A P R I L 2 0 0 4 S P R I N G BUSINESS CYCLE TURNS UP AT LAST By Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director February 27, 2004 N ow that data for last year’s second half is available, the question of whether recovery will ever materialize is moot. Measure after measure shows rapid acceleration in the Arizona economy, particularly during last year’s summer (third) quarter. That includes measures for sales, tourism, wages, income, homebuilding, AND employment! These breathtaking gains are characteristic of an oldfashioned cyclical upturn. Consider retail sales. Consumers celebrated the end of the war with Iraq by spending their tax rebate checks (and more). Arizona retail sales exploded during the third quarter of 2003, growing at a 20% seasonally adjusted annual rate. The fourth quarter saw a return to more normal, but still robust, growth in the 7-8 percent range (Exhibit 1). Tourism also surged following the end of the Iraqi war, as people resumed traveling and enjoyed long-postponed vacations. Conventions and business travel also moved to a higher level as the economy improved and corporate profits surged. Arizona’s restaurant and bar sales jumped at a 30% annual rate during the third quarter and continued growing at a double-digit rate in the fourth quarter. Hotel/motel sales grew at a 13.3% annual rate in the second half, fueled by a 30% surge during the summer (third) quarter, while airline passengers at Phoenix’s Sky Harbor airport grew at an 18% annual rate. Consumer’s willingness to spend and travel received big boosts from higher confidence, cash-out mortgage refinancing, tax rebate checks, and rebounding household net worth due to large gains in financial markets and home price appreciation. Additional factors that will remain important going forward include solid wage gains, partly due to the return of incentive compensation (such as bonuses and stock options), and renewed employment growth. Arizona consumer confidence, as measured by the Behavior Research Center, jumped nearly eight points in the survey for the fourth quarter, and added another half point during the first quarter. Resale housing prices in metro Phoenix, after registering gains in the 7-8 percent range during the first half of 2003, surged at an annual rate of nearly 30% during the third quarter and by almost a 40% annual rate in the fourth quarter. For the whole I N S I D E FORECAST TABLES ................4 UA RESEARCH EXPENDITURES ..5 ARIZONA’S SCHOOLS ...........6 STATISTICAL ABSTRACT..........8 ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........9 I S S U E year, average home prices increased by 12.3%, the largest increase since 1981. The average price is calculated from sales data provided by local MLS boards, and does not control for quality, size or changes in the mix of homes sold. The number of units sold also moved up sharply and finished the year with a 17.5% gain in metro Phoenix, and 10.5% in metro Tucson. Wages per employee, after gaining only 1.9% statewide in 2002, have accelerated to a 3.6% annual rate in last year’s third quarter, the most recent period for which data is available. Anecdotally, a number of companies have resumed the awarding of bonuses following a two-year moratorium. Also, employees are finding stock options once again “back in the money” after strong gains in stock prices during the past year. Aggregate proprietors income, which largely reflects earnings by the self employed who are not included in the above statistics, exploded at a 20.3% annual rate in the third quarter, which lifted proprietors income 11.6% higher than the year before. With core inflation running at only 1.5%, income gains in real terms are quite healthy and will keep consumers spending freely in 2004. As with resale housing markets, homebuilding activity soared during last year’s second half. Residential building permits statewide grew at a 28% annual rate from July through December, which boosted the annual increase to nearly 13%. The new activity was largely in single-family construction, although multifamily counts bounced back a bit from very depressed levels (Exhibit 2). The missing element since the recession ended in late 2003 has been the lack of job growth. That is no longer the case. Although non-farm jobs grew by only 1.0% for all of 2003, according to preliminary data reported by the Arizona Department of Economic Security, the pace quickened considerably during the second half. As shown in Exhibit 3, private sector payrolls grew at a 2.0% annual rate during the second half ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION T UCSON, ARIZONA EXHIBIT 1 Consumers Spent Freely in 2nd Half Retail Sales, AZ (seasonally adjusted annual rate, smoothed) and an even faster 4.2% annual rate during the fourth quarter! (Exhibit 3) Government payrolls continue to expand very slowly – less than one-half of one percent for all of 2003. Gains in federal and education have been offset by declines in state & local administrative (non-ed) employment. Industry sectors driving the upward surge include leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, education & health services, and construction. Although neither ARIZONA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, AS MEASURED BY THE BEHAVIOR RESEARCH CENTER, JUMPED NEARLY EIGHT POINTS IN THE SURVEY FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND ADDED ANOTHER HALF POINT DURING THE FIRST QUARTER. PAGE 2 EXHIBIT 2 Residential Construction Headed Sharply Upward Building Permits, AZ (seasonally adjusted annual rate) has created many new jobs as yet, both manufacturing and information are no longer declining and appear poised to regain lost ground in 2004. Recent trends in industry employment may be revised in the annual re-benchmarking process, but revisions will likely not change prospects for widely dispersed, solid growth going forward. THE OUTLOOK Rapid growth in last year’s second half sets the stage for large gains in 2004, reminiscent of those experienced in 1994. Percentage increases are unlikely to approach ten-year ago figures, but the numerical increases may equal or surpass the earlier period. Nearly 100,000 net new nonfarm jobs will be created this year (growth of 4.2%), which compares favorably to 1994’s gain of 107,000 (6.8%). Arizona’s population will grow by 160,000, or 20,000 more than in 1994. Educational services will be the fastestgrowing sector with growth of more than ten percent. Professional and business services also will expand rapidly, especially temporary employment agencies. Finance and insurance, food services, construction, and trade will each register percentage gains exceeding four percent. Anecdotally, a number of businesses already are experiencing shortages. Nurses, medical technicians, radiologists, pharmacists are hard to find. There is a huge shortage of teachers. Vehicle repair shops, longhaul trucking, home remodelers, security firms, manufacturers and information technology