O C T O B E R

1 9 9 8

THREE MILLION MORE
PEOPLE WILL CALL
ARIZONA HOME
BY 2020
Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
September 1, 1998

This quarter’s update pushes the forecast horizon out to the year 2020. Our
annual visit of the long-term shows
more growth and higher numbers
than what we published one year ago.
This reflects a higher trajectory for the
Phoenix-Mesa metro area. At mid year,
Arizona’s economy continues to cook
with only limited evidence that the
pace may cool in the coming months.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
AT MID-YEAR
The recent sell off in the stock market, a
major strike at General Motors, Monicagate,
political instability in Russia, bombing of
American embassies, falling exports and a
worsening situation in Asian countries have
had little effect on Arizona’s economy so far.
At mid year, most measures of economic
activity show continuing robust growth, with
capacity constraints and shortages of labor
being the major concerns. Strong consumer
spending and a soaring construction industry
are the factors currently fueling Arizona’s
rapid expansion.
Nonag jobs were 4.6% higher in the second
quarter than one year earlier, and that ranks
Arizona as one of the fastest growing states
in the country. Year-over-year job growth
slowed to only 3.8% last August before reaccelerating to current rates. During the past
year, nearly 90,000 jobs have been created.
In July, Arizona’s unemployment rate fell to
3.7%, matching its record low. Unemployment

F A L L

I S S U E

EXHIBIT 1
Tight Labor
Markets
Lead to
Skyrocketing
Wages
Wages & Salaries
Per Employee, AZ

in Phoenix and Tucson stood at astonishingly
low rates of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
Manpower Inc.’s net hiring strength index
stands near its cycle peak for metro Phoenix
as does the Conference Board’s index of help
wanted advertising. Both indicate continuing
strong demand for labor. Published estimates
of job counts are likely to be revised upward
next March. Inability to hire workers will no
doubt limit the size of those revisions.
The boom in home building continues to
amaze. Single family housing is being built
at a rate of 47,000 units per year. That’s the
fastest pace ever recorded — eclipsing the
previous record set in 1978. Adding another
13,000 multi-family units brings the total

number of new residential units to a 60,000
annual pace, the highest since 1987. Factors
supporting the surge include: (1) favorable
affordability enhanced by mortgage rates
under seven percent, (2) plentiful jobs and
rising real wages, (3) record high consumer
confidence, and (4) a very competitive lending environment that is spawning programs
designed to reach less-creditworthy borrowers.
Commercial construction projects also
remain at a high level and are adding another
element of demand for construction workers,
concrete and building materials. Office space
is once again under construction, in addition to
numerous hotel, industrial and retail projects.
The good news is that so far builders are not

I N S I D E
FORECAST TABLES ................5
MIGRATION FLOWS
FUEL DIVERSITY ...................6
ARIZONA ECONOMIC
INDICATORS........................8

ELLER GRADUAT E SCHOOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT ION
THE U NIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

TUCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 2
Manufacturing Payrolls have Leveled Off

EXHIBIT 3
Industry is Losing Steam

Manufacturing Employment, AZ

Purchasing Managers Survey, AZ

getting ahead of themselves, as vacancy rates
remain low in each segment.
Mirroring a national phenomenon, Arizona’s
consumers have been on a spending binge,
as evidenced by sales figures that have moved
up smartly since last summer. Narrowlydefined retail sales gained 7.8% for the 12month sum ending in May (12 months versus
12 months). That’s much improved from the
five-percent increase posted in May of 1997.
Restaurant and bar sales gains are now back
into the 6.5% territory, compared to only 4.5%
last summer. Given inflation of less than
two percent, these represent large gains in
volume. Factors supporting the recent binge
include booming mortgage refinancing activity that is putting more cash into consumers’
pockets, gains in real wages, and consumers’
willingness to tap recent stock market gains
to finance expenditures.
Tight labor markets are boosting wages
at the fastest pace seen in a decade. Privatesector wages and salaries per employee have
risen by seven percent during the past year
(Exhibit 1). Strong wage gains are contributing to large increases in aggregate personal
income, which stood eight percent above
year-earlier amounts as of the first quarter.
The “too-good-to-be-true” economy won’t
last forever, of course. Problems in Asia and
recent financial volatility may be starting to
have an effect. After growing by more than
one-third last year to $13.5 billion, Arizona’s
exports fell by 16% in the first quarter
PAGE TWO

(compared to one year earlier). Exports to
Asian countries fell by 30%. Japan is experiencing its worst recession in 50 years, and
other countries such as Indonesia, South
Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong and Malaysia are
suffering severe recessions. Some believe that
it could be a decade before these economies
right themselves.
The effect is becoming visible on Arizona’s
manufacturers. Manufacturing jobs, after
soaring last year, have leveled off in recent
months (Exhibit 2). Both Intel and Motorola
have announced layoffs totaling nearly 3,500
jobs (author’s estimate) in the Phoenix area.
This marks the end of the swell in high-tech
manufacturing resulting from the siting of a
half-dozen new “fab” plants in the Phoenix
area during the 1990’s. We have allowed for
a loss totaling 6,000 direct jobs by mid-1999
in our BASE forecast.

TIGHTER
LABOR MARKETS
ARE BOOSTING WAGES
AT THE FASTEST PACE
SEEN IN A DECADE.

A slowdown in the industrial sector is also
in evidence in a survey by the Production
Managers Association. Components measuring
both orders and production have been falling
since mid-1997 as the Asian turmoil began
to unfold (Exhibit 3). With data through
June, both indexes remain above 50, signifying
that the industrial sector is still expanding.
The national overall index recently fell below
50, and Arizona measures may soon follow.
Perhaps as a result of the announced
cutbacks, consumer confidence in Phoenix
dropped four points in July’s survey. Even
after the decline, confidence still remains at
a high level with a reading of 110.8 state-wide
(Exhibit 4). Additional declines in coming
months will be necessary to seriously affect
consumer spending. The study is conducted
by the Behavior Research Center for Stockton
Capital Management and Trust of Scottsdale.
Last but not least is continuing evidence
that population growth has slowed. The gain
in residential electric customers is clearly
past the bulge of 1996 when more than
50,000 new customer were being added
per year. Recent gains have been running at
roughly 43,000 per year – still a relatively
high level of new customers but less than
experienced two years ago. About half of
the reduction is in the Metro Tucson area,
although reporting peculiarities prevent
reading too much into the numbers.
The near-term outlook calls for a reduction
in Arizona’s rate of growth during the second
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 4
Will Confidence Move Lower?

