J U L Y High-Tech Powers Arizona’s Economy By William P. Patton and Marshall J. Vest The high-tech sector is an important component of the Arizona economy. It is a major source of employment and income in Arizona, and is considered to be a vital component of the state’s economic future. Research from the Milken Institute1 shows Arizona to be a “second tier” state with a ranking of 17 among all states, and they note that “the new engine of regional economic prosperity is based on how successful a given location is in attracting and expanding technology and science assets and leveraging them for economic development.” INSIDE: It’s Time to Dust Off Those Contingency Plans .............................5 Forecast Tables ...................................9 Arizona’s Export Base Industries.....................................10 Arizona Economic Indicators .......13 This article examines the role of the high-tech sector in the Arizona economy, using new data and a fresh definition of what constitutes high-tech activity. Specifically, it discusses: 1) the magnitude of Arizona’s high-tech industry, 2) the definition of high-tech industries, 3) the wage structure of high-tech industries compared to that of the state’s overall industries, 4) the fastest growing high-tech industries, 5) the high-tech industries with the largest employment concentration, and 6) the major companies which comprise the hightech industries that have the highest employment concentration. How important is high-tech in the Arizona economy? In 2004, there were 14,140 high-tech establishments in Arizona. This represented 11% of the total number of establishments in Arizona. These include firms in service and information sectors as well as manufacturing. The state’s 839 high-tech manufacturing firms accounted for only 1% of the total firms in Arizona, but they comprised 18% of the state’s total manufacturing firms. The high-tech sector provided 251,277 jobs in Arizona in 2004. 11% of all Arizona workers were employed in high-tech industries. The high-tech manufacturing sector employed 3% of all workers in Arizona, but it represented a substantial share of the state’s total manufacturing sector. The proportion of Arizona manufacturing employment in high-tech industries was 44% of total manufacturing employment, even though hightech firms accounted for only 18% of the total number of firms engaged in manufacturing. This situation is explained by the fact that that the average number of employees in high-tech manufacturing was 2.5 times the number in a typical manufacturing company. Arizona’s high-tech industries contribute a massive amount of earnings relative to other industries. In 2004, the Arizona high-tech sector generated over $16 billion in total wages or 19% of the State’s total wages. This huge amount of earnings results from the fact that high-tech firms tend to be both larger than other firms and pay significantly higher wages than firms in other sectors. The total wages in the high-tech www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 2 0 0 6 • S U M M E R I S S U E manufacturing sector represent a whopping 61% of all the wages paid in the Arizona manufacturing sector. What is high-tech? How does one determine which industries are high-tech? Various studies have used a number of In 2004, methods to do so, and each method produces different lists of there were industries. Criteria commonly used 14,140 include the intensity of technologyoriented workers; the proportion of high-tech R&D employment; whether establish“advanced-technology” products are produced; and the use of high-tech ments production methods and processes. employing In a study published last summer2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics 251,277 identified some 46 four-digit NAICS workers and industries3 as high tech, based on employment of technologypaying over oriented workers. Included are $16 billion in occupations such as computer and mathematical scientists; total wages. engineers; drafters, engineering and mapping technicians; life scientists; physical scientists; life, physical and social science technicians; computer and information systems managers; engineering managers; and natural science managers. An industry is considered high-tech if “employment in technology-oriented occupations accounted for a proportion of that industry’s total employment that is at least twice the 4.9 % average for all industries.” Within this definition, three levels are identified: Level I includes 14 industries with intensity at least 5 times the average; Level II includes 12 industries with intensity between 3.0 and 4.9 times; and Level III includes 20 industries with a proportion between 2.0 and 2.9 times the average. See www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu and click on “High Tech 46” for a table listing all 46 industries. The Arizona data used for this article come from annual data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics4. These special tabulations of 4-digit NAICS employment are available annually from 2001-2004 aggregated to the state level. No substate data is tabulated. Quoting from the Bureau of Labor Statistics study, “these high-tech industries are a heterogeneous group in terms of production processes and output, covering a broad range of industries. Level I includes the computer and electronic products, aerospace, and pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industries; the computer software, Internet, and data processing industries in the information sector; and three professional, scientific, and technical services industries. Levels I, II, and III combined cover all four-digit industries within computer and electronic products manufacturing (NAICS 334), as well as merchant wholesalers of professional and commercial equipment and supplies (a category that encompasses wholesalers of computers, software, and some electronic instruments). Levels I, II, and III combined also include all but one of the telecommunications industries within the information sector, four machinery-manufacturing industries, and all but one industry in chemical manufacturing. Finally (but not exhausting the list), included as well are (1) four industries within professional, scientific and technical services; (2) the Federal Government except the Postal Service; (3) all three pipeline industries in NAICS 486; and (4) management of companies and enterprises, a category with no equivalent in the SIC. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are not on the list of high-tech industries, because they are not identified as industries in the NAICS. Most biotech companies are located in scientific R&D services or pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industries, according to a recent Commerce Department survey. No similar information has 2. Exhibit 1 High Tech Industries With Highest Wages In Arizona Industry 2004 Annual Wage Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing $82,292 Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing $80,057 Navigational, measuring, electro medical, and control instrument manufacturing $76,147 Professional and commercial equipment and supplies, merchant wholesalers $75,022 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution $72,838 Pipeline transportation of natural gas $71,099 Pipeline transportation of crude oil $71,077 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing $70,694 Source: Annual Employment and Wages Annual Averages, BLS Bulletin 2569 been found regarding nanotechnology.” Many of the above “technology-oriented-occupation intensive industries” are also R&D intensive, and many are identified as producing high-tech products. BLS researchers note the lack of data for preventing incorporation of other input or output measures into the definition. How do high-tech wages compare to other sectors? The wage structure in the Arizona high-tech industries is significantly higher than that of most other sectors of the state’s economy. The 2004 average annual wage in Arizona for all industries was $36,646. The average annual wage for hightech industries was $63,687 or 74% higher than the state-wide average. The average annual wage for high-tech manufacturing was even higher. At $72,669, the Arizona high-tech manufacturing wage was almost double the average annual wage rate for Arizona. The average annual wage rate for high-tech industries and high-tech manufacturing industries grew 4% over the period 2001 to 2004. It is interesting to note that the annual wage rate continued to display solid growth even though employment fell over the same period. The highest wage high-tech industries in Arizona are shown in Exhibit 1. Which high-tech industries