M A Y

1 9 9 7

REVISIONS SHOW
STRONGER ECONOMY
Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
March 25, 1997

N

EWS FLASH: Growth in Arizona
during the 1990’s has been
considerably faster than anyone
thought! In recent weeks, economists
have been revising upward their estimates for the numbers of jobs created
and the numbers of new residents. Middecade Special Census results found
more than 100,000 new residents,
prompting the need for annual revisions
back to at least 1990. Also, revisions to
employment estimates for 1993-96
contain much stronger job creation.
Not surprisingly, most of the newfound
people and jobs are in the Phoenix-Mesa
metro area. These revisions arrived too
late to be incorporated into this forecast
update. Therefore, our forecasts remain
practically unchanged from last quarter.
EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
REVISED UPWARD
In its annual revisiting of previously
published estimates, the Arizona Department
of Economic Security (DES) normally revises
its estimates for the prior two years. This
time, four years were revised: 1993-1996.
In the process, DES significantly boosted
estimates of job creation for 1995 and 1996.
These revisions show that Arizona remains
one of the fastest-growing states in the
nation. Some 36,600 additional jobs were
added statewide to the preliminary 1996
estimate. That boosts the number of jobs
created last year to an even 100,000. Instead
of the 4.3% increase originally reported,
the revised gain is now 5.6% (Exhibit 1).

S P R I N G

Prior to the revision, Arizona ranked
fourth among all states for job creation
during 1996 with its preliminary 4.3% gain.
Nevada led the nation at 7.3%. Utah was
second with 5.5% and Idaho was third with
a 4.5% gain. Once the revisions are incorporated into the rankings, Arizona should
move up a notch or two.
The size of the revisions for Arizona’s
total nonag jobs is nearly identical to those
released one year ago during the annual
rebenchmarking of the 1994-95 estimates.
We were anticipating a smaller upward
revision for 1996 – an increase of a few
tenths of a percent – or nearly 20,000 additional jobs. But our estimates were about
17,000 shy of the 36,600 added by DES.
These revisions arrived too late to be
included in this quarter’s forecasts, so
the tables in this report reflect our earlier
expectations.
The final estimate for 1995 now rests
nearly 35,000 higher than the preliminary
numbers, as another 12,500 jobs were
found. That puts the number of new jobs
created during 1995 at 103,500, a percentage gain over the prior year of 6.1%. That
is nearly as large as 1994, which saw the
largest number of jobs ever created in a
single year – 107,700. During this business
expansion, which began six years ago,
Arizona has created almost 413,000 jobs!
Three-quarters of that number, or 311,000,
have come in just the last three years!
Revisions to individual industries for 1996
brought some surprises. Not so surprising
were nearly 14,300 additional jobs in

I S S U E

services and 5,300 in trade. That’s where
most of the additional jobs are usually found.
Surprises came in finance, insurance and
real estate (FIRE) with 5,200 and in transportation, communications and public utilities
(TCPU) with 3,100. Preliminary reports had
EXHIBIT 1
Employment Growth, 1996
% Increase

Increase

5.6
4.3

100,000
75,900

Phoenix-Mesa MA
Revised
Original

6.9
5.2

84,500
62,600

Tucson Metro Area
Revised
Original

1.8
2.3

5,400
7,000

Balance of the State
Revised
Original

3.8
2.4

10,100
6,300

Arizona
Revised
Original

EXHIBIT 2
Employment Growth by
Industry, AZ (1996 vs 1995)

I N S I D E
FORECAST TABLES ................4
TUCSON TOURISM ................5
ARIZONA ECONOMIC
INDICATORS........................8

ELLE R GRADUAT E SCH OOL OF MANAGE MENT • COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND P UBLIC ADMINISTRATION
THE UNIV ERSITY OF ARIZONA

TUCSON, ARIZONA

shown little growth in these two industries.
Also surprising were the reductions in
manufacturing and government. Manufacturing jobs, instead of increasing by 5,900
as originally reported, are now estimated
to have increased by 5,400. Likewise for
government, where the annual gain is now
10,100 rather than the 14,900 originally
reported (Exhibit 2).
Two changes in methodology affect the
industry breakdowns. First, Native American
enterprises were moved from Services
(primarily Other Services) to Local Government in January 1995, causing a series break
in both industry groups. Native American
enterprises account for approximately
12,000 jobs, statewide. This will significantly
affect some of the outlying counties such as
Navajo and Apache where a large portion
of county employment is in Native American
enterprises. Second, treatment of Salt River
Project (SRP) employment changed once
again. In January 1993, SRP was moved from
TCPU to Government causing a series break
in both groups. The Salt River Valley Water
Users’ Association was returned to TCPU in
January 1996, causing a second break. SRP
employment is currently about 4,000 workers,
statewide, with only a few hundred in the
Water portion. We will continue to add SRP
back into TCPU where it belongs, thus avoiding any further series breaks.
Estimates for Arizona’s two largest metro
areas also were revised – Phoenix-Mesa
metro estimates were pushed higher, while
Tucson’s were lowered margi-nally. Job
growth in the Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area was
a robust 6.9% rather than 5.1%, while growth
in Tucson was a modest 1.8%, slightly less
than the originally-reported 2.3% gain.
EXHIBIT 5
Annual Changes in
Arizona Population

PAGE TWO

EXHIBIT 3
Population Estimates Compared, 1990-1996
Arizona
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Pima
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Maricopa
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Pinal
Census Bureau
DES
PHX-Mesa
Census Bureau
DES
ASU/DES

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

3,679,370
3,680,800
3,728,000

3,749,569
3,767,000
3,816,000

3,841,125
3,858,85
3,919,000

3,952,954
3,958,875
4,035,000

4,091,615
4,071,650
4,169,000

4,305,016
4,228,900
4,297,000

4,428,068
4,462,300
4,430,000

668,281
666,880
670,000

676,826
682,880
682,000

692,638
700,250
698,000

711,678
712,603
715,000

734,644
728,425
736,000

755,273
766,172
758,000

767,873
780,750
777,000

2,129,555
2,130,400
2,177,000

2,169,163
2,179,975
2,229,000

2,216,175
2,233,700
2,291,000

2,274,394
2,291,200
2,364,000

2,358,014
2,355,900
2,450,000

2,526,113
2,454,525
2,527,000

2,611,327
2,634,625
2,613,000

116,468
116,800

118,136
119,650

120,732
122,600

123,708
127,225

127,121
132,225

131,343
139,050

135,376
144,150

2,246,023
2,247,200
2,293,800

2,287,299
2,299,625
2,348,650

2,336,907
2,356,300
2,413,600

2,398,102
2,418,425
2,491,225

2,485,135
2,488,125
2,582,225

2,657,456
2,593,575
2,666,050

2,746,703
2,778,775
2,757,150

In the balance of the state, i.e., the areas
outside of the two large metro areas, some
10,100 jobs were created last year, a gain of
3.8%. That’s about normal for Arizona’s other
12 counties. (Of Arizona’s 15 counties, Pima
comprises the Metro Tucson area while
Maricopa and Pinal make up the PhoenixMesa metro area). Over the past two decades,
annual growth in the balance of the state
averaged 3.5% per year, with little variation
over the business cycle.

