INSIDE:
Forecast Tables – pg. 4
Arizona Economic Indicators – pg. 5
J A N U A R Y

2 0 0 5

•

W I N T E R

2005-2006
Economic Outlook
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
December 1, 2004

The economy is now in “mid cycle.”
Losses suffered during the last recession
have been recovered and new all-time
records are being set each month. Results
are not even, however, across all industries. Manufacturing and information are
still declining while construction soars.
Next year’s performance rides on the
answer to two perplexing questions:
“What’s holding back job creation?” and
“Is there a bubble in housing that’s about
to burst?” Unless something really bad
happens (such as a dollar “crash,” a
major terrorist event in the U.S., or other
shock that interrupts commerce and
sends decision makers to the sidelines),
the expansion should continue for
another few years. More balanced
growth across sectors is expected in
2005, and job creation will improve. The
following year will bring slower growth
as the business cycle matures.

I S S U E

Two-thousand and four will go into the record
books as the best year for business conditions in
a decade. It may not have felt like it at times,
given gasoline prices above two dollars per gallon, hurricanes in the southeastern U.S., the
detraction of a divisive presidential campaign,
and the ever-present threat of terrorism. In fact,
both consumer and business confidence trended
downward nationwide during 2004.
The economy grew robustly, however, with real
GDP expanding by a preliminary 4.4% during
2004. Consumers spent freely, housing markets
soared to record highs, interest rates remained
near recent lows, inflation remained in check,
corporate profits soared to all-time highs relative
to GDP, and state revenue collections surged
across the country. All things considered, it just
doesn’t get much better.

Two-thousand and four will go into the record books as the best year
for business conditions in a decade — it just doesn’t get much better.
What’s Holding
Back Job Creation?
The single element missing from this sanguine
picture of health has been the lack of job
growth. In Arizona, the question is “why the lack
of significant growth,” since the state is adding
jobs and was one of the first states to recover all
the jobs that were lost during the 2001 recession. In September, non farm employment was
2.4% higher than a year earlier, but most forecasters (including this one) expected gains closer
to 4% by this point.
Has a structural shift in some sectors eliminated the possibility of robust growth? Or is this
just a garden variety business cycle tempered by
hurricanes, political uncertainty, high gasoline
prices, and terrorist threats?
A case can be made that a structural shift has
occurred in a handful of important sectors such
as retailing, education, telecommunications,
health care, and manufacturing1. In retailing,
Wal-Mart and online retailers are forcing mainstream retailers to cut costs by adopting new
technologies for inventory management and
1

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

other computerized innovations such as “selfservice” checkout lines at grocery stores.
These initiatives have boosted productivity
and allowed retailers to forgo hiring
additional workers.
Using Arizona data, as we near the end of the
third year of this expansion, retail employment
today is nearly at the same level but is growing
at much slower pace than a decade ago. This
could be a structural shift, or it could reflect
retailers’ expectations for a mediocre holiday
shopping season. Maybe retailers are simply
being cautious with hiring this season.
In education, enrollments are declining due to
demographics, according to the Federal
Department of Education. They note that elementary and secondary enrollments are growing
by only 160,000 in 2004 compared to an aver-

See “Jobs: The Lull Will Linger,” BusinessWeek, October 25, 2004, p 38-41.

age of 700,000 during the 1990s. That means
fewer new teachers need to be hired. But, using
Arizona data, there is no perceptible slowdown
in education employment; In Arizona, enrollments continue to expand and the shortage of
teachers is perpetual.
The same is true for “health care and social
services.” (These categories are added together
since it’s hard to distinguish nowadays.) The
national slowdown in hiring sited in the
BusinessWeek article is not evident in Arizona
data. One of the largest skill shortages in
Arizona is for nurses, medical technologists, and
pharmacists. As the population grows older, the
need for additional health care professionals will
accelerate.
Telecommunications is quite a different story.
Fallout from overinvestment during the high
tech boom is still being felt, and employment
continues to slide. Enough fiber for an entire
decade was installed during the late 1990s.
Growth of cellular communications and
resulting losses of wired customers
also is a factor. Is this a structural
shift, or simply an investment

cycle, similar to what happened in housing during
the late 1980s? In the longer term, telecom will be
back, but in the near term additional cuts should
be expected.
Finally, consider manufacturing, which is still
struggling to reestablish an upward trend for
employment. The decline during this past recession was unprecedented, as Arizona’s manufacturers lost 40,000 jobs or nearly 20% of their workforce (Exhibit 1).
The reasons for manufacturing’s fall are well
known: strong productivity gains coupled with
outsourcing, off-shoring, and commoditization of
many products that other countries can make at
lower cost. Manufacturing jobs have been in a
long-term secular decline nationwide over the
past few decades. At times, Arizona has been able
to attract manufacturing jobs – in semiconductors
and electronics during the ’70s, and aerospace
during the ’90s. But it has been a losing battle to
increase this industry’s share of total employment.
New products and industries need to be born for
manufacturing to increase its contribution to the
state’s economy.
The idea that there has been a structural shift in
a number of industries that preempts stronger job
creation is intriguing, but not well supported by
data available for Arizona. Perhaps some industries are finally implementing new technologies
that will boost productivity and check the need to
hire additional workers. But the main explanation
for slow overall job creation is the continuing
slide in manufacturing and telecommunications
industries, whose declines are largely due to the
investment cycle and global competition in
mature industries. Both should begin growing
again in 2005, but neither will become engines
of growth.

The Outlook for Housing
How the economy progresses in coming months
has a lot to do with the homebuilding and construction industries. Home building has been so
good for so long, far surpassing expectations. Is
there a bubble in housing markets that is about to
burst? Or will construction continue to be the
fastest-growing sector? Should we be worried

EXHIBIT 1
Manufacturing Has Been Hit Hard

EXHIBIT 2
U.S. Home Prices Are High Relative to Household Income

Arizona Manufacturing Employment — Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio of Average Home Price to Average Household Disposable Income
5

