An Assessment of the Economic Impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project on the Economies of the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area, Arizona, and the United States by Dr. Madan M. Singh Arizona Department of Mines & Mineral Resources Special Report 26 November 2009 State of Arizona Jan Brewer, Governor Phoenix, Arizona ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF MINES AND MINERAL RESOURCES Dr. Madan M. Singh, Director 1502 West Washington Phoenix, Arizona 85007 602 771-1600 Fax 602-771-1616 Toll-free in Arizona – 800-446-4259 www.mines.az.gov Board of Governors Dr. P. F. O’Hara - Prescott Chairman Dr. M. M. Poulton - Tucson Vice-Chairman R. L. Holmes - Phoenix Secretary P.K. Medhi - Casa Grande Member L.H. White - Phoenix Member Cover: Exposed mineralization at Rosemont copper deposit An Assessment of the Economic Impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project on the Economies of the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area, the State of Arizona, and the United States Arizona Department of Mines and Mineral Resources November 2009 Prepared by the L. William Seidman Research Institute W. P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University Table of Contents Page Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................1 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................6 1.1 Summary of the Results: Engineering/Construction Phase ....................................7 1.2 Summary of Results: Production/Post-Production Phase ......................................8 1.3 Comparison of Results with the Previous Analysis Based on a Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area .....................................................................................9 2. Economic/Financial Overview.....................................................................................10 3. Economic Impacts ........................................................................................................14 3.1 Direct Impacts ......................................................................................................15 3.2 Total Impacts ........................................................................................................18 4. Concluding Observations .............................................................................................27 4.1 Population Changes ..............................................................................................27 4.2 Residual Impacts ..................................................................................................29 References ................................................................................................................................33 Technical Appendix .......................................................................................................................35 A1. Economic Impact Analysis Using the REMI Model ..................................................35 A2. The REMI Model ........................................................................................................35 A3. Updating of the Baseline or Control Forecast .............................................................36 A4. Definition of the Local Study Area .............................................................................36 A5. Definition of the Study Period ....................................................................................37 A6. Calculation of the Direct Impacts ...............................................................................37 A7. Government Revenues ................................................................................................38 A8. Inconsistencies in the Results across the Three Regions .......................................... 38a An Assessment of the Economic Impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project on the Economies of the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area, the State of Arizona, and the United States Executive Summary This report summarizes the results of an economic impact analysis of the Rosemont Copper Project, an open-pit mining operation to be developed on a 15,000 acre site in Pima County about 30 miles southeast of Tucson. The analysis employed the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model to estimate the economic impacts of the Project for the Cochise/Pima County/Santa Cruz Counties study area, for the State of Arizona, and for the United States. Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Construction Phase  Construction of the Project will generate an average annual increase of $96 million (all dollar-denominated figures refer to 2008$) in economic activity in the study area (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from local suppliers) over a fouryear engineering/construction period.  The engineering/construction phase will provide a total of 3,600 person-years of employment for local workers.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income (dividends, interest, rent, proprietors’ income, and net profits) produced by the economic activity associated with the engineering/construction phase will provide an average of $38 million per year in additional income to area residents.  The engineering/construction phase will generate almost $5 million per year in revenues for local governments in the study area. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 1 of 56  Over the entire engineering/construction period, impacts will total $385 million in additional demand for goods and services from suppliers in the study area, $245 million in gross regional product, $152 million in personal income, and $18 million in local government revenues. Production/Post-Production Phase  Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $701 million per year in economic activity (measured in terms of incremental regional output) within the study area over a 20-year production period.  Mine and mill operations will employ an average of 406 workers – with peak employment of 444 – and will support an average of 1,700 other jobs – a total of approximately 2,100 additional jobs for area residents.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an annual average of $143 million in additional income to area residents.  Production activities will generate an average of $19 million per year in incremental revenues for local governments in the study area.  Over the entire expected production/post-production period, the overall impacts will be $15 billion in additional output, $8 billion in gross regional product, $3 billion in personal income, and $404 million in local government revenues.  The Rosemont Copper Project will have lasting positive effects on the economy of the study area. Permanent changes to the regional economy would occur as a result of the increased levels of economic activity associated with the development and operation of the Rosemont mine. These changes will result in residual economic impacts in the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties area that will persist after the end of the Project. The forecast results indicate that the level of economic activity would be $52 million per year higher, the area residents’ income $68 million per year higher, employment more than 300 higher, and local government revenues $2 million per year more than if the Rosemont Copper Project never existed. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 2 of 56 The State of Arizona Construction Phase  Construction of the Project will generate an average annual increase of $122 million in economic activity in the state (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers) over a four-year engineering/construction period.  The engineering/construction phase will provide a total of 3,900 person-years of employment for Arizona workers.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income resulting from the economic activity associated with the engineering/construction phase will provide an average of $45 million per year in additional income to Arizona residents.  The engineering/construction phase will generate almost $6 million per year in revenues during the engineering/construction period for state government.  Over the entire engineering/construction period, impacts will total $489 million in additional demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers, $317 million in gross regional product, $182 million in personal income, and $23 million in state government revenues. Production/Post-Production Phase  Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $907 million per year in economic activity (measured in terms of incremental regional output) in the state over a 20-year production period.  Mine and mill operations will support an average of 2,900 additional jobs for Arizona workers.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an annual average of $218 million in additional income for Arizona residents.  Production activities will generate an average of $32 million per year in incremental state government revenues. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 3 of 56  Over the entire expected production/post-production period, the overall impacts will be $19 billion in additional output, $11 billion in gross regional product, $5 billion in personal income, and $681 million in state government revenues.  The Rosemont Copper Project will have lasting positive effects on the Arizona economy. Permanent changes to the state’s economy would occur as a result of the increased levels of economic activity associated with the development and operation of the Rosemont mine. These changes will result in residual economic impacts in the state after the end of the Project. The forecast results indicate that the level of economic activity would be $111 million per year higher, state residents’ income $96 million per year higher, employment 500 higher, and state government revenues $4 million per year higher than if the Rosemont Copper Project never existed. The United States Construction Phase  Construction of the Project will generate an average annual increase of $568 million in economic activity in the nation (measured in terms of demand for goods and services) over a four-year engineering/construction period.  The engineering/construction phase will provide a total of 11,600 person-years of employment for U.S. workers.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income associated with the engineering/construction phase will provide an average of $167 million per year in additional income to U.S. residents.  