O C T O B E R

Forecast for
Arizona in 2036:
A Top 5 State?
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 2006

During the next 30 years, Arizona will add
another 8.5 million residents to the 6
million-plus who already call Arizona
home. That will boost Arizona’s
population to more than today’s Illinois,
the fifth largest state. Arizona’s growth is
multi-faceted and unique, comparable
only to Florida and Nevada; all three are
long-standing high-growth states. The
challenge to plan for and accommodate
the tremendous growth yet to come has
never been greater. It is in this sense that
Arizona likely will continue to be
“overpopulated,” and its economy and
infrastructure “underdeveloped.”

INSIDE:
Forecast Tables ...................................4
Arizona Economic Indicators..........5

This quarter’s forecast updates the long term,
30-year outlook. It is more of a projection than a
forecast, and is best described as the most likely of
all possible paths that the state’s economy might
take. As such, it is an unbiased projection derived
from the state’s historical growth, current
attributes, and competitive position.
In the long term, supply factors such as population and labor force, capital stock (infrastructure
as well as financial assets), and technological
progress determine potential growth. At the state
level, population growth is the most important
factor.
Arizona’s population explosion in recent years
results from a combination of forces. First and
foremost is continuation of the migration of the
nation’s population from northern states to the
Sunbelt. Second is the movement westward to the
“land of possibilities.” Third is the “rebound” effect
from California as that state’s domestic net migration flows turn negative as Californians flock to
neighboring states. Fourth is the attraction of
retirees to Arizona’s low-taxes, low cost of living,
and abundant sunshine. Fifth is the flow of immigrants – both legal and illegal – from Latin
America. And finally, high birth rates attributable
to Arizona’s large and rapidly-growing Hispanic
population are adding to growth of the resident
population.
Using Census Bureau population estimates for
2005, Arizona was the 17th-largest state. By mid2006, it surpassed Tennessee to gain 16th. Within
the coming year Arizona will become the 13th
largest, surpassing Indiana, Washington, and
Massachusetts. By 2036, it will be solidly among
the top 10 and competing for the number 5 ranking! (Exhibit 1).

Arizona’s economy 30 years from now
In the year 2036:
• More than 14.6 million people will call Arizona
home. That’s 3.8% of the nation’s population,
up from 2.0% today.
• Over 20% of the population will be age 65
and over, compared to 12% today.
• Annual increases in population will approach
375,000 per year compared to 200,000 today.
• The working age population (ages 16-64) will

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

2 0 0 6

•

F A L L

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Arizona Soon Will Be #13
(July 2005 Population, millions)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Georgia
New Jersey
North Carolina
Virginia
Massachusetts
Washington
Indiana
Tennessee
Arizona
Missouri
Maryland
Wisconsin

36.1
22.9
19.3
17.8
12.8
12.4
11.5
10.1
9.1
8.7
8.7
7.6
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5

account for 59% of the total, down from
66% today. This cohort will grow at half
the rate of the past 30 years during the
next decade, and only one-third that rate
after 2015. (Exhibit 2).
• Roughly 44% of the population (including
children and retirees) will be employed –
about the same as today. The “employment-to-population” ratio, after increasing
for decades, will plateau as the baby boom
generation retires.
• Per capita incomes of Arizonans will
remain significantly below national averages. After peaking in the early 1980s
near 95%, per capita income relative to
the US fell to near 85%, where it will
remain for another decade before drifting
below 80% in 2036. The decline has more
to do with overpopulation than with
anemic wage gains.
• The average wage per privatesector job will exceed
$124,000, compared to

EXHIBIT 2
Dramatic Shifts Lie Ahead as Baby Boomers Retire
$41,500 today. Private sector wages rates
will rise slightly relative to the national average — to near 96%. Public sector wages will
lose ground and fall below 90% of national
public sector wages.
• As Arizona’s population ages, transfer payments (primarily social security disbursements) will comprise an increasing share of
personal income. The share from dividends,
interest, and rents will decline.
• Arizona will create 3.7 million jobs over the
next 30 years to total 6.3 million.
• Growth leaders (sectors growing more rapidly
than the overall rate) include professional and
business services; health care and social services; transportation and warehousing; leisure
and hospitality; and trade.
• Sectors growing more slowly than average
include government, utilities, mining, manufacturing, construction, other services, information, and financial activities.
• Arizona’s traditional goods producing sectors
(mining, manufacturing, and construction)
will account for a diminishing portion of jobs,
continuing a long downward slide.
Forecasts by five-year increments are shown in
Exhibit 3. Arizona’s population will top 7 million
in 2010 and 8 million only five years later. Each
subsequent decade will add another 2 million or
more. Metro Phoenix’s population approaches 10
million by 2036, and metro Tucson’s head count
will near 1.75 million. (These current metro definitions will no doubt change to include surrounding counties as developable land is exhausted and
growth spills into surrounding counties.)
In percentage terms, growth over the next 30
years will be slower than during the past 30. As
shown in Exhibit 4, population growth will average 2.9% per year, compared to 3.3%.
Employment averages 3.0%, down from 4.2%.
Both personal income and retail sales in current
dollars grow more slowly, partly because the rate
of inflation is only slightly more than half.
The projections described above are the most
likely outcome. It’s possible that technological
changes, capital stock, the labor force, and popu-

Shares of Total Population, U.S.
By Age Group

EXHIBIT 4
Average Annual Growth Rates, Past and Projected
Average Annual Growth Rates, AZ

lation grow more quickly. With a stronger economy nationwide and increased migration flows,
Arizona’s population could climb to 15.1 million,
or 1⁄2 million higher than in the base scenario.
Contrarily, these same supply factors could grow
more slowly and migration flows to Arizona could
be significantly slower. In our low scenario, which

contains much more inflation and less real
growth, the year 2036 population reaches 13.4
million, some 1.2 million lower. We assign subjective probabilities of 60% to the base, with the
remainder evenly split between the two alternatives. The range of possibilities is portrayed in
Exhibit 5.

Within the coming year Arizona will become the 13th largest state.
By 2036, it will be competing for the number 5 ranking!
2.

