ARIZONA'S ECONOMY
J A N U A R Y

2 0 0 4

W I N T E R

BUCKLE YOUR
SEAT BELTS . . .
PREPARE FOR
TAKEOFF
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
November 19, 2003

O

ld story line: “we’re growing,
but where are the jobs?”
Strong growth during the
summer quarter marks the end of the
“jobless recovery” and the beginning
of a “virtuous cycle.” What’s developing is reminiscent of the 1993-94
period, which brought significant
acceleration in economic growth and
above trend growth for the remainder
of the decade. We don’t expect anything remotely resembling the hightech-investment-spurred bubble of the
late 1990s, but surprises are likely to
be on the upside going forward.
Finally, the story line is changing. The
U.S. economy just posted its strongest
growth of real GDP since 1984, a 7.2%

surge during the third quarter. That’s on
the back of a very respectable 3.3% gain
during the second quarter, which was
widely dismissed because of the “jobless”
storyline. Until the third quarter, surging
federal government spending and
consumers kept the economy moving
forward. During the summer, growth
became more balanced as businesses
boosted spending, led by double-digit
increases in computer equipment and
software. Exports also moved higher in
response to rebounding economies among
our trading partners. With inventories near
record lows, businesses are boosting
production to restock inventories, and that
will soon require additional workers.
It is not surprising that the economy is
improving. A year ago, we forecast that the
economy would accelerate significantly,
once uncertainties concerning the war with
Iraq were resolved. We noted that the
economic fundamentals were the best since
September 11, 2001, and that the only
things holding the economy back were
uncertainty and the reluctance of business
executives to move forward.
Reluctance subsided during the second
quarter, evidenced by a jump in business
confidence as measured by the Arizona
Business Leaders Confidence Index®.
Conducted during early June, nearly 70%
of Arizona business leaders expected
improvement in the state and national
economy during the third quarter. Twothirds expected improvement in sales,
nearly half were set to boost capital

I N S I D E
ARIZONA GROWING FAST.....5
FORECAST TABLES ................7
HONORS FOR
STATISTICAL ABSTRACT..........8
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........9

I S S U E

spending, and 35% were to add workers
during the summer quarter. The BLCI
survey is conducted quarterly and is an
initiative of Compass Bank and the
University of Arizona’s Eller College of
Business and Public Administration.
What will the new story line be? Concerns
over outsized federal deficits and higher
interest rates are likely headline grabbers.
Other topics may (should) include the
looming disasters in Medicare/Medicaid
and Social Security funding, as well as a
prescription drug program for seniors. A
year or so down the road, we can expect the
return of stories about the shortage of
skilled workers!

KEY ISSUES AFFECTING THE
OUTLOOK
Consumer spending. Resilience of
consumers during the past three years is
unprecedented. Usually during recessions,
consumers take a break to pay down debt,
and spending falls. This cycle, consumers
were buoyed by low and falling interest
rates, which allowed them to refinance
mortgages and lower their monthly
mortgage payments. In the process, many
pulled cash out of their homes. New home
equity loans, cash from home sales and
mortgage refinancing provided some $600
billion of cash to households during 2003!
Another huge factor is the federal tax cuts
of 2001 and 2003. Recent tax rebate checks
for taxpayers with children and reduced
withholding were sizable. Exhibit 1 shows
the effects of recent cuts on disposable
income, which is computed as total personal
income less all tax and non-tax payments.
This includes both federal and state & local
taxes as well as various fees. The ratio of
disposable to total income has risen nearly
five full percentage points since 2001, to over
88%. The size of the boost to disposable
income is unpre-cedented. It’s interesting to
note that Arizona taxpayers keep a larger
portion of their income, reflecting the fact
that Arizona is a low tax state.

ELLE R COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

T UCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 1
Federal Tax Cuts Are Huge

EXHIBIT 2
Consumers Have Kept Spending

Disposable Income as a % of Total Personal Income

Real Retail Sales, AZ (1996 dollars, annual rate)

High-income individuals may be surprised
that tax and non-tax payments take only 1215% of income. This reflects an average tax
rate, not the marginal rate on the top
income bracket. Moreover, personal
income and taxable income are two very
different measures. Personal income
includes a number of income sources that
are not taxed, such as employer-provided

THE INFUSION OF CASH
FROM HOUSING, TAX CUTS,
AND REBOUNDING STOCK
PRICES HAS PROVIDED
THE MEANS FOR
CONSUMERS
TO BUY NEW CARS,
HOME FURNISHINGS AND
APPLIANCES, ALONG WITH
OTHER CONSUMER
GOODS AND SERVICES.

PAGE 2

health care benefits, federal transfers to
individuals, etc.
Finally, rising housing prices provided
a buffer from losses that households
suffered as the stock market retreated.
Since early 2003, stock prices have moved
up sharply, thereby restoring a portion of
those losses and significantly boosting
household net worth.
The infusion of cash from housing, tax
cuts, and rebounding stock prices has
provided the means for consumers to buy
new cars, home furnishings and appliances,
along with other consumer goods and
services. These cash infusions kept
consumer spending at lofty levels during the
recession, as shown in Exhibit 2.
The downside is, consumers have taken
on record levels of debt in the process.
Recent revisions to consumer debt data from
the Federal Reserve shows that household
finances have deteriorated much more than
previously believed. Their new “debt service
ratio” is based on consumer surveys, and
shows the minimum required payments on
all forms of consumer debt. This new
measure is significantly higher that the
previous peak set nearly twenty years ago
(rather than remaining below the peak as
suggested by the old measure).
Sources of new cash supporting consumer
spending are drying up. As the economy

strengthened in recent months and interest
rates rose, mortgage refinancing all but
disappeared and housing price increases are
moderating. With debt service at record
levels, bank-lending standards likely will
tighten. And, more tax cuts in the face of
huge federal deficits are not likely.
This means that consumer spending will
no longer be driven by these transitory
sources, but rather by gains in labor markets
and by wage increases. Here, the outlook is
quite positive. Company profits are soaring
due to relentless cost cutting, a modest
return of pricing power, and strong
productivity gains. As competition for
workers intensifies in coming months,
companies will boost wages and bring back
incentive forms of compensation such as
stock options and bonuses. Compensation
will continue to grow more rapidly than
inflation, and the gain in real incomes will
drive spending.
Our forecast for Arizona retail sales calls
for a gain of 7.5% in each of the next two
years, following an increase of almost five
percent in 2003. That is a significant
improvement over the past few years but
modest compared to the 12.5% increase
during 1994. (See forecast table on page 7).
Productivity is the hero, not the villain.
During the second and third quarters, the
economy grew rapidly, yet payrolls
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 3
Real Wages Will Jump in 2004

EXHIBIT 4
Manufacturing’s Losses Will Reverse

Average Wages Per Employee, AZ (Private Sectors)

Manufacturing Employment, AZ (seasonally adjusted)

continued to fall. Businesses were able to
boost output without new employees
because productivity jumped at a monstrous
7.5% annual rate both quarters. The longrun trend in productivity is now three
percent, which means that output must grow
at a rate exceeding three percent before
additional workers are needed. Are we
caught in a productivity trap that will
continue to rob job growth and hold the
expansion back, as some analysts argue?
The answer is no.
So far, productivity gains have showed up
in corporate profits, which soared by nearly
30% during the summer quarter just ended.
That means companies are able to afford
to grant workers real wage increases.
Real compensation for those who continue
to have jobs rose by two percent last year, a
major factor underlying the strength in
consumer spending. In 2004, more of the
income gains from faster economic growth
will flow to workers. More income means
more demand, which begets more
production and profits, which in turn means
more income and more jobs. Thus, a
virtuous cycle is set in motion.
The coming year will see the benefits of
productivity lift demand across the economy,
and both businesses and consumers will
benefit. More jobs and higher wages are the
key results. Private-sector wage gains in
Arizona are forecast to increase by 4.5% (or
AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

3% in inflation-adjusted terms) in 2004
(Exhibit 3). That’s the strongest increase
since the turbo-charged technology boom of
the late 1990s.

