INSIDE:

O C T O B E R

2 0 0 5

•

F A L L

Surging Tax
Revenues Will
Soon Recede
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 2005

State tax revenues exploded in recent
months. This newest “surprise” is
producing jaw-dropping increases not
seen in decades. These robust results
suggest that the booming Arizona
economy may be even stronger than
previously thought. But the outsized
gains are largely transitory and will fade
as the new fiscal year unfolds.
Lawmakers need to resist the temptation
to enact permanent tax cuts like they did
in the 1990s. A better utilization of
excess revenues is to restore the state’s
Budget Stabilization Fund to a
meaningful level.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

I S S U E

Forecast Tables – pg. 5
New Leadership at the Eller Helm – pg. 6
Technology & Management
Awards Luncheon – pg. 7
Best Cities for Business – pg. 8
Arizona Economic Indicators – pg. 9

For the fiscal year that just concluded in June,
revenues deposited into the state’s general fund
nearly reached $8 billion, an increase of 18.7%
over the prior year. That’s the largest increase
since fiscal year 1975, some 30 years ago.
All three major tax sources recorded out-sized
gains. Corporate income taxes, which comprise
8.6% of total revenues, rose by 42.1%. Individual
income taxes (36.4% of the total) increased a
whopping 28.9%. Sales and use taxes, the largest
source at nearly 45%, rose by 11.1%.
Both individual and sales and use tax categories
ended the year on an accelerating trend while corporate growth leveled off, which provides a good
start for collections during the new fiscal year.
Corporate income taxes vary widely from year to
year. Over the past five years, the percentage
changes have been +3.4%, -30.8%, +65.6%, 20.3% and last year’s +42.1% gain. These
fluctuations defy explanation and correlate poorly
with measures of profitability, stock market prices,
or any other aggregate measure of economic
performance. Care to venture a guess as to what
the current year will bring? If history is any
indication, last year’s large increase may be
followed by a decline.
The other two major components are (usually)
reliable indicators of economic conditions and also
more predictable. Nevertheless, the recent surge
of individual income taxes is unprecedented, and
can not be explained by economic fundamentals
(Exhibit 1).
The last “surprise” came during fiscal year 1997’s
high-tech-led boom, when collections rose a heady
14.3%. A boom in capital gains, bonuses and stock
options, which became widely used in compensation packages, particularly by high-flying dot-com
companies, accounted for the burst. During the
high-tech bust and 2001 recession, these three
components largely disappeared. Their reappearance no doubt explains a major part of the FY
2005 surprise.
This time, profits of small businesses are thought
to have contributed significantly, as tax liabilities
for many of these firms flow through to, and are
paid on, individual returns. This is collaborated by
large income gains registered by the self employed.

Income statistics collected by the federal Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) show proprietor
income accelerating during the past year to a
13.4% gain in the first quarter 2005. That’s the
largest increase since early 2001. Given the way
the numbers are gathered — with actual data
available only after income tax returns are filed
and tabulated more than a year later — proprietor
income is probably understated,
perhaps significantly so.
Wage and salary disbursements,
which account for roughly twothirds of personal income, also rose
a very strong 9.4% over the same
Strong
period (Exhibit 2).
employment
Aggregate wage and salary disbursements are being powered by
growth and
robust increases in wage rates and
large wage
strong employment growth. Wages
per employee in the private sector
increases
grew by more than 6.0% in the year
are helping
ending in the first quarter. That’s
the strongest gain since the tech
to fuel
boom ended (Exhibit 3).
spending.
Employment growth is reported to
be running a strong 4-plus percent,
and those estimates are likely
understating job creation.
The soaring components
described above still don’t entirely account for the burst in individual income tax collections. Cuts in personal
income taxes at the federal level may explain the
remainder. This has nothing to do with supply side
economics – the “cut taxes to stimulate the economy” mantra. The effect of the President’s tax
cuts of 2003 was to move collections from fiscal
year 2004 into 2005.
Here’s what happened. As part of the last tax
cut, federal withholding schedules were reduced
effective May 2003. Since Arizona ties state withholding to the federal, this also reduced state
withholding — even though the underlying
state liability did not change. Arizona lawmakers boosted withholding rates so as
to offset the loss, but appreciably
underestimated the amount

needed. This produced a withholding shortfall estimated at
$152 million during calendar year 2004, which boosted final
payments for 2004 returns that were filed in early 2005. In
addition, the state finally fixed the under withholding problem effective January 1, 2005 by boosting withholding rates.
So withholding, final payments, and estimated payments
surged during the first half of 2005. This boost to collections will disappear, of course, in the current fiscal year.

Sales Tax Collections Are
Sky-rocketing
Sales and use tax collections deposited into the state’s
general fund rose by 11.1% in fiscal year 2005. That’s the
largest increase in at least 20 years, and follows an increase
of 8.5% during the prior year. Most of the gain reflects
increases in the volume of sales, since inflation remains at a
low two percent or so. What’s more, collections accelerated
throughout the past year, and enter the current fiscal year
with a good deal of upward momentum (Exhibit 4).
Strong employment growth and large wage increases, as
mentioned above, are helping to fuel spending. Additionally,
consumers also have been taping equity in their homes and
spending that as well. Nationwide, households pulled out
$139 billion in cash-out refinancings and boosted homeequity borrowing by $178 billion last year. The total represents 3.7% of household disposable income. Moreover, the
savings rate is now close to zero, and household debt as a
percent of after-tax income stands at an all-time high. In
short, consumers are using their homes as a piggy bank to
prop up current high rates of spending.
Among the various categories of sales tax, the contracting
tax recorded the largest gain during FY 2005, soaring by
21.2%. The bed tax (hotel, motel) recorded the second
largest gain (12.6%) followed by the use tax (11.8%), restaurant & bar (10.1%), and retail (9.2%). (Exhibit 5)
The largest category is retail, accounting for over 47%.
The second largest is contracting at 19.1%, which brings in
nearly $700 million to the state’s general fund. That’s
roughly the same number that is raised by the corporate
income tax! Utilities, restaurant and bar, and the use tax are
the next largest, contributing about 7 to 8 percent each in
total collections.

EXHIBIT 1
An Unprecedented “Surprise”
Individual Income Tax, AZ

% change year ago
60

40

20

0

-20

-40
00

01

02

03

04

05

EXHIBIT 3
Wages Are Increasing Rapidly
Average Wages per Employee

% change year ago

Private Sectors, Arizona

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4
90

2.

General Fund (year on year growth)

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

For the fiscal year that just concluded in June,
revenues deposited into the state’s general fund nearly reached
$8 billion, an increase of 18.7% over the prior year.

