J A N U A R Y

1 9 9 9

W I N T E R

1999 00 OUTLOOK
Reprinted from the Economic Outlook 1999-2000 Luncheon, a talk presented
to Tucson community leaders on December 11, 1998.
Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director

Can Prosperity Continue with
the World in Financial Crisis?
The recent crisis in credit markets radically changed perceptions of risk,
and chances of recession rose sharply. Quick action by the Federal Reserve
to lower short-term interest rates soothed fears and money is once again
flowing into secondary credit markets, but things are not back to normal.
Consensus forecasts for 1999 nationwide have ratcheted downward and so
have our forecasts for Arizona. We don’t expect recession, just slower growth.
In fact, the shock to credit markets may turn out to be a positive for the
economy over the long run, as the bubble that was developing in early 1998
has been deflated.

E

conomists and investors alike are
suffering whiplash following recent
turbulence in financial markets. The
stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones
Industrial Average Index (DJIA), fell by 20%
from its peak in mid-July to early October.
Then during a period of only six weeks,
stocks soared back to recover most of those
losses. On the surface, it might appear that
things are back to normal, but the DJIA
doesn’t begin to tell the whole story.
It is a fascinating story of credit flows that
underscores how quickly money can move
around the world with a computer keystroke.
Earlier this decade, capital flowed freely into
Asian countries to support rapid development
of infrastructure and new businesses. This

eventually resulted in overcapacity in a number of industries ranging from automobiles to
semiconductors. Some Asian countries were
unable to support their currency regimes
and were forced to devalue their currencies,
which plunged their economies into recession.

I S S U E

The Asian contagion has spread outside of
that region, and as 1998 draws to a close
nearly 40% of the world’s economy is in
recession. Overcapacity in a number of
industries has led to declining prices for a
wide range of goods — from copper to oil
to semi-conductors to computers. This is
basically a classic business cycle scenario
in which development of too much capacity
fueled by overzealous lending eventually led
to a correction. In many respects, what is
happening in Asian Countries mirrors the
U.S. during the late 1980’s.
Predictably, U.S. exports to these countries
have weakened considerably. But the “Asian
flu” also led to massive capital flight out of
these countries in favor of U.S. credit markets.
During this first phase, which stretched over
most of 1997 and 1998, the U.S. economy
benefited as financial markets soared. Longterm interest rates were pushed downward,
stimulating interest-sensitive sectors. In short,
the U.S. was awash in money looking for assets.
This helps explain why the U.S. economy grew
rapidly during the sixth and seventh year of
this business cycle, prompting analysts to worry
that a bubble might be in the making. These
conditions helped spur a new round of mortgage refinancing, a spending binge on the part
of consumers, strong new car sales, and a
boom in homebuilding. At the same time, inflation continued to recede due to falling import
prices and over-capacity in many industries.
Then in August, two events shook investor
confidence. The first was Russia’s default on
its debt, followed a few weeks later by nearfailure of the huge U.S. hedge fund, Long

I N S I D E

FORECAST TABLES ................7
ARIZONA
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS........................8

ELLER GRADUAT E SCHOOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT ION
THE U NIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

TUCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 1
Wages and Salaries
Per Employee, Arizona

EXHIBIT 2
Restaurant and Bar Sales
Growth, Arizona (Current Dollars)

EXHIBIT 4
Manufacturing Employment,
Arizona

Term Capital Management (LTCM). LTCM
took huge bets on interest rate spreads as well
as on stock prices of individual companies.
If LTCM had been allowed to fail, it would have
wreaked havoc on credit markets around the
world. Taking no chances, the Fed intervened
and orchestrated a workout package with
major banks and brokerage firms who had
lent LTCM money.
These events so shook confidence that many
investors, no longer able to evaluate risks,
decided to “disengage” by moving their money
into safe Treasury securities. It was a flight
to quality and to liquidity. In the words of
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, he’d “never
seen anything quite like it.” Yields on longterm treasury bonds fell by 1/2% to 4.7%
while yields on other instruments such as
corporate bonds fell but only a little and
yields on junk bonds actually increased.
As interest rate spreads between corporate
(as well as mortgage-backed issues) and
Treasury bonds widened, money flows into
these secondary markets diminished. The
market for high yield debt ceased to function
as did initial public offerings. Frightened that
a deleterious credit crunch was in the making,
the Fed cut interest rates on fed funds in late
September and again in mid-October and
mid-November.
Russia and LTCM brought about a significant reevaluation of risks — a psychological
break in confidence. With normal sources
of credit unavailable, corporate borrowers
turned to (more expensive) bank financing.
At the same time, large banks began tightening credit standards. In short, the cost of
capital rose significantly, which will have a
detrimental effect on business investment
as we go forward. The Fed’s rate cuts have

reduced spreads and money is once again
flowing into secondary credit markets, but
conditions have not returned to normal; the
credit “squeeze” persists. Only time will tell
if the Fed has done enough. These events
brought to a close the first phase of the Asian
financial crisis.

environment has changed and that next year
will be very different than 1997-98.
Next year should bring slower growth but
no recession. After a strong gain of 3.6% this
year, real GDP should grow 2-2.5% next year
followed by an even slower expansion of less
than two percent in 2000. Exports will weaken
due to poor prospects for Asian recovery.
Residential construction will fall modestly
as employment growth slows. Business investment will grow very little and consumer
spending will grow at half the rate experienced
this year.
Risks of recession grew significantly during
the crisis, but in the past few weeks the
probability has abated from 30-35% to more
like 20%, according to The WEFA Group, a
world-wide economic consulting and forecasting firm. For the U.S. economy to contract,
recession will need to spread from Asia to
Latin America and to Europe. If this were to
develop, recession in the U.S. likely wouldn’t
begin until the fourth quarter of 1999. The
best bet is for the U.S. economy to continue
growing, but at a much more modest pace
than recently experienced.