WHERE WILL THE JOBS BE?
Nowhere are the gains in productivity and
outsourcing more visible than in
manufacturing. Nationwide, manufacturing
has shed some 1.2 million jobs since the end
of the recession in November 2001. In
Arizona, losses since January 2001 total
more than 37,000 jobs, or 18% of
manufacturing payrolls. Fortunately, that
trend is about to reverse, at least
temporarily. Orders and production as
measured by the Institute of Supply
Management have soared in recent months
to the highest readings in over a decade, and
that means renewed hiring in the immediate
future. We don’t expect manufacturing
payrolls to soar, or even regain the numbers
that were lost in the last three years. But the
decline will come to an end and
manufacturing will no longer be a drag on
employment growth (Exhibit 4).
Arizona has been fortunate in that it has
been able to grow its manufacturing sector
over the past four decades, even as the
number of manufacturing jobs nationwide
declined. Recent trends in productivity and
outsourcing mean that manufacturing is a lot

like agriculture. At the beginning of the
20th century, most workers lived on farms.
By 1969, that had fallen to only 4.5%.
Today, less than two percent of the nation’s
workforce supplies food for the entire nation
and foreign countries alike. This is possible
due to great productivity gains in farming.
This has major implications for the state’s
economic development strategy. Clearly, the
focus must be on developing “new
economy” industries that may, or may not,
be manufacturing-oriented.
Most job creation in 2004 will be in
sectors that serve an ever-growing Arizona
population. Education & health services will
add over 13,000 jobs. Retail trade will add
over 11,000. Financial activities will add
over 10,000. Construction will add more
than 8,000.

OUR FORECAST
NOW CALLS
FOR THE STRONGEST
GROWTH
IN FIVE YEARS.

PAGE 3

EXHIBIT 5
Job Growth Mirrors Ten Years Ago
Annual Change in Population & Jobs, AZ

But, the largest number of new jobs will
be Professional & Business Services, which
is expected to add over 16,000 new jobs
statewide, or one of every six new hires.
Included are legal advice and representation; accounting, bookkeeping, and payroll
services; architectural, engineering, and
specialized design services; computer
services; consulting services; research
services; advertising services; photographic
services; translation and interpretation
services; veterinary services; and other
professional, scientific, and technical
services. A large portion of outsourcing is
provided by this category. As this sector was

AS THE EXPANSION
ACCELERATES,
THE ANNUAL FLOW
OF NEW RESIDENTS
WILL RISE TO
RECORD LEVELS OF
180,000 TO 190,000
PER YEAR BY 2005.

PAGE 4

hard hit during the recession, it stands to
gain the most as the economy expands.
Natural resources & mining, utilities,
information, and state & local government
(excluding education) will each record little
if any growth next year. The information
sector totals only 50,000 jobs, so even as
it reverses course in 2004 and begins
adding jobs, the numbers will be small.
Budget constraints will ease for state &
local governments, but the increased flow
of tax dollars lags behind the economy, so
it will be 2005 before increased services
can be provided.
Our forecast now calls for the strongest
growth in five years – over 90,000 new jobs
created statewide during 2004 (a 4% gain).
More balanced growth across industries will
boost the number of new jobs to nearly
112,000 in 2005, a 4.6% gain. As shown in
Exhibit 5, job creation, in sheer numbers,
will surpass the gains registered during the
mid-1990s. (Exhibit 5)

POPULATION GROWTH
CONTINUES
Arizona continued to experience rapid
population growth during the past few years.
A number of possible explanations including
the fact that the recession of 2001 was short

and mild. Housing markets continued
functioning, which allowed households to
remain mobile. Terrorist attacks provided
additional motivation for big-city dwellers to
relocate to low-density communities of the
southwest. There is an ever-expanding pool
of retirees who continue to view Arizona as
their destination of choice. Perhaps it is the
flow of Californians who are leaving for
greener pastures of the southwest and Rocky
Mountain States.
Whatever the myriad of possible
explanations, Arizona’s population growth
remains at high levels, and slowed only
modestly during the recent recession.
During the 1990-91 recession, population
growth waned to only 60,000 per year. This
time, it barely dipped below 150,000. As
the expansion accelerates, the annual flow
of new residents will rise to record levels
of 180,000 to 190,000 per year by 2005.
An expanding population will keep
homebuilding near record levels and
construction payrolls growing, even as
interest rates rise. Statewide, roughly
70,000-75,000 new units per year will be
required to house new residents. In the
nonresidential category, new retail space
will continue to be built, while office and
industrial markets will require another
year to absorb excess space before
construction resumes.

METRO OUTLOOK
Metro Phoenix accounts for over threefourths of Arizona’s 175,000 manufacturing
jobs. So, it is not surprising that metro
Phoenix accounted for the lion’s share –
nearly 90% of statewide losses in
manufacturing. Hardest hit was the
computer and electronic sector. We can
expect this sector to stabilize by year-end
and register modest growth in 2004.
Similarly Metro Phoenix accounted for all
the losses in the state’s information sector,
which includes publishing,
telecommunications, and other “New
Economy” activities. This sector lost 12% of
its 55,000-peak employment, and only
recent began to stabilize. We expect a small
gain of a few hundred jobs in 2004 as this
sector begins to recover.
Educational services, which includes
private educational initiatives – public
schools are in government – was the fastest
growing sector in 2003 with an increase in
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

payrolls of nearly 10%. Healthcare and
social assistance added the most — over
9,000 jobs. Both will continue growing
rapidly and lead other sectors higher.
The construction industry added nearly
6,000 workers as residential permits grew
to nearly 50,000 (Maricopa and Pinal
counties combined). Absorption (as
measured by the change in occupied
inventory) has remained high, but additions
to inventory have been greater in each of the
last five years. The result is rising
residential vacancies. Although this casts a
cautionary note on future construction, we
expect faster population growth to justify
keep residential construction growing.
We’re expecting over 51,000 residential
building permits and another 6,000 new
construction jobs in 2004.
As in recent years, look for the metro
Phoenix area to account for the lion’s share
of growth going forward, accounting for
more than seven of ten new jobs and nearly
as many new residents. That’s 66,000 new
jobs and 123,000 new residents in 2004.
By the end of 2004, Phoenix-Mesa metro
population will surpass 3-3/4 million.
The Tucson area suffered job losses over
the past two years in manufacturing,
primarily in aerospace products and parts,
but also in computer and electronic
products. Additional losses will be felt in
early 2004, but by mid-year manufacturing
payrolls will be growing again.
Tucson’s accommodation industry
struggled to regain footing during 2003
and employment levels appeared to stabilize
as the year progressed. This industry will
spring back during 2004, adding roughly
700 workers. Both business and leisure
travel will stage a comeback.
Mining and information industries also
shed workers during the past year but the
numbers are small. Information will grow
once again in 2004. Mining will not.
Metro Tucson (Pima County) accounts
for just over 16% of the state’s residents,
with 910,000 residents. Over the next two
years, population growth will average over
22,000 new residents annually, and by
mid-2007, population will top the one
million mark. Next year, over 13,000 new
jobs will materialize and nearly 17,000 will
be added in 2005. Most of the new jobs
will be, as statewide, in Professional &
Business Services, Retail Trade, and
Leisure & Hospitality.
A R IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY

GROWTH, BUT…
The economy is at the same stage of the
business cycle as ten years ago. Barring
some catastrophic event that sends decision
makers to the sidelines, look for at least 3-4
years of solid expansion.
What remains to be determined is
whether Arizona will be able to identify and
nourish New Economy jobs of the 21st
century, and whether New Economy
companies will find the “quality of place,”
skilled workforce, and well-above-average
public schools that professional workers
require.
We will know soon if the “political will”
exists to modernize the state’s antiquated tax
system that currently favors individuals
(particularly retirees), but places a heavy
burden on businesses. Distrust, disdain,
and outright hatred of government and
taxes, abetted by a super-majority required
to increase taxes, threaten any meaningful
progress. ■

F O R E C A S T I N G
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Department of Commerce
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One
CB Richard Ellis
City of Glendale
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Merrill Lynch
Pascua Yaqui Tribe
Pima Association of Governments
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers

ARIZONA SECOND AMONG THE
10-FASTEST GROWING STATES
(Extracted from the U.S.Census Bureau
press release of December 18, 2003)
The nation’s population grew by 1.0
percent (2.8 million people) between July 1,
2002, and July 1, 2003, to 290.8 million,
according to estimates of the U.S. Census
Bureau.
Among the nation’s 10 fastest-growing
states were four in the Rocky Mountains:
Nevada (ranking first for the 17th
consecutive year with a growth rate of 3.4

percent), Arizona (second with a growth
rate of 2.6 percent), Idaho (fifth) and Utah
(eighth). The remaining top 10 states were
all coastal: Florida (third), Texas (fourth),
Georgia (sixth), Delaware (seventh),
California (ninth) and Hawaii (10th). States
that moved into the top 10 this year were
Delaware, California and Hawaii.
Included with the estimates were
demographic components of change by
state: births, deaths, net internal migration
and net international migration.

