A P R I L 1 9 9 8 ARIZONA’S ROBUST ECONOMY MAY STRENGTHEN IN 1998 Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director March 4, 1998 We’ve revised our forecasts upward again. Arizona’s economy was gaining momentum in last year’s second half and strong gains in manufacturing – coupled with a commercial building boom and rising real wages – promise to make 1998 an even stronger year than 1997. The major risk to this sanguine outlook is fallout from the Asian economic bomb, which could shortcircuit exports from high-tech sectors. A rizona’s economy, along with neighboring Nevada and other states in the Rocky Mountain region, continues to pace the nation on such measures as employment and population growth. Arizona’s job growth of 4.5% is second only to Nevada’s 6.5% gain during 1997. Utah follows in third place with a 4.2% increase. Arizona also ranks second to Nevada in population growth during the 1990s. During the first seven years of this decade, Arizona’s population has swelled by 835,000, an average gain of 2.9% per year. Last year’s population gain exceeded 130,000, a 3.0% gain. Nineteen-ninety-seven marked the fifth consecutive year of growth above long-term averages in Arizona. But rather than slowing down as one might expect, the pace was accelerating as 1997 came to a close. After a relative lull in the spring of 1997, retail sales gains moved up to a 6.5% annual gain in November (12 months versus 12 months). Consumer confidence remains near its high point for this business cycle, S P R I N G I S S U E buoyed by rising real wages EXHIBIT 1 and an abundance of job Manufacturing Job Growth opportunities. Those factors Arizona plus added discretionary income from mortgage refinancing, promise to keep retail sales growing in the 6.5-7.0% range in 1998. That represents a large real gain, given that consumer inflation remains below two percent. Nonag job growth accelerated during the second half of 1997, led by a surge in manufacturing jobs, which rose six percent above yearearlier levels. As labor markets continued to tighten, the index of help wanted advertising as measured by the Conference Board rose to new highs. The gains in manufacturing result thus removing a major source of stimulus from the myriad of new plant openings and (Exhibit 1). expansions that were announced over the With labor in short supply, especially for past 2-3 years. Led by Motorola, Intel, certain skills such as computer technology Microchip Technology, Raytheon and a host and other high tech jobs, wages are moving of other high-tech manufacturers, payrolls up at an annual rate of four percent. Private in manufacturing are expected to surge by sector wage gains have consistently exceeded 15,000 during 1998. That’s a seven percent public sector increases for the past three increase on top of the 5.5% gain during years running. Vigorous demand for workers 1997. With the boost from manufacturing, will push wage gains upward to 5.5% in nonag job growth will accelerate to 5.2%, both 1998 and 1999. Strong employment up from 1997’s 4.6% gain. Most of the growth and robust wage gains combine to announced new manufacturing projects propel personal income growth to 9.5% will be completed by the end of this year, in 1998 and 8.8% the following year (see so in 1999 manufacturing will plateau, forecast table on page 6). I N S I D E ARIZONA’S WIDENING INCOME GAP ......................4 FORECAST TABLES ................6 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS........................8 ELLER GRADUAT E SCHOOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT ION THE U NIVERSITY OF ARIZONA TUCSON, ARIZONA EXHIBIT 2 Arizona Merchandise Exports to the World and Asian 10 Countries*, 1993-1996 Dollars % Change % Change 1993-96 1995-96 1993 1995 1996 Total exports to the world 5,785,148,000 8,402,790,000 9,937,766,000 71.8 18.3 Exports to Asian 10 countries 2,265,050,074 3,437,165,257 4,451,637,170 96.5 29.5 Asian 10 exports as % of total 39.20% 40.90% 44.80% * The Asian 10 are China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Prepared by: Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration, Dept. of Commerce Source: Exporter Location Series, Census Bureau Buoyed by single family homebuilding, the number of units authorized by building permits surged from a 50,000 unit annual rate at mid-year to a 60,000-unit rate, matching the high point for this business cycle set in late 1995. For all of 1997, over 56,000 units were permitted statewide, a gain of 5.5%. Low and falling mortgage rates, coupled with strong job growth, are the reasons for home building’s resurgence. During this cycle, the new home market has successfully matched new supply to demand. Since overbuilding is not present and interest rates are likely to fall further, there is every reason to expect homebuilding to match last year’s levels in 1998. This is a very positive outlook as we begin the eighth year of this business expansion. In fact, it is almost too good to be true. What could go wrong with this sanguine outlook? IMPACT OF EAST ASIA ON ARIZONA EXPORTS A major risk on the minds of economists is the recent turmoil in financial markets (and economies) of East Asia. Realignment of currencies, which makes U.S. goods much EXHIBIT 3 Arizona Merchandise Exports to Asian 10 Countries* by Industry, 1996 and Projected** Percentage Shock to Industrial Production, 1998-99 (Dollars) Percent Shock 1998 1999 Exports to Asian 10 Countries 4,451,637,170 - - Manufacturers 4,352,281,656 -2.6 -4.2 Primary Metals 263,771,322 -4.8 -7.9 Industrial Machines and Computers 317,600,682 -3.1 -4.8 3,246,534,684 -4.8 -7.7 Transportation Equipment 210,558,191 -3.2 -4.7 Scientific and Measuring Instruments 108,844,029 -1.7 -3.1 Agricultural and Livestock Products 43,708,603 - - Other Commodities 55,646,911 - - Electric and Electronic Equipment *The Asian 10 are China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. **The WEFA Group, “The Risk of the Asian Meltdown to U.S. Industries,” February 4, 1998. PAGE TWO more expensive, coupled with recessions in the Asian countries, could bring about a collapse of U.S. exports to the region. Moreover, a flood of cheap Asian imports promise to make it even more difficult to sell (much less raise prices for) domestic products. As domestic inventories rise, production schedules could be scaled back and workers laid off. Consumer confidence surely would suffer and the economy could slow significantly. Because exports to East Asia comprise a large portion of its exports, Arizona was recently identified as one of the states most vulnerable to the Asian downdraft. Of Arizona’s nearly $10 billion worth of exports in 1996, nearly 45% was destined for one of these Asian countries (Exhibit 2). Moreover, exports to the “Asian 10” have been growing at a much faster rate than the total. In recent years Arizona’s exports to the world have been growing at nearly a 20% annual rate, but in 1996, exports to the Asian 10 grew by nearly 30%. During the first three quarters of 1997, Arizona exports already have surpassed the $10 billion mark, exceeding the total for all of 1997. Since the Asian crisis didn’t unfold until the fourth quarter, we are unable to judge its impact as yet. But still, we must ask, “What is Arizona’s maximum exposure?” In a “worst-case” scenario, exports to Asia could dry up entirely. Using the rule of thumb that $1 billion of exports supports 15,000 direct jobs, that means nearly 67,000 Arizona jobs could evaporate. To put this in perspective, last year, some 85,000 jobs were created in Arizona. So, if exports to Asian 10 countries were to evaporate, new job growth could be cut by 80%. Fortunately, not all exports will be cut. During the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, U.S. exports to Mexico fell 8.7% during the year following devaluation of the peso (at the end of 1994), and rose again the following year. In a special study, “The Risk of the Asian Meltdown to U.S. Industries,” the WEFA Group assumes that Asian exports decline 10% in 1998, remain at that level in 1999 and then resume growing again in 2000. In WEFA’s view, a shock of this magnitude does not precipitate a U.S. recession. A 10% decline in exports for Arizona means a potential loss of only 6,700 jobs. That is dwarfed by overall job creation and is easily manageable. Exhibit 3 shows the industries that are important in Arizona. The largest sector by ARIZONA'S ECONOMY EXHIBIT 4 Nonag Job Growth, Arizona far, “electric & electronic equipment,” accounted for nearly three-quarters ($3.2 billion of $4.5 billion) of the exports to Asian 10 countries in 1996 and is more than ten times larger than the second largest category, “industrial machines & computers.” The shock in percentage terms for this sector, according to WEFA, results in industrial production 4.8% below what would have otherwise occurred in 1998, followed by a hit of 7.7% in 1999. These percentages are calculated as the percent difference in an “Asian shock” simulation from the “baseline” forecast. Applying these percentages to Arizona employment in each sector suggests an impact of less than 6,000 jobs in 1998. Given the nature of Arizona’s exports, a case can be made that the Asian crisis might increase rather than decrease exports. Exports of electric and electronic equipment – produced by such firms as Motorola, Intel, Microchip Technologies, Sumitomo and a host of others – are components that go into products that are assembled in Asia. As recent declines in Asian currencies lower the cost of Asian products, those countries will export more final goods and that means they’ll need more components. Our BASE forecast does not explicitly address the Asian crisis, but our CYCLE scenario incorporates potential negative effects. We assume that 7,000 employees are lost in the machinery sector in both 1998 and 1999 and 2,000 in the year 2000 and beyond. An additional 10,000 jobs are subtracted so as to create a “worst case” scenario. That trims a full five percentage points from manufacturing job growth and 0.7 percent from nonag job growth in 1998. In 1999, manufacturing jobs decline by 6.2% and nonag jobs grow by only 1.5%. Outright contraction of the economy is avoided, but by 1999 Arizona would experience the slowest job growth since 1991 (Exhibit 4). SUB-STATE ANALYSIS Sub-state analysis continues to be hampered by unreliable employment statistics for counties. The problem stems from a growing number of employers who no longer provide the state with employment and wages paid within each county. These statewide totals are being rolled into one county where the home office is located. For most employers, that is Maricopa County. The effect is to boost reported jobs (and job growth) in the Metro Phoenix area and to seriously