J U L Y

2 0 0 7

•

S U M M E R

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Construction Jobs Are Evaporating
Construction Employment, Arizona
Seasonally Adjusted, 000s

The Odds of Recession
Have Increased
Significantly
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
June 1, 2007

The nation’s economy slowed sharply as
last year came to an end and real GDP
grew by only 0.6% during the first quarter.
Arizona’s economy lost steam as well, due
to the drag from reduced construction
activity and subdued spending by
consumers. Employment growth is
slowing and construction jobs have started
falling. The homebuilding industry
remains in recession, with no prospect for
improvement in the near term. Look for
Arizona’s economy to grow at the slowest
pace since the 2001 recession, but there is
a large risk of recession before year end.
We may be in one already!

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

Employment Revised Higher,
But Slowing
In its annual revisions of employment, the
Arizona Department of Economic Security boosted
estimates for both 2005 and 2006 by 1,900 and
13,600 jobs, respectively. The new estimates show
that job growth state-wide was 5.4% in both
years, the strongest growth since 1994-96.
Even though the 2006 growth rate was revised
higher, a slowing trend was evident as the year
came to a close. With data through April, year-onyear growth has retreated to 3.7% and is poised to
move lower as the year progresses. The helpwanted index for metro Phoenix has plunged in
recent months, signaling weak hiring in the near
term. For all of 2007, we are forecasting an
increase of 2.8%. Next year is even slower, with a
1.7% increase.
As expected, construction employment is now
declining and will become a major drag on overall
job growth. So far some 4,000 jobs have evaporated since the peak of 253,100 jobs was reached last
December. The peak would have come sooner and
with larger losses were it not for the presence of
“undocumented” (and uncounted) workers. We are
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

forecasting a decline of 30,000 construction
jobs or more and lasting into early 2009
(Exhibit 1).
Also, Arizona’s manufacturing employment
has not grown in over a year. Although the
industry has added a little over 13,000 jobs
since the last recession, it remains 25,000
below the peak level reached in November
2000. Near-term prospects are not bright: both
production and orders components of the ISM
survey have fallen sharply and the orders index
is barely over 50. Computer and electronic
products account for recent losses. We expect
manufacturing employment to stabilize or fall
slightly in coming months.
Arizona’s information industry, led by
telecommunications, continued to shed jobs in
recent months as well. The downward
trajectory now spans seven years. We expect
further losses this year to add to the total.
Overall the Arizona economy should
create 75,000 jobs this year compared
to 142,000 in 2006. Next year, we
expect only 45,000-50,000.

Residential Building Permits
Were Understated
The data we track for residential building permits is
issued by the US Bureau of the Census. The Census C40 data, as they are known, are based on monthly
reports of each building permit-issuing agency in the
U.S. Annual estimates are released three months after
the end of the year, but the previously-issued monthly
estimates are not revised. This year the annual counts
were significantly higher than the sum of the 12
months. The annual estimates show 65,363 total permits statewide issued in 2006, compared to 61,262
shown in the monthly releases. Of the total, 55,633
were for single family units. The additional 4,000-plus
units reflect late reporting on the part of many permitissuing agencies. Some were known to be two to three
months behind in the processing of permits as they were
not adequately staffed to handle the surge in volume.
A much better source for permit data is the Phoenix
Housing Market Letter, published by RL Brown and Greg
Burger (www.rlbrownreports.com), and the Southern
Arizona Housing Market Letter by Bright Future Business
Consultants, John L. Strobeck, President (www.orangereports.com). These sources are much more reliable than
what’s available from any government source.
As best we can determine using the Census data, the
number of residential building permits statewide
declined roughly 30% last year. Since the beginning of
2007, the pace has picked up a bit, suggesting that the
early stages of recovery are at hand. We think not.
Rather, some builders appear to be getting ahead of
themselves given the still-large supply of unsold homes.
We expect permitting to again move lower in coming
months, and the number for all of 2007 to be down
another 20-25% (Exhibit 2).
A recent survey of forecasters who are members of
the National Association for Business Economics found
that nearly half think the bottom in housing will not be
reached until the 4th quarter or later.

EXHIBIT 2
A Premature Bounce?
Building Permits, Arizona
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, 000s

EXHIBIT 3
MLS Price Measures are Moving Up
Median Price of Homes Sold, MLS
Seasonally Adjusted, Smoothed, $000s

Are Housing Prices Declining?
The answer to this question is – it depends. There are
at least three alternative measures, each with
advantages and disadvantages, and they don’t
necessarily agree on the direction, much less the
magnitude of change.

2.

A recent survey of forecasters who are members of the
National Association for Business Economics found that nearly half
think the bottom in housing will not be reached until the 4th quarter or later.

EXHIBIT 4
Consumers Will Remain Cautious
Retail Sales Growth, Arizona
% chg

So are housing prices moving up or down? One
measure shows prices increasing, one shows prices
decreasing, and one shows no change. Weighing all the
evidence from the three measures, the best we can
conclude is that housing prices have reached a plateau.
Although there is some downside risk to prices as
problems in the sub-prime mortgage market are
resolved, we do not expect a catastrophic plunge in
Arizona markets as some analysts are predicting for
other parts of the country.

