S E P T E M B E R

1 9 9 7

F A L L

ARIZONA TO REMAIN “A LAND OF POSSIBILITIES”
Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director
August 1, 1997

EXHIBIT 1
AZ is consistently One of
the Fastest-Growing States
PERIOD
1900 - 95

This quarter’s forecast pushes the horizon out to the year 2020. Our annual
visit of the long-term shows slightly more growth and higher numbers than
what we published one year ago. This reflects recent boosts to current
estimates for employment and population (so we’re jumping off from a
higher starting point) as well as the economy’s amazing strength witnessed
in the past four years, which prompts us to raise the rate of growth in the
near term. These projections show that Arizona will continue to be a “land
of possibilities” for many new residents.

T

he recent Ken Burns’ PBS miniseries,
The West, described the early western
United States as “a land of possibilities
– a place where a man could bring his family
in hopes of making a better life.” Since the
early 1800’s, when the first trappers headed
west from St. Louis to make their fortunes in
the fur trade, people have been moving west.
The discovery of gold in California started
a rush of migrants to its farthest reaches.
Hordes came to harvest the bounty of a
land rich in timber and buffalo and prairies
covered with waist-high grasses. The prairies
filled with cattle and the cowboys who tended
them. More came to build the railroads,
which opened the western United States to
homesteaders and settlements. Mormons
fled religious persecution to settle the Great
Basin region. Perhaps one of the most vivid
pictures of the westward movement was the
Oklahoma land rush, with wagons pulled by
teams of horses at break-neck speed leaving
the starting line.
Today, Arizona and other mountain and
pacific states continue to be “a land of
possibilities,” as large numbers of people
continue to in-migrate. During the first half
of this decade, the top five states for population growth were Nevada, Idaho, Arizona,
Colorado and Utah, in that order. Arizona is
the largest of these five states, with a mid-year
1997 population in excess of 4.5 million.

During this century, four of the fastestgrowing states are in the west, with Florida as
the only exception. Arizona ranks second only
to Nevada, followed by Florida, California
and Washington (Exhibit 1). During this
century’s first 95 years, the top five in each
decade have included such widely-dispersed
states as Alaska, Washington DC, New
Mexico, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming. Most
have brief visits to the winner’s circle. In this
horse race, the top states have consistently
been there almost every decade, with the
exception of Washington, which was never
far out of the money.
At the beginning of the 20th century, only
124,000 people called Arizona home. Since
then Arizona has consistently ranked among
the fastest-growing states, failing to make
the top five in only two decades: the aughts
(1900-10) and the 30’s. It ranked seventh

I S S U E

RANK

TOP 5 STATES

2

NV, AZ, FL, CA,WA

7

WA, OK, ID, NV, ND

BY DECADE
1900 - 10
1910 - 20

1

AZ, CA, MT, WY, DC

1920 - 30

4

CA, FL, MI, AZ, NJ
DC, FL, NM, NV, CA

1930 - 40

7

1940 - 50

2

CA, AZ, FL, NV, OR

1950 - 60

4

FL, NV, AK, AZ, CA

1960 - 70

3

NV, FL, AZ, AK, CA

1970 - 80

2

NV, AZ, FL, WY, UT

1980 - 90

3

NV, AK, AZ, FL, CA

1990 - 95

3

NV, ID, AZ, CO, UT

in both decades. Over the first 95 years,
Arizona’s population growth has averaged
3.8% per year. The fastest growth recorded,
5.7% per year, came during the 1950’s.

THE OUTLOOK
There is plenty of additional growth on
the horizon. During the next five years
(1997-2001):
■

Arizona’s population will increase by
587,300, or 117,500 per year. For the
entire decade of the 1990’s some 1.177
million new residents will be added. That’s
a larger gain than in the 1980s (989,000)
or during the 1970s (943,000). By the
year 2000, some 4.9 million persons
will reside in Arizona. Arizona will gain at

I N S I D E
DATA SHORTCOMINGS...........5
FORECAST TABLES ................6
OUTLOOK LUNCHEON ...........7
ARIZONA ECONOMIC
INDICATORS........................8

ELLER GRADUAT E SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
T H E U N I V E R S I T Y OF A R I Z O N A

TUCSON, ARIZONA

EXHIBIT 3
Projections to the year 2020
ARIZONA
W&S Employment (000s)
Population (000s)

1990

1995

2000

1,483

1,795

2,139

2005
2,479

2010
2,893

2015
3,340

2020
3,800

3,728

4,297

4,905

5,491

6,125

6,785

7,450

Personal Income ($ millions)

60,852

86,420

122,261

169,658

236,117

328,141

452,541

Retail Sales ($ millions)

26,722

37,789

49,317

64,399

85,133

112,912

149,710

2,564

PHOENIX-MESA MA
W&S Employment (000s)

1,013

1,225

1,468

1,674

1,967

2,277

Population (000s)

2,293

2,658

3,067

3,463

3,936

4,450

4,963

Personal Income ($ millions)

40,237

57,539

82,181

109,101

151,426

214,767

295,683

Retail Sales ($ millions)

17,333

24,946

33,001

41,795

55,284

74,697

98,888

TUCSON METRO AREA
W&S Employment (000s)

252

303

346

399

466

535

594

Population (000s)

670

758

846

943

1,057

1,177

1,284

10,213

14,652

19,713

25,950

35,297

48,875

65,815

4,668

6,288

8,056

10,262

13,487

18,288

24,314

Personal Income ($ millions)
Retail Sales ($ millions)

EXHIBIT 2
Annual Changes
in Population, AZ

least two and most likely three additional
seats in Congress.
■ Some 298,000 new jobs will be created.
Job growth will average 3.0% per year
(compared to 3.9% during the 1980s).
■

Personal income will grow by an average
6.8% annually, and will exceed $122
billion in the year 2000.

■

Average annual wages will rise at a 4.0%
annual rate and top $32,300 by 2000.

Inflation in Metro Phoenix will average
3.3% per year.
■ Per capita income will rise to nearly
$25,000, an annual increase of 4.2%.