Top Ten States Ranked by Percent Change
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

State
Nevada
Arizona
Florida
Texas
Idaho
Georgia
Delaware
Utah
California
Hawaii

% change
2002-2003
3.4
2.6
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4

Increase in the number of persons,
2002-2003
73,699
139,686
327,367
381,584
23,208
140,710
11,546
32,678
482,467
16,945
PAGE 5

2004 Fathauer Lecture in Political Economy:
Sylvia Nasar to speak at the Eller College
Monday, February 16, 2004 5:00 p.m., reception following
McClelland Hall, 1130 E. Helen Street
The University of Arizona
Sylvia Nasar is the author of A Beautiful Mind. Professor Nasar will speak on the
subject of her next book, 20th Century Economic Thinkers: What They Discovered
About the Way the World Works.

Author,
A Beautiful Mind
Economist

Journalist
Professor,
Columbia University

About Sylvia Nasar
Sylvia Nasar is author of the award-winning New York Times bestseller, A Beautiful Mind, the remarkable story of
Nobel Laureate John Nash who transformed modern economics. Her book attracted national attention as the basis
for the box-office blockbuster movie directed by Ron Howard and starring Russell Crowe. Nasar is now the Knight
Chair in business journalism at Columbia University. Prior to her 2001 appointment, Nasar was economics reporter
at the New York Times, a writer at Fortune and a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. She studied literature at
Antioch College and earned her master’s degree in economics at New York University, where for four years, she
conducted research with Nobel Laureate Wassily Leontief at the Institute for Economic Analysis.
About the Fathauer Lecture in Political Economy
Established in 1982 and generously endowed in 1996 by Isabel and Walter Fathauer, this Lecture brings internationally known scholars to the Eller College of Business and Public Administration at the University of Arizona. More
than 200 business and community leaders, students, and other community members attend the free public event
each year.

The lecture is free. Please RSVP by contacting Mary Hanson by e-mail at
mhanson@eller.arizona.edu or call 520.621.9954.
PAGE 6

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change
Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Wage per Employee
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Residential Permits
percent change
Non Farm Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
percent change
Prof. & Business Services
percent change
Leisure & Hospitality
percent change
Government
percent change

T A B L E S

2002
142,642.0
3.9
35,357
1.8
56,192.9
1.4
5,472.8
2.9
63,083
12.5
2,265.5
0.0
365.7
-5.0
1,899.9
1.1
442.0
0.3
312.4
-2.4
229.9
0.0
388.3
2.8

2003
150,698.3
5.6
36,391
2.9
59,945.1
6.7
5,635.0
3.0
65,447
3.7
2,316.7
2.3
365.1
-0.2
1,951.8
2.7
453.9
2.7
322.7
3.3
237.2
3.2
392.2
1.0

2004
161,924.8
7.4
37,864
4.0
64,045.9
6.8
5,813.6
3.2
68,950
5.4
2,407.9
3.9
377.7
3.5
2,030.2
4.0
473.3
4.3
338.9
5.0
246.1
3.8
398.6
1.6

2005
173,670.0
7.3
39,193
3.5
68,417.2
6.8
5,999.1
3.2
73,050
5.9
2,519.6
4.6
392.6
3.9
2,127.1
4.8
496.5
4.9
366.0
8.0
254.8
3.5
408.7
2.5

2006
186,342.9
7.3
40,571
3.5
72,514.6
6.0
6,186.9
3.1
72,277
-1.1
2,616.6
3.9
403.5
2.8
2,213.2
4.0
514.1
3.5
387.1
5.8
262.7
3.1
419.6
2.7

2007
199,547.8
7.1
41,994
3.5
76,571.1
5.6
6,366.9
2.9
70,730
-2.1
2,708.0
3.5
411.1
1.9
2,297.0
3.8
531.2
3.3
408.4
5.5
270.0
2.8
427.3
1.8

2008
213,069.9
6.8
43,476
3.5
80,499.8
5.1
6,542.2
2.8
69,075
-2.3
2,791.4
3.1
416.3
1.3
2,375.2
3.4
544.8
2.6
425.4
4.1
276.0
2.2
434.2
1.6

99,242.6
3.3
37,215
1.9
38,114.2
0.6
3,488.6
3.2
47,899
3.9
1,599.2
0.1
270.5
-4.7
1,328.8
1.1
326.7
0.7
254.0
-2.1
152.4
-0.1
211.6
4.0

104,536.2
5.3
38,229
2.7
41,060.5
7.7
3,601.6
3.2
49,326
3.0
1,638.5
2.5
270.4
0.0
1,368.1
3.0
334.3
2.3
262.0
3.1
155.7
2.2
214.7
1.5

112,149.0
7.3
39,813
4.1
43,162.4
5.1
3,724.5
3.4
51,152
3.7
1,704.7
4.0
280.6
3.8
1,424.1
4.1
346.1
3.5
274.7
4.9
161.8
3.9
219.8
2.4

120,199.5
7.2
41,308
3.8
45,963.9
6.5
3,848.6
3.3
52,103
1.9
1,783.2
4.6
293.1
4.5
1,490.1
4.6
362.4
4.7
291.5
6.1
168.6
4.2
225.9
2.8

129,502.5
7.7
42,946
4.0
48,893.9
6.4
3,977.2
3.3
54,037
3.7
1,856.5
4.1
301.7
2.9
1,554.8
4.3
377.0
4.0
308.7
5.9
174.5
3.5
232.2
2.8

139,066.7
7.4
44,600
3.9
51,653.1
5.6
4,102.7
3.2
52,927
-2.1
1,926.7
3.8
310.1
2.8
1,616.6
4.0
390.3
3.5
324.7
5.2
180.0
3.2
236.6
1.9

148,692.2
6.9
46,306
3.8
54,331.8
5.2
4,223.9
3.0
51,296
-3.1
1,989.3
3.3
315.2
1.6
1,674.1
3.6
400.6
2.7
337.9
4.1
184.0
2.2
240.6
1.7

22,331.8
4.4
30,535
1.6
8,707.2
0.6
890.5
2.3
7,999
-1.9
347.7
0.1
56.3
-2.1
300.5
3.6
55.8
0.9
40.3
-2.5
38.0
-0.5
77.7
1.1

23,368.8
4.6
31,519
3.2
9,313.9
7.0
910.8
2.3
8,315
4.0
353.1
1.5
55.5
-1.5
306.8
2.1
57.3
2.7
41.2
2.3
38.9
2.3
78.8
1.4

24,936.8
6.7
32,686
3.7
9,836.5
5.6
932.7
2.4
8,676
4.3
366.6
3.8
56.4
1.7
319.3
4.1
59.9
4.5
43.7
6.1
42.0
8.1
80.7
2.5

26,621.0
6.8
33,795
3.4
10,327.8
5.0
955.1
2.4
8,631
-0.5
383.3
4.5
58.2
3.3
334.3
4.7
62.1
3.7
47.9
9.6
44.8
6.6
83.2
3.0

28,671.0
7.7
34,971
3.5
10,900.5
5.5
979.4
2.5
8,906
3.2
400.6
4.5
60.4
3.6
349.5
4.6
64.6
3.9
52.2
8.9
47.3
5.6
85.9
3.3

30,953.0
8.0
36,176
3.4
11,526.4
5.7
1,005.3
2.6
9,172
3.0
420.0
4.8
63.2
4.7
366.2
4.8
67.3
4.2
56.7
8.7
49.9
5.6
89.0
3.6

33,313.1
7.6
37,440
3.5
12,159.5
5.5
1,032.0
2.7
9,301
1.4
438.6
4.4
65.7
3.9
382.5
4.4
70.0
4.0
60.6
6.8
52.8
5.8
92.1
3.5