companies also will find it difficult to recruit skilled workers going forward. And things will get worse as time passes. By 2015, with baby-boom retirees checking out of the labor force, the US will see a shortfall of 10 million workers, according to one estimate. The outlook for homebuilding will be affected by population growth as well as increases in interest rates. Population growth will move higher, and each time a new household is formed, a new housing unit is needed. Faster job creation also should bolster demand. Interest rates will head higher as the year progresses and that will have a negative effect on affordability. This is more likely to change the mix between single and multifamily construction than to effect aggregate units built. Interest rate increases should remain modest in 2004 as inflation remains low and the presidential election looms. We expect that increased household formation will more than offset rate increases and that homebuilding will exceed 2003 totals. Look for ARIZONA'S ECONOMY EXHIBIT 3 Private Sector Job Growth Returns EXHIBIT 4 Which is More Accurate? Private Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted) Household vs. Establishment Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted, smoothed) change from year ago nearly 70,000 new residential units to be built statewide in 2004. HOW MANY JOBS ARE BEING CREATED? One of the knocks on the “recovery” is the lack of job growth, and this has become a major issue in the presidential campaign. Nationwide, the economy has shed some 2.1 million nonfarm jobs since the end of the recession, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There are, however, two different estimates of employment produced each month by the federal and state governments, and they show widely differing patterns. Both are based on sample surveys; nonfarm employment is based on a survey of establishments, and the household estimates are based on a survey of households. The major difference is that the former excludes self-employed, while the latter includes this large and dynamic group. A second difference is that the former counts jobs, while the latter counts employed persons (and therefore, multiple job-holding could account for variances). A third difference that can be important at the state or local level is that the former represents jobs by place of work, while the latter counts employment by place of residence (i.e., geographical coverage of the two measures is not the same). ARIZONA'S ECONOMY While the nonfarm measure shows a nationwide loss of 2.1 million, the household measure shows a gain of nearly one million over the same period. That’s a huge gap. In Arizona, the gap also exists but is not as pronounced. Since the recession ended, nonfarm jobs have grown by 34,000 compared to almost 110,000 in the household series. In recent months, however, the establishment survey shows the larger gain (Exhibit 4). Some analysts argued that the nonfarm estimates would be revised significantly upward during the annual re-benchmarking process, which is to be expected since the establishment numbers do a terrific job at counting employment in large and existing firms but don’t as well estimating job creation in smaller firms or in new startups — particularly true in business cycle upswings. That didn’t happen when national numbers were revised in early February. (State revisions have not yet been released as this is written). The most plausible explanation is that when layoffs were high, many workers became consultants or went into business for themselves. They dropped out of the establishment counts but were still counted in the household survey. Now that hiring has resumed, the process is reversed. So, which measure is more accurate? Economists strongly believe that the establishment numbers are the more reliable indicator of employment trends. This means that job counts are moving up nicely from the recent cyclical low and that Arizona will soon be creating 100,000 or more jobs annually. ■ F O R E C A S T S P O N S O R S Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Arizona Public Service Company Bank One CB Richard Ellis City of Glendale City of Mesa City of Tucson Compass Bank Elliott D. Pollack and Company KB Home Merrill Lynch Pascua Yaqui Tribe Pima Association of Governments Pima County Salt River Project Tucson Electric Power Company Tucson Newspapers PAGE 3 F O R E C A S T Forecasts for Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Wage per Employee percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Residential Permits percent change Non Farm Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade, Trans., & Utilities percent change Prof. & Business Services percent change Leisure & Hospitality percent change Government percent change T A B L E S 2002 142,541.2 3.8 35,378 1.8 56,188.1 1.4 5,472.8 2.9 62,951 12.3 2,264.9 0.0 365.5 -5.0 1,899.4 1.0 441.9 0.3 312.3 -2.4 230.0 0.0 388.2 2.8 2003 150,522.1 5.6 36,388 2.9 60,177.6 7.1 5,629.9 2.9 68,836 9.3 2,312.8 2.1 364.4 -0.3 1,948.5 2.6 451.1 2.1 324.1 3.8 237.3 3.2 392.0 1.0 2004 161,566.2 7.3 37,513 3.1 64,422.3 7.1 5,790.2 2.8 69,416 0.8 2,410.5 4.2 376.2 3.2 2,034.5 4.4 470.7 4.3 348.2 7.4 246.9 4.0 399.3 1.9 2005 173,585.9 7.4 38,848 3.6 68,397.3 6.2 5,973.9 3.2 67,830 -2.3 2,521.6 4.6 388.0 3.1 2,133.8 4.9 496.4 5.5 376.3 8.1 256.1 3.7 409.2 2.5 2006 185,535.0 6.9 40,222 3.5 72,060.8 5.4 6,157.1 3.1 63,236 -6.8 2,601.9 3.2 397.2 2.4 2,204.8 3.3 510.7 2.9 391.3 4.0 262.6 2.5 419.3 2.5 2007 198,214.5 6.8 41,748 3.8 75,640.7 5.0 6,321.7 2.7 58,788 -7.0 2,671.7 2.7 401.2 1.0 2,270.6 3.0 522.8 2.4 404.8 3.4 268.7 2.3 427.1 1.9 2008 211,917.9 6.9 43,372 3.9 79,479.5 5.1 6,479.0 2.5 57,949 -1.4 2,741.1 2.6 404.7 0.9 2,336.5 2.9 533.6 2.1 415.8 2.7 274.0 2.0 434.4 1.7 99,242.6 3.3 37,215 1.9 38,114.2 0.6 3,488.6 3.2 47,899 3.9 1,599.2 0.1 270.5 -4.7 1,328.8 1.1 326.7 0.7 254.0 -2.1 152.4 -0.1 211.6 4.0 104,486.4 5.3 38,137 2.5 41,168.9 8.0 3,602.2 3.3 49,444 3.2 1,639.8 2.5 270.5 0.0 1,369.4 3.0 334.1 2.2 263.1 3.6 155.9 2.4 215.0 1.6 111,857.9 7.1 39,321 3.1 43,764.3 6.3 3,728.9 3.5 50,658 2.5 1,713.0 4.5 278.6 3.0 1,434.5 4.8 346.1 3.6 282.0 7.2 163.5 4.9 221.2 2.9 120,458.0 7.7 40,815 3.8 46,698.7 6.7 3,858.8 3.5 52,114 2.9 1,796.2 4.9 291.0 4.5 1,505.2 4.9 364.2 5.2 300.1 6.4 171.3 4.8 227.2 2.7 130,076.6 8.0 42,492 4.1 49,747.8 6.5 3,989.8 3.4 52,613 1.0 1,868.4 4.0 302.5 3.9 1,565.9 4.0 378.2 3.8 315.7 5.2 176.2 2.8 233.2 2.7 140,369.7 7.9 44,334 4.3 52,771.7 6.1 4,114.3 3.1 50,216 -4.6 1,935.8 3.6 311.3 2.9 1,624.5 3.7 390.4 3.2 329.7 4.4 181.2 2.8 238.3 2.2 150,990.2 7.6 46,233 4.3 55,916.0 6.0 4,234.4 2.9 48,811 -2.8 1,997.4 3.2 316.3 1.6 1,681.1 3.5 400.7 2.7 341.0 3.4 185.1 2.2 243.3 2.1 22,331.8 4.4 30,535 1.6 8,707.2 0.6 890.5 2.3 7,999 -1.9 347.7 0.1 56.3 -2.1 300.5 3.6 55.8 0.9 40.3 -2.5 38.0 -0.5 77.7 1.1 23,368.8 4.6 31,519 3.2 9,313.9 7.0 910.8 2.3 8,315 4.0 353.1 1.5 55.5 -1.5 306.8 2.1 57.3 2.7 41.2 2.3 38.9 2.3 78.8 1.4 