O C T O B E R

1 9 9 9

Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 1999

PROJECTIONS
TO 2025 SHOW
SLOWER GROWTH
NEAR TERM
Recent data shows that Arizona’s
economy continues to grow rapidly
at mid-year. During the first half,
strong consumer spending more than
offset weaknesses in some sectors such
as agriculture, manufacturing and
mining. The “too good to be true”
economy is beginning to show signs
of slowing, however. Our forecasts for
2000 call for growth rates of only half
those experienced in the past few years.

S

olid job and income growth, easy credit,
and soaring capital gains continue to
buoy consumers. Over the past three
years, household net worth has increased by
$9.4 trillion, due mainly to a soaring stock
market and rising home prices. Consumers
have responded by allocating less to savings
and more to consumption, and this has kept
what will soon become the longest expansion
on record growing at a heady clip.
During the past eight quarters, inflationadjusted retail sales in Arizona have grown
by a very strong 7.5%, much faster than the
20-year average of 3.2% (Exhibit 1). Current
increases are not as strong as experienced
in 1994, but the economy then was much
different. Consumers were just beginning to
satisfy pent-up demand from the recession
of the early 1990’s. No such pent-up demand
exists today, just a near perfect environment
in which consumers have raised their expectations for future income. As they have

F A L L

allocated more to current consumption they
have borrowed heavily, however. The sum
of installment debt, home equity loans and
auto leasing now equals more than 24% of
after-tax income, implying that households
today are more leveraged than anytime in the
postwar period.
During the past year, consumer buying has
accounted for more than 90% of economic
growth. The risks of such imbalance are
obvious. Should the perfect environment
come unraveled and consumers retrench,
the economy will lose its predominant prop.
If the retrenchment turns into debt deflation,
a nasty recession could ensue.
So far, consumer confidence remains near
record levels even though concerns about
higher interest rates pushed readings lower
in the second quarter. The jump in mortgage
rates to over 8.0% has not, as yet, affected
home building or the resale housing market.
Both remain at decade highs. Building permits
moved up to a 70,000 unit annual pace in
recent months and in June they were nearly
14% higher than one year earlier. In the
Tucson area, resales have soared to an 11,000
unit pace (up 16.7% on a 12-month versus
12-month ending in June), while sales in the
Phoenix area are running at a 57,000 annual
pace (up 13.7%). Perversely, the recent jump
in mortgage rates may have boosted these
numbers as consumers buy now to lock in
rates before they go higher. Fortunately, residential building remains well matched to
population growth, so there are no inventories
to work off when demand does wane.

ELLE R COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINIST RATION

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Consumer Spending Soars
Real Retail Sales Growth, AZ

REVISIONS TO
PERSONAL INCOME
SHOW STRONGER 1998
At the end of July, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis released revisions to its estimates for
Arizona’s personal income. In 1998, personal
income totaled $108.086 billion, an upward
revision of nearly $426 million. In percentage
terms, personal income grew by 7.9% in
1998 rather than 7.5% originally reported.
(Nationwide, personal income increased
by 5.0% during 1998.) Revisions also show
accelerating growth as the year progressed
(Exhibit 2). As the year began, year-over-year
growth registered 7.2%. By the fourth quarter,
the gain was 8.5%, the strongest growth since
the second quarter of 1996. These new estimates include unemployment insurance data
through the fourth quarter, 1998. Year-over-

I N S I D E
2000/2001
OUTLOOK LUNCHEON ..............6
FORECAST TABLES ..................7
ARIZONA
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ..........8

EXHIBIT 2
Incomes Are Rising Rapidly

EXHIBIT 3
Commercial Awards Plummet

EXHIBIT 4
Vacancies Low but Rising

Personal Income Growth, Arizona

Real Nonresidential Building, Arizona
Millions of 1992 dollars, annual rate

Office Vacancy Rates (%), Phoenix & Tucson

year growth for the first quarter 1999 of 7.6%
is based on little actual data and will likely be
revised upward. With strong income growth,
it is not hard to see how consumers have
been able to continue their spending ways.

Vacancy rates in commercial sectors are
heading up, although vacancies remain well
below those experienced earlier this decade.
Data from CB Richard Ellis shows that Metro
Phoenix office vacancies at the end of the
second quarter stand at 10.6%, up from 9.5%
at the end of last year. Office vacancies also
increased in Tucson—to 9.7% from 8.9%
(Exhibit 4). Forecasts from the Metro
Phoenix Blue Chip, published by the College
of Business at Arizona State University, predict
that some three million square feet of new
office space will be delivered in metro Phoenix
during 1999 while the market will absorb 1.75
million square feet. That will boost office
vacancies into the 11-12% range by year-end.
For industrial markets, vacancy rates are
rising in the Phoenix area, but falling in metro
Tucson. At the end of the second quarter,
vacancies in Phoenix stood at 8.1%, up from
7.0% at year-end, while rates in Tucson are
at 7.0%, down from 7.2%.

Arizona’s job market grew at a much slower
pace in the second quarter, up only 3.5%
from the prior year. That compares to 4.7%
growth registered for all of 1998. Most of
the slowdown is in the metro Phoenix area,
where growth registered six percent only a
year ago. It is not clear, though, whether this
reflects sagging demand for labor or whether
a shortage of labor is constraining job expansion. Indicators of demand such as help
wanted advertising and a quarterly survey of
hiring intentions conducted by Manpower, Inc.
give conflicting signals. Help wanted advertising in metro Phoenix remains at record
levels for this expansion while the Manpower
survey shows a big drop to 15 from 35 only
two quarters ago. The latter survey, however,
shows a rise in hiring intentions in the Tucson
area to record a level of 35.
Then again, the employment survey could
be giving false signals. Estimates of current
job levels are derived from a non-random
voluntary sample survey of employers that has
a tendency to undercount the number of
jobs when the economy is growing rapidly.
According to this data, most of the recent
slowdown is explained by virtually no growth
in manufacturing and by very weak growth in
services and government. During the second
quarter, government payrolls are only 2.2%
higher than one year earlier. That seems unreasonably low given continuing high levels
of population growth. In June, services employment was only 2.8% higher than one year
ago, and that represents the smallest gain
since early 1992. This sector, because of its
size and new business formation, historically
accounts for the lion’s share of upward adjustments to previously published figures.
This could be happening again, meaning

