INSIDE:
Forecast Tables – pg. 4
Arizona Economic Indicators – pg. 5
J A N U A R Y

2 0 0 6

•

W I N T E R

2006-2007
Outlook:
Continued (and
More Balanced)
Growth Ahead
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
December 1, 2005

I S S U E

Preliminary estimates show that the nation’s economy grew by 3.5% in 2005, despite a series of
devastating hurricanes, gasoline prices soaring to over $3.00 per gallon, supply disruptions and much
higher prices in many commodity markets, and rising interest rates. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised,
as the U.S. economy has shrugged off a number of shocks over the past several years, and each time,
the economy took the blow and bounced back.
The recent hurricanes, although devastating to some cities, subtracted only a few tenths of a percentage point from nationwide GDP growth in the last two quarters. As reconstruction begins in the
first half of 2006, GDP growth will receive a few tenths boost.
Global Insight, a worldwide leader in economic forecasting, predicts that the U.S. economy will
expand by 3.4% in 2006 and 3.1% the following year. That’s not bad for the fifth and sixth years of an
expansion, and represents what economists believe to be “trend” growth. Gasoline prices already have
retreated to less than $2.50 per gallon and should end the year near $2.25. That will help households
pay for much higher home heating bills this winter (natural gas prices will be roughly 50% higher
than a year ago).
A slowdown in consumer spending will be offset by increased business spending. Corporations
have an abundance of cash, and as available capacity continues to get used up in many industries,
businesses will boost spending for both equipment and new plant capacity.
Reconstruction related to the hurricanes, financed by the federal government and private insurance, also will help make up for the smaller contribution from consumers. Nevertheless, the housing
market will cool in the face of reduced affordability, higher interest rates, and less investor interest
in real estate.

Resilient. That’s the best description for
EXHIBIT 1
Slower Spending Lies Ahead

the U.S. economy. Neither price shocks
nor supply disruptions nor natural
disasters has derailed (or even slowed
much) this expansion. Boom best
describes the Arizona economy. Swelling
population continues to be the engine of
growth, boosted by turbo-charged real
estate. The pace should slow a bit in
2006, but the economy will continue to
expand above trend. A better balance
across industries also should emerge –
a stronger industrial sector and less
reliance on growth itself.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

Retail Sales Growth, AZ

% change

Consumer inflation is running near the higher end of the
Fed’s comfort zone, and that means additional increases in
short term interest rates – to 4.75% in March, followed by a
period of stability. That will bring interest rates near the level
considered to be “neutral,” i.e., neither accommodative nor
restrictive. Higher energy costs have boosted year-on-year
“top-line” consumer inflation into the 4-5% range, but that
measure will improve dramatically as gasoline prices fall.
Excluding energy and food, inflation is running right at 2.2%
— exceeding the high end of the Fed’s 1.5-2.0% desired
range. If energy prices bleed into core inflation more than
what we’ve seen so far, the Fed will boost the Fed Funds
rates, perhaps to 6% or above.

EXHIBIT 2
Population Increases Move Higher
Annual Changes in Population, AZ

000s

Deteriorating Consumer Fundamentals
Consumer spending remained remarkably strong in recent
months, but an erosion of consumer fundamentals argues for
a moderation — or maybe even a pull-back going forward.
High energy prices for gasoline and natural gas have left
household budgets with less discretionary money after paying for transportation and utilities. Nationwide, consumer
spending on energy is nearly 25% higher than a year earlier.
Households extracted some $600 billion in capital gains
from their homes in 2004 to support spending. As interest
rates rise and the housing boom comes to an end, it will
become much more difficult to tap the equity in homes.
In recent months, aggregate household savings has turned
negative. Moreover, household debt stands at an all-time
record high 124% of household after-tax income. Consumers
soon will curtail spending and pay down their debt.
As interest rates move higher, debt service on adjustable
debt will rise, pinching household budgets.
New bankruptcy laws now require households to pass an
income test before filing for Chapter 7 liquidation, which
essentially discharges debt. Failing the test forces them into
Chapter 13, which requires them to repay the debt.
New regulatory guidelines for credit card issuers require
lenders to boost minimum payments so they at least cover
the interest due. In some cases, this will result in a doubling
of the minimum monthly payment.
Consumer confidence dropped sharply following Hurricane
Katrina and has remained depressed. Michigan’s Consumer
Sentiment Index dropped to a level last touched in 1992,
while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
fell to the lowest reading in two years.
Arizona consumers remain decidedly more upbeat than in
other parts of the country and continued spending with
abandon as fall approached, boosting year-on-year retail
sales gains to 12% (12 months versus 12 months ending

2.

August). Moreover, spending grew at an accelerating pace. During June, July and August,
the year-on-year gain averaged 18%.
All considered, consumers cannot continue living so far beyond their means, and will be
forced to scale back spending in 2006. As a result, consumption gains will more closely
match current income going forward. Look for spending as measured by retail sales to grow
in the 6-6.5% range statewide during the next two years (Exhibit 1).

Population Growth
The primary driver of the Arizona economy during the first half of this decade has been
outsized increases in the number of new residents. During the past recession, population
growth remained at a historically high 150,000 persons per year, then moved even higher in
2003 to over 200,000. That’s a percentage increase of 3.5% per year – fully three-and-ahalf times faster than nationwide (Exhibit 2).
Arizona and its environs will continue to attract those looking for a warm climate that is
not prone to natural disasters. Relatively inexpensive housing and the availability of jobs
for those who want them also are strong draws. Retirees also favor Arizona’s low taxes.
With more than 6 million residents, Arizona is now the 16th largest state. By mid year
2006, the metro Phoenix area will top 4 million and a year later, metro Tucson’s population
will surpass the 1 million mark.

Is the Housing Boom Over?
Amid the drum roll in the media signaling the approaching end of the housing boom,
Arizona’s markets continue to move ever higher. According to the National Association of
Realtors, Metro Phoenix leads the nation for the median price of existing single-family
homes sold through the MLS. During the third quarter, the median price was $268,000, up
55.2% from the third quarter of 2004. Metro Tucson recorded the second-fastest increase

The primary driver of Arizona’s economy
has been population growth.

