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INSIDE:
Forecast Tables – pg. 4
Arizona Economic Indicators – pg. 5
A P R I L

2 0 0 5

•

S P R I N G

Population Gains
and Real Estate
“Investors” Drive
Growth.
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
March 1, 2005

The Arizona economy continues to march
forward at a measured pace. Since the
2001 recession, population growth and
an huge inflow of money into real estate
have driven the expansion. Meanwhile,
basic industries (those that sell their
product beyond Arizona’s borders) have
been shrinking. As the year progresses, a
more balanced expansion should emerge,
and 2005 will be another solid year for
business. Risks are centered primarily on
recent overinvestment in real estate.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

I S S U E

Arizona’s population swelled by more than
200,000 people in 2004, according to estimates
produced by the Arizona Department of
Economic Security. That’s a 3.6% increase – the
largest since 1995’s 4.4% surge. As of mid-year,
over 5.8 million people now call Arizona home,
making it the 18th largest state, right behind
Missouri and Tennessee. By the middle of this
year, Arizona will overtake both states, and
Washington and Indiana in 2007 (Table 1).

TABLE 1: POPULATION ESTIMATES
Selected States,* 2004
rank
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
22.
27.
34.
35.
36.
39.
44.
51.

California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Georgia
New Jersey
North Carolina
Virginia
Massachusetts
Indiana
Washington
Tennessee
Missouri
Arizona
Colorado
Oregon
Utah
Nevada
New Mexico
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming

(million)
35.894
22.490
19.227
17.397
12.714
12.406
11.459
10.113
8.829
8.699
8.541
7.460
6.417
6.238
6.204
5.901
5.755
5.744
4.601
3.595
2.389
2.335
1.903
1.393
0.927
0.507

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
and District of Columbia*

The demand for Arizona living is propelled by
a number of factors including a desire to escape
high densities of many coastal cities as well as
last summer’s hurricanes on the east coast.
Arizona also has long been a destination of
choice for upwardly-mobile retirees because of
the mild climate and low tax burden. In Tucson,
for example, an estimated 30 percent of home
sales in recent years were to retirees. However,
the two most often mentioned
reasons for moving to Arizona
are the low cost of real estate
The two
and the availability of jobs.
The surge in population has
most often
been accompanied, as one might
mentioned
expect, by job growth in population-serving sectors. Construction
reasons for
activity is well above trend with
moving to
over 15,500 new workers added
in the past year, December to
Arizona are
December. That makes constructhe low cost
tion the largest job generator
across all sectors. In second place
of real estate
is education and health services,
and the
up 11,100, closely followed by
government, up 10,300 (with
availability
over half in the public school
of jobs.
system). Retail trade added
8,500. All of these gains are
related to more people – and
the need for more houses,
teachers for more students, and retail space for
more shoppers.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s export base continues to
languish. Manufacturing employment is down
20% from its high, and the information industry
(which includes software development, telecommunications, and publishing) continues to shed
jobs. Declines in base sectors are not good for
long-term economic vitality and prosperity.
Exhibit 1 shows job growth in export-based
and population-based sectors using a crude
approximation for each that is limited by the
available categories published as part of the
current employment survey (CES) program.
We define “export based” as simply the
sum of manufacturing, natural
resources and mining, and information. (A better label might

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be “high tech” since many of these jobs are part of
these industries). A major component of leisure
and hospitality is export-based since it serves
tourists, but it also serves locals as well, so it is
shown separately. Likewise for professional and
business services, which serves both populationserving and export-based businesses. The population-serving category is the amalgamation of
remaining sectors (that includes construction,
trade, transportation, utilities, financial activities,
educational and health services, and government).
Population serving sectors have grown by nearly
10% since early 1991 while export-based sectors
lost more than 16% and have yet to clearly bottom out. Growth in the other two categories has
been largely disappointing so far.
Nonfarm employment rose by a disappointing
2.4% in 2004, however, we would not be surprised
if revisions, due to be released in the coming
weeks, show three percent or better (perhaps as
high as 3.5%). Recent revisions to nationwide
employment were upward, and the gap between
national estimates and the sum from all states is
especially wide (and national are higher). If
Arizona revisions follow the national, the largest
upward revisions will be in leisure and hospitality,
transportation and warehousing, and business and
professional services.

Housing Bubble Revisited

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1970’s, the cumulative increase over a three-year period was 26%. During three years in the mid
1980’s, real prices rose almost 5%. In the current episode, prices have increased by 57% over a period
that spans nearly eleven years. Moreover, prices accelerated sharply as 2004 came to a close, with
increases exceeding 10%! The current run-up in housing prices is unprecedented in both duration
and magnitude.
The graph also shows that housing prices do decline, at least in real terms. In nominal terms, price
appreciation runs close to zero. These periods last from 3-5 years.
There is no such thing as a national housing market, of course. National statistics are simply an
aggregate of individual markets, and individual markets around the country vary widely. Each city has
its own market, and larger cities may have more than one. Markets that face supply constraints, i.e., a
shortage of developable land, are the most likely to experience rapid price increases. Market bubbles in
today’s environment are located primarily on both coasts in areas where land is scarce. For most of the
country, housing markets are seeing normal appreciation in line with overall inflation. Until last year,
housing price appreciation in Arizona was not extraordinary.
Although rapid escalation of prices is a necessary feature, it is not sufficient to identify a bubble
environment. A bubble usually has three key features. First, prices are bid up beyond what is consistent
with underlying fundamentals. The challenge is to identify what the fundamental level is, and measures
typically used such as housing prices relative to household income or to rents are not very good measures, especially when sales are to buyers from outside the region (where incomes may be much higher
or buyers have significant wealth).
Second, it’s not really historical prices that matter, but homebuyers’ expectations of future price
increases. If buyers expect prices to rise by, say ten percent in real terms over the next five or ten years,
then the market is in serious trouble. Here again, expectations are hard to observe, and the only way to
get this data is through expensive surveys of recent buyers.
A third feature is the presence of speculators in the market. Investors who hold a property for a few
years (perhaps as a future retirement home) are not a problem. It’s the buyer who is looking to “flip”

EXHIBIT 1
Export-Based Sectors are Lagging
AZ Employment Since Beginning of 2001 Recession
Seasonally Adjusted

Index (April 2001=1.0)

Analysts continue to debate whether housing
markets are experiencing a bubble. The short-term
market-clearing mechanism in any market is the
price, and housing prices have been accelerating
sharply. Exhibit 2 shows a history of housing
prices going back some thirty years using nationwide data from a database of repeat sales compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight (OFHEO). The data is for Arizona.
The solid line shows housing prices after adjusting for inflation. The shaded areas under that line
show periods in which housing prices were going
up faster than inflation. The shaded bars represent periods of national recession. Back in the late

The current run-up in housing prices is unprecedented
in both duration and magnitude.
2.

