J A N U A R Y

Economic Outlook
for 2007-2008
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
December 1, 2006

As 2006 comes to a close, indicators
related to the economy’s performance are
mixed, and forecasts vary widely about
what lies ahead. Arizona’s economy is
showing remarkable resilience even as the
anticipated correction in housing
advances. Labor markets, wages and
incomes, and population growth still look
solid. Worrisome, however, is the fact that
housing is now retreating from lofty levels,
and consumer spending is no longer
growing as the stimulus from housing
rapidly evaporates. History is likely to
repeat and housing will lead the rest of the
economy to lower ground in coming
months. We continue to forecast
significantly slower growth in 2007 as
construction becomes a major drag. Keys
to whether the slowdown turns into a
recession are how long it takes for housing
to return to “normal” and whether
consumers will be able to continue
spending as incomes weaken and the
value of their homes stops increasing.

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

Our forecast from one year ago called for a
significant slowdown in growth during the second
half of 2006 as consumers pulled back and housing
markets retreated. The nation’s economy has
followed this script rather closely. After growing
at a 3.2% annual rate in 2005, the nation’s output
rose by only 1.6% in the third quarter and likely
will turn in a sub-2% showing in the final quarter.
The drag from the housing downturn is subtracting
an estimated 1.2% percentage points from GDP
growth. For all of 2007, growth is likely to remain
in the 2-2.5% range and well below potential.
In Arizona, housing markets are rapidly losing
ground as they return to “normal”. The fall in
building activity and sales is beginning to spill
over into other sectors but so far damage has
been limited.
The most visible signs of slowing can be seen in
retail sales totals, which ceased growing last spring
and are now declining slightly (Exhibit 1). The last
time sales declined was during the 2001 recession.
The state no longer tabulates sales by category,
but the retrenchment is most likely explained by
weakening sales at hardware stores, home
improvement centers, furniture stores, and new car
dealers. Now that the consumer’s largest asset,
their home, is no longer increasing in value, they
may be less willing (or able) to spend as freely. On
a positive note, the recent decline in gasoline
prices will help support spending through the holidays. We expect retail sales to grow by 4.5-5.0%
in 2007 following gains of 8.5% and 13.4% in the
prior two years.
A slowdown in restaurant and bar sales also is
evident. Spending slowed during the summer
months, suggesting that either we’re not eating
out as often or tourism is tapering off. Support for
the latter is seen in airline passenger traffic.
Neither Tucson International nor Sky Harbor airport has experienced growth in 2006.

Plenty of Momentum Remains
Effects of the slowdown have yet to appear in
recent data on population flows, incomes, wages
and jobs, which remain remarkably strong.
Unfortunately, lags in data reporting, measurement
issues, and how analysts look at recent changes cloud
interpretation of these measures.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

2 0 0 7

•

W I N T E R

I S S U E

The latter is particularly important. Regional
analysts typically compare current data to a year
ago. The advantage is that this measure
automatically adjusts for seasonality (unlike
national data, most state level data is not
seasonally adjusted). The disadvantage is that
a calculation over a 12-month span is not very
current. (It won’t reveal a turning point until
six months after the turn!) The solution is to
seasonally adjust the data and compare to the
prior period (and deal with any additional noise
using short moving averages).
As best anyone can measure, population
statewide continues to grow by 200,000-plus
each year (an increase of 3.4%). Metro Tucson
reached a milestone in late 2006 as population
surpassed the magic one million mark. Some
slowing in recent months is evident in the number of new electric utility customers (our best
real-time indicator of household formation), but
the numbers remain at a high level. Population
growth is key to our forecast and to the length
of time needed for housing markets to correct.
We expect population growth to remain at high
levels, similar to the experience of 2001.
Arizona personal income grew at an 8.2%
seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second
quarter. That follows a surge of 15% in the
first quarter, which was boosted by large
year-end-2005 bonuses. Compared to one
year earlier, second quarter personal income
was up nearly 10% (the biggest gain in six
years). Wage and salary disbursements, which
account for two-thirds of the total, grew at a
9.3% annual rate, while proprietors income
increased by a meager 2.7%. Because of the
volatility in recent reporting periods and the
preliminary nature of these estimates, it’s
impossible to judge the strength of income
growth. We expect that as commission
incomes fall in real estate-related jobs and as
jobs are cut in construction and real estaterelated sectors, personal income will slow
significantly. From a very strong advance
of 9.8% in 2006, look for gains in the
neighborhood of 6.5% in 2007 and
the following year. With
population growth of 3.3%

EXHIBIT 1
Consumer Spending is Slowing
Retail Sales, AZ

and consumer prices increases at 2.4%, that still leaves
positive per capita real personal income growth.
Average wages accelerated during the past two years,
and with data through the 1Q2006, wages statewide
increased by 6.1% during the past year to $39,800. The
data is from the QCEW that is based on unemployment
insurance reports filed by employers. The strong
increase helps explain why consumer confidence
remains high. We expect wage increases to moderate
during 2007, dropping back to 3.5% or so.
So far, nonfarm payrolls show little slowing. Compared
to a year ago, employment statewide has grown by 4.7%
through October. That gives Arizona the distinction of
having the fastest job growth in the country. When seasonally adjusted annual rates are used, the rate of growth
during recent months registers 4.7% as well. That’s only
slightly slower than the 5.1% increase for all of 2005.
It’s possible that reported data from the CES program
(which is based on a very small sample of employers) is
being overstated. This often happens during cycle downturns leading to downward revisions. However, comparisons of published numbers to the QCEW estimates are
very close through 1Q2006, suggesting little revision
when the estimates are re-benchmarked next spring.
The industry responsible for the most new jobs is
(surprise!) construction. During the past year construction has accounted for 21% of all new jobs created,
although representing only 9% of total jobs. (Normally,
6% are in construction.) Here again, there is little sign
of slowing so far.
Although nonresidential construction remains robust,
the preponderance of construction workers is employed
on residential projects (“stick-built” houses are much
more labor intensive). As builder backlogs disappear,
workforce reductions will become commonplace.
All measures considered, the Arizona economy still
has plenty of momentum going into the New Year.
Other than the sales data, it’s still too early to see the
effects of the correction taking place in real estate.
Those should become visible in the very near future.

Will the Real Estate Retrenchment Drag
the Economy into Recession?
Over the past 35 years, the real estate sector (as measured by construction employment) has turned down
four times. Each time, the downturn has occurred prior
to the beginning of recessionary periods. The shaded

2.

