DCDC 2007-2008
Annual Progress Report
Decision Center for a Desert City
SES-0345945

Compiled by
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman
Bill Edwards
Nancy Jones
Michelle Rupp
Estella O’Hanlon
Annissa Olsen

Submitted to the
National Science Foundation
Via Fastlane
July 2, 2008

Decision Center for a
Desert City

DCDC 2008
Table of Contents
I. Introduction to DCDC
II. Findings of Research Activities

3
10

Principal Investigators/Directors:
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman

III. Research Findings: Training & Development 14 Executive Committee:
Patricia Gober
Charles Redman
IV. Education and Outreach
17
Robert Balling
Bob Bolin
V. Contributions
24
William Edwards
Monica Elser
VI. Partner Organizations and Participants 27
Grady Gammage
Craig Kirkwood
Margaret Nelson
Kerry Smith
Elizabeth Wentz
Dave White
Staff:
Bill Edwards
Nancy Jones
Michael Tschudi
Nick Gerbis
Estella O’Hanlon
Michelle Rupp
Annissa Olsen
Teams:
Climate Change and Urban Heat Island
Education and Outreach
Science and Policy
Modeling and Evaluation
Vulnerability
Water Demand and Decision Making

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I. Introduction to DCDC
Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) works to improve
the effectiveness of policy analysis and water planning in the face of climate variability
and change. These goals are more urgent now than when we first responded to the
National Science Foundation’s Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) Initiative
in 2003. Climate forecasts (by DCDC and others) warn of potentially dire changes to the
environmental systems that provide water to Phoenix and other cities of the Western
United States, but water managers continue to resist incorporating climate forecasts and
climate change scenarios into agency practices.
DCDC’s original motivation—creating a timely interface between scientific
understanding and human decision-making—remains the basis for our most important
activities. Year 4 research activities included data collection and analysis, article
submission, and the culmination of prior research projects in the form of refereed
journal articles.
Activities:
The climate research team downscaled general circulation models and used
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios to simulate runoff from
upstream watersheds (Ellis et al. 2008). It analyzed drought determinants for the
Colorado River Basin (Balling and Goodrich 2007), and quantified effects of the urban
heat island on residential water use (Guhathakurta and Gober 2007). The team also
estimated the effects of growth and housing construction on the urban heat island
(Brazel et al. 2007), and established that urban water use is less sensitive to climate
variability than previously thought because durable, inflexible irrigation systems
dominate outdoor water use in the region (Balling and Gober 2007).
The critical links among climate, water, and growth continue to be a central focus of
DCDC climate research. Our success in integrating urban water-balance and energybalance models with diverse urban design options, allows us to better understand the
sensitivity of residential water consumption to varying weather and climate conditions.
It is also the basis for a collaborative project with geographers at Portland State
University to integrate land-use planning into water-resource decision making as a
potential adaptation to climate-induced water stress in the Western United States.
Decision-making research investigated decision makers’ views of uncertainty and
scientific information (White et al. 2008; Gober et al. in review) and determinants of
water use at the household level (Wentz and Gober 2007). Ongoing studies include
social-network analysis of scientists and water managers, interviews with waterresource decision makers to assess reactions to our water-simulation model (Wutich et
al. in review), the effect of different uncertainty representations on water decision
making, and psychological studies of tradeoffs made in residential water-consumption
choices.

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Vulnerability studies used a political-economy perspective to investigate how
societal arrangements render some people and places disproportionately vulnerable to
the threat of water shortage. This research is both qualitative and quantitative. Using
qualitative analysis, DCDC scientists described the history of water management in
Arizona and the failure of the water-policy community to respond to the challenges of
rapid growth amidst climatic uncertainty (Hirt et al. in press). Other research included
identifying the institutional forces that have generated water shortage conditions in
Arizona’s Central Highlands (Bolin et al. in press) and analyzing the way that Phoenix’s
cultural and environmental history have impeded climate adaptation strategies (Gober
2007; Gober in press).
Quantitative studies used geographical information systems (GIS) to characterize the
vulnerability of individual water providers based on their supply portfolios and
projected growth conditions (Bolin et al. 2008 presentation at the Association of
American Geographers meeting in Boston; Pompeii 2008 presentation at the American
Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Boston). Pompeii’s poster,
entitled ―Water Privatization and Socially Constructed Scarcities: A Case Study in
Phoenix, Arizona,‖ won honorable mention in the Science and Society category at the
AAAS meeting.
Methodological contributions center on the use of Bayesian Maximum Entropy
(BME) to deal with uncertainty in a variety of water and climate modeling problems. In
collaboration with other DCDC scientists, postdoctoral fellow Seung-Jae Lee produced a
set of BME applications that are described in Climate Research (Brazel et al. 2007),
Water Resources Research (Lee and Wentz 2008), the Annals of the Association of
American Geographers (Lee et al. 2008), and Geographical Analysis (Lee et al. in
review). This work demonstrates that BME can produce highly accurate spatiotemporal
representations of environmental phenomena and is a useful tool for urban planners,
water managers, and policy makers.
WaterSim integrates quantitative models representing water consumption and
availability in Central Arizona under varying scenarios of population growth, climate
change, individual behavior, and policy choices. Using a systems-dynamics framework
built upon the software application PowerSim, WaterSim combines research results into
a single, interactive tool with which users can explore plausible futures and evaluate
strategies for avoiding unacceptable scenarios. WaterSim is shown in ASU’s Decision
Theater and disseminated to the public at http://watersim.asu.edu. The model was the
basis for a front-page story about climate change and water-resource planning in the
August 12, 2007, issue of The Arizona Republic, Arizona’s largest-circulation
newspaper.
WaterSim supports DCDC’s relationships with local decision makers and serves as a
basis for national and international scientific and policy engagement. It is not merely a
static scientific product, but rather a dynamic tool that enables scientists and
policymakers to collaborate—expanding knowledge, creating tools, and improving
visualizations. Social scientists at DCDC gain new insights into developing and applying
models through this co-production process.
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During Year 4, DCDC scientists evaluated WaterSim using sensitivity analyses and
history matching (Gober et al. in review). Work commenced to implement a GIS
interface for WaterSim that will allow users to manipulate model inputs and outputs
spatially. We are also in the process of building a more attractive and intuitive user
interface for presentations in the Decision Theater.

Year 4 Research Projects, listed with primary investigators, include:
Anthony Brazel, P.I. ―Neighborhood Evapotranspiration Variation in the City of
Phoenix: An Hourly, Seasonal, and Annual Evaluation using the Local-Scale Urban
Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS)‖ uses a neighborhood-scale
meteorological model to investigate the relationship between heat storage and water
loss and how it varies with different land-cover conditions. The project is a collaborative
effort with the City of Phoenix Water Services Department. The City is interested in the
―return on investment‖ of using water to reduce nighttime temperatures associated with
the urban-heat-island effect.
Ann Kinzig and Bethany Cutts, co-P.I.s. ―Implications of Spatially Heterogeneous Water
Education and Educator Networks in a Desert City‖ maps the distribution of water
conservation education efforts in metropolitan Phoenix and assesses whether public
knowledge of water conditions differs between high- and low-water use areas.
Andrew Ellis and Robert Balling, Jr., co-P.I.s. ―Past Patterns and Future Implications of
Changes in Runoff/Precipitation Ratios on the Salt and Verde Watersheds‖ will produce
a detailed spatial climatology of the runoff/precipitation ratio for the Salt and Verde
watersheds and determine which portions of the watersheds are most highly associated
with the overall runoff conditions. The research also investigates the role of elevation in
affecting the ratio and the effectiveness of snowfall relative to rainfall in affecting the
ratio a seasonal basis.