POPULATION ESTIMATES
RECEIVE LARGE BOOST
Just how fast is Arizona’s population
growing? 123,000 per year? 233,000? That’s
the range of estimates for 1996. For 1995,
depending on the source, the gain lies
between 128,000 and 213,000. So, what
is a person to believe?
In Arizona, there are three sources for
state and county population estimates: the
US Census Bureau, the Arizona Department
of Economic Security (DES) and Arizona
State University (ASU). The wide range results
primarily from contrasting efforts to incorporate the 1995 Special Census results into
current estimates.
During the Special Census, an additional
100,000 people were found, primarily in the
Phoenix area. That puts the mid-year 1995
estimate at roughly 4.3 million persons
(Exhibit 3). DES doesn’t show this number
because it does not revise previously
published estimates. Its new estimate for
1996 does however contain the Special
Census results, and that explains why they
show an annual increase from 1995 to 1996
of 233,400! (See Exhibit 4) That’s clearly
an overstatement of reality.

The other two sources revised their
estimates for earlier years, but the Census
Bureau numbers look suspect. The Bureau
boosted their previously published 1994
estimate by a measly 12,000 and as a result,
they show a gain of 213,400 in 1995!
Although 1994 and 1995 were boom years
for Arizona’s economy, the size of the implied
gain is unreasonable. By contrast, estimates
from ASU show population gains in the
128,000 to 134,000 range for the past three
years. In our opinion, that is much more
realistic. To incorporate the Special Census
results, ASU’s Tom Rex revised history all the
way back to 1981. Doing so allowed Tom
to incorporate known, but officially ignored,
undercounts during the 1990 Census,
when entire neighborhoods were missed.
Exhibit 5 compares annual changes over
the 1991-96 period from the three sources.
The relationship between historical job
growth and population growth provides some
insight into what’s reasonable. Exhibit 6
EXHIBIT 6
Annual changes in Population
and Nonag Employment, AZ

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

EXHIBIT 4
Changes in Population, 1991-1996
Arizona
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Pima
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Maricopa
Census Bureau
DES
ASU
Pinal
Census Bureau
DES
PHX-Mesa
Census Bureau
DES
ASU/DES

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

70,199
86,200
88,00

91,556
91,850
103,000

111,829
100,025
116,000

138,661
112,775
134,000

213,401
157,250
128,000

123,052
233,400
133,000

8,545
16,000
12,000

15,812
17,370
16,000

19,040
12,353
17,000

22,966
15,822
21,000

20,629
37,747
22,000

12,600
14,578
19,000

39,608
49,575
52,000

47,012
53,725
62,000

58,219
57,500
73,000

83,620
64,700
86,000

168,099
98,62
77,000

85,214
180,100
86,000

1,668
2,850

2,596
2,950

2,976
4,625

3,413
5,000

4,222
6,825

4,033
5,100

41,276
52,425
54,850

49,608
56,675
64,950

61,195
62,125
77,625

87,033
69,700
91,000

172,321
105,450
83,825

89,247
185,200
91,100

shows annual changes in jobs and population back to 1960. ASU’s estimates are used
for population, and the employment gains
reflect the recently revised numbers. Both
measures surge during expansions, and
during 1978 and again in 1984, new jobs
and population growth were nearly identical.
In each case, population growth tends to
move higher for an additional year or two,
even as employment slows. In this demographic version of the chicken versus egg
question, employment clearly leads population. That’s probably because in the early
stages of the business cycle as new jobs are
created, the resident population is put to
work and unemployment falls. Then, as the
rest of the country learns of growing labor
shortages and unfilled job opportunities,
people migrate to those jobs. As the business
cycle ages, population growth diminishes
as job growth slows (or declines during
recessions, such as occurred in 1974-75,
1981-82 and 1990-91).
During recessionary periods, population
growth can be an order of magnitude higher
than job growth. In 1991 for example, jobs
grew by only 10,000 but population growth

WHICH YEAR MARKED
THE PEAK GROWTH RATES?

EXHIBIT 7
Which Year Brought
Peak Growth Rates?
1993

1994

1995

1996

Nonag Jobs

4.4%

6.8%

6.1%

5.6%

Population

3.0%

3.3%

3.1%

3.1%

Retail Sales

9.0%

12.4%

9.1%

6.0%

R&B Sales

6.4%

10.4%

7.0%

8.2%

Personal Income

7.3%

8.4%

9.4%

8.8%

A R IZO N A' S E CO N OMY

remained near 90,000. It’s not likely, however, that recent population increases could
have been as high as 200,000-plus, given
strong job increases of 100,000-plus. That,
along with the retreat back to a 123,000
annual change for 1996 provides reason
for us to reject the Census Bureau estimates.
We believe that the ASU estimates make
the most sense and we will be incorporating
these numbers into our databases and models
in the coming weeks. We conclude, therefore,
that Arizona’s population as of mid-1996
stood at 4.43 million people and that population growth recently has been running at
roughly 130,000-135,000 persons per year.
Analysis of estimates for the two large
metro areas leads to a similar conclusion:
The ASU estimates make the most sense.
Since ASU estimates Maricopa County and
not Pinal, we add the DES numbers for
Pinal to get the Phoenix-Mesa metro area.
As of mid-1996, the Phoenix-Mesa metro
population slightly exceeded 2-3/4 million
people and is growing by roughly 90,000
persons per year. Comparable numbers for
Metro Tucson (Pima County) are 777,000
and 19,000 per year.

Although recent revisions significantly
boosted the numbers for 1995 and 1996,
the year for peak Growth rates remains 1994.
As shown in Exhibit 7, job growth peaked
at 6.8% in 1994. Likewise for population
(3.3%), retail sales (12.4%) and restaurant
& bar sales (10.4%). Personal income is the
only aggregate measure to rise at its fastest
rate, 9.4%, the following year.

Peak rates of growth are normally achieved
during the recovery stages of an economic
upturn, when the economy is regaining
lost ground given up in the prior recession.
Growth rates then diminish as the economy
transitions from recovery into the expansion
phase. Eventually, growth rates reach zero as
the cycle peak is reached and the expansion
gives way to recession.