HAS THE LONG-AWAITED
SLOWDOWN BEGUN?
Arizona’s economy continues to zip along,
but growth is not well balanced. Agriculture,
manufacturing and mining have lagged. Overall job growth is finally slowing–rapidly in the
Phoenix-Mesa metro area, and commercial
real estate construction is waning.
Although residential markets remain at all
time record highs, commercial markets are
slowing. Industry analysts around the country
now believe that commercial real estate construction has passed its peak for this business
cycle. According to data for Arizona compiled
by the F. W. Dodge Division of McGraw Hill,
non-residential building awards have plummeted in recent months from a $2.7 billion
annual rate to $1.7 billion (Exhibit 3).
The retreat comes from very high levels,
and many projects still remain under construction. As those projects are built out,
construction activity in the aggregate will fall
off dramatically. Nearly all of the downturn
is in the Phoenix-Mesa metro area, which
has seen the birth of a number of huge new
projects in recent years including giant malls,
sports parks, industrial facilities and high
rise offices and hotels. The downturn may
also reflect last fall’s disruption in financial
markets, during which the flow of financing
dried up for commercial projects. Now that
money is once again flowing, it is possible
that this indicator could turn back up in
coming months.
PAGE TWO

TWO RECENTLY RELEASED
STUDIES CONCLUDE THAT
ARIZONA AND ITS
MAJOR METRO AREAS
HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
DEVELOPING THEIR
HIGH TECHNOLOGY BASE
AND ARE WELL POSITIONED
TO EXCEL IN THE
“NEW ECONOMY.”

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 5
Leading Copper-Producing Mines in the United States, 1997
Capacity
(000s metric tons)

Rank

Mine

County, State

Operator

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Morenci
Bingham Canyon
Chino
Sierrita
Ray
Mission Complex
Bagdad
San Manuel
Pinto Valley
Inspiration
Tyrone
Robinson
Continental
Continental
Flambeau
Tohono
Miami
Silver Bell

Greenlee, AZ
Salt Lake, UT
Grant, NM
Pima, AZ
Pinal, AZ
Pima, AZ
Yavapai, AZ
Pinal, AZ
Gila, AZ
Gila, AZ
Grant, NM
White Pine, NV
Silver Bow, MT
Grant, NM
Rusk, WI
Pinal, AZ
Gila, AZ
Pima, AZ

Phelps Dodge Corp.
Kennecott Utah Copper Corp.
Phelps Dodge Corp.
Cyprus Amax Minerals Co.
ASARCO Incorporated
ASARCO Incorporated
Cyprus Amax Minerals Co.
BHP Copper Co.
BHP Copper Co.
Cyprus Amax Minerals Co.
Phelps Dodge Corp. and Burro Chief Copper Co.
BHP Copper Co.
Montana Resources Inc.
Cobre Mining Co.
Kennecott Utah Copper Corp.
Cyprus Amax Minerals Co.
BHP Copper Co.
ASARCO Incorporated

Total (98% of U.S. mine production)

that current measures of overall job growth
are understated.

CONSOLIDATION IN
COPPER MINING INDUSTRY
In July, building imbalances in world
copper markets brought downsizing and
layoffs for U.S. copper producers. Prior to
recent cutbacks, the U.S. accounted for 18%
of world copper production and Arizona (1.4
million tons in 1997) accounted for roughly
two-thirds of U.S. production. Exhibit 5
shows major U.S. mining properties.
Problems materialized in 1997 when
inventories of refined copper began to grow
as the result of increased supply and soft demand. Supply grew as new mining properties
were developed in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa and
other countries around the world. Demand
for copper weakened as the Asian financial
crisis precipitated recessions across that
region. Inventories surged from roughly
150,000 metric tons of refined copper to
650,000 in early 1999 (Exhibit 6). Rising
inventories pushed the price of copper
(here we use the London Metal Exchange)
downward from nearly $1.20 to 61 cents
per pound. In inflation-adjusted terms, this
represents the lowest price this century!
As the price fell, Arizona production
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

495
310
162
143
125
115
115
147
76
73
70
70
50
35
18
15
12
12
2,043

remained near record levels until a year ago
as shown in Exhibit 7. In early 1998, Cyprus
Amax cut production at its Bagdad and Sierrita
Mines by 27,000 tons. BHP Copper Corp.
halted its copper sulfide operations at Pinto
Valley, laying off 447 employees. As a result,
employment in Arizona’s copper mining
industry fell by nearly 1,000 during 1998.
Then in June of this year, BHP announced
the closing of all North American copper
mining operations. Its Pinto Valley Mine west
of Miami and San Manuel operations northeast of Tucson will be closed by the end of
this summer. Some 2,600 jobs are involved.
Shortly after the BHP announcement, Phelps
Dodge cut 250 jobs with the closing of a concentrator at its Morenci mine, and Asarco
cut 150 at its Mission mine complex south of
Tucson. These cuts will reduce Arizona mine
production by roughly 400 million pounds
annually, or about 15% of Arizona production.
In mid-July Asarco Inc. and Cyprus Amax
Minerals Co. announced they were merging
to form one of the largest copper mining
companies in the world. With capacity to
produce some 2 billion pounds of copper
annually, the company will produce eight
percent of the Western world’s refined copper.
Arizona mines owned by the combined company include Sierrita, Ray, Mission Complex,
Bagdad, Inspiration, Tohono and Silverbell.
Corporate headquarters will be based in New

EXHIBIT 6
Copper Inventories Surge
and Prices Plunge
U.S. Refined Copper Inventories
and LME Cash Price

York, although its copper operations will be
run from Tempe.
Then in August, Phelps Dodge offered to buy
both Asarco and Cyprus Amax. The resulting
company would be the largest single copper
producer in the world, including the current
leader, Chile’s state-owned Codelco. Output
would represent slightly less than 20% of
global copper production.
Recent cutbacks and consolidation in
the industry will not solve the oversupply of
copper in world markets. On a positive note,
demand from Asia is increasing as that region
recovers. Coupled with new innovations that
use copper rather than aluminum in integrated circuits and expanded usage in autos,
demand is expected to increase by five percent
or more annually. However, production is
expected to grow by even greater amounts
as new properties are developed around the
world. More cutbacks among U.S. producers
could be forthcoming.
Arizona’s economy will easily absorb
displaced workers, and the impacts of
recent closings should be small. With labor
in short supply, workers will be able to find
jobs quickly in other industries such as
construction, manufacturing and utilities.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely they will find jobs
that pay as well, as mining offered the highest
wages of any industry in Arizona. The average
wage per worker in mining was $45,400 last
year, compared to $42,000 in manufacturing,
$36,500 in utilities and $31,000 in construction. In 1998, before these cuts, some 12,900
workers (including 2,400 non-copper employees) earned $580 million in wages and
salaries statewide. This represents less than
one percent of the total across all industries.
PA GE TH RE E

