J U L Y

1 9 9 9

Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
June 1, 1999

E-COMMERCE
PRESENTS RISKS
AND OPPORTUNITIES
Internet-commerce is dramatically
changing supply chains and the way
goods are purchased. This has major
ramifications for Main Street businesses
and for governments that depend
on sales taxes. Have you bought an
airline ticket using the Internet yet?
Made car rental or hotel reservations?
Bought a computer or a sweater? Many
people have. In just the past year,
consumers have largely overcome the
fear of using a credit card to purchase
something on the Web. Experts say that
with 128-bit encryption, making a Web
purchase is safer than using an ATM
machine at your local grocery store.
During the holiday shopping season,

S U M M E R

Internet sales exploded, propelling sales
to nearly $8 billion, or 2% of total
nationwide retail sales. Currently,
virtually every retailer in the country,
large or small, is scurrying to develop
an online store.

M

otivation to purchase online is compelling: lower prices, wider selection,
detailed product information – all
from the convenience of your own home or
office – twenty four hours a day! Comparisonshopping is easy – just a click away. On the
Web, geographic boundaries disappear and
distance is zero.
Recent examples of the speed at which
things are changing include J.C. Penney Co.,
who just put all 12,000 items in its spring

I S S U E

catalog on line, and Sears new site offering
appliances (appliance.com – see craftsman.
com for tools). Federated Department Store’s
recently acquired Fingerhut, which positions
them to develop Web stores for Macy’s and
Bloomingdales, both traditional Main Street
stores. Sales tripled during the holiday season
for Eddie Bauer Inc., one of the pioneers
of “e-tailing” and one of the first to make
money on the Web.
In the electronics field, Dell is a widely
recognized pioneer ringing up sales of $24
million a day from its Web store. Recently
with the introduction of Gigabuys.com, Dell
expanded its product offering beyond its own
computers and accessories to some 30,000
electronic products and consumer electronics.
Compaq and Gateway are scurrying to catch
up. Egghead, a company that was losing money
fast recently abandoned its old business
model, eliminating all its brick and mortar
in favor of becoming a Web-only merchant.
After only a few short months, Egghead is
profitable once again.
The list of new offerings changes daily as
others join the fray. Wal-Mart and Kmart now
both have web stores. Auction sites such as
Onsale.com and ebay.com are hot. To keep
you informed, Business Week recently
launched a new web site, ebiz.com, that is
updated daily with news about e-commerce
developments. According to Forrester
Research, a widely respected information
technology research firm, as much as onethird of all retail sales will be conducted on
the Internet in only five years: sales will rise
from $8 billion to $108 billion in 2003!

I N S I D E
ECONOMIC
UPDATE & OUTLOOK ............3
EBR 50TH ANNIVERSARY ......6
FORECAST TABLES ................7
ARIZONA
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........8

ELLER GRADUAT E SCHOOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT ION
THE U NIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

TUCSON, ARIZONA

What is happening on the consumer side
is only a small part of the story! E-commerce
between businesses is five times larger – an
estimated $43 billion last year. In five years,
that will balloon to $1.3 trillion, or ten times
the consumer side (again according to
Forrester Research). The current wave of
reengineering (or more appropriately eengineering) is changing the way companies
distribute goods, collaborate within the
company and deal with suppliers. Inventories
time is reduced to days or hours, even as
customers place orders for “made-to-order”
products. Web technology enables companies
to respond to demand in real time rather than
producing to a forecast-driven production
schedule (which results in inventories).
All this is changing the entire nature of
organizations. Some companies contract
out the actual manufacturing or shipping
functions to other companies. From a
marketing viewpoint, data derived from
sales allows companies to analyze who their
best customers are, what they want, what
they are likely to buy next, and even identify
customers who aren’t worth the effort.
Industries with great potential for
e-engineering include the travel industry,
insurance, newspapers, autos, event tickets,
toys, apparel, home electronics, health and
beauty, computing and electronics, etc. An
airline ticket, for example, costs $8 to process
the traditional way, but only $1 on the Web.
By reducing costs and improving productivity, airlines can boost profits and lower
prices at the same time.
As industries are reshaped and supply
chains redefined, numerous opportunities
will emerge for innovative firms. Entire new
industries are being born. Others are at risk
of going the way of buggy whip manufacturers.
Growth of Internet retailing presents a
significant risk for Main Street retailers.
Think of amazon.com’s effect on small locally
owned bookstores that have gone out of
business in recent months. Barnes and
Noble quickly developed an on-line presence,
but Borders lagged. Some industry watchers
think Borders is in big trouble. The point
here is that as consumers buy more on-line
they will make fewer purchases at Main
Street stores. The Internet eliminates
long-standing geographic protections
of local businesses!
Even as corporate America suffers from
reengineering exhaustion, a new wave of
PAGE TWO

e-engineering is upon us. Get used to it,
and get on board. Your future is at stake!

THE INTERNET IS NOT
A TAX-FREE ZONE!
Growth in Internet commerce has major
implications for public institutions that depend
on sales taxes. As Main Street sales disappear,
so will tax receipts. It is not that the Internet
is a tax-free zone, as many purchasers think.
Rather, there are significant compliance issues
with Internet purchases that prevent taxes
from being collected. By law, taxes are still
due on mail order purchases (including catalog as well as Internet), assuming that the
jurisdiction imposes a use tax2. The problem
is that tax collectors cannot require merchants
to collect the tax (unless merchants have
“significant presence – or nexus” in the taxing
jurisdiction). That places the burden on the
purchaser to calculate and remit taxes due.
Unfortunately, most people incorrectly
believe that the Internet is tax-free. Others
choose to ignore their responsibility since
there is no means of enforcement. In short,
the Internet presents a moral hazard by
making tax cheats out of virtually everyone
who buys products online3.
An example may shed some light: let’s
buy a $3,000 computer from three different
merchants and compare the final costs,
including taxes:
1.Purchase the computer at a Main Street
business such as Circuit City or Best Buy
located in, say, the city of Tucson. The
merchant collects a sales tax of 7% or $210:
$150 (5%) goes to the State of Arizona
and $60 (2%) to the city of Tucson.
Total cost is $3,210.
2.Make an Internet purchase from dell.com.
Since Dell does not have nexus in
Arizona, tax authorities can not require
Dell to collect a tax so none is collected.
Since we are an individual, we choose to
ignore the law and do not pay taxes.
Total cost is $3,000.
3. Use the Internet but purchase from
Insight.com, which is headquartered
in the city of Tempe. A sales tax of 7.4%
or $222 is collected and distributed
as follows: $150 (5%) to the State of
Arizona, $51 (1.7%) to the City of Tempe
and $21 (0.7%) to Maricopa County.
Total cost is $3,222.
We’ve purchased three identical computer
systems and faced three different prices.
This is a terrible tax system that favors some