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Craig Kirkwood, P.I. ―Multi-objective Decision-analysis Framework for WaterSim‖
works to apply WaterSim to policy decisions. Researchers will use the framework to
develop appropriate inputs for WaterSim and to improve post-processing of its outputs.
The proposed multi-objective framework consists of three elements: (1) metrics or a set
of quantitative measuring scales that provide a summary of decision-relevant WaterSim
outputs, (2) scenarios that reflect fundamental uncertainty about the key variables
affecting water availability, and (3) alternatives that capture policy choices for waterresource management. A central feature of (3) is that some policy alternatives create
options for, or remove options from, future actions.
Amber Wutich, Beatrice Crona, and Paul Westerhoff, co-P.I.s. ―Phoenix
Ethnohydrology‖ is a follow-up study to the DCDC/LTER-funded Phoenix Area Social
Survey II (PASS II), a survey of 40 neighborhoods conducted in Greater Phoenix in the
summer of 2006. Based on respondents’ assessments of water quality in their
neighborhoods in PASS II, the team selected a sub-sample of four neighborhoods for
additional in-depth study, assessing resident’s ecological knowledge and perception of
water quality, comparing perceptions of English- and Spanish-speakers, and correlating
perceptions with the chemical content of drinking water.
L. Robin Keller, Craig W. Kirkwood, and Jay Simon, co-PIs. ―Spatial Decision Research‖
continues previous efforts to develop and extend decision-focused spatial-evaluation
metrics. By decision-focused, we mean that the metrics support decision making and
policy creation that are based upon modeling results. By spatial, we mean that data are
arranged spatially over a geographical region.
Bob Bolin and Kelli Larson, co-PIs. ―Vulnerability to Water Shortage‖ developed a
spatially explicit data set for analyzing place-specific vulnerabilities to water shortage. It
ran a variety of climate-change, water-demand, and population-growth scenarios for
communities in our area, with the ultimate goal of pinpointing where water stress will
be first experienced and the socio-economic characteristics of the affected populations.
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Dave White, P.I. ―Decision Theater Experiments‖ continued interviews with water
managers, probing their perceptions about the legitimacy, credibility, and saliency of
WaterSim. We have now followed our panel through two waves of interviews and can
assess its changing views of DCDC science and our simulation model.
Susan Ledlow and Ed Sadalla, co-PIs. ―Residential Water Consumption Choices‖
identifies the tradeoffs people make between indoor and outdoor water use and across
the range of specific indoor (showering, dishwasher, toilet flushing, etc.) and outdoor
(landscaping, pools, car washing, etc.) uses. The goal is to investigate how choices of
various uses varies with gender, income, and environmental attitudes.
John Sabo, P.I. ―Bridging Perceptions of Local and Regional Water Supply in the
Cadillac Desert.‖ Dr. Sabo, a faculty member in the ASU School of Life Sciences, has
obtained NSF funding to revisit Marc Reisner’s apocalyptic thesis about the fate of
agriculture and civilization in the western United States. DCDC will participate in a
series of workshops dealing with the future of water supply and demand in the region.
DCDC’s interest is in projecting future water-use patterns in major urban areas and in
the agricultural sector. This project facilitates interaction with life scientists and enables
DCDC to upscale its models and research from Phoenix to the Desert Southwest.

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Education Activities:
The Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars continued as a year-long
seminar in which students honed their research skills and discussed the multidisciplinary context for their research endeavors. The seminar culminated with a poster
session held in conjunction with a DCDC Water/Climate Briefing. The seminar included
students from the Central Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Project (CAP LTER)
and the Urban Ecology Integrated Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT)
project. DCDC students produced the following posters:



Eva M. Wingren, Barrett Honors College. ―Performance and Perception at a
Science and Policy Boundary‖
John Wallace, School of Human Evolution and Social Change. ―Pre-historic Land
Use Across Perry Mesa, Central AZ‖

The DCDC Community of Graduate Scholars continued as a required, year-long
interdisciplinary seminar for all funded graduate students. Students developed a DCDC
presentation that four of them presented, each to one of the other DMUU Centers. They
also organized a DCDC-wide discussion series during the spring semester. Each of the
three discussions attracted between 40 and 50 participants.
Panel 1: WaterSim: Facilitating Decision Making through Simulation Models (January
23, 2008)
 Tim Lant, DCDC and Decision Theater
 Kathy Jacobs, Arizona Water Institute and University of Arizona
 Clark Miller, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes and
Department of Political Science
Panel 2: Vulnerability to Water Scarcity (February 20, 2008)
 Bob Bolin, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
 Ann Kinzig, School of Life Sciences
 Dave White, School of Community Resources and Development
Panel 3: Water Policy: Are the Current Policies Adequate? (March 19, 2008)
 Judith Dworkin, Attorney-at-Law, Sacks Tierney
 Paul Hirt, Department of History
 Jim Holway, School of Sustainability
Monica Elser, DCDC education team co-leader, worked with two community college
instructors and two high school Advanced Placement Human Geography teachers to
develop lessons for geography courses using WaterSim. The team is readying the
lessons for placement on the DCDC website. Both community college instructors will
present professional papers about the project in Fall 2008 at regional geography
conferences. The education team also developed a Webquest for the Southwest Water
Information Project Atlas and presented it at a teacher workshop in Spring 2008. The
team tested classroom lessons about the urban heat island in Spring 2008 in a seventhgrade, after-school science program.
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The education team conducted a Project Wet/DCDC Advanced Water Education
Workshop on July 31 and August 1, 2007, attracting with 28 participants. The
workshop, focusing on climate change and decision-making, was a collaborative effort
with partners from the University of Arizona and the Maricopa County Extension
Service. A similar program is planned for July 8 and 9, 2008 and will focus on water
reuse and conservation.

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II. Findings of Research Activities
The Impact of Urban Heat Island on Residential Water Use in Phoenix
Subhrajit Guhathakurta, Shawn Gaver, and Patricia Gober
Land-use and land-cover changes associated with rapid urbanization in the desert have
raised summer nighttime temperatures in Phoenix by up to 12° F in the past 50 years. A
team of interdisciplinary scientists at DCDC examined residential water records and
found a relationship between rising temperatures and increased water demand. If the
average nighttime temperature of 70° F were to increase by 1º, the typical household
(presently using 16,000 gallons per month) would increase its monthly water use by 448
gallons. This work confirms the effect of environmental conditions on householddecision making and suggests that climate change poses an additional challenge for this
arid region because it will increase water use. In addition, the research raises questions
about smart-growth strategies that promote higher urban densities and compact cities,
which may lead to an increasing heat-island effect and associated impacts on air quality
and water use. It is imperative that plans for smart growth include strategies for
mitigating heat-island effects, in order to achieve optimum environmental benefits.
Mean Nighttime Temperatures in
June 8, 1998 at 5:00AM

Mean Water Consumption by SingleFamily Units in June 1998

Derived from data provided by:
Joseph Zehnder and Susanne Grossman-Clark

everything2
everything2.MEAN_JUN_C
< -2.500000 Std. Dev.
-2.500000 - -1.500000 Std. Dev.
-1.500000 - -0.500000 Std. Dev.
-0.500000 - 0.500000 Std. Dev.
0.500000 - 1.500000 Std. Dev.
1.500000 - 2.500000 Std. Dev.
> 2.500000 Std. Dev.

everything2
MEAN_GRI_1
< -2.500000 Std. Dev.
-2.500000 - -1.500000 Std. Dev.
-1.500000 - -0.500000 Std. Dev.
-0.500000 - 0.500000 Std. Dev.
0.500000 - 1.404642 Std. Dev.

