A P R I L

2 0 0 2

IS THE
RECESSION
OVER?
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
February 28, 2002

I

s the recession over? A growing chorus
of economists from across the nation
says yes. Some have suggested that
the U.S. economy really didn’t recess at
all. If it did, the recession was short and
mild. That view is not supported by data
for Arizona. There is no doubt about the
presence of recession in Arizona. Moreover, there is no evidence of its ending.
With data through December, Arizona’s
economy was shrinking. We’ll need
several more months of data before
we can declare the recession over.
As we expected, statewide data for the fourth
quarter was pretty bleak, showing large job
losses across a number of industries. The
shock of the terrorist attacks of September
11 and subsequent related events hit travel
and tourism-related industries especially
hard, thus broadening the number of industries in decline and accelerating the fall.
Total nonagricultural employment, a comprehensive measure of employment that’s
widely accepted as the single best measure
of state and local conditions, peaked in
February 2001, which means that the recession in Arizona began in March. That’s one
month earlier than nationwide. From February
through December, over 40,500 jobs were
lost, or roughly 1.8% of the total. Comparing
to prior recessions, jobs did not decline
during the 1990-91 recession — or during
the short recession of 1980. But Arizona lost

S P R I N G

2.5% of its job base during the 1981-82 downturn and 4.8% during 1974-75 (Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 2 shows the industries that have
been losing jobs in recent months. The largest
decline is in business services, which has
trimmed more than 32,000 jobs since
peaking in January 2001. Business services
jobs have not declined since the 1974-75
recession. These losses reflect growth in
the “contingent workforce” in recent years
as well as outsourcing of such activities as
data processing, payroll, public relations,
janitorial services, accounting, etc. Many
contract workers are provided by employment agencies, which also are included in
this category. Business services will rebound
quickly, as soon as the economy turns up.
The losses in manufacturing are approaching
15,000 and are nearly twice the number lost
during the Asian crisis of 1998. Early in the
recession, high tech sectors such as computers, semiconductors, electronic components
and telecom equipment suffered losses.
Recently, aerospace and missile manufacturers hit a downdraft as well. Recovery
should begin during the first or second
quarter, but gains are expected to be weak.
Arizona is highly dependent on travel and
tourism, which was hit hard by the terrorist
attacks. The transportation industry, which
includes the airlines, has lost 4,100 jobs
since its July 2001 peak. The good news is
that airline passenger counts are improving
and airlines are bringing larger airplanes to
the gate. Even so, December passenger counts

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Arizona's Recession Started
in March 2001
Nonag Employment, AZ
Seasonally Adjusted
000s
2400

% chg vs year ago
8
7

2200

6
5

2000

4
left

3

1800

2
right

1600

1
0
-1

1400

-2
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

remain below year ago levels, by 10% in
Tucson and 12% in Phoenix (Exhibit 3).
Barring additional terrorist attacks, passenger counts will improve when the economy
recovers and business travelers return. It may
take longer for leisure travelers, who are
choosing to travel via automobile to locations
close by. Airline travel may never be the same
due to the inconvenience of added security
measures and lingering images of airliners
smashing into buildings.
Hotels also felt the impact of 9/11. They
were already cutting back from an August
2000 peak in response to declining business
travel. The attacks triggered a near free-fall
as business and leisure travelers decided to
stay at home. Some 5500 jobs have been cut
since the peak with 4000 of those occurring

I N S I D E

FORECAST TABLES ................4
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........5

ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

T UCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 3
Terrorist Attacks Hit Airlines Hard

EXHIBIT 4
Likewise for Hotels and Lodging

Airline Passengers (Millions)
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, 4-period Moving Average)

Hotel Jobs, Arizona (Seasonally adjusted)
000s

40

4.0

35

3.5

48

46
Tucson Int’l
(right)

44

30

3.0
42

PHX Sky Harbor
(left)
25

2.5
40

20

2.0
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

EXHIBIT 2
Industries in Decline, Arizona
Peak

Jobs Lost

mm/yy

number

%

Mining

10/00

800

8.0

Construction

02/01

13,200

7.8

Manufacturing

01/01

14,600

6.7

Transportation

07/01

4,100

5.6

Communications
& Utilities

07/00

1,100

2.9

General
Merchandise
& Apparel

10/00

1,100

1.8

Food Stores

08/01

1,300

2.1

Hotels
& Lodging Places

08/00

5,500

11.7

Business Services

01/01

32,100

13.8

Total Non-Ag

02/01

40,500

1.8

Note: data are seasonally adjusted, losses through
December (2000 quarter 1 benchmark). Original data
from Arizona Department of Economic Security

in the fourth quarter 2001. We concur with
industry analysts who expect that it may be
2003 before this industry recovers its losses
(Exhibit 4).
Even though the housing industry continues
to set records nationally and locally, construcPAGE TWO

