ARIZONA'S ECONOMY
O C T O B E R

2 0 0 4

LOTS OF NEARTERM UPSIDE
POTENTIAL
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 2004

T

he nation’s economy hit a
soft patch in the second
quarter. In Arizona, the rapid
acceleration of prior quarters eased a
bit as well, but the expansion remains
in place with a lot of upside potential,
and the second half will bring
renewed vigor.
The national economic soft spot was
evidenced by weak employment growth and
consumer pull-back, especially in spending
for new autos as incentives were scaled
back. Inflation moved higher, arguably
marking an end to 25 years of disinflation
(i.e., a slowing of price increases from
11.5% in 1980 to under 2% in 2003). Oil
prices remained above $40 per barrel,
which diverted household spending from
other items. (For each $10 bbl increase in
oil prices, inflation one year later is 0.7%
higher and growth in real GDP at least 0.3%
less, according to economic analysis firm
Global Insight.) Prices for food, energy,
and a host of other items climbed just as the
boost to household cash flow from federal
tax cuts and mortgage refinancing faded.
Early indications for the third quarter
show better results. Moreover, the
fundamentals are still clearly positive.
Consumer confidence stands at its highest
rating in over two years and is still rising.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
index remains at recent highs, help wanted
advertising is turning up and housing is still

F A L L

I S S U E

strong. Core inflation
EXHIBIT 1
remains below 2%, and Job Creation Moving Up
the recent run up in
Job Growth, AZ Establishment and Household Surveys
food and energy will
reverse in the second
half (top line inflation
fell 0.1 % in July as
gasoline prices
retreated). The Federal
Reserve Board is happy
with the economy and
in August raised the Fed
Funds Rate another
quarter point.
The threat of
terrorism remains the
biggest short-term risk.
Another risk is a jump
in oil prices above $50
bbl which, if sustained,
could lead to higher
inflation and a drag on
growth. In the longer
federal deficits do matter and that much
term, changing demographics (i.e., a
higher interest rates will force drastic cuts
growing elderly population) and associated
in federal spending for Social Security,
health care costs are the biggest issues,
Medicare, defense, education, and governaccording to a recent survey from the
ment itself. “We are borrowing from our
National Association for Business
kids and grandkids,” according to author
Economics (NABE). The report states,
and award-winning professor Dr. Gerald J.
“The time has come to tackle reducing the
Swanson, the Thomas R. Brown Chair in
federal deficit, now that it’s no longer
Economic Education at the University of
needed to stimulate the economy. Longer
Arizona’s Eller College of Management.
term, the costs related to the aging of the
“So far, neither candidate for president has
population dominate the challenges to
been willing to talk about budget issues
sustaining economic growth.”
and looming disasters in Social Security
A new book titled America the Broke
and Medicare,” he adds.
expands on this theme by arguing that huge
I N S I D E

See
Page 7

HOUSEHOLD INCOME
DISPARITY ..........................3
FORECAST TABLES ................4
HOUSING PRICES ..................7
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........9

ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

T UCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 2
Relief from High Gas Prices on the Way

EXHIBIT 3
Household Formation High and Rising

Gasoline Prices, AZ

Residential Electric Customers (TEP, SRP & APS Metro Service Areas)

WHICH MEASURE IS BETTER?
In recent months, an old question has
resurfaced: which measure of employment
should we believe? Critics of the current
administration cite lack of job growth in the
establishment survey (only 32,000 new jobs
nationwide in July 2004) while supporters
counter that the household measure surged
by nearly 630,000. This huge difference
holds very different connotations about the
economy’s health, considering the fact that
roughly 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs are
required each month to provide for new
entrants into the labor force.
These measures are based on different
concepts and separate surveys. The household survey, used in calculating the unemployment rate, estimates the number of people who are employed by place of residence.
The establishment survey, in contrast, estimates the number of non-farm jobs by place
of work. People holding multiple jobs
and/or working part-time versus full-time
accounts for some of the variation between
measures’ data, but the biggest difference
stems from the self-employed: the household
measure includes them, the establishment
survey does not.
Economists consider the establishment
survey to be the more accurate and reliable
indicator. Variability in the household
measure has revealed its shortcomings in
recent years, with gains swinging from
negative to positive and back again between
PAGE 2

1997 and 2000 while the economy was
expanding rapidly.
Arizona also shows a gap in these two
reports, but one not nearly as large as the
national gap. The household numbers show
over 90,000 jobs created during the past
year, while the establishment survey shows
54,000 (Exhibit 1).
Using the establishment survey, one can
conclude that Arizona has created over
50,000 jobs during the past year, about half
the number normally created during robust
expansions. The pace may have slowed in
the past couple months, but the trend for job
growth is clearly upward. Finally, it’s the
establishment survey that is used to rank job
growth by state, and most recently, Arizona’s
2.4% year-on-year growth ranks it among
the top four states.
Our forecasts continue to call for over
90,000 new jobs to be created this year (a
growth rate just shy of 4%). The largest
numbers (Forecast Table, page 4) will be in

ARIZONA HAS CREATED
OVER 50,000 JOBS DURING THE
PAST YEAR, ABOUT HALF THE
NUMBER NORMALLY CREATED
DURING ROBUST EXPANSIONS.

professional and business services (23,200),
retail trade (14,000), construction
(13,200), education and health services
(12,300), leisure & hospitality (9,200) and
financial activities (8,800).

GASOLINE PRICES WILL RETREAT
Oil prices continued to move upward in
recent weeks and are currently over $46 bbl.
Meanwhile, gas prices at the pump have
drifted downward in recent weeks as
summer demand turned out to be less than
expected. In June, regular-grade gasoline
sold for $2.02 per gallon in metro Phoenix,
compared to $2.20 in May. In mid-August,
prices declined to $1.87 per gallon
according to AAA, virtually identical to the
national average.
At these levels, prices remain well below
those of the early 1980s after adjusting for
inflation. In today’s dollars, prices in 1980
and 1981 exceeded $2.50 per gallon. We
expect pump prices to continue to move
lower over the next 18 months, falling to
near $1.60 per gallon in early 2006
(Exhibit 2).

ARIZONA’S POPULATION
CONTINUES TO SWELL
It’s not easy to gauge migration trends in
Arizona. There are no toll-booth sentries
counting the number of U-Haul trucks
exiting from Interstate 10. Measures such as
housing market activity, school enrollment,
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

“THE TIME HAS COME TO
TACKLE REDUCING THE
FEDERAL DEFICIT, NOW THAT IT’S
NO LONGER NEEDED TO
STIMULATE THE ECONOMY.
LONGER TERM, THE COSTS
RELATED TO THE AGING OF THE
POPULATION DOMINATE THE
CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINING
ECONOMIC GROWTH.”

and new driver’s licenses are often used in
estimating population changes. Perhaps the
best indicator of new household formation
is residential electric customer growth. For
each new household, a new housing unit is
needed, and that means a new electric
utility customer.
Exhibit 3 shows the year-on-year gain in
metro-area residential customers at
Arizona’s three largest electric utilities:

Arizona Public Service, Salt River Project and
Tucson Electric Power. Both Phoenix and
Tucson metro areas are included.
The graph shows that migration flows
were recession-resistant during 2001, unlike
the decade-earlier recession when customer
gain fell to less than 20,000. More
importantly, it shows that customer gain has
turned upward during the past year and is
now solidly above 50,000. Going forward,
as the economy expands and job growth
accelerates, household formation will
move higher.
Our forecasts call for Arizona’s population
to grow by nearly 164,000 (2.9%) this year
and by 195,000 (3.4%) in 2005. Look for
annual gains to stay near 200,000 for the
remainder of the decade, then accelerate as
members of the baby-boom generation begin
retiring. Arizona’s population will surpass six
million next year, seven million in 2010 and
eight million in 2014. In turn, population
growth will boost demand for housing and
jobs across all sectors.
Even with the soft patch of the second
quarter, expansion remains solid. Worldwide
growth is the strongest in decades, U.S.
consumers and businesses are confident and
spending, core inflation remains below 2% and
people continue to move to Arizona in droves.

Once the noise from the presidential campaign
abates, we’ll all feel better about the economy.
And hopefully we’ll find time to address
important long-run issues like the federal
budget deficit and the nation’s safety net. ■
F O R E C A S T
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Department of Commerce
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One
CB Richard Ellis
City of Glendale
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Pascua Yaqui Tribe
Pima Association of Governments
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers

HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISPARITY AMONG
ARIZONA COUNTIES, 1989 TO 1999
By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D.
The article below discusses highlights of
income distributions for the United States,
Arizona and Arizona counties for Census
1990 and 2000 (reporting figures for 1989
and 1999). For detailed information on all
areas, please see Exhibit 1, Page 6. For
summary statistics see Exhibit 2, Page 7.

ARIZONA BELOW NATIONAL
LEVELS BUT CLIMBING
In the United States, mean income grew
faster than the median income (47.3 percent
as compared to 39.7 percent) between 1989
and 1999, which indicates that households
in the upper half of the distribution outperformed households in the lower half. This is
reflected in the increase in the ratio of the
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

mean to median income from 1.28 to 1.35,
an increase of 5.4 percent.
While Arizona per household incomes
remained below the national mean and
median in both years, per household
incomes increased faster than the nation’s
between 1989 and 1999. In 1989, Arizona’s
mean and median incomes were both
approximately 92 percent of the corresponding U.S. figures. By 1999, Arizona’s median
income was almost 97 percent of the U.S.
median income, and Arizona’s mean income
was 95 percent of the U.S. mean.
The upper half of Arizona’s households
fared better than the lower half. However,
the disparity between upper and lower
halves did not worsen as much as it did in
the country as a whole: Arizona’s ratio of
mean-to-median incomes increased by 3.4

percent (from 1.29 to 1.33) compared to a
5.4 percent increase nationwide.

