-anda-half passed before the up-leg of the cycle began
in earnest.

2.

Permits peaked again in October 1978, prior to
the twin recessions of 1980 and 1981-82. Over a
38-month period, permits declined by 69%. After
several months of modest increases, activity
skyrocketed in response to changes in tax laws
that led to the “mother of all” real estate
investment bubbles.
The ensuing down cycle that began in February
1984 led to collapse of the savings and loan
industry, creation of the Resolution Trust Company
(RTC), and bankruptcy for many builders. Over a
period of 83 months – nearly seven years –
permitting activity fell by 81%.
The cycle associated with the last recession was
barely noticeable. After peaking in March 1999,
permits fell only 19% over 34 months. The drop
was small due to at least three factors: 1) record
low interest rates put in place by the Federal
Reserve following the terrorist attacks on 9-11,
2) renewed interest in real estate on the part of
investors who fled stock markets in the wake of
the dot-com bust, and 3) financial innovation that
made credit widely available to less-creditworthy
homebuyers. The resulting asset bubble in single
family homes led to the current bust that
unfortunately still has a ways to go.
The home price index published by Standard and
Poor’s Case-Shiller shows that prices in the metro
Phoenix area have declined by 8% during the past
twelve months. This index is perhaps the most
reliable measure of home prices as it is based on
repeat-sales. As additional properties from
foreclosures hit the market, prices will dive
further. A total decline of 20% is possible.
As the end of 2007 approaches, supply and
demand factors remain unfavorable for recovery
of homebuilding any time soon. Inventories of
homes for sale remain high, and a wave of foreclosures over the next year or two promises to
make the inventory problem significantly worse.
That will keep downward pressure on home prices
and keep buyers on the sidelines as they wait for
home prices to fall further. Finally, the credit
crunch eliminates a large number of buyers from
qualifying for a loan. In short, an overabundance
of supply in the face of weak demand will prolong

the housing recovery.
Given these conditions, we look for further
declines in homebuilding in the months ahead.
Our current forecast calls for a bottom in 2008
with a little over 38,000 units permitted
(Exhibit 2). That could easily turn out to be too
optimistic if credit markets continue to chill. The
bottom may come in 2009 – or even 2010 –
after permits have declined by 70-80%. That
would put permitting statewide close to 30,000
at an annual rate, or even a bit lower.
Strong nonresidential construction has offset
some of the weakness in homebuilding, and there
are record amounts of offices, retail, and industrial
properties currently under construction. However,
construction may be peaking now as tightened
credit standards are spreading to commercial
development. As current projects are completed,
the pipeline will empty. This typically is the case
as commercial development lags residential by a
year or two.

Consumers are Retrenching
The buying spree by consumers appears to be
over – at least for a while. For the past decade
and more, consumers have spent more than they
earned, resulting in falling savings rates and rising
debt. Tax cuts, rising home prices and the ability
to tap home equity (the major component of
household wealth) have provided piles of additional cash in recent years to support spending.
But the main factor was easy access to credit.
Although consumers still have an estimated $4
trillion in unused borrowing capacity on their
credit cards, the ability to access equity in their
homes has evaporated as housing prices decline
and credit standards tighten. Housing wealth is
expected to plunge by an estimated $2.5 trillion
nationwide during the downturn. The wealth
effect works on the downside as well as when
prices are increasing: for every $1 decline in home
prices, spending falls by an estimated 9 cents. A
decline of this magnitude equates to some 2-3%
of personal income. Mortgage equity extractions
totaled nearly $400 billion in 2006, but that
window has all but closed.

Arizona's economy is in recession because of its high concentration of
employment in construction and support industries related to growth,
and prior heavy exposure to real estate speculation and subprime lending.

EXHIBIT 1
Housing Not Yet at Bottom
Housing Recessions Compared
Residential Permits, Arizona

EXHIBIT 2
A U-Shaped Bottom for Homebuilding
Residential Permits, Arizona
(annual rate)

000s

Consumer confidence has fallen precipitously in
recent months to the lowest readings since the
early 1990s. They’re concerned over the
deteriorating job market, declining home prices,

and gasoline prices headed above $3 per gallon.
Others worry about tighter credit availability and
approaching resets on adjustable rate mortgages.
Nationwide, some $360 billion of sub-prime loans

Current (25 mo., -56%)

99-01 (34, -19)

84-90 (83, -81%)

78-81 (38, -69%)

73-75 (26, -75%)

and another $150 billion of jumbo loans will reset
to higher rates in 2008. With credit much tighter, it
will be difficult to refinance, and with prices falling,
many will owe more on their home than it is worth.
That’s a recipe for defaults and foreclosures.
The best measures of spending by Arizonans are
retail sales and restaurant and bar (R&B) sales.
After adjusting for inflation, both measures
peaked in February and were declining during the
summer — near double-digit annual rates for
retail and by 3-5% rates for R&B.
Aggregate retail spending, which includes sales
for restaurant and bar, gasoline and food as well
as general merchandise, autos, hardware and
other categories normally included in retail, grew
by only 1.1% in 2007, after adjusting for inflation.
The coming year will bring the first decline since
2001 – a drop of almost one percent. The following year spending will remain subdued with an
increase of only 0.9%. It will be 2010 before
spending begins to accelerate once again
(Exhibit 3).
After registering a gain of almost 5% in 2007,
inflation adjusted personal income will increase by
only 1.5% per year in both 2008 and 2009. Again,
recovery is delayed until 2010.

Supply and demand factors remain unfavorable for
recovery of homebuilding any time soon.
3.

EXHIBIT 3
Spending and Incomes Will Languish
Real Consumer Spending and Income Growth, Arizona
% change

Near-Term Outlook
Arizona’s economy is probably in recession now.
We need more data and a round of revisions
before we will be able to identify exact timing,
but with the data we have now, a case can be
made that the economy peaked as early as the
second quarter of 2007. More likely, the data
eventually will show that recession began in the
third quarter, punctuated by the collapse of the
mortgage lending industry.
The recession of 2007-08 should last a year,
give or take a few months, and be relatively mild.
Causes are threefold: a classical inventory cycle
(in housing), a credit squeeze, and an energy
shock. Arizona will be hit worse than most states
because of its reliance on growth-related activities and exposure to imploding mortgage loans.
Sectors related to growth will be especially hard
hit and a number of growth-dependent firms will
fail. Consumer spending will suffer as job growth
and wage increases languish. The public sector
will struggle to balance budgets as tax revenues
shrink. Fortunately, population will continue to
grow, but at a much slower pace as potential
newcomers are unable to sell their homes in other
parts of the country.

EXHIBIT 4
Jobs Stop Growing During Recessions
Nonfarm Job Growth, Arizona
% change

Nonfarm job growth will disappear and turn negative for several months. Job growth for all of 2007 on
an annual average basis will register 2.4 percent, and
then decline slightly by 0.4% next year. The following year, 2009, will see virtually no gain (Exhibit 4).