understate the data for all outlying counties. In Metro Tucson, for example, job growth over the past three years is reported to be only two percent per year, but in reality, growth is perhaps twice that amount. The Arizona Legislature is currently considering a bill that will provide the Department of Economic Security with funding to address non-reporting with an outreach program. The proposed effort is similar to the “BEL” Initiative, a pilot program originally funded from federal sources that was allowed to expire three years ago (about the same time as problems began to appear). If funded, it will take a year or longer to get employers reporting once again. And there is some question as to whether the historical data going back to 1994 will ever be revised. In the meantime, analysts will need to look to other measures to judge sub-state economies. $ S P O N S O R S OF ARIZONA’S NEARLY $10 BILLION WORTH OF EXPORTS IN 1996, NEARLY 45% WAS DESTINED FOR... ASIAN COUNTRIES. A 10% DECLINE IN EXPORTS FOR ARIZONA MEANS A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ONLY 6,700 JOBS. THAT IS DWARFED BY OVERALL JOB CREATION AND IS EASILY MANAGEABLE. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Arizona Portland Cement Arizona Public Service Company Bank One Arizona CB Commercial Real Estate Group, Inc. City of Tucson Coldwell Banker Success Realty Elliott D. Pollack and Company Estes Homebuilding Company Pima County Salt River Project Territorial Newspapers Tucson Electric Power Company Tucson Newspapers U S WEST Communications U S WEST Dex PA GE TH RE E EXHIBIT 1 Average Incomes of Families with Children (Dollars, annual) THE WIDENING INCOME GAP: ARE WE GETTING BETTER, OR JUST BIGGER? By Marshall J. Vest A new report gives Arizona a poor report card because of a wide income gap and declining real incomes for four-fifths of Arizona’s families. Bottom Fifth ’85-’87 ’94-’96 Middle Fifth ’85-’87 ’94-’96 Arizona 11,589 7,273 40,622 32,177 100,795 103,392 California 11,279 9,033 44,268 40,312 110,625 127,719 Colorado 10,281 14,326 42,648 47,797 113,507 131,368 Idaho 9,569 10,721 34,274 39,381 80,004 104,725 Montana 8,088 9,051 34,914 35,332 82,195 89,902 10,449 12,276 39,738 43,313 93,288 98,693 8,111 6,408 30,793 29,557 86,111 91,741 Oregon 11,440 9,627 40,848 37,588 92,471 97,589 Utah 13,517 15,709 41,802 44,846 91,826 110,938 8,868 10,116 40,559 41,277 104,131 112,501 Wyoming 11,578 11,174 44,677 41,073 96,260 94,845 Total U.S. 9,529 9,254 41,111 40,721 101,035 117,499 Nevada New Mexico Washington Top Fifth ’85-’87 ’94-’96 Source: Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 16-Dec-97 The U.S. is enjoying a period of prosperity not seen since the 1960s: seven consecutive years of expansion, record corporate profits, solid gains in productivity, a soaring stock market and near full employment. So why is poverty still rising? And why is the gap between high income and low-income households widening? A recent study by the Washington, DC-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities titled, “Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends,” provides estimates of the income gap for individual states. Arizona does not fare well; it has one of the widest income gaps and the gap is widening faster than in other states. During the mid-1990s, average incomes of the top 20% of families with children were 14 times higher than average income of the bottom 20%. That ranks Arizona fourth among all states. Moreover, the gap grew wider over the past decade. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, according to the old saw. Nowhere did the gap widen faster than in Arizona. The same holds true for the middle fifth. Average incomes of Arizona’s top fifth are more than three times the average income for the middle fifth, and that is the second highest gap in the nation. Moreover, during PAGE FOUR ARIZONA HAS ONE OF THE WIDEST INCOME GAPS AND THE GAP IS WIDENING FASTER THAN IN OTHER STATES... IN ARIZONA, REAL INCOMES OF THE BOTTOM FIFTH FELL BY 37.2% OVER THE DECADE. MIDDLE INCOME FAMILIES SAW THEIR INFLATION-ADJUSTED WAGES FALL BY NEARLY 21%. THOSE ARE THE LARGEST DECLINES OF ANY STATE IN THE NATION. the past decade only one state’s gap has widened more (Indiana). The data are based on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Public Use Files. Incomes were adjusted for inflation by using the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. The figures are based on before-tax incomes for families with at least one child under the age of 18. Comparable periods in the business cycle were used to eliminate business cycle effects. Exhibit 1 shows average incomes by quintile and year for western states. Arizona’s income gap is wide because the average income for the bottom fifth is one of the lowest in the nation at $7,273. One explanation is Arizona’s large Native American population living on reservations, where incomes are extremely low. Additionally, Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Texas all share a border with Mexico and all have wide income gaps. Other major ports of entry for immigrants such as New York and Florida also have wide gaps. One possible explanation is that immigrants from other countries often are willing to work for lower wages than residents, and this puts downward pressure on wages across the skill spectrum, but especially for low-skill jobs. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF A GROWING ECONOMIC DIVISION IN THE POPULATION? WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REVERSE THESE TRENDS? THESE ARE QUESTIONS THAT BOTH POLICY MAKERS AND ECONOMISTS NEED TO ADDRESS IN FURTHER STUDY. EXHIBIT 2 Change in Average Incomes of Families with Children from Mid-80s to Mid-90s (Dollars, annual) Bottom Fifth Dollars Percent Middle Fifth Dollars Percent Arizona (4,316) (37.2) (8,445) (20.8) 2,597 2.6 California (2,246) (19.9) (3,956) (8.9) 17,094 15.5 Colorado 4,045 39.3 5,149 12.1 17,861 15.7 Idaho 1,152 12.0 5,107 14.9 24,721 30.9 963 11.9 418 1.2 7,707 9.4 1,827 17.5 3,575 9.0 5,405 5.8 New Mexico (1,703) (21.0) (1,236) (4.0) 5,630 6.5 Oregon (1,813) (15.8) (3,260) (8.0) 5,118 5.5 Utah 2,192 16.2 3,044 7.3 19,112 20.8 Washington 1,248 14.1 718 1.8 8,370 8.0 Montana Nevada Top Fifth Dollars Percent Wyoming (404) (3.5) (3,604) (8.1) (1,415) (1.5) Total U.S. (275) (2.9) (390) (0.9) 16,464 16.3 Source: Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 16-Dec-97 IS ARIZONA THE ELLIS ISLAND OF THE SOUTHWEST? DOES THE TIDE OF NEW IMMIGRANTS (MANY WITH LOW SKILLS) SWAMP GAINS FROM THE CREATION OF HIGH-PAYING JOBS, SO THAT REAL ECONOMIC GAINS ARE WASHED AWAY? A R IZ ON A' S E CO N OMY A large gap between low and high-income groups is not in-and-of itself worrisome as long as incomes are rising, i.e., a rising tide lifts all boats. However, this is not the case nationwide and definitely not in Arizona. Exhibit 2 shows the change in average incomes in dollars and percentages for these groups over the past decade. In Arizona, real incomes of the bottom fifth fell by 37.2% over the decade. Middle income families saw their inflation-adjusted wages fall by nearly 21%. Those are the largest declines of any state in the nation. In Arizona, 80% of families with children experienced declining real wages from the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s. Only the top fifth saw incomes rise. Even so, the richest fifth in Arizona saw a miniscule increase of only three percent over the decade. Compared to other Western states, only two experienced a smaller increase (Wyoming saw a decline of 1.5%). These are sobering statistics that suggest a significant decline in living standards for most Arizona families. Why has Arizona fared so poorly during the past decade? What are the social and political consequences of a growing economic division in the population? What can be done to reverse these trends? These are questions that both policy makers and economists need to address in further study. The report clearly calls into question the theory that rapid growth raises living standards. That may be working in Nevada, the nation’s fastest-growing state, and in Utah (#3) but not for number two, Arizona. Is Arizona the Ellis Island of the southwest? Does the tide of new immigrants (many with low skills) swamp gains from the creation of high-paying jobs, so that real economic gains are washed away? It is possible, of course, that these data are just plain wrong. The public use sample is a sample after all and is subject to sampling variation. It is routinely criticized by researchers as suffering from small sample sizes (only 250 in Arizona) and faulty samples that do not represent the entire population. So, it could be that this data is not representative, and that incomes for the entire population grew much more rapidly in actuality. Other data sources must be examined to either validate or refute the findings of this study before the results are taken too seriously. We hope to revisit this topic in a future issue of Arizona’s Economy. $ PAGE FIVE F O R E C A S T Forecasts for Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change T A B L E S 1997 102,845.0 8.7 22,537.8 5.5 42,666.8 5.6 4,563.2 3.0 89.9 1,989.0 4.6 355.5 3.4 128.7 0.3 212.4 5.5 1,633.5 4.9 483.0 4.1 599.8 6.6 1998 112,641.1 9.5 24,008.1 6.5 45,328.2 6.2 4,691.8 2.8 90.6 2,092.6 5.2 376.1 5.8 133.8 4.0 227.5 7.1 1,716.5 5.1 505.6 4.7 640.3 6.7 1999 122,533.7 8.8 25,397.4 5.8 48,367.5 6.7 4,824.7 2.8 87.7 2,174.6 3.9 380.1 1.1 134.9 0.8 230.3 1.3 1,794.5 4.5 527.6 4.4 681.1 6.4 2000 132,295.5 8.0 26,727.2 5.2 51,187.9 5.8 4,949.8 2.6 81.0 2,246.5 3.3 383.2 0.8 135.2 0.2 233.0 1.1 1,863.4 3.8 546.9 3.6 719.8 5.7 2001 141,997.7 7.3 27,998.9 4.8 54,037.0 5.6 5,071.5 2.5 79.0 2,315.7 3.1 385.9 0.7 135.4 0.1 235.6 1.1 1,929.8 3.6 565.5 3.4 757.1 5.2 2002 152,123.6 7.1 29,296.5 4.6 57,095.2 5.7 5,192.6 2.4 78.6 2,384.8 3.0 389.6 0.9 136.9 1.1 237.8 0.9 1,995.2 3.4 583.9 3.3 793.9 4.9 2003 162,762.6 7.0 30,628.0 4.5 60,254.2 5.5 5,314.2 2.3 80.1 2,460.1 3.2 395.4 1.5 139.5 1.9 241.0 1.4 2,064.7 3.5 602.5 3.2 832.8 4.9 Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change 1997 71,479.2 10.1 25,146.9 6.5 29,053.1 6.5 2,842.5 3.4 67.3 1,391.1 5.9 270.5 6.4 95.8 6.2 167.1 6.1 1,120.6 5.8 337.2 3.9 433.1 7.6 1998 77,683.8 8.7 26,481.8 5.3 30,782.2 6.0 2,933.5 3.2 63.2 1,461.5 5.1 286.9 6.0 99.7 4.1 179.5 7.5 1,174.6 4.8 349.2 3.6 458.9 6.0 1999 83,580.4 7.6 27,678.5 4.5 33,071.5 7.4 3,019.7 2.9 57.3 1,512.3 3.5 290.6 1.3 99.9 0.2 183.1 2.0 1,221.7 4.0 360.9 3.3 485.2 5.7 2000 89,535.4 7.1 28,886.8 4.4 35,132.3 6.2 3,099.5 2.6 50.3 1,551.3 2.6 289.3 -0.4 98.8 -1.1 182.9 -0.1 1,262.0 3.3 371.2 2.9 508.3 4.8 2001 95,789.9 7.0 30,147.5 4.4 37,291.6 6.1 3,177.4 2.5 47.8 1,590.6 2.5 289.6 0.1 98.0 -0.8 183.9 