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 7

2003 ARIZONA
STATISTICAL
ABSTRACT
RECEIVES
NATIONAL
HONORS
In October 2003, the 2003 Arizona
Statistical Abstract received the Award of
Excellence in Publications from the
Association for University Business and
Economic Research (AUBER). EBR
researchers Pia Montoya and Valorie Rice
compiled the newest edition with help from
a number of students. Building on 2000
census data, the 700-page book is a comprehensive reference source of statistics
about the state of Arizona and its political
subdivisions. The Abstract’s purpose is to
develop and disseminate Arizona economic
and socioeconomic data in quantitative
terms over time; to permit comparison of
the economic and social attainments of
cities, counties and metropolitan areas; and
to relate Arizona’s activities to those of
neighboring southwestern states and the
nation as a whole.
Reviewing the book in the Arizona
Republic (“State Stats Unplugged” August
12), Jonathan J. Higuera wrote, “Ever wonder how many votes Bruce Babbitt got in the
1978 gubernatorial race? How much of
Arizona’s land is privately owned? How
many prisoners the Arizona Department of
Corrections housed in 2001? The answers to
these and many other economic and social
measures are found in the Abstract.” “It’s a
good foundation for understanding what is
happening in our state,” said Bob Bulla,
Chairman of Blue Cross/Blue Shield of
Arizona, who has used every edition of the
book, first published in 1976, to help him
make decisions. “Every community, every
state should have its Bible, so to speak,” he
continued. “This reference document is one
of them.”

Order the Award-winning

2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract

T

he authoritative source for economic and
social information for Arizona and its
political subdivisions, the 2003 Arizona
Statistical Abstract includes data on physical
resources of the state, human resources (such
as population, vital statistics, health, education,
employment and welfare), public sector activities,
and various economic measures such as output,
sales, jobs, etc. Included are statistics from
numerous sources such as the 2000 Census of
Population and Housing, Economic Censuses,
Annual Survey of Manufacturers, and County
Business Patterns, to name a few. Data are
presented by jurisdiction as well as
comparisons to other states. The presentation
is both comprehensive and concise.
The 2003 edition of the Arizona Statistical
Abstract is now available. Order your copy
now by filling out the form below and return
it by mail with a check payable to Economic
and Business Research.

ORDER FORM
Mail to: Economic and Business Research
Eller College of Business and Public Administration
McClelland Hall 103
$54.95 each (includes $5.00 shipping and handling)
The University of Arizona
$70.00 each international order (includes S&H)
P.O. Box 210108
❑ check enclosed ❑ send invoice
Tucson, AZ 85721-0108
All orders must be prepaid prior to shipment.

I would like ____ copies of the
2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract at

AE 1/04

Fax to: (520) 621-2150

Name__________________________________________________________________
Title___________________________________________________________________
Organization _____________________________________________________________
Address ________________________________________________________________
City _____________________________ State_____________ Zip ________________
Telephone_________________________ Fax__________________________________
E-mail _________________________________________________________________

PAGE 8

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

APACHE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
NAVAJO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

22,375
18,425
3,950
17.7

21,875
17,725
4,150
19.0

21,925
18,500
3,425
15.6

21,150
18,425
2,725
12.9

20,825
18,200
2,625
12.6

-2.2
-2.8
1.9
4.3

-0.0
-1.7
11.6
11.8

18,800
6,425
750
18,050
1,500
4,175
12,375
2,975
9,400

17,925
6,250
725
17,200
1,500
4,025
11,675
2,500
9,175

18,825
6,450
700
18,125
1,550
4,200
12,375
2,825
9,550

19,000
6,350
675
18,325
1,525
4,150
12,650
2,825
9,825

18,875
6,225
650
18,225
1,475
4,100
12,650
2,750
9,900

-1.8
-5.3
-13.3
-1.4
-15.7
0.6
0.0
-1.8
0.5

-1.3
-4.9
-2.3
-1.2
-8.9
-3.7
0.6
-1.3
1.2

11,584
6,042
966
4,576
2,761
7,637
1,230

11,031
5,781
901
4,349
2,835
10,885
1,285

11,641
4,692
1,103
5,846
2,728
3,939
1,549

10,973
5,221
959
4,793
2,587
7,008
895

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.0
-4.0
-1.7
34.4
0.5
10.5
-15.6

9.2
-0.7
0.5
24.8
-2.6
4.6
5.1

9
9

7
7

8
8

9
9

...
...

80.0
80.0

11.3
11.3

35,725
31,075
4,650
13.0

35,725
30,725
5,000
14.0

35,400
31,050
4,350
12.3

34,825
31,175
3,650
10.5

34,275
30,900
3,375
9.8

0.0
-0.6
5.5
5.5

-0.3
-1.0
5.6
6.0

27,375
17,125
3,325
975
1,500
850
24,050
5,600
575
625
850
2,375
3,000
775
10,250
1,600
8,650

26,775
17,025
3,325
975
1,525
825
23,450
5,525
600
600
850
2,325
3,025
775
9,750
1,400
8,350

27,225
17,250
3,350
1,000
1,525
825
23,875
5,525
600
625
825
2,475
3,075
775
9,975
1,525
8,450

27,625
17,125
3,275
1,000
1,475
800
24,350
5,500
600
650
825
2,525
3,000
750
10,500
1,525
8,975

27,625
17,075
3,375
1,025
1,525
825
24,250
5,525
600
625
825
2,600
2,775
750
10,550
1,425
9,125

0.4
2.6
3.1
7.9
1.7
0.0
0.0
3.3
14.3
4.2
-2.9
4.0
-0.9
0.0
-3.0
-5.0
-2.7

-0.7
1.0
-2.8
-2.2
-4.9
0.5
-0.4
4.8
7.1
-1.3
6.1
-2.1
0.8
-4.2
-3.2
-9.4
-2.2

70,639
53,617
6,845
10,177
6,140
14,948
3,045

70,294
53,082
7,447
9,765
6,365
13,081
3,326

74,116
54,693
6,663
12,760
5,956
13,880
2,749

69,065
51,795
7,124
10,146
5,476
14,876
2,814

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.9
3.9
16.4
47.0
9.9
20.4
21.6

6.3
1.5
3.8
48.7
15.0
6.3
5.8

40
40

42
42

36
36

38
38

...
...

2.7
2.7

-11.9
-9.8

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 9

A R I Z O N A

GRAHAM COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting

COCONINO COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

10,100
9,300
800
7.9

10,350
9,475
875
8.5

10,475
9,650
825
7.9

10,575
9,825
750
7.1

10,525
9,850
675
6.4

-4.1
-2.2
-25.0
-21.8

-7.9
-7.6
-11.4
-3.9

6,300
4,350
450
5,850
1,500
2,400
1,950
375
1,575

6,325
4,250
425
5,900
1,475
2,350
2,075
350
1,725

6,500
4,250
400
6,100
1,500
2,350
2,250
375
1,875

6,650
4,225
400
6,250
1,500
2,325
2,425
350
2,075

6,675
4,225
400
6,275
1,500
2,325
2,450
350
2,100

2.3
-1.7
-11.1
3.3
1.7
-2.1
10.1
0.0
12.0

-6.9
-2.6
-6.5
-6.9
2.0
-4.6
-14.2
-0.6
-16.2

14,440
11,723
1,439
1,278
771
3,713

13,812
11,362
1,212
1,238
807
2,531

14,894
11,798
1,425
1,671
780
2,455

13,533
11,018
996
1,519
820
2,951

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.3
11.7
-13.4
11.8
-16.4
-8.9

5.7
3.9
1.3
27.6
-0.5
-6.8

68,450
63,450
5,000
7.3

69,450
64,025
5,425
7.8

68,625
64,025
4,600
6.7

67,350
63,350
4,000
5.9

65,900
62,275
3,625
5.5

-1.3
-1.7
7.4
8.8

-1.6
-2.3
9.3
10.9

58,175
40,225
5,575
125
2,250
3,200
52,600
9,725
425
1,425
2,625
6,675
11,950
1,825
17,950
3,600
14,350

58,225
40,650
5,575
125
2,275
3,175
52,650
9,825
425
1,425
2,650
6,775
12,125
1,850
17,575
3,325
14,250

58,600
40,375
5,525
125
2,250
3,150
53,075
9,750
425
1,400
2,750
6,825
11,875
1,825
18,225
3,450
14,775

58,975
39,650
5,525
125
2,250
3,150
53,450
9,850
425
1,400
2,675
6,875
11,075
1,825
19,325
3,450
15,875

58,600
39,725
5,600
125
2,300
3,175
53,000
9,950
400
1,325
2,700
6,950
11,000
1,800
18,875
3,150
15,725

-1.1
-0.3
-2.6
0.0
-7.1
0.8
-1.0
-0.5
-15.8
-8.6
-0.9
5.7
-0.2
-2.7
-2.8
-10.0
-1.3

-2.1
1.4
-2.7
-4.8
-16.1
9.6
-2.0
4.1
-12.1
-4.1
-1.5
3.3
1.5
6.0
-8.8
-6.4
-9.3

125,362
83,742
25,426
16,194
9,771
27,336
20,539

125,983
83,273
26,001
16,709
10,891
27,017
21,595

131,933
84,310
25,347
22,276
10,397
29,130
19,371

111,481
71,512
23,500
16,469
8,889
33,782
18,307

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.6
-7.8
1.7
1.3
-24.2
22.5
4.3

0.7
-0.5
2.7
3.6
-18.5
9.6
4.4

104
70

114
83

60
60

330
78

...
...