EXHIBIT 3
Home Price Appreciation, Selected Metros
Source: OFHEO
latest data = 2005 Q2

Metro Area
Riverside
San Diego
Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Prescott
Phoenix
Yuma
Flagstaff
Tucson
Santa Fe
Las Cruces
Colorado Springs
Albuquerque
Denver
Salt Lake City
Omaha
Dallas
Austin

current Q
annual rate

3 years

5 years

19.2%
10.9%
21.9%
18.7%
47.2%
51.3%
40.3%
26.9%
37.6%
5.0%
17.1%
10.3%
21.2%
3.4%
15.8%
3.7%
5.0%
12.7%

82.9%
69.0%
74.3%
73.7%
50.7%
48.9%
55.4%
46.7%
43.3%
32.2%
31.0%
16.0%
23.9%
10.4%
15.3%
13.7%
9.7%
8.4%

124.3%
118.3%
115.1%
96.1%
70.6%
67.3%
67.3%
65.2%
61.4%
48.2%
41.1%
32.9%
32.5%
29.0%
22.9%
22.8%
21.4%
20.8%

in the West, with a 34.7% increase to $242,300. Housing prices have undergone rapid
acceleration over the past two years as investment money seeking “undiscovered” markets
poured into the state.
This mirrors the kind of increases seen in Las Vegas a year before and in Southern
California coastal cities the year before that. In short, money first spilled out of
overvalued California markets into Las Vegas, then Phoenix, and then Tucson and outlying areas of Arizona.
Using data from the Office of Federal Housing Oversight (OFHEO), which calculates a
repeat-sales price index of resale housing, we find that prices have more than doubled in
Southern California markets over the past 5 years. Prices have almost doubled in Las Vegas,
while Arizona prices are up by roughly two-thirds. Generally, the further east one goes
(excluding East Coast states), the smaller the increase. For example, prices in Albuquerque
and Denver have increased by less than one-third while Dallas and Austin have seen
increases closer to 20% (Exhibit 3).
During the past year, the rate of increase has slowed in California metros and Las Vegas,
while prices have exploded in Arizona markets. Albuquerque and Las Cruces now appear to
be on investors’ radar screens, with Salt Lake City and Austin also beginning to move.
Anecdotes from those who make their living in real estate suggest that the frenzy of
last spring is abating here in Arizona, and that markets are beginning to return to
“normal.” For example, there are reports that the lines of prospective homebuyers hoping
to get their names on the list for the next lottery have disappeared. Bidding wars with
multiple full-price-plus offers have disappeared, and houses are once again selling for less
than asking price.

Arizona’s housing boom is not over, but the frenzy of last
spring will soon be just a memory. Home prices will soon
plateau, but there is little chance of falling prices, due to
favorable demographics and solid job growth. The number
of homes under construction is expected to fall but only
modestly from very high levels. The pullback will be partly
demand related, but availability of labor and materials also
will limit construction activity going forward.

The Outlook Brightens for High Tech
After suffering the worst losses in history – losing
nearly 15% or 30,000 workers during three long years
from 2001-03 — Arizona’s manufacturing sectors are once
again adding to payrolls. Strong capital spending by businesses for computers, electronic products and software,
and other high tech goods has lifted the outlook for many
Arizona manufacturers.
Arizona’s recent strategic initiatives in the biosciences
have put the state “on the map” in this most coveted
“industry of the future.” The quest for new industries is well
underway and will benefit Arizona’s economy in both the
near and longer term.
During the past year, construction accounted for nearly
25,000 new jobs – almost one-fourth of nonfarm jobs
created. In 2006, construction will add a projected 11,000
jobs, trailing professional and business services (27,200),
trade, transportation and utilities (19,100), government
(13,100) and financial activities (12,200). Educational and
health services will add 10,400, leisure and hospitality 9,200,
and manufacturing 3,800. All major industry sectors,
including other services, natural resources and mining, and
information will add to payrolls. This will be the first time
this decade that has happened.
2006 promises to bring trend growth to Arizona’s
economy. Population will expand by another 200,000, and
110,000 new jobs will be created. The average wage per
private-sector worker will rise by 4.9% and total personal
income will grow by 9.4%, aided by a strong rebound of
dividends, interest and rents. The pace will slow in 2007 as
construction activity moderates and consumers spend more
cautiously. (See Table 3)
Metro Phoenix will account for two-thirds of the state’s
new residents and 70% of the new jobs. Metro Tucson will
add 25,000 new residents and nearly 14,000 new jobs. (See
forecast table on page 4).
Solid momentum and resiliency promise to keep this
expansion in “mid-cycle” mode. ■

Strong capital spending is lifting the outlook
for Arizona manufacturers.

3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S
2005
177,499
8.4
39,970
4.8
73,722
11.4
6,027.1
3.3
85,333
-0.5
2,476.7
4.4
396.0
5.6
2,080.9
4.2
480.4
4.2
358.6
7.7
248.3
3.0
411.5
2.8

2006
194,234
9.4
41,823
4.6
78,739
6.8
6,224.3
3.3
79,346
-7.0
2,586.4
4.4
411.6
3.9
2,175.0
4.5
499.5
4.0
385.8
7.6
257.5
3.7
424.6
3.2

2007
208,667
7.4
43,650
4.4
82,845
5.2
6,420.0
3.1
78,285
-1.3
2,665.1
3.0
416.0
1.1
2,249.4
3.4
514.6
3.0
400.1
3.7
264.8
2.9
435.3
2.5

2008
224,357
7.5
45,599
4.5
86,876
4.9
6,610.9
3.0
76,688
-2.0
2,745.7
3.0
422.4
1.6
2,323.5
3.3
529.3
2.9
416.4
4.1
272.9
3.1
443.8
2.0

2009
241,830
7.8
47,672
4.5
92,054
6.0
6,808.6
3.0
79,047
3.1
2,831.5
3.1
431.8
2.2
2,400.0
3.3
545.1
3.0
434.0
4.2
280.8
2.9
453.0
2.1

2010
260,600
7.8
49,768
4.4
97,586
6.0
7,011.7
3.0
81,269
2.8
2,916.9
3.0
442.4
2.5
2,474.8
3.1
560.7
2.9
450.6
3.8
288.2
2.6
463.0
2.2