250

4

200
3

2

150
00

01

02

03

04

about “investors” buying new houses with the intention of renting?
Although interest rates remain low, housing affordability is deteriorating rapidly due to surging
prices. Housing affordability for Metro Phoenix, compiled by the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona
State University, shows the second quarter 2004 index at 100 for new homes and 112 for resale homes.
Both fell significantly (13-15 points) from the prior quarter. During 2003, the index was near 113 for
new homes and 126 for resale.
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), during the year ending with
the second quarter, their “repeat sales” price index increased 9.4% nationwide, the largest increase
since the 1970’s. That’s four to five times the rate of inflation! For Arizona, the increase was nearly the
same at 9.5% – a little more in Flagstaff (13.4%) and Tucson (9.9%), and a little less in Phoenix (8.2%).
Two neighboring states, California and Nevada, have seen prices explode during the past year, with
gains of 18% and 23%, respectively. Other states recording double-digit gains are in the northeastern
U.S., including D.C., Virginia and Florida.
Are prices now too high? One measure is the ratio of average home prices to average household disposable income. That ratio is the highest in nearly thirty years, both for new and resale housing
(Exhibit 2).
New housing prices are now 3-1/2 times household incomes. Existing housing is three times. After
adjusting for quality differences, the spike is not so dramatic, but the data clearly indicate that households are committing more of their income to housing as they buy bigger and fancier houses.
Are too many houses being built? A useful measure is the comparison of the number of new houses
to the increase in population.
As a long term average, the Arizona homebuilding industry supplies roughly 400 housing units for
each 1,000 increase in new residents. That’s 2-1/2 persons per household – close to the average number of persons per household in all existing housing. Today, about 550 housing units are being built for
each 1,000 increase in population (less than 2 persons per household). Ignoring the 1980’s, this has
been exceeded only once – during the late 1970’s bubble.
Should we worry about “investors” buying new houses? It is estimated that 15-20% of home sales in
Phoenix new housing subdivisions are to investors.
As 2004 comes to a close, many builders are wisely limiting sales to “investors,” who are now turning

The main explanation for slow overall job creation is
the continuing slide in manufacturing and telecommunications industries.
2.

to the resale market. Instances of multiple offers for full-price-plus are becoming commonplace, and
MLS stats for average days on the market has fallen to a little more than 5 weeks.
According to real estate analysts, an “unbelievable” amount of money is currently flowing into
Arizona real estate from out-of-state buyers who consider local prices to be cheap. Land prices are
soaring, deals are being done simply because the financing “works,” and new homes are being rationed
via lotteries. These are not good signs for the long-term health of real estate markets.
Bubbles are notoriously difficult to detect until after they burst, but most analysts conclude that
presently there are only a few markets nationwide that are experiencing housing bubbles. Arizona’s
housing markets are not on the list, but it’s clear that homebuilding is above trend and that the risk of
a bad ending is higher today than at any time in recent memory.

The path for Arizona’s home building activity in 2005
and beyond depends on four key items:
• The flow of money into housing has been phenomenal. Any disruption in mortgage lending (such as
the failure of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac), or sudden withdrawal of “investors” from the market
could precipitate a bad ending.
• Higher prices and rising interest rates will hurt affordability, and that will slow homebuilding. We
expect interest rates to rise, but gradually. The key diver of affordability in recent months is rapid
price increases, which have already seriously lowered affordability.
• Inventories in housing remain very low – less than a three month supply. A surge of vacancies in
existing housing (including apartments) or in the number of unsold new houses could be the first
indication of trouble.
• Population growth (and new household formation) has remained high during the past recession. We
expect both to move higher during 2005 and that will provide solid support for housing.
All things considered, our forecast calls for a modest downturn in homebuilding in ’05, although the
total number for the entire year may be higher than ’04 (the new year begins at a very high level].
As a result, the construction industry is expected to have a neutral effect on the economy in ’05, and
then become a drag the following year.

Next Year Will Bring More
Balanced Growth
Our forecast for Arizona calls for much stronger
job growth during 2005. We expect manufacturing to stabilize and even add a few thousand jobs.
The same for the information industry, of which
telecommunications is part. It’s not that either
will drive the economy, but rather will no longer
be a drag. While professional & business services
will provide the most new jobs (followed by construction, retail trade and financial activities), the
fastest growing major sectors will be construction,
professional & business services and financial
activities.
Non farm employment will increase by 4.8%
statewide in 2005, compared to a 3.1% gain in ’04
– the same that’s expected for ’06. In absolute
terms, nearly 115,000 new jobs, net, will be created in ’05, and another 75,000 the following year.
Arizona’s population will swell by 185,000 next
year, a gain of 3.2%. The following year’s gain will
approach 200,000. Expect income gains in excess
of eight percent next year and retail sales nearer
seven percent. Next year will bring the largest
percentage increases this expansion. The following
year will see slower growth as the cycle matures
(See forecast tables on page 4).
New initiatives in biosciences that are quite
exciting include the Translational Genomics
Research Institute, in which the three Arizona
universities are major partners. T-Gen’s mission is
to discover genetic markers of disease and identify
new treatments. A second initiative is a partnership between the University of Arizona, SRI
International and the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration to speed the testing and approval
process for new drugs. Both projects hold great
promise for providing new industries that will
drive the economy into the future.
In summary, the Arizona economy will grow
rapidly in 2005 and a little less rapidly the following year. The economy continues to be driven by
large population gains and a flood of money into
real estate. How the current excesses in real
estate are resolved will determine in large part the
course of the expansion to come; A bad ending
would not be pretty, though likely not as severe as
the late 1980’s experience. Additionally, the manufacturing and information sectors need to regain
their footing, and our export base needs to start
growing again, for the economy to strengthen.

An “unbelievable” amount of money is currently flowing
into Arizona real estate from out-of-state buyers.
How will this episode of overinvestment end?

3.

F O R E C A S T
Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

T A B L E S
2004
160,699.3
6.9
37,950
3.8
65,315.5
8.6
5,791.0
2.9
87,834.0
24.1
2,358.6
3.1
372.5
4.0
1,986.3
3.0
455.0
2.1
331.8
4.8
237.0
2.3
400.7
1.7

2005
173,797.3
8.2
39,488
4.1
69,510.2
6.4
5,978.7
3.2
91,379.0
4.0
2,472.8
4.8
397.4
6.7
2,075.6
4.5
474.1
4.2
358.8
8.1
244.7
3.3
409.5
2.2

2006
185,507.4
6.7
41,012
3.9
72,622.1
4.5
6,174.7
3.3
81,712.0
-10.6
2,548.4
3.1
410.6
3.3
2,138.0
3.0
487.2
2.8
373.5
4.1
250.2
2.2
417.9
2.1

2007
196,708.0
6.0
42,599
3.9
75,499.4
4.0
6,357.5
3.0
73,866.0
-9.6
2,601.2
2.1
415.7
1.3
2,185.6
2.2
495.4
1.7
382.3
2.3
255.5
2.1
424.6
1.6