EXHIBIT 5
New Supply Remains Well Matched to Demand

Consumer Confidence Index, AZ (1992=100)

Residential Units Permitted Per 1,000 Increase in Population, AZ

half that extends through next year. Further
cuts are envisioned among exporters, population growth will continue to slow, consumer
confidence will move to lower levels and
consumers’ recent spending spree will abate.
Construction activity also will retreat, although
the fall should be muted when compared to
the 1980’s. That’s because new construction
has been well matched to demand during this
expansion. As seen in Exhibit 5, residential
permits per 1000 increase in population
remain well below previous peaks that
resulted from speculative construction.
Having not soared as high, the industry faces
less of a fall.
Looking at annual averages, 1998 will go
into the record books as a strong year – even
better than 1997. Next year’s figures will be
more indicative of the more-moderatelypaced growth we expect in the coming months.
After adding more than 105,000 new jobs in
1998, next year should bring 85,000 jobs.
In percentage terms, that’s growth nearer
four percent as compared to more than five
percent. Wages will increase in the 5-5.5%
range this year and next. Retail sales should
increase by less than six percent next year,
compared to 7.7% this year. Although the
residential building boom probably has
room to run for a few more months, permits
should slow from 57,000 this year to less
than 50,000 in 1999 (see forecast table on
page 5).
Chances are growing that the U.S. economy
could slip into recession. In our CYCLE
AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

scenario, we assume that wage inflation
nationwide rises above five percent and that
the Fed pushes the Fed funds rate above eight
percent to prevent an inflationary blowoff.
The stock market crashes, which deflates
both business and consumer confidence.
Recession spreads to Latin America and U.S.
exports plummet. The result is a moderate
recession in the second and third quarters
of 1999. The Arizona economy generates only
50,000 new jobs next year (2.5% growth),
retail sales growth registers only a two percent
gain, and building permits plummet by 25%.
Over the longer term, recessions are assumed
to occur also in 2005 and 2010 (Exhibit 6).

FURTHER CUTS
ARE ENVISIONED
AMONG EXPORTERS,
POPULATION GROWTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW,
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
WILL MOVE TO LOWER LEVELS
AND CONSUMERS’ RECENT
SPENDING SPREE WILL ABATE.

THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Arizona continues to be one of the fastestgrowing states. Over the first seven years of
this decade, Arizona ranked second on the
basis of population growth. Rankings were
3rd and 2nd during the 1980’s and 1970’s,
respectively.
There’s plenty of additional growth on
the horizon. Our BASE forecast projects that
during the five-year period from 1997-2002:
■ Arizona’s population will increase by
637,700, or 127,500 per year. For the
entire decade of the 1990’s some 1.235
million new residents will be added.
That’s a larger gain than in the 1980s
(989,000) or the 1970s (944,000). By
the year 2000, over 5.0 million persons
will reside in Arizona. The State will gain
at least two and perhaps three additional
seats in Congress.
■ Some 418,000 new jobs will be created,
or 83,600 per year. Job growth will
average 3.9% (compared to 3.9% during
the 1980s and 5.5% from 1992-97).
■ Personal income will grow by an average
8.1% annually, and will exceed $150
billion in the year 2002.
■ Average annual wages will rise at a 4.6%
annual rate and top $35,800 by 2002.
Inflation in Metro Phoenix will average
2.9% per year.
■ Per capita income will rise to nearly
$29,000, an annual increase of 5.3%.
PAGE THREE

EXHIBIT 6
Slowdown Could Turn into Modest Recession

EXHIBIT 7
Population Growth Returns to Trend Line

Wage & Salary Job Growth, AZ (Alternative Scenarios)

Annual Changes in Population, AZ

By the year 2020, Arizona will have
added another three million residents, and
population will approach 7.7 million. That’s
about as large as North Carolina and Georgia
(the nation’s 10th and 11th largest states) are
today. As of 1995, Arizona’s population ranked
24th, and with the magnitude of change
predicted, Arizona will move up quickly in
the rankings.
Population growth varies significantly over
the business cycle as shown in Exhibit 7.
During the recession in the early 1990’s,

Arizona’s population increased by less
than 90,000 per year. From 1994-96, those
numbers rose into the 130-135,000 range,
as the economy soared. The forecast calls
for a slowing through the rest of this decade
to “trend growth” of roughly 125,000 in the
year 2000. Thereafter, population gains return
to “trend line” with increases approaching
150,000 in the year 2020. Arizona’s resident
population should break the five million mark
in 2001, six million in 2009, and seven
million in 2016 (Exhibit 8). $

S P O N S O R S
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee •
Arizona Portland Cement • Arizona Public
Service • Bank One Arizona • CB Richard Ellis
• City of Tucson • Coldwell Banker Success
Realty • Elliott D. Pollack and Company • Estes
Homes/Kauffman & Broad • Pima County •
Salt River Project • Territorial Newspapers
• Tucson Electric Power Company • Tucson
Newspapers • U S WEST Communications •
U S WEST Dex

EXHIBIT 8 Projections to the Year 2020
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Arizona
W&S Employment (000’s)
Population (000’s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

1,483
3,728
61,222
26,774

1,796
4,297
87,527
37,774

2,251
4,963
130,408
51,606

2,639
5,583
184,048
68,524

3,063
6,222
253,942
90,615

3,580
6,912
353,846
121,267

4,173
7,645
497,419
163,628

Phoenix-Mesa MA
W&S Employment (000’s)
Population (000’s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