DISPARITIES BETWEEN
COUNTIES
Despite statewide gains, not all counties in
Arizona fared equally well.
The four counties with the highest median
incomes in 1989 continued to have the highest median incomes in 1999, with Maricopa
County reporting the highest median income
(nearly 12 percent above the state in both
years), followed by Greenlee, Coconino, and
Pima counties respectively.
The four counties with the lowest median
incomes in 1989 remained lowest in 1999,
with Apache County at the bottom of the list
(continued on page 5)
PAGE 3

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S

2004
161,733.2
7.5
37,981
3.9
65,675.9
9.3
5,793.8
2.9
74,988
6.0
2,379.6
3.9
374.7
4.4
2,005.0
3.9
462.4
3.6
340.1
7.0
237.5
2.4
400.9
1.8

2005
174,389.7
7.8
39,671
4.4
68,960.1
5.0
5,989.0
3.4
68,682
-8.4
2,489.0
4.6
386.8
3.2
2,102.2
4.9
485.6
5.0
365.5
7.5
246.2
3.7
413.3
3.1

2006
186,062.3
6.7
41,202
3.9
71,933.2
4.3
6,183.4
3.2
66,954
-2.5
2,570.9
3.3
395.5
2.2
2,175.6
3.5
500.4
3.0
381.1
4.3
253.1
2.8
423.3
2.4

2007
199,591.9
7.3
43,016
4.4
75,927.5
5.6
6,374.4
3.1
68,287
2.0
2,654.2
3.2
404.9
2.4
2,249.4
3.4
512.8
2.5
398.4
4.5
260.5
2.9
430.8
1.8

2008
214,070.4
7.3
44,963
4.5
80,263.9
5.7
6,569.4
3.1
70,425
3.1
2,738.1
3.2
413.2
2.1
2,325.0
3.4
524.9
2.3
414.2
4.0
267.2
2.5
438.4
1.8

2009
230,655.7
7.7
46,958
4.4
85,166.5
6.1
6,769.5
3.0
73,226
4.0
2,829.3
3.3
423.8
2.6
2,405.7
3.5
538.3
2.6
432.2
4.3
274.4
2.7
446.9
1.9

2010
249,762.1
8.3
49,084
4.5
90,950.5
6.8
6,979.7
3.1
77,947
6.4
2,939.2
3.9
437.4
3.2
2,501.8
4.0
555.9
3.3
455.8
5.5
282.8
3.0
459.0
2.7

111,840.0
7.1
43,140
4.0
44,933.3
9.2
3,710.4
3.1
59,622
8.7
1,678.1
3.9
274.3
4.3
1,403.9
3.8
341.7
3.9
269.3
5.5
163.9
4.3
219.1
1.2

121,048.5
8.2
45,156
4.7
47,055.0
4.7
3,836.9
3.4
54,860
-8.0
1,758.3
4.8
289.4
5.5
1,469.0
4.6
357.5
4.6
285.2
5.9
171.1
4.4
225.9
3.1

129,384.2
6.9
47,176
4.5
49,015.8
4.2
3,965.2
3.3
54,929
0.1
1,823.9
3.7
295.0
2.0
1,528.9
4.1
371.7
4.0
300.9
5.5
176.5
3.2
231.6
2.5

139,390.1
7.7
49,445
4.8
52,137.1
6.4
4,088.2
3.1
53,476
-2.6
1,887.9
3.5
303.0
2.7
1,584.9
3.7
383.3
3.1
313.5
4.2
182.9
3.7
235.5
1.7

149,980.2
7.6
51,857
4.9
55,163.6
5.8
4,210.1
3.0
52,915
-1.0
1,947.1
3.1
307.7
1.6
1,639.4
3.4
393.1
2.6
325.1
3.7
188.6
3.1
239.4
1.7

161,767.4
7.9
54,276
4.7
58,564.3
6.2
4,331.8
2.9
52,618
-0.6
2,007.7
3.1
313.9
2.0
1,693.9
3.3
403.1
2.5
335.9
3.3
194.6
3.2
243.7
1.8

174,536.6
7.9
56,825
4.7
62,285.0
6.4
4,458.5
2.9
53,599
1.9
2,078.0
3.5
322.2
2.7
1,755.8
3.7
414.7
2.9
349.5
4.1
201.2
3.4
249.9
2.5

24,129.4
5.8
32,566
4.0
9,975.1
8.4
931.6
2.3
8,903
7.1
352.8
1.7
53.9
1.2
298.9
1.8
55.1
1.3
42.9
2.7
38.0
2.6
77.3
-0.7

25,873.1
7.2
33,708
3.5
10,532.0
5.6
955.5
2.6
9,784
9.9
367.7
4.2
56.5
4.8
311.2
4.1
56.8
3.1
46.3
7.8
40.4
6.5
78.5
1.5

27,859.7
7.7
34,975
3.8
11,047.7
4.9
981.7
2.7
10,693
9.3
381.4
3.7
58.4
3.4
322.9
3.8
58.1
2.3
50.4
8.9
42.0
3.8
79.6
1.5

29,971.4
7.6
36,386
4.0
11,640.6
5.4
1,007.3
2.6
10,464
-2.1
394.5
3.4
60.9
4.3
333.5
3.3
59.1
1.7
53.7
6.5
43.4
3.4
80.8
1.5

32,133.4
7.2
37,883
4.1
12,212.7
4.9
1,032.1
2.5
10,138
-3.1
405.4
2.8
62.3
2.3
343.1
2.9
59.9
1.4
56.2
4.7
44.5
2.6
81.9
1.3

34,469.3
7.3
39,371
3.9
12,840.6
5.1
1,056.0
2.3
9,722
-4.1
415.1
2.4
63.2
1.4
351.9
2.6
60.8
1.5
58.3
3.8
45.7
2.6
82.9
1.2

37,107.4
7.7
40,896
3.9
13,541.0
5.5
1,079.6
2.2
9,667
-0.6
425.6
2.5
64.5
2.1
361.1
2.6
61.9
1.8
60.3
3.4
47.1
3.1
84.1
1.5

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona
PAGE 4

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

(continued from page 3)
(57.6 percent of the state in 1999), and
LaPaz, Graham, and Navajo ranking above
with Graham and Navajo counties switching
positions in the line-up.
Pima County’s median income fell from
92.2 to 90.6 percent as compared to the
state’s in 1989 and 1999 while mean figures
fell from 93.5 to 91.6. In contrast, median
income in Maricopa County was 10 percent
above the state in both years while mean
income was 11 percent above that of the
state in 1989 and 1999.
Coconino and Greenlee Counties, while
having incomes below the state, both outperformed Pima County. Greenlee County’s
median income was almost identical to the
state’s median income in 1989 (99.8 percent
of the state) but slightly deteriorated through
the decade to 97.1 percent by 1999.
Coconino County’s median income was 5
percent below the state’s median income in
both 1989 and 1999.

SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
AND LOSS
Over the decade, Pinal County enjoyed the
fastest growth in median income relative to
the state, undoubtedly due to its proximity to
Maricopa County. Pinal County’s median
income was 77.4 percent that of the state’s in
1989 and 88.4 percent in 1999.
Yavapai County’s median income grew

faster than that of the state’s between 1989
and 1999, with its county-to-state ratio
increasing from 80.1 to 86.1 percent, and
though one of the lowest-income counties in
the state, Graham County’s median income
relative to the state climbed from 67.0 percent in 1989 to 73.2 percent in 1999.
Three counties had significant losses in
median income relative to the state. Mohave
County’s median income fell from 87.7 percent of the state level in 1989 to 77.7 percent
in 1999. Santa Cruz County’s ratio fell from
80.1 percent to 73.3 percent, and Yuma
County’s figures dropped from 85.8 percent
to 79.4 percent over the decade.

ARIZONA’S LOWEST
PERFORMING COUNTIES
Apache, LaPaz, Graham, and Navajo
Counties reported the lowest per household
incomes in 1989 and 1990 despite some
gains over the decade.
Apache County continues to report the
lowest median income, reporting 51.2 percent as compared to the state in 1989 and
57.6 percent in 1999.
LaPaz County’s median income was 60.1
percent of the state’s in 1989 and 63.7 in
1999, showing a small gain, whereas Graham
County’s median income relative to the state
climbed from 67.0 percent in 1989 to 73.2
percent in 1999.
Navajo County’s median income remained
constant relative to the state over the decade,

EXHIBIT 1
Income Distribution of U.S., Arizona, Counties, 1989 and 1999

reporting a median income equal to 70.6
percent of the state’s in 1989 and 70.4 percent in 1999.