are growing the fastest? Exhibit 2 shows the Arizona high-tech industries with the highest rate of employment growth over the period 2001 to 2004. Interestingly, communications-related industries were the fastest growing segments over the past several years. However, the top three fastestgrowing industries together accounted for less than 500 jobs. Of the top 12 fastest growing hightech industries, only Navigational Equipment with 12,083 employees and Management, Scientific, and Consulting Services with 16,839 employees had more than 1,000 total employees. Ironically, Arizona’s two largest high-tech industries— Aerospace and Semiconductors — declined at annual average rates of 4% and 13%, respectively, over the period 2001 to 2004. Does Arizona have a high concentration in any high-tech sectors? Arizona has employment concentrations that exceed the US average in several industries, as Many of the “technology-oriented-occupation intensive industries” are also R&D intensive, and many are identified as producing high-tech products. Exhibit 2 High Tech Employment Growth In Arizona Industry Satellite telecommunications Internet publishing and broadcasting Other telecommunications Forest nursery and gathering forest product Other transportation equipment manufacturing Navigational, measuring, electro medical, and control instrument manufacturing Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing Other pipeline transportation Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing Electrical equipment manufacturing Other general- purpose machinery manufacturing Management, scientific, and technical consulting services % change 2001-2004 25.8% 14.9% 13.6% 10.5% 10.3% 9.3% 6.3% 5.8% 5.6% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5% Source: Annual Employment and Wages Annual Averages, BLS Bulletin 2569 Exhibit 3 High Tech Industries With Concentration In Arizona Industry 2004 Location Quotient Aerospace product and parts manufacturing 3.30 Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing 3.27 Navigational, measuring, electro medical, and control instrument manufacturing 1.65 Internet service providers and web search portals 1.50 Other pipeline transportation 1.43 Facilities support services 1.37 Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 1.23 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 1.14 Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance 1.10 Wireless telecommunication carriers ( except satellite) 1.09 Federal Government, excluding Postal Service 1.09 Wired telecommunication carriers 1.07 Data processing, hosting, and related services 1.06 Professional and commercial equipment and supplies, merchant wholesalers 1.05 Architectural, engineering, and related services 1.04 Source: Annual Employment and Wages Annual Averages, BLS Bulletin 2569 measured by location quotients. A location quotient is calculated for each industry by dividing the ratio of regional employment in that industry to total regional employment by the corresponding ratio for the US. If the location quotient is higher than one, then there is a higher than average concentration of that industry in the region than in the nation. Exhibit 3 shows the high-tech industries that had location quotients greater than one in 2004. Only two industries, Aerospace and Semiconductors, have location quotients that indicate extremely highly concentrations in Arizona. Both industries have employment concentrations that are more than three times that for the nation as a whole. Two other industries, Instrument Manufacturing and Internet Services, had location quotients greater than 1.5. What major companies comprise the Aerospace, Semiconductor, and Instruments manufacturing sectors? The industries with the largest employment concentrations in Arizona include a number of well known and highly respected companies. The Aerospace industry includes such notable companies as Raytheon Missile Systems, Honeywell Aerospace, Bombardier Aerospace, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Orbital Sciences, Sargent Controls & Aerospace, and Dunn Air. The Semiconductor industry includes Intel, Motorola, Texas Instruments, Freescale Semiconductor, Microchip Technology, and ON Semiconductor. The Instruments Manufacturing industry features Honeywell, General Dynamics, Medtronic Microelectronic Center, and Universal Avionics Systems. A high regional concentration in one or two major industries can at times be either a blessing or a curse. When an industry is experiencing a strong market, it is a source of economic growth, employment, tax revenue, and wealth generation The average annual wage for high-tech industries was $63,687 or 74% higher than the state-wide average. 3. for the region. However, when the market is weak, regional economic growth slows, unemployment rises, housing markets soften, etc. For example, the level of employment in the Arizona semiconductor industry declined from 40,605 in 2001 to 26,738 in 2004 in response to weakened world markets in semiconductors. This loss of semiconductor employment slowed the potential rate of growth in the Arizona economy during the early part of this decade. Recent trends Overinvestment in high technology in general and Internet related initiatives in particular during the late 1990s led to unprecedented declines during the first half of this decade. From 2001 to 2004, the number of Arizona high-tech firms grew at a modest 1% annual average rate. However, the number of Arizona high-tech manufacturing firms declined at a 2% annual average rate, slightly slower than the US sector as a whole. Moreover, the number of Arizona employees in high-tech industries has been declining at a 2% average annual rate since 2001. The rate of decline has been even more pronounced in the high-tech manufacturing sector. Arizona’s hightech industries have declined at a 6% annual average rate versus a 4% rate for the state’s overall manufacturing sector. The rate of decline in Arizona’s manufacturing sector is similar to that of the United States, where total manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing employment have been falling at 5% and 6% annual average rates, respectively, over the period 2001 to 2004. In a research report by Tom Rex5, Arizona’s high-tech employment rose 41% between 1990 and 2001, slightly faster than the 33% gain nationwide. During that period, high-tech’s share of total employment declined from 9.1% in 1990 to 8.3% in 2001, while the nationwide share increased. The high-tech definition used by Rex was based on SIC codes and used County Business Pattern data, and therefore is not directly comparable to our NAICS-based analysis. Overall wages in the high-tech sector grew at a modest 2% annual average rate between 2001 and 2004. US high-tech wages were flat over the same period. Wages in the Arizona high-tech manufacturing sector declined at a 2% average annual rate, identical to the decline in the US sector. However, the growth in the high-tech manufacturing sector held up rather well as compared to that of the US manufacturing sector in general, which declined at an average annual rate of 10% over the period 2001 to 2004. 1 DeVol, Ross and Rob Koepp, “State Technology and Science Index: Enduring Lessons for the Intangible Economy,” Milken Institute, March 2004. 2 Hecker, Daniel E. “High-technology employment: a NAICSbased update,” Monthly Labor Review, July 2005, p 57-72 3 NAICS is the North American Industrial Classification System adopted in the late 1990s to replace the SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) coding system. 4 Employment and Wages Annual Averages, BLS Bulletin 2569. 5 Rex, Tom, “High-Technology Activities in Arizona,” Center for Business Research, L. William Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, July 14, 2003. High-tech really does power Arizona’s economy The Arizona economy has benefited greatly from the presence of high tech, particularly the Semiconductor and Aerospace industries. These industrial sectors have been major sources of employment, income, and wealth generation in Arizona. A vigorous high-tech industrial sector is a key to Arizona’s economic development strategy. At the present time, the continued health of the Arizona economy depends, in large part, on the strength of world markets for semiconductors, commercial aircraft, and defense. However, in the future, new high-tech industries such as bioindustries, pharmaceuticals, nanotechnologies, optics, telecommunications, software development, and unidentified industries of the future not yet incubated, will provide high incomes, jobs, wealth, and a more diversified economy that is less susceptible to industryspecific business cycles. ■ Overinvestment in high technology in general and Internet related initiatives in particular during the late 1990s led to unprecedented declines during the first half of this decade. Co-author William P. Patton, Ph.D., is Chief Economist for Tucson Regional Economic Opportunities (TREO), a loaned executive from Tucson Electric Power Company. Only two industries, Aerospace and Semiconductors, have location quotients that indicate extremely highly concentrations in Arizona. 