EXHIBIT 3
Forecasts Through 2036
2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

Arizona
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

6,247
2,632
197
83

7,200
3,000
280
110

8,400
3,500
400
140

9,700
4,100
560
180

11,100
4,800
780
230

12,824
5,536
1,079
292

14,600
6,300
1,475
370

Metro Phoenix
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

4,040
1,868
138
58

4,700
2,200
200
80

5,600
2,600
290
100

6,500
3,000
400
130

7,500
3,500
560
170

8,500
4,000
770
220

9,700
4,500
1,050
290

Metro Tucson
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

987
384
29
12

1,100
420
40
15

1,200
470
55
20

1,400
500
70
23

1,498
562
99
27

1,600
600
130
30

1,700
650
170
40

EXHIBIT 5
No Catastrophic Crash Here
Population, AZ

millions

Alternative Scenarios

combinations of two or more metropolitan areas
that are linked by transportation systems and
business networks as well as culturally. They also
have, or will have by 2040, a population exceeding
10 million. Although the “Valley of the Sun,” so
named by the authors, is the smallest megapolitan
area, it will easily exceed the population requirement by 2030 or so.
Research by the Maricopa Association of
Governments shows that development will extend
far beyond both urban cores. By 2050 significant
densities will stretch from Sierra Vista to
Kingman.
The scale of growth yet to come underscores the
need for regional planning and coordinated implementation of infrastructure development. What
this research makes clear is that the entire state is
part of one globally connected economic system
with Phoenix as the central city (the Phoenix
Citistateii). We have long argued that economic
development initiatives should be coordinated so
as to advance the entire region. Additionally,
transportation and water clearly need to be
addressed in a region-wide framework. Will there
be enough water and how will it be distributed?
How can the transportation link between Tucson
and Phoenix be developed to accommodate intraregional flows? These are only a couple of the
myriad over-arching questions that affect
Arizona’s long-term development. ■
i Lang, Robert E. and Dawn Dhavale, “Beyond Megalopolis:
Exploring America’s New ‘Megapolitan’ Geography,”
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, 2005.

Where Will We Put All This Growth?
The existing metropolitan Phoenix area
(Maricopa and Pinal counties) will account for
nearly 10 million, or two-thirds of the total.
Metro Tucson’s population will top 1.7 million,
accounting for 12 percent. As we already see, the

area along I-10 connecting the two cities will
develop quickly.
In a study published last year, Robert E. Lang at
Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute identifies
the three-county aggregate as one of the country’s ten “megapolitan areasi.” These ten areas are

ii According to www.citistates.com, the term citistate was coined
in 1993 by Neal Pierce and Curtis Johnson and is defined as “A
region consisting of one or more historic central cities surrounded by cities and towns which have a shared identification, function as a single zone for trade, commerce and communication, and are characterized by social, economic and
environmental interdependence. It is similar to city states of
antiquity (e.g. Athens, Rome, Carthage) or medieval times (e.g.
the Hanseatic League), except that modern citistates engage in
instant electronic communication and capital transfer, and are
the chief recipients of world population growth.”

The average wage per private-sector job in 2036 will
exceed $124,000, compared to $41,500 today.
3.

F O R E C A S T

T A B L E S

Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

2000
132,557.8
9.7
33,885
6.3
54,345.8
8.8
5,165.8
2.8
58,568
-6.9
2,242.6
3.7
387.8
2.2
1,854.8
4.0
437.8
3.3
326.2
6.3
228.9
2.6
366.6
3.5

2005
180,216.4
9.6
40,256
5.7
74,997.9
13.5
6,045.0
3.4
85,829
0.2
2,509.2
5.4
410.5
8.9
2,098.7
4.7
488.9
5.7
368.1
8.7
253.2
4.7
404.3
1.2

2006
196,710.0
9.2
41,923
4.1
83,015.3
10.7
6,246.5
3.3
76,616
-10.7
2,632.4
4.9
433.9
5.7
2,198.7
4.8
513.0
4.9
395.5
7.5
266.8
5.4
412.8
2.1

2007
209,236.7
6.4
43,354
3.4
86,980.0
4.8
6,428.3
2.9
66,851
-12.7
2,691.8
2.3
425.4
-2.0
2,266.6
3.1
523.8
2.1
409.2
3.5
275.1
3.1
422.3
2.3

2008
223,098.4
6.6
44,942
3.7
90,614.8
4.2
6,612.6
2.9
75,693
13.2
2,755.9
2.4
423.3
-0.5
2,332.7
2.9
536.1
2.4
419.7
2.6
284.5
3.4
430.7
2.0

2009
240,500.4
7.8
46,771
4.1
95,321.2
5.2
6,811.2
3.0
81,221
7.3
2,847.3
3.3
427.1
0.9
2,420.4
3.8
558.2
4.1
436.7
4.0
295.3
3.8
440.5
2.3

2010
259,485.4
7.9
48,660
4.0
101,202.2
6.2
7,019.1
3.1
85,308
5.0
2,942.0
3.3
434.3
1.7
2,507.9
3.6
579.8
3.9
454.5
4.1
305.8
3.5
451.0
2.4

92,974.8
10.9
38,537
7.8
37,294.7
8.5
3,277.8
3.1
45,310
-5.0
1,578.4
3.5
286.8
1.3
1,291.6
4.0
321.4
3.4
264.1
6.5
149.7
2.0
195.7
3.4

126,622.3
9.5
45,946
4.1
52,025.1
14.7
3,895.2
3.7
62,617
14.1
1,778.4
5.6
300.2
8.9
1,478.3
5.0
363.7
6.8
291.8
6.6
169.7
4.8
224.7
1.8

137,638.5
8.7
47,548
3.5
57,659.8
10.8
4,040.1
3.7
55,730
-11.0
1,868.3
5.1
312.4
4.1
1,556.0
5.3
382.9
5.3
315.7
8.2
178.4
5.2
228.9
1.9

148,136.1
7.6
49,284
3.7
60,090.3
4.2
4,171.9
3.3
48,143
-13.6
1,930.7
3.3
313.6
0.4
1,617.1
3.9
394.3
3.0
334.7
6.0
184.2
3.2
234.8
2.6