EXHIBIT 7
AZ Copper Production
Near Record Level

EXHIBIT 8
Projections to the Year 2025

Copper Prices (LME Cash Price)
and Arizona Mine Production

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Arizona
W&S Employment (000’s)

1,795

2,198

2,459

2,746

3,049

3,361

3,678

Population (000’s)

4,297

4,955

5,507

6,086

6,685

7,291

7,901

Personal Income ($ millions)

86,479

121,869

159,656

208,268

269,687

348,905

450,246

Retail Sales ($millions)

37,777

50,277

63,112

79,700

100,570

126,517

159,134

Phoenix-Mesa MA
W&S Employment (000’s)

1,225

1,534

1,709

1,911

2,121

2,344

2,582

Population (000’s)

2,662

3,126

3,508

3,918

4,344

4,783

5,235

Personal Income ($ millions)

58,249

86,194

118,142

158,537

210,376

278,450

368,083

Retail Sales ($millions)

24,981

34,688

45,961

59,844

77,232

99,651

128,980

W&S Employment (000’s)

303

349

381

416

454

490

522

Population (000’s)

758

852

927

1,006

1,086

1,160

1,222

14,616

20,006

26,776

35,061

45,693

59,274

76,334

6,302

8,108

10,279

12,914

16,194

20,206

25,084

Tucson Metro Area

Additional effects on the economic statistics
that we monitor include employment levels,
unemployment, sales and wages. Since the
San Manuel mine is in Pinal county, which in
turn is part of the Phoenix-Mesa metro area,
the number of metro Phoenix employees in
mining was cut nearly in half in July, falling
by 2,200. However, a large number of those
miners live and shop in the metro Tucson
area, which will feel the brunt of any economic effects. Unemployment increased by
600 in the Phoenix-Mesa area in July while
Tucson’s unemployed jumped by 2,400. The
impact on retail sales will fall most heavily
on Tucson, although the effect will be small
as most displaced workers are expected to
find work rather quickly. The largest impact
may be to constrain wage increases in the
construction industry. During the past two
years, construction wages have increased
on average of 4.5%. With increased supply
of workers from the mining industry, wages
are likely to move up at only half that rate
during the coming year.

THE 25-YEAR OUTLOOK
Arizona has consistently been among the
top two or three states for population growth
during the 1900’s and there’s plenty of additional growth on the horizon. However, the
pace will be slower than during the past five
years. Our BASE forecast projects that during
the five-year period from 1999-2004:
• Arizona’s population will increase by 566,300 or
111,250 per year. For the entire decade of the 1990’s
some 1.235 million new residents will be added.
That’s a larger gain than in the 1980s (989,000)
or during the 1970s (944,000). By the year 2000,
PA GE F OU R

Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($millions)

nearly 5.0 million persons will reside in the state.
Arizona will gain at least two and perhaps three
additional seats in Congress when new Census
figures are available.
• Some 242,500 new jobs will be created, or 48,500
per year. Job growth will average 2.2% (compared
to 3.9% during the 1980s and 5.0% from 1994-99).
• Personal income will grow by an average 5.6%
annually, and will exceed $150 billion in the
year 2004.
• Average annual wages will rise at a 3.2% annual
rate and approach $36,500 by 2004.
• Per capita income will rise to over $28,000,
an annual increase of 3.4%.

By the year 2025, Arizona will have added
nearly three million residents, and population
will reach 7.9 million. That’s about as large
as North Carolina and Georgia (the nation’s
10th and 11th largest states) are today.
Population growth varies significantly over
the business cycle. In the recession of the
early 90’s, Arizona’s population increased
by less than 90,000 per year. During the past
five years, annual increase have run in the
130-135,000 range. The forecast calls for
significant slowing in the first few years of the
new millennium into the 105-110,000 range
before returning to “trend growth” of roughly
120-125,000 for the remainder of the forecast
interval. Arizona’s resident population should
break the five million mark in 2001, six
million in 2010, and seven million in 2018
(Exhibit 8).

“NEW ECONOMY”
AND HIGH TECH INDEXES
Two recently released studies conclude
that Arizona and its major metro areas have
done a good job developing their high technology base and are well positioned to excel
in the “new economy.” The first, from the
Progressive Policy Institute, titled “The State
New Economy Index” ranks Arizona 10th
on a composite of five factors: knowledge
jobs, globalization, economic dynamism
and competition, transformation to a digital
economy, and technological innovation
capacity (Exhibit 9).
Arizona received its highest rankings on the
number of fast-growing “gazelle” companies,
commercial Internet domains, job churn
(a measure of new business start ups and
business failures), and the export orientation
of manufacturing (Exhibit 10).
According to the authors, low costs (and
low wages), tax abatements or other financial
incentives no longer drive growth. “In the new
economy, states’ economic success will increasingly be determined by how effectively
they can spur technological innovation, entrepreneurship, education, specialized skills,
and the transition of all organizations—public
and private—from bureaucratic hierarchies
to learning networks1.” The study also offers
policy strategies for states:
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 9
Arizona Ranks High on State “New Economy Index”

100th - 76th Percentile
75th - 51st Percentile
50th - 26th Percentile
25th - 1st Percentile

1. Co-invest in the skills of the workforce
2. Co-invest in an infrastructure for innovation
3. Promote innovation and customer-oriented
government

EXHIBIT 10
AZ’s New Economy Index
Ranking by Component
Component

EXHIBIT 11
Technology Production
Center Rankings

Rank

Milken Institute Tech-Poles Western Region
http://milken-inst.org/mod30/summary.html

4. Foster the transformation to a digital economy

“Gazelle” Jobs

3

5. Foster civic collaboration

Commercial Internet Domains

4

Rank

City

#

Job Churning

5

1

San Jose, CA

10

Export Focus in Manufacturing

9

3

LA-Long Beach

5

These rankings show that Arizona is well
positioned to participate in the 21st century
economy.
The second study, “America’s High-Tech
Economy: Growth, Development and Risks
for Metropolitan Areas2,” finds the PhoenixMesa metro area to be the 12th largest
technology production center (or Tech-Pole).
The rankings are based on an area’s hightech concentration (or location quotient)
and its share of national high-tech output.
Tucson ranks 40th. The Phoenix area has a
concentration in only one industry, while
Tucson has five-such industries. Rankings
for western cities are in Exhibit 11.
The study also offers rankings that show
how well a community has developed its hightech industries (Exhibit 12). The measure
used is the percentage of a local economy’s
total output that is attributable to high-tech.
Flagstaff ranks 20th with Tucson a close
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

Educated Workforce

12

5

Seattle-Bell.-Ever.