The engineering/construction phase will generate $53 million per year in additional revenues during the engineering/construction period for the federal government.  Over the entire engineering/construction period, the impacts will total $2.3 billion in additional demand for goods and services, $1.2 million in gross domestic product, $668 million in personal income, and $210 million in federal government revenues. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 4 of 56 Production/Post-Production Phase  Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $1.3 billion per year in economic activity in the nation (measured in terms of incremental output) over a 20-year production period.  Mine and mill operations will support a total of 4,500 additional jobs for U.S. residents.  Wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an annual average of $387 million in additional income to U.S. residents.  Production activities will generate an average of $128 million per year in incremental revenues for the federal government.  Over the entire expected production/post-production period, the overall impacts will be $27 billion in additional output, $15 billion in gross domestic product, $8 billion in personal income, and $3 billion in federal government revenues. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 5 of 56 THE ROSEMONT COPPER PROJECT 1. INTRODUCTION This report summarizes the results of an economic impact analysis of the Rosemont Copper Project, an open-pit mining operation to be developed on a 15,000 acre site in Pima County about 30 miles southeast of Tucson. The analysis employed the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model to estimate the economic impacts of the Project for the Cochise/Pima County/Santa Cruz Counties study area, for the State of Arizona, and for the United States. At prices of $1.75/lb. for copper, $15.00/lb. for molybdenum, and $10.00/ounce for silver, combined proven and probable sulfide mineral reserves total nearly 546 million tons grading 0.45 percent copper, 0.015 percent molybdenum, and 0.12 ounces/ton silver. Proven and probable oxide mineral reserves total about 70 million tons grading 0.17 percent copper. Contained metal in the sulfide mineral reserves (proven and probable) is estimated to be 4.9 billion pounds of copper, 161 million pounds of molybdenum, and 65 million ounces of silver. Contained metal in the proven and probable oxide mineral reserves is estimated to be 241 million pounds of copper. The mining operation is projected to produce more than 200 million pounds of copper per year. In addition to copper, it is also projected to produce an average of 4.7 million pounds of molybdenum and 2.7 million ounces of silver per year (M3 Engineering and Technology Corp.). The total cost of developing the site for mining and construction of the processing facilities will be $897 million (2008$). When in operation, employment will average 406 per year, and total annual production costs will average $301 million per year during the 20-year production period (M3 Engineering and Technology Corp.). Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 6 of 56 1.1 Summary of the Results: Engineering/Construction Phase The results of the economic impact analysis indicate that the engineering/construction phase will generate an average annual increase of $96 million in economic activity in the three-county study area (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from local suppliers) and will provide a total of 3,600 person-years of employment for local workers during a four-year engineering/construction period. The jobs and non-labor income (dividends, interest, rent, proprietors’ income, and net profits) produced by the economic activity will also provide an average of $38 million per year in additional income to area residents and $5 million per year in incremental revenues to local governments in the study area. Over the entire engineering/construction period, impacts will total $385 million in additional demand for goods and services, $245 million in gross regional product, $152 million in personal income, and $18 million in local government revenues. For the State of Arizona, the economic impact analysis estimates that the engineering/construction phase will generate an average annual increase of $122 million in economic activity in the state (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers) and will provide a total of 3,900 person-years of employment for Arizona workers during a four-year engineering/construction period. The jobs and non-labor income resulting from the economic activity will also provide an average of $45 million per year in additional income to state residents and $6 million per year in incremental state government revenues. Over the entire engineering/construction period, the impacts will total $489 million in additional demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers, $317 million in gross regional product, $182 million in personal income, and $23 million in state government revenues. For the U.S. economy, the engineering/construction phase will generate an average annual increase of $568 million in economic activity in the nation and will provide a total of 11,600 person-years of employment for U.S. workers during a four-year engineering/construction period. The jobs and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will also provide an average of $167 million per year in additional income to U.S. residents and $53 million per year Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 7 of 56 in incremental revenues to the federal government. Over the entire engineering/construction period, impacts will total $2.3 billion in additional demand for goods and services, $1.2 billion in gross domestic product, $668 million in personal income, and $210 million in federal government revenues. 1.2 Summary of Results: Production/Post-Production Phase The productive life of the Rosemont Copper Project is projected to be 20+ years. Based on the cost analysis in the feasibility study, the total costs associated with the production/postproduction phase of the Project, including reclamation and costs related to closure of the mine will total over $6 billion. For the three-county study area, production activities will generate an average annual increase of $701 million in economic activity (measured in terms of incremental regional output) and will support an average of 2,100 jobs for residents of the study area. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $143 million per year in additional income to area residents and $19 million per year in incremental revenues to local governments in the region. Over the entire expected life of the Project, the overall impacts will be $15 billion in additional output, $8 billion in gross regional product, $3 billion in personal income, and $404 million in local government revenues. For the State of Arizona, production activities will generate an average annual increase of $907 million in economic activity and will support an average of 2,900 jobs for Arizona workers. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $218 million per year in additional income for state residents and $32 million per year in incremental state government revenues. Over the entire expected life of the Project, the overall impacts will be $19 billion in additional output, $11 billion in gross regional product, $5 billion in personal income, and $681 million in state government revenues. For the nation, production activities will generate an average annual increase of $1.3 billion in economic activity and will support an average of 4,500 jobs for U.S. residents. The wages and Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 8 of 56 salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $387 million per year in additional income to U.S. residents and $128 million per year in incremental federal government revenues. Over the entire expected life of the Project, overall impacts will be $27 billion in additional output, $15 billion in gross domestic product, $8 billion in personal income, and $3 billion in federal government revenues. 1.3 Comparison of Results with the Previous Analysis Based on a Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area All three parts of the economic impact analysis were prepared using the latest version of the REMI regional economic forecasting model. The Seidman Institute previously conducted a similar analysis of the economic impact of the Rosemont Copper Project based on a two-county study area comprised of Pima and Santa Cruz Counties (Seidman Institute 2009). That study did not include impact analyses for the state or for the nation. The earlier analysis employed a different version of the REMI model. As a consequence of using the new version of the REMI model, the results for the three-county study area are not consistent with the previous estimates reported for the two-county study area. The estimated impacts for the engineering/construction phase are all substantially higher than the numbers reported in the previous study. For the production/post production phase, the employment, income-related, and government revenue numbers are higher, while output and gross regional product are somewhat lower than the earlier estimates. Regional Economic Models Inc., the builder of the REMI model, has been in business for nearly 30 years and has a policy of continually updating their economic impact models based on the latest available data and advances in economic analysis and econometric methods. The model used for this analysis incorporates many changes to the previous version – including changes to both individual equations and to its overall structure. The parameters in the model have been re-estimated using a modified and updated dataset that included data through 2007. In addition, the economic forecasts incorporated into the new model were updated to reflect more recent views on future economic trends. The sum of these changes has resulted in somewhat Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 9 of 56 different results compared with the previous analysis. The fact that the numbers are different should be interpreted in that context rather than in terms of which numbers are “right.” The results of the current analysis should be taken as reasonable estimates of the economic impact of the Rosemont Copper Project produced by a state-of-the-art regional forecasting model based on the current state of the local, state, and national economies. 