2008
208,350.1
5.9
44,207
3.8
78,679.8
4.2
6,535.5
2.8
71,485.0
-3.2
2,649.2
1.8
417.3
0.4
2,232.1
2.1
503.5
1.6
390.3
2.1
260.8
2.1
430.5
1.4

2009
221,528.5
6.3
45,871
3.8
82,252.7
4.5
6,716.2
2.8
70,943.0
-0.8
2,705.9
2.1
420.8
0.8
2,285.4
2.4
513.4
2.0
400.6
2.6
266.7
2.3
438.6
1.9

2010
236,594.0
6.8
47,622
3.8
86,415.9
5.1
6,904.2
2.8
71,821.0
1.2
2,776.8
2.6
427.8
1.7
2,349.3
2.8
526.1
2.5
414.6
3.5
273.2
2.4
449.9
2.6

110,316.0
6.6
43,073
3.8
44,856.9
8.7
3,714.4
3.2
67,268
22.6
1,671.7
3.2
271.9
3.3
1,399.8
3.2
342.9
4.1
273.8
6.3
163.3
3.9
219.7
1.4

119,217.9
8.1
44,794
4.0
47,708.5
6.4
3,838.5
3.3
70,058
4.1
1,751.5
4.8
289.1
6.3
1,462.4
4.5
358.0
4.4
291.1
6.3
169.7
3.9
224.7
2.3

128,038.7
7.4
46,728
4.3
49,572.3
3.9
3,968.2
3.4
61,559
-12.1
1,813.0
3.5
300.6
4.0
1,512.4
3.4
370.2
3.4
304.5
4.6
173.7
2.4
229.5
2.2

136,981.2
7.0
48,826
4.5
51,996.9
4.9
4,091.5
3.1
53,405
-13.2
1,859.2
2.6
302.7
0.7
1,556.6
2.9
380.3
2.8
314.5
3.3
178.1
2.5
233.7
1.8

146,436.7
6.9
50,976
4.4
54,697.7
5.2
4,210.9
2.9
51,866
-2.9
1,898.0
2.1
300.7
-0.6
1,597.4
2.6
389.7
2.5
322.1
2.4
182.8
2.7
237.5
1.6

157,309.8
7.4
53,160
4.3
57,729.8
5.5
4,331.7
2.9
52,383
1.0
1,943.3
2.4
304.1
1.1
1,639.3
2.6
399.8
2.6
329.2
2.2
188.3
3.0
242.2
2.0

169,643.8
7.8
55,443
4.3
61,243.5
6.1
4,458.6
2.9
54,784
4.6
1,999.2
2.9
310.4
2.1
1,688.8
3.0
412.0
3.0
339.2
3.1
194.3
3.2
248.7
2.7

24,125.8
5.8
35,487
3.7
9,932.3
7.7
934.7
2.6
10,206
22.8
354.3
2.0
53.8
0.6
300.5
2.2
55.7
1.8
42.4
2.1
37.4
2.9
78.5
0.1

25,754.6
6.8
36,646
3.3
10,514.8
5.9
962.2
2.9
11,078
8.5
369.4
4.3
56.4
5.0
313.0
4.2
57.8
3.9
45.2
6.7
39.9
6.5
79.8
1.7

27,607.7
7.2
38,038
3.8
11,002.1
4.6
991.4
3.0
11,765
6.2
382.2
3.5
58.7
4.1
323.5
3.3
59.1
2.2
49.0
8.4
41.2
3.3
81.0
1.5

29,516.9
6.9
39,483
3.8
11,503.6
4.6
1,019.2
2.8
11,195
-4.8
392.7
2.7
60.0
2.2
332.7
2.8
60.3
1.9
52.3
6.6
42.4
2.9
82.2
1.5

31,643.2
7.2
40,958
3.7
12,071.9
4.9
1,046.1
2.6
10,830
-3.3
402.5
2.5
60.8
1.2
341.8
2.7
61.6
2.3
54.9
4.9
43.7
3.1
83.4
1.5

34,013.9
7.5
42,463
3.7
12,712.2
5.3
1,072.7
2.5
10,707
-1.1
412.1
2.4
61.2
0.6
350.9
2.7
63.2
2.6
57.2
4.2
45.1
3.3
84.6
1.5

36,531.5
7.4
44,004
3.6
13,367.9
5.2
1,099.2
2.5
10,644
-0.6
421.5
2.3
61.5
0.6
359.9
2.6
64.8
2.6
59.2
3.6
46.6
3.3
86.0
1.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
4.

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

22,825
19,075
3,750
16.4

22,500
18,800
3,700
16.4

23,275
20,000
3,275
14.1

23,450
20,600
2,850
12.2

23,350
20,700
2,650
11.3

8.9
10.3
-0.9
-9.0

2.0
2.7
-2.2
-4.0

19,200
6,525
625
18,575
2,050
3,850
12,675
3,125
9,550

18,575
6,375
725
17,850
2,000
3,650
12,200
2,775
9,425

19,950
6,600
750
19,200
2,000
3,850
13,350
3,125
10,225

20,825
6,650
775
20,050
2,000
3,875
14,175
3,150
11,025

20,900
6,600
775
20,125
2,000
3,825
14,300
3,100
11,200

8.4
5.2
19.2
8.1
6.7
2.0
10.0
6.9
10.9

1.7
1.8
-3.5
1.9
8.1
-0.3
1.6
2.5
1.4

12,293
6,133
961
5,199
2,573
5,000
979

11,803
5,590
1,070
5,143
2,667
7,279
1,268

11,837
5,551
999
5,287
2,749
8,908
1,197

12,165
5,364
1,027
5,775
2,936
6,902
1,270

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.9
2.7
7.1
20.5
13.5
-1.5
41.9

8.7
5.2
9.6
12.3
-0.8
-8.8
-6.6

14
14

11
11

8
8

7
7

6
6

-33.3
-33.3

38.5
38.5

38,275
33,675
4,600
12.0

38,650
34,000
4,650
12.0

39,050
34,750
4,300
11.0

38,525
34,550
3,975
10.3

38,025
34,350
3,675
9.7

6.2
6.3
5.0
-1.1

3.5
3.7
2.2
-1.2

29,225
18,550
3,250
825
1,650
775
25,975
5,750
675
825
1,000
3,250
2,975
825
10,675
1,800
8,875