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EXHIBIT 2
Unprecedented Burst in Hope Prices
AZ Home Price Appreciation
% change year ago

the property in a few months and pocket a large
gain that distorts the market and makes underlying fundamental values (and demand) impossible
to determine.
The period of overinvestment we are currently
experiencing here in Arizona will be followed by a
market “correction.” The “investor” money we currently see in real estate markets will leave as soon
as a new investment fad or another “undiscovered” market emerges. In the meantime, the
higher that prices rise, the greater the risk for a
bad ending.

The Outlook

EXHIBIT 3
Moderation to Trend Growth Lies Ahead
000s

Annual Change in Population and Jobs, AZ

Better results for export-based sectors should
soon be evident in employment numbers as evidenced by a number of positive announcements in
recent months. Expansions at Orbital Sciences,
General Dynamics, DunnAir Business Jet
Completion Center, W.L. Gore and Associates, and
Boeing Co., to highlight a few of the larger projects, will send manufacturing employment
upward going forward. Construction activity will
cool and no longer be the growth leader, but will
remain at a high level. Professional and business
services should accelerate smartly, and sectors
related to travel and tourism should see significant gains. Overall, look for over 100,000 new
nonfarm jobs, net, during 2005, an increase of
4.5%. As the current wave of overinvestment in
real estate subsides, both employment and population growth will retreat to increases more in line
with trend growth (Exhibit 3).
Personal income through the third quarter 2004
is showing solid growth of 7% with an accelerating trend. Look for a gain near 8% in 2005.
Wages per employee will exceed 4%. Sales data
show that the consumer continues to spend, but
at a diminished rate when compared to early
2004. As 2004 came to an end, retail sales
growth was running at a 5% annual rate, while
restaurant and bar sales had moderated to 2%.
We think this is a temporary lull and are forecasting 7 to 7.5% gains for all of 2005.
The current year should bring solid growth.
Population growth and real estate will continue to
drive the Arizona economy in the near term, but a
better balance should develop as the year progresses (see forecast table on page 4). ■

Population growth and real estate
will continue to drive the Arizona economy
in the near term.

3.

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F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

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T A B L E S
2004
160,537
6.8
37,854
3.6
65,838
9.3
5,832.2
3.6
86,682
22.6
2,358.9
3.1
371.8
3.8
1,987.3
3.0
453.8
1.8
333.3
5.2
236.4
2.0
403.1
2.2

2005
173,142
7.9
39,422
4.1
70,229
6.7
6,026.1
3.3
85,900
-0.9
2,465.7
4.5
393
5.7
2,072.8
4.3
470.5
3.7
360.4
8.1
243.2
2.9
413.2
2.5

2006
185,256
7.0
41,071
4.2
73,284
4.3
6,214.5
3.1
78,834
-8.2
2,537.6
2.9
402.5
2.4
2,135.3
3.0
483.8
2.8
374.7
4.0
249.5
2.6
421.3
2.0

2007
197,620
6.7
42,827
4.3
76,630
4.6
6,392.5
2.9
73,665
-6.6
2,597.3
2.4
410.2
1.9
2,187.4
2.4
494.1
2.1
384.6
2.7
255.7
2.5
428.7
1.7

2008
211,348
6.9
44,659
4.3
80,367
4.9
6,569.9
2.8
71,381
-3.1
2,655.7
2.2
415.6
1.3
2,240.3
2.4
505.7
2.3
394.6
2.6
262.5
2.6
435.3
1.5

2009
226,300
7.1
46,548
4.2
84,600
5.3
6,751.0
2.8
70,161
-1.7
2,718.4
2.4
421.2
1.3
2,297.5
2.6
518.6
2.6
406.6
3.0
269.4
2.7
443.3
1.8

2010
242,816
7.3
48,462
4.1
89,265
5.5
6,936.6
2.7
69,175
-1.4
2,783.6
2.4
427
1.4
2,356.9
2.6
531.8
2.6
418.5
2.9
276.3
2.5
453.9
2.4

110,377
6.8
43,068
3.8
45,181
9.5
3,742.5
4.0
64,229
17.1
1,670.8
3.3
273.7
4.3
1,397.1
3.1
334.6
1.8
268.2
3.9
162.0
3.3
222.2
2.6

119,394
8.2
44,909
4.3
48,206
6.7
3,877.2
3.6
64,772
0.8
1,742.5
4.3
290.1
6.0
1,452.5
4.0
347.6
3.9
289.1
7.8
168.6
4.1
229.2
3.1

128,433
7.6
47,025
4.7
50,323
4.4
4,008.8
3.4
57,819
-10.7
1,798.3
3.2
297.7
2.6
1,500.6
3.3
359.0
3.3
299.6
3.6
173.6
3.0
233.9
2.1

137,853
7.3
49,313
4.9
52,908
5.1
4,128.3
3.0
52,401
-9.4
1,845.2
2.6
300.6
1.0
1,544.6
2.9
368.6
2.7
309.5
3.3
178.6
2.9
237.9
1.7

148,236
7.5
51,697
4.8
55,907
5.7
4,246.6
2.9
51,945
-0.9
1,890.6
2.5
303.5
1.0
1,587.1
2.8
379.0
2.8
317.6
2.6
184.1
3.1
241.7
1.6

159,592
7.7
54,134
4.7
59,202
5.9
4,368.1
2.9
53,165
2.3
1,941.6
2.7
309.1
1.8
1,632.5
2.9
390.1
2.9
326.9
2.9
189.9
3.1
246.2
1.9