PAGE TWO

SECOND PHASE
WILL BE DIFFERENT
The second phase promises to bring much
slower growth to the U.S. economy due to
tighter, more expensive credit and depressed
exports. U.S. companies are facing a squeeze
on profits, which likely will lead to costcutting programs since they have little pricing
power. A number of companies have already
slashed travel expenses and capital spending
plans. Announcements of layoffs have surged
in recent months, particularly in the financial
services sector and among manufacturers,
to the highest levels since earlier this decade.
Confidence of business executives recently
fell to the lowest level in seven years, according to the Conference Board.
Forecasting in an environment such as
this is a perilous undertaking, as conditions
and perceptions change from day to day.
Uncertainties include such questions as
where will the hot money go next? Will credit
markets return to normal? Is there another
shock ahead such as a currency devaluation
in Brazil or China? Are there other hedge
funds disasters that we don’t yet know about?
Clearly, the risks are much higher than only
a few months ago. A key to the outlook is
how much lasting damage there will be to
confidence. At this point, we believe that the

THE ARIZONA ECONOMY:
RECENT EVIDENCE
Recent data for Arizona still shows robust
growth! The data only stretch through September, so it is still too early to see any effects
of recent convulsions in credit markets. Job
growth remains strong, consumers are still
spending with reckless abandon, population
growth remains at high levels, and housing
markets are booming. However, there are a
few indicators, such as merchandise exports
A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y

EXHIBIT 5
Job Losses in Manufacturing
March - September 1998

and orders for industrial goods, that are signaling a slower pace ahead.
First, the good news. In September, the
number of non-ag employees stood 5.0%
higher than the year before. During 1998,
year-over-year comparisons have consistently run in the 4.5-5.0% range, which ranks
Arizona as the fastest growing state in the
nation.
The unemployment rate has averaged only
a bit more than 4.0% this year, with rates

touching the mid-two percent range in metro
Tucson and Phoenix. Tight labor markets are
pushing up wages, although recent revisions
by BEA shows smaller increases than originally reported. Nevertheless, wages per
employee were still
growing by a robust
4.7% in the second
quarter of 1998
(Exhibit 1).
Retail sales gains in
recent months have been
running ahead of last year
by a strong 7.5% on a
12-month versus 12-month
basis, gains that reflect consumers’ buying binge. The largest
gains have been reported at
apparel and accessory stores
and at miscellaneous automotive, motorcycle and boat
stores. Sales at motor vehicle
dealers also have been strong.
Restaurant & bar sales have been even
stronger with 12- versus 12-month comparisons up a strong 8.3% and accelerating
(Exhibit 2). Part of the explanation for
recent strength may be the poor tourist
season one year ago as El Niño rains dampened enthusiasm for southwest and west
coast destinations and as the super-strong
U.S. dollar cut into the numbers of foreign
visitors. The jump in 1996 reflects a number

EXHIBIT 3
Exports from Arizona to the World, Top Destinations
6-month year to date comparisons, $000s
Destination

96 YTD

97 YTD

% chg

98 YTD

% chg

2,007,821

3,156,576

57.2

2,056,567

-34.8

Mexico

776,538

918,284

18.3

979,380

6.7

Canada

512,114

583,270

13.9

556,877

-4.5

United Kingdom

484,421

565,654

16.8

379,896

-32.8

Netherlands

100,388

828,900

725.7

319,441

-61.5

Germany

194,296

190,161

-2.1

237,736

25.0

France

155,071

202,507

30.6

211,368

4.4

Russia

2,788

9,809

251.8

78,242

697.7

Ireland

41,711

55,853

33.9

70,801

26.8

Australia

39,411

39,947

1.4

66,424

66.3

Brazil

32,269

54,817

69.9

64,326

17.3

$4,559,767

$6,975,746

53.0

$5,492,790

-21.3

Asian Countries

Total, All Countries

Source: US Department of Commerce, State Export “Zip Code” Database

AR IZ ON A 'S E CO N OMY

of large sporting events primarily in the
Phoenix area. Included were the Super Bowl,
college football’s national championship
game at the Fiesta Bowl, and professional
golf tournaments.
Residential construction in recent months
has approached 60,000 units at an annual
rate. That will make 1998 the biggest year
for residential building in the 1990’s. Totals
have been boosted by single family construction, which appears headed for 46,000 units
in 1998. Multi-family construction is little
changed from last year and may finish down
slightly. Both single family and apartment
construction were down slightly in September
from one year earlier, perhaps a precursor
of months to come.
Resale housing has been phenomenal in
1998, as the number of units sold soared
more than 20% to record levels in Phoenix
(nearly 50,000 units per year) and to a near
record in Tucson (9,500, up roughly 15%).
Mortgage rates below seven percent and
strong consumer fundamentals account for
the surge. Programs for cash-strapped new
homebuyers boosted starter home sales while
move-up and second home markets have
been strong. The average price of homes
sold on the MLS increased by 8.1% in metro
Phoenix during the past year and by nearly
five percent in Tucson. This price comparison
does not control for changes in the quality
or size of home sold.
Population growth remains at high levels
with an estimated 130,000 net gain during
the past year. Household formation, as
measured by the number of new electric
utility customers, slowed modestly during
the past year, but in recent months the pace
appears to have accelerated a bit.

PHASE 2 BEGINS TO AFFECT
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS
During the past year, strong consumer
spending, a boom in housing and large
increases in population have fueled Arizona’s
expansion. During 1997, manufacturing also
played a major role, but that has changed in
recent months. Effects of the Asian contagion
are now affecting exports and employment
levels among Arizona manufacturers. Exports
declined by nearly $1.5 billion, or 21%,
during the first half of 1998 (Exhibit 3).
Asian countries account for over $1 billion
of the drop. Exporters of electric and electronic equipment are most affected.
PAGE THREE