292.9
-1.3

38.8
-1.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 1 0

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GREENLEE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel*

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

OCT
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

3,900
3,600
300
7.7

3,925
3,600
325
8.3

3,900
3,600
300
7.7

3,800
3,525
275
7.2

3,700
3,450
250
6.8

-8.6
-7.4
-23.1
-15.8

-5.4
-3.5
-23.6
-19.2

3,575
3,050
2,400
1,175
275
375
525
50
475

3,550
3,025
2,375
1,175
275
375
525
50
475

3,550
3,025
2,375
1,175
250
400
525
50
475

3,550
3,000
2,375
1,175
250
375
550
50
500

3,500
2,950
2,350
1,150
250
350
550
50
500

-5.4
-6.3
-6.0
-4.2
-9.1
-6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0

-2.6
-2.8
-3.3
-1.1
-3.0
0.6
-1.2
11.1
-2.1

5,879
5,414
222
243
146
1,626
421

6,104
5,546
231
327
213
738
306

6,074
5,454
199
421
197
600
516

5,991
5,391
183
417
225
707
313

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

4.7
2.8
-10.3
51.0
12.8
-80.2
-26.0

26.7
29.2
-14.0
21.5
-6.6
23.6
-15.6

82,575
79,800
2,775
3.4

82,775
79,875
2,900
3.5

83,175
80,450
2,725
3.3

82,200
79,550
2,650
3.2

81,975
79,450
2,525
3.1

0.5
0.8
-8.2
-8.6

2.9
3.2
-5.8
-8.5

54,050
44,150
9,675
875
5,600
3,200
44,375
10,225
675
1,850
4,975
7,550
7,525
1,675
9,900
1,300
8,600

53,450
44,175
9,775
875
5,675
3,225
43,675
10,200
650
1,900
4,900
7,625
7,550
1,575
9,275
1,300
7,975

54,275
44,225
9,875
875
5,825
3,175
44,400
10,150
675
1,875
4,950
7,675
7,450
1,575
10,050
1,300
8,750

54,500
43,725
9,675
875
5,700
3,100
44,825
10,175
675
1,875
4,750
7,650
7,350
1,575
10,775
1,275
9,500

54,850
44,000
9,725
900
5,750
3,075
45,125
10,350
675
1,850
4,675
7,850
7,375
1,500
10,850
1,275
9,575

1.8
1.9
-0.3
2.9
3.1
-6.8
2.3
2.2
0.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.1
-10.4
1.6
2.0
1.6

3.0
3.5
0.9
-5.9
2.1
0.9
3.5
2.2
6.5
5.1
12.4
3.0
5.8
-7.1
1.1
5.5
0.5

133,720
103,573
17,658
12,489
7,535
44,656
7,019

129,850
100,282
18,125
11,443
7,459
45,393
6,361

136,930
101,406
17,967
17,557
8,194
59,911
6,745

129,612
99,497
17,209
12,906
6,966
43,319
6,483

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.9
15.6
6.3
34.4
0.5
18.4
9.8

8.2
7.2
2.8
27.8
-3.1
14.6
-1.1

256
238

247
233

219
209

208
189

...
...

-16.1
11.2

-1.7
7.9

* Includes Graham County data.
YAVAPAI COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 1 1

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

MOHAVE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

18,025
16,525
1,500
8.3

18,250
16,700
1,550
8.5

18,475
16,950
1,525
8.3

18,200
16,775
1,425
7.8

18,150
16,825
1,325
7.3

-0.5
-0.3
-3.6
-3.1

-4.7
-5.1
-0.8
4.2

13,125
8,650
1,975
11,150
1,975
4,700
4,475
550
3,925

13,075
8,700
1,950
11,125
1,975
4,775
4,375
500
3,875

13,375
8,725
1,925
11,450
2,000
4,800
4,650
525
4,125

13,350
8,650
1,900
11,450
2,000
4,750
4,700
525
4,175

13,525
8,900
1,925
11,600
2,050
4,925
4,625
450
4,175

0.2
1.4
-13.5
2.9
-2.4
10.7
-2.1
-10.0
-1.2

-4.9
-5.3
-15.1
-2.8
-7.0
0.6
-4.1
-16.5
-2.4

29,711
21,478
4,348
3,885
2,344
8,897
990

27,878
19,555
4,737
3,586
2,337
7,822
1,283

29,569
19,373
4,361
5,835
2,723
7,370
1,055

28,410
19,604
3,887
4,919
2,655
8,069
943

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

14.1
6.8
4.3
74.5
30.4
-7.0
14.2

5.2
0.8
1.5
42.4
7.8
-2.6
-7.2

75,775
71,975
3,800
5.0

76,575
72,500
4,075
5.3

76,925
72,975
3,950
5.1

76,525
72,875
3,650
4.8

76,250
72,700
3,550
4.7

2.1
3.1
-14.5
-16.3

1.5
2.0
-8.3
-9.5

45,300
37,650
8,625
75
5,475
3,075
36,675
9,775
925
1,575
3,550
5,675
5,275
2,250
7,650
500
7,150

44,850
37,600
8,725
75
5,525
3,125
36,125
9,850
925
1,550
3,475
5,675
5,200
2,200
7,250
500
6,750

45,700
37,775
8,800
75
5,600
3,125
36,900
9,975
900
1,550
3,300
5,775
5,300
2,175
7,925
475
7,450

45,900
37,775
9,000
75
5,750
3,175
36,900
10,000
900
1,575
3,250
5,725
5,175
2,150
8,125
500
7,625

46,150
38,100
9,225
75
5,925
3,225
36,925
10,000
875
1,575
3,300
5,700
5,200
2,225
8,050
475
7,575

2.7
3.0
1.7
0.0
0.4
4.0
3.0
1.5
2.9
-1.6
4.8
3.2
7.8
6.0
1.3
-5.0
1.7

2.4
1.9
-1.4
-16.3
-1.9
-0.0
3.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
6.1
5.8
3.3
6.7
4.9
-4.9
5.7

122,586
94,222
13,130
15,234
9,191
34,539
3,894

126,975
97,188
13,835
15,952
10,398
33,415
4,425

127,554
91,528
13,841
22,185
10,355
34,224
4,171

122,771
93,980
13,485
15,306
8,262
33,444
3,209

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

22.1
23.0
9.0
30.2
-2.7
22.6
8.8

11.8
10.5
4.2
29.9
0.4
4.8
5.3

338
326

301
271

276
250

291
253

...
...