0.6 1,301.0 3.1 381.0 2.6 529.6 4.2 2002 102,323.6 6.8 31,429.0 4.3 39,553.7 6.1 3,255.7 2.5 47.8 1,629.6 2.4 291.3 0.6 98.5 0.5 185.1 0.6 1,338.3 2.9 390.4 2.5 550.0 3.9 2003 109,277.1 6.8 32,763.9 4.2 41,968.0 6.1 3,335.3 2.4 48.6 1,672.4 2.6 295.2 1.3 100.5 2.0 187.0 1.0 1,377.3 2.9 400.0 2.5 570.7 3.8 Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change 1997 17,106.0 7.7 21,471.7 5.0 6,863.9 4.6 796.7 2.5 15.1 323.9 3.9 51.3 3.5 19.7 -0.1 29.1 5.9 272.6 4.0 69.9 1.3 102.8 5.9 1998 18,215.3 6.5 22,306.8 3.9 7,162.5 4.4 816.6 2.5 15.3 336.8 4.0 53.7 4.6 20.2 2.2 30.9 6.2 283.1 3.9 71.3 2.0 108.9 5.9 1999 19,444.9 6.8 23,249.7 4.2 7,621.6 6.4 836.3 2.4 15.1 348.6 3.5 55.6 3.5 21.1 4.4 31.6 2.2 293.0 3.5 73.5 3.1 114.8 5.5 2000 20,828.8 7.1 24,353.5 4.7 8,100.1 6.3 855.3 2.3 14.1 359.1 3.0 57.2 2.9 21.9 4.1 32.1 1.8 301.9 3.1 75.7 2.9 120.2 4.7 2001 22,244.9 6.8 25,461.3 4.5 8,592.9 6.1 873.7 2.2 13.5 369.3 2.8 58.5 2.3 22.7 3.4 32.6 1.6 310.8 2.9 77.7 2.7 125.5 4.4 2002 23,666.5 6.4 26,547.3 4.3 9,085.9 5.7 891.5 2.0 12.8 378.2 2.4 59.5 1.7 23.1 2.1 33.1 1.4 318.7 2.6 79.6 2.4 130.3 3.8 2003 25,113.3 6.1 27,631.7 4.1 9,578.1 5.4 908.9 1.9 12.3 387.2 2.4 60.3 1.4 23.5 1.4 33.6 1.4 326.9 2.6 81.3 2.1 135.2 3.8 * Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales. Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona PA GE S IX A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y A New Certificate Program College of Business and Public Administration The University of Arizona A two-week concentrated program for employees who hold a degree in an area other than business. The curriculum includes short courses in fundamental business topics that will be integrated through the use of team projects and business simulations. Topics to be addressed include: ■ money and finance ■ accounting ■ marketing ■ economics ■ management information systems ■ oral and written communication ■ time management ■ organizational structure ■ principles of teamwork ■ business process design BusinessBasics provides employees who lack a business background with the tools necessary to succeed in a business environment. The intent is to build upon a non-business education by means of intensive business training. The experience, understanding, and vocabulary gained as a result of the program will enhance the participants’ value to their employers and increase their long-term potential. For more information: College of Business and Public Administration The University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721-0108 AR IZ ON A' S E CO N OMY Contact: Phone: Fax: E-mail: Jennifer West 520/626-3313 520/621-8105 jwest@bpa.arizona.edu P AG E SE VE N A R I Z O N A YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 71,725 47,725 24,000 33.5 68,000 50,175 17,825 26.2 67,900 51,525 16,375 24.1 63,625 51,300 12,325 19.4 58,775 48,575 10,200 17.4 -7.3 -2.7 -24.4 -18.5 -3.2 2.9 -16.5 -13.6 37,400 0 2,000 1,600 1,900 10,800 1,100 9,300 9,600 37,800 0 2,200 1,700 2,100 11,200 1,200 9,700 9,700 38,900 0 2,300 1,700 2,100 11,800 1,200 9,900 9,900 39,400 0 2,300 1,700 2,200 12,300 1,200 10,000 9,700 39,100 0 2,600 1,800 1,700 12,300 1,200 9,100 10,400 4.0 ... 23.8 12.5 -10.5 2.5 9.1 1.1 5.1 4.4 ... 9.4 3.1 5.0 1.0 -4.2 9.9 2.7 64,026 50,787 6,475 6,764 5,089 16,875 71,791 58,001 6,285 7,505 5,698 15,191 84,097 67,776 8,559 7,762 5,975 16,542 99,088 81,929 8,508 8,651 6,853 17,225 ... ... ... ... ... ... 6.8 5.5 11.0 16.5 7.1 57.0 10.3 11.5 8.7 3.6 2.0 20.0 24,231 6,929 5,446 11,856 11,340 6,865 2,303 2,172 7,543 5,972 1,571 0 6,381 5,122 958 301 15,401 3,950 10,289 1,162 150.9 -17.2 787.0 450.7 48.7 -9.0 201.0 9.7 83 80 93 93 68 68 64 64 49 49 -18.3 -18.3 -13.8 1.6 71,225 67,575 3,650 5.1 70,975 67,525 3,450 4.9 70,825 67,525 3,300 4.7 70,325 67,050 3,275 4.7 68,850 65,500 3,350 4.9 -4.4 -1.0 -42.7 -40.1 1.1 3.8 -31.8 -32.5 41,300 200 3,400 3,200 1,900 11,600 1,900 10,800 8,300 41,400 200 3,400 3,200 1,900 11,500 1,800 10,900 8,500 41,400 200 3,100 3,200 2,000 11,700 1,900 10,900 8,400 41,600 200 3,100 3,200 2,000 11,900 1,900 10,900 8,400 41,300 200 2,600 3,300 2,100 13,000 1,300 10,500 8,300 5.9 0.0 -10.3 10.0 5.0 17.1 -31.6 2.9 7.8 4.8 0.0 8.1 0.0 3.5 2.5 -2.7 9.1 5.6 75,523 55,303 9,252 10,968 8,252 15,711 76,672 57,143 9,412 10,117 7,681 15,668 87,638 64,555 11,722 11,361 8,745 18,764 106,165 75,444 10,389 20,332 16,106 15,765 ... ... ... ... ... ... 19.0 10.1 9.2 82.3 67.5 -7.4 2.4 4.0 0.9 -3.6 -3.6 10.2 13,642 11,334 1,720 588 18,929 13,915 4,859 155 16,423 8,459 3,462 4,502 11,751 10,021 1,632 98 27,308 10,720 2,506 14,082 53.1 1.6 -46.2 435.8 16.6 9.4 20.3 32.6 125 117 149 147 98 96 112 104 115 113 -2.5 -0.9 3.6 6.3 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. PAGE EIGHT A RI ZO NA'S EC O NO M Y A R I Z O N A COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 56,800 49,150 7,650 13.5 55,875 49,250 6,625 11.9 54,775 49,275 5,500 10.0 53,975 48,900 5,075 9.4 53,525 48,900 4,625 8.6 -4.0 0.3 -33.9 -31.2 -4.2 -0.9 -24.1 -20.8 40,500 100 1,900 2,400 2,300 11,200 1,100 8,500 13,000 40,700 100 1,900 2,500 2,400 11,200 1,100 8,500 13,000 40,900 100 1,900 2,400 2,400 11,300 1,100 8,600 13,100 41,000 100 1,900 2,400 2,400 11,600 1,100 8,600 12,900 42,300 0 1,900 2,200 2,400 12,100 800 9,400 13,500 7.1 -100.0 18.7 -4.3 4.3 9.0 -33.3 14.6 6.3 1.4 -8.3 4.0 0.7 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.0 1.1 64,915 50,495 7,467 6,953 5,231 13,820 70,012 53,911 7,775 8,326 6,321 12,537 70,656 53,094 10,233 7,329 5,641 10,562 86,923 71,852 8,317 6,754 5,350 11,155 ... ... ... ... ... ... 