DCDC 2010-2011
Annual Progress Report
Decision Center for a Desert City II:
Urban Climate Adaptation
SES-0951366

Principal Investigators
Patricia Gober (PI, Co-Director)
Charles Redman (Co-PI, Co-Director)
Craig Kirkwood (Co-PI)
Margaret Nelson (Co-PI)
Dave White (Co-PI, Assoc. Director)

Submitted to the
National Science Foundation
Via Fastlane
July 24, 2011

Decision Center for a Desert
City II

DCDC 2010-2011
Table of Contents
I. Introduction to DCDC

3

II. Findings of Research Activities

13

III. Education and Development

16

IV. Outreach Activities

18

V. Contributions

21

VI. Partner Organizations

244

VII. DCDC Participants

288

Principal Investigators:
Patricia Gober (PI, Co-Director)
Charles Redman (Co-PI, Co-Director)
Craig Kirkwood (Co-PI)
Margaret Nelson (Co-PI)
Dave White (Co-PI, Assoc. Director)
Executive Committee:
Patricia Gober
Craig Kirkwood
Liz Marquez
Margaret Nelson
Charles Redman
Dave White
Staff:
Katja Brundiers
Bill Edwards
Liz Marquez
Estella O’Hanlon
Annissa Olsen
Ray Quay
David Sampson
Sally Wittlinger
Teams:
Adaptation
Decision Analysis
Decision Processes
Institutional Roles in Decision Making
Boundary Studies
Education and Resource Development
Outcomes
Distributional Effects
Economic Feedbacks
Urban System Impacts
Uncertainties
Climate Change

I. Introduction to DCDC
The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) at Arizona State University (ASU) was established in 2004
by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to advance scientific understanding of environmental decision
making under conditions of uncertainty. Bolstered by new funding from the NSF, “DCDC II” was
launched in October 2010 and is poised to expand its already-extensive research agenda, further engage
the policy community, and forge stronger ties between knowledge and action. In this second phase of
DCDC funding, we will develop fundamental knowledge about decision making from three
interdisciplinary perspectives: climatic uncertainties, urban-system dynamics, and adaptation decisions.
Simulation modeling and boundary organization studies are cross-cutting themes and will be core DCDC
activities.
To date, DCDC has produced: (1) a critical mass of basic research, including over 200 articles, books, and
book chapters (65 of these appearing to date in 2010–2011); (2) WaterSim, a dynamic water-simulation
model that serves as an important basis for stakeholder engagement and decision support, a point of
articulation for interdisciplinary research, and an experimental setting to study decision making under
uncertainty; (3) an extensive network of relationships with regional water managers and resource
decision makers; (4) productive partnerships with research and education efforts affiliated with ASU’s
Global Institute for Sustainability (GIOS), including the Central Arizona–Phoenix Long Term Ecological
Research (CAP LTER) project, the Decision Theater, and the School of Sustainability; and (5) a significant
and growing set of comparative and collaborative partnerships linking our Phoenix-based case study to
water sustainability and urban climate adaptation efforts nationally and internationally.
As our mission has evolved to focus not only on water sustainability but also urban climate adaptation,
DCDC researchers now work to develop and implement decision-support processes for environmental
decision making. Through an integrated approach to research and education, DCDC trains a new
generation of scientists who work successfully at the boundaries of science and policy. DCDC II continues
to build bridges between science and policy to foster local-to-global sustainability solutions.

Research Activities
We have organized DCDC II around water and other
resource decisions in a complex, dynamic urban
system and structured our research in terms of an
integrated decision process. DCDC II’s conceptual
approach posits that the uncertainties of climate
change affect individual and societal alternatives
(adaptation decisions), which function through an
urban system with economic feedbacks and
distributional (social and spatial) consequences.
Points of focus for our interdisciplinary research
agenda are: 1) climatic uncertainties, 2) outcomes
(economic feedbacks, urban system dynamics, and
distribution effects), and 3) adaptation decisions.
Activities cutting across these themes are simulation
modeling and boundary studies.
Climatic Uncertainties
During the initial phase of DCDC, researchers identified and addressed major climatic uncertainties
facing Phoenix, including interannual drought, climate change, and the urban heat island. We have
explored the sensitivity of urban water demand to variations in climate to clarify the effect of this
uncertainty for our region and its spatiotemporal variability. In DCDC II, we are refining climate and
hydrological models to represent the physical characteristics and hydraulic dynamics of our watersheds.
We will determine the key areas that generate our water supply (what happens if land use/cover
changes), the importance of precipitation intensity (what happens to extremes under future climate
change), the importance of snow versus rain (what happens to precipitation types under future climate
change and what are the impacts on water supply), and the potential effects of changing land-use
conditions with wildfires, urban development, and agricultural policies.
In the first year of DCDC II, climate scientist Robert Balling and colleagues continued their successful line
of research developing a basic understanding of physical processes that underlie climate and drought
conditions in the Southwest. In an article in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Svoma et al. (2010)
developed a high-resolution model for estimating soil moisture for the Salt River Basin. Two articles
appeared last year in Physical Geography that used various spatial analytical methods to assess drought
trends in the Southwest and conterminous US (Balling and Goodrich 2010; Svoma and Balling 2010). In
an article in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Balling and Goodrich (2011) examined variations and
trends in precipitation intensity in the conterminous US.
In a second line of climatic-uncertainties research supported under DCDC II, climatologists Andrew Ellis
and Robert Balling and their team worked closely with Water Resource Operations personnel from Salt
River Project (SRP) to assess how projected changes in runoff under various climate-change scenarios
might threaten surface-water replenishments of the SRP reservoir system. They developed and
authored a reservoir simulation model (ResSim; FORTRAN programming language on a UNIX platform)
incorporating the same parameters and operational guidelines as embodied in the SRP Long-Term Drought
Planning Model (LTDPM), allowing efficient exploration of many climate and runoff scenarios. This collabor-

ation resulted in supplementary funding from SRP to test the model using historical data and compare
with LTDPM results, confirming equivalent ability to reflect key periods of drought vulnerability.
Environmental Economics – Water Demand Research
Economist Kerry Smith continues to lead a dynamic research program focused on economic and noneconomic factors that influence residential water demand. This research informs the design and
evaluation of alternative price and non-price measures for promoting water conservation and evaluating
climate-adaptation policies. In the past year, Smith and his team have been developing a structural
model of residential land use for the Arizona “Sun Corridor” region, progressing as data have become
available. The model will enable an integrated assessment of long-term policies that influence household
water behavior. Special attention is being devoted to interactions between public land and water policies.
Two sets of research were completed during the first year of DCDC II. The first study exploits the
systematic changes in price schedule with season and the panel structure of water records to measure
price responsiveness without requiring detailed consideration of the increasing block rate structure. To
our knowledge, this is the first time this strategy has been recognized. A second new contribution
involves using the linked housing data and water meter records for Phoenix and Tucson water
departments that resulted from cooperative data-sharing agreements with each water department. The
research exploits the logic of propensity score matching to control for the structure and landscape
influences on water demand and extracts the first “pure” price schedule assessment.
Research in progress has led to several intermediate insights. First, structural-modeling work has
demonstrated an important interaction that influences preliminary estimates of households’ tradeoffs
for enhancements in amenities. This interaction arises due to linkages between the spatial scale of the
definition of a community and the spatial scale of the measure used for landscape-related amenities
(including proxies for ecosystem services). A second, intermediate insight concerns the potential for
important effects of endogeneity in measures of spatial amenities and un-observable variables
describing site attributes due to household residential choices in response to the features of the
alternative neighborhoods available. Research to date has adapted the Abbott-Klaiber (2010) framework
to test the importance of these effects.
Urban Systems Dynamics
Urban planner Subhrajit Guhathakurta led a team that included engineer Eric Williams, DCDC II postdoc
Ariane Middel, and several graduate students, to develop a dynamic network model to examine trends
in energy use and carbon emissions associated with urban form, land-use patterns, buildings, and travel
behavior. Their networked infrastructure model integrates energy use in separate categories (vehicles,
travel infrastructure, buildings) into a dynamic network where each activity node depends upon other
nodes of both similar and different activities. Their analysis addresses questions about human-climate
interactions in the city such as: how do different urban forms and land-use patterns contribute to
energy use and GHG emissions; how do urban energy use and GHG emissions evolve as a community
changes over time; and how do socioeconomic characteristics of the population influence patterns of
land use and travel behavior and their implications for energy and emissions?
In another recently completed study, Guhathakurta and colleagues advanced three aspects of life cycle
assessment (LCA) of residences: functional unit, technological progress, and scaling properties. They
explored these issues through a case study of energy use of detached homes in Phoenix. This research