02

03

04

05

EXHIBIT 2
Pre-Recession Gains Return
Growth in Aggregate Wages and Proprietors Income, AZ

% change year ago
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
00

01

02

03

04

05

EXHIBIT 4
Double-Digit Gains Return

Real Estate Update

Sales & Use Tax Collections, AZ

% change year ago

The housing boom continued in the second quarter. The
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s repeat sales
index of housing prices during the second quarter was not
yet available when this was written, but an analysis by
Fannie Mae ranked Arizona as having the largest increase in
housing prices during the second quarter, even higher than
California and Nevada. This fits with our view that “hot
money” has been spilling out of Southern California and Las
Vegas as “investors” search for “undiscovered” markets.
According to Fannie Mae, housing prices in Arizona
exploded at a 48.6% annual rate in the second quarter, and
were 34.5% higher than one year earlier. Those are the
kinds of increases seen in Las Vegas a year ago, which has
since cooled.
This same report shows that over the past five years, prices
have risen by 129.1% in California, 106.7% in Nevada, but
only 73.3% in Arizona. From investors’ point of view,
Arizona real estate is still “cheap,” which means the price

General Fund (year on year growth)

20

15

10

5

0

-5
00

01

02

03

As interest rates rise, the carrying cost on this mountain of
debt will force consumers to curtail their spending. That will
affect the retail category. The boom in housing prices also
will ebb, therein removing this source of ready cash. New
construction will soon peak and the contracting tax will flatten, but likely not decline. The last decline in contracting
collections came in FY 2003 (-2.2%). The largest decline
occurred in FY 1988 (-8.6%).
The bottom line is, a booming economy coupled with onetime anomalies in the revenue collection system, produced
some really eye-popping increases in state revenue collections. Going forward, the economy is due to slow down, the
frenzy in real estate will evaporate, the effects of under
withholding will end, and corporate income taxes most likely
will decline. That puts overall revenue growth well back into
single digits.
How will lawmakers respond to the recent surprise? Will
they enact permanent tax cuts again, as they did during the
second half of the 1990’s, which required draconian cuts to
state budgets when revenues streams ebbed? Or will they
restore the state’s budget stabilization fund in preparation
for the next economic down cycle?

04

05

Aggregate wage and salary disbursements are
being powered by robust increases in wage rates
and strong employment growth.

3.

run-up may still have a ways to go. There are some reports
of buyer resistance and a little less frenzy so far in the
summer quarter, but inventories of both new and resale
homes remain at record lows. The boom in real estate
continues for now.

it’s possible that oil prices could move toward $100 per barrel, inflation could be much
worse, the dollar could enter a free fall, and interest rates could climb well above our base
forecast. That would precipitate a crash in home building and consumer finances. The
Arizona economy would slip into a “growth recession” in the second half of next year. By
the end of 2007, the economy would accelerate again as grow rates return to “trend.”

The Outlook

The 30-year Forecast

During the second half, we expect the current boom phase in
Arizona’s economy to recede to a pace more in line with
trend growth, as consumers are forced to reign in their
spending and as the housing boom fades. We don’t expect a
“bursting of the bubble” in home building, just a retreat from
today’s supercharged environment to a more sustainable
pace based on fundamentals. Look for 116,000 new jobs to
be created this year, then closer to 110,000 next year. In
percentage terms, that’s in the 4.5% to 5.0% range. Retail
sales will slow from an 8.8% gain this year to near six percent next year. Population growth will settle near 200,000
each year.
Given the devastation in the Gulf from Hurricane Katrina,

In 2004, Arizona was the 18th largest state, right behind Missouri, Tennessee,
Washington, and Indiana, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. One year later, with over
6 million residents, Arizona surpassed Missouri and Tennessee, and by 2007 will overtake
the other two. By 2015 Arizona will have added another 2.1 million people, which will
push it past Massachusetts and Virginia. Thirty years from now, nearly 15 million people
will call Arizona home. That’s more people than today’s Pennsylvania and Illinois (currently
6th and 5th largest, respectively).
Factors that attract newcomers, particularly retirees, include low taxes, cheap real
estate (relative to states like California that send large numbers of people to Arizona), a
warm climate, quality health care, and outdoor recreational opportunities. The numbers of
people moving to Arizona are expected to increase as upwardly-mobile Baby Boomers
begin to retire.
Forecasts for selected measures are contained in Exhibit 6 and on page 5. ■

EXHIBIT 5
General Funds Collections

EXHIBIT 6
Forecasts Through 2035

Sales and Use Taxes, Selected Categories
percent change FY 2005

Contracting
Bed, hotel/motel
Use tax
Restaurant & bar
Retail sales
Amusements
Utilities
Printing
Publishing
Communications
Rentals, personal
Total, above categories

% chg
21.2
12.6
11.8
10.1
9.2
7.1
6.0
5.0
4.5
4.3
2.0
11.0

% of total
19.1
2.1
7.2
8.1
47.1
0.9
8.2
0.4
0.2
3.5
3.3
100.0

2005 2010

2015

2020

2025

Arizona
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

6030
2491
179
72

7031
2957
263
96

8165
3508
394
134

9527
4265
609
193

11080 12850 14867
5123 6132 7299
922 1393 2086
272
382
532

Metro Phoenix
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

3886
1763
125
50

4542
2071
183
67

5296
2430
271
92

6180
2878
408
132

7184
3385
662
187

8344
4004
921
271

9686
4734
1387
395

Metro Tucson
Population (000s)
Nonfarm Jobs (000s)
Personal Income ($ bil)
Retail Sales ($ bil)

956
374
26
11

1078
421
37
14

1204
468
52
17

1328
521
73
22

1442
573
101
29

1550
630
141
37

1653
690
195
47

Housing prices exploded in the second quarter as “hot” money
poured into Arizona’s “cheap” market.
4.

2030

2035

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S

2005
178,968
9.3
40,101
5.1
72,465
9.5
6,030.2
3.4
87,574
2.2
2,491.2
4.9
397.0
5.8
2,094.4
4.7
486.3
5.3
360.5
8.1
250.6
3.7
412.2
3.0

2006
194,564
8.7
41,875
4.4
76,882
6.1
6,232.0
3.3
81,478
-7.0
2,601.7
4.4
412.0
3.8
2,189.9
4.6
507.6
4.4
385.9
7.0
259.5
3.5
426.8
3.5

2007
208,743
7.3
43,654
4.2
80,753
5.0
6,428.6
3.2
78,868
-3.2
2,687.0
3.3
419.4
1.8
2,267.8
3.6
523.6
3.1
402.7
4.4
267.0
2.9
437.6
2.5

2008
225,031
7.8
45,641
4.6
85,259
5.6
6,623.1
3.0
78,053
-1.0
2,772.5
3.2
426.4
1.7
2,346.4
3.5
540.6
3.2
421.0
4.5
275.7
3.2
446.2
2.0

2009
243,144
8.0
47,734
4.6
90,591
6.3
6,824.1
3.0
80,417
3.0
2,864.4
3.3
435.5
2.1
2,429.2
3.5
559.3
3.5
440.7
4.7
284.4
3.2
455.9
2.2

2010
262,538
8.0
49,853
4.4
96,308
6.3
7,031.2
3.0
82,908
3.1
2,956.9
3.2
446.4
2.5
2,510.7
3.4
577.8
3.3
459.6
4.3
292.3
2.8
467.1
2.5

2011
283,622
8.0
52,039
4.4
102,598
6.5
7,243.6
3.0
85,052
2.6
3,051.3
3.2
459.5
2.9
2,592.0
3.2
595.9
3.1
479.7
4.4
299.8
2.6
479.5
2.6

124,651
9.4
46,058
5.1
50,089
10.4
3,886.0
3.8
66,988
2.6
1,762.6
4.9
285.5
5.1
1,477.1
4.8
355.7
4.3
292.7
8.8
171.1
5.0
228.7
3.1

135,213
8.5
48,182
4.6
52,988
5.8
4,015.9
3.3
58,540
-12.6
1,834.0
4.1
291.7
2.1
1,542.4
4.4
369.3
3.8
309.4
5.7
177.5
3.8
235.9
3.2