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

EXHIBIT 2
When Building Activity Declines the Economy Slows
Construction and Nonfarm Employment, AZ
000s Seasonally Adjusted

boxes in Exhibit 2 are officially recognized periods
of nationwide recession.
During these periods, overall job creation in
Arizona (as measured by nonfarm jobs) has slowed
to near zero. That is, during national recessions,
Arizona’s job machine simply stops creating jobs.
Aggregate employment does not shrink. During
the late 1980s, real estate suffered its worst set-

back ever. The industry suffered five years of
contraction during which real estate prices
plummeted, the state’s monstrous savings and
loan industry vanished, and most real estate
developers and builders were forced into
bankruptcy. Even so, Arizona’s overall economy
continued to grow until the national recession,
which was short and mild, finally arrived in 1990.

Our forecast from one year ago called for a significant slowdown in growth
during the second half of 2006 as consumers pulled back and housing markets
retreated. The nation’s economy has followed this script rather closely.

EXHIBIT 3
Inventories Have Soared to Record High
Months Supply of Housing
MLS Listing to Sales Ratio

In 1991, Arizona’s workforce stopped growing, but
it did not contract.
Construction employment will soon peak and
move lower, but strong nonresidential building
will limit the downside. Hotels, offices, industrial
and retail construction have experienced doubledigit gains during the past year. A rather modest
20,000 jobs or so will likely be lost during 2007,
which will do little more than alleviate the skilled
labor shortage plaguing the industry. These losses
are insufficient to bring the economy to a standstill, and overall nonfarm jobs will continue to
grow, albeit more slowly.

How Long Will the Real Estate
Correction Last?
As in any down market, a psychological adjustment to a better balance between fear and greed is
necessary. During the recent boom phase, there
was no fear. Buyers stood in line to get their name
on a lottery list to buy a home and complained if
they weren’t one of the lucky ones! (They won’t let
me buy a home!) Homeowners sold their existing
home and used the equity to buy a half dozen others using highly leveraged financing. Investors
(including short-term speculators, aka “flippers”)
accounted for nearly a third of all residential
transactions in Arizona markets. Realtors became
order takers. Multiple full-price-plus offers were
commonplace. During the frenzy, housing became

seriously overbought with prices inflated well
beyond economic fundamentals. No fear. All greed.
Then investors left, sensing that the easy money
had been made. Within a few months, market
psychology had done an about face. Fear was
rediscovered and markets are still trying to
rediscover the right balance. So where are we now
in the “correction”?
Every housing down-cycle has three phases. The
first is denial, wherein sellers refuse to budge and
hold on in hopes that they eventually will get
their price. Buyers believe that prices will fall and
therefore have no motivation to buy. It’s as if buyers read the newspapers but sellers do not. During
this phase, inventories of resale homes soar as the
market virtually ceases to function.
The second phase is acceptance. Owners of
resale homes capitulate and lower their prices or
simply move to the sidelines and decide to stay
put. Unable to sell their existing homes, they cancel the contract on the new home they hoped to
move into. Home builders aren’t in the business to
hold spec properties so they move quickly to
reduce swelling inventories through price reductions, free upgrades, cars, vacations, and other
promotions that effectively reduce the price. This
in turn reinforces downward pressure on prices in
resale markets. During this phase, prices fall for
both new and resale homes. Buyers feel vindicated
and remain on the sidelines.

The third stage is consolidation. Finally, inflated price
expectations are wrung out of the market and prices
once again reflect economic fundamentals. Prices start
to reflect the value of houses as shelter rather than as
an investment. Buyers return to the market, inventories
fall and prices stabilize. The market thereby returns to
“normal” and the stage is finally set for a new
expansion phase.
Arizona’s housing markets are about half-way
through this process. Prices are declining but inventories are still rising and are at the highest levels in at
least a decade. At current sales rates, there is an eightmonth supply of homes for sale (Exhibit 3).
We expect prices to continue declining through most
of 2007 and for inventories to be drawn down to a
more normal 4-5 months by year end. Housing prices
nationwide are expected to decline between 2-4%
during 2007, the first decline since the Great
Depression. In Arizona, a decline of 10% or more is
possible, given that prices nearly doubled during the
past five years. Construction of new homes will remain
subdued until inventories return to normal.

The Outlook:
Slower Growth but No Recession
2006 will go into the record books as the second
biggest year for growth during the current expansion,
nearly matching the explosion in 2005. The fifth year of
this expansion, 2007, will see a moderation of growth
to below trend. Nonfarm employment will grow by
2.4% in 2007, compared to the average of 3.3% over
the past decade. Between 60,000 and 65,000 jobs will
be created statewide.
Downside risks to the outlook are four-fold. The
housing downturn could turn into a free fall with
prices plunging 10-15% or more nationwide.
Widespread loan defaults and shrinkage in support
industries could be enough to sink the overall
economy. Second, the economy remains quite
vulnerable to another energy shock (oil prices surging
above $100 per barrel) or terrorist event on US soil.
Third, inflation could be much worse and that would
force the Fed to raise interest rates even further rather
than lowering them next year as widely expected.
Finally, a crash in the dollar brought on by a sudden
reversal of foreigners’ willingness to buy US debt could
cause longer term interest rates to soar. These events
could lead to a consumer-led recession similar in
length and duration as the last two recessions.
These fears are enough to keep business leader
confidence in the cautionary zone for some time. ■

The industry responsible for the most new jobs is
(surprise!) construction. During the past year construction
has accounted for 21% of all new jobs created.