172,268
7.9
56,651
4.7
62,862
6.2
4,494.3
2.9
55,059
3.6
1,996.0
2.8
315.0
1.9
1,681.1
3.0
401.9
3.0
336.8
3.0
195.4
2.9
252.4
2.5

23,920
5.3
35,250
3.4
9,878
7.2
931.2
2.2
10410.0
25.3
352.8
1.6
53.5
0.3
299.4
1.9
54.9
0.8
42.4
2.1
37.5
2.6
78.3
-0.1

25,512
6.7
36,434
3.4
10,393
5.2
955.5
2.6
10778.0
3.5
366.5
3.9
56.0
4.6
310.6
3.7
56.9
3.6
45.0
6.2
39.5
5.5
79.6
1.6

27,395
7.4
37,869
3.9
10,889
4.8
983.3
2.9
10974.0
1.8
379.2
3.5
58.1
3.8
321.1
3.4
58.3
2.4
48.9
8.7
40.7
3.0
80.8
1.5

29,307
7.0
39,388
4.0
11,379
4.5
1009.3
2.6
10257.0
-6.5
389.4
2.7
59.4
2.3
330.0
2.8
59.2
1.7
52.0
6.3
41.9
2.8
82.0
1.4

31,353
7.0
40,945
4.0
11,913
4.7
1033.2
2.4
9424.0
-8.1
398.1
2.2
60.2
1.3
337.9
2.4
60.3
1.7
54.3
4.3
43.0
2.8
83.1
1.3

33,461
6.7
42,527
3.9
12,472
4.7
1055.9
2.2
8944.0
-5.1
406.0
2.0
60.4
0.4
345.5
2.3
61.3
1.8
56.3
3.7
44.2
2.7
84.1
1.3

35,764
6.9
44,139
3.8
13,057
4.7
1077.8
2.1
8657.0
-3.2
413.3
1.8
60.7
0.3
352.6
2.1
62.4
1.8
58.1
3.2
45.2
2.3
85.2
1.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

23,275
20,000
3,275
14.1

23,450
20,600
2,850
12.2

23,325
20,675
2,650
11.4

22,300
19,925
2,375
10.7

21,975
19,650
2,325
10.6

2.2
4.8
-15.5
-17.3

3.2
4.2
-2.6
-5.4

19,950
6,600
750
19,200
2,000
3,850
13,350
3,125
10,225

20,825
6,650
775
20,050
2,000
3,875
14,175
3,150
11,025

20,850
6,575
775
20,075
2,000
3,800
14,275
3,075
11,200

20,350
6,575
775
19,575
2,025
3,775
13,775
3,075
10,700

20,100
6,450
675
19,425
2,025
3,750
13,650
3,075
10,575

3.9
4.9
12.5
3.6
3.8
4.2
3.4
2.5
3.7

3.0
2.4
1.7
3.1
7.4
0.1
3.3
2.7
3.5

11,837
5,551
999
5,287
2,749
8,908
1,197

12,165
5,364
1,027
5,775
2,936
6,902
1,270

11,719
5,110
905
5,704
2,652
7,474
1,135

10,116
4,197
717
5,202
2,512
6,511
698

...
...
...
4,862
2,567
...
...

13.7
-4.8
10.6
29.6
2.7
-23.4
42.5

9.3
4.5
8.5
15.4
-0.7
-20.7
-2.6

8
8

7
7

6
6

1
1

3
3

50.0
50.0

21.4
21.4

39,050
34,750
4,300
11.0

38,525
34,550
3,975
10.3

37,975
34,325
3,650
9.6

36,750
33,450
3,300
9.0

36,800
33,500
3,300
9.0

3.1
4.4
-9.0
-11.7

4.1
4.3
2.1
-1.8

29,925
18,950
3,275
825
1,675
775
26,650
5,725
675
850
1,050
3,450
3,075
850
10,975
1,800
9,175

30,075
18,650
3,200
825
1,625
750
26,875
5,625
675
825
1,025
3,475
2,975
850
11,425
1,850
9,575

29,850
18,450
3,200
825
1,625
750
26,650
5,625
650
800
1,025
3,475
2,825
850
11,400
1,775
9,625

29,500
18,100
3,150
825
1,575
750
26,350
5,600
650
800
1,025
3,500
2,550
825
11,400
1,750
9,650

29,525
18,100
3,125
825
1,550
750
26,400
5,575
650
825
1,050
3,550
2,500
825
11,425
1,775
9,650

3.5
3.0
-6.7
-10.8
-6.1
-3.2
4.9
0.0
8.3
-5.7
13.5
17.4
1.0
10.0
4.3
7.6
3.8

3.1
3.9
-3.2
-8.8
0.3
-3.4
4.0
3.1
11.6
8.1
8.5
12.5
0.0
4.6
2.0
4.4
1.6

76,387
57,859
7,132
11,396
5,924
13,320
2,932

78,227
59,713
6,822
11,693
5,944
15,874
2,676

75,905
57,583
6,065
12,257
5,699
14,760
2,238

66,480
50,982
4,912
10,586
5,111
14,884
1,872

...
...
...
10,480
5,533
...
...

2.5
4.2
-2.1
29.1
2.4
38.1
0.3

10.1
9.1
3.7
19.6
3.2
7.7
-2.8

50
50

59
27

35
35

32
32

48
48

152.6
152.6

31.2
22.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
w ww.eb r .eller .a rizo n a.ed u

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
1Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

10,775
10,125
650
6.0

11,175
10,400
775
6.9

10,975
10,275
700
6.4

10,925
10,300
625
5.7

10,875
10,275
600
5.5

-1.4
-1.2
-4.0
-2.7

-1.5
-1.1
-6.9
-5.5

6,750
4,275
500
6,250
1,350
2,425
2,475
325
2,150

7,025
4,275
500
6,525
1,350
2,425
2,750
325
2,425

7,075
4,225
475
6,600
1,350
2,400
2,850
325
2,525

7,100
4,250
475
6,625
1,375
2,400
2,850
325
2,525

7,100
4,250
475
6,625
1,375
2,400
2,850
325
2,525

1.8
-1.2
5.6
1.5
-3.5
-1.0
6.5
0.0
7.4

-0.8
-1.1
-3.4
-0.6
0.2
-1.4
-0.4
-5.0
0.3

14,203
11,088
1,417
1,697
882
2,148

15,902
12,440
1,458
2,004
1,019
2,305

14,308
10,635
1,442
2,231
1,037
2,230

15,107
11,770
1,400
1,936
935
2,760

...
...
...
1,902
1,004
...