2011
280,600
7.7
51,927
4.3
103,638
6.2
7,219.0
3.0
82,983
2.1
3,001.5
2.9
454.5
2.7
2,547.3
2.9
575.5
2.6
467.6
3.8
295.1
2.4
473.5
2.3

124,268
9
46,051
5.1
50,646
11.6
3,883.4
3.8
64,038
-1.9
1,756.7
4.5
286.1
5.3
1,470.6
4.4
356.2
4.5
284.1
5.6
170.7
4.8
229.1
3.3

135,108
8.7
48,158
4.6
53,835
6.3
4,015.2
3.4
56,330
-12.0
1,833.0
4.3
291.3
1.8
1,541.7
4.8
370.3
4.0
304.8
7.3
177.3
3.9
236.4
3.2

145,270
7.5
50,436
4.7
56,642
5.2
4,141.2
3.1
49,988
-11.3
1,889.5
3.1
291.4
0.0
1,598.2
3.7
381.6
3.0
318.5
4.5
182.8
3.1
242.0
2.4

156,950
8
52,935
5
59,914
5.8
4,270.3
3.1
51,194
2.4
1,947.1
3.0
294.1
0.9
1,653.0
3.4
393.3
3.1
330.0
3.6
189.7
3.8
246.5
1.9

169,964
8.3
55,511
4.9
63,798
6.5
4,406.1
3.2
53,847
5.2
2,013.2
3.4
302.4
2.8
1,710.9
3.5
405.8
3.2
342.8
3.9
196.5
3.6
251.8
2.1

183,725
8.1
58,131
4.7
67,567
5.9
4,545.4
3.2
55,259
2.6
2,079.7
3.3
311.3
3.0
1,768.4
3.4
417.8
3.0
356.5
4.0
202.2
2.9
258.0
2.5

197,858
7.7
60,822
4.6
71,452
5.7
4,685.3
3.1
55,503
0.4
2,139.9
2.9
319.1
2.5
1,820.8
3.0
428.8
2.6
369.9
3.7
207.0
2.4
264.7
2.6

26,465
7.7
38,235
4.8
10,848
9.6
955.8
2.6
11,808
13.4
372.8
3.8
56.4
4.2
316.4
3.7
60.8
5.3
44.3
4.2
41.4
6.0
80.2
1.1

28,797
8.8
39,904
4.4
11,455
5.6
981.6
2.7
11,232
-4.9
386.5
3.7
59.3
5.1
327.3
3.4
62.9
3.4
47.6
7.5
43.0
3.9
81.6
1.7

30,847
7.1
41,579
4.2
11,959
4.4
1005.5
2.4
9,444
-15.9
396.4
2.5
60.3
1.7
336.1
2.7
64.4
2.3
50.4
5.8
44.2
2.8
82.7
1.3

32,907
6.7
43,249
4.0
12,497
4.5
1029.1
2.3
9,311
-1.4
404.7
2.1
60.4
0.1
344.3
2.5
65.5
1.8
52.5
4.1
45.5
3.0
83.9
1.4

35,044
6.5
44,910
3.8
13,083
4.7
1053.2
2.3
9,499
2.0
412.8
2.0
61.0
1.2
351.8
2.2
66.7
1.8
54.1
3.0
46.6
2.4
85.0
1.4

37,305
6.5
46,589
3.7
13,682
4.6
1077.9
2.3
9,723
2.4
420.9
1.9
62.1
1.8
358.7
2.0
67.9
1.7
55.4
2.5
47.5
1.8
86.2
1.4

39,679
6.4
48,356
3.8
14,311
4.6
1102.3
2.3
9,649
-0.8
428.5
1.8
63.2
1.8
365.3
1.8
69.0
1.6
57.1
3.1
48.2
1.5
87.0
1.0

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

20,575
17,950
2,625
12.8

20,375
17,375
3,000
14.7

20,325
18,000
2,325
11.4

20,300
17,950
2,350
11.6

20,075
17,875
2,200
11.0

-2.8
-3.2
1.1
4.0

-0.5
0.6
-8.2
-7.8

19,250
6,700
725
18,525
1,925
4,050
12,550
3,350
9,200

18,650
6,550
800
17,850
1,825
3,925
12,100
2,950
9,150

19,625
6,900
850
18,775
1,850
4,200
12,725
3,325
9,400

19,925
6,900
850
19,075
1,800
4,250
13,025
3,300
9,725

19,950
6,825
850
19,100
1,900
4,075
13,125
3,250
9,875

-1.6
5.4
17.2
-2.3
2.7
4.5
-4.9
1.6
-6.8

1.6
2.8
-2.3
1.7
-1.1
5.7
1.0
3.0
0.4

15,671
8,899
916
5,855
2,636
5,953
1,145

14,232
6,495
1,242
6,495
2,736
7,400
1,528

15,043
6,607
1,403
7,033
2,698
8,835
1,475

15,229
6,576
1,055
7,598
2,610
10,857
1,373

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

25.2
22.6
2.7
31.6
-11.1
57.3
8.1

14.3
11.8
11.6
17.3
-2.5
12.6
26.0

-1.5
-1.0
-6.4
-5.0

Note: As of Jan 2005, Apache County
no longer reports monthly permits.

38,075
34,850
3,225
8.5

38,450
34,725
3,725
9.7

38,475
35,350
3,125
8.1

37,750
34,625
3,125
8.3

37,175
34,250
2,925
7.9

-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.8

28,825
18,300
3,375
2,475
900
25,450
5,600
675
525
1,225
2,900
3,200
800
10,525
1,750
8,775

28,875
18,500
3,475
2,550
925
25,400
5,650
675
525
1,275
2,725
3,350
825
10,375
1,775
8,600

29,700
18,800
3,400
2,475
925
26,300
5,600
675
525
1,325
3,050
3,375
850
10,900
1,825
9,075

29,575
18,400
3,150
2,425
725
26,425
5,600
650
500
1,275
3,100
3,275
850
11,175
1,875
9,300

29,425
18,250
3,225
2,500
725
26,200
5,525
650
500
1,275
3,100
3,150
825
11,175
1,775
9,400

2.5
1.0
-3.0
2.0
-17.1
3.3
0.5
4.0
-13.0
15.9
-0.8
4.1
3.1
5.2
10.9
4.2

0.4
0.6
-1.0
-1.6
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
-13.9
12.9
0.8
1.8
-0.5
0.1
0.9
-0.1