24,936.8 6.7 32,686 3.7 9,836.5 5.6 932.7 2.4 8,676 4.3 366.6 3.8 56.4 1.7 319.3 4.1 59.9 4.5 43.7 6.1 42.0 8.1 80.7 2.5 26,621.0 6.8 33,795 3.4 10,327.8 5.0 955.1 2.4 8,631 -0.5 383.3 4.5 58.2 3.3 334.3 4.7 62.1 3.7 47.9 9.6 44.8 6.6 83.2 3.0 28,671.0 7.7 34,971 3.5 10,900.5 5.5 979.4 2.5 8,906 3.2 400.6 4.5 60.4 3.6 349.5 4.6 64.6 3.9 52.2 8.9 47.3 5.6 85.9 3.3 30,953.0 8.0 36,176 3.4 11,526.4 5.7 1,005.3 2.6 9,172 3.0 420.0 4.8 63.2 4.7 366.2 4.8 67.3 4.2 56.7 8.7 49.9 5.6 89.0 3.6 33,313.1 7.6 37,440 3.5 12,159.5 5.5 1,032.0 2.7 9,301 1.4 438.6 4.4 65.7 3.9 382.5 4.4 70.0 4.0 60.6 6.8 52.8 5.8 92.1 3.5 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona PAGE 4 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA RESEARCH EXPENDITURES: GENERATING JOBS, WAGES AND TAX REVENUES IN THE LOCAL ECONOMY IN FY 2002 By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D. Economic and Business Research Program and Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Ph.D. University of Arizona Office of Economic Development The University attracted more than $285.1 million in research funding in FY 2002. This figure includes only dollars specifically designated for use as research and represents approximately 73.6% of the $373.9 million received in grants and awards received by the University in that year. Although the remaining $88.8 grants and awards received by the university for instructional, public service and other purposes also generate economic impacts, the impact of those dollars are not assessed in this study. University research awards and grants directly supported over 3,400 jobs at the University during FY 2002. These jobs included approximately 2,500 faculty, administrators, academic professionals and supporting staff positions directly involved in research activity and approximately 900 jobs in research-supported activities and administration of research projects. The actual number of people supported by research dollars was larger than 3,400 because some of these jobs were part-time. Research activity also directly supported over 1,400 full-time-equivalent (FTE) student positions. Because the majority of these research positions are part-time research positions filled by graduate students, the actual number of students supported by research was more than double the 1,400 figure. The aggregate payroll for University faculty, students, and support jobs created by research activity was $170.3 million. The majority of these wages and salaries circulated back into the local economy through purchases of local goods and services. University faculty, staff and students spend locally and generate close to 2,500 additional jobs, an additional $36.4 million in wages and $110.3 million in sales in Pima County. The University spent $51 million on research-related purchases of goods and services in Pima County, such as computer components, high-tech equipment, professional and maintenance services, printing and photographic services and operating supplies. These local University researchrelated purchases and operating expenditures created an additional 1,500 jobs, $27.2 million in wages and $75.4 million in sales in Pima County. Approximately $15.8 million of University of Arizona research expenditures were spent in Arizona outside of Pima County either through a direct allocation to non-Pima County departments and outreach offices or through purchases that the main campus of the University made elsewhere in the state. The economic impact generated by these combined expenditures was more than 600 jobs, $12 million in wages and $28.7 million in sales in Arizona outside of Pima County. University of Arizona research activities contributed over 9,500 jobs, $246 million in wages, $20.1 million in tax revenues to state and local governments, and $385 million in sales to the state’s economy. ■ FOR THE COMPLETE STUDY Go to the EBR Web site under Special Studies or the UA Office of Economic Development Web site under Publications, Regional Development Program: Economic and Business Research Program http://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/ImpactStudies/ResearchExp/UA_Research_Impact.pdf UA Office of Economic Development http://oed.arizona.edu/pubs/regional-development/pubs/UA_Research_Impact.pdf COMING SOON In the Spring of 2005, we will be releasing the results of another University of Arizona impact study. That study will examine the economic impact of all University of Arizona expenditures (of which research is only a part), and the impact of student, faculty, staff and visitor spending. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 5 MEETING THE CHALLENGE IN ARIZONA’S PUBLIC SCHOOLS: AN UPDATE By Heather Peterson Research Specialist “A strong and effective system of education is one fundamental way to strengthen our economy and raise living standards1,” remarked Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan. In testimony before Congress, Mr. Greenspan also noted that with “the conceptual demands on our workers continuing to rise, substantial further progress needs to be made in raising the analytic competency of our graduating highschool seniors . . . so that our students can take advantage of the considerable opportunities that will exist in tomorrow’s labor market. In that way, we can realize the potential of technological change for bringing substantial and lasting benefits to our economy2.” New Economy businesses require an educated, highly-skilled workforce. States compete in attracting these businesses and their high paying jobs in order to improve the standard of living for all the state’s residents. In making location decisions, these companies consider the quality of the public school system, along with a myriad of other factors. Not only do they need a readily available skilled workforce to draw from, but in order to compete for the best workers, they must be able to offer such workers a good public school system for their children. How are Arizona’s public schools doing? Two influential national studies of public education have recently been released: “Measuring Up: 2000” from the Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, and Education Week’s “Quality Counts 2004.” Arizona ranks 49th in educational spending per child according to Education Week’s “Quality Counts 2004,” http://www.edweek.org/, showing little improvement since the state was profiled in 2001. Per pupil spending increased from $4,879 (1999-00) to $5,278 in 2000-01, 72% of the national average of $7,376, according to the National Center for Educational Statistics, http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/pub_rev_exp.asp. PAGE 6 This increase helped earn the state a D for “Resources: adequacy” on its “Quality Counts 2004” report card, an improvement over the F assigned in the last three reports. Using the NCES per pupil expenditures adjusted for regional spending differences, top ranking New Jersey spent $9,762, with 25 states spending more than the US