If housing markets dive deeper, the credit
crunch persists, oil prices stay above $100, or if
consumers pull back more, the downturn could
extend another year and revival the severe recessions of the 1970s and 1980s. ■

Consumer confidence has fallen precipitously in recent months to the
lowest readings since the early 1990s.
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

2006
197,535.4
9.2
41,598
4.6
80,874.8
8.2
6,305.2
4.3
65,459
-28.1
2,638.6
5.2
436.1
6.3
2,202.4
5.0
511.2
4.6
394.5
7.8
266.4
4.8
410.0
1.7

2007
212,788.8
7.7
43,689
5.0
83,914.2
3.8
6,525.0
3.5
49,366
-24.6
2,701.7
2.4
419.2
-3.9
2,282.7
3.6
531.9
4.0
412.7
4.6
274.6
3.1
420.4
2.5

2008
219,958.7
3.4
44,985
3.0
84,717.9
1.0
6,698.1
2.7
38,420
-22.2
2,689.5
-0.4
375.7
-10.4
2,314.1
1.4
532.6
0.1
413.0
0.1
279.4
1.8
427.4
1.7

2009
227,557.0
3.5
46,224
2.8
86,986.5
2.7
6,845.7
2.2
43,853
14.1
2,688.2
0.0
344.9
-8.2
2,343.4
1.3
533.5
0.2
410.6
-0.6
288.4
3.2
432.1
1.1

2010
241,833.3
6.3
47,867
3.6
92,790.1
6.7
7,012.4
2.4
64,442
46.9
2,753.0
2.4
349.5
1.3
2,403.7
2.6
547.3
2.6
420.3
2.4
298.7
3.6
438.5
1.5

2011
262,253.8
8.4
49,788
4.0
100,633.6
8.5
7,210.9
2.8
79,780
23.8
2,878.9
4.6
383.7
9.8
2,495.3
3.8
572.8
4.7
442.1
5.2
310.3
3.9
446.0
1.7

2012
287,453.3
9.6
51,952
4.3
109,525.1
8.8
7,438.1
3.2
91,103
14.2
3,037.9
5.5
424.8
10.7
2,613.3
4.7
604.8
5.6
472.2
6.8
322.8
4.0
456.6
2.4

138,635.6
10.3
47,198
4.0
56,337.1
8.3
4,092.6
5.1
44,280
-29.3
1,890.9
5.8
323.1
6.8
1,568.0
5.6
379.5
4.8
319.2
7.6
182.1
6.9
230.8
2.4

150,255.2
8.4
49,712
5.3
58,495.3
3.8
4,221.9
3.2
34,291
-22.6
1,936.7
2.4
309.5
-4.2
1,627.2
3.8
395.2
4.1
336.8
5.5
188.1
3.3
236.6
2.5

155,228.5
3.3
51,538
3.7
58,452.8
-0.1
4,327.4
2.5
24,229
-29.3
1,917.6
-1.0
269.7
-12.9
1,647.9
1.3
390.1
-1.3
344.8
2.4
191.1
1.6
240.1
1.5

162,709.6
4.8
53,460
3.7
61,799.7
5.7
4,444.6
2.7
36,887
52.2
1,931.6
0.7
269.5
-0.1
1,662.1
0.9
392.7
0.7
337.1
-2.2
198.1
3.6
243.9
1.6

173,530.5
6.7
55,566
3.9
66,181.9
7.1
4,575.7
2.9
47,152
27.8
1,981.0
2.6
268.3
-0.5
1,712.7
3.0
406.5
3.5
343.2
1.8
205.9
4.0
249.3
2.2

188,312.3
8.5
57,735
3.9
72,037.4
8.8
4,726.3
3.3
59,979
27.2
2,076.5
4.8
299.4
11.6
1,777.2
3.8
425.2
4.6
355.6
3.6
214.4
4.1
255.3
2.4

205,047.7
8.9
59,980
3.9
78,069.9
8.4
4,885.6
3.4
67,880
13.2
2,185.5
5.2
320.2
7.0
1,865.3
5.0
445.8
4.8
379.7
6.8
222.9
4.0
262.2
2.7

29,118.1
9.0
39,813
4.5
11,636.2
6.0
981.3
2.5
8,522
-26.8
380.1
3.7
58.4
5.4
321.8
3.4
62.0
4.2
49.3
7.3
40.5
2.0
76.9
-0.2

31,645.7
8.7
42,009
5.5
12,207.7
4.9
1,006.0
2.5
5,938
-30.3
390.9
2.8
57.7
-1.1
333.2
3.5
64.3
3.6
52.4
6.3
42.5
4.8
78.3
1.8

33,215.3
5.0
43,553
3.7
12,656.9
3.7
1,026.9
2.1
5,689
-4.2
392.9
0.5
55.0
-4.7
337.9
1.4
65.1
1.3
53.9
2.9
43.2
1.6
78.3
-0.1

35,156.4
5.8
44,969
3.3
13,263.4
4.8
1,050.3
2.3
7,845
37.9
399.9
1.8
54.6
-0.8
345.3
2.2
66.7
2.4
54.0
0.2
44.8
3.8
79.2
1.2

37,676.1
7.2
46,666
3.8
14,090.4
6.2
1,076.5
2.5
10,133
29.2
412.6
3.2
57.2
4.8
355.4
2.9
68.6
2.9
55.4
2.6
46.7
4.2
80.4
1.6

40,331.3
7.0
48,619
4.2
14,964.6
6.2
1,103.4
2.5
10,420
2.8
426.5
3.4
60.2
5.2
366.3
3.1
70.6
2.9
57.7
4.2
48.6
4.0
81.4
1.2

43,039.4
6.7
50,689
4.3
15,799.7
5.6
1,129.7
2.4
10,208
-2.0
438.8
2.9
61.7
2.4
377.1
3.0
72.5
2.7
60.1
4.1
50.4
3.7
82.4
1.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

5.

Capturing
Imagination –
Generating Jobs:
Impact of astronomy, planetary,
and space sciences research on
Arizona’s economy
By Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Senior Regional Scientist
Alberta H. Charney, Senior Research Economist
and Lora Mwaniki-Lyman, Research Economist and
Data Manager

Introduction
Most people associate astronomy, planetary,
and space sciences (APSS) with planets, stars,
galaxies, exploration of far away and beyondour-wildest-dreams spaces, and thousands of
those breath-taking images sent back to Earth
from man-made Pioneers, Voyagers, and space
shuttles, and now to the excitement surrounding
the Phoenix Mars Mission.1
On a more practical, earthly level, astronomy,
planetary, and space sciences are also regarded as
one of the most innovative fields benefiting a large
number of industries. There have been numerous
applications of astronomical techniques and instrumentation such as processing software in automobile and aircraft labs, communication antenna testing, development of highly sensitive photographic
films, and X-ray baggage scanners at airports.2
From a regional economic point of view, the
interest in astronomy, planetary, and space
sciences (APSS) research is primarily as an activity
or a combination of activities that generate
wealth in a regional economy. The nature of
projects is such that it requires substantial
funding by federal agencies such as NASA and
Department of Defense. Grants and awards
directly support highly educated research
personnel and thus contribute to region’s overall
human capital. The scale of the projects requires
close working relations with industry; moreover,
APSS research drives new technology and creates
important new opportunities for industry. The

complexity of projects requires a combination of
advanced fields such as optics, electronics,
computer control, and compact construction,
among others, and thus greatly contributes to the
formation of regional industry clusters.
In the latest assessments of Arizona’s economic
foundations by the Battelle Institute,3 space sciences were identified as one of the six core competencies critical for economic development based
on research innovation. Building on the assessment
and recommendations of the Battelle report, the
Arizona Arts, Sciences, and Technology Academy
(AASTA) requested a study of economic and tax
revenue impacts of astronomy, planetary, and
space sciences research on the State’s economy.4