Consumers Have Reduced Spending

The measure most widely quoted is from Realtor
associations’ multiple listing services (MLS) data.
It shows the median price of homes sold through
that service, which is a small and changing sample
of the housing stock. Prices can move up or down
as the mix of houses-changing-hands varies, and
activity in different segments of the market can
vary widely over the housing cycle. During the
first three quarters of 2006 the median price fell
as purchasers of high-priced homes took their
investment dollars elsewhere. In recent months
this measure of prices moved up as sub-prime
borrowers for less expensive houses were unable
to obtain financing. In the first quarter, this
measure in metro Phoenix increased at nearly a
15% annual rate and was down only 1.6% from
the prior year. The median price of homes sold on
the MLS is now almost back to peak levels of late
2005 in both Tucson and Phoenix metro areas, but
its direction is not a reliable measure of the value
of the existing housing stock (Exhibit 3).
The other two measures mentioned below are
repeat sales indexes, i.e., they measure price
movements of houses that have sold more than
once. This minimizes changes in the mix and qual-

ity of housing that plagues the MLS data.
The second measure comes from the Office of
Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Its
shortcoming is that it reflects only conforming
loans, thereby missing expensive houses
(mortgages greater than $417,000) as well as subprime loans that comprised 30% or more of
mortgage originations during the recent housing
boom. The database therefore covers less than half
of mortgage originations. This index shows prices
did not change in metro Phoenix in the first
quarter although they were 4.5% higher year-onyear. Likewise for metro Tucson, where prices were
unchanged but up 5.3%.
The third measure is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
Price Index, published by Standard and Poor’s.
This index includes sales with all types of financing and is therefore considered the best indicator
of housing prices. Its shortcoming is that it is collected only in 20 metro areas across the country.
Fortunately, Phoenix is one of those cities. This
measure for metro Phoenix declined at a 9.0%
annual rate during the first two months of this
year, and in February prices were 2.1% lower than
one year earlier.

Retail sales statewide are growing once again after a
period of no growth last summer. Over the past five
months, sales have been increasing at a 2.5-3.5%
annual rate. In March, sales were 2.0% higher than a
year earlier. That’s barely fast enough to keep up with
consumer prices, so in real terms spending has not
grown in a year.
Restaurant and bar sales have held up much better
than the broader retail measure, but March was
particularly weak with sales only 1.2% higher than the
prior year.
Slower employment growth, high gasoline prices, and
the housing recession will reduce spending over the
next several months, but improvement should be visible
before year end. We are forecasting 5% gains for retail
sales this year and next (Exhibit 4).

The Outlook
The 2007-08 slowdown is taking shape pretty much
as our recent forecasts have shown. Below-trend
growth but no recession is the best bet. But if fallout
from the sub-prime mortgage market brings a flood of
repossessed homes to the market and precipitates a
free fall in housing prices, or if the hurricane season
damages production and refining capacity thereby
pushing the price of gasoline to over $4.00 per gallon,
or if inflation surprises to the upside and drives interest
rates significantly higher – all bets are off. The odds of
recession are the highest that we’ve seen in a long
time. Nearly two-thirds of the NABE panel of forecasters puts the risk of recession before year end at 25% or
greater. Jim Smith, forecaster extraordinaire, thinks a
recession has already started. Given the lags in reporting
of data and the history of large revisions, he may well be
right! Keep those contingency plans close at hand. ■

The odds of recession are the highest
that we’ve seen in a long time.
3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2006
195,307.4
9.3
41,541
4.4
81,042.4
8.3
6,305.2
4.3
61,262
-28.7
2,650.7
5.7
444.0
8.2
2,206.8
5.2
511.5
4.7
396.8
8.4
266.6
4.8
410.1
1.8

2007
208,740.4
6.9
43,009
3.5
85,295.7
5.2
6,544.3
3.8
45,170
-26.3
2,725.6
2.8
443.0
-0.2
2,282.8
3.4
521.8
2.0
415.8
4.8
274.5
3.0
419.9
2.4

2008
220,386.7
5.6
44,340
3.1
89,377.0
4.8
6,745.5
3.1
49,477
9.5
2,772.3
1.7
432.4
-2.4
2,340.0
2.5
529.7
1.5
423.6
1.9
283.6
3.3
428.1
2.0

2009
235,457.2
6.8
45,967
3.7
94,365.7
5.6
6,953.4
3.1
67,784
37.0
2,843.6
2.6
426.5
-1.4
2,417.3
3.3
546.9
3.2
436.2
3.0
295.8
4.3
437.0
2.1

2010
256,243.6
8.8
47,867
4.1
101,002.5
7.0
7,178.1
3.2
85,356
25.9
2,970.2
4.5
452.2
6.0
2,518.2
4.2
573.3
4.8
458.0
5.0
309.1
4.5
448.6
2.7

2011
279,853.7
9.2
49,931
4.3
108,584.0
7.5
7,433.3
3.6
95,887
12.3
3,114.7
4.9
482.2
6.6
2,632.8
4.5
603.2
5.2
485.9
6.1
322.0
4.2
459.7
2.5

2012
305,070.6
9.0
52,064
4.3
116,288.2
7.1
7,701.4
3.6
101,236
5.6
3,263.5
4.8
511.4
6.1
2,752.2
4.5
631.4
4.7
515.1
6.0
334.3
3.8
472.6
2.8

138,378.0
10.1
47,201
4.0
56,532.5
8.7
4,092.6
5.1
44,280
-29.3
1,895.7
6.0
328.6
8.6
1,567.2
5.5
378.1
4.4
319.2
7.6
182.7
7.2
229.9
1.9

148,791.9
7.5
49,051
3.9
59,470.1
5.2
4,229.8
3.4
33,344
-24.7
1,961.7
3.5
327.6
-0.3
1,634.1
4.3
387.9
2.6
340.1
6.5
188.1
3.0
235.2
2.3

157,676.3
6.0
50,816
3.6
62,575.8
5.2
4,357.4
3.0
38,206
14.6
1,998.2
1.9
316.5
-3.4
1,681.7
2.9
395.7
2.0
352.9
3.8
193.8
3.0
240.0
2.1

168,736.1
7.0
52,905
4.1
66,926.1
7.0
4,491.4
3.1
49,303
29.0
2,048.4
2.5
315.1
-0.5
1,733.4
3.1
410.3
3.7
359.7
1.9
201.8
4.1
245.8
2.4

184,400.8
9.3
55,164
4.3
73,331.6
9.6
4,646.9
3.5
70,175
42.3
2,149.7
4.9
345.5
9.7
1,804.3
4.1
431.8
5.2
372.3
3.5
210.9
4.5
253.1
3.0