ABOUT THE CENSUS REPORTING
Income distributions contain the percentages of households within different income
categories. The distributions contain household income data for 1989 and 1999
because the Census asks respondents to provide information about the previous year’s
income.
The 1990 census income categories were
aggregated to match the 2000 categories
although the highest income categories from
both census years were retained. Thus, for
1990, the “$150,000 or more” category is
the highest income category. For 2000, this
category represents $150,000 to $199,999.
Median household income is considered
the best measure of the central tendency of
incomes. Half of all households have
incomes below the median income value and
half of all households have incomes above
the median income value.
Mean household income is the familiar
“average” income, computed by summing
the income across all households and dividing by the number of households. Mean
household income is strongly affected by
households in the upper brackets: A few
households with extraordinarily high
incomes can result in mean incomes that are
substantially higher than the median. ■
Summary Statistics

1989

U.S.
Arizona
Apache
Cochise
Coconino
Gila
Graham
Greenlee
La Paz
Maricopa
Mohave
Navajo
Pima
Pinal
Santa Cruz
Yavapai
Yuma

Median
Household
Income ($)

Mean
Household
Income ($)

30,056
27,540
14,100
22,425
26,112
20,964
18,455
27,491
16,555
30,797
24,002
19,452
25,401
21,301
22,066
22,060
23,635

38,453
35,426
20,331
28,041
32,206
26,349
23,831
28,271
23,540
38,996
29,902
25,167
33,127
26,000
29,852
28,523
29,912

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

1999

Ratio of Mean Median as % Mean as % of
to Median of AZ Median
AZ Mean
1.28
1.29
1.44
1.25
1.23
1.26
1.29
1.03
1.42
1.27
1.25
1.29
1.30
1.22
1.35
1.29
1.27

51.20
81.43
94.81
76.12
67.01
99.82
60.11
111.83
87.15
70.63
92.23
77.35
80.12
80.10
85.82

57.39
79.15
90.91
74.38
67.27
79.80
66.45
110.08
84.41
71.04
93.51
73.39
84.26
80.51
84.44

Median
Household
Income ($)

Mean
Household
Income ($)

41,994
40,558
23,344
32,105
38,256
30,917
29,668
39,384
25,839
45,358
31,521
28,569
36,758
35,856
29,710
34,901
32,182

56,644
53,926
30,712
41,455
48,723
40,820
36,998
42,628
34,360
59,655
41,092
36,904
49,415
44,702
42,913
46,398
42,912

Ratio of Mean Median as % Mean as % of
to Median of AZ Median
AZ Mean
1.35
1.33
1.32
1.29
1.27
1.32
1.25
1.08
1.33
1.32
1.30
1.29
1.34
1.25
1.44
1.33
1.33

57.56
79.16
94.32
76.23
73.15
97.11
63.71
111.83
77.72
70.44
90.63
88.41
73.25
86.05
79.35

56.95
76.87
90.35
75.70
68.61
79.05
63.72
110.62
76.20
68.43
91.63
82.89
79.58
86.04
79.58
PAGE 5

EXHIBIT 2 Income Distribution of U.S., Arizona, Counties, 1989 and 1999
Geography
Year
Households: Total #
Percent, by Income Category:
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 or more
$200,000 or more
Geography
Year
Households: Total #
Percent, by Income Category:
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 or more
$200,000 or more
Geography
Year
Households: Total #
Percent, by Income Category:
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 or more
$200,000 or more
PAGE 6

United States

Arizona

1989
1999
91,993,582 105,539,122
15.45
8.84
8.81
8.72
8.08
7.76
6.76
11.10
7.84
7.14
5.11
1.99
0.83
1.57

Cochise

Coconino

1999
1,901,625

1989
16,237

1999
19,932

1989
35,140

1999
43,896

1989
30,167

1999
40,386

15.54
9.91
10.07
9.57
8.69
7.95
6.85
10.61
7.10
6.19
4.09
1.57
0.61
1.23

8.58
6.35
6.74
7.16
7.05
6.92
6.43
11.07
9.08
10.12
9.68
4.70
2.19
1.89
2.03

40.67
11.23
8.65
8.07
5.88
5.63
4.61
6.98
3.57
2.67
1.56
0.34
0.04
0.11

27.10
10.30
7.67
7.28
7.93
6.08
5.47
8.48
6.20
6.28
4.21
1.69
0.76
0.24
0.33

21.26
12.86
10.69
9.52
8.36
8.09
6.64
8.84
5.24
4.76
2.35
0.72
0.36
0.31

12.39
8.59
8.66
8.61
7.87
7.39
6.02
10.96
8.23
8.72
7.19
2.80
0.91
0.98
0.68

19.54
9.77
9.10
9.63
8.54
7.99
5.97
10.59
6.97
6.08
3.41
1.35
0.38
0.69

10.61
7.03
6.70
7.34
7.37
6.35
6.53
10.85
9.23
9.74
9.78
4.00
1.81
1.37
1.28

9.54
6.31
6.25
6.57
6.44
6.37
5.91
10.62
9.04
10.43
10.23
5.20
2.52
2.20
2.37

Gila

Apache

1989
1,371,885

Graham

Greenlee

La Paz

Maricopa

1989
15,621

1999
20,165

1989
8,147

1999
10,120

1989
2,777

1999
3,131

1989
5,427

1999
8,392

23.69
11.27
12.75
10.18
9.42
7.30
6.55
7.43
5.08
3.41
1.06
1.15
0.13
0.60

12.35
10.04
9.28
9.01
8.09
6.87
6.25
10.84
8.10
8.03
5.82
2.23
0.94
1.02
1.12

26.34
14.24
13.28
10.51
6.63
7.02
6.08
6.14
3.95
3.57
1.36
0.37
0.20
0.32

14.91
10.77
8.69
8.86
7.20
6.69
6.06
11.21
8.50
8.50
5.31
1.55
0.78
0.70
0.28

16.49
10.62
7.89
10.12
11.06
12.57
11.24
9.07
4.43
3.24
3.02
0.25
-

9.29
6.52
6.10
6.87
6.42
6.87
8.97
16.42
9.74
11.98
7.95
1.60
0.35
0.70
0.22

30.33
16.05
11.65
9.45
7.19
5.93
4.29
6.36
3.19
2.62
1.49
0.53
0.41
0.52

15.84
10.44
10.99
10.93
9.04
6.76
7.55
8.83
6.35
5.53
4.11
1.67
0.77
0.61
0.58

12.48
8.65
9.32
9.37
8.66
8.11
7.28
11.64
8.05
7.24
5.00
1.94
0.74
1.54

1989
22,504

1999
30,055

1989
262,129

1999
332,497

1989
39,181

1999
61,413

1989
8,873

1999
11,821

28.81
11.74
10.60
8.07
7.00
6.71
5.73
9.47
5.71
3.35
1.73
0.56
0.14
0.40

18.60
8.93
8.88
7.89
7.36
6.83
6.49
9.64
7.06
7.66
6.32
2.28
0.88
0.66
0.52

17.90
10.96
10.72
9.64
8.77
7.83
6.44
9.65
6.18
5.45
3.38
1.30
0.65
1.12

10.29
7.17
7.42
7.98
7.38
7.31
6.47
10.89
8.55
9.15
8.39
3.93
1.74
1.61
1.73

22.23
13.06
11.68
10.66
9.20
7.56
6.45
8.07
4.81
3.35
1.87
0.66
0.10
0.29

10.29
7.50
7.80
7.65
7.81
7.47
7.41
12.26
9.13
9.14
7.22
3.04
1.32
0.99
0.97

21.55
12.46
12.26
8.75
7.92
7.36
7.01
8.66
5.11
3.98
2.77
0.96
0.24
0.98

13.36
10.05
10.07
8.24
8.81
7.38
4.52
9.42
7.46
7.78
5.85
2.88
1.51
1.50
1.18

Navajo

Pima

Pinal

Santa Cruz

Mohave

1989
1999
808,162 1,133,048

1989
36,778

1999
62,796

6.80
5.25
5.82
6.39
6.53
6.61
6.30
11.17
9.60
11.11
11.17
5.68
2.72
2.34
2.51

15.32
12.73
13.31
10.64
9.73
8.64
6.14
8.97
5.89
4.50
2.29
0.83
0.46
0.56

9.75
8.94
9.59
10.07
8.88
8.15
7.25
11.24
7.65
7.52
6.22
2.25
0.87
0.62
0.99

1989
44,915

1999
70,069

1989
35,827

1999
53,904

18.73
13.51
12.51
11.11
9.35
7.86
5.85
8.73
4.50
3.47
2.38
1.02
0.23
0.76

8.99
8.12
8.67
8.49
8.39
7.47
7.25
11.44
8.18
8.53
7.03
3.20
1.49
1.09
1.67

17.78
11.95
12.11
10.85
9.62
7.46
5.71
8.82
6.80
4.41
2.64
1.00
0.30
0.53

9.78
8.99
9.25
9.12
8.59
8.59
6.77
10.61
7.98
7.85
6.51
2.75
1.08
1.02
1.11

Yavapai

Yuma

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

HOUSING PRICES, AFFORDABILITY,
AND HOME OWNERSHIP IN
ARIZONA: 2ND QUARTER UPDATE
By Heather Peterson
Research Specialist
A strengthening economy and historically
low interest rates have contributed to
dramatic increases in home prices. Over
the past 5 years, homes in Arizona have
appreciated by 37.16% and nationally by
43.59%. Rising home values benefit home
owners and sellers, who see their property
asset appreciating, but how does this affect
home owners-to-be? How affordable are
Arizona’s homes and are rising prices
affecting our home ownership rates?