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Factors Influencing Residential Water Consumption for the City of Phoenix
Elizabeth Wentz and Patricia Gober
DCDC scientists studied how residential water demand in Phoenix varied from one
location to another. They found that four factors influence the demand for water:
household size, which reflects use for laundry, bathing, dish washing, and toilet
flushing; the presence of an outdoor swimming pool; average lot size; and landscaping
type (turf versus desert plants). Results can be used to estimate the effects of policies
that limit pool construction, mandate smaller lot sizes, and provide incentives for
residents to shift from water-hungry lawns to native desert plants for their outdoor
landscaping. Understanding policy outcomes associated with new construction is
particularly important in a rapidly urbanizing region where the current population of 3.7
million is expected to double in the next 40 years.

A Hydroclimatic Indexing Concept for Monitoring Drought
Andrew Ellis, Gregg Garfin, and Robert Balling, Jr.
Standard drought indicators developed in the eastern and midwestern United States
may not be applicable to western climate and water conditions. DCDC scientists
partnered with scientists at the University of Arizona to develop a more appropriate
drought index for the Colorado River Basin. They compared the resulting Hydroclimatic
Index to more commonly known indices such as the Palmer Drought-Severity Index
(PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and found that the
Hydroclimatic Index responded more quickly to short-term hydroclimatic changes than
the PDSI and improved upon the capabilities of the SPI. This research is important
because the Colorado River Basin is the source for about 30% of the Phoenix
metropolitan area’s water supply.

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60
40
20

P-PE (mm)

0

Apr

Oct
Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar

-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120

Arizona Climate Division 4
Monthly Mean P-PE
1895-2004

-140

Mean monthly P (precipitation)-PE (potential evapotranspiration) values for Climate
Division 4 in Arizona. On average, P-PE values are positive only during the period
November through March, and it is likely that much of the surplus moisture in
November recharges the soil following the summer season.
Spatial Expansion of Phoenix=s Urban Heat Island
Anthony Brazel, Brent Hedquist, Joseph Zehnder, and Patricia Gober
Rapid urbanization has warmed summer nighttime temperatures in Greater Phoenix,
adversely affecting human comfort and health, energy and water consumption, and the
region=s potential as a year-round tourist destination. Using a dense network of
weather stations and detailed maps of new home construction, DCDC scientists
discovered different regimes of local-area climate change between 1990 and 2004. The
core of the city was hot at the start of the period, and remained hot throughout, while
sites outside the urban center were cool and remained cool. The most dramatic changes
in June nighttime lows occurred at the expanding urban fringe where previously cool,
irrigated farmland was converted to new home developments; there were less dramatic
changes in land where urban infill occurred. Results of the study will help potential
home-buyers to gauge the effects of new land development on atmospheric conditions in
their neighborhoods and enable policymakers to better understand the impacts of
potential growth strategies.

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1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

These maps show the spatial distribution of average June nighttime low temperatures in
the Greater Phoenix region. Points represent climate stations in the region.

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III. Research Findings: Training & Development
Undergraduate Education: In Year 4, Decision Center for a Desert City funded two
undergraduate students to participate in the Community of Undergraduate Research
Scholars (COURS) program. COURS is an interdisciplinary program, co-sponsored by
the Barrett Honors College and the Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS), and
supervised by Barrett Honors College Associate Dean, Margaret C. Nelson. COURS
integrates undergraduate students into ongoing research projects, provides an
interdisciplinary environment that enhances cross-disciplinary communication and
appreciation for the broader impacts of scientific work, and produces concrete research
products.
All COURS students prepared research posters for presentation at a capstone event on
April 30, 2008, featuring an outside speaker and widespread participation from DCDC
faculty and community partners, and Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological
Research (CAP LTER) and IGERT faculty.
DCDC student COURS poster presentations were ―Peer Influence on Student Water
Values,‖ by Allyn Knox and ―Performance and Perception at a Science and Policy
Boundary,‖ by Eva M. Wingren.

Graduate Education: To date, 32 graduate students from the Schools of Life Sciences,
Social and Family Dynamics, Human Evolution and Social Change, Sustainability,
Geographical Sciences, Earth and Space Exploration; the Departments of History,
Geology, Environmental Design/Planning, Political Science, Computer Science and
Engineering, Psychology, and Communications; and the Consortium for Science, Policy
and Outcomes have participated in DCDC projects. We require research assistants to
participate in a one-credit graduate seminar, Community of Graduate Scholars, to
facilitate collaboration among graduate students working on DCDC projects.
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The Community of Graduate Scholars integrates graduate students into ongoing DCDC
research projects, provides an interdisciplinary environment that enhances crossdisciplinary communication and appreciation for the broader impacts of scientific work,
and produces concrete research products. Twelve DCDC graduate students participated
in the CAP LTER 2008 poster symposium in January in Tempe. Their presentations
were:
 ―An Ethnohydrologic Evaluation of Water Quality in Phoenix, AZ,‖ Stacey
Avent*, Amber Wutich, Beatrice Crona, Pat Gober, Mohan Seetharam, and Paul
Westerhoff
 ―Sensitivity of Residential Water Consumption to Variations in Weather and
Climate: An Intra-Urban Analysis of Phoenix, Arizona,‖ Robert Balling, Pat
Gober, and Nancy Jones
 ―Is it Who You Know or What You Know? A First Examination of Water
Information Distribution Across Organizational Networks,‖ Bethany Cutts*,
Allyn Knox*, and Nickolas Moore*
 ―Estimates of Outdoor Water Use in Phoenix Using LUMPS,‖ Jillian Elder*,
Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Anthony Brazel, Hillary Butler*, and Paul Martin
 ―A Scenario-Based Assessment of Future Groundwater Resources in the Phoenix
Active Management Area,‖ Vanessa Escobar*
 ―Focusing on Higher Quality Focus Groups,‖ Meredith Gartin*, Amber Wutich,
Tim Lant, Dave White, Kelli Larson, Susan Ledlow, and Pat Gober
 ―The Use of GIS as a Decision-Support Tool by Water Managers in Phoenix,
Arizona,‖ Jason Howard*, Kelli Larson, Dave White, and Elizabeth Wentz
 ―Spatial Extrapolation Mapping Based on Aggregated Data: Countywide
Extrapolation of Phoenix Water Use Data,‖ Seung-Jae Lee and Elizabeth Wentz
 ―Temporal Geographic Information System (TGIS) to Forecast Future Water
Consumption in Phoenix, Arizona,‖ Seung-Jae Lee, Elizabeth Wentz, and Pat
Gober
 ―Water Resources, Climate Change, and Institutional Vulnerability: A Case Study
of Phoenix, Arizona,‖ Brian Pompeii*
 ―WaterSim as an Education Tool,‖ Michael Tschudi
 ―Public Good or Commodity? Institutional Differences in Water Management
Strategies and Conservation Outcomes in Tucson and Phoenix,‖ Kelly Turner*
 ―Water Vulnerability on the Urban Periphery: The Case of Metropolitan Phoenix,
Arizona,‖ Lilah Zautner*
*Graduate students

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Two students presented posters at the American Association for the Advancement of
Science (AAAS) meeting in February 2008 in Boston: "Water Resources, Climate
Change and Institutional Vulnerability: A Case Study of Phoenix, Arizona," by Brian
Pompeii, and ―Water Vulnerability on the Urban Periphery: The Case of Metropolitan
Phoenix, Arizona,‖ by Lilah Zautner. Brian Pompeii won honorable mention in the
Science and Society Division.