200,776.8
8.9
57,432
4.1
78,890.0
7.6
4,807.1
3.4
72,265
3.0
2,253.7
4.8
359.8
4.1
1,893.9
5.0
453.1
4.9
398.3
7.0
219.0
3.8
259.7
2.6

218,572.7
8.9
59,735
4.0
84,793.1
7.5
4,974.5
3.5
75,561
4.6
2,366.9
5.0
391.1
8.7
1,975.8
4.3
470.8
3.9
421.5
5.8
226.5
3.4
266.7
2.7

28,894.9
8.2
39,882
4.7
11,668.3
13.8
981.3
2.5
8,315
-30.2
380.1
3.7
58.2
5.1
321.9
3.4
61.9
3.9
49.3
7.4
40.8
2.6
76.9
-0.2

30,837.5
6.7
41,556
4.2
12,288.8
5.3
1,004.9
2.4
7,293
-12.3
388.6
2.2
57.3
-1.6
331.3
2.9
63.2
2.1
52.0
5.5
41.7
2.1
77.4
0.6

32,602.3
5.7
43,019
3.5
12,850.4
4.6
1,027.0
2.2
7,717
5.8
393.4
1.2
55.7
-2.8
337.7
1.9
64.4
2.0
53.1
2.2
42.7
2.6
77.8
0.6

34,928.8
7.1
44,659
3.8
13,539.2
5.4
1,051.5
2.4
9,688
25.6
403.2
2.5
56.6
1.5
346.7
2.7
66.3
2.9
53.9
1.4
44.5
4.1
79.0
1.6

37,585.2
7.6
46,542
4.2
14,332.7
5.9
1,077.5
2.5
10,260
5.9
416.1
3.2
58.5
3.4
357.6
3.1
68.5
3.2
55.7
3.4
46.3
4.2
80.5
1.8

40,204.3
7.0
48,574
4.4
15,087.9
5.3
1,102.9
2.4
10,020
-2.3
427.3
2.7
59.9
2.4
367.4
2.7
70.3
2.7
58.0
4.0
47.9
3.3
81.2
0.9

42,706.1
6.2
50,628
4.2
15,781.0
4.6
1,127.3
2.2
9,624
-4.0
436.0
2.0
60.0
0.3
376.0
2.3
71.8
2.1
59.8
3.2
49.2
2.8
81.8
0.8

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

19,650
17,675
1,975
10.1

19,750
17,600
2,150
10.9

19,750
17,750
2,000
10.1

19,725
17,750
1,975
10.0

19,600
17,875
1,725
8.8

-1.1
-1.4
1.5
2.6

0.7
0.6
1.7
1.0

19,650
7,050
800
18,850
1,900
4,350
12,600
3,225
9,375

19,800
7,025
800
19,000
1,850
4,375
12,775
3,150
9,625

19,750
7,025
775
18,975
1,850
4,400
12,725
3,125
9,600

19,950
7,125
800
19,150
1,825
4,500
12,825
3,175
9,650

20,175
7,300
850
19,325
1,800
4,650
12,875
3,200
9,675

0.4
4.7
21.4
-0.4
0.0
3.9
-1.9
0.0
-2.5

1.1
2.3
-1.3
1.2
1.7
3.3
0.4
2.0
-0.1

12,108
7,174
639
4,295
1,850
4,320
727

12,096
6,237
531
5,328
2,329
2,910
539

11,033
5,671
633
4,729
2,077
3,029
681

13,255
5,675
883
6,697
2,456
6,252
961

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.8
-5.3
23.9
12.7
-0.9
2.5
48.8

-2.9
-2.0
-4.4
-3.7
-10.0
-17.8
8.4

37,325
34,625
2,700
7.2

36,875
33,900
2,975
8.1

36,625
33,975
2,650
7.2

36,550
33,875
2,675
7.3

36,050
33,625
2,425
6.7

-3.9
-4.0
-3.0
1.0

-0.0
0.4
-4.7
-4.7

29,825
19,650
4,075
3,200
875
25,750
6,250
825
675
1,025
3,425
2,625
750
10,175
1,600
8,575

29,125
19,250
4,000
3,125
875
25,125
6,100
850
650
1,050
3,375
2,500
725
9,875
1,525
8,350

29,075
18,975
3,825
2,975
850
25,250
6,000
825
650
1,050
3,400
2,500
725
10,100
1,525
8,575

29,425
19,150
3,875
3,025
850
25,550
6,100
825
625
1,050
3,425
2,525
725
10,275
1,550
8,725

29,125
19,275
3,975
3,125
850
25,150
5,950
800
625
1,100
3,450
2,600
775
9,850
1,550
8,300

-2.6
-0.1
3.2
7.8
-10.5
-3.5
1.3
3.2
-7.4
-10.2
5.3
-8.0
-3.1
-7.1
-7.5
-7.0

0.7
3.5
7.5
10.7
-2.2
-0.3
7.4
6.8
3.7
-3.4
3.3
-4.3
-6.0
-4.3
-2.2
-4.7

89,552
71,645
7,145
10,761
4,635
21,679
2,357

74,623
57,716
6,406
10,501
4,590
18,058
1,771

71,662
55,243
6,914
9,505
4,175
17,869
2,118

86,479
66,237
7,120
13,122
4,813
19,780
2,260

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.0
5.4
5.3
17.1
3.0
28.9
26.8

7.1
8.7
8.8
-1.4
-7.0
11.8
11.7

30
30

28
26

24
24

52
52

41
41

17.1
17.1

-25.0
-24.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

14,050
13,425
625
4.4

13,975
13,275
700
5.0

14,175
13,550
625
4.4

14,225
13,625
600
4.2

14,250
13,675
575
4.0

9.6
10.5
-8.0
-16.1

11.2
12.4
-8.6
-17.8

8,700
5,775
1,150
7,550
1,700
2,925
2,925
400
2,525

8,525
5,800
1,175
7,350
1,675
2,950
2,725
400
2,325

8,700
5,875
1,200
7,500
1,675
3,000
2,825
400
2,425

8,800
5,950
1,300
7,500
1,750
2,900
2,850
450
2,400

8,950
6,100
1,350
7,600
1,775
2,975
2,850
425
2,425

12.2
16.7
86.2
4.8
4.4
6.3
3.6
0.0
4.3

11.6
14.4
63.4
6.9
9.8
5.6
6.5
18.7
4.5

28,207
23,454
2,275
2,478
1,067
6,160

23,219
18,800
2,016
2,402
1,050
4,430

23,149
18,693
2,186
2,270
997
4,869

25,344
20,198
2,186
2,960
1,086
4,134

...
...
...
...
...
...