28,875
18,525
3,300
825
1,700
775
25,575
5,750
675
825
1,025
3,075
3,050
825
10,350
1,675
8,675

29,925
18,950
3,275
825
1,675
775
26,650
5,725
675
850
1,050
3,450
3,075
850
10,975
1,800
9,175

30,075
18,650
3,200
825
1,625
750
26,875
5,625
675
825
1,025
3,475
2,975
850
11,425
1,850
9,575

29,875
18,450
3,200
825
1,625
750
26,675
5,625
650
800
1,025
3,475
2,825
850
11,425
1,800
9,625

4.5
3.5
-7.2
-13.2
-5.8
-3.2
6.2
1.4
8.3
0.0
10.8
15.8
2.7
13.3
6.3
12.5
5.2

2.6
3.9
-2.4
-8.3
1.7
-3.7
3.3
3.8
11.7
11.3
7.0
11.2
-0.5
2.1
0.6
2.4
0.3

80,827
60,469
7,071
13,287
6,577
15,717
3,092

75,352
55,064
7,770
12,518
6,491
13,089
3,251

76,387
57,859
7,132
11,396
5,924
13,320
2,932

78,227
59,713
6,822
11,693
5,944
15,874
2,676

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

13.3
15.3
-4.2
15.2
8.5
6.7
-4.9

8.4
5.9
5.1
24.9
11.4
5.3
-3.1

41
41

50
50

50
50

59
27

35
35

-16.7
-16.7

23.0
14.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

5.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

10,650
9,900
750
7.0

10,425
9,725
700
6.7

10,775
10,125
650
6.0

11,175
10,400
775
6.9

11,000
10,300
700
6.4

-1.3
-1.4
0.0
1.4

-1.9
-1.2
-11.1
-9.3

6,475
4,225
475
6,000
1,375
2,375
2,250
325
1,925

6,325
4,200
475
5,850
1,350
2,375
2,125
325
1,800

6,750
4,275
500
6,250
1,350
2,425
2,475
325
2,150

7,025
4,275
500
6,525
1,350
2,425
2,750
325
2,425

7,075
4,225
475
6,600
1,350
2,400
2,850
325
2,525

2.2
-0.6
5.6
1.9
-3.6
0.0
6.5
0.0
7.4

-1.3
-0.9
-3.5
-1.2
0.9
-1.4
-2.1
-5.6
-1.5

16,499
13,372
1,314
1,813
897
2,713

15,123
12,046
1,329
1,748
906
3,359

14,203
11,088
1,417
1,697
882
2,148

15,902
12,440
1,458
2,004
1,019
2,305

...
...
...
...
...
...

17.5
12.9
46.4
31.9
24.2
-21.9

4.4
4.2
0.6
8.6
-4.1
-17.7

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

3,675
3,500
175
4.8

3,750
3,575
175
4.7

3,700
3,525
175
4.7

3,650
3,450
200
5.5

3,675
3,500
175
4.8

0.7
2.9
-30.0
-30.5

-2.5
-0.3
-29.2
-27.2

3,375
2,825
2,250
1,125
225
350
550
50
500

3,450
2,900
2,300
1,150
250
350
550
50
500

3,425
2,875
2,300
1,125
250
325
550
50
500

3,425
2,875
2,325
1,100
225
325
550
50
500

3,525
2,975
2,400
1,125
250
325
550
50
500

5.2
5.3
5.5
4.7
11.1
0.0
4.8
0.0
5.3

-0.6
-1.4
-0.7
-0.4
-3.5
-4.2
3.6
20.0
2.1

11,104
10,424
235
444
220
713
421

4,981
4,304
255
422
219
673
269

8,853
8,194
191
468
243
972
394

8,247
7,618
209
420
214
1,515
372

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

37.6
41.3
14.3
0.6
-5.2
114.2
18.9

19.6
19.3
9.2
32.3
18.8
-35.5
5.0

86,600
84,225
2,375
2.7

86,350
84,000
2,350
2.7

87,125
84,800
2,325
2.7

86,600
84,175
2,425
2.8

87,425
85,050
2,375
2.7

4.8
5.2
-7.8
-12.0

4.3
4.7
-8.1
-11.9

56,075
45,275
10,000
1,150
5,600
3,250
46,075
10,025
675
2,025
4,575
9,025
7,275
1,675
10,800
1,300
9,500

55,175
44,950
10,000
1,175
5,575
3,250
45,175
10,000
675
1,975
4,450
8,925
7,225
1,700
10,225
1,325
8,900

56,450
45,375
10,025
1,150
5,650
3,225
46,425
10,075
675
2,000
4,550
9,150
7,150
1,750
11,075
1,325
9,750

57,125
45,525
10,000
1,175
5,600
3,225
47,125
10,225
675
2,000
4,325
9,250
7,300
1,750
11,600
1,300
10,300

57,425
45,725
10,050
1,175
5,675
3,200
47,375
10,450
650
2,000
4,350
9,250
7,200
1,775
11,700
1,300
10,400

4.0
4.3
2.6
17.5
1.8
-0.8
4.3
1.7
-3.7
5.3
8.8
8.5
2.9
7.6
2.6
0.0
3.0

4.0
3.6
2.0
15.3
1.5
-1.1
4.5
0.8
2.2
5.9
5.9
10.3
1.4
-1.5
6.0
2.6
6.4

147,938
113,823
18,648
15,468
7,656
55,820
6,949

143,836
109,765
19,064
15,007
7,781
59,972
7,064

144,673
111,598
18,515
14,560
7,569
53,240
6,516

143,527
110,150
18,892
14,484
7,363
54,975
8,755

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.7
10.7
9.8
12.2
5.7
26.9
35.0

10.0
9.8
6.7
16.5
4.2
12.9
-0.3

330
308

528
410

262
248

250
236

262
258

7.8
14.2

20.9
24.9

* Includes Graham County data.
COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

70,675
66,050
4,625
6.5

72,300
67,600
4,700
6.5

71,125
66,925
4,200
5.9

70,400
66,500
3,900
5.5

69,525
65,825
3,700
5.3

3.3
3.5
0.0
-3.2

2.4
2.6
-0.3
-2.5

59,350
41,300
5,950
125
2,775
3,050
53,400
9,400
525
1,550
3,350
7,125
11,675
1,725
18,050
3,450
14,600

59,650
41,525
6,050
125
2,850
3,075
53,600
9,450
525
1,550
3,300
7,075
11,875
1,700
18,125
3,500
14,625