average. Arizona’s adjusted per pupil spending was $5,319 (placing the state 49th). Also contributing to the higher grade was the passage of Proposition 301 in November 2000 instituting a 0.6% increase in the state sales tax, 88% of which was dedicated to funding K-12 education. These funds are now flowing to districts and are being used to increase both per pupil spending and teacher salaries. Although still below the national average ($38,510 vs. the US avg. $44,367), teacher salaries have indeed improved with Arizona moving from 40th (1999-00) to 32nd (unadjusted) in the 2002 American Federation of Teachers teacher salary survey, http://www.aft.org/research/survey02/Salary Survey02.pdf. Nevertheless, the state’s “Quality Counts” grade for “Improving Teacher Quality” (which considers education and certification requirements for teachers) slipped from D to D- and 49th place. In her recent State of the State address, Governor Napolitano promised to devote $250,000 to establishing the Arizona Master Teachers program to assist teachers financially in obtaining training for master teacher status. According to “Quality Counts,” Arizona does not financially support any ongoing professional development for teachers, including any form of mentoring. Furthermore, Arizona is one of only 19 states that do not require beginning high school teachers to hold a major or minor in the subject they will teach in order to be licensed. Only 52% of Arizona’s secondary teachers majored in the core subjects they teach, compared to the US average of 64% and the high of 86% in Minnesota, dropping the state into 48th place. Aiding education in the past two years was a 2% increase in state aid required by Prop. 301 and the passage of Prop. 300, a measure designed to protect revenue generated by the sale of state school trust lands so that funds directly benefit classrooms. However, lawmakers borrowed more than $300 million from a fund earmarked for school construction projects and instituted a program that would instead allow the state to spread the cost of the new schools over 20 years. Also, voters defeated Prop. 201, a measure that would have devoted a portion of Indian gaming revenues to education programs (See “Quality Counts 2003: Arizona,” http://www.edweek.org/sreports/ qc03/templates/state.cfm?slug=17qcaz.h22; “Quality Counts 2004: Arizona,” http://www. edweek.org/sreports/qc04/state.cfm?slug= 17az.h23. How are Arizona’s students doing? In the 2002 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 25% of Arizona’s 8th grade students scored at or above proficiency in reading, below the dismal US average of 30%, and placing the state 42nd. Top ranking Massachusetts had 43% of its 8th graders at or above proficiency. Thirty-three states scored 30% or better, with 18 states below the US average. Arizona 8th graders did worse in math, with only 21% at or above proficiency compared to a national average of 27%. This placed the state 40th with 31 states above the US average, and 19 below. Minnesota was in first place with a high of 44%. In the biennial study by the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education “Measuring Up: 2002,” http://measuringup. highereducation.org/2002/reporthome.htm, Arizona placed 50th in the nation with only 73% of 18-24 year olds holding high school certificates, down from 77% and 48th in 2000. Maine had 95% of its young people receiving certificates, with nineteen states boasting at or above 90%, and only Arizona and Nevada falling below 80%. Arizona showed no improvement in the percentage of students enrolling in college immediately after high school, ranking 47th with 28%. The proportion of Arizona’s young adults, ages 18-24, enrolling in college is 26%, slipping from 27% in 2000, and placing Arizona in 45th place. Forty-nine percent of Arizona’s first-time, full-time students complete a bachelor’s degree in 6 years, ranking Arizona 29th (44% finish within 5 years). Twenty-six percent of Arizona adults hold bachelor’s degrees or higher, placing the state 29th. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY Much of the data used in the preceding studies is from the Current Population Survey conducted jointly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the US Census Bureau, as well as from surveys conducted by the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). The most exhaustive survey of the population is the decennial US Census, most recently completed in 2000. According to the 2000 Census, 69% of Arizona’s 18 to 24 year olds held high school certificates (compared to the US average of 75%), and 24% of Arizona adults 25 and older held a bachelor’s degree or higher (US average is 24%). The high school drop-out rate is often cited as a measure of the effectiveness of the public school system. According to the 2000 Census, 15% of Arizona’s 16 to 19 year olds were not attending school and had not completed a degree. The study “Kid’s Count 2003,” http://www.aecf.org/kidscount/ databook/, derives a drop out rate of 17% from the 1989–2001 Current Population Surveys done by the BLS. In an Arizona Center for Public Policy (ACPP) paper “ Understanding before action: An explanation of Arizona public school dropout rates,” http://www.thinkaz.org/html/ research/documents/DropoutPaper.pdf, David Garcia notes that this dropout rate generated by national surveys may be useful in profiling the workforce, but may not necessarily be a good indicator of the success of the school system. He remarks that data profiling schools is also collected at the state level by state departments of education. While states have the opportunity to collect and verify more detailed data than the national studies, there is at present a lack of consistency in the way different departments of education define and report the data making cross-state comparisons using this data difficult or invalid. However, such data, if collected rigorously and routinely, can indicate trends over time within the state and give a good indication of performance. Standardizing data collection between states could potentially yield more detailed and useful information than national surveys. In other sections of its “Quality Counts” report card, for “School Climate” (which considers class size, school size, absenteeism, parent involvement, charter schools), Arizona’s grade improved considerably from D- to B- and 10th place among the states. This was attributed to statewide open-enrollment and a strong charter school law as well as a high number of middle- and high-school students attending small schools. The state improved to a C- and 33rd place from a D+ in “Resource Equity” (differences in per student spending among districts, equalization efforts); and increased to a B and 18th place from a C+ in “Standards and Accountability” (clear standards, accurate assessment, school accountability). Our society has long valued educated citizens as the foundation of democracy and, clearly, education is a key to increasing our national quality of life, wealth, and productivity. Arizona clearly faces many challenges in offering the quality of education our children need to be creative, productive, and successful citizens of the future. However, the investment of our tax dollars and time to meet these challenges and improve our public schools will certainly yield the highest rate of return of any investment we could make. ■ 1 2 Greenspan, Alan. “Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan at the 33rd Annual Legislative Conference of the Congressional Black Caucus, Washington, D.C.” September 26, 2003. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/ 20030926/default.htm Greenspan, Alan. “The economic importance of improving mathscience education.” Presented before the Committee on Education and the Workforce, U.S. House of Representatives. September 21, 2000. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2000/ 20000921.htm ARIZONA’S REPORT CARD Expenditure per Pupil, 2000-01 "Quality Counts 2004" (Adjusted for regional cost differences by "Quality Counts 2004") (adjusted expenditure) Expenditure/Pupil Rank Arizona $5,319 49 United States $7,376 Student Achievement (K-12), NAEP 2002 (percent scoring at or above proficient) NCES Expenditure/Pupil 8th grade NAEP reading (2003) $5,278 25 $7,376 30 Rank 8th grade NAEP math (2003) Rank 42 21 41 27 Percent of 18- to 24year-olds who have a high school credential Measuring Up: 2002 Teacher's Salaries, 2002 American Federation of Teachers Salary Survey (adjusted using cost of living index) State Average Salary Rank Average Adj. Salary Adj. Rank Percent Rank Arizona $38,510 32 $39,311 41 73% 50 U.S. Average $44,367 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY $44,367 PAGE 7 Order the Award-winning 2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract T he authoritative source for economic and social information for Arizona and its political subdivisions, the 2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract includes data on physical resources of the state, human resources (such as population, vital statistics, health, education, employment and welfare), public sector activities, and various economic measures such as output, sales, jobs, etc. Included are statistics from numerous sources such as the 2000 Census of Population and Housing, Economic Censuses, Annual Survey of Manufacturers, and County Business Patterns, to name a few. Data are presented by jurisdiction as well as comparisons to other states. The presentation is both comprehensive and concise. The 2003 edition of the Arizona Statistical Abstract is now available. Order your copy now by filling out the form below and return it by mail with a check payable to Economic and Business Research. ORDER FORM Mail to: Economic and Business Research Eller College of Business and Public Administration McClelland Hall 103 $54.95 each (includes $5.00 shipping and handling) The University of Arizona $70.00 each international order (includes S&H) P.O. Box 210108 ❑ check enclosed ❑ send invoice Tucson, AZ 85721-0108 All orders must be prepaid prior to shipment. I would like ____ copies of the 2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract at AE 4/04 Fax to: (520) 621-2150 Name__________________________________________________________________ Title ___________________________________________________________________ Organization _____________________________________________________________ Address ________________________________________________________________ City _____________________________ State _____________ Zip ________________ Telephone_________________________ Fax__________________________________ E-mail _________________________________________________________________ PAGE 8 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A APACHE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units NAVAJO COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 21,925 18,500 3,425 15.6 21,150 18,425 2,725 12.9 20,675 18,050 2,625 12.7 20,375 17,900 2,475 12.1 20,575 17,925 2,650 12.9 -4.0 -2.8 -10.9 -7.2 -1.5 -2.5 5.1 6.7 18,825 6,450 700 18,125 1,550 4,200 12,375 2,825 9,550 19,000 6,350 675 18,325 1,525 4,150 12,650 2,825 9,825 18,725 6,125 675 18,050 1,475 3,975 12,600 2,725 9,875 18,675 5,975 650 18,025 1,525 3,800 12,700 2,750 9,950 18,750 5,875 600 18,150 1,525 3,750 12,875 2,750 10,125 -1.4 -6.4 -17.2 -0.8 -10.3 -2.6 1.0 -1.8 1.8 -1.7 -5.8 -4.3 -1.6 -11.1 -4.0 0.4 -1.3 0.9 11,641 4,692 1,103 5,846 2,728 3,939 1,549 10,973 5,221 959 4,793 2,587 7,008 895 10,476 5,139 874 4,463 2,719 11,237 949 8,895 4,407 648 3,840 2,455 8,503 490 ... ... ... 3,752 2,500 ... ... 5.0 -0.5 33.9 20.7 4.8 73.8 14.2 10.6 0.6 2.5 25.9 -2.2 18.8 7.1 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 2 2 0.0 0.0 18.3 18.3 35,400 31,050 4,350 12.3 34,825 31,175 3,650 10.5 34,375 30,950 3,425 10.0 33,575 30,425 3,150 9.4 33,800 30,300 3,500 10.4 -1.6 -1.0 -6.7 -5.1 -0.8 -1.1 1.6 2.4 27,225 17,250 3,350 1,000 1,525 825 23,875 5,525 600 625 825 2,475 3,075 775 9,975 1,525 8,450 27,625 17,125 3,275 1,000 1,475 800 24,350 5,500 600 650 825 2,525 3,000 750 10,500 1,525 8,975 27,675 17,125 3,350 1,025 1,525 800 24,325 5,550 600 625 825 2,600 2,800 775 10,550 1,400 9,150 27,375 16,800 3,275 975 1,500 800 24,100 5,600 625 675 800 2,575 2,500 750 10,575 1,375 9,200 27,350 16,775 3,250 975 1,450 825 24,100 5,550 625 700 825 2,625 2,450 750 10,575 1,400 9,175 0.5 3.2 3.2 5.4 3.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 19.0 12.0 0.0 6.1 1.0 0.0 -3.6 -6.7 -3.2 -0.4 1.4 -1.7 0.2 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 4.5 9.4 1.3 3.5 -1.2 0.9 -3.4 -3.1 -9.2 -2.1 74,116 54,693 6,663 12,760 5,956 13,880 2,749 69,065 51,795 7,124 10,146 5,476 14,876 2,814 65,100 50,279 5,733 9,088 5,536 15,299 2,283 64,883 48,914 5,016 10,953 7,003 10,781 1,866 ... ... ... 8,114 5,405 ... ... 4.0 -5.2 11.4 32.5 15.1 -23.9 12.0 4.3 -1.8 5.7 53.0 18.4 8.1 2.4 36 36 38 38 42 42 31 31 19 19 58.3 58.3 -10.6 -8.5 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 9 A R I Z O N A GRAHAM COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting COCONINO COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 10,475 9,650 825 7.9 10,575 9,825 750 7.1 10,600 9,925 675 6.4 10,450 9,850 600 5.7 10,325 9,700 625 6.1 -2.6 -0.5 -26.5 -24.5 -7.8 -7.0 -16.5 -9.5 6,500 4,250 400 6,100 1,500 2,350 2,250 375 1,875 6,650 4,225 400 6,250 1,500 2,325 2,425 350 2,075 6,700 4,225 400 6,300 1,500 2,325 2,475 350 2,125 6,750 4,275 400 6,350 1,525 2,350 2,475 325 2,150 6,675 4,200 375 6,300 1,525 2,300 2,475 350 2,125 3.1 -1.2 -11.8 4.1 1.7 -1.1 11.2 0.0 13.3 -5.0 -2.7 -7.8 -4.8 2.0 -4.6 -9.1 -2.4 -10.2 14,894 11,798 1,425 1,671 780 2,455 13,533 11,018 996 1,519 820 2,951 13,813 11,265 942 1,606 978 3,701 14,359 11,179 1,730 1,450 927 1,576 ... ... ... 