DCDC Posters at AAAS Meeting

Postdoctoral Fellows: DCDC funded two post-doctoral fellows during Year 4. They are
Mohan Seetharam, a recent doctoral degree recipient from Clark University's Graduate
School of Geography who specializes in GIS and vulnerability mapping, and Seung-Jae
Lee, who received his doctoral degree from the Department of Environmental Sciences
and Engineering at the University of North Carolina and specializes in environmental
modeling, geostatistics, and data uncertainty.
DCDC also hosted Beatrice Crona, a postdoctoral fellow from the Stockholm Resilience
Center; she was involved in a social-network study and in the ethno-hydrology project.

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IV. Education and Outreach
Decision Center for a Desert City water/climate briefings are an important forum for
interacting with community partners. Speakers in 2007-08 included partners in the
water management community, a member of the Arizona State Senate, an independent
film producer, and a University of California at Los Angeles scientist interested in
climate change. These events drew a total of 499 participants.
September 5, 2007, ―Groundwater Modeling and Multiple Scenario Analysis in the
Prescott Active Management Area.‖ Daniel Timmons, a recent graduate from Northern
Arizona University with a Master of Science degree in Environmental Science and
Policy, used a groundwater model and scenario analysis to simulate the effects of
continued population growth on groundwater supplies in the Prescott Active
Management Area. Tom O’Halleran, Arizona State Senator from District 1, provided
commentary and insights.
October 10, 2007, ―The American Southwest: Are We Running Dry?‖ Jim Thebaut,
writer, producer, and director, gave a preview of his new documentary film, ―Running
Dry,‖ and discussed an upcoming film project, The American Southwest: Are We
Running Dry? Thebaut is a member of the International Documentary Association and
has written, produced, and directed a series of films dealing with important social
issues.
March 5, 2008, ―The Colorado River, Climate Warming, and the Perfect Drought.” Glen
McDonald, professor of geography at UCLA, used the paleoclimatic record to explore the
potential impact of global warming on water in California. Results suggest that the 21st
Century may be fraught with serious and prolonged water-management problems in
Southern California and the Southwest.
April 2, 2008, ―Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Water Planning: East Valley
Water Forum Management Plan.‖ Teresa Makinen, Director of the East Valley Water
Forum, and Doug Toy, who is involved in water planning for the City of Chandler,
presented the East Valley Water Forum’s regional groundwater-management plan and
discussed the need for a regional perspective in groundwater management and
planning.
April 30, 2008, ―Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District: Point and
Counterpoint Discussion.‖ Robert Anderson, an attorney at Fennemore Craig, and
Kathryn Sorensen, Administrative Services Director for the City of Mesa, debated state
legislation that allows developers to use the Central Arizona Groundwater
Replenishment District to fulfill their requirement for a 100-year assured water supply.
DCDC’s graduate students organized a series of three panel discussions dealing with the
process of boundary science, vulnerability assessment, and water policy. A total of 199
university scientists and community partners participated in the discussion, which are
described above in the Education Activities section.
DCDC also hosted a number of ad-hoc lectures over the course of the year:
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March 31, 2008, ―Situational Control of Pro-Anti Environmental Behavior,‖ Dawn Hill,
University of Arizona.
April 8, 2008, ―Environmental Responsibility and Conservation Psychology,‖ Melinda S.
Merrick, Human Nature Research Laboratory, University of Illinois.
May 16, 2008, ―Urban Climate Models and their Applications,‖ Sue Grimmond,
Environmental Monitoring and Modeling Group, Department of Geography, Kings
College, London.
May 28, 2008, ―Weathering the Waves: Climate Change, Livelihoods, and Politics in
Tuvalu, Heather Lazrus, Environmental Anthropology, University of Washington.
DCDC’s WaterSim model was featured in a full-length story in the August 12, 2007,
Sunday edition of the Arizona Republic. The article announced WaterSim’s availability
on the Web (http://watersim.asu.edu/) and discussed DCDC’s work in climate, water,
and decision science.

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Presentations and Miscellaneous Activities
DCDC researchers regularly present DCDC research goals and results to community
groups, students, and other local and international academic institutions.
On behalf of DCDC, Pat Gober made the following presentations in 2007-08:
July 14, 2007. ―Urban Sustainability and the Future of Phoenix.‖ Advanced Placement
Conference, Las Vegas.
October 7, 2007. ―Water, Climate, Growth, and the Future of Phoenix.‖ Biltmore
Kiwanis Club, Phoenix.
October 10, 2007. ―Water! Where Will It Come From?‖ Scottsdale Area Association of
Realtors, Scottsdale.
November 13, 2007. ―Assessing Climate Change in Long-Term Water-Resource
Planning.‖ Annual Meeting of the American Water Resources Association,
Albuquerque.
November 16, 2007. ―WaterSim: An Integrated Model for Research and Decision
Making.‖ Colorado River Delta Research Coordination Network, Tucson.
November 26, 2007. ―The Social Science of Climate Change.‖ Climate Change: The
Role of Higher Education in Arizona Conference, Tempe.
January 15, 2008. ―The Inconvenient Truth about Phoenix.‖ President’s Community
Enrichment Series, Desert Botanical Gardens, Phoenix.
February 16, 2008. ―Desert Urbanization, Global Challenges.‖ American Association
for the Advancement of Science, Boston.
April 4, 2008. ―Global Water Resources and Vulnerability from Climate Change and
Population Growth.‖ World Affairs Conference, Hilton Head.
Presentations
2008
Bolin, B., M. Seetharam, P. Gober, and B. Pompeii. 2008. ―Water Resources, Climate
Change, and Institutional Vulnerability: A Case Study of Phoenix, Arizona.‖ Paper
presented at the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Boston,
MA. April 18, 2008.
Brazel, A.J. 2008. ―Benefits to Society of Urban Climate Research.‖ Meeting of the
Association of American Geographers, Boston, MA. April 18, 2008.

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Chhetri, N. and U. Chong. 2008. ―Soft-Path Solutions under Uncertainty: Multiple
Stressor Analysis of Water Resources in the Lower Colorado River Basin.‖ Paper
presented at the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Boston,
MA. April 18, 2008.
Ellis, A.W. 2008. ―Defining Drought Occurrence within the Colorado River Basin since
the Late 19th Century.‖ Annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers,
Boston, MA. April 19, 2008.
Gammage, G. 2008. ―State Trust Land Reform.‖ McDowell-Sonoran Land
Conservancy, Scottsdale, AZ. February 2008.
Gammage, G. 2008. ―Will Phoenix Go the Way of the Hohokam?‖ Panel discussion
hosted by High Country News. January 2008.
Gartin, M. 2008. ―Being a 'Water-Buffalo': Political Discourse among Arizona's Water
Policymakers.‖ Paper presented at the 68th Annual Meeting for the Society for Applied
Anthropology, Memphis, TN. March 27, 2008.
Gober, P. 2008. ―Integrating Modeling for Water Resource Planning in Phoenix.‖
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers,
Boston, MA. April 18, 2008.
Gries, C., K. Jacobs, W.D. Otte, R. Vasquez, J. Abraham, R. Aguilar, J. McGill, S.
Bhargav, and H. Nguyen. 2008. ―The Arizona Hydrologic Information System.‖
American Water Resources Association Spring Specialty Conference, San Mateo, CA.
March 17, 2008.
Jacobs, K., J. Buizer, and D. Cash. 2008. ―Making Short-Term Climate Forecasts
Useful: Linking Science and Action.‖ Invited Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences Chapter, to be presented at a National Academy of Sciences Sackler
Colloquium, Washington, D.C. April 2008.
Jacobs, K., L. Lebel, J. Buizer, L. Addams, P. Matson, E. McCullough, P. Garden, G.
Saliba, and T. Finan. 2008. ―Linking Knowledge with Action in the Pursuit of
Sustainable Water Resources Management.‖ Invited Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences Chapter, National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium,
Washington, D.C. April 2008.
Killeen, P. 2008. ―The Law of Affect.‖ South American Psychological Association,
Bogota, Colombia.
Killeen, P. 2008. ―The Mother of All Discount Functions.‖ Association for
Psychological Science.
Lant, T. and V. Escobar. 2008. ―Scenario-Based Modeling for Future Groundwater
Management Planning.‖ National Ground Water Association Groundwater Summit,
Memphis, TN. March 31 - April 3, 2008.
- 20 -