5.2
5.3
-19.1
44.3
14.4
75.1

4.4
3.4
3.3
16.0
0.0
-15.9

71,125
66,925
4,200
5.9

70,400
66,500
3,900
5.5

69,675
66,025
3,650
5.2

68,575
64,875
3,700
5.4

67,625
63,850
3,775
5.6

2.8
3.8
-11.7
-14.1

2.8
3.2
-2.6
-5.2

59,750
41,550
6,025
125
2,800
3,100
53,725
9,375
550
1,575
3,375
7,200
11,725
1,725
18,200
3,675
14,525

60,550
41,450
6,025
125
2,775
3,125
54,525
9,425
550
1,550
3,275
7,325
11,550
1,750
19,100
3,625
15,475

60,600
41,325
6,350
125
2,900
3,325
54,250
9,400
500
1,500
3,300
7,375
11,125
1,775
19,275
3,450
15,825

60,050
40,775
6,350
100
2,900
3,350
53,700
9,375
500
1,500
3,150
7,450
10,700
1,750
19,275
3,300
15,975

59,525
40,800
6,350
100
2,875
3,375
53,175
9,350
500
1,500
3,100
7,575
10,700
1,725
18,725
3,275
15,450

2.8
3.2
10.0
0.0
4.5
15.4
2.0
-3.9
11.1
3.4
4.2
7.8
1.9
6.2
1.9
-2.2
2.8

1.8
2.8
4.2
-15.9
3.3
6.1
1.5
-0.5
10.5
1.3
6.8
7.4
1.0
1.1
-0.2
-2.1
0.2

127,048
81,377
26,934
18,737
9,740
26,053
20,541

122,744
79,364
25,903
17,478
8,885
26,793
19,985

118,201
75,893
23,339
18,969
8,821
26,819
16,122

106,560
71,945
18,316
16,299
7,870
20,669
10,693

...
...
...
14,528
7,670
...
...

6.8
2.7
0.9
24.5
-1.3
-23.2
6.0

7.7
6.4
7.4
19.1
3.3
-5.5
8.7

69
69

56
53

70
70

54
52

68
68

-27.7
-26.1

-24.1
6.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

3,700
3,525
175
4.7

3,650
3,450
200
5.5

3,675
3,500
175
4.8

3,725
3,575
150
4.0

3,750
3,600
150
4.0

5.6
8.3
-33.3
-36.9

-1.1
1.3
-31.3
-30.3

3,425
2,875
2,300
1,125
250
325
550
50
500

3,425
2,875
2,325
1,100
225
325
550
50
500

3,525
2,975
2,400
1,125
250
325
550
50
500

3,575
3,025
2,425
1,150
250
350
550
50
500

3,650
3,100
2,475
1,175
250
375
550
50
500

9.8
10.7
10.0
9.3
11.1
15.4
4.8
0.0
5.3

1.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
-0.0
-2.4
4.3
9.1
3.9

8,853
8,194
191
468
243
972
394

8,247
7,618
209
420
214
1,515
372

8,573
7,857
241
474
220
899
219

8,308
7,703
138
466
225
529
372

...
...
...
503
265
...
...

71.4
73.7
2.4
35.6
7.5
-9.3
-14.6

27.6
27.9
2.8
35.9
18.5
-20.9
-2.0

87,125
84,800
2,325
2.7

86,600
84,175
2,425
2.8

87,600
85,250
2,350
2.7

86,975
84,850
2,125
2.4

86,175
84,200
1,975
2.3

5.2
5.9
-19.4
-23.3

4.6
5.1
-8.8
-12.7

56,450
45,375
10,025
1,150
5,650
3,225
46,425
10,075
675
2,000
4,550
9,150
7,150
1,750
11,075
1,325
9,750

57,125
45,525
10,000
1,175
5,600
3,225
47,125
10,225
675
2,000
4,325
9,250
7,300
1,750
11,600
1,300
10,300

57,600
45,875
10,050
1,175
5,675
3,200
47,550
10,525
650
2,025
4,350
9,300
7,200
1,775
11,725
1,300
10,425

57,650
45,850
9,825
1,150
5,475
3,200
47,825
10,675
650
2,025
4,375
9,375
7,150
1,775
11,800
1,275
10,525

57,400
45,975
9,925
1,150
5,575
3,200
47,475
10,775
675
2,050
4,400
9,350
7,025
1,775
11,425
1,275
10,150

5.1
5.6
3.9
17.9
2.3
2.4
5.3
4.9
0.0
9.3
8.0
9.4
1.8
7.6
3.2
0.0
3.6

4.4
4.1
2.4
16.1
1.7
-0.4
4.8
1.4
1.9
6.8
6.8
10.5
1.7
0.4
5.5
1.8
6.0

144,673
111,598
18,515
14,560
7,569
53,240
6,516

143,527
110,150
18,892
14,484
7,363
54,975
8,755

145,101
109,291
19,734
16,076
7,475
53,808
8,150

145,874
114,000
16,579
15,296
7,386
51,139
6,094

...
...
...
13,174
6,955
...
...