4. It’s Time To Dust Off Those Contingency Plans By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director June 1, 2006 Arizona’s galloping economy was even stronger last year than originally reported, according to recent revisions to aggregate measures of personal income and employment. Moreover, there is little evidence of slowing as yet, but we continue to forecast slowing as the year progresses. Higher interest rates, a squeeze on consumer finances, and softening housing markets will soon slow the economy to a trot. EXHIBIT 1 Job Growth Is Much Stronger Nonfarm Jobs, AZ % change year ago The current crop of data shows that Arizona’s population grew by 3.4% last year (roughly 200,000 net new residents) to push the total over six million. Arizona’s economy created 130,000 new jobs (net). Retail sales (including food, gasoline, restaurant and bars, and the narrowly-defined retail category) surged by 13.5%! And, Arizona’s homebuilding industry added nearly 86,000 new housing units – an alltime record high. With these outsized gains, 2005 goes into the record books as the largest surge of economic activity in Arizona history. Personal income estimates for 2005 were recently boosted upward in one of the largest revisions in recent memory. Throughout the past year, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was reporting income growth in the low 8% range. The new estimates show growth of 9.3% for the whole year, including an increase of over 10% (y/y) in last year’s third quarter. Only Nevada, which is less than half the size of Arizona, reported stronger personal income growth during 2005. Employment Revisions Largest in a Decade As we expected, the Arizona Department of Economic Security recently revised employment estimates upward by a sizeable amount. As shown in Exhibit 1, job growth for 2005 was raised significantly and now shows a 5.3% gain (annual average for the whole year) compared to a little over 4% previously reported. The revision was the largest in a decade – recorded during the mid-1990s boom. Over 35,000 additional jobs were found in the process. Estimates for 2005 may be revised upward again next year, just as 2004 was this time (another 7,700 jobs were found for 2004). Exhibit 2 shows a history of revisions back to 1983. Just as we expected, most of the newly-found jobs were in the professional and business services category (18,600). Within this category, administrative and support, and waste services accounted for 16,000. Subcomponents employment services added 5,800 and business support services added 5,000. Professional and technical services jobs were boosted by 2,600. 2005 goes into the record books as the largest surge of economic activity in Arizona history. 5. Of significance was the upward revision of 5,100 jobs in the manufacturing sector. Subcategories computer and electronics, fabricated metals, and nondurables all received significant boosts. The revisions clearly show that manufacturing is on an upward trajectory and that more than 10,000 jobs have been added since bottoming in September of 2003. The biggest mystery contained in the revisions is the reduction of some 5,000 government workers. Half of these are in local education (public K-12) and the other half in state education (universities and community colleges). In fact, the revised counts show that some 1,600 state education jobs vanished during 2005. This doesn’t appear to be the result of a shift to private sector education, as that category also was revised downward by 1,400. It’s hard to imagine that with the growing number of students, education jobs are disappearing. Rather, it suggests that DES is increasingly challenged to accurately count public sector employment. This problem is especially acute in metro Tucson, where some 4,500 education jobs abruptly disappeared during 2005. These losses, coupled with downward revisions in some private sectors (likely resulting from companies’ failure to provide workforce counts by county) dropped overall job growth in metro Tucson from near 4% in the preliminary estimates to less than 2%. This should be viewed as a discontinuity in the reported numbers, rather than a reflection of reality, especially since growth rates for the first quarter 2006 bounced back to over 4%. EXHIBIT 2 Revisions are the Largest in a Decade History of Revisions to Nonfarm Job Estimates, AZ 000s EXHIBIT 4 Apartment Vacancies Are Plunging % Apartment Vacancy Rates (Source: Phoenix Metro Housing Study, ASU; Metropolitan Land Use Study, UA) Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector Education Surges in Arizona Arizona is the undisputed national leader in alternative approaches to education. A little over a decade ago, in an effort to introduce competition into public education, Arizona enabled the formation of charter schools. Since then, employment in educational services (private-sector initiatives) has grown at double-digit annual rates, while state and local education (public schools) employment has grown by less than 2% – far slower than growth in Arizona’s population. During this period, educational services employment as a percent of the total (private plus public) has grown from 9% in 1994 to over 18% today (Exhibit 3). The educational services category was introduced with NAICS (North American Industry Classification System). Manufacturing is on an upward trajectory and more than 10,000 jobs have been added since bottoming in September of 2003. 6. EXHIBIT 3 Private Sector Education Has Grown Dramatically Private Sector Share of Education Jobs, AZ % educational services as % of private plus public education It includes charter schools (which accounted for nearly 9% of K-12 enrollment in 2005) as well as private colleges, parochial schools, trade schools, learning centers, etc. Stateassisted universities and community colleges are counted in the public education category. Our approach to forecasting education jobs is to first model the total and then to model market shares. The total is successfully modeled using (a proxy for) the state’s population age 5-21. Private sector’s share is expected to continue to increase to nearly 25% during the next decade. This two-step approach is used in both state-wide and metro Phoenix models. Unfortunately, we are unable to do so in the metro Tucson model because the educational services category is not reported separately, but rather is included in the aggregate educational and health services category. Real Estate Update EXHIBIT 5 MLS Sales Returning To Normal % Existing Home Sales as Percent of Population (Source: AZ Regional MLS; Tucson Association of Realtors) Housing markets continue to adjust to fundamentals, now that the manic behavior of the past couple years has evaporated. New construction, as measured by permit activity, is moving to lower levels, led by single family permits. Multifamily permitting by contrast is moving higher, reflecting increased demand for rental properties and plunging inventories due to conversions of apartments to condos. Apartment vacancy rates in the Phoenix area have plunged in recent months to less than 4%—the lowest in a decade. Two years ago, vacancies were running in the 9-10% range (Exhibit 4). This should quickly lead to higher rents, more apartment construction and some of the recently-turnedcondo projects converting back to apartments. The pace of resale housing on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) has dropped off considerably and is running 30% lower than a year ago in the metro Phoenix area. A similar pullback is seen in metro Tucson. Although the declines are considerable, this simply reflects a return to normal from frenzied levels. As seen in Exhibit 5, when expressed as a percentage of population, sales are back to “trend line.” Normally, MLS sales over a 12-month period as a percent of population range between 1.5% and 2.25%. While residential markets are returning to normal, commercial markets are hot in both metro areas. Declining vacancy rates and increasing rents have spurred construction Housing markets continue to adjust to fundamentals, now that the manic behavior of the past couple years has evaporated. 