1,013
2,293
41,107
17,333

1,225
2,662
58,994
24,977

1,577
3,123
91,680
35,711

1,805
3,542
130,412
46,918

2,088
4,005
183,367
61,999

2,408
4,505
254,545
81,591

2,755
5,039
350,441
106,870

Tucson Metro Area
W&S Employment (000’s)
Population (000’s)
Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

252
670
10,507
4,668

303
758
14,828
6,302

351
849
20,909
8,245

403
939
29,109
10,838

461
1,033
39,750
14,159

526
1,133
54,017
18,558

587
1,225
72,414
24,040

PAGE FOUR

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

F O R E C A S T

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

T A B L E S

1997
102035.6
7.9
22322.4
4.7
42958.2
6.3
4571.0
3.0
91.1
1982.5
4.8
353.3
3.9
129.9
2.9
209.4
4.7
1629.2
5.0
481.0
3.6
602.4
7.4

1998
110791.9
8.6
23568.7
5.6
45705.5
6.4
4700.8
2.8
93.8
2089.0
5.4
371.5
5.1
136.9
5.5
220.7
5.4
1717.5
5.4
504.2
4.8
646.3
7.3

1999
120310.8
8.6
24881.3
5.6
48583.3
6.3
4835.4
2.9
90.8
2175.4
4.1
372.8
0.4
137.9
0.7
220.9
0.1
1802.6
5.0
527.5
4.6
688.5
6.5

2000
130408.4
8.4
26278.4
5.6
51605.7
6.2
4962.6
2.6
83.8
2251.2
3.5
373.5
0.2
136.6
-0.9
222.6
0.8
1877.8
4.2
549.8
4.2
728.4
5.8

2001
140518.6
7.8
27629.8
5.1
54714.9
6.0
5085.8
2.5
82.1
2326.6
3.3
377.8
1.1
135.9
-0.5
227.6
2.2
1948.9
3.8
570.4
3.7
768.3
5.5

2002
150620.9
7.2
28917.2
4.7
57958.1
5.9
5208.7
2.4
82.2
2401.4
3.2
383.3
1.5
137.3
1.0
231.8
1.8
2018.0
3.5
590.1
3.5
807.2
5.1

2003
161374.2
7.1
30266.2
4.7
61338.6
5.8
5331.8
2.4
83.3
2481.2
3.3
390.3
1.8
140.0
2.0
236.0
1.8
2090.9
3.6
609.8
3.3
848.0
5.1

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1997
70666.0
9.8
24792.1
6.4
29301.0
7.2
2850.3
3.2
61.3
1388.6
5.8
267.0
6.4
97.1
7.6
163.5
5.9
1121.6
5.7
340.6
4.6
433.8
7.6

1998
77670.1
9.9
26373.2
6.4
31055.5
6.0
2945.0
3.3
65.3
1465.2
5.5
280.9
5.2
102.0
5.0
172.6
5.6
1184.3
5.6
357.6
5.0
462.8
6.7

1999
84336.7
8.6
27779.3
5.3
33102.2
6.6
3035.9
3.1
60.1
1518.7
3.6
281.0
0.0
100.9
-1.0
173.7
0.6
1237.7
4.5
372.8
4.3
488.8
5.6

2000
90896.7
7.8
29136.3
4.9
35330.0
6.7
3119.7
2.8
52.0
1560.0
2.7
278.5
-0.9
98.5
-2.4
173.7
0.0
1281.5
3.5
387.2
3.8
509.8
4.3

2001
97644.5
7.4
30497.3
4.7
37435.1
6.0
3201.7
2.6
49.5
1602.5
2.7
278.5
0.0
96.7
-1.8
175.5
1.0
1324.0
3.3
400.9
3.5
530.3
4.0

2002
104678.0
7.2
31865.0
4.5
39489.5
5.5
3285.0
2.6
50.2
1646.7
2.8
280.3
0.6
96.9
0.2
177.0
0.9
1366.4
3.2
414.0
3.3
551.5
4.0

2003
112085.0
7.1
33261.0
4.4
41559.9
5.2
3369.9
2.6
51.0
1693.0
2.8
283.7
1.2
99.0
2.2
178.2
0.7
1409.4
3.1
426.8
3.1
572.6
3.8

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1997
16863.1
7.0
21211.5
4.5
6937.2
5.3
795.0
2.3
13.6
316.9
3.2
50.5
2.0
19.6
2.3
28.5
1.5
266.4
3.4
68.6
2.5
100.6
5.1

1998
18089.1
7.3
22236.6
4.8
7288.1
5.1
813.5
2.3
14.3
329.6
4.0
52.4
3.9
20.2
3.3
29.5
3.8
277.1
4.0
70.6
2.8
106.7
6.1

1999
19467.4
7.6
23381.3
5.1
7727.5
6.0
832.6
2.4
15.0
341.1
3.5
54.5
4.0
21.2
4.6
30.4
2.7
286.5
3.4
72.7
3.0
112.4
5.4

2000
20886.9
7.3
24557.3
5.0
8232.0
6.5
850.5
2.2
13.7
350.6
2.8
56.0
2.7
21.8
2.8
31.0
2.1
294.6
2.8
75.2
3.4
117.2
4.2

2001
22309.6
6.8
25718.1
4.7
8708.6
5.8
867.5
2.0
12.7
359.5
2.5
57.0
1.7
22.0
1.2
31.6
2.0
302.5
2.7
77.5
3.1
122.1
4.1

2002
23720.9
6.3
26843.1
4.4
9162.2
5.2
883.7
1.9
12.0
367.4
2.2
57.7
1.3
22.2
0.7
32.2
1.8
309.7
2.4
79.4
2.6
126.9
3.9

2003
25150.6
6.0
27961.5
4.2
9593.7
4.7
899.5
1.8
11.6
375.3
2.1
58.5
1.3
22.3
0.7
32.8
1.7
316.8
2.3
81.2
2.2
131.5
3.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona.
AR IZ ON A 'S E CO N OMY

PAGE FIVE

RECENT MIGRATION FLOWS
UNDERSCORE ARIZONA’S DIVERSITY
Marshall Vest
Forecasting Project Director

Data from federal income tax returns show that the gross flows of
migrants are two to three times the net amounts we regularly report.