relates residential energy use to unit size, characteristics, and neighborhood urban form. The objective
is to inform planning of energy-efficient and low-carbon residential communities in the US. Additionally,
this team developed a parametric LCA model that can estimate the embedded energy and GHG emission
in the material manufacturing and construction processes for most types of single-family homes in Phoenix.
Geographers Patricia Gober, Anthony Brazel, Soe Myint, and postdoc Ariane Middel continued their
NOAA-funded collaboration with Portland State University. Recent work examines how changes in land
use/cover alter the local surface energy balance and contribute to distinct urban climates. The objective
is to identify the extent to which current land cover and regional climate controls the surface energy
balance. The researchers are using a Local Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme
(LUMPS) to analyze the relative attributions of local weather extremes and land-cover variations on the
urban energy balance. Several articles from this effort are under review, and one published article
(Myint et al. 2011) describes the remote sensing that underpinned the land-cover classification.
Distributional Effects – Vulnerability, Resilience and Risk
People and places may experience different vulnerabilities to climate change because of variations, not
only in exposure, but in sensitivity and capacity to respond to climatic shocks and stresses. In the first year
of DCDC II, we extended our research on vulnerability to heat stress.
The expanding and intensifying urban head island partly motivates this work, but takes on added
significance as climate change threatens to increase temperatures further. Recent work documents
warming in Phoenix and deleterious impacts as critical temperature thresholds are passed. Another
study developed an index of vulnerability based on physical exposure to heat stress and adaptive
capacity of the population to cope and showed that Phoenix’s minority populations became more
vulnerable to excessive heat between 1990 and 2000 (Chow et al. 2011). Sociologist Sharon Harlan and
DCDC postdoc Darren Ruddell examined human vulnerabilities and health impacts of heat stress and air
quality in cities and the potential co-benefits of mitigation and adaptation strategies (Harlan and Ruddell
2011).
Adaptation Decisions – Decision Science and Policy
During this past year, Craig Kirkwood, along with L. Robin Keller (University of California, Irvine) and Jay
Simon (Naval Postgraduate School), completed research (extending Simon’s 2009 doctoral dissertation)
to develop and implement new analysis methods for decision problems with geographically varying
outcomes. Also this year, Kirkwood, Gober, and others produced several articles using WaterSim for
decision analysis. These included a study of the robustness of various water policies in the face of
climate uncertainty (Gober et al. 2010), a vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in
Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood 2010), and a description of WaterSim development and use for policy
analysis (Gober et al. 2011).
A second line of decision science and policy research supported by DCDC, led by Erik Johnston and
Yushim Kim of the School of Public Affairs and Ajay Vinze from the W. P. Carey School of Business,
examines cooperative behavior and collaboration amongst diverse stakeholders to achieve collective
goals. Governments have increasingly adopted inclusive processes to engage non-state actors, and
especially active engagement of citizens and communities, to solve local policy challenges. The success
of this inclusive approach depends upon whether, and to what extent, all involved individuals, interest
groups, communities, and government agencies collectively deliberate and work together. The study

team used WaterSim and the Decision Theater to conduct experiments exploring the potential of an ITfacilitated communication environment on cooperative behavior.
Adaptation Decisions – The Psychology of Environmental Decision Making
In DCDC II, we added a team of ASU psychologists including Susan Ledlow, Ed Sadalla, Douglas Kenrick,
Steven Neuberg, and graduate and undergraduate students. They employ both evolutionary and
sociocultural models to understand environmental decision making. In year one of DCDC II, the
psychology team conducted several studies to examine: 1) priorities in residential water use in the
Phoenix area; 2) social symbolism of landscaping; 3) framing effects in advertisements for conservation
behavior; 4) belief in climate change and perceptions of climate-change consensus; and 5) temporal
discounting in the valuation of the long-term payback of energy-efficiency upgrades.
Human-environmental geographer Kelli Larson seeks to understand the bases of environmental
judgments and decision making. She has developed a tripartite model of affective, cognitive, and
conative judgments to explain the sociocultural basis for environmental judgments (Larson et al. 2011b).
In a another paper in Environment and Behavior, co-authored with graduate student Dorothy Ibes and
DCDC Associate Director Dave White, Larson examined gendered perspectives about water risks and
policy strategies (Larson et al. 2011a). Incorporating an array of perspectives on human-ecological
problems and possible solutions helps to ensure that sustainability policies are socially accepted and
culturally appropriate.
Simulation Modeling – WaterSim Model Development
In DCDC II, we have continued to implement and refine our signature computer-simulation model,
WaterSim, to investigate how alternative climate conditions, rates of population growth, and policy
choices interact to affect future water
supply and demand conditions in Phoenix.
We designed WaterSim not only as a
decision-support tool but as a hybrid
boundary object designed to link science
and policy to improve environmental
decision making under conditions of
uncertainty. As such, the modeling effort
incorporates structured ongoing feedback
from stakeholders and researchers.
WaterSim is a hierarchical model that
uses supply from surface and
groundwater sources and demand from
residential, commercial, and agricultural
sectors, incorporating the rules that
govern reservoirs, aquifer use, and landuse change. Gober et al. (2011) in Environment and Planning B and Sampson et al. (2011) in Journal of
Environmental Management described the development of WaterSim. The current version of the model,
WaterSim 4.0, is comprised of (1) a Microsoft C# interface; (2) a C# library module; and (3) a simulation
model (FORTRAN) that houses the rules and algorithms to model water supply and demand, all at the
water provider-level. WaterSim 4.0 runs on an annual time-step, but monthly estimates can be

generated for many of the output variables. WaterSim 4.0 produces water supply and use patterns for
33 Phoenix Metropolitan Area water providers.
DCDC II’s WaterSim Steering Committee developed recommendations for model improvements based
on feedback from the research community and community partners. The new version of WaterSim,
which will include a Microsoft.Net-based standalone model (which does not require PowerSIM) with a
documented application interface (API), is being developed in FORTRAN and C#.
Simulation Modeling –Hydrological Modeling
DCDC II also supported Enrique Vivoni’s team from the School of Earth and Space Exploration to apply a
distributed hydrological model of the Beaver Creek Basin in Arizona using the Triangulated Irregular
Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). These model applications will help us
detect and predict the consequences of land-use change and climate change on watershed hydrology.
Activities to date include the development of full-scale model simulations of the Beaver Creek Basin for
June through September 2006. Vivoni has processed model forcing for additional summer periods
(2007–2009) and will examine that period in the future. Model calibration with respect to the observed
streamflow at three gauging stations is underway and will add confidence to the model’s predictive
ability when applied to future scenarios. These simulations use high-resolution parameter fields that
describe the watershed topography, soils distribution, land cover/use, and meteorological forcing.
Boundary Studies – Science-Policy Interactions and Boundary Organizations
From the outset, we structured DCDC as a boundary organization designed to understand and enhance
the linkages between scientific knowledge production and public-policy deliberation and decision making.
Led by Dave White, our efforts have contributed to basic understanding of the co-production of knowledge
and action for environmental decision making under uncertainty. Research activities explore three
interconnected domains:
 boundary work – boundary-ordering devices, processes, and methods linking science and policy
 boundary organizations – institutional forms overlapping scientific research and political
decision making and public action
 boundary objects – hybrid constructs, integrating scientific and political elements to facilitate
the exchange of knowledge and action.
In the past year, we have advanced scientific understanding of science-policy interactions by:
(1) collaborating to a greater extent with stakeholders to co-produce knowledge; (2) expanding the
range of boundary processes and objects studied; (3) mapping diversity of stakeholder perceptions; (4)
fostering international collaborations; and (5) transferring lessons from DCDC to other boundary
organizations. In June 2011, White presented a paper to the International Symposium on Society and
Resource Management summarizing the state of knowledge for boundary-organization research and
addressing major epistemological and methodological issues in the field.
DCDC postdoc Bethany Cutts, Dave White, and Ann Kinzig published an article in Environmental Science and
Policy (Cutts et al. 2011) that integrates concepts from boundary organization theory with a participatory
geographic information systems framework. Using a participatory action research approach, the researchers
analyzed water information maps as a boundary object and assessed changes in the saliency, legitimacy, and
credibility of the maps through a stakeholder engagement process. This research not only refined boundary
organization theory but met our goal of more active co-production of knowledge and action.