11.3 12.4 3.2 10.3 1.3 -11.1 8.7 9.9 5.1 4.2 3.3 3.4 9,230 7,918 1,156 156 12,639 10,562 1,631 446 5,125 4,070 1,055 0 12,657 8,162 637 3,858 5,790 5,173 617 0 -14.8 -13.7 0.3 -100.0 -39.5 -26.5 -60.2 -54.9 99 86 152 89 50 45 81 77 57 57 -21.9 -21.9 -16.9 -0.7 34,500 31,775 2,725 7.9 34,925 32,300 2,625 7.5 34,425 31,875 2,550 7.4 34,250 31,700 2,550 7.4 33,675 31,300 2,375 7.1 -3.8 -0.7 -31.7 -29.0 -1.7 -0.4 -14.9 -13.4 25,200 3,000 1,900 1,900 800 5,900 400 4,100 7,200 25,600 3,000 1,900 1,900 800 6,000 500 4,100 7,400 25,200 3,000 1,800 1,900 800 6,000 400 4,000 7,300 25,400 3,000 1,800 1,900 800 6,000 500 4,100 7,300 25,700 3,100 1,700 1,900 800 5,700 400 4,300 7,800 4.0 3.3 -15.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 -20.0 10.3 9.9 1.7 0.3 -3.0 1.3 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.1 4.2 40,231 31,141 4,778 4,312 3,245 10,233 41,695 32,333 4,745 4,617 3,506 8,936 39,762 31,193 4,727 3,842 2,957 10,590 48,943 39,977 4,747 4,219 3,342 10,289 ... ... ... ... ... ... 11.4 10.5 13.3 17.4 7.8 -17.3 5.0 6.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 -3.9 8,255 6,552 1,603 100 6,576 5,376 0 1,200 13,281 3,912 7,990 1,379 6,661 4,466 2,111 84 6,924 6,622 0 302 122.3 306.0 -100.0 117.3 6.2 34.1 -17.6 -26.1 60 60 53 53 38 38 42 42 83 34 361.1 88.9 40.6 16.5 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. AR IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY PAGE NINE A R I Z O N A APACHE-NAVAJO REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 49,925 42,900 7,025 14.1 49,800 42,975 6,825 13.7 49,175 42,750 6,425 13.1 49,100 42,375 6,725 13.7 48,750 41,550 7,200 14.8 -7.4 -2.2 -29.2 -23.6 -3.6 -1.7 -12.9 -9.8 40,600 900 2,200 1,900 2,500 7,400 1,200 8,000 16,500 40,700 900 2,200 1,800 2,600 7,400 1,200 8,000 16,600 41,100 900 2,200 1,900 2,600 7,500 1,200 7,900 16,900 41,100 900 2,300 1,800 2,600 7,500 1,200 7,900 16,900 40,800 900 1,800 1,700 2,400 7,200 1,100 8,200 17,500 2.0 0.0 -10.0 0.0 -7.7 1.4 -8.3 1.2 6.7 0.5 -2.7 10.8 0.9 1.0 0.2 -2.1 1.8 -0.9 58,471 45,832 5,453 7,186 5,407 10,324 57,452 45,449 4,782 7,221 5,482 7,012 55,768 45,161 4,265 6,342 4,882 4,230 65,902 52,106 4,759 9,037 7,158 9,612 ... ... ... ... ... ... 15.6 14.7 8.2 25.2 15.0 -1.2 -3.4 -1.2 1.3 -16.5 -16.4 -16.9 17,541 7,497 4,325 5,719 13,772 5,286 6,394 2,092 7,022 5,826 1,099 97 5,721 3,432 284 2,005 4,763 2,893 1,870 0 -61.7 15.8 207.6 -100.0 -7.3 -16.9 11.7 -5.8 69 69 50 48 107 37 37 35 28 28 21.7 21.7 -6.7 -17.0 125,175 118,575 6,600 5.3 126,050 119,625 6,425 5.1 126,025 119,125 6,900 5.5 124,400 117,550 6,850 5.5 117,300 110,225 7,075 6.0 -4.6 -3.0 -24.3 -20.7 0.6 1.5 -11.7 -12.1 95,400 900 6,600 6,500 2,900 26,300 2,800 27,100 22,300 97,000 800 6,700 6,600 3,000 26,300 2,800 26,800 24,000 97,700 800 6,500 6,500 2,900 26,700 2,900 26,900 24,500 97,100 800 6,400 6,600 2,800 26,600 2,900 26,900 24,100 94,100 900 6,200 6,600 3,100 23,000 2,800 26,000 25,500 4.3 0.0 3.3 0.0 10.7 -4.6 3.7 7.0 11.8 4.2 -6.5 2.0 2.7 -2.5 2.8 5.7 7.4 3.4 179,513 125,561 35,673 18,279 13,753 48,099 168,985 122,382 29,484 17,119 12,998 43,708 159,072 119,954 24,000 15,118 11,637 42,451 182,223 143,222 24,616 14,385 11,395 40,955 ... ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 5.5 5.5 1.1 -7.1 4.5 4.7 6.0 3.8 -2.7 -2.2 -10.6 39,268 26,416 7,939 4,913 54,220 32,013 15,831 6,376 26,038 16,715 5,070 4,253 31,177 23,503 4,938 2,736 32,233 20,817 9,135 2,281 17.8 31.0 224.2 -73.6 -10.8 -4.6 -6.5 -28.3 253 242 310 245 169 163 217 207 226 195 42.1 66.7 -4.5 13.4 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. PAGE TEN ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 1,514.4 1,467.0 47.4 2.9 1,524.6 1,481.6 43.0 2.5 1,526.8 1,486.4 40.4 2.7 1,527.1 1,488.6 38.5 2.6 1,472.7 1,436.1 36.6 2.4 -0.7 0.3 -28.8 -27.3 2.7 3.6 -21.0 -22.5 1,395.9 6.7 95.1 163.3 124.0 39.3 71.3 336.3 85.8 250.5 107.9 438.8 176.5 1,412.0 6.6 96.2 163.8 124.6 39.2 71.9 340.8 86.2 254.6 109.0 442.5 181.2 1,432.3 6.7 95.9 165.2 125.6 39.6 72.3 351.3 87.0 264.3 109.7 448.2 183.0 1,445.6 6.8 95.2 166.4 126.9 39.5 73.4 358.6 87.8 270.8 111.1 451.7 182.4 1,423.2 6.8 94.2 167.0 127.4 39.6 99.5 352.5 86.5 266.0 111.4 446.8 169.6 6.4 4.6 4.8 6.6 8.0 2.3 47.0 5.5 6.4 5.3 9.3 7.9 1.4 5.6 1.0 4.1 4.5 5.0 2.9 9.2 4.2 4.7 4.0 10.5 7.8 1.7 2,366,019 1,665,866 314,397 256,167 129,590 547,545 2,375,950 1,641,640 327,309 265,906 141,095 511,746 2,525,931 1,761,251 333,065 300,207 131,409 508,707 3,040,320 2,276,786 335,400 298,467 129,666 589,327 ... ... ... ... ... ... 