41.3
30.4

29.6
22.6

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 1 2

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

LA PAZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

OCT
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

6,975
6,475
500
7.2

7,150
6,600
550
7.7

6,950
6,450
500
7.2

6,800
6,350
450
6.6

6,725
6,325
400
5.9

-7.2
-7.3
-5.9
1.5

-0.9
-1.9
16.3
17.4

4,975
2,600
350
4,625
1,250
1,000
2,375
175
2,200

5,000
2,550
325
4,675
1,200
1,025
2,450
175
2,275

4,950
2,475
275
4,675
1,200
1,000
2,475
175
2,300

4,825
2,375
225
4,600
1,175
975
2,450
175
2,275

4,775
2,350
225
4,550
1,150
975
2,425
150
2,275

-1.5
-8.7
-30.8
0.6
-8.0
-2.5
6.6
0.0
7.1

-0.3
-5.4
-12.1
0.6
-2.6
-6.5
5.7
9.6
5.4

13,201
7,268
1,849
4,084
2,464
714
500

13,565
7,325
1,990
4,250
2,770
1,656
514

14,796
7,496
1,673
5,627
2,627
1,321
526

11,679
6,257
1,636
3,786
2,044
1,712
452

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

20.3
14.5
15.4
34.1
0.2
17.4
20.2

7.7
0.7
4.0
26.9
-3.3
-30.0
-3.7

75,975
52,350
23,625
31.1

77,575
51,700
25,875
33.4

79,175
52,400
26,775
33.8

75,050
52,925
22,125
29.5

71,375
54,525
16,850
23.6

-7.0
-4.4
-14.6
-8.1

0.8
-0.2
4.0
4.6

41,500
29,000
5,350
25
3,625
1,700
36,150
7,400
1,100
1,350
2,650
5,400
4,350
1,400
12,500
2,725
9,775

40,500
28,700
5,375
25
3,725
1,625
35,125
7,300
1,100
1,350
2,675
5,375
4,150
1,375
11,800
2,725
9,075

41,450
28,825
5,475
25
3,850
1,600
35,975
7,425
1,100
1,350
2,625
5,375
4,075
1,400
12,625
2,675
9,950

41,750
28,950
5,450
25
3,825
1,600
36,300
7,575
1,075
1,350
2,650
5,425
4,025
1,400
12,800
2,675
10,125

43,000
30,000
5,725
25
3,875
1,825
37,275
7,725
1,150
1,425
2,875
5,525
4,150
1,425
13,000
2,625
10,375

-0.1
1.4
8.0
0.0
9.2
5.8
-1.2
-6.9
21.1
14.0
8.5
2.8
-4.6
1.8
-3.3
-3.7
-3.3

1.4
0.5
2.8
0.0
10.1
-9.1
1.2
-4.0
12.4
6.3
-0.4
6.8
-3.3
-1.7
3.6
0.6
4.4

94,080
72,390
10,388
11,302
6,819
22,753
1,618

85,348
64,690
9,423
11,235
7,323
23,978
1,767

97,293
71,974
9,919
15,400
7,188
23,191
2,309

94,029
72,233
9,283
12,513
6,754
25,510
2,594

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.3
6.9
8.0
27.1
-5.0
43.1
40.0

7.7
5.3
6.5
26.2
-2.6
23.3
12.7

181
181

164
164

192
192

140
140

...
...

-21.3
-4.1

26.6
25.7

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 1 3

A R I Z O N A

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Private Service-Providing
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Total Private
Goods-Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service-Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Sales ($000) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

14,475
12,675
1,800
12.4

14,950
12,575
2,375
15.9

15,175
12,525
2,650
17.5

14,975
12,300
2,675
17.9

14,850
12,475
2,375
16.0

-2.3
1.6
-18.8
-16.9

0.1
1.4
-8.2
-7.8

12,275
9,100
1,350
10,925
4,975
2,775
3,175
1,100
2,075

12,075
9,025
1,325
10,750
4,900
2,800
3,050
1,175
1,875

12,075
8,875
1,325
10,750
4,825
2,725
3,200
1,125
2,075

11,950
8,800
1,325
10,625
4,750
2,725
3,150
1,125
2,025

12,200
9,025
1,300
10,900
4,975
2,750
3,175
1,125
2,050

3.8
4.9
-1.9
4.6
11.2
-1.8
0.8
-2.2
2.5

2.2
4.0
-0.3
2.5
8.8
-1.8
-2.8
-0.9
-3.7

30,716
23,874
2,850
3,992
2,408
7,760
666

29,201
22,659
2,740
3,802
2,478
5,884
662

30,529
22,504
3,035
4,990
2,329
4,892
672

26,811
20,286
2,084
4,441
2,397
6,502
637

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.0
4.8
-16.5
62.5
21.5
77.4
-2.0

9.5
5.6
4.3
47.9
12.4
25.9
5.5

38
38

55
53

31
31

50
48

...
...

42.9
108.7

23.9
41.7

46,250
43,600
2,650
5.7

46,050
43,325
2,725
5.9

46,100
43,600
2,500
5.4

45,650
43,425
2,225
4.9

45,625
43,700
1,925
4.2

-2.5
-1.6
-19.8
-17.7

1.6
1.6
0.5
-1.0

33,825
22,675
3,075
50
2,100
925
30,750
5,950
500
875
3,450
3,600
4,075
1,150
11,150
4,600
6,550

33,200
22,450
3,025
50
2,025
950
30,175
6,000
500
850
3,375
3,600
3,975
1,125
10,750
4,625
6,125

33,725
22,625
3,100
50
2,025
1,025
30,625
5,950
500
875
3,400
3,650
4,025
1,125
11,100
4,650
6,450

33,975
22,400
3,075
50
2,000
1,025
30,900
5,975
500
875
3,375
3,600
3,850
1,150
11,575
4,675
6,900

34,375
22,800
3,225
50
2,175
1,000
31,150
6,050
500
875
3,350
3,700
3,950
1,150
11,575
4,550
7,025

0.5
0.8
0.0
100.0
-5.4
11.1
0.6
-2.0
5.3
0.0
-3.6
5.7
5.3
0.0
0.0
1.7
-1.1

2.0
2.5
3.2
41.7
-2.0
15.5
1.9
1.0
2.6
3.0
-0.7
1.6
8.2
1.5
1.1
2.5
0.2

67,808
54,420
8,172
5,216
3,147
17,043
1,734

64,970
53,140
7,893
3,937
2,566
17,946
1,771

72,985
57,463
7,937
7,585
3,540
17,512
2,030

68,704
53,194
7,717
7,793
4,207
18,255
1,916

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

15.1
15.5
7.7
20.6
-9.8
39.3
8.8

6.3
8.0
-3.3
4.5
-18.3
23.4
2.2

68
68

70
70

62
62

66
66

...
...

-1.5
3.1

5.1
5.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 1 4

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements
TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

OCT
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

425.9
406.4
19.5
4.5

424.0
403.0
21.0
4.8

427.7
407.7
20.0
4.6

428.5
410.0
18.5
4.2

429.1
412.3
16.8
3.9

5.7
6.1
-4.0
-4.9

5.4
5.5
2.7
-3.3

343.5
1.4
24.0
29.2
5.6
11.9
7.2
40.7
7.8
7.3
14.8
40.1
45.2
5.5
7.4
24.7
15.1
9.6
63.5
38.9

337.5
1.4
23.7
29.2
5.7
11.9
7.2
40.2
7.7
7.3
14.8
40.0
45.5
5.2
7.3
24.3
14.9
9.5
59.3
34.6

343.3
1.4
23.5
29.1
5.6
11.8
7.2
40.2
7.7
7.2
14.8
40.8
46.1
5.0
7.3
24.7
15.0
9.6
63.7
40.1

350.7
1.4
23.9
29.1
5.7
11.9
7.2
40.0
7.7
7.2
15.0
41.5
46.5
5.3
7.3
25.1
15.1
9.5
68.9
45.7

355.0
1.4
23.8
29.0
5.6
11.8
7.3
40.7
7.6
7.2
15.3
41.8
46.7
5.5
7.5
25.6
15.0
9.5
71.1
47.9

1.5
-6.7
5.8
-3.3
-1.8
-4.1
-1.4
2.0
0.0
-6.5
7.0
-0.7
5.2
0.0
-3.8
4.5
2.7
0.0
1.0
2.4

0.8
-11.5
4.7
-5.4
-3.0
-7.3
-1.5
3.0
-1.6
-5.6
2.8
-1.0
4.0
-0.8
-3.5
2.2
2.7
3.4
0.4
1.3

746,413
513,706
102,981
79,127
50,599
137,597
16,408

713,517
487,389
98,984
78,163
48,981
141,590
14,733

785,899
532,926
99,153
81,868
71,952
152,708
15,321

734,054
488,241
101,787
83,593
60,432
141,121
16,373

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.1
8.7
10.9
3.9
33.4
20.4
3.2

3.6
1.2
7.2
0.8
29.5
8.9
2.8

768
665
103

816
736
80

867
847
20

749
731
18

...
...
...