1,318 878 ... -0.2 -6.2 46.0 1.1 -12.2 -56.4 6.3 5.4 -3.9 22.7 -5.2 -6.2 68,625 64,025 4,600 6.7 67,350 63,350 4,000 5.9 65,800 62,175 3,625 5.5 64,525 60,825 3,700 5.7 63,850 59,700 4,150 6.5 -2.5 -2.9 3.8 6.4 -2.0 -2.6 8.2 10.2 58,600 40,375 5,525 125 2,250 3,150 53,075 9,750 425 1,400 2,750 6,825 11,875 1,825 18,225 3,450 14,775 58,975 39,650 5,525 125 2,250 3,150 53,450 9,850 425 1,400 2,675 6,875 11,075 1,825 19,325 3,450 15,875 58,450 39,500 5,550 125 2,300 3,125 52,900 9,850 400 1,325 2,725 6,950 10,900 1,800 18,950 3,150 15,800 57,625 39,200 5,475 100 2,275 3,100 52,150 9,875 425 1,375 2,725 7,000 10,550 1,775 18,425 2,975 15,450 56,775 38,825 5,450 100 2,250 3,100 51,325 9,775 375 1,375 2,675 7,100 10,325 1,750 17,950 3,050 14,900 -1.5 -0.6 -0.9 -20.0 1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -3.9 -11.8 -3.5 0.0 8.4 -2.1 -1.4 -3.4 -7.6 -2.5 -2.2 0.8 -2.7 -4.9 -13.5 6.8 -2.2 1.6 -10.7 -4.8 -2.2 4.8 1.2 3.2 -8.2 -8.1 -8.2 131,933 84,310 25,347 22,276 10,397 29,130 19,371 111,481 71,512 23,500 16,469 8,889 33,782 18,307 113,181 75,331 22,396 15,454 9,415 27,401 16,199 99,751 70,069 18,160 11,522 7,367 26,917 10,091 ... ... ... 11,670 7,774 ... ... -1.2 -1.1 3.7 -29.3 -38.6 29.3 15.7 0.5 -0.4 3.0 -2.5 -24.6 9.9 5.2 60 60 330 78 72 68 76 76 94 92 51.6 48.4 38.6 1.4 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. PAGE 10 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A GREENLEE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel* E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S DEC 2003 % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 3,900 3,600 300 7.7 3,800 3,525 275 7.2 3,700 3,450 250 6.8 3,625 3,400 225 6.2 3,600 3,375 225 6.3 -7.7 -5.6 -30.8 -25.0 -5.6 -3.7 -24.3 -19.8 3,550 3,025 2,375 1,175 250 400 525 50 475 3,550 3,000 2,375 1,175 250 375 550 50 500 3,500 2,950 2,350 1,150 250 350 550 50 500 3,475 2,925 2,325 1,150 250 350 550 50 500 3,425 2,875 2,300 1,125 250 325 550 50 500 -4.2 -5.0 -3.2 -6.3 -9.1 -13.3 0.0 100.0 -4.8 -2.2 -2.6 -2.4 -1.9 -4.5 -2.2 -0.4 22.2 -2.1 6,074 5,454 199 421 197 600 516 5,991 5,391 183 417 225 707 313 6,083 5,467 289 327 199 425 263 4,847 4,436 135 276 176 584 436 ... ... ... 371 247 ... ... -7.1 -7.9 -8.8 62.7 41.3 -77.0 23.9 28.3 30.3 -7.2 28.3 -1.5 -11.1 -8.0 83,175 80,450 2,725 3.3 82,200 79,550 2,650 3.2 82,025 79,500 2,525 3.1 81,400 79,050 2,350 2.9 80,175 77,800 2,375 3.0 -1.2 -0.6 -16.7 -15.7 1.9 2.4 -9.6 -11.4 54,275 44,225 9,875 875 5,825 3,175 44,400 10,150 675 1,875 4,950 7,675 7,450 1,575 10,050 1,300 8,750 54,500 43,725 9,675 875 5,700 3,100 44,825 10,175 675 1,875 4,750 7,650 7,350 1,575 10,775 1,275 9,500 54,850 43,975 9,725 900 5,750 3,075 45,125 10,400 675 1,850 4,550 7,850 7,375 1,550 10,875 1,300 9,575 54,800 43,925 9,625 900 5,700 3,025 45,175 10,450 675 1,825 4,600 7,850 7,350 1,550 10,875 1,275 9,600 54,275 43,875 9,475 875 5,575 3,025 44,800 10,550 675 1,850 4,650 7,850 7,275 1,550 10,400 1,275 9,125 0.6 1.3 -1.6 -2.8 0.9 -5.5 1.1 3.2 0.0 2.8 3.3 4.7 -0.3 -7.5 -2.3 0.0 -2.7 2.4 2.8 0.3 -3.7 1.6 -1.0 2.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 8.9 3.0 4.9 -7.9 0.8 4.8 0.3 136,930 101,406 17,967 17,557 8,194 59,911 6,745 129,612 99,497 17,209 12,906 6,966 43,319 6,483 129,142 98,733 18,125 12,284 7,483 44,964 7,838 128,813 96,905 21,393 10,515 6,723 43,037 5,557 ... ... ... 10,414 6,937 ... ... 14.3 8.5 45.0 17.5 2.1 6.4 6.8 11.1 9.7 7.0 35.8 3.8 14.2 -0.3 219 209 208 189 243 226 208 182 222 209 20.0 16.8 -5.9 11.4 * Includes Graham County data. YAVAPAI COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 11 A R I Z O N A GILA COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel MOHAVE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 18,475 16,950 1,525 8.3 18,200 16,775 1,425 7.8 18,050 16,725 1,325 7.3 17,825 16,625 1,200 6.7 17,625 16,425 1,200 6.8 -1.7 -0.8 -12.7 -11.2 -4.5 -4.5 -4.7 -0.2 13,375 8,725 1,925 11,450 2,000 4,800 4,650 525 4,125 13,350 8,650 1,900 11,450 2,000 4,750 4,700 525 4,175 13,450 8,850 1,925 11,525 2,050 4,875 4,600 450 4,150 13,450 8,875 1,925 11,525 2,075 4,875 4,575 400 4,175 13,350 8,850 2,050 11,300 2,075 4,725 4,500 350 4,150 0.0 2.3 -3.5 0.7 -1.2 6.8 -4.3 -22.2 -2.4 -4.0 -4.1 -14.1 -2.0 -6.6 2.1 -3.9 -16.5 -2.3 29,569 19,373 4,361 5,835 2,723 7,370 1,055 28,410 19,604 3,887 4,919 2,655 8,069 943 27,010 18,995 3,826 4,189 2,552 8,540 807 25,993 18,567 4,017 3,409 2,180 8,931 707 ... ... ... 3,233 2,153 ... ... 7.1 -0.6 23.3 24.9 8.5 17.7 -16.8 7.5 2.1 4.0 50.6 14.4 -1.4 -0.4 76,925 72,975 3,950 5.1 76,525 72,875 3,650 4.8 76,250 72,700 3,550 4.7 76,025 72,675 3,350 4.4 75,700 72,400 3,300 4.4 2.2 3.0 -13.2 -15.0 1.5 2.2 -11.0 -12.2 45,700 37,775 8,800 75 5,600 3,125 36,900 9,975 900 1,550 3,300 5,775 5,300 2,175 7,925 475 7,450 45,900 37,775 9,000 75 5,750 3,175 36,900 10,000 900 1,575 3,250 5,725 5,175 2,150 8,125 500 7,625 46,200 38,175 9,250 75 5,950 3,225 36,950 10,050 875 1,575 3,300 5,725 5,175 2,225 8,025 475 7,550 46,650 38,450 9,125 75 5,850 3,200 37,525 10,325 900 1,600 3,425 5,700 5,175 2,200 8,200 475 7,725 46,725 38,450 9,125 100 5,775 3,250 37,600 10,325 875 1,625 3,400 5,750 5,125 2,225 8,275 500 7,775 3.9 4.1 3.4 33.3 0.9 7.4 4.0 2.0 -2.8 6.6 7.1 3.1 9.6 3.5 3.1 0.0 3.3 2.6 2.2 -0.8 -14.0 -1.5 1.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.6 -4.1 5.2 127,554 91,528 13,841 22,185 10,355 34,224 4,171 122,771 93,980 13,485 15,306 8,262 33,444 3,209 117,710 90,222 12,686 14,802 9,018 33,720 3,166 120,837 96,488 12,735 11,614 7,426 31,198 2,177 ... ... ... 12,843 8,555 ... ... 12.2 14.7 -3.6 10.2 -4.3 20.4 5.9 9.3 7.2 4.5 27.6 -1.8 3.2 5.9 276 250 291 253 327 291 231 197 273 228 -0.7 7.0 24.5 19.3 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. PAGE 12 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A LA PAZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S DEC 2003 % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 6,950 6,450 500 7.2 6,800 6,350 450 6.6 6,725 6,325 400 5.9 6,625 6,275 350 5.3 6,675 6,275 400 6.0 -7.3 -7.0 -11.1 -4.1 -3.6 -4.5 11.7 15.8 4,950 2,475 275 4,675 1,200 1,000 2,475 175 2,300 4,825 2,375 225 4,600 1,175 975 2,450 175 2,275 4,750 2,350 225 4,525 1,150 975 2,400 150 2,250 4,775 2,350 200 4,575 1,150 1,000 2,425 150 2,275 4,825 2,350 200 4,625 1,150 1,000 2,475 175 2,300 -3.5 -10.5 -42.9 -0.5 -9.8 0.0 4.2 0.0 4.5 -1.2 -6.6 -19.6 0.2 -4.3 -5.2 5.1 8.1 4.9 14,796 7,496 1,673 5,627 2,627 1,321 526 11,679 6,257 1,636 3,786 2,044 1,712 452 12,178 6,983 1,436 3,759 2,290 2,371 439 13,231 7,301 2,299 3,631 2,322 1,198 321 ... ... ... 3,922 2,612 ... ... 25.1 14.0 42.8 21.0 5.1 -19.0 -8.5 10.8 1.8 6.6 34.9 3.0 -19.4 -2.5 79,175 52,400 26,775 33.8 75,050 52,925 22,125 29.5 71,400 54,550 16,850 23.6 69,475 55,650 13,825 19.9 68,900 57,400 11,500 16.7 -4.3 -3.0 -10.3 -6.