EXHIBIT 6
Price of Cathode Copper
and Arizona Mine Production

If exports remain at this lower level,
20,000 jobs or more could be in jeopardy.
So far, manufacturing employment has leveled
off after growing robustly in 1997 (Exhibit
4). Motorola and Intel reduced payrolls by
3,500 (EBR estimates), and numerous small
supplier firms have trimmed as well. These
cuts have been largely offset by gains in
aerospace and instruments manufacturers.
Compared to other states, Arizona is one
of eighteen states in which manufacturing
employment has not declined over the past
six months (Exhibit 5).
The Asian crisis also is being felt in the
copper industry, where prices of copper
cathode are below 80 cents per pound.
These are the lowest prices for copper in
real terms in many years (Exhibit 6). Copper
mining employment has fallen by 10% or
1,000 positions during the past year. Facilities
in the Globe area were idled recently and new
projects including the scheduled reopening
of the mine at Ajo may be postponed.
The fall in exports is reflected in a survey
of Arizona Purchasing Management Association members, conducted by the Economic
Outlook Center at ASU. In September, the
orders component fell to 47.5. A number
below 50 suggests that orders are declining
(Exhibit 7).
Confidence of business leaders and consumers alike suffered from the recent financial
crisis. In Arizona, consumer confidence
plunged to a reading of 101.2 during the
fourth quarter, down from 115.5 in the second
quarter. At this level, confidence remains high
and far above readings in the 50’s registered
during the last recession, but the large drop
PAGE FOUR

EXHIBIT 7
Purchasing Managers
Survey, Arizona

casts a shadow on future spending. Consumer
confidence will be a key to the economy’s
strength in 1999 (Exhibit 8).

THE OUTLOOK:
SLOWER GROWTH AHEAD
During the past year, strong consumer
spending and a boom in construction have
led the expansion. Both will cool in 1999
and 2000. The profits squeeze will lead to
increased layoffs across all industries. As
confidence falls, consumers will scale back
spending on housing, autos and consumer
durables as well as services to more normal
levels. The credit squeeze will curtail commercial development, which along with
reduced homebuilding, will lead to declining
employment in the construction industry. As
unemployment rises and the worker shortage
disappears, the upward pressure on wages
will moderate. The economy will continue
to expand but at a rate nearer to long-term
averages. Highlights of our forecast numbers
for Arizona include:
• Nonfarm employment growth will slow to
3.9% in 1999 and to 3.0% the following
year, following a gain of nearly 5.0% this
year (Exhibit 9).
• Retail sales gains will slow from 7.1%
this year to 6.0% in 1999 and only 4.9%
in 2000 (Exhibit 10).
• Population growth will continue growing
by roughly 130,000 in 1999, matching this
year’s increase, before slowing to 123,000
in 2000 and an average of 117,000 over the
following three years. In percentage terms,

EXHIBIT 8
Consumer Confidence Index
(1985=100)

population growth will slow from 2.8%
this year to 2.3% by 2002 (Exhibit 11).
• The number of residential building permits
will decline by 17% next year to less than
49,000 units. Further retrenchment the
following two years takes that down to
roughly the 42,000-unit level. This is a
“soft landing” for the construction industry
as activity remains significantly above levels
experienced during recessionary times
(Exhibit 12).
Year 2000 growth rates are weaker than in
1999 partly because of the Year 2000 computer problem. Y2K will boost growth slightly
in 1999 as resources are engaged to fix
systems, and depress growth the following
year as 1970’s-era Cobol programmers
return to retirement. Not all systems will
be fixed, however, and disruptions due to
computers failing to work will subtract from
growth. At this point, the U.S. appears to be
“in good shape” but other countries (Europe,
which is preoccupied with converting to the
EURO and Asia, which is mired in recession)
may experience serious problems.

METRO UPDATE AND OUTLOOK
The Metro Phoenix area, defined as
Maricopa and Pinal counties, continues to be
one of the fastest-growing large metro areas
in the nation as well as Arizona’s engine of
growth. Problems with measuring the workforce by county aside, Phoenix continues to
account for the lion’s share of new jobs. Of
the nearly 100,000 jobs created in Arizona
this year, 80,000 are in the Phoenix area.
A RI ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

EXHIBIT 9
Wage & Salary Job Growth,
Arizona

EXHIBIT 10
Retail Sales Growth,
Arizona

EXHIBIT 12
Total Housing Unite
Permits, Arizona

EXHIBIT 11
Annual Changes in
Population, Arizona

EXHIBIT 13
Wage & Salary Job Growth,
Arizona (Alternative Scenarios)
GIVEN THE
RECENT SCARE
IN FINANCIAL MARKETS,
THIS IS A PRETTY
SANGUINE OUTLOOK

With data through the third quarter, retail
sales are growing by 8-8.5% and restaurant
and bar sales are up 8.5-9.0%. Residential
permits, which are up 15-20%, are fueled by
single family activity, making Phoenix once
again one of the strongest markets in the
country. The unemployment rate has ranged
all year between 2.5% and 3.0%, reflecting
full employment and tight labor markets.
Next year should bring much slower
growth for metro Phoenix, due to the same
factors as cited above for Arizona. Commercial
construction activity may have already passed
its peak and the credit squeeze will adversely
affect funding for new projects in the months
ahead. Also, job losses in manufacturing are
primarily among semiconductor and electrical components firms and most are metro
Phoenix employers. This will adversely
affect confidence and consumer spending.
Look for metro Phoenix jobs to increase
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

by 4.0% in 1999 and 2.7% in 2000. Retail
sales gains will slide into the mid-5% range.
Building permits will drop 16.5% in 1999
and another 25% in 2000. Construction
employment will drop modestly. This brings
Phoenix down from its recent high-wire act
to growth rates nearer long-term averages.
Unless the export industry is harder hit, no
recession is expected.
Metro Tucson, defined as Pima County,
continues to experience moderate growth and
we expect relative stability to continue. It has
been adding 10-11,000 new jobs (as best we
can determine, given measurement problems)
and 18-20,000 new residents each year.
Although Tucson will be affected by declining
confidence and the credit squeeze, its exportbased industries will continue to grow in the
year ahead. Compared to Phoenix where jobs
are being trimmed in manufacturing, Tucson
employers Raytheon, AlliedSignal, IBM,

Bombardier and a host of other smaller firms
are continuing to expand payrolls. Tucson’s
call center industry also continues to expand.
This partially insulates the Tucson economy
from future economic downdrafts.
Moreover, the construction industry has
continued to operate in a responsible fashion
over the past few years, so potential cutbacks
in financing should have a small effect. For
example, only 200-some apartment units
have been permitted in 1998 and the supply
pipeline is again emptying after a surge of
permits in 1997. The total number of residential units built should remain steady or
even increase slightly in 1999 and 2000.
We look for 6,500-7,000 units each year.
Sales will moderate however, as confidence
drops. Retail sales gains will average a little
over 5% during the next two years while
restaurant and bar sales will settle in the
4-5% range.
PAGE 5