99

00

01

02

38
90

91

92

tion employment has declined 13,200, or
nearly 8%, since peaking in February 2001.
Most of the decline is accounted for by commercial construction. Commercial markets
headed south during the first quarter of
2001, as the high-tech bust sent absorption
plummeting, particularly for office space.
As existing projects are completed there are
no new projects in the pipeline for workers
to go to.
Meanwhile, residential markets continue
to amaze. Sales for both new and resale
homes set records, or remain near record
levels, for this expansion in both Tucson
and Phoenix metro areas. Reasons include
low and declining interest rates during 2001,
as well as recognition that real estate is one
of the few assets in recent years to appreciate in value. While the stock market lost value
in each of the past two years and short-term
interest rates fell below 2%, Arizona resale
housing prices increased by nearly 8% last
year, according to a repeat sales index based
on Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac data. Tucson
local real estate consultant, John Strobeck
(Bright Future Consulting), reports median
new housing prices increased 13.7% in 2001.
With the economy in recession, can housing
markets continue their amazing performance?
There is a close relationship between job
growth and residential building permits
that goes back many decades. As shown in
Exhibit 5, a large gap has opened between

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

the two. Job growth statewide has fallen into
negative territory in recent months while
residential units permitted remains very high.
At these levels of job growth, one should not
be surprised to see permits running at only
20-30,000 per year — a 50% drop from
current levels. Is homebuilding another shoe
waiting to drop?
Population growth (and the demand for
new housing) is not entirely employment
driven, of course. Retirement migration is
a major component as well as demand for
second (and in many cases, trophy) homes.
Additionally, it is conceivable that Arizona
could see a shift in demand related to the
terrorist attacks if residents of big cities on
both coasts decide to relocate to low density,
inland cities. We are forecasting a 20% decline
in permits during 2002, which would still
leave homebuilding at a relatively high level
— much higher than in prior recessions.
In the coming months we’ll need to monitor
residential markets closely.
Consumers remain overly optimistic, given
the current slide in the economy, rising job
losses, disappearing incentive pay from
bonuses and stock options, and the threat
of further terrorist attacks. Compared to
decade-ago readings of 60, Arizona Consumer
Confidence lingers near 100, down only 15
points or so from records set in early 2000.
Consumers responded favorably to incentives such as zero percent financing from auto
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 5
Why is Homebuilding So High?

EXHIBIT 6
Autos Mask Weakness in Sales

Building Permits and Number of New Jobs, AZ

Retail Sales Growth, AZ, Data Through November
Current Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted, Smoothed

Permits
(000s, seas. adj. 6-per mov avg)

Jobs
(000s, 12-mo. chg, 2-per mov avg)
120

70

% chg vs year ago
20

100
60

15

80
50
60

10

permits

total

40

40
jobs

5

20
30
0
20

0
ex-autos

-20
10

-40
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

producers by boosting auto sales to record
levels in October and November. This masked
much of the weakness in retail outside of the
auto sector. After subtracting autos, retail
sales in Arizona have plunged below yearearlier levels (Exhibit 6). The forecast
for 2002 calls for a small decline of one
percent or so, followed by a rebound of
6.5% in 2003.
Most of the weakness in Arizona’s economy
is centered in the metro Phoenix area, which
has lost 38,700 seasonally adjusted jobs since
January 2001. Metro Tucson has trimmed only
1000 jobs during that same period. Retail
sales also have held up better in Tucson, with
sales (excluding autos) even with last year.
Since the beginning of the year, however,
Tucson’s aerospace and missiles sectors,
which had been holding up well, suffered layoff announcements totaling nearly 1000 jobs.
Tucson’s unemployment rate in December,
which stood at 4.1%, can be expected to
move up in coming months and approach
the Phoenix area’s 5.2%.

THE OUTLOOK
We can expect the Arizona economy to
begin growing again in the first quarter, but
the pace will be slow. Here are the reasons.
• The effects of recent layoffs and lost
incentive income have yet to reverberate
through the economy.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

99

00

01

02

-5
90

91

92

• The public sector (state and local government) will exert a strong contractionary
effect on the economy as budgets are
slashed for the current year and next.
• Population growth, which traditionally
lags job markets by as much as a year,
will slow in 2002, thereby lowering the
demand for new homes.
• Commercial construction will remain
depressed for at least another year.
• Travel and tourism will continue to recover
slowly, and it will be into the fall before yearover-year comparisons turn positive again.
• Rising bankruptcies and resulting debt
deflation will adversely affect bank profitability and willingness to lend.
The recovery will be led by manufacturing,
as excess inventories have been cut dramatically, and production will need to increase
just to meet current demand. This will be most
evident among electronics, semiconductors
and computer manufacturers. Missiles and
aerospace also should do well. But, sectors
tied to commercial aviation manufacturing
will remain depressed. Business services
will improve, but with a lag of a few months.
Since the economy was declining during
most of 2001, it will take most of 2002 just
to regain lost ground. So, on an annual
average basis, employment will show no
growth statewide in 2002. Personal income
will grow by less than three percent, and

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

retail sales will actually decline by a percent
or so. The following year, we’ll see growth
resume with jobs gaining 2.6%, personal
income 6.3% and sales up 6.5%. (see forecast table page four) ■

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Department of Commerce
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement Company
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Mesa
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
KB Home
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima County
Qwest Communications
Qwest Dex
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Healthcare Council
Tucson Newspapers
PAGE THREE

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

2000
130,042.6
9.0
25,159
5.8
54,282.1
8.8
5,168.9
3.0
108.4
2,249.1
4.0
386.6
2.4
161.1
4.2
215.7
1.9
1,862.5
4.4
527.1
3.5
715.0
5.5