A

rizona’s population growth this business
expansion has been extraordinary. In
percentage terms, the increases are
smaller than in prior business cycle upturns,
but the numbers of people are huge. During
the past five years, the average annual
increase is more than 133,000 people. Even
more remarkable is that these high levels
have been sustained for such a long time.
Data from the Internal Revenue Service
provides an estimate of the gross flows of
in- and out-migrants – and where they come
from. A comparison of federal income tax
returns for 1995 and 1996 shows that nearly
187,000 people moved into Arizona in 1996
(Exhibit 1). Another 128,000 moved out of
the state, for a net effect of 59,000. Therefore,
the gross flows associated with population
growth are 2-3 times the net gain. This
means that over a five-year period Arizona
could have nearly a million newcomers —
people who need to be informed about the
issues facing the state.
The net increase from income tax records
(59,000) is smaller than the 133,000 total
change for two reasons: not all households

PAGE SIX

file income tax returns, and natural increase
(births minus deaths) adds roughly 40,000
per year to the standing population. These data
are compiled by comparing social security
numbers for 1995 and 1996 from all federal
tax returns. A taxpayer that filed in, say,
California in 1995 and then filed in Arizona
in 1996 is counted as an in-migrant into
Arizona and an out-migrant from California.
Included in the tabulations are the number
of exemptions claimed (excluding old age
and blind), which indicates the number of
persons in the household. Also noted is the
income reported on the return.
California provides the most newcomers
and is, in turn, the preferred destination for
many leaving Arizona. This shouldn’t be
surprising since California is so large and
since the two states share a border. In 1996,
California sent 45,600 people, accounting for
nearly one in every four Arizona’s in-migrants.
That same year some 22,600 Arizonans left for
California. The net effect is a gain of 23,000.
In and out migration from/to Texas, the
state providing the second-largest flows,
numbered 11,400 in and 10,600 out. The

third most important state is New Mexico,
which provided almost 10,000 in-migrants.
In return, over 8,300 out-migrated to
New Mexico.
Illinois, Colorado, New York, Washington,
Foreign destinations, Florida and Nevada
round out the top 10 states providing the
most in-migrants to Arizona. Whereas Nevada
sent nearly 5,100 people to Arizona in 1996,
over 6,100 Arizonans moved to Nevada.
Nevada was one of only seven states to which
Arizona lost population in 1996.
It is noteworthy that migrants, whether
moving into or out of the state, generally have
lower incomes than resident non-migrants.
Perhaps that is due to the fact that propensities to migrate are higher for young people
(who tend to have lower incomes). A second
point to note is that incomes of in-migrants
exceed incomes of out-migrants. Therefore,
the aggregate measure of incomes for all
Arizonans receives a small boost from
migration flows. (Median incomes of outmigrants exceeded incomes for in-migrants
for only 10 states). Median money income
reported by all Arizona non-migrating taxpayers in 1996 was $24,551 (Exhibit 2).
Median incomes of all OUT-migrants was
$17,289, ranging from a high of $21,909
for those who moved to Virginia to a low
of only $12,787 for those bound for Rhode
Island. For IN-migrants, median incomes
were higher for new arrivals from only four
states: Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey
and Virginia. The median income for all
in-migrants was $19,168.
The Statistics of Income data also provide
data on county-to-county migration flows.
In 1996, Maricopa County received nearly
129,000 in-migrants. That same year, 84,000
people left, so net migration was 45,000.
Maricopa County received the most inmigrants from Los Angeles County, followed
by Pima, Cook IL, San Diego, Orange, Pinal,
Yavapai, Foreign destinations, Coconino
and San Bernardino. The top ten destinations
for people leaving Maricopa County in 1996
were Pinal, Pima, Yavapai, Los Angeles, San
Diego, Clark NV, Coconino, Navajo, Gila, and
Orange County.
This tremendous turnover of population
produces a very dynamic society. New people
with differing values lead to ever-changing
attitudes about what is important. This underscores the continuing need to inform and
involve new residents in an on-going dialogue
of society’s vision for Arizona’s future. $
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 1
Top 15 States Supplying In-Migrants to Arizona, ’95 - ’96
Population
Inflow
Aggregate Flows – All States 186,898

Outflow

Net

128,111

58,787

Net
Rank

1 California

45,600

22,583

23,017

1

2 Texas

11,406

10,570

836

17

3 New Mexico

9,954

8,336

`1,618

8

4 Illinois

9,251

3,768

5,483

2

5 Colorado

7,645

7,326

319

26

6 New York

6,404

2,187

4,217

3

7 Washington

6,319

5,062

1,257

11

8 Foreign

6,243

3,977

2,266

4

9 Florida

5,166

3,963

1,203

12

10 Nevada

5,078

6,135

-1,057

51

11 Utah

4,832

4,090

742

18

12 Michigan

4,400

2,655

1,745

7

13 Ohio

4,377

2,797

1,580

9

14 Pennsylvania

3,770

1,840

1,930

6

15 Oregon

3,762

3,752

10

44

Can Prosperity
Continue with
the World in
Financial Crisis?
Find out at
The University of Arizona
College of Business
and Public Administration’s:

19 9 9 / 2 0 0 0
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
LUNCHEON

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income

EXHIBIT 2
Median Incomes of Arizona Migrants, ’95 - ’96
Top 15 Population In-flow States
In-Migrant

Out-Migrant

Difference

$24,551
19,168

$24,551
17,289

$0
1,879

1 California

19,452

15,754

3,698

2 Texas

21,153

19,547

1,606

3 New Mexico

16,292

15,071

1,221

4 Illinois

22,011

17,592

4,419

5 Colorado

19,054

18,683

371

6 New York

19,475

14,752

4,723

7 Washington

19,704

17,162

2,542

8 Foreign

14,187

18,507

(4,320)