FORECAST RISKS
Significant downside risk exists for both
manufacturing and mining industries; in our
BASE scenario, both have a neutral effect on
the economy. If exports weaken even more
than we’ve assumed in the BASE case, these
two industries could be hit with large layoffs.
In our LOW scenario, some 15,000 manufacturing jobs statewide disappear by the end
of 1999 and mining payrolls dip by 2,500.
The losses drive consumer confidence much
lower with negative effects on sales and the
housing market. Retail sales grows by only
a little more than 4%, compared to 6.0%
projected in the BASE forecast. New home
construction would fall by 27.5% rather than
16%. Job growth registers 2.7% compared to
3.9%. That is only 57,000 new jobs compared
to nearly 81,000. We assign a subjective
probability of 30% to the LOW scenario.
On the bright side, Asian economies could
recover more rapidly, boosting U.S. exports
and prospects for manufacturing and mining.
Consumer confidence recovers (who watches
the news, anyway?) and consumers continue
their liberal spending patterns of early 1998.
Homebuilding declines only modestly, by
11.0%. Job growth continues at 5.0%, matching 1998’s strong performance. We assign
a probability of 20% to the HIGH scenario.
Exhibit 13 compares the BASE, HIGH and
LOW scenarios for nonag job growth.
Given the recent scare in financial markets
and the number of knee-jerk forecasts calling
for recession that immediately followed, this
is a pretty sanguine outlook for Arizona’s
economy in the years ahead. $
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Portland Cement
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Estes/Kaufman & Broad
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S WEST Communications
U S WEST Dex
PAGE SIX

I N C R E A S I N G

Employee Value
Certificate Programs from the
College of Business and Public Administration
The University of Arizona

BusinessBasics
An 8-day intensive certificate program for employees without
a formal business education. Choose from two sessions:
January 21-29, 1999 or May 20-28,1999.

Non-Profit
Executive Academy
A certificate program in management principles
for non-profit managers: March 8-12, 1999.
For more information:
Contact: Lisa Fahey, 520/621-2301
E-mail:

lfahey@bpa.arizona.edu

College of Business and Public Administration
McClelland Hall
PO Box 210108
The University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721-0108

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1998
110,963.80
8.8
23,612.40
5.8
45,667.40
6.3
4,699.40
2.8
91.2
2,079.60
5
370
4.8
137.1
5.6
219.2
4.9
1,709.50
5
498.3
3.9
643.6
6.8

1999
118,868.80
7.1
24,609.90
4.2
48,387.90
6
4,830.10
2.8
88.1
2,160.20
3.9
374.1
1.1
138.6
1.1
221.6
1.1
1,786.00
4.5
517.6
3.9
680.6
5.7

2000
127,328.40
7.1
25,705.50
4.5
50,669.50
4.7
4,953.30
2.6
79.7
2,225.30
3
375.9
0.5
135.7
-2.1
226
2
1,849.30
3.5
533
3
715.1
5.1

2001
136,487.70
7.2
26,917.40
4.7
53,445.40
5.5
5,070.60
2.4
77.4
2,290.10
2.9
379.7
1
133.8
-1.4
231.7
2.5
1,910.30
3.3
550.8
3.3
747.9
4.6

2002
145,656.10
6.7
28,078.80
4.3
56,509.90
5.7
5,187.40
2.3
77.8
2,355.50
2.9
383.6
1
134.5
0.5
234.9
1.4
1,971.80
3.2
568.9
3.3
781.1
4.4

2003
155,689.10
6.9
29,349.20
4.5
59,769.30
5.8
5,304.70
2.3
80
2,428.70
3.1
389.9
1.6
137.1
2
238.6
1.5
2,038.80
3.4
588.1
3.4
817.4
4.6

2004
166,536.30
7
30,696.10
4.6
63,363.60
6
5,425.30
2.3
82.8
2,506.10
3.2
398
2.1
141.1
2.9
242.6
1.7
2,108.10
3.4
608.9
3.5
854.2
4.5

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
77,626.60
9.5
26,355.50
6
31,574.20
7.8
2,945.40
3.3
66.3
1,473.90
5.7
280.7
5.4
104.7
7.8
169.5
4.1
1,193.20
5.8
359.3
5.4
468
6.4

1999
83,715.40
7.8
27,559.50
4.6
33,330.50
5.6
3,037.60
3.1
62.1
1,533.20
4
285.4
1.7
106.4
1.6
172.5
1.8
1,247.80
4.6
375.2
4.4
492
5.1

2000
89,713.60
7.2
28,731.70
4.3
35,100.80
5.3
3,122.50
2.8
53.4
1,574.90
2.7
283.4
-0.7
102.6
-3.6
174.2
1
1,291.60
3.5
388.8
3.6
512.3
4.1

2001
95,851.60
6.8
29,932.50
4.2
36,866.00
5
3,202.30
2.6
47.6
1,608.90
2.2
279.7
-1.3
98.7
-3.8
174.5
0.1
1,329.20
2.9
401.7
3.3
529.4
3.3

2002
102,277.80
6.7
31,169.90
4.1
38,736.20
5.1
3,281.30
2.5
46.4
1,645.40
2.3
278.2
-0.5
96.4
-2.3
175.2
0.4
1,367.20
2.9
414.4
3.2
546.7
3.3

2003
109,164.80
6.7
32,461.50
4.1
40,713.90
5.1
3,362.90
2.5
48.5
1,688.50
2.6
280.7
0.9
97.4
1
176.7
0.9
1,407.80
3
427.4
3.1
565.4
3.4

2004
116,820.90
7
33,882.40
4.4
42,896.00
5.4
3,447.80
2.5
51.3
1,737.10
2.9
286.1
1.9
100.5
3.2
179
1.3
1,451.00
3.1
442.1
3.4
584.3
3.3

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1998
18,002.00
6.6
22,094.20
4
7,311.40
5.4
814.8
2.5
15.6
327.9
3.2
51.8
2.7
19.9
1.8
29.2
3.1
276.1
3.2
70.6
2.8
105.1
3.6