159,905.1
7.9
51,301
4.1
63,698.9
6.0
4,310.7
3.3
55,109
14.5
1,992.2
3.2
316.0
0.8
1,676.3
3.7
407.0
3.2
346.8
3.6
191.0
3.7
241.1
2.7

172,902.1
8.1
53,492
4.3
67,672.2
6.2
4,458.5
3.4
62,941
14.2
2,057.9
3.3
313.4
-0.8
1,744.5
4.1
423.5
4.1
360.7
4.0
198.8
4.1
247.8
2.8

187,520.7
8.5
55,718
4.2
72,183.7
6.7
4,614.0
3.5
66,242
5.2
2,136.5
3.8
324.0
3.4
1,812.5
3.9
439.8
3.8
375.4
4.1
206.4
3.8
254.8
2.8

20,513.6
7.6
31,476
4.5
8,502.1
8.2
848.6
2.4
7,799
-8.7
349.9
4.0
57.6
5.8
292.4
3.7
55.0
2.6
43.5
5.8
39.9
4.6
76.3
4.4

26,526.4
7.4
38,604
4.6
10,984.9
10.9
957.6
2.8
11,913
14.4
371.0
3.0
55.8
3.9
315.2
2.9
59.4
2.5
45.6
5.0
40.2
2.8
81.1
1.5

28,692.2
8.2
40,333
4.5
12,025.5
9.5
987.3
3.1
10,003
-16.0
384.3
3.6
58.3
4.5
326.0
3.4
61.4
3.5
47.4
4.0
42.0
4.5
82.6
1.8

30,623.6
6.7
41,778
3.6
12,461.2
3.6
1,012.6
2.6
9,278
-7.3
393.1
2.3
58.5
0.4
334.6
2.6
62.7
2.2
50.1
5.6
43.1
2.7
83.7
1.3

32,611.1
6.5
43,299
3.6
12,994.3
4.3
1,036.8
2.4
9,896
6.7
399.5
1.6
57.4
-1.8
342.0
2.2
64.3
2.4
51.3
2.4
44.5
3.1
84.9
1.4

34,993.0
7.3
44,887
3.7
13,601.9
4.7
1,062.5
2.5
10,553
6.6
408.9
2.4
58.0
0.9
350.9
2.6
66.1
2.9
52.3
2.0
46.1
3.6
86.2
1.6

37,528.0
7.2
46,569
3.7
14,304.6
5.2
1,088.6
2.5
10,709
1.5
418.8
2.4
58.8
1.4
360.0
2.6
67.8
2.5
54.0
3.2
47.5
3.1
87.6
1.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

Compound Annual Growth Rates
00-05
05-10
00-10
6.3

7.6

6.9

3.5

3.9

6.9

6.7

6.2

6.4

3.2

3.0

6.9

7.9

-0.1

6.9

2.3

3.2

2.8

1.1

1.1

1.1

2.5

3.6

3.1

2.2

3.5

2.8

2.4

4.3

3.4

2.0

3.8

2.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

6.4

8.2

7.3

3.6

3.9

3.8

6.9

6.8

6.8

3.5

3.4

3.5

6.7

1.1

3.9

2.4

3.7

3.1

0.9

1.5

1.2

2.7

4.2

3.4

2.5

3.9

3.2

2.0

5.2

3.6

2.5

4.0

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

5.3

7.2

6.2

4.2

3.8

4.0

5.3

5.4

5.3

2.4

2.6

2.5

8.8

-2.1

3.2

1.2

2.5

1.8

-0.6

1.1

0.2

1.5

2.7

2.1

1.5

2.7

2.1

0.9

3.5

2.2

0.1

3.4

1.8

1.2

1.5

1.4

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

19,500
17,450
2,050
10.5

19,625
17,600
2,025
10.3

19,650
17,525
2,125
10.8

19,825
17,100
2,725
13.7

19,900
16,800
3,100
15.6

-0.1
-0.7
3.3
3.5

-2.1
-2.2
-0.8
1.3

19,500
6,575
725
18,775
1,925
3,925
12,925
3,100
9,825

19,625
6,625
750
18,875
1,900
3,975
13,000
3,125
9,875

19,500
6,625
775
18,725
1,900
3,950
12,875
3,175
9,700

18,725
6,550
750
17,975
1,950
3,850
12,175
3,300
8,875

18,425
6,550
800
17,625
1,875
3,875
11,875
3,150
8,725

-0.1
0.0
-3.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
-0.2
16.7
-5.2

-1.1
1.5
14.6
-1.6
2.1
-1.2
-2.3
2.7
-3.9

12,645
5,990
713
5,942
2,479
6,100
646

13,874
6,190
812
6,872
2,342
2,895
960

15,065
6,216
981
7,867
2,529
4,973
1,169

14,978
6,715
1,084
7,180
2,501
6,326
1,430

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.4
-24.6
18.3
22.6
-5.1
6.3
25.0

19.2
18.1
8.1
22.0
-3.3
0.4
3.8

Note: As of Jan 2005, Apache County
no longer reports monthly permits.

36,425
33,575
2,850
7.8

36,700
33,975
2,725
7.4

36,975
34,350
2,625
7.1

38,000
34,575
3,425
9.0

37,975
34,225
3,750
9.9

0.4
0.4
0.7
0.3

-0.6
-0.4
-2.4
-1.8

28,925
18,600
3,350
2,650
700
25,575
5,425
800
575
1,225
3,650
2,600
975
10,325
1,600
8,725

29,175
18,950
3,475
2,700
775
25,700
5,350
800
550
1,250
3,650
2,850
1,025
10,225
1,600
8,625

29,625
19,450
3,575
2,775
800
26,050
5,450
800
550
1,200
3,700
3,125
1,050
10,175
1,725
8,450

29,500
19,575
3,650
2,900
750
25,850
5,350
800
550
1,300
3,700
3,175
1,050
9,925
1,775
8,150

29,200
19,600
3,725
2,975
750
25,475
5,375
825
550
1,275
3,400
3,375
1,075
9,600
1,600
8,000