10.2 11.3 7.2 7.0 6.0 13.2 7.2 8.1 7.1 5.5 0.5 9.4 629,891 396,417 193,458 40,016 590,131 350,817 195,187 44,127 347,976 222,096 108,237 17,643 564,092 384,471 163,510 16,111 744,909 327,093 280,414 137,402 35.9 -11.1 149.7 102.2 -4.0 -5.5 -1.2 -2.4 4,112 3,137 12 963 4,047 2,620 56 1,371 2,850 2,093 16 741 4,314 2,411 19 1,884 2,907 2,194 13 700 -30.2 -10.8 -89.1 -55.9 1.9 4.7 -38.2 -11.7 452,201 3,332 135,715 549,878 3,932 139,847 444,588 3,189 139,413 527,968 3,629 145,486 487,636 3,209 151,959 29.1 20.4 7.2 15.2 5.3 9.0 2,198,082 40,519 2,520,296 43,892 2,493,491 42,415 2,621,960 43,403 ... ... -4.3 -1.0 0.6 -1.1 PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 2,784.1 6.6 12.0 5.4 17.1 2,807.6 6.6 12.0 5.4 16.9 2,830.9 6.7 12.1 5.5 16.6 2,853.8 6.7 12.2 5.5 16.2 2,876.6 6.8 12.3 5.5 16.0 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 -6.7 3.4 2.3 2.6 3.1 -1.2 67,388 49,074 3,346 -93 11,719 10,033 24,204 69,149 50,367 3,420 -92 12,068 10,227 24,629 70,709 51,594 3,490 -92 12,312 10,385 24,978 72,257 52,805 3,558 -92 12,555 10,547 25,319 73,802 53,996 3,624 -92 12,803 10,719 25,656 9.5 10.0 8.3 1.4 9.3 6.8 6.0 10.1 10.6 8.8 1.7 10.2 7.1 6.5 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table AR IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY PAGE ELEVEN A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 379.6 366.4 13.2 3.1 381.9 369.7 12.2 2.9 382.0 371.0 11.0 3.0 379.3 368.5 10.8 3.0 364.7 354.4 10.3 2.8 -4.0 -3.2 -24.3 -22.2 -1.1 -0.4 -17.1 -16.1 312.6 2.4 19.7 28.4 22.4 6.0 13.2 67.5 10.7 56.8 12.0 99.0 70.4 315.8 2.4 19.8 28.4 22.4 6.0 13.2 68.3 10.9 57.4 12.1 98.8 72.8 320.6 2.4 19.8 28.5 22.5 6.0 13.2 70.0 10.9 59.1 12.1 100.2 74.4 321.5 2.4 19.9 28.4 22.4 6.0 13.2 70.9 11.0 59.9 12.1 101.0 73.6 316.9 2.4 20.2 28.4 22.4 6.0 13.1 69.6 10.9 58.7 11.9 100.3 71.0 3.2 4.3 8.6 1.4 0.9 3.4 0.8 3.0 6.9 2.3 3.5 3.8 2.0 1.9 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.4 2.3 -1.9 2.1 4.5 1.7 -1.0 3.1 1.9 544,778 365,502 80,187 63,907 35,182 89,618 566,916 378,339 83,481 68,108 36,989 87,541 579,833 389,939 84,949 69,810 35,135 81,988 716,564 522,086 85,544 72,295 36,639 95,492 ... ... ... ... ... ... 6.5 6.8 4.8 8.0 3.2 4.5 5.3 5.8 4.7 6.8 -0.5 -4.6 93,028 53,728 32,195 7,105 86,191 52,817 23,884 9,490 83,824 48,021 26,275 9,528 75,384 52,195 19,368 3,821 96,590 44,697 43,561 8,332 11.8 3.8 43.7 -35.9 -12.8 -20.3 -1.0 -2.2 739 481 18 240 403 403 0 0 408 388 8 12 602 345 4 253 250 236 14 0 -28.4 -30.0 16.7 ... 5.1 -1.6 25.8 89.3 97,392 705 138,145 97,577 719 135,712 73,982 551 134,268 90,244 675 133,695 78,589 585 134,339 14.3 14.5 -0.1 3.6 1.0 2.5 246,049 17,383 289,765 20,946 291,461 21,527 302,968 18,225 279,396 22,178 -3.4 10.3 0.3 1.7 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 784.3 1.1 2.8 1.7 3.7 789.2 1.1 2.8 1.7 3.8 794.2 1.1 2.8 1.7 3.8 799.2 1.1 2.9 1.7 3.8 804.2 1.1 2.9 1.7 3.8 2.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.8 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.9 16,346 10,076 697 166 3,544 3,258 20,841 16,673 10,265 710 169 3,634 3,315 21,125 16,969 10,479 724 174 3,678 3,361 21,366 17,255 10,690 737 179 3,716 3,407 21,590 17,527 10,891 750 183 3,750 3,453 21,796 7.2 8.1 7.5 9.9 5.8 6.0 4.6 7.7 8.3 7.7 10.0 7.0 6.4 5.0 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table PAGE TWELVE ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Transportation Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Federal State & Local Schools Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES Copper Mining Construction Manufacturing Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Utilities Communications Amusements Rentals - Real Property Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 Chapter 13 E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 2,303.5 2,191.1 112.4 4.2 2,312.2 2,213.1 99.1 3.9 2,311.4 2,219.5 91.9 4.3 2,302.1 2,216.0 86.1 4.2 2,218.2 2,136.5 81.7 3.7 -2.0 -0.6 -28.6 -28.8 1.3 2.5 -19.1 -20.4 1,986.8 14.2 132.9 209.8 158.2 51.6 96.4 61.8 475.6 105.9 369.7 128.0 603.5 326.4 43.3 283.9 163.9 41.2 2,010.5 14.2 134.0 210.3 158.8 51.5 96.9 62.2 481.8 107.1 374.7 129.4 607.5 336.4 43.0 294.5 175.4 41.4 2,037.6 14.2 133.1 211.8 160.0 51.8 97.0 62.2 497.0 108.2 388.8 130.1 614.1 340.3 43.0 298.3 177.5 41.7 2,053.5 14.2 132.3 213.0 161.3 51.7 98.7 63.9 505.5 109.2 396.3 130.9 620.4 338.5 43.8 295.1 175.5 42.1 2,021.4 14.1 131.1 213.5 161.8 51.7 100.3 61.6 495.7 108.7 387.0 130.7 614.3 321.7 42.7 279.0 153.5 41.7 5.3 1.4 5.3 5.7 6.4 3.6 8.0 4.1 4.2 5.1 4.0 8.0 7.0 2.1 -1.2 1.9 -2.4 1.5 4.6 0.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.3 4.4 4.3 3.7 4.9 3.3 8.2 6.6 1.9 -0.8 2.7 3.8 -3.0 16.09 13.95 11.67 17.95 11.86 13.55 16.23 13.72 11.66 17.68 11.75 13.20 16.27 13.71 11.80 17.88 11.74 13.20 16.58 13.84 11.74 17.84 11.57 13.11 16.63 14.13 11.73 17.72 11.83 13.11 -2.7 4.0 1.2 -3.2 7.0 -2.8 -2.9 10.9 1.4 -0.1 8.3 0.6 3,475,969 2,390,487 477,076 389,172 219,234 164,949 510,214 177,792 41,443 9,020 227,938 752,225 115,549 112,427 3,515,353 2,389,198 496,670 396,497 232,989 176,895 451,345 63,659 47,220 -7,879 208,799 702,339 115,806 133,940 3,690,146 2,532,923 505,403 433,523 218,297 168,037 335,105 248,890 55,143 9,398 191,867 693,834 104,951 131,804 4,434,130 3,263,402 508,948 432,098 229,682 181,941 369,609 154,277 51,319 9,393 248,976 789,820 92,587 108,336 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9.4 10.2 5.7 7.2 10.6 1.6 7.9 8.9 11.6 -98.6 13.1 10.7 -10.9 8.3 6.3 7.3 5.6 5.4 -0.6 -1.1 3.3 13.9 14.9 -53.6 8.1 6.4 2.0 7.1 835,086 516,791 247,842 70,453 793,798 477,651 250,089 66,058 507,232 315,071 154,759 37,402 713,824 491,372 193,438 29,014 933,918 421,965 348,392 163,561 31.9 -6.7 126.5 60.2 -4.9 -7.2 0.8 -5.8 5,507 4,155 54 1,298 5,113 3,563 81 1,469 3,753 2,875 34 844 5,478 3,184 64 2,230 3,622 2,817 47 758 -27.5 -11.7 -13.0 483.1 1.7 2.6 -3.0 6.6 2,157 1,725 32 399 2,248 1,782 22 444 1,796 1,435 23 337 1,822 1,442 24 356 ... ... ... ... 