Larson, K.L. 2008. ―Sustaining Water Resources, or Maintaining the Status Quo?‖
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers,
Boston MA. April 18, 2008.
Larson, K.L. 2008. ―Environmental Perspectives as Sociocultural Elements of Water
Resource Management: Case Studies of Portland, OR vs. Phoenix, AZ.‖ Institute for
Water and Watersheds, Oregon State University - Corvallis, OR. March 2008.
Larson, K.L. 2008. ―Environmental Perspectives in the Phoenix Valley: Concern about
Water Issues, Risk Perceptions, and Policy Preferences.‖ Riparian Institute, Gilbert, AZ.
February 2008.
Neff, M., B. Bolin, B. Cutts, K. Darby, E. Larson, T. Munoz-Erickson, and A. Wutich.
2008. ―Does Truth Flow Like Water? The Role of Social Networks in the Flow of
Scientific Understandings in a Water Management Controversy.‖ Paper presented at
the annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Boston, MA. April 15,
2008.
White, D.D., A. Wutich, T. Lant, and P. Gober. 2008. ―Comparing Focus Group and
Individual Responses on Sensitive Topics: A Study of Water Decision-Makers in a
Desert City.‖ Paper presented at the 14th International Symposium on Society and
Resource Management, Burlington, VT. June 12, 2008.
Wingren, E., J. Parker, and B. Crona. 2008. ―Performance and Perception at a Science
and Policy Boundary.‖ Pacific Sociology Association General Meeting, Portland, OR.
April 10, 2008.
Zautner, L. 2008. ―Water Vulnerability on the Urban Periphery: The Case of
Metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona.‖ Paper presented at the annual meeting of the
Association of American Geographers, Boston, MA. April 18, 2008.
2007
Brazel, A.J. 2007. ―Changing Urban Climate.‖ Ninety-second Annual Meeting of the
National Council for Geographic Education, Oklahoma City, OK. October 19, 2007.
Brazel, A.J. 2007. ―Snow and Ice and Climate Change - Southwest and Global
Perspectives.‖ Second Annual Emeritus College Symposium on Environmental
Changes: Science, Politics, and Culture, Tempe, AZ. November 3, 2007.
Brazel, A.J., S. Harlan, L. Prashad, W.L. Stefanov, D. Jenerette, L. Larsen, and N. Jones.
2007. ―The Shaping of Neighborhood Microclimates.‖ Ecological Society of America
annual meeting, San Jose, CA. August 10, 2007.
Chhetri, N., L. Hidinger, M. Neff, M. O Shea, A. Buttar, and U. Chong. 2007. ―Multiple
Realities: Stressor Analysis of Water Resources in Central Arizona.‖ Paper presented at
the conference on Connecting Science, Society and Development, University of Sussex,
UK. September 18-20, 2007.
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Ellis, A.W. 2007. ―Instituting the Hydroclimatic Index in Monitoring Drought across
the Colorado River Basin.‖ Ninth Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado
Plateau, United States Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ. October 30, 2007.
Ellis, A.W. 2007. ―Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Central Arizona Water
Supply.‖ Project WET Teachers Workshop, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona
State University, Tempe, AZ.
Ellis, A.W. 2007. ―Incorporating the Hydroclimatic Index in Drought Monitoring,
Forecasting, and Scenario Building for the Colorado River Basin.‖ Science and
Technology Workshop, Bureau of Reclamation, Salt Lake City, UT.
Ellis, A.W. 2007. ―Modeling the Impacts of Potential Climate Change on the Phoenix
Water Supply.‖ Guest lecture: BIO591/GPH591: Seminar in Ecological Climatology.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Proposition 207.‖ Arizona Boards and Commissions Conference,
Phoenix, AZ. December 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Comparing Phoenix and Denver.‖ Denver Leadership (including
Mayor of Denver and Governor of Colorado). October 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Arizona's Counties and the Future.‖ County Supervisors'
Association, Flagstaff, AZ. October 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Growth and Water: Is Conservation Enough?‖ Panel discussion
at the Colorado River Symposium, Santa Fe, NM. September 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Arizona Home Rule.‖ Arizona League of Cities and Towns
Conference, Scottsdale, AZ. August 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Recharge and Arizona Water Sustainability.‖ Panel discussion at
Southwest Hydrology Conference, Tucson, AZ. August 2007.
Gammage, G. 2007. ―Superstition Vistas: The Future of Large Developments?‖
Technical session at the "Sustainable Water, Unlimited Growth, Quality of Life: Can We
Have It All?" 2007 Regional Water Symposium, Tucson, AZ. August 31, 2007.
Groves, D., R. Lempert, P. Gober, and D. Yates. 2007. ―Addressing Climate Change in
Long-Term Water Resource Planning.‖ Panel discussion presented at the American
Water Resources Association's annual conference, Albuquerque, NM. November 13,
2007.
Guhathakurta, S. and P. Gober. 2007. ―The Impact of Housing Characteristics and
Surface Heat Islands on Water Use in Single-Family Residences: The Case of the
Phoenix Metropolitan Area.‖ Paper presented at the 54th Annual North American
Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Savannah, GA. November
9, 2007.

- 22 -

Harlan, S.L. 2007. ―Household Water Consumption in an Arid City: Affluence,
Affordance, and Attitudes.‖ Presented at First Thursdays, Winslow | Orcutt Architects,
Phoenix, AZ. December 6, 2007.
Harlan, S.L., S. Yabiku, L. Larsen, and A. Brazel. 2007. ―Household Water
Consumption in an Arid City: Affluence, Affordance, and Attitudes.‖ Paper presented at
the 102nd annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, New York, NY.
August 11, 2007.
Holway, J. 2007. ―Characterization of Arizona Energy/Water Issues.‖ 2007 Regional
Water Symposium "Sustainable Water, Unlimited Growth, Quality of Life: Can We Have
it All?" Tucson, AZ. August 31, 2007.
Keller, L.R. and C. Kirkwood. 2007. ―Preference Functions for Decisions with
Geographically-Varying Attributes.‖ INFORMS International Conference, Puerto Rico.
July 10, 2007.
Larson, K.L. 2007. ―Socio-Cultural Elements of Sustaining Water Resources: The Case
of the Phoenix Oasis.‖ School of Geographical Sciences, Arizona State University,
Tempe, AZ. November 2007.
Redman, C.L. 2007. ―Five Elements of a Sustainable Future.‖ Emeritus College
Symposium, Tempe, AZ. November 3, 2007.
Redman, C.L. 2007. ―IGERT in Urban Ecology.‖ Conference for Sustainability
IGERT's, Fairbanks, AK. October 10-13, 2007.
Redman, C.L. 2007. ―Sustainability.‖ Leadership West Environment Issue Day,
Tempe, AZ. May 3, 2007.
Schwartz, K. and M. Elser. 2007. ―Using Survey Instruments to Design More Effective
Workshops.‖ Research Symposium at the North American Association for
Environmental Education Annual Conference, Virginia Beach, VA. November 14, 2007.
White, D.D., A. Wutich, S. Ledlow, and P. Gober. 2007. ―Credibility, Saliency, and
Legitimacy of Boundary Objects for Water-Resource Decision Making: Assessing
Stakeholder Response to DCDC WaterSim.‖ Paper presented at the 13th International
Symposium on Society and Resource Management, Park City, UT. June 17-21, 2007.
Wutich, A., T. Lant, M. Gartin, D. White, and K.L. Larson. 2007. ―Getting Hard-to-Get
Data: Are Group Interviews Really Better?‖ Paper presented at the annual meeting of
the American Anthropological Association, Washington, D.C. November 29 - December
2, 2007.