13.7
10.1
15.8
43.5
26.2
10.5

23.4
25.6
13.7
15.6
9.6
33.1

67,800
64,800
3,000
4.4

66,700
63,300
3,400
5.1

67,100
64,100
3,000
4.5

67,200
64,300
2,900
4.3

67,600
65,100
2,500
3.7

-1.2
-0.9
-7.4
-6.3

1.7
2.0
-5.8
-7.4

63,400
44,300
7,200
3,500
3,700
56,200
10,000
500
1,800
3,300
7,200
12,400
1,900
19,100
2,700
16,400

62,000
43,000
7,200
3,400
3,800
54,800
9,600
500
1,700
3,200
7,100
11,800
1,900
19,000
2,600
16,400

62,400
43,000
7,200
3,400
3,800
55,200
9,600
400
1,700
3,200
7,100
11,900
1,900
19,400
2,600
16,800

63,300
43,800
7,100
3,300
3,800
56,200
9,800
400
1,700
3,400
7,100
12,400
1,900
19,500
2,600
16,900

64,300
44,700
7,100
3,300
3,800
57,200
9,900
400
1,800
3,400
7,100
13,000
2,000
19,600
2,700
16,900

0.8
1.4
1.4
-5.7
8.6
0.7
2.1
-20.0
5.9
0.0
0.0
1.6
5.3
-0.5
-6.9
0.6

2.6
3.0
7.1
3.9
10.4
2.1
2.3
-1.7
2.4
0.2
0.2
4.1
1.3
1.7
-5.8
3.1

143,409
100,650
24,531
18,227
7,851
34,353
11,709

100,894
63,029
21,872
15,993
6,991
26,116
7,696

110,453
74,592
21,967
13,893
6,103
27,777
9,297

140,907
86,408
31,554
22,946
8,416
33,586
15,732

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

12.1
8.2
16.2
23.0
8.2
29.9
8.7

6.9
6.0
9.2
7.6
0.5
14.2
5.8

39
39

35
33

28
28

34
34

41
41

-68.2
-36.9

-55.7
-33.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

4,000
3,875
125
3.1

4,000
3,825
175
4.4

4,050
3,900
150
3.7

4,075
3,925
150
3.7

4,075
3,950
125
3.1

10.1
10.5
0.0
-9.2

11.8
12.5
-4.1
-14.4

4,600
4,100
3,350
1,250
325
425
500
25
475

4,600
4,100
3,375
1,225
325
400
500
25
475

4,725
4,225
3,475
1,250
325
425
500
25
475

4,725
4,200
3,475
1,250
325
400
525
25
500

4,775
4,275
3,500
1,275
325
450
500
25
475

16.5
18.8
20.7
6.3
18.2
5.9
0.0
0.0
0.0

18.4
21.4
22.6
8.8
11.1
20.1
-0.8
5.6
-1.3

9,611
8,747
239
625
269
9,425
407

9,983
9,015
325
642
281
6,037
962

9,269
8,404
285
581
255
7,460
745

11,281
9,960
526
795
292
7,883
659

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

3.9
0.5
102.5
15.7
1.8
66.1
28.0

-37.5
-43.1
18.1
9.6
2.7
172.6
23.8

96,700
93,100
3,600
3.7

95,400
91,000
4,400
4.6

96,100
92,400
3,700
3.9

96,100
92,400
3,700
3.9

96,900
93,300
3,600
3.7

0.8
1.0
-2.7
-3.5

4.3
4.6
-3.2
-7.2

65,300
53,800
13,100
9,200
3,900
52,200
12,600
600
2,500
5,100
9,600
8,200
2,100
11,500
1,200
10,300

63,500
52,300
12,700
8,900
3,800
50,800
12,400
600
2,400
5,000
9,200
8,000
2,000
11,200
1,200
10,000

64,700
53,000
12,900
9,100
3,800
51,800
12,300
600
2,400
5,200
9,400
8,100
2,100
11,700
1,200
10,500

65,100
53,300
12,900
9,100
3,800
52,200
12,400
600
2,500
5,200
9,400
8,200
2,100
11,800
1,200
10,600

66,000
54,200
13,000
9,100
3,900
53,000
12,400
600
2,500
5,400
9,700
8,500
2,100
11,800
1,200
10,600

3.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
1.6
0.0
4.2
5.9
6.6
4.9
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.9

5.5
5.6
5.5
6.8
2.4
5.5
5.0
0.0
5.4
6.7
7.0
5.7
1.6
5.4
4.2
5.5

198,314
156,196
23,976
18,142
7,814
73,048
6,657

169,423
126,579
25,819
17,025
7,442
53,804
5,619

154,828
123,917
15,107
15,803
6,942
56,431
7,204

185,566
138,733
24,640
22,192
8,139
61,254
10,565

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.6
1.6
8.5
33.9
17.7
-19.8
11.8