METRO PHOENIX
CONTINUES TO PERK
As the numbers for population and
employment show, the Phoenix metro area
continues to be Arizona’s engine of growth.
Metro Phoenix continued to put up impressive numbers last year, even though it was
the sixth year of this business expansion.
Retail sales grew by 8.3%. Restaurant & bar
sales increased 9.7%. The number of single
family building permits reached almost
30,000, a gain of 3.5% over a very strong
1995. Commercial markets were strong with
additional construction of new offices, hotels,
industrial and retail space. As mentioned
above, employment grew by 6.9%, and
population increased by 3.4%. The unemployment rate at year-end was only 3.3%.
Will the Phoenix area ever slow down,
or will the economy continue to perk at a
high rate through 1997? The answer is both.
The Phoenix economy is slowing, but it’s a
statistician’s slowdown that’s not noticeable
to the average person. And although the pace
is slowing, growth remains at a high level.
We expect further cooling as 1997 unfolds,
as unsustainably high growth gives way to a
more average-paced advance. In the meantime, the Phoenix marketplace will continue
its stunning growth. $
S P O N S O R S

Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
City of Tucson
Estes Homes
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
U S West Communications
U S West Dex
Wells Fargo Bank

PAGE THREE

F O R E C A S T

T A B L E S

Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1995
86,419.5
9.4
20,111.6
6.1
37,787.5
7.8
4,297.0
3.1
93.7
1,793.4
6.0
326.2
5.0
119.7
10.4
193.9
2.0
1,467.2
6.2
447.0
7.4
526.0
8.5

1996
94,059.1
8.8
21,232.3
5.6
40,449.1
7.0
4,430.0
3.1
91.8
1,875.8
4.6
339.8
4.2
126.3
5.5
200.3
3.3
1,536.0
4.7
461.6
3.3
560.0
6.5

1997
100,453.5
6.8
22,062.4
3.9
42,701.8
5.6
4,553.2
2.8
77.8
1,933.8
3.1
343.5
1.1
124.4
-1.5
205.7
2.7
1,590.3
3.5
472.2
2.3
588.5
5.1

1998
106,915.6
6.4
22,917.9
3.9
44,594.5
4.4
4,665.2
2.5
71.9
1,986.4
2.7
344.3
0.2
121.9
-2.0
209.0
1.6
1,642.1
3.3
486.1
2.9
614.3
4.4

1999
113,351.3
6.0
23,736.1
3.6
46,899.5
5.2
4,775.5
2.4
71.5
2,039.3
2.7
345.3
0.3
121.0
-0.8
211.1
1.0
1,694.0
3.2
500.9
3.0
640.2
4.2

Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1995
57,630.6
11.0
22,480.5
7.1
24,961.2
9.0
2,563.6
3.6
64.1
1,219.6
6.7
237.7
5.1
81.3
8.9
151.4
3.2
981.9
7.2
297.9
6.2
362.3
7.8

1996
62,728.7
8.8
23,643.7
5.2
27,328.3
9.5
2,653.1
3.5
63.5
1,283.9
5.3
247.7
4.2
88.5
8.8
154.2
1.9
1,036.3
5.5
311.6
4.6
388.4
7.2

1997
67,532.3
7.7
24,683.4
4.4
28,976.0
6.0
2,735.9
3.1
56.1
1,332.8
3.8
256.4
3.5
91.0
2.9
160.3
4.0
1,076.4
3.9
320.5
2.8
409.7
5.5

1998
71,439.2
5.8
25,445.9
3.1
30,330.6
4.7
2,807.5
2.6
44.7
1,364.2
2.4
257.3
0.4
89.4
-1.8
162.9
1.6
1,106.9
2.8
326.1
1.8
427.7
4.4

1999
75,386.6
5.5
26,256.6
3.2
31,678.3
4.4
2,871.2
2.3
37.1
1,391.2
2.0
255.8
-0.6
86.6
-3.1
164.2
0.8
1,135.4
2.6
331.4
1.6
444.3
3.9

Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change

1995
14,480.3
6.6
19,053.0
3.6
6,300.6
3.8
760.0
2.9
16.8
302.4
2.7
50.0
5.5
19.9
4.9
27.9
5.7
252.4
2.1
68.5
1.1
93.0
5.2

1996
15,374.3
6.2
19,793.6
3.9
6,579.6
4.4
776.7
2.2
12.1
311.0
2.9
50.5
0.9
19.9
0.1
28.3
1.3
260.6
3.3
69.0
0.7
97.2
4.5

1997
16,227.4
5.5
20,475.1
3.4
6,908.5
5.0
792.5
2.0
11.2
317.6
2.1
49.4
-2.2
19.4
-2.2
27.6
-2.4
268.3
3.0
69.8
1.1
101.8
4.7

1998
17,139.7
5.6
21,209.9
3.6
7,252.8
5.0
808.1
2.0
10.9
325.4
2.4
50.3
2.0
19.3
-1.0
28.8
4.2
275.1
2.5
71.0
1.7
106.0
4.1

1999
18,102.4
5.6
21,970.2
3.6
7,641.1
5.4
824.0
2.0
11.1
332.5
2.2
50.3
-0.0
19.7
2.2
28.3
-1.5
282.2
2.6
72.6
2.3
110.0
3.8

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona

PAGE FOUR

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

TUCSON TOURISM, 1995-96
Alberta Charney, Ph.D.
Economic and Business Research,
College of Business and
Public Administration

Julie Leones, Ph.D.
Department of Resource
and Agricultural Economics,
College of Agriculture

TABLE 1
Economic Impacts
of Tourism, 1995-96

Direct

April 1997

Indirect and Induced

A

lthough tourism is known to be an important sector in the economy of
the Greater Tucson area, very few studies of it’s contribution to the Tucson
economy have been conducted. This article summarizes the results of
a recent study and provides estimates of total overnight visitors to the Tucson
Metropolitan area, overnight visitor expenditures, and the economic and revenue
impact associated with those expenditures. It also presents characteristics of
Tucson’s overnight visitors.1

Total

FIGURE 1
Expenditure Summary
for Tourism, 1995-96
(by categorya)

a Category breakdown for winter visitors who stayed in RVs or
trailers was based on a 1994 survey of Phoenix winter visitors,
conducted by the Center of Business Research, College of
Business, Arizona State University.

A R IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY

excludes travel and tourism expenditures
of local residents since we are interested
in measuring only the export-base tourism
activity, that is, the activity that brings outside
dollars into the community. For the same
reason, the study excludes travel and tourism
expenditures made by overnight visitors
prior to their arrival in Pima County (for
example, airfare).

TOTAL OVERNIGHT
VISITOR EXPENDITURES
AND ECONOMIC IMPACT
Estimates of overnight visitor numbers and
visitor expenditures were obtained by surveyFIGURE 2
Hotel Visitor Expenditures
by Origin of Visitor,
1995-96

Note, the following are definitions of the regions used in this table.
West: AZ, CA, AK, HI, WA, OR, NV, UT, NM, CO, WY, ID, MT
Central: OH, IN, IL, MI, WI, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NB, KS
South: DE, MD, DC, VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, KY, TN, AL, MS,
AR, LA, OK, TX
East: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA

Jobs

908.8

25,700

630.9

10,800

1,539.7

36,500

TABLE 2
Expenditures Summary
for Tourism, 1995-96,
by Accommodations
Expenditure

In this study, the word tourism includes
all visitors who spend the night in the Tucson
urbanized area, regardless of the purpose of
the trip. Thus, “tourists” include business
travelers as well as sight-seers and vacationers. Since tourists are identified and
surveyed where they stay, only those who
stay the night are measured in this study.
Thus the expenditures and activities of daytrippers from Mexico and other parts of
Arizona who come to Tucson for shopping,
sight-seeing or visiting friends and relatives
are excluded, as are the expenditures of
visitors who stop or spend part of a day as
they pass through on the interstate highway
system. In addition, the study purposefully

Sales
($ million)