Background
Since the early beginnings of Lowell
Observatory in Flagstaff in 1896, Arizona has
become a leader in astronomy, planetary, and
space sciences research. Arizona is home to
world-renowned observatories, state-of-art
telescopes, and leading university departments
and centers carrying out research in astronomy,
planetary, and space sciences.
A combination of factors has contributed to the
development of astronomy, planetary, and space
sciences research in Arizona. Mountain peaks, dryness, and wide-open clear skies had been and still
are important factors for the location of telescopes.
Arizona also benefited from the stimulus for space
exploration and increases in federal government
funding for astronomical research since the mid
1950s. But it is also a result of quality of
researchers able to attract both funding and talent.
From 2002 to 2005, Arizona observatories and
academic organizations carrying astronomy, planetary, and space sciences research attracted more
than $600 million in grants and contracts. The
total cumulative investment in instruments, land,
and facilities, as reported in the recent survey of
APSS organizations, was worth $1.2 billion.5

Astronomy, planetary, and space
sciences research generates jobs,
wages, sales, and tax revenues in
Arizona’s economy
Astronomy, planetary, and space sciences
research is predominantly supported by funding

from federal institutions, such as the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and
the National Science Foundation (NSF). By
definition, these funds are injected into Arizona’s
economy, and thus capable of creating jobs,
wages, and output, i.e., economic “impacts.”
Economic impacts are generated through four
main sources that can be reasonably quantified.
These include (a) spending by employees in
observatories, related research organizations, and
university departments and research centers;
(b) operations-related purchase of goods and
services from Arizona businesses; (c) construction
and capital investment, and (d) spending by visitors
such as visiting scholars, conference attendees, and
general public attracted to observatories,
planetariums, and specialty museums.
Because expenditure data were not readily
available, a combination of methods was applied.
Financial data from observatories and related
research organizations were collected through a
survey instrument detailing operations-related
and capital investment-related expenditures in
Arizona. Data also included payroll, benefits, and
number of employees. For university departments
and research centers, financial data on expenditures were obtained from respective central
offices; procurement offices provided information
needed to extract only purchases made in Arizona.
Additional data about university departments and
research centers were also collected through a
survey instrument.
A total of 22 organizations responded to the
survey: eleven observatories, three related
research organizations, and eight university
departments/centers/labs are included in the
economic impact analysis. For simplicity, in this
article these organizations will be referred to as
APSS organizations.
Economic impacts – jobs, wages, and output
(sales) were estimated by using the IMPLAN6
input-output model for Arizona, and tax revenue
estimates were produced via Economic and
Business Research’s Arizona tax revenue models.
Expenditures in fiscal year (FY) 2006

In FY 2006, APSS organizations spent a total of
$233.6 million on employee payroll, benefits,
capital investment, and daily operations including

Today Arizona has close to 30 observatories, with the state’s largest
and world’s most-visited cluster of telescopes located on Kitt Peak.
6.

FIGURE 1
Employment Impact by Industry
(Excluding direct employment in APSS Organizations)

utilities, supplies, and professional and technical
services. Payroll and benefits accounted for $84.0
million and $21.2 million respectively, while
operations-related expenditures were close to
$100 million. An additional $28.4 million was
spent on capital investment.
However, not all of it was spent in Arizona. One
reason is that some goods and services are not
available in Arizona, and therefore purchases are
made from businesses outside the state. Another
reason is that projects are complex and require
collaboration with out-of-Arizona organizations.
Also, a portion of employee payroll leaks out in the
form of federal taxes and contribution to federal
programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

These jobs are generated through APSS' operation-related expenditures, employee and visitors' spending in Arizona.
The category "other" includes education services, publishing, postal services, government, agriculture and mining.

Direct jobs in APSS organizations

The participating APSS organizations employed
more than 1,800 persons. The field is
characterized by a large percentage of Ph.D.s
(more than 24 percent), and professional and
technical personnel (about 41 percent). Graduate
and undergraduate students represented about 25
percent of all employees. The remaining 10
percent included employees in administrative and
support positions (Table 1).

services was spent in Arizona which generated an
additional 81 jobs and $3.5 million in wages.
Impact of operations-related purchases of goods
and services

Direct operations-related spending (excluding
wages and salaries) of the participating APSS organizations in Arizona was $21.4 million. This spending generated 274 jobs and $10.8 million in wages.
Impact of construction/capital investments

TABLE 1
APSS: Human capital
Ph.D.s /Faculty
Professional & technical
Graduate & undergraduate students
Administrative & support

24 %
41 %
25 %
10 %

Source: Survey of APSS organizations

Impact of employee spending

Employee spending was the largest source of
economic impact associated with APSS organizations. The amount of payroll that was actually
spent in Arizona was estimated at $64.8 million.
Applying a recent University of Arizona survey7 of
local consumption patterns of faculty, staff, and
students, it was estimated that APSS employee
spending generated 720 jobs and $26.3 million in
wages in Arizona. It was also taken into account
that a portion of employee benefits on health

In FY 2006, APSS organizations spent $11.8
million on construction/capital-related
investment in Arizona, which generated 137 jobs
and $5.9 million in wages.
Impact of visitor spending

Based on our survey, APSS organizations
attracted more than 201,000 visitors in FY 2006,
out of which about 7,000 were professional
visitors and 194,000 were public visitors. Twentytwo percent of the public visitors were from
outside Arizona. For the purpose of this study, only
the economic activities of professional visitors and
public visitors from outside Arizona were assessed
to determine the effects of new money injected
into Arizona’s economy.
Out-of-Arizona visitors spent an estimated
$16.1 million, generating an economic impact of
$25.7 million in total. The out-of-state visitors’
spending generated 286 jobs and $8.1 million in
wages and salaries in Arizona in FY 2006.

Tax revenue impacts associated with Arizona’s
APSS organizations

APSS organizations generated close to $11.9
million in revenues to state and local
governments. Approximately $2.6 million is
attributable to the operations of university
departments and research centers, $5.9 million to
observatories and related organizations, and $2.1
million to visitors. Capital investment in 2006
generated approximately $1.2 million in revenues.
The state of Arizona received 57 percent of the
revenues ($6.8 million); Arizona counties received
16 percent ($2.0 million), while cities received 26
percent ($3.1 million).
Summary of economic and tax revenue impacts in
FY 2006

The total dollar impact (sales or output) in
Arizona that was attributed to Arizona’s APSS
organizations was estimated at $252.8 million in
FY 2006. This includes $138.6 million in wages,
and $11.9 million in tax revenues (Table 2).
The economic activity of astronomy, planetary,
and spaces science research, as represented by the
APSS organizations, generated more than 3,300
jobs. Of those, more than 1800 were direct jobs in
APSS organizations, while close to 1,500 jobs or
44.8 percent were indirect and induced jobs spread
throughout all sectors of the state economy.

Each of the three state universities has at least one major
department of astronomy, planetary, and/or space sciences.
7.