4.7
3.6
5.3
11.5
4.8
3.2
10.2

131
127

121
121

126
118

120
118

130
127

-52.6
-52.6

-46.3
-48.1

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

20,750
19,775
975
4.7

20,500
19,350
1,150
5.6

20,500
19,500
1,000
4.9

20,225
19,225
1,000
4.9

20,650
19,725
925
4.5

-0.5
0.1
-11.9
-11.5

1.0
1.6
-10.3
-11.2

14,575
9,750
2,675
11,900
2,325
4,750
4,825
475
4,350

14,225
9,475
2,625
11,600
2,275
4,575
4,750
450
4,300

14,325
9,550
2,650
11,675
2,275
4,625
4,775
450
4,325

14,375
9,725
2,675
11,700
2,325
4,725
4,650
450
4,200

14,700
9,875
2,725
11,975
2,325
4,825
4,825
450
4,375

1.7
3.1
9.0
0.2
1.1
1.0
-1.0
-14.3
0.6

2.7
4.7
18.4
-0.3
2.3
-0.5
-1.3
-2.4
-1.2

40,692
29,822
4,676
6,194
2,668
13,363
876

31,946
21,591
4,241
6,114
2,673
8,231
929

31,649
21,469
4,520
5,660
2,486
5,843
888

38,639
25,904
4,670
8,065
2,958
9,989
1,140

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.7
3.1
-1.4
34.3
18.0
21.3
4.7

6.1
6.2
7.0
5.4
-1.9
24.9
5.0

92,100
88,000
4,100
4.5

93,150
88,225
4,925
5.3

92,725
88,450
4,275
4.6

92,500
88,100
4,400
4.8

92,100
88,000
4,100
4.5

-0.7
-1.3
15.5
16.3

2.8
2.5
9.0
6.1

55,575
47,050
11,200
7,350
3,850
44,375
11,725
1,025
2,675
3,875
7,300
6,650
2,600
8,525
500
8,025

55,375
46,800
11,150
7,250
3,900
44,225
11,525
1,025
2,650
3,775
7,250
6,775
2,650
8,575
500
8,075

55,475
46,825
11,025
7,150
3,875
44,450
11,450
1,000
2,700
3,650
7,325
6,950
2,725
8,650
475
8,175

56,000
47,400
10,875
7,050
3,825
45,125
11,675
1,000
2,725
3,800
7,400
7,175
2,750
8,600
475
8,125

55,850
47,175
10,725
6,975
3,750
45,125
11,550
1,000
2,800
3,825
7,450
7,050
2,775
8,675
475
8,200

-0.5
-2.1
-8.9
-9.7
-7.4
1.7
-2.3
0.0
8.7
-9.5
5.7
-1.4
6.7
9.5
-5.0
10.4

2.7
2.3
-1.3
-0.9
-2.2
3.8
0.2
7.6
13.2
-1.3
7.3
2.8
6.7
5.2
-4.3
5.9

186,419
145,502
18,689
22,229
9,575
53,184
2,681

154,682
116,830
16,317
21,535
9,414
37,888
2,783

155,459
120,130
17,038
18,292
8,035
43,282
4,393

182,011
134,685
19,544
27,782
10,190
53,162
2,896

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.3
-2.7
6.5
7.7
-5.3
-15.8
-32.8

0.6
0.2
8.7
-2.5
-9.0
-1.3
2.4

140
130

128
118

120
118

167
165

99
93

-70.4
-70.4

-44.7
-52.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

7,850
7,425
425
5.4

7,925
7,425
500
6.3

7,800
7,350
450
5.8

7,650
7,225
425
5.6

7,450
7,050
400
5.4

-3.9
-3.8
-5.9
-2.1

0.6
1.4
-11.7
-12.2

5,700
2,925
475
5,225
1,375
1,075
2,775
325
2,450

5,675
2,900
500
5,175
1,325
1,075
2,775
325
2,450

5,725
2,925
500
5,225
1,375
1,050
2,800
325
2,475

5,600
2,900
500
5,100
1,350
1,050
2,700
300
2,400

5,525
2,800
475
5,050
1,325
1,000
2,725
300
2,425

-0.5
-8.2
-17.4
1.5
0.0
-13.0
9.0
-7.7
11.5

1.8
-3.4
6.3
1.3
1.7
-12.5
8.2
25.2
6.1

20,933
10,906
2,520
7,507
3,234
2,544
461

28,422
17,542
3,026
7,854
3,433
1,964
698

24,546
15,754
2,621
6,171
2,711
3,236
512

22,801
12,420
2,410
7,970
2,923
2,221
713

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

11.8
5.4
21.7
20.3
5.7
-31.0
-9.1

3.3
0.2
3.1
8.5
2.2
4.8
-1.0

76,700
68,000
8,700
11.3

74,900
66,600
8,300
11.1

74,500
67,500
7,000
9.4

74,600
67,100
7,500
10.1

74,000
64,400
9,600
13.0

-1.9
-1.8
-2.0
-0.2

0.7
1.5
-3.7
-4.5

55,100
40,300
8,300
5,200
3,100
46,800
11,700
1,300
1,600
3,600
6,300
5,900
1,600
14,800
3,300
11,500

54,100
39,800
8,200
5,100
3,100
45,900
11,400
1,300
1,600
3,500
6,400
5,800
1,600
14,300
3,400
10,900

55,200
40,200
8,300
5,000
3,300
46,900
11,500
1,300
1,500
3,500
6,400
6,000
1,700
15,000
3,400
11,600

55,200
40,300
8,200
4,900
3,300
47,000
11,700
1,300
1,500
3,500
6,400
6,000
1,700
14,900
3,300
11,600

53,200
38,500
7,800
4,800
3,000
45,400
10,500
1,300
1,500
3,500
6,200
6,100
1,600
14,700
3,400
11,300