0.3
48.2
-92.8

8.9
13.8
-18.4

254,199
1,299
195,688

239,870
1,300
184,515

229,975
1,287
178,691

224,634
1,193
188,293

218,531
1,173
186,301

17.9
5.6
11.7

21.4
12.6
7.8

281,737
20,573

286,022
18,454

265,330
17,473

246,490
18,847

288,878
20,106

-1.1
-22.3

1.9
-4.9

III
2002

IV
2002

I
2003

II
2003

III
2003

893.0
1.1
3.1
1.9
3.9

898.1
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.9

903.2
1.2
3.1
1.9
3.9

908.2
1.2
3.1
2.0
3.9

913.3
1.2
3.2
2.0
3.8

2.3
7.5
3.6
1.3
-0.9

2.3
2.9
2.5
2.3
1.5

22,458
13,637
833
111
5,350
4,193
25,148

22,720
13,819
846
113
5,378
4,255
25,298

22,980
14,000
859
115
5,406
4,318
25,444

23,239
14,163
871
117
5,433
4,397
25,587

23,498
14,326
883
118
5,460
4,476
25,729

4.6
5.1
6.0
7.0
2.0
6.8
2.3

4.6
4.3
5.2
5.2
2.0
9.5
2.3

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
A R IZO N A' S E CO N OMY

PAGE 1 5

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

1,794.4
1,699.3
95.1
5.2

1,796.3
1,696.5
99.8
5.4

1,803.4
1,704.6
98.8
5.4

1,791.3
1,699.2
92.1
4.9

1,788.6
1,707.4
81.2
4.4

-0.7
0.6
-21.4
-20.0

0.2
0.6
-7.8
-7.7

1,594.6
2.4
128.5
102.6
12.4
38.5
15.4
27.3
76.8
188.7
7.4
52.4
36.1
95.8
34.5
257.3
23.1
138.6
20.8
25.1
110.1
64.1
21.8
181.2
84.8

1,578.3
2.3
129.4
103.0
12.6
38.4
15.4
27.2
76.4
188.0
7.4
52.6
36.0
96.1
34.8
259.2
23.2
139.2
19.8
24.6
106.8
63.2
21.8
167.3
71.3

1,595.1
2.3
130.2
103.0
12.5
38.3
15.3
27.0
76.4
188.5
7.4
52.7
35.8
95.8
34.6
258.8
25.0
139.9
19.6
24.3
106.2
63.4
21.7
182.5
88.2

1,613.7
2.3
131.2
102.5
12.4
37.9
15.4
27.0
76.3
189.3
7.5
52.7
35.8
95.4
34.7
261.5
24.7
140.0
19.8
25.3
106.5
63.6
21.8
195.8
101.8

1,631.6
2.3
131.8
102.1
12.5
37.7
15.3
27.0
77.3
192.6
7.5
53.3
36.0
95.5
34.9
263.9
25.4
140.7
20.3
25.5
108.4
63.7
21.7
201.7
106.5

1.5
-4.2
3.5
-5.8
-6.0
-8.0
-0.6
-2.9
0.0
0.8
-1.3
2.9
-3.7
-0.4
2.9
2.6
10.4
5.9
0.5
3.7
1.1
4.6
0.9
1.4
3.8

0.9
-2.5
1.9
-7.5
-4.9
-10.9
-0.8
-2.0
-1.2
1.5
-4.4
3.4
-7.4
-1.3
2.5
1.4
9.6
6.0
3.4
1.5
1.2
3.1
5.6
1.5
3.2

3,445,384
2,406,089
433,319
391,629
214,347
780,166
63,658

3,171,749
2,200,024
416,503
350,323
204,899
725,617
49,174

3,369,151
2,311,316
417,211
357,262
283,362
717,226
49,042

3,313,826
2,265,143
428,297
387,237
233,149
774,597
59,230

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.0
7.6
12.8
8.9
35.5
16.7
-0.7

6.2
3.6
9.2
6.1
34.6
-0.0
9.3

5,633
4,482
47
1,104

4,600
4,239
28
333

4,437
4,160
56
221

4,778
4,236
36
506

...
...
...
...

23.7
33.2
71.4
-23.4

16.6
19.2
-2.7
0.7

1,464,303
7,134
205,257

1,473,411
7,341
200,710

1,493,575
7,360
202,931

1,297,492
6,549
198,121

1,833,100
6,216
294,900

82.7
15.0
58.9

33.3
19.1
12.0

3,299,320
44,698

3,438,615
45,560

3,255,811
45,812

2,758,216
43,671

...
...

8.0
-1.3

7.8
2.1

See sources and abbreviations below.
Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE 1 6

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department
of the Interior

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USBCBP: U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

III
2002

IV
2002

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
3,503.2
3,531.2
Natural Increase
8.2
8.2
Births
14.6
14.5
Deaths
6.3
6.4
Net Migration
19.9
19.9
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
99,754
101,160
Earnings by Place of Work
73,878
74,940
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
4,687
4,759
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
-54
-53
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
17,898
18,032
Plus: Transfer Payments
12,719
13,000
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
28,475
28,648
ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income EBR
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR
TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
Recreational Areas, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USBCBP
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

I
2003

II
2003

III
2003

3,559.3
8.1
14.5
6.4
20.0

3,587.5
8.0
14.5
6.5
20.1

3,615.7
8.0
14.5
6.6
20.2

3.2
-3.3
-0.1
3.9
1.6

3.2
-3.2
-0.1
4.1
4.2

102,551
75,989
4,831
-53
18,162
13,283
28,812

103,874
76,951
4,897
-52
18,294
13,579
28,954

105,198
77,912
4,964
-52
18,426
13,875
29,094

5.5
5.5
5.9
4.8
2.9
9.1
2.2

5.0
4.7
5.3
4.1
2.9
10.2
1.7

5,491.2
11.6
22.0
10.4
25.3

5,529.2
11.8
21.9
10.1
27.4

5,570.0
12.1
21.9
9.9
30.2

5,613.1
12.4
22.2
9.8
31.5

5,657.3
12.0
22.2
10.1
32.6

3.0
4.0
0.8
-2.8
29.0

2.9
8.8
1.9
-5.5
13.7

143,584
100,378
6,307
603
27,369
21,546

144,929
101,443
6,378
608
27,253
22,007

147,266
103,312
6,557
616
27,397
22,500

149,101
104,621
6,647
621
27,450
23,061

151,887
106,688
6,790
630
27,868
23,492

5.8
6.3
7.7
4.5
1.8
9.0

5.2
5.4
6.9
10.8
1.5
9.6

80,496
9,324
10,609
446
10,163
26,148
34,870

81,120
9,541
10,964
607
10,357
26,211
35,161

82,500
9,764
11,144
607
10,537
26,439
35,188

83,394
9,865
11,395
577
10,818
26,563
35,416

84,809
10,063
...
...
...
26,848
...

5.4
7.9
10.2
101.7
7.6
2.7
1.9

4.3
9.9
7.3
13.2
7.0
2.2
1.8

JUN
2002

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

2,196,131
156,177
768,363
1,271,591
168,471
21,215
101,220
46,036

2,276,532
155,995
836,502
1,284,035
156,738
20,235
100,460
36,043

2,237,591
146,089
752,325
1,339,177
154,796
20,819
97,192
36,785

1,663,612
136,468
534,291
992,853
125,069
20,051
79,570
25,448

1,559,251
140,411
495,491
923,349
186,224
30,129
127,399
28,696

13.2
6.6
2.9
20.9
11.7
6.8
15.2
2.5

1.4
0.5
3.4
0.4
-4.9
-6.6
-3.5
-9.3

748,492
1,952,487
885,016

722,073
1,512,451
835,486

729,747
2,022,406
...

698,074
1,923,143
...

734,593
2,027,650
...