TABLE 2
Economic and Tax Revenue Impacts of
Astronomy, Planetary and Space Sciences
In Arizona, FY 2006, at glance

Non-earnings expenditures (dollars in millions)

Operations-related expenditures
in Arizona
Capital investment
Locally spent benefits
Out-of-state visitor spending
Total direct expenditures

$21.4
$11.8
$5.2
$16.1
$54.5

Earnings (dollars in millions)

Earnings in APSS organizations
Indirect and induced earnings
Total earnings impact

$84.0
$54.6
$138.6

Tax revenues (dollars in millions)

State revenues
County revenues
City revenues
Total tax revenue impact

$6.8
$2.0
$3.1
$11.9

Additional value added

$47.8

Total monetary impact

$252.8 million

Employment impact

Direct jobs in APSS organizations
Indirect and induced jobs
Total employment impact

1,830
1,483
3,328

Impacts revisited 1: Linkages with industry
through purchases of operations-related goods
and services

The $42.7 million8 impact of direct and indirect
spending in FY 2006 was distributed throughout
the economy; practically every industry sector was
affected. The largest economic benefit was to
professional, scientific, and technical services
($10.8 million), followed by the trade sector
(combined wholesale and retail, $8.6 million),

8.

manufacturing ($6.0 million), construction ($4.9
million), and administrative, support, and waste
management services ($3.7 million). Other sectors
benefited as well, such as transportation and
utilities ($2.6 million), finance, insurance and real
estate services ($2.3 million), and information
services ($1.6 million). The remaining $2.2 million
was spread over a variety of sectors, such as repair
and maintenance services, accommodation and
food services, and government services.
Impacts revisited 2: Indirect and induced
employment by sector

Figure 1 shows the distribution of the 1,483
jobs that depend on APSS research but are outside
of the APSS research organizations. The majority
of jobs (17.3 percent) are in trade, including retail
and wholesale. More than 14 percent of jobs is in
each, professional and business services, and
health services, followed by food services and
drinking places (13.6 percent). Personal services
account for 7.3 percent, followed closely by
finance, insurance, and real estate with 7 percent.
Accommodation services, transportation and
utilities, arts and entertainment, construction, and
manufacturing account for between 3.1 and 5.2
percent. All other sectors account for the
remaining 5.9 percent.

Conclusions
While this study is the first one to present the
most comprehensive assessment of the economic
activity of Arizona’s astronomy, planetary, and
space sciences to date, the scope of the study was
limited to measurable impacts. This study only
traces money associated with APSS organizations
in Arizona and visitors to those organizations.
An important segment of APSS-related activity
in the state is not measured, specifically
manufacturers and other industries that are the
result of APSS activity in the state. This study
measures the impact on the private sector only if
APSS organizations purchase goods or services
from them or if employees make purchases from
them. But there are many more private sector
impacts associated with astronomy, planetary, and
space sciences. In some instances, entire economic

sectors, e.g., the optics industry, are the direct
result of the strong presence of APSS
organizations in Arizona. In other instances, parts
of certain Arizona industries, such as missiles,
electronics and computers, scientific instruments,
engineering services, and robotics have close
connections to astronomy, planetary, and space
sciences. Sometimes the connections are due to
graduates in these scientific fields working in the
private sector. Skills learned in these sciences are
surprisingly transferable to the private sector.9
Sometimes the relationships involve APSS
scientists working with private sector companies.
In addition, this study does not capture all the
broad benefits that the APSS organizations bring
to the state of Arizona. For many years, these
organizations have increased the visibility of the
state to the rest of the country and the world. It is
not possible to place a monetary value on the role
APSS has played in helping to establish Arizona as
a center of research and technology.
The full report “Astronomy, Planetary, and Space
Sciences in Arizona; An Economic and Tax revenue
Impact Study” is available at
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu
1 Launched in August 2007; The University of Arizona is the first
public university to lead a mission to Mars.
http://phoenix.lpl.arizona.edu
2 American Academy of Sciences, 1991 American Decadal Review
of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
3 Battelle report 2003.
4 The economic and tax revenue study is an integral part of a
larger document “Astronomy, Planetary Sciences and Space
Sciences research: Opportunities for Arizona’s Economic
Growth” produced by AASTA with a purpose of increasing the
awareness of this important field.
5 Source: AASTA report based on survey 2007.
6 Developed and maintained by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.
7 Pavlakovich-Kochi, V., A.H. Charney, L. Mwaniki-Lyman and S.
Umashankar. The University of Arizona Economic and Tax
Revenue Impacts, Fiscal Year 2004. http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu
8 Includes direct $21.4 million and indirect $6.2 million in
operations-related expenditures combined with $11.8 million
direct and $3.3 million indirect construction/capital
investments in FY 2006.
9 ARA Group. 1999. A Division of KPMG Consulting LP.
Estimation of the Economic Impacts of Canadian Astronomy.
Report prepared for the National Research Council. Accessed at
http://www.casca.ca/lrp/vol2/economic/Economic.htm on
2/6/2006

More than 350 scientists with doctoral degrees and another 600
professional and technical personnel conduct research and educational
activities in Arizona’s observatories and academic institutions.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

19,750
17,975
1,775
9.0

19,875
17,750
2,125
10.7

20,225
18,375
1,850
9.1

19,950
18,525
1,425
7.1

20,100
18,675
1,425
7.1

-0.1
2.3
-24.0
-23.9

-0.6
0.2
-8.2
-7.5

19,900
7,550
950
18,950
1,850
4,750
12,350
3,325
9,025

19,275
7,550
1,000
18,275
1,850
4,700
11,725
3,050
8,675

20,625
7,675
975
19,650
1,825
4,875
12,950
3,275
9,675

20,650
7,675
975
19,675
1,800
4,900
12,975
3,250
9,725

20,675
7,625
1,050
19,625
1,775
4,800
13,050
3,225
9,825

1.6
3.4
16.7
0.9
-10.1
6.7
0.6
-2.3
1.6

0.8
3.5
12.7
0.3
-2.3
4.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.9

14,627
7,223
1,172
6,232
2,130
9,281
1,408

14,820
6,921
1,257
6,643
2,454
7,977
1,714

13,247
6,284
1,042
5,921
2,359
9,881
1,282

13,927
7,661
989
5,276
2,048
7,980
1,378

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.1
10.7
-11.8
-1.0
-9.6
-10.0
-6.5

-5.7
-0.4
-3.6
-11.4
-10.0
8.3
2.5

36,725
34,350
2,375
6.5

37,100
34,325
2,775
7.5

37,200
34,825
2,375
6.4

37,600
35,575
2,025
5.4

37,350
35,200
2,150
5.8

-0.9
0.4
-17.3
-16.6

-2.2
-1.5
-10.5
-8.4

29,000
19,775
4,175
3,325
850
24,825
6,125
775
625
1,100
3,275
2,875
825
9,225
1,750
7,475

28,825
19,800
4,225
3,425
800
24,600
6,200
775
625
1,100
3,175
2,950
750
9,025
1,625
7,400

29,925
20,000
4,250
3,425
825
25,675
6,100
775
600
1,100
3,425
3,025
725
9,925
1,700
8,225

30,075
19,925
4,225
3,400
825
25,850
6,050
750
600
1,075
3,500
3,000
725
10,150
1,750
8,400

29,850
19,675
4,100
3,275
825
25,750
6,100
725
575
1,100
3,475
2,925
675
10,175
1,650
8,525

-0.7
-1.5
-2.4
0.0
-10.8
-0.4
-2.4
-12.1
-11.5
0.0
3.0
4.5
-12.9
1.0
0.0
1.2

-1.5
-0.1
2.6
6.7
-10.7
-2.1
2.5
0.0
-3.5
-9.0
3.5
-7.0
-7.3
-4.0
-3.1
-4.2

97,208
72,540
9,104
15,564
5,319
28,465
3,496

96,404
71,560
9,378
15,465
5,714
25,348
3,718

91,623
68,394
9,364
13,864
5,522
26,520
3,232

87,322
64,301
9,578
13,443
5,218
26,541
3,740

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-8.2
-6.1
3.2
-22.2
-29.0
26.3
5.4