145,302
7.5
50,445
4.7
55,750
5.2
4,141.7
3.1
49,899
-14.8
1,889.7
3.0
290.7
-0.3
1,599.1
3.7
380.8
3.1
322.8
4.3
183.0
3.1
241.4
2.3

156,705
7.8
52,940
4.9
59,079
6.0
4,269.2
3.1
50,556
1.3
1,943.4
2.8
291.3
0.2
1,652.1
3.3
392.7
3.1
334.0
3.5
189.7
3.7
245.9
1.9

169,386
8.1
55,503
4.8
62,841
6.4
4,403.1
3.1
53,088
5.0
2,005.5
3.2
298.7
2.5
1,706.8
3.3
405.4
3.2
345.4
3.4
196.4
3.5
251.0
2.1

183,052
8.1
58,110
4.7
66,606
6.0
4,541.8
3.1
55,008
3.6
2,071.2
3.3
307.5
2.9
1,763.8
3.3
418.0
3.1
358.1
3.7
202.0
2.9
257.1
2.5

197,292
7.8
60,801
4.6
70,556
5.9
4,682.1
3.1
55,653
1.2
2,133.1
3.0
315.7
2.7
1,817.5
3.0
430.0
2.9
371.6
3.8
207.0
2.4
263.8
2.6

26,548
8.0
38,278
4.9
10,765
8.7
956.1
2.7
11,445
9.9
373.6
4.0
56.3
4.0
317.3
3.9
60.5
4.6
44.8
5.3
41.8
6.9
79.8
0.5

28,664
8.0
39,907
4.3
11,320
5.2
981.5
2.7
10,834
-5.3
386.6
3.5
58.8
4.5
327.7
3.3
62.3
2.9
48.1
7.4
43.4
3.9
81.0
1.6

30,555
6.6
41,498
4.0
11,786
4.1
1005.4
2.4
9,425
-13.0
396.2
2.5
59.7
1.4
336.5
2.7
63.6
2.1
51.0
5.9
44.6
2.8
82.1
1.4

32,605
6.7
43,156
4.0
12,338
4.7
1029.2
2.4
9,356
-0.7
404.6
2.1
59.9
0.3
344.8
2.5
64.9
2.1
53.2
4.3
45.9
2.9
83.3
1.5

34,760
6.6
44,823
3.9
12,912
4.7
1053.5
2.4
9,588
2.5
413.1
2.1
60.6
1.2
352.5
2.2
66.2
2.0
54.9
3.2
47.1
2.6
84.5
1.5

37,016
6.5
46,509
3.8
13,512
4.6
1078.2
2.3
9,743
1.6
421.2
2.0
61.6
1.7
359.6
2.0
67.4
1.8
56.4
2.7
48.0
2.0
85.8
1.5

39,408
6.5
48,272
3.8
14,143
4.7
1102.7
2.3
9,669
-0.8
428.9
1.8
62.6
1.6
366.3
1.9
68.5
1.7
58.2
3.3
48.9
1.7
86.7
1.0

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

New Leadership
at the Eller Helm
By Eric Van Meter
Eller College Marketing Writer
As the new dean of the Eller College of
Management, Dr. Paul Portney brings a combination of leadership experience and fresh perspective to The University of Arizona.
The Eller College of Management offers many of
The University of Arizona’s most sought after
degrees. Some 5,000 students pursue undergraduate and graduate degrees each year in studies
such as management information systems (a top5 program nationally), entrepreneurship (ranked
#2 nationwide by Entrepreneur magazine), or the
Eller MBA, rated a top-50 program for twelve consecutive years by U.S. News & World Report.
With a reputation like that to uphold, the
search for a new dean to lead the Eller College
was not an easy one. The position requires someone who can bridge the worlds of academia and
business, someone seasoned in governance and
driven by innovation, a person UA president Peter
Likins describes as one who can provide “forwardlooking leadership with a combination of talent
and experience.” The Eller College found all of this
and more in Dr. Paul Portney, who took the helm
as dean in July 2005.
Before joining the Eller College, Portney worked
with Resources for the Future (RFF), a
Washington, D.C.-based independent, non-partisan think tank that specializes in issues around
natural resources and the environment. Portney
joined RFF in 1972 after earning a B.A. in economics from Michigan’s Alma College and a Ph.D.
in economics from Northwestern University. He
led two of RFF’s three research divisions before
becoming vice president of the organization in

1989. He served as RFF’s president from 1995
until assuming deanship of the Eller College
July 2005.
No stranger to academics, Portney taught public
policy and public finance as a visiting professor at
the University of California at Berkeley in 1977.
From 1992 to 1995, he was a visiting lecturer at
Princeton University, teaching environmental
economics and policy. Between these
appointments, from 1979 to 1980, Portney served
as chief economist for the White House Council

on Environmental Quality, providing thenPresident Jimmy Carter with information about the
economic impact and social benefits of
environmental regulatory measures. In fact,
Portney notes that many of the issues confronting
the President then—soaring energy prices, for
example, and the debate over commercial
development in the Alaskan wilderness—are front
and center once again.
Despite his impressive history of accomplishment, Portney maintains a humble enthusiasm
towards the challenges he faces at the Eller
College. “I’m mindful of the fact that while I have
experience in some of the areas that would make a
dean successful at Eller, I have not been a dean
before,” he explains. “I realize that Eller is taking a
bit of a chance on me—I both appreciate that and
fully intend to show the academic and business
communities that they were right in doing so.”
Having grown up in the Midwest, lived in
Washington, D.C. almost exclusively since 1971,
and spent not more than 18 days in Arizona in his
entire life (nine of them on a raft splashing down
the Colorado River), the move to Tucson and the
Eller College represents a tremendous change for
Portney, both personally and professionally—one
he welcomes. “I had been in my previous position
for a long time,” Portney explains, “and while I
enjoyed it immensely, I was open to a new and
exciting opportunity.”
The role of dean of the Eller College fit that bill.
“I love education, and I love research,” Portney
notes. “I wanted to go to a serious research university, which The University of Arizona certainly
is, and a college with a real commitment to quality
teaching. Eller also has a very sophisticated and
enthusiastic group of alumni and supporters who
want to see it get even better and who are willing
to work to help make that happen. All the pieces
are in place to make this already great College
even better!”

5,000 students seek Eller College degrees in highly ranked programs
such as MIS, entrepreneurship, and the Eller MBA each year.
6.

5

“All the pieces are in place to make this
already great College even better.”
— Paul Portney

7.

Phoenix and Tucson
Among Best Cities
for Business
By Heather L. Peterson
Research Specialist
Phoenix ranks as the 6th best large city for doing business,
according to Joel Kotkin, Senior Fellow at the Davenport Institute
for Public Policy at Pepperdine University in his Inc. Magazine
article “The Best Places For Doing Business in America 2005”
(May 2005). Ranked 12th in last year’s study, 6th placed Phoenix
is preceded by two western cities, Riverside-San Bernardino, CA,
the top ranking MSA (metropolitan statistical area) and Las
Vegas, NV, in second place, with Jacksonville, FL, and two Virginia
MSAs, completing the top 6.
The ranking is based on current and historical job growth,
which, according to Kotkin, “is the best measure of a region’s
economic vitality…” Assuming that “small businesses produce
up to 80% of the new jobs in this country,” then “a region
showing strong job growth is bound to be a hotbed of
entrepreneurial activity… strong job growth suggests that a
region’s economy is expanding.”
Kotkin used current-year employment growth numbers for 274
MSAs as well as considering average annual job growth over the
past three years and compared job growth “in the first and second halves of a period comprising the past 10 years. Job-growth
factors account for about two-thirds of each city’s final score;
the balance among industries accounts for the remainder.”
Phoenix ranked 16th in best overall cities for doing business,
following Western cities Reno, NV (1st), Boise City, ID (2nd),
Casper, WY (3rd), Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (6th), Missoula,
MT (8th), and Las Vegas, NV (14th). Tucson ranked 60th among
all cities.
The authors observe that the “economies of most big cities are
idling. The real entrepreneurial hotbeds are now on the periphery—where low costs make it possible to thrive in a tough global
economy.” Although cities like New York, Boston, and San

8.