7. to the highest levels in several years. In the metro Phoenix area, 3.4 million square feet of office space, 6.9 million square feet of industrial, and nearly 6.0 million square feet of retail space was under construction during the first quarter, according to CB Richard Ellis. They note that “it is increasingly difficult . . . to find industrial space . . . due to the limited supply of product.” Commercial construction activity will help take up the slack as homebuilding “right-sizes” in the months ahead. EXHIBIT 6 Possible Outcomes For Job Growth Nonfarm Employment, AZ % change year ago The Outlook Economic activity remains robust, but inflation pressures are building. Commodity prices stand at decade-highs, oil prices are stuck near $70 per barrel, and higher energy prices are driving up prices throughout the economy. Monetary policy is likely to move from neutral to restrictive in coming months, and that will restrain debt-ridden households and send housing markets lower. This current business cycle, which is in its fifth year of expansion, is due for a major slowdown. That doesn’t mean recession, just a slower pace. The best bet is for a “growth recession” during the next two years. A growth recession is defined as an economy that continues to grow but not fast enough to prevent unemployment from rising. Consumer confidence statewide jumped during the first quarter and now stands at the highest readings in more than five years, prior to the start of the 2001 recession. So far, gasoline prices over $3.00 per gallon have had little effect on Arizonans’ confidence, and they continue to spend, but that will change in coming months. We expect sales gains to drop back into the 7.5 to 8.5% range this year and as low as 5% in 2007. See forecast table page 9. Job creation in Arizona will lose momentum rapidly in the second half but finish the year with an average gain of nearly 5%. Next year, job growth will be cut in half. Construction jobs, which accounted for one-fourth of total job growth in recent years, are expected to level off or decline modestly. In this base-case scenario, the unemployment rate will move upward to 5% by the end of next year. Population growth is expected to recede to under 3% and personal income will slow to a low-sixes percent gain. Residential permits will decline (a very modest) 6-7% both this year and next. Alternatively, the slowdown could be worse and the economy could actually shrink for a quarter or two. This would result if inflation is worse, interest rates move even higher, and the soft landing in housing turns into a collapse. A recession similar to the 1990-91 or 2001 recessions would result. Both were mild and short and saw Arizona’s job growth dip slightly below zero. The economy could be better than in our base scenario. Stronger productivity growth, lower inflation, stronger homebuilding, and stronger business investment could keep job growth in the 4% to 5% range. This scenario compares to the late 1990s when it seemed that the good times would last forever. The alternative paths for job growth are shown in Exhibit 6. In any case, the national and Arizona economies are due for a significant slowdown. It’s time to dust off those contingency plans. ■ This current business cycle, which is in its fifth year of expansion, is due for a major slowdown. 8. F O R E C A S T Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change T A B L E S 2005 180,002.5 9.4 40,067 5.2 75,055.9 13.5 6,045.0 3.4 85,809 0.2 2,512.1 5.5 408.0 8.2 2,104.3 5.0 488.0 5.5 372.3 10.0 252.7 4.5 405.9 1.6 2006 196,990.4 9.4 41,887 4.5 80,936.1 7.8 6,245.3 3.3 80,356 -6.4 2,636.2 4.9 423.3 3.8 2,213.1 5.2 510.6 4.6 408.2 9.6 263.3 4.2 415.5 2.4 2007 209,146.8 6.2 43,474 3.8 85,059.8 5.1 6,429.0 2.9 74,804 -6.9 2,701.6 2.5 420.8 -0.6 2,281.0 3.1 521.5 2.1 422.5 3.5 268.6 2.0 424.9 2.3 2008 221,717.1 6.0 45,110 3.8 88,380.3 3.9 6,617.7 2.9 76,070 1.7 2,763.3 2.3 424.3 0.8 2,339.1 2.5 528.3 1.3 432.9 2.5 273.6 1.9 433.0 1.9 2009 238,263.8 7.5 47,007 4.2 92,961.8 5.2 6,816.7 3.0 80,228 5.5 2,851.3 3.2 433.7 2.2 2,417.8 3.4 542.3 2.7 451.5 4.3 281.4 2.9 442.8 2.3 2010 257,344.6 8.0 49,037 4.3 98,401.3 5.9 7,028.2 3.1 85,165 6.2 2,951.2 3.5 446.7 3.0 2,504.7 3.6 560.6 3.4 473.0 4.8 289.9 3.0 453.8 2.5 2011 277,081.6 7.7 51,107 4.2 104,191.6 5.9 7,246.9 3.1 88,069 3.4 3,048.3 3.3 461.4 3.3 2,587.1 3.3 578.0 3.1 494.7 4.6 297.3 2.5 463.7 2.2 126,475.9 9.4 46,126 4.5 52,025.1 14.7 3,895.2 3.7 63,629 16.0 1,780.6 5.8 294.1 6.7 1,486.7 5.6 359.5 5.5 297.9 8.8 170.3 5.2 226.0 2.4 138,301.1 9.3 48,246 4.6 56,316.9 8.2 4,033.0 3.5 59,077 -7.2 1,871.3 5.1 303.1 3.1 1,568.2 5.5 375.6 4.5 325.6 9.3 177.8 4.4 231.7 2.5 149,113.5 7.8 50,421 4.5 59,306.2 5.3 4,155.8 3.0 54,611 -7.6 1,930.4 3.2 298.5 -1.5 1,631.9 4.1 387.3 3.1 343.6 5.5 182.6 2.7 238.7 3.1 160,429.8 7.6 52,674 4.5 62,538.9 5.5 4,290.0 3.2 51,870 -5.0 1,986.8 2.9 300.4 0.6 1,686.4 3.3 398.1 2.8 351.9 2.4 187.6 2.8 245.7 2.9 173,833.0 8.4 55,077 4.6 66,830.1 6.9 4,433.8 3.4 55,550 7.1 2,058.3 3.6 306.3 2.0 1,752.1 3.9 411.2 3.3 365.1 3.7 194.6 3.7 253.9 3.3 188,747.3 8.6 57,572 4.5 71,098.6 6.4 4,585.1 3.4 58,464 5.2 2,138.9 3.9 316.0 3.2 1,823.0 4.0 426.1 3.6 381.2 4.4 201.4 3.5 263.1 3.7 203,561.1 7.8 60,084 4.4 75,064.0 5.6 4,737.7 3.3 58,972 0.9 2,213.3 3.5 325.0 2.8 1,888.4 3.6 440.0 3.3 398.6 4.6 206.8 2.6 271.5 3.2 26,407.5 6.9 38,477 4.2 10,984.9 10.9 957.6 2.8 11,913 14.4 369.1 2.5 55.5 3.3 313.6 2.4 59.2 2.2 45.9 5.7 40.9 4.5 78.9 -1.3 28,348.4 7.4 39,844 3.6 11,749.3 7.0 986.2 3.0 11,317 -5.0 383.5 3.9 58.4 5.3 325.0 3.7 60.3 1.9 49.3 7.5 42.9 5.1 80.0 1.4 30,248.2 6.7 41,336 3.7 12,253.8 4.3 1,013.0 2.7 10,584 -6.5 395.2 3.1 60.0 2.6 335.3 3.1 61.7 2.3 53.2 7.9 44.1 2.7 81.2 1.5 31,968.0 5.7 42,843 3.6 12,734.9 3.9 1,037.5 2.4 9,637 -8.9 402.9 1.9 60.3 0.6 342.6 2.2 62.5 1.3 55.2 3.7 44.9 1.8 82.3 1.3 33,867.9 5.9 44,373 3.6 13,228.5 3.9 1,062.0 2.4 9,689 0.5 410.8 2.0 60.9 0.9 349.9 2.1 63.5 1.6 56.7 2.8 45.9 2.2 83.5 1.5 35,879.4 5.9 45,931 3.5 13,751.2 4.0 1,086.5 2.3 9,663 -0.3 418.7 1.9 61.6 1.2 357.1 2.1 64.5 1.5 58.1 2.4 46.8 2.0 84.8 1.5 37,877.0 5.6 47,530 3.5 14,262.9 3.7 1,110.5 2.2 9,461 -2.1 425.9 1.7 62.5 1.4 363.3 1.8 65.2 1.1 59.7 2.8 47.6 1.6 85.6 1.0 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 9. Arizona’s Export Base Industries By Alberta Charney and Valorie Rice Understanding the export base of a state or region is critical to understanding the economic forces that shape that area. Export base industries are those that drive the local economy. By definition, export base industries are those industries that sell their product outside the boundaries of the state or region. Non-export base industries exist to serve the export-base industry and the workers/population in the region. To identify the export industries in a region, “location quotients” are often used. Location quotients are analytical tools that are used to determine which industries are concentrated in a region by comparing each industry’s share of employment in the region to the same measure for the U.S. as a whole. Thus, the location quotient for Arizona for a particular industry, say manufacturing, is the ratio of the manufacturing share of total employment in Arizona to the manufacturing share of total employment in the U.S. If the ratio is greater than 1.0, the industry is of more importance in Arizona than in the U.S. as a whole and is, therefore, likely to be an exporting industry. The idea behind a location quotient is that if an industry share is larger in a region than in the U.S., then that industry is concentrated in the region and it must, at least in part, be producing for persons/businesses outside the region. While not a perfect method of identifying export-base industries, the location quotient is a useful tool. Table 1 contains the location quotients for Arizona and Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Yuma counties. Data for Arizona’s other counties is available from www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/ 10. Location Quotients and NAICS Detail Construction NAICS 23 Location quotients can be computed at any level of industry detail. The sectors in Table 1 are the aggregated 2-digit industry groups, as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The table was assembled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website. It is important to note that the location quotients in Table 1, as calculated from BLS data, use only private sector employment statistics. Thus, “Educational services” only represents private education, not public education. Similarly, the location quotient for “Utilities” only compares private utility companies in an Arizona region with private utility companies in the U.S. as a whole. Publicly-owned utility companies (public water