3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2005
179,114.0
8.9
39,837
4.5
74,818.0
13.5
6,045.0
3.4
85,835
0.1
2,503.2
5.1
408.7
8.4
2,094.5
4.5
488.2
5.5
366.3
8.2
252.2
4.3
403.3
1.0

2006
196,741.5
9.8
42,454
6.6
81,267.6
8.6
6,252.7
3.4
66,062
-23.0
2,623.3
4.8
433.1
6.0
2,190.4
4.6
513.9
5.3
391.7
6.9
261.8
3.8
411.7
2.1

2007
209,681.2
6.6
43,917
3.4
84,902.2
4.5
6,456.4
3.3
57,005
-13.7
2,686.3
2.4
423.3
-2.3
2,263.2
3.3
526.1
2.4
407.4
4.0
269.8
3.1
421.3
2.3

2008
223,046.0
6.4
45,419
3.4
88,866.9
4.7
6,644.6
2.9
62,635
9.9
2,749.3
2.3
418.5
-1.1
2,331.0
3.0
538.1
2.3
417.9
2.6
279.9
3.8
429.6
2.0

2009
239,986.8
7.6
47,187
3.9
94,027.2
5.8
6,843.8
3.0
77,280
23.4
2,837.1
3.2
417.3
-0.3
2,419.9
3.8
560.2
4.1
433.8
3.8
292.0
4.3
440.2
2.5

2010
260,850.9
8.7
49,133
4.1
100,393.0
6.8
7,055.8
3.1
87,019
12.6
2,957.6
4.2
436.9
4.7
2,520.9
4.2
587.1
4.8
455.6
5.0
304.3
4.2
451.9
2.7

2011
283,167.7
8.6
51,182
4.2
107,217.6
6.8
7,283.5
3.2
92,996
6.9
3,078.5
4.1
455.7
4.3
2,622.9
4.0
614.5
4.7
479.2
5.2
316.5
4.0
461.8
2.2

125,931.7
8.9
45,669
3.5
52,025.1
14.7
3,895.2
3.7
62,617
-4.0
1,788.0
6.2
300.9
9.2
1,487.1
5.6
366.4
7.6
296.9
8.4
169.7
4.8
225.5
2.1

139,010.5
10.4
48,649
6.5
56,585.2
8.8
4,038.4
3.7
43,610
-30.4
1,870.9
4.6
313.1
4.0
1,557.9
4.8
381.4
4.1
316.5
6.6
178.4
5.1
229.0
1.6

148,445.5
6.8
50,376
3.6
59,148.4
4.5
4,163.6
3.1
38,539
-11.6
1,918.8
2.6
298.0
-4.8
1,620.9
4.0
391.8
2.7
336.9
6.4
183.1
2.6
233.9
2.2

158,288.7
6.6
52,239
3.7
62,224.3
5.2
4,292.6
3.1
42,205
9.5
1,963.2
2.3
293.4
-1.5
1,669.8
3.0
402.9
2.8
345.5
2.6
189.9
3.7
239.0
2.2

171,022.7
8.0
54,331
4.0
66,754.9
7.3
4,436.1
3.3
56,777
34.5
2,029.9
3.4
296.1
0.9
1,733.8
3.8
419.2
4.1
356.8
3.3
198.2
4.4
246.2
3.0

187,094.3
9.4
56,467
3.9
72,495.4
8.6
4,600.7
3.7
74,286
30.8
2,131.1
5.0
318.2
7.5
1,812.9
4.6
439.8
4.9
373.8
4.8
207.1
4.4
254.4
3.3

205,214.1
9.7
58,697
3.9
78,320.0
8.0
4,778.8
3.9
80,379
8.2
2,246.2
5.4
340.0
6.9
1,906.2
5.1
462.6
5.2
400.5
7.1
215.8
4.2
262.0
3.0

26,154.4
5.9
38,327
3.8
10,984.9
10.9
957.6
2.8
11,913
14.4
365.0
1.4
55.4
3.1
309.6
1.1
59.0
1.9
45.5
4.9
39.4
0.8
77.4
-3.2

28,393.5
8.6
40,260
5.0
11,815.9
7.6
986.8
3.0
8,989
-24.5
379.1
3.9
57.6
4.0
321.4
3.8
61.0
3.4
48.0
5.3
41.8
6.0
78.2
1.1

30,287.8
6.7
41,753
3.7
12,265.5
3.8
1,011.9
2.5
8,092
-10.0
387.8
2.3
56.8
-1.3
330.9
2.9
62.2
2.1
51.2
6.7
42.7
2.1
79.2
1.3

32,067.7
5.9
43,238
3.6
12,774.1
4.1
1,035.3
2.3
9,272
14.6
393.1
1.4
55.4
-2.6
337.7
2.1
63.6
2.2
52.3
2.1
44.1
3.3
80.3
1.4

34,532.2
7.7
44,801
3.6
13,441.9
5.2
1,061.6
2.5
10,768
16.1
403.9
2.8
56.7
2.5
347.2
2.8
65.6
3.1
53.1
1.6
46.0
4.3
81.8
1.8

37,188.7
7.7
46,496
3.8
14,167.0
5.4
1,088.8
2.6
11,151
3.6
416.4
3.1
58.5
3.2
357.9
3.1
67.6
3.0
55.1
3.8
47.8
4.0
83.4
1.9

39,782.8
7.0
48,316
3.9
14,847.5
4.8
1,115.1
2.4
10,770
-3.4
426.7
2.5
59.4
1.5
367.3
2.6
69.2
2.5
57.2
3.9
49.4
3.3
84.4
1.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

19,825
17,100
2,725
13.7

19,900
16,800
3,100
15.6

19,925
17,825
2,100
10.5

20,050
17,975
2,075
10.3

19,975
17,925
2,050
10.3

-0.9
-0.6
-3.5
-2.7

-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
0.0

18,725
6,550
750
17,975
1,950
3,850
12,175
3,300
8,875

18,400
6,550
800
17,600
1,875
3,875
11,850
3,125
8,725

19,725
6,750
800
18,925
1,900
4,050
12,975
3,475
9,500

20,050
6,650
825
19,225
1,850
3,975
13,400
3,475
9,925

20,200
6,750
850
19,350
1,925
3,975
13,450
3,450
10,000

-0.7
-0.4
-5.6
-0.5
1.3
0.0
-0.9
5.3
-2.9

-1.2
-0.5
3.6
-1.4
2.1
-2.5
-1.6
2.7
-2.9

14,978
6,715
1,084
7,180
2,501
6,326
1,430

14,692
6,674
1,203
6,815
2,329
8,115
1,643

14,423
6,296
1,049
7,078
2,574
7,469
1,463

13,374
6,922
1,122
5,331
2,266
8,867
1,475

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-12.2
5.3
6.3
-29.8
-13.2
-18.3
7.4

10.8
12.9
-0.8
10.5
-5.1
-7.5
0.2

Note: As of Jan 2005, Apache County
no longer reports monthly permits.