59,750
41,550
6,025
125
2,800
3,100
53,725
9,375
550
1,575
3,375
7,200
11,725
1,725
18,200
3,675
14,525

60,550
41,450
6,025
125
2,775
3,125
54,525
9,425
550
1,550
3,275
7,325
11,550
1,750
19,100
3,625
15,475

60,375
41,275
6,350
125
2,900
3,325
54,025
9,400
500
1,500
3,300
7,375
11,125
1,725
19,100
3,325
15,775

1.6
2.8
8.1
-16.7
3.6
13.7
0.8
-2.6
11.1
3.4
8.2
7.3
0.2
1.5
-1.0
-1.5
-0.9

1.3
2.6
3.2
-14.3
3.1
4.2
1.1
0.5
7.7
1.0
7.1
6.3
1.0
-0.4
-1.3
-3.0
-0.9

137,673
89,142
27,015
21,516
10,650
27,608
21,022

136,758
88,127
27,584
21,047
10,913
24,867
23,019

127,048
81,377
26,934
18,737
9,740
26,053
20,541

122,744
79,364
25,903
17,478
8,885
26,793
19,985

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.1
11.0
10.2
6.1
-0.1
-20.7
9.2

7.1
6.6
7.7
8.8
-5.1
-1.1
9.9

74
74

105
105

69
69

56
53

70
70

-2.8
2.9

-16.8
19.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
6.

YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

7.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

18,675
17,400
1,275
6.8

18,925
17,725
1,200
6.3

19,175
18,000
1,175
6.1

19,000
17,725
1,275
6.7

18,875
17,675
1,200
6.4

0.7
1.6
-11.1
-11.7

-1.0
0.1
-14.8
-13.9

13,575
8,675
2,025
11,550
2,100
4,550
4,900
600
4,300

13,600
8,800
2,025
11,575
2,075
4,700
4,800
625
4,175

13,900
8,775
2,000
11,900
2,075
4,700
5,125
600
4,525

13,850
8,625
1,975
11,875
2,050
4,600
5,225
600
4,625

13,775
8,575
1,950
11,825
2,050
4,575
5,200
525
4,675

-0.7
-3.1
-6.0
0.2
-4.7
-1.1
3.5
0.0
3.9

-1.0
-1.5
-6.7
0.1
-0.6
0.6
-0.2
-4.9
0.4

31,256
21,458
4,438
5,360
2,653
10,129
1,023

29,316
19,518
4,680
5,118
2,654
7,846
1,172

29,411
19,417
4,564
5,431
2,823
8,011
994

28,763
19,085
4,352
5,326
2,708
9,435
916

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

1.2
-2.6
12.0
8.3
2.0
16.9
-2.9

5.3
1.0
7.1
25.0
12.7
10.6
4.6

79,600
76,450
3,150
4.0

81,025
78,075
2,950
3.6

80,900
78,000
2,900
3.6

80,950
78,025
2,925
3.6

82,000
79,075
2,925
3.6

7.0
8.3
-19.3
-24.6

5.0
6.0
-13.7
-17.7

47,400
40,550
9,050
100
5,500
3,450
38,350
10,675
900
2,100
3,850
5,450
6,350
2,175
6,850
550
6,300

47,050
40,550
8,950
100
5,400
3,450
38,100
10,600
900
2,125
3,825
5,550
6,425
2,175
6,500
525
5,975

48,050
40,850
9,125
100
5,525
3,500
38,925
10,600
875
2,100
3,875
5,725
6,325
2,225
7,200
525
6,675

48,575
41,075
9,150
100
5,475
3,575
39,425
10,725
875
2,100
3,925
5,800
6,300
2,200
7,500
525
6,975

48,700
41,200
9,125
100
5,475
3,550
39,575
10,900
850
2,100
3,900
5,950
6,225
2,150
7,500
525
6,975

3.9
3.9
-5.2
0.0
-9.9
2.9
6.2
2.3
0.0
7.7
16.4
6.3
11.2
6.2
3.8
5.0
3.7

2.6
3.5
0.1
0.0
-2.7
5.1
3.2
1.7
1.0
11.2
9.7
0.3
10.3
3.4
-2.3
1.2
-2.6

146,532
110,738
14,957
20,838
10,314
47,547
4,528

145,435
106,753
16,005
22,677
11,758
47,032
4,719

133,813
98,865
13,844
21,104
10,971
46,500
4,106

139,474
103,030
15,946
20,499
10,420
51,101
3,888

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

13.6
9.6
18.2
33.9
26.1
52.8
21.1

11.7
10.4
9.7
22.0
8.2
42.5
11.8

316
310

380
340

437
403

351
319

283
273

-13.5
-6.2

7.0
12.4

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
8.

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

7,200
6,725
475
6.6

6,875
6,425
450
6.5

6,775
6,300
475
7.0

6,700
6,200
500
7.5

6,550
6,075
475
7.3

-5.8
-7.3
18.8
26.0

-1.0
-1.3
2.8
3.9

4,875
2,525
375
4,500
1,050
1,100
2,350
200
2,150

4,700
2,525
375
4,325
1,075
1,075
2,175
200
1,975

4,725
2,475
325
4,400
1,075
1,075
2,250
225
2,025

4,700
2,450
300
4,400
1,075
1,075
2,250
225
2,025

4,725
2,500
300
4,425
1,100
1,100
2,225
225
2,000

0.0
7.5
20.0
-1.1
2.3
10.0
-7.3
50.0
-11.1

-0.6
-2.7
5.7
-1.0
-9.3
2.4
1.8
19.5
0.5

16,343
8,974
1,826
5,543
2,744
2,402
463

15,240
7,592
2,001
5,647
2,928
1,962
588

14,254
7,326
1,671
5,258
2,733
1,356
491

13,534
7,334
1,714
4,486
2,280
1,600
400

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.9
17.2
4.8
18.5
11.6
-6.6
-11.5

13.5
11.3
10.1
19.2
6.5
58.8
1.2

78,450
56,850
21,600
27.5

79,825
55,950
23,875
29.9

81,350
57,075
24,275
29.8

80,075
57,975
22,100
27.6

77,850
59,475
18,375
23.6

3.9
2.9
7.0
3.0

1.3
2.2
-1.7
-2.8

43,725
31,750
6,050
25
4,175
1,850
37,675
8,125
950
1,225
4,075
5,700
4,250
1,375
11,975
2,925
9,050