HOUSING PRICES AND
APPRECIATION IN ARIZONA
AND THE U.S.
Average home prices in Arizona increased
2.61% in 2nd quarter 2004 and 9.46% from
2nd quarter 2003 through 2nd quarter
2004, surpassing the national average for the
first time since 1998, and placing Arizona
17th in the nation and 3rd among western
states in home appreciation, preceded only
by Nevada, with its 7.53% quarterly increase
and staggering 22.92% gain for the year, and
California with 4.85% for the quarter and
18.39% for the year (Exhibit 1). Home
prices in the U.S. increased 2.21% in the
2nd quarter, reflecting an annualized rate
of 8.83% and yielding a 9.36% gain for the
year, the largest national yearly increase
since 1979, according to the Office of
Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s
Housing Price Index (HPI)1
(www.ofheo.gov/index.asp). During this
same time period, prices of other consumer
goods and services rose only 3.03%, as

OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS,
HOMES IN ARIZONA HAVE
APPRECIATED BY 37.16%
AND NATIONALLY BY 43.59%.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

measured by the CPI. After hefty gains in 4th
quarter 2003 (3.71% nationally and 3.6%
for Arizona), home appreciation rates
appeared to moderate in the 1st quarter
2004 with gains of only 1.45% nationally and
1.1% for Arizona. This apparent moderation
seems now to have disappeared, as home
prices resume their steep ascent.
The HPI is also computed for metropolitan areas. Home appreciation in Las Vegas,
AZ-NV MSA, continues to lead the nation with
a 2nd quarter increase of 8.12%, nearly
doubling the previous quarter’s 4.8% and
yielding a total appreciation for the year of
24.94%! In Tucson, home prices rose
2.75%, up sharply from the previous
quarter’s meager 0.27% increase, to gain
9.91% for the year. The Phoenix-Mesa MSA
wasn’t far behind more than doubling last
quarter’s 1% increase to gain 2.21% this
quarter and 8.16% for the year. Home values
in Flagstaff also rose sharply with appreciation at 13.39 for the year.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Arizona State University Real Estate
Center’s annual Housing Affordability
Index (HAI) (www.cob.asu.edu/seid/arec)
for single-family homes in metropolitan
Phoenix offers insight into what’s happening
to the affordability of homes in the Phoenix
Metro area.
An HAI index value of 100 means that a
family earning a median income has exactly
enough income to qualify for a mortgage on
a median priced home. An index value
above 100 indicates that a family has more
than enough income, while an index value
below 100 indicates insufficient income to
qualify. For example, an HAI value of 120
indicates a family has 120% of the income
necessary, and an HAI value of 86 indicates a
family earning the median income has only
86% of the income necessary to qualify.
In the resale home market, although
median home prices have steadily increased,
the HAI has also risen from 117 in 2000 to
126 in 2002, indicating an improvement in
affordability, good news for prospective

ACCORDING TO THE
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU’S
ANNUAL REPORT, HOUSING
VACANCIES AND HOMEOWNERSHIP ANNUAL STATISTICS
2003, 67% OF ARIZONA’S
HOUSEHOLDS OWNED THEIR
OWN HOMES...,
COMPARED TO A NATIONAL
AVERAGE OF 68.3%, PLACING
ARIZONA 41ST IN THE NATION
AND 8TH AMONG
WESTERN STATES.

home buyers. In the new home market, the
index has shown no improvement in affordability from 2002 to 2003, remaining constant at 113 in both years, indicating that an
average family would still only have 13%
more income than is necessary to quality for
a loan on a new median-priced home.
Nonetheless, this remains the most affordable new homes have been since 1984 when
the index was first calculated.

HOW HAS HOME OWNERSHIP
FARED IN ARIZONA?
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s
annual report Housing Vacancies and
Homeownership Annual Statistics: 2003,
67% of Arizona’s households owned their
own homes in 2003, compared to a national
average of 68.3%, placing Arizona 41st in
the nation and 8th among western states.
Arizona’s home ownership was reported at
68% in Census 2000 before decreasing to
65.6% by 2002, according to Census annual
reports. Historically, home ownership in
Arizona surged to a high of 69.3% in 1992,
(continued on page 8)
PAGE 7

(continued from page 7)
well above the US rate of 64.1%, and then
declined during in the 1990’s, reaching a
low of 62% in 1996.
Of Arizona’s immediate neighbors, Utah
has consistently had the highest home ownership rate hovering around 70% through
the 1980’s and 1990’s, then pulling up close
to 75% before declining to 66% in 2003. Of
states bordering Arizona, California has had
the lowest home ownership rate, although it
has been slowly increasing since 1984,
from less than 55% to close to 60%, still
well below the national rate.
The Census Bureau report also includes
data for metropolitan areas. According to
the report, the percentage of households

owning homes in Metro Phoenix reached an
all-time high of 70.7% in 2000, and
remained just below 70% in the subsequent
3 years. This was above the statewide rate
and well above a general home ownership
rate for “inside metropolitan areas” (Inside
MAs) included in the report as a standard
for comparison between metro areas.
Home ownership in the Tucson MA has
remained consistently below this Inside MA
rate, but has been improving, reaching a
high in 2001 with 64.4% of households
owning homes, and declining slightly by
2003 to 61.1%.
In 2003, the home ownership rate in the
Phoenix-Mesa MA placed the city 3rd
among 11 western metro areas. In 2003,

three metro areas were above the Inside MA
rate of 66.5%: Salt Lake City – Ogden, UT,
with the highest rate at 74.7%, followed by
Denver, CO, with 71.9% and Phoenix-Mesa
with 69.4%.
It would be reasonable to expect that low
mortgage interest rates would entice
households to consider becoming home
owners; on the other hand economic
concerns and increasing home prices,
possibly in response to increased demand,
might dampen this enthusiasm. In recent
years, it is encouraging to see that both
nationally and in Arizona and its metro
areas, home ownership and affordability
continue to be strong, even as home
values appreciate. ■

1The HPI is a “constant quality” index designed to capture changes in the values of single-family homes across the nation. To compute the HPI, OFHEO obtains quarterly information about conventional conforming mortgage transactions for the past 25 years on
an enormous number of properties nationwide from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The HPI tracks repeat sales, thus controlling for differences in the quality of houses. For this reason, it is preferred to other sources of home value information, such as local
Multiple Listing Services (MLS), which report a price for "homes sold" and can vary from one period to the next as the mix of expensive and inexpensive homes changes.

EXHIBIT 1
House Price Index Western States (2nd Quarter 2004) and Home Ownership Rates (2003 Annual)

House Price Index-Western States
2nd Quarter 2004
1 yr
% change
(03q2 to 04q2)

5 yr
% change
(99q2 to 04q2)

Since 1980
% change
(80q2 to 04q2)

Home Ownership
Rates

National Rank*

qtr
% change
(04q1 to 04q2)

Nevada

1

7.53

22.92

53.06

180.37

64.8

California

3

4.85

18.39

84.10

338.72

58.9

Arizona

17

2.61

9.46

37.16

160.60

67.0

Montana

18

2.04

9.43

34.03

175.99

71.5

*

2.21

9.36

43.59

218.03

68.3

Wyoming

22

2.54

8.22

33.23

99.61

72.9

Oregon

23

2.38

8.10

27.53

211.02

68.0

Washington

24

2.43

7.81

30.69

237.91

65.9

New Mexico

27

1.84

6.98

22.10

143.95

70.3

Idaho

31

2.71

6.23

21.37

143.97

74.4

Colorado

47

0.78

3.51

37.80

227.10

71.3

Texas

50

0.98

2.91

24.93

90.61

64.5

Utah

51

0.97

2.58

11.55

165.06

73.4

Western States

United States

2003 - Annual

*Ranking based on 1-year increase in home prices; national rank includes District of Columbia
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. House Price Index. September 1, 2004.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Annual Statistics: 2003. February 2004.
PAGE 8

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

22,050
19,200
2,850
12.9

22,325
19,375
2,950
13.2

22,400
19,500
2,900
12.9

22,825
19,075
3,750
16.4

22,550
18,825
3,725
16.5

1.2
3.6
-9.1
-10.3

-0.8
-0.9
0.0
0.6

19,625
6,225
500
19,125
1,950
3,775
13,400
3,025
10,375

19,800
6,350
550
19,250
1,950
3,850
13,450
3,025
10,425

19,900
6,475
575
19,325
1,975
3,925
13,425
3,125
10,300

19,200
6,525
625
18,575
2,050
3,850
12,675
3,125
9,550

18,600
6,400
725
17,875
2,000
3,675
12,200
2,775
9,425

2.3
1.2
3.6
2.3
8.1
-2.6
3.0
1.8
3.3

-1.7
1.3
-10.3
-1.4
7.6
0.3
-3.1
0.6
-4.1

11,451
5,511
667
5,274
2,702
5,008
702

10,709
4,459
931
5,319
2,645
4,895
566

12,289
5,203
956
6,130
2,785
-2,338
960

12,293
6,133
961
5,199
2,573
5,000
979

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.1
1.5
-0.6
13.6
-6.8
-34.5
-20.4