merchants over others. Even worse, it
creates incentives that change economic
behavior, as tax avoidance becomes an issue.
Reform of Federal laws that govern mail
order purchases is desperately needed so
that mail order merchants collect the tax.
Last October, Congress passed the Internet
Tax Freedom Act, which places a three year
ban on any new federal, state or local taxes
on Internet access fees, bandwidth capacity
or bit volume. It does not prohibit the collection of sales (or use) taxes, however. Also,
the law establishes the Advisory Commission
on Electronic Commerce that is charged
with the task of examining issues related to
all types of taxes on the Internet, including
sales and use. A lot is at stake and lobbying
promises to be intense.
How large an issue is this? Statewide,
retail sales during 1998 exceeded $31.5
billion. Assuming that Arizona consumers
behave similarly to their counterparts across
the nation, Arizonans purchased over $1.5
billion of products via mail order last year
(catalog and Internet combined). That represents $75 million in state tax revenues,
only a portion of which was collected from
businesses. By the year 2004, sales could
exceed $12 bill with a state tax liability of
$600 million. City and county assessments
add to that total. This is real money and the
stakes are sky high!
Even economists and local economywatchers have a stake in this issue! Estimates
of retail sales for the state and counties are
based on tax collections. (If you know how
much money was collected and the tax rate,
it is simple arithmetic to compute the sales
base). But, economists have no measure of
catalog and Internet sales, since taxes are
(often) not collected. As mail order volume
grows, the usefulness of sales data as currently
calculated will suffer as indicators of consumer purchases or the health of the economy.
Stay tuned! $
1

2

3

Mark Trease is a doctoral student of Public Financial
Management in the School of Public Administration
and Policy.
A sales tax is charged on transactions that occur
within the boundaries of the taxing jurisdiction. Use
taxes are assessed on goods that are purchased outof-area but brought into the area for consumption.
The use tax is in place of and not added onto the
sales tax. All states that have a sales tax also have a
use tax. Many cities in Arizona also impose use taxes.
Use taxes are necessary to create a level playing
field for local businesses.
Since businesses are given the opportunity to
declare mail order purchases on forms filed with
tax authorities and are faced with the threat of
audit, most declare their purchases and pay taxes.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

TOO GOOD
TO BE TRUE?

EXHIBIT 1
Capital Gains Boost Income
Individual Income Tax Withholding (line), AZ

By Marshall J. Vest
June 1, 1999

How long can the too-good-to-be-true
economy continue to soar? So far,
Arizona’s economy looks very strong,
thanks to consumers who obviously are
“not into delayed gratification.” They
are buying new cars, houses, furnishings
and even new clothing! Employment
remains strong and estimates were
recently revised upward. The situation
in Latin America looks much less
onerous, and exports to Mexico are
expanding robustly. However, the good
news may be about to change as consumers take a deep breath. The forecast
calls for a much slower economy next
year as the new millennium begins.

W

ith data through the first quarter,
Arizona’s economy continues to experience robust growth, consistent
with our year-end forecast that consumers
would fuel the expansion one more year.
Strong consumer spending and a booming
housing sector continue to lead the economy.
Retail sales and restaurant & bar sales are
both increasing at a 7-8% annual rate. In a
world with less than 2% inflation, most of that
increase is due to gains in volume. Apparel
and accessory stores show the largest increase
during the past twelve months with sales up
11.4%. Motor vehicle dealer sales gained
9.4%, followed by building materials & hardware stores (up 9.0%) and furniture & home
furnishings (up 8.7%).
Residential building permits continue
marching upward, setting new highs for this
decade each month. During the first quarter,
total permits were 21% higher than the prior
year. Single family permits were up 22.5%
from the all-time record 48,000 units for
all of 1998. Markets for resale housing
also continue their upward surge. In metro
Phoenix, resales are running at a record-high
55,000 unit annual rate and Tucson sales are
the highest since 1978 as they approach a
10,500 unit annual rate. Both areas registered
15-20% increases during the first quarter.
AR IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY

EXHIBIT 2
Industrial Sector Expanding
Purchasing Managers Survey, Arizona

Consumers have been spurred to spend by
the cornucopia of jobs, increasing real wages,
large bonuses and profits from stock-option
plans, low interest rates that have allowed
homeowners to refinance – thus freeing
more of take home pay for spending, and

large gains in wealth from appreciating
financial and real assets. During the past
twelve months, individual income tax
withholding has consistently been running 11-12% higher than the prior year
(Exhibit 1). This measure captures more
PAGE THREE

EXHIBIT 3
A History of Revisions
to Wage & Salary Employment Estimates
Arizona, 1983 to 1998
Year

Thousands of jobs

% change from prior year

prelim

1st rev

final

change

prelim

1st rev

1983

1045.0

1064.5

1077.7

32.7

1.5

3.4

4.7

3.1

1984

1141.7

1180.8

1181.6

39.9

7.3

9.6

9.6

2.4

1985

1258.5

1277.5

1278.6

20.1

6.6

8.1

8.2

1.6

1986

1344.1

1341.4

1337.9

-6.2

5.2

4.9

4.6

-0.6

1987

1371.6

1383.7

1385.7

14.1

2.3

3.4

3.6

1.3

1988

1411.4

1410.6

1418.9

7.5

2.0

1.8

2.4

0.4

1989

1437.2

1457.2

1454.3

17.1

1.9

2.7

2.5

0.6

1990

1505.4

1490.9

1482.9

-22.5

3.3

2.5

2.0

-1.3

1991

1518.4

1497.6

1491.4

-27.0

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.3

1992

1505.1

1519.9

1517.1

12.0

0.5

1.9

1.7

1.2

1993

1553.9

1571.2

1584.4

30.5

2.2

3.6

4.4

2.2

1994

1638.6

1685.2

1692.1

53.5

4.3

6.4

6.8

2.5

1995

1760.7

1783.1

1795.6

34.9

4.5

5.4

6.1

1.6

1996

1859.0

1895.6

1892.2

33.2

4.3

5.6

5.4

1.1

1984.7

4.8

4.4

4.5

4.9

9.1

4.6

4.7

1997

1979.9

1977.1

1998

2068.9

2078.0
Average

16.3

final

change

0.4
0.1

Average

1.0

EXHIBIT 4
Exports from Arizona to the World, $000s
Destination

1996

1997

% chg

1998

% chg

Asian 10 Countries

4,545,997

6,018,415

32.4

4,082,443

-32.2

Mexico

2,005,373

2,177,882

8.6

2,738,570

25.7

Canada

997,214

1,096,152

9.9

1,089,152

-0.6

United Kingdom

830,113

1,095,822

32.0

780,080

-0.6

Germany

396,726

395,962

-0.2

513,713

-28.8

France

306,332

361,203

17.9

427,942

18.5

Netherlands

138,261

306,695

121.8

404,767

32.0

Ireland

101,567

95,342

-6.1

138,012

44.8

Australia

83,223

90,454

8.7

123,919

37.0

Switzerland

50,868

108,429

113.2

120,913

11.5

$10,502,466

$13,820,200

31.6

$11,414,462

-17.4

Total AZ Exports

than just job growth and salary increases, both
of which grew by 4% or so last year. It also
captures realized taxable capital gains from
ownership such as the sale of businesses
or securities, IPO proceeds, company stock
options and severance income. Since 1994,
realized capital gains have tripled nationwide,
providing a significant source of income to
PA GE F OU R