$million

Percent

Non-resort hotels

409.8

45.0

Resort hotels

194.3

21.4

Private homes

187.3

20.6

Winter visitors non-RV

61.4

6.2

Winter visitors RV and trailera

56.0

6.8

908.8

100.0

Total

a Winter visitors RV and trailer data were obtained
from Arizona Business, Center for Business Research,
College of Business, Arizona State University, Volume
43, No. 8, August 1996, pp. 1-4.

ing Tucson guests over a one-year period,
from August 1995 through July 1996. Hotel
guests were surveyed through a random
sample of hotels and visitors to private homes
were surveyed via random telephone and
mail surveys. Winter visitors staying in
condominiums, townhomes, apartments
or single-family homes were also identified
through a telephone survey. Estimates for
winter visitors staying in RVs were obtained
from the Winter Visitor Survey, a study done
by the Center for Business Research, College
of Business, Arizona State University.
Estimated expenditures for visitors who
spend the night in Tucson are $909 million
in fiscal year 1995-96 (Table 1). Lodging
represents 26% of total expenditures and
another 21% is spent at eating and drinking
establishments (Figure 1). Two-thirds of
Tucson’s overnight visitor expenditures come
from people staying in resorts and hotels.
The rest is spent by visitors in private homes;
winter visitors staying in condominiums,
PAG E FIVE

apartments and houses; and winter visitors
staying in RVs and trailers (Table 2).
Overnight visitor expenditures generate a
total of 36,500 wage and salary jobs, either
directly or indirectly, in the Tucson economy.
This represents more than 12% of the wage
and salary jobs in Pima County. Wage and
salary job impacts are disaggregated into
nine major economic sectors in Table 3.
Other than small numbers of jobs in transportation, communications and utilities,
direct job impacts occur in the trade (wholesale and retail) sector and the service sector.
Most tourism purchases, such as souvenirs,
apparel, books, etc., as well as groceries
and restaurant purchases, are included in
the trade sector. Of the 18,200 direct trade
jobs, 6,200 are restaurant jobs. Hotel jobs
represent almost all (94%) of the direct job
impact on services. When multiplier effects
are added to the direct job impacts, additional jobs are added to both services and
trade. When total jobs are considered,
57% are in the trade sector and 33% are in
services. The multiplier creates wage and
salary jobs in other major economic sectors
as well, including construction; manufacturing; finance, insurance and real estate; and
transportation, communications and utilities.
When all multiplier effects are included,
overnight visitors generate a total of $1.5
billion in sales impacts in Pima County
(Table 1). Overnight visitor spending contributes approximately $63 million dollars
in tax revenues to the State of Arizona, $17
million to Pima County and $28 million to
the City of Tucson.

HOTEL VISITORS AND
THEIR CHARACTERISTICS
More than 1.1 million visitors spend the
night in Tucson hotels. Each one stays an
average of five nights and spends an average
of $547 in Tucson while on their trip
(Table 4). More than half travel as couples
and almost one-quarter are visitors traveling
alone. Only 15% are traveling with children
and even fewer are traveling with business
associates, friends or relatives. Tucson
visitors are extremely well educated, with
64% holding at least a bachelor’s degree,
and have high incomes, with 57% earning
more than $60,000 per year.
Forty-four percent of hotel visitors are
PAGE SIX

from Arizona or other western states
(Figure 2). Californians comprise a large
share of those visitors and represent 15.8%
of the total. The southern and central regions
of the country each contribute approximately 18% of our visitors. Ten percent

are from eastern states and 10% are from
foreign countries, including Mexico.
Business is cited as the primary reason
for coming to Tucson by 43% of hotel
visitors, although many are mixing business
and leisure (Figure 3). Leisure is the

TABLE 3
Employment Impact of Tourism, by Sector, 1995-96A
Direct
Job
Impact

Category

Induced
and Indirect
Impact

Percent

Total
Job
Impact

Percent

Agriculture

0

0

200

200

1

Mining

0

0

0

0

0

Construction

0

0

300

300

1

Manufacturing

0

0

1,000

1,000

3

Transport.,comm., and utilities
Trade

100

0

600

700

2

18,300

71

2,600

20,900

57

Finance, insurance and real estate
Services
Total
A

0

0

1,200

1,200

3

7,300

29

4,900

12,200

33

25,700

100

10,800

36,500

100

Figures may not add due to rounding.

FIGURE 3
Hotel Visitors’ Primary Reason
for Visiting Tucson, 1995-96

TABLE 4
Summary Statistics on
Hotel Visitors, 1995-96
People per party

2.07

Average nights in Tucson

4.84

Average nights on complete trip

12.48

Average room nights per party

5.19

Average local expenditures
per visitor

$

Average local expenditures
per party

$ 1,133.

Average local expenditures
per room night per party

$

%
50
40
30
20

547.

10
0

222.

43%
Business

30%
Leisure

14%
7%
Friends Passing
& Family Through

6%
Other

TABLE 5
Summary Statistics for Hotel Visitors,
by Major Market Segment, 1995-96
International

Resort

Golf

Over
60

Business

Leisure

Gem and
Mineral

Total

18.1

7.1

15.6

14.0

15.3

11.8

21.0

12.5

Room nights per party

5.5

4.6

10.2

6.0

6.5

5.5

8.3

5.2

Visitors per party

2.1

2.2

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.3

1.9

2.1

Expenditures per
room night

$215

$323

$299

$189

$226

$204

$177a

$222

Expenditures
per person

$553

$689

$1,587

$557

$825

$491

$773a

$547

$1,183

$1,491

$3,037

$1,143

$1,480

$1,131

$1,469a

$1,133

2.96

3.09

2.90

3.89

3.40

3.31

2.46

3.90

Trip nights per party

Expenditures per party
Average number
of trips

a Figures in the table do not include Gem Show purchases. The expenditure figures for Gem and Mineral show visitors including
all Gem Show purchases were $578 per room night, $2,551 per person and $4,805 per party.

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

TABLE 6
Summary Statistics on
Private Home Visitors,
1995-96
People per party

2.6

Average length of stay

7.5

Average number of previous trips

4.8

Average local expenditures
per visitor

$ 128

Visitors learn about Tucson primarily from
family and friends and through business
or conventions. Nine percent learn about
Tucson from guidebooks, and 13% learn of
Tucson from brochures, magazines, newspaper articles or TV and radio shows and
advertisements. Once they are here, visitors
strongly prefer to receive travel information
through written materials and conversations
with knowledgeable locals.