9.9
4.6
10.5
15.9
-3.2
-12.2
-4.7

8
8

9
9

20
20

14
14

11
11

57.1
57.1

48.7
48.7

36,250
32,450
3,800
10.5

36,700
32,750
3,950
10.8

37,200
33,450
3,750
10.1

38,275
33,675
4,600
12.0

38,700
34,050
4,650
12.0

4.8
6.5
-6.1
-10.4

2.2
2.1
2.8
0.6

28,650
17,525
3,100
800
1,525
775
25,550
5,450
600
900
1,000
3,175
2,525
775
11,125
1,575
9,550

28,925
17,825
3,150
850
1,550
750
25,775
5,550
625
825
1,000
3,225
2,675
775
11,100
1,625
9,475

29,525
18,200
3,225
850
1,600
775
26,300
5,700
650
800
975
3,200
2,850
800
11,325
1,725
9,600

29,225
18,550
3,250
825
1,650
775
25,975
5,750
675
825
1,000
3,250
2,975
825
10,675
1,800
8,875

28,950
18,625
3,325
825
1,700
800
25,625
5,800
675
875
1,025
3,050
3,050
825
10,325
1,675
8,650

5.0
4.9
-0.7
-8.3
3.0
0.0
5.8
4.5
17.4
16.7
10.8
9.9
0.8
3.1
5.1
1.5
5.8

1.2
3.7
-1.4
-6.8
2.9
-3.6
1.6
3.9
10.4
14.5
6.2
10.6
-1.2
-0.8
-2.6
-0.8
-3.0

66,969
49,927
5,723
11,320
5,799
8,739
1,926

65,128
48,595
5,106
11,427
5,683
10,970
1,778

74,968
56,207
5,936
12,825
5,827
20,177
2,484

80,827
60,469
7,071
13,287
6,577
15,717
3,092

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.4
12.8
3.3
30.6
7.1
5.1
1.5

5.8
1.0
6.1
36.8
15.3
10.4
-3.6

28
28

44
44

51
51

41
41

50
50

19.0
19.0

16.8
16.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 9

A R I Z O N A

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

10,925
10,225
700
6.4

10,925
10,225
700
6.4

10,650
9,925
725
6.8

10,650
9,900
750
7.0

10,525
9,800
725
6.9

-3.4
-2.2
-17.1
-14.2

-2.5
-1.6
-14.3
-11.9

6,950
4,250
475
6,475
1,375
2,400
2,700
300
2,400

7,000
4,250
450
6,550
1,400
2,400
2,750
300
2,450

6,700
4,275
450
6,250
1,400
2,425
2,425
300
2,125

6,475
4,225
475
6,000
1,375
2,375
2,250
325
1,925

6,375
4,225
475
5,900
1,350
2,400
2,150
325
1,825

-2.7
-1.7
-9.5
-2.1
-1.8
0.0
-4.4
-7.1
-3.9

-1.9
-0.6
-1.8
-1.9
1.7
-1.6
-3.9
-6.2
-3.6

15,120
11,961
1,413
1,747
895
2,522

14,939
11,954
1,317
1,667
829
1,815

16,250
12,741
1,493
2,017
916
2,381

16,499
13,372
1,314
1,813
897
2,713

...
...
...
...
...
...

14.3
14.1
-8.7
41.8
16.4
-26.9

3.8
4.9
-6.3
5.1
-11.6
-19.1

66,825
62,875
3,950
5.9

68,225
64,000
4,225
6.2

68,450
64,250
4,200
6.1

70,675
66,050
4,625
6.5

71,875
67,150
4,725
6.6

1.2
2.3
-12.1
-13.1

2.2
2.1
4.1
1.9

58,175
39,075
5,775
125
2,600
3,050
52,400
8,825
500
1,450
3,075
7,100
10,725
1,625
19,100
3,125
15,975

58,975
40,200
5,825
125
2,650
3,050
53,150
9,125
500
1,525
3,200
7,100
11,275
1,650
18,775
3,175
15,600

58,800
40,550
5,875
125
2,700
3,050
52,925
9,225
500
1,525
3,250
7,125
11,350
1,700
18,250
3,300
14,950

59,350
41,300
5,950
125
2,775
3,050
53,400
9,400
525
1,550
3,350
7,125
11,675
1,725
18,050
3,450
14,600

59,275
41,500
6,050
125
2,850
3,075
53,225
9,450
525
1,550
3,300
7,075
11,850
1,700
17,775
3,200
14,575

0.3
1.7
3.4
-16.7
3.6
4.2
-0.1
-1.0
10.5
0.0
8.2
5.6
-0.6
-1.4
-2.9
-9.9
-1.2

1.2
2.1
2.3
-10.0
2.6
2.6
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
7.2
5.0
0.7
-1.2
-0.8
-3.9
-0.1

114,798
75,190
21,336
18,271
9,361
20,736
13,089

116,526
76,752
22,603
17,171
8,539
21,759
16,199

131,726
86,703
24,082
20,942
9,515
24,830
18,789

137,673
89,142
27,015
21,516
10,650
27,608
21,022

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.8
6.4
6.2
32.9
9.0
1.0
2.4

6.8
6.1
7.2
9.1
-10.6
7.3
10.3

80
77

83
83

59
59

74
74

105
105

-7.9
26.5

31.7
14.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 10

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

JUL
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

3,550
3,350
200
5.6

3,525
3,325
200
5.7

3,575
3,375
200
5.6

3,675
3,500
175
4.8

3,750
3,575
175
4.7

-1.3
2.1
-41.7
-40.9

-3.7
-1.9
-24.5
-21.6

3,350
2,800
2,225
1,125
225
350
550
50
500

3,350
2,800
2,250
1,100
225
325
550
50
500

3,350
2,800
2,250
1,100
225
325
550
50
500

3,375
2,825
2,250
1,125
225
350
550
50
500

3,450
2,900
2,300
1,150
250
350
550
50
500

2.2
1.8
1.1
4.5
11.1
0.0
4.8
0.0
5.3

-2.2
-2.9
-2.0
-2.6
-7.6
-5.3
1.6
20.0
0.0

7,246
6,574
235
438
224
1,542
374

7,171
6,546
187
438
218
1,188
588

7,781
7,037
259
485
220
507
376

11,104
10,424
235
444
220
713
421

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

88.9
92.5
5.9
83.1
50.2
-56.2
-0.0

16.4
15.7
4.2
39.3
17.6
-52.1
0.0

84,075
81,375
2,700
3.2

84,500
81,875
2,625
3.1

84,975
82,425
2,550
3.0

86,600
84,225
2,375
2.7

86,375
84,025
2,350
2.7

4.0
4.8
-17.5
-20.7

4.0
4.4
-6.7
-10.3

55,300
43,700
9,600
1,075
5,475
3,050
45,700
9,875
675
1,900
4,250
8,825
6,950
1,625
11,600
1,275
10,325

55,700
44,100
9,575
1,125
5,375
3,075
46,125
10,025
650
1,950
4,325
8,875
7,050
1,650
11,600
1,300
10,300

56,100
44,425
9,750
1,150
5,400
3,200
46,350
10,000
650
2,000
4,325
8,900
7,150
1,650
11,675
1,300
10,375

56,075
45,275
10,000
1,150
5,600
3,250
46,075
10,025
675
2,025
4,575
9,025
7,275
1,675
10,800
1,300
9,500

55,125
44,900
10,000
1,175
5,575
3,250
45,125
10,000
675
1,950
4,450
8,900
7,225
1,700
10,225
1,300
8,925

3.9
3.6
3.1
17.5
1.8
0.8
4.0
0.0
3.8
2.6
5.3
10.6
1.4
1.5
4.9
-1.9
5.9

3.6
2.9
1.0
12.1
1.0
-2.1
4.2
0.7
0.9
6.1
4.1
10.2
0.6
-3.7
6.7
4.0
7.0

142,906
108,326
18,905
15,675
8,031
43,862
7,237

124,493
91,474
17,861
15,158
7,538
41,268
8,749

146,519
118,064
11,710
16,745
7,608
46,027
-753

147,938
113,823
18,648
15,468
7,656
55,820
6,949

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.6
9.9
5.6
23.9
1.6
25.0
-1.0

11.2
10.2
7.6
25.5
5.7
17.8
-3.0

283
270

248
225

254
236

330
308

528
410

113.8
76.0

16.9
23.2

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 11

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

18,300
17,075
1,225
6.7

18,600
17,300
1,300
7.0

18,650
17,375
1,275
6.8

18,675
17,400
1,275
6.8

18,925
17,700
1,225
6.5

-0.8
1.0
-21.0
-20.3

-1.1
-0.1
-12.0
-11.1

13,550
8,625
2,000
11,550
2,150
4,475
4,925
475
4,450

13,725
8,725
2,025
11,700
2,200
4,500
5,000
500
4,500

13,750
8,650
2,000
11,750
2,150
4,500
5,100
550
4,550

13,575
8,675
2,025
11,550
2,100
4,550
4,900
600
4,300

13,550
8,775
2,025
11,525
2,050
4,700
4,775
600
4,175

-0.4
0.0
-3.6
0.2
-2.4
2.7
-1.0
0.0
-1.2

-1.1
-1.7
-7.8
0.2
-0.1
0.6
-0.0
-6.7
0.8

29,074
19,730
4,407
4,936
2,529
8,532
911

28,183
18,886
3,802
5,495
2,733
7,469
763

32,604
21,400
4,383
6,822
3,099
7,258
922

31,256
21,458
4,438
5,360
2,653
10,129
1,023

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.2
-0.1
2.1
37.9
13.2
13.9
3.3