support spending. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence of Arizonans stands near
record highs.
Even Arizona’s export sector looks better.
During the past year, layoffs resulting from
falling exports buffeted the manufacturing
sector. Manufacturing job growth slowed from
6% annual rates in late 97-early 98 to near

zero in recent months. However, in last year’s
fourth quarter, the export picture began to
improve (see section below). Additionally,
the Arizona Purchasing Managers Survey
strengthened considerably in recent months
with both orders and production again
moving above 50. Readings above 50 signal
that Arizona’s industrial sector is expanding
(Exhibit 2).

REVISIONS SHOW
STRONGER EMPLOYMENT
In March, the Arizona Department of
Economic Security (DES) released its annual
revisions of employment. Counts for both
1997 and 1998 were boosted upward,
although by relatively small amounts. The
new estimates for 1998 employment are
9,100 higher than previously-released
figures. That is in addition to a 7,600 upward
boost for the prior year. The revision for
1997 reverses last year’s “first” revision that
lowered job counts by 2,800. Although the
changes are small and well within federal
government guidelines, they show that the
economy was stronger than originally
reported. A history of prior revisions is
presented in Exhibit 3.
Job growth in 1997 is now set at 4.9%, with
1998 registering a 4.7% gain. Preliminary
estimates showed increases of 4.4% and 4.6%,
respectively. The 1998 figure will be revised
again next year – most likely upward, but
the change should be small – a few tenths
of a percent at most.
Interestingly, preliminary job growth in
each of the past five years has ranged between
4.3% and 4.6% (column six). These are
the numbers that are reported to the press
each month. Final revisions show that actual
job growth was as high as 6.8% in 1994
(column eight).
When the economy is growing rapidly,
the sample survey employed by DES tends to
understate the number of jobs created in new
firms. Although the economy grew rapidly
last year, a chronic shortage of workers no
doubt restrained job creation. At the end of
1998, unemployment was only 3.6% statewide, and an even lower 2.8% and 2.4% in
the Phoenix and Tucson Metro areas, respectively. Business managers confirm that finding
workers remains their biggest challenge, as
it has been over the past 2-3 years.
Looking at sub-state areas, most of the
new-found jobs are in the “Balance of the
State,” i.e., the thirteen counties that lie
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

outside the Phoenix and Tucson metro
areas. In the original estimates, job growth
in the Balance registered 2.8% during 1997;
the revised estimates show growth of 5.0%.
The 1997 estimates for Pima County (metro
Tucson) also received a boost – to 2.8% from
1.8% originally reported. Growth in Metro
Phoenix was trimmed slightly, from 5.5%
to 5.4% during that same year.
The failure of a growing number of firms
with multiple job sites to report employment
by county continues to affect reliability of
sub-state estimates. The statewide totals for
these firms are counted in the county that is
believed to be the firm’s “home base.” In
most cases, that is Maricopa County. The
mis-reporting boosts metro Phoenix figures
at the expense of all outlying counties. With
that warning as a caveat, revised estimates
show 1998 job growth at 5.6% in metro
Phoenix, 3.2% in metro Tucson and 2.3%
in the Balance of the State.
Comparing 1998 job growth to other
areas across the country, the Phoenix-Mesa
metro area ranks as the fastest-growing
large metro area and the 9th-fastest among
all (some 286) metro areas. Arizona is the
fastest-growing state with its 4.7% increase,
edging out number Florida (4.1%). Nevada,
the perennial leader, ranks fifth with a
3.8% increase.

EXPORTS TO MEXICO
STILL STRONG
Final numbers for all of 1998 show that
Arizona exports to Mexico remain strong.
Last quarter, with only nine months of data,
exports were registering a rather weak 3.6%
increase. But, a burst of exports during the
fourth quarter boosted the annual total to
over $2.7 billion, a strong 25.7% gain. That
helped offset further declines in exports to
Asian-10 countries, which fell by nearly a
third. Overall, Arizona exports declined by
$2.4 billion or 17.4% in 1998 (Exhibit 4).
News on Mexico’s economy has been
favorable in recent months. Brazil’s devaluation in January raised the question of whether
contagion would spread throughout Latin
America like it did in Asia. Although Brazil,
Argentina and Venezuela are currently suffering recessions, contagion has not spread to
Mexico. Nor is it expected to do so. Mexico’s
trade links are with the U.S., not South
American countries. Moreover, investor capital has returned to Mexico’s financial markets,
easing pressures on the peso. During the
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 5
Arizona’s Job Growth Mirrors the U.S.
Wage and Salary Job Growth

Brazilian devaluation, the Mexican peso sank
to roughly 10.7 per dollar. In recent weeks
it has recovered to roughly 9.2. Mexico’s
stock market also has recovered nicely, with
the IPC General Index in mid-May surging
back to a record high near 6,000. According
to the Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast
newsletter, published by the College of
Business at Arizona State University, real GDP
will grow by 2.5% in 1999, followed by a 3.4%
increase the following year.
News is also positive for many Asian countries. South Korea has bottomed out, capital
is returning as reflected in rising financial
markets, and economic recovery is in its early
stages. Other countries will follow. As their
economies strengthen, so should Arizona’s
exports to that region. Although it will take
some time to recover lost ground, the downdraft in exports appears to have bottomed out.