13.2
17.6
-22.5
26.5
0.3
18.8
9.7

9.8
10.3
0.9
19.2
3.8
14.8
0.1

262
248

250
236

262
258

265
257

273
268

23.0
28.2

26.6
26.7

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
w ww.eb r .eller .a rizo n a.ed u

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

19,175
18,000
1,175
6.1

19,000
17,725
1,275
6.7

18,925
17,725
1,200
6.3

18,525
17,475
1,050
5.7

18,300
17,300
1,000
5.5

-0.1
1.3
-20.0
-19.9

-0.6
0.7
-16.3
-15.7

13,900
8,775
2,000
11,900
2,075
4,700
5,125
600
4,525

13,850
8,625
1,975
11,875
2,050
4,600
5,225
600
4,625

13,825
8,600
1,950
11,875
2,050
4,600
5,225
525
4,700

13,800
8,600
1,925
11,875
2,050
4,625
5,200
500
4,700

13,700
8,575
1,950
11,750
2,050
4,575
5,125
500
4,625

0.2
-1.7
-3.7
0.9
-6.8
1.7
3.5
5.3
3.4

-0.6
-1.2
-5.7
0.4
-1.7
1.1
0.6
-3.0
1.0

29,411
19,417
4,564
5,431
2,823
8,011
994

28,763
19,085
4,352
5,326
2,708
9,435
916

30,299
20,163
4,125
6,010
2,795
6,756
956

29,271
20,146
3,620
5,505
2,658
5,324
794

...
...
...
4,890
2,582
...
...

12.6
8.5
-9.9
51.3
19.9
-40.4
12.3

5.9
1.9
4.6
28.1
12.0
1.8
7.9

80,900
78,000
2,900
3.6

80,950
78,025
2,925
3.6

81,700
79,050
2,650
3.2

80,975
78,400
2,575
3.2

80,750
78,300
2,450
3.0

5.5
7.0
-27.9
-31.7

5.2
6.3
-17.3
-21.2

48,050
40,850
9,125
100
5,525
3,500
38,925
10,600
875
2,100
3,875
5,725
6,325
2,225
7,200
525
6,675

48,575
41,075
9,150
100
5,475
3,575
39,425
10,725
875
2,100
3,925
5,800
6,300
2,200
7,500
525
6,975

48,750
41,225
9,125
100
5,475
3,550
39,625
10,925
850
2,100
3,900
5,950
6,225
2,150
7,525
525
7,000

48,850
41,325
9,050
100
5,425
3,525
39,800
11,025
875
2,100
4,025
5,925
6,150
2,175
7,525
500
7,025

48,525
41,275
8,925
100
5,300
3,525
39,600
11,075
875
2,125
4,050
5,925
6,150
2,150
7,250
525
6,725

2.5
3.4
-5.3
0.0
-10.2
2.9
4.4
1.1
0.0
6.3
16.5
5.3
10.8
6.2
-2.4
0.0
-2.5

2.5
3.2
-1.7
0.0
-5.0
4.2
3.5
0.8
0.7
9.5
10.4
1.4
10.9
4.7
-1.4
1.2
-1.6

133,813
98,865
13,844
21,104
10,971
46,500
4,106

139,474
103,030
15,946
20,499
10,420
51,101
3,888

134,903
98,008
14,546
22,348
10,392
44,714
3,283

141,163
108,227
13,407
19,530
9,430
46,849
2,595

...
...
...
18,852
9,953
...
...

16.8
12.2
5.3
46.8
16.3
50.2
19.2

14.2
12.4
11.1
30.0
13.0
47.7
12.2

437
403

351
319

283
273

322
308

310
304

13.6
33.3

10.4
18.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

ELR-35-05 AZEC-April05FNLalt.qxd

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Page 9

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

6,775
6,300
475
7.0

6,700
6,200
500
7.5

6,500
6,025
475
7.3

6,200
5,800
400
6.5

6,250
5,825
425
6.8

-9.1
-10.0
6.3
16.9

-2.0
-2.5
5.7
8.0

4,725
2,475
325
4,400
1,075
1,075
2,250
225
2,025

4,700
2,450
300
4,400
1,075
1,075
2,250
225
2,025

4,700
2,450
300
4,400
1,050
1,100
2,250
225
2,025

4,525
2,250
300
4,225
1,075
875
2,275
225
2,050

4,575
2,275
325
4,250
1,100
850
2,300
225
2,075

-4.2
-1.1
30.0
-6.1
4.8
-15.0
-7.1
28.6
-9.8

-1.2
-1.7
9.2
-1.9
-6.7
0.8
-0.7
24.4
-2.6

14,254
7,326
1,671
5,258
2,733
1,356
491

13,534
7,334
1,714
4,486
2,280
1,600
400

15,082
7,623
1,823
5,636
2,621
1,880
379

16,042
7,961
1,764
6,317
3,050
1,258
429

...
...
...
5,215
2,753
...
...

21.2
9.0
-23.3
33.0
5.4
5.0
33.7

14.5
11.8
6.5
24.1
7.5
44.6
2.1

81,350
57,075
24,275
29.8

80,075
57,975
22,100
27.6

77,900
59,475
18,425
23.7

75,800
60,675
15,125
20.0

75,150
63,650
11,500
15.3

3.8
5.1
-3.2
-6.7

2.2
3.1
-0.8
-2.5

44,600
31,825
6,050
25
4,250
1,775
38,550
8,000
950
1,200
3,975
5,875
4,375
1,400
12,775
2,950
9,825

45,650
32,450
6,125
25
4,325
1,775
39,525
8,200
950
1,275
4,150
5,900
4,450
1,400
13,200
2,925
10,275

47,625
34,225
6,225
25
4,375
1,825
41,400
9,375
925
1,300
4,200
6,025
4,700
1,475
13,400
2,925
10,475

49,300
35,750
6,675
25
4,375
2,275
42,625
10,125
925
1,350
4,200
6,075
4,875
1,525
13,550
2,925
10,625

51,775
38,300
7,575
25
4,425
3,125
44,200
11,225
925
1,350
4,425
6,150
5,075
1,575
13,475
2,925
10,550

9.2
11.3
9.4
0.0
13.5
4.2
9.2
15.4
-11.9
8.0
9.3
8.4
18.0
10.5
3.7
3.5
3.7

3.9
4.2
3.8
0.0
15.1
-12.2
3.9
2.5
-6.1
-1.8
11.7
6.0
4.3
2.8
3.0
4.1
2.7

99,112
74,683
10,019
14,409
7,490
33,309
2,206

110,407
85,209
10,751
14,447
7,344
31,875
2,568

111,210
87,314
12,394
11,502
5,349
35,680
2,890

135,198
107,376
11,581
16,241
7,842
30,715
2,981

...
...
...
18,673
9,858
...
...