In a continuing effort to examine boundary work through scenario construction and sustainability
assessments, Arnim Wiek, Kelli Larson, and DCDC doctoral student Lauren Withycombe conducted an
appraisal of the Phoenix water system using a layered conceptual model. The model specified principles
of water sustainability in order to assess long-term sustainability. The goals of this research are to: 1)
analyze the regional water system in Phoenix, including roles and activities for all relevant stakeholders;
2) define where stakeholders engage; 3) document why stakeholders take the actions they do; and 4)
identify the impacts of the first three on water sustainability and urban climate adaptation.
This year, we began collaborating with Colin Polsky and Clark University PhD student Katherine Foo, who
traveled to Phoenix August 2010 for the DCDC II strategic-planning retreat. This summer, the Clark team,
which also includes seven undergraduate and four graduate students funded through Polsky’s other
existing projects, is producing a set of stakeholder-led scenarios of near-term future (coming two to three
decades) of socioecological landscape interactions. This effort is divided into two groups of activities, one
grounded in Geographic Information Science (GISci) and one in social science. These activities will cement
relationships with Boston-area stakeholders, expanding the analytical scope of scenario production and
assessment beyond water and climate. These activities parallel scenario construction and assessment
efforts in Phoenix led by DCDC researchers Arnim Wiek, George Basile, Grady Gammage, Jr., Dave White,
and others, which will enable comparisons between Boston and Phoenix.
Education Activities
We have integrated DCDC research into learning materials and educational programs, engaging a variety
of formal and informal education partners. The Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars
(COURS) and Community of Graduate Scholars (CGS) programs bring together undergraduate and
graduate students from multiple disciplines to build interdisciplinary thinking and communication skills.
This goal is accomplished through two semesters of a weekly seminar class and several research
activities designed to build research skills.
New this year, Katja Brundiers (DCDC Community-University Liaison), Margaret Nelson (Co-PI and Vice
Dean of Barrett, the Honors College at ASU), and Amy Lively (Internship Coordinator from the School of
Sustainability at ASU), developed and implemented the first “Internship for Science-Practice Integration”
program (ISPI). The ISPI program connected DCDC with water-management stakeholders by placing
students within agencies to carry out research-oriented internship projects. In addition to their
internship, students participated in a three-credit hour course to design and implement their own useinspired research project. To ensure academic rigor and state-of-the-art research ideas, each student
met with a DCDC researcher for scientific input and feedback on their projects. Through this program,
students were introduced to the concepts and practical aspects of policy-relevant research. The ISPI
program included seven partnerships with agencies such as city municipalities, private companies, and
nonprofit organizations, as well as students from three different departments. Results of students’ useinspired research projects were shared at DCDC’s Annual Poster Symposium. The poster symposium
featured research from all DCDC’s educational programs: Community of Graduate Scholars (4 students),
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (18 students), and Internship for Science-Practice
Integration (7 students). The Symposium attracted a large and mixed audience, including parents,
faculty from diverse ASU departments, internship mentors, and related professionals from watermanagement agencies. Highlighting the early success of the ISPI program, one intern from the inaugural

class, Josh Abbott, was asked to speak about his experiences working as a DCDC intern with the City of
Mesa to the Arizona Board of Regents, the governing body for Arizona’s three state universities.
Monica Elser, education team leader, collaborated again this year with the University of Arizona’s (UA’s)
water-education programs (Project Wet, Cooperative Extension, and the Water Sustainability program)
to deliver a two-day Advanced Water Educator Workshop on public perceptions of water. The 2011
workshop was the sixth in a series that provides community partners with timely information about
water issues and connects university scientists (DCDC, ASU, UA) with the water-stakeholder community.
DCDC has hosted this activity annually since 2006, highlighting such topics as management (2006),
climate change and decision making (2007), water re-use (2008), energy-water nexus (2009), and water
and the future of agriculture (2010).
Margaret Nelson worked with DCDC graduate students to organize the Decision Making Under
Uncertainty poster symposium for the 2011 AAAS Annual Meeting in Washington, DC. Additionally,
graduate fellows associated with the NSF-funded GK-12 Sustainability Science for Sustainable Schools
grant used DCDC research methods and findings to create classroom lessons.

References
Abbott, J., and H.A. Klaiber. 2010. An embarrassment of riches: Confronting omitted variable bias and
multi-scale capitalization in hedonic price models. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
DOI:10.1162/REST_a_00134.
Balling, R.C., and G.B. Goodrich. 2010. Increasing drought in the American Southwest? A continental
perspective using a spatial analytical evaluation of recent trends. Physical Geography 31(4):293-306.
Balling, R.C., and G.B. Goodrich. 2011. Spatial analysis of variations and trends in precipitation intensity
in the USA. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104(3-4):415-421.
Chow, W.T.L., W-C. Chuang, and P. Gober. 2011. Vulnerability to extreme heat in metropolitan Phoenix:
Spatial, temporal and demographic dimensions. The Professional Geographer.
DOI:10.1080/00330124.2011.600225.
Cutts, B.B., D.D. White, and A.P. Kinzig. 2011. Participatory geographic information systems for the coproduction of science and policy in an emerging boundary organization. Environmental Science and
Policy. DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.012.
Gober, P., and C.W. Kirkwood. 2010. Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in
Phoenix. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107(50):21295-21299.
Gober, P., C.W. Kirkwood, R.C. Balling, A.W. Ellis, and S. Deitrick. 2010. Water planning under climatic
uncertainty in Phoenix: Why we need a new paradigm. Annals of the Association of American
Geographers 100(2):356-372.
Gober, P., E.A. Wentz, T. Lant, M.K. Tschudi, and C.W. Kirkwood. 2011. WaterSim: A simulation model
for urban water planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Environment and Planning B 38(2):197-215. DOI:
10.1068/b36075.
Harlan, S.L., and D. Ruddell. 2011. Climate change and health in cities: Impacts of heat and air pollution
and potential co-benefits from mitigation and adaptation. Current Opinion in Environmental
Sustainability 3:126-134.
Larson, K.L., D. Ibes, and D. White. 2011a. Gendered perspectives about water risks and policy
strategies: A tripartite conceptual approach. Environment and Behavior 43(3):415-438. DOI:
10.1177/0013916510365253.
Larson, K.L., A. Wutich, D. White, T. Munoz-Erickson, and S. Harlan. 2011b. Multifaceted perspectives on
water risks and policies: A cultural domains approach in a Southwestern city. Human Ecology Review
18(1):75-87.
Myint, S.W., P. Gober, A. Brazel, S. Grossman-Clarke, and Q. Weng. 2011. Per-pixel versus object-based
classification of urban land cover extraction using high spatial resolution imagery. Remote Sensing of
Environment 115(5):1145-1161.

Sampson, D.A., V. Escobar, M.K. Tschudi, T. Lant, and P. Gober. 2011. A provider-based water planning
and management model—WaterSim 4.0—for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. Journal of Environmental
Management 92(10):2596-2610. DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.05.032.
Svoma, B.M., and R.C. Balling. 2010. United States’ interannual precipitation variability over the past
century: Is variability increasing as predicted by models? Physical Geography 31(4):307-318.
Svoma, B.M., R.C. Balling, and A.W. Ellis. 2010. Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River
watershed of Central Arizona. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 102(1-2):159-169. DOI:
10.1007/s00704-010-0255-1.