THE OUTLOOK
Now the hard question: How much longer
can consumers continue to carry the domestic
(and world) economy? According to forecasts
of The WEFA Group, a leader in worldwide
economic forecasting whose forecast we use
as inputs to our models, U.S. consumers’
spending spree has just about run its course.
How the cooling process starts is anyone’s
guess but consumer confidence falls, spend-

ing returns to more normal levels, job
growth slows, and wage increases moderate.
Possible triggers are inflation, higher
interest rates, a stock market crash, Y2K
disruptions, shocks to foreign economies,
or a combination of all the above. The
dollar is expected to fall over the forecast
horizon, which causes import prices to
rise. This allows domestic producers to
raise prices for the first time this decade.
With rising inflation, interest rates move
up, which brings high-flying housing
markets back to earth.
April’s report of large increases in both
consumer and producer prices may mark
the beginning; mortgage rates are already
up nearly a whole percentage point since
last summer’s low point. WEFA forecasts
growth of only 1.8% in real GDP in 2000,
half the rate of growth experienced during
1996-99. Growth averages 2.2% during
2001-04.
Arizona’s economy mirrors the U.S. in
our forecasts. By 2000, Arizona job growth
is cut nearly in half, and increases by a
below-average 2.3%. Although no recession
is expected, that is the slowest growth
since the last recession ended in 1992.
Exhibit 5 shows how Arizona’s job
growth mirrors the U.S.
PAGE FIVE

EXHIBIT 6
Spending Binge Nearing End?

50
The University of Arizona’s
Economic and Business
Research Program (EBR) is
celebrating its Golden Jubilee

Retail Sales Growth, Arizona

50th anniversary

On July 28, 1949, the Bureau of Business Research
(BBR) was created with Dr. Lauren W. Casaday
as Director, one research associate and a secretary
in temporary quarters in the Engineering building.

The Bureau underwent three name changes: one
in 1957, when it became the Bureau of Business
and Public Research (BBPR), and another in 1965,
when it became the Division of Economic and
Business Research. In a sweeping reorganization
and downsizing in 1991, the organization adopted
its current moniker.

As the 21st century approaches, EBR continues its
proud service to the citizens of Arizona as well
as the national constituency. Current activities
revolve around the State Data Center (principal
status), economic and revenue forecasting, and
special studies that range from economic impact
to public finance to industry studies.

As job growth slows and interest rates
move up, consumers lose confidence and
boost their rate of savings. The effect on
retail sales is significant. After gaining 7.1% in
’99, sales cool to a chilly 2.9% increase. That
is the smallest gain since ’91. Consumers
remain cautious throughout the following four
years and match purchases more closely
with gains in personal income (see forecast
table on page 7). Housing markets also cool
considerably with new home construction
retreating from 60,000 annual pace to nearer
40,000 (see Exhibit 6).
WEFA’s forecast for next year is among the
lowest in a survey of some 50 economists as
reported in the April Blue Chip Economic
Indicators, published by Aspen Publishers,
Inc. The consensus forecast for real GDP is
2.5%. WEFA’s HIGH scenario contains growth
of only 2.1%, still well below the consensus.
For that reason, we assign equal probabilities
of 40% to the BASE and HIGH scenarios. That
leaves 15% for the RECESSION and 5% for
the LOW scenarios.
Using WEFA’s HIGH scenario to drive our
models, job growth of 2.8% in 2000 is projected for Arizona, a half point higher that
in the BASE. In the HIGH scenario, personal
income grows by 7.1% but retail sales
grow by a still-meager 3.8%.
PAGE SIX

Either way, the consumer relinquishes
his economy-leading role and the toogood-to-be-true economy returns to reality.
Keys to watch in coming months include
inflation, interest rates, Y2K fallout, and
consumers’ expectations. $
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Estes/Kaufman and Broad
Merrill Lynch
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S WEST Communications
U S WEST Dex

Publications include Arizona’s Economy (a free
quarterly newsletter, AUBER Award of Excellence,
Continuing Publications Category, 1993), the
Arizona Statistical Abstract (AUBER Award of
Excellence, Single Volume Category, 1993),
and Arizona Economic Indicators, a twice-yearly
chartbook. The annual Economic Forecast
Luncheon attracts nearly 500 business leaders
each year.
Directors of the organization include:
Dr. Lauren W. Casaday..........................1949-’63
Dr. Harold J. Hoflich..............................1964-’66
Dr. David E. Shirly .................................1966-’71
Dr. Gerlof Homan ........................................1971
Dr. Gary M. Munsinger..........................1971-’72
Dr. Joseph Walka ..................................1972-’73
Dr. Terrence B. O’Keefe .........................1972-’77
Dr. Nat De Gennaro, acting director.............1977
Dr. Helmut Frank ...................................1978-’80
Dr. Arthur Silvers ..................................1981-’91
Lisa Fahey, Associate Dean
for Advancement ............................91 to present
Current staff and activities include:
Dr. Alberta Charney..................Economic Impact
and Fiscal Analysis
Marshall Vest ..........Forecasting Project Director
Pia Montoya....Data Bases and State Data Center
Valorie Rice .................................Data Reference
Heather Peterson..................Research Specialist
Maile Nadelhoffer .................Research Specialist
Diana Hunter ...............Communications Director
Kitty Stoops..................Administrative Associate
3 part-time students........Steve, Matt and Aurora

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1998
107,275.2
7.1
22,810.0
4.0
45,459.4
5.9
4,703.0
2.9
93.0
2,078.1
4.7
373.2
5.7
142.4
8.0
217.9
5.1
1,704.9
4.5
500.2
3.7
625.1
4.8

1999
115,357.6
7.5
23,865.8
4.6
48,408.7
6.5
4,833.6
2.8
89.5
2,164.5
4.2
381.0
2.1
150.5
5.7
217.8
0.0
1,783.5
4.6
520.0
4.0
663.0
6.1

2000
122,964.8
6.6
24,801.1
3.9
49,942.6
3.2
4,958.0
2.6
76.8
2,214.0
2.3
381.5
0.1
146.6
-2.6
222.0
1.9
1,832.5
2.7
535.2
2.9
683.8
3.1

2001
130,178.5
5.9
25,686.0
3.6
51,803.7
3.7
5,068.1
2.2
69.3
2,261.8
2.2
382.5
0.3
140.4
-4.2
229.1
3.2
1,879.2
2.5
551.4
3.0
705.6
3.2

2002
137,437.6
5.6
26,546.7
3.4
54,465.4
5.1
5,177.2
2.2
71.0
2,310.6
2.2
385.3
0.7
138.1
-1.6
234.2
2.2
1,925.3
2.5
568.2
3.1
726.6
3.0

2003
145,451.6
5.8
27,512.3
3.6
57,293.1
5.2
5,286.8
2.1
71.9
2,365.6
2.4
391.9
1.7
139.5
1.0
239.5
2.3
1,973.7
2.5
587.2
3.3
746.1
2.7

2004
153,809.8
5.7
28,488.0
3.5
60,160.6
5.0
5,399.1
2.1
75.1
2,424.8
2.5
401.6
2.5
143.1
2.6
245.5
2.5
2,023.3
2.5
607.2
3.4
765.5
2.6