19.0
20.2
-1.1
43.0
13.3
14.1
13.6

9.8
9.0
9.2
17.7
2.1
31.0
9.8

233
233

188
188

248
184

171
171

169
169

59.4
59.4

37.1
29.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
w ww.eb r .eller .a rizo n a.ed u

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
AUG
2004
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

15,600
12,950
2,650
17.0

15,750
12,800
2,950
18.7

15,675
12,950
2,725
17.4

15,050
13,200
1,850
12.3

15,075
13,675
1,400
9.3

2.9
4.0
-6.7
-9.3

3.0
2.5
6.4
3.5

12,250
8,700
1,400
10,850
4,475
2,825
3,550
1,150
2,400

12,250
8,675
1,375
10,875
4,450
2,850
3,575
1,150
2,425

12,425
8,875
1,350
11,075
4,675
2,850
3,550
1,150
2,400

12,875
9,275
1,325
11,550
5,050
2,900
3,600
1,150
2,450

13,325
9,750
1,325
12,000
5,525
2,900
3,575
1,125
2,450

4.3
5.7
1.9
4.6
8.3
2.7
0.7
-2.2
2.1

1.9
1.4
-0.9
2.3
1.9
1.5
3.4
1.7
4.2

30,700
23,212
2,636
4,851
2,522
6,336
547

29,487
22,262
2,533
4,693
2,386
6,626
1,056

33,813
25,504
2,866
5,442
2,531
6,842
957

37,801
29,804
2,643
5,354
2,585
6,699
856

...
...
...
6,608
3,489
...
...

7.3
5.0
-0.2
45.3
15.1
6.6
38.0

7.6
6.1
2.4
20.4
4.4
10.7
12.8

48
46

42
34

58
58

26.1
31.8

7.1
8.4

54
54

62
60

47,500
45,575
1,925
4.1

47,650
45,650
2,000
4.2

47,975
46,050
1,925
4.0

47,725
46,000
1,725
3.6

47,475
45,850
1,625
3.4

4.2
5.0
-14.5
-17.9

2.2
3.2
-17.1
-18.8

34,750
23,200
3,325
25
2,350
950
31,425
6,250
450
950
3,750
3,825
3,575
1,075
11,550
5,050
6,500

35,350
23,325
3,450
25
2,350
1,075
31,900
6,325
450
925
3,675
3,800
3,600
1,100
12,025
5,000
7,025

35,775
23,650
3,625
25
2,475
1,125
32,150
6,450
425
950
3,650
3,800
3,625
1,125
12,125
4,975
7,150

35,900
23,675
3,450
25
2,475
950
32,450
6,600
450
950
3,625
3,825
3,650
1,125
12,225
5,000
7,225

35,925
23,725
3,300
25
2,375
900
32,625
6,675
450
950
3,675
3,875
3,675
1,125
12,200
5,000
7,200

5.4
5.6
7.3
-50.0
10.5
2.9
5.2
5.1
0.0
5.6
6.5
6.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
5.8
4.3

2.8
2.7
2.6
-25.0
3.8
1.4
2.9
2.7
-4.0
5.9
4.6
5.7
-0.7
0.2
3.0
6.1
0.9

73,921
55,449
8,530
9,942
5,168
19,337
2,038

70,929
53,155
7,921
9,854
5,009
18,111
2,007

73,130
52,427
9,174
11,529
5,361
16,795
2,695

74,629
55,978
7,917
10,734
5,183
14,903
2,376

...
...
...
11,848
6,255
...
...

5.7
0.3
1.4
58.2
25.4
-10.2
10.5

8.0
2.3
18.2
46.8
26.9
-3.6
17.3

76
76

69
60

76
76

43.4
43.4

25.8
23.6

89
89

85
85

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

433.5
418.0
15.5
3.5

437.9
421.2
16.7
3.8

441.9
425.4
16.5
3.8

440.9
426.2
14.7
3.4

440.0
426.7
13.3
3.1

2.3
2.9
-15.3
-16.2

2.2
2.8
-12.1
-13.5

344.4
1.2
23.8
28.4
5.3
11.3
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
16.0
41.8
47.6
4.5
7.6
24.4
14.8
10.4
62.3
39.5

352.9
1.3
24.0
28.3
5.3
11.2
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
16.2
42.3
48.0
4.7
7.8
24.9
14.8
10.3
68.7
46.2

357.7
1.3
24.3
28.2
5.3
11.1
7.2
39.4
7.9
7.7
16.5
42.6
48.2
4.8
8.3
25.3
14.8
10.4
70.8
48.4

360.3
1.3
24.2
28.2
5.3
11.1
7.3
41.2
7.9
7.8
16.8
42.4
48.3
4.8
8.5
25.6
14.8
10.4
70.8
48.6

362.7
1.3
24.3
28.2
5.3
11.1
7.3
42.2
8.0
7.7
16.9
42.4
48.6
4.8
8.7
26.0
14.7
10.5
71.1
48.9

2.1
18.2
3.4
-1.4
1.9
-3.5
1.4
0.0
3.9
0.0
10.5
-0.2
3.2
-7.7
16.0
7.0
1.4
7.1
0.1
1.9

1.6
5.0
3.5
-1.4
-0.9
-2.5
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.8
5.3
1.2
4.6
-1.3
6.5
3.0
1.8
5.8
-0.9
1.1

798,265
544,653
105,928
88,465
59,219
160,189
16,233

784,466
526,837
108,710
89,127
59,793
156,852
17,909

791,176
509,018
113,031
97,360
71,768
147,238
24,506

828,501
561,596
116,149
87,493
63,263
169,547
23,302

...
...
...
...
65,303
...
...