II. Findings of Research Activities
Effects of Climate Change on Soil Moisture and Precipitation in the Southwest
A series of studies by DCDC climate scientists have clarified the effects of climate change on soil and
precipitation conditions in the Southwest. Taken together, these studies document the effects of warming
and drying trends on soil and precipitation and help characterize the climatic uncertainties for our region.
Svoma et al. (2010) found evidence of increased surface pressure over the Salt River Basin during the
latter half of the 20th century, which may be a catalyst for drier conditions. Balling and Goodrich (2010)
identified a highly statistically significant trend toward increased drought in the Southwest; the trend is
particularly strong over the Colorado River Basin. Svoma and Balling (2010) found that precipitation
variability appeared to have increased in the critical winter season in the Southwest. Results from the US
provide empirical support for the many modeling studies simulating an increase in precipitation variability
given continued global warming. Balling and Goodrich (2011) found evidence in support of an upward
trend in precipitation intensity as the planet has warmed.
Energy Implications of Urban Housing Design
Subhrajit Guhathakurta, Eric Williams, Master’s student Stephane Frijia, and postdoc Ariane Middel
developed a parametric lifecycle analysis model to estimate the embedded energy and GHG emissions
in the material manufacturing and construction processes for single-family homes in Phoenix. Embedded
energy is defined as the total energy required for an entire product lifecycle. It includes the extraction
and transport of raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and deconstruction. Study results for the
lifecycle analysis of single-family homes showed a linear relationship between embedded energy and
dwelling size. For one-story buildings, energy use per area ranges from 5.34 GJ/m2 to 6.45 GJ/m2. For
two-story buildings, the range is 4.85 GJ/m2 to 5.79 GJ/m2. Thus, embedded energy increases linearly
with increasing dwelling size (floor plan), but is smaller for two-story buildings compared to one-story
buildings. The group's findings document that 18 to 30% of the total lifecycle energy can be attributed to
materials and construction processes, as opposed to the 0.4 to 11% found in other studies.
Land Cover, Climate, and the Summer Surface Energy Balance in Phoenix and Portland
Ariane Middel, Anthony Brazel, Patricia Gober, and Soe Myint used a Local Scale Urban Meteorological
Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) to analyze the relative attributions of local weather extremes and
land-cover variations on the urban energy balance (Middel et al. 2011, International Journal of Climatology).
Results show that incoming solar radiation is an important driver of the surface energy balance in
LUMPS and should be considered in the generation of climate scenarios. Results suggest that land-cover
manipulation could offset influences of weather extremes on evapotranspiration in Portland to a certain
degree, but not in Phoenix. These findings suggest the importance of the spatial and climatic context in
the urban design process to mitigate the effects of urbanization.
Residential Water Demand
Economist Kerry Smith’s research on structural demand models for residential water demand (Strong
and Smith 2010) has been extended in two ways. First, he has developed a quasi-experimental framework
for exploiting periodic changes in water rates to estimate price elasticities that vary with size of user and
weather conditions. Findings confirm that elasticity varies with scale (amount of water consumption)
and weather conditions (both precipitation and temperature) when estimating demand and overall

seasonal drought conditions. Second, postdoc Min Qiang (Kent) Zhao and Smith have developed a
propensity score matching estimator to link residential properties based on the structural and land
attributes of the homes. This process allows residential water demand to be compared controlling for waterusing appliances and proxy measures for outdoor uses in Phoenix and Tucson. This method matches
comparable homes, controls for differences in weather conditions, and evaluates the effects of the overall
price schedule on water demand. The results indicate the Tucson schedule, after controlling for factors
influencing indoor/outdoor uses and differences in weather conditions, leads to a significantly lower level of
water consumption.
Research on housing prices in Maricopa County by Klaiber and Smith has established several findings
related to water policy. They estimated the effects of mesic (wet) versus xeric (dry) landscapes at the
subdivision level on home sales prices from the 1990s through 2006. After controlling for structural
attributes, distance from the central business district and other amenities, they find a robust and
significant premium for mesic landscapes and discounted prices for xeric.
In a subsequent analysis, Klaiber and Smith used the same data with PRISM temperature data to investigate
the heat-island effect. Using an extension of the Abbott-Klaiber (2010) adaptation of random effects
modeling structure, Klaiber and Smith found that a significant number of homeowners in Maricopa
County are willing to pay ~3% premium for homes with one degree lower nighttime temperatures. This
would be about $50 per month. It is larger than estimates developed using stated preference methods
with the Phoenix Area Social Survey in 2006.
Social Symbolism of Landscape Preference
Two studies of the social symbolism of landscaping preferences showed consensus among participants
that a desert landscape conveys a less attractive, lower-status, family-unfriendly image. This effect was
strong and occurred in both experiments. Respondents perceived that environmentalism, money
savings, and ease of maintenance motivated the choice of desert landscaping whereas grass landscaping
reflected a desire to interact with one’s neighbors and to raise a family. Results of the first study were
presented at the Association for Psychological Science meeting in Washington, DC, in May 2011.
Social and Cultural Bases of Ecological Perspectives
In a series of papers dealing with social and cultural bases of ecological perspectives, Kelli Larson, Dave
White, and colleagues developed a theoretical model that includes: (1) affective concern about the risks
of water scarcity; (2) cognitive perceptions about the causes of resource shortages; and (3) conative
support for alternative policies. Findings showed that women expressed significantly greater emotional
concern about water scarcity than did men (Larson et al. 2011a, Environment and Behavior) and that
ethnicity and ecological worldviews significantly influence affective, cognitive, and conative judgments
about water issues in metro Phoenix (Larson et al. 2011b, Human Ecology Review).

References
Abbott, J., and H.A. Klaiber. 2010. An embarrassment of riches: Confronting omitted variable bias and
multi-scale capitalization in hedonic price models. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
DOI:10.1162/REST_a_00134.
Balling, R.C., and G.B. Goodrich. 2010. Increasing drought in the American Southwest? A continental
perspective using a spatial analytical evaluation of recent trends. Physical Geography 31(4):293-306.
Balling, R.C., and G.B. Goodrich. 2011. Spatial analysis of variations and trends in precipitation intensity
in the USA. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104(3-4):415-421.
Larson, K.L., D. Ibes, and D. White. 2011a. Gendered perspectives about water risks and policy
strategies: A tripartite conceptual approach. Environment and Behavior 43(3):415-438. DOI:
10.1177/0013916510365253.
Larson, K.L., A. Wutich, D. White, T. Munoz-Erickson, and S. Harlan. 2011b. Multifaceted perspectives on
water risks and policies: A cultural domains approach in a Southwestern city. Human Ecology Review
18(1):75-87.
Middel, A., A.J. Brazel, P. Gober, S.W. Myint, H. Chang, and J. Duh. 2011. Land cover, climate, and the
summer surface energy balance in Phoenix, AZ and Portland, OR. International Journal of Climatology.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2408.
Strong, A., and V.K Smith. 2010. Reconsidering the economics of demand analysis with kinked budget
constraints. Land Economics 86(1):173-190.
Svoma, B.M., and R.C. Balling. 2010. United States’ interannual precipitation variability over the past
century: Is variability increasing as predicted by models? Physical Geography 31(4):307-318.
Svoma, B.M., R.C. Balling, and A.W. Ellis. 2010. Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River
watershed of Central Arizona. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 102(1-2):159-169. DOI:
10.1007/s00704-010-0255-1.

III. Education and Development
K-12 Education
In conjunction with Arizona Project WET, the Water Sustainability Program, and UA’s Water Resources
Research Center, DCDC hosted 25 teachers at the sixth annual Advanced Water Educator Workshop on
June 28–29, 2011. The workshop focused on public perception of water issues covering four main topics:
1) psychological underpinnings of (un)sustainable behaviors; 2) gauging public perception; 3) consumer
responsibility; and 4) cross-cultural perspectives on water quality and equity. Additionally, graduate
fellows associated with the NSF-funded GK-12 Sustainability Science for Sustainable Schools grant
continue to use DCDC research in creating classroom lessons.
Undergraduate Education
The Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars brings students into cross-disciplinary dialogues to
build their skills toward interdisciplinary thinking and communication. We accomplish this goal through
two semesters of a weekly seminar class and activities that build their research skills.
New this year, Katja Brundiers, DCDC Community-University Liaison, Margaret Nelson (Co-PI and Vice
Dean of Barrett, the Honors College at ASU), and Amy Lively, Internship Coordinator from ASU’s School
of Sustainability, have developed and implemented the first “Internship for Science-Practice Integration”
program (ISPI). The ISPI program bridges the University with water-management stakeholders; it places
students in internship projects with a research component. In addition, students participate in a threecredit hour course in which they design and implement their own original, use-inspired research project.
The first year of ISPI program included six partners: Arizona Department of Environmental Quality,
Arizona Cooperative Extension Center, City of Mesa, City of Phoenix, Salt River Project, and The Nature
Conservancy.
Graduate Education
Since the inception of DCDC II, we have supported 10 graduate students from: School of Sustainability (4),
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (2), School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built
Environment (1), School of Human Evolution and Social Change (1), Department of Psychology (1), and
School of Public Affairs (1). During DCDC I, we supported 87 students from a broad reach of disciplines.
We required graduate assistants to participate in the 1-credit hour Community of Graduate Scholars
(CGS). This seminar is designed to bring students into a cross-disciplinary dialogue to build their skills
toward interdisciplinary thinking and communication. This is accomplished through two semesters of a
weekly seminar class where the students create and complete a joint project. One specific goal of the
seminar was to facilitate collaboration with graduate students from the other NSF-funded DMUU
centers. This past year, Margaret Nelson, Co-PI and Vice Dean, Barrett, the Honors College at ASU,
worked with DCDC graduate students to organize the Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU)
poster symposium for the 2011 AAAS Annual Meeting in Washington, DC. The session included
participation from graduate students from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, the
DMUU project at Columbia University.