2.0
1.8
5.8
0.8
1.5
8.2
7.9

53
47

39
35

28
28

31
31

30
30

-34.8
-34.8

-21.7
-22.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

14,325
13,725
600
4.2

14,475
13,825
650
4.5

14,800
14,200
600
4.1

14,900
14,375
525
3.5

15,175
14,625
550
3.6

8.0
8.9
-12.0
-18.5

10.9
12.0
-9.5
-18.4

8,500
6,100
1,450
7,050
1,800
2,850
2,400
475
1,925

8,375
6,075
1,525
6,850
1,775
2,775
2,300
475
1,825

8,775
6,050
1,450
7,325
1,750
2,850
2,725
450
2,275

8,950
6,075
1,425
7,525
1,775
2,875
2,875
450
2,425

9,100
6,150
1,425
7,675
1,775
2,950
2,950
450
2,500

6.4
9.3
35.7
2.3
6.0
1.7
0.9
5.9
0.0

11.1
16.0
76.4
4.1
7.0
4.7
1.8
7.2
0.9

27,328
22,142
2,363
2,822
965
4,670

27,607
22,461
2,194
2,952
1,091
3,178

27,391
22,228
2,267
2,896
1,153
5,969

25,695
20,484
2,343
2,867
1,113
4,694

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.9
9.5
24.4
31.6
20.2
25.6

18.4
18.3
17.8
19.7
21.5
18.9

69,600
67,100
2,500
3.6

71,000
68,100
2,900
4.1

69,400
66,800
2,600
3.7

70,300
68,100
2,200
3.1

70,400
68,200
2,200
3.1

0.4
1.2
-18.5
-18.9

-0.1
0.5
-12.1
-11.9

65,100
45,700
7,400
3,500
3,900
57,700
10,100
400
1,700
3,500
7,000
13,600
2,000
19,400
3,100
16,300

65,400
46,200
7,500
3,600
3,900
57,900
10,100
400
1,700
3,400
6,900
14,100
2,100
19,200
3,000
16,200

65,300
45,900
7,300
3,500
3,800
58,000
10,200
400
1,700
3,400
7,100
13,800
2,000
19,400
3,100
16,300

66,100
45,900
7,300
3,500
3,800
58,800
10,300
400
1,700
3,300
7,200
13,700
2,000
20,200
3,000
17,200

66,000
45,500
7,300
3,500
3,800
58,700
10,300
400
1,700
3,200
7,200
13,400
2,000
20,500
2,900
17,600

0.0
-0.4
-1.4
-5.4
2.7
0.2
4.0
-20.0
-5.6
-5.9
0.0
-0.7
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.1

0.5
0.7
1.5
-4.2
7.3
0.4
2.0
-12.1
-1.9
-0.7
-0.5
1.0
2.2
0.1
-4.2
0.9

159,268
99,336
33,916
26,016
8,891
46,400
26,048

156,807
94,627
34,897
27,283
10,080
37,439
26,715

155,288
98,053
32,648
24,586
9,793
36,723
25,283

145,638
91,951
31,098
22,589
8,768
42,031
25,022

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-9.2
-13.2
-0.2
-3.1
-11.6
27.1
9.0

1.8
1.5
6.7
-2.6
-0.3
10.5
8.8

40
40

50
50

58
58

25
25

25
25

-68.4
-68.4

-59.5
-45.4

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

4,075
3,950
125
3.1

4,150
4,000
150
3.6

4,225
4,100
125
3.0

4,250
4,150
100
2.4

4,325
4,225
100
2.3

7.5
9.0
-33.3
-38.0

11.1
11.9
-7.2
-16.4

4,950
4,375
3,625
1,325
350
400
575
50
525

4,975
4,450
3,700
1,275
325
425
525
50
475

5,250
4,700
3,950
1,300
350
400
550
50
500

5,300
4,750
4,025
1,275
325
400
550
50
500

5,300
4,725
4,050
1,250
300
375
575
50
525

12.2
12.5
20.0
-7.4
-7.7
-25.0
9.5
0.0
10.5

16.8
18.4
22.3
3.7
12.9
-4.8
5.8
0.0
6.3

11,555
10,553
252
750
256
10,604
1,327

13,588
12,503
403
681
252
7,454
705

14,095
13,081
355
659
263
6,666
693

12,300
11,211
404
685
266
8,583
777

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

27.0
24.9
64.1
48.8
35.9
51.1
13.2

-39.4
-44.1
26.8
-4.2
-1.7
99.6
41.6

97,900
94,500
3,400
3.5

98,700
95,000
3,700
3.7

97,600
94,100
3,500
3.6

99,000
95,800
3,200
3.2

99,900
96,500
3,400
3.4

2.3
2.8
-10.5
-12.5

2.3
2.7
-5.7
-7.8

65,100
54,200
13,100
9,300
3,800
52,000
12,600
600
2,500
5,500
9,300
8,600
2,000
10,900
1,300
9,600

65,100
54,100
13,300
9,400
3,900
51,800
12,600
600
2,500
5,400
9,100
8,600
2,000
11,000
1,300
9,700

66,600
54,500
13,000
9,200
3,800
53,600
12,600
600
2,500
5,600
9,500
8,700
2,000
12,100
1,300
10,800

67,000
54,400
12,900
9,100
3,800
54,100
12,700
600
2,500
5,400
9,700
8,600
2,000
12,600
1,300
11,300

66,800
54,000
12,600
8,900
3,700
54,200
12,700
600
2,500
5,300
9,800
8,600
1,900
12,800
1,300
11,500

2.3
0.9
-4.5
-4.3
-5.1
4.0
3.3
0.0
4.2
3.9
2.1
4.9
-9.5
8.5
0.0
9.5

3.2
2.7
0.1
0.4
-0.4
3.9
3.5
0.0
3.5
6.2
4.2
3.8
-4.3
5.2
3.5
5.4

185,067
140,428
23,665
20,974
7,168
69,450
9,978

173,366
130,758
23,129
19,478
7,197
66,064
8,553

176,083
134,905
23,176
18,003
7,171
57,418
8,475

167,308
124,967
24,180
18,161
7,049
58,102
9,260

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-3.6
-5.5
8.2
-5.0
-13.2
-26.3
11.7

0.4
-0.1
5.7
-1.8
0.3
-14.0
10.3

140
138

119
117

124
124

95
93

103
90

-27.5
-35.3

-52.6
-52.5

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

21,150
20,250
900
4.3

21,450
20,500
950
4.4

21,725
20,825
900
4.1

21,225
20,425
800
3.8

21,350
20,475
875
4.1

2.3
3.3
-16.7
-18.5

1.2
2.1
-15.1
-16.0

14,850
10,175
2,925
11,925
2,375
4,875
4,675
550
4,125

14,775
10,150
3,025
11,750
2,325
4,800
4,625
550
4,075

15,125
10,225
2,975
12,150
2,350
4,900
4,900
550
4,350

14,975
10,075
2,925
12,050
2,350
4,800
4,900
525
4,375

14,950
10,075
2,975
11,975
2,375
4,725
4,875
450
4,425

2.7
2.8
11.2
0.8
1.1
-1.0
2.6
-10.0
4.1

2.3
3.4
12.2
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.1
-5.6
0.8

41,921
27,893
5,743
8,285
2,831
8,300
1,716

41,512
27,967
5,598
7,947
2,936
10,280
1,738

39,148
27,429
5,036
6,683
2,662
9,885
1,463

37,156
25,417
5,097
6,642
2,578
9,032
1,409

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

3.2
2.7
-3.2
11.0
1.4
2.6
15.5

3.9
3.4
6.2
3.8
5.3
5.8
13.2

92,125
88,225
3,900
4.2

92,400
88,075
4,325
4.7

91,725
87,350
4,375
4.8

91,525
87,575
3,950
4.3

91,050
86,925
4,125
4.5

-0.8
-0.9
1.2
2.0

0.2
-0.1
7.5
7.3

54,775
46,625
10,500
6,850
3,650
44,275
11,425
1,075
2,825
3,850
7,350
6,800
2,800
8,150
550
7,600