Average local expenditures
per party

$ 330

Average local expenditures
per visitor night

HOTEL MARKET SEGMENTS

$

17

Average local expenditures
per party night

$

45

The following seven groups of hotel
visitors are analyzed separately: 1) international, 2) resort, 3) golf, 4) over 60 years
of age, 5) business, 6) leisure and 7) Gem
and Mineral Show visitors. The same visitor
may be included in more than one of these
groups. The highest expenditure per room
night is for resort visitor parties ($323) and
golfers ($299) (Table 5). Golfers spend
twice as much during their stay as resort
visitors because they stay more than twice
as long. The seven groups enjoy the same
attractions as other visitors, but there are
some interesting differences. Resort visitors
are more likely to visit the Downtown
Arts District, and golfers and international
visitors are more likely to visit Biosphere 2.

primary objective of 30% of hotel guests,
and another 14% are in Tucson to visit
family and friends.
While here, hotel visitors enjoy a wide
range of activities but shopping, sightseeing
and hiking are the most popular. Eleven
percent of our visitors play golf. The most
popular attractions for hotel visitors are the
Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum, Saguaro
National Park, Sabino Canyon, San Xavier
Mission, Pima Air and Space Museum and
Biosphere 2.
More than half of our hotel guests are
return visitors and 13% have returned at
least five times. Once here, 81% say they
plan to return. Most visitors generally like
the area, the climate and the friendly people.
Few visitors indicate they dislike something
about Tucson, but among those who do,
traffic congestion and other transportationrelated issues (such as street lighting, rude
drivers, and inadequate public transportation) are most frequently mentioned.
A few visitors also dislike the urban sprawl
and appearance of parts of Tucson.

PRIVATE HOME VISITORS
Tucson residents are hosts to approximately 1.4 million visitors in their homes.
Private home guests are here an average of
7.5 nights and spend $45 per party night. In
all, private home visitors spend $187 million
in Tucson (Table 6). Private home visitors
come predominantly from Arizona and other
western states (Table 7). Private home
visitors are very well educated (49% hold
bachelor’s degrees or above compared to
22% for the U.S. as a whole).

TABLE 8
Summary of Tucson's Overnight Visitors, 1995-96
Accommodation

Visitors

Visitor
Parties

Room or
Party
Nightsa

Total Visitor
Expenditures

Percentage
of Total
Expenditures

Hotels

1,105,000

533,000

2,772,000

$604,100,000

66

Private homes

1,361,000

523,000

3,936,000

$187,300,000

21

Non-RV winter visitors

11,000

5,000

861,000

$ 61,400,000

6

RV winter visitorsa

22,000

11,000

1,344,000

$ 56,000,000

7

2,499,000

1,072,000

8,913,000

$908,800,000

100

Total
a

Figures are room nights for hotel visitors and party nights for other overnight visitors

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

TABLE 7
Origin of Visitor Parties to
Private Homes, 1995-96
Percent
Arizona

15

Western states,
excluding Arizona

34

Central states

18

Southern states

16

Eastern states

9

International

10

SUMMARY
The results of this study demonstrate
the importance of tourism to the Tucson
economy. A staggering 25,700 wage and
salary jobs at hotels, eating and drinking
establishments, and retail shops are directly
attributable to the overnight tourism industry.
Through local purchases of supplies and
the spending of tourism-related income,
the industry generates another 10,800 jobs
in the local area for a total of 36,500 wage
and salary jobs.
In total, 2.5 million visitors come to
Tucson each year and they stay a total of
8.9 million room/party nights (Table 8).
Although the numbers of winter visitors are
not large, the non-RV and RV winter visitors
account for 2.2 million party nights because
they stay an average of four or five months.
The results of the study highlight the
importance of interpreted natural areas
to tourism in Tucson. The three most
frequently visited attractions, the Arizonasonora Desert Museum, Saguaro National
Park and Sabino Canyon, all provide visitors
with opportunities to experience and learn
about the sonoran desert.
In addition to the economic impact
measured in this study, tourism provides
other advantages to the community as well.
Local residents enjoy the wide variety of
restaurants and recreational facilities that
are available in Tucson. Tucson gets exposure through tourism that can result in firm
relocations or new business creation. In
addition, firm recruitment and retention is
facilitated by the quality of life that tourism
helps to provide. $
1

The authors want to thank the Metropolitan
Tucson Convention & Visitors Bureau (MTCVB)
for funding this research. Copies of the
complete study are available from the MTCVB.
P AG E S E VE N

A R I Z O N A

YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

72,400
47,900
24,500
33.8

70,600
49,425
21,175
30.0

66,700
47,925
18,775
28.1

63,400
49,900
13,500
21.3

61,850
49,575
12,275
19.8

-1.4
-3.7
9.6
11.1

0.9
-2.8
9.9
8.7

36,100
0
1,900
1,600
1,800
11,300
1,200
8,600
9,700

37,600
0
2,000
1,700
1,900
11,900
1,200
8,800
10,100

37,900
0
2,100
1,600
1,900
12,300
1,200
8,900
9,900

37,500
0
2,100
1,600
2,000
11,800
1,100
9,000
8,600

37,800
0
2,100
1,600
1,900
11,900
1,100
9,100
9,400

1.3
...
16.7
0.0
-5.0
-4.0
-15.4
9.6
-5.1

N/A
...
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

70,072
56,699
6,805
6,568
5,240
9,897

76,689
63,197
7,559
5,933
4,983
7,524

92,880
77,686
7,662
7,532
6,495
10,972

81,733
63,807
9,883
8,043
6,358
10,758

81,877
62,531
10,748
8,598
6,504
8,928

8.0
7.0
11.5
11.3
-3.9
-6.0

1.0
-0.5
4.2
10.5
-1.3
9.6

19,136
15,275
951
2,910

14,734
5,154
8,635
945

7,588
4,138
2,147
1,303

5,890
4,530
1,160
200

27,897
5,258
21,693
946

161.7
14.6
911.8
-75.9

-2.4
35.6
-12.3
-42.9

239
99

67
67

53
53

59
59

71
71

4.4
7.6

36.7
17.2

71,925
64,625
7,300
10.1

69,375
65,075
4,300
6.2

70,250
65,000
5,250
7.5

72,000
66,150
5,850
8.1

70,325
65,250
5,075
7.2

2.5
3.4
-7.7
-10.0

3.9
3.3
11.6
7.3

39,100
200
3,000
3,200
1,900
11,200
1,900
10,000
7,700

39,000
200
2,900
3,100
1,900
11,200
1,900
10,100
7,700

39,100
200
2,900
3,000
1,900
11,300
1,900
10,200
7,700

39,200
200
3,000
3,000
2,100
11,100
1,900
10,200
7,700

39,800
200
3,100
3,100
2,100
11,300
1,900
10,200
7,900

2.6
0.0
3.3
-0.0
10.5
-2.6
0.0
9.7
1.3

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

81,227
58,972
10,570
11,685
9,321
15,733

80,699
60,727
9,421
10,551
8,861
13,673

88,805
68,538
9,517
10,750
9,270
17,020

77,010
54,633
10,375
12,002
9,488
14,288

84,412
60,961
10,997
12,454
9,420
13,372

4.2
4.5
-6.0
13.2
-2.2
-14.4

6.7
5.8
2.2
15.3
2.4
-0.6

17,690
11,979
4,333
1,378

15,361
9,594
4,052
1,715

17,375
10,805
4,904
1,666

19,582
12,203
4,657
2,722

22,078
11,093
10,397
588

-14.4
20.6
1,800.7
-96.3

5.1
19.8
25.2
-40.4

141
141

114
108

121
121

137
135

119
115

7.2
3.6

13.5
11.4

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

58,950
49,075
9,875
16.8

57,550
48,875
8,675
15.1

56,100
48,375
7,725
13.8

55,775
48,775
7,000
12.6

54,925
48,250
6,675
12.2

-5.5
-5.2
-8.2
-2.9

-2.5
-4.5
11.3
14.1

40,000
100
1,600
2,500
2,300
11,000
1,200
8,300
13,000

40,200
100
1,700
2,300
2,300
11,200
1,100
8,400
13,100

40,200
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,600
1,100
8,300
12,900