8.3
6.0
6.1
-0.3
30.0
20.3
4.3

7.5
6.1
10.1
9.4
15.2
10.6
4.3

1,028
842
186

909
835
74

820
705
115

898
835
63

748
709
39

7.7
8.0
2.4

25.2
17.5
150.7

300,961
1,468
205,014

264,331
1,274
207,481

273,555
1,295
211,240

258,237
1,209
213,596

273,531
1,283
213,196

44.0
18.7
21.3

34.2
17.2
14.6

284,098
20,439

273,606
19,186

327,069
22,685

321,874
22,434

332,506
20,128

7.8
10.7

7.5
2.8

IV
2003

I
2004

II
2004

III
2004

IV
2004

918.0
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.3

923.1
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.7

928.5
1.3
3.2
1.9
4.1

934.3
1.3
3.2
1.9
4.5

940.4
1.3
3.3
2.0
4.7

2.4
3.1
2.3
1.7
41.3

2.3
5.5
3.0
1.4
15.3

23,165
15,644
1,792
106
4,949
4,258
25,233

23,321
15,724
1,810
107
4,977
4,322
25,264

23,715
15,986
1,843
109
5,069
4,394
25,541

24,121
16,271
1,878
111
5,154
4,464
25,817

24,525
16,578
1,914
113
5,221
4,526
26,080

5.9
6.0
6.8
6.2
5.5
6.3
3.4

5.3
5.1
6.3
5.4
5.1
6.5
2.9

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

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A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
,Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

1,867.8
1,794.8
73.0
3.7

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

1,860.9
1,784.0
76.9
4.0

1,873.1
1,798.3
74.8
4.0

1,882.4
1,814.5
67.9
3.7

1,867.9
1,807.8
60.1
3.3

2.4
3.4
-20.6
-23.3

2.7
3.7
-17.0
-18.8

1,644.1
2.0
146.4
101.5
13.1
35.2
14.6
26.6
75.7
194.4
8.1
51.4
34.0
102.6
32.9
266.9
27.8
142.7
19.3
26.1
108.6
63.4
21.8
191.9
94.3

1,660.8
2.0
147.1
101.4
13.0
34.9
14.7
26.7
75.6
194.1
8.0
51.5
33.5
102.8
32.9
265.8
29.1
143.0
19.9
26.5
109.5
63.6
21.8
206.0
108.9

1,679.9
2.1
149.2
101.5
13.1
34.8
14.7
26.6
75.5
197.3
8.0
52.9
33.6
103.2
33.1
268.4
30.0
142.9
20.5
27.3
111.5
63.7
22.0
210.6
112.2

1,705.0
2.1
150.8
102.0
13.1
35.0
14.7
26.8
75.8
205.9
8.0
52.7
33.7
103.9
33.3
270.4
30.3
144.0
20.8
27.6
113.7
63.8
22.0
217.4
112.8

1,707.8
2.1
150.7
102.0
13.2
35.1
14.9
26.7
76.3
211.7
8.0
52.5
33.4
104.8
33.7
270.7
30.4
144.4
21.1
27.6
114.4
63.9
22.7
210.7
113.0

2.7
5.0
10.0
0.2
0.0
-2.2
1.4
-2.9
-1.5
3.4
0.0
1.2
-8.5
2.2
-0.3
3.0
12.2
2.8
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.6
1.3
2.7
3.2

2.6
1.7
10.7
-0.4
1.6
-4.7
-0.6
-2.5
-1.9
3.2
1.4
0.5
-6.8
1.7
0.0
2.7
13.9
3.3
-0.3
1.0
2.3
2.4
0.5
2.9
3.7

3,531,867
2,420,951
457,412
392,918
260,585
942,756
54,362

3,668,377
2,532,928
469,427
409,204
256,817
933,217
71,104

3,728,268
2,500,756
488,083
451,511
287,918
901,602
102,313

3,818,467
2,603,698
501,551
434,605
278,613
914,500
98,281

...
...
...
...
267,003
...
...

10.3
9.1
7.0
4.1
30.0
32.7
-5.8

10.1
9.2
11.6
9.1
20.1
19.5
5.3

5,282
4,998
160
124

5,284
4,761
62
461

5,238
4,510
70
658

4,038
3,779
68
191

5,284
3,958
110
1,216

-0.5
-10.9
150.0
46.9

19.9
21.4
123.7
-3.4

1,947,960
8,695
224,032

1,893,821
8,351
226,778

1,833,257
7,836
233,953

1,812,368
7,695
235,525

1,808,665
7,554
239,431

41.6
25.4
12.9

34.7
24.2
8.3

3,373,538
46,073

3,022,417
44,372

3,391,626
46,218

3,239,654
45,001

3,347,436
47,110

7.0
3.9

5.5
0.9

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

12.

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court: District of Arizona
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border
Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

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A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
IV
2003

I
2004

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,653.3
3,689.5
Natural Increase
9.1
9.2
Births
15.3
15.5
Deaths
6.2
6.3
Net Migration
26.1
27.0
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
105,925
107,057
Earnings by Place of Work
85,061
86,034
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
9,459
9,632
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-29
-29
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
16,413
16,481
Plus: Transfer Payments
13,939
14,203
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
28,994
29,016
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA & EBR
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2004

III
2004

IV
2004

3,725.4
9.2
15.6
6.3
26.7

3,759.8
9.2
15.6
6.4
25.2

3,793.3
9.2
15.7
6.4
24.2

3.8
1.4
2.0
2.9
-7.4

3.9
2.4
2.5
2.5
10.6

109,220
87,814
9,840
-28
16,781
14,493
29,317

111,468
89,697
10,042
-28
17,071
14,771
29,647

113,764
91,675
10,235
-28
17,324
15,028
29,991

7.4
7.8
8.2
4.8
5.6
7.8
3.4

6.8
7.2
8.3
5.7
4.9
8.1
2.8

5,705.7
11.8
22.8
11.1
38.8

5,756.3
12.6
23.2
10.5
37.9

5,806.9
12.4
22.9
10.5
38.2

5,857.0
12.6
23.0
10.4
37.1

5,906.2
12.4
23.1
10.7
36.4

3.5
5.5
1.2
-3.4
-6.2

3.5
4.5
1.6
-1.6
13.5

154,208
118,088
12,980
578
24,893
23,629

156,488
120,295
13,421
590
24,760
24,268

158,779
122,109
13,605
599
24,890
24,788

160,850
123,986
13,807
609
24,870
25,195

166,032
126,799
14,110
623
27,248
25,474

7.7
7.4
8.7
7.9
9.5
7.8

6.8
7.5
8.3
6.8
3.9
7.2

85,739
18,480
13,696
581
13,116
27,027
36,552

87,225
18,998
13,764
400
13,364
27,185
36,757

88,348
19,275
14,361
415
13,946
27,343
37,485

89,802
19,613
14,641
438
14,203
27,463
37,801

91,863
20,060
...
...
...
28,111
...