1999
19,104.20
6.1
22,944.30
3.8
7,612.60
4.1
832.6
2.2
13.8
339
3.4
53.4
3.1
20.4
2.4
30
2.8
285.6
3.5
72.4
2.5
110.5
5.1

2000
20,371.50
6.6
23,952.70
4.4
8,022.60
5.4
850.5
2.1
13.8
349.1
3
54.9
2.7
21.1
3.3
30.6
1.9
294.2
3
74.4
2.8
115.3
4.4

2001
21,744.80
6.7
25,059.60
4.6
8,464.60
5.5
867.7
2
13.2
358.7
2.7
56.1
2.2
21.7
2.8
31.2
1.8
302.6
2.8
76.8
3.2
119.7
3.8

2002
23,132.70
6.4
26,147.20
4.3
8,911.00
5.3
884.7
2
12.9
368
2.6
57.1
1.8
22.2
2.3
31.7
1.6
310.9
2.8
79
3
124.3
3.9

2003
24,540.60
6.1
27,214.00
4.1
9,344.10
4.9
901.8
1.9
12.9
377.8
2.6
58.1
1.7
22.7
2.1
32.2
1.6
319.7
2.8
81.3
2.8
129
3.8

2004
26,124.10
6.5
28,340.70
4.1
9,834.00
5.2
921.8
2.2
15.8
389.3
3.1
59.7
2.7
23.7
4.3
32.7
1.6
329.7
3.1
83.9
3.2
134.1
3.9

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

PAGE SEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

70,375
47,875
22,500
32.0

70,975
46,775
24,200
34.1

76,300
49,100
27,200
35.6

73,750
49,425
24,325
33.0

66,200
49,650
16,550
25.0

2.0
6.1
-8.6
-10.4

2.7
5.6
-4.6
-8.3

37,600
0
2,800
1,800
1,300
10,900
1,200
8,600
11,000

36,000
0
2,800
1,800
1,300
10,400
1,200
8,500
10,000

37,400
0
2,800
1,800
1,200
10,300
1,200
8,500
11,600

38,600
0
2,700
1,800
1,200
10,500
1,200
8,600
12,600

39,500
0
2,700
1,800
1,100
11,200
1,200
8,700
12,800

5.3
...
3.8
0.0
-21.4
-1.8
0.0
0.0
23.1

3.6
...
15.9
0.5
-11.7
-0.5
-1.3
2.0
10.1

66,849
53,608
6,887
6,354
5,704
17,001

59,193
45,908
6,845
6,440
6,055
17,659

61,527
48,380
6,277
6,870
6,631
13,016

68,435
55,989
6,436
6,010
5,790
13,962

...
...
...
...
...
...

6.9
10.2
-0.6
-11.2
13.8
-17.3

6.5
7.3
2.4
5.1
16.0
35.6

16,165
8,025
7,412
728

13,155
8,153
2,238
2,764

14,454
7,871
1,066
5,517

21,776
6,636
6,151
8,989

11,852
8,583
3,187
82

-0.3
15.9
38.4
-96.2

-17.0
8.2
-48.4
34.7

91
91

96
90

105
105

79
79

97
97

19.8
19.8

12.3
12.0

71,025
67,850
3,175
4.5

72,100
69,025
3,075
4.3

72,125
69,100
3,025
4.2

71,625
68,525
3,100
4.3

71,700
69,000
2,700
3.8

5.4
7.0
-23.4
-27.4

4.8
6.5
-22.1
-25.5

42,000
200
2,700
3,300
2,100
13,400
1,300
10,800
8,200

42,400
200
2,800
3,300
2,200
13,500
1,200
11,000
8,200

42,700
200
2,800
3,500
2,200
13,500
1,200
11,000
8,300

42,600
200
2,700
3,500
2,200
13,400
1,100
11,000
8,500

42,900
200
2,900
3,500
2,200
13,700
1,100
10,900
8,400

3.1
0.0
-3.3
12.9
4.8
7.9
-21.4
3.8
-2.3

4.3
0.0
-10.6
4.5
5.9
7.8
-12.0
6.4
4.4

93,202
70,268
11,567
11,367
10,204
20,350

88,495
65,215
11,854
11,426
10,743
19,666

84,125
62,254
11,118
10,753
10,380
19,033

85,683
64,644
10,970
10,069
9,701
19,096

...
...
...
...
...
...

13.5
16.9
18.6
-8.2
17.6
21.5

5.9
8.2
6.5
-6.0
3.5
12.1

31,235
15,367
8,771
7,097

23,865
12,460
1,686
9,719

26,277
13,048
10,775
2,454

36,748
13,568
14,815
8,365

19,132
14,285
1,612
3,235

-5.7
-6.5
-66.8
1987.1

42.6
14.4
78.1
72.2

172
168

138
138

141
139

145
141

143
143

-14.9
-13.9

15.6
15.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

54,600
49,850
4,750
8.7

55,775
50,325
5,450
9.8

56,400
50,400
6,000
10.6

57,000
50,300
6,700
11.8

55,725
50,175
5,550
10.0

2.5
5.4
-17.8
-19.8

1.1
4.6
-23.7
-24.6

42,800
0
1,900
2,300
2,400
12,200
900
9,300
13,800

42,500
100
2,000
2,300
2,300
12,100
900
9,400
13,400

42,600
100
1,900
2,300
2,300
12,000
900
9,300
13,800

43,400
100
1,900
2,400
2,300
12,100
800
9,500
14,300

43,500
100
2,000
2,400
2,300
12,100
800
9,500
14,300

5.3
...
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
0.0
3.3
6.7

3.9
100.0
1.8
0.4
-0.4
6.5
-8.3
2.9
4.7

70,102
55,986
7,750
6,366
5,715
17,330

66,400
52,463
7,485
6,452
6,066
11,109

66,797
51,853
7,507
7,437
7,179
11,461

67,624
52,807
7,840
6,977
6,722
13,530

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.2
4.6
5.0
0.3
28.5
-2.1

8.7
10.2
6.3
0.0
10.8
3.3

12,180
8,627
262
3,291

9,500
8,222
637
641

13,172
7,608
4,010
1,554

16,967
9,541
1,058
6,368

13,526
7,166
5,808
552

-5.2
-41.2
256.1
23.8

0.1
-0.7
23.6
-16.7

83
81

97
97

81
77

95
93

84
84

-45.8
-8.7

-2.6
5.3

35,175
32,475
2,700
7.7

35,700
33,050
2,650
7.4

36,100
33,450
2,650
7.3

35,800
33,150
2,650
7.4

35,375
32,925
2,450
6.9

3.4
4.4
-8.4
-11.5

4.0
5.0
-7.4
-11.0

26,600
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,400
7,700

26,500
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,300
7,700

27,000
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,400
400
4,400
8,000

27,200
3,000
2,000
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,300
8,300