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.2 2.6 41,450 28,825 5,475 25 3,850 1,600 35,975 7,425 1,100 1,350 2,625 5,375 4,075 1,400 12,625 2,675 9,950 41,750 28,950 5,450 25 3,825 1,600 36,300 7,575 1,075 1,350 2,650 5,425 4,025 1,400 12,800 2,675 10,125 43,025 29,975 5,600 25 3,850 1,725 37,425 7,775 1,175 1,425 2,900 5,525 4,150 1,425 13,050 2,650 10,400 44,700 31,475 6,050 25 4,000 2,025 38,650 8,525 1,200 1,475 2,875 5,625 4,250 1,475 13,225 2,675 10,550 46,350 33,125 6,500 25 4,000 2,475 39,850 9,350 1,225 1,450 3,025 5,700 4,350 1,525 13,225 2,725 10,500 0.0 0.6 11.6 0.0 9.6 15.1 -1.7 -9.2 25.6 1.8 12.0 2.7 -6.5 1.7 -1.5 -0.9 -1.6 0.9 0.5 4.2 0.0 9.7 -5.1 0.4 -5.2 15.6 6.7 1.3 5.5 -3.6 -1.3 2.0 -0.2 2.6 97,293 71,974 9,919 15,400 7,188 23,191 2,309 94,029 72,233 9,283 12,513 6,754 25,510 2,594 104,913 82,364 10,242 12,307 7,498 23,035 2,635 113,573 89,305 11,705 12,563 8,033 26,918 2,623 ... ... ... 13,062 8,701 ... ... 7.9 6.8 13.3 10.4 -4.1 45.8 5.4 9.9 8.2 6.8 23.7 -5.1 19.8 15.7 192 192 140 140 162 162 148 148 106 106 -43.6 1.9 12.5 23.3 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 13 A R I Z O N A SANTA CRUZ COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Private Service-Providing Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units COCHISE COUNTY Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Total Private Goods-Producing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State and Local Government Sales ($000) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 15,175 12,525 2,650 17.5 14,975 12,300 2,675 17.9 14,775 12,400 2,375 16.1 14,475 12,775 1,700 11.7 14,550 13,100 1,450 10.0 0.7 2.5 -13.4 -14.0 -0.0 1.6 -9.9 -9.3 12,075 8,875 1,325 10,750 4,825 2,725 3,200 1,125 2,075 11,950 8,800 1,325 10,625 4,750 2,725 3,150 1,125 2,025 12,100 8,925 1,300 10,800 4,900 2,725 3,175 1,125 2,050 12,625 9,450 1,300 11,325 5,375 2,775 3,175 1,125 2,050 13,000 9,775 1,275 11,725 5,750 2,750 3,225 1,150 2,075 4.6 5.7 -1.9 5.4 12.2 -2.7 1.6 2.2 1.2 3.0 4.8 0.0 3.4 10.4 -2.1 -2.1 -1.1 -2.6 30,529 22,504 3,035 4,990 2,329 4,892 672 26,811 20,286 2,084 4,441 2,397 6,502 637 29,232 21,927 3,088 4,217 2,569 6,524 900 35,215 28,391 2,647 4,177 2,671 6,285 620 ... ... ... 4,549 3,030 ... ... 15.8 13.8 1.3 52.7 32.6 79.2 -19.4 9.8 5.4 5.2 54.1 18.2 37.3 3.1 31 31 50 48 44 34 47 47 46 44 109.1 100.0 15.8 33.2 46,100 43,600 2,500 5.4 45,650 43,425 2,225 4.9 45,725 43,800 1,925 4.2 45,275 43,425 1,850 4.1 45,075 43,225 1,850 4.1 -3.4 -2.3 -22.9 -20.2 0.0 0.3 -4.7 -4.9 33,725 22,625 3,100 50 2,025 1,025 30,625 5,950 500 875 3,400 3,650 4,025 1,125 11,100 4,650 6,450 33,975 22,400 3,075 50 2,000 1,025 30,900 5,975 500 875 3,375 3,600 3,850 1,150 11,575 4,675 6,900 34,425 22,750 3,125 50 2,075 1,000 31,300 6,050 500 875 3,400 3,675 3,950 1,175 11,675 4,675 7,000 34,300 22,600 3,000 50 2,000 950 31,300 6,175 475 875 3,350 3,650 3,900 1,175 11,700 4,675 7,025 34,350 22,625 2,950 50 2,050 850 31,400 6,175 475 900 3,375 3,675 3,900 1,175 11,725 4,725 7,000 -0.4 -0.7 -5.6 100.0 -4.7 -10.5 0.1 -0.8 0.0 5.9 -2.2 3.5 -3.1 9.3 0.0 3.3 -2.1 1.3 1.4 0.3 58.3 -5.4 13.6 1.4 0.3 2.6 2.0 -0.8 1.8 5.4 2.1 0.9 2.8 -0.3 72,985 57,463 7,937 7,585 3,540 17,512 2,030 68,704 53,194 7,717 7,793 4,207 18,255 1,916 68,340 52,973 7,845 7,522 4,582 21,735 2,103 70,612 55,811 7,809 6,992 4,470 16,597 2,150 ... ... ... 7,490 4,990 ... ... 10.9 11.2 7.1 10.3 -4.2 23.1 15.2 7.7 9.8 -3.0 3.7 -19.9 30.8 2.2 62 62 66 66 78 78 53 53 53 53 29.3 29.3 10.7 11.2 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. PAGE 14 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR Total Units Single Family Units 2-5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S DEC 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 427.7 407.7 20.0 4.6 428.5 410.0 18.5 4.2 430.1 413.4 16.7 3.9 429.8 414.4 15.4 3.6 429.4 414.2 15.2 3.5 4.3 5.1 -13.6 -16.7 5.9 6.2 -0.0 -6.1 343.3 1.4 23.5 29.1 5.6 11.8 7.2 40.2 7.7 7.2 14.8 40.8 46.1 5.0 7.3 24.7 15.0 9.6 63.7 40.1 350.7 1.4 23.9 29.1 5.7 11.9 7.2 40.0 7.7 7.2 15.0 41.5 46.5 5.3 7.3 25.1 15.1 9.5 68.9 45.7 356.0 1.4 24.0 29.0 5.6 11.8 7.3 40.8 7.7 7.3 15.3 42.0 46.7 5.5 7.6 25.6 15.0 9.8 71.0 47.9 358.2 1.4 24.2 29.0 5.7 11.8 7.3 42.4 7.8 7.3 15.3 41.9 46.9 5.5 7.6 25.8 15.0 9.7 71.1 48.1 359.8 1.4 24.0 29.1 5.7 11.7 7.3 43.0 7.8 7.3 15.5 41.9 47.0 5.5 7.7 26.0 15.0 9.8 71.5 48.2 2.0 0.0 4.8 -1.4 1.8 -4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 -5.2 9.9 2.4 5.1 1.9 1.3 5.3 2.0 2.1 -0.4 0.4 1.0 -9.7 5.4 -4.4 -1.7 -6.5 -1.0 2.3 1.2 -6.1 4.6 -1.2 4.3 -0.6 -3.3 2.4 2.7 3.3 0.2 1.2 785,064 532,926 98,318 81,868 71,952 152,708 15,321 734,139 488,241 101,872 83,593 60,432 141,121 16,373 748,057 500,651 106,291 85,502 55,613 141,745 21,885 764,068 529,614 108,159 87,761 38,533 140,952 22,347 ... ... ... ... 50,240 ... ... 6.9 8.8 12.0 2.8 5.9 6.5 7.8 5.0 3.4 8.5 0.5 23.4 8.3 2.7 815 800 15 704 690 14 820 795 25 806 729 78 694 656 38 34.5 32.0 100.5 3.8 18.1 -65.4 229,975 1,287 178,691 224,634 1,193 188,293 218,531 1,173 186,301 166,475 965 172,513 189,934 1,081 175,702 1.5 5.8 -4.0 16.4 10.5 4.9 265,330 17,473 246,490 18,847 288,878 20,106 288,367 18,220 308,589 18,187 -3.0 -21.0 0.0 -9.5 IV 2002 I 2003 II 2003 III 2003 IV 2003 897.8 1.2 3.1 1.9 3.5 902.8 1.2 3.1 1.9 3.9 908.3 1.3 3.1 1.9 4.2 914.0 1.3 3.2 1.9 4.5 919.9 1.3 3.2 1.9 4.6 2.5 7.8 2.6 -0.6 31.9 2.3 10.0 2.7 -1.7 13.0 22,450 13,751 842 112 5,383 4,046 25,007 22,696 13,898 853 114 5,415 4,122 25,138 22,930 14,029 863 115 5,446 4,203 25,246 23,164 14,160 873 116 5,476 4,284 25,344 23,398 14,292 883 118 5,507 4,364 25,436 4.2 3.9 4.9 5.2 2.3 7.9 1.7 4.2 3.9 4.8 4.8 2.3 8.2 1.9 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 % change versus year ago for most recent: quarter 4-quarters See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 15 A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Durable Goods Fabricated Metal Products Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Non-Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 1,803.4 1,704.6 98.8 5.4 1,791.3 1,699.2 92.1 4.9 1,787.5 1,706.6 80.9 4.4 1,789.3 1,715.9 73.4 4.1 1,789.0 1,715.7 73.3 4.2 -0.5 0.8 -23.2 -22.2 -0.2 0.5 -12.1 -11.6 1,595.1 2.3 130.2 103.0 12.5 38.3 15.3 27.0 76.4 188.5 7.4 52.7 35.8 95.8 34.6 258.8 25.0 139.9 19.6 24.3 106.2 63.4 21.7 182.5 88.2 1,613.7 2.3 131.2 102.5 12.4 37.9 15.4 27.0 76.3 189.3 7.5 52.7 35.8 95.4 34.7 261.5 24.7 140.0 19.8 25.3 106.5 63.6 21.8 195.8 101.8 1,630.7 2.4 132.5 102.1 12.4 37.7 15.4 27.0 76.4 192.2 7.5 53.8 35.9 95.4 34.9 263.6 25.4 140.6 20.2 25.5 108.4 63.7 21.9 201.3 106.2 1,646.4 2.4 133.8 102.2 12.4 37.8 15.4 27.1 76.6 200.0 7.5 53.7 36.0 96.0 35.1 262.7 25.8 141.7 21.0 26.1 110.8 63.8 21.9 202.2 107.7 1,653.3 2.4 132.7 102.2 12.4 37.7 15.4 26.9 76.6 204.1 7.5 53.7 36.2 96.5 35.6 263.8 25.4 141.9 20.9 26.6 111.2 64.0 22.6 202.5 107.7 2.5 4.3 5.3 -4.0 -4.6 -6.9 0.0 -3.2 -0.6 2.3 -1.3 1.9 -3.2 1.0 3.5 4.5 10.9 5.2 0.0 3.9 2.7 4.7 0.0 2.3 4.4 1.1 -1.4 2.7 -6.8 -5.3 -9.9 -0.4 -2.1 -1.2 1.5 -4.2 3.1 -6.7 -0.8 2.7 1.8 9.9 5.9 3.0 1.8 1.6 3.5 4.7 0.9 3.3 3,371,455 2,311,316 419,515 357,262 283,362 717,226 49,042 3,320,211 2,265,143 434,682 387,237 233,149 774,597 59,230 3,320,742 2,249,591 453,536 392,370 225,245 797,442 86,674 3,455,882 2,387,525 461,508 417,609 189,240 689,122 104,368 ... ... ... ... 205,314 ... ... 