Postdoctoral Fellowships
Since the launch of DCDC II, we have supported two postdoctoral fellows:
Darren Ruddell received his PhD from the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning and has
been funded jointly by DCDC and the Central Arizona–Phoenix LTER. Ruddell’s research interests focus
on issues of climate and society in the urban environment. Ruddell uses geospatial technologies to
investigate physical and social dimensions of climate and health at multiple scales of analysis (e.g.,
regional, neighborhood, household). Ruddell recently accepted a position as Lecturer with the Spatial
Sciences Institute at the University of Southern California.
Ariane Middel received her PhD from the University of Kaiserslautern, Germany. She collaborated with
the climate group on research aimed at understanding the functional relationships between water data
and land-cover thermal characteristics. This understanding facilitates the targeting of more effective
strategies for mitigating the urban heat island.

IV. Outreach Activities
Water/Climate Briefings
DCDC hosts Water/Climate Briefings on a regular basis. These briefings are a regular forum for the
water-policy community, DCDC researchers, and students to exchange knowledge and ideas. The typical
format is a panel of experts and community partners discussing issues such as the urban heat island,
water re-use, and the energy-water nexus, followed by audience participation and questions. Since the
launch of DCDC, we have hosted four to seven briefings each year, with panelists representing the
scientific and professional perspectives. Briefings in 2010–11 included:
October 6, 2010: Public Awareness and Knowledge Regarding Water Issues. Panelists: Donna Di Francesco,
Conservation Specialist, Environmental & Sustainability, Water – Use it Wisely Program, City of Mesa;
Shaun McKinnon, Journalist, The Arizona Republic; Amber Wutich, Assistant Professor, ASU’s School of
Human Evolution and Social Change; Bethany Cutts, Postdoc, Environmental Science & Policy, UC Davis
(facilitator). This panel provided an overview on outreach and educational activities that contribute to
demand-side management.
December 1, 2010: Covering Your Bets: Water Management in an Age of Uncertainty. This Universitywide keynote lecture was delivered by Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water
Authority, to an audience of 200. Following this public speech was a high-level, invitation-only workshop
with DCDC scientists and water-management partners. Workshop participants shared best-management
practices and identified solutions-focused research needs.
February 2, 2011: Water/Energy Nexus: Innovative Industry Collaborations. Panelists: Karen Collins,
Water Sustainability Analyst, Water Business Development, Salt River Project; Henry Day, Environmental
Department Leader at Arizona Public Service - Palo Verde; Mike Pasqualetti, Professor, ASU’s School of
Geographic Sciences and Urban Planning; and Ray Quay, Research Professional, DCDC (facilitator). The
panelists discussed increasing water and energy efficiency, creating savings, and enhancing
environmental protection, and balancing competing future needs.
February 9, 2011: Groundwater as a Strategic Resource: Managing Overdraft or Planned Depletion? This
presentation featured Christopher Scott, School of Geography and Regional Development and Udall
Center for Studies in Public Policy at UA. He examined three interlinked drivers of aquifer depletion: 1)
climate change and variability that influence groundwater recharge and water demand; 2) electrical
energy supply for pumping; and 3) growing populations’ need to secure water supplies of adequate
quantity and quality.
March 23, 2011: Synergies of Water Planning in Urban and Rural Ecosystems. Panelists: Aaron Citron,
Project Manager, AZ Land and Water Trust; Dan Childers, Professor, School of Sustainability, Director
Central Arizona–Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research; Dave White, Associate Professor, School of
Community Resources and Development, Associate Director, DCDC; and Robert Marshall, Director,
Center for Science & Public Policy, The Nature Conservancy (facilitator). Panelists discussed integrated
approaches for water-management strategies that conceptualize “water supply for urban and rural
ecosystems.”
April 6, 2011: American Indian Water Rights Settlements in Arizona: Lessons for Resolving Water Conflicts.
Panelists: Thomas Buschatzke, Water Resources Management Advisor, City of Phoenix; David Roberts,

Manager, Water Resource Management, Salt River Project; and Daniel Killoren and Paul Hirt, ASU’s
School of Historical, Philosophical, and Religious Studies, ASU (facilitators). The panelists shared firsthand experiences from their involvement in the settlement process and discussed the implications for
future water planning.
Moving forward, we plan to tie Water/Climate Briefings to themes for the entire academic year and
highlight the current DCDC research portfolio. Each briefing will be tailored for specific audiences and
purposes. An annual Keynote will be delivered by a renowned scientist or policy professional to present
a “grand challenge” for the science-policy community to catalyze deliberation. The Keynote will be
followed up in subsequent Water/Climate Briefings to explore basic science questions and policy
implications of responding to the grand challenge.
Collaborative Science and Policy Workshops
In collaboration with the Arizona Water Institute, UA, and ASU’s Decision Theater, DCDC hosted a series
of workshops in 2009–2010 dealing with climatic uncertainty and climate modeling for scientists and
water stakeholders, “Planning for Climate Change through an Integrative Approach to Water Planning,
Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision Making.” At the conclusion of this workshops series, and
based on interest in maintaining dialogue, we agreed to continue to organize stakeholders and scientists
under the umbrella of the Arizona Climate Change Alliance (ACCA), supported jointly by DCDC at ASU
and CLIMAS at UA.
The inaugural ACCA workshop was held May 12, 2011. The goal was to bring together a wide group of
water-resource managers from across the region to discuss implications of widespread groundwater
pumping events and candidly explore the implications of such events and the future research and
discussion needed to address these implications. Participants focused on questions such as: “How low
would aquifer levels go if everyone was to pump groundwater to the maximum extent allowed during
such a long-term drought event?" and "How long would they remain at these levels after such an
event?"
Future programming will be organized around extreme storms and their impacts of reservoir storage
and floodplain management. The next ACCA workshop is being planned to explore this growing research
area and to develop a strategy acceptable to scientists and stakeholders to produce science products
that meet the needs of the science community, water providers, and floodplain managers.
Water Innovation Consortium
The Water Innovation Consortium is a unique collaboration between ASU (DCDC and Decision Theater),
Tecnológico de Monterrey (CALCA), and FEMSA Foundation to engage scientists and stakeholders in
Monterrey, Mexico. The project develops a model for an Integrated Basin Observatory through surface
and groundwater modeling, stakeholder engagement, and strategic decision support. Partners
conducted a workshop on February 17, 2011 in Monterrey that brought together 25 scientists, stakeholders,
and decision makers for presentations and discussions. A follow-up workshop is planned for later in
2011. In June 2011, Project PIs Dave White and Patricia Gober met with the representatives of FEMSA
Foundation and a meeting is planned for August 2011 with a FEMSA delegation including the corporate
CEO to discuss extensions of the current project.

WaterSim Exhibit at the ASU’s Museum of Anthropology
The director and curator of exhibitions at ASU’s Museum of Anthropology featured a touch-screen
version of WaterSim as part of the exhibit “Choosing a Future with Water: Lessons from the Hohokam”
that was launched in association with the March 2011 Resilience Conference. The exhibit advanced
visitor understanding of long-term climate adaptation (and maladaptation) in Greater Phoenix.
Watering the Sun Corridor Report
Watering the Sun Corridor was intended to raise DCDC’s formal participation in local policy analysis and
discussion. It was produced by DCDC I Co-PI Grady Gammage, Jr. in collaboration with the Morrison
Institute for Public Policy. In addition to DCDC, other funders were the Sonoran Institute, Lincoln
Institute of Land Policy, AMEC Engineering, and the Salt River Project. The report examines the future
growth of Arizona’s urban corridor from Phoenix and Tucson and analyzes current and potential water
resources to support that growth. Official release date is August 15, 2011.
Annual COURS Poster Symposium
May 4, 2011: The COURS Annual Poster Symposium is a programmatic highlight of each spring semester.
Twenty-nine students presented the results of their research projects conducted as part of the
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars, the Internship for Science-Practice Integration, and
the Community of Graduate Scholars.