TABLE 1: INC. MAGAZINE’S BEST CITIES
FOR DOING BUSINESS MAY 2005
NATIONAL RANK
1
2
3
6
8
14
16
22
27
30
31
40
41
43
48
51
52
58
60

WESTERN CITIES
Reno
Boise City
Casper
Riverside-San Bernardino
Missoula
Las Vegas
Phoenix
San Diego
Amarillo
Bakersfield
Salt Lake City-Ogden
Bryan-College Station
Longview-Marshall
Stockton
Orange County
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc
Provo-Orem
Las Cruces
Tucson

STATE

JOBS*

NV
ID
WY
CA
MT
NV
AZ
CA
TX
CA
UT
TX
TX
CA
CA
CA
UT
NM
AZ

209.2
238.5
35.7
1107.5
54.5
862.4
1642.5
1259.9
100.8
206.4
719.1
79.2
94.4
201.7
1431.6
168.7
156.2
62.6
345.1

* 2004 Nonfarm Employment (1000s)
Francisco still attract many of the best and the brightest when they are in their 20s and
early 30s, the authors suggest that there has been a decade long trend of people, as they
get older and start families, to move away from large urban centers to suburbs or to smaller cities like Riverside-San Bernardino, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. They note that “between
2000 and 2003, for example, New York experienced a net out-migration of some 469,000
native-born citizens [while] Las Vegas and greater Phoenix, by contrast, each added
130,000 people over the same period.” This has lead to strong job growth and expanding
economies in these and similar cities.
To read the entire article, or for more details please visit Inc. Magazine’s website at
www.inc.com/magazine/20050501/bestcities.html

Small businesses produce up to 80% of the new jobs
and a region showing strong job growth is bound to be a
hot bed of entrepreneurial activity.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

20,150
17,950
2,200
10.9

20,350
18,150
2,200
10.8

20,150
18,100
2,050
10.2

20,575
17,950
2,625
12.8

20,550
17,550
3,000
14.6

1.1
1.7
-2.4
-3.5

0.1
1.3
-8.5
-8.6

19,800
6,550
650
19,150
1,850
4,050
13,250
3,100
10,150

19,975
6,675
650
19,325
1,850
4,175
13,300
3,125
10,175

19,975
6,725
700
19,275
1,850
4,175
13,250
3,250
10,000

19,250
6,700
725
18,525
1,925
4,050
12,550
3,350
9,200

18,875
6,575
725
18,150
1,850
4,000
12,300
3,175
9,125

4.3
4.8
3.6
4.3
-1.3
8.1
4.0
10.4
2.0

2.0
0.4
-12.5
2.6
-1.2
3.8
2.8
4.5
2.3

11,615
5,425
785
5,405
2,569
6,865
985

11,272
4,530
820
5,922
2,479
5,511
743

12,166
5,269
982
5,915
2,584
5,667
1,191

15,671
8,899
916
5,855
2,636
5,953
1,145

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

27.5
45.1
-4.6
12.6
2.4
19.1
16.9

9.4
8.1
6.9
11.2
-0.9
9.0
19.6

-2.0
-1.6
-6.2
-4.4

Note: As of Jan 2005, Apache County
no longer reports monthly permits.

36,575
33,400
3,175
8.7

37,000
33,950
3,050
8.2

37,350
34,500
2,850
7.6

38,075
34,850
3,225
8.5

38,150
34,425
3,725
9.8

0.5
1.0
-3.9
-4.3

28,275
17,475
3,100
2,250
850
25,175
5,375
625
550
1,175
3,175
2,700
775
10,800
1,450
9,350

28,650
17,875
3,175
2,300
875
25,475
5,475
625
525
1,200
3,175
2,925
775
10,775
1,475
9,300

29,250
18,225
3,250
2,375
875
26,000
5,575
625
525
1,175
3,125
3,150
800
11,025
1,675
9,350

28,825
18,300
3,375
2,475
900
25,450
5,600
675
525
1,225
2,900
3,200
800
10,525
1,750
8,775

28,600
18,575
3,450
2,550
900
25,150
5,650
675
525
1,200
2,975
3,275
825
10,025
1,575
8,450

2.9
2.3
2.2
3.0
0.0
3.0
0.9
3.8
-4.5
6.7
7.2
0.0
3.1
3.9
3.3
4.0

-0.7
0.2
-0.4
-2.4
5.5
-0.7
-0.2
1.0
-18.9
11.2
2.3
0.8
-3.8
-2.1
-4.3
-1.7

70,448
52,402
5,737
12,309
5,850
12,444
2,007

74,906
55,434
6,115
13,357
5,591
14,143
2,325

80,724
59,825
7,102
13,797
6,029
15,820
2,838

85,701
64,762
7,768
13,171
5,930
23,196
2,670

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.0
7.1
9.8
-0.9
-9.8
47.6
-13.7

8.4
8.2
6.9
10.2
-2.2
14.4
2.3

47
47

50
50

42
42

81
81

34
34

-32.0
-32.0

16.9
9.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

12,625
11,825
800
6.3

12,750
11,925
825
6.5

12,750
12,000
750
5.9

12,725
11,950
775
6.1

12,700
11,825
875
6.9

2.6
2.8
0.0
-2.6

3.2
4.0
-7.7
-10.6

7,850
4,475
550
7,300
1,400
2,525
3,375
300
3,075

7,850
4,425
550
7,300
1,400
2,475
3,425
300
3,125

7,850
4,475
575
7,275
1,400
2,500
3,375
300
3,075

7,425
4,425
575
6,850
1,400
2,450
3,000
325
2,675

7,400
4,450
575
6,825
1,400
2,475
2,950
350
2,600

3.5
0.0
4.5
3.4
-1.8
0.0
9.3
7.7
9.5

6.8
-1.3
0.8
7.3
-3.2
-0.7
20.2
-0.7
22.9

18,116
14,518
1,574
2,024
962
2,576

17,479
13,751
1,597
2,130
892
2,318

17,775
14,168
1,477
2,130
931
2,138

18,158
14,649
1,672
1,837
827
2,363

...
...
...
...
...
...