53,950
45,750
10,350
6,750
3,600
43,600
11,350
1,000
2,825
3,625
7,200
6,750
2,650
8,200
525
7,675

54,700
45,850
10,225
6,625
3,600
44,475
11,350
1,025
2,775
3,600
7,500
6,725
2,650
8,850
525
8,325

54,400
45,500
10,000
6,500
3,500
44,400
11,200
1,000
2,825
3,575
7,550
6,675
2,675
8,900
500
8,400

54,025
45,125
9,900
6,375
3,525
44,125
11,200
975
2,775
3,550
7,625
6,475
2,625
8,900
500
8,400

-2.1
-3.4
-13.2
-14.1
-11.3
0.8
-2.4
-4.9
5.7
-5.3
5.2
-1.5
1.0
5.0
0.0
5.3

-0.4
-1.7
-8.9
-9.1
-8.4
1.9
-2.0
1.5
8.8
-6.9
5.3
0.4
3.9
7.8
-2.8
8.5

172,925
125,416
18,719
28,790
9,839
52,820
4,865

160,785
112,098
20,240
28,448
10,511
44,536
5,005

158,550
116,060
17,057
25,433
10,130
50,962
4,556

147,838
108,378
16,457
23,003
8,929
37,032
3,986

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.7
-5.8
-6.4
2.5
-6.4
-34.4
-9.6

-2.9
-3.7
5.0
-4.6
-3.1
-22.6
-2.1

75
73

118
101

137
91

132
123

61
61

-51.2
-38.4

-51.6
-49.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
12.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

7,475
7,100
375
5.0

7,750
7,350
400
5.2

7,650
7,275
375
4.9

7,675
7,325
350
4.6

7,450
7,075
375
5.0

-3.2
-2.7
-11.8
-8.8

-0.4
0.4
-12.3
-12.1

5,400
2,725
375
5,025
1,325
1,025
2,675
300
2,375

5,450
2,750
375
5,075
1,325
1,050
2,700
325
2,375

5,475
2,700
350
5,125
1,325
1,025
2,775
325
2,450

5,475
2,700
350
5,125
1,325
1,025
2,775
325
2,450

5,350
2,625
350
5,000
1,300
975
2,725
325
2,400

-4.0
-9.5
-26.3
-2.0
-3.7
-9.3
1.9
0.0
2.1

1.1
-6.3
-13.4
2.6
0.5
-11.0
10.1
3.4
11.1

19,469
8,697
2,357
8,415
2,876
2,353
500

18,340
8,307
2,149
7,885
2,913
3,100
572

16,750
8,122
1,876
6,752
2,689
2,014
483

14,956
7,425
1,658
5,873
2,280
2,432
360

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.7
-6.4
7.1
5.3
-3.9
12.0
-22.0

11.5
0.7
6.5
30.2
29.2
7.0
-2.1

75,900
63,600
12,300
16.2

79,500
64,000
15,500
19.5

79,300
63,200
16,100
20.3

77,100
65,000
12,100
15.7

75,800
65,500
10,300
13.6

0.9
2.3
-7.2
-8.1

-0.6
0.0
-4.0
-3.4

51,700
37,000
7,300
4,700
2,600
44,400
9,900
1,400
1,500
3,600
6,100
5,700
1,500
14,700
3,400
11,300

49,400
36,500
7,100
4,600
2,500
42,300
9,800
1,400
1,500
3,600
6,100
5,500
1,500
12,900
3,400
9,500

50,800
36,100
7,100
4,600
2,500
43,700
9,700
1,300
1,400
3,500
6,100
5,500
1,500
14,700
3,400
11,300

51,400
36,300
6,900
4,500
2,400
44,500
9,800
1,400
1,400
3,500
6,200
5,600
1,500
15,100
3,400
11,700

52,400
37,200
7,000
4,500
2,500
45,400
10,200
1,400
1,500
3,600
6,200
5,800
1,500
15,200
3,400
11,800

1.4
0.8
-7.9
-15.1
8.7
2.9
4.1
16.7
-6.3
0.0
1.6
7.4
-6.3
2.7
3.0
2.6

0.6
-0.1
-5.8
-8.8
0.0
1.7
0.2
15.2
-4.2
-2.7
3.6
3.9
-2.1
2.4
5.2
1.7

133,011
95,177
16,014
21,820
7,457
37,286
2,908

121,413
86,864
13,994
20,555
7,595
33,262
2,718

124,110
91,459
13,967
18,684
7,442
31,954
3,297

133,496
100,734
14,197
18,565
7,207
29,942
4,354

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.3
4.3
6.8
28.4
17.2
-35.3
17.2

3.1
3.6
6.7
-2.4
-1.3
-4.2
8.8

74
74

94
94

55
55

49
49

84
84

-21.5
-17.6

-46.4
-45.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

16,100
15,025
1,075
6.7

16,550
15,025
1,525
9.2

16,525
14,825
1,700
10.3

16,350
14,825
1,525
9.3

16,300
14,825
1,475
9.0

-1.7
-0.8
-9.2
-7.7

0.7
0.7
1.3
0.6

13,475
10,100
1,100
12,375
4,925
4,075
3,375
1,400
1,975

13,300
9,925
1,100
12,200
4,700
4,125
3,375
1,400
1,975

13,325
9,725
1,125
12,200
4,525
4,075
3,600
1,400
2,200

13,200
9,550
1,075
12,125
4,475
4,000
3,650
1,400
2,250

13,225
9,550
1,025
12,200
4,600
3,925
3,675
1,400
2,275

-2.0
-4.5
-10.9
-1.2
-7.1
0.6
5.0
1.8
7.1

0.6
0.2
-2.6
0.9
-2.5
4.8
1.9
8.5
-2.0

45,305
34,199
5,000
6,106
2,087
10,306
1,146

41,637
32,289
3,842
5,507
2,035
7,885
971

38,752
29,786
3,195
5,770
2,298
6,007
1,022

38,003
28,568
4,146
5,289
2,053
8,453
1,031

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.9
-1.1
5.1
-4.3
-12.6
-5.5
32.4

6.0
5.9
14.0
1.3
2.0
-4.7
-2.1

48
48

64
59

25
25

22
22

23
21

-34.3
-40.0

-39.4
-39.0

56,400
54,150
2,250
4.0

56,625
54,200
2,425
4.3

56,425
54,125
2,300
4.1

56,600
54,550
2,050
3.6

56,975
54,800
2,175
3.8

0.8
1.4
-13.0
-13.7

0.3
0.7
-8.0
-8.3

37,900
25,975
3,725
2,800
925
34,175
6,850
425
950
5,000
4,000
4,075
950
11,925
4,750
7,175

37,425
25,800
3,650
2,750
900
33,775
6,800
425
975
4,950
4,075
3,975
950
11,625
4,800
6,825

37,800
25,650
3,575
2,675
900
34,225
6,725
425
950
5,000
4,050
4,000
925
12,150
4,800
7,350

37,950
25,650
3,500
2,575
925
34,450
6,725
425
975
5,050
4,100
3,950
925
12,300
4,775
7,525

38,050
25,750
3,450
2,525
925
34,600
6,850
425
950
4,975
4,100
4,075
925
12,300
4,675
7,625