■

PAGE TWO

By the year 2020, Arizona is expected to
add another three million residents, and
population will approach 7.5 million. That’s
about as large as North Carolina and Georgia
(the nation’s 10th and 11th largest states)
are today. As of 1995, Arizona’s population
ranked 24th, and with the magnitude of
change predicted, Arizona will move up
quickly in the rankings.
Population growth varies significantly over
the business cycle as shown in Exhibit 2.
During the recession in the early 90’s,
Arizona’s population increased by less than
90,000 per year. From 1994-96, those
numbers rose into the 130-135,000 range,
as the economy soared. The forecast calls
for a slowing through the rest of this decade
to roughly 110,000 in the year 2000. Thereafter, population gains return to “trend line”
with increases approaching 140,000 in the
year 2020. Arizona’s resident population
should break the five million mark in 2001,
six million in 2009, and seven million in
2017 (Exhibit 3).
Employment also varies greatly over the
business cycle. From an average of nearly
105,000 net new jobs created in each of
the past three years, job growth should cool
to 50,000 or so by the end of this decade.
Thereafter, job growth is forecast to return to
“trend” of 80-85,000 net new jobs per year.
Per capita income (PCI) in 2020 will
exceed $60,000. Arizona PCI as a percentage

of national PCI is expected to be at 92%
25- years-hence, about five points higher than
where it is today. In real terms, per capita
income is expected to grow by 1.6% per year
during the projection period. Earlier this
year, total personal income surpassed a
major milestone: $100 billion. In the year
2020, it will exceed $450 billion.
With population growing by 2.2% per year
and employment increasing at a 2.9% annual
rate, the state’s employment to population
ratio will continue to increase. While less
than one-fourth of the population in 1960
was employed, by 1996 that ratio reached
43%. By the year 2020, over one-half of the
population will be working.
To house Arizona’s new residents, approximately 45,000 new housing units each year
(on average) will need to be constructed.
Roughly 30,000 will be single family units.

METRO AREA OUTLOOK
The Phoenix-Mesa metro area is undergoing a transformation and is quickly becoming a really large and diversified economy,
serving a region that transcends Arizona’s
borders. With a mid-year 1997 population
of 2.84 million, it is the “mega-city” of the
southwest. During the next five years, some
390,000 additional people will be added.
That’s about 78,000 per year. A year 2000
population of 3.07 million is projected.
Roughly 29,000 new housing units each year
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 4
Personal Income and
Individual Income Tax
Receipts, AZ

EXHIBIT 5
Wage & Salary
Disbursements and
Individual Withholding, AZ

EXHIBIT 6
Corporate Income Tax
Collections, AZ

AR IZ ON A 'S E CON O MY

will be needed to house the new residents.
By the year 2020, almost five million persons
will live in Metro Phoenix. That’s about as
large as today’s Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint and
Dallas-Ft. Worth metro areas, the nation’s
7th and 8th largest. Today, the Phoenix-Mesa
metro area ranks 17th.
As the nation’s 57th largest metro area,
Tucson will continue to grow about half as
fast as Metro Phoenix. Its population count
rises from 794,000 today to 846,000 by
the turn of the century. That is an average
increase of 17,000 per year. Nearly 7,000
new housing units per year will be needed.
By the year 2020, Tucson’s population is
projected to exceed 1.25 million.
Metro Phoenix will account for 73% of
Arizona’s new residents and 72% of the new
jobs created through 2020. The Phoenix area
will represent two-thirds of Arizona’s population 25 years from now, up from 62% today.

RECENT EVIDENCE
Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Alan
Greenspan, said it all in testimony to Congress
in late July when he described the economy
as “exceptional.” After more than six years
of expansion, the nation’s economy will
likely grow by nearly 3.5% this year. At midyear, unemployment stands at a 24-year low,
consumer confidence is the highest level ever
recorded, and financial markets continue
to amaze, establishing new records almost
daily. Remarkably, inflation shows no signs of
accelerating, and is expected to register only
2.5% or less this year at the consumer level.
And remember, the consumer price index is
a measure that the Boskin Committee recently
found to be overstating actual inflation by
1.1%. So, inflation may be lower than we
think, and real growth even stronger. Data
covering the past two years for gross domestic
product (GDP) will soon be revised significantly higher. That may help explain why
income tax revenues are growing well beyond
expectations, which may drive the federal
deficit below $50 billion this year.
An old proverb states that “when things
are too good to last, they eventually come to
an end,” but so far, there is nothing visible
to suggest a reversal of the best business
climate since the 1960’s. The forecast
assumes that policy-makers at the Fed will
be able to slow growth in real GDP next year
to 2.2%, a pace equal to the economy’s longterm growth potential. This, in turn, is expected to keep inflation from re-accelerating.

Arizona’s economy could hardly be better.
After three consecutive years of very strong
growth, the state’s economy is still surging.
Jobs continue to grow at a five percent annual
rate, unemployment is at a 13-year low of
4.3%, consumer confidence stands at an
all-time record high, housing markets are
surprisingly strong, and tax dollars continue
to pour into state coffers. Highlights of the
too-good-to-be-true economy follow.
Nonag jobs increased 5.3% during the 12month period ending in May. That’s slower
than the 7.5% rate of mid-1994, but still
surprisingly strong given that this is the
seventh year of this business expansion. In a
ranking using data through April1, Arizona’s
job growth was second only to Nevada. The
Phoenix-Mesa metro area was the fastestgrowing large metro market (over 750,000
workers), and the third-fastest when compared to all (some 291) metro areas.
The fastest-growing sectors during the past
year are found in services, schools, transportation and mining, all registering job growth
greater than 7.0% (comparing 12 months
versus 12 months). Wholesale trade is up
a strong 6.4%. Significantly, since both are
notorious for wide swings, both the manufacturing and construction industries continue
to add to payrolls. Construction jobs stand
at an all-time record high 130,000. Likewise
for manufacturing, with nearly 205,000.
Arizona’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3%
in June, well below the 5.0% rate recorded
nationwide. Less than 110,000 were unemployed, down more than 30,000 during
the past year. As Arizona’s experiment with
moving welfare recipients into jobs gets
rolling during the next year, unemployment
should fall further.
Tight labor markets are pushing up wages
at the fastest pace in recent years in nearly
every sector. Construction wages in May were
up 15.2% from May of 1996, while copper
mining wages rose 10.0%, and retail trade
rose 8.8%. After falling during the summer
of 1996, help wanted advertising in Metro
Phoenix has moved back up to readings
near the high point for this business cycle.
The Conference Board compiles the help
wanted index.
Arizona’s home building industry remains
remarkably strong. Building permits, after
peaking in early 1996, have stabilized at a
48,000 unit annual rate. Single family permits
peaked in early 1994, but after falling for
better than a year shot up to establish a new
peak in early 1996. So far this year, single
PA GE TH RE E

family permits have been moving upward
again to a 41,000 annual rate.
Both retail sales and restaurant and bar
(R&B) sales are showing growth in the
neighborhood of five to six percent. Growth
rates for both peaked in 1994 and have been
slowing as consumers satisfy their pent-up
demand and as they use up available sources
of credit. Special events including the Super
Bowl affected last year’s R&B numbers. The
12-month versus 12-month comparisons
jumped by two percent as a result. At five
to six percent growth, dollar sales are still
healthy, growing at twice the rate of inflation.
The sales slowdown is spread pretty evenly
across the various categories, according to

SO FAR, THERE IS
NOTHING VISIBLE
TO SUGGEST A REVERSAL
OF THE
BEST BUSINESS CLIMATE
SINCE THE 1960’S.

breakouts provided by the Arizona Department of Revenue (DOR). During the twelve
months that ended in April, sales at motor
vehicle dealers rose only 3.9%. Apparel and
furniture stores increased by like amounts.
Miscellaneous stores and building materials
registered the largest gains, posting 8.4%
and 7.5%, respectively. General merchandise stores saw sales increase by less than
one percent.