6

High Tech Jobs

12

7

Albuquerque, NM

3

Venture Capital

13

12

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ

1

Digital Government

13

13

Orange County, CA

10

Online Population

14

14

Oakland, CA

8

Patents

16

17

San Diego, CA

9

Overall U.S. Ranking

10

19

Denver, CO

3

22

San Francisco, CA

5

22nd, both with 17%. Phoenix-Mesa ranks
30th with 13%.
This study notes that “costs of doing business measures (tax rates, incentives, wages,
land and office space costs, energy costs,
capital cost and perception of the business
climate) are still important.” However, even
more important for high-tech companies
are “a trained workforce, close proximity to
research institutions, a network of suppliers,

24

Boise City, ID

2

26

Portland-Vancouver

2

27

Boulder-Longmont

9

37

Sacramento, CA

6

40

Tucson, AZ

5

42

Colorado Springs, CO

9

# is the number of industries with concentration (LQs > 1)

PA G E F IV E

EXHIBIT 12
Arizona’s Metros Rank High
High Tech Importance Western Metros
(as % of Total Output)
Rank

City

%

2

San Jose, CA

37

3

Albuquerque, NM

32

6

Boulder-Longmont

26

7

Boise City, ID

24

9

Richland, WA

22

11

Seattle, WA

19

14

Pocatello, ID

18

20

Flagstaff, AZ

17

21

Colorado Springs, CO

17

22

Tucson, AZ

17

29

Provo-Orem, UT

14

30

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ

13

32

Oakland, CA

13

33

Orange County, CA

13

34

Denver, CO

13

35

San Diego, CA

12

access to venture capital, and a good quality
of life. [In] the age of human capital, firms’
location decisions will be increasingly based
upon quality-of-life factors that are important
to attracting and retaining this most vital
economic asset.”
Both of these studies show Arizona to
be well positioned for the new millennium,
even though the next two to three years are
expected to bring much slower growth.$
1 “The New State Economy Index: Benchmarking Economic Transformation
in the States,” Progressive Policy Institute, July 1999,
http://207.158.225.143/states/summary.html
2 “America’s High-Tech Economy: Growth, Development and Risks
for Metropolitan Areas,” The Milken Institute, July 13, 1999,
http://milken-inst.org/mod30/summary.html

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Estes/Kaufman and Broad
Merrill Lynch
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S WEST Communications
U S WEST Dex
PA GE S IX

2000:
It’s finally here.
The University of Arizona Eller College of Business and Public Administration’s:

2000/2001
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK LUNCHEON

Presentations by
Marshall J. Vest
Economic and Business
Research Program
Gerald J. Swanson
Economics Department
Mark Zupan
Dean of the Eller College of
Business and Public Administration

Friday, December 17, 1999
Noon-2:00 p.m.
Westin La Paloma
$40 per person; $375 per table of 10*
Reservations required.
Call 621-2930 for information
and reservations
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1998
107,738.3
7.6
22,908.4
4.5
45,513.3
5.9
4,703.0
2.9
93.1
2,078.4
4.7
371.9
5.4
141.6
7.5
217.4
4.8
1,706.5
4.6
498.9
3.4
628.6
5.4

1999
115,058.4
6.8
23,801.2
3.9
49,187.8
8.1
4,834.1
2.8
87.5
2,157.3
3.8
376.8
1.3
149.8
5.8
215.9
-0.7
1,780.5
4.3
515.4
3.3
664.6
5.7

2000
121,868.6
5.9
24,593.0
3.3
50,277.1
2.2
4,955.4
2.5
73.0
2,197.7
1.9
372.3
-1.2
144.6
-3.5
217.9
0.9
1,825.4
2.5
528.5
2.5
682.1
2.6

2001
128,397.8
5.4
25,365.1
3.1
51,868.8
3.2
5,062.0
2.2
65.3
2,237.5
1.8
370.5
-0.5
137.6
-4.9
222.9
2.3
1,867.0
2.3
542.8
2.7
700.5
2.7

2002
135,190.2
5.3
26,158.3
3.1
54,533.5
5.1
5,168.2
2.1
68.1
2,281.8
2.0
370.6
0.0
134.8
-2.0
225.8
1.3
1,911.2
2.4
559.3
3.0
719.3
2.7

2003
143,047.6
5.8
27,108.8
3.6
57,458.5
5.4
5,276.8
2.1
71.6
2,337.6
2.4
376.8
1.7
136.7
1.4
230.2
1.9
1,960.7
2.6
578.1
3.4
739.0
2.7

2004
151,414.5
5.8
28,089.9
3.6
60,354.9
5.0
5,390.4
2.2
75.9
2,399.8
2.7
386.3
2.5
141.3
3.3
235.0
2.1
2,013.5
2.7
598.2
3.5
759.8
2.8

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
75,142.3
9.5
25,448.9
5.7
31,448.5
7.3
2,952.7
3.6
75.2
1,457.4
5.4
278.8
6.0
106.1
11.5
166.6
3.2
1,178.7
5.2
353.0
4.2
455.9
5.6

1999
80,794.3
7.5
26,503.6
4.1
33,713.3
7.2
3,048.4
3.2
66.5
1,509.3
3.6
277.5
-0.5
110.5
4.2
162.0
-2.8
1,231.8
4.5
367.9
4.2
477.0
4.6

2000
86,194.3
6.7
27,572.4
4.0
34,688.0
2.9
3,126.1
2.5
47.5
1,534.1
1.6
274.4
-1.1
104.5
-5.5
166.0
2.5
1,259.7
2.3
376.2
2.3
484.7
1.6

2001
91,855.9
6.6
28,713.0
4.1
35,981.1
3.7
3,199.1
2.3
42.4
1,562.6
1.9
274.7
0.1
99.0
-5.3
171.9
3.5
1,287.9
2.2
385.6
2.5
494.6
2.0