companies and the Salt River Project) are excluded. Not all 2-digit sectors presented in the table will be discussed. The primary purpose of this article is to familiarize readers with location quotients and their interpretations. Most of the discussion in this short article relates to the 2-digit location quotients in Table 1, but some of the discussion is based on information obtained from location quotients calculated from 3-digit NAICS or highly detailed NAICS employment data. Sometimes a 2-digit industry has a location quotient less than 1, but examination of more detailed NAICS data reveal industry subcategories that are strongly concentrated. There is insufficient room in this publication to publish the 3-digit location quotient table or the highly detailed table that contains location quotients for 4-, 5-, and sometimes 6-digit NAICS classifications. These tables are available on our website at www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu and provide location quotients for more detailed economic sectors. In addition to the location quotients, tables containing the industrial breakdown of employment, as a percentage of total employment, are also available on the website for the U.S., Arizona, and its counties. Construction has location quotients higher than 1 for the state (1.52) and all counties, except for Graham, La Paz, and Santa Cruz. Construction is discussed first in this article because, although many of the location quotients are greater than 1, construction usually is not an export-base industry. Construction represents an addition to capital stock (homes, office buildings, commercial facilities, and roads) and a location greater than 1 is related to the strong growth in the state rather than it being an indicator of an exporting industry. Certain portions of construction can be considered exporting, such as when a construction project is marketed to attract out-of-area people, such as retirees. There is no way of telling from the BLS data what portion of construction in Arizona or it’s counties is dedicated to that type of construction. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting NAICS 11 Statewide, this classification has a location quotient of 1.38, indicating that the state is a net exporter. The concentration of agriculture is extremely high in Yuma and La Paz counties (location quotients of 28.9 and 18, respectively). Both of these counties are involved primarily in crop production (as opposed to animal production or forestry). Graham County and, to a lesser extent, Pinal and Cochise Counties are also crop product exporters (Note that although Graham County’s value is ND in the aggregate NAICS 11 sector, a subgroup, crop production, has a location quotient of 27.56.) Animal production is important in Cochise, Gila, Mohave, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma. Forestry and logging are concentrated in Apache and Navajo Counties. Agriculture and forestry support activities are very important in many of Arizona’s counties, but especially strong in La Paz and Yuma Counties. Tables available on our website at www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/azeconomy/ provide location quotients for more detailed economic sectors. Table 1 2004 Industry Location Quotients for Selected Counties Industry (by NAICS code) Base Industry: Total, all industries 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transportation & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance and insurance 53 Real estate & rental and leasing 54 Professional & technical services 55 Management of companies & enterprises 56 Administrative & waste services 61 Educational services 62 Health care & social assistance 71 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 72 Accommodation & food services 81 Other services, excl. public admin 99 Unclassified Arizona 1.00 1.38 0.87 1.11 1.52 0.68 0.93 1.05 0.89 0.85 1.12 1.20 0.88 0.73 1.44 0.82 0.87 0.89 1.09 0.83 0.94 Coconino 1.00 0.20 0.88 0.44 1.18 0.58 0.31 1.22 0.93 0.39 0.38 1.05 0.49 0.13 0.69 0.47 1.19 2.19 2.59 0.84 0.33 Maricopa 1.00 0.54 0.17 1.04 1.54 0.69 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.86 1.34 1.25 0.95 0.87 1.60 0.86 0.78 0.85 0.99 0.80 0.76 Pima 1.00 0.21 0.99 1.34 1.37 0.78 0.56 1.08 0.58 0.96 0.66 1.29 0.90 0.48 1.29 0.68 1.21 1.11 1.24 1.03 0.59 Yuma 1.00 28.90 0.09 0.69 1.37 0.44 0.61 0.99 0.56 0.78 0.28 0.71 0.31 0.15 0.63 0.29 0.84 0.26 0.96 0.57 0.65 Source: Assembled by Economic & Business Research Center from Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages, www.bls.gov/CEW Mining NAICS 21 Utilities NAICS 22 Manufacturing NAICS 31-33 The state as a whole is not a net exporter of mining products. However, two counties, Navajo and Yavapai, have location quotients for mining substantially greater than 1 (that is, 9.48 and 5.04, respectively). In Navajo, the mining is primarily coal, with some sand and gravel excavation; in Yavapai, most of the mining is stone quarrying. This category includes power generation and supply, natural gas distribution, and water, sewage, and other systems. Apache County has a location quotient of 7 because of the electricity plant in Springerville. Apache, Gila, Mohave, Pima, and Pinal’s location quotients are likely over 1 because of water and irrigation systems, rather than power generation. Unfortunately, manufacturing in Arizona and all its counties have location quotients that are substantially less than 1.0, indicating that Arizona’s manufacturing base is substantially smaller, as a percent of total employment, than that in the U.S. Arizona’s location quotient for manufacturing is only 0.68 and the highest manufacturing location quotient for any county is 0.80 for Pinal County. Arizona’s manufacturing base is substantially smaller than that in the U.S. 11. Despite the very low location quotients for manufacturing in the state, there is one subcategory of manufacturing that stands out. The subcategory Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (NAICS 334) has a location quotient of 1.84. This subcategory includes printed circuit boards, electronic connectors, and electronic instruments. Thus, while manufacturing is of less importance in Arizona than it is in the U.S. as a whole, there is strong concentration within this subcategory. Not surprising, this subcategory is mostly concentrated in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties. There are a few other manufacturing sectors that are important in certain counties. Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing (NAICS 327), which consists of primarily of cement, concrete products, tiles and brick production, has location quotients greater than 1 in Cochise, Graham, Mohave, Pinal, and Yavapai Counties. Wood product manufacturing (NAICS 321) is important in Mohave, Navajo, and Pinal Counties and to a lesser extent in Yuma County. Furniture and related product manufacturing (NAICS 337) is concentrated in Mohave, Pinal, and Yavapai. Wholesale Trade NAICS 42 Statewide, wholesale trade is not more concentrated than in the U.S. However, it is highly concentrated in Santa Cruz County (3.21 location quotient) primarily because of large numbers of fruit and vegetable wholesalers of Mexican produce. There is some Maquiladorarelated wholesaling in Santa Cruz County, as well. Wholesaling is slightly more concentrated in Maricopa County (1.04) than the U.S., primarily because Maricopa is the largest city in the state and serves as a distribution center for the rest of the state. 