1.0
0.9
0.0
5.3
-16.7
1.1
-5.3
3.1
0.0
8.5
5.4
4.7
2.4
1.1
1.6
0.9

1.2
4.3
0.4
4.9
-12.9
1.3
1.1
8.6
-8.0
15.3
11.9
1.2
12.6
-4.2
0.4
-5.1

80,823
62,859
6,759
11,205
4,674
15,340
1,782

91,937
71,868
6,394
13,675
4,662
21,652
2,383

91,185
68,213
8,270
14,702
4,727
21,636
2,814

94,862
71,832
8,976
14,054
4,896
24,798
3,536

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.7
10.9
15.6
6.7
-17.4
6.9
32.5

13.2
13.3
14.7
11.6
-11.4
38.3
10.1

57
55

35
35

56
56

41
41

45
45

32.4
32.4

21.9
27.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

12,625
11,900
725
5.7

12,950
12,225
725
5.6

12,625
11,950
675
5.3

12,750
11,900
850
6.7

13,000
12,125
875
6.7

6.3
6.8
0.0
-6.0

3.3
3.7
-2.3
-5.4

7,825
5,150
600
7,225
1,800
2,750
2,675
325
2,350

7,850
5,275
650
7,200
1,775
2,850
2,575
325
2,250

7,825
5,275
650
7,175
1,825
2,800
2,550
325
2,225

7,500
5,175
675
6,825
1,750
2,750
2,325
350
1,975

7,475
5,225
725
6,750
1,725
2,775
2,250
350
1,900

7.2
8.9
20.8
5.9
15.0
2.8
3.4
0.0
4.1

4.9
7.4
9.9
4.5
13.5
3.6
0.1
3.2
-0.4

22,295
18,343
1,889
2,063
861
3,740

23,035
18,675
1,767
2,593
884
3,672

24,620
20,246
1,815
2,559
823
4,819

23,053
18,537
2,119
2,397
835
3,843

...
...
...
...
...
...

27.0
26.5
26.7
30.5
0.9
62.6

25.3
27.4
21.9
14.3
-9.3
54.6

68,300
65,100
3,200
4.7

68,800
65,700
3,100
4.5

68,400
65,500
2,900
4.2

70,100
66,400
3,700
5.3

70,400
66,300
4,100
5.8

2.5
2.5
2.5
0.0

2.4
2.7
-1.6
-4.0

63,700
44,100
6,700
3,200
3,500
57,000
9,300
500
1,700
4,000
7,400
12,700
1,800
19,600
2,700
16,900

64,500
44,800
6,900
3,300
3,600
57,600
9,300
500
1,700
4,100
7,300
13,100
1,900
19,700
2,700
17,000

64,400
45,100
7,000
3,400
3,600
57,400
9,400
500
1,700
4,100
7,300
13,200
1,900
19,300
3,000
16,300

64,300
45,000
7,200
3,600
3,600
57,100
9,200
500
1,700
4,200
6,700
13,600
1,900
19,300
3,100
16,200

64,800
45,900
7,400
3,700
3,700
57,400
9,400
500
1,700
4,300
6,800
13,900
1,900
18,900
2,800
16,100

3.5
3.1
7.2
5.7
8.8
3.1
-3.1
0.0
0.0
13.2
-1.4
6.1
0.0
4.4
-6.7
6.6

4.5
5.2
6.9
5.0
8.8
4.2
-1.6
9.1
1.5
17.0
4.0
8.2
0.9
2.9
-6.5
4.8

125,670
79,856
27,163
18,652
7,781
25,853
14,469

137,238
85,099
27,828
24,312
8,287
32,298
16,918

152,691
93,375
29,537
29,779
9,574
32,675
22,962

157,660
97,276
32,202
28,183
9,818
36,214
24,747

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.3
3.1
1.4
27.3
-1.5
24.3
4.3

11.0
8.9
10.9
20.2
-5.0
38.3
8.7

269
77

129
65

57
30

61
61

57
55

-10.9
-14.1

61.8
13.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

3,575
3,425
150
4.2

3,700
3,525
175
4.7

3,625
3,450
175
4.8

3,600
3,425
175
4.9

3,700
3,500
200
5.4

6.5
6.9
0.0
-6.1

3.4
3.8
-3.2
-6.3

4,025
3,550
2,950
1,075
275
325
475
25
450

4,050
3,600
3,000
1,050
275
325
450
25
425

4,150
3,675
3,050
1,100
300
325
475
50
425

4,250
3,800
3,150
1,100
275
375
450
50
400

4,325
3,875
3,175
1,150
300
400
450
50
400

10.9
14.8
15.5
0.0
0.0
23.1
-14.3
0.0
-15.8

9.0
11.8
13.5
-1.3
4.6
4.5
-8.1
5.3
-9.3

10,856
9,909
260
687
286
4,746
515

10,340
9,049
263
1,029
351
5,421
655

11,870
10,716
321
834
268
4,778
325

11,524
10,367
270
887
309
6,666
623

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

18.1
16.3
14.4
45.7
12.8
...
70.0

20.8
19.1
22.1
44.8
14.6
...
72.2

93,600
90,300
3,300
3.5

94,600
91,200
3,400
3.6

94,400
91,300
3,100
3.3

95,000
91,300
3,700
3.9

94,700
90,800
3,900
4.1

5.2
5.3
2.6
-2.5

4.7
4.8
1.2
-3.3

62,900
51,200
12,500
8,700
3,800
50,400
12,000
600
2,300
5,100
8,900
7,600
2,200
11,700
1,200
10,500

64,000
52,100
12,800
9,000
3,800
51,200
12,100
600
2,300
5,100
9,000
8,000
2,200
11,900
1,300
10,600

64,300
52,400
13,000
9,200
3,800
51,300
12,100
600
2,300
5,100
9,000
8,100
2,200
11,900
1,300
10,600

63,700
53,000
13,200
9,400
3,800
50,500
12,200
600
2,400
5,400
8,800
8,200
2,200
10,700
1,300
9,400

63,200
52,900
13,400
9,600
3,800
49,800
12,200
600
2,400
5,300
8,600
8,100
2,300
10,300
1,400
8,900