2001
136,401.9
4.9
25,623
1.8
54,985.7
1.3
5,323.5
3.0
101.1
2,276.7
1.2
388.0
0.4
165.6
2.7
213.0
-1.2
1,888.7
1.4
532.9
1.1
722.6
1.1

2002
140,063.7
2.7
25,699
0.3
54,482.7
-0.9
5,450.2
2.4
69.2
2,277.3
0.0
371.9
-4.2
161.7
-2.3
201.2
-5.6
1,905.5
0.9
533.5
0.1
731.5
1.2

2003
148,846.9
6.3
26,725
4.0
57,716.0
5.9
5,569.6
2.2
94.4
2,337.5
2.6
374.2
0.6
160.4
-0.8
205.0
1.9
1,963.4
3.0
551.1
3.3
761.6
4.1

2004
159,470.5
7.1
27,868
4.3
63,285.7
9.7
5,722.3
2.7
117.3
2,419.2
3.5
390.1
4.3
172.2
7.4
209.3
2.1
2,029.0
3.3
568.5
3.2
793.9
4.2

2005
169,958.1
6.6
28,871
3.6
67,995.3
7.4
5,886.8
2.9
121.3
2,502.7
3.5
409.7
5.0
182.9
6.2
218.2
4.2
2,093.1
3.2
584.3
2.8
826.0
4.1

2006
179,835.8
5.8
29,710
2.9
72,671.5
6.9
6,053.1
2.8
120.2
2,580.9
3.1
427.2
4.3
191.1
4.5
227.4
4.2
2,153.8
2.9
599.8
2.7
857.7
3.8

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
89,237.7
7.2
27,232
3.7
37,333.7
8.8
3,277.0
3.4
75.5
1,580.0
3.6
286.9
1.6
118.5
4.2
165.8
0.8
1,293.1
4.1
372.8
2.7
519.0
5.4

2001
93,433.2
4.7
27,620
1.4
37,917.4
1.6
3,382.8
3.2
71.9
1,592.4
0.8
287.5
0.2
123.6
4.3
161.4
-2.7
1,304.9
0.9
375.9
0.8
520.5
0.3

2002
95,474.5
2.2
27,535
-0.3
37,875.4
-0.1
3,467.4
2.5
51.0
1,590.8
-0.1
278.3
-3.2
119.9
-3.0
155.8
-3.4
1,312.5
0.6
374.9
-0.3
525.6
1.0

2003
101,415.6
6.2
28,554
3.7
40,203.0
6.1
3,551.7
2.4
51.8
1,632.0
2.6
276.9
-0.5
121.1
1.0
153.1
-1.7
1,355.1
3.2
384.8
2.6
546.3
3.9

2004
109,953.7
8.4
30,026
5.2
45,124.8
12.2
3,661.9
3.1
77.1
1,698.0
4.0
286.4
3.4
130.3
7.6
153.4
0.2
1,411.6
4.2
403.9
5.0
566.7
3.7

2005
118,736.3
8.0
31,355
4.4
49,369.6
9.4
3,786.9
3.4
90.5
1,775.2
4.5
304.5
6.3
142.3
9.1
159.6
4.0
1,470.7
4.2
423.2
4.8
590.1
4.1

2006
127,593.1
7.5
32,583
3.9
53,386.9
8.1
3,915.9
3.4
93.5
1,849.1
4.2
321.2
5.5
152.5
7.2
166.0
4.0
1,527.9
3.9
442.3
4.5
613.8
4.0

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

2000
20,696.3
7.7
24,415
5.7
8,499.3
8.2
847.7
1.9
11.1
350.1
4.1
56.9
5.3
21.7
1.1
33.3
8.8
293.2
3.8
72.7
2.6
118.5
5.0

2001
21,829.7
5.5
25,135
3.0
8,667.0
2.0
868.5
2.5
15.4
353.1
0.8
57.2
0.4
21.6
-0.6
33.8
1.3
295.9
0.9
73.2
0.7
118.6
0.1

2002
22,307.1
2.2
25,251
0.5
8,633.3
-0.4
883.4
1.7
9.5
351.1
-0.6
55.7
-2.6
21.4
-0.8
33.0
-2.2
295.4
-0.2
71.9
-1.8
119.5
0.8

2003
23,670.7
6.1
26,281
4.1
9,140.5
5.9
900.7
2.0
11.7
360.1
2.6
56.4
1.2
21.7
1.4
33.4
1.2
303.7
2.8
73.8
2.6
123.9
3.7

2004
25,441.0
7.5
27,553
4.8
9,711.0
6.2
923.3
2.5
17.1
373.0
3.6
58.1
3.1
23.1
6.4
33.8
1.2
314.9
3.7
76.9
4.3
129.0
4.1

2005
27,056.9
6.4
28,569
3.7
10,242.4
5.5
947.1
2.6
18.1
384.8
3.2
60.0
3.1
24.7
6.6
34.1
1.0
324.9
3.2
79.7
3.6
133.7
3.6

2006
28,650.3
5.9
29,539
3.4
10,742.0
4.9
969.9
2.4
17.1
395.0
2.6
61.2
2.1
25.7
4.0
34.4
0.8
333.8
2.7
82.0
2.9
138.2
3.3