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
77,290.3
9.8
26,176.4
6.0
31,448.5
7.3
2,952.7
3.6
75.2
1,464.3
5.9
281.2
6.9
103.8
9.1
171.2
6.0
1,183.1
5.6
354.5
4.7
456.1
5.6

1999
83,756.2
8.4
27,512.0
5.1
33,962.1
8.0
3,044.4
3.1
62.3
1,526.2
4.2
286.2
1.8
107.5
3.6
172.6
0.8
1,240.0
4.8
371.4
4.8
478.6
4.9

2000
89,692.4
7.1
28,688.1
4.3
35,144.8
3.5
3,126.5
2.7
51.7
1,559.4
2.2
287.8
0.6
103.7
-3.6
178.0
3.2
1,271.6
2.6
381.8
2.8
488.3
2.0

2001
95,747.7
6.8
29,894.6
4.2
36,697.2
4.4
3,202.8
2.4
45.5
1,593.5
2.2
290.3
0.9
98.5
-5.0
185.7
4.3
1,303.1
2.5
392.4
2.8
500.2
2.4

2002
101,759.9
6.3
31,033.1
3.8
39,130.2
6.6
3,279.1
2.4
45.3
1,625.7
2.0
290.3
0.0
95.5
-3.0
188.6
1.6
1,335.3
2.5
404.1
3.0
511.8
2.3

2003
108,235.4
6.4
32,257.4
3.9
41,575.6
6.2
3,355.4
2.3
45.3
1,659.9
2.1
294.0
1.3
95.2
-0.4
192.6
2.1
1,365.9
2.3
416.3
3.0
520.6
1.7

2004
114,905.1
6.2
33,474.3
3.8
43,943.8
5.7
3,432.6
2.3
46.2
1,695.9
2.2
299.9
2.0
97.1
2.1
196.5
2.0
1,396.0
2.2
427.9
2.8
530.2
1.8

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
17,851.9
6.5
21,985.1
4.2
7,260.5
4.7
812.0
2.1
12.5
328.1
4.0
51.0
2.1
20.2
4.2
28.6
1.2
277.1
4.4
70.3
1.6
105.9
6.7

1999
19,270.7
7.9
23,126.6
5.2
7,686.2
5.9
833.3
2.6
17.0
344.5
5.0
55.9
9.6
21.6
6.8
32.0
12.0
288.6
4.1
72.8
3.5
111.3
5.1

2000
20,526.0
6.5
24,085.0
4.1
8,032.4
4.5
852.2
2.3
14.7
351.2
2.0
57.2
2.4
22.3
3.5
32.3
1.0
294.0
1.9
74.6
2.5
113.9
2.3

2001
21,716.9
5.8
25,057.9
4.0
8,414.9
4.8
866.7
1.7
10.0
356.0
1.3
57.3
0.2
22.1
-1.1
32.7
0.9
298.6
1.6
76.0
1.9
116.3
2.1

2002
22,927.3
5.6
26,047.3
3.9
8,818.5
4.8
880.2
1.6
9.1
360.5
1.3
57.3
0.0
21.6
-2.0
33.0
0.9
303.2
1.5
77.4
1.9
118.7
2.1

2003
24,231.5
5.7
27,102.9
4.1
9,229.8
4.7
894.1
1.6
9.5
366.1
1.6
57.7
0.6
21.5
-0.4
33.3
0.9
308.5
1.7
79.2
2.2
121.1
2.0

2004
25,545.1
5.4
28,123.6
3.8
9,638.3
4.4
908.3
1.6
9.9
371.8
1.5
58.4
1.2
21.8
1.4
33.5
0.8
313.4
1.6
80.8
2.1
123.1
1.7

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona.