9 Florida

19,855

17,561

2,294

10 Nevada

18,456

19,157

(701)

11 Utah

18,960

17,277

1,683

12 Michigan

18,434

16,899

1,535

13 Ohio

18,446

16,517

1,929

14 Pennsylvania

19,185

16,848

2,337

15 Oregon

16,869

17,721

(852)

State Non-Migrant
Aggregate Flows

Presentations by
Marshall J. Vest
Economic and Business
Research Program
Gerald J. Swanson
Economics Department
Mark Zupan
Dean, College of Business
and Public Administration

Friday, Dec. 11, 1998
Noon-2:00 p.m.
Westin La Paloma, Tucson
$35 per person
$325 per table of 10*
Reservations required. Call
621-2930 for information
and reservations.
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

P AG E SE VE N

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

58,100
47,675
10,425
17.9

64,450
47,150
17,300
26.8

68,525
46,200
22,325
32.6

70,375
47,875
22,500
32.0

69,750
46,725
23,025
33.0

5.1
10.5
-4.3
-8.9

-2.0
2.1
-11.5
-9.9

39,200
0
2,600
1,800
1,400
12,300
1,300
9,000
10,800

38,900
0
2,700
1,700
1,300
11,900
1,300
8,900
11,100

37,300
0
2,700
1,800
1,300
10,900
1,200
8,600
10,800

37,600
0
2,800
1,800
1,300
10,900
1,200
8,600
11,000

36,000
0
2,800
1,800
1,300
10,400
1,200
8,500
10,000

6.2
...
16.7
0.0
-13.3
4.0
0.0
2.4
14.9

2.1
...
19.8
1.4
-14.2
-1.4
-0.7
2.3
4.9

92,537
73,964
11,029
7,544
7,282
16,326

72,040
56,177
8,647
7,216
6,443
14,629

63,684
49,693
6,905
7,086
6,016
12,878

66,849
53,608
6,887
6,354
5,704
17,001

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.8
11.6
8.7
-2.2
9.4
51.8

7.0
7.6
3.3
6.4
14.0
44.2

23,987
10,428
2,862
10,697

13,594
7,515
5,013
1,066

21,167
6,483
13,379
1,305

16,165
8,025
7,412
728

13,155
8,153
2,238
2,764

-11.2
47.7
-49.9
-42.7

-9.1
-4.3
-30.9
66.7

116
116

94
94

81
81

91
91

96
90

92.0
80.0

-8.7
4.4

69,025
65,700
3,325
4.8

69,225
66,200
3,025
4.4

69,625
66,800
2,825
4.1

71,025
67,850
3,175
4.5

71,825
68,800
3,025
4.2

6.4
7.7
-17.1
-22.1

2.9
5.2
-29.2
-30.8

41,900
200
2,500
3,200
2,000
13,400
1,200
10,600
8,800

41,900
200
2,600
3,200
2,100
13,400
1,200
10,700
8,500

42,200
200
2,600
3,300
2,100
13,400
1,300
10,800
8,500

42,000
200
2,700
3,300
2,100
13,400
1,300
10,800
8,200

42,200
200
2,800
3,300
2,200
13,500
1,200
10,900
8,000

3.9
0.0
-6.7
3.1
4.8
8.9
-20.0
4.8
2.6

4.6
0.0
-8.9
1.3
7.3
7.4
-8.2
6.4
6.1

96,591
72,395
12,774
11,422
11,025
17,113

92,286
69,746
11,908
10,632
9,492
18,290

94,321
70,001
12,570
11,750
9,976
17,477

93,202
70,268
11,567
11,367
10,204
20,350

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.3
10.9
12.1
-1.8
10.0
19.0

3.5
5.6
4.4
-7.1
-0.7
7.1

30,689
16,254
859
13,576

18,143
13,462
4,009
672

20,684
12,499
4,829
3,356

31,235
15,367
8,771
7,097

23,865
12,460
1,686
9,719

-20.4
7.9
0.0
-42.0

33.6
17.8
59.8
42.8

182
178

146
144

149
137

172
168

138
138

11.3
11.3

16.7
15.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

53,525
48,850
4,675
8.7

53,175
48,850
4,325
8.1

53,175
49,125
4,050
7.6

54,600
49,850
4,750
8.7

55,500
50,325
5,175
9.3

2.7
6.2
-22.5
-24.5

-1.3
2.5
-26.3
-25.0

42,900
0
1,900
2,300
2,400
12,300
800
9,200
14,000

42,500
0
1,800
2,300
2,300
12,200
800
9,100
14,000

42,800
0
1,800
2,300
2,400
12,200
900
9,200
13,900

42,800
0
1,900
2,300
2,400
12,200
900
9,300
13,800

42,600
100
2,000
2,300
2,300
12,100
900
9,300
13,600

5.7
...
5.3
0.0
0.0
9.0
0.0
0.0
8.8

3.3
-80.0
5.5
-0.4
-0.4
5.9
-14.5
4.2
3.1

74,877
58,699
9,231
6,947
6,706
9,653

74,480
58,885
8,799
6,796
6,067
12,131

77,351
61,102
8,829
7,420
6,300
11,662

70,102
55,986
7,750
6,366
5,715
17,330

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.1
3.9
4.5
-4.7
6.6
59.4

9.7
10.8
8.9
2.2
9.1
11.4

14,046
8,594
4,276
1,176

9,262
7,155
2,107
0

11,285
6,692
4,299
294

12,180
8,627
262
3,291

9,500
8,222
637
641

3.0
5.7
649.4
-52.9

-28.8
2.9
-62.0
-61.6

90
85

79
79

76
76

83
81

97
97

34.7
34.7

-4.2
9.2

34,100
31,200
2,900
8.5

34,450
31,800
2,650
7.7

34,500
32,150
2,350
6.8

35,175
32,475
2,700
7.7

35,750
33,000
2,750
7.7

5.1
5.8
-1.8
-6.6

2.3
3.6
-11.5
-13.4

26,000
3,000
1,700
2,000
800
5,800
400
4,200
8,100

26,600
3,000
1,900