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

PAGE FOUR

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

67,175
46,700
20,475
30.5

63,550
47,525
16,025
25.2

60,500
48,250
12,250
20.2

59,950
50,375
9,575
16.0

57,975
50,125
7,850
13.5

-6.6
-3.2
-23.8
-18.4

-2.7
2.0
-14.7
-12.5

40,150
2,900
2,350
1,375
10,450
1,250
9,825
12,000

40,900
2,875
2,325
1,425
10,550
1,300
10,050
12,375

41,825
2,850
2,275
1,475
11,075
1,375
10,300
12,475

43,775
2,800
2,275
1,575
12,750
1,375
10,550
12,450

43,050
2,700
2,050
1,625
12,600
1,425
10,675
11,975

0.2
-1.8
-14.6
1.6
-2.3
0.0
3.1
3.9

2.9
1.6
2.1
-2.3
1.8
0.0
4.3
4.3

80,444
63,053
8,724
8,667
6,293
17,427

92,123
74,644
8,852
8,627
6,645
19,093

101,434
82,547
9,599
9,288
7,760
17,632

121,726
101,344
11,288
9,094
8,864
21,575

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.1
4.0
2.8
-24.3
13.4
5.7

3.8
4.8
5.8
-4.7
-0.6
-4.4

15,624
11,814
1,682
2,128

20,189
10,563
4,257
5,369

12,182
6,909
5,273
0

10,010
8,510
1,500
0

13,318
9,286
3,735
297

19.8
14.0
136.2
-78.7

3.8
-20.1
76.3
13.1

155
75

101
101

71
71

89
89

90
90

1.1
1.1

-11.3
-11.3

74,275
70,800
3,475
4.7

73,550
70,075
3,475
4.7

74,300
70,575
3,725
5.0

73,975
70,325
3,650
4.9

74,625
70,650
3,975
5.3

4.6
4.0
15.2
10.2

4.6
4.4
8.0
3.2

47,225
100
4,625
3,500
2,350
13,825
1,575
11,200
10,050

47,050
100
4,475
3,450
2,325
14,025
1,525
11,025
10,125

47,400
100
4,575
3,450
2,325
14,175
1,525
11,025
10,225

47,975
75
4,625
3,400
2,350
14,325
1,525
11,075
10,600

46,875
75
4,400
3,425
2,325
13,950
1,525
11,075
10,100

0.1
-25
-7.9
-2.1
2.2
0.0
1.7
-3.1
8.3

0.9
-6.3
20.6
-3.4
0.2
-0.3
3.9
-5.4
3.6

102,916
76,300
13,283
13,333
9,680
26,596

110,060
82,755
15,420
11,885
9,155
26,651

118,192
92,811
12,761
12,620
10,543
25,770

126,939
102,208
13,522
11,209
10,926
28,843

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.8
6.0
10.3
-29.9
5.0
18.5

3.7
5.7
5.0
-6.5
-2.3
-1.8

19,717
15,086
1,544
3,087

33,066
15,584
3,773
13,709

14,267
11,194
1,462
1,611

18,847
16,641
1,829
377

22,982
17,562
5,130
290

3.6
-11.0
316.7
-76.2

-18.6
-0.5
-39.9
-42.0

152
148

153
149

113
111

161
155

182
170

-11.2
-7.1

1.1
1.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE FIVE

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

41,375
39,475
1,900
4.6

41,225
39,325
1,900
4.6

41,425
39,525
1,900
4.6

41,350
39,375
1,975
4.8

41,275
39,050
2,225
5.4

1.9
1.4
12.7
10.5

4.2
4.1
6.6
2.2

33,350
2,200
1,050
1,275
7,900
750
8,925
11,250

33,200
2,150
950
1,300
7,900
750
8,900
11,250

33,400
2,100
900
1,300
8,025
725
9,000
11,350

33,400
2,100
925
1,300
8,050
725
9,000
11,300

32,625
2,100
900
1,275
7,750
725
8,875
11,000

-0.3
2.4
-5.3
-3.8
0.3
0.0
-3.0
1.9

2.8
11.9
-8.9
-1.1
3.0
0.3
5.7
0.5

57,038
44,744
7,027
5,267
3,824
10,076

59,506
47,297
6,773
5,436
4,188
11,223

63,795
52,148
6,787
4,860
4,061
12,577

77,268
63,490
8,083
5,695
5,551
13,306

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.2
2.9
10.7
-14.5
28.1
18.6

4.9
7.3
4.7
-11.3
-6.2
-8.4

9,132
4,111
3,625
1,396

12,245
6,033
4,848
1,364

4,330
3,656
197
477

4,719
4,151
241
327

10,561
5,616
0
4,945

-43.3
30.9
-100.0
-15.3

-35.4
-11.1
-67.8
-28.4

46
46

58
58

41
41

46
46

61
61

24.5
24.5

-11.9
-1.1

14,075
11,225
2,850
20.2

14,050
11,175
2,875
20.5

13,450
11,525
1,925
14.3

13,425
11,900
1,525
11.4

13,325
12,050
1,275
9.6

2.5
1.7
10.9
8.2

0.1
1.3
-6.9
-6.8

11,800
425
875
1,125
4,350
425
1,500
3,100

11,725
400
900
1,125
4,275
425
1,500
3,100

12,100
375
875
1,200
4,500
425
1,525
3,200

12,600
400
875
1,225
4,875
450
1,550
3,225

12,575
375
875
1,225
4,875
400
1,575
3,250

0.8
-6.3
-7.9
-2.0
4.3
-5.9
-3.1
3.2

0.0
4.3
-6.8
1.2
4.2
72.6
-13.6
-2.5

23,910
19,087
2,239
2,584
1,876
4,039

24,095
19,869
2,580
1,646
1,268
4,174

27,826
22,827
2,427
2,572
2,148
3,706

37,773
32,088
2,896
2,789
2,719
3,368

...
...
...
...
...
...