85,701
64,762
7,768
13,171
5,930
23,196
2,670

90,729
66,916
8,913
14,900
6,277
19,319
4,431

85,591
62,636
7,613
15,342
5,885
20,073
3,201

88,252
65,198
7,361
15,693
5,390
20,491
3,001

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

12.8
9.2
7.9
34.2
-9.3
29.1
12.1

10.4
9.4
9.2
15.6
-4.2
25.5
8.9

81
81

34
34

74
74

59
57

63
59

80.0
68.6

21.0
28.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

12,725
11,950
775
6.1

12,775
11,900
875
6.8

13,000
12,175
825
6.3

13,075
12,200
875
6.7

13,275
12,450
825
6.2

5.1
5.5
0.0
-4.9

3.4
4.2
-6.4
-9.5

7,425
4,425
575
6,850
1,400
2,450
3,000
325
2,675

7,425
4,450
600
6,825
1,400
2,450
2,975
325
2,650

7,850
4,500
600
7,250
1,400
2,500
3,350
325
3,025

8,200
4,525
600
7,600
1,400
2,525
3,675
300
3,375

8,450
4,475
575
7,875
1,400
2,500
3,975
300
3,675

8.7
2.3
9.5
8.6
0.0
2.0
16.9
-7.7
19.5

6.7
-0.4
3.4
6.9
-2.3
-0.2
17.7
-2.0
20.1

18,158
14,649
1,672
1,837
827
2,363

16,860
13,093
1,674
2,093
882
2,397

19,153
15,119
1,573
2,461
944
3,646

18,669
14,600
1,643
2,426
833
2,459

...
...
...
...
...
...

17.4
17.4
12.7
21.1
-18.2
6.7

14.8
13.4
15.6
24.7
4.3
0.5

70,300
66,800
3,500
5.0

70,400
66,400
4,000
5.7

69,600
66,100
3,500
5.0

70,100
66,500
3,600
5.1

70,100
66,700
3,400
4.9

3.1
3.1
3.0
-0.1

2.7
3.3
-6.9
-9.5

63,500
45,300
7,600
3,900
3,700
55,900
9,500
500
1,600
3,600
7,000
13,600
1,900
18,200
3,400
14,800

62,900
45,000
7,700
4,000
3,700
55,200
9,500
500
1,600
3,500
7,000
13,400
1,800
17,900
3,300
14,600

63,300
45,100
7,900
4,100
3,800
55,400
9,500
500
1,600
3,500
7,200
13,100
1,800
18,200
3,600
14,600

64,700
45,100
7,900
4,100
3,800
56,800
9,600
500
1,600
3,500
7,300
12,800
1,900
19,600
3,600
16,000

65,200
45,300
7,900
4,100
3,800
57,300
9,800
500
1,600
3,500
7,400
12,700
1,900
19,900
3,400
16,500

5.5
6.1
9.7
10.8
8.6
4.9
6.5
0.0
0.0
2.9
8.8
5.0
0.0
4.2
3.0
4.4

5.0
6.2
17.5
15.8
19.2
3.4
2.4
7.1
-2.1
4.0
4.7
6.4
0.9
2.2
-1.0
2.9

148,295
94,394
31,760
22,141
9,969
29,125
23,728

148,724
92,627
30,875
25,222
10,625
29,610
25,324

144,138
90,089
28,005
26,045
9,991
39,897
21,804

140,565
88,783
26,827
24,956
8,572
35,233
21,394

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.5
11.9
3.6
42.8
-3.5
31.5
7.0

7.0
4.0
8.3
19.1
-1.1
4.4
6.2

145
75

64
64

176
67

174
90

88
88

25.7
25.7

13.1
-15.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

3,650
3,450
200
5.5

3,625
3,425
200
5.5

3,675
3,500
175
4.8

3,750
3,525
225
6.0

3,775
3,575
200
5.3

4.9
5.1
0.0
-4.6

3.4
4.3
-9.9
-13.0

3,750
3,250
2,700
1,050
250
300
500
50
450

3,775
3,275
2,725
1,050
250
300
500
50
450

3,750
3,275
2,725
1,025
250
300
475
50
425

3,750
3,275
2,725
1,025
250
300
475
50
425

3,775
3,300
2,750
1,025
250
300
475
50
425

6.3
9.1
10.0
-2.4
11.1
0.0
-9.5
0.0
-10.5

5.8
7.7
9.6
-2.7
5.6
-5.3
-4.7
9.5
-6.0

9,757
8,912
236
609
274
1,049
367

8,869
7,906
306
657
277
1,635
695

10,310
9,209
300
801
307
1,479
524

10,566
9,582
203
781
268
5,038
668

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

28.1
25.8
-3.0
86.0
25.7
232.6
79.4

21.6
20.8
4.7
44.6
19.6
11.2
16.3

90,200
86,700
3,500
3.9

89,600
85,800
3,800
4.2

90,100
86,400
3,700
4.1

91,300
87,200
4,100
4.5

91,000
87,100
3,900
4.3

2.0
1.8
8.3
6.2

3.2
3.6
-5.5
-8.6

58,200
48,000
11,200
7,800
3,400
47,000
11,500
700
2,000
4,300
8,300
8,200
1,800
10,200
1,300
8,900

57,800
48,100
11,200
7,800
3,400
46,600
11,700
700
2,000
4,300
8,100
8,100
2,000
9,700
1,300
8,400

58,700
48,200
11,200
7,900
3,300
47,500
11,600
700
2,000
4,300
8,400
8,000
2,000
10,500
1,300
9,200

60,200
49,000
11,300
8,000
3,300
48,900
11,800
700
2,100
4,400
8,500
8,200
2,000
11,200
1,300
9,900

60,400
49,000
11,200
7,900
3,300
49,200
12,000
700
2,100
4,400
8,600
8,000
2,000
11,400
1,300
10,100