10.1
9.5
27.3
1.4
-7.8
-12.9

11.4
9.4
15.4
23.4
9.7
-2.3

67,300
63,800
3,500
5.2

67,900
64,500
3,400
5.0

67,900
64,800
3,100
4.6

70,300
66,800
3,500
5.0

70,400
66,400
4,000
5.7

1.6
1.8
-2.4
-4.0

2.9
3.6
-8.6
-11.2

61,600
42,600
7,300
3,700
3,600
54,300
9,100
500
1,600
3,500
7,000
11,800
1,800
19,000
3,000
16,000

62,300
43,600
7,500
3,800
3,700
54,800
9,400
500
1,600
3,500
7,100
12,200
1,800
18,700
3,000
15,700

62,900
44,600
7,600
3,900
3,700
55,300
9,300
500
1,600
3,500
7,100
13,200
1,800
18,300
3,200
15,100

63,500
45,300
7,600
3,900
3,700
55,900
9,500
500
1,600
3,600
7,000
13,600
1,900
18,200
3,400
14,800

63,100
45,400
7,800
4,100
3,700
55,300
9,500
500
1,600
3,500
6,900
13,800
1,800
17,700
3,100
14,600

3.8
5.6
16.4
17.1
15.6
2.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
2.9
6.2
6.2
-5.3
-0.6
-6.1
0.7

4.8
6.4
18.0
17.4
18.7
3.2
1.2
9.1
-1.0
5.1
2.6
8.5
2.8
1.1
-3.8
2.2

119,814
77,069
23,664
19,081
9,068
22,779
14,829

121,805
75,942
24,372
21,491
8,996
20,732
15,844

132,434
82,987
26,911
22,536
9,847
18,740
19,461

148,295
94,394
31,760
22,141
9,969
29,125
23,728

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.7
5.9
17.6
2.9
-6.4
5.5
12.9

4.9
2.7
8.6
10.6
-1.4
-8.8
5.9

54
54

50
48

80
80

145
75

64
64

-39.0
-39.0

-32.9
-22.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

3,600
3,400
200
5.6

3,650
3,450
200
5.5

3,625
3,450
175
4.8

3,650
3,450
200
5.5

3,625
3,425
200
5.5

2.8
3.0
0.0
-2.8

2.9
4.1
-15.7
-18.0

3,650
3,125
2,600
1,050
225
300
525
50
475

3,650
3,125
2,600
1,050
250
275
525
50
475

3,650
3,150
2,625
1,025
225
300
500
50
450

3,750
3,250
2,700
1,050
250
300
500
50
450

3,775
3,275
2,725
1,050
250
300
500
50
450

7.9
10.1
11.2
0.0
11.1
0.0
-4.8
0.0
-5.3

4.9
6.2
8.4
-2.9
2.8
-7.7
-2.4
9.5
-3.4

9,233
8,405
236
592
281
320
240

8,835
8,015
188
632
265
705
342

6,017
5,168
276
572
250
1,303
311

9,757
8,912
236
609
274
1,049
367

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-12.1
-14.5
0.4
37.0
24.7
47.2
-12.9

18.1
18.0
0.5
29.4
14.7
-29.8
-6.2

88,100
84,500
3,600
4.1

89,400
85,700
3,700
4.1

88,500
85,200
3,300
3.7

90,200
86,700
3,500
3.9

89,400
85,600
3,800
4.3

1.9
1.9
2.7
0.7

3.8
4.4
-9.0
-12.5

57,800
46,800
10,700
7,400
3,300
47,100
11,600
700
1,900
4,200
8,400
7,500
1,800
11,000
1,200
9,800

58,400
47,400
10,800
7,500
3,300
47,600
11,500
700
1,900
4,200
8,500
8,000
1,800
11,000
1,200
9,800

58,700
47,700
10,900
7,600
3,300
47,800
11,500
700
2,000
4,200
8,500
8,100
1,800
11,000
1,300
9,700

58,200
48,000
11,200
7,800
3,400
47,000
11,500
700
2,000
4,300
8,300
8,200
1,800
10,200
1,300
8,900

57,600
47,900
11,300
7,900
3,400
46,300
11,600
700
2,000
4,100
8,100
8,100
2,000
9,700
1,300
8,400

4.3
5.3
4.6
5.3
3.0
4.3
8.4
0.0
11.1
-2.4
2.5
6.6
11.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

5.5
6.2
7.9
10.0
3.4
5.0
9.1
2.4
3.1
4.2
3.5
6.8
-0.4
2.5
4.8
2.2

159,634
122,361
20,767
16,506
7,844
58,286
8,893

161,410
121,504
21,240
18,666
7,813
50,595
7,325

163,588
124,490
21,999
17,099
7,472
63,672
7,820

171,145
131,756
22,450
16,938
7,626
69,546
8,235

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.7
15.8
20.4
9.5
-0.4
24.6
18.5

13.0
13.3
11.7
12.2
-0.1
20.5
21.4

308
297

308
304

340
338

404
385

412
410

-22.0
0.0

11.0
19.9

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

19,875
18,625
1,250
6.3

20,175
18,925
1,250
6.2

20,125
18,950
1,175
5.8

20,325
19,125
1,200
5.9

20,400
19,050
1,350
6.6

-2.3
-2.2
-3.6
-1.3

-2.8
-2.1
-12.6
-10.0

13,525
8,725
2,000
11,525
2,200
4,525
4,800
450
4,350

13,700
8,850
2,050
11,650
2,250
4,550
4,850
475
4,375

13,775
8,925
2,025
11,750
2,275
4,625
4,850
500
4,350

13,550
8,950
2,050
11,500
2,275
4,625
4,600
525
4,075

13,350
8,825
1,975
11,375
2,250
4,600
4,525
525
4,000

-2.6
-2.2
-3.7
-2.4
3.4
-4.2
-3.2
-8.7
-2.4

-1.7
-0.9
-0.6
-1.9
1.7
-2.1
-3.3
-6.3
-3.0

31,347
21,063
4,100
6,184
2,939
5,791
910

33,573
22,211
4,291
7,071
2,960
6,596
934

34,052
22,402
4,405
7,245
3,166
757
1,022

37,687
25,196
5,698
6,793
3,058
6,075
1,173

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

20.6
17.4
28.4
26.7
15.3
-40.0
14.7

8.3
5.7
6.1
21.2
8.3
-13.9
6.0

85,400
81,975
3,425
4.0

86,500
83,100
3,400
3.9

85,600
82,400
3,200
3.7

87,100
83,850
3,250
3.7

87,350
83,750
3,600
4.1

3.2
3.1
5.9
2.6

3.1
3.7
-10.4
-13.1

50,950
43,325
9,975
6,250
3,725
40,975
11,375
775
2,100
3,850
6,625
6,350
2,275
7,625
525
7,100

51,450
43,900
10,150
6,350
3,800
41,300
11,550
775
2,175
3,925
6,625
6,425
2,275
7,550
525
7,025

51,350
43,775
10,000
6,250
3,750
41,350
11,575
775
2,175
3,925
6,650
6,400
2,275
7,575
550
7,025

51,025
44,000
10,175
6,450
3,725
40,850
11,600
800
2,200
4,025
6,525
6,400
2,275
7,025
550
6,475

50,675
43,850
10,100
6,425
3,675
40,575
11,650
800
2,150
3,900
6,500
6,500
2,250
6,825
550
6,275

4.9
5.1
2.8
4.0
0.7
5.5
8.4
-5.9
4.9
4.0
7.0
5.7
-1.1
3.8
0.0
4.1

4.2
5.5
4.3
2.9
6.7
4.2
7.6
-5.7
8.5
8.0
6.6
4.1
-0.4
-2.8
2.0
-3.2

167,640
125,923
17,924
23,793
11,307
58,954
4,740

169,636
124,492
18,433
26,711
11,181
47,464
4,434

168,889
124,695
17,572
26,623
11,633
52,309
4,377

173,935
129,213
17,883
26,839
12,084
60,193
4,282

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

18.7
16.7
19.6
28.8
17.2
26.6
-5.4

15.0
13.3
13.9
25.9
12.2
32.2
6.8

371
360

385
371

418
406

350
340

299
295

-21.3
-13.2

20.7
26.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
12.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