WHY ARE TAX
RECEIPTS SURGING?
Tax revenues are pouring into Uncle Sam’s
coffers, and there is a good chance that the
federal budget deficit may fall below $50
billion this year. Surging income taxes are
the reason. But economists are hard pressed
to explain why. Income taxes are coming in
faster than wages would suggest. A soaring
stock market may be the answer. Over the
past three years, market averages have posted
total returns approaching 30% annually.
Mutual funds must pay income to investors,
PA GE F OU R

who in turn must pay taxes on the proceeds,
whether reinvested or received in cash. Taxes
from last year’s dividends and capital gains
would be reflected on this year’s tax returns.
Surging income tax receipts also are evident in Arizona. In May, individual income
tax collections increased 31.9% from one
year earlier. Comparing 12 months to 12
months, collections jumped by nearly 12%
(Exhibit 4). Since this year’s collections
reflect liability for 1996, the strong flows
suggest that official statistics for personal
income are grossly understated. We expect
these estimates to be revised upward, when
BEA revises its estimates in September. Current personal income estimates show growth
of only seven percent during the second half
of last year. The dividends, interest and rents
component (which contains the effects of
movements in financial markets) currently
shows a gain of only 4.7% for all of 1996.
These numbers hardly reflect a booming
stock market.
But, that’s not the whole the story. Wage
& salary disbursements and individual withholding also have diverged – but in the
opposite direction! As shown in Exhibit 5,
wage & salary disbursements have been
increasing at a strong 9-10% annual rate
during the past four quarters. In early 1996,
withholding jumped well into double-digit
territory. But early this year, gains fell into
the 3-4% range. This reflects huge bonuses
(averaging $5,000 per worker) paid during
the first quarter of 1996 to workers in the
copper mining industry. Those bonuses were
not repeated in 1997, which accounts for the
large fall. So, in addition to a strong stock
market, one-time bonuses in 1996 also help
explain the jump in this year’s income tax
collections.
So far this year, surging income taxes have
kept state government tax collections growing
at a high rate, even as collections from sales
taxes have moderated. Will the income tax
continue to carry the day as we go forward?
The falloff in withholding portends disappointing individual collections next spring.
Meanwhile, corporate income taxes have
increased nearly 35% during the past year
(Exhibit 6). That may have as much to do
with weakness during early 1996 as with
strong corporate profits today. Most likely,
corporate tax gains will settle in the neighborhood of 10% next year. $
1 Blue Chip Job Growth Update: Ranking the States & MSA,
ASU College of Business, June 1997.

A CORRECTION
REGARDING
POPULATION
n last quarter’s report, we compared

I

population estimates from three
different sources: the US Census

Bureau, the Arizona Department of
Economic Security and Arizona State
University. We stated in reference to
the 1995 Special Census that “DES
doesn’t show this number because it
does not revise previously published
estimates.” In fact, DES has revised
its 1995 number to reflect the Special

Census results. Moreover, they do
revise estimates when they have data
from a decennial or special census.
Later this summer they will revise
estimates for the 1991-94 period.
This does not change our conclusion, however: that the ASU estimates
are the most realistic time series for
the 1990-96 time period. Therefore,
we continue to use the ASU estimates
in our models. $

S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
City of Tucson
Estes Homebuilding Company
Pima County
Salt River Project
Territorial Newspapers
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S West Communications
U S West Dex

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

DATA SHORTCOMINGS CONFOUND
COUNTY ANALYSIS
Marshall J. Vest, Forecasting Project Director
August 1, 1997

Analysts continue to be challenged to measure and understand what’s
happening in a rapidly transforming economy, while faced with inadequate
budgets for statistical gathering and an increased unwillingness of business
firms to provide important information.
IN SHORT... A growing number of companies with multiple locations are no longer providing
the state with employee counts by county. As a result, their employee counts for the entire state
are being reported in Maricopa County. This inflates growth in the Phoenix area, while seriously
understating job creation in the remainder of the state. These companies are behaving rationally
in the short term by minimizing compliance costs, since the state does not require this information (reporting is voluntary). However, in the long term, the quality of investment decisions will
suffer as the data deteriorates, leading to a misallocation of resources. Isn't this a compelling
reason for all companies to report individual county totals?

ucson’s economy slowed to a crawl in
1995, prompting many analysts to ask
the question, “What is wrong with
Tucson?” After all, Tucson’s economy was
on a roll in 1994 with job growth at a robust
6.3% (17,300 new jobs). But by mid-year
1995, job growth had receded to less than
two percent. Meanwhile, statewide gains
were running nearly three times that amount!
It was as if Tucson’s economy had run
into a wall. One possible explanation was
the devaluation of the Mexican peso at the
end of 1994, which negatively affected retail
sales. The construction industry also was
downsizing following modest overbuilding,
particularly in the luxury apartment market.
Thirdly, the large gains in manufacturing
employment during 1994 turned into small
losses. These explanations were the best that
analysts had at the time, but Tucson’s rapid
change in fortune was still incomprehensible. Never before had the economy lost
momentum so rapidly.
The mystery is now solved: there were
major problems with the data. Revisions
to the job numbers now show that Tucson’s
job base grew by 3.8% during 1995, not
2.4%. That is 11,200 new jobs rather than
only 7,000 as reported. Although the new
numbers still represent a slow down from
the prior year, the economy’s perceived
health is not so grave.
There were a number of problems with
the data (and some problems still remain).
But first, a review of the revision process is