0.2
2.9
-6.9
-17.8
23.0
-19.6

6.6
6.5
2.9
10.7
16.0
-2.6

2,206
2,131
75
0

4,413
4,173
240
0

2,342
2,342
0
0

3,070
2,141
750
179

2,804
2,235
569
0

-36.2
-8.7
-70.8
...

-20.2
-11.9
-63.2
5.2

21
21

28
28

22
22

18
18

20
20

0.0
0.0

-35.4
0.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE SIX

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

17,250
16,350
900
5.2

17,225
16,200
1,025
6.0

17,375
16,300
1,075
6.2

17,200
16,050
1,150
6.7

17,325
16,075
1,250
7.2

2.1
0.9
19.0
16.6

1.0
0.8
5.0
4.0

14,025
700
1,050
950
475
3,075
275
2,925
4,575

13,925
675
1,025
950
475
3,100
275
2,900
4,525

13,950
675
1,025
925
475
3,125
275
2,925
4,525

13,875
675
975
950
475
3,150
275
2,800
4,575

13,700
675
900
925
475
3,125
275
2,800
4,525

-2.1
-3.6
-10.0
-9.8
-5.0
2.5
0.0
3.7
-4.7

-1.3
0.3
-1.4
-8.3
-5.3
-5.2
0.0
9.0
-2.5

26,103
18,993
4,014
3,096
2,248
9,891

25,524
19,268
3,521
2,735
2,107
6,694

25,606
19,744
3,430
2,432
2,032
7,034

28,005
22,364
3,632
2,009
1,959
8,265

...
...
...
...
...
...

-10.3
-2.1
1.4
-58.2
-37.5
11.0

3.9
5.5
5.0
-6.5
-2.6
4.8

5,339
4,411
185
743

35,599
2,555
544
32,500

2,881
2,600
0
281

3,090
2,747
0
343

15,370
4,218
3,628
7,524

175.6
47.7
33.3
...

13.9
-11.5
88.5
24.4

31
31

19
19

22
22

18
18

29
29

31.8
31.8

-14.2
-13.2

13,650
12,600
1,050
7.7

13,575
12,475
1,100
8.1

13,425
12,375
1,050
7.8

13,500
12,325
1,175
8.7

13,300
12,150
1,150
8.6

-7.6
-9.8
24.3
34.6

-3.8
-5.6
23.3
28.1

10,475
2,325
475
325
225
2,250
225
1,675
2,975

10,325
2,225
425
325
250
2,275
225
1,575
3,025

10,250
2,125
425
325
250
2,300
225
1,600
3,000

10,175
2,125
425
325
225
2,350
200
1,575
2,950

9,925
2,150
375
325
200
2,250
200
1,550
2,875

-10.8
-11.3
-62.5
-7.1
-11.1
2.3
0.0
-1.6
-8.7

-7.2
-6.3
-45.4
10.3
-0.9
-0.1
16.9
-6.4
-5.5

18,695
15,659
1,619
1,417
1,029
7,094

20,370
17,441
1,554
1,375
1,059
4,684

17,904
15,343
1,171
1,390
1,162
4,146

18,955
16,076
1,704
1,175
1,145
3,317

...
...
...
...
...
...

-23.5
-24.1
0.8
-38.9
-8.5
16.3

-2.7
-0.4
-8.6
-16.9
-12.8
27.7

1,325
653
672
0

197
197
0
156

335
298
37
0

482
482
0
0

8,051
451
7,600
14,564

535.4
-21.0
992.0
2,812.8

15.8
-30.7
73.2
24.9

5
5

2
2

3
3

4
4

4
4

-50.0
-50.0

-38.6
-38.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

51,550
46,800
4,750
9.2

51,050
46,350
4,700
9.2

50,825
46,150
4,675
9.2

50,950
45,825
5,125
10.1

51,400
45,650
5,750
11.2

1.9
4.8
-16.1
-17.7

1.5
3.0
-9.0
-10.4

47,275
900
2,200
1,150
2,575
7,925
1,400
7,650
23,475

46,775
875
2,125
1,125
2,575
7,925
1,325
7,450
23,375

46,525
850
2,075
1,125
2,600
7,875
1,350
7,200
23,450

46,500
850
2,075
1,125
2,600
7,825
1,375
7,075
23,575

45,675
850
1,875
1,075
2,550
7,400
1,325
7,025
23,575

2.0
0.0
-7.4
2.4
4.1
1.7
-1.9
2.2
2.9

0.9
-2.4
4.7
-0.9
0.0
-3.9
1.5
-4.1
4.3

74,005
56,386
7,099
10,520
7,638
20,041

72,039
56,407
5,836
9,796
7,546
28,048

63,252
49,925
5,280
8,047
6,722
20,165

70,769
58,716
5,319
6,734
6,564
19,038

...
...
...
...
...
...