6.8
7.5
11.7
14.3
5.6
5.5
7.0
0.0
9.1
6.0
4.9
5.2
9.5
3.0
7.7
2.3

7.2
7.7
10.9
13.8
4.7
6.3
5.9
-5.3
11.4
13.5
5.0
4.0
12.7
4.9
3.4
5.1

175,781
136,503
22,702
16,576
6,915
76,394
9,451

180,791
136,028
22,516
22,247
7,583
78,487
11,115

188,693
140,093
23,875
24,725
7,949
76,022
9,780

179,180
134,469
22,520
22,191
7,731
77,896
8,443

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.7
2.1
0.3
31.0
1.4
12.0
2.5

15.2
14.6
11.2
25.1
-0.9
28.5
14.1

350
348

274
268

391
379

230
216

169
169

-59.0
-58.8

-1.4
-0.7

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

20,100
18,950
1,150
5.7

20,350
19,225
1,125
5.5

20,450
19,375
1,075
5.3

20,325
19,050
1,275
6.3

20,600
19,250
1,350
6.6

-1.2
-1.3
0.0
1.2

-0.1
-0.0
-1.3
-1.2

13,950
9,450
2,100
11,850
2,225
5,125
4,500
425
4,075

14,125
9,400
2,075
12,050
2,200
5,125
4,725
475
4,250

14,375
9,500
2,050
12,325
2,200
5,250
4,875
525
4,350

14,150
9,525
2,100
12,050
2,175
5,250
4,625
575
4,050

14,125
9,600
2,175
11,950
2,200
5,225
4,525
550
3,975

0.7
2.7
10.1
-0.8
-1.1
1.5
-3.2
-4.3
-3.0

1.4
3.2
-2.8
2.1
1.8
6.4
-2.1
-3.3
-1.9

35,868
25,125
4,737
6,007
2,506
8,232
1,088

37,011
25,368
4,401
7,242
2,469
7,401
1,089

41,818
26,954
5,084
9,780
3,144
11,121
1,141

37,525
23,892
5,625
8,008
2,790
10,758
1,386

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-0.4
-5.2
-1.3
17.9
-8.8
77.1
18.1

17.0
17.8
8.1
21.1
-3.4
30.1
21.2

89,050
85,725
3,325
3.7

89,225
85,900
3,325
3.7

88,675
85,625
3,050
3.4

90,175
86,400
3,775
4.2

89,625
85,325
4,300
4.8

2.3
1.5
19.4
16.8

3.8
3.6
9.3
5.3

54,100
46,050
10,800
7,150
3,650
43,300
12,000
900
2,150
3,775
7,000
6,900
2,525
8,050
500
7,550

54,250
46,275
10,800
7,150
3,650
43,450
11,925
900
2,225
3,875
7,050
6,975
2,525
7,975
500
7,475

54,150
46,175
10,750
7,150
3,600
43,400
11,850
950
2,250
3,850
7,075
6,950
2,500
7,975
525
7,450

53,350
46,050
10,900
7,350
3,550
42,450
11,550
950
2,275
3,975
6,950
6,950
2,500
7,300
525
6,775

52,750
45,725
10,875
7,350
3,525
41,875
11,375
925
2,325
3,975
6,875
6,900
2,475
7,025
575
6,450

1.4
1.7
-0.5
5.0
-10.2
1.9
0.7
-7.5
3.3
0.6
6.6
5.3
-2.0
-0.7
4.5
-1.1

4.9
5.3
1.0
3.3
-3.0
6.0
6.4
-2.6
6.5
5.5
7.3
8.0
9.5
2.7
0.4
2.9

182,538
138,381
18,351
25,806
10,765
63,117
4,306

187,075
136,699
19,130
31,246
10,651
65,504
4,737

190,741
137,282
20,451
33,008
10,612
72,283
4,979

182,467
135,528
18,844
28,095
9,788
71,891
5,280

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.9
4.9
5.4
4.7
-19.0
19.4
23.3

14.8
14.5
6.2
22.8
-2.0
23.9
10.8

272
232

335
314

376
236

242
178

129
119

-56.9
-59.7

-18.2
-22.7

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

7,425
6,975
450
6.1

7,675
7,225
450
5.9

7,550
7,125
425
5.6

7,950
7,450
500
6.3

7,850
7,325
525
6.7

2.3
3.2
-8.7
-10.7

-1.6
-1.6
-1.2
0.5

5,425
3,300
550
4,875
1,350
1,400
2,125
225
1,900

5,500
3,350
575
4,925
1,350
1,425
2,150
225
1,925

5,475
3,350
600
4,875
1,325
1,425
2,125
225
1,900

5,325
3,300
500
4,825
1,325
1,475
2,025
225
1,800

5,425
3,325
500
4,925
1,325
1,500
2,100
225
1,875

2.8
9.0
5.3
2.6
-1.9
22.4
-5.6
0.0
-6.3

-1.3
4.4
9.7
-2.3
-0.2
7.3
-8.6
0.0
-9.5

20,395
11,787
1,980
6,628
2,765
3,218
785

22,212
11,091
1,971
9,150
3,119
3,407
452

18,347
9,211
2,044
7,092
2,280
2,863
476

17,986
9,653
1,970
6,363
2,217
2,708
535

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.3
-7.4
0.5
9.0
-15.6
-3.5
10.3

6.5
4.4
-2.1
13.5
-9.4
74.2
11.2

76,700
69,000
7,700
10.0

77,000
66,900
10,100
13.1

80,100
65,200
14,900
18.6

81,400
67,400
14,000
17.2

83,700
65,800
17,900
21.4

6.2
7.3
2.3
-3.7

4.0
4.3
2.4
-1.3

56,800
41,800
9,100
5,200
3,900
47,700
11,800
1,100
1,500
3,700
6,300
6,700
1,600
15,000
3,300
11,700

54,400
39,600
8,900
5,300
3,600
45,500
10,300
1,100
1,500
3,500
6,200
6,600
1,500
14,800
3,300
11,500

52,500
38,100
8,100
5,300
2,800
44,400
9,900
1,100
1,400
3,500
6,200
6,400
1,500
14,400
3,300
11,100

53,300
38,600
8,700
5,500
3,200
44,600
9,800
1,100
1,500
3,600
6,100
6,300
1,500
14,700
3,300
11,400

51,900
38,500
8,800
5,500
3,300
43,100
9,800
1,100
1,500
3,600
6,000
6,200
1,500
13,400
3,400
10,000