42,900
31,625
6,050
25
4,200
1,825
36,850
8,050
925
1,200
4,050
5,675
4,275
1,400
11,275
2,950
8,325

44,600
31,825
6,050
25
4,250
1,775
38,550
8,000
950
1,200
3,975
5,875
4,375
1,400
12,775
2,950
9,825

45,650
32,450
6,125
25
4,325
1,775
39,525
8,200
950
1,275
4,150
5,900
4,450
1,400
13,200
2,925
10,275

47,625
34,225
6,225
25
4,375
1,825
41,400
9,375
925
1,300
4,200
6,025
4,700
1,475
13,400
2,925
10,475

7.6
9.0
1.6
0.0
17.4
-23.2
8.5
13.6
-9.8
2.0
11.3
8.6
15.3
11.3
4.1
4.5
4.0

2.6
2.6
4.3
0.0
15.0
-10.6
2.3
-1.2
-2.5
-4.1
13.2
5.3
-0.1
-0.1
2.5
3.5
2.2

102,780
76,507
11,245
15,028
7,439
38,770
2,256

98,090
72,808
10,299
14,983
7,769
30,672
2,310

99,112
74,683
10,019
14,409
7,490
33,309
2,206

110,407
85,209
10,751
14,447
7,344
31,875
2,568

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

17.4
18.0
15.8
15.5
8.7
25.0
-1.0

9.7
8.8
9.4
15.7
2.5
26.8
11.1

252
165

168
168

233
233

188
188

248
184

53.1
13.6

30.3
28.2

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

9.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
JUN
2004

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

15,050
13,275
1,775
11.8

15,125
12,675
2,450
16.2

15,600
12,950
2,650
17.0

15,750
12,800
2,950
18.7

15,675
12,975
2,700
17.2

3.0
1.4
11.3
8.1

2.6
2.3
4.6
2.1

12,650
9,275
1,350
11,300
5,100
2,825
3,375
1,175
2,200

11,850
8,725
1,325
10,525
4,575
2,825
3,125
1,175
1,950

12,250
8,700
1,400
10,850
4,475
2,825
3,550
1,150
2,400

12,250
8,675
1,375
10,875
4,450
2,850
3,575
1,150
2,425

12,450
8,950
1,350
11,100
4,775
2,825
3,500
1,100
2,400

1.0
1.7
0.0
1.1
1.1
3.7
-0.7
-4.3
1.1

1.7
0.8
-1.8
2.1
1.8
0.3
4.1
1.8
5.2

32,476
24,683
3,093
4,700
2,327
6,811
874

30,639
22,938
2,842
4,859
2,519
4,584
564

30,700
23,212
2,636
4,851
2,522
6,336
547

29,487
22,262
2,533
4,693
2,386
6,626
1,056

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.0
9.7
21.5
5.7
-0.5
1.9
65.8

7.7
5.7
4.5
22.1
9.9
19.1
9.7

54
54

62
60

48
46

9.1
35.3

10.6
15.3

53
53

39
36

47,075
45,125
1,950
4.1

47,325
45,300
2,025
4.3

47,500
45,575
1,925
4.1

47,650
45,650
2,000
4.2

47,900
46,000
1,900
4.0

4.0
4.4
-3.8
-7.5

1.5
2.6
-17.9
-19.1

34,225
22,825
3,250
50
2,275
925
30,975
6,325
450
925
3,550
3,775
3,475
1,075
11,400
4,900
6,500

34,000
23,075
3,275
25
2,325
925
30,725
6,225
475
950
3,700
3,850
3,525
1,075
10,925
5,000
5,925

34,750
23,200
3,325
25
2,350
950
31,425
6,250
450
950
3,750
3,825
3,575
1,075
11,550
5,050
6,500

35,350
23,325
3,450
25
2,350
1,075
31,900
6,325
450
925
3,675
3,800
3,600
1,100
12,025
5,000
7,025

35,750
23,650
3,625
25
2,475
1,125
32,125
6,425
450
950
3,650
3,800
3,625
1,125
12,100
4,900
7,200

4.6
4.9
9.0
-50.0
8.8
12.5
4.1
4.0
-5.3
8.6
7.4
4.8
0.7
4.7
4.1
3.7
4.3

2.1
2.1
1.4
-16.7
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.3
-4.8
4.8
4.3
5.4
-2.1
-0.6
2.3
5.8
-0.1

73,748
55,624
9,004
9,120
4,514
17,773
2,040

73,319
54,720
8,900
9,699
5,029
17,008
2,199

73,921
55,449
8,530
9,942
5,168
19,337
2,038

70,929
53,155
7,921
9,854
5,009
18,111
2,007

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

3.2
-0.1
2.6
26.4
19.1
-0.8
4.7

8.7
4.0
18.1
36.7
20.2
6.5
15.3

89
89

85
85

76
76

-2.6
-2.6

24.5
23.6

97
97

92
92

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

431.6
415.0
16.6
3.7

431.0
414.7
16.3
3.5

433.5
418.0
15.5
3.5

437.9
421.2
16.7
3.8

442.8
426.1
16.7
3.8

3.6
3.8
-1.8
-5.0

1.8
2.5
-13.3
-14.9

344.9
1.2
23.6
28.5
5.3
11.3
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
15.5
41.4
47.4
4.8
7.6
24.4
15.0
10.1
63.8
40.4

338.1
1.2
23.6
28.4
5.3
11.3
7.3
38.5
7.9
7.7
15.6
41.5
47.3
4.6
7.5
23.9
15.0
10.1
58.0
34.5

344.4
1.2
23.8
28.4
5.3
11.3
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
16.0
41.8
47.6
4.5
7.6
24.4
14.8
10.4
62.3
39.5

352.9
1.3
24.0
28.3
5.3
11.2
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
16.2
42.3
48.0
4.7
7.8
24.9
14.8
10.3
68.7
46.2

358.2
1.3
24.6
28.2
5.2
11.1
7.2
39.4
8.0
7.8
16.5
42.6
48.3
4.8
8.2
25.3
14.8
10.4
70.8
48.4

2.3
18.2
6.0
-1.1
-1.9
-2.6
0.0
-0.3
3.9
2.6
7.8
0.9
3.9
-7.7
10.8
6.8
2.1
5.1
0.1
1.5

1.4
-2.1
3.3
-1.8
-2.3
-2.9
-0.2
0.7
0.8
1.4
4.2
1.2
5.1
0.8
4.1
1.4
1.7
5.9
-1.2
0.9