7,575
7,075
500
6.6

7,550
7,050
500
6.6

7,750
7,275
475
6.1

8,100
7,575
525
6.5

8,025
7,450
575
7.2

5.2
4.6
15.0
9.3

-0.2
0.0
-3.7
-3.5

5,350
3,100
400
4,950
1,300
1,400
2,250
200
2,050

5,300
3,075
450
4,850
1,325
1,300
2,225
200
2,025

5,325
3,100
450
4,875
1,350
1,300
2,225
225
2,000

5,375
3,125
425
4,950
1,375
1,325
2,250
225
2,025

5,400
3,125
425
4,975
1,375
1,325
2,275
200
2,075

4.9
8.7
6.3
4.7
7.8
10.4
0.0
0.0
0.0

3.0
6.0
2.8
3.0
4.3
8.8
-0.6
3.1
-1.0

22,757
11,506
4,366
6,885
3,272
1,229
527

18,544
10,166
1,756
6,622
2,772
2,141
392

17,507
9,036
2,172
6,299
2,752
1,749
486

18,219
10,423
1,960
5,836
2,628
2,806
486

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

11.5
16.1
7.3
5.3
-4.2
16.8
4.8

17.2
16.3
7.8
23.1
10.0
-28.2
6.1

76,000
68,100
7,900
10.4

76,600
64,900
11,700
15.3

81,100
66,100
15,000
18.5

82,100
67,600
14,500
17.7

82,000
64,500
17,500
21.3

6.5
6.6
6.1
-0.4

3.9
5.1
-2.6
-6.5

54,900
40,000
8,100
4,900
3,200
46,800
12,000
1,200
1,500
3,400
6,500
5,600
1,700
14,900
3,000
11,900

52,200
37,400
7,300
5,000
2,300
44,900
10,400
1,200
1,500
3,400
6,400
5,500
1,700
14,800
3,000
11,800

51,200
36,600
7,100
5,000
2,100
44,100
10,100
1,200
1,500
3,300
6,300
5,400
1,700
14,600
3,100
11,500

50,800
36,800
7,300
5,200
2,100
43,500
10,000
1,200
1,500
3,400
6,400
5,300
1,700
14,000
3,100
10,900

49,100
36,300
7,200
5,200
2,000
41,900
9,800
1,200
1,500
3,400
6,300
5,200
1,700
12,800
3,100
9,700

7.0
8.4
-4.0
15.6
-33.3
9.1
14.0
9.1
7.1
9.7
8.6
15.6
13.3
3.2
6.9
2.1

8.6
8.6
9.3
21.0
-7.4
8.5
12.4
7.6
4.2
-3.9
9.1
10.1
9.3
8.5
4.4
9.7

158,834
121,142
16,603
21,089
10,022
39,148
4,339

126,594
93,924
13,684
18,986
7,947
37,345
3,596

120,494
88,899
12,800
18,795
8,212
34,545
3,161

123,428
92,326
13,228
17,874
8,047
42,100
2,741

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

20.1
20.7
17.6
18.9
8.2
8.6
21.5

16.2
16.6
12.8
16.9
3.8
29.7
10.9

159
159

219
214

179
179

208
203

183
178

8.9
6.0

1.4
1.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

15,825
14,675
1,150
7.3

15,800
14,675
1,125
7.1

15,675
14,550
1,125
7.2

16,025
14,700
1,325
8.3

16,075
14,250
1,825
11.4

3.9
5.2
-5.2
-8.7

2.4
3.4
-7.4
-9.4

13,075
9,800
1,025
12,050
5,425
3,350
3,275
1,150
2,125

13,025
9,725
1,025
12,000
5,350
3,350
3,300
1,175
2,125

12,950
9,650
1,025
11,925
5,275
3,350
3,300
1,200
2,100

12,775
9,500
1,025
11,750
5,150
3,325
3,275
1,200
2,075

12,400
9,425
1,000
11,400
5,150
3,275
2,975
1,200
1,775

7.6
9.6
2.6
8.1
16.4
2.3
1.7
2.1
1.4

4.8
6.9
-0.8
5.3
9.2
6.1
-1.1
2.6
-3.0

40,032
30,345
3,650
6,037
2,869
5,410
1,397

37,397
28,341
3,361
5,695
2,384
5,752
1,331

38,707
29,634
3,159
5,914
2,584
4,569
973

38,139
29,852
2,846
5,440
2,449
5,928
1,021

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

17.4
20.9
-8.0
15.7
5.3
-13.0
16.9

11.4
12.1
2.4
13.4
0.8
-11.8
11.3

59
59

53
50

62
59

52
52

45
45

15.4
25.0

15.6
17.1

55,150
52,450
2,700
4.9

55,425
52,700
2,725
4.9

55,200
52,700
2,500
4.5

56,000
53,375
2,625
4.7

55,850
52,950
2,900
5.2

2.6
2.5
4.5
1.8

2.1
2.6
-7.8
-9.7

36,300
24,525
3,725
2,900
20,800
6,350
900
3,800
3,900
4,200
1,125
11,775
4,825
6,950
4,825
6,950

36,350
24,550
3,825
2,975
850
32,525
6,225
525
900
3,800
3,975
4,200
1,100
11,800
4,850
6,950

36,400
24,575
3,825
3,000
825
32,575
6,200
525
925
3,825
3,975
4,175
1,125
11,825
4,875
6,950

36,025
24,575
3,850
3,000
850
32,175
6,250
525
950
3,800
4,000
4,075
1,125
11,450
4,900
6,550

35,950
24,600
3,925
3,075
850
32,025
6,200
525
1,000
3,800
3,950
4,075
1,125
11,350
4,925
6,425

4.5
4.5
16.3
21.8
0.0
3.2
0.8
-4.5
8.1
4.8
1.9
3.2
2.3
4.6
2.6
6.2

3.8
4.3
11.4
14.0
398.3
-10.9
-12.6
111.3
55.0
4.1
-7.3
37.2
57.9
-4.2
3.1
2.8

85,606
65,904
9,480
10,222
4,858
19,480
3,585

78,248
58,298
9,424
10,526
4,406
18,206
3,099

78,990
59,394
9,091
10,506
4,590
19,449
2,693

84,550
64,394
8,712
11,443
5,152
19,808
2,517

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.6
15.8
-3.2
25.5
14.1
11.4
23.4

6.2
3.2
3.2
29.7
16.5
6.4
8.5

180
180

125
125

112
110

83
83

39
39

-57.6
-57.6

26.8
26.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

444.5
425.1
19.4
4.3

447.7
428.0
19.7
4.7

441.9
423.5
18.4
4.5

443.1
424.0
19.1
4.1

439.6
418.4
21.2
4.6

1.7
1.7
2.9
2.2

2.1
2.7
-9.4
-10.8

371.1
1.5
25.6
28.3
4.9
11.1
8.4
42.1
8.4
7.2
17.9
43.2
49.3
5.6
8.3
27.4
14.9
10.2
72.8
48.3

373.1
1.5
26.0
28.2
4.8
11.0
8.4
42.1
8.4
7.2
18.2
43.8
49.4
5.6
8.4
27.6
15.1
10.2
73.0
48.4

373.0
1.5
26.2
28.3
4.9
11.0
8.6
42.4
8.6
7.2
18.3
43.0
49.5
5.5
8.6
27.3
15.0
10.2
72.8
48.1