AR IZON A 'S ECON O MY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

63,125
50,450
12,675
20.1

62,800
51,575
11,225
17.9

60,875
51,825
9,050
14.9

62,875
52,975
9,900
15.7

67,875
53,625
14,250
21.0

9.7
19.5
-16.2
-23.6

6.2
7.4
3.1
-3.0

42,575
25
2,550
2,250
1,900
12,200
1,275
8,300
14,100

42,225
n/a
2,525
2,250
1,875
12,250
1,250
8,100
13,975

42,975
n/a
2,525
2,300
1,875
11,900
1,250
8,125
15,000

43,200
n/a
2,575
2,350
1,825
12,050
1,250
8,150
15,000

43,050
n/a
2,700
2,350
1,800
11,725
1,175
8,200
15,100

12.8
...
10.2
11.9
1.4
4.0
4.4
-0.9
35.4

7.1
...
7.7
18.3
7.3
0.9
-5.8
-3.7
21.2

107,093
88,375
9,547
9,171
9,624
15,460

86,786
68,224
9,376
9,186
9,608
15,341

93,710
73,847
11,297
8,566
9,462
15,859

96,612
75,457
10,444
10,711
10,225
16,751

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.4
2.0
-5.3
42.0
40.4
2.6

4.5
4.3
4.8
5.5
26.7
3.4

9,715
5,588
3,303
824

11,342
6,969
2,500
1,873

14,948
7,339
6,615
994

12,980
7,750
3,783
1,447

20,210
9,093
1,971
9,146

45.9
17.0
-60.7
758.0

-14.7
16.0
-40.8
-14.3

74
74

76
76

79
79

97
97

103
103

21.2
21.2

28.4
28.1

70,000
67,000
3,000
4.3

71,575
67,625
3,950
5.5

70,475
67,650
2,825
4.0

71,950
68,200
3,750
5.2

71,775
68,350
3,425
4.8

8.6
8.4
12.3
3.4

6.1
6.8
-6.9
-12.4

41,950
175
3,325
3,625
2,075
13,400
1,475
10,075
7,800

41,425
n/a
3,250
3,625
1,950
13,275
1,425
9,975
7,750

41,475
n/a
3,200
3,650
1,950
13,100
1,425
10,100
7,875

41,950
n/a
3,200
3,700
1,950
13,400
1,425
10,200
7,900

42,400
n/a
3,200
3,700
2,000
13,450
1,475
10,350
8,050

2.3
...
5.8
5.7
-2.4
6.5
-1.7
2.2
-4.7

2.0
...
7.4
7.4
-0.6
4.3
2.2
0.9
-3.7

102,768
83,449
10,663
8,656
9,083
25,384

81,013
60,399
11,076
9,538
9,977
17,623

106,056
82,607
14,165
9,284
10,255
20,739

103,483
78,067
13,213
12,203
11,649
24,804

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.1
7.8
3.4
6.8
5.7
44.9

6.2
10.4
6.7
-15.9
0.8
23.0

16,716
12,439
1,531
2,746

22,538
12,933
5,878
3,727

16,540
15,265
719
556

35,211
18,246
7,107
9,858

29,063
16,660
4,855
7,548

57.8
21.5
21.1
984.5

-10.5
12.6
-25.1
-35.4

132
128

136
132

179
149

201
199

171
167

19.6
18.4

13.9
13.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

51,825
47,575
4,250
8.2

52,250
48,300
3,950
7.6

52,225
48,300
3,925
7.5

52,775
48,675
4,100
7.8

53,025
49,100
3,925
7.4

2.9
3.8
-7.1
-9.7

0.0
2.0
-15.8
-15.8

41,375
50
2,075
2,225
2,400
11,475
1,000
9,325
12,875

41,100
n/a
2,075
2,250
2,425
11,350
975
9,150
12,875

41,425
n/a
2,125
2,200
2,450
11,400
975
9,275
13,000

41,750
n/a
2,150
2,200
2,450
11,600
975
9,225
13,150

41,650
n/a
2,125
2,250
2,450
11,500
975
9,300
13,050

-0.7
...
4.9
8.4
0.0
-2.5
-4.9
3.0
-3.7

0.5
...
4.7
3.1
2.3
1.2
6.8
1.0
-2.2

93,958
75,767
9,199
8,992
9,437
14,557

66,255
49,776
7,960
8,519
8,911
11,742

73,184
54,620
9,652
8,912
9,844
14,296

82,103
60,937
9,253
11,913
11,373
16,981

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.7
3.8
0.2
71.5
69.6
75.9

7.3
7.2
-0.5
17.4
42.5
18.0

11,360
5,475
5,475
410

25,653
6,301
2,795
16,557

8,582
7,945
380
257

9,799
8,488
833
478

10,282
7,043
1,200
2,039

11.0
-1.6
-43.0
...

27.6
1.3
53.6
160.5

62
60

69
69

86
86

96
92

91
91

15.2
15.2

-2.1
11.1

32,975
30,425
2,550
7.7

32,950
30,300
2,650
8.0

33,075
30,275
2,800
8.5

33,200
30,525
2,675
8.1

33,350
30,875
2,475
7.4

1.3
1.7
-3.9
-5.1

-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
0.1

25,275
2,950
1,975
1,875
825
5,675
500
4,450
7,075

24,675
n/a
1,950
n/a
850
5,500
n/a
4,350
6,825

24,800
n/a
1,950
n/a
850
5,450
n/a
4,300
7,075

25,450
n/a
1,975
n/a
825
5,625
n/a
4,450
7,425

25,525
n/a
2,050
n/a
800
5,575
n/a
4,375
7,575

-0.5
...
15.5
...
-3.0
-0.9
...
2.9
-3.8

-2.8
...
12.5
...
-3.6
-1.3
...
-0.2
-8.8

46,702
37,747
4,673
4,282
4,493
7,973

35,034
27,633
4,007
3,394
3,550
9,569

39,165
30,636
5,230
3,299
3,644
9,822

41,132
31,944
4,962
4,226
4,035
10,492

...
...
...
...
...
...

0.1
-3.2
1.2
32.3
30.8
-13.5

-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
3.0
24.3
0.9

5,296
3,163
2,000
133

4,221
3,577
0
644

5,562
3,930
231
1,401

13,693
7,290
5,153
1,250

9,908
5,195
4,250
463

20.6
-24.0
2979.7
-62.7

0.2
-11.6
55.4
-18.0

27
27

32
32

41
41

57
57

44
44

-21.4
-21.4

-14.6
-3.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PA GE NI NE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

50,375
43,425
6,950
13.8

50,700
43,125
7,575
14.9

51,050
43,325
7,725
15.1

50,800
43,525
7,275
14.3

50,875
44,225
6,650
13.1

1.1
2.1
-4.7
-5.7

-1.4
-0.5
-6.3
-4.9

42,975
950
1,875
1,525
2,475
7,500
1,100
6,575
21,000

41,950
n/a
1,700
1,475
2,425
7,275
1,050
6,650
20,450

42,375
n/a
1,675
1,500
2,425
7,175
1,050
6,850
20,775

43,175
n/a
1,775
1,475
2,425
7,325
1,100
7,100
21,000

43,575
n/a
1,850
1,450
2,425
7,750
1,125
7,100
20,900

-0.2
...
-2.6
5.5
1.0
6.5
-2.2
-0.4
-2.8

-2.0
...
0.2
-6.1
0.5
2.0
1.7
0.5
-4.6

61,850
52,231
4,320
5,299
5,561
7,886

45,829
36,547
3,647
5,635
5,895
9,955

51,085
41,185
5,371
4,529
5,003
8,355

55,613
43,323
4,025
8,265
7,891
10,285

...
...
...
...
...
...

6.5
1.7
-7.2
56.4
54.6
40.8

2.7
4.8
3.2
-11.0
6.8
26.4

11,591
5,374
5,747
470

5,584
3,352
2,000
232

18,903
18,903
0
0

9,452
5,157
2,295
2,000

8,146
6,227
373
1,546

-6.3
-3.1
-66.1
31.6

9.3
33.9
-21.4
11.8

45
45

31
31

205
197

61
61

61
61

-1.6
-1.6

30.7
42.0

124,425
118,675
5,750
4.6

123,275
116,850
6,425
5.2

126,375
120,975
5,400
4.3

125,375
118,975
6,400
5.1

129,450
123,725
5,725
4.4

5.2
5.7
-5.4
-10.1

3.3
4.3
-13.6
-16.3

99,025
1,000
6,450
6,450
3,150
25,925
3,200
27,500
25,350

97,775
1,000
6,325
6,550
3,075
25,100
3,125
26,875
25,725

99,975
1,000
6,425
6,575
3,075
25,300
3,150
27,325
27,125

101,925
1,025
6,700
6,600
3,150
26,000
3,150
28,050
27,250

102,825
1,050
6,700
6,500
3,250
26,575
3,200
28,825
26,725

3.1
5.0
3.9
0.4
0.8
4.6
2.4
7.2
-1.6

3.0
2.8
2.4
0.0
3.4
1.3
6.4
6.4
1.9

175,131
138,107
25,878
11,146
11,697
46,888

141,474
105,338
23,162
12,974
13,571
41,064

157,462
119,179
27,431
10,852
11,987
38,142

177,412
130,407
29,896
17,109
16,333
41,425

...
...
...
...
...
...