-4.1
-0.4
-2.9
-28.2
7.5
35.5

-2.6
-2.6
0.8
-4.9
-0.3
15.7

15,046
7,345
4,278
3,423

37,562
11,000
14,779
11,783

14,179
6,987
6,380
812

7,041
4,554
1,678
809

13,279
4,231
5,439
3,609

125.0
-28.3
...
...

7.9
1.7
32.9
1.0

54
54

84
84

50
50

34
34

43
41

-4.4
-8.9

5.5
0.0

136,150
131,225
4,925
3.6

135,925
131,000
4,925
3.6

135,800
130,225
5,575
4.1

134,675
128,750
5,925
4.4

134,350
127,675
6,675
5.0

7.2
7.0
11.3
3.7

3.6
3.6
1.9
-1.6

112,975
1,200
7,575
6,425
3,025
28,400
2,925
32,050
31,375

112,750
1,150
7,500
6,400
3,025
28,475
2,950
31,550
31,700

112,125
1,150
7,475
6,350
2,925
28,550
2,925
31,225
31,525

111,300
1,100
7,450
6,375
2,975
28,250
2,900
31,450
30,800

108,800
850
7,125
6,150
2,925
27,325
2,875
31,175
30,375

3.8
-22.7
1.1
2.5
2.6
4.5
1.8
5.9
3.3

1.4
0.9
-6.7
6.7
1.9
3.2
-3.6
1.1
1.6

216,153
151,666
40,259
24,228
17,591
64,129

226,325
165,395
38,100
22,830
17,586
57,587

207,273
155,649
31,041
20,583
17,196
59,071

238,016
180,540
31,249
26,227
25,565
55,843

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.8
1.3
0.2
18.7
77.7
10.1

3.1
4.0
0.9
1.0
7.2
10.2

41,146
30,894
5,757
4,495

79,885
54,679
15,345
9,861

57,081
32,813
23,510
758

43,914
34,021
9,494
399

47,360
30,808
5,470
11,082

22.4
6.9
62.3
70.9

5.1
11.8
-17.4
11.8

233
193

516
271

201
199

295
217

207
199

11.3
8.2

25.0
12.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

1,640.3
1,562.6
77.7
4.0

1,650.8
1,570.8
80.0
4.6

1,657.5
1,573.8
83.7
4.9

1,659.9
1,572.1
87.8
5.2

1,649.4
1,559.4
90.0
5.5

5.2
2.2
112.3
103.7

4.2
2.6
60.7
49.7

1,592.6
2.3
122.0
155.3
121.9
33.4
87.0
378.1
89.7
288.4
126.7
513.3
207.9

1,600.7
2.3
121.6
154.5
121.0
33.5
86.0
383.7
89.0
294.7
127.4
512.7
212.5

1,601.4
2.3
118.5
152.9
119.6
33.3
85.1
390.6
89.3
301.3
127.7
510.4
213.9

1,605.4
2.3
117.0
152.6
119.1
33.5
85.2
395.6
89.7
305.9
127.9
511.8
213.0

1,566.6
2.3
113.8
148.1
115.0
33.1
83.0
382.1
88.9
293.2
126.1
504.8
206.4

-1.0
-4.2
-2.7
-10.4
-11.3
-7.0
-4.7
0.1
-2.0
0.7
2.4
-1.1
6.0

0.5
-6.3
1.3
-4.9
-4.2
-7.3
1.8
1.4
-0.7
2.1
4.4
-0.8
3.4

2,937,233
2,080,331
373,360
326,585
156,958
668,849

3,140,345
2,223,491
386,912
367,389
162,553
690,525

3,081,976
2,180,334
391,892
359,482
150,268
752,415

3,746,502
2,843,400
392,889
381,305
128,909
771,235

...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.7
0.1
-0.2
-1.6
-32.1
9.7

1.4
1.4
2.2
2.5
-2.2
6.4

1,331,882
401,330
173,375
757,177

758,695
413,813
222,794
122,088

444,024
334,916
98,906
10,202

665,928
345,592
80,603
239,733

668,885
401,887
224,475
42,523

-40.3
-25.8
-37.9
-80.4

-10.6
-13.2
-30.0
65.5

3,995
2,753
58
1,184

2,475
2,375
27
73

2,200
2,172
14
14

2,731
2,012
38
681

...
...
...
...

6.7
-8.0
11.8
100.9

-6.2
0.2
-6.8
-27.4

851,218
4,939
172,346

784,746
4,528
173,310

765,408
4,440
172,389

829,518
4,665
177,817

717,587
3,824
187,653

19.9
11.1
7.9

13.4
11.1
2.2

1,964,811
38,379

2,670,110
44,940

2,645,153
33,344

2,671,720
42,300

...
...