39,400
100
1,600
2,300
2,300
11,000
1,200
8,200
12,700

39,900
100
1,600
2,400
2,300
11,100
1,200
8,300
12,900

-2.0
0.0
-5.9
4.3
0.0
-2.6
20.0
-1.2
-4.4

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

59,656
45,647
7,845
6,164
4,917
10,178

60,976
48,617
7,572
4,787
4,020
8,959

78,079
63,897
8,057
6,125
5,281
12,544

58,820
44,206
7,907
6,707
5,302
10,782

59,960
45,415
8,052
6,493
4,912
10,305

3.0
2.1
2.6
10.1
-4.9
2.8

3.7
5.0
-0.2
-0.2
-11.0
-11.3

28,514
12,381
13,734
2,399

15,887
9,753
890
5,244

5,896
4,294
1,602
0

6,436
5,821
615
0

7,089
5,084
738
1,267

-66.8
-75.6
235.5
263.0

32.3
7.9
172.0
30.7

280
84

56
53

54
54

70
70

56
54

-9.7
-12.9

16.3
1.2

35,425
32,025
3,400
9.6

34,850
31,875
2,975
8.5

34,575
31,600
2,975
8.6

35,000
31,525
3,475
9.9

34,675
31,450
3,225
9.3

-1.9
-2.3
1.6
3.6

-0.5
-1.4
10.2
10.6

25,300
3,100
2,100
1,900
800
5,800
500
4,100
7,000

25,200
3,000
2,100
1,900
800
5,800
500
4,000
7,100

25,300
3,000
2,100
1,900
800
5,900
500
4,000
7,100

24,600
3,000
2,000
1,900
800
5,500
500
3,900
7,000

24,800
3,000
2,000
1,900
800
5,400
400
4,000
7,200

1.2
3.4
17.6
5.6
0.0
-3.6
-20.0
5.3
-2.7

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

40,493
31,015
5,280
4,198
3,349
18,287

37,859
29,950
4,512
3,397
2,853
10,226

43,892
36,165
4,191
3,536
3,049
12,441

38,024
29,142
4,373
4,509
3,564
9,722

48,033
39,723
4,569
3,741
2,829
9,045

45.9
60.9
-0.8
3.1
-10.9
3.9

7.4
8.8
2.2
3.3
-7.9
23.6

14,111
3,792
8,499
1,820

3,736
3,415
0
321

4,964
4,682
0
282

2,780
1,714
927
139

4,608
3,246
181
1,181

-33.1
-28.5
26.6
-46.4

-28.1
10.5
-41.7
-55.1

37
37

33
33

39
39

21
21

34
34

-19.0
-19.0

2.5
16.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE NINE

A R I Z O N A

APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bar
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