38,000
34,575
3,425
9.0

37,975
34,225
3,750
9.9

37,750
35,150
2,600
6.9

38,000
35,400
2,600
6.8

37,600
34,925
2,675
7.1

2.0
2.6
-6.1
-8.0

-0.1
0.4
-4.7
-4.6

29,500
19,575
3,650
2,900
750
25,850
5,350
800
550
1,300
3,700
3,175
1,050
9,925
1,775
8,150

29,000
19,625
3,725
2,975
750
25,275
5,400
825
550
1,275
3,400
3,375
1,075
9,375
1,600
7,775

30,025
20,075
3,700
2,975
725
26,325
5,400
825
550
1,300
3,825
3,400
1,075
9,950
1,800
8,150

30,375
20,150
3,775
3,000
775
26,600
5,500
850
575
1,200
3,925
3,275
1,050
10,225
1,800
8,425

30,250
20,050
3,825
3,075
750
26,425
5,500
850
575
1,200
3,925
3,150
1,025
10,200
1,700
8,500

2.6
4.2
7.0
10.8
-6.3
2.0
-0.5
13.3
4.5
4.3
7.5
4.1
0.0
-0.2
1.5
-0.6

1.2
3.7
0.5
5.8
-15.6
1.3
0.2
8.4
-5.0
13.3
9.8
3.0
7.0
-3.2
0.5
-3.9

94,862
71,832
8,976
14,054
4,896
24,798
3,536

92,740
67,848
9,554
15,339
5,242
20,853
3,904

89,927
68,294
8,543
13,091
4,762
26,173
3,521

95,081
68,510
9,284
17,287
7,349
21,013
3,547

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.7
5.1
26.1
10.2
36.3
2.5
18.2

10.4
11.1
16.0
3.8
-10.6
30.0
4.7

41
41

45
45

40
40

44
40

46
46

-27.0
-22.0

-1.1
-2.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

12,750
11,900
850
6.7

13,000
12,125
875
6.7

13,425
12,800
625
4.7

13,750
13,075
675
4.9

14,175
13,500
675
4.8

15.7
17.9
-15.6
-27.1

5.8
6.7
-7.4
-12.1

7,500
5,175
675
6,825
1,750
2,750
2,325
350
1,975

7,575
5,325
725
6,850
1,700
2,900
2,250
350
1,900

7,825
5,500
800
7,025
1,725
2,975
2,325
350
1,975

8,400
5,775
950
7,450
1,825
3,000
2,625
325
2,300

8,875
6,225
1,125
7,750
1,975
3,125
2,650
325
2,325

17.9
28.4
87.5
11.9
29.5
14.7
-0.9
0.0
-1.1

7.3
11.1
23.0
6.0
17.7
5.0
0.1
2.6
-0.3

23,053
18,537
2,119
2,397
835
3,843

21,940
17,737
1,630
2,574
880
4,450

22,626
18,245
1,905
2,475
900
3,014

22,763
18,701
1,883
2,179
926
3,736

...
...
...
...
...
...

21.9
28.1
14.6
-10.2
11.1
51.9

25.7
29.0
20.3
8.2
-7.7
60.3

70,100
66,400
3,700
5.3

70,400
66,300
4,100
5.8

69,600
66,700
2,900
4.2

70,300
67,400
2,900
4.1

69,600
66,700
2,900
4.2

1.9
2.6
-12.1
-13.8

2.6
3.0
-5.6
-8.0

64,300
45,000
7,200
3,600
3,600
57,100
9,200
500
1,700
4,200
6,700
13,600
1,900
19,300
3,100
16,200

65,000
45,900
7,400
3,700
3,700
57,600
9,400
500
1,700
4,300
6,700
14,000
1,900
19,100
2,900
16,200

65,000
45,800
7,200
3,600
3,600
57,800
9,500
500
1,700
4,400
7,100
13,600
1,800
19,200
3,000
16,200

66,000
45,600
7,300
3,600
3,700
58,700
9,400
500
1,700
4,400
7,100
13,400
1,800
20,400
3,000
17,400

65,900
45,300
7,200
3,500
3,700
58,700
9,200
400
1,700
4,400
7,100
13,500
1,800
20,600
2,800
17,800

2.8
2.5
7.5
6.1
8.8
2.3
-1.1
-20.0
0.0
10.0
-4.1
5.5
0.0
3.5
-6.7
5.3

4.2
4.6
7.5
6.0
8.9
3.9
-1.3
5.4
1.5
14.6
1.8
7.7
-0.9
3.3
-6.6
5.2

157,660
97,276
32,202
28,183
9,818
36,214
24,747

153,364
92,415
31,663
29,286
10,009
30,060
24,749

150,003
94,793
30,648
24,563
8,934
40,728
21,927

160,401
105,927
31,153
23,322
9,914
33,059
22,946

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.1
19.3
16.1
-6.5
15.7
-6.2
7.3

9.5
8.5
11.6
11.0
-5.0
25.6
6.4

61
61

57
55

90
90

72
72

79
79

-10.2
-10.2

4.9
5.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

3,600
3,425
175
4.9

3,700
3,500
200
5.4

3,850
3,700
150
3.9

3,925
3,775
150
3.8

4,075
3,900
175
4.3

16.4
18.2
-12.5
-24.8

5.9
6.8
-8.6
-13.3

4,250
3,800
3,150
1,100
275
375
450
50
400

4,300
3,850
3,175
1,125
275
400
450
50
400

4,450
3,950
3,225
1,225
275
450
500
50
450

4,575
4,075
3,325
1,250
300
450
500
50
450

4,650
4,150
3,400
1,250
300
450
500
50
450

22.4
24.8
25.9
13.6
0.0
38.5
5.3
0.0
5.9

11.6
14.1
15.5
2.5
-0.7
15.6
-4.2
5.3
-5.0

11,524
10,367
270
887
309
6,666
623

12,156
11,039
285
832
284
3,755
353

12,405
11,314
281
810
295
4,879
678

9,684
8,978
246
460
196
5,680
687

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-8.3
-6.3
21.4
-41.1
-27.1
12.7
2.8

16.3
15.8
15.4
23.8
5.7
321.8
38.6

95,000
91,300
3,700
3.9

94,700
90,800
3,900
4.1

96,300
93,300
3,000
3.1

97,100
93,900
3,200
3.3

97,100
93,800
3,300
3.4

5.7
6.3
-10.8
-15.6

5.1
5.5
-4.6
-9.1

63,700
53,000
13,200
9,400
3,800
50,500
12,200
600
2,400
5,400
8,800
8,200
2,200
10,700
1,300
9,400