V. Contributions
Contributions within the Discipline
Geographical Sciences
A recently published report from the National Research Council (Understanding the Changing Planet:
Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences) noted that a major theme in the geographical
sciences is “how to understand and respond to environmental change and the human role in these
changes.” DCDC’s research, student training, and outreach are at the forefront of this theme, as DCDC:
1) links traditional water science practiced by climatologists and hydrologists with social scientists
concerned with human activities and behaviors, (2) focuses on urban climate adaptation which is, by
definition, a response to environmental change, (3) introduces DMUU approaches to the field of
geography, and (4) demonstrates the value of participatory processes for environmental decision
making and as a research topic. DCDC publications are cited in the report as examples of the way urban
land use/cover affect human outcomes (Guhathakurta and Gober 2007) and the value of science-policy
engagement (Gober et al. 2010; White et al. 2008).
Systems Dynamics Modeling
WaterSim is a hierarchical model that represents supply from surface and groundwater sources and
demand from residential, commercial, and agricultural user sectors, incorporating the rules that govern
reservoirs, aquifer use, and land-use change. The development of WaterSim is described in recent
articles by Gober et al. (2011) in Environment and Planning B and by Sampson et al. (2011) in Journal of
Environmental Management. The current version of the model, WaterSim 4.0, is comprised of: 1) a
Microsoft C# interface; 2) a C# library module; and 3) a simulation model (FORTRAN) that houses the
rules and algorithms to model water supply and demand, all at the water provider-level. WaterSim 4.0
runs on an annual time-step, but monthly estimates can be generated for many of the output variables.
WaterSim 4.0 produces water supply and use patterns for 33 Phoenix metro-area water providers.
WaterSim 4.0 is a spatially explicit model that allows researchers to examine water sustainability and
urban climate adaptation between communities and across multiple geographic scales by assessing
exposure to risk, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The model also serves as a type of boundary object
(White et al. 2010) to link science and policy communities.
Science-Policy Interactions and Boundary Organizations Research
In recent years, DCDC researchers have made significant contributions to the conceptual understanding
of the linkages between science and policy through empirical-studies boundary work (Wutich et al.
2010), boundary organizations (White et al. 2008), and boundary objects (White et al. 2010). Recent
efforts have enhanced boundary-organization theory by linking it with it concepts from the participatory
geographic information systems framework (Cutts et al. 2011, at Environmental Science and Policy).
Dave White presented a paper to the 17th International Symposium on Society and Resource Management
summarizing the state of knowledge and outlining an agenda to enhance theoretical sophistication and
methodological rigor of science-policy research.
Environmental Economics
Led by economist Kerry Smith, DCDC has advanced basic understanding of environmental economics,
developing unique methods to extract the first “pure” price-schedule assessment to better understand

residential water demand. This research is made possible through cooperative data-sharing agreements
with municipal water departments, illustrating our approach to use-inspired research that not only
advances basic social science but contributes to policy solutions for pressing sustainability challenges. In
2010, Smith was named Regents’ Professor, the highest faculty honor awarded at ASU, conferred on
faculty members who have made pioneering contributions in their areas of expertise, achieved a
sustained distinction in their field, and enjoy national and international recognition for their accomplishments.
References
Cutts, B.B., D.D. White, and A.P. Kinzig. 2011. Participatory geographic information systems for the coproduction of science and policy in an emerging boundary organization. Environmental Science and
Policy. DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.012.
Gober, P., C.W. Kirkwood, R.C. Balling, A.W. Ellis, and S. Deitrick. 2010. Water planning under climatic
uncertainty in Phoenix: Why we need a new paradigm. Annals of the Association of American
Geographers 100(2):356-372.
Gober, P., E.A. Wentz, T. Lant, M.K. Tschudi, and C.W. Kirkwood. 2011. WaterSim: A simulation model
for urban water planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Environment and Planning B 38(2):197-215. DOI:
10.1068/b36075.
Guhathakurta, S., and P. Gober. 2007. The impact of the Phoenix urban heat island on residential water
use. Journal of the American Planning Association 73(3):317-329.
Sampson, D.A., V. Escobar, M.K. Tschudi, T. Lant, and P. Gober. 2011. A provider-based water planning
and management model—WaterSim 4.0—for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. Journal of Environmental
Management 92(10):2596-2610. DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.05.032.
White, D.D., E.A. Corley, and M.S. White. 2008. Water managers' perceptions of the science-policy
interface in Phoenix, Arizona USA: Implications for an emerging boundary organization. Society and
Natural Resources 21(3):230-243.
White, D. D., A. Y. Wutich, K. L. Larson, P. Gober, T. Lant, and C. Senneville. 2010. Credibility, salience,
and legitimacy of boundary objects: water managers’ assessment of a simulation model in an immersive
decision theater. Science & Public Policy 37(3):219-232.
Wutich, A., T. Lant, D. White, K. L. Larson, and M. Gartin. 2010. Comparing focus group and individual
responses on sensitive topics: A study of water decision-makers in a desert city. Field Methods 22(1):88110.
Contributions to Other Disciplines
As an interdisciplinary project, DCDC II links decision analysis, economics, psychology, geography and
planning, anthropology, ecology, hydrology, and engineering. Although specific research projects often
focus on disciplinary questions, the overarching approach is to foster an interdisciplinary dialogue among
social and environmental scientists to catalyze innovative scientific approaches. WaterSim serves as one
point of articulation where researchers unite disciplinary knowledge from geography, hydrology, climatology,

decision analysis, and policy analysis to address inherently interdisciplinary questions about water-resource
sustainability and urban-climate adaptation.
In another example of interdisciplinary contributions, DCDC researchers, led by sustainability scientist
Arnim Wiek, are using participatory and integrated methods that combine WaterSim modeling with
scenario analysis/construction, visioning techniques, and sustainability assessment. These methods
integrate novel concepts of anticipatory governance with sustainability research and problem-solving to
create distinct scenarios of water futures in central Arizona. This work provides DCDC researchers with
distinct scenarios for subsequent analysis and another point of contact for scientists and policy makers.
Contributions to Human Resource Development
DCDC provides a powerful framework for training and professional development for faculty, postdocs, K12 teachers, graduate and undergraduate students, and Center staff. Promising early-career faculty,
nationally-renowned senior faculty, postdocs, and students work in teams to the benefit of all. DCDC
graduate students are responsible each year for organizing a panel for one of the DCDC Water/Climate
Briefings, providing students the opportunity to work with both faculty scientists and stakeholders to
delve into the basic science and applied solutions for water sustainability and urban-climate adaptation.
Each year about 25 K-12 teachers attend the annual Advanced Water Educator Workshops, which
empowers teachers with the most-current scientific understanding to inform their curriculum. The DCDC
Internship for Science Practice-Integration places undergraduate students within partnering agencies to
carry out internship projects with a research component. This experience allows students to build their
professional skills and cultivate professional networks.

Contributions to Resources for Research and Education
Situated within a large public research institution, DCDC is able to leverage research and outreach
programs for educational benefit. Faculty members have expanded their courses to include
consideration of decision making under uncertainty for water sustainability and urban climate
adaptation and, in some cases, developed new courses to highlight DCDC topics. For instance, DCDCinspired courses in ASU’s School of Geographic Sciences and Urban Planning include “Water Resource
Geography and Policy” by Kelli Larson and “Geography of Phoenix” by Pat Gober. In ASU’s School of
Sustainability, Pat Gober and Rimjhim Aggarwal taught “Water Sustainability,” and Aggarwal and Hallie
Eakin co-taught “Adaptation, Resilience and Transformation.”
Contributions Beyond Science and Engineering
The mission of DCDC has always included a significant degree of stakeholder involvement and active
participation from the local community. We have hosted dozens of Water/Climate Briefings; organized
and facilitated workshops dealing with climate change, water conservation, and the urban heat island;
and participated in myriad public events ranging from real-estate forums to informal salons and public
gatherings. DCDC has become the most influential forum for public discussion of water problems in
central Arizona; it is the place where science meets policy in search of sustainable solutions to the
problems of climate change.