T

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

helpful. In January of 1996, when the figures
were in for all of 1995, the numbers showed
Tucson’s job base growing by 2.6% (7,500
jobs). A couple of months later, the preliminary numbers were revised as part of an
annual “rebenchmarking.” We expected a
significant upward revision into the 4-5%
range. But, estimates were revised downward
instead, to show a 2.4% gain, or 7,000 jobs.
Finally, in March of 1997 a second revision
was released that boosts job growth to 3.8%,
an 11,200 increase. These numbers could
receive another boost next year.
Could the understatement of jobs be
happening again, this time to the estimates
for 1996? In January of this year, preliminary
estimates for the entire year showed an
increase of 2.3% or 7,000 jobs. A couple
of months later, the estimates were revised
downward to show a weak 1.8% gain, or
5,400 jobs. We won’t know until the end of
the first quarter of next year, when the annual
revisions are again released, whether current
estimates will hold or be revised significantly
upward once again.
In addition to driving forecasters crazy,
misstatements of this magnitude can have
deleterious effects on investment decisions.
Tucson currently has a serious shortage of
available industrial properties, particularly
in excess of 100,000 square feet. Yet speculative building remains nonexistent, because
of lack of financing. Economic developers
report losing a number of prospective new
businesses during the past year because of

the lack of available properties. Lenders rely
heavily on job growth to judge the vitality
of a community and whether to finance new
projects. Understated job figures are no
doubt partially responsible for giving lenders
the impression that there is “something
wrong with Tucson.” This lack of building
is, in turn, holding back the economy and
depressing job growth.
A number of steps are being taken to improve the accuracy of employment data and
lessen the size of future revisions. Adoption
of probabilistic sampling techniques, a new
touch-tone data entry system for employers,
a new industry classification system that
standardizes codes for the US, Canada and
Mexico, and improved techniques to estimate
new businesses are being implemented.
One major problem that will be hard to
fix involves large retailers’ unwillingness to
report the number of employees by county.
These are large department stores or other
national or regional firms that have multiple
outlets spread across the state. Firms are
required by state unemployment insurance
laws to report total wages paid in each calendar quarter when unemployment insurance
premiums are remitted to the State. On the
back of this form is an area that asks companies to voluntarily provide employment
counts for each month of the quarter. For
employers with multiple work sites, there is
a second form that requests job counts by
county. This also is voluntary. During the
past year or so, several large department
stores have stopped providing this information. For these firms, total state-wide employee
counts have been “rolled up” into and reported in Maricopa County. The effect on Pima
County data is that the general merchandise
& apparel category sheds over 1,000 jobs
during 1996, and “other retail trade” shows
a cumulative decline of 1,100 over the past
two years. As a result, Tucson’s retail trade
employment is reported to have dropped
by 1.8% in 1996 while total dollar sales
increased by 3.5%. In the Phoenix area, employment grew 4.6% while sales increased
8.3%. In short, job counts for Phoenix are
overstated (slightly – the base is huge) while
figures for other counties are seriously
understated.
Business firms have legitimate concerns
about the cost involved in reporting figures
to the government, but it is important for
businesses to provide this information. The
payback for doing so is much more accurate
data on which to base investment decisions.$
PAGE FIVE

F O R E C A S T

T A B L E S
Compound Annual
Growth Rates

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1991
63,767.8
4.8
16,710.6
2.4
27,490.9
2.9
3,816.0
2.4
56.7
1,491.4
0.6
266.6
-4.9
77.2
-6.5
176.1
-4.9
1,224.8
1.9
370.3
0.8
409.9
2.4

1996
93,454.2
8.1
21,095.8
4.9
40,369.0
6.8
4,430.0
3.1
94.2
1,898.3
5.7
344.3
5.5
127.0
6.1
202.9
4.8
1,553.9
5.8
465.4
4.7
559.0
7.7

1997
100,792.7
7.9
22,101.8
4.8
42,410.8
5.1
4,560.4
2.9
86.1
1,972.2
3.9
353.6
2.7
126.7
-0.3
212.2
4.6
1,618.7
4.2
478.6
2.8
593.5
6.2

1998
107,852.2
7.0
23,048.4
4.3
44,539.5
5.0
4,679.4
2.6
76.3
2,032.4
3.1
357.7
1.2
125.7
-0.8
216.8
2.2
1,674.8
3.5
491.5
2.7
624.5
5.2

1999
114,903.6
6.5
23,974.4
4.0
46,829.8
5.1
4,792.8
2.4
72.3
2,084.9
2.6
356.6
-0.3
124.2
-1.2
217.0
0.1
1,728.3
3.2
505.4
2.8
652.5
4.5

2000
122,316.5
6.5
24,941.3
4.0
49,312.2
5.3
4,904.2
2.3
72.7
2,141.6
2.7
359.2
0.7
124.7
0.4
219.0
0.9
1,782.4
3.1
519.7
2.8
681.7
4.5

2001
130,051.3
6.3
25,920.3
3.9
52,053.8
5.6
5,017.3
2.3
74.4
2,202.4
2.8
363.8
1.3
127.1
2.0
221.2
1.0
1,838.6
3.2
533.8
2.7
712.5
4.5

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
41,844.3
percent change
4.0
Per Capita Personal Income
17,827.8
percent change
1.6
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
17,580.6
percent change
1.4
Population (000s, mid-year)
2,347.1
percent change
2.3
Net Migration (000s)
28.4
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
1,009.0
percent change
-0.4
Goods-Producing
191.5
percent change
-5.7
Construction
51.3
percent change
-8.6
Manufacturing
134.7
percent change
-5.2
Service-Providing
817.5
percent change
0.9
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
251.2
percent change
-0.6
Services
283.2
percent change
2.0

63,646.2
10.6
23,157.7
7.0
27,282.8
9.4
2,748.4
3.4
63.9
1,310.5
7.0
254.9
6.7
90.6
6.8
157.4
6.1
1,055.6
7.0
322.2
5.5
399.7
9.5

69,306.8
8.9
24,412.7
5.4
29,069.0
6.5
2,839.0
3.3
63.0
1,372.1
4.7
267.5
5.0
94.1
3.9
166.6
5.8
1,104.6
4.6
334.4
3.8
425.0
6.3

73,773.3
6.4
25,263.0
3.5
30,404.3
4.6
2,920.2
2.9
52.9
1,412.4
2.9
270.1
1.0
92.6
-1.6
170.7
2.5
1,142.3
3.4
342.3
2.4
446.8
5.1

78,145.4
5.9
26,093.0
3.3
31,740.2
4.4
2,994.9
2.6
45.6
1,441.0
2.0
267.6
-0.9
90.0
-2.8
170.8
0.1
1,173.4
2.7
348.1
1.7
465.2
4.1

82,180.7
5.2
26,795.3
2.7
33,000.9
4.0
3,067.0
2.4
42.6
1,467.6
1.8
265.6
-0.8
88.1
-2.1
170.6
-0.1
1,202.0
2.4
353.2
1.5
484.0
4.0

86,232.0
4.9
27,465.5
2.5
34,326.1
4.0
3,139.6
2.4
42.9
1,497.5
2.0
265.8
0.1
88.1
0.0
170.8
0.1
1,231.6
2.5
358.5
1.5
503.2
4.0

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

15,487.0
5.7
19,931.7
3.1
6,558.0
4.3
777.0
2.5
14.5
309.9
2.4
49.5
-0.1
19.7
2.1
27.4
-2.2
260.4
2.9
68.9
1.6
96.1
5.2

16,538.7
6.8
20,838.2
4.5
6,923.0
5.6
793.7
2.1
12.0
320.1
3.3
50.7
2.5
19.5
-1.3
28.6
4.7
269.4
3.5
70.0
1.7
101.0
5.1