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V. Contributions
Human-Natural Coupled Systems: The Decision Center for a Desert City has
produced a substantial body of urban environmental research that links the physical and
human aspects of geography. DCDC—with its emphasis on climatic uncertainty, water
resource management, and human vulnerability—has created opportunities for
geographers to delve into new subfields and pose more complex societal questions.
Examples of integrative work include: linking City of Phoenix water consumption with
temperature and precipitation conditions (Balling and Gober 2007); assessing the
sensitivity of different urban landscapes to climate conditions (Balling et al. under
review); relating Phoenix’s urban heat island to residential growth patterns (Brazel et al.
2007); and correlating the urban-heat–island effect with residential water use
(Guhathakurta and Gober 2008). An exemplar of this type of research is our project to
relate individual perceptions of water quality to physical measures of odor, color, and
taste, and then relate these in turn to the cultural understandings of water quality in
Hispanic and Anglo neighborhoods.
Boundary Science: DCDC’s research, education, and outreach demonstrate a new
form of science-policy engagement for geographers. The discipline of geography has, in
the main, accepted Vannevar Bush’s linear model of science and society in which the
social benefits of a scientific discovery appear many years after the discovery itself.
According to this model, applied and basic science are separate activities. Applied
geographers have been relegated to a secondary, derivative position in which they are
perceived to use the ideas and methods of basic science for real-world problem solving.
The unfortunate result of this false dichotomy is a disconnection between scientists and
decision making. DCDC was founded to bridge this divide and to deploy the power of
science for better water management decisions. DCDC provides an intellectual space for
geographers to reconsider the boundary between science and policy, and to seek
opportunities to fuse new-knowledge production with solutions to society’s most vexing
problems.
Bayesian Maximum Entropy Modeling (BME): Postdoctoral fellow Seung-Jae
Lee has engaged several DCDC geographers in writing a series of that use BME for
spatial and temporal interpolation and extrapolation. Although the environmental
modeling and assessment community has used BME as a means of managing
uncertainty, it is not widely used in the geographical sciences. DCDC scientists have
used BME stochastic methods to improve mapping accuracy of the urban heat island in
Phoenix (Brazel et al. 2007; Lee et al. 2008), to extrapolate local-scale water
consumption from cities where data are collected to outlying parts of the urban region
(Lee and Wentz 2008), and to extrapolate water consumption data to future points in
time (Lee, et al. under review).
Climate Modeling and Urban Design Options: DCDC’s interests in urban growth
and climate have converged in analyses of the climate impacts of different urban design
options. These projects take two forms. The first study builds upon studies of the
sensitivity of different urban layouts to climate variability and change. The second
involves linking urban water-balance and energy-balance models to analyze the water
and temperature consequences of different urban design regimes. These scenarios
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consider landscape treatments, building heights and densities, management of
greenspace, and vegetated roof conversions.
Education: Monica Elser worked with two community college instructors and two
high school Advanced Placement Human Geography teachers to develop lessons for
geography courses centered on WaterSim. The group is preparing to put the materials
on the DCDC Web site and the two community college instructors will present
professional papers in the fall at regional conferences.
Contributions to other disciplines:
DCDC’s mission as an interdisciplinary research center is to apply traditional
disciplinary knowledge to solve the complex, practical problem of how to manage
Central Arizona’s water sustainably. The goal is not only to produce new disciplinary
knowledge, but also to develop strategic connections among participating disciplines.
WaterSim has provided opportunities for scientists from several disciplines to work on
sub-models and then to negotiate with colleagues about how those models are joined.
DCDC’s past and ongoing research projects include studies by economists of the price
elasticity of local water demand, by psychologists of the trade-offs that people make
between indoor and outdoor water use, by sociologists of the equity aspects of likely
future water shortage, by historians of the environmental history of water conflicts and
management, and by science and policy analysts of the evolving relationship between
DCDC scientists and water decision makers. The results of these and other studies have
appeared in a number of disciplinary and interdisciplinary journals, including the
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Public Economics, Environmental
Hazards, Journal of the American Planning Association, Environmental History,
Society and Natural Resources, and Research in Social Problems and Public Policy.
Education and Outreach:
DCDC’s formative years coincided with a fundamental restructuring of Arizona State
University to augment transdisciplinary science and real-world problem solving. Hence,
we were able to partner with other university programs to offer innovative learning
programs to students. Margaret Nelson, Associate Dean of the Barrett Honors College,
has for the past four years organized a three-credit Community of Undergraduate
Research Scholars Program in conjunction with the Central Arizona–Phoenix LongTerm Ecological Research project and Urban Ecology IGERT. Students from the
Research Experience for Undergraduates program have attended and presented posters
at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meetings for each
of the past three years, and we have sponsored a local poster symposium displaying
their work. Held in conjunction with a DCDC Monthly Water-Climate Briefing, the
annual poster symposium attracts students, their mentors, DCDC scientists, and water
managers. It demonstrates the fusion of scientific discovery, transdisciplinary learning,
and the search for real-world solutions.
In Years 3 and 4, we required DCDC graduate students to participate in a seminar to
increase awareness of cross-DCDC activities and to institutionalize interdisciplinary
- 25 -

research and learning. In Year 3, the students interacted with counterparts at other
DMUU centers and organized a poster session at the 2007 AAAS meetings. In Year 4,
our ―DMUUers‖ took to the road to visit the other centers and recruit students for crosssite collaborative projects. The aim of these activities is to build a grassroots, national
network of interdisciplinary scientists who are interested in decision making under
uncertainty and the link between science and solutions to societal problems.
DCDC co-hosted the Advanced Water and Climate Education Workshop, attended by 28
water educators and professionals, on July 31-August 1, 2007. The focus of the
workshop was on climate change and its potential consequences for Central Arizona’s
water supply. Speakers included: Michael Crimmins, Assistant Professor and Climate
Science Extension Specialist from the University of Arizona; George Zaimes, Assistant
Professor and Extension Specialist in watershed, riparian, and rangeland management
at UA; Andrew W. Ellis, Associate Professor of Geography at ASU and DCDC Climate
Science team member; Tom Cooper, engineer in Intel’s water conservation program;
Dave White, Assistant Professor of Community Resources and Development at ASU and
DCDC Boundary Science team member; and Nancy Jones, DCDC Research Professional.