4.7
5.2
2.8
2.6
3.1
5.1
7.1
0.0
10.5
7.3
3.6
5.3
5.3
2.7
0.0
3.1

5.2
6.0
5.7
7.3
2.3
5.1
9.1
0.0
5.4
4.8
3.9
6.4
1.8
2.2
3.4
2.1

171,145
131,756
22,450
16,938
7,626
69,546
8,235

173,126
132,314
22,379
18,433
7,765
62,428
7,657

173,539
131,506
21,434
20,599
7,902
69,880
7,155

171,561
130,071
20,529
20,960
7,199
62,935
7,858

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

19.5
18.1
8.7
44.7
-2.2
14.5
-10.3

15.8
15.5
13.8
20.4
-0.1
21.1
17.2

404
385

412
410

395
386

315
311

316
302

20.6
17.1

15.1
23.7

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

20,325
19,125
1,200
5.9

20,550
19,200
1,350
6.6

20,875
19,600
1,275
6.1

20,425
19,025
1,400
6.9

20,200
18,850
1,350
6.7

-1.1
-1.4
3.8
5.0

-2.7
-2.2
-9.6
-7.2

13,550
8,950
2,050
11,500
2,275
4,625
4,600
525
4,075

13,475
8,925
1,900
11,575
2,250
4,775
4,550
550
4,000

13,950
8,950
1,875
12,075
2,250
4,825
5,000
550
4,450

13,700
8,750
1,850
11,850
2,200
4,700
4,950
525
4,425

13,650
8,750
1,850
11,800
2,200
4,700
4,900
500
4,400

-0.9
-1.7
-7.5
0.2
3.5
-1.6
0.5
0.0
0.6

-1.7
-1.4
-2.7
-1.6
2.2
-2.4
-2.4
-4.8
-2.1

37,687
25,196
5,698
6,793
3,058
6,075
1,173

38,481
25,701
5,340
7,440
3,134
9,418
1,587

35,944
23,754
4,683
7,507
2,880
8,436
1,164

35,140
23,801
4,665
6,674
2,292
10,504
1,221

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

22.2
24.7
7.2
25.3
-15.3
11.3
33.3

14.3
12.4
7.0
28.0
7.0
-12.6
16.7

87,100
83,850
3,250
3.7

87,600
84,000
3,600
4.1

87,100
83,625
3,475
4.0

86,675
82,750
3,925
4.5

86,475
82,750
3,725
4.3

2.4
1.9
14.6
11.9

3.0
3.3
-4.8
-7.7

51,025
44,000
10,175
6,450
3,725
40,850
11,600
800
2,200
4,025
6,525
6,400
2,275
7,025
550
6,475

50,925
44,100
9,950
6,275
3,675
40,975
11,625
800
2,275
4,050
6,550
6,500
2,350
6,825
550
6,275

51,225
44,000
10,025
6,400
3,625
41,200
11,400
750
2,250
3,925
6,750
6,500
2,400
7,225
550
6,675

51,350
44,025
9,925
6,325
3,600
41,425
11,525
750
2,175
3,975
6,850
6,475
2,350
7,325
550
6,775

51,875
44,525
9,975
6,400
3,575
41,900
11,675
725
2,200
3,925
7,025
6,625
2,375
7,350
550
6,800

4.4
5.3
0.0
2.4
-4.0
5.5
5.2
-9.4
10.0
7.5
8.1
10.0
6.7
-1.0
4.8
-1.4

4.4
5.6
2.0
1.4
3.1
5.0
8.0
-6.8
9.9
9.0
7.0
5.2
1.2
-1.9
2.8
-2.3

173,935
129,213
17,883
26,839
12,084
60,193
4,282

174,439
125,476
18,049
30,914
13,023
60,721
5,453

173,886
125,716
16,796
31,374
12,035
61,219
4,213

179,625
136,105
16,183
27,337
9,389
61,228
4,316

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

28.8
32.1
1.5
33.4
-9.9
19.8
11.0

18.8
17.3
13.8
31.2
9.4
28.3
7.5

350
340

299
295

343
326

387
380

328
316

15.9
15.8

14.5
19.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

8,100
7,575
525
6.5

8,025
7,450
575
7.2

8,025
7,500
525
6.5

7,600
7,025
575
7.6

7,425
6,900
525
7.1

1.7
1.5
5.0
3.2

0.7
0.8
-0.4
-1.2

5,375
3,125
425
4,950
1,375
1,325
2,250
225
2,025

5,375
3,125
425
4,950
1,425
1,275
2,250
200
2,050

5,500
3,150
375
5,125
1,425
1,350
2,350
225
2,125

5,400
3,100
375
5,025
1,400
1,325
2,300
225
2,075

5,325
3,025
375
4,950
1,325
1,325
2,300
225
2,075

3.4
6.1
15.4
2.6
3.9
6.0
0.0
12.5
-1.2

3.1
6.5
3.3
3.1
5.9
8.1
-1.2
6.3
-1.9

18,219
10,423
1,960
5,836
2,628
2,806
486

19,056
9,559
2,585
6,912
2,912
2,576
580

17,462
8,739
1,840
6,883
2,640
3,022
497

16,167
8,581
1,854
5,732
1,969
3,399
462

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

19.5
17.0
8.2
27.8
-13.7
112.5
15.6

20.5
19.3
11.0
26.5
6.9
-14.4
7.5

82,100
67,600
14,500
17.7

82,500
65,000
17,500
21.2

80,900
65,400
15,500
19.2

78,500
64,100
14,400
18.3

78,000
65,700
12,300
15.8

5.4
5.1
7.0
1.5

5.5
6.0
2.5
-3.3

50,800
36,800
7,300
5,200
2,100
43,500
10,000
1,200
1,500
3,400
6,400
5,300
1,700
14,000
3,100
10,900

49,600
36,200
7,200
5,200
2,000
42,400
10,000
1,200
1,500
3,300
6,200
5,100
1,700
13,400
3,200
10,200

50,600
36,300
7,300
5,300
2,000
43,300
10,000
1,200
1,500
3,300
6,200
5,100
1,700
14,300
3,100
11,200

52,100
37,200
7,300
5,300
2,000
44,800
10,300
1,300
1,500
3,600
6,300
5,100
1,800
14,900
3,100
11,800

53,600
38,200
7,500
5,400
2,100
46,100
10,800
1,300
1,500
3,600
6,400
5,300
1,800
15,400
3,100
12,300