2,000
800
6,200
400
4,200
8,100

26,800
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,300
8,000

26,600
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,400
7,700

26,500
3,000
1,900
2,000
900
6,300
400
4,300
7,700

3.5
0.0
0.0
5.3
12.5
8.6
0.0
0.0
2.7

3.5
0.0
-5.6
4.0
3.1
3.8
-4.2
1.4
8.4

41,096
32,998
4,903
3,195
3,084
12,132

40,925
32,262
5,003
3,660
3,267
12,732

41,887
32,027
5,534
4,326
3,673
10,904

44,143
34,023
6,031
4,089
3,671
12,581

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.9
2.8
12.7
0.8
12.8
-13.3

2.4
3.7
2.2
-6.9
-0.7
-8.8

7,496
3,827
1,731
1,938

8,219
6,840
138
1,241

7,085
4,164
1,477
1,444

16,669
6,474
7,057
3,138

5,793
3,650
2,143
0

-66.3
-46.6
13.9
-100.0

-7.3
6.0
3.0
-47.4

42
42

57
57

42
42

52
52

39
39

-27.8
-27.8

9.3
16.0

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans.,Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

49,625
41,800
7,825
15.8

49,575
42,475
7,100
14.3

49,650
43,350
6,300
12.7

51,250
42,475
8,775
17.1

52,125
43,250
8,875
17.0

2.4
6.7
-14.5
-16.5

-1.2
2.2
-17.2
-16.2

41,600
900
1,600
1,700
2,300
7,100
1,100
8,000
18,900

42,100
900
1,600
1,700
2,400
7,000
1,100
8,400
19,000

42,800
900
1,700
1,700
2,500
7,400
1,100
8,500
19,000

41,600
900
1,800
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,100
8,500
17,400

41,500
900
1,900
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,100
8,300
17,400

5.3
0.0
-5.0
0.0
13.0
0.0
-8.3
-1.2
13.7

2.7
0.0
-6.1
3.6
-5.2
1.0
-1.5
0.1
7.5

52,228
42,607
4,335
5,286
5,102
7,305

50,810
40,195
4,690
5,925
5,290
5,068

51,416
37,203
6,162
8,051
6,836
7,350

65,999
52,539
6,291
7,169
6,435
9,907

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.9
9.1
-5.5
12.8
26.3
12.4

4.8
9.0
4.1
-15.8
-10.1
-7.1

16,218
4,341
9,479
2,398

8,698
6,423
1,100
1,175

23,821
4,680
4,362
14,779

13,266
7,465
2,191
3,610

14,549
6,787
7,152
610

17.3
12.1
200.5
-84.6

-7.5
-15.8
19.0
-18.1

40
40

62
62

54
50

82
64

69
69

19.0
19.0

-8.2
-21.2

122,525
115,700
6,825
5.6

120,550
114,425
6,125
5.1

121,050
115,600
5,450
4.5

121,025
114,075
6,950
5.7

125,375
118,350
7,025
5.6

2.3
3.7
-16.1
-18.0

2.1
3.1
-12.7
-14.4

98,900
1,000
6,000
6,600
3,100
25,000
2,800
26,900
27,500

98,900
1,000
6,100
6,500
3,100
25,100
2,800
27,400
26,900

96,900
1,000
6,500
6,500
3,300
25,400
2,800
27,200
24,200

97,200
1,000
6,600
6,500
3,400
25,700
3,000
27,800
23,200

96,600
1,000
6,600
6,600
3,400
25,700
2,900
27,900
22,500

1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-3.3
4.9
4.7

4.4
1.8
2.3
0.4
3.2
1.8
5.2
7.0
6.4

157,584
119,684
27,458
10,442
10,079
33,010

170,701
125,992
31,934
12,775
11,406
35,715

187,222
133,077
39,377
14,768
12,539
39,019

189,386
140,453
34,910
14,023
12,588
47,975

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.3
4.4
5.4
-10.1
0.7
17.4

2.2
4.4
3.7
-15.5
-10.1
-1.7

41,961
28,235
9,084
4,642

49,883
30,819
12,994
6,070

38,432
21,412
9,106
7,914

36,583
25,082
5,967
5,534

37,032
25,735
8,048
3,249

-43.0
4.0
-57.9
-84.6

-10.9
2.2
-3.5
-49.2

336
269

284
264

219
209

229
218

232
228

17.2
25.3

13.1
22.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

1,482.3
1,445.1
37.2
2.6

1,485.8
1,450.5
35.3
2.7

1,495.6
1,460.6
35.0
2.5

1,505.0
1,464.4
40.6
2.6

1,510.3
1,469.0
41.3
2.5

6.0
6.5
-9.6
-16.7

4.3
5.2
-19.6
-22.9

1,453.4
6.0
95.8
167.7
127.6
40.1
72.6
355.9
88.4
267.5
113.1
458.1
184.2

1,454.1
6.0
96.4
167.8
128.0
39.8
73.1
355.5
89.0
266.5
114.0
458.4
182.9

1,459.6
6.0
98.0
168.7
128.7
40.0
73.6
354.8
88.8
266.0
114.4
459.9
184.2

1,449.8
6.0
99.7
169.8
129.6
40.2
74.3
352.3
89.5
262.8
115.6
462.0
170.1

1,429.9
6.0
99.8
169.7
129.8
39.9
73.8
348.7
89.2
259.5
116.2
459.7
156.0

5.2
-10.4
5.3
5.2
5.9
3.1
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
8.6
5.9
1.9

5.6
1.9
4.4
6.0
7.1
2.6
4.7
4.7
5.3
4.6
9.0
6.8
2.8

2,754,315
1,943,664
343,425
344,266
122,961
577,045

2,457,271
1,660,906
349,429
321,177
125,759
540,210

2,663,071
1,876,323
344,088
308,275
134,385
548,804

2,675,197
1,925,058
337,222
295,287
117,631
666,845

...
...
...
...
...
...