12. Transportation and Warehousing NAICS 48-49 Santa Cruz County has a location quotient of 2.86 for this category, which is directly related to the wholesale trade activity in that county. Administrative and Waste Services NAICS 56 Private administrative and waste service employment is concentrated in the metropolitan areas of Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal Counties. It should be noted that these industries provide services for the local population and are not, therefore, export-base industries. Rather, administrative and waste services tend to be more concentrated in heavily populated areas and, in Arizona, these services are more likely to be privatized than in other parts of the U.S. Education Services NAICS 61 Private educational services are not more concentrated in Arizona than the U.S. as a whole, given the location quotient of 0.82. However, education services are more concentrated in Apache County (location quotient of 4.68), Navajo County (1.99), and Yavapai County (1.7). In Yavapai County, the location quotient is believed to be due to a very large aeronautical school and substantially more charter schools than the rest of the state. Almost half of all elementary and secondary schools are charter schools in Yavapai County, compared to 30 percent statewide. Recall that the BLS figures used to calculate the location quotients only include employment in privately owned enterprises and charter schools are privatelyowned publicly-funded schools. The higher location quotients for Apache and Navajo Counties are due to the relatively high portion of the population under the age of 18, rather than a strong presence of charter schools. In both of these counties, the portion of the population under 18 is over 35.4 percent, which is high when compared to 26.6% for Arizona as a whole. High location quotients for primary and secondary educational services do not represent an export-base activity because they support the local population. The aeronautical school in Yavapai County, however, does represent an export-base industry for that county. Accommodation and Food Services NAICS 72 Arizona is a tourist destination, as indicated by the 1.09 location quotient for accommodation and food services. This activity is more concentrated in all Arizona counties than the U.S. as a whole, except in Maricopa and Yuma Counties. Not surprisingly, Coconino County has the highest location quotient (2.59) due to visitors to the Grand Canyon. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation NAICS 71 The location quotient for this category is also the highest for Coconino County (2.19), reflective of the tourism at the Grand Canyon. Pima County’s location quotient (1.11) is due to relatively high levels of performing arts, museums, and golf courses. A combination of casinos (in Payson and Globe) and marinas near Roosevelt Lake account for Gila County’s 1.63 location quotient. Conclusions The economic base of Arizona’s counties varies substantially across counties. Location quotients, by industry, vary across counties and change with the level of NAICS detail used to calculate them. Location quotients are only a tool designed to assist in identifying export-base industries. Whether or not an industry with a location quotient over 1 is an export-base industry completely depends on for whom industry is producing. If it is producing for Arizona residents or businesses, it is not an export-base industry. ■ Arizona is a tourist destination. Coconino County has the highest location quotient (2.59) due to visitors to the Grand Canyon. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S APACHE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units NAVAJO COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 19,350 17,225 2,125 11.0 19,250 16,900 2,350 12.2 19,825 17,575 2,250 11.3 19,500 17,450 2,050 10.5 19,625 17,600 2,025 10.3 -2.1 -1.8 -4.7 -2.6 -1.9 -1.8 -2.5 -0.5 19,325 6,525 775 18,550 1,950 3,800 12,800 3,150 9,650 19,100 6,475 750 18,350 1,900 3,825 12,625 3,050 9,575 19,275 6,475 700 18,575 1,875 3,900 12,800 3,075 9,725 19,500 6,575 725 18,775 1,925 3,925 12,925 3,100 9,825 19,625 6,625 750 18,875 1,900 3,975 13,000 3,125 9,875 -1.5 -0.7 3.4 -1.7 2.7 -3.0 -1.9 0.8 -2.7 -0.4 2.7 15.5 -0.9 1.3 1.1 -1.9 0.9 -2.8 13,326 7,007 849 5,469 2,533 7,863 904 12,255 6,127 543 5,585 2,439 4,830 607 11,568 6,025 857 4,685 2,033 3,977 613 12,645 5,990 713 5,942 2,479 6,100 646 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8.9 10.4 -9.1 9.9 -3.5 -11.1 -34.5 19.0 23.0 5.3 17.3 -3.2 18.4 4.8 Note: As of Jan 2005, Apache County no longer reports monthly permits. 36,625 33,675 2,950 8.1 36,300 32,950 3,350 9.2 37,050 33,875 3,175 8.6 36,425 33,575 2,850 7.8 36,700 33,975 2,725 7.4 -0.7 -0.1 -7.6 -7.0 -0.5 -0.3 -2.7 -2.3 29,375 18,900 3,350 2,675 675 26,025 5,675 800 550 1,200 3,600 2,700 1,025 10,475 1,650 8,825 28,450 18,425 3,275 2,625 650 25,175 5,500 800 550 1,200 3,575 2,575 950 10,025 1,500 8,525 28,850 18,500 3,300 2,625 675 25,550 5,475 800 575 1,225 3,625 2,550 950 10,350 1,550 8,800 28,925 18,600 3,350 2,650 700 25,575 5,425 800 575 1,225 3,650 2,600 975 10,325 1,600 8,725 29,200 19,000 3,425 2,700 725 25,775 5,450 800 550 1,250 3,650 2,850 1,025 10,200 1,600 8,600 0.5 3.1 -1.4 3.8 -17.1 0.8 0.0 6.7 -4.3 13.6 9.8 1.8 7.9 -4.0 3.2 -5.2 1.5 4.9 2.6 6.7 -9.6 1.4 2.7 11.7 -8.9 13.7 11.5 -1.1 16.9 -4.1 0.5 -5.0 87,371 69,752 6,649 10,969 5,081 23,872 2,150 69,825 53,528 5,324 10,973 4,793 18,229 1,256 73,071 56,367 7,923 8,780 3,809 19,403 2,215 80,823 62,859 6,759 11,205 4,674 15,340 1,782 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14.7 20.0 17.8 -9.0 -20.1 23.3 -11.2 11.6 11.0 15.5 12.3 -7.3 34.7 8.7 29 27 50 46 39 39 57 55 35 35 -30.0 -30.0 28.6 34.4 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 13. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S GRAHAM COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting COCONINO COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 12,200 11,450 750 6.1 12,275 11,400 875 7.1 12,525 11,725 800 6.4 12,625 11,900 725 5.7 12,950 12,225 725 5.6 4.6 5.6 -9.4 -13.4 3.1 3.4 -2.0 -4.9 7,550 4,975 600 6,950 1,600 2,775 2,575 325 2,250 7,425 4,925 575 6,850 1,650 2,700 2,500 325 2,175 7,600 5,025 575 7,025 1,700 2,750 2,575 325 2,250 7,825 5,150 600 7,225 1,800 2,750 2,675 325 2,350 7,950 5,275 650 7,300 1,800 2,825 2,675 325 2,350 6.0 9.3 13.0 5.4 24.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 7.0 7.9 3.9 10.2 5.0 -0.8 3.9 -1.5 22,651 19,005 1,725 1,922 890 4,137 17,888 14,359 1,635 1,895 827 3,980 20,689 16,586 2,140 1,963 851 3,193 22,295 18,343 1,889 2,063 861 3,740 ... ... ... ... ... ... 23.1 26.3 20.0 1.9 -10.5 45.2 20.1 21.3 20.8 10.9 -8.3 34.6 67,000 63,600 3,400 5.1 66,400 62,300 4,100 6.2 68,200 64,500 3,700 5.4 68,300 65,100 3,200 4.7 68,800 65,700 3,100 4.5 3.1 3.6 -6.1 -8.9 2.1 2.4 -1.9 -3.9 63,100 43,700 6,600 3,200 3,400 56,500 9,400 500 1,700 3,900 7,400 12,400 1,800 19,400 2,800 16,600 61,600 42,700 6,600 3,100 3,500 55,000 9,100 500 1,700 3,800 7,300 11,900 1,800 18,900 2,600 16,300 62,500 43,000 6,600 3,100 3,500 55,900 9,100 500 1,700 3,900 7,300 12,100 1,800 19,500 2,600 16,900 63,700 44,100 6,700 3,200 3,500 57,000 9,300 500 1,700 4,000 7,400 12,700 1,800 19,600 2,700 16,900 64,500 44,800 6,900 3,300 3,600 57,600 9,200 500 1,700 4,100 7,400 13,100 1,900 19,700 2,700 17,000 4.9 4.7 7.8 3.1 12.5 4.5 -2.1 0.0 0.0 17.1 5.7 5.6 0.0 5.3 -6.9 7.6 4.4 5.4 5.9 3.2 8.7 4.2 -0.7 9.1 1.5 15.3 5.9 7.8 1.4 2.3 -6.9 4.1 135,817 98,156 20,917 16,744 7,755 35,868 10,529 100,738 66,195 18,426 16,118 7,040 27,146 6,785 112,008 72,906 24,816 14,286 6,198 28,923 9,791 125,670 79,856 27,163 18,652 7,781 25,853 14,469 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 3.6 14.8 -2.3 -14.2 13.5 -2.4 9.1 6.6 12.3 16.3 -3.9 23.9 7.4 62 62 67 67 66 66 269 77 129 65 158.0 35.4 88.2 20.4 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. 14. % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S GREENLEE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel* % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 3,475 3,300 175 5.0 3,500 3,300 200 5.7 3,575 3,375 200 5.6 3,575 3,425 150 4.2 3,700 3,525 175 4.7 5.0 6.0 -12.5 -16.6 3.2 3.6 -3.2 -6.1 3,850 3,350 2,725 1,125 275 350 500 50 450 3,825 3,375 2,775 1,050 275 325 450 25 425 3,900 3,425 2,825 1,075 275 325 475 25 450 4,025 3,550 2,950 1,075 275 325 475 25 450 4,100 3,625 3,000 1,100 275 350 475 25 450 10.1 12.4 14.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 -5.0 0.0 -5.3 8.5 11.1 12.5 -0.6 8.8 1.9 -6.8 -5.0 -7.0 8,552 7,821 212 518 240 3,172 477 8,941 8,044 254 643 281 2,423 372 9,140 8,265 235 640 278 2,602 1,096 10,856 9,909 260 687 286 4,746 515 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17.6 17.9 9.9 16.1 1.9 N/A 114.6 9.8 7.8 17.1 39.6 15.0 N/A 44.5 90,500 87,200 3,300 3.6 90,000 85,900 4,100 4.6 92,700 89,100 3,600 3.9 93,600 90,300 3,300 3.5 94,600 91,200 3,400 3.6 5.6 5.9 -2.9 -8.0 4.5 4.7 0.9 -3.4 61,500 50,300 12,000 8,300 3,700 49,500 12,100 600 2,300 5,100 8,600 7,500 2,100 11,200 1,200 10,000 60,500 49,500 11,800 8,200 3,600 48,700 11,800 600 2,300 5,000 8,500 7,400 2,100 11,000 1,200 9,800 61,600 50,000 12,100 8,400 3,700 49,500 11,700 600 2,300 5,000 8,700 7,500 2,100 11,600 1,200 10,400 62,900 51,200 12,500 8,700 3,800 50,400 12,000 600 2,300 5,100 8,900 7,600 2,200 11,700 1,200 10,500 63,800 51,900 12,800 9,000 3,800 51,000 11,900 600 2,300 5,100 9,000 8,000 2,200 11,900 1,300 10,600 7.2 7.2 11.3 13.9 5.6 6.3 5.3 0.0 9.5 10.9 4.7 3.9 10.0 7.2 8.3 7.1 7.1 7.7 10.7 13.4 5.0 6.3 5.4 -8.9 12.6 16.6 5.4 2.9 13.0 4.6 1.4 5.0 198,778 163,621 20,163 14,995 6,945 81,206 6,074 152,834 120,023 17,507 15,304 6,684 57,702 4,751 164,046 124,074 24,618 15,354 6,661 68,651 7,601 175,781 136,503 22,702 16,576 6,915 76,394 9,451 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10.1 11.6 9.3 0.4 -11.8 31.1 6.3 17.3 16.8 18.6 19.5 -1.2 29.1 18.9 251 249 248 248 270 268 350 348 274 268 -11.0 -11.8 10.2 15.9 * Includes Graham County data. YAVAPAI COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 15. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S GILA COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel MOHAVE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 20,250 19,050 1,200 5.9 20,200 18,800 1,400 6.9 20,675 19,400 1,275 6.2 20,100 18,950 1,150 5.7 20,350 19,225 1,125 5.5 -0.6 -0.1 -8.2 -7.6 0.5 0.7 -2.1 -2.5 14,225 9,425 2,125 12,100 2,225 5,075 4,800 450 4,350 13,950 9,250 2,075 11,875 2,150 5,025 4,700 425 4,275 14,175 9,350 2,075 12,100 2,150 5,125 4,825 425 4,400 13,950 9,450 2,100 11,850 2,225 5,125 4,500 425 4,075 14,150 9,400 2,075 12,075 2,200 5,125 4,750 475 4,275 0.4 2.5 -1.2 0.6 1.1 4.6 -3.6 0.0 -3.9 1.9 3.7 -1.7 2.5 2.2 6.7 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 39,402 29,253 4,188 5,962 2,761 9,681 891 30,587 21,175 3,746 5,666 2,475 7,234 675 31,800 22,676 4,247 4,877 2,116 7,779 1,052 35,868 25,125 4,737 6,007 2,506 8,232 1,088 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14.4 19.3 15.5 -2.9 -14.7 42.1 19.5 18.3 19.0 10.5 21.5 1.2 -2.4 21.4 87,700 84,300 3,400 3.9 89,050 84,875 4,175 4.7 89,375 85,725 3,650 4.1 89,050 85,725 3,325 3.7 89,225 85,900 3,325 3.7 2.4 2.5 0.8 -1.6 4.6 4.5 7.4 2.7 53,725 45,850 10,700 7,000 3,700 43,025 12,050 975 2,200 3,975 6,900 6,475 2,575 7,875 525 7,350 53,350 45,475 10,725 7,050 3,675 42,625 11,825 900 2,125 3,975 6,950 6,500 2,475 7,875 500 7,375 53,575 45,600 10,625 6,975 3,650 42,950 11,900 900 2,175 3,850 7,025 6,600 2,525 7,975 500 7,475 54,100 46,050 10,800 7,150 3,650 43,300 12,000 900 2,150 3,775 7,000 6,900 2,525 8,050 500 7,550 54,150 46,275 10,800 7,150 3,650 43,350 11,925 900 2,225 3,875 7,050 6,975 2,525 7,875 500 7,375 3.1 3.6 -4.0 -1.7 -8.2 5.0 6.5 -2.7 4.7 1.3 8.0 8.6 5.2 0.3 -4.8 0.7 6.4 6.7 4.7 6.4 1.6 6.9 7.0 -0.2 8.5 6.8 6.9 8.1 11.9 4.6 1.6 4.8 181,896 143,744 15,895 22,257 10,308 52,682 2,896 158,109 118,769 16,599 22,741 9,932 56,779 2,801 160,993 130,039 11,388 19,567 8,489 63,830 3,946 182,538 138,381 18,351 25,806 10,765 63,117 4,306 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8.9 9.9 2.4 8.5 -4.8 7.1 -9.2 17.2 16.9 8.1 26.0 4.5 19.3 6.7 234 232 265 237 196 192 272 232 335 314 -13.0 -15.4 -8.6 -6.9 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. 16. % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S LA PAZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 7,200 6,725 475 6.6 7,350 6,800 550 7.5 7,400 6,925 475 6.4 7,425 6,975 450 6.1 7,675 7,225 450 5.9 0.3 1.0 -10.0 -10.3 -1.1 -1.4 3.4 4.6 5,225 3,075 475 4,750 1,325 1,275 2,150 225 1,925 5,250 3,100 475 4,775 1,300 1,325 2,150 225 1,925 5,275 3,125 475 4,800 1,300 1,350 2,150 225 1,925 5,425 3,300 550 4,875 1,350 1,400 2,125 225 1,900 5,525 3,375 575 4,950 1,350 1,450 2,150 225 1,925 0.5 8.9 9.5 -0.5 1.9 16.0 -10.4 0.0 -11.5 -1.1 3.0 7.0 -1.8 0.8 3.8 -6.2 2.9 -7.2 18,543 11,136 2,091 5,315 2,462 3,830 409 23,364 13,539 2,832 6,994 3,055 2,431 862 22,667 13,453 2,942 6,272 2,721 3,118 437 20,395 11,787 1,980 6,628 2,765 3,218 785 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -10.4 2.4 -54.7 -3.7 -15.5 162.0 48.8 8.1 9.0 -1.9 10.5 -8.1 54.8 9.9 75,800 66,400 9,400 12.4 75,700 66,900 8,800 11.6 76,400 68,700 7,700 10.1 76,700 69,000 7,700 10.0 77,000 66,900 10,100 13.1 3.6 6.2 -10.6 -13.8 4.6 4.4 6.0 1.3 55,000 40,800 8,700 5,000 3,700 46,300 11,500 1,100 1,500 3,800 6,400 6,200 1,600 14,200 3,300 10,900 55,100 40,900 8,800 5,000 3,800 46,300 11,500 1,100 1,500 3,700 6,300 6,400 1,600 14,200 3,300 10,900 56,400 41,600 9,000 5,100 3,900 47,400 11,700 1,100 1,500 3,800 6,400 6,500 1,600 14,800 3,300 11,500 56,800 41,800 9,100 5,200 3,900 47,700 11,800 1,100 1,500 3,700 6,300 6,700 1,600 15,000 3,300 11,700 54,300 39,600 8,900 5,300 3,600 45,400 10,300 1,100 1,500 3,500 6,200 6,600 1,500 14,700 3,300 11,400 6.7 7.0 17.1 10.4 28.6 4.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 15.8 -6.3 5.8 13.8 3.6 5.7 6.3 7.6 11.8 1.4 5.4 3.2 0.0 1.7 7.7 3.8 18.1 -2.6 4.3 8.9 3.0 185,478 149,264 17,099 19,115 8,853 40,719 3,873 151,071 113,190 17,016 20,864 9,113 33,025 4,440 155,131 117,845 19,073 18,213 7,901 32,154 6,078 166,588 125,168 19,104 22,316 9,309 39,126 5,203 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 3.3 15.1 5.8 -7.1 -0.1 19.9 13.7 11.7 16.4 23.0 1.7 13.1 20.5 168 168 142 142 142 142 159 154 117 112 -46.6 -47.7 -10.0 -4.8 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 17. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S SANTA CRUZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units COCHISE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Mining and Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 16,450 15,225 1,225 7.4 16,275 15,025 1,250 7.7 16,725 15,575 1,150 6.9 16,500 15,500 1,000 6.1 16,625 15,650 975 5.9 5.9 7.2 -11.4 -16.3 4.3 5.1 -3.0 -6.9 14,050 10,775 825 13,225 6,100 3,850 3,275 1,250 2,025 13,875 10,550 800 13,075 5,925 3,825 3,325 1,250 2,075 14,025 10,675 800 13,225 5,925 3,950 3,350 1,250 2,100 14,225 10,875 825 13,400 5,975 4,075 3,350 1,250 2,100 14,300 10,925 850 13,450 6,025 4,050 3,375 1,275 2,100 9.2 12.9 -12.8 10.9 12.6 20.9 -1.5 8.5 -6.7 7.8 11.2 -6.8 9.0 12.7 14.2 -1.6 6.1 -5.7 58,602 47,891 4,543 6,167 2,857 8,950 1,327 33,067 23,732 3,862 5,473 2,390 6,424 1,150 39,812 30,503 4,004 5,305 2,301 9,240 1,423 43,102 33,243 4,163 5,695 2,376 11,143 1,712 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7.7 9.6 14.1 -5.7 -17.2 106.0 22.6 14.2 15.7 13.5 6.7 -11.1 58.3 8.0 30 30 128 128 74 74 42 39 53 51 0.0 2.0 13.3 14.7 55,900 53,300 2,600 4.7 56,500 53,350 3,150 5.6 57,650 54,775 2,875 5.0 56,775 54,175 2,600 4.6 56,900 54,225 2,675 4.7 3.5 3.5 1.9 -1.5 3.6 3.5 5.9 2.1 38,025 25,600 3,650 2,850 800 34,375 6,825 475 1,000 4,350 4,000 4,300 1,000 12,425 5,000 7,425 37,875 25,525 3,575 2,800 775 34,300 6,650 475 975 4,525 4,025 4,325 975 12,350 4,975 7,375 38,250 25,725 3,700 2,825 875 34,550 6,625 450 975 4,625 3,975 4,400 975 12,525 5,025 7,500 38,225 25,700 3,700 2,850 850 34,525 6,675 450 1,000 4,525 3,950 4,425 975 12,525 5,025 7,500 38,275 25,750 3,750 2,925 825 34,525 6,625 425 1,000 4,625 3,950 4,425 950 12,525 5,025 7,500 4.6 5.3 7.1 10.4 -2.9 4.3 6.0 -10.5 5.3 7.6 0.0 9.3 -2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 5.7 5.8 8.4 12.4 -3.1 5.4 2.2 -6.4 5.5 12.3 3.5 8.7 -2.0 5.5 3.8 6.7 99,292 78,775 9,600 10,918 5,057 22,817 2,158 72,345 52,072 8,933 11,340 4,953 21,982 2,694 83,885 63,383 9,557 10,945 4,748 22,551 3,296 87,842 63,961 10,661 13,220 5,515 23,568 3,857 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.6 -2.9 12.5 29.3 13.5 21.0 7.6 8.9 9.0 3.7 13.0 -6.7 21.4 10.7 50 48 60 60 113 111 70 70 63 63 -49.6 -49.6 -16.5 -16.7 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. 18. % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 441.2 422.7 18.5 4.6 438.9 416.5 22.4 4.9 450.0 430.1 19.9 4.4 447.0 429.2 17.8 3.9 449.5 431.3 18.2 4.2 2.8 3.1 -4.2 -8.7 0.6 0.5 2.3 1.5 378.6 1.6 27.1 28.6 4.7 11.4 8.6 43.6 9.4 7.3 17.4 47.8 51.6 5.6 8.0 28.1 14.9 10.2 68.8 44.4 370.9 1.6 26.6 28.6 4.7 11.3 8.4 41.8 8.7 7.2 17.1 46.9 51.6 5.7 8.1 27.9 14.4 10.2 66.1 41.8 376.8 1.6 26.9 28.9 4.7 11.6 8.4 41.7 8.7 7.2 17.3 47.1 52.1 5.9 8.4 28.4 14.6 10.2 69.4 45.1 379.4 1.6 27.3 28.6 4.7 11.4 8.6 42.3 8.8 7.1 17.4 47.6 52.3 6.4 8.5 28.7 14.8 10.2 69.2 44.9 383.4 1.7 27.6 28.7 4.6 11.4 8.6 42.8 8.9 7.0 17.5 48.7 52.6 6.8 8.6 29.4 15.1 10.2 69.2 44.8 4.2 13.3 10.0 2.9 -4.2 2.7 3.6 4.4 0.0 -2.8 9.4 6.8 4.8 21.4 6.2 5.8 1.3 2.0 -0.9 -0.7 2.5 7.2 9.3 0.5 -5.0 0.2 2.7 -0.3 4.6 -4.0 7.3 5.6 5.0 10.4 0.9 5.2 0.3 3.7 -3.1 -4.7 1,156,839 839,207 134,566 116,830 66,237 207,330 24,526 893,043 579,166 131,550 112,254 70,074 164,219 36,354 921,373 597,513 132,683 124,668 66,509 182,004 45,600 1,014,821 679,864 133,419 128,121 73,417 218,339 46,727 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7.8 9.6 7.8 7.2 -5.8 27.8 2.4 11.3 10.2 11.6 12.1 19.9 17.0 13.9 896 793 103 897 853 44 833 768 65 1,032 991 40 807 778 29 -24.2 -15.8 -99.2 5.7 8.1 -13.6 331,014 1,241 266,731 258,363 944 273,690 290,895 1,058 274,948 423,942 1,501 282,439 406,193 1,466 277,076 10.6 -1.5 12.3 24.9 2.2 22.3 358,549 25,337 345,768 24,344 353,047 22,204 409,761 24,771 ... ... 2.2 0.9 8.8 19.2 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 947.6 1.3 3.2 1.9 5.1 954.4 1.3 3.2 1.9 5.5 961.4 1.3 3.2 1.9 5.7 968.4 1.3 3.2 1.9 5.7 975.6 1.3 3.3 1.9 5.8 3.0 -1.2 0.8 2.1 13.