7.5
2.2
8.0
37.1
16.1
4.5
12.5

78,150
74,975
3,175
4.1

78,850
75,425
3,425
4.3

78,850
75,850
3,000
3.8

79,600
76,450
3,150
4.0

81,000
78,050
2,950
3.6

4.7
6.4
-26.7
-30.0

4.5
5.4
-11.5
-15.3

48,050
40,550
9,400
100
5,875
3,425
38,650
10,650
900
2,050
3,475
5,575
6,300
2,200
7,500
525
6,975

48,250
40,775
9,475
100
5,925
3,450
38,775
10,725
900
2,075
3,500
5,550
6,400
2,150
7,475
550
6,925

48,200
41,050
9,475
100
5,925
3,450
38,725
10,675
900
2,125
3,750
5,575
6,375
2,175
7,150
550
6,600

47,400
40,550
9,050
100
5,500
3,450
38,350
10,675
900
2,100
3,850
5,450
6,350
2,175
6,850
550
6,300

47,175
40,675
8,950
100
5,400
3,450
38,225
10,650
900
2,200
3,825
5,550
6,425
2,175
6,500
525
5,975

2.7
3.2
-2.2
0.0
-5.3
3.0
3.9
-0.2
2.9
14.3
7.0
1.8
12.7
6.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.4

2.8
4.1
2.4
0.0
0.1
6.5
2.9
2.7
1.0
13.7
8.5
-0.2
9.6
2.1
-4.0
0.8
-4.4

148,000
113,047
14,980
19,973
10,233
40,867
3,932

129,258
92,449
16,275
20,534
10,212
49,990
4,335

157,692
120,056
15,150
22,486
10,217
44,188
4,167

146,532
110,738
14,957
20,838
10,314
47,547
4,528

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

19.5
17.5
13.9
36.8
12.2
37.7
16.3

13.1
12.1
9.1
23.3
3.1
37.2
13.3

269
267

295
277

283
265

316
310

380
340

26.2
25.5

8.8
11.7

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 12

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

JUL
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

6,875
6,425
450
6.5

6,825
6,350
475
7.0

6,950
6,450
500
7.2

7,200
6,725
475
6.6

6,900
6,450
450
6.5

-6.4
-5.5
-18.2
-12.5

0.2
0.1
2.4
2.1

4,950
2,475
325
4,625
1,075
1,075
2,475
175
2,300

4,975
2,550
350
4,625
1,100
1,100
2,425
175
2,250

4,950
2,525
375
4,575
1,050
1,100
2,425
200
2,225

4,875
2,525
375
4,500
1,050
1,100
2,350
200
2,150

4,700
2,525
375
4,325
1,075
1,075
2,175
200
1,975

-6.0
0.0
7.1
-7.0
-6.5
4.9
-12.1
14.3
-14.1

0.3
-5.1
2.1
0.2
-11.3
-0.0
6.4
13.3
5.9

18,938
10,842
2,463
5,633
2,886
4,058
483

15,306
7,805
1,846
5,655
2,812
2,781
405

15,437
7,388
2,069
5,979
2,717
2,575
472

16,343
8,974
1,826
5,543
2,744
2,402
463

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

23.8
23.5
-1.2
35.7
11.3
236.5
-7.4

15.5
11.9
13.3
23.9
5.0
50.2
2.3

68,700
59,200
9,500
13.8

74,325
56,075
18,250
24.6

79,150
56,575
22,575
28.5

78,450
56,850
21,600
27.5

80,100
56,225
23,875
29.8

0.1
3.2
-6.5
-6.6

0.3
1.7
-4.1
-4.1

47,675
34,350
6,650
25
3,925
2,700
41,025
9,400
1,000
1,300
4,275
5,700
4,525
1,500
13,325
2,900
10,425

45,600
32,275
6,000
25
4,025
1,950
39,600
8,350
950
1,225
4,150
5,675
4,475
1,450
13,325
2,900
10,425

45,300
32,100
6,025
25
4,100
1,900
39,275
8,350
975
1,250
4,075
5,675
4,350
1,400
13,200
2,900
10,300

43,725
31,750
6,050
25
4,175
1,850
37,675
8,125
950
1,225
4,075
5,700
4,250
1,375
11,975
2,925
9,050

43,075
31,725
6,050
25
4,200
1,825
37,025
8,125
925
1,225
4,050
5,700
4,275
1,375
11,350
2,925
8,425

3.5
3.8
3.9
0.0
15.1
-15.1
3.4
2.2
-9.8
-3.9
8.0
6.5
6.2
1.9
2.5
3.5
2.1

1.9
2.1
5.3
0.0
13.8
-6.0
1.3
-2.7
2.8
-4.0
17.6
4.4
-3.7
-3.3
1.2
2.9
0.7

134,880
103,095
14,484
17,301
8,864
30,027
3,679

101,238
73,351
12,048
15,839
7,877
26,951
2,895

106,935
79,630
11,046
16,260
7,388
31,150
2,519

102,780
76,507
11,245
15,028
7,439
38,770
2,256

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.2
5.7
8.2
33.0
9.1
70.4
39.5

9.6
8.2
9.8
18.5
-0.2
31.4
15.4

256
256

293
293

135
135

252
165

168
168

2.4
2.4

24.2
27.9

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 13

A R I Z O N A

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

14,750
13,350
1,400
9.5

14,800
13,300
1,500
10.1

15,000
13,475
1,525
10.2

15,050
13,275
1,775
11.8

15,125
12,675
2,450
16.2

0.3
-0.4
4.3
3.9

2.7
3.8
-4.6
-6.8

13,000
9,450
1,350
11,650
5,200
2,900
3,550
1,150
2,400

13,000
9,425
1,350
11,650
5,175
2,900
3,575
1,150
2,425

13,125
9,525
1,350
11,775
5,300
2,875
3,600
1,150
2,450

12,650
9,275
1,350
11,300
5,100
2,825
3,375
1,175
2,200

11,825
8,725
1,325
10,500
4,575
2,825
3,100
1,150
1,950

-1.7
-0.9
-3.6
-1.4
-1.6
1.8
-3.9
0.0
-6.0

3.2
1.7
-2.1
3.9
5.2
-2.0
7.3
2.2
10.0

34,398
26,221
2,734
5,443
2,789
4,640
780

32,533
23,219
3,854
5,459
2,715
4,324
1,852

35,116
26,130
3,032
5,954
2,705
5,935
993

32,476
24,683
3,093
4,700
2,327
6,811
874

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.7
3.4
8.5
17.8
-3.4
-12.2
31.2

8.9
5.9
4.5
31.6
12.6
30.9
7.6

51
49

36
36

67
64

53
53

39
36

-29.1
-32.1

1.9
8.6

45,975
43,900
2,075
4.5

46,325
44,125
2,200
4.7

46,600
44,500
2,100
4.5

47,075
45,125
1,950
4.1

46,975
44,950
2,025
4.3

1.4
3.0
-24.3
-25.3

0.6
1.6
-17.0
-17.4

34,125
22,450
3,100
50
2,200
850
31,025
6,050
450
925
3,450
3,700
3,675
1,100
11,675
4,775
6,900

34,475
22,675
3,125
50
2,175
900
31,350
6,150
450
900
3,650
3,725
3,600
1,075
11,800
4,875
6,925

34,625
22,850
3,175
50
2,225
900
31,450
6,300
450
925
3,600
3,750
3,575
1,075
11,775
4,850
6,925

34,225
22,825
3,250
50
2,275
925
30,975
6,325
450
925
3,550
3,775
3,475
1,075
11,400
4,900
6,500

33,725
23,075
3,275
25
2,325
925
30,450
6,225
475
950
3,700
3,850
3,525
1,075
10,650
4,925
5,725

2.2
3.9
4.0
-50.0
4.5
5.7
2.0
1.6
0.0
8.6
8.8
8.5
-0.7
0.0
-1.4
5.9
-6.9

1.1
1.0
-0.1
-4.2
0.4
-0.9
1.2
2.1
-3.9
2.9
1.9
4.4
-3.4
-1.0
1.3
5.9
-1.7

80,642
60,223
9,924
10,496
5,377
17,602
3,546

66,760
47,021
9,610
10,129
5,037
16,907
2,767

80,174
59,748
9,347
11,079
5,034
14,051
2,702

73,748
55,624
9,004
9,120
4,514
17,773
2,040

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

8.8
2.2
10.2
74.9
43.4
4.3
17.7

9.3
7.1
18.4
16.4
-3.8
14.8
14.3

76
76

90
83

80
80

97
97

92
92

31.4
31.4

21.5
21.0

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 14

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUL
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

433.9
417.5
16.4
3.9

435.1
418.1
17.0
4.2

435.3
418.3
17.0
4.1

431.6
415.0
16.6
3.7

431.4
415.0
16.4
3.5

2.3
3.5
-20.4
-23.9

1.1
1.8
-13.1
-14.5

352.2
1.2
23.2
28.3
5.3
11.3
7.3
39.2
7.7
7.7
15.5
41.2
47.5
5.3
7.7
25.1
14.7
10.0
70.6
47.8