17,526.5
6.0
21,605.0
3.7
7,264.9
4.9
811.2
2.2
12.7
328.8
2.7
51.8
2.2
19.5
-0.0
29.6
3.4
277.0
2.8
71.3
1.9
105.6
4.5

18,649.5
6.4
22,512.8
4.2
7,665.0
5.5
828.4
2.1
12.0
337.1
2.5
53.1
2.4
20.0
2.5
30.1
1.4
284.0
2.5
72.8
2.1
109.7
3.9

19,712.9
5.7
23,300.3
3.5
8,055.7
5.1
846.0
2.1
12.1
346.2
2.7
54.6
2.9
20.9
4.8
30.4
1.2
291.6
2.7
74.4
2.2
114.1
4.1

20,715.5
5.1
23,972.5
2.9
8,426.9
4.6
864.1
2.1
12.5
355.5
2.7
56.0
2.4
21.8
4.3
30.7
1.1
299.5
2.7
76.1
2.2
118.8
4.1

10,840.1
6.1
15,894.6
4.3
4,900.9
5.0
682.0
1.8
6.4
258.3
2.6
41.5
-3.1
14.1
-2.4
25.1
-4.2
216.8
3.8
61.0
3.5
75.6
3.3

91-96 96-01 91-01
7.9
6.8
7.4
4.8

4.2

4.5

8.0

5.2

6.6

3.0

2.5

2.8

10.7
4.9

-4.6
3.0

2.8
4.0

5.2

1.1

3.2

10.5

0.0

5.1

2.9

1.7

2.3

4.9

3.4

4.1

4.7

2.8

3.7

6.4

5.0

5.7

8.7

6.3

7.5

5.4

3.5

4.4

9.2

4.7

6.9

3.2

2.7

3.0

17.6
5.4

-7.6
2.7

4.2
4.0

5.9

0.8

3.3

12.0

-0.5

5.6

3.2

1.6

2.4

5.2

3.1

4.2

5.1

2.2

3.6

7.1

4.7

5.9

7.4

6.0

6.7

4.6

3.8

4.2

6.0

5.1

2.6

2.1

2.4

17.9
3.7

-2.9
2.8

7.0
3.2

3.6

2.5

3.0

6.9

2.0

4.4

1.8

2.4

2.1

3.7

2.8

3.3

2.4

2.0

2.2

4.9

4.3

4.6

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

PAGE SIX

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

The Local Economy:
A New Paradigm?
Find out at The University of Arizona College of Business and Public Administration’s:
1998/1999 ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK LUNCHEON

Presentations by
Marshall J. Vest
Economic and Business
Research Program
Gerald J. Swanson
Economics Department
Mark Zupan
Dean of the College of Business
and Public Administration

Friday, December 12, 1997
Noon-2:00 p.m.
Westin La Paloma
$35 per person; $325 per table of 10*
Reservations required.
Call 621-2930 for information
and reservations

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

P AG E S E VEN

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

60,775
48,900
11,875
19.5

65,675
47,650
18,025
27.4

68,000
48,700
19,300
28.4

69,675
47,975
21,700
31.1

70,350
46,725
23,625
33.6

-5.7
4.5
-21.1
-16.3

1.6
0.9
3.4
1.9

38,200
0
2,100
1,600
1,900
12,200
1,200
9,200
10,000

37,300
0
1,900
1,600
1,900
11,800
1,100
9,100
9,900

36,600
0
2,000
1,600
1,900
11,200
1,100
9,000
9,800

36,000
0
2,000
1,600
1,900
11,100
1,100
9,000
9,300

34,500
0
2,000
1,600
1,900
10,900
1,100
9,000
8,000

4.5
...
5.3
6.7
11.8
5.8
0.0
11.1
-4.8

3.8
...
9.0
0.5
0.4
1.4
-7.9
9.1
4.1

83,050
63,186
10,059
9,805
7,394
11,332

66,976
54,066
7,400
5,510
4,093
11,081

65,228
50,240
7,743
7,245
5,616
12,064

60,888
48,053
6,338
6,497
5,211
11,200

...
...
...
...
...
...

110.2
198.3
9.9
-8.3
4.9
17.4

8.7
9.5
7.0
4.7
-0.4
-0.1

11,088
6,609
3,222
1,257

24,803
7,230
16,583
990

32,302
6,822
23,317
2,163

12,636
5,664
5,132
1,840

14,705
5,410
4,468
4,827

33.9
26.6
30.3
47.4

32.4
17.6
107.2
-36.4

86
86

92
92

87
87

72
72

58
58

9.4
9.4

23.9
10.3

69,575
65,725
3,850
5.5

69,475
66,175
3,300
4.7

70,475
66,925
3,550
5.0

71,675
68,025
3,650
5.1

72,100
68,525
3,575
5.0

3.2
6.0
-31.3
-33.4

2.8
3.5
-5.5
-8.2

40,100
200
3,100
3,000
2,000
11,500
1,900
10,600
7,800

40,500
200
3,400
3,000
1,900
11,500
1,900
10,700
7,900

40,500
200
3,400
3,100
1,900
11,500
1,900
10,700
7,800

40,600
200
3,500
3,100
1,900
11,700
1,900
10,800
7,500

40,300
200
3,300
3,100
1,800
11,600
1,800
10,700
7,800

5.5
0.0
10.0
3.3
-5.3
1.8
0.0
10.3
8.3

4.1
0.0
3.9
-0.8
5.0
-0.4
4.7
11.2
4.0

93,256
67,248
12,527
13,481
10,167
17,754

85,200
61,561
11,441
12,198
9,063
17,760

93,593
69,398
12,188
12,007
9,308
16,471

85,272
63,380
10,323
11,569
9,280
17,108

...
...
...
...
...
...

3.9
12.1
-7.8
-19.3
-7.6
16.9

4.6
6.2
0.2
0.6
-3.5
10.6

35,848
12,305
4,250
19,293

20,407
12,112
6,773
1,522

20,580
14,545
5,029
1,006

16,744
11,972
940
3,832

29,248
10,719
1,686
16,843

40.3
-22.2
493.7
148.5

16.9
14.4
79.7
-9.0

138
138

152
150

167
163

124
120

116
116

-32.9
-4.1

6.3
10.8

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

54,650
48,850
5,800
10.6

54,175
48,725
5,450
10.1

55,150
49,400
5,750
10.4

55,125
48,675
6,450
11.7

55,450
48,925
6,525
11.8

-3.5
0.9
-27.3
-24.6

-3.5
-3.5
-3.2
-0.1

40,400
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,700
1,200
8,200
13,000

40,400
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,900
1,100
8,200
12,900

40,400
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,900
1,200
8,200
12,800

39,500
100
1,700
2,300
2,300
11,200
1,200
8,500
12,200

39,100
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,200
1,200
8,500
11,900

2.6
0.0
-5.9
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
8.2

-0.3
0.0
-6.2
3.7
3.0
1.3
14.6
-3.7
-1.1

71,128
54,796
8,507
7,825
5,901
11,686

64,050
48,270
8,083
7,697
5,718
12,702

70,506
54,426
8,407
7,673
5,948
9,264

67,973
53,872
7,419
6,682
5,360
10,870

...
...
...
...
...
...