63,200
53,000
13,400
9,600
3,800
49,800
12,300
600
2,400
5,300
8,600
8,100
2,300
10,200
1,300
8,900

64,500
53,400
13,500
9,700
3,800
51,000
12,200
600
2,400
5,400
8,900
8,100
2,300
11,100
1,300
9,800

65,400
53,600
13,500
9,700
3,800
51,900
12,400
600
2,400
5,300
9,000
8,100
2,300
11,800
1,300
10,500

66,000
53,900
13,400
9,600
3,800
52,600
12,700
600
2,500
5,400
9,000
8,000
2,300
12,100
1,300
10,800

6.8
7.4
9.8
12.9
2.7
6.0
6.7
0.0
13.6
5.9
5.9
5.3
9.5
4.3
0.0
4.9

7.2
7.7
10.8
13.6
4.6
6.3
6.3
-2.7
11.1
10.9
5.3
4.7
12.3
4.8
3.4
5.0

179,180
134,469
22,520
22,191
7,731
77,896
8,443

177,265
131,296
23,000
22,970
7,850
66,432
7,772

185,738
142,470
22,618
20,649
7,511
74,545
6,950

173,641
132,190
22,338
19,112
8,125
78,850
8,287

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

1.2
1.6
8.8
-8.8
12.9
25.3
5.5

11.0
10.5
9.1
16.4
-0.4
27.0
14.0

230
216

169
169

196
179

214
178

142
139

-55.1
-54.0

-20.3
-21.0

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

20,325
19,050
1,275
6.3

20,600
19,250
1,350
6.6

21,325
20,350
975
4.6

20,875
19,825
1,050
5.0

20,850
19,775
1,075
5.2

2.0
3.3
-17.3
-18.9

0.2
0.7
-6.9
-7.0

14,150
9,525
2,100
12,050
2,175
5,250
4,625
575
4,050

14,125
9,600
2,175
11,950
2,200
5,225
4,525
550
3,975

14,725
9,675
2,175
12,550
2,175
5,325
5,050
550
4,500

14,625
9,650
2,250
12,375
2,150
5,250
4,975
525
4,450

14,725
9,725
2,300
12,425
2,175
5,250
5,000
475
4,525

5.0
6.0
21.1
2.5
1.2
2.4
3.1
-9.5
4.6

2.2
3.9
3.3
2.0
1.5
5.2
-1.2
-4.9
-0.8

37,525
23,892
5,625
8,008
2,790
10,758
1,386

42,476
28,697
5,493
8,286
2,832
10,781
1,482

37,678
26,315
4,839
6,523
2,373
9,165
1,285

35,988
24,741
5,264
5,983
2,544
8,804
1,221

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

2.4
4.0
12.8
-10.4
11.0
-16.2
-0.0

12.1
13.4
7.6
10.5
-5.4
25.9
12.3

90,175
86,400
3,775
4.2

89,625
85,325
4,300
4.8

90,600
87,325
3,275
3.6

89,275
85,925
3,350
3.8

90,150
86,500
3,650
4.0

2.0
2.1
0.7
-1.3

3.2
3.1
4.9
1.7

53,350
46,050
10,900
7,350
3,550
42,450
11,550
950
2,275
3,975
6,950
6,950
2,500
7,300
525
6,775

52,850
45,850
10,875
7,350
3,525
41,975
11,375
925
2,325
4,100
6,875
6,900
2,475
7,000
550
6,450

53,725
46,050
10,925
7,450
3,475
42,800
11,300
925
2,325
4,125
7,175
6,825
2,450
7,675
525
7,150

54,125
46,075
10,950
7,525
3,425
43,175
11,325
925
2,325
3,950
7,225
6,925
2,450
8,050
525
7,525

54,925
46,775
11,000
7,600
3,400
43,925
11,625
925
2,350
3,900
7,400
7,075
2,500
8,150
500
7,650

2.5
2.3
-0.7
6.3
-13.4
3.3
0.9
-2.6
8.0
2.0
6.9
6.0
-2.9
3.5
-4.8
4.1

3.7
4.0
-1.2
2.4
-7.7
5.0
5.0
-3.1
6.1
4.9
7.4
7.3
4.4
1.8
-1.2
2.0

182,467
135,528
18,844
28,095
9,788
71,891
5,280

173,157
123,509
18,597
31,050
10,612
63,762
5,177

165,712
122,528
17,482
25,703
9,349
60,616
4,522

155,069
115,052
17,577
22,441
9,540
56,434
4,407

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-13.7
-15.5
8.6
-17.9
1.6
-7.8
2.1

6.5
6.4
4.7
8.3
-6.8
16.0
8.0

242
178

129
119

296
244

120
112

125
99

-61.9
-68.7

-30.4
-37.4

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

7,950
7,450
500
6.3

7,850
7,325
525
6.7

7,575
7,175
400
5.3

7,550
7,125
425
5.6

7,375
6,975
400
5.4

2.1
4.1
-23.8
-25.4

-0.9
-0.2
-9.7
-8.9

5,325
3,300
500
4,825
1,325
1,475
2,025
225
1,800

5,425
3,325
500
4,925
1,325
1,500
2,100
225
1,875

5,400
3,300
450
4,950
1,350
1,500
2,100
225
1,875

5,325
3,200
425
4,900
1,300
1,475
2,125
225
1,900

5,375
3,275
450
4,925
1,325
1,500
2,100
225
1,875

2.4
6.5
0.0
2.6
-3.6
20.0
-3.4
0.0
-3.8

-0.7
5.2
4.4
-1.2
-1.2
12.3
-8.5
0.0
-9.4

17,986
9,653
1,970
6,363
2,217
2,708
535

17,619
8,379
2,205
7,034
2,404
3,312
526

16,235
7,983
1,950
6,301
2,292
1,656
515

15,062
7,935
1,548
5,579
2,372
2,172
461

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-6.8
-7.5
-16.5
-2.7
20.5
-36.1
-0.3

0.4
-1.4
-7.4
6.3
-9.6
37.4
9.4

81,400
67,400
14,000
17.2

83,700
65,800
17,900
21.4

80,900
66,800
14,100
17.4

77,900
65,800
12,100
15.5

76,600
65,800
10,800
14.1

3.9
6.5
-9.2
-12.7

4.4
5.7
-2.9
-6.8

53,300
38,600
8,700
5,500
3,200
44,600
9,800
1,100
1,500
3,600
6,100
6,300
1,500
14,700
3,300
11,400