VI. Partner Organizations
Arizona Department of Environmental Quality: A collaborative internship program between DCDC and
the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) provided Max Krzyzewski, School of
Sustainability undergraduate student, an opportunity to identify inconsistencies and vacancies in ADEQ's
data reporting process regarding reclaimed water use in AZ.
Arizona Department of Water Resources: ADWR has continued to provide data to support DCDC
research projects and meet with DCDC staff as needed. ADWR representatives collaborate on modeling
output (MODFLOW), which is being integrated with WaterSim. Tom Buschatzke, Assistant Director of
the Water Management Divisionat ADWR serves on DCDC’s External Advisory Committee.
Bureau of Reclamation: BOR representatives have been active members in the collaborative workshop
series in 2009–2010 dealing with climatic uncertainty and climate modeling for scientists and water
stakeholders and will continue to participate in the newly formed Arizona Climate Change Alliance
(ACCA).
City of Mesa: A collaborative internship program between DCDC and the City of Mesa, Arizona included
two School of Sustainability undergraduate students, Emily Allen and Joshua Randall, who focused on:
(1) geographical information systems analysis of the East Salt River sub-basin regarding opportunities for
recharge that provided detailed mapping opportunities, (2) detailed literary review and summary of the
various hydrological and scientific reports within and around the East Salt River sub-basin and (3)
collaborative process and opportunities between stakeholders within the East Salt River sub-basin and
utilizing the possibility of using the East Valley Water Forum as a potential tool for collaboration.
Kathryn Sorensen, City of Mesa, serves on DCDC’s External Advisory Committee.
City of Phoenix: DCDC collaborates closely with the City of Phoenix's Water Services Department, sharing
the results of different but complementary water modeling efforts. In addition, the City has provided an
immensely useful data set that includes municipal water use by different types of users across census
tracts between 1990 and 2009. City representatives have given presentations and served as panelists at
the DCDC Water/Climate Briefings. In addition, a collaborative internship program between DCDC and
the City of Phoenix provided Courtney Lewis, School of Sustainability undergraduate, an opportunity to
analyze supply and demand of the Seven Basin States and identifying similarities and differences of
methodologies and recommendations.
City of Tempe: The City of Tempe supplies household water use data for DCDC analysis.
East Valley Partnership: The Superstition Vistas Area Project, administered by the East Valley
Partnership, is one of the largest expanses of property in the U.S. The land is owned by a single owner,
the Arizona Land Trust, and covers 275 square miles of undeveloped land on the eastern edge of the
metropolitan Phoenix area. This collaboration will produce scenarios of water, energy, transportation,
and economic development policy choices for the development of the Superstition Vistas.
East Valley Water Forum: EVWF consists of tribal, public, and private water agencies in the East Salt
River Valley. They are sharing their groundwater-modeling output with the Decision Science team so it
can be integrated with agent-based models to produce visualization for Decision Theater (DT).

Global Water: Global Water owns and operates private water and waste water utilities in the greater
Phoenix area and presently serves approximately 40,000 connections. Global Water will collaborate with
DCDC on research and education, and outreach activities by providing and sharing data on water and
other resources; offering student internships; providing staff time; and sharing best practices and
decision making tools that advance from these activities. Graham Symmonds of Global Water will serve
on DCDC’s External Advisory Committee.
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy: DCDC partnered with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Sonoran
Institute in supporting the publication of Watering the Sun Corridor, a Morrison Institute of Public Policy
report to assess water security in the Sun Corridor of Central Arizona.
Maricopa Association of Governments: MAG is composed of the 25 incorporated cities and towns in
Maricopa County and the contiguous urbanized area, three Indian communities, Maricopa County, and
the Arizona Department of Transportation. MAG collaborates with DCDC research, education, and
outreach activities by providing and sharing data.
Maricopa County Flood Control District: MCFCD representatives participate in scientist and stakeholder
activities and attend DCDC Water/Climate Briefings. The MCFCD also provides data for DCDC research.
Salt River Project: SRP delivers nearly 1 million acre-feet of water to a service area in central Arizona and
operates an extensive water-delivery system that includes reservoirs, wells, canals, and irrigation
laterals. SRP has provided a wide range of information to DCDC scientists, including hydrological data,
public attitude surveys that reveal household perception of drought and responsiveness to conservation
messages, reports of water duties (usage rates) associated with different land uses, water delivery data,
and irrigation coverages. SRP climatologists and water managers are among the most regular
participants at the DCDC Climate/Water Briefings and SRP representatives gave presentations and
sparked discussion at two monthly Water/Climate Briefings. In addition, a collaborative internship
program between DCDC and SRP provided Alexandria Detrio, School of Sustainability undergraduate, an
opportunity to identify potential future impacts of the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment
District for SRP and selected customer groups.
The Nature Conservancy: A collaborative internship program between DCDC and The Nature
Conservancy provided Cherish Connolly, School of Sustainability undergraduate, an opportunity to
identify best practices of communities, which reduced contaminants in reused water that is being
discharged into rivers.
University of Arizona (CLIMAS, SAHRA, WRRC): DCDC collaborates with three University of Arizona
research centers dedicated partly or wholly to water and climate research. DCDC partners with Climate
Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), part of U of A's Institute of the Environment. Their mission to
improve the region's ability to respond to climatic events and climate change complements DCDC's goal
of managing the uncertainty associated with drought, climate variability, and global climate change.
DCDC will partner with CLIMAS in the newly formed Arizona Climate Change Alliance (ACCA). DCDC
works with the U of A's Sustainability of Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA), whose
experience with a broad spectrum of stakeholders (both public agencies and private organizations) helps
enhance the relevancy of the project to decision makers. Researchers from the Arizona Water Resources
Research Center (WRRC) participate in investigating public perception of drought and water
management.

University of Arizona (The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, Maricopa County): A
collaborative internship program between DCDC and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension in
Maricopa County, provided Jeffrey Jennings, School of Sustainability undergraduate, an opportunity to
work with high school students to identify implementation of efficient water management practices and
working at water festivals to convey key information on water in Arizona.
Unversity of Arizona (Arizona Project Wet): Project Wet participates in the annual DCDC Advanced Water
Education Workshops. This successful workshop has been repeated each summer and is always filled to
capacity. The sixth Advanced Water Educator’s Workshop, with the theme of Water and Public
Perception, was held in June 2011.
Other Collaborators
American Indian Policy Center (ASU): Representatives were participants in the collaborative workshop
series in 2009–2010 dealing with climatic uncertainty and climate modeling for scientists and water
stakeholders and attended DCDC Water Climate Briefings.
Arizona Town Hall: DCDC and Arizona Town Hall collaborated on the 91st Arizona Town Hall, "Land Use
Challenges and Choices for the 21st Century." Arizona Town Hall is a private, nonprofit civic organization
created in 1962 to increase citizens’ understanding of the many facets of the state's economic, cultural
and social life. Twice each year, the Arizona Town Hall brings together a wide cross-section of
approximately 150 prominent Arizona citizens to consider and discuss a topic of major concern to
Arizona's future. Participants at the 91st Town Hall reached consensus that current systems of planning
and land-use regulation are inadequate to address Arizona's rapid growth. Collaborative planning among
all levels of government--local, regional, state, tribal and federal--is crucial, particularly in managing
infrastructure, transportation, education, environmental concerns, energy, and natural and water
resources. The background report and consensus statements are available at
http://www.aztownhall.org/reports/91.asp.
Arizona Water Institute: Arizona's three state universities - Arizona State University, Northern Arizona
University, and The University of Arizona formed a partnership to position the state as a world leader in
water resources management and technology. The primary driver for this initiative was sustaining
Arizona's water supply, which is crucial to the state's economy, the health and well-being of its
residents, and its natural environment. The Arizona Water Institute (AWI) combined the expertise of
Arizona's water managers with the resources of the three universities to support water resources
management and technology development in real-world applications. In collaboration with the Arizona
Water Institute, UA, and ASU’s Decision Theater, DCDC hosted a series of workshops in 2009–2010
dealing with climatic uncertainty and climate modeling for scientists and water stakeholders. Funding
for the Arizona Water Institute was eliminated by the Arizona Legislature and the institute closed in
2009.
ASU President’s Office: DCDC and other university constituents, under the guidance of the Office of the
University President, partner with the Arizona Republic to create the Metropolitan Phoenix Indicators
Project, a set of data presented in an impartial manner to illuminate the current state of the economic,
social and cultural life of our region. DCDC is in the sixth year of collaboration on this project, renamed
Arizona Indicators, which is now administered by ASU’s Morrison Institute of Public Policy. (See:
http://www.arizonaindicators.org).