7.7
8.5
18.9
14.6
26.9
5.6
7.7
0.0
7.1
-2.7
1.7
14.8
0.0
5.5
9.7
4.2

6.0
6.4
10.3
12.6
6.7
5.2
3.0
0.0
0.6
5.3
3.3
17.5
-2.6
4.9
10.8
3.3

166,588
125,168
19,104
22,316
9,309
39,126
5,203

141,513
102,803
15,620
23,090
7,871
39,610
3,935

138,056
99,170
14,754
24,132
7,758
49,863
3,578

128,106
93,328
14,550
20,227
7,046
40,492
3,012

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

3.8
1.1
10.0
13.2
-12.4
-3.8
9.9

11.7
9.1
15.8
23.6
-1.4
12.3
17.4

159
154

117
112

189
184

134
127

83
83

-54.6
-53.4

-17.9
-16.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

16,500
15,500
1,000
6.1

16,625
15,650
975
5.9

16,475
15,525
950
5.8

16,550
15,225
1,325
8.0

16,675
14,925
1,750
10.5

4.1
5.1
-4.1
-7.8

4.3
5.2
-3.8
-7.6

14,225
10,875
825
13,400
5,975
4,075
3,350
1,250
2,100

14,275
10,900
850
13,425
6,000
4,050
3,375
1,275
2,100

14,200
10,775
825
13,375
5,875
4,075
3,425
1,300
2,125

13,825
10,500
825
13,000
5,650
4,025
3,325
1,300
2,025

13,475
10,225
850
12,625
5,350
4,025
3,250
1,300
1,950

6.5
5.7
-12.8
8.1
4.9
11.8
9.2
8.3
9.9

7.8
11.1
-10.5
9.3
12.0
15.9
-1.4
7.3
-6.1

43,102
33,243
4,163
5,695
2,376
11,143
1,712

44,992
33,962
4,226
6,805
2,319
8,764
1,403

41,521
31,575
3,907
6,038
1,941
12,602
1,286

40,568
32,122
3,238
5,209
1,815
12,309
1,068

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.4
7.6
13.8
-4.3
-25.9
107.6
4.6

13.4
13.9
20.8
6.7
-14.4
88.9
15.0

42
39

53
51

64
61

61
58

52
50

15.6
11.1

16.3
16.3

56,775
54,175
2,600
4.6

56,900
54,225
2,675
4.7

56,800
54,350
2,450
4.3

57,975
55,025
2,950
5.1

57,150
54,025
3,125
5.5

1.7
1.4
7.8
6.0

3.2
3.0
6.6
3.3

38,225
25,700
3,700
2,850
850
34,525
6,675
450
1,000
4,525
3,950
4,425
975
12,525
5,025
7,500

38,350
25,825
3,775
2,925
850
34,575
6,650
450
1,000
4,625
3,950
4,425
950
12,525
5,025
7,500

38,325
25,800
3,700
2,875
825
34,625
6,775
425
1,000
4,625
3,950
4,375
950
12,525
5,025
7,500

38,150
25,975
3,750
2,900
850
34,400
6,750
425
1,000
4,800
4,050
4,250
950
12,175
5,025
7,150

37,800
25,925
3,875
3,000
875
33,925
6,700
425
1,000
4,725
4,000
4,250
950
11,875
5,025
6,850

2.2
3.4
4.7
6.2
0.0
1.9
4.7
-5.6
0.0
6.2
-1.2
4.9
-2.6
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4

4.9
5.3
7.3
11.2
-4.3
4.6
3.4
-5.7
4.8
8.7
1.8
9.7
-0.6
3.9
2.9
4.7

87,842
63,961
10,661
13,220
5,515
23,568
3,857

89,294
64,737
9,924
14,633
4,988
26,353
3,182

89,395
66,401
9,528
13,466
4,329
26,389
3,183

77,674
55,741
9,227
12,705
4,426
28,449
2,643

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-8.1
-13.4
5.9
11.0
-14.1
43.6
5.0

8.0
6.6
5.7
17.6
-6.7
27.5
10.2

70
70

63
63

87
87

70
70

75
75

92.3
92.3

-13.9
-13.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

447.0
429.2
17.8
3.9

449.5
431.3
18.2
4.2

445.0
428.6
16.4
3.9

443.3
422.9
20.4
4.4

446.0
424.6
21.4
4.5

3.9
4.0
0.9
-2.2

1.5
1.5
1.6
-0.0

379.4
1.6
27.3
28.6
4.7
11.4
8.6
42.3
8.8
7.1
17.4
47.6
52.3
6.4
8.5
28.7
14.8
10.2
69.2
44.9

383.4
1.7
27.6
28.7
4.7
11.4
8.6
42.9
8.9
7.1
17.5
48.7
52.6
6.8
8.4
29.4
15.1
10.2
69.2
44.8

381.8
1.7
27.9
28.7
4.7
11.4
8.6
42.5
9.1
7.0
17.6
48.2
52.8
6.5
8.1
29.0
15.0
10.3
68.8
44.1

374.1
1.7
28.5
29.3
4.7
11.6
8.8
42.9
9.3
7.1
17.5
48.5
52.0
6.3
8.1
28.3
15.0
10.4
60.4
34.5

376.0
1.7
29.0
29.5
4.7
11.7
8.7
42.9
9.2
7.1
17.9
49.0
51.9
6.0
8.1
27.8
14.9
10.3
62.0
35.6

5.3
30.8
9.8
4.2
-2.1
4.5
3.6
6.5
0.0
0.0
7.2
6.8
4.8
20.0
5.2
5.7
0.7
1.0
3.2
2.6

3.2
9.4
9.7
1.6
-4.2
1.6
3.8
1.5
2.5
-2.7
8.6
6.0
4.9
14.9
2.4
5.5
0.7
2.9
-2.4
-3.9

1,017,895
679,864
136,494
128,121
73,417
218,339
46,727

1,011,050
656,152
139,612
122,888
92,397
183,428
38,518

996,934
650,036
137,680
117,538
91,681
211,471
29,411

982,560
659,263
135,055
109,086
79,156
194,981
22,815

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.6
5.4
10.3
8.4
8.2
6.0
-14.1