-12.0
-12.8

-1.7
-7.6

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

3,319.4
8.1
14.1
5.9
20.9

3,346.0
8.4
14.4
5.9
18.2

3,370.5
8.5
14.5
6.0
16.0

3,392.9
8.5
14.5
6.0
13.9

3,414.3
8.5
14.5
6.0
12.9

2.9
4.1
3.0
1.5
-38.1

3.2
7.1
4.6
1.2
-21.7

90,845
69,480
4,417
-92
15,990
9,884
27,368

92,518
70,849
4,510
-91
16,152
10,118
27,651

93,212
71,407
4,557
-91
16,030
10,422
27,655

93,779
71,902
4,598
-90
15,873
10,692
27,640

94,225
72,364
4,636
-90
15,684
10,903
27,598

3.7
4.2
5.0
2.4
-1.9
10.3
0.8

4.7
5.1
5.9
2.5
-0.5
11.0
1.5

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JAN
2002

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

397.5
381.9
15.6
3.3

399.0
382.9
16.1
3.7

402.3
385.1
17.2
4.0

402.3
384.7
17.6
4.1

401.1
382.7
18.4
4.5

4.9
3.2
62.8
55.2

2.9
2.1
30.7
22.4

351.0
1.9
22.6
34.1
29.2
4.9
11.6
71.3
10.3
61.0
14.8
115.2
79.5

351.5
1.9
22.3
33.9
29.1
4.8
11.0
72.3
10.3
62.0
15.0
115.2
79.9

353.1
1.8
21.5
33.7
28.9
4.8
11.0
73.5
10.4
63.1
15.0
114.8
81.8

354.1
1.8
21.4
33.4
28.6
4.8
11.2
74.2
10.4
63.8
15.1
115.1
81.9

346.3
1.6
20.8
32.9
28.3
4.6
10.9
71.2
9.8
61.4
15.0
114.9
79.0

-0.3
-15.8
-2.8
-2.1
-0.4
-11.5
-9.9
-1.1
-3.9
-0.6
4.2
-1.1
4.4

-0.1
-1.8
0.3
1.8
3.5
-7.2
-3.0
-0.9
-6.0
-0.0
5.8
-1.7
1.8

654,105
444,261
92,259
76,568
41,017
127,714

703,140
484,208
95,608
82,059
41,265
122,894

721,718
507,442
96,839
78,020
39,417
128,893

874,430
650,340
97,085
91,512
35,493
127,644

...
...
...
...
...
...

0.1
2.4
0.4
3.4
-33.3
1.4

1.8
2.2
2.8
3.6
-6.7
3.4

129,566
80,979
40,938
7,649

124,781
84,125
16,257
24,399

83,642
65,412
6,563
11,667

150,387
107,737
38,533
4,117

90,362
63,486
17,525
9,351

-18.1
-28.8
7.6
90.4

-19.5
-11.0
-34.8
-35.4

649
573
76

755
553
202

505
404
102

585
471
113

575
505
70

5.3
1.8
39.3

5.1
-2.2
44.5

136,368
857
159,122

139,189
910
152,955

120,636
772
156,264

127,954
774
165,316

116,272
743
156,489

9.3
6.4
2.7

7.5
4.6
2.5

185,443
15,324

274,529
22,930

278,883
21,596

278,432
19,910

264,818
22,105

-14.1
0.8

-1.4
4.7

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

IV
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

III
2001

856.2
1.3
3.1
1.8
4.4

861.5
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.9

866.2
1.3
3.1
1.7
3.4

870.3
1.4
3.1
1.7
2.7

874.1
1.4
3.1
1.8
2.4

2.1
6.5
1.5
-2.1
-45.1

2.3
9.0
1.2
-4.1
-13.4

21,132
13,522
810
152
5,037
3,231
24,681

21,595
13,808
827
156
5,157
3,302
25,068

21,780
13,917
835
158
5,165
3,375
25,144

21,923
14,007
841
160
5,154
3,443
25,189

22,021
14,082
846
161
5,121
3,503
25,193

4.2
4.1
4.4
5.7
1.7
8.4
2.1

5.5
5.3
5.6
7.1
3.8
9.0
3.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

2,453.3
2,319.7
133.6
5.1

2,460.0
2,327.9
132.1
5.3

2,467.0
2,333.9
133.1
5.6

2,467.2
2,331.7
135.5
5.8

2,454.1
2,315.6
138.5
5.8

4.7
2.5
62.2
52.6

3.6
2.6
28.8
24.9

2,264.4
9.4
165.7
206.5
162.3
44.2
111.4
71.0
527.9
109.7
418.2
150.7
707.2
385.6
49.0
336.6
182.9
39.8

2,274.1
9.3
165.0
205.1
160.8
44.3
109.8
69.6
534.9
109.2
425.7
151.6
706.4
392.0
48.8
343.2
189.4
39.7

2,277.3
9.2
160.9
203.2
159.0
44.2
109.0
69.1
543.8
109.8
434.0
152.0
703.7
395.5
49.5
346.0
193.0
40.1

2,283.0
9.1
159.2
202.4
158.1
44.3
109.4
69.8
551.3
111.6
439.7
152.3
705.0
394.3
50.3
344.0
190.5
40.3

2,230.3
8.6
154.9
197.3
153.6
43.7
106.8
67.1
533.2
110.2
423.0
150.3
696.8
382.4
49.0
333.4
179.6
...