51,200
38,400
8,800
5,500
3,300
42,400
9,800
1,100
1,400
3,600
6,000
6,200
1,500
12,800
3,400
9,400

52,400
38,400
8,800
5,500
3,300
43,600
9,600
1,100
1,400
3,600
6,100
6,300
1,500
14,000
3,400
10,600

52,800
38,400
8,700
5,400
3,300
44,100
9,700
1,100
1,400
3,600
6,100
6,300
1,500
14,400
3,400
11,000

53,800
39,100
8,800
5,400
3,400
45,000
10,000
1,100
1,400
3,900
6,200
6,300
1,400
14,700
3,500
11,200

5.3
6.5
17.3
8.0
36.0
3.2
2.0
0.0
-6.7
11.4
1.6
10.5
-6.7
2.1
12.9
-0.9

6.3
6.8
13.2
12.3
14.8
5.0
3.3
0.0
-1.7
4.5
2.8
16.7
-2.1
4.8
12.0
2.8

128,106
93,328
14,550
20,227
7,046
40,492
3,012

123,764
88,150
12,902
22,712
7,762
31,886
2,286

127,702
94,605
12,357
20,740
7,544
38,920
3,280

124,369
96,618
13,293
14,458
6,146
46,284
3,716

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.8
3.3
6.9
-30.1
-13.5
16.8
53.7

8.6
7.4
11.8
12.7
-3.8
1.6
19.8

134
127

83
83

99
99

113
108

107
102

-36.3
-39.3

-26.6
-27.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

16,550
15,225
1,325
8.0

16,675
14,925
1,750
10.5

16,950
15,475
1,475
8.7

16,925
15,300
1,625
9.6

17,300
15,675
1,625
9.4

6.1
7.9
-8.5
-13.7

5.0
6.3
-8.0
-12.3

13,825
10,500
825
13,000
5,650
4,025
3,325
1,300
2,025

13,400
10,250
875
12,525
5,375
4,000
3,150
1,300
1,850

13,625
10,225
925
12,700
5,275
4,025
3,400
1,350
2,050

13,775
10,350
950
12,825
5,300
4,100
3,425
1,350
2,075

14,375
10,875
1,000
13,375
5,600
4,275
3,500
1,375
2,125

8.3
8.5
11.1
8.1
5.2
12.5
7.7
12.2
4.9

7.8
10.2
-9.0
9.1
10.0
15.7
0.9
9.2
-3.7

40,568
32,122
3,238
5,209
1,815
12,309
1,068

40,800
31,948
3,499
5,352
1,829
9,309
1,042

40,728
32,367
2,933
5,428
1,974
12,853
925

38,345
28,873
3,946
5,526
2,349
8,942
779

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.2
10.7
14.3
-0.8
22.8
-13.5
-12.3

10.7
12.2
17.3
-0.5
-14.6
61.0
10.5

61
58

52
50

69
64

61
58

35
35

-27.1
-27.1

15.4
16.1

57,975
55,025
2,950
5.1

57,150
54,025
3,125
5.5

57,800
55,525
2,275
3.9

57,350
54,900
2,450
4.3

57,250
54,750
2,500
4.4

1.6
2.3
-11.5
-12.9

3.0
3.1
0.2
-2.6

38,150
25,975
3,750
2,900
850
34,400
6,750
425
1,000
4,800
4,050
4,250
950
12,175
5,025
7,150

37,825
25,950
3,875
3,000
875
33,950
6,700
425
1,000
4,750
4,000
4,250
950
11,875
5,000
6,875

38,550
26,050
3,875
2,975
900
34,675
6,775
425
1,000
4,825
3,975
4,225
950
12,500
4,975
7,525

38,650
26,075
3,825
2,900
925
34,825
6,800
425
1,000
4,825
4,000
4,250
950
12,575
5,000
7,575

38,850
26,225
3,850
2,950
900
35,000
6,875
400
975
4,875
4,050
4,275
925
12,625
4,975
7,650

2.1
2.4
2.0
1.7
2.9
2.1
5.8
-11.1
-2.5
8.3
2.5
0.6
-21.3
1.4
-1.0
3.0

4.1
4.7
5.6
8.2
-2.4
4.0
4.8
-5.4
2.8
7.8
1.6
7.4
-5.3
3.0
1.6
4.0

77,674
55,741
9,227
12,705
4,426
28,449
2,643

90,726
68,016
9,533
13,177
4,503
24,218
2,390

82,879
61,102
9,591
12,186
4,432
23,577
2,545

85,375
67,949
9,355
8,070
3,431
25,741
2,506

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.9
17.5
8.5
-39.6
-25.2
20.7
-3.6

6.5
6.9
6.8
4.2
-11.3
38.7
4.2

70
70

75
75

63
63

57
57

63
63

-31.5
-30.0

-24.5
-23.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

443.3
422.9
20.4
4.4

446.0
424.6
21.4
4.5

446.2
430.1
16.1
3.4

454.9
437.3
17.6
3.7

457.4
439.7
17.7
3.9

4.2
5.1
-14.5
-17.0

2.5
2.8
-4.7
-7.0

374.1
1.7
28.5
29.3
4.7
11.6
8.8
42.9
9.3
7.1
17.5
48.5
52.0
6.3
8.1
28.3
15.0
10.4
60.4
34.5

374.7
1.7
29.0
29.5
4.7
11.7
8.7
43.2
9.2
7.1
17.7
49.2
51.9
6.0
8.0
27.8
14.9
10.2
60.6
34.2

379.9
1.7
29.0
29.6
4.7
11.8
8.7
43.2
9.3
7.0
17.8
49.4
52.9
6.0
8.0
28.2
14.9
10.4
63.8
38.4

389.6
1.8
28.9
29.4
4.6
11.7
8.7
43.5
9.2
7.0
18.1
49.9
53.7
6.0
8.1
28.7
14.9
10.5
71.2
45.6

393.4
1.8
29.4
29.6
4.6
11.8
8.8
44.0
9.1
7.0
18.3
50.8
54.2
6.3
8.0
29.0
15.1
10.5
71.5
46.0

5.7
38.5
10.1
4.6
-4.2
5.4
4.8
7.6
-2.2
-2.8
7.6
7.6
5.7
18.9
3.9
5.8
1.3
1.9
3.8
3.6

4.1
20.4
10.1
2.7
-3.6
2.8
4.3
4.0
0.8
-2.2
8.7
6.5
5.2
19.2
3.4
5.7
1.1
2.1
-1.0
-2.0