10.7
9.6
11.7
11.2
18.1
14.7
8.5

1,075
979
96

819
798
21

987
963
24

879
851
27

712
678
33

-30.9
-26.4
-69.0

-5.3
-4.6
-12.6

423,942
1,501
282,439

406,193
1,466
277,076

410,826
1,526
269,217

417,120
1,524
273,701

335,851
1,227
273,717

-18.5
-22.5
5.2

9.4
-4.8
16.1

409,761
24,771

380,148
24,208

375,866
23,208

343,147
22,131

340,385
20,023

0.4
-12.3

7.3
12.4

II
2005

III
2005

IV
2005

I
2006

II
2006

954.3
1.3
3.2
1.9
5.6

961.5
1.3
3.2
1.9
5.9

968.9
1.3
3.2
1.9
6.0

976.2
1.3
3.3
1.9
6.0

983.6
1.3
3.3
1.9
6.1

3.1
0.3
1.2
1.8
8.5

3.0
0.8
0.5
0.3
19.9

26,250
18,333
2,044
120
4,898
4,943
27,507

26,769
18,697
2,090
121
5,000
5,041
27,839

27,325
19,084
2,139
123
5,116
5,141
28,203

27,880
19,471
2,188
124
5,231
5,241
28,559

28,421
19,850
2,236
126
5,342
5,340
28,894

8.3
8.3
9.4
4.6
9.1
8.0
5.0

7.9
8.0
8.8
4.0
7.8
8.0
4.8

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2006

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

MAR
2006

APR
2006

1,972.2
1,902.6
69.6
3.5

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

1,986.4
1,915.3
71.1
3.7

1,980.8
1,916.3
64.5
3.4

1,998.6
1,920.1
78.5
3.8

1,991.6
1,909.4
82.2
4.0

4.2
4.4
0.1
-2.4

4.2
4.4
-1.1
-5.4

1,867.6
2.7
178.7
109.6
14.6
40.5
15.3
27.1
85.0
229.7
8.0
53.9
32.4
111.6
38.7
317.5
31.9
157.5
24.2
28.3
128.0
69.3
22.0
211.5
112.2

1,877.2
2.6
179.9
109.4
14.7
40.5
15.2
27.2
85.4
230.1
8.1
53.6
32.8
112.2
39.4
321.3
31.8
158.3
24.5
28.3
129.1
69.2
22.1
211.9
112.2

1,881.5
2.7
182.0
109.2
14.8
40.5
15.1
27.3
85.4
230.0
8.1
53.6
32.6
112.0
39.2
322.1
31.8
159.0
24.6
28.0
129.2
69.4
22.1
213.2
112.2

1,861.2
2.8
185.1
109.6
14.9
40.6
15.0
27.4
85.7
230.4
8.2
53.5
32.8
112.0
39.5
325.3
30.7
159.3
23.9
27.2
127.4
69.6
22.0
188.8
86.6

1,852.0
2.7
186.6
109.4
15.0
40.5
15.1
27.3
86.2
230.7
8.2
53.5
32.7
112.7
39.6
326.2
28.9
159.3
22.9
26.3
125.0
70.4
22.1
181.3
79.3

5.1
58.8
11.9
0.3
4.9
1.3
-0.7
-1.1
4.4
7.2
0.0
0.0
-2.1
3.1
5.3
8.5
5.9
3.8
8.5
0.0
6.0
4.1
1.4
0.4
-0.6

6.0
10.7
14.6
2.3
5.1
3.1
2.4
-0.4
4.1
8.2
1.7
1.4
-1.1
4.5
5.9
9.5
5.3
4.6
6.9
-0.7
6.4
5.8
1.0
1.3
2.2

4,924,810
3,362,447
616,637
607,689
338,038
1,417,472
193,120

4,867,056
3,238,432
630,726
578,921
418,978
1,295,096
162,137

4,845,550
3,217,230
621,995
552,671
453,654
1,399,841
117,613

4,785,673
3,251,079
610,139
529,829
394,626
1,549,182
91,025

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.3
7.9
13.1
9.8
29.4
23.5
23.4

15.3
14.9
13.7
12.7
25.9
28.3
9.5

4,658
3,814
258
586

4,373
3,374
126
873

4,967
4,007
104
856

4,538
3,800
58
680

3,326
2,518
88
720

-34.8
-40.5
-50.0
3.6

-9.2
-16.0
59.7
33.0

2,393,181
7,149
334,757

2,161,766
6,491
333,041

2,522,924
7,235
348,711

2,446,496
6,946
352,216

1,977,003
5,878
336,339

-30.5
-35.2
7.2

4.1
-16.7
26.5

3,810,342
46,970

3,578,243
43,908

3,573,731
45,364

3,608,776
43,858

3,709,773
45,428

-0.4
-4.3

2.4
0.7

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border
Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
II
2005

III
2005

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,877.3
3,913.2
Natural Increase
9.7
9.9
Births
16.1
16.3
Deaths
6.4
6.4
Net Migration
25.4
26.0
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
125,245
128,035
Earnings by Place of Work
100,852
103,073
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
10,870
11,116
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-74
-74
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
19,006
19,407
Plus: Transfer Payments
16,331
16,745
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
32,302
32,719
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2005

I
2006

II
2006

3,949.5
9.9
16.4
6.5
26.4

3,985.8
10.0
16.5
6.6
26.3

4,022.0
10.0
16.7
6.6
26.2

3.7
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.0

3.7
4.5
3.7
2.4
2.8

130,777
105,247
11,378
-74
19,856
17,127
33,112

133,507
107,420
11,639
-75
20,298
17,503
33,496

136,261
109,611
11,895
-75
20,726
17,894
33,879

8.8
8.7
9.4
-1.3
9.0
9.6
4.9

9.1
9.2
9.0
-1.0
7.9
10.4
5.2

6,020.0
12.6
24.2
11.6
37.3

6,070.3
13.0
24.2
11.2
37.7

6,120.8
12.3
23.9
11.7
38.0

6,171.4
12.9
24.8
11.8
37.9

6,221.7
12.6
24.6
12.0
37.1

3.3
0.1
1.7
3.5
-0.6

3.4
-0.7
2.9
7.3
1.5

177,474
137,589
15,024
664
27,011
27,234

182,683
143,281
15,566
640
27,164
27,165

187,119
145,893
15,808
643
28,803
27,589

191,181
149,288
16,345
646
29,138
28,457

195,418
152,582
16,657
649
29,706
29,141

10.1
10.9
10.9
-2.2
10.0
7.0

10.0
11.8
11.3
-0.8
5.8
6.1

99,238
22,402
15,950
738
15,212
29,481
39,199

103,223
23,361
16,696
874
15,823
30,094
40,200

104,729
23,795
16,533
759
15,774
30,571
39,657

107,235
24,402
16,619
632
15,988
30,979
40,006

109,695
24,973
...
...
...
31,409
...