365.8
1.5
26.6
28.6
4.9
11.1
8.6
42.8
8.6
7.1
18.2
43.3
49.4
5.5
8.3
26.4
15.0
10.2
65.7
40.4

360.1
1.3
26.8
28.5
5.0
11.1
8.6
42.8
8.6
7.1
18.5
43.8
49.4
5.3
8.0
25.9
15.0
10.1
60.4
35.0

4.0
0.0
12.1
-0.3
-2.0
-1.8
2.4
4.9
3.6
-6.6
12.8
3.5
4.4
8.2
12.7
3.2
1.4
4.1
1.2
1.7

3.4
15.5
7.9
-0.2
-3.6
-2.2
7.9
4.2
3.7
-3.1
9.6
2.5
5.1
3.3
9.7
3.2
1.6
4.5
0.5
0.8

940,672
620,271
122,984
119,506
77,910
170,903
45,611

903,653
582,653
125,535
113,794
81,670
171,663
36,065

900,170
587,243
123,963
109,949
79,014
184,595
25,550

921,174
625,536
121,856
100,622
73,159
183,880
26,555

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.4
16.9
11.8
7.2
20.8
15.0
38.8

8.5
7.3
8.9
10.4
15.4
12.0
16.9

1,189
1,056
133

1,086
964
123

1,062
957
105

1,323
1,178
146

1,051
928
123

-12.4
5.8
-61.8

18.5
17.1
32.7

363,510
1,525
238,367

367,270
1,489
246,656

434,585
1,679
258,835

497,024
1,858
267,505

412,306
1,584
260,294

32.4
3.5
27.9

35.0
11.8
20.9

400,962
24,539

355,826
24,091

352,139
22,963

328,848
23,835

339,066
22,834

11.8
13.8

9.2
9.2

II
2004

III
2004

IV
2004

I
2005

II
2005

928.5
1.3
3.2
1.9
4.2

934.4
1.3
3.3
1.9
4.6

940.6
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

946.8
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

953.0
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.9

2.6
0.2
1.4
2.1
17.6

2.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
29.2

24,327
16,789
1,911
114
4,883
4,451
26,201

24,805
17,153
1,957
117
4,955
4,538
26,546

25,311
17,552
2,004
120
5,009
4,635
26,910

25,810
17,946
2,050
123
5,060
4,731
27,260

26,302
18,329
2,096
126
5,120
4,823
27,599

8.1
9.2
9.6
10.1
4.8
8.4
5.3

7.5
8.2
9.1
8.7
5.6
7.6
4.9

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2005

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

15.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

MAR
2005

APR
2005

1,868.4
1,790.1
78.3
4.2

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

1,884.2
1,805.3
78.9
4.4

1,868.5
1,794.3
74.2
4.2

1,888.6
1,813.9
74.7
3.8

1,895.5
1,813.6
81.9
4.2

2.0
2.1
-1.0
-4.5

2.2
2.9
-12.0
-14.2

1,728.7
2.2
150.2
103.1
13.5
37.6
15.2
27.1
79.0
208.7
7.8
52.9
34.3
105.5
34.6
278.1
30.4
149.8
22.8
27.9
118.2
64.6
22.1
209.4
110.6

1,738.2
2.3
152.7
103.3
13.5
37.7
15.3
27.2
79.0
209.0
7.8
52.9
34.7
106.4
34.8
281.1
31.3
150.2
22.8
28.4
118.1
63.8
22.1
210.3
110.8

1,741.8
2.3
154.4
103.6
13.7
37.9
15.2
27.0
79.3
210.1
7.8
52.9
34.9
106.9
34.9
280.1
31.2
150.7
22.5
28.7
118.2
64.0
22.0
210.3
110.1

1,722.7
2.4
157.5
103.9
13.8
38.3
15.3
27.1
79.4
211.9
7.9
53.0
34.5
107.1
35.0
280.8
30.3
151.1
21.9
28.0
115.9
64.3
21.9
188.8
87.5

1,714.7
1.7
159.5
104.1
13.7
38.6
15.3
26.8
79.0
213.5
8.0
53.2
34.3
107.4
35.0
281.8
28.7
151.0
21.0
27.3
113.3
65.4
21.8
181.9
80.7

4.3
-19.0
12.7
-0.2
3.0
-0.5
4.8
0.0
0.4
8.2
0.0
1.7
-5.0
3.7
2.9
3.3
12.5
4.1
4.5
4.6
3.8
1.9
0.5
4.3
7.2

4.0
9.7
10.7
-0.2
3.9
-1.9
4.0
0.4
1.3
5.6
-0.2
2.1
-5.4
2.6
2.9
4.9
13.4
4.1
3.6
3.3
3.6
0.9
2.1
3.5
4.3

4,442,567
3,055,311
545,321
524,756
317,179
1,090,141
217,012

4,246,000
2,824,385
556,633
532,202
332,780
1,045,718
137,414

4,220,377
2,844,227
549,661
496,522
329,966
1,129,206
103,027

4,339,434
3,011,668
540,321
482,403
305,042
1,254,685
73,782

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

16.7
17.5
13.8
13.8
18.6
36.4
9.5

11.2
10.8
10.8
10.7
17.3
27.2
13.7

5,017
4,474
158
385

6,078
4,644
44
1,390

4,988
4,655
52
281

5,743
5,188
56
499

5,100
4,229
176
695

-27.5
-32.8
61.5
8.9

-1.5
-1.2
-30.7
3.1

2,611,405
9,508
274,653

2,592,396
9,123
284,160

2,872,049
9,461
303,567

3,150,939
9,861
319,535

2,845,009
9,065
313,845

46.9
4.4
40.7

42.7
17.8
20.3

3,799,760
48,686

3,444,413
43,087

3,550,168
44,349

3,570,023
46,839

...
...

4.1
4.5

5.9
0.7

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

16.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border
Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
II
2004

III
2004

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,725.1
3,761.1
Natural Increase
9.2
9.2
Births
15.5
15.6
Deaths
6.3
6.4
Net Migration
27.5
26.8
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
112,586
115,175
Earnings by Place of Work
90,120
92,321
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
9,963
10,228
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-46
-45
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
17,991
18,303
Plus: Transfer Payments
14,484
14,823
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
30,224
30,622
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2004

I
2005

II
2005

3,796.6
9.3
15.7
6.5
26.3

3,832.3
9.3
15.8
6.5
26.4

3,868.1
9.4
15.9
6.6
26.4

3.8
1.7
2.7
4.1
-3.9

3.9
1.6
2.5
3.7
0.9

117,936
94,740
10,500
-45
18,556
15,185
31,063

120,645
97,125
10,767
-44
18,788
15,543
31,481

123,315
99,445
11,033
-44
19,053
15,895
31,880

9.5
10.3
10.7
4.5
5.9
9.7
5.5

8.7
9.3
10.1
2.1
5.9
9.1
4.6

5,806.9
12.4
22.9
10.5
38.2

5,857.3
12.5
23.3
10.8
37.8

5,907.6
13.3
23.8
10.5
36.9

5,957.3
13.2
23.6
10.5
35.9

6,006.0
12.6
23.5
10.8
35.7

3.4
2.1
2.5
2.9
-6.4

3.5
5.8
2.7
-1.0
-4.6

161,469
123,056
13,666
609
26,640
24,832

164,448
125,845
13,966
624
26,708
25,241

170,646
129,626
14,363
644
29,119
25,624

172,850
132,984
14,904
661
27,622
26,490

177,063
136,421
15,262
679
28,009
27,219

9.7
10.9
11.7
11.4
5.1
9.6

9.0
10.0
11.0
10.2
6.0
8.6

89,192
19,376
14,411
467
13,944
27,807
37,068

91,416
19,813
14,698
468
14,230
28,075
37,637

94,145
20,325
15,143
598
14,545
28,886
38,209

96,356
20,981
15,633
647
14,986
29,015
38,684

98,748
21,572
...
...
...
29,481
...