799,480
535,181
109,880
93,855
60,564
159,880
19,126

781,107
529,106
105,741
86,139
60,122
151,491
16,368

798,265
544,653
105,928
88,465
59,219
160,189
16,233

784,466
526,837
108,710
89,127
59,793
156,852
17,909

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.7
7.9
5.5
6.6
-1.1
11.1
9.4

8.6
6.9
18.8
8.8
7.0
9.3
3.6

937
856
81

1,212
892
320

1,039
856
183

918
848
70

828
716
112

0.9
-9.9
326.8

30.9
23.5
144.6

365,563
1,718
212,784

311,318
1,530
203,476

300,961
1,468
205,014

264,331
1,274
207,481

273,555
1,295
211,240

25.2
10.4
13.4

27.7
15.2
10.2

300,155
19,904

303,272
20,065

284,098
20,439

273,606
19,186

327,069
22,685

13.2
12.8

5.4
-3.2

III
2003

IV
2003

I
2004

II
2004

III
2004

914.0
1.3
3.2
1.9
4.5

919.9
1.2
3.2
1.9
4.7

925.8
1.2
3.2
1.9
4.7

931.8
1.2
3.2
1.9
4.7

937.7
1.2
3.2
2.0
4.7

2.6
-3.6
0.0
2.4
5.1

2.5
-0.2
0.8
1.4
17.2

22,896
15,508
1,771
106
4,877
4,176
25,050

23,263
15,745
1,804
108
4,967
4,247
25,288

23,631
15,982
1,837
109
5,057
4,319
25,524

23,961
16,204
1,868
111
5,129
4,385
25,715

24,291
16,425
1,899
112
5,201
4,451
25,904

6.1
5.9
7.2
5.8
6.6
6.6
3.4

5.3
5.4
6.6
5.6
4.6
6.2
2.6

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
10.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

11.

A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

1,855.6
1,778.2
77.4
4.0

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

1,864.1
1,791.6
72.5
3.7

1,867.8
1,794.8
73.0
3.7

1,860.9
1,784.0
76.9
4.0

1,872.6
1,797.7
74.9
4.0

3.2
3.8
-9.2
-11.1

2.3
3.4
-17.7
-19.2

1,639.7
2.0
145.0
101.5
13.1
35.3
14.5
26.8
76.2
194.6
8.0
51.5
35.2
102.6
33.1
265.5
27.6
143.0
20.1
26.8
110.1
63.1
21.6
185.4
86.7

1,622.6
2.0
145.8
101.3
13.0
35.4
14.5
26.5
75.7
193.6
8.1
51.5
34.9
102.4
32.8
265.7
26.1
142.4
19.3
26.2
107.5
63.2
21.7
175.9
77.2

1,644.1
2.0
146.4
101.5
13.1
35.2
14.6
26.6
75.7
194.4
8.1
51.4
34.0
102.6
32.9
266.9
27.8
142.7
19.3
26.1
108.6
63.4
21.8
191.9
94.3

1,660.8
2.0
147.1
101.4
13.0
34.9
14.7
26.7
75.6
194.1
8.0
51.5
33.5
102.8
32.9
265.8
29.1
143.0
19.9
26.5
109.5
63.6
21.8
206.0
108.9

1,678.9
2.1
147.9
101.5
13.1
34.8
14.7
26.6
75.5
197.3
8.0
52.9
33.8
103.6
33.1
268.0
30.0
143.0
20.5
27.3
111.5
63.7
22.0
210.6
112.2

2.4
5.0
9.6
0.5
2.3
-2.8
0.0
-2.6
-2.3
2.3
0.0
1.3
-7.7
1.6
0.0
1.8
11.5
2.4
2.0
3.4
2.8
3.7
1.9
3.0
3.6

2.4
0.8
10.3
-1.1
1.5
-6.2
-0.8
-2.2
-1.9
3.1
2.3
0.0
-6.2
1.9
0.0
2.6
14.6
3.4
0.1
0.9
2.0
1.7
0.0
2.2
4.0

3,718,399
2,562,574
474,480
424,068
257,277
919,725
67,364

3,583,966
2,428,935
456,604
388,755
309,672
856,040
54,506

3,531,867
2,420,951
457,412
392,918
260,585
942,756
54,362

3,668,377
2,532,928
469,427
409,204
256,817
933,217
71,104

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.3
11.8
6.3
5.7
10.2
20.5
20.0

10.7
8.7
22.1
8.7
15.9
17.8
6.1

5,939
5,590
214
135

7,038
6,291
109
638

5,282
4,998
160
124

5,284
4,761
62
461

5,238
4,510
70
658

1.9
15.3
-76.2
-29.8

23.9
25.8
117.4
0.4

2,245,461
9,530
235,620

1,937,221
8,684
223,079

1,947,960
8,695
224,032

1,893,821
8,351
226,778

1,833,257
7,836
233,953

0.0
26.1
-20.7

29.7
20.4
7.4

3,430,314
44,831

3,591,777
46,027

3,373,538
46,073

3,022,417
44,372

3,391,626
46,218

7.7
-0.9

4.5
-0.2

SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Center,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border
Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

III
2003

IV
2003

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTY) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,613.0
3,642.0
9.1
9.0
Natural Increase
Births
15.3
15.3
Deaths
6.2
6.2
19.5
19.9
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
104,156
105,967
83,668
85,185
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
9,271
9,470
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-24
-23
16,151
16,398
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
13,632
13,877
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
28,828
29,096
ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2004

II
2004

III
2004

3,670.9
8.9
15.3
6.3
20.0

3,699.9
8.9
15.3
6.4
20.1

3,728.9
8.9
15.3
6.4
20.1

3.2
-2.3
0.1
3.8
3.1

3.2
0.5
1.3
2.3
6.7

107,752
86,664
9,665
-22
16,649
14,126
29,353

109,461
88,126
9,855
-20
16,848
14,363
29,585

111,171
89,589
10,046
-19
17,046
14,599
29,813

6.7
7.1
8.4
22.9
5.5
7.1
3.4

6.2
6.8
8.0
22.2
3.8
7.0
2.9

5,649.2
12.1
22.9
10.8
26.5

5,687.9
11.7
22.7
11.1
27.2

5,727.9
12.7
23.2
10.5
28.4

5,769.8
12.4
22.9
10.4
30.1

5,813.0
12.1
23.1
11.0
31.8

2.9
0.1
0.8
1.7
20.2

2.8
2.6
2.2
1.7
8.2

151,187
115,664
12,745
574
24,218
23,476

154,208
118,088
12,980
578
24,893
23,629

156,119
120,047
13,394
588
24,652
24,228

158,759
122,051
13,586
599
24,995
24,703

161,532
124,431
13,832
611
25,287
25,037

6.8
7.6
8.5
6.5
4.4
6.6

6.6
7.6
7.7
6.0
2.5
6.9

84,364
18,014
13,461
521
12,939
26,763
36,076

85,788
18,480
13,696
581
13,116
27,112
36,517

87,089
18,960
13,626
254
13,372
27,256
36,715

88,313
19,286
14,247
276
13,971
27,516
36,890

90,141
19,701
...
...
...
27,788
...