26,900
2,900
1,900
2,000
800
6,200
400
4,300
8,400

3.1
-6.5
5.6
5.3
0.0
6.9
0.0
2.4
3.7

3.8
-0.3
-1.3
4.9
5.2
6.0
0.0
0.8
6.6

44,143
34,023
6,031
4,089
3,671
12,581

42,164
32,153
5,791
4,220
3,968
14,910

41,392
31,465
5,292
4,635
4,474
16,323

41,067
31,763
4,809
4,495
4,331
10,427

...
...
...
...
...
...

2.1
2.0
0.6
4.2
33.5
1.9

1.4
2.5
0.8
-6.2
4.0
1.0

16,669
6,474
7,057
3,138

5,793
3,650
2,143
0

11,195
4,088
2,108
4,999

6,289
4,327
450
1,512

12,148
4,735
5,894
1,519

93.4
-6.8
...
26.6

9.5
-9.1
154.0
-17.6

52
52

39
39

51
47

43
43

39
39

-17.0
-17.0

-4.7
0.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

51,250
42,475
8,775
17.1

51,225
42,325
8,900
17.4

51,250
43,325
7,925
15.5

49,775
43,350
6,425
12.9

48,950
43,225
5,725
11.7

0.7
3.8
-17.9
-18.5

0.8
3.8
-13.9
-14.6

41,600
900
1,800
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,100
8,500
17,400

41,000
900
1,800
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,100
8,300
17,000

41,600
900
1,700
1,700
2,600
7,700
1,100
8,500
17,400

42,400
900
1,700
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,100
8,400
18,400

42,500
900
1,700
1,700
2,600
7,800
1,100
8,200
18,500

2.9
0.0
-15.0
0.0
8.3
4.0
0.0
0.0
5.7

3.0
0.0
-10.0
4.1
-1.3
1.0
-1.5
-0.3
8.3

65,999
52,539
6,291
7,169
6,435
9,907

63,787
49,354
7,376
7,057
6,635
12,310

63,847
50,898
6,514
6,435
6,211
11,385

63,228
51,084
6,168
5,976
5,758
13,881

...
...
...
...
...
...

8.1
11.5
13.1
-16.8
6.5
34.5

9.8
14.1
6.7
-11.2
-2.2
8.9

13,266
7,465
2,191
3,610

14,549
6,787
7,152
610

13,464
5,013
4,867
3,584

17,970
6,428
6,852
4,690

9,584
6,362
82
3,140

-35.0
20.4
-99.0
100.4

-8.0
0.2
-10.3
-17.1

82
64

69
69

50
50

61
61

60
53

20.0
10.4

12.9
-3.2

121,025
114,075
6,950
5.7

122,675
115,550
7,125
5.8

120,950
114,875
6,075
5

122,250
116,375
5,875
4.8

124,650
119,725
4,925
4

2.1
3.6
-24.8
-26.4

2.8
3.8
-12.1
-14.5

97,200
1,000
6,600
6,500
3,400
25,700
3,000
27,800
23,200

96,700
1,000
6,600
6,600
3,400
25,700
2,900
27,900
22,600

96,600
900
6,700
6,600
3,400
25,900
2,900
28,000
22,200

99,500
1,000
6,600
6,700
3,400
25,900
2,900
27,900
25,100

100,700
1,000
6,600
6,700
3,400
26,000
2,900
27,700
26,400

2.4
11.1
1.5
1.5
3.0
-0.4
3.6
3.0
4.8

4.2
1.8
1.7
-0.4
3.4
1.0
4.0
6.3
7.6

189,386
140,453
34,910
14,023
12,588
47,975

183,795
133,483
35,650
14,662
13,786
50,127

191,292
138,182
37,721
15,389
14,854
51,419

181,562
133,370
34,367
13,825
13,320
47,965

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.1
6.2
-3.7
-24.4
-3.1
-0.3

2.6
5.0
5.0
-18.9
-10.5
1.8

36,583
25,082
5,967
5,534

37,032
25,735
8,048
3,249

55,330
24,274
19,240
11,816

67,210
24,647
2,372
40,191

38,219
23,969
8,111
6,139

-33.9
-16.6
-64.3
-4.3

-4.4
-2.7
-11.6
-1.6

229
218

232
228

267
204

308
224

211
205

-15.6
8.5

11.5
21.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

1505.0
1464.4
40.6
2.6

1514.8
1473.2
41.6
2.5

1513.8
1469.5
44.3
2.7

1532.8
1483.5
49.3
2.8

1526.3
1485.4
40.9
2.5

5.0
5.4
-6.2
-10.7

5.8
6.4
-12.5
-18.1

1449.8
6.0
99.7
169.8
129.6
40.2
74.3
352.3
89.5
262.8
115.6
462.0
170.1

1431.9
6.0
100.5
169.9
129.6
40.3
74.5
348.0
89.0
259.0
115.7
457.9
159.4

1436.9
6.0
101.5
169.8
129.2
40.6
75.0
349.3
89.1
260.2
115.8
459.2
160.3

1474.0
6.0
102.2
169.5
128.6
40.9
76.0
352.8
89.3
263.5
116.6
462.4
188.5

1482.2
5.9
103.5
169.3
128.7
40.6
76.3
356.3
89.7
266.6
117.7
465.4
187.8

5.0
-10.6
7.6
3.4
3.3
3.6
6.1
4.5
4.1
4.7
8.0
5.2
3.6

5.6
-2.0
5.3
5.6
6.5
3.0
5.8
4.9
5.2
4.8
8.4
6.3
3.5

2,687,213
1,925,058
349,237
295,287
117,631
666,845

2,435,389
1,715,715
336,045
265,689
117,940
610,671

2,421,473
1,696,535
336,625
263,224
125,089
590,930

2,523,089
1,784,026
345,600
276,632
116,831
596,404

...
...
...
...
...
...