977,105
659,263
129,600
109,086
79,156
194,981
22,815

901,477
593,459
124,361
100,332
83,325
172,424
17,898

952,979
641,948
124,420
104,629
81,981
181,732
19,865

895,144
595,369
127,747
110,099
61,929
219,326
20,945

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.8
1.4
2.3
5.5
-35.2
17.6
-3.4

7.6
8.0
6.5
8.6
3.1
12.6
7.6

834
793
41

676
632
44

678
636
42

484
439
45

522
481
41

-41.9
-39.6
-60.0

-22.0
-21.5
-26.0

417,120
1,524
273,701

335,851
1,227
273,717

370,671
1,381
268,408

273,322
1,077
253,781

292,205
1,095
266,854

-17.8
-20.0
2.8

-5.1
-13.4
10.4

343,147
22,131

340,385
20,023

313,392
24,186

299,914
19,496

...
...

-4.3
-18.6

4.7
6.4

III
2005

IV
2005

I
2006

II
2006

III
2006

961.5
1.3
3.2
1.9
5.8

968.7
1.3
3.2
1.9
5.9

975.9
1.3
3.2
1.9
5.9

983.2
1.3
3.3
1.9
6.0

990.4
1.3
3.3
2.0
6.0

3.0
-1.5
0.7
2.1
3.2

3.0
-0.8
0.4
1.2
13.5

26,358
18,225
2,073
120
5,037
5,050
27,414

26,955
18,671
2,130
121
5,142
5,151
27,827

27,554
19,120
2,187
123
5,246
5,252
28,234

28,114
19,529
2,241
125
5,348
5,353
28,595

28,673
19,939
2,295
126
5,450
5,453
28,950

8.8
9.4
10.7
5.5
8.2
8.0
5.6

8.2
8.5
10.0
4.5
8.0
8.1
5.0

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2006

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, PSHIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

1,998.6
1,920.1
78.5
3.8

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

1,991.6
1,909.4
82.2
4.0

1,991.2
1,929.5
61.7
3.0

2,008.1
1,940.8
67.3
3.2

2,008.6
1,940.5
68.1
3.4

3.4
4.2
-15.7
-17.1

4.1
4.6
-6.8
-10.3

1,861.2
2.8
185.1
109.6
14.9
40.6
15.0
27.4
85.7
230.4
8.2
53.5
32.8
112.0
39.5
325.3
30.7
159.3
23.9
27.2
127.4
69.6
22.0
188.8
86.6

1,852.6
2.7
186.9
109.3
15.0
40.5
15.1
27.3
86.2
231.6
8.2
53.5
32.5
112.7
39.6
326.0
28.9
159.5
22.9
26.2
125.0
70.4
22.0
181.2
79.2

1,882.9
2.8
187.9
109.1
15.0
40.3
15.1
27.3
86.4
232.7
8.2
53.7
32.5
113.0
39.8
327.1
30.7
160.7
22.9
26.2
126.1
70.5
22.2
203.1
101.9

1,901.3
2.8
189.6
108.7
15.0
40.0
15.0
27.3
86.2
232.7
8.3
53.6
32.2
113.4
39.5
329.0
32.1
161.1
23.3
26.6
127.2
70.7
22.5
214.5
113.5

1,924.4
2.7
192.8
108.6
15.2
39.8
15.0
27.3
87.2
236.1
8.3
54.7
32.1
114.1
40.0
333.3
32.6
162.2
24.2
27.6
129.1
71.0
22.3
218.2
116.6

5.2
58.8
11.8
-0.5
5.6
-0.3
-2.6
-0.7
4.4
6.9
1.2
-0.5
-3.0
3.1
5.3
7.2
5.2
4.8
9.0
1.8
5.7
3.6
1.8
3.3
4.4

5.7
28.4
13.6
1.4
5.2
2.2
0.9
-0.6
4.2
7.9
1.3
0.6
-1.7
3.8
5.4
8.9
5.3
4.4
7.6
0.2
6.2
5.2
1.1
1.7
2.4

4,771,884
3,251,079
596,350
529,829
394,626
1,549,182
91,025

4,407,028
2,957,947
572,245
469,287
407,550
1,291,211
60,141

4,583,887
3,121,230
572,518
472,485
417,654
1,393,905
68,407

4,498,495
3,044,918
587,826
523,086
342,665
1,511,280
90,433

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.5
5.8
6.9
9.1
-13.9
25.5
7.8

11.9
11.4
10.6
11.0
18.4
27.1
7.4

4,538
3,800
58
680

3,326
2,518
88
720

2,861
2,704
92
65

2,707
2,083
28
596

2,158
1,662
100
396

-60.3
-57.3
-30.6
-71.7

-24.3
-26.5
33.9
-19.1

2,446,496
6,946
352,216

1,977,003
5,878
336,339

1,986,575
5,944
334,215

1,772,257
5,423
326,804

1,794,554
5,371
334,119

-28.6
-30.7
3.0

-15.5
-27.2
17.1

3,608,776
44,990

3,709,773
45,428

3,473,887
46,349

3,041,533
43,777

3,367,020
45,845

-2.4
-3.6

1.2
-1.2

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSHIA: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
III
2005

IV
2005

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,913.0
3,948.8
Natural Increase
9.9
9.9
Births
16.3
16.4
Deaths
6.4
6.5
Net Migration
25.7
26.0
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
127,365
130,745
Earnings by Place of Work
103,434
106,489
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
11,353
11,717
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-73
-73
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
18,856
19,234
Plus: Transfer Payments
16,500
16,813
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
32,550
33,110
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2006

II
2006

III
2006

3,984.6
9.9
16.5
6.6
25.9

4,020.5
10.0
16.6
6.6
25.9

4,056.2
10.0
16.7
6.7
25.8

3.7
1.6
2.4
3.6
0.4

3.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
1.7

134,106
109,524
12,076
-75
19,610
17,123
33,656

137,376
112,479
12,428
-75
19,954
17,446
34,169

140,645
115,435
12,780
-75
20,298
17,768
34,674

10.4
11.6
12.6
-3.4
7.6
7.7
6.5

10.2
11.4
12.4
-1.7
6.7
8.3
6.3

6,070.7
13.0
24.2
11.3
38.4

6,121.8
12.3
23.9
11.6
38.6

6,173.1
13.0
24.8
11.8
38.5

6,225.8
14.4
25.3
10.9
39.4

6,278.8
13.5
24.7
11.2
38.8

3.4
3.9
1.8
-0.7
1.0

3.4
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.9

182,481
140,752
15,348
629
28,611
27,838

183,942
141,261
15,427
648
29,325
28,134

190,051
146,934
16,177
653
29,760
28,885

195,247
150,973
16,578
672
30,749
29,435

199,246
153,581
16,839
683
31,466
30,357

9.2
9.1
9.7
8.6
10.0
9.0

9.4
10.7
11.8
3.5
6.3
7.4

102,370
22,494
15,887
394
15,494
30,059
39,803

102,920
22,561
15,780
349
15,432
30,047
39,584

107,499
23,314
16,179
444
15,734
30,787
40,917

110,730
23,909
16,287
426
15,861
31,361
41,503

112,793
24,357
...
...
...
31,733
...