0.3
0.4
-7.4
-9.8
0.0
1.2
2.2
0.0
-7.3
3.1
1.9
3.8
-7.5
0.2
-3.1
2.3

0.9
1.6
0.9
-1.4
8.1
0.9
2.2
-4.7
-6.6
5.1
2.2
1.7
-6.7
-0.6
-4.3
1.9

92,004
68,040
10,670
13,294
4,543
28,836
3,990

87,470
64,600
10,045
12,824
4,738
24,251
3,329

88,931
66,744
9,880
12,307
4,902
27,852
3,448

85,567
64,167
9,912
11,489
4,460
28,051
3,617

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

0.2
-5.6
5.9
42.4
30.0
9.0
44.3

4.9
4.3
11.5
3.2
4.7
6.4
26.0

35
35

66
66

55
55

21
21

54
54

-14.3
-14.3

-37.0
-36.7

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

453.5
437.6
15.9
3.3

456.1
438.7
17.4
3.5

452.4
435.9
16.5
3.6

459.7
444.3
15.4
3.2

464.7
448.4
16.3
3.5

1.9
2.4
-9.9
-10.3

2.5
2.9
-7.9
-10.2

382.9
1.9
28.1
29.0
4.0
12.0
9.8
44.0
9.2
6.0
17.8
51.2
54.5
6.0
8.0
29.0
16.9
10.7
60.8
32.7

381.3
2.0
27.9
29.1
3.9
12.1
9.9
44.0
9.3
5.9
17.7
51.4
54.6
5.5
8.0
28.0
16.7
10.8
60.5
32.4

385.3
2.1
27.8
29.2
3.9
12.2
10.0
44.6
9.3
5.8
16.4
51.7
55.7
5.6
8.1
28.5
16.6
10.8
63.1
35.5

392.6
2.2
27.6
29.1
3.9
12.2
10.0
44.8
9.3
5.7
16.4
51.7
56.3
5.9
8.3
28.9
16.6
10.7
69.1
41.6

393.9
2.3
27.1
29.2
3.8
12.1
10.0
45.3
9.2
5.7
16.4
51.4
56.6
5.7
8.5
29.0
16.8
10.7
70.0
42.4

1.7
43.8
-7.2
0.0
-11.6
2.5
6.4
3.9
1.1
-16.2
-6.3
2.4
4.4
5.6
11.8
4.3
4.3
3.9
0.9
-2.3

3.1
23.0
1.3
-0.4
-9.8
0.7
5.4
2.6
1.9
-13.5
1.0
5.6
4.7
13.9
8.8
4.5
5.8
5.0
1.4
-1.1

985,962
642,641
140,544
115,638
87,139
210,797
22,426

941,919
611,501
134,991
114,430
80,997
199,979
20,239

968,501
643,297
134,976
110,017
80,211
181,872
20,377

940,953
609,406
138,372
115,612
77,563
213,006
22,491

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.0
2.4
7.4
5.0
25.2
-2.9
7.4

3.5
2.2
7.5
8.1
1.2
7.6
1.5

638
610
28

533
511
22

500
473
27

333
313
20

541
316
225

1.5
-36.1
488.9

-34.6
-35.1
-28.2

365,933
1,226
298,477

295,343
1,098
268,983

279,137
1,019
273,932

190,574
683
279,025

...
...
...

-30.3
-36.6
9.9

-15.6
-16.7
1.3

361,922
21,512

364,717
20,115

349,839
20,497

...
...

...
...

11.6
-15.3

2.5
-8.9

III
2006

IV
2006

I
2007

984.3
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.8

990.5
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

29,453
20,158
2,291
148
5,997
5,441
29,922

30,081
20,567
2,336
151
6,136
5,564
30,368

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2007

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2007

III
2007

996.7
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

1,002.9
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

1,009.1
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

2.5
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.9

2.5
-0.2
0.9
1.7
5.1

30,698
20,974
2,383
153
6,265
5,687
30,799

31,330
21,376
2,428
156
6,420
5,806
31,239

31,962
21,778
2,473
158
6,574
5,924
31,674

8.5
8.0
8.0
7.0
9.6
8.9
5.9

8.8
8.1
8.0
6.5
11.4
8.6
6.2

www.e br .e lle r .ar izona.edu

15.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

2,057.8
1,995.3
62.5
2.9

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

2,075.2
2,007.7
67.5
3.1

2,052.4
1,986.7
65.7
3.2

2,078.6
2,018.2
60.4
2.8

2,082.0
2,018.4
63.6
3.0

1.9
2.4
-10.5
-11.8

3.0
3.4
-8.2
-10.8

1,936.8
3.2
184.6
111.8
39.9
14.8
27.2
90.2
235.0
8.8
55.1
32.4
116.1
41.4
339.1
34.9
167.9
26.4
28.7
135.1
77.7
21.6
199.6
93.2

1,922.3
3.2
184.7
111.7
39.9
14.8
27.2
90.9
235.4
8.8
55.3
32.5
117.1
41.3
338.5
33.8
167.4
25.4
27.7
132.0
77.1
21.8
190.5
83.9

1,947.8
3.2
182.7
111.5
39.8
14.8
27.1
91.1
237.5
8.8
55.4
31.9
116.6
41.1
341.7
34.4
168.5
25.9
27.5
133.2
77.7
21.8
210.2
104.7

1,964.6
3.2
180.7
111.6
39.6
14.8
27.2
91.3
237.1
8.9
55.7
31.5
116.6
41.0
344.5
34.7
169.5
26.4
27.7
136.0
78.5
21.8
220.7
116.1

1,967.6
3.2
177.5
111.2
39.5
14.8
27.2
91.7
238.2
8.8
55.7
31.7
116.3
41.3
344.4
34.7
170.1
26.9
28.5
137.0
78.0
21.9
223.3
118.2

1.8
14.3
-7.8
-1.8
-3.9
0.7
0.0
3.7
3.9
1.1
-0.9
-2.8
-0.1
2.0
4.5
4.8
3.0
9.3
1.4
5.7
5.3
0.9
1.9
1.5

3.9
18.8
2.1
-0.7
-2.5
0.1
-0.6
4.3
4.8
3.4
-0.6
-3.9
2.5
4.8
6.6
7.6
3.4
10.4
1.9
5.6
7.0
0.5
3.5
3.7

4,814,747
3,219,665
629,219
544,418
421,445
1,436,948
90,685

4,438,915
2,948,297
604,357
489,698
396,562
1,336,740
65,928

4,439,675
2,956,980
604,291
497,340
381,064
1,307,368
71,843

4,480,956
2,945,870
619,497
542,444
373,146
1,308,348
94,221

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.2
-3.3
7.3
3.7
8.9
-13.4
4.2

3.0
1.3
7.8
6.5
5.0
1.9
6.7

4,259
2,902
163
1,193

2,677
2,278
139
259

2,620
2,147
149
323

2,623
1,220
57
1,346

1,332
1,166
60
106

-40.6
-33.0
-41.3
-73.6

-21.9
-27.6
-17.8
9.4

1,900,103
5,439
349,348

1,621,458
4,727
343,020

1,488,430
4,350
342,168

1,050,713
3,421
307,136

...
...
...