8.5 7.0 15.6 10.9 16.1 4.7 25.5 7.6 5.0 11.9 6.5 32.8 3.3 9.9 4,437 4,160 56 221 4,778 4,236 36 506 5,142 3,911 294 937 3,779 2,927 49 803 5,313 4,441 44 828 36.3 65.2 10.0 -29.1 12.5 14.8 46.2 -4.8 1,493,575 7,360 202,931 1,297,492 6,549 198,121 1,833,100 6,216 294,900 1,086,033 5,412 200,671 1,277,588 6,023 212,118 22.2 8.3 12.9 31.8 17.6 12.3 3,255,811 45,812 2,758,216 43,671 3,147,895 46,617 2,979,452 43,681 ... ... 3.5 -3.8 6.8 0.3 See sources and abbreviations below. Sources and abbreviations: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce PAGE 16 BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Program, The University of Arizona NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C IV 2002 I 2003 PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population 3,529.7 3,557.9 Natural Increase 8.2 8.0 Births 14.6 14.5 Deaths 6.4 6.4 Net Migration 18.6 20.2 Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income 101,143 102,520 Earnings by Place of Work 74,898 75,912 Less: Contributions for Social Insurance 4,758 4,828 Plus: Adjustment for Residence -53 -53 Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents 18,050 18,194 Plus: Transfer Payments 13,006 13,294 Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR 28,655 28,815 ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA Wages and Salaries Other Labor Income EBR Proprietor’s Income Farm Nonfarm Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR I N D I C A T O R S III 2003 IV 2003 3,587.5 8.0 14.5 6.5 21.5 3,618.3 8.0 14.6 6.6 22.9 3,649.9 8.0 14.6 6.6 23.5 3.4 -1.8 0.7 3.9 26.6 3.3 -3.4 -0.2 4.0 14.6 103,831 76,843 4,893 -52 18,339 13,594 28,943 105,142 77,774 4,958 -52 18,483 13,895 29,058 106,453 78,704 5,023 -51 18,628 14,195 29,166 5.2 5.1 5.6 4.8 3.2 9.1 1.8 5.3 5.1 5.6 4.8 3.2 9.6 1.9 5,531.7 11.8 21.9 10.1 27.4 5,571.0 12.1 21.9 9.9 27.2 5,610.2 12.4 22.2 9.8 26.8 5,649.4 12.0 22.2 10.1 27.1 5,688.7 11.9 22.3 10.4 27.5 2.8 0.7 1.8 3.0 0.3 2.9 7.2 1.7 -4.2 -1.0 144,821 101,443 6,378 608 27,134 22,017 147,312 103,448 6,567 616 27,312 22,504 149,053 104,685 6,652 622 27,354 23,048 151,562 106,510 6,778 630 27,717 23,486 154,162 108,218 6,902 637 28,383 23,827 6.4 6.7 8.2 4.8 4.6 8.2 5.6 5.9 7.4 4.2 2.3 8.9 81,124 9,538 10,964 607 10,357 26,180 35,175 82,612 9,774 11,130 665 10,465 26,443 35,212 83,448 9,869 11,309 568 10,742 26,568 35,894 84,624 10,051 11,845 733 11,112 26,828 36,092 85,970 10,097 ... ... ... 27,100 ... 6.0 5.9 11.7 64.3 9.3 3.5 3.5 5.0 8.4 8.5 22.2 7.7 2.7 2.8 AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USBCBP U.S. Citizens Aliens MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS U.S. - All Urban U.S. - Wage Earners % change versus year ago for most recent: quarter 4-quarters II 2003 % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months 2,237,591 146,089 752,325 1,339,177 154,796 20,819 97,192 36,785 1,663,612 136,468 534,291 992,853 126,598 20,051 81,099 25,448 1,454,489 140,411 495,491 818,587 184,021 30,129 125,196 28,696 1,450,472 133,514 418,565 898,393 444,950 58,271 241,177 145,502 1,371,444 121,425 388,087 861,932 520,515 77,131 286,729 156,655 81.5 70.2 65.8 91.4 143.1 98.9 73.7 1,421.5 8.0 6.2 7.7 8.4 16.1 10.4 8.5 57.5 729,747 2,022,406 698,074 1,923,143 734,593 2,027,650 748,329 2,173,925 694,438 1,981,063 -41.8 -6.8 -14.4 -9.1 184.6 180.3 185.2 181.0 185.0 180.7 184.5 180.2 184.3 179.9 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.2 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY PAGE 17 A R I Z O N A ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Natural Resources and Mining Construction Durable Goods Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Products Computer and Electronic Prod. Aerospace Products and Parts Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Svcs and Drinking Places Other Services Federal Government State and Local Government State and Local Government Education Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Utilities Communications Amusements Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 Chapter 13 E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for most recent: month 12-months AUG 2003 SEP 2003 OCT 2003 NOV 2003 DEC 2003 2,697.5 2,524.6 172.9 6.0 2,676.8 2,519.6 157.2 5.6 2,667.6 2,530.6 137.0 5.0 2,662.7 2,539.2 123.5 4.8 2,659.3 2,537.5 121.8 4.8 -0.8 0.4 -20.1 -18.6 -0.2 0.4 -9.4 -9.3 2,264.5 8.6 179.3 139.8 16.8 44.7 27.3 35.4 92.2 273.1 10.9 66.3 48.3 109.1 44.8 319.6 34.7 214.6 28.6 41.4 156.2 88.5 51.1 322.0 162.9 40.1 2,293.2 8.5 180.7 139.3 16.7 44.3 27.4 35.4 92.3 274.1 10.9 66.2 48.2 108.6 45.0 322.8 34.5 214.9 28.9 41.9 156.9 88.7 51.2 344.2 186.1 40.0 2,317.0 8.5 182.4 138.9 16.7 44.1 27.4 35.2 92.7 278.4 10.9 67.5 48.3 108.7 45.1 325.3 35.6 216.3 29.6 42.3 159.3 88.8 50.9 352.3 193.5 40.1 2,336.6 8.5 183.9 139.0 16.6 44.2 27.4 35.4 93.4 289.4 11.0 67.5 48.5 109.4 45.4 324.5 35.9 217.5 29.9 42.9 161.8 89.0 50.6 353.1 195.0 40.8 2,345.5 8.5 182.6 139.2 16.7 44.2 27.3 35.5 94.3 294.5 10.9 67.7 48.9 110.2 45.9 325.2 35.2 218.1 29.8 43.2 162.2 89.3 52.0 352.3 194.0 41.1 2.0 -1.2 4.8 -2.6 -2.3 -5.8 -1.4 -2.2 -0.1 2.0 0.0 2.1 -2.2 1.6 3.1 3.6 5.7 5.0 0.0 3.1 2.5 4.3 0.8 0.4 1.4 3.0 1.0 -4.3 3.2 -5.5 -2.8 -8.5 -4.2 -0.9 -0.7 1.8 -2.7 2.8 -5.3 -0.7 1.7 1.1 6.9 5.6 1.6 -0.2 1.4 2.5 2.8 0.1 1.5 0.6 15.36 14.54 13.45 11.43 17.19 15.36 14.44 13.64 11.57 17.32 15.26 14.42 13.60 11.48 17.63 15.26 14.51 13.93 11.71 18.11 15.53 14.60 14.08 12.06 17.89 4.8 0.7 7.6 8.5 8.4 5.4 1.7 3.2 2.7 7.1 5,015,818 3,376,933 628,819 532,600 477,466 222,855 675,183 232,543 49,235 227,868 1,068,359 34,345 106,056 4,862,407 3,263,372 651,553 558,893 388,589 209,753 674,521 224,631 45,401 260,303 1,111,853 36,532 114,166 4,885,964 3,269,920 679,814 565,354 370,876 225,937 569,056 229,856 66,464 271,289 1,138,139 39,652 146,142 5,043,053 3,448,912 691,763 593,664 308,714 197,387 428,186 230,888 76,552 258,508 1,012,599 35,961 153,754 ... ... ... ... 336,292 224,016 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7.5 7.1 8.0 10.1 12.3 -2.4 4.7 -7.0 11.8 -4.6 6.9 -38.0 19.5 6.5 4.8 5.3 5.2 29.1 -0.8 2.8 -1.7 0.7 -6.7 5.4 29.2 4.3 5,994 5,669 99 226 6,497 5,633 96 768 6,797 5,479 366 952 5,241 4,267 84 890 6,706 5,742 116 848 31.9 54.3 41.5 -33.9 12.2 15.5 28.7 -12.9 2,667 2,180 19 467 2,580 2,042 28 510 2,773 2,257 17 499 2,206 1,745 16 445 2,252 1,780 22 450 0.8 2.9 57.1 -8.2 7.4 8.4 -2.3 3.8 See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16. PAGE 18 ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers U.S. - Urban Wage Earners Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures I N D I C A T O R S I 2003 II 2003 III 2003 185.7 181.2 177.2 188.0 183.0 179.1 188.5 183.7 179.6 189.1 184.6 180.3 188.7 184.6 180.3 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 111.3 111.9 111.9 112.6 112.2 112.8 112.6 113.5 113.1 114.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 CHANGE OF ADDRESS Attach old label or fill in old address in shaded box below. 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