0.9
0.3
-6.0
-9.4
0.0
2.3
1.0
18.2
-6.3
-5.4
1.6
8.9
0.0
2.8
6.3
1.8

1.7
0.4
-2.3
-3.3
-0.3
2.4
0.7
12.9
-3.2
1.2
1.5
1.1
-0.5
5.2
5.9
5.0

191,987
153,165
18,225
20,596
8,872
31,983
3,870

151,716
117,752
18,287
15,677
6,853
37,791
5,213

166,066
126,777
19,576
19,712
8,659
39,306
6,134

180,898
134,255
20,601
26,041
9,551
43,686
5,156

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

8.6
7.3
7.8
16.7
2.6
11.7
-0.9

5.3
6.1
6.4
0.6
-6.0
5.9
11.9

86
81

62
60

71
71

70
70

51
51

-56.4
-54.5

-42.3
-42.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

16,475
15,250
1,225
7.4

16,475
15,225
1,250
7.6

16,525
15,425
1,100
6.7

16,300
15,225
1,075
6.6

16,150
15,200
950
5.9

-0.9
-1.3
5.6
6.5

1.6
2.0
-2.2
-4.0

13,900
10,425
1,125
12,775
5,425
3,875
3,475
1,400
2,075

13,825
10,350
1,100
12,725
5,375
3,875
3,475
1,375
2,100

13,900
10,450
1,150
12,750
5,325
3,975
3,450
1,375
2,075

13,975
10,500
1,150
12,825
5,350
4,000
3,475
1,375
2,100

13,950
10,475
1,175
12,775
5,200
4,100
3,475
1,375
2,100

0.4
0.7
2.2
0.2
-3.7
6.5
-0.7
10.0
-6.7

2.5
3.8
6.6
2.1
0.0
8.2
-1.0
10.2
-7.2

66,023
54,876
4,519
6,628
2,855
12,444
934

38,441
28,835
4,183
5,423
2,371
9,636
1,231

39,153
29,874
4,480
4,799
2,108
9,358
1,300

47,338
35,976
4,774
6,588
2,416
8,720
1,371

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.8
8.2
14.7
15.7
1.7
-21.7
-19.9

9.6
11.1
13.5
-1.3
-7.3
29.3
-2.6

28
28

45
45

34
34

26
26

40
37

-24.5
-27.5

-20.3
-21.2

56,350
53,900
2,450
4.3

56,250
53,350
2,900
5.2

56,775
54,225
2,550
4.5

55,875
53,375
2,500
4.5

55,975
53,625
2,350
4.2

-1.1
-0.8
-6.0
-5.0

1.4
1.6
-3.1
-4.5

37,975
25,725
3,700
2,800
900
34,275
6,875
425
1,000
4,800
4,100
3,850
975
12,250
4,750
7,500

37,575
25,450
3,650
2,750
900
33,925
6,675
425
950
4,825
4,075
3,875
975
12,125
4,700
7,425

37,950
25,725
3,675
2,750
925
34,275
6,700
425
975
4,950
4,100
3,925
975
12,225
4,675
7,550

37,900
25,775
3,675
2,750
925
34,225
6,725
425
950
4,900
4,050
4,075
975
12,125
4,650
7,475

38,125
26,000
3,700
2,775
925
34,425
6,750
425
950
4,950
4,100
4,150
975
12,125
4,675
7,450

0.9
2.2
1.4
-1.8
12.1
0.9
3.1
-5.6
-7.3
4.8
3.8
1.8
-4.9
-1.6
-6.0
1.4

2.1
2.9
3.9
4.0
3.6
1.9
2.7
-4.1
-2.2
7.7
0.9
2.1
-2.0
0.5
-3.1
3.0

112,832
85,686
14,159
12,988
5,594
27,621
2,827

80,915
59,167
9,825
11,922
5,212
28,116
3,231

83,437
62,047
10,355
11,035
4,847
22,071
3,986

96,326
69,778
11,787
14,761
5,414
27,311
4,359

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.7
9.1
10.6
11.7
-1.8
15.9
13.0

6.2
6.5
11.0
0.8
-5.3
22.3
10.1

38
38

28
28

51
51

49
49

49
49

-22.2
-22.2

-28.7
-27.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

458.1
440.9
17.2
4.0

453.8
433.7
20.1
4.2

459.2
441.9
17.3
3.8

455.7
438.4
17.3
3.8

456.5
439.9
16.6
3.8

1.8
2.1
-4.0
-7.3

2.4
2.8
-6.4
-8.8

391.0
1.7
28.7
27.9
4.2
10.6
9.6
45.9
9.3
6.6
17.8
50.8
54.3
5.8
7.8
28.4
16.2
10.4
69.8
43.8

383.4
1.7
28.1
27.8
4.1
10.6
9.5
43.7
9.3
6.5
17.4
50.5
53.9
5.9
7.9
28.4
16.3
10.5
66.0
39.9

391.1
1.7
28.2
29.4
4.1
12.2
9.5
43.5
9.2
6.3
17.6
51.0
54.5
6.1
8.1
29.2
16.6
10.5
69.7
43.4

392.0
1.7
28.0
28.8
4.0
11.7
9.7
43.9
9.3
6.1
17.7
51.1
54.7
6.1
8.2
29.6
16.9
10.6
69.6
43.1

393.5
1.8
28.1
28.8
4.0
11.8
9.7
43.8
9.3
6.1
17.8
51.6
55.1
6.6
8.2
29.8
16.9
10.6
69.3
43.4

3.7
20.0
2.6
0.7
-11.1
3.5
5.4
2.1
2.2
-11.6
3.5
6.6
6.2
15.8
7.9
4.2
7.6
6.0
1.0
0.2

3.4
19.3
7.5
0.8
-8.3
1.0
6.5
2.2
2.6
-8.6
3.4
6.3
4.6
9.3
1.5
3.2
7.5
2.7
0.4
-2.4

1,196,523
856,342
140,512
126,624
73,045
227,551
27,736

954,206
618,906
142,092
122,782
70,426
173,183
38,003

945,975
607,077
142,796
128,204
67,899
181,002
44,558

1,081,428
707,784
143,167
140,587
89,890
228,017
46,448

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.5
4.1
6.7
9.7
22.4
4.4
-0.6