10.2
8.3
6.5
12.4
6.3
5.6
7.5

11.4
10.1
9.7
-7.5
10.3
5.8
6.2

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

AUG
2006

SEP
2006

2,197,903
121,540
728,895
1,347,468
138,817
18,865
84,601
35,351

2,450,693
136,140
819,062
1,495,491
159,823
23,982
98,088
37,753

2,183,101
124,882
709,125
1,349,094
119,751
12,218
81,668
25,865

1,592,239
128,652
581,951
881,636
170,346
19,041
118,354
32,951

1,413,261
130,651
503,734
778,876
186,426
26,565
132,319
27,542

1.4
9.5
3.6
-1.2
-7.1
-14.0
-4.8
-10.4

0.6
-1.8
0.6
0.9
0.2
-11.3
0.8
11.7

631,927
1,649,621
745,902

646,110
1,716,996
724,645

631,369
1,721,191
706,321

...
...
690,701

...
...
...

-4.6
3.4
-9.9

-2.9
-1.9
-10.5

202.9
198.6

203.5
199.2

203.9
199.6

202.9
198.4

201.8
197.0

1.3
0.9

3.4
3.4

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

OCT
2006

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

2,955.7
2,818.3
137.4
4.4

SEP
2006

OCT
2006

2,952.9
2,804.4
148.5
4.7

2,953.4
2,841.7
111.7
3.6

2,975.9
2,858.5
117.4
3.7

2,978.0
2,860.3
117.7
3.9

3.5
4.4
-13.8
-18.8

3.7
4.2
-5.5
-8.2

2,594.8
10.6
243.1
149.0
19.2
45.8
27.3
34.6
103.1
320.3
11.9
69.1
44.5
128.3
52.0
397.1
40.1
243.2
34.7
46.9
187.0
96.7
53.1
329.5
157.6
40.5

2,582.0
10.7
246.1
149.1
19.3
45.7
27.5
34.5
103.3
321.5
11.9
69.1
44.3
129.2
52.2
398.0
37.1
243.3
33.5
46.1
183.8
97.6
52.5
318.2
145.6
40.2

2,623.0
10.8
247.0
148.9
19.3
45.4
27.6
34.5
103.3
322.6
11.9
69.2
44.1
129.4
52.4
399.3
40.3
245.5
33.3
46.1
185.7
97.7
53.4
347.6
177.8
40.3

2,654.3
10.9
248.7
148.4
19.3
45.1
27.5
34.5
103.1
323.2
11.8
69.1
43.8
130.0
52.4
401.1
42.3
246.5
33.7
46.6
187.5
97.9
53.5
369.3
199.8
40.6

2,684.2
11.0
252.4
148.4
19.5
45.0
27.5
34.6
104.4
328.2
11.8
70.3
43.6
130.7
53.0
406.2
43.4
248.3
34.5
47.7
189.5
98.8
53.0
374.4
204.5
40.8

4.7
34.1
10.4
0.7
4.8
-0.4
2.2
-0.9
4.4
5.9
-0.8
-0.1
-3.1
3.1
6.2
6.3
3.1
4.7
9.9
3.0
5.6
3.9
1.3
2.9
3.3
-0.2

5.1
18.1
11.8
1.9
4.8
1.7
2.3
-0.8
4.2
6.0
1.5
1.1
-1.8
4.0
6.6
8.0
3.4
4.5
9.1
3.2
6.1
5.1
1.3
1.3
1.7
-1.0

16.59
15.14
15.04
12.09
17.98

16.91
15.45
15.47
12.40
18.51

16.82
15.88
15.21
12.14
18.64

17.01
15.90
14.99
11.78
18.69

16.99
15.96
15.17
11.79
18.88

6.7
12.6
0.5
-3.9
2.2

4.8
3.0
1.9
0.5
-1.3

6,874,177
4,599,802
885,554
759,540
629,281
219,224
789,079
290,756
83,327
330,330
2,066,512
202,966
166,543

6,422,358
4,227,113
849,758
689,183
656,303
224,293
806,261
280,413
88,971
288,499
1,740,569
205,804
129,365

6,636,147
4,449,490
850,164
691,310
645,184
234,672
992,254
297,281
67,188
317,564
1,879,232
188,366
135,882

6,480,115
4,322,684
872,896
750,193
534,341
227,157
855,475
285,814
67,007
300,857
2,030,187
183,734
161,410

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

3.4
4.7
7.8
8.9
-17.2
2.5
9.7
11.2
22.3
7.0
21.2
59.4
6.4

11.0
10.6
11.1
10.4
13.9
-2.4
13.5
11.9
17.0
13.4
24.8
61.2
7.8

6,236
5,375
116
745

4,617
3,756
134
727

4,398
4,130
182
86

3,881
3,159
88
634

3,284
2,717
157
410

-56.0
-53.3
-21.1
-71.8

-23.5
-25.4
35.1
-18.0

565
451
17
97

514
407
9
98

617
482
13
122

582
466
8
108

687
520
10
157

-93.8
-95.0
-50.0
-77.7

-86.8
-88.4
-15.7
-75.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (2000=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2005

IV
2005

I
2006

II
2006

III
2006

200.0
196.9
192.7

201.3
197.6
193.4

202.7
198.9
194.5

206.2
202.3
198.0

207.3
203.4
199.1

3.7
3.3
3.3

3.6
3.6
3.7

113.1
112.1

114.0
112.9

115.0
113.4

115.9
114.6

116.4
115.3

2.9
2.9

3.1
3.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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