352.8
1.2
23.3
28.4
5.3
11.3
7.3
39.1
7.7
7.6
15.4
41.2
47.6
5.3
7.8
25.3
14.9
10.2
70.5
47.8

352.8
1.2
23.6
28.4
5.2
11.3
7.3
39.3
7.8
7.6
15.5
41.4
47.6
4.9
7.7
25.0
14.9
10.1
70.5
47.8

344.9
1.2
23.6
28.5
5.3
11.3
7.2
38.8
7.9
7.7
15.5
41.4
47.4
4.8
7.6
24.4
15.0
10.1
63.8
40.4

338.4
1.2
24.0
28.5
5.2
11.3
7.3
38.5
7.9
7.6
15.6
41.5
46.9
4.6
7.3
23.9
15.0
10.1
58.5
35.0

1.7
0.0
3.9
-0.7
-1.9
-1.7
1.4
0.5
2.6
0.0
4.7
1.7
4.2
-2.1
2.8
2.6
2.7
4.1
-0.7
1.7

0.9
-10.4
2.3
-2.8
-3.8
-4.5
-0.9
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
3.5
0.7
5.4
2.9
1.6
-0.1
1.4
6.0
-1.2
1.2

877,943
593,168
110,425
107,463
66,888
154,732
37,693

759,534
483,424
112,566
98,943
64,601
147,485
28,539

869,305
587,370
111,079
99,065
71,791
152,806
22,709

798,719
535,181
109,119
93,855
60,564
159,880
19,126

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.2
4.2
7.6
18.6
19.7
16.2
16.6

8.1
7.3
8.4
8.0
15.6
11.6
2.9

963
893
69

753
698
55

774
760
14

908
847
61

1,174
883
292

53.0
27.0
303.5

21.5
31.6
-36.8

279,257
1,346
207,472

310,860
1,505
206,552

314,381
1,533
205,076

365,563
1,718
212,784

311,318
1,530
203,476

29.8
17.7
10.3

28.5
17.0
9.2

369,092
22,099

340,254
21,241

317,816
21,385

300,155
19,904

303,272
20,065

6.0
8.7

2.8
-10.0

II
2003

III
2003

IV
2003

I
2004

II
2004

908.4
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.9

913.6
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.9

918.7
1.2
3.2
1.9
3.9

923.8
1.2
3.2
1.9
3.9

929.0
1.2
3.2
1.9
3.9

2.3
0.7
1.5
2.0
0.1

2.3
4.8
2.2
0.6
-0.0

22,645
13,809
851
113
5,401
4,173
24,928

22,956
14,001
865
115
5,463
4,242
25,129

23,300
14,210
880
117
5,547
4,307
25,362

23,637
14,411
895
119
5,630
4,372
25,585

23,965
14,610
910
121
5,705
4,438
25,797

5.8
5.8
6.9
7.2
5.6
6.4
3.5

5.0
4.9
5.9
6.1
3.9
7.3
2.7

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 15

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

1,838.0
1,763.1
74.9
4.2

1,849.6
1,770.6
79.0
4.5

1,851.1
1,772.7
78.4
4.3

1,855.6
1,778.2
77.4
4.0

1,864.4
1,791.7
72.7
3.7

2.7
4.4
-26.1
-27.5

1.9
3.0
-16.7
-17.9

1,652.0
2.0
138.0
101.2
13.2
35.6
14.5
27.2
76.3
194.3
8.1
51.5
36.1
103.2
33.3
261.5
27.7
142.1
21.0
27.7
112.3
62.4
21.6
204.5
108.8

1,660.2
2.0
140.3
101.6
13.2
35.5
14.5
26.9
76.1
195.5
8.1
51.4
36.2
103.3
33.2
263.4
28.4
142.5
21.1
27.6
113.1
62.4
21.8
205.3
109.1

1,660.0
2.0
142.3
101.3
13.2
35.2
14.5
26.7
76.5
195.3
8.1
51.6
35.6
102.9
33.2
263.1
28.4
142.9
20.8
27.5
112.4
62.7
21.5
205.2
107.6

1,639.7
2.0
145.0
101.5
13.1
35.3
14.5
26.8
76.2
194.6
8.0
51.5
35.2
102.6
33.1
265.5
27.6
143.0
20.1
26.8
110.1
63.1
21.6
185.4
86.7

1,622.3
2.0
145.6
101.3
13.0
35.5
14.5
26.5
75.7
193.5
8.1
51.4
34.9
102.3
32.8
266.0
26.1
142.5
19.1
26.2
107.5
63.2
21.7
175.9
77.2

2.6
0.0
11.6
-0.1
0.8
-3.0
-0.7
-3.6
-2.1
3.1
2.5
0.8
-6.9
0.5
-0.3
2.7
12.5
2.9
-3.0
1.2
2.5
3.9
0.5
3.7
6.2

2.1
-1.6
8.7
-2.8
0.1
-8.8
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
3.0
3.3
-0.6
-5.2
2.7
-0.1
2.7
15.4
4.2
0.2
1.9
1.3
0.5
0.5
1.8
4.0

4,006,768
2,735,606
483,347
504,606
283,209
833,577
165,244

3,800,903
2,595,975
492,721
447,514
264,693
816,476
123,297

3,712,433
2,479,573
486,209
444,297
302,354
799,890
91,801

3,721,549
2,562,574
477,629
424,068
257,277
919,725
67,364

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

8.0
6.5
10.3
8.3
20.0
17.9
5.8

9.4
8.1
11.5
9.0
20.0
14.3
4.9

5,818
5,490
174
154

6,480
4,854
254
1,372

5,363
5,127
70
166

5,939
5,590
214
135

7,038
6,291
109
638

53.0
48.4
289.3
91.6

26.3
25.8
280.1
11.5

1,779,136
8,205
216,836

1,792,196
8,452
212,044

1,870,006
8,581
217,924

2,245,461
9,530
235,620

1,937,221
8,684
223,079

31.5
18.3
11.1

37.8
20.4
14.7

3,576,506
46,228

3,344,797
45,595

3,258,036
45,956

3,430,314
44,831

...
...

3.9
0.3

4.4
-1.0

See sources and abbreviations below.
Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE 16

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department
of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

II
2003

III
2003

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,584.6
3,612.4
Natural Increase
9.0
9.1
15.2
15.3
Births
Deaths
6.2
6.2
Net Migration
18.5
18.7
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
103,481
105,256
Earnings by Place of Work
81,795
83,340
9,170
9,437
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-27
-24
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
17,167
17,419
13,716
13,959
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
28,868
29,137
ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

I
2004

II
2004

3,640.4
9.0
15.3
6.2
19.0

3,668.4
8.9
15.3
6.3
19.1

3,696.4
8.9
15.3
6.4
19.1

3.1
-1.4
0.5
3.3
3.2

3.1
3.2
2.3
1.0
1.5

107,179
85,110
9,740
-23
17,648
14,184
29,441

109,066
86,839
10,035
-22
17,873
14,411
29,731

110,915
88,504
10,320
-20
18,108
14,644
30,006

7.2
8.2
12.5
24.2
5.5
6.8
3.9

6.4
6.7
10.5
20.4
5.7
7.8
3.1

5,610.2
11.8
22.7
10.9
27.5

5,649.2
12.1
22.9
10.8
26.5

5,688.0
11.7
22.7
11.0
27.3

5,728.4
12.9
23.0
10.1
29.1

5,771.6
12.2
22.8
10.6
32.2

2.9
3.6
0.6
-2.6
17.1

2.8
3.7
2.6
1.4
4.6

149,191
112,375
12,446
564
25,305
23,394

151,641
114,278
12,672
572
25,466
23,999

154,171
116,351
12,917
581
26,053
24,105

156,865
118,722
13,379
591
26,439
24,496

160,029
121,682
13,738
604
26,866
24,616

7.3
8.3
10.4
7.0
6.2
5.2

6.5
7.2
8.7
6.0
3.1
7.8

83,062
16,498
12,390
428
11,963
26,593
35,765

84,320
16,880
12,899
501
12,397
26,843
35,929

85,700
17,258
13,304
737
12,568
27,105
36,284

87,242
17,870
13,380
387
12,993
27,384
36,745

89,241
18,519
...
...
...
27,727
...