10.8
5.5
66.9
8.0
-1.1
9.1
2.8

404
369
36

348
300
47

527
463
65

535
468
67

572
517
56

-26.2
-29.9
46.3

-39.8
-37.9
-54.8

256,382
981
261,348

263,542
974
270,577

264,405
1,026
257,704

370,122
1,353
273,556

353,825
1,280
276,426

-12.9
-12.7
-0.2

-15.2
-15.7
0.2

355,122
21,561

351,381
22,818

350,265
23,984

422,493
23,455

393,426
20,329

3.5
-16.0

1.1
-8.8

I
2006

II
2006

III
2006

IV
2006

I
2007

972.5
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.5

978.3
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.5

984.2
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.6

990.1
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.6

996.0
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.6

2.4
-1.2
0.9
2.4
1.3

2.5
-0.3
2.1
3.7
-2.9

28,102
19,502
2,238
145
5,499
5,194
28,898

28,656
19,845
2,283
147
5,669
5,278
29,292

29,176
20,166
2,324
148
5,810
5,375
29,646

29,645
20,459
2,359
150
5,903
5,491
29,942

30,109
20,753
2,394
152
5,990
5,608
30,230

7.1
6.4
7.0
5.0
8.9
8.0
4.6

7.9
7.4
8.5
5.6
10.9
6.9
5.3

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

DEC
2006

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

2,059.8
1,991.4
68.4
3.5

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

APR
2007

2,055.0
1,973.9
81.1
3.7

2,056.5
1,987.3
69.2
3.4

2,049.2
1,980.0
69.2
3.4

2,050.1
1,984.1
66.0
3.3

2.3
2.5
-4.9
-8.3

4.2
4.7
-7.4
-11.7

1,959.1
2.8
190.8
112.6
40.6
14.7
27.2
89.2
242.9
8.8
56.4
31.9
117.0
41.4
335.4
33.6
165.8
25.6
29.0
131.8
74.8
22.3
219.8
118.2

1,926.1
2.9
187.4
112.5
40.4
14.7
26.6
88.7
235.7
8.6
55.5
31.3
116.4
41.0
327.3
33.5
164.7
25.0
28.7
131.1
75.5
21.9
211.8
109.6

1,948.5
3.0
188.2
112.0
40.3
14.8
26.7
89.5
234.4
8.7
55.4
31.7
117.3
41.2
332.5
34.6
165.5
26.0
29.1
134.0
76.8
21.8
220.1
117.2

1,959.2
3.0
187.2
112.1
40.4
14.8
26.9
89.8
235.7
8.7
55.4
31.3
116.9
41.5
335.8
34.9
166.5
26.7
29.5
136.6
77.9
21.7
221.1
117.6

1,961.8
3.0
186.6
112.2
40.4
14.8
27.1
90.4
235.1
8.7
55.2
31.2
116.4
41.7
337.9
35.0
167.3
27.2
29.7
137.2
77.0
21.7
221.2
117.3

4.2
15.4
3.4
-0.9
-2.4
0.7
-0.7
4.8
4.6
3.6
-1.3
-5.2
2.8
5.8
7.2
7.0
3.3
10.6
2.1
5.5
8.3
0.5
4.1
4.3

5.3
25.2
9.7
1.7
1.4
-0.4
-0.7
5.0
5.1
5.5
1.1
-3.0
3.9
5.7
7.8
7.0
4.8
8.9
3.0
5.6
9.2
0.4
3.4
4.5

5,720,911
4,130,774
634,546
591,120
364,471
1,688,962
104,817

4,609,771
3,014,335
645,670
595,408
354,359
1,288,439
168,168

4,586,696
3,038,517
648,870
571,399
327,911
1,207,796
172,888

5,229,129
3,476,381
650,555
661,488
440,705
1,391,057
213,149

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.4
3.4
7.4
8.9
30.4
-1.9
10.4

6.9
5.5
8.7
8.8
13.5
15.8
10.7

2,395
2,148
124
123

2,709
2,564
33
112

4,918
2,736
227
1,955

4,942
3,410
68
1,464

3,059
2,632
65
362

-30.0
-22.0
-48.4
-58.5

-30.2
-33.2
-41.9
-9.8

1,653,122
4,816
343,256

1,381,429
3,909
353,397

1,500,234
4,365
343,696

1,879,980
5,261
357,343

1,669,300
4,850
344,186

-22.8
-25.3
3.3

-25.7
-30.0
5.6

3,407,513
45,899

3,375,510
46,081

3,276,621
42,688

3,894,704
47,959

...
...

2.2
0.1

0.6
-2.0

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
I
2006

II
2006

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
4,026.3
4,071.5
Natural Increase
10.0
10.1
Births
16.7
16.9
Deaths
6.7
6.8
Net Migration
40.0
35.0
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
134,071
137,111
Earnings by Place of Work
108,938
111,335
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
12,117
12,370
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-138
-139
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
20,373
20,882
Plus: Transfer Payments
17,015
17,404
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
33,299
33,676
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2006

IV
2006

I
2007

4,109.6
10.2
17.1
6.9
27.9

4,143.9
10.3
17.2
7.0
24.1

4,178.3
10.3
17.4
7.0
24.0

3.8
3.0
3.9
5.2
-40.0

4.4
3.4
4.5
6.2
-27.8

139,921
113,563
12,605
-141
21,296
17,808
34,048

142,409
115,576
12,820
-142
21,564
18,231
34,366

144,887
117,598
13,038
-145
21,820
18,652
34,676

8.1
7.9
7.6
-4.9
7.1
9.6
4.1

9.4
9.4
9.2
-11.6
9.5
9.3
4.7

6,207.6
13.1
24.9
11.9
52.0

6,272.7
13.7
25.4
11.7
50.7

6,336.5
13.9
25.6
11.7
48.6

6,398.6
14.2
25.9
11.7
47.6

6,459.3
13.8
25.6
11.8
45.7

4.1
5.4
2.7
-0.3
-12.1

4.2
9.3
5.5
1.4
-0.9

191,022
147,923
16,649
685
30,166
28,898

193,105
148,842
16,756
689
30,830
29,503

196,590
150,920
16,965
699
31,650
30,291

200,513
154,313
17,308
716
32,054
30,741

205,290
157,796
17,805
732
32,654
31,915

7.5
6.7
6.9
6.9
8.2
10.4

8.6
8.4
9.0
6.8
9.2
8.8

108,300
23,482
16,043
244
15,799
30,772
40,926

108,851
23,752
16,015
208
15,807
30,785
40,576

110,382
24,163
15,898
237
15,661
31,025
40,752

112,957
24,693
16,018
322
15,697
31,337
41,151

115,789
25,149
...
...
...
31,782
...