10.5
11.5
8.9
-13.9
10.0
6.5
3.0

11.1
12.9
10.7
15.2
10.5
6.4
4.8

MAR
2006

APR
2006

MAY
2006

JUN
2006

1,250,468
119,789
439,030
691,649
385,291
64,426
277,141
43,724

1,626,568
159,827
605,048
861,693
317,776
44,237
219,453
54,086

1,839,467
147,604
640,275
1,051,588
200,188
29,037
123,810
47,341

2,197,903
121,540
728,895
1,347,468
138,817
18,865
84,601
35,351

2,449,820
136,140
818,189
1,495,491
159,823
23,982
98,088
37,753

4.6
-8.8
-3.9
11.4
27.6
5.6
53.6
-2.4

-1.4
-3.2
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0
-1.7
5.5

643,444
1,638,170
818,231

669,594
1,797,600
802,636

677,632
1,797,356
816,278

631,927
1,649,621
745,902

646,110
1,716,996
...

-6.3
-2.9
-13.6

-2.3
-4.0
-7.6

199.8
195.3

201.5
197.2

202.5
198.2

202.9
198.6

203.5
199.2

4.1
4.3

3.9
4.0

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

JUL
2006

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

MAR
2006

APR
2006

2,919.8
2,803.9
115.9
4.1

JUN
2006

JUL
2006

2,940.0
2,820.0
120.0
4.3

2,931.4
2,816.1
115.3
4.2

2,955.7
2,818.3
137.4
4.4

2,952.9
2,804.4
148.5
4.7

4.0
4.1
1.4
-2.1

3.6
3.7
0.1
-2.5

2,610.5
10.0
234.8
148.3
18.7
45.7
27.0
35.6
103.2
320.6
12.0
69.1
44.2
127.9
51.0
389.1
42.6
241.1
34.5
47.5
187.2
95.9
51.7
364.2
198.7
40.8

2,623.8
10.1
236.7
148.5
18.9
45.8
27.0
34.8
102.9
320.5
11.9
69.0
44.6
128.7
51.9
393.3
42.7
242.3
35.3
48.4
189.6
96.2
51.8
364.6
198.5
40.4

2,626.5
10.2
239.0
148.5
19.0
45.7
27.0
34.1
102.8
320.3
11.9
69.1
44.4
128.5
51.8
393.4
42.4
243.3
35.3
47.8
189.4
96.4
52.6
365.3
197.2
40.4

2,594.8
10.6
243.1
149.0
19.2
45.8
27.3
34.6
103.1
320.3
11.9
69.1
44.5
128.3
52.0
397.1
40.1
243.2
34.7
46.9
187.0
96.7
53.1
329.5
157.6
40.5

2,582.6
10.7
245.6
149.3
19.3
45.7
27.5
34.5
103.3
320.6
11.9
69.0
44.4
129.2
52.2
398.0
37.1
243.2
33.5
46.4
183.8
97.6
52.4
319.9
147.3
40.4

4.8
30.5
10.3
1.4
4.9
0.9
3.0
-1.7
4.4
5.7
0.0
0.4
-2.2
3.2
6.3
7.2
3.1
4.2
9.8
3.1
5.8
4.3
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.0

5.2
9.1
12.7
2.4
4.8
2.3
2.2
-0.3
4.0
6.0
2.2
1.9
-1.3
4.8
6.9
8.7
3.8
4.7
8.1
2.9
6.3
5.5
1.4
0.7
1.0
-1.4

16.34
14.57
14.86
12.27
17.48

16.36
14.70
15.12
12.37
17.87

16.54
14.99
14.99
12.13
18.15

16.59
15.14
15.04
12.09
17.98

16.83
15.49
15.29
12.24
18.50

4.9
4.0
2.1
-0.6
-2.4

4.3
0.7
2.5
2.0
-1.6

7,076,676
4,753,435
922,699
854,290
546,252
227,871
543,414
279,549
116,193
356,712
1,916,388
114,567
283,661

7,030,862
4,596,153
943,781
816,660
674,268
229,835
509,646
288,321
105,222
338,320
1,773,987
159,807
247,484

7,017,526
4,576,718
930,716
790,775
719,316
231,254
642,880
285,004
107,961
308,094
1,931,337
221,971
198,718

6,901,598
4,599,802
912,975
759,540
629,281
219,224
789,079
290,756
83,327
330,330
2,066,512
202,966
166,543

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.0
6.7
12.8
8.8
22.7
-5.1
14.3
13.3
16.1
11.9
21.1
66.3
12.0

14.2
13.7
12.6
12.1
23.3
-2.1
12.8
10.5
15.6
13.9
26.8
57.6
9.8

6,907
5,718
303
886

6,163
5,037
164
962

7,133
5,953
224
956

6,236
5,375
116
745

4,617
3,756
134
727

-36.1
-40.1
-32.3
-4.8

-8.8
-13.6
48.0
34.7

557
445
20
92

560
444
16
100

551
447
6
98

565
451
17
97

514
407
9
98

-79.6
-82.1
-18.2
-59.2

-25.4
-20.4
-9.8
-53.7

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2006

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2005

III
2005

IV
2005

I
2006

II
2006

198.5
194.5
190.1

200.0
196.9
192.7

201.3
197.6
193.4

202.7
198.9
194.5

206.2
202.3
198.0

3.9
4.0
4.2

3.6
3.8
3.9

112.2
110.9

113.1
112.1

114.0
112.9

115.0
113.4

115.9
114.6

3.3
3.3

3.1
3.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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