7.7 13.0 4.3 -9.2 23.5 27.5 1.3 11.7 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. ARIZONA'S ECONOMY P AG E T HI RT EEN A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA Wages and Salaries Other Labor Income Proprietor's Income Farm Nonfarm Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR I N D I C A T O R S % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 4,480.5 10.0 19.0 9.0 24.0 4,513.8 9.1 18.7 9.6 23.6 4,546.7 10.2 18.9 8.7 22.8 4,579.3 10.3 19.2 8.9 21.9 4,611.3 10.2 19.3 9.1 21.6 2.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 -10.1 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.6 -5.7 96,709 66,599 4,606 256 17,868 16,592 99,123 68,290 4,732 253 18,215 17,097 101,937 70,461 4,856 250 18,734 17,347 104,013 72,006 4,943 247 19,052 17,651 106,307 73,926 5,052 244 19,444 17,745 9.9 11.0 9.7 -4.7 8.8 6.9 8.7 9.3 8.2 0.5 8.4 6.8 54,223 5,625 6,752 464 6,288 21,584 27,621 55,663 5,709 6,866 480 6,387 21,960 28,083 56,719 5,790 7,077 582 6,495 22,420 28,281 57,768 5,858 7,182 572 6,610 22,714 28,560 ... ... ... ... ... 23,054 ... 8.0 4.0 6.7 11.7 6.2 6.8 3.7 8.3 2.9 5.4 9.6 5.1 5.6 3.5 TRAVEL AND TOURISM SEP 97 Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS U.S. Citizens Aliens OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 1,978,945 185,993 768,384 1,024,568 143,751 31,980 84,045 27,726 1,573,232 176,414 601,797 795,021 209,941 36,374 143,722 29,845 1,119,177 106,911 344,232 668,034 203,380 44,582 139,146 19,652 739,255 75,533 259,052 404,670 189,843 42,768 135,320 11,755 859,714 88,359 253,429 517,926 261,844 58,794 182,511 20,539 -10.8 1.0 27.1 -23.4 -6.1 -0.9 -8.2 -0.2 -4.7 -4.9 4.8 -9.5 -9.2 -9.5 -11.1 1.2 628,858 1,922,374 692,435 2,171,566 609,169 1,911,920 679,558 2,209,459 ... ... -7.2 17.9 -1.7 6.4 MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS U.S. - All Urban U.S. - Wage Earners Sources and abbreviations: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business, Research Centers PA GE F OU R TEE N SEP 97 OCT 97 NOV 97 DEC 97 JAN 98 161.2 158.3 161.6 158.5 161.5 158.5 161.3 158.2 161.6 158.4 BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Program, The University of Arizona F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission) NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior % change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 1.6 1.3 2.2 2.1 NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department of the Treasury ARIZONA'S ECONOMY A R I Z O N A E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS Metropolitan Phoenix Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers U.S. - Urban Wage Earners Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures % change versus year ago for: most recent most recent quarter 4-quarters IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 168.6 158.7 158.5 155.8 171.3 160.8 159.6 156.7 173.9 161.0 160.2 157.3 174.4 162.1 160.8 157.9 177.4 162.8 161.5 158.4 5.2 2.6 1.9 1.7 4.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 111.1 111.6 111.8 112.2 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.2 113.3 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. 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Arizona’s Economy ❑ free of charge in the United States ❑ $12.00 (U.S.) international subscription Arizona Economic Indicators ❑ $17.00 in the U.S., Spring 1998 and Fall 1998 ❑ $23.00 (U.S.) international subscription, Spring 1998 and Fall 1998 1990 Arizona Statistical Abstract, includes 1980 Census data. ❑ Quantity ordered:_______ $26.50 (includes $3 shipping and handling) ❑ Quantity ordered:_______ $30.00 (U.S.) international order 1993 Arizona Statistical Abstract, includes 1990 Census data. ❑ Quantity ordered:_______ $27.95 (includes $3 shipping and handling) ❑ Quantity ordered:_______ $36.00 (U.S.) international order ARIZONA'S ECONOMY IS PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE KARL ELLER GRADUATE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721. 520-621-2155. COPYRIGHT 1998 BY THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA. 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Please make check or money order payable to: Economic and Business Research Program Mail to: Publications Office College of Business and Public Administration McClelland Hall 204 PO Box 210108 The University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108 4/98 Name: ______________________________________________ Organization: ________________________________________ Title: ______________________________________________ Address: ____________________________________________ City: ______________________________________________ State: ________________________ Zip: ________________ Telephone: __________________________________________ NOTE: Because we changed the publishing schedule for Arizona’s Economy, we did not print a summer issue in August 1997. During 1997, Arizona’s Economy was published February (Winter), May (Spring) and September (Fall). From 1998 on, the printing schedule is set for January, April, July and October – the first month of each quarter. AR IZ ON A 'S E CO N OMY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH PROGRAMS 520-621-2155 ECONOMIC IMPACT & FISCAL ANALYSIS....................ALBERTA CHARNEY 621-2291 FORECASTING PROJECT .................MARSHALL J. VEST 621-4075 FREE TRADE STUDIES ......................ARTHUR L. SILVERS 621-4822 STATE DATA CENTER...........................PIA MONTOYA 621-2523 DATA REFERENCE..................................VALORIE RICE 621-2109 PAGE FIFTEEN