7.4
7.6
5.6
14.9
-12.5
7.7
9.1
8.3
7.1
12.5
4.9
6.0
12.5
6.9
6.9
7.0

8.8
9.1
6.7
19.1
-11.6
9.2
14.2
8.2
4.8
2.0
8.0
9.6
11.4
8.0
5.2
8.8

123,428
92,326
13,228
17,874
8,047
42,100
2,741

117,284
84,627
13,328
19,329
8,142
39,043
2,511

119,104
86,541
11,850
20,712
7,945
49,980
2,733

126,647
93,530
12,432
20,685
7,105
39,617
2,417

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.7
9.8
15.6
43.2
-3.3
24.3
-5.9

17.7
17.0
15.5
23.3
3.0
30.5
11.3

208
203

183
178

200
195

213
208

168
168

-32.3
-8.7

-9.7
-4.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

16,025
14,700
1,325
8.3

15,450
13,625
1,825
11.8

15,450
13,700
1,750
11.3

15,475
13,475
2,000
12.9

15,250
13,425
1,825
12.0

-3.2
-3.6
0.0
3.3

1.2
2.1
-6.9
-7.6

12,775
9,500
1,025
11,750
5,150
3,325
3,275
1,200
2,075

11,800
8,800
975
10,825
4,600
3,225
3,000
1,200
1,800

12,000
8,700
975
11,025
4,525
3,200
3,300
1,175
2,125

11,950
8,700
925
11,025
4,500
3,275
3,250
1,150
2,100

12,000
8,800
875
11,125
4,525
3,400
3,200
1,100
2,100

-1.4
-0.8
-14.6
-0.2
-1.1
3.8
-3.0
-6.4
-1.2

3.8
5.7
0.0
4.1
7.7
4.4
-1.3
0.4
-2.2

38,139
29,852
2,846
5,440
2,449
5,928
1,021

38,258
28,911
3,357
5,989
2,523
13,509
1,044

36,719
27,731
2,884
6,104
2,341
5,447
768

35,101
26,078
3,453
5,570
1,913
10,334
888

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

19.0
17.1
36.3
18.7
-19.8
56.0
-15.9

15.1
15.8
6.6
16.7
-2.0
4.7
14.1

52
52

45
45

55
52

64
59

48
48

0.0
4.3

8.1
6.9

56,000
53,375
2,625
4.7

56,150
53,250
2,900
5.2

57,100
54,350
2,750
4.8

57,250
54,150
3,100
5.4

57,275
54,375
2,900
5.1

3.9
3.6
11.5
7.3

2.7
3.0
-3.4
-6.0

36,025
24,575
3,850
3,000
850
32,175
6,250
525
950
3,800
4,000
4,075
1,125
11,450
4,900
6,550

36,200
24,750
3,950
3,100
850
32,250
6,200
525
975
3,875
4,025
4,075
1,125
11,450
4,950
6,500

37,300
25,100
4,000
3,150
850
33,300
6,275
500
1,000
3,925
4,075
4,225
1,100
12,200
5,000
7,200

37,825
25,275
3,925
3,125
800
33,900
6,375
525
975
4,050
4,050
4,250
1,125
12,550
5,000
7,550

38,250
25,700
4,000
3,175
825
34,250
6,400
525
1,000
4,325
4,050
4,275
1,125
12,550
4,875
7,675

6.5
6.7
8.1
18.7
-19.5
6.3
-0.8
5.0
11.1
23.6
5.2
5.6
0.0
5.9
1.6
8.9

4.7
5.3
13.0
18.3
-2.7
3.8
1.9
1.6
3.0
6.7
5.3
4.9
1.3
3.6
2.9
4.1

84,550
64,394
8,712
11,443
5,152
19,808
2,517

82,500
60,992
8,742
12,767
5,378
11,495
2,664

82,463
59,775
8,982
13,706
5,258
19,492
2,479

79,841
57,853
8,626
13,362
4,589
21,330
2,601

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

12.6
8.8
8.9
35.6
-8.4
17.8
29.6

7.8
5.5
2.4
27.1
6.8
5.0
11.6

83
83

39
39

75
75

110
108

92
90

21.1
18.4

23.6
22.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

443.1
424.0
19.1
4.1

439.5
418.4
21.1
4.6

442.7
422.5
20.2
4.4

450.3
427.7
22.6
5.0

450.8
429.5
21.3
4.7

1.5
1.2
7.6
4.4

1.8
2.1
-5.3
-6.5

365.8
1.5
26.6
28.6
4.9
11.1
8.6
42.8
8.6
7.1
18.2
43.3
49.4
5.5
8.3
26.4
15.0
10.2
65.7
40.4

360.2
1.3
26.7
28.7
4.9
11.1
8.6
42.8
8.6
7.1
18.5
43.4
49.4
5.3
8.3
25.9
15.0
10.2
60.4
35.0

367.0
1.3
26.8
28.9
4.8
11.4
8.7
42.7
9.0
7.2
18.7
43.8
50.2
5.1
8.3
26.6
15.0
10.3
64.4
39.4

374.9
1.3
26.4
28.6
4.8
11.2
8.7
42.7
8.9
7.0
18.8
44.2
51.0
5.2
8.4
27.1
15.0
10.3
71.3
46.3

379.0
1.3
26.9
28.5
4.8
11.2
8.6
43.3
9.2
7.0
19.0
44.8
51.3
5.5
8.3
27.4
15.2
10.5
72.2
47.5

3.8
-7.1
8.9
0.4
-4.0
0.0
2.4
3.6
8.2
-6.7
10.5
4.9
4.9
7.8
9.2
4.2
1.3
6.1
0.6
0.0

3.6
10.5
9.0
0.1
-3.8
-1.5
5.9
3.9
4.2
-4.7
10.8
2.7
5.0
4.2
12.3
3.2
1.6
5.0
0.6
0.8

920,910
625,536
121,593
100,622
73,159
183,880
26,555

844,331
562,703
115,724
88,644
77,261
156,581
14,573

933,550
615,176
118,343
110,176
89,855
194,683
19,669

910,011
587,212
122,768
104,403
95,628
186,483
21,681

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.8
11.5
11.5
17.1
59.9
18.9
21.1

10.4
8.3
10.4
11.9
27.6
13.8
17.1

1,303
1,159
144

1,035
913
122

1,054
920
134

1,116
956
160

903
789
114

10.2
12.0
-0.7

15.7
17.8
0.5

497,024
1,858
267,505

412,306
1,584
260,294

477,376
1,795
265,947

354,531
1,404
252,515

355,266
1,368
259,698

29.9
5.6
22.9

38.9
12.5
23.8

328,848
23,835

339,066
22,834

321,033
24,977

313,413
23,941

...
...