12.6
9.0
8.9
63.9
62.1
25.5

3.9
4.8
9.3
-12.8
5.4
14.3

31,383
22,956
2,648
5,779

36,042
21,627
6,307
8,108

36,298
24,488
11,531
279

50,150
29,568
14,359
6,223

50,977
24,270
14,518
12,189

3.8
-21.1
18.1
100.8

-3.8
-7.8
-12.6
20.9

199
187

203
182

208
198

255
246

243
223

2.1
0.5

5.4
10.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

1569.5
1528.1
41.3
2.9

1555.4
1513.5
41.9
2.7

1568.2
1524.1
44.1
2.9

1572.6
1529.0
43.6
3.0

1579.4
1535.3
44.1
3.2

7.5
7.1
27.8
18.5

6.7
6.7
5.3
-1.2

1515.7
5.6
110.4
171.5
131.3
40.2
78.4
370.0
90.5
279.5
122.6
465.6
191.6

1473.8
5.6
109.5
170.2
130.7
39.5
78.1
362.3
89.9
272.4
121.7
446.0
180.4

1493.6
5.5
110.6
170.8
131.0
39.8
77.9
363.4
90.8
272.6
121.7
452.8
190.9

1503.4
5.5
111.5
170.4
130.8
39.6
78.7
365.8
91.5
274.3
122.3
457.9
191.3

1504.5
5.6
111.8
170.4
131.0
39.4
79.0
365.1
91.6
273.5
122.6
459.5
190.5

3.5
0.0
10.1
0.6
0.5
1.0
8.2
3.9
5.4
3.4
5.6
2.1
2.3

5.1
-7.6
10.9
3.2
3.8
1.2
7.3
4.2
4.9
4.0
9.3
4.1
4.7

3,261,953
2,456,515
374,167
309,915
121,356
681,235

2,571,725
1,754,159
377,375
319,323
120,868
517,582

2,648,885
1,811,315
379,775
338,392
119,403
579,389

3,020,372
2,128,598
381,135
363,827
146,812
658,683

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.1
9.5
6.7
5.7
19.4
14.1

7.4
7.5
10.0
8.4
-3.2
16.2

555,794
356,439
102,663
96,692

521,988
349,736
71,155
101,097

466,459
353,339
84,893
28,227

749,011
523,048
142,544
83,419

687,959
490,740
88,042
109,177

-13.2
1.0
-59.5
21.7

-3.7
1.5
-28.4
39.0

3,835
2,805
4
1,004

4,362
2,936
11
1,376

3,753
3,008
13
712

4,777
4,306
15
400

4,726
3,578
38
1,104

3.5
-3.9
280.0
33.7

12.2
13.8
25.2
11.4

691,502
4,636
149,159

565,636
3,638
155,480

539,179
3,581
150,567

751,107
4,910
152,975

816,448
5,142
158,780

26.3
17.0
8.0

21.2
14.3
5.9

2,617,190
46,452

2,531,340
45,005

2,547,304
43,505

3,142,807
49,034

...
...

2.6
6.9

5.1
4.8

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
98

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

2,915.4
6.9
12.4
5.4
19.1

2,940.5
7.0
12.4
5.5
18.2

2,964.2
7.0
12.5
5.5
16.6

2,987.1
7.1
12.7
5.5
15.7

3,010.0
7.2
12.8
5.6
15.7

3.2
4.2
3.4
2.4
-18.0

3.4
3.0
2.5
1.8
-10.7

74,767
55,101
3,790
-173
13,139
10,490
25,646

76,489
56,476
3,872
-174
13,407
10,652
26,012

78,158
57,801
3,951
-174
13,665
10,817
26,367

79,747
59,050
4,023
-174
13,909
10,985
26,697

81,332
60,293
4,094
-173
14,153
11,154
27,020

8.8
9.4
8.0
-0.2
7.7
6.3
5.4

9.4
10.2
9.0
0.0
8.6
6.2
5.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

385.0
376.0
9.0
2.5

384.7
375.3
9.4
2.5

389.1
379.2
9.9
2.6

389.6
380.2
9.4
2.5

390.8
381.5
9.3
2.7

6.1
6.3
-2.6
-10.0

4.7
5.3
-13.0
-16.9

336.5
2.1
20.8
29.3
23.4
5.9
13.6
73.2
11.2
62.0
13.7
109.4
74.4

329.3
2.1
20.6
28.6
22.8
5.8
13.4
71.4
10.9
60.5
13.3
108.2
71.7

334.8
2.1
20.9
29.1
23.2
5.9
13.2
71.8
11.0
60.8
13.3
109.5
74.9

337.8
2.1
21.4
29.4
23.5
5.9
13.4
72.7
11.0
61.7
13.3
110.1
75.4

338.0
2.0
21.6
29.6
23.6
6.0
13.6
72.3
10.9
61.4
13.4
110.3
75.2

3.4
-9.1
12.5
2.4
2.6
1.7
0.7
3.4
2.8
3.5
5.5
4.1
0.9

3.4
-6.3
5.7
2.7
3.1
1.0
-1.6
1.6
0.2
1.9
8.2
6.5
0.7

750,076
548,722
91,743
74,598
35,013
109,677

599,597
395,939
92,536
77,957
33,165
90,786

618,728
410,494
93,124
82,746
32,363
102,488

684,123
465,313
93,458
84,607
40,745
106,998

...
...
...
...
...
...

8.3
9.4
6.7
-1.1
21.8
15.0

5.0
5.7
6.9
5.3
-7.6
13.5

63,938
38,382
22,139
3,417

80,928
43,358
7,738
29,832

61,826
51,657
4,007
6,162

79,419
53,841
23,565
2,013

104,077
56,923
25,653
21,501

6.8
-23.2
43.8
288.5

-21.9
-23.2
-29.9
13.6

687
523
4
112

518
484
4
13

566
532
21
0

698
670
3
0

830
721
14
0

21.8
11.3
133.3
...

13.9
23.1
18.2
18.0

119,200
844
141,233

88,831
612
145,149

98,863
697
141,841

140,819
938
150,127

148,106
1,049
141,188

21.0
17.9
2.7

23.1
17.5
4.8

302,701
23,885

282,847
24,371

293,091
23,777

348,257
25,970

322,435
23,516

2.3
5.8

-0.4
14.4

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

III
98

IV
98

I
99

% change versusyear ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
98

II
98

805.1
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.1

809.7
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.5

814.7
1.1
2.9
1.7
3.9

820
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.2

825.3
1.1
2.9
1.8
4.2

2.5
-3.5
0.3
2.7
35.9

2.3
1.6
0.4
-0.4
29.1

17,358
10,770
753
235
3,748
3,359
21,562

17,669
11,014
769
242
3,782
3,401
21,823

18,006
11,273
786
250
3,824
3,446
22,100

18,374
11,549
803
257
3,876
3,495
22,407

18,739
11,822
821
265
3,928
3,544
22,705

8.0
9.8
9.0
12.7
4.8
5.5
5.3

7.0
8.7
8.5
11.2
3.7
5.2
4.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

2,347.2
2,261.7
85.5
4.1

2,333.6
2,246.6
87.0
3.9

2,351.5
2,265.7
85.8
4.0

2,359.2
2,272.1
87.1
4.2

2,376.4
2,286.6
89.8
4.3

6.9
6.9
7.0
-2.3

5.7
6.0
-1.5
-7.1

2,150.6
12.6
151.1
218.7
167.0
51.7
105.2
68.3
520.7
113.1
407.6
143.9
647.1
351.3
45.0
306.3
168.0
39.9