6.6
7.1
9.9
8.0
-9.8
8.9

7.5
7.9
9.3
9.2
-5.3
16.6

781,822
415,168
248,373
118,281

583,008
423,255
113,025
46,728

604,551
373,001
172,066
59,484

669,047
385,274
158,115
125,658

651,069
387,088
149,134
114,847

-0.9
2.3
-35.6
146.3

-5.1
-5.2
-3.1
-8.8

4,753
3,418
32
1,303

4,526
3,298
68
1,160

4,186
3,034
45
1,107

4,124
2,909
72
1,143

3,054
2,924
88
42

-24.5
11.6
57.1
-96.9

14.9
14.0
-4.7
29.3

670,259
4,334
154,651

747,301
5,024
148,746

673,470
4,528
148,735

586,596
3,979
147,423

656,925
4,584
143,308

19.5
16.6
2.5

23.2
14.8
7.5

2,719,688
43,861

2,768,030
43,580

2,623,694
43,435

2,351,397
43,354

...
...

7.0
7.0

2.7
1.6

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
97

IV
97

I
98

II
98

III
98

2862.1
6.9
12.3
5.4
16.4

2885.9
7.0
12.4
5.4
16.9

2909.7
7.0
12.5
5.5
16.7

2933.5
7.1
12.6
5.5
16.6

2957.2
7.2
12.8
5.6
16.6

3.3
4.8
4.1
3.3
0.9

3.3
4.7
3.7
2.4
6.6

71,747
52,555
3,616
-172
12,666
10,314
25,068

73,429
53,974
3,707
-172
12,909
10,426
25,444

75,094
55,382
3,797
-174
13,147
10,536
25,808

76,782
56,783
3,886
-174
13,399
10,660
26,175

78,471
58,184
3,974
-174
13,652
10,784
26,535

9.4
10.7
9.9
-1.1
7.8
4.6
5.9

9.7
10.9
9.9
1.0
8.5
5.3
6.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

368.5
358.1
10.4
2.7

365.6
355.5
10.1
2.6

368.4
358.0
10.4
2.7

368.3
357.1
11.2
2.8

371.7
362.6
9.1
2.3

2.7
3.8
-26.6
-28.1

3.0
3.7
-17.0
-18.5

320.2
2.3
20.9
29.5
23.1
6.4
13.5
69.2
11.2
58.0
12.6
100.6
71.6

311.8
2.3
21.1
29.5
23.1
6.4
13.4
68.8
11.2
57.6
12.5
99.7
64.5

316.1
2.3
20.9
29.5
23.1
6.4
13.5
69.3
11.3
58.0
12.6
99.7
68.3

320.2
2.3
21.2
29.4
23.0
6.4
13.5
69.7
11.3
58.4
12.7
101.2
70.2

326.7
2.3
21.1
29.6
23.2
6.4
13.4
70.9
11.5
59.4
12.9
102.3
74.2

3.5
-4.2
6.6
4.2
3.6
6.7
1.5
3.8
5.5
3.5
6.6
3.5
1.9

2.9
-1.4
6.9
2.8
2.1
5.5
0.1
2.9
5.2
2.5
5.9
2.4
2.9

590,975
406,424
86,316
67,250
30,986
107,582

570,343
392,863
83,055
64,338
30,087
101,752

563,452
384,087
83,199
65,819
30,348
93,219

570,821
390,113
85,417
65,606
29,686
97,183

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.8
6.7
6.5
2.7
-15.6
8.4

5.1
6.0
6.1
8.1
-12.1
4.0

101,196
55,728
35,089
10,379

72,508
52,946
14,762
4,800

74,113
39,223
20,106
14,784

118,386
49,532
55,370
13,484

70,663
43,612
13,311
13,740

-29.2
-35.4
-41.3
43.3

-15.2
-16.2
-11.2
-20.4

675
643
0
0

715
666
18
0

604
561
0
18

616
587
4
0

633
560
14
0

31.3
39.4
...
...

15.6
32.2
0.0
-32.9

146,412
967
151,409

139,737
1,015
137,672

110,500
820
134,756

109,123
816
133,729

100,094
761
131,530

0.1
4.0
-3.7

16.8
11.9
3.8

275,023
19,545

280,169
19,851

267,667
20,904

253,226
22,796

285,039
26,918

-1.6
28.5

-1.1
7.3

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
97

IV
97

I
98

II
98

III
98

797.5
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.8

802.4
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.9

807.4
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.9

812.3
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.9

817.3
1.0
2.8
1.8
3.9

2.5
-3.6
0.1
2.3
3.7

2.5
-3.4
0.2
2.4
11.2

17,036
10,479
728
221
3,743
3,321
21,361

17,311
10,675
743
226
3,792
3,361
21,573

17,584
10,868
757
231
3,842
3,401
21,780

17,863
11,064
771
235
3,890
3,444
21,990

18,141
11,261
786
239
3,939
3,488
22,198

6.5
7.5
8.0
8.3
5.2
5.0
3.9

6.7
7.6
8.1
7.0
5.4
5.6
4.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Real Property
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

2277.1
2177.1
100.0
4.0

2289.4
2186.3
103.1
3.8

2295.2
2187.7
107.5
4.1

2311.3
2201.7
109.6
4.2

2300.5
2212.7
87.8
3.6

4.2
5.0
-12.7
-16.3

4.8
5.7
-12.4
-16.2

2051.1
13.4
137.2
216.3
163.8
52.5
99.3
63.4
496.0
111.0
385.0
134.7
632.4
321.8
43.0
278.8
142.8
40.0

2023.8
13.3
138.4
217.0
164.4
52.6
99.3
63.0
490.4
110.5
379.9
134.8
629.4
301.2
43.1
258.1
121.1
40.0