14.5
24.8

10.0
11.5

III
2004

IV
2004

I
2005

II
2005

III
2005

934.5
1.3
3.2
1.9
4.6

940.2
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.5

946.4
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

952.7
1.3
3.3
2.0
5.0

959.1
1.3
3.3
2.0
5.1

2.6
-0.8
1.0
2.1
10.0

2.6
0.4
1.3
2.0
22.6

24,800
17,152
1,940
117
4,884
4,587
26,539

25,282
17,536
1,983
120
4,927
4,682
26,889

25,631
17,876
2,019
122
4,903
4,748
27,083

26,166
18,271
2,064
125
4,979
4,855
27,465

26,732
18,660
2,110
128
5,085
4,969
27,871

7.8
8.8
8.8
9.8
4.1
8.3
5.0

7.4
8.5
8.5
9.3
3.4
7.9
4.7

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2005

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

1,888.6
1,813.9
74.7
3.8

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

1,894.5
1,812.6
81.9
4.2

1,895.0
1,816.4
78.6
4.0

1,901.9
1,813.7
88.2
4.5

1,909.4
1,826.1
83.3
4.3

2.2
2.1
4.5
2.4

2.1
2.6
-7.9
-10.2

1,722.7
2.4
157.5
103.9
13.8
38.3
15.3
27.1
79.4
211.9
7.9
53.0
34.5
107.1
35.0
280.8
30.3
151.1
21.9
28.0
115.9
64.3
21.9
188.8
87.5

1,714.5
1.7
159.4
104.1
13.7
38.6
15.3
26.8
79.0
213.6
8.0
52.8
34.3
107.4
35.0
281.7
28.7
151.0
21.0
27.5
113.3
65.4
21.9
181.9
80.7

1,737.1
1.7
160.6
104.0
13.7
38.7
15.4
26.8
79.1
214.4
8.0
53.1
33.9
108.2
35.2
284.2
30.5
152.1
21.1
26.8
114.3
66.2
21.8
195.1
95.3

1,759.4
1.7
162.4
103.9
13.7
38.6
15.4
26.7
78.9
214.1
8.0
53.2
34.0
109.3
35.2
286.5
31.9
152.1
21.5
27.2
115.2
66.4
21.7
209.5
110.0

1,778.7
1.7
165.1
103.9
13.8
38.5
15.4
26.7
79.8
216.3
8.0
53.4
34.1
109.1
35.7
290.6
32.6
152.3
22.3
28.1
117.1
66.7
21.8
213.4
112.8

4.4
-19.0
13.0
0.7
3.8
1.3
4.1
-1.1
1.8
7.2
1.3
-0.6
-1.7
4.7
4.1
4.7
11.3
4.3
4.2
2.6
3.9
3.1
-0.9
2.3
2.9

4.2
2.5
11.8
-0.1
3.4
-1.2
4.6
0.2
1.1
6.5
-0.0
1.5
-4.9
3.4
2.9
4.5
12.8
4.2
4.0
3.3
3.7
1.2
1.4
3.6
4.4

4,334,022
3,011,668
534,908
482,403
305,042
1,254,685
73,782

4,163,783
2,892,981
509,092
434,755
326,955
1,092,723
64,978

4,313,942
2,966,336
520,612
450,881
376,113
1,139,362
62,653

4,296,273
2,878,748
540,077
479,397
398,050
1,204,574
83,888

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

16.8
13.7
12.6
17.2
55.0
29.1
18.0

13.4
13.0
11.6
12.1
22.3
27.7
14.2

5,743
5,188
56
499

5,100
4,229
176
695

5,753
4,740
199
814

5,263
4,350
38
875

5,433
3,889
144
1,400

3.7
-13.8
105.7
112.8

-2.7
-7.0
-20.2
40.3

3,150,939
9,861
319,535

2,845,009
9,065
313,845

3,117,731
9,703
321,316

2,827,977
8,871
318,789

2,513,633
7,751
324,298

37.1
-1.1
38.6

49.1
13.2
31.5

3,570,023
46,839

3,726,021
47,449

3,502,098
48,135

3,130,240
45,879

3,451,033
47,572

1.8
2.9

4.9
1.7

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border
Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
III
2004

IV
2004

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,760.2
3,796.9
Natural Increase
9.2
9.3
Births
15.6
15.7
Deaths
6.4
6.4
Net Migration
26.0
27.4
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
115,165
117,816
Earnings by Place of Work
92,351
94,666
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
10,223
10,485
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-45
-45
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
18,255
18,494
Plus: Transfer Payments
14,827
15,186
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
30,627
31,030
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2005

II
2005

III
2005

3,832.0
9.3
15.8
6.5
25.8

3,866.0
9.3
15.9
6.6
24.7

3,899.4
9.4
16.1
6.6
24.0

3.7
1.9
2.8
4.1
-7.8

3.8
1.6
2.5
3.9
-3.3

120,149
96,741
10,732
-44
18,694
15,488
31,354

122,905
99,122
10,997
-44
18,957
15,867
31,791

125,656
101,459
11,261
-43
19,251
16,250
32,224

9.1
9.9
10.2
4.2
5.5
9.6
5.2

8.8
9.6
10.1
3.4
5.3
9.3
4.8

5,857.2
12.5
23.3
10.8
37.5

5,907.0
13.3
23.8
10.5
36.3

5,955.8
12.8
23.4
10.6
35.2

6,003.5
12.6
23.9
11.3
34.7

6,051.2
12.5
23.8
11.2
35.6

3.3
0.2
2.2
4.5
-5.2

3.4
4.4
3.0
1.4
-7.1

164,530
125,754
13,963
624
26,359
25,759

170,260
129,377
14,311
643
28,517
26,038

171,835
132,231
14,773
658
26,828
26,894

175,879
135,610
15,107
676
27,297
27,408

178,826
138,266
15,354
690
27,116
28,111

8.7
9.9
10.0
10.5
2.9
9.1

8.8
9.9
9.9
10.4
4.5
8.8

91,236
20,193
14,745
571
14,174
28,090
37,751

93,955
20,872
14,663
412
14,251
28,824
38,532

95,698
21,644
15,220
719
14,501
28,852
38,835

98,023
22,279
15,748
619
15,129
29,296
39,340

100,014
22,659
...
...
...
29,552
...