2,097.3
12.5
149.8
217.1
166.1
51.0
104.5
67.3
509.0
112.5
396.5
142.5
625.0
336.9
44.4
292.5
154.8
40.1

2,125.7
12.5
150.5
217.4
166.1
51.3
103.7
66.5
511.4
113.3
398.1
143.5
634.6
352.1
44.1
308.0
169.3
40.1

2,143.4
12.4
152.4
217.6
166.4
51.2
104.9
67.6
516.5
114.4
402.1
144.2
641.3
354.1
43.6
310.5
170.8
40.3

2,146.1
12.5
153.1
217.6
166.6
51.0
105.6
68.2
515.9
114.0
401.9
144.6
644.0
352.8
43.9
308.9
169.6
40.6

3.5
-3.1
10.6
0.8
0.7
1.2
6.3
6.7
4.0
4.8
3.8
4.5
3.3
0.8
-0.2
0.9
-0.8
0.5

4.3
-6.5
10.1
3.0
3.5
1.4
5.4
6.7
3.6
4.5
3.3
8.4
4.9
1.5
0.9
1.5
0.6
-3.0

17.04
14.39
12.48
17.97
11.54
13.33

16.84
14.29
12.65
17.87
11.78
13.59

16.48
14.15
12.64
17.70
11.69
13.25

16.31
14.20
12.65
17.58
11.60
13.23

16.87
14.43
12.58
17.29
11.82
13.24

-2.4
-2.2
5.7
0.0
3.2
0.4

3.4
-0.4
5.7
-1.7
0.4
0.6

4,671,970
3,480,913
538,350
448,793
203,914
213,993
375,687
177,332
5,324
268,968
909,060
72,562
102,778

3,704,568
2,498,015
546,765
456,508
203,280
212,636
403,981
183,479
62,445
242,623
713,662
66,450
151,272

3,865,616
2,623,883
550,242
494,284
197,208
217,837
358,673
182,719
73,229
261,056
789,090
76,085
199,969

4,338,502
3,014,046
552,213
520,227
252,016
240,588
367,532
182,132
73,851
280,588
886,419
74,268
217,020

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

8.9
8.8
7.4
4.1
25.2
23.9
1.3
10.3
-7.9
8.2
15.8
-23.9
3.5

6.3
6.9
6.6
7.5
-4.5
14.9
2.5
12.3
-6.6
21.0
15.6
-26.8
3.9

705,793
449,816
145,506
110,471

708,296
447,853
98,373
162,070

629,118
482,866
108,376
37,876

959,715
653,388
199,639
106,688

920,622
616,151
140,862
163,609

-7.7
-2.6
-45.8
55.1

-4.4
-1.4
-27.0
45.5

4,865
3,684
43
1,138

5,264
3,772
88
1,404

4,708
3,919
72
717

6,015
5,521
89
405

6,055
4,849
87
1,119

5.8
0.6
74.0
31.2

11.4
14.3
46.9
6.4

1,834
1,442
20
372

1,434
1,090
20
324

1,560
1,227
22
311

2,062
1,688
11
363

2,069
1,682
22
365

-4.1
-3.2
-21.4
-6.4

-4.9
-2.2
-4.3
-15.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

P AG E T HI RT EEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
98

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

4652.8
9.8
19.2
9.4
23.7

4686.3
9.8
19.2
9.4
23.7

4719.5
10.0
19.4
9.4
23.0

4752.2
9.8
19.3
9.5
22.6

4784.8
9.9
19.4
9.5
22.7

2.8
0.6
1.1
1.7
-3.9

2.9
0.6
1.5
2.5
-2.0

104,579
74,100
5,222
265
17,724
17,713

106,215
75,353
5,297
266
17,978
17,916

108,067
76,782
5,383
268
18,278
18,123

110,239
78,600
5,492
270
18,560
18,301

112,498
80,347
5,609
271
18,836
18,654

7.6
8.4
7.4
2.4
6.3
5.3

7.2
8.2
7.2
1.4
5.2
5.3

61,130
5,798
7,483
354
7,129
22,477
29,438

62,680
5,897
7,691
424
7,266
22,665
29,777

64,368
5,993
7,683
296
7,387
22,898
30,229

65,594
6,043
7,999
416
7,584
23,198
30,622

...
...
...
...
...
23,512
...

9.7
6.1
10.3
32.5
9.3
4.6
5.6

10.0
5.8
8.8
1.6
9.2
4.2
5.2

TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
DEC
98
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

MAR
99

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JAN
99

FEB
99

APR
99

758,343
77,558
228,584
452,201
171,277
45,639
113,806
11,832

967,549
89,845
238,376
639,328
254,419
59,635
171,113
23,671

966,722
103,079
250,467
613,176
303,431
71,002
195,675
36,754

1,522,328
168,709
522,605
831,014
430,130
89,602
280,232
60,296

1,619,436
162,317
489,592
967,527
296,143
59,147
192,025
44,971

-9.5
-16.2
-14.2
-5.7
-22.6
-3.5
-29.3
-9.4

2.5
-3.4
-4.2
7.5
-6.0
-1.8
-10.6
10.2

801,502
2,210,322
842,514

762,697
2,074,987
822,368

720,518
1,961,302
746,785

844,049
2,173,695
891,834

...
...
...

5.1
6.5
11.1

9.6
1.4
4.5

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PAGE FOURTEEN

DEC
98

JAN
99

FEB
99

MAR
99

APR
99

163.9
160.7

164.3
161.0

164.5
161.1

165.0
161.4

166.2
162.7

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.3
2.3

1.7
1.5

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix*
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
98

II
98

III
98

IV
98

I
99

176.7
163.3
161.9
158.5

180.1
164.2
162.8
159.4

179.7
165.1
163.4
160.0

181.5
165.8
164.0
160.7

n/a
167.3
164.6
161.2

2.3
2.4
1.7
1.7

112.3
112.3

112.6
112.6

112.9
112.8

113.1
113.1

113.5
113.5

1.0
1.0
1.1
0.8
*series discontinued

3.0
2.0
1.6
1.5

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