-0.6
-10.4
-2.9
-8.4
-9.0
-6.2
-4.4
-5.0
0.1
-2.0
0.6
2.5
-0.8
4.7
4.0
4.8
6.7
-1.0

0.5
-3.7
1.1
-3.4
-2.8
-5.5
1.2
-1.1
1.0
-1.0
1.5
4.4
-0.8
3.0
0.3
3.4
3.7
-1.0

15.15
13.43
21.22
11.95
14.20

15.25
13.40
21.64
11.93
13.85

15.14
13.60
22.32
12.06
13.72

15.46
13.73
22.94
12.07
13.88

...
...
...
...
...

-2.2
6.5
14.2
9.2
-6.8

2.6
3.1
10.5
1.8
0.6

4,305,492
2,970,480
580,508
487,417
267,086
193,920
599,561
252,030
44,520
290,454
955,856
19,600
100,761

4,592,587
3,190,775
601,580
532,084
268,148
206,554
531,485
235,216
37,623
339,205
971,573
16,692
138,241

4,549,570
3,178,770
609,324
509,998
251,478
210,090
405,272
256,096
61,901
288,582
1,031,409
15,434
124,659

5,461,283
4,070,566
610,873
550,510
229,334
223,544
441,170
253,616
59,237
284,457
1,052,434
16,321
105,301

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

-1.0
0.7
1.4
-0.2
-28.2
7.5
3.6
-4.3
-4.5
-7.9
9.1
-53.7
-16.7

1.7
1.9
3.9
1.1
-3.3
1.5
5.3
3.5
-1.3
3.5
5.7
-42.4
-6.6

1,570,983
558,754
232,131
780,098

1,106,788
602,722
282,837
221,229

635,263
467,127
142,328
25,808

907,488
526,576
134,628
246,284

907,536
539,780
273,571
94,185

-32.2
-23.3
-31.2
-60.3

-10.7
-11.3
-28.5
35.6

5,140
3,849
102
1,189

3,854
3,574
74
206

3,194
3,089
56
49

3,726
2,926
69
731

...
...
...
...

8.3
-3.5
3.0
112.5

-4.1
0.8
3.3
-25.2

1,970
1,565
18
386

2,313
1,850
19
444

2,092
1,659
38
395

3,077
2,628
17
432

...
...
...
...

93.3
108.2
-52.8
46.9

27.0
28.2
-8.2
24.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

III
2001

IV
2001

5,226.9
11.4
21.5
10.1
27.2

5,265.5
11.8
21.2
9.4
26.8

5,304.2
11.1
20.9
9.8
27.6

5,341.6
11.3
21.4
10.1
25.0

5,376.2
11.2
21.4
10.3
21.8

2.9
-2.2
-0.3
1.8
-20.1

3.0
1.4
-0.2
-1.9
-6.7

132,564
95,838
5,728
464
24,679
17,311

135,269
97,576
5,867
471
25,200
17,889

136,261
98,530
5,925
475
25,013
18,168

136,761
98,721
5,936
475
24,897
18,603

137,317
99,005
5,954
477
24,924
18,865

3.6
3.3
3.9
2.8
1.0
9.0

4.9
5.0
4.9
4.2
2.4
7.9

77,976
7,706
9,799
361
9,438
25,362
33,847

79,076
7,793
9,890
318
9,572
25,690
34,236

80,785
7,914
10,105
316
9,789
25,689
35,053

81,300
7,991
10,422
635
9,787
25,603
35,276

...
...
...
...
...
25,541
...

6.3
5.6
6.8
46.0
4.9
0.7
6.0

7.2
6.3
5.5
-3.9
5.9
1.9
5.3

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
SEP
2001
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

JAN
2002

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

1,732,281
128,767
493,916
1,109,598
137,612
23,395
79,188
35,029

1,275,019
124,478
407,089
743,452
179,381
33,552
112,681
33,148

1,041,219
90,270
269,858
681,091
214,191
36,358
152,927
24,906

727,475
65,053
265,622
396,800
207,765
44,843
150,283
12,639

841,133
74,634
232,112
534,387
260,739
49,465
185,702
25,572

-3.0
6.2
3.4
-6.7
-6.1
-13.5
-6.2
14.0

-5.2
-7.1
-6.0
-4.5
0.9
-0.6
-0.1
7.5

542,812
1,551,998
701,508

708,237
1,447,596
636,328

728,168
1,985,853
765,155

905,760
2,311,465
869,402

885,704
2,091,248
...

22.9
4.8
-7.8

-8.8
-10.3
-1.0

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

SEP
2001

OCT
2001

NOV
2001

DEC
2001

178.3
174.8

177.7
174.0

177.4
173.7

176.7
172.9

JAN
2002
177.1
173.2

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
1.1
0.9

2.6
2.5

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE TWELVE

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce

PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES -QUARTERLY DATA

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

IV
2001

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
2000

I
2001

II
2001

III
2001

177.1
174.0
170.7

180.1
175.7
172.2

182.0
177.5
174.2

182.5
177.8
174.1

181.6
177.3
173.5

2.5
1.9
1.6

3.5
2.8
2.7

107.8
108.4

108.7
109.2

109.2
109.6

109.8
109.5

110.1
110.0

2.2
1.5

2.3
1.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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