9.9
16.6
-9.8
-10.1
2.9
-14.8

6.0
8.2
-0.3
-2.2
-6.7
-10.7

11,474
5,260
765
5,449

11,691
6,903
2,357
2,431

6,728
5,715
221
792

14,517
7,682
6,782
53

9,422
8,000
60
1,362

-26.9
39.5
-66.7
-80.5

10.4
-16.8
165.4
22.6

64
60

84
78

82
82

83
81

75
75

0.0
0.0

-0.9
-9.6

34,475
31,675
2,800
8.1

34,175
31,700
2,475
7.2

35,225
32,550
2,675
7.6

34,300
31,450
2,850
8.3

34,225
31,500
2,725
8.0

-2.8
-1.2
-18.0
-15.7

-1.1
-1.2
-0.1
0.9

25,200
3,000
2,000
1,900
900
5,700
400
4,000
7,300

25,600
3,000
2,000
1,900
900
5,800
500
4,000
7,500

25,500
3,000
2,100
1,900
800
5,600
500
4,000
7,600

24,700
3,000
2,000
1,900
800
5,900
500
4,000
6,600

24,300
3,000
1,900
1,900
800
5,900
500
4,000
6,400

-0.4
0.0
-5.0
-5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.4
3.2

3.4
3.7
12.8
3.2
7.7
0.6
14.0
4.8
1.6

30,951
21,468
4,992
4,491
3,387
12,557

38,355
28,631
5,427
4,297
3,192
12,252

44,481
34,069
5,823
4,589
3,557
11,057

42,496
33,090
5,350
4,056
3,253
14,514

...
...
...
...
...
...

1.9
4.8
-1.7
-13.8
-1.3
11.5

4.6
5.6
0.2
2.7
-1.9
31.1

11,758
10,881
308
569

11,785
8,013
3,772
0

4,907
4,397
210
300

7,310
3,102
972
3,236

16,033
5,650
1,882
8,501

115.7
36.2
349.2
196.7

-20.0
11.0
-29.1
-49.9

104
62

84
68

57
38

34
34

50
50

16.3
16.3

5.8
-3.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

51,550
42,975
8,575
16.6

50,975
43,275
7,700
15.1

52,325
43,900
8,425
16.1

53,075
42,575
10,500
19.8

52,350
42,200
10,150
19.4

-2.1
3.6
-20.2
-18.5

-2.2
-3.3
3.2
5.7

40,800
900
2,000
1,700
2,600
7,100
1,200
8,400
16,900

41,100
900
2,200
1,700
2,600
7,200
1,200
8,400
16,900

41,300
900
2,200
1,800
2,600
7,100
1,200
8,400
17,100

39,600
900
2,200
1,800
2,800
7,300
1,200
8,300
15,100

38,600
900
2,200
1,800
2,700
7,300
1,200
8,300
14,200

4.9
0.0
4.8
5.9
3.8
-3.9
-7.7
-1.2
16.4

0.5
-7.7
21.8
-10.0
2.3
2.1
-6.5
5.2
-2.7

48,423
36,359
4,573
7,491
5,649
5,948

45,923
33,535
4,682
7,706
5,725
5,839

57,740
44,111
5,800
7,829
6,069
8,418

61,183
48,173
6,656
6,354
5,097
8,817

...
...
...
...
...
...

-2.4
5.7
-0.1
-39.1
-30.3
-10.4

-7.6
-8.4
-0.5
-7.5
-11.6
5.6

4,996
2,774
791
1,431

17,205
11,978
597
4,630

19,671
4,042
9,003
6,626

19,251
4,409
3,423
11,419

11,305
4,953
2,380
3,972

-21.8
-49.0
95.1
12.6

4.0
8.8
6.0
-2.7

35
35

137
137

49
47

54
54

53
53

-36.1
-36.1

22.5
22.1

122,050
114,900
7,150
5.9

123,875
117,425
6,450
5.2

125,375
118,375
7,000
5.6

126,700
118,200
8,500
6.7

128,450
120,225
8,225
6.4

0.7
2.1
-15.9
-16.4

0.8
1.1
-3.2
-4.0

93,400
900
5,800
6,500
2,900
24,800
2,700
25,200
24,600

94,100
800
6,200
6,600
2,900
25,500
2,700
26,000
23,400

95,000
800
6,400
6,700
2,900
25,600
2,800
26,200
23,600

93,000
800
6,500
6,500
3,000
26,000
2,700
26,400
21,100

93,600
800
6,400
6,500
3,100
26,300
2,700
26,700
21,100

3.9
-11.1
-3.0
1.6
-3.1
2.7
0.0
5.5
9.3

5.0
-3.7
3.9
7.7
-3.0
3.5
6.6
7.9
3.4

164,281
115,206
31,494
17,581
13,259
34,746

163,261
114,797
31,091
17,373
12,907
35,429

181,664
132,331
31,262
18,071
14,009
39,198

183,257
134,532
33,135
15,590
12,505
40,868

...
...
...
...
...
...

4.6
9.5
2.6
-21.9
-10.6
-3.3

6.8
7.3
4.8
6.8
2.3
0.4

39,678
23,134
6,393
10,151

41,088
20,997
13,125
6,966

42,296
26,402
6,160
9,734

50,000
25,865
5,320
18,815

65,405
25,261
19,004
21,140

16.6
-20.0
13.6
172.4

-13.3
-9.0
-30.2
-4.8

212
187

190
188

319
226

249
245

240
220

-44.2
13.4

-8.4
7.3

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

1,479.9
1,436.3
43.6
3.1

1,477.8
1,437.8
40.0
3.0

1,495.8
1,452.4
43.4
3.2

1,505.0
1,459.5
45.5
2.9

1,515.7
1,470.7
45.0
2.8

3.0
4.2
-26.6
-28.2

2.3
2.5
-2.5
-4.9

1,375.3
7.3
92.0
155.0
117.6
37.4
71.7
340.0
85.7
254.3
101.1
427.9
180.3

1,377.3
7.5
93.2
155.6
118.1
37.5
72.1
340.5
85.7
254.8
101.4
427.5
179.5

1,381.6
7.6
95.2
156.5
119.0
37.5
72.2
341.3
86.7
254.6
101.9
427.9
179.0

1,369.2
7.8
96.4
158.5
121.0
37.5
72.6
340.4
87.4
253.0
102.9
429.8
160.8

1,362.3
8.4
97.3
159.8
122.4
37.4
73.0
339.9
86.5
253.4
103.5
427.1
153.3

6.0
25.4
7.3
3.9
5.3
-0.5
5.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
8.9
6.4
1.3