2002
97,749.1
6.4
29,859.1
4.0
38,586.9
7.2
3,273.7
2.3
43.9
1,594.1
2.0
274.5
-0.1
96.2
-2.8
174.4
1.4
1,319.6
2.5
397.4
3.0
505.4
2.2

2003
104,254.0
6.7
31,119.5
4.2
41,246.5
6.9
3,350.1
2.3
45.6
1,630.2
2.3
278.0
1.3
96.6
0.4
177.5
1.8
1,352.2
2.5
409.9
3.1
515.3
2.0

2004
111,120.3
6.6
32,409.0
4.1
43,683.8
5.9
3,428.7
2.3
47.3
1,669.6
2.4
284.2
2.2
99.6
3.1
180.7
1.8
1,385.4
2.5
422.0
3.0
526.3
2.1

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
17,418.9
6.2
21,451.9
3.9
7,260.5
4.7
812.0
2.1
12.5
326.3
3.5
51.4
2.9
20.1
3.7
29.1
3.0
274.9
3.6
70.3
1.6
104.7
5.4

1999
18,757.9
7.7
22,529.4
5.0
7,733.0
6.5
832.6
2.5
16.3
342.4
4.9
56.3
9.5
21.3
6.2
33.0
13.3
286.1
4.1
72.5
3.1
109.7
4.8

2000
20,005.5
6.7
23,491.3
4.3
8,108.0
4.9
851.6
2.3
14.6
349.3
2.0
57.5
2.2
21.9
2.8
33.8
2.3
291.8
2.0
74.6
2.9
112.0
2.1

2001
21,219.9
6.1
24,491.4
4.3
8,479.9
4.6
866.4
1.7
10.2
354.4
1.4
57.5
0.0
21.6
-1.6
34.1
0.9
296.9
1.7
76.3
2.2
114.5
2.2

2002
22,489.1
6.0
25,539.1
4.3
8,934.9
5.4
880.6
1.6
9.5
359.7
1.5
57.5
0.0
21.2
-1.8
34.4
0.9
302.2
1.8
78.0
2.3
117.1
2.3

2003
23,873.6
6.2
26,662.6
4.4
9,381.4
5.0
895.4
1.7
10.2
366.5
1.9
57.9
0.7
21.2
0.1
34.7
0.9
308.6
2.1
80.0
2.5
119.9
2.4

2004
25,315.7
6.0
27,790.8
4.2
9,827.4
4.8
910.9
1.7
10.9
373.6
1.9
58.7
1.4
21.7
2.0
35.0
0.8
314.9
2.0
82.0
2.6
122.6
2.2

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona.

AR IZON A 'S E CON O MY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

62,875
52,975
9,900
15.7

72,050
53,450
18,600
25.8

78,750
51,550
27,200
34.5

75,275
50,000
25,275
33.6

74,525
48,250
26,275
35.3

4.5
5.6
2.6
-1.8

8.1
9.9
3.4
-4.7

43,200
n/a
2,575
2,350
1,825
12,050
1,250
8,150
15,000

43,225
n/a
2,700
2,350
1,800
11,800
1,250
8,225
15,100

42,300
n/a
2,750
2,375
1,800
11,175
1,200
8,000
15,000

40,375
n/a
2,800
2,350
1,800
11,000
1,175
7,875
13,375

38,850
n/a
2,925
2,275
1,725
10,625
1,125
7,850
12,325

6.4
...
17.0
4.6
-4.2
0.2
0.0
3.0
15.2

9.1
...
9.4
15.2
4.0
1.7
-2.3
-2.6
26.6

96,612
75,457
10,444
10,711
10,225
16,751

84,887
63,854
10,459
10,574
7,533
13,708

71,893
55,791
8,244
7,858
6,052
14,857

73,445
59,189
7,414
6,842
5,920
17,978

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.9
10.4
7.7
7.7
3.8
5.7

6.4
6.0
7.6
8.0
22.0
-1.1

12,980
7,750
3,783
1,447

20,210
9,093
1,971
9,146

14,238
8,428
3,865
1,945

24,213
9,805
3,325
11,083

12,423
4,731
3,272
4,420

-7.5
-43.9
46.2
59.9

-11.5
7.3
-49.3
29.4

97
97

103
103

97
97

107
107

54
54

-35.7
-30.8

22.0
23.3

71,950
68,200
3,750
5.2

71,700
68,350
3,350
4.7

72,400
68,875
3,525
4.9

73,450
69,875
3,575
4.9

73,700
70,325
3,375
4.6

7.2
7.2
5.5
-1.6

7.1
7.6
-2.0
-8.7

41,950
n/a
3,200
3,700
1,950
13,400
1,425
10,200
7,900

42,575
n/a
3,200
3,700
2,000
13,575
1,500
10,375
8,050

42,550
n/a
3,275
3,675
2,000
13,425
1,525
10,475
8,000

42,275
n/a
3,325
3,675
2,025
13,275
1,525
10,550
7,725

42,175
n/a
3,425
3,675
2,000
13,225
1,525
10,650
7,500

3.5
...
5.4
5.0
-2.4
3.1
0.0
4.4
3.8

2.2
...
7.4
7.0
-0.8
4.8
0.6
1.6
-4.0

103,483
78,067
13,213
12,203
11,649
24,804

100,572
72,021
13,847
14,704
10,475
24,967

104,817
77,283
13,555
13,979
10,766
22,987

102,616
77,590
12,861
12,165
10,526
22,812

...
...
...
...
...
...

10.1
10.4
11.2
7.0
3.2
12.1

7.6
10.4
8.2
-8.0
2.8
27.3

35,211
18,246
7,107
9,858

29,063
16,660
4,855
7,548

24,538
18,136
2,628
3,774

20,458
17,476
1,805
1,177

23,285
17,584
2,438
3,263

-11.0
19.1
44.6
-66.4

-15.4
15.9
-41.4
-44.8

201
199

171
167

189
189

189
189

178
168

14.1
7.7

12.1
13.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

52,775
48,675
4,100
7.8

52,875
49,200
3,675
7.0

53,250
49,350
3,900
7.3

54,450
50,150
4,300
7.9

55,575
50,550
5,025
9.0

4.8
6.8
-12.2
-16.2

1.2
3.0
-14.4
-15.3

41,750
n/a
2,150
2,200
2,450
11,600
975
9,225
13,150

41,850
n/a
2,125
2,225
2,450
11,625
1,000
9,350
13,075

42,250
n/a
2,175
2,225
2,450
11,675
1,025
9,500
13,200

42,125
n/a
2,250
2,300
2,425
11,475
1,025
9,775
12,875

42,200
n/a
2,500
2,275
2,350
11,500
1,000
10,000
12,575

5.5
...
20.5
9.6
1.1
1.8
-2.4
8.4
5.0

0.9
...
5.4
7.0
1.7
0.2
2.8
3.1
-2.1

82,103
60,937
9,253
11,913
11,373
16,981

80,613
60,874
8,825
10,914
7,775
15,714

79,702
58,705
9,474
11,523
8,874
17,461

77,471
59,514
8,720
9,237
7,993
18,052

...
...
...
...
...
...