8.1
8.4
6.8
13.5
-4.2
22.2

7.2
8.2
6.3
8.1
-5.2
14.8

620,655
393,914
146,683
80,058

608,012
427,933
99,742
80,337

683,611
382,054
199,358
102,199

781,822
415,168
248,373
118,281

583,008
423,255
113,025
46,728

5.8
3.2
6.9
32.1

-8.4
-4.7
-9.2
-23.1

3,850
3,533
0
317

4,567
3,725
16
826

3,222
3,052
29
141

4,753
3,418
32
1,303

4,526
3,298
68
1,160

22.4
14.2
750.0
1,281.0

25.2
20.1
-30.8
61.6

659,518
4,592
143,623

646,537
4,396
147,074

776,539
5,268
147,407

670,259
4,334
154,651

747,301
5,024
148,746

19.5
14.1
4.8

24.0
15.2
7.7

3,063,234
45,862

2,769,936
51,096

2,723,359
44,777

2,719,688
43,861

...
...

7.2
4.1

-0.1
1.2

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

I
97

II
97

III
97

IV
98

98

2,838.8
6.8
12.2
5.4
15.6

2,862.1
6.9
12.3
5.4
16.4

2,885.9
7.0
12.4
5.4
16.9

2,909.8
7.0
12.5
5.5
16.8

2,933.6
7.1
12.6
5.5
16.7

3.3
4.7
3.9
2.9
7.0

3.3
4.6
3.2
1.5
7.4

69,967
51,176
3,533
-175
12,362
10,137
24,647

71,767
52,552
3,615
-172
12,677
10,325
25,075

73,567
53,955
3,697
-172
12,981
10,500
25,492

75,348
55,346
3,778
-174
13,281
10,673
25,895

77,138
56,733
3,860
-174
13,587
10,852
26,295

10.2
10.9
9.2
0.5
9.9
7.1
6.7

10.3
10.8
9.2
2.2
10.1
7.3
6.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

367.80
357.4
10.4
3.0

367.30
357.6
9.7
3.0

369.60
360.3
9.3
2.7

368.50
358.1
10.4
2.7

365.80
355.6
10.2
2.6

4.5
5.4
-19.0
-21.2

1.4
2.1
-17.2
-17.3

324.1
2.3
20.5
28.9
22.7
6.2
13.2
70.4
10.9
59.5
12.5
101.3
75.0

323.1
2.3
20.4
28.9
22.7
6.2
13.3
70.2
11.0
59.2
12.5
100.8
74.7

324.7
2.3
20.7
29.3
23.0
6.3
13.4
70.1
11.0
59.1
12.5
100.9
75.5

320.2
2.3
20.9
29.5
23.1
6.4
13.5
69.2
11.2
58.0
12.6
100.6
71.6

312.2
2.3
21.0
29.4
23.0
6.4
13.3
68.5
11.2
57.3
12.6
99.9
65.2

4.2
-8.0
6.1
4.3
3.6
6.7
0.8
2.7
5.7
2.1
6.8
2.1
9.4

2.5
1.4
5.9
1.8
1.0
4.7
-1.4
2.6
4.9
2.2
4.9
2.3
2.6

628,631
425,209
84,437
85,546
33,439
93,076

601,909
404,519
85,914
78,018
33,458
94,711

625,758
431,908
84,600
75,487
33,763
93,405

587,572
406,424
82,912
67,250
30,986
107,582

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.2
0.5
3.0
8.7
-8.5
16.9

4.6
5.8
3.2
8.0
-10.0
0.7

85,954
47,505
26,975
11,474

81,355
59,028
16,864
5,463

76,371
51,939
19,127
5,305

101,196
55,728
35,089
10,379

72,508
52,946
14,762
4,800

-18.9
-1.7
-38.4
-58.8

-15.0
-9.2
-27.3
-6.5

494
474
20
0

527
521
6
0

476
452
24
0

543
543
0
0

589
571
18
0

50.3
48.7
1,700.0
-100.0

14.8
7.9
-7.1
237.0

115,009
833
138,066

118,617
856
138,571

129,187
902
143,223

146,412
967
151,409

139,737
1,015
137,672

29.4
24.5
3.9

19.7
12.7
5.6

341,553
21,839

315,201
22,223

293,561
21,110

275,023
19,545

280,169
19,851

-0.2
4.4

-0.9
2.0

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

I
97

II
97

792.8
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.4
16,750
10,280
714
219
3,696
3,268
21,128

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
97

IV
98

I
98

797.2
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.3

801.6
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.3

806.0
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.3

810.3
1.1
2.8
1.8
3.3

2.2
-3.5
0.1
2.3
-1.1

2.3
-3.2
0.3
2.6
-3.0

17,036
10,477
728
221
3,743
3,322
21,370

17,311
10,667
740
225
3,790
3,369
21,597

17,585
10,853
752
231
3,838
3,415
21,818

17,863
11,043
764
235
3,885
3,464
22,044

6.6
7.4
7.1
7.2
5.1
6.0
4.3

6.9
7.5
7.3
6.1
5.5
6.6
4.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE

A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Real Property
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s)
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

2,234.9
2,151.4
83.5
4.4

2,244.6
2,159.0
85.6
4.4

2,261.8
2,174.1
87.7
4.1

2,277.1
2,177.1
100.0
4.0

2,286.4
2,185.1
101.3
3.7

5.3
6.3
-11.3
-17.8

3.2
4.3
-18.1
-19.9

2,063.2
13.4
132.2
214.5
162.4
52.1
97.3
62.1
500.7
111.1
389.6
132.4
627.3
345.4
42.8
302.6
170.5
41.3

2,063.2
13.4
132.4
214.4
162.4
52.0
97.6
62.2
500.3
111.0
389.3
133.3
628.7
343.1
42.9
300.2
169.2
40.5

2,068.3
13.4
134.4
215.1
162.9
52.2
98.3
62.9
499.6
110.7
388.9
133.6
630.9
343.0
43.9
299.1
166.7
40.3