9.6
12.2
7.8
-17.6
9.2
5.2
6.1

9.6
12.6
9.9
-5.7
10.6
5.2
5.6

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

AUG
2005

SEP
2005

2,492,620
150,888
797,838
1,543,894
135,463
22,616
70,853
41,994

2,342,875
149,330
851,679
1,341,866
125,249
22,710
63,842
38,697

2,108,659
135,082
784,421
1,189,156
105,084
19,186
61,403
24,495

1,579,277
133,819
559,871
885,587
103,175
20,093
60,559
22,523

1,394,300
119,325
486,432
788,543
193,454
30,898
131,822
30,734

0.4
-10.0
-3.6
4.9
0.8
3.0
-2.6
15.8

-1.1
-10.2
0.3
-0.5
-1.3
6.2
-3.1
-0.9

682,868
1,781,771
863,396

689,665
1,768,295
843,523

661,511
1,464,779
...

630,599
1,716,005
...

...
...
...

-2.3
-1.1
-4.4

-6.1
-11.8
0.5

194.5
190.1

195.4
191.0

196.4
192.1

198.8
195.0

199.2
195.2

4.3
4.7

3.4
3.5

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

OCT
2005

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

2,837.1
2,705.9
131.2
4.4

SEP
2005

OCT
2005

2,839.3
2,693.1
146.2
4.9

2,842.4
2,704.6
137.8
4.6

2,854.3
2,703.9
150.4
5.0

2,860.2
2,719.6
140.6
4.9

2.1
2.0
5.4
4.3

2.1
2.6
-6.4
-8.2

2,437.3
9.5
212.8
142.5
17.9
44.1
27.0
33.8
96.0
304.2
11.6
66.6
46.2
122.7
46.2
347.9
40.4
231.7
33.3
46.8
171.0
89.8
52.2
332.1
162.2
40.8

2,420.3
8.3
215.2
142.6
17.8
44.3
27.0
33.6
95.2
306.0
11.7
66.5
45.9
123.0
46.4
349.3
37.8
231.9
32.2
46.0
168.6
91.1
51.9
317.1
146.8
41.8

2,456.3
8.3
216.7
142.8
17.8
44.3
27.3
33.6
95.2
307.0
11.7
66.7
45.6
123.9
46.7
351.7
41.1
233.7
32.0
45.1
170.3
92.1
52.4
339.7
172.0
42.8

2,491.6
8.2
218.4
142.2
17.8
44.2
27.1
33.4
95.1
306.9
11.7
66.8
45.7
124.9
46.8
354.3
43.1
234.8
32.6
45.5
172.0
92.3
52.1
364.8
198.2
42.4

2,518.8
8.4
222.5
142.3
18.0
44.1
27.1
33.5
96.2
310.4
11.7
67.0
46.0
124.7
47.3
358.5
44.3
235.6
33.4
47.1
174.1
93.1
51.7
371.0
203.6
43.1

4.2
-3.4
12.6
0.4
3.4
0.9
3.0
-1.8
1.4
6.6
1.7
-1.0
-1.7
4.4
3.5
4.7
10.8
5.0
9.5
5.1
3.7
3.6
1.0
1.3
1.4
4.6

4.1
6.6
11.1
0.8
3.5
-0.9
1.9
-1.6
1.6
6.5
0.5
0.7
-4.7
3.1
2.6
4.6
10.9
4.7
7.9
4.5
3.4
1.2
1.3
2.7
3.8
3.1

16.03
14.94
14.70
12.13
18.71

16.09
15.11
15.01
12.34
19.27

15.98
14.80
15.04
12.36
19.06

15.96
14.75
15.00
12.15
19.28

15.84
14.53
15.15
12.07
19.42

3.2
2.4
4.0
-0.1
6.9

2.9
3.0
4.9
3.4
2.2

6,335,232
4,311,981
812,117
698,155
512,979
230,957
690,270
256,626
71,793
295,300
1,706,706
122,071
148,691

6,078,778
4,110,302
772,921
640,188
555,367
233,947
765,935
257,057
73,550
265,879
1,508,855
113,781
133,026

6,312,302
4,228,932
790,411
668,422
624,537
239,571
810,445
261,529
60,611
281,690
1,625,450
106,564
128,336

6,280,765
4,126,716
819,964
688,631
645,453
221,691
779,801
256,987
54,781
281,046
1,674,482
115,262
151,767

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

16.5
13.9
10.6
15.6
50.9
1.9
10.2
8.7
6.2
12.7
27.1
56.6
14.2

12.8
12.3
10.4
11.8
23.0
2.3
8.1
4.7
7.3
2.9
24.3
67.3
13.7

8,404
7,654
105
645

7,228
6,266
198
764

8,156
6,908
251
997

7,722
6,584
83
1,055

7,466
5,812
199
1,455

6.2
-5.5
111.7
84.6

1.9
0.2
-20.7
34.9

2,909
2,541
18
350

2,524
2,273
11
240

3,491
3,158
12
320

4,966
4,557
13
396

11,133
10,410
20
703

355.2
416.1
11.1
71.0

41.7
53.7
-23.2
-10.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2004

IV
2004

I
2005

II
2005

III
2005

193.2
189.6
185.1

194.8
190.7
186.4

195.8
191.9
187.4

198.5
194.5
190.1

200.0
196.9
192.7

3.5
3.8
4.1

3.0
3.3
3.4

109.4
108.5

110.1
109.3

111.0
109.9

111.7
110.8

112.4
111.9

2.8
3.1

2.7
2.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:

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15.

2006 Fathauer Lecture in Political Economy
Economist and Professor
Dr. Robert H. Frank of Cornell University

A Word from your Peers . . .
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Dr. Frank’s work uniquely applies economic
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Thursday, February 23, 2006
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