10.7
11.3
13.4
53.7
12.1
6.0
5.2

9.8
10.6
11.1
11.2
11.1
5.3
4.8

MAR
2005

APR
2005

MAY
2005

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

1,390,477
143,595
517,851
729,031
489,771
75,090
366,497
48,184

1,559,297
149,206
554,478
855,613
347,987
64,318
247,811
35,858

1,811,231
152,464
644,092
1,014,675
188,142
30,883
105,698
51,561

2,492,620
150,888
797,838
1,543,894
135,463
22,616
70,853
41,994

2,588,357
149,330
851,679
1,587,348
136,103
22,710
74,696
38,697

10.7
-19.2
0.5
21.6
-19.0
4.7
-30.4
-1.0

1.6
-9.2
5.1
1.3
3.2
6.9
2.4
2.7

711,334
1,855,940

671,855
1,771,757

717,050
1,821,187

2,332,868
1,781,771

689,665
1,768,295

-7.5
-15.0

11.3
-9.8

193.3
188.6

194.6
190.2

194.4
190.0

194.5
190.1

195.4
191.0

3.2
3.3

3.0
3.1

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

17.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

MAR
2005

APR
2005

2,801.2
2,673.0
128.2
4.7

JUN
2005

JUL
2005

2,824.9
2,692.4
132.5
5.0

2,806.3
2,677.9
128.4
4.8

2,837.1
2,705.9
131.2
4.4

2,839.4
2,693.1
146.3
4.9

2.1
2.2
0.4
-2.0

2.2
2.9
-10.3
-11.7

2,451.5
9.0
202.9
141.8
17.6
43.3
26.7
34.8
96.9
300.3
11.4
66.3
46.0
120.9
45.7
344.5
41.3
229.5
33.4
46.0
173.8
89.8
51.0
366.2
201.1
41.5

2,463.3
9.1
206.5
141.8
17.6
43.4
26.7
34.0
95.7
300.8
11.5
66.4
46.4
122.0
45.9
348.5
42.1
230.4
33.8
46.9
174.3
89.2
51.1
366.9
201.0
41.0

2,467.1
9.2
208.8
142.0
17.7
43.6
26.7
33.8
96.0
302.3
11.5
66.4
46.6
122.4
46.1
346.4
42.2
231.1
33.8
47.4
174.4
89.5
51.8
365.4
198.2
40.7

2,437.3
9.5
212.8
142.5
17.9
44.1
27.0
33.8
96.0
304.2
11.6
66.6
46.2
122.7
46.2
347.9
40.4
231.7
33.3
46.8
171.0
89.8
52.2
332.1
162.2
40.8

2,419.9
8.3
215.4
142.6
17.8
44.3
27.0
33.6
95.2
306.0
11.7
67.0
46.0
123.0
46.4
348.9
37.8
231.9
32.2
46.1
168.6
91.1
51.6
316.5
146.3
40.3

4.2
-2.4
12.2
0.3
2.9
-0.2
2.3
-3.2
0.5
8.0
1.7
1.1
-4.8
3.7
2.7
3.9
10.5
4.9
8.4
5.5
3.4
1.6
1.8
2.7
4.8
-0.5

3.9
9.4
10.0
1.0
3.9
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
2.2
5.8
0.2
1.2
-4.9
2.3
2.8
4.8
11.0
4.5
6.7
4.3
3.5
0.8
1.3
3.0
4.2
1.7

15.58
14.43
14.70
12.05
18.59

15.58
14.73
14.72
12.13
18.75

15.94
15.01
14.69
12.13
18.94

16.03
14.94
14.70
12.13
18.71

16.13
15.15
15.00
12.32
19.27

5.8
8.5
5.0
6.4
1.9

2.0
1.8
5.7
3.6
2.7

6,428,272
4,331,646
818,274
753,137
525,216
249,603
468,466
253,662
96,616
299,845
1,494,326
91,320
305,076

6,162,432
4,023,648
835,247
751,277
552,259
231,168
459,771
257,984
91,685
274,756
1,428,889
93,727
213,843

6,143,052
4,057,439
824,787
714,416
546,410
238,753
533,003
260,048
75,882
272,329
1,534,520
98,434
172,908

6,333,886
4,311,981
810,770
698,155
512,979
230,957
690,270
256,626
71,793
295,300
1,706,706
122,071
148,691

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.7
16.9
11.0
13.0
17.6
7.0
10.7
3.8
1.6
-4.8
30.2
83.3
14.2

10.7
10.2
9.5
10.5
16.8
3.9
6.9
4.3
6.4
0.6
23.1
76.4
13.2

7,445
6,733
200
512

8,361
6,821
82
1,458

7,297
6,884
88
325

8,404
7,654
105
645

7,228
6,266
198
764

-24.0
-25.0
10.0
-22.1

4.2
4.7
-27.7
1.0

3,191
2,770
11
410

3,408
2,982
14
412

3,158
2,814
13
331

2,909
2,541
18
350

2,524
2,273
11
240

-2.3
5.7
-35.3
-42.3

1.9
5.9
-25.8
-15.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
18.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAY
2005

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2004

III
2004

IV
2004

I
2005

II
2005

193.0
188.9
184.5

193.2
189.6
185.1

194.8
190.7
186.4

195.8
191.9
187.4

198.5
194.5
190.1

2.8
2.9
3.0

2.7
3.0
3.0

108.2
107.7

108.6
108.0

109.2
108.7

109.9
109.3

110.5
110.2

2.2
2.3

2.3
2.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 16. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:

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................................................................................520.621.4050
State Data Center and Librarian ..............................Valorie Rice
................................................................................520.621.2109

Thank you to our partners for their ongoing sponsorship of Economic and Business Research Center programs.
Arizona’s Economy Sponsor:

Forecasting Project Sponsors:
Arizona Department of Commerce

City of Tucson

Pima Association of Governments

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee

Compass Bank

Pima County

Arizona Public Service Company

Elliott D. Pollack and Company

Salt River Project

Bank One

KB Home

Tucson Electric Power Company

CB Richard Ellis

Lippow Development Co.

Tucson Newspapers

City of Glendale

Maricopa Association of Governments

Tucson Regional Economic Opportunities, Inc.

City of Mesa

Pascua Yaqui Tribe

Website Sponsor:

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

19.

Perspective is Everything.
The Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index ®
(BLCI) is an excellent – and quick – way to help
business leaders like you stay ahead of the information curve, and make informed decisions. The BLCI
is compiled from a quarterly online survey completed
by business leaders across Arizona, which enables
you to tap into a valuable resource of emerging
business trends.
Please log on at www.blci.com/arizona/ and register
to become a BLCI panelist. It only takes a few
minutes and you’ll be notified by email when the
next survey opens on December 1st.
With increased participation from business leaders
like you, the BLCI will become a more valuable
planning tool for the Arizona business community.
Plus, when you participate, you receive an exclusive
preview of survey results before they are released to
the general public.
Join today!

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Economic and Business Research Center
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Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108
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