10.5
6.3
12.5
45.1
39.9
4.2

6.5
4.6
-0.3
31.4
47.8
18.2

9,799
8,488
833
478

10,282
7,043
1,200
2,039

13,609
7,143
5,900
566

11,202
8,945
1,598
659

19,732
6,430
1,824
11,478

-14.5
-16.3
186.3
-22.3

20.8
-2.4
81.3
46.4

96
92

91
91

93
81

86
86

78
67

-9.3
-22.1

-3.5
7.0

33,200
30,525
2,675
8.1

33,925
31,500
2,425
7.1

33,850
31,450
2,400
7.1

34,500
32,000
2,500
7.2

34,275
31,800
2,475
7.2

2.9
4.1
-10.0
-12.6

0.2
0.5
-3.1
-3.3

25,450
n/a
1,975
n/a
825
5,625
n/a
4,450
7,425

25,600
n/a
2,050
n/a
800
5,575
n/a
4,375
7,650

25,725
n/a
2,050
n/a
800
5,675
n/a
4,475
7,550

25,825
n/a
1,975
n/a
800
5,900
n/a
4,575
7,325

25,425
n/a
1,950
n/a
775
5,900
n/a
4,550
7,050

2.3
...
5.4
...
-11.4
3.1
...
6.4
2.9

-1.6
...
13.1
...
-5.0
0.1
...
2.0
-7.1

41,132
31,944
4,962
4,226
4,035
10,492

42,456
31,800
5,534
5,122
3,649
10,788

45,525
33,913
5,718
5,894
4,539
10,325

45,140
34,288
5,896
4,956
4,288
13,691

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.3
0.8
-2.2
21.2
16.8
8.8

0.8
-0.7
0.7
12.8
26.9
1.1

13,693
7,290
5,153
1,250

9,908
5,195
4,250
463

13,332
5,190
7,885
257

9,496
7,039
51
2,406

9,977
3,821
1,775
4,381

30.1
-30.9
-17.2
...

-5.0
-11.9
-12.2
46.8

57
57

44
44

54
52

51
49

35
35

-27.1
-27.1

-13.5
-6.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY

PAGE NI NE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

50,800
43,525
7,275
14.3

51,050
44,600
6,450
12.6

52,250
45,725
6,525
12.5

52,975
44,450
8,525
16.1

53,600
44,750
8,850
16.5

2.2
4.1
-6.3
-8.4

-0.3
0.4
-4.6
-4.3

43,175
n/a
1,775
1,475
2,425
7,325
1,100
7,100
21,000

43,650
n/a
1,850
1,450
2,425
7,750
1,150
7,100
20,975

44,675
n/a
1,975
1,500
2,450
7,900
1,150
7,450
21,325

42,700
n/a
1,975
1,500
2,475
8,125
1,150
7,550
18,975

42,675
n/a
1,925
1,500
2,550
8,125
1,150
7,525
18,950

2.7
...
-3.7
0.0
2.0
5.2
-4.2
8.3
1.1

-1.7
...
-1.5
-2.6
2.5
3.4
-0.7
-0.4
-4.4

55,613
43,323
4,025
8,265
7,891
10,285

58,723
44,081
5,325
9,317
6,638
10,574

65,628
49,519
6,042
10,067
7,753
9,676

74,164
58,377
6,857
8,930
7,727
12,920

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.4
11.1
9.0
24.6
20.1
30.4

6.9
8.2
4.9
0.2
11.2
38.8

9,452
5,157
2,295
2,000

8,146
6,227
373
1,546

11,770
10,397
464
909

11,565
6,019
1,500
4,046

22,372
9,077
7,500
5,795

35.6
12.3
4.9
359.9

0.8
38.5
-28.4
-24.6

61
61

61
61

100
72

62
62

80
80

5.3
5.3

27.3
41.0

125,375
118,975
6,400
5.1

127,750
122,250
5,500
4.3

128,325
122,500
5,825
4.5

132,425
125,600
6,825
5.2

133,225
126,075
7,150
5.4

5.6
6.3
-5.3
-10.3

4.1
5.1
-12.1
-15.7

101,925
1,025
6,700
6,600
3,150
26,000
3,150
28,050
27,250

103,175
1,050
6,750
6,500
3,275
26,575
3,325
28,700
27,000

103,450
1,050
7,000
6,500
3,375
26,950
3,350
29,350
25,875

104,325
1,075
7,175
6,600
3,475
27,400
3,375
30,175
25,050

101,625
1,050
7,275
6,350
3,550
26,725
2,975
29,050
24,650

4.9
7.7
8.2
-1.9
3.6
2.6
-5.6
3.5
12.2

3.8
5.2
3.6
0.4
3.4
2.3
5.6
6.4
3.2

177,412
130,407
29,896
17,109
16,333
41,425

182,359
129,945
32,460
19,954
14,215
45,199

204,124
144,630
37,404
22,090
17,012
41,606

213,020
155,037
39,084
18,899
16,353
55,052

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.5
10.4
12.0
34.8
29.9
14.8

5.5
5.5
6.8
3.0
15.3
16.6

50,150
29,568
14,359
6,223

50,977
24,270
14,518
12,189

42,452
30,636
6,289
5,527

73,723
34,674
14,131
24,918

46,152
34,231
6,793
5,128

-9.1
-11.0
-25.1
57.8

10.5
-2.8
-6.9
112.1

255
246

243
223

243
235

421
299

366
258

23.2
-7.5

20.5
11.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

1,573.0
1,529.0
44.0
3.0

1,578.5
1,535.5
43.0
3.1

1,587.6
1,539.6
48.0
3.2

1,597.3
1,546.9
50.4
3.1

1,602.1
1,551.1
51.0
3.0

5.5
5.2
15.3
20.0

6.9
6.7
12.0
8.5

1,503.4
5.5
111.5
170.4
130.8
39.6
78.7
365.8
91.5
274.3
122.3
457.9
191.3

1,505.0
5.6
111.4
170.4
131.1
39.3
78.9
365.7
91.6
274.1
122.7
459.8
190.5

1,508.6
5.6
112.0
170.4
131.2
39.2
79.2
364.8
91.8
273.0
122.7
461.4
192.5

1,495.2
5.5
114.7
170.7
131.1
39.6
79.6
362.3
92.1
270.2
123.2
464.3
174.9

1,485.1
3.3
115.6
170.2
130.9
39.3
79.3
360.1
91.8
268.3
123.9
462.9
169.8

3.5
-41.1
8.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
6.4
3.6
3.8
3.5
4.9
2.8
5.2