Center for Science, Policy and Outcomes (ASU): DCDC collaborates with ASU's Center for Science, Policy
and Outcomes (CSPO), an internationally known organization involved in studying the linkages between
science and technology and society.
Central Arizona Project Long Term Ecological Project (CAP LTER): DCDC and CAP LTER work together on
the Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS), an ongoing interdisciplinary project examining community
formation, growth, and interaction with the natural environment. Closer collaboration between DCDC
and CAP LTER, ASU's two large urban environmental research programs, offers the opportunity for
integration of DCDC's inherently social science approach to urban modeling with CAP LTER's more
ecological approach.
Decision Theater (ASU): Founded simultaneously with DCDC, the Decision Theater (DT) at Arizona State
University is a learning and decision space in which the latest understanding of complex social,
economic, and natural processes and their interactions are visualized. DCDC works closely with DT to
translate DCDC science and modeling into visualizations applicable for the general public and decision
makers. DCDC's WaterSim is presented in the Decision Theater, and DT was used as the setting for a
project to evaluate WaterSim as a decision support tool.
Global Institute of Sustainability (ASU): DCDC is administered by and closely collaborates with ASU's
Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS). GIOS serves as the bridge to other relevant NSF-sponsored
projects, especially the Central Arizona Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) project, the
Urban Ecology Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program, the cross-site
Biocomplexity in the Environment project on Agrarian Landscapes in Transition, and the Sustainability
Partnership Enterprise. As GIOS expands, international researchers are being asked to participate in its
programs, including DCDC.
Morrison Institute for Public Policy (ASU): The Metropolitan Phoenix Indicators Project evolved into the
Arizona Indicators, now administered by the Morrison Institute. DCDC continues to contribute data to
this project. In addition, Grady Gammage, Jr., a Morrison Institute Senior Research Fellow, recently
completed Watering the Sun Corridor, a report that was co-sponsored by DCDC and included
contributions from DCDC researchers.
Sustainable Cities Network (ASU): Sustainable Cities Network (SCN) is a regional organization whose
community members work together to discuss, solve and overcome everyday sustainability challenges
facing cities and the overall region. In partnership with DCDC, SCN will have the opportunity to offer
valuable municipal staff feedback, access to local resources and research opportunities, and a
centralized meeting forum via workshops and network meetings to reach community sustainability
practitioners with important DCDC findings. At the same time, SCN and its members will benefit from
this collaboration by having access to real-time research and scientific knowledge on water and resource
related topics that will aid municipalities in making more informed water and sustainability decisions.
University of California, Irvine; Paul Merage School of Business: Decision research at DCDC includes a
partnership between L. Robin Keller (University of California, Irvine, Paul Merage School of Business) and
ASU faculty. The multi-objective decision analysis work performed in Year 1 of DCDC I was the
foundation for developing decision-focused evaluation metrics for use with the models that have been
developed within DCDC.

VII. DCDC Participants
Principal Investigators/Project Directors
Patricia Gober, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Charles L. Redman, School of Sustainability
Co-Principal Investigators
Craig Kirkwood, W.P Carey School of Business, Supply Chain Management
Margaret Nelson, Barrett, The Honors College
Dave White, School of Community Resources and Development
External Advisory Committee
Michael Lacey, Arizona Department of Water Resources
Susan Cutter, University of South Carolina,
Lisa Dilling, University of Colorado-Boulder
William Easterling, The Pennsylvania State University
Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ed Miles, University of Washington
Kathryn Sorensen, City of Mesa
Graham Symmonds, Global Water
Senior Personnel: Manager
Bill Edwards, Executive Administrator
Liz Marquez, Program Manager
Senior Personnel: Core Scientists
Luc Anselin, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Robert Balling, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
George Basile, School of Sustainability/Decision Theater
Anthony Brazel, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Hallie Eakin, School of Sustainability
Andrew Ellis, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Monica Elser, Global Institute of Sustainability
Grady Gammage, Jr., Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Subhrajit Guhathakurta, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Douglas Kenrick, Department of Psychology
Tim Lant, Decision Theater
Kelli Larson, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning/School of Sustainability
Susan Ledlow, School of Sustainability
Alan Murray, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Steven Neuberg, Department of Psychology
Colin Polsky, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
Ray Quay, Decision Center for a Desert City
Kerry Smith, W.P Carey School of Business; Economics
Billie Lee Turner II, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Elizabeth Wentz, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Paul Westerhoff, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment
Arnim Wiek, School of Sustainability

Amber Wutich, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Abigail York, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Postdoctoral Research Associates
Ariane Middel, Computer Science, University of Kaiserslautern, Germany
Darren Ruddell, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (ASU)
Other Collaborators
Rimjhim Aggarwal, School of Sustainability
C. Athena Aktipis, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona
Bob Bolin, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
James Buizer, Office of Sustainability Initiatives
Netra Chhetri, Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes
Beatrice Crona, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Lee Cronk, Department of Anthropology, Rutgers University
Michael Crow, President, Arizona State University
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona
Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Global Institute of Sustainability
Sharon Harlan, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Paul Hirt, School of Historical, Philosophical, and Religious Studies
Jim Holway, Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Kathy Jacobs, Office of Science and Technology Policy, The White House
Erik Johnston, School of Public Affairs
L. Robin Keller, University of California, Irvine, The Paul Merage School of Business
Yu-shim Kim, School of Public Affairs
Anne Kinzig, School of Life Sciences
Rob Melnick, Global Institute of Sustainability
Soe Myint, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Robert Pahle, Decision Theater
John Parker, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), UCSB
Anne Reichman, Sustainable Cities Network
Sergio Rey, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Ed Sadalla, Department of Psychology
Daniel Sarewitz, Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes
Kerry Schwartz, Arizona Project WET, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona
Nancy Selover, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Ajay Vinze, W.P Carey School of Business, Information Systems
Enrique Vivoni, School of Earth and Space Exploration
Research Technical Personnel
Alex Garcia, UTO
Dustin Hampton, Decision Theater
Ryan Raub, Global Institute of Sustainability
David Sampson, Decision Center for a Desert City
Philip Tarrant, Global Institute of Sustainability
Barbara Trapido-Lurie, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Mary Whelan, Informatics and Cyberinfrastructure Services, ASU Libraries

Public Outreach Personnel
Katja Brundiers, Decision Center for a Desert City, School of Sustainability
Research Support Personnel
Nikol Grant, Global Institute of Sustainability
Amanda Jung, Global Institute of Sustainability
Julia Koschinsky, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Lauren Kuby, Global Institute of Sustainability
Kathy Kyle, Global Institute of Sustainability
Margaret Levit, Global Institute of Sustainability
Estella O'Hanlon, Decision Center for a Desert City
Susan Siddall, Global Institute of Sustainability
Sally Wittlinger, Decision Center for a Desert City
Graduate Research Associate
Omaya Ahmad, School of Sustainability
Julia Bausch, School of Sustainability
Geetali Dudhbhate, School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering
Stephane Frijia, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Gretchen Hawkins, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment
Won Kyung Kim, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Christy Mercer, School of Sustainability
Rebecca Neel, Department of Psychology
Andrea Torvinen, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Lauren Withycombe, School of Sustainability
Other Graduate Students
Jessie Snook, W. P. Carey School of Business, Economics
Rashmi Krishnamurthy, School of Public Affairs
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS)
Danielle Shaffer, School of Sustainability
James Taysom, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Courtney Snyder, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Claire Yee, Department of Psychology
Other Undergraduate Students
Annissa Olsen, School of Music
Organizational Partners and Other Collaborators
American Indian Policy Center (ASU)
Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Arizona Town Hall
Arizona Water Institute
ASU President’s Office
Bureau of Reclamation
Center for Science, Policy and Outcomes (ASU)

Central Arizona–Phoenix Long Term Ecological Project [CAP LTER] (ASU)
City of Mesa
City of Phoenix
City of Tempe
Decision Theater (ASU)
East Valley Partnership
East Valley Water Forum
Global Institute of Sustainability (ASU)
Global Water
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Maricopa Association of Governments
Maricopa County Flood Control District
Morrison Institute for Public Policy (ASU)
Salt River Project
Sustainable Cities Network (ASU)
The Nature Conservancy
University of Arizona, CLIMAS, SAHRA, WRRC
University of Arizona, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, Maricopa County
University of Arizona, Arizona Project Wet
University of California, Irvine, The Paul Merage School of Business