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 19.5 25,721 17,893 1,985 121 4,854 4,838 27,144 26,161 18,196 2,025 123 4,928 4,940 27,412 26,625 18,522 2,071 124 5,002 5,048 27,695 27,122 18,882 2,124 126 5,074 5,164 28,006 27,621 19,244 2,176 128 5,144 5,280 28,313 7.4 7.5 9.6 5.8 6.0 9.1 4.3 7.0 7.0 7.8 5.9 6.1 8.5 4.1 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months DEC 2005 % change versus year ago for most recent: quarter 4-quarters www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 19. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Durable Goods Fabricated Metal Products Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Non-Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements DEC 2005 JAN 2006 1,952.9 1,880.5 72.4 4.0 % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months FEB 2006 MAR 2006 APR 2006 1,948.7 1,861.2 87.5 4.3 1,983.3 1,905.5 77.8 3.9 1,972.2 1,902.6 69.6 3.5 1,986.4 1,915.3 71.1 3.7 4.0 4.4 -6.9 -11.9 4.0 4.3 -0.9 -5.1 1,862.8 2.6 175.3 109.1 14.7 40.0 15.3 27.4 84.2 235.0 8.2 55.1 32.9 112.0 38.9 316.4 31.5 155.8 23.1 27.5 124.6 69.2 22.4 211.6 112.9 1,825.8 2.6 172.7 109.1 14.5 40.1 15.3 26.9 84.1 227.9 8.0 54.1 32.5 110.7 38.2 307.4 31.1 156.5 22.7 27.5 122.9 67.8 22.2 200.9 102.1 1,851.2 2.6 175.3 109.5 14.6 40.4 15.3 26.9 84.7 227.8 8.0 54.0 32.2 111.5 38.4 312.7 31.7 157.1 23.6 27.9 125.5 68.7 21.9 211.2 112.1 1,867.6 2.7 178.7 109.6 14.6 40.5 15.3 27.1 85.0 229.7 8.0 53.9 32.4 111.6 38.7 317.5 31.9 157.5 24.2 28.3 128.0 69.3 22.0 211.5 112.2 1,880.6 2.6 182.4 109.6 14.7 40.5 15.3 27.2 85.4 230.2 8.1 53.9 33.0 112.2 39.4 321.3 31.8 158.3 24.5 28.3 129.1 69.2 22.1 212.0 112.3 5.5 13.0 14.6 2.1 5.0 3.8 2.0 -0.7 3.9 7.7 1.3 1.3 -2.7 3.5 5.3 8.7 5.0 3.4 5.6 0.4 5.5 5.0 1.4 1.4 1.9 6.3 5.4 15.7 3.1 5.4 3.2 3.4 0.2 4.1 8.4 2.2 2.0 -1.5 5.1 6.6 9.5 5.4 5.1 6.2 -1.1 6.6 5.7 1.1 1.5 2.6 5,574,665 4,119,293 592,673 553,719 308,980 1,443,256 102,327 4,325,936 2,848,838 606,495 548,249 322,354 1,111,902 143,899 4,424,084 2,962,541 611,718 560,055 289,770 1,198,570 167,365 4,923,288 3,362,447 615,114 607,689 338,038 1,417,472 193,120 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10.8 10.1 12.8 15.8 6.6 30.0 -11.0 15.5 15.4 13.8 14.0 22.3 31.3 7.7 4,703 3,905 176 622 4,915 3,593 257 1,065 3,662 3,045 225 392 4,658 3,814 258 586 4,373 3,374 126 873 -28.1 -27.3 186.4 -37.2 -8.0 -13.7 47.9 31.9 2,093,431 6,300 332,291 1,721,698 5,048 341,065 1,918,768 5,650 339,605 2,393,181 7,149 334,757 2,161,766 6,491 333,041 -16.6 -28.9 17.2 24.3 -6.9 34.4 3,433,127 47,656 3,310,363 46,349 3,146,086 41,527 3,810,342 46,970 ... ... 0.3 -1.2 3.7 0.9 SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce 20. BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Center, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S I 2005 II 2005 PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 3,843.1 3,877.6 Natural Increase 9.6 9.7 Births 16.0 16.1 Deaths 6.4 6.4 Net Migration 25.3 24.8 Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income 122,113 124,983 Earnings by Place of Work 98,712 101,212 Less: Contributions for Social Insurance 10,638 10,919 Plus: Adjustment for Residence -77 -76 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 18,260 18,486 Plus: Transfer Payments 15,857 16,280 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 31,775 32,232 ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR Wages and Salaries Other Labor Income EBR Proprietor’s Income Farm Nonfarm Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR % change versus year ago for most recent: quarter 4-quarters III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 3,912.2 9.9 16.3 6.4 24.7 3,946.8 9.9 16.4 6.5 24.7 3,981.3 10.0 16.5 6.6 24.5 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.0 -3.0 3.7 5.5 4.0 1.8 -5.3 127,911 103,726 11,228 -75 18,799 16,689 32,696 130,896 106,243 11,570 -75 19,224 17,074 33,166 133,867 108,749 11,909 -75 19,647 17,455 33,624 9.6 10.2 12.0 2.1 7.6 10.1 5.8 9.5 10.3 10.2 -2.6 4.6 10.6 5.6 5,970.1 12.8 23.5 10.7 37.1 6,020.0 12.6 24.2 11.5 37.3 6,070.4 13.0 24.2 11.2 37.9 6,120.7 12.3 23.9 11.6 37.4 6,170.8 13.3 24.4 11.1 37.2 3.4 4.2 3.8 3.4 0.3 3.4 0.3 3.4 7.2 0.3 173,844 134,277 14,833 673 26,733 26,994 178,044 137,618 15,166 690 27,386 27,521 181,025 141,188 15,515 708 26,085 28,563 187,096 145,002 15,875 728 28,630 28,616 191,235 148,735 16,729 747 28,990 29,494 10.0 10.8 12.8 11.1 8.4 9.3 9.6 11.3 12.1 11.8 2.9 9.7 97,046 21,794 15,262 734 14,528 29,119 38,918 99,268 22,400 15,935 738 15,197 29,575 39,185 101,934 23,162 16,686 874 15,812 29,821 40,085 104,459 23,807 16,575 759 15,816 30,568 40,419 107,226 24,360 ... ... ... 30,990 ... 10.5 11.8 13.0 82.0 11.0 6.4 5.6 10.9 13.3 11.1 21.0 10.7 6.0 5.9 DEC 2005 JAN 2006 FEB 2006 MAR 2006 781,257 64,645 291,377 425,235 208,809 35,400 159,194 14,215 929,069 72,044 262,685 594,340 280,409 43,049 210,239 27,121 938,308 85,853 278,826 573,629 351,007 57,016 257,875 36,116 1,250,468 119,789 439,030 691,649 392,192 64,426 284,042 43,724 1,626,568 159,827 605,048 861,693 320,134 44,237 221,811 54,086 4.3 7.1 9.1 0.7 -8.0 -31.2 -10.5 50.8 1.7 -3.0 3.6 1.3 -6.2 -7.5 -9.1 10.3 705,441 1,920,452 849,259 631,041 1,842,596 815,271 609,614 1,650,439 748,721 643,444 1,638,170 818,231 ... ... ... -9.5 -11.7 -11.3 -2.7 -6.3 -5.6 196.8 192.5 198.3 194.0 198.7 194.2 199.8 195.3 201.5 197.2 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.7 TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP U.S. Citizens Aliens Vehicles MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS U.S. - All Urban U.S. - Wage Earners APR 2006 % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu 21. A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Durable Goods Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Products Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Utilities Communications Amusements Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 Chapter 13 DEC 2005 JAN 2006 2,886.8 2,764.8 122.0 4.7 MAR 2006 APR 2006 2,880.5 2,736.3 144.2 4.8 2,935.6 2,806.9 128.7 4.4 2,919.8 2,803.9 115.9 4.1 2,940.0 2,820.0 120.0 4.3 3.6 4.1 -6.4 -8.5 3.3 3.5 0.5 -2.1 2,603.4 9.6 231.1 147.6 18.9 45.3 27.0 35.9 102.4 327.9 11.9 70.6 45.0 128.3 51.1 388.1 42.4 238.8 32.4 46.5 182.5 95.8 52.2 363.3 198.4 40.5 2,551.2 9.6 227.5 147.7 18.5 45.3 27.0 35.4 102.0 317.5 11.7 69.3 44.5 126.7 50.2 377.4 41.6 239.1 31.9 46.0 180.3 93.8 51.5 347.5 182.5 39.9 2,588.8 9.8 230.7 148.3 18.6 45.7 27.3 35.5 102.7 317.0 11.9 69.2 44.2 127.8 50.6 383.8 42.5 240.2 33.1 47.0 183.9 94.9 51.3 364.4 199.1 40.5 2,610.5 10.0 234.8 148.3 18.7 45.7 27.0 35.6 103.2 320.6 12.0 69.1 44.2 127.9 51.0 389.1 42.6 241.1 34.5 47.5 187.2 95.9 51.7 364.2 198.7 40.8 2,626.5 10.1 239.6 148.7 18.9 45.8 27.0 34.8 102.9 320.4 12.0 68.8 44.7 128.8 51.9 393.2 42.7 242.4 35.1 48.4 189.6 96.2 51.8 364.4 198.4 40.3 4.9 11.0 12.5 2.6 4.4 3.4 2.3 -0.3 4.0 5.8 3.4 1.2 -2.4 4.3 6.6 7.8 3.9 3.8 6.7 3.0 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.9 1.5 -1.7 5.4 6.4 13.9 2.8 5.1 2.3 1.8 0.3 4.0 6.1 2.8 2.5 -1.6 5.2 7.2 9.0 4.4 5.0 6.9 2.4 6.4 5.3 1.6 0.6 0.9 -1.0 16.12 14.15 14.86 12.01 18.46 16.17 14.52 15.10 12.37 18.25 16.28 14.42 14.96 12.38 17.70 16.34 14.57 14.86 12.27 17.48 16.29 14.77 15.17 12.45 17.84 4.6 0.3 2.8 2.6 -4.9 4.4 1.8 3.1 3.4 -0.8 7,947,369 5,783,926 893,395 774,478 495,569 229,526 630,229 260,600 77,647 298,120 1,945,382 142,304 158,540 6,222,098 4,038,755 910,138 757,181 516,023 225,377 588,874 241,001 84,232 297,422 1,518,375 117,183 206,646 6,403,845 4,222,179 917,976 796,523 467,167 202,667 519,115 301,088 84,775 285,522 1,647,997 97,041 250,512 7,077,050 4,753,435 923,073 854,290 546,252 227,871 543,414 279,549 116,193 356,712 1,916,388 114,567 283,661 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10.0 9.7 12.3 13.4 4.0 -8.7 16.0 10.2 20.3 19.0 28.2 25.5 -7.0 14.5 14.4 12.0 13.5 20.7 -0.3 11.1 10.3 14.0 9.6 28.3 50.2 9.5 6,452 5,567 207 678 6,675 5,250 312 1,113 5,367 4,627 262 478 6,907 5,718 303 886 6,163 5,037 164 962 -26.3 -26.2 100.0 -34.0 -4.8 -8.2 30.4 31.3 248 166 6 76 303 212 8 83 357 273 8 76 557 445 20 92 560 444 16 100 -83.6 -85.1 14.3 -75.7 -1.2 7.7 -7.1 -44.8 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. 22. % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months FEB 2006 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers U.S. - Urban Wage Earners Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures % change versus year ago for most recent: quarter 4-quarters I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 195.8 191.9 187.4 198.5 194.5 190.1 200.0 196.9 192.7 201.3 197.6 193.4 202.7 198.9 194.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.7 111.0 109.9 111.7 110.8 112.6 111.8 113.1 112.6 114.0 113.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 20. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book. 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