4.4
-8.8
10.1
1.6
1.8
0.9
7.7
3.9
4.9
3.5
8.0
3.4
4.2

3,006,653
2,128,598
367,416
363,827
146,812
658,683

2,915,567
2,013,871
374,347
364,739
162,611
662,643

2,903,204
2,040,822
366,357
335,152
160,873
626,558

2,939,511
2,133,639
357,766
317,539
130,568
705,431

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.4
10.8
2.3
7.5
11.0
5.8

8.6
9.4
6.9
8.2
2.9
15.5

749,011
523,048
142,544
83,419

687,959
490,740
88,042
109,177

779,470
544,827
195,945
38,698

752,005
482,756
202,101
67,148

722,577
470,391
124,666
127,520

4.4
-4.4
-13.4
127.1

-7.3
3.5
-37.1
22.2

4,777
4,306
71
400

4,726
3,578
44
1,104

4,259
3,448
18
793

5,138
4,061
16
1,061

3,761
3,285
34
442

-16.9
-0.4
-50.0
-61.9

7.4
11.6
76.0
-7.3

751,107
4,910
152,975

816,448
5,142
158,780

878,294
5,601
156,810

849,205
5,258
161,507

921,472
5,881
156,686

23.3
17.1
5.3

20.4
14.0
5.5

3,142,807
49,034

2,851,375
46,949

2,849,757
47,835

2,836,906
46,372

...
...

4.3
5.7

4.7
3.3

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

2,940.4
7.0
12.4
5.5
18.6

2,964.8
7.0
12.5
5.5
17.4

2,988.7
7.1
12.7
5.5
16.7

3,012.6
7.2
12.8
5.6
16.7

3,036.5
7.3
12.9
5.6
16.6

3.3
4.2
3.4
2.4
-10.5

3.4
3.4
2.8
2.1
-10.0

74,450
55,872
3,925
-147
12,184
10,466
25,320

75,967
57,055
3,993
-149
12,422
10,631
25,622

77,326
58,128
4,056
-148
12,613
10,789
25,873

78,675
59,196
4,120
-146
12,800
10,944
26,116

80,088
60,308
4,185
-146
13,007
11,104
26,375

7.6
7.9
6.6
0.6
6.8
6.1
4.2

8.5
8.9
7.5
-1.0
8.0
6.3
4.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

AR IZON A 'S ECON O MY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

389.6
380.2
9.4
2.5

391.0
381.9
9.1
2.6

389.5
379.2
10.3
2.9

394.9
383.8
11.1
2.7

391.7
378.2
13.5
3.2

5.8
5.2
25.2
23.1

5.4
5.8
-7.6
-10.5

337.8
2.1
21.4
29.4
23.5
5.9
13.4
72.7
11.0
61.7
13.3
110.1
75.4

337.6
2.0
21.6
29.6
23.6
6.0
13.5
72.2
10.9
61.3
13.4
110.1
75.2

335.1
2.1
21.6
29.8
23.8
6.0
13.6
71.7
11.0
60.7
13.4
110.0
72.9

334.3
2.1
22.0
30.5
24.6
5.9
13.6
71.0
11.0
60.0
13.4
110.1
71.6

326.1
1.9
22.3
30.9
24.9
6.0
13.6
70.0
10.9
59.1
13.4
109.4
64.6

3.1
-13.6
9.3
6.2
6.9
3.4
0.7
1.9
0.9
2.1
0.0
2.8
3.4

3.2
-6.4
6.9
3.1
3.4
1.6
-1.4
1.8
0.5
2.0
6.3
5.4
1.3

681,576
465,313
90,912
84,607
40,745
106,998

656,735
437,480
92,626
80,304
46,325
107,772

671,232
463,711
90,649
78,904
37,968
117,839

681,087
478,368
88,524
74,286
39,909
136,817

...
...
...
...
...
...

15.4
17.7
3.2
10.5
28.8
27.2

6.7
7.7
5.4
5.1
2.1
17.2

79,419
53,841
23,565
2,013

104,077
56,923
25,653
21,501

111,528
70,421
37,827
3,280

121,824
73,905
24,318
23,601

124,744
53,374
20,378
50,992

24.7
-27.7
10.7
554.6

-12.1
-21.8
-15.2
67.6

698
670
28

830
721
108

1,122
716
406

867
647
220

769
647
122

3.1
-7.2
147.0

16.6
12.9
32.5

140,819
938
150,127

148,106
1,049
141,188

163,478
1,064
153,645

193,005
1,208
159,772

...
...
...

28.2
20.6
6.3

21.8
16.7
4.2

348,257
25,970

322,435
23,516

293,649
23,913

278,974
22,465

...
...