6.3
12.7
5.0
2.0
2.8
-0.2
6.6
5.4
8.2
4.4
9.1
9.0
4.6

2,564,332
1,775,709
321,657
318,427
148,538
462,973

2,448,433
1,683,687
327,530
295,584
141,632
486,513

2,422,577
1,688,584
322,456
275,892
135,645
476,385

2,474,779
1,776,011
315,825
260,148
122,796
545,691

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.8
10.7
6.8
1.5
-12.2
13.1

6.5
6.1
7.9
5.8
10.5
10.0

624,589
380,798
150,480
93,311

725,100
413,079
131,728
180,293

598,408
388,684
158,533
51,191

799,363
377,567
279,686
142,110

480,864
340,981
106,367
33,516

-13.7
-12.1
4.0
-50.0

5.4
-4.0
16.8
36.0

2,891
2,586
47
258

3,409
2,890
26
493

3,412
2,746
8
658

2,790
2,576
29
185

2,980
2,888
8
84

-11.0
6.4
-78.9
-85.9

-10.1
-6.7
-8.2
-21.5

524,503
3,928
133,529

510,735
3,665
139,355

610,086
4,485
136,028

536,833
3,756
142,927

625,098
4,405
141,906

28.0
15.2
11.1

9.0
0.0
8.7

3,059,241
38,448

2,713,900
35,228

2,538,311
36,232

2,536,618
42,118

...
...

1.9
25.8

5.7
9.0

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
96

III
96

IV
96

I
97

II
97

2,737.3
6.5
11.8
5.3
16.3

2,759.9
6.6
11.9
5.4
16.1

2,782.5
6.7
12.1
5.4
15.8

2,805.1
6.8
12.2
5.4
15.8

2,827.7
6.9
12.3
5.4
15.8

3.3
5.6
4.0
2.1
-3.5

3.3
5.7
4.8
3.7
-0.8

62,946
45,898
2,758
-32
10,340
9,498
22,996

64,397
47,002
2,819
-32
10,579
9,667
23,333

65,791
48,037
2,871
-32
10,820
9,836
23,645

67,184
49,068
2,921
-32
11,063
10,006
23,951

68,599
50,127
2,976
-32
11,304
10,176
24,260

9.0
9.2
7.9
0.4
9.3
7.1
5.5

9.7
10.0
8.7
0.3
9.8
7.5
6.1

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

379.3
367.7
11.6
3.2

378.3
367.5
10.8
3.2

382.3
370.6
11.7
3.3

381.0
368.2
12.8
3.2

372.8
360.4
12.4
3.1

-2.0
-1.2
-21.0
-18.4

-1.5
-1.5
-2.5
-1.2

317.6
2.4
18.0
29.1
23.3
5.8
13.2
69.3
10.4
58.9
12.7
99.8
73.1

317.5
2.4
18.1
29.2
23.4
5.8
13.4
68.7
10.4
58.3
12.6
100.1
73.0

318.3
2.4
18.2
29.4
23.5
5.9
13.5
68.4
10.4
58.0
12.6
100.5
73.3

311.6
2.3
18.8
29.6
23.7
5.9
13.6
67.9
10.4
57.5
12.5
99.7
67.2

301.2
2.5
19.2
29.5
23.6
5.9
13.4
67.3
10.4
56.9
12.6
99.0
57.7

0.9
4.2
-1.0
2.4
2.6
1.7
0.8
2.7
0.0
3.3
1.6
1.9
-3.0

2.3
2.5
-2.7
3.4
4.0
0.9
-1.4
0.3
1.9
0.0
0.6
6.4
0.5

582,020
387,220
81,805
75,131
37,865
82,905

605,402
407,153
83,298
74,406
40,545
87,738

585,693
392,788
82,008
70,741
40,156
92,425

580,529
404,483
80,321
61,856
33,869
92,050

...
...
...
...
...
...

7.4
11.6
4.7
-0.4
-13.8
-1.8

4.4
4.1
4.6
3.7
8.4
-2.0

102,301
48,897
23,436
29,968

81,522
51,638
21,953
7,931

76,679
50,076
20,396
6,207

134,579
54,185
75,755
4,639

78,168
46,941
21,096
10,131

-29.6
-18.3
-41.5
-42.0

-16.6
-29.8
26.2
-29.5

438
420
18
0

609
474
18
117

441
412
29
0

562
548
5
9

392
384
1
7

-38.6
-9.6
-87.5
-96.6

-24.6
-2.7
32.6
-90.6

93,406
720
129,730

95,412
762
125,212

98,407
760
129,483

106,778
805
132,643

...
...
...

-4.9
-2.8
-2.2

-3.9
-8.3
5.0

363,357
22,484

315,643
21,421

313,488
21,018

277,970
20,103

280,818
19,012

4.4
3.6

0.5
-4.1

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
96

III
96

IV
96

I
97

II
97

774.7
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.4

779.0
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.2

783.2
1.1
2.8
1.7
3.1

787.4
1.1
2.9
1.7
3.1

791.6
1.2
2.9
1.7
3.0

2.2
3.6
2.0
0.9
-9.9

2.3
1.1
1.6
2.0
-16.6

15,352
9,661
608
127
3,072
3,100
19,817

15,596
9,826
618
130
3,111
3,147
20,021

15,870
10,015
629
134
3,158
3,192
20,263

16,144
10,202
640
137
3,207
3,238
20,504

16,407
10,381
651
141
3,251
3,284
20,727

6.9
7.5
7.1
11.2
5.8
5.9
4.6

6.3
6.5
6.3
9.7
5.4
6.4
3.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Real Property
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

2,252.4
2,157.1
95.3
4.8

2,254.5
2,160.3
94.2
4.8

2,284.7
2,182.9
101.8
4.7

2,296.5
2,184.5
112.0
4.4

2,301.5
2,189.2
112.3
4.1

1.3
3.1
-23.6
-28.1

1.2
1.4
-1.3
-2.4

1,973.2
14.7
126.6
202.3
153.4
48.9
99.1
62.0
483.7
106.4
377.3
121.1
590.7
335.0
42.5
292.5
174.5
41.2

1,974.2
14.7
128.3
202.7
154.0
48.7
99.2
62.3
483.1
106.2
376.9
121.4
591.4
333.4
42.8
290.6
172.3
41.6

1,980.2
14.8
131.0
203.8
154.9
48.9
99.7
62.7
483.6
107.1
376.5
122.0
591.0
334.3
43.1
291.2
172.3
41.6