2038.2
13.3
139.6
217.3
164.2
53.1
99.8
63.4
492.5
110.5
382.0
134.8
630.4
310.5
43.7
266.8
131.3
40.1

2085.2
13.2
141.0
217.2
163.8
53.4
100.5
63.9
497.6
111.0
386.6
135.2
634.7
346.1
44.5
301.6
162.8
39.4

2101.9
13.1
142.2
216.8
163.6
53.2
101.0
64.4
503.4
112.0
391.4
136.4
637.9
351.1
44.3
306.8
173.3
39.5

4.5
-7.7
6.1
3.1
3.0
3.3
4.2
3.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
5.4
5.0
4.4
3.0
4.6
5.2
-4.6

4.6
-2.0
4.2
4.8
5.2
3.5
3.5
3.2
4.1
4.9
3.9
6.5
5.7
3.5
0.1
4.0
3.9
-1.9

16.94
14.34
12.40
17.28
11.78
13.04

17.16
14.07
12.43
17.31
11.94
13.41

17.22
13.97
12.44
17.25
11.97
13.78

17.56
13.88
12.48
17.48
11.56
13.58

17.27
13.87
12.38
17.44
11.36
13.13

6.4
1.1
6.2
-1.4
-3.3
-0.5

2.4
2.2
3.7
-1.9
2.2
0.6

3,888,448
2,738,359
516,132
435,973
197,985
177,724
426,877
171,648
60,516
20,007
284,243
899,571
89,938
116,698

3,587,102
2,487,154
496,635
405,028
198,285
186,428
531,172
167,414
43,661
689
259,709
838,204
91,632
85,853

3,571,575
2,463,654
497,493
403,472
206,955
199,764
531,521
166,796
41,213
20,451
247,007
806,786
77,434
92,648

3,681,249
2,563,796
510,756
412,828
193,869
186,789
512,957
167,979
34,329
1,241
260,631
812,448
86,649
110,117

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

5.9
7.2
7.0
6.1
-11.6
13.2
0.5
-5.5
-17.2
-86.2
14.3
8.0
-25.0
-2.1

6.6
7.5
6.8
8.3
-7.2
2.5
5.4
12.7
1.5
-94.5
17.9
13.6
-25.1
5.2

1,009,116
541,936
315,122
152,058

759,410
541,208
149,691
68,511

812,556
474,126
234,238
104,192

954,393
499,953
245,183
209,257

826,193
495,800
187,139
143,254

-6.3
-4.6
-36.3
110.1

-5.2
-5.7
-3.8
-5.8

5,990
4,606
63
1,321

5,825
4,513
128
1,184

5,308
4,069
58
1,181

5,232
3,982
97
1,153

4,196
3,995
118
83

-17.9
12.1
45.7
-94.3

12.4
13.2
2.
44.6

2,102
1,674
32
396

2,065
1,642
22
401

1,962
1,608
15
339

2,067
1,707
20
340

2,230
1,846
38
343

-0.8
3.6
72.7
-22.7

-3.1
-0.1
7.0
-14.7

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZ ON A' S E CO N OMY

P AG E THI R TEE N

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

III
97

IV
97

I
98

II
98

III
98

4587.0
9.9
18.8
8.9
22.1

4618.8
9.7
19.0
9.3
22.0

4650.8
9.9
19.2
9.4
22.5

4683.2
9.8
19.2
9.4
22.6

4715.8
9.8
19.3
9.5
23.0

2.8
-0.1
2.7
5.9
3.9

2.8
0.4
1.8
3.3
-2.1

102,718
71,159
4,908
267
18,644
17,556

105,223
73,222
5,025
268
19,013
17,745

108,197
75,548
5,200
270
19,449
18,130

109,884
76,847
5,274
271
19,710
18,329

111,861
78,548
5,370
273
19,980
18,430

8.9
10.4
9.4
2.2
7.2
5.0

8.9
10.3
9.3
2.2
7.0
5.8

58,231
5,619
7,205
396
6,809
22393.2
28802.4

59,875
5,711
7,266
319
6,947
22781.5
29265.0

60,989
5,798
7,399
274
7,125
23264.3
29412.0

62,388
5,896
7,565
321
7,244
23463.5
29793.2

...
...
...
...
...
23720.5
...

9.5
5.8
7.5
-18.7
9.0
5.9
4.8

9.5
4.5
7.2
-19.3
8.9
5.9
4.9

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
JUN
98
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PAGE FOURTEEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

2,422,939
199,382
831,142
1,392,415
183,003
27,218
103,444
52,341

2,568,957
192,738
888,477
1,487,742
130,793
25,219
61,806
43,768

2,527,663
198,013
839,992
1,489,658
148,924
26,163
86,235
36,526

1,988,400
190,817
617,056
1,180,527
140,348
27,208
82,548
30,592

1,776,109
174,924
561,261
1,039,924
202,556
39,938
128,648
33,970

12.9
-0.8
-6.7
30.8
-3.5
9.8
-10.5
13.8

-1.4
-6.3
-2.8
0.2
-3.2
-4.6
-3.2
-1.8

703,250
1,918,975
787,729

684,036
1,840,613
792,868

710,723
1,923,079
813,510

703,819
1,924,130
798,190

780,534
2,074,952
...

12.7
-4.4
5.2

0.1
5.2
2.6

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

JUN
98

JUL
98

AUG
98

SEP
98

OCT
98

163.0
159.7

163.2
159.8

163.4
160.0

163.6
160.2

164.0
160.6

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
1.5
1.3

1.6
1.3

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

% change versus year ago for:
most recent most recent
quarter
quarters

III
97

IV
97

I
98

II
98

III
98

174.4
162.1
160.8
157.9

177.4
162.8
161.5
158.4

176.7
163.3
161.9
158.5

180.1
164.2
162.8
159.4

179.7
165.1
163.4
160.0

3.0
1.9
1.6
1.4

3.7
2.0
1.6
1.4

111.8
112.0

112.1
112.3

112.3
112.3

112.6
112.6

113.0
112.9

1.1
0.8

1.2
1.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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