7.4
12.3
13.2
54.8
12.3
4.3
4.3

6.4
10.3
8.1
-19.4
9.6
3.5
3.7

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA

Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

1,360,123
155,483
420,201
784,439
415,362
62,651
312,242
40,469

1,704,270
163,233
553,863
987,174
241,727
36,111
170,045
35,571

1,738,115
162,854
553,752
1,021,509
218,164
30,196
139,727
48,241

2,170,094
150,768
736,351
1,282,975
143,981
21,216
83,346
39,419

2,372,830
184,739
847,198
1,340,893
168,105
21,681
107,342
39,082

4.2
18.4
1.3
4.4
6.9
-2.2
8.4
8.4

2.4
5.0
2.5
1.9
-3.4
3.2
-4.7
-4.3

756,746
2,055,396
910,003

719,128
2,001,759
856,755

763,155
2,117,583
910,492

707,138
1,665,706
870,014

745,539
2,080,925
924,847

3.2
37.6
10.7

-9.7
-0.8
-2.0

187.4
182.9

188.0
183.5

189.1
184.7

189.7
185.3

189.4
184.9

3.0
3.0

2.3
2.1

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 17

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

MAR
2004

APR
2004

MAY
2004

JUN
2004

JUL
2004

2,728.4
2,605.0
123.4
4.9

2,750.8
2,612.9
137.9
5.4

2,758.9
2,618.2
140.7
5.1

2,765.9
2,625.4
140.5
4.7

2,778.7
2,640.2
138.5
4.4

2.5
4.1
-20.4
-24.1

1.8
2.7
-12.9
-14.0

2,339.2
8.0
185.0
138.0
17.1
41.4
26.3
34.7
93.0
277.7
11.5
65.1
48.3
118.0
43.7
324.4
38.5
218.3
30.4
45.2
164.1
87.0
51.5
356.8
196.7
39.6

2,346.9
8.1
187.1
138.6
17.1
41.3
26.3
33.8
91.7
279.5
11.4
65.0
48.1
118.1
43.4
326.5
39.3
219.0
31.0
45.3
165.1
87.2
52.2
356.5
196.7
39.8

2,347.2
8.2
190.2
138.4
17.1
41.1
26.3
33.6
92.1
279.4
11.5
65.3
47.6
117.8
43.5
326.6
39.4
219.2
30.7
45.1
163.9
87.6
52.1
355.0
193.3
39.5

2,314.1
8.3
193.0
138.6
17.0
41.1
26.4
33.7
91.8
277.9
11.5
65.3
47.1
117.5
43.5
329.3
37.8
219.5
30.0
44.4
160.8
88.0
52.5
323.6
159.1
39.5

2,285.3
8.5
193.8
138.3
17.0
41.4
26.4
33.3
91.0
276.0
11.5
65.2
46.8
117.1
43.2
330.0
35.3
219.1
29.1
43.6
157.8
88.0
51.7
306.0
141.1
39.0

2.3
4.9
9.1
0.0
0.6
-2.6
-0.8
-5.1
-0.9
2.1
0.9
1.1
-5.5
0.4
0.0
2.9
11.4
3.5
2.5
1.4
2.2
3.2
1.6
1.8
3.1
-2.0

1.9
-2.6
7.0
-2.3
0.7
-8.1
-2.8
-3.3
-1.4
2.5
2.3
-0.7
-4.1
2.9
-0.4
2.8
13.9
4.4
3.3
2.0
0.8
0.6
2.5
0.4
2.1
0.5

15.29
14.27
13.87
11.65
17.99

15.24
14.28
13.93
11.56
18.24

15.33
14.13
14.12
11.57
18.79

15.30
14.08
14.17
11.54
18.85

15.48
14.00
14.23
11.46
19.09

0.8
-3.0
5.5
-0.6
11.6

2.8
0.0
3.6
1.3
9.8

5,822,132
3,919,421
726,770
709,339
466,603
239,051
447,066
242,110
105,991
300,918
1,176,443
74,861
239,407

5,407,313
3,570,909
740,864
641,900
453,641
225,602
436,672
239,953
66,777
283,622
1,154,277
52,802
192,428

5,533,014
3,667,250
731,073
632,824
501,867
228,028
498,818
212,177
64,670
250,684
1,149,437
65,467
148,301

5,461,160
3,689,102
718,172
617,729
436,157
215,887
623,759
247,123
70,393
309,226
1,310,609
66,591
129,643

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

8.5
6.7
8.8
9.6
23.3
1.2
3.5
-23.6
12.0
9.0
18.1
104.7
6.5

8.7
7.9
7.1
8.8
20.0
0.8
7.7
-2.9
5.1
-3.4
14.5
83.5
8.3

7,790
7,393
202
195

8,290
6,575
331
1,384

7,045
6,770
109
166

7,971
7,465
251
255

9,514
8,353
180
981

52.4
45.4
55.2
158.8

25.5
26.5
93.7
6.3

3,162
2,629
22
511

2,874
2,387
14
473

2,590
2,165
17
408

2,771
2,288
14
469

2,583
2,150
17
416

-6.4
-5.2
-60.5
-7.3

-1.9
0.2
-22.5
-9.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 18

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

I N D I C A T O R S

III
2003

IV
2003

I
2004

188.5
183.7
179.6

189.1
184.6
180.3

188.7
184.6
180.3

190.8
186.3
181.9

193.0
188.9
184.5

2.4
2.9
2.7

1.9
2.2
2.0

105.4
105.1

105.9
105.5

106.3
105.8

107.0
106.6

107.8
107.6

2.2
2.4

1.8
1.8

CHANGE OF ADDRESS

Attach old label or fill in old address in shaded box below.

NEW Address:

Mail to: Economic and Business

Name: __________________________________________________________
Organization:______________________________________________________
Title: ____________________________________________________________
Address: ________________________________________________________
City: ____________________________________________________________
State: ____________________________________

II
2004

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

II
2003

Research Publications
McClelland Hall 103
The University of Arizona
PO Box 210108
Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108

Name: ____________________________________________________________
Organization: ______________________________________________________
Title: ____________________________________________________________
Address: __________________________________________________________
City:______________________________________________________________
State: ________________________________________

Zip: _______________

Zip: ________________
Telephone: ________________________________________________________

Telephone: ________________ E-mail: ________________________________

10/04
TO ORDER
Check the appropriate box below and include a check or money order, where applicable.

Arizona’s Economy—now also available on-line!
❑ Electronic subscription (Please notify me via e-mail when each new quarterly issue is posted
on your Web site. Do not send hard copy.)
❑ Printed subscription only, please:
❑ free of charge in the United States ❑ $16.00 (U.S.) international subscription
❑ Both of the above
Arizona Economic Indicators
❑ $21.00 in the U.S. (Fall 2004 and Spring 2005)
❑ $28.00 (U.S.) international subscription (Fall 2004 and Spring 2005)
❑ $10.50 single issue U.S. (specify issue) ❑ $14.00 single issue international (specify issue)
2003 Award-Winning Arizona Statistical Abstract (prices include shipping and handling)
❑ $54.95 in the U.S.
❑ $70.00 international

CLIP & MAIL

1993 Award-Winning Arizona Statistical Abstract (prices include shipping and handling)
❑ $27.95 in the U.S.
❑ $36.00 international

ARIZONA’S
ECONOMY
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY IS PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE
ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT, THE UNIVERSITY OF
ARIZONA, TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721. 520-621-2155.
COPYRIGHT 2004 BY THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA.
REQUESTS FOR COPIES, PERMISSION TO REPRINT AND CHANGE
OF ADDRESS NOTICES SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE STAFF.
INTERIM DEAN.................................................KENNETH SMITH
DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC
AND BUSINESS RESEARCH............................MARSHALL J. VEST
DIRECTOR OF MARKETING
AND COMMUNICATIONS ....................................JULIE S. KRELL

Name: _________________________________________E-mail: ________________________________________
Title: __________________________________________Organization: ___________________________________
Address: _____________________________________________________________________________________

ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
520-621-2155

City: __________________________________________State: ____________Zip:________________- _________
Country: _____________________Telephone: ( )_______________________Fax: ( ) ______________________
Total amount enclosed: $ __________________________

Please make check or money order payable to: Economic and Business Research
Mail to: Economic and Business Research Publications, McClelland Hall 103,
The University of Arizona, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108

Visit our Web site! ebr.eller.arizona.edu
Made possible through the support of Bank One

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

ECONOMIC IMPACT
& FISCAL ANALYSIS ......................ALBERTA CHARNEY
621-2291
FORECASTING PROJECT .................MARSHALL J. VEST
621-4075
STATE DATA CENTER...........................PIA MONTOYA
621-2523
DATA REFERENCE..................................VALORIE RICE
621-2109
EBR WEBMASTER .......................MAILE NADELHOFFER
621-4050

PAGE 19

PERSPECTIVE IS
EVERYTHING

ARIZONA’S
ECONOMY
Printing and mailing
for this issue of
Arizona’s Economy
made possible by

The Arizona Business Leaders Confidence
Index® (BLCI) is an excellent - and quick - way
to help business leaders like you stay ahead of
the information curve. The BLCI is compiled
from a quarterly online survey completed by
business leaders across Arizona.
Please log on at www.blci.com/arizona and
register to become a BLCI panelist. It only
takes a few minutes and you’ll be notified by
email when the next survey opens on Dec. 1st.
With increased participation from business
leaders like you, the BLCI will become a more
valuable planning tool for the Arizona business
community. Plus you receive an exclusive
preview of survey results before they are
released to the general public. Join today!

Economic Outlook Luncheon
Friday, December 10, 2004
Noon - 2:00 pm
Westin La Paloma, Tucson
Presentations by:
Marshall J. Vest, Economic and Business Research Program
Gerald J. Swanson, Economics Department

The University of Arizona

Reserve now and save:
$65.00 per person; $650 per table of 10*
After November 8: $70.00 per person; $700 per table of 10*
Reservations required.
For information, call 621-2281
or e-mail dzrodrig@eller.arizona.edu
*Fee is not a charitiable contribution.

Eller College of Management

PRSRT. STD.
U.S. POSTAGE
P A I D
TUCSON, ARIZONA

PUBLICATIONS OFFICE
ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT
MCCLELLAND HALL 103
PO BOX 210108
TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721-0108

ADDRESS SERVICE REQUESTED

PERMIT NO. 190