6.8
9.4
9.9
-40.1
11.8
3.8
3.0

6.6
9.4
10.0
3.2
10.2
3.7
4.0

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

2,170,094
150,768
736,351
1,282,975
143,981
21,216
83,346
39,419

2,337,590
184,739
847,198
1,305,653
168,105
21,681
107,342
39,082

2,112,926
141,772
763,912
1,207,242
150,260
20,619
92,615
37,026

1,842,045
138,362
681,790
1,021,893
145,283
21,812
96,132
27,339

1,388,757
132,608
504,359
751,790
191,922
29,984
135,400
26,538

-4.5
-5.6
1.8
-8.2
3.5
-3.2
7.7
-7.5

1.3
2.7
3.1
0.0
-2.4
2.8
-3.0
-5.3

707,138
1,665,706
870,014

745,539
2,080,925
924,847

644,137
2,066,265
...

645,171
1,735,044
...

640,305
1,700,326
...

-12.8
-16.1
10.7

-8.8
0.4
-2.0

189.7
185.3

189.4
184.9

189.5
185.0

189.9
185.4

190.9
186.5

3.2
3.2

2.4
2.3

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.
12.

www.ebr.eller.arizona.edu

13.

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

AUG
2004

SEP
2004

OCT
2004

2,765.9
2,625.4
140.5
4.7

2,778.2
2,640.2
138.0
4.3

2,787.7
2,650.9
136.8
4.4

2,782.7
2,643.3
139.4
4.8

2,797.2
2,664.8
132.4
4.8

3.5
3.9
-5.3
-7.7

2.3
3.3
-13.4
-15.3

2,314.1
8.3
193.0
138.6
17.0
41.1
26.4
33.7
91.8
277.9
11.5
65.3
47.1
117.5
43.5
329.3
37.8
219.5
30.0
44.4
160.8
88.0
52.5
323.6
159.1
39.5

2,285.4
8.5
194.0
138.3
17.0
41.3
26.4
33.3
91.0
276.3
11.5
65.3
46.8
117.4
43.2
329.2
35.3
219.0
29.0
43.6
157.8
87.9
52.4
305.6
140.6
39.3

2,322.5
8.4
195.0
138.4
17.0
41.1
26.4
33.5
91.0
277.6
11.4
65.2
46.0
118.1
43.3
331.1
38.4
220.0
28.8
43.4
159.4
88.0
53.7
331.8
169.3
39.8

2,352.7
8.5
196.2
138.1
17.0
40.8
26.2
33.6
90.9
277.8
11.4
65.1
45.5
118.3
43.4
330.2
40.3
220.4
29.5
43.7
160.8
88.2
53.6
357.2
196.3
40.2

2,377.8
8.6
198.0
138.4
17.2
40.6
26.2
33.6
91.2
282.1
11.4
66.8
45.7
119.3
43.6
332.9
41.1
221.0
30.1
44.7
163.0
88.1
53.4
364.8
202.8
40.0

2.5
8.9
8.6
0.6
1.2
-2.4
-1.1
-3.4
-1.4
1.6
0.0
1.5
-6.0
2.1
0.5
2.1
10.5
3.1
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.7
4.7
2.6
3.8
-1.5

2.2
1.3
8.4
-0.8
1.7
-5.6
-1.6
-3.6
-1.2
2.5
1.6
-0.1
-4.7
2.1
0.1
2.7
13.4
3.9
3.3
1.8
1.6
1.4
3.0
1.0
2.4
-0.1

15.30
14.08
14.17
11.54
18.85
5,458,676
3,689,102
715,688
617,729
436,157
215,887
623,759
247,123
70,664
310,217
1,310,609
66,591
130,256

15.40
14.07
14.25
11.52
19.05
5,271,344
3,517,266
688,724
576,693
488,661
253,376
697,960
247,114
63,535
247,903
1,225,874
67,593
117,298

15.45
14.02
14.32
11.50
18.97
5,220,946
3,520,223
689,943
577,835
432,945
225,058
730,559
250,304
54,926
249,355
1,322,437
66,865
112,557

15.41
14.01
14.40
11.72
19.06

15.60
13.98
14.35
11.74
18.76

5,356,179
3,624,486
708,067
595,858
427,769
217,451
707,501
236,316
51,578
249,355
1,317,182
73,619
132,906

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

2.9
-3.3
6.7
2.4
7.2
9.9
11.1
6.9
6.6
10.1
3.7
4.9
5.2
13.6
-4.2
18.5
101.5
16.4

1.8
-1.2
4.8
1.6
10.1
8.7
8.2
7.5
8.7
15.5
2.4
7.6
-2.4
5.6
-1.5
16.2
97.7
5.9

7,971
7,465
251
255

9,514
8,353
180
981

7,430
6,966
214
250

7,781
6,543
153
485

7,032
6,150
94
788

3.5
12.2
-74.3
-17.2

25.1
26.3
50.7
1.2

2,771
2,288
14
469

2,583
2,150
17
416

2,741
2,269
14
458

2,544
2,081
18
445

2,446
2,017
18
411

-11.8
-10.6
5.9
-17.6

-2.9
-0.6
-27.4
-11.3

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2003

IV
2003

I
2004

II
2004

III
2004

189.1
184.6
180.3

188.7
184.6
180.3

190.8
186.3
181.9

193.0
188.9
184.5

193.2
189.6
185.1

2.2
2.7
2.7

1.9
2.3
2.2

106.2
105.7

106.6
106.0

107.3
106.9

108.2
107.7

108.4
108.0

2.1
2.2

2.0
2.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of page 12. • For additional detail and history, subscribe to Arizona Economic Indicators Data Book.

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