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DCDC 2008 Annual Report – Appendix A
Partner Organizations and DCDC Participants
Partner Organizations
Salt River Project: (Ongoing) SRP delivers nearly one million acre-feet of water to a
service area in central Arizona and operates an extensive water-delivery system that
includes reservoirs, wells, canals, and irrigation laterals. SRP has provided a wide range
of information to DCDC scientists, including hydrological data, public attitude surveys
that reveal household perception of drought and responsiveness to conservation
messages, reports of water duties (usage rates) associated with different land uses, water
delivery data, and irrigation coverage. SRP climatologists and water managers are
among the most regular participants at the DCDC Climate/Water Briefings and SRP
representatives gave presentations and sparked discussion at two monthly
Water/Climate Briefings. SRP also partnered with DCDC and University of Arizona's
Water Resources Research Center on a summer 2006 workshop for teachers held at
DCDC.
City of Phoenix: (Ongoing) DCDC collaborates closely with the City of Phoenix's Water
Services Department, sharing the results of different but complementary water
modeling efforts. In addition, the City has provided an immensely useful data set that
includes municipal water use by different types of users across census tracts between
1990 and 2005. City representatives presented two DCDC monthly Water/Climate
Briefings.
University of Arizona: (Ongoing) DCDC collaborates with three University of Arizona
(UA) research centers dedicated partly or wholly to water and climate research.
Researchers from the Arizona Water Resources Research Center (WRRC) participate in
the science and technology policy/boundary organization efforts, investigating public
perception of drought and water management. DCDC also partners with Climate
Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), part of UA's Institute for the Study of Planet
Earth on climate research. DCDC and UA's Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and
Riparian Areas (SAHRA) are developing an online digital water-information system.
SAHRA's experience with a broad spectrum of stakeholders (both public agencies and
private organizations) enhances the relevancy of the project to decision makers.
Arizona Water Institute: (Ongoing) The Arizona Water Institute is a state-wide
initiative to facilitate cross-university research about water resource management.
Focus thus far is on developing the Arizona Hydrologic Information System.
Northern Arizona University: (2005-06) DCDC co-sponsored the Arizona Water
Summit, held at NAU in August 2005, with the Center for Sustainable Environments.
This event brought together the state, local, and tribal water management communities
to discuss relevant science and policy issues related to water resource management.
East Valley Water Forum: (2004-05) The East Valley Water Forum consists of tribal,
public, and private water agencies in the East Salt River Valley. They shared their
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groundwater-modeling output with DCDC so it could be integrated with agent-based
models to produce visualizations for the Decision Theater.
Arizona Department of Water Resources: (2004-05) A DCDC-sponsored intern worked
20 hours per week at ADWR to retrieve data on the Phoenix area's water budget. The
intern also developed metadata about how ADWR created the water budget.
INTEL: (2004-2005) The DCDC/Intel partnership pursued three areas of mutual
interest: (1) sharing expertise and technology through education, training, seminars,
and the Decision Theater; (2) working with industrial-sector water users to promote
conservation measures and voluntary goals before mandatory water requirements take
shape; and (3) researching the policy and technology driving water management.
Lincoln Institute for Land Policy: (2004-05) DCDC partnered with the Lincoln Institute
for Land Policy on a land-use workshop that developed three K-12 education modules:
(1) long-term climate change in Phoenix, (2) GIS interfaces to explore the urban heat
island, and (3) a thermal-mapping activity.
Other Collaborators
Center for Science, Policy and Outcomes: (Ongoing) DCDC collaborates with ASU's
Center for Science, Policy and Outcomes (CSPO), an internationally known organization
involved in studying the linkages between science and technology and society. In fall
2006, CSPO convened a workshop of scientists actively studying water resource
management in the Southwest with a goal of identifying the major stressors on the
Phoenix metropolitan area water supply. Workshop results were used to help DCDC
develop research priorities and to provide regional water managers with information
regarding potential vulnerabilities. In spring and summer of 2007, CSPO will expand
the geographic scope of their 2006 research. Specifically, CSPO will perform
background research to identify key areas of uncertainty about water supply and assess
the comprehensive picture of demand in the region to include the entire lower Colorado
River Basin. They will produce a draft paper covering the current knowledge of stressors
on this region’s water supply and predictions about future changes. This paper will also
create a ranking of stressors on the system.
Global Institute of Sustainability: (Ongoing) DCDC is administered by and closely
collaborates with ASU's Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS). GIOS serves as the
bridge to other relevant NSF-sponsored projects, especially the Central Arizona Phoenix
Long-Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) project, the Urban Ecology Integrative
Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program, the cross-site
Biocomplexity in the Environment project on Agrarian Landscapes in Transition, and
the Sustainability Partnership Enterprise. As GIOS expands, international researchers
are being asked to participate in its programs, including DCDC.
Decision Theater: (Ongoing) Founded simultaneously with DCDC, the Decision Theater
at Arizona State University is a learning and decision space in which the latest
understanding of complex social, economic, and natural processes and their interactions
are visualized. DCDC works closely with DT to translate DCDC science and modeling
- 28 -

into visualizations applicable for the general public and decision makers. DCDC’s
WaterSim is presented in the Decision Theater, and DT was used as the setting for a
project to evaluate WaterSim as a decision support tool.
Central Arizona – Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research: (Ongoing) DCDC and the
CAP LTER partnered in the design and implementation of the second round of the
Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS), a survey of 800 randomly selected Phoenix-area
households. The survey asks respondents about their knowledge of, attitudes toward,
and behaviors about a set of locally-relevant environmental issues, including urban
sprawl, air quality, the urban heat island, and water scarcity. Results will allow DCDC
researchers to test hypotheses about the interrelationships among environmental
knowledge, attitudes and value systems, and ultimate behavior regarding water use and
conservation practices. Closer collaboration between DCDC and CAP LTER, ASU's two
large urban environmental research programs, offers the opportunity for integration of
DCDC's inherently social science approach to urban modeling with CAP LTER's more
ecological approach. A summer 2006 summit developed a research agenda to
investigate human and ecological adaptations to future climate change. In 2007, DCDC
and CAP LTER are expanding the PASS project to include GIOS scientists and public
sector professionals.
University of California at Irvine Paul Merage School of Business: (Ongoing) Decision
research at DCDC includes a partnership between L. Robin Keller (University of
California at Irvine Paul Merage School of Business) and ASU faculty. The multiobjective decision analysis work performed in Year 1 is the foundation for developing
decision-focused evaluation metrics for use with the models that are being developed
within DCDC.
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars: (Ongoing) ASU’s Community of
Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS) provides opportunities for undergraduate
students enrolled in the Barrett Honors College to contribute to DCDC research. In
2007, DCDC hosted the second annual COURS poster session, highlighting the
interdisciplinary work of more than a dozen students. Faculty associated with DCDC,
IGERT, the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP),
CAP LTER and other NSF-funded projects oversaw the research presented.
Project Wet: (Ongoing) In 2006, DCDC partnered with University of Arizona's Project
Wet and the Salt River Project to host a summer teacher training workshop, where 30
teachers from K-12 schools in the Phoenix Metropolitan area developed new learning
materials based on local environmental issues such as water scarcity, water recycling,
and the urban heat island. The new learning materials are based upon DCDC research,
data sets, and outreach activities. A second ―Advanced Water Educator’s Workshop‖ is
scheduled for July 2007.
ASU President’s Office: (2006-08) DCDC and other university constituents, under the
guidance of the Office of the University President, partnered with the Arizona Republic
to create the Metropolitan Phoenix Indicators Project, a set of data presented in an
impartial manner to illuminate the current state of the economic, social and cultural life
of our region.
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Other ASU research and academic units: (Ongoing) DCDC regularly co-sponsors
lectures and symposia with other ASU research and academic units. These events bring
together individuals from industry and multiple academic disciplines to explore and
discuss topics such as robust decision making, historic perspectives of water in societies,
visualization in environmental policy, and climate change in human-dominated
systems.
Community Partners-Personnel Exchanges
City of Tempe: (Ongoing) City of Tempe supplies household-water-use data for DCDC
analysis. Under DCDC's auspices and supervision, the Tempe Water Utilities
Department sponsored an internship in 2006-07. The student investigated the potential
water savings under various landscape water conservation scenarios.
City of Mesa: (2006-07) Under DCDC auspices and supervision, the City of Mesa
Utilities Department sponsored an internship for an undergraduate student. The intern
worked with a water resource specialists in the Resources Division of the Utilities
Department. The intern assisted in research focused on scenario assessment for Mesa’s
long-term groundwater management plan.