1.4
14.9

0.4
17.0

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

II
98

III
98

809.7
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.4
17,246
10,810
766
189
3,643
3,370
21,300

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
98

I
99

II
99

814.6
1.1
2.9
1.7
3.8

819.8
1.1
2.9
1.7
4.0

824.9
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.0

830.0
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.1

2.5
-2.8
0.3
2.4
17.8

2.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
26.9

17,572
11,063
783
198
3,679
3,415
21,571

17,917
11,330
800
205
3,722
3,460
21,856

18,256
11,592
817
210
3,765
3,505
22,131

18,591
11,852
833
217
3,805
3,550
22,397

7.8
9.6
8.7
15.1
4.4
5.3
5.2

7.2
8.8
8.3
15.8
3.9
5.3
4.7

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

PAGE TWELVE

A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj.
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

2,359.2
2,272.1
87.1
4.2

2,378.8
2,286.7
92.1
4.4

2,395.5
2,288.2
107.3
4.6

2,415.2
2,302.7
112.5
4.3

2,418.7
2,301.1
117.6
4.2

5.4
5.3
7.6
10.5

6.1
6.3
2.6
-1.0

2,143.4
12.4
152.4
217.6
166.4
51.2
104.9
67.6
516.5
114.4
402.1
144.2
641.3
354.1
43.6
310.5
170.8
40.3

2,146.5
12.5
152.9
217.6
166.6
51.0
105.3
67.9
516.4
114.4
402.0
144.6
644.0
353.2
44.2
309.0
169.6
40.3

2,148.5
12.6
154.0
218.0
167.2
50.8
105.7
68.3
515.2
114.4
400.8
144.8
645.4
352.8
44.7
308.1
166.5
40.2

2,130.9
12.6
157.4
219.3
168.1
51.2
106.3
68.7
512.4
114.7
397.7
145.4
648.7
328.8
44.6
284.2
138.4
40.3

2,109.7
10.4
158.7
218.5
167.6
50.9
106.1
68.2
508.6
114.5
394.1
146.0
645.5
315.9
44.6
271.3
125.5
40.7

3.6
-19.4
8.9
0.4
0.5
0.0
4.9
5.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.1
5.4
1.6
6.0
9.1
0.7

3.9
-6.8
9.9
1.8
2.0
1.3
5.7
7.0
3.5
4.5
3.2
6.7
4.3
1.7
0.9
1.8
0.8
-2.3

16.31
14.20
12.65
17.57
11.67
13.23

16.87
14.36
12.62
17.46
11.72
13.17

16.90
14.31
12.62
17.64
11.61
13.16

17.40
14.29
12.63
17.46
11.65
13.44

17.56
14.38
12.68
17.80
11.56
13.65

2.3
1.2
2.4
3.5
0.7
0.9

2.3
-0.4
5.6
-0.7
0.8
0.2

4,342,730
3,014,046
556,441
520,227
252,016
240,588
367,532
182,132
73,851
280,588
886,419
74,268
217,020

4,221,876
2,853,926
566,937
521,493
279,520
199,131
359,555
219,947
62,229
277,912
891,365
74,078
167,737

4,243,956
2,924,374
554,837
494,493
270,253
208,127
371,067
180,148
52,507
277,571
861,309
82,016
148,672

4,301,990
3,056,002
541,826
472,657
231,506
200,316
459,915
195,105
...
...
982,753
73,325
...

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

10.9
11.6
6.7
8.4
16.9
12.7
7.7
13.7
7.7
15.1
9.2
-18.5
12.8

7.9
8.6
7.0
7.3
3.3
16.0
3.8
12.9
-6.0
9.0
15.8
-23.5
4.3

959,715
653,388
199,639
106,688

920,622
616,151
140,862
163,609

1,010,937
695,178
260,803
54,956

1,024,486
640,619
248,829
135,038

981,262
599,639
168,646
212,977

5.5
-7.6
-9.0
122.5

-5.5
0.5
-33.1
43.3

6,015
5,521
89
405

6,055
4,849
87
1,119

6,088
4,793
127
1,168

6,819
5,309
61
1,449

5,067
4,478
83
506

-13.0
-0.8
-35.2
-57.3

8.9
12.2
19.5
-3.6

2,062
1,688
11
363

2,069
1,682
22
365

1,906
1,543
20
341

2,174
1,773
25
376

...
...
...
...

3.4
5.9
-21.9
-5.1

-4.2
-1.5
-26.6
-13.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

4,686.3
9.8
19.2
9.4
23.7

4,719.5
10.0
19.4
9.4
23.1

4,752.8
10.7
20.1
9.5
22.7

4,785.7
9.9
19.4
9.5
22.6

4,818.1
9.9
19.5
9.6
22.2

2.8
1.2
1.7
2.3
-6.2

2.9
3.7
2.9
2.1
-4.6

106,829
75,844
5,328
274
18,123
17,917

108,634
77,233
5,411
276
18,412
18,124

110,654
78,923
5,512
277
18,662
18,304

112,556
80,350
5,611
279
18,858
18,681

114,252
81,696
5,691
280
19,082
18,885

6.9
7.7
6.8
2.2
5.3
5.4

7.4
8.3
7.2
1.7
5.8
5.5

62,864
5,890
7,688
424
7,264
22,796
29,875

64,743
5,997
7,683
296
7,387
23,018
30,401

66,629
6,135
7,987
416
7,571
23,282
31,114

67,343
6,144
8,157
316
7,841
23,519
31,249

...
...
...
...
...
23,713
...

10.0
6.1
9.1
-10.7
10.0
4.0
6.0

10.8
6.6
8.8
0.3
9.2
4.4
6.2

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
FEB
99
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PA GE F OU RT EEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

966,722
103,079
250,467
613,176
303,431
71,002
195,675
36,754

1,522,328
168,709
522,605
831,014
430,130
89,602
280,232
60,296

1,616,342
159,223
489,592
967,527
296,143
59,147
192,025
44,971

2,097,121
207,967
661,032
1,228,122
237,566
39,565
145,196
52,805

2,524,983
219,457
790,288
1,515,238
166,206
26,348
96,414
43,444

4.2
10.1
-4.9
8.8
-9.2
-3.2
-6.8
-8.1

2.4
-1.1
-5.1
7.5
-6.7
-1.8
-11.4
8.4

720,518
1,961,302
746,785

844,049
2,173,695
891,834

734,824
1,941,296
822,700

826,164
2,101,124
882,995

739,909
1,901,570
863,591

18.9
11.4
9.6

10.8
1.6
5.6

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

MAR
99

APR
99

MAY
99

JUN
99

JUL
99

165.0
161.4

166.2
162.7

166.2
162.8

166.2
162.8

166.7
163.3

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.1
2.2

1.8
1.7

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix (*discontinued)
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

II
99

180.1
164.2
162.8
159.4

179.7
165.1
163.4
160.0

181.5
165.8
164.0
160.7

*
167.3
164.6
161.2

*
168.3
166.2
162.8

2.3
2.5
2.1
2.1

3.0
2.2
1.7
1.6

112.6
112.6

112.9
112.8

113.1
113.1

113.5
113.4

114.5
114.4

1.7
1.6

1.1
1.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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AR IZ ON A ’S E CO N OMY

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RESEARCH PROGRAMS
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