53,050
43,925
9,125
17.2

51,725
43,800
7,925
15.3

51,850
43,725
8,125
15.7

52,650
42,475
10,175
19.3

51,950
42,450
9,500
18.3

-2.3
-4.7
10.1
12.7

-1.3
-3.8
12.4
14.1

41,100
900
2,100
1,700
2,600
7,400
1,200
8,200
17,000

41,300
900
2,000
1,700
2,600
7,600
1,200
8,000
17,300

41,300
900
2,000
1,700
2,600
7,500
1,200
8,100
17,300

39,200
900
1,900
1,700
2,600
7,100
1,200
7,800
16,000

39,900
900
1,900
1,600
2,600
7,100
1,200
8,100
16,500

-2.0
-10.0
35.7
-15.8
0.0
7.6
0.0
8.0
-10.8

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

52,421
39,011
5,227
8,183
6,527
8,920

46,760
36,163
3,754
6,843
5,747
7,227

56,886
45,409
4,397
7,080
6,105
9,733

42,841
31,847
3,939
7,055
5,577
6,644

42,545
32,818
3,249
6,478
4,900
5,201

-8.3
-8.3
-18.2
-2.1
-15.5
-15.2

-2.8
-4.3
3.1
1.3
-9.8
23.3

11,185
4,115
5,286
1,784

10,001
3,774
4,063
2,164

7,447
2,041
5,034
372

12,114
2,188
608
9,318

5,814
3,114
2,700
0

-63.1
-1.0
-70.6
-100.0

-14.0
26.2
-35.3
-31.8

43
43

38
38

25
25

26
26

35
35

6.1
6.1

35.0
36.6

125,525
117,550
7,975
6.4

123,725
116,925
6,800
5.5

121,425
114,450
6,975
5.7

122,950
113,600
9,350
7.6

122,125
113,625
8,500
7.0

1.7
1.8
0.6
-1.1

-0.0
-0.5
6.8
6.6

94,000
900
6,300
6,500
3,000
25,500
2,700
25,100
24,000

94,600
900
6,300
6,600
3,000
25,700
2,700
24,800
24,600

92,900
900
6,100
6,500
2,900
25,500
2,700
24,800
23,600

90,300
900
6,500
6,600
17,200
23,600
2,800
24,300
22,800

92,100
900
6,500
6,600
2,900
23,800
2,800
24,700
23,900

8.2
0.0
14.0
8.2
3.6
2.6
16.7
11.3
-2.4

3.4
0.0
8.1
10.1
43.5
3.1
8.1
7.2
-4.3

164,556
116,703
29,823
18,030
14,383
45,563

148,429
110,348
24,311
13,770
11,565
44,693

172,497
135,757
23,330
13,410
11,564
39,194

135,190
99,848
21,725
13,617
10,764
35,894

133,924
96,045
23,181
14,698
11,118
34,278

4.5
3.9
1.0
14.5
-1.1
0.1

6.3
6.5
4.8
7.0
-4.8
36.0

37,814
24,690
9,247
3,877

27,430
20,113
5,054
2,263

32,651
19,784
5,544
7,323

26,485
16,472
1,318
8,695

32,732
21,816
2,508
8,408

-51.5
5.3
-63.6
-78.9

-11.8
-7.4
-31.6
0.4

249
226

244
165

177
160

186
140

208
189

-11.1
26.0

1.6
8.6

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN

AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

1,475.6
1,415.4
60.2
3.8

1,479.4
1,427.6
51.8
3.7

1,474.9
1,425.4
49.5
3.6

1,482.7
1,431.3
51.4
3.3

1,481.4
1,433.1
48.3
3.3

2.9
3.0
-0.6
-5.7

2.6
2.3
11.7
8.0

1,338.8
6.8
93.2
154.3
116.3
38.0
71.0
325.4
82.1
243.3
97.2
411.7
179.2

1,360.5
6.8
93.9
154.1
116.0
38.1
71.0
332.6
82.7
249.9
97.9
418.1
186.1

1,361.6
6.8
93.7
153.6
115.8
37.8
71.9
340.4
83.9
256.5
99.0
416.4
179.8

1,338.8
7.2
90.0
153.9
116.4
37.5
71.2
332.7
82.8
249.9
99.2
415.1
169.5

1,365.7
7.5
90.5
154.6
117.2
37.4
71.5
335.5
84.5
251.0
100.1
423.0
183.0

6.2
13.6
2.3
1.0
1.6
-0.8
7.4
5.1
7.2
4.5
8.6
8.7
7.0

6.6
15.0
5.5
2.9
3.4
1.2
6.5
5.7
9.8
4.3
8.8
9.8
4.5

2,257,090
1,545,841
298,242
265,874
147,133
465,588

2,273,377
1,591,821
303,030
265,387
113,138
442,838

2,749,878
2,045,655
304,682
278,889
120,652
520,528

2,318,353
1,596,473
308,012
281,519
132,349
374,613

2,266,408
1,535,515
309,661
289,525
131,707
416,893

5.3
4.5
6.6
3.9
15.5
0.3

7.8
7.5
5.6
8.0
17.2
18.3

517,278
329,290
142,317
45,671

562,324
278,562
116,027
167,735

555,843
312,419
183,022
60,402

410,021
239,095
97,717
73,209

450,015
330,930
74,925
44,160

-29.1
-7.8
-50.2
-64.7

2.9
8.0
-5.2
-4.8

3,202
2,133
33
1,036

1,893
1,722
71
100

3,005
2,127
25
859

4,166
2,459
119
1,588

2,869
2,218
2
649

-33.9
-6.6
-93.8
-66.5

-3.8
-1.2
-45.6
-8.6

455,569
3,585
127,076

402,255
3,170
126,894

411,674
3,108
132,456

377,757
2,666
141,694

342,271
2,657
128,819

10.1
5.7
4.2

18.2
12.8
4.9

2,647,839
35,112

2,376,390
33,016

2,738,590
34,870

...
...

...
...

13.3
-0.3

9.2
-8.9

PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
95

I
96

II
96

III
96

IV
96

2,598.0
6.3
11.4
5.1
16.8

2,620.4
6.4
11.5
5.1
16.0

2,642.2
6.5
11.6
5.2
15.3

2,663.3
6.5
11.7
5.2
14.6

2,684.1
6.6
11.8
5.2
14.2

3.3
4.4
3.5
2.5
-15.5

3.5
5.3
4.0
2.4
-7.9

59,547
43,317
2,635
-32
9,776
9,121
22,920

60,945
44,336
2,675
-32
9,999
9,318
23,258

62,133
45,226
2,724
-32
10,181
9,481
23,516

63,319
46,107
2,773
-32
10,374
9,642
23,774

64,518
46,981
2,818
-32
10,585
9,802
24,037

8.3
8.5
7.0
0.5
8.3
7.5
4.9

8.8
9.0
7.0
0.8
8.6
8.0
5.2

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

PAGE ELEVEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

382.6
366.6
16.0
3.8

380.9
367.1
13.8
3.7

382.5
369.1
13.4
3.7

379.8
366.2
13.6
3.4

378.0
365.4
12.6
3.4

-0.7
-0.6
-3.8
-5.6

-1.4
-1.8
11.2
11.3

311.6
2.3
19.3
29.3
23.4
5.9
13.2
66.6
10.3
56.3
12.1
98.7
70.1

314.7
2.3
19.2
29.3
23.4
5.9
13.3
68.4
10.3
58.1
12.2
100.6
69.4

316.6
2.4
19.2
29.2
23.4
5.8
13.3
68.5
10.3
58.2
12.4
100.1
71.5

309.0
2.4
17.9
29.0
23.3
5.7
12.4
67.4
10.1
57.3
12.3
99.0
68.6

314.2
2.4
18.2
29.1
23.3
5.8
12.4
67.6
10.1
57.5
12.5
99.9
72.1

2.6
4.3
-2.7
5.1
7.4
-3.3
-9.5
0.4
1.0
0.3
2.5
8.0
0.6

2.1
3.3
-1.1
2.6
2.4
3.4
-2.9
-0.8
2.5
-1.3
1.3
7.3
-0.3

537,020
357,631
79,937
60,784
38,668
90,754

535,989
360,745
81,220
60,734
33,289
94,433

672,310
488,694
81,663
66,938
35,015
91,367

560,182
371,073
80,938
68,821
39,350
80,399

536,035
344,807
81,372
70,737
39,119
83,312

1.7
-0.6
4.5
2.0
19.0
2.4

3.7
2.9
3.4
4.7
11.4
2.1

124,890
48,266
66,589
10,035

68,477
40,430
21,892
6,155

46,208
32,414
9,529
4,265

77,278
37,014
28,660
11,604

63,642
33,613
24,094
5,935

-38.4
-48.7
1.5
-57.9

-9.4
-17.3
17.5
-21.5

390
383
7
0

341
337
4
0

365
365
0
0

349
337
12
0

370
360
2
8

-6.8
-8.9
0.0
...

-18.1
4.8
-4.0
-79.0

79,116
631
125,382

72,660
561
129,518

78,737
600
131,228

68,748
511
134,536

...
...
...

-6.8
-18.5
14.4

7.3
-0.9
8.5

287,290
20,114

270,615
19,671

302,025
18,468

289,361
20,103

...
...

2.2
-10.2

2.4
-3.0

TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA

Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
95

I
96

II
96

III
96

IV
96

766.5
1.2
2.8
1.7
3.4

770.6
1.2
2.8
1.7
3.0

774.6
1.2
2.8
1.7
2.8

778.6
1.2
2.9
1.7
2.8

782.6
1.2
2.9
1.7
2.9

2.1
0.7
1.8
2.5
-16.2

2.2
0.9
2.0
2.7
-20.7

14,816
9,346
582
121
2,958
2,974
19,330

15,042
9,481
588
124
2,991
3,034
19,519

15,268
9,630
597
126
3,025
3,085
19,711

15,488
9,771
606
129
3,062
3,132
19,893

15,699
9,898
613
131
3,105
3,177
20,060

6.0
5.9
5.4
8.9
5.0
6.8
3.8

6.2
6.1
5.2
9.5
4.8
7.4
3.9

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table
PAGE TWELVE

ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Copper Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Real Property
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13

E C O N O M I C

I N D I C A T O R S

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

2,275.3
2,137.0
138.3
5.7

2,268.1
2,150.7
117.4
5.6

2,258.3
2,145.6
112.7
5.4

2,264.4
2,150.0
114.4
5.2

2,255.2
2,149.1
106.1
5.2

1.6
1.7
0.2
0.0

1.4
0.9
10.9
9.6

1,938.1
14.5
129.9
201.3
152.0
49.3
98.3
60.6
471.0
101.9
369.1
117.0
575.5
330.6
43.0
287.6
169.3
42.2

1,961.4
14.6
130.4
201.0
151.7
49.3
98.7
60.9
482.7
102.9
379.8
117.4
579.5
337.1
42.6
294.5
170.5
42.3

1,966.9
14.6
129.9
200.3
151.3
49.0
99.8
61.9
488.1
104.1
384.0
118.2
583.6
332.4
43.0
289.4
172.4
42.9

1,922.9
14.6
124.8
200.8
152.0
48.8
98.4
60.8
474.5
103.4
371.1
118.8
575.2
316.2
42.5
273.7
157.2
40.8