7.1
8.6
8.8
-15.9
9.8
4.0
4.8

6.8
9.1
10.7
27.4
10.2
3.2
4.7

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

2,112,926
141,772
763,912
1,207,242
150,260
20,619
92,615
37,026

1,842,045
138,362
681,790
1,021,893
145,283
21,812
96,132
27,339

1,388,757
132,608
504,359
751,790
191,922
29,984
135,400
26,538

918,012
80,938
298,091
538,983
194,907
29,861
149,422
15,624

805,259
60,415
254,324
490,520
186,656
36,285
140,861
9,510

-1.9
-20.8
-10.3
6.4
-10.4
-13.5
-9.3
-14.7

0.5
0.2
1.2
0.1
-3.8
-0.4
-4.0
-6.4

644,137
2,066,265
n/a

645,171
1,735,044
n/a

640,305
1,700,326
n/a

669,397
1,824,740
n/a

701,001
1,945,437
n/a

0.9
-1.8
n/a

-4.0
-0.6
n/a

189.5
185.0

189.9
185.4

190.9
186.5

191.0
186.8

190.3
186.0

3.3
3.4

2.7
2.6

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
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Page 14

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

NOV
2004

DEC
2004

2,787.7
2,650.9
136.8
4.4

2,782.7
2,643.3
139.4
4.8

2,797.0
2,665.1
131.9
4.8

2,796.9
2,679.2
117.7
4.5

2,778.1
2,674.2
103.9
4.2

2.6
3.5
-17.3
-16.0

2.7
3.6
-12.8
-14.8

2,322.5
8.4
195.0
138.4
17.0
41.1
26.4
33.5
91.0
277.6
11.4
65.2
46.0
118.1
43.3
331.1
38.4
220.0
28.8
43.4
159.4
88.0
53.7
331.8
169.3
39.8

2,352.7
8.5
196.2
138.1
17.0
40.8
26.2
33.6
90.9
277.8
11.4
65.1
45.5
118.3
43.4
330.2
40.3
220.4
29.5
43.7
160.8
88.2
53.6
357.2
196.3
40.2

2,378.9
8.6
198.9
138.4
17.2
40.6
26.2
33.6
91.2
282.7
11.4
66.8
45.3
119.0
43.6
333.2
41.1
221.0
30.1
44.7
163.0
88.1
53.4
364.8
202.7
40.1

2,407.8
8.7
200.4
138.7
17.2
40.9
26.2
33.9
92.0
294.5
11.4
66.4
45.4
119.7
43.7
335.1
41.4
222.5
30.5
44.9
165.5
88.3
53.3
371.5
203.8
39.9

2,413.5
8.7
200.2
138.6
17.3
41.0
26.3
34.3
93.3
302.1
11.5
66.1
45.1
120.6
44.2
335.6
41.5
223.2
30.9
44.9
166.5
88.4
54.1
363.7
203.0
40.4

2.8
10.1
8.4
0.1
-0.6
-1.7
-1.5
-3.1
-0.7
2.9
0.9
0.9
-7.6
3.0
0.5
2.9
11.3
3.2
4.4
2.7
3.2
2.6
4.4
2.2
3.6
-2.2

2.4
3.9
8.8
-0.2
1.4
-4.1
-1.3
-3.9
-1.1
2.5
0.7
0.4
-5.3
2.0
0.3
2.8
12.8
3.8
2.7
1.9
2.2
1.9
3.6
1.7
2.7
-1.1

15.45
14.02
14.32
11.50
18.97

15.41
14.01
14.40
11.72
19.06

15.56
13.97
14.43
11.70
18.80

15.72
14.13
14.38
11.69
18.24

16.01
14.18
14.30
11.64
17.95

4.1
-1.0
6.3
1.9
2.6

1.8
-1.7
5.1
1.2
9.0

5,220,946
3,520,223
689,943
577,835
432,945
225,058
730,559
250,304
54,926
249,355
1,322,437
66,865
112,557

5,356,179
3,624,486
708,067
595,858
427,769
217,451
707,501
236,316
51,578
249,355
1,317,182
73,619
132,906

5,426,780
3,567,182
736,207
645,526
477,865
222,211
581,524
247,330
55,562
274,939
1,267,496
80,116
165,845

5,572,337
3,755,383
756,521
605,091
455,342
219,866
470,376
236,982
80,400
243,311
1,286,286
62,668
151,345

...
...
...
...
443,841
234,328
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.2
8.9
7.5
1.9
32.0
4.6
9.9
2.6
5.0
-5.9
27.0
74.3
-1.6

9.2
8.6
7.5
8.9
20.4
4.4
7.6
-1.0
4.2
-0.7
17.5
119.8
5.5

7,430
6,966
214
250

7,781
6,543
153
485

7,032
6,150
94
788

5,819
5,495
133
191

6,986
5,643
121
1,222

4.2
-1.7
4.3
44.1

22.2
23.1
50.1
-0.6

2,741
2,269
14
458

2,544
2,081
18
445

2,446
2,017
18
411

2,279
1,864
13
402

2,175
1,714
9
452

-3.4
-3.7
-59.1
0.4

-2.5
-0.1
-34.4
-10.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
14.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

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Page 15

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2003

I
2004

II
2004

III
2004

IV
2004

188.7
184.6
180.3

190.8
186.3
181.9

193.0
188.9
184.5

193.2
189.6
185.1

194.8
190.7
186.4

3.2
3.3
3.4

2.3
2.7
2.6

106.6
106.0

107.3
106.9

108.2
107.7

108.6
108.0

109.1
108.6

2.4
2.5

2.2
2.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

To subscribe to Arizona's Economy or other Economic and Business Research Publications, visit:

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu/subscribe/.
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