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DCDC Participants
Principal Investigators/Project Directors
Patricia Gober, School of Geographical Sciences
Charles L. Redman, Global Institute of Sustainability
Co-Principal Investigators
Bob Bolin, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Grady Gammage, Jr., Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Thomas Taylor, Mathematics and Statistics
Senior Personnel: Manager
Bill Edwards, Executive Administrator
Senior Personnel: Core Scientists
John Anderies, School of Life Sciences
Brad Armendt, Philosophy
Richard Aspinall, School of Geographical Sciences
Robert Balling, School of Geographical Sciences
Anthony Brazel, School of Geographical Sciences
David Casagrande, Global Institute of Sustainability
Elizabeth Corley, School of Public Affairs
Andrew Ellis, School of Geographical Sciences
Monica Elser, Global Institute of Sustainability
Gregg Garfin, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona
William Griffin, Family & Human Development
Corinna Gries, Global Institute of Sustainability
Suzanne Grossman-Clarke, Global Institute of Sustainability
Subhrajit Guhathakurta, School of Planning
Ed Hackett, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Sharon Harlan, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
James Holway, Global Institute of Sustainability
Jana Hutchins, Institute for Social Science Research
Kathy Jacobs, SAHRA, University of Arizona; AWI
Donald Keefer, Supply Chain Management
L. Robin Keller, University of California-Irvine Graduate School of Management
Peter Killeen, Psychology
Ann Kinzig, School of Life Sciences
Craig Kirkwood, Supply Chain Management
Michael Kuby, School of Geographical Sciences
Tim Lant, Global Institute of Sustainability/Mathematics
Kelli Larson, School of Geographical Sciences/Global Institute of Sustainability
Peter McCartney, Global Institute of Sustainability
Margaret Nelson, Barrett Honors College
Joan McGregor, Philosophy
Rob Melnick, Global Institute of Sustainability/Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Ray Quay, City of Phoenix
Anshuman Razdan, Partnership for Research in Spatial Modeling
Jeremy Rowe, Information Technology
- 31 -

Charlene Saltz, University of Arizona
Daniel Sarewitz, School of Life Sciences
Kerry Smith, W.P Carey School of Business; Economics
Barbara Trapido-Lurie, School of Geographical Sciences
Elizabeth Wentz, School of Geographical Sciences
Dave White, School of Community Resources and Development
William Verdini, College of Extended Education
Joseph Zehnder, Geography
Postdoctoral Research Associates
Timothy Collins, School of Geographical Sciences
Seung-Jae Lee, School of Public Health
Mohan Seetharam, Decision Center for a Desert City
Other Collaborators
Rimjhim Aggarwal, School of Sustainability
James Buizer, Office of Sustainability Initiatives
Netra Chhetri, Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes
John Crittenden, Civil & Environmental Engineering
Beatrice Crona, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Michael Crow, President Arizona State University
Rob Edsall, School of Geographical Sciences
Priscilla Greenwood, Department of Mathematics
Paul Hirt, Department of History
Susan Ledlow, Global Institute of Sustainability
Chris Lukinbeal, School of Geographical Sciences
Chris Martin, Department of Applied Biological Sciences
James Middleton, College of Education
Soe Myint, School of Geographical Sciences
John Parker, Barrett Honors College
Ed Sadalla, Department of Psychology
Nancy Selover, School of Geographical Sciences
Paul Torrens, School of Geographical Sciences
Paul Westerhoff, Civil & Environmental Engineering
Amber Wutich, School of Human Evolution and Social Change

Research Technical Personnel
Steven Brautigan, Decision Theater
Aashish Chaudhary, Decision Theater
Charlie Collins, Decision Theater
Deirdre Hahn, Decision Theater
Dustin Hampton, Decision Theater
Jiuxiang Hu, Decision Theater
Shea Lemar, Information Technology
Wayne Porter, Global Institute of Sustainability
Robin Schroeder, Global Institute of Sustainability
Michael Zoldak, Institute for Social Science Research
- 32 -

Public Outreach Personnel
Nancy Jones, Decision Center for a Desert City
Research Support Personnel
Michelle Schwartz, Decision Center for a Desert City
Karen Gronberg, Global Institute of Sustainability
Nikol Grant, Global Institute of Sustainability
Linda Newsom, Decision Center for a Desert City
Estella O'Hanlon, Decision Center for a Desert City
Lauren Kuby, Global Institute of Sustainability
Michael Tschudi, Decision Center for a Desert City
Graduate Research Associate
Srushti Abhyankar, Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Stacey Avent, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Suresh Ayyalsamy, Family and Human Development
Neil Barton, School of Geographical Sciences
Jagadeesh Chirumamilla, School of Geographical Sciences
Erin Comparri, School of Geographical Sciences
Bethany Cutts, School of Life Sciences
Stephanie Deitrick, School of Geographical Sciences
Jillian Elder, School of Geographical Sciences
Vanessa Escobar, Geology
Meredith Gartin, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Chris Graham, School of Geographical Sciences
Anne Gustafson, History
Shannon Gysberg, School of Geographical Sciences
Zeenat Hasan, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Brent Hedquist, School of Geographical Sciences
Vasudha Lathey, Environmental Design/Planning
Kim Michel, School of Life Sciences
Mark Neff, School of Life Sciences
Darren Ruddell, School of Geographical Sciences
Megan O'Shea, School Of Earth & Space Exploration; School of Geographical Sciences
Jamie Patterson, School of Geographical Sciences
Brian Pompeii, School of Geographical Sciences
Shana Schmidt, Family and Human Development
Clea Senneville, School of Sustainability
Cheryl Sexton, Family and Human Development
Clarie Smith, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Subramanian Swaminathan, School of Geographical Sciences
Margaret White, School of Life Sciences
Yolanda Youngs, School of Geographical Sciences
Lilah Zautner, School of Geographical Sciences
Kelly Turner, School of Geographical Sciences
Other Grads
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Jessica Block, Geology
Hoi Cheung, College of Design
Kade Hutchinson, Geology (Decision Theater)
Steve Swanson, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Community of Undergraduate Research Scholars (COURS)
Malaya Fletcher, Global Institute of Sustainability
Peter Howe, School of Geographical Sciences
Allyn Knox, Biology
Matt Kruger, Political Science
Nicholas Moore, School of Geographical Sciences
Arianne Peterson, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Melanie Tluczek, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Eva Wingren, School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Other Undergrads
Lubinka Andonoska, Public Administration
Hillary Butler, Plant Biology
Avneet Buttar, Computer Information Systems
Laura Hand, Public Administration
Brian Keegan, Business
Andrew Knochel, Urban Planning
Adam McDaniel, Global Institute of Sustainability
Eric Moore, Department of Finance
Caroline Newcombe, Civil Engineering
Annissa Olsen, School of Global Studies
Michelle Rupp, Political Science
Rosanne Servis, English
Uven Chong, Mechanical Engineering
Community Partners
Michael Ellegood, Maricopa Flood Control District
Mitchell Haws, Bureau of Reclamation
John Hetrick, Salt River Project
Ray Quay, City of Phoenix
Dallas Reigle, Salt River Project
Kerry Schwartz, Water Resources Research Center
Organizational Partners (outside ASU)
Salt River Project
City of Phoenix
East Valley Water Forum
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Intel
University of Arizona
Lincoln Institute for Land Policy
Arizona Water Institute
City of Tempe
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City of Mesa
Arizona Town Hall
Other collaborations
ASU President’s Office
American Indian Policy Center
Central Arizona–Phoenix Long Term Ecological Project (CAP LTER)
Arizona Town Hall

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