1,952.4
14.9
132.8
205.6
156.5
49.1
100.1
63.1
481.1
107.4
373.7
123.0
593.8
301.1
41.7
259.4
138.3
41.1

1,932.7
15.1
133.7
206.5
157.6
48.9
100.2
63.6
479.1
105.0
374.1
123.8
591.3
283.0
41.1
241.9
119.1
40.5

4.3
2.7
4.9
3.5
4.4
0.6
3.9
7.6
4.4
5.1
4.2
7.1
5.5
1.3
-1.4
1.8
2.3
-4.9

5.1
5.9
4.1
2.3
2.6
1.5
5.1
7.3
4.5
5.9
4.2
6.7
7.4
3.6
-2.6
4.7
7.4
-3.2

17.34
14.15
11.67
18.00
11.47
13.06

18.85
14.22
11.68
18.24
11.48
13.08

18.12
14.68
11.67
17.88
11.33
12.87

18.89
14.58
11.70
17.26
11.43
13.28

15.25
14.46
11.94
16.89
11.45
13.34

-8.0
14.6
2.7
-8.0
7.8
2.1

5.4
8.3
3.4
6.7
6.6
3.0

3,731,872
2,521,192
497,892
465,710
247,078
186,333
329,644
141,724
72,498
272,879
236,871
639,901
136,540
198,565

3,613,753
2,431,700
506,982
438,114
236,957
176,045
318,211
145,665
60,612
324,965
229,745
669,314
121,622
159,176

3,616,146
2,465,947
499,128
417,856
233,214
180,786
371,432
139,954
50,323
275,852
220,069
665,282
134,128
130,294

3,649,094
2,561,594
488,863
391,225
207,412
166,369
436,909
162,921
...
...
...
741,118
137,769
...

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

7.1
10.6
6.5
0.8
-14.7
-2.3
15.1
23.1
15.1
6.2
6.1
9.3
19.4
10.3

5.7
5.5
6.5
5.0
7.8
3.1
2.8
13.6
36.3
16.1
13.3
8.2
-16.4
9.7

841,732
490,658
189,645
161,429

933,601
531,950
196,888
204,763

801,571
500,683
222,869
78,019

1,054,400
490,446
378,010
185,944

705,150
447,915
156,943
100,292

-10.8
-12.9
-2.2
-13.3

1.8
-6.9
18.1
13.7

3,922
3,507
152
263

4,625
3,910
82
633

4,455
3,715
66
674

3,925
3,645
54
256

3,892
3,777
19
96

-15.9
3.1
-76.5
-89.1

-15.8
-6.8
-19.2
-46.8

2,166
1,660
24
482

2,240
1,770
33
436

2,234
1,766
19
448

2,154
1,699
18
436

...
...
...
...

30.9
34.9
-30.8
20.8

29.2
28.0
-2.4
35.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

P AG E T HI RT EEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) E
Measures of Financial Institutions
Banks and S&Ls Combined ($mil) ASBD
Assets
Loans
Liabilities
Deposits
Equity Capital
Capital:Asset Ratio (%)

I N D I C A T O R S

II
96

III
96

IV
96

I
97

II
97

4,413.4
9.7
18.4
8.8
23.6

4,446.6
9.7
18.6
8.8
23.5

4,479.6
9.6
18.5
8.9
23.2

4,512.3
9.7
18.7
9.0
22.9

4,544.5
9.8
18.8
9.0
22.1

3.0
1.4
2.1
2.7
-6.5

3.0
3.1
1.2
-0.8
-4.0

92,401
64,279
4,437
294
15,839
16,425

94,278
65,668
4,522
299
16,171
16,662

96,038
66,968
4,601
304
16,462
16,906

98,154
68,469
4,704
308
16,749
17,333

99,966
69,975
4,797
313
16,922
17,552

8.2
8.9
8.1
6.4
6.8
6.9

8.0
8.7
7.8
6.4
5.8
7.3

52,317
6,035
5,858
379
5,479
20,936
27,341

53,382
6,130
6,008
465
5,543
21,202
27,373

53,733
6,129
6,021
364
5,657
21,439
27,276

54,485
6,112
6,109
328
5,781
21,753
27,426

...
...
...
...
...
21,997
...

5.6
1.3
7.2
4.8
7.3
5.1
0.8

8.2
4.3
6.5
2.5
6.8
4.8
2.8

39,810
24,161
36,140
32,512
3,670
10.1

31,064
21,266
28,558
25,909
2,506
8.9

32,145
22,699
29,791
27,252
2,354
8.1

24,226
15,812
22,528
20,340
1,698
7.8

24,230
16,419
22,470
20,637
1,760
8.2

-39.1
-32.0
-37.8
-36.5
-52.0
NA

-27.6
-18.5
-27.1
-26.7
-33.3
NA

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PAGE FOURTEEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

II
96

III
96

IV
96

I
97

II
97

168.4
157.5
156.5
153.9

167.6
158.6
157.4
154.6

168.6
158.7
158.5
155.8

171.3
160.8
159.6
156.7

173.9
161.0
160.2
157.3

3.3
2.2
2.3
2.2

4.4
2.7
2.9
2.8

109.6
109.8

110.2
110.2

110.7
111.0

111.4
111.6

111.9
111.9

2.1
2.0

2.1
2.3

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

MAR
97

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

160.0
157.0

160.2
157.2

160.1
157.2

160.3
157.4

160.5
157.5

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.2
2.1

2.8
2.7

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

MAR
97

I N D I C A T O R S

APR
97

MAY
97

JUN
97

JUL
97

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation

1,561,051
208,133
512,435
840,483
468,240
96,671
312,311
59,258

1,800,648
193,193
480,997
1,126,458
297,306
56,709
197,805
42,792

2,131,384
201,673
687,273
1,242,438
254,428
44,183
157,589
52,656

2,221,820
203,491
790,583
1,227,746
178,922
28,426
106,141
44,355

2,677,087
211,370
998,558
1,467,159
167,243
26,978
93,969
46,296

-4.2
-0.0
3.0
-9.0
-5.7
-35.6
7.0
-2.8

-5.1
-1.1
-3.6
-6.5
0.3
-1.3
0.7
0.4

International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens

775,392
2,074,294

685,276
1,826,179

614,941
1,551,744

722,656
1,873,859

717,859
1,874,132

22.1
21.0

3.7
-5.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

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9/97

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NOTE: The publication date of Arizona’s Economy is in transition from the middle month
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AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY

ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
520-621-2155
ECONOMIC IMPACT
& FISCAL ANALYSIS....................ALBERTA CHARNEY
621-2291
FORECASTING PROJECT .................MARSHALL J. VEST
621-4075
FREE TRADE STUDIES ......................ARTHUR L. SILVERS
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STATE DATA CENTER ...........................PIA MONTOYA
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DATA REFERENCE..................................VALORIE RICE
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PAGE FIFTEEN