6.9
7.1
2.1
27.8
1.7
3.3
4.1

8.9
8.5
4.1
-20.1
4.6
4.2
4.6

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

FEB
2007

MAR
2007

629,115
58,783
268,031
302,301
209,825
36,672
159,767
13,386

769,073
59,795
234,155
475,123
271,540
42,790
206,127
22,623

845,445
77,535
248,049
519,861
326,074
55,691
235,316
35,067

1,287,293
139,436
475,125
672,732
434,677
58,548
316,034
60,095

1,646,688
162,643
609,254
874,791
326,049
41,418
234,662
49,969

1.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
2.6
-6.4
6.9
-7.6

-2.1
-3.6
-2.6
-1.5
4.4
-6.3
7.6
1.2

729,319
2,239,147
760,662

643,143
1,927,787
730,888

617,521
1,922,522
665,862

704,184
2,095,682
760,713

...
...
729,451

9.4
27.9
-9.1

-1.2
5.9
-10.0

201.8
197.2

202.4
197.6

203.5
198.5

205.4
200.6

206.7
202.1

2.6
2.5

2.9
2.8

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

APR
2007

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

DEC
2006

JAN
2007

3,028.0
2,912.3
115.7
4.1

MAR
2007

APR
2007

3,014.6
2,880.6
134.0
4.2

3,022.4
2,907.3
115.1
3.9

3,009.8
2,894.4
115.4
3.9

3,011.4
2,899.5
111.9
4.0

1.7
1.9
-3.7
-3.9

3.6
4.1
-6.0
-10.2

2,725.2
10.5
252.1
150.5
19.6
45.3
25.9
36.1
109.2
341.1
12.5
71.8
43.4
134.1
54.0
412.1
44.7
252.4
34.7
47.9
189.8
102.7
52.4
373.2
201.1
41.1

2,679.5
10.7
247.6
150.2
19.5
45.2
25.9
35.6
108.5
330.1
12.3
70.8
42.8
133.4
53.4
403.5
44.6
251.0
34.1
47.3
189.1
103.3
51.7
359.5
186.5
41.1

2,713.3
10.7
248.5
151.3
19.5
45.0
27.7
35.8
109.5
328.5
12.3
70.7
43.0
134.3
53.6
409.9
45.7
252.2
35.2
48.1
193.0
105.0
51.5
374.5
200.6
41.1

2,727.6
10.8
247.4
150.9
19.5
45.0
27.2
36.1
110.0
331.1
12.3
70.8
42.4
133.8
54.1
413.4
45.9
253.6
36.5
48.7
196.2
106.6
51.4
375.6
200.7
41.3

2,731.4
11.0
246.8
150.8
19.5
45.0
27.2
36.0
109.7
330.6
12.4
70.5
42.3
133.4
54.3
416.0
46.2
254.4
37.6
49.0
197.2
105.7
51.8
375.7
201.1
41.0

3.7
15.8
2.7
-0.6
2.6
-2.8
2.6
0.6
5.0
4.0
1.6
-0.7
-5.4
2.7
5.4
6.9
5.5
3.7
9.0
2.5
4.3
7.7
0.2
3.1
2.3
1.5

4.7
19.2
8.8
1.7
3.5
0.6
0.8
0.6
5.2
4.3
3.3
1.3
-3.3
3.8
5.5
7.5
5.4
4.6
7.5
2.4
4.5
8.5
0.3
2.6
2.1
1.0

16.98
14.63
15.32
11.70
19.47

16.90
14.95
15.62
12.00
19.19

17.24
15.25
15.59
12.12
18.77

17.27
15.15
15.77
12.28
19.20

17.36
15.19
15.99
12.47
19.23

6.0
3.3
5.4
0.8
7.6

5.3
3.5
3.5
-1.0
2.1

8,182,655
5,834,937
940,194
839,336
568,187
244,739
633,999
295,029
77,484
335,239
2,206,635
153,621
166,058

6,606,255
4,276,335
953,678
831,040
545,202
238,329
749,169
295,823
79,116
341,333
1,696,602
115,926
236,843

6,580,114
4,308,165
958,405
805,284
508,260
223,254
678,958
291,008
117,548
315,542
1,629,329
104,595
254,705

7,508,575
4,924,395
960,894
932,771
690,515
253,261
584,815
301,556
131,999
357,505
1,897,053
138,580
305,409

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.5
3.6
7.0
9.2
26.4
11.1
7.6
7.9
13.6
0.2
-1.0
21.0
7.7

6.5
5.3
9.2
8.6
8.8
2.5
13.5
10.9
13.6
9.7
13.9
49.2
8.7

3,339
3,002
160
177

3,520
3,332
69
119

5,933
3,702
260
1,971

6,019
4,448
98
1,473

4,107
3,644
93
370

-33.4
-27.7
-43.3
-61.5

-33.5
-35.7
-26.3
-18.7

539
367
12
160

592
410
14
168

660
479
29
152

837
655
20
162

781
598
14
169

39.5
34.7
-12.5
69.0

-75.1
-78.9
2.5
-42.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

FEB
2007

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2006

II
2006

III
2006

IV
2006

I
2007

202.7
198.9
194.5

206.2
202.3
198.0

207.3
203.4
199.1

206.5
201.7
197.0

209.2
203.8
198.9

3.2
2.4
2.3

3.3
3.0
2.9

115.0
113.4

115.9
114.6

116.4
115.2

116.9
115.0

118.1
115.9

2.7
2.2

2.9
2.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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15.

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