2,051.1
13.4
137.2
216.3
163.8
52.5
99.3
63.4
496.0
111.0
385.0
134.7
632.4
321.8
43.0
278.8
142.8
40.0

2,020.1
13.4
137.7
216.0
163.8
52.2
99.0
63.1
491.1
110.5
380.6
135.1
629.3
298.5
43.1
255.4
118.3
40.0

4.5
-6.3
3.4
4.2
4.5
3.2
3.6
3.1
4.1
4.9
3.9
6.3
5.5
4.2
-1.1
5.1
7.2
-1.7

4.5
0.2
3.7
4.9
5.4
3.4
2.7
2.5
3.9
4.9
3.6
7.2
5.9
2.5
-0.9
3.1
2.3
-1.8

16.92
14.82
11.85
17.02
11.43
13.16

17.28
14.76
11.90
17.19
11.35
13.19

16.96
14.70
12.08
17.01
11.19
13.50

16.94
14.34
12.40
17.28
11.78
13.04

17.16
14.29
12.37
17.07
12.15
13.60

10.6
-0.8
4.9
-1.3
6.2
1.8

-1.6
4.5
2.2
-2.1
4.6
0.9

3,984,086
2,769,220
514,088
499,542
201,236
194,243
362,751
165,150
80,166
-56
259,419
765,660
97,601
209,593

3,648,157
2,448,682
523,077
470,176
206,222
184,110
335,300
167,482
62,248
8,888
414,209
733,486
99,257
167,684

3,891,103
2,691,334
515,081
463,139
221,549
188,104
365,150
173,306
48,774
9,853
241,212
741,499
86,572
131,833

3,877,119
2,738,359
504,803
435,973
197,985
177,724
426,877
171,648
60,516
20,007
284,243
899,571
89,938
116,698

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.6
6.9
5.8
11.4
-4.5
6.8
-2.3
5.4
14.9
-93.0
14.4
21.4
-34.7
12.4

6.2
7.5
4.9
7.5
-6.7
-0.4
4.1
14.7
11.0
-96.2
12.7
11.3
-14.1
6.0

841,006
513,098
201,949
125,959

797,166
559,175
141,967
96,024

882,456
489,923
255,937
136,596

1,009,116
541,936
315,122
152,058

759,410
541,208
149,691
68,511

-3.8
2.8
-6.0
-33.9

-8.6
-4.3
-11.2
-21.0

5,020
4,599
83
338

5,721
4,818
50
853

4,311
4,058
94
159

5,990
4,606
63
1,321

5,825
4,513
128
1,184

22.7
19.5
573.7
1,133.3

21.4
16.6
-0.6
99.8

2,102
1,665
25
412

2,159
1,738
28
392

2,046
1,645
48
349

2,081
1,674
32
375

...
...
...
...

-3.4
-1.5
77.8
-14.0

5.8
10.3
18.8
-9.7

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
AR IZON A 'S ECON O MY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rent
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor's Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
97

III
97

IV
97

I
98

II
98

4,554.5
10.2
19.0
8.8
22.8

4,587.1
9.9
18.8
8.9
22.2

4,619.0
9.7
19.0
9.3
22.2

4,651.3
9.8
19.2
9.4
22.9

4,684.2
10.0
19.4
9.4
23.2

2.8
-2.2
2.2
7.3
1.6

2.9
1.3
1.2
1.2
-2.9

100,850
69,541
4,803
264
18,495
17,352

102,879
71,101
4,892
265
18,822
17,583

105,208
72,984
4,999
266
19,139
17,819

107,634
74,757
5,120
266
19,493
18,238

109,468
76,113
5,196
267
19,846
18,438

8.5
9.5
8.2
1.1
7.3
6.3

8.4
9.1
8.0
1.6
7.0
6.8

56,923
5,779
6,994
507
6,487
22,142.9
28,405.5

58,226
5,858
7,098
488
6,610
22,428.1
28,777.1

60,085
5,965
7,149
394
6,755
22,777.1
29,352.4

61,681
6,055
7,204
293
6,911
23,140.5
29,755.7

...
...
...
...
...
23,369.4
...

10.5
6.0
5.3
-36.4
8.3
5.5
5.6

9.7
4.9
5.4
-10.4
6.6
5.3
5.0

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
MAR
98
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

JUL
98

1,300,369
161,014
386,168
753,187
442,884
88,263
313,355
41,266

1,790,164
193,764
570,634
1,025,766
382,626
61,312
271,693
49,621

2,064,913
193,514
663,274
1,208,125
245,890
42,006
156,605
47,279

2,427,813
204,256
831,142
1,392,415
183,003
27,218
103,444
52,341

2,572,312
197,518
888,477
1,486,317
130,793
25,219
61,806
43,768

-3.9
-6.6
-11.0
1.3
-21.8
-6.5
-34.2
-5.5

-4.0
-5.8
2.4
-7.1
-5.2
-7.3
-4.5
-5.6

802,803
2,041,449
802,897

745,845
1,942,225
807,001

756,794
1,997,185
842,147

...
...
...

...
...
...

15.7
7.1
1.3

-0.1
12.3
1.8

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PA GE F OU RT EEN

MAR
98

APR
98

MAY
98

JUN
98

JUL
98

162.2
158.7

162.5
159.1

162.8
159.5

163.0
159.7

163.2
159.8

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
1.7
1.5

1.7
1.5

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

I
97

II
97

173.9
161.0
160.2
157.3
112.3
112.5

% change versus year ago for:
most recent most recent
quarter
4-quarters

III
97

IV
98

I
98

174.4
162.1
160.8
157.9

177.4
162.8
161.5
158.4

176.7
163.3
161.9
158.5

180.1
164.2
162.8
159.4

3.6
2.0
1.6
1.4

4.0
2.1
1.8
1.6

112.7
112.9

113.1
113.2

113.4
113.4

113.9
113.9

1.4
1.3

1.6
1.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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