-40.7
-36.9
-6.0

-20.3
-21.1
0.7

3,660,192
43,371

3,725,800
44,519

3,602,595
45,320

3,265,912
42,559

3,501,614
45,393

4.0
-1.0

2.2
-1.5

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

16.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
III
2006

IV
2006

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
4,108.4
4,140.9
Natural Increase
10.2
10.3
Births
17.1
17.3
Deaths
6.9
7.0
Net Migration
26.4
22.3
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
140,266
143,091
Earnings by Place of Work
113,271
115,405
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
12,498
12,719
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-143
-144
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
21,946
22,416
Plus: Transfer Payments
17,691
18,134
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
34,141
34,556
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

4,173.3
10.4
17.4
7.1
22.1

4,205.7
10.4
17.6
7.2
21.9

4,238.1
10.5
17.8
7.2
21.8

3.2
3.7
4.0
4.4
-17.4

3.5
3.5
4.2
5.2
-39.3

145,898
117,547
12,944
-145
22,864
18,576
34,960

148,803
119,736
13,168
-147
23,378
19,004
35,381

151,708
121,925
13,393
-148
23,892
19,431
35,797

8.2
7.6
7.2
-3.2
8.9
9.8
4.8

8.8
8.2
7.6
-5.3
10.3
9.6
5.0

6,335.8
14.5
25.6
11.2
46.8

6,395.2
14.7
25.9
11.3
42.8

6,450.3
14.5
25.6
11.1
38.1

6,500.8
14.7
25.6
10.9
33.7

6,548.1
14.4
25.7
11.4
31.9

3.4
-0.8
0.3
1.9
-31.9

3.7
7.8
3.0
-2.6
-27.6

199,985
150,554
16,656
709
34,530
30,850

202,319
152,676
16,835
719
34,363
31,397

208,572
157,007
17,350
740
35,368
32,811

211,615
158,974
17,523
749
36,301
33,119

214,372
160,602
17,662
757
36,944
33,736

7.2
6.7
6.0
6.8
7.0
9.4

8.1
7.6
7.0
7.7
7.7
10.6

110,744
23,829
15,815
89
15,726
31,564
40,968

112,649
24,038
15,715
103
15,612
31,636
41,302

116,054
24,601
15,977
249
15,729
32,335
41,838

117,531
24,904
15,898
179
15,719
32,552
42,221

118,748
25,163
...
...
...
32,738
...

7.2
5.6
-1.4
141.9
-2.0
3.7
4.8

8.3
6.7
0.5
-15.2
0.6
4.2
3.7

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

AUG
2007

SEP
2007

2,229,546
130,705
731,674
1,367,167
159,409
18,058
99,751
41,600

2,525,417
138,902
835,979
1,550,536
159,854
20,325
97,806
41,723

2,199,619
130,204
785,089
1,284,326
130,557
18,195
84,098
28,264

1,647,854
129,531
608,600
909,723
161,814
19,372
108,163
34,279

1,412,124
126,186
525,198
760,740
200,202
25,729
143,212
31,261

-0.1
-3.4
4.3
-2.3
8.1
-3.1
9.2
13.5

-1.2
0.7
2.3
-3.5
3.1
-2.1
3.5
6.8

896,805
1,703,078
712,365

909,638
1,883,356
703,378

651,774
1,931,193
687,794

885,138
1,626,280
657,609

940,280
1,755,586
711,682

63.8
5.0
-3.0

22.2
10.2
-6.4

208.4
203.9

208.3
203.7

207.9
203.2

208.5
203.9

208.9
204.3

3.5
3.7

2.6
2.5

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

OCT
2007

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr .eller .ar izona.e du

17.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 & EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

JUN
2007

JUL
2007

3,022.9
2,912.9
110.0
3.4

SEP
2007

OCT
2007

3,050.9
2,928.6
122.3
3.7

3,021.4
2,902.5
118.9
3.7

3,054.8
2,948.8
106.0
3.3

3,062.9
2,953.7
109.2
3.5

1.7
2.3
-10.3
-14.4

2.5
2.9
-7.3
-9.7

2,690.3
11.5
244.7
150.8
19.7
44.5
27.4
35.9
109.5
329.7
12.4
70.7
43.4
133.1
54.1
416.7
44.1
254.9
37.0
48.2
193.7
106.7
53.1
340.1
159.4
40.4

2,670.7
11.6
244.9
150.7
19.6
44.5
27.6
35.8
110.0
330.4
12.5
70.7
43.4
134.0
54.1
415.9
42.4
254.4
36.0
47.1
189.5
105.8
52.5
329.0
147.9
40.9

2,708.5
11.9
242.2
150.6
19.6
44.3
27.7
35.7
110.1
332.8
12.5
70.7
42.9
132.0
53.9
419.5
44.7
256.4
36.5
46.7
191.4
106.4
53.1
358.5
179.8
41.3

2,732.5
12.1
239.9
150.6
19.6
44.2
27.8
35.8
110.5
332.3
12.5
71.1
42.6
132.1
53.8
422.0
45.8
257.8
37.0
47.1
194.4
107.3
52.8
375.0
198.2
40.6

2,737.5
12.2
235.8
150.3
19.5
44.1
27.8
35.8
110.8
334.0
12.5
71.4
42.8
131.8
54.1
421.4
46.0
258.8
37.5
47.9
195.4
107.0
52.4
379.6
202.0
40.8

1.7
17.3
-7.4
-1.4
1.0
-3.9
2.6
1.4
4.0
3.2
1.6
-0.1
-3.2
-1.2
2.5
4.0
3.8
3.0
10.9
1.7
4.4
5.0
0.8
1.7
0.6
0.7

3.4
17.1
1.5
-0.5
2.4
-2.7
1.2
0.9
4.6
4.0
1.4
-0.2
-4.6
2.1
4.7
6.4
5.4
3.6
9.3
2.2
4.4
6.4
0.4
2.7
1.6
0.9

17.76
15.76
15.95
12.36
19.47

17.94
15.85
15.83
11.99
19.79

17.99
15.96
15.76
11.90
20.12

18.04
16.18
15.78
11.98
19.95

18.21
16.43
15.79
11.98
20.40

6.7
8.5
1.3
-0.6
9.5

6.2
4.7
3.5
-1.1
7.0

6,964,777
4,573,951
934,143
789,031
667,652
228,179
894,538
301,438
95,074
322,491
1,956,516
172,345
170,490

6,492,467
4,230,754
897,233
731,254
633,227
233,965
853,103
311,875
86,937
332,933
1,807,494
192,386
141,905

6,510,109
4,282,922
897,136
727,220
602,832
240,115
897,130
293,763
73,266
315,719
1,761,091
174,470
145,455

6,492,956
4,210,540
919,710
778,116
584,590
226,920
1,005,138
299,301
75,671
312,739
1,784,226
160,095
171,646

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

0.3
-2.6
6.3
3.7
9.4
-0.1
17.5
4.7
12.9
3.9
-12.1
-12.9
6.3

2.9
1.3
7.7
6.9
3.3
5.2
9.2
6.7
6.3
6.1
1.5
2.8
6.4

5,425
4,047
201
1,177

3,763
3,325
169
270

3,627
3,094
164
369

3,382
1,989
74
1,319

2,309
1,872
160
277

-34.5
-36.8
3.1
-31.6

-29.1
-33.9
-21.1
7.7

895
667
15
213

889
695
21
173

1,021
783
18
220

908
683
13
212

1,117
842
29
245

62.6
61.9
190.0
56.1

70.1
65.7
61.9
87.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
18.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2006

IV
2006

I
2007

II
2007

III
2007

207.3
203.4
199.1

206.5
201.7
197.0

209.2
203.8
198.9

212.6
207.7
203.2

212.6
208.2
203.6

2.6
2.4
2.3

2.9
2.4
2.3

117.0
115.4

117.5
115.1

118.8
116.1

119.5
117.3

119.8
117.8

2.4
2.1

2.7
2.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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