-12.8
-9.6
-9.5

-5.8
-8.5
3.8

183.7
179.6

183.9
179.6

184.6
180.3

185.2
181.0

185.0
180.7

2.0
1.9

2.3
2.3

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE 1 7

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
Computer and Electronic Prod.
Aerospace Products and Parts
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Federal Government
State and Local Government
State and Local Government Education
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
month
12-months

JUN
2003

JUL
2003

AUG
2003

SEP
2003

OCT
2003

2,680.9
2,514.9
166.0
5.9

2,684.9
2,508.4
176.5
6.1

2,697.5
2,524.6
172.9
6.0

2,676.8
2,519.6
157.2
5.6

2,667.8
2,530.4
137.4
5.0

-0.7
0.4
-17.9
-18.0

0.2
0.5
-5.3
-5.7

2,263.1
8.6
178.0
139.5
16.7
44.9
27.4
35.7
92.9
273.5
10.8
66.2
48.5
109.1
44.9
317.4
32.3
212.4
30.1
42.0
160.4
89.4
51.4
320.0
157.4
40.7

2,236.7
8.6
178.7
139.9
16.9
44.9
27.5
35.6
92.2
272.5
10.9
66.2
48.5
109.2
45.2
319.2
32.2
213.1
29.1
41.7
156.3
88.2
50.7
298.7
136.1
39.9

2,264.5
8.6
179.3
139.8
16.8
44.7
27.3
35.4
92.2
273.1
10.9
66.3
48.3
109.1
44.8
319.6
34.7
214.6
28.6
41.4
156.2
88.5
51.1
322.0
162.9
40.1

2,293.2
8.5
180.7
139.3
16.7
44.3
27.4
35.4
92.3
274.1
10.9
66.2
48.2
108.6
45.0
322.8
34.5
214.9
28.9
41.9
156.9
88.7
51.2
344.2
186.1
40.0

2,316.2
8.5
181.4
138.8
16.7
44.0
27.3
35.2
93.0
278.9
10.9
67.1
48.4
108.8
45.1
325.2
35.6
216.4
29.7
42.1
159.3
88.8
50.2
352.8
193.7
40.1

1.3
-5.6
3.4
-4.6
-3.5
-7.2
-2.8
-1.7
-0.2
1.2
0.0
2.6
-3.4
-0.4
2.0
1.4
7.2
5.5
0.3
0.7
1.5
4.3
1.2
0.7
1.9
1.0

0.9
-5.0
2.7
-6.4
-2.9
-9.6
-5.1
-1.0
-0.8
1.9
-2.9
2.9
-5.8
-1.3
1.3
0.9
7.3
5.7
2.2
-0.7
1.1
1.9
3.3
0.6
1.5
-0.1

15.40
14.33
13.49
11.56
17.15

15.41
14.49
13.47
11.51
17.13

15.36
14.54
13.45
11.43
17.19

15.36
14.44
13.64
11.57
17.32

15.29
14.38
13.61
11.52
17.48

4.9
1.6
2.9
1.6
7.8

5.0
1.7
2.2
1.5
6.9

5,025,567
3,457,558
650,884
563,509
353,616
213,356
602,471
323,569
62,836
283,796
1,109,385
32,526
121,722

4,701,948
3,211,296
625,624
523,021
342,006
222,922
656,170
247,958
64,667
248,666
1,057,553
29,097
107,202

5,013,688
3,376,933
626,688
532,600
477,466
222,855
675,183
232,543
49,235
227,868
1,068,359
34,345
106,056

4,854,195
3,263,372
643,341
558,893
388,589
209,753
674,521
224,631
45,401
260,303
1,111,853
36,532
114,166

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

9.3
8.0
5.6
7.6
33.2
-0.4
9.2
0.9
2.9
-4.9
17.9
47.4
2.7

5.4
3.5
4.4
4.8
31.0
1.2
2.1
-1.6
5.7
-7.0
2.9
59.8
3.7

7,263
5,973
133
1,157

6,241
5,746
116
379

5,994
5,669
99
226

6,497
5,633
96
768

...
...
...
...

22.7
31.2
0.0
-15.3

15.7
17.3
7.8
4.1

2,897
2,344
27
526

2,760
2,268
43
449

2,667
2,180
19
467

2,580
2,042
28
510

2,773
2,257
17
499

-0.2
2.0
-5.6
-8.8

9.1
9.9
-11.2
7.5

See sources and abbreviations at the bottom of Page 16.
PAGE 1 8

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

IV
2002

I
2003

II
2003

185.2
180.6
176.6

185.7
181.2
177.2

188.0
183.0
179.1

188.5
183.7
179.6

189.1
184.6
180.3

2.1
2.2
2.1

2.2
2.3
2.3

110.8
111.4

111.2
111.9

111.9
112.6

112.2
112.8

112.7
113.5

1.7
1.9

1.5
1.9

CHANGE OF ADDRESS

Attach old label or fill in old address in shaded box below.

NEW Address:

Mail to: Economic and Business

Name: __________________________________________________________
Organization:______________________________________________________
Title: ____________________________________________________________
Address: ________________________________________________________
City: ____________________________________________________________
State: ____________________________________

III
2003

% change versus year ago
for most recent:
quarter
4-quarters

III
2002

Research Publications
McClelland Hall 103
The University of Arizona
PO Box 210108
Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108

Zip: ________________

Telephone: ________________ E-mail: ________________________________

Name: ____________________________________________________________
Organization: ______________________________________________________
Title: ____________________________________________________________
Address: __________________________________________________________
City:______________________________________________________________
State: ________________________________________

1/04
TO ORDER
Check the appropriate box below and include a check or money order, where applicable.

Arizona’s Economy—now also available on-line!
❑ Electronic subscription (Please notify me via e-mail when each new quarterly issue is posted
on your Web site. Do not send hard copy.)
❑ Printed subscription only, please:
❑ free of charge in the United States ❑ $12.00 (U.S.) international subscription
❑ Both of the above
Arizona Economic Indicators
❑ $21.00 in the U.S. (Fall 2003 and Spring 2004)
❑ $28.00 (U.S.) international subscription (Fall 2003 and Spring 2004)
❑ $10.50 single issue U.S. (specify issue) ❑ $14.00 single issue international (specify issue)
2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract (prices include shipping and handling)
❑ $54.95 in the U.S.
❑ $70.00 international
1993 Arizona Statistical Abstract (prices include shipping and handling)
❑ $27.95 in the U.S.
❑ $36.00 international
Name: _________________________________________E-mail: ________________________________________
Title: __________________________________________Organization: ___________________________________
Address: _____________________________________________________________________________________

Zip: _______________

Telephone: ________________________________________________________

ARIZONA’S
ECONOMY
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY IS PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE
ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION,
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721.
520-621-2155.
COPYRIGHT 2004 BY THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA.
REQUESTS FOR COPIES, PERMISSION TO REPRINT AND CHANGE
OF ADDRESS NOTICES SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE STAFF.
INTERIM DEAN.............................................KENNETH R. SMITH
DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC
AND BUSINESS RESEARCH............................MARSHALL J. VEST
DIRECTOR OF MARKETING
AND COMMUNICATIONS ........................................JULIE KRELL

ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
520-621-2155

City: __________________________________________State: ____________Zip:________________- _________
Country: _____________________Telephone: ( )_______________________Fax: ( ) ______________________
Total amount enclosed: $ __________________________

Please make check or money order payable to: Economic and Business Research
Mail to: Economic and Business Research Publications, McClelland Hall 103,
The University of Arizona, PO Box 210108, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108

Visit our Web site! ebr.eller.arizona.edu
Made possible through the support of Bank One

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

ECONOMIC IMPACT
& FISCAL ANALYSIS ......................ALBERTA CHARNEY
621-2291
FORECASTING PROJECT .................MARSHALL J. VEST
621-4075
STATE DATA CENTER ...........................PIA MONTOYA
621-2523
DATA REFERENCE..................................VALORIE RICE
621-2109
EBR WEBMASTER.......................MAILE NADELHOFFER
621-4050

PAGE 1 9

ARIZONA’S
ECONOMY
Printing and mailing
for this issue of
Arizona’s Economy
made possible by

GOOD DECISIONS NEED
GOOD INFORMAT I O N
Your Input Counts!
Don't guess when it comes to emerging
economic trends. Register your views with the
Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index®,
and you'll get a clearer picture of what's in
store for the local economy and your business.
Go to www.blcindex.com and take a few
minutes to register. You’ll be notified by
e-mail when the next survey opens (the last
month of each quarter).
All information provided remains confidential.
Your participation ensures access to survey
results before they're made public. This
enables you to base your business decisions
on the most current information available.
Register today!

PRSRT. STD.
U.S. POSTAGE
P A I D
TUCSON, ARIZONA

PUBLICATIONS OFFICE
ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS
AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
M CCLELLAND HALL 103
PO BOX 210108
TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721-0108

ADDRESS SERVICE REQUESTED

PERMIT NO. 190