1,956.8
14.6
125.6
201.8
153.0
48.8
98.8
61.3
475.0
105.5
369.5
120.0
587.4
333.6
42.6
291.0
173.8
40.9

4.8
4.3
2.5
2.2
2.8
0.2
5.4
6.8
3.5
5.6
2.9
6.4
8.1
2.9
-4.9
4.2
7.5
-4.4

5.4
9.1
4.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
5.1
6.7
4.7
7.4
4.0
6.8
8.3
3.2
-1.6
3.9
5.9
-0.3

17.51
13.07
11.61
18.19
10.60
12.52

17.64
12.87
11.75
17.94
10.59
12.83

17.10
12.57
11.69
18.06
10.65
13.25

17.10
13.59
11.62
18.36
10.99
13.49

17.10
14.14
11.56
18.38
11.71
13.26

3.1
14.6
2.7
12.3
12.4
-3.3

2.9
2.5
3.6
8.7
6.2
6.7

3,365,965
2,251,519
481,608
392,208
240,629
191,951
401,321
135,559
46,657
272,679
216,536
664,920
104,374
132,014

3,365,868
2,301,568
489,341
383,250
191,709
161,005
325,724
147,297
47,605
355,360
215,359
629,573
119,175
118,518

4,060,891
2,961,801
492,008
402,981
204,101
175,994
342,403
141,650
45,995
689,728
220,137
713,799
103,905
100,051

3,420,412
2,291,029
497,209
408,542
223,632
176,784
365,779
143,095
51,099
315,603
213,023
543,100
138,891
138,711

3,362,019
2,217,815
499,871
421,058
223,274
168,891
345,321
130,531
...
...
...
581,334
115,526
...

5.0
4.1
6.6
3.0
14.7
-0.9
6.6
2.2
16.3
14.6
13.6
0.1
-0.9
3.3

6.9
6.3
7.3
6.6
13.6
1.3
5.8
13.3
23.6
14.4
7.7
14.5
-15.8
9.3

770,618
449,788
250,956
69,874

717,950
370,795
160,613
186,542

677,972
390,577
211,782
75,613

560,586
319,037
135,662
105,887

613,875
414,154
137,236
62,485

-30.7
-15.1
-29.0
-69.5

0.2
4.6
-3.7
-11.3

4,250
3,058
93
1,099

2,675
2,437
101
137

3,836
2,883
36
917

3,376
3,192
54
130

3,872
2,980
38
854

-27.0
-5.9
-33.3
-58.9

-9.7
-1.8
-38.4
-32.3

1,931
1,452
25
453

1,706
1,270
20
416

1,678
1,276
10
392

1,701
1,193
29
478

1,743
1,255
23
465

29.1
23.8
-4.2
49.0

25.8
25.9
0.7
27.5

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
A R IZO N A' S E CO N OMY

PAGE THIRTEEN

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) E
Measures of Financial Institutions
Banks and S&Ls Combined ($mil) ASBD
Assets
Loans
Liabilities
Deposits
Equity Capital
Capital:Asset Ratio (%)

I N D I C A T O R S

IV
95

I
96

II
96

III
96

IV
96

4,346.9
9.4
18.4
9.0
23.9

4,380.1
9.3
18.4
9.1
24.0

4,413.4
9.6
18.4
8.8
23.6

4,446.1
9.7
18.5
8.8
22.6

4,477.9
9.6
18.5
8.9
21.7

3.0
2.3
0.5
-1.4
-9.2

3.1
3.8
2.1
0.3
-2.0

88,830
61,333
4,249
283
15,745
15,719

92,142
63,747
4,404
292
16,325
16,182

92,984
64,295
4,438
294
16,284
16,549

94,724
65,503
4,512
298
16,569
16,866

96,386
66,621
4,580
303
16,827
17,216

8.5
8.6
7.8
6.9
6.9
9.5

8.8
9.2
8.2
6.2
8.2
7.9

49,711
5,878
5,744
432
5,312
20,435
26,622

51,556
6,032
5,701
313
5,388
21,036
27,189

52,311
6,039
5,858
379
5,479
21,069
27,321

53,341
6,134
6,009
465
5,544
21,305
27,366

54,270
6,201
6,020
364
5,656
21,525
27,546

9.2
5.5
4.8
-15.7
6.5
5.3
3.5

9.6
6.2
5.8
-5.5
6.7
5.6
3.9

38,527
23,303
35,558
32,546
2,969
8.6

39,505
23,735
36,640
32,593
2,865
8.1

39,810
24,161
36,140
32,512
3,670
10.1

31,064
21,266
28,558
25,909
2,506
8.9

32,145
22,699
29,791
27,252
2,354
8.1

-16.6
-2.6
-16.2
-16.3
-20.7
NA

-2.9
2.1
-3.0
-5.9
-2.1
NA

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS
Metropolitan Phoenix
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Sources and abbreviations:

ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business,
Research Centers
PAGE FOURTEEN

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

IV
95

I
96

II
96

III
96

IV
96

161.3
154.3
153.6
150.9

162.9
156.4
155.0
152.3

168.4
157.5
156.5
153.9

167.6
158.6
157.4
154.6

168.6
158.7
158.5
155.8

4.5
2.9
3.2
3.2

5.1
2.7
2.9
2.9

108.4
108.3

109.0
108.9

109.6
109.8

110.2
110.2

110.7
111.0

2.1
2.5

2.1
2.2

MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters

OCT
96

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

158.3
155.5

158.6
155.9

158.6
155.9

159.1
156.3

159.6
156.8

BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0

NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

A R I Z O N A

E C O N O M I C

OCT
96

I N D I C A T O R S

NOV
96

DEC
96

JAN
97

FEB
97

% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months

TRAVEL AND TOURISM
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation

1,756,978
178,249
543,390
1,035,339
226,341
47,097
151,082
28,162

1,079,010
104,975
287,789
686,246
229,557
43,293
166,932
19,332

989,348
95,074
220,602
673,672
236,285
52,229
171,159
12,897

963,301
87,444
199,349
676,508
278,813
59,343
198,886
20,584

962,805
114,706
246,255
601,844
...
83,772
...
34,162

-6.0
-12.3
-0.2
-7.0
...
-9.8
...
-2.6

-5.4
2.1
-7.4
-5.6
...
1.6
...
-8.0

International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles

706,664
1,788,255
753,376

836,221
1,589,184
...

732,435
1,874,219
...

740,695
1,855,077
755,181

...
...
...

5.5
-6.0
-1.1

4.3
-2.9
...

See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.

NOTE: The publication date of Arizona’s Economy is in transition from the middle
month of each quarter to the first month of each quarter. To accomplish this change,
we will publish our next issue in September followed by an issue in January, 1998,
and every three months thereafter – April, July and October, 1998.

TO ORDER
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1990 Arizona Statistical Abstract, includes 1980 Census data.
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ARIZONA'S ECONOMY IS PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE KARL
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BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, THE UNIVERSITY
OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721. 520-621-2155.
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ARIZONA'S ECONOMY

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PAGE FIFTEEN