2. Economic/Financial Overview The following discussion is based upon economic and financial information contained in the Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study (M3 Engineering and Technology Corp.). All dollar-denominated figures in this report are stated in terms of 2008$ to be consistent with the cost/financial data in the feasibility study. The total cost of construction is estimated to be $897 million. The cost figures for the construction and development of the site for mining as reported in the feasibility study are summarized in Table 1. Expenditures for goods and services, payrolls, and tax payments associated with the engineering/construction phase will total $881 million over a four-year period. Table 2 lists the total and yearly expenditures for the engineering/construction phase. The productive life of the Rosemont Copper Project is projected to be 20+ years. Based on the cost analysis presented in the updated feasibility study, the total costs associated with the production/post-production phase of the Project, including reclamation and costs related to closure of the mine will total over $6 billion. Table 3 summarizes the cost figures for a representative year during the production phase as reported in the feasibility study. The total cost figure translates to $5.1 billion in expenditures for goods and services, payrolls, and government payments -- or approximately $252 million per year over the 20-year production period. Table 2 lists the total and yearly expenditures during the production/post-production phase of the Project. These figures include spending associated with the mining operations, processing of the ore, maintenance/replacement of facilities and equipment, reclamation, administration, taxes, and other outlays, but do not include accounting cost components such as salvage value and depreciation. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 10 of 56 Table 1: Rosemont Copper Project - Construction Costs (Millions of 2008$) Cost Category Site Development Mine Oxide Plant Sulfide Plant Power/Water Systems Ancillary Facilities 8.5 214.6 53.6 327.3 82.0 26.9 Total Direct Cost 712.7 Indirect Costs (Field mobilization, EPCM, taxes, commissioning, spare parts, contingency funds, etc.) 184.4 Total Costs 897.2 Column may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Table 1-40, Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study, 2009 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 11 of 56 Table 2: Rosemont Copper Project - Total Expenditures by Year (Millions 2008$) Engineering/Construction Phase Total Annual Average* Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 PP2 PP1 Production Phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Post-Production Phase 21 22 23 Production/Post-Production Phase 880.6 220.2 5,138.2 252.2 60.1 272.5 488.9 8.7 37.6 59.1 231.5 275.6 262.9 276.9 279.5 281.3 280.4 261.8 255.7 263.1 274.4 240.4 260.1 261.2 252.5 235.4 211.8 213.1 221.1 205.7 42.9 3.9 0.9 *Annual average value for the Production/Post-Production Phase refers to years 1 - 20 when full production activity will occur. Columns may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Computed from information in the Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study, 2009 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 12 of 56 Table 3: Rosemont Copper Project - Annual Production Costs (Millions of 2008$) Cost Category For Year 2 Mine Operations Processing - Mill Processing - SXEW Other Operating Costs Shipping, Refining, and Smelting Taxes/Royalty Pre-production Mining Costs Reclamation Costs Other Costs/Salvage Value Depreciation 70.1 91.5 18.4 9.0 62.4 30.8 2.9 0.8 -2.1 173.4 Total Production Costs 457.1 The cost figures include financial and accounting cost components not included in the annual expenditure figures reported in Table 2. Column may not add to total due to rounding. Source: Table 1-53, Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study, 2009 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 13 of 56 3. Economic Impacts Economic impacts are measured as changes in economic activity attributable to an event or policy change. Economists distinguish between direct impacts and total impacts. The direct impacts are changes in the economy that are the direct result of the event or policy change. In this study, the event being analyzed is the Rosemont Copper Project and the direct impacts of the construction and operation of the Project will be the purchases of goods and services from suppliers, the wages and salaries paid to mine employees, and the taxes and other payments to governments. The total impacts of the Project will be the final changes in the area economy after all of the indirect effects caused by the direct impacts have worked their way through the economy. Conventionally, the total impacts are measured by the additional economic activity that occurs as a result of the event or policy change – in terms of economic measures such as output, income, employment, etc. The estimates of the direct impacts and of the total impacts have been produced by very different methods. The direct impacts have been calculated from information in the Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study in combination with other data from secondary sources. The total economic impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project were estimated using three different versions of the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. These computer models were developed by Regional Economic Models Inc. for use by a consortium of Arizona state agencies, including Arizona State University. The estimates of the direct impacts were used as inputs to the process, and the REMI models generated detailed estimates of the total economic impacts. The methodology and data used to develop the estimates of the direct impacts and the operation of the REMI PI+ model are described in the Technical Appendix. The economic impacts for the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties study area were estimated using a county-level version of the Arizona-specific REMI PI+ model. The economic impacts of the Project for the State of Arizona were estimated using a state-level version of the model, and the impacts for the U.S. economy were estimated using a national version of the REMI PI+ model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 14 of 56 3.1 Direct Impacts 3.1.1 Engineering/Construction Phase Total spending associated with the engineering/construction phase will be $881 million. However, much of the equipment and specialized services to be purchased is not produced within the three-county study area or the State of Arizona. The total expenditures for goods and services from local suppliers in Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties (including the local share of the value of equipment ordered through local suppliers but produced elsewhere) are estimated at $205 million. Annual spending levels over the four-year engineering/construction period in the three-county study area are shown in Table 4. Most of these expenditures would be focused in the construction, mining support, and business services sectors. At the statewide level, total purchases of goods and services from Arizona suppliers would be slightly higher at $221 million. Annual expenditures in Arizona for the four-year engineering/construction period are listed in Table 5. Again, most of these expenditures would occur in the construction, mining support, and business services sectors. 3.1.2 Production/Post-Production Phase Total direct spending associated with the production/post-production phase (including reclamation and mine closure activities) will be more than $5.1 billion over a 25-year period. These expenditures will produce the following direct economic impacts within the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties study area: $1.5 billion in purchases of goods and services from local suppliers (shown as non-labor expenditures); an average of 406 jobs and $438 million in wages and salaries paid to area workers; and $132 million in revenues to local area governments. The annual figures for each of these measures are shown in Table 4. The direct economic impacts of the production/post-production phase for the State of Arizona will produce substantially larger amounts of purchases of goods and services from Arizona Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 15 of 56 Table 4: Rosemont Copper Project - Direct Impacts by Year Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions 2008$) Total Production/Post-Production Expenditures Engineering/ Construction Non-Labor Expenditures Expenditures Total Annual Average* 204.9 51.2 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 14.2 PP2 63.1 PP1 113.8 Production Phase 1 13.9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Post-Production Phase 21 22 23 Wages & Salaries Local Government Revenues Employment 2,101.1 100.8 1,531.4 74.4 437.8 20.2 132.0 6.2 406 11.2 39.9 4.8 20.7 5.4 17.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 158 341 96.5 106.9 103.1 103.7 104.1 106.0 103.6 98.6 103.5 106.0 109.2 101.8 105.9 106.2 104.6 97.5 89.1 89.3 90.6 88.8 69.9 79.9 76.8 76.7 77.7 79.2 76.8 72.3 75.8 78.0 80.8 74.3 77.7 77.7 75.9 72.9 65.6 65.7 67.5 66.1 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 17.9 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.5 5.7 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.2 6.6 7.0 6.6 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.2 6.8 6.2 421 422 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 444 444 444 444 444 354 326 326 326 326 33.4 1.1 0.1 17.4 1.1 0.1 11.5 4.4 326 *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20 when full production activities will occur. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Computed from information in the results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 16 of 56 Table 5: Rosemont Copper Project - Direct Impacts by Year State of Arizona (Millions 2008$) Total Production/Post-Production Expenditures Engineering/ Construction Non-Labor Expenditures Expenditures Total Annual Average* 221.4 55.4 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 15.3 PP2 68.1 PP1 123.0 Production Phase 1 15.0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Post-Production Phase 21 22 23 Wages & Salaries State Government Revenues Employment 2,584.9 124.1 1,922.3 92.9 437.8 20.2 224.8 11.0 406 14.9 52.6 9.5 34.6 5.4 17.2 0.0 0.9 158 341 118.4 132.5 127.5 129.1 129.5 132.2 128.4 120.9 128.3 132.4 137.5 123.8 131.1 131.4 128.1 118.9 107.2 107.7 110.5 106.6 89.3 100.9 98.8 98.1 100.8 102.0 98.1 91.5 94.4 97.3 103.1 92.9 97.8 96.7 93.0 88.2 77.0 77.0 81.2 79.6 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 17.9 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.5 8.2 10.7 7.7 10.0 7.6 9.2 9.3 8.3 12.8 14.0 12.4 9.0 11.4 12.8 13.2 12.7 13.8 14.3 13.0 10.6 421 422 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 444 444 444 444 444 354 326 326 326 326 32.8 1.1 0.1 18.3 2.2 0.3 11.5 2.9 326 *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20 when full production activities will occur. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Computed from information in the results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 17 of 56 suppliers – $1.9 billion – and $225 million in state government revenues. The annual figures for the direct impacts for the State of Arizona are shown in Table 5. 3.2 Total Impacts This section summarizes the results from the REMI model. The total impacts of the Project are measured in terms of:  Output – The dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region.  Gross Regional Product – The dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demand in the region. It excludes the value of intermediate goods and services purchased as inputs to final production.  Personal Income – The total income received by residents of the region from all sources.  Total Employment – the number of full- and part-time jobs by place of work.  Government Revenues – taxes and other payments received by the region’s government(s). 3.2.1 Engineering /Construction Phase 3.2.1.A Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties The development of the Rosemont Copper Project site over a four-year engineering/construction period will produce substantial benefits for the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties study area. It will generate an average annual increase of $96 million in economic activity in the area (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from local suppliers) and will provide a total of 3,600 person-years of employment for local workers. The wages and salaries and non-labor income (dividends, interest, rent, proprietors’ income and net profits) produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $38 million per year in additional income to area residents and $5 million per year in incremental revenues to local governments in the region. Over the entire engineering/construction period, these impacts are equivalent to $385 million in additional demand for goods and services from local suppliers, Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 18 of 56 $245 million in gross regional product, $152 million in personal income, and $18 million in local government revenues (Table 6). The economic impacts of the engineering/construction phase of the Rosemont Copper Project will not be confined to the study area’s mining and construction industries. The overall economic impacts (taking into account the combination of the direct and indirect effects) will be felt across all sectors of its economy. The strongest impacts will be on the construction, manufacturing, trade, business services, and health/social assistance sectors. Appendix tables A1, A2, and A3 show the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. 3.2.1.B The State of Arizona The development of the Rosemont Copper Project site will produce even larger benefits for the State of Arizona. It will generate an average annual increase of $122 million in economic activity in the state (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers) and will provide a total of 3,900 person-years of employment for Arizona workers. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $45 million per year in additional income to state residents and $6 million per year in incremental state government revenues. Over the entire engineering/construction period, these impacts are equivalent to $489 million in additional demand for goods and services from Arizona suppliers, $317 million in gross regional product, $182 million in personal income, and $23 million in state government revenues (Table 7). The economic impacts of the engineering/construction phase of the Rosemont Copper Project will not be confined to Arizona’s mining and construction industries. The overall economic impacts (accounting for both the direct and indirect effects) will be felt across all sectors of its economy. The strongest impacts would be on the construction, manufacturing, trade, and business services sectors. Appendix tables A4, A5, and A6 list the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 19 of 56 Table 6: Rosemont Copper Project - Engineering/Construction Phase - Total Impacts by Year Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions 2008$) Output Total* Annual Average Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment Local Government Revenues 385.4 96.4 245.4 61.3 151.5 37.9 3,627 907 18.0 4.5 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 25.2 PP2 114.2 PP1 207.8 Production Phase 1 38.2 15.8 72.0 130.9 9.0 41.7 77.3 245 1,089 1,930 1.2 5.3 9.7 26.7 23.6 363 1.8 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well as value added. Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. * Total figure for employment is measured in terms of person-years of employment. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 20 of 56 Table 7: Rosemont Copper Project - Engineering/Construction Phase - Total Impacts by Year State of Arizona (Millions 2008$) Output Total* Annual Average Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment State Government Revenues 489.4 122.4 316.8 79.2 181.5 45.4 3,909 977 23.2 5.8 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 31.6 PP2 144.1 PP1 263.8 Production Phase 1 49.9 20.2 92.6 169.4 10.8 50.0 93.1 263 1,172 2,086 1.5 6.9 12.5 34.7 27.7 388 2.2 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well and value added (compensation and profit). Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. * Total figure for employment is measured in terms of person-years of employment. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 21 of 56 3.2.1.C The United States The development of the Rosemont Copper Project site will also produce substantial benefits to the national economy. It will generate an average annual increase of $568 million in economic activity (measured in terms of demand for goods and services from U.S. suppliers) and will provide a total of 11,600 person-years of employment for U.S. workers. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $167 million per year in additional income to U.S. residents and $53 million per year in incremental revenues to the federal government. Over the entire engineering/construction period, these impacts are equivalent to $2.3 billion in additional demand for goods and services, $1.2 billion in gross domestic product, $668 million in personal income, and $210 million in federal government revenues (Table 8). The overall economic impacts (taking into account the combination of the direct and indirect effects) will be distributed broadly across all sectors of the U.S. economy. The strongest impacts would be on the manufacturing, trade, and business services sectors. Appendix tables A7, A8, and A9 show the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. 3.2.2 Production/Post-Production Phase The economic benefits associated with the operation of the Rosemont Mine will be much larger in scale than those generated by its construction for all three levels of geography. 3.2.2.A Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $701 million in economic activity (measured in terms of incremental regional output) within the three-county study area and will provide an average of 2,100 jobs for area residents. The wages and salaries and nonlabor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $143 million per Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 22 of 56 Table 8: Rosemont Copper Project - Engineering/Construction Phase - Total Impacts by Year United States of America (Millions 2008$) Output Total* Annual Average Gross Domestic Product Personal Income Employment Federal Government Revenues 2,272.9 568.2 1,207.1 301.8 667.5 166.9 11,560 2,890 210.1 52.5 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 157.9 PP2 705.8 PP1 1,270.5 Production Phase 1 138.8 81.3 370.8 674.7 39.2 191.2 357.0 840 3,669 6,386 14.2 64.6 117.5 80.2 80.1 665 14.0 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well and value added. Gross domestic product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. * Total figure for employment is measured in terms of person-years of employment. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 23 of 56 year in additional income to area residents and $19 million per year in incremental revenues to local governments in the study area. (All measured over the 20-year production period.) Over the entire production/post-production period, these impacts are equivalent to $15 billion in additional output, $8 billion in gross regional product, $3 billion in personal income, and $404 million in local government revenues (Table 9). The economic impacts of the production/post-production phase of the Rosemont Copper Project will not be confined to the mining industry. The overall economic impacts (taking into account both the direct and indirect effects) will be felt across all sectors of the study area’s economy. The strongest impacts would be on the mining, utility, manufacturing, trade, real estate/rental/leasing, and business services sectors. Appendix tables A10, A11, and A12 show the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. 3.2.2.B The State of Arizona Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $907 million in economic activity (measured in terms of incremental output) within the State of Arizona and will provide an average of 2,900 jobs for state residents. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $218 million per year in additional income to state residents and $32 million per year in incremental state government revenues. (All measured over the 20-year production period.) Over the entire production/postproduction period, these impacts are equivalent to $19 billion in additional output, $11 billion in gross regional product, $5 billion in personal income, and $681 million in state government revenues (Table 10). The economic impacts of the production/post-production phase of the Rosemont Copper Project will not be confined to the state’s mining industry. The overall economic impacts (taking into account the combination of direct and indirect effects) will be widely distributed across all sectors of the Arizona economy. The strongest impacts would be on the mining, utility, construction, manufacturing, trade, real estate/rental/leasing, and business services sectors. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 24 of 56 Table 9: Rosemont Copper Project - Production/Post-Production Phase - Total Impacts by Year Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions 2008$) Output Total Annual Average* 14,649.7 701.3 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 PP2 65.0 PP1 166.9 Production Phase 1 620.4 2 812.2 3 664.5 4 741.1 5 656.7 6 718.6 7 731.0 8 733.1 9 725.7 10 747.1 11 717.6 12 594.3 13 684.7 14 731.6 15 738.5 16 694.4 17 697.7 18 716.0 19 690.7 20 609.6 Post-Production Phase 21 286.5 22 57.3 23 48.6 Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment Local Government Revenues 8,053.9 382.5 3,205.0 142.5 2,144 404.0 18.8 39.8 100.9 20.7 47.6 526 1,167 2.3 5.8 338.3 433.4 364.9 401.2 362.9 391.6 396.4 395.0 394.4 405.2 393.7 336.4 378.7 400.6 404.0 379.2 376.9 385.1 374.6 338.2 93.1 109.3 112.6 120.2 123.7 130.4 134.1 135.9 142.6 148.0 154.4 152.7 159.6 165.2 169.0 159.7 156.3 158.8 162.2 161.7 2,080 2,258 2,211 2,239 2,214 2,234 2,215 2,157 2,206 2,235 2,291 2,194 2,251 2,271 2,266 2,012 1,892 1,891 1,901 1,861 15.8 17.5 16.8 17.7 17.3 18.0 18.1 17.4 19.3 20.0 20.2 19.1 20.2 20.9 21.2 19.6 19.3 19.6 19.5 18.9 177.0 46.2 39.2 139.8 77.3 70.1 1,495 438 369 14.4 2.7 2.3 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well as value added. Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20 when full production activity will occur. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 25 of 56 Table 10: Rosemont Copper Project - Production/Post-Production Phase - Total Impacts by Year State of Arizona (Millions 2008$) Output Total Annual Average* 19,206.2 907.1 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 PP2 113.3 PP1 280.2 Production Phase 1 798.9 2 1,008.5 3 854.9 4 940.6 5 851.4 6 918.1 7 930.0 8 923.1 9 934.6 10 966.0 11 943.4 12 803.0 13 905.0 14 959.2 15 968.7 16 901.8 17 899.0 18 921.9 19 900.0 20 813.0 Post-Production Phase 21 450.0 22 119.8 23 101.9 Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment State Government Revenues 10,833.3 508.5 4,896.5 218.1 2,946 681.4 31.9 68.4 166.0 35.4 78.9 724 1,591 4.2 11.1 444.7 553.0 477.1 522.2 477.5 510.7 515.6 506.4 524.4 543.1 532.6 460.4 512.4 540.8 546.4 509.0 505.9 517.6 506.7 463.1 146.0 171.5 172.8 187.2 188.0 198.3 203.2 201.5 220.2 231.3 238.5 228.8 240.4 250.9 257.4 242.8 240.9 246.5 249.8 245.4 2,847 3,145 2,966 3,082 2,942 3,005 2,974 2,819 3,078 3,170 3,180 2,905 3,048 3,127 3,131 2,806 2,710 2,731 2,696 2,559 25.6 29.9 26.7 29.7 27.3 29.4 29.5 28.1 33.8 35.7 35.1 30.8 34.1 36.2 36.9 34.0 34.0 35.0 34.1 31.6 274.2 83.9 71.0 209.5 111.7 99.6 1,981 632 525 19.4 4.9 4.2 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well and value added (compensation and profit). Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20 when full production activity will occur. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 26 of 56 Appendix tables A13, A14, and A15 present the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. 3.2.2.C The United States Production activities will generate an average annual increase of $1.3 billion in economic activity for the nation and will provide an average of 4,500 jobs for U.S. residents. The wages and salaries and non-labor income produced by the economic activity will provide an average of $387 million per year in additional income to U.S. residents and $128 million per year in incremental revenues for the federal government. (All measured over the 20-year production period.) Over the entire production/post-production period, these impacts are equivalent to $27 billion in additional output, $15 billion in gross domestic product, $8 billion in personal income, and $3 billion in federal government revenues (Table 11). The overall economic impacts (accounting for both the direct and indirect effects) will be widely distributed across all sectors of the U.S. economy. The strongest impacts would be on the utility, manufacturing, trade, finance/insurance, and business services sectors. Appendix tables A16, A17, and A18 show the incremental private-sector economic activity in each of 19 major industries in terms of output, employment, and earnings respectively. 4. Concluding Observations 4.1 Population Changes Unlike most other regional economic impact models, REMI is a dynamic model that produces integrated multiyear forecasts and accounts for dynamic feedbacks among its economic and demographic variables. As such, it provides forecasts of the demographic impacts of the development and operation of the Rosemont mine in addition to forecasts of economic variables. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 27 of 56 Table 11: Rosemont Copper Project - Production/Post-Production Phase - Total Impacts by Year United States of America (Millions 2008$) Output Total Annual Average* 27,267.7 1,309.4 Year Engineering/Construction Phase PP3 PP2 166.1 PP1 477.7 Production Phase 1 1,213.9 2 1,489.9 3 1,254.3 4 1,372.2 5 1,247.0 6 1,342.9 7 1,334.0 8 1,256.9 9 1,389.5 10 1,447.2 11 1,422.8 12 1,161.6 13 1,320.6 14 1,399.6 15 1,383.1 16 1,273.1 17 1,252.2 18 1,290.3 19 1,259.3 20 1,078.2 Post-Production Phase 21 497.3 22 -28.8 23 -33.4 Gross Domestic Product Personal Income Employment Federal Government Revenues 15,283.3 732.4 8,345.3 387.2 4,500 2,660.5 127.5 89.9 254.2 56.2 146.8 964 2,503 15.6 44.3 658.5 814.7 676.3 755.2 674.5 732.1 729.7 664.0 788.4 830.7 805.1 647.4 742.9 794.1 789.0 728.9 728.7 750.7 722.7 614.7 291.3 349.2 317.5 354.8 337.6 362.5 367.2 330.3 414.4 439.3 439.5 381.0 420.6 446.9 450.1 415.8 415.2 425.3 415.1 369.9 4,809 5,467 4,625 4,987 4,457 4,673 4,556 3,898 5,012 5,241 5,058 4,070 4,527 4,748 4,646 4,081 3,992 4,062 3,863 3,228 114.6 141.8 117.7 131.5 117.4 127.4 127.0 115.6 137.2 144.6 140.1 112.7 129.3 138.2 137.3 126.9 126.9 130.7 125.8 107.0 298.7 -1.6 -6.2 266.9 75.0 57.0 1,927 -238 -243 52.0 -0.3 -1.1 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well as value added. Gross domestic product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20 when full production activity will occur. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 28 of 56 The results of the analysis indicate that net migration into the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties study area will increase by more than 300 per year in the early years of operation and then lessen, with an annual average net migration figure of about 150 over the entire 20-year production period. This increase in net migration would mean that the population of the study area would be approximately 2,000 larger after five years and more than 4,000 larger by the end of the production period compared with a situation in which the Rosemont Copper Project was not developed. Similarly, the results of the state-level analysis indicate that net migration into Arizona will increase by more than 500 per year in the early years of operation and then lessen, with an annual average net migration figure of about 230 over the entire 20-year production period. This increase in net migration would mean that the state’s population would be approximately 3,000 larger after five years and 7,000 larger by the end of the production period compared with a situation in which the Rosemont Copper Project had not been developed. 4.2 Residual Impacts Results from the REMI forecasts of economic activity for the years after the closure of the mine show that the Rosemont Copper Project would have lasting effects on the economy of the threecounty study area over and above the impacts during its 26-year ”active” period. Permanent changes to the business community, to the labor market, to local governments, and to many other aspects of the local economy would occur as a result of the development and operations of the Rosemont mine. These changes will result in residual economic impacts in the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties area. The forecast results indicate that the level of economic activity would be $52 million per year higher, area residents’ income $68 million per year higher, employment more than 300 higher, and local government revenues $2 million per year higher than if the Rosemont Copper Project had never existed. Annual figures for each of these measures for the ten years after closure are listed in Table 12. The REMI state-level forecast for years after the closure of the mine show that the Rosemont Copper Project would also have similar lasting effects on the Arizona economy. Permanent Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 29 of 56 Table 12: Rosemont Copper Project - Residual Impacts by Year Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions 2008$) Output Total* Annual Average Year Post-Closure 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment Local Government Revenues 518.4 51.8 382.3 38.2 675.6 67.6 347 22.9 2.3 45.1 44.5 45.4 47.3 50.0 52.7 55.1 57.4 59.5 61.4 36.0 34.9 34.9 35.7 36.9 38.4 39.6 40.9 42.0 43.1 65.9 63.6 62.8 63.1 64.5 66.6 68.6 70.9 73.4 76.2 338 326 325 331 340 350 357 363 368 371 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well as value added. Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. *Total figures refer to the sum of years 24-33. Residual impacts would continue after year 33. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 30 of 56 changes to the business community, to the labor market, to the state government, and to many other aspects of the Arizona economy would occur as a result of economic activity induced by the development and operation of the Rosemont mine, and these changes would result in residual economic impacts within Arizona. The state-level forecast results indicate that the level of economic activity would be $111 million per year higher, the state residents’ income $96 million per year greater, employment 500 higher, and state government revenues $4 million per year higher than if the Rosemont Copper Project had never existed. Annual figures for each of these measures for the ten years after the end of operations are provided in Table 13. Results from the REMI national forecast do not show similar lasting effects for the overall U.S. economy. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 31 of 56 Table 13: Rosemont Copper Project - Residual Impacts by Year State of Arizona (Millions 2008$) Output Total* Annual Average Year Post-Production Phase 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Gross Regional Product Personal Income Employment State Government Revenues 1,111.6 111.2 655.6 65.6 956.4 95.6 498 43.7 4.4 94.8 94.1 97.2 102.0 107.7 113.1 118.8 123.5 128.2 132.3 58.8 57.8 59.0 61.2 63.9 66.4 69.0 71.2 73.4 75.1 92.5 89.2 88.3 89.2 91.3 94.0 97.4 100.8 104.9 109.0 474 458 462 475 490 504 518 526 534 539 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including intermediate goods as well and value added (compensation and profit). Gross regional product is the dollar value of all goods and services produced for final demands. It excludes intermediate goods and services. Personal income is the total income received by residents from all sources. *Total figures refer to the sum of years 24-33. Residual impacts would continue after year 33. Columns may not add due to rounding. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 32 of 56 REFERENCES Arizona Department of Commerce (2009) 2008 Arizona Workforce Employment Report. Arizona Department of Revenue (2008) FY2008 Annual Report. Global Insight (2009) U. S. Economic Outlook: September 2009. L. William Seidman Research Institute (2009) An Assessment of the Economic Impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project. M3 Engineering & Technology Corp. (2009) Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study. Regional Economic Models Inc. (2007) REMI Policy Insight 9.5: Users Guide. Regional Economic Models Inc. (2009) Introduction to PI+: The Next Generation of Policy Insight. Regional Economic Models Inc. (2009) PI+: Changes from Policy Insight v9.5. Tetra Tech Inc. (2008) Rosemont Copper Project: Mined Land Reclamation Plan. Treyz, George (1993) Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Kluwer Academic Press. U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2009) State Personal Income and Employment Database. (www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm#state) U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2007) U.S. Benchmark Input-Output Accounts. U. S. Census Bureau (2009) State and Local Government Finances Database. (www. census.gov/govs/www/estimate.html) Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 33 of 56 U. S. Census Bureau (2009) 2009 Statistical Abstract. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2009) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Database. (www.bls.gov/cew) WestLand Resources Inc. (2007) Mine Plan of Operations: Rosemont Project. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 34 of 56 TECHNICAL APPENDIX A1. Economic Impact Analysis Using the REMI Model This study used the REMI PI+ regional forecasting model to produce numeric estimates of the economic impacts associated with the construction, operation, and closure of the Rosemont mine. The general method for estimating impacts using the REMI model involves 4 steps: 1. Preparation of a baseline or control forecast for the study area – this baseline scenario provides a forecast of the future path of the study area’s economy based on a combination of the extrapolation of current economic conditions and an exogenous forecast of relevant economic variables without any changes in public policy or other external factors. 2. Development of a policy scenario – this policy scenario describes the direct effects that the event(s) – in this case the construction, operation, and closure of the Rosemont mine would have on the study area’s economy. 3. Preparation of a forecast simulation of the area economy based on the policy scenario – this alternative forecast provides a forecast of the future path of the area economy incorporating the effects of the changes specified in the policy scenario. 4. Comparison of the baseline and policy scenario forecasts – the differences between the future values of each variable in the forecasts provide numeric estimates of the nature and magnitudes of the economic impacts of Rosemont Copper Project on the study area. A2. The REMI Model REMI is an economic-demographic forecasting and simulation model developed by Regional Economic Models Inc. REMI is designed to forecast the impact of public policies and external events on an economy and its population. The REMI model is recognized by the business and academic community as the leading regional forecast/simulation tool available. A complete explanation of the model and discussion of the empirical estimation of the parameters/equations are given in Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 35 of 56 Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis (Treyz), Policy Insight 9.5: Model Documentation (REMI), Introduction to PI+: The Next Generation of Policy Insight (REMI), and PI+: Changes from Policy Insight v9.5 (REMI). The REMI models used for this analysis were all versions of Policy Insight Model PI+ Version 1.1 leased from Regional Economic Models Inc. by a consortium of State agencies, including Arizona State University, for economic forecasting and policy analysis. A3. Updating of the Baseline or Control Forecast The PI+ v 1.1 models were delivered with national and local datasets containing data through 2007 and also with national and local baseline forecasts prepared by Regional Economic Models Inc. The REMI model incorporates procedures for updating the datasets and the baseline forecasts with more recent data. The research team performed these procedures to prepare updated baseline forecasts for this study. In practice, the methodology requires first updating the national baseline forecast since forecast values of national economic variables are important inputs to the state-level and county-level forecasts. The national forecast was updated by using 2008 data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and forecast data for the 2009–2017 period from the latest available Global Insight national forecast (September 2009). The baseline forecast of the Arizona model was updated based on 2008 employment data from the Arizona Department of Commerce. A4. Definition of the Local Study Area REMI is a county-based model, so that the study area must be defined in terms of one or more Arizona counties. The site on which the Rosemont Copper Project is being developed is located in Pima County southeast of the Tucson urbanized area, near the border with Santa Cruz County, and also in relatively close proximity to Cochise County. The approved bounds of analysis for the environment impact assessment have been defined by the U.S. Forest Service to include three counties – Cochise, Pima, and Santa Cruz Counties. Based on this definition, the Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 36 of 56 combined three-county region was specified as the study area for the county-level REMI economic impact analysis. A5. Definition of the Study Period REMI is a dynamic model that produces integrated multiyear forecasts. The analysis of the economic impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project has employed this feature of the model. The feasibility study provides annual information relating to both capital and operating costs for the projected lifetime of the Project. The timeline for the Project in the study includes three preproduction years (designated years PP3 through PP1 in this report), a production period of 20 years (designated years 1 through 20), and a post-production period of three years (years 21 through 23). The first year of the post-production period (Year 21) includes some production activity during the first part of the year. The economic impact analysis of the construction phase provides estimates of the impacts over the four-year engineering/construction period specified in the feasibility study (year PP3 to year 1). The analysis of the production/post-production phase encompasses a 25-year period (years PP2 through year 23). The REMI model requires specification of calendar year time periods for its forecast process. Based on a timeline on the Rosemont Copper Project website, the study period starting date (PP3) was assumed to be 2009. A6. Calculation of the Direct Impacts All of the estimates of the direct impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project were based on the economic and financial information contained in the Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study (M3 Engineering and Technology Corp.). Information from two other reports relating to the Rosemont Copper Project was also used to supplement the information in the feasibility study:  Data relating to reclamation costs from the Mined Land Reclamation Plan (Tetra Tech Inc).  Information relating to various aspects of construction and operation from the Mine Plan of Operations (WestLand Resources Inc). Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 37 of 56 The REMI model requires input data in very specific formats. In particular, the data must conform to the 70 economic sectors in the model. In many cases the economic data provided by the feasibility study and the other two reports were not sufficiently detailed to be used directly as inputs for the REMI model. Detailed data from the direct requirements table in the U.S. Benchmark Input-Output Accounts (U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) were used to convert the information into a form usable by the model. The direct requirements coefficients for each industry specify the dollar amount of inputs from each supplying industry needed to produce a dollar of industry output. A7. Government Revenues Estimates of revenues received by each of the three levels of government from Rosemont Copper operations were based on tax information contained in the Rosemont Copper Project Updated Feasibility Study. The share of state transactions privilege tax, severance tax, and income tax collections distributed to the area local governments was calculated from data in the Arizona Department of Revenue FY2008 Annual Report. Estimates of revenues received by area local governments and the state government as a result of the incremental economic activity induced by Rosemont Copper operations and/or construction activities were based on ratios of collections per dollar of gross regional product calculated from data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s State and Local Government Finances database. Estimates of revenues received by the federal government as a result of the incremental economic activity induced by Rosemont Copper operations and/or construction activities were based on ratios of collections per dollar of gross domestic product calculated from data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2009 Statistical Abstract. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 38 of 56 A8. Inconsistencies in the Results across the Three Regions The economic impacts for the Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties study area were estimated using a county-level version of the Arizona-specific REMI PI+ model. The economic impacts of the Project for the State of Arizona were estimated using a state-level version of the model, and the impacts for the U.S. economy were estimated using a national version of the REMI PI+ model. The three sets of economic impact estimates were based on the same input data relating to the direct impacts of the construction and operation of the Mine, but were calculated independently using the three different versions of the REMI PI+ model. Logically, the magnitude of the economic impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project with respect to the three-county study area should have been smaller than the impacts on the Arizona economy, because at least some of the activity associated with the Project would be expected to affect the economies of Arizona communities outside the study area – particularly the Metro Phoenix area. Similarly, the magnitude of the Project’s impacts on the Arizona economy should have been smaller than the impacts measured for the U. S. economy, since many of the goods and services needed for the construction and operation of the Rosemont Mine would be supplied by economic agents located outside Arizona. Comparison of equivalent economic measures across the three levels of geography shows that this was true in most cases. In a few specific instances, however, the estimated values of the economic impacts across the three geographic levels were not consistent. This situation is due to a combination of two factors: 1. While the structures of the county-level model and state-level model are similar, the equations in the models that specify the relationships between the economic variables were based on different sets of data. The equations in the county-level model were developed based upon county-specific data. The state-level model was developed using state-level information. In general, less economic data are available at the county level than for states, and the county level data are often subject to larger margins of error – this is particularly true for smaller counties, such as two of the three counties in the study area. The numbers produced by the REMI model are “point estimates” of the magnitudes of the economic impacts of the event being evaluated. As with all statistical models based on economic data that are subject to measurement error, the estimates/forecasts produced by such models also have margins of error. Given the relative quality of the data used to develop the county-level versus statelevel models, the estimates produced by the county-level model can be expected to have larger margins of error. Seidman Research Institute, W. P. Carey School of Business Supplemental Page 38a Factor #1 also applies in the comparison of county and state models versus national models. Information relating to the national economy is much more prevalent and generally of higher quality than sub-national data. In addition, there is another factor leading to inconsistencies between the U. S. numbers and the county and state results. 2. The U. S. numbers in the report were produced using a national version of the REMI PI+ model that is included as part of the county/state models. Although it can be used to evaluate the national level economic impact of events such as the construction/operation of the Rosemont Mine, it was primarily included in the state-level model to allow researchers to develop alternative national forecasts as inputs to the state model. As such, the structure is somewhat different that the county/state-level models used to produce the other two sets of estimates. These differences meant that (a) the input data specifying the direct impacts of the Rosemont Copper Project had to be reformulated for use in the national model, and (b) the format of results produced by the national model was somewhat different and not as detailed as that in the county/state level models. Seidman Research Institute, W. P. Carey School of Business Supplemental Page 38b Appendix Table A1: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Output by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 385.4 0.0 0.2 4.9 80.7 104.4 9.7 21.0 2.5 6.0 12.2 24.2 71.0 2.2 9.9 0.9 21.0 1.8 5.6 7.1 Annual Average 96.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 20.2 26.1 2.4 5.3 0.6 1.5 3.1 6.0 17.8 0.6 2.5 0.2 5.3 0.4 1.4 1.8 PP3 PP2 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.9 7.4 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 4.7 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 114.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 22.9 32.2 2.9 6.0 0.7 1.7 3.9 6.6 21.5 0.7 2.9 0.2 6.4 0.5 1.5 2.1 PP1 207.8 0.0 0.1 2.5 42.8 58.3 5.2 10.9 1.3 3.1 6.7 12.3 38.9 1.2 5.3 0.4 11.2 0.9 2.8 3.8 1 38.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.0 6.6 1.0 2.9 0.3 0.8 0.8 3.8 5.9 0.2 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well as value added. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 39 of 56 Appendix Table A2: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area Industry/Year Private Non-farm Employment Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Annual Average 789 0 0 2 196 103 15 64 6 5 20 38 166 5 46 6 51 12 26 31 PP3 PP2 212 0 0 0 50 31 4 17 2 1 6 9 46 1 12 1 14 3 6 9 PP1 948 0 0 2 227 130 18 75 7 6 27 42 204 6 55 6 61 14 29 39 1 1,686 0 1 3 416 226 31 131 12 11 44 77 363 11 98 11 106 26 53 66 311 0 0 1 91 23 5 32 2 2 4 24 50 1 17 4 21 6 17 11 Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded. Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 40 of 56 Appendix Table A3: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Earnings by Place of Work by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total, Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 149.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 31.1 32.7 4.1 8.8 1.2 1.8 4.9 1.8 35.8 1.1 5.5 0.6 12.5 0.8 2.5 3.2 Annual Average 37.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.8 8.2 1.0 2.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.5 9.0 0.3 1.4 0.2 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 PP3 PP2 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 42.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.7 9.5 1.2 2.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.5 10.8 0.3 1.5 0.2 3.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 PP1 79.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 16.3 18.1 2.1 4.4 0.6 0.9 2.6 0.9 19.4 0.6 2.8 0.3 6.3 0.4 1.2 1.6 1 18.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2 3.1 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 41 of 56 Appendix Table A4: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Output by Industry State of Arizona (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 489.4 0.0 1.0 6.2 99.5 127.0 20.6 27.2 7.2 9.9 22.9 34.4 70.0 5.6 12.6 1.8 23.8 3.1 7.7 8.8 Annual Average 122.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 24.9 31.7 5.2 6.8 1.8 2.5 5.7 8.6 17.5 1.4 3.1 0.4 6.0 0.8 1.9 2.2 PP3 PP2 31.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.9 8.8 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.6 1.6 2.0 4.6 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 144.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 27.7 38.8 6.1 7.7 2.1 2.9 7.3 9.5 21.2 1.7 3.7 0.5 7.2 0.9 2.1 2.6 PP1 263.8 0.0 0.6 3.2 52.3 70.7 11.1 14.3 3.9 5.3 12.7 17.7 38.3 3.1 6.8 0.9 12.8 1.6 3.9 4.7 1 49.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 13.7 8.7 2.1 3.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 5.2 5.9 0.4 1.2 0.3 2.2 0.4 1.2 0.9 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well and value added (compensation and profit). Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 42 of 56 Appendix Table A5: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry State of Arizona Industry/Year Private Non-farm Employment Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Annual Average 858 1 1 2 199 123 23 72 13 9 30 36 157 7 44 8 53 13 32 38 PP3 PP2 229 0 0 0 49 37 6 19 3 2 9 9 43 2 12 2 14 3 8 11 1,029 1 1 2 226 155 28 85 16 11 39 40 193 9 54 8 64 15 35 47 PP1 1 1,832 1 2 4 418 270 48 150 28 18 66 73 344 15 96 15 113 26 65 80 341 0 0 1 102 30 8 35 5 3 5 22 49 2 15 5 20 6 20 13 Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded. Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 43 of 56 Appendix Table A6: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Earnings by Place of Work by Industry State of Arizona (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total, Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 181.9 0.1 0.5 1.1 37.6 37.5 8.6 11.1 2.9 2.7 8.9 3.2 35.1 2.9 7.1 1.2 13.3 1.3 3.3 3.6 Annual Average 45.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.4 9.4 2.2 2.8 0.7 0.7 2.2 0.8 8.8 0.7 1.8 0.3 3.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 PP3 PP2 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 PP1 52.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.3 11.0 2.4 3.0 0.8 0.8 2.6 0.8 10.6 0.8 2.0 0.3 3.8 0.4 0.9 1.0 1 95.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 19.5 20.6 4.5 5.6 1.5 1.4 4.7 1.6 18.9 1.5 3.7 0.6 6.8 0.7 1.6 1.9 22.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.6 3.5 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.6 3.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.5 Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 44 of 56 Appendix Table A7: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Output by Industry United States of America (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 2,272.9 1.9 82.4 22.2 98.0 1,079.2 115.6 69.2 53.7 77.9 139.5 94.8 179.1 60.3 43.5 6.8 79.0 11.4 24.2 34.4 Annual Average 568.2 0.5 20.6 5.6 24.5 269.8 28.9 17.3 13.4 19.5 34.9 23.7 44.8 15.1 10.9 1.7 19.7 2.9 6.0 8.6 PP3 157.9 0.1 5.8 1.7 6.7 75.2 7.8 5.1 3.7 5.2 9.5 6.8 12.2 4.4 2.9 0.5 5.3 0.8 1.9 2.4 PP2 705.8 0.6 25.5 7.0 28.9 333.8 35.8 22.1 16.9 24.0 43.9 29.5 55.0 18.9 13.4 2.1 26.0 3.6 7.7 11.0 PP1 1,270.5 1.0 45.8 12.2 53.8 602.8 65.1 39.0 29.9 44.3 78.9 52.4 100.1 33.6 24.4 3.8 44.4 6.4 13.4 19.3 1 138.8 0.1 5.3 1.4 8.5 67.4 6.8 3.0 3.2 4.3 7.2 6.1 11.9 3.5 2.9 0.4 3.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well as value added. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 45 of 56 Appendix Table A8: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry United States of America Industry/Year Private Non-farm Employment Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Annual Average 2,862 6 85 6 212 822 127 198 104 50 135 69 327 56 165 28 183 45 96 152 PP3 PP2 832 2 25 2 60 244 38 63 29 15 38 20 91 17 45 8 51 12 29 43 3,634 7 106 8 252 1,045 162 260 132 64 174 87 404 71 206 35 242 58 122 199 PP1 1 6,325 13 186 14 462 1,798 281 439 230 111 301 151 727 124 365 62 410 99 214 338 657 3 21 1 72 199 27 31 24 10 25 16 85 13 42 7 27 9 19 26 Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded. Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 46 of 56 Appendix Table A9: Total Economic Impacts Engineering/Construction Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project Earnings by Place of Work by Industry United States of America (Millions of 2008$) Industry/Year Total, Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Total 770.4 0.9 31.5 4.7 41.1 279.9 45.1 29.3 22.1 23.3 55.2 8.5 96.1 28.3 22.9 4.7 46.0 5.2 10.4 15.4 Annual Average 192.6 0.2 7.9 1.2 10.3 70.0 11.3 7.3 5.5 5.8 13.8 2.1 24.0 7.1 5.7 1.2 11.5 1.3 2.6 3.8 PP3 PP2 50.0 0.1 2.2 0.3 2.7 18.1 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 6.3 2.0 1.4 0.3 2.9 0.3 0.7 1.0 228.6 0.2 9.6 1.4 11.6 83.7 13.2 8.6 6.6 6.7 16.3 2.4 28.6 8.6 6.6 1.3 13.8 1.5 3.0 4.6 PP1 414.5 0.4 17.0 2.4 21.6 153.4 24.2 15.4 11.8 12.5 29.5 4.4 51.7 15.1 12.1 2.4 24.2 2.7 5.4 8.1 1 77.3 0.2 2.6 0.6 5.1 24.6 4.7 3.3 2.4 2.6 5.8 1.2 9.5 2.6 2.8 0.7 5.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 47 of 56 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 48 of 56 14,649.7 0.5 9,927.4 911.3 655.6 728.6 332.7 518.9 315.0 300.8 235.0 764.4 523.8 228.5 179.6 22.5 326.9 45.8 133.3 130.7 Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) 701.3 0.0 483.9 47.0 17.5 7.5 11.3 20.7 12.6 6.2 8.3 23.0 18.2 8.0 6.3 0.9 17.9 2.1 4.5 5.4 Annual Ave.* 65.0 0.0 32.0 1.7 2.5 1.2 1.3 2.6 0.7 0.9 3.7 3.7 3.2 5.5 1.0 0.1 3.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 PP2 166.9 0.0 86.4 10.0 7.2 4.4 4.6 6.5 1.9 2.0 6.9 8.9 7.3 6.4 2.6 0.3 7.1 0.6 1.6 2.3 PP1 620.4 0.0 437.5 43.9 15.3 10.1 8.6 13.0 11.0 3.7 11.2 16.5 14.6 7.1 5.2 0.5 13.1 1.1 3.1 4.6 1 812.2 0.0 605.2 49.3 19.5 10.9 10.0 14.9 14.5 4.3 10.2 18.8 16.6 7.2 5.9 0.6 14.3 1.3 3.6 5.1 2 664.5 0.0 459.6 48.1 20.7 10.6 10.8 15.1 11.6 4.4 9.6 19.2 16.9 7.9 5.8 0.6 13.7 1.3 3.7 4.9 3 741.1 0.0 532.3 47.1 21.4 9.9 11.1 16.1 12.3 4.8 9.4 20.1 17.3 8.0 6.0 0.7 14.3 1.4 3.9 5.1 4 656.7 0.0 445.7 48.1 21.2 9.9 12.1 16.7 10.8 5.0 9.0 20.6 17.7 8.1 6.0 0.7 14.5 1.5 4.1 5.1 5 718.6 0.0 502.2 49.1 21.0 9.4 11.9 17.6 11.8 5.3 9.0 21.5 18.2 8.2 6.2 0.7 15.2 1.6 4.2 5.2 6 731.0 0.0 515.8 47.8 20.4 8.4 11.9 18.2 12.1 5.5 8.6 21.8 18.2 8.2 6.2 0.8 15.6 1.7 4.3 5.2 7 733.1 0.0 522.8 45.9 19.4 7.2 11.0 18.6 13.2 5.6 8.2 21.9 17.8 7.6 6.1 0.8 15.8 1.8 4.4 5.2 8 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well as value added. Total Industry/Year 725.7 0.0 508.3 47.2 19.2 7.2 11.6 19.7 13.3 5.9 8.3 22.9 18.5 7.7 6.3 0.8 16.8 1.9 4.6 5.4 9 747.1 0.0 523.6 47.6 18.9 7.5 12.3 20.7 13.9 6.2 8.3 23.7 19.1 7.8 6.5 0.9 17.6 2.0 4.7 5.5 10 717.6 0.0 484.3 48.8 18.8 8.5 14.1 22.0 13.4 6.6 8.6 24.9 20.2 8.1 6.8 0.9 18.7 2.2 4.9 5.7 11 594.3 0.0 369.7 49.0 17.7 6.8 12.1 22.0 11.2 6.7 8.1 24.7 19.4 8.1 6.6 1.0 18.6 2.3 4.9 5.6 12 684.7 0.0 450.7 48.8 17.5 7.5 13.3 23.4 12.9 7.0 8.3 25.8 20.2 8.2 6.9 1.0 19.9 2.4 5.1 5.8 13 731.6 0.0 493.2 48.8 17.4 7.2 13.0 24.5 13.8 7.4 8.3 26.5 20.4 8.3 7.0 1.1 20.9 2.6 5.2 6.0 14 738.5 0.0 499.0 49.0 17.1 6.5 12.2 25.4 13.9 7.6 8.2 27.0 20.4 8.3 7.0 1.1 21.7 2.7 5.2 6.0 15 694.4 0.0 471.4 47.4 15.1 5.1 10.8 24.4 12.7 7.4 6.9 25.2 18.5 8.0 6.4 1.1 20.7 2.6 5.0 5.6 16 Appendix Table A10: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Output by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions of 2008$) 697.7 0.0 487.9 43.2 13.4 3.7 9.0 24.2 12.8 7.3 6.2 24.3 17.1 7.9 6.0 1.0 20.7 2.7 4.8 5.4 17 716.0 0.0 503.9 43.0 12.6 4.0 9.1 25.0 13.1 7.5 6.2 24.6 17.2 8.0 6.1 1.1 21.5 2.8 4.9 5.5 18 690.7 0.0 472.7 43.2 12.1 4.9 10.2 26.0 12.6 7.8 6.4 25.1 17.6 8.9 6.2 1.1 22.4 2.9 4.9 5.6 19 609.6 0.0 392.4 44.1 11.4 5.1 10.1 26.3 11.0 7.9 6.2 25.1 17.5 9.0 6.1 1.1 22.7 3.0 4.9 5.6 20 286.5 0.0 139.7 13.5 7.8 1.0 6.7 22.7 3.9 7.1 4.1 21.2 13.0 8.8 4.7 1.0 20.0 2.8 4.2 4.3 21 57.3 0.0 0.7 1.9 -0.9 -3.3 2.9 13.9 0.4 4.5 -0.6 10.8 4.9 1.1 1.9 0.7 11.6 1.8 2.8 2.0 22 48.6 0.0 0.5 1.7 -4.5 -2.8 2.8 13.0 0.3 4.2 -0.6 9.7 4.2 0.1 1.7 0.7 11.5 1.7 2.6 1.9 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 49 of 56 1,781 1 417 54 144 17 41 163 83 12 42 125 144 58 90 22 165 45 83 75 Annual Ave.* 462 0 160 2 25 5 8 33 5 3 30 22 30 50 20 3 29 7 12 18 PP2 1,012 0 349 14 69 16 27 78 14 7 52 51 68 57 48 7 66 18 30 41 PP1 1,742 1 433 59 147 34 49 151 84 12 79 96 135 62 95 14 123 31 58 79 1 1,887 1 433 66 183 36 54 166 109 13 67 109 150 62 103 16 134 35 67 83 2 1,853 1 437 63 191 34 55 161 85 13 60 110 150 66 100 16 129 35 69 78 3 1,871 1 437 61 194 30 54 165 89 13 57 114 151 65 100 17 135 36 74 78 4 1,854 1 437 61 188 29 56 164 77 13 53 116 152 65 98 18 137 37 76 76 5 1,866 1 437 61 183 26 52 167 83 13 50 120 154 64 98 19 143 39 79 77 6 1,848 1 437 58 175 22 49 166 84 13 47 121 152 64 96 19 147 40 81 76 7 1,804 1 437 55 163 17 43 163 90 12 43 121 146 57 91 20 149 41 82 73 8 1,827 1 437 56 159 16 43 166 90 12 42 125 149 57 93 21 157 43 85 75 9 1,848 1 437 55 154 16 44 169 92 12 40 129 152 57 94 22 165 45 88 76 10 1,901 1 455 55 150 18 48 173 87 13 40 134 159 58 97 23 173 48 91 78 11 1,826 1 455 55 139 13 39 166 70 12 36 132 151 57 91 24 172 48 90 75 12 1,869 1 455 54 136 13 41 170 81 12 36 137 155 57 93 25 182 51 93 77 13 1,882 1 455 53 132 12 38 172 85 12 35 140 155 56 93 26 191 53 95 78 14 1,877 1 455 52 128 9 34 172 85 12 34 143 152 56 91 27 197 55 96 78 15 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Industry/Year 1,657 1 362 49 111 5 28 159 76 11 27 133 135 52 81 26 188 52 90 71 16 1,551 1 334 44 96 1 22 152 76 11 23 128 122 50 74 25 187 51 87 67 17 1,550 1 334 43 88 1 21 152 77 10 23 129 121 50 73 26 193 53 88 67 18 Appendix Table A11: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area 1,565 1 334 43 83 3 23 152 72 10 23 132 123 56 74 27 199 54 88 68 19 1,537 1 334 43 77 3 22 149 61 10 22 131 121 55 72 27 200 55 87 67 20 1,239 0 333 12 49 -5 12 123 17 8 13 111 85 53 52 24 177 50 75 50 21 364 0 -7 1 -18 -13 4 68 -3 5 -4 60 25 5 15 16 111 30 49 20 22 304 0 -6 1 -43 -12 3 61 -3 4 -3 53 20 -1 13 15 108 29 46 19 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 50 of 56 2,358.2 0.6 647.1 135.7 160.5 102.6 101.8 201.2 101.6 41.4 78.2 37.9 203.8 82.7 80.0 13.8 246.6 20.1 46.3 56.4 Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) 108.1 0.0 29.5 6.6 7.7 5.1 4.7 8.8 4.9 1.8 3.6 1.7 9.5 3.6 3.7 0.6 10.8 0.9 2.1 2.5 Annual Ave.* 21.7 0.0 8.9 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.3 1.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 1.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 PP2 49.2 0.0 19.8 1.4 2.9 1.9 1.8 2.6 0.8 0.6 2.7 0.7 3.9 2.8 1.4 0.2 3.9 0.3 0.7 1.0 PP1 85.4 0.0 24.8 5.9 6.2 4.3 3.3 5.2 4.1 1.1 4.3 1.2 7.6 3.1 2.8 0.3 7.3 0.5 1.3 1.9 1 96.2 0.0 25.4 6.7 8.1 5.2 4.0 6.2 5.5 1.3 4.0 1.4 8.8 3.2 3.3 0.4 8.3 0.6 1.6 2.2 2 98.4 0.0 26.2 6.5 8.7 5.6 4.4 6.4 4.5 1.4 3.9 1.5 9.1 3.6 3.4 0.4 8.4 0.6 1.7 2.2 3 101.8 0.0 26.8 6.4 9.1 5.7 4.6 6.9 4.8 1.5 3.9 1.6 9.3 3.6 3.5 0.5 8.9 0.6 1.8 2.3 4 103.7 0.0 27.3 6.6 9.1 5.9 5.0 7.2 4.3 1.6 3.9 1.6 9.5 3.6 3.6 0.5 9.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 5 106.5 0.0 27.9 6.7 9.1 6.0 5.0 7.6 4.7 1.7 3.9 1.7 9.7 3.7 3.7 0.5 9.6 0.7 2.0 2.4 6 107.3 0.0 28.5 6.6 8.9 5.8 5.0 7.9 4.8 1.7 3.8 1.7 9.7 3.7 3.7 0.5 9.8 0.7 2.0 2.4 7 106.8 0.0 29.2 6.4 8.5 5.4 4.7 8.1 5.2 1.7 3.6 1.7 9.5 3.4 3.6 0.6 10.0 0.8 2.0 2.4 8 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Total Industry/Year 110.2 0.0 30.0 6.6 8.5 5.4 4.9 8.5 5.3 1.8 3.7 1.7 9.8 3.5 3.8 0.6 10.6 0.8 2.1 2.5 9 113.0 0.0 30.7 6.7 8.4 5.5 5.2 8.9 5.5 1.9 3.7 1.8 10.0 3.6 3.9 0.6 11.0 0.9 2.2 2.6 10 118.2 0.0 32.6 6.8 8.3 5.9 5.8 9.4 5.3 2.0 3.8 1.9 10.5 3.7 4.0 0.6 11.6 0.9 2.2 2.7 11 116.0 0.0 33.4 6.9 8.0 5.3 5.1 9.5 4.5 2.0 3.6 1.8 10.1 3.7 3.9 0.7 11.6 0.9 2.2 2.7 12 119.4 0.0 34.0 6.9 7.9 5.5 5.6 10.0 5.1 2.1 3.7 1.9 10.4 3.7 4.0 0.7 11.8 1.0 2.3 2.8 13 122.0 0.0 34.9 6.9 7.8 5.4 5.5 10.5 5.4 2.2 3.7 1.9 10.5 3.8 4.1 0.7 12.4 1.0 2.3 2.8 14 123.3 0.0 35.7 7.0 7.7 5.2 5.2 10.8 5.5 2.2 3.7 2.0 10.5 3.8 4.1 0.7 12.8 1.1 2.4 2.9 15 110.7 0.0 29.2 6.8 7.0 4.5 4.6 10.5 5.0 2.1 3.2 1.8 9.4 3.7 3.8 0.7 12.3 1.1 2.3 2.7 16 104.6 0.0 27.7 6.2 6.3 3.8 3.9 10.4 5.0 2.1 2.9 1.7 8.6 3.6 3.6 0.7 12.2 1.1 2.2 2.6 17 Appendix Table A12: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Earnings by Place of Work by Industry Cochise/Pima/Santa Cruz Counties Study Area (Millions of 2008$) 105.3 0.0 28.2 6.2 5.9 3.6 3.9 10.6 5.1 2.1 2.9 1.7 8.6 3.7 3.5 0.7 12.5 1.1 2.2 2.7 18 107.3 0.0 28.7 6.2 5.6 3.8 4.3 10.9 4.8 2.1 2.9 1.8 8.7 4.1 3.6 0.7 12.9 1.1 2.2 2.7 19 106.6 0.0 28.9 6.4 5.3 3.7 4.2 11.0 4.3 2.1 2.9 1.7 8.6 4.1 3.5 0.7 13.1 1.2 2.2 2.7 20 86.9 0.0 29.4 2.0 3.9 1.7 2.9 9.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.5 6.2 4.0 2.8 0.7 11.5 1.1 1.9 2.2 21 22.2 0.0 -0.5 0.3 0.2 -1.2 1.3 6.0 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.5 1.2 0.5 7.0 0.7 1.3 1.2 22 15.5 0.0 -0.5 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 1.0 5.3 0.1 0.9 -0.2 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.9 0.4 6.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 51 of 56 19,206.2 0.7 10,823.6 1,044.7 690.1 778.2 625.9 793.8 478.9 264.1 431.6 970.3 561.6 385.7 229.2 58.5 586.0 105.2 190.3 187.9 Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) 907.1 0.0 524.3 50.4 33.4 35.3 28.5 34.7 23.0 11.7 19.9 43.1 25.6 17.0 10.5 2.5 25.6 4.5 8.4 8.5 Annual Ave.* 113.3 0.0 45.5 2.5 5.1 4.0 3.6 4.9 1.8 2.2 10.0 7.4 4.8 10.7 2.0 0.3 4.9 0.6 1.3 1.7 PP2 280.2 0.0 123.2 11.9 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.7 4.8 4.6 18.1 17.4 10.9 13.3 4.8 0.8 11.2 1.5 3.1 3.9 PP1 2 798.9 1,008.5 0.0 0.1 480.1 648.4 46.9 52.7 29.6 37.9 31.0 34.8 21.1 24.5 21.8 25.1 20.2 26.0 8.2 9.4 27.9 24.8 30.5 35.0 20.4 23.2 15.5 15.9 9.0 10.2 1.4 1.7 19.5 21.2 2.6 3.0 5.8 6.7 7.3 8.1 1 854.9 0.0 502.8 51.3 38.9 34.5 25.6 24.8 21.2 9.3 22.5 35.1 23.0 17.1 9.7 1.7 19.8 3.0 6.7 7.7 3 940.6 0.0 575.6 50.5 40.9 34.4 26.8 27.0 22.5 10.0 22.5 37.5 24.0 17.2 10.1 1.9 21.1 3.3 7.2 8.0 4 851.4 0.0 489.1 51.3 39.3 34.9 28.4 27.3 20.1 10.0 21.0 37.7 24.0 17.3 9.8 2.0 20.6 3.3 7.3 7.8 5 918.1 0.0 545.3 52.4 39.1 35.2 28.6 29.1 21.8 10.5 21.0 39.4 24.8 17.5 10.1 2.1 21.7 3.6 7.7 8.1 6 930.0 0.0 558.5 51.1 37.9 33.8 28.7 30.0 22.2 10.7 20.1 40.2 24.9 17.5 10.1 2.2 22.1 3.7 7.9 8.1 7 923.1 0.0 565.3 49.0 35.0 31.2 26.7 30.1 23.7 10.5 18.7 39.7 24.0 16.1 9.6 2.2 21.8 3.8 7.9 7.8 8 934.6 0.0 551.0 50.8 36.7 33.5 29.1 33.3 24.3 11.6 20.1 43.0 26.0 16.5 10.6 2.5 24.4 4.2 8.5 8.6 9 966.0 0.0 566.3 51.4 37.1 35.4 31.0 35.4 25.4 12.2 20.5 45.2 27.2 16.8 11.2 2.6 25.9 4.5 8.9 8.9 10 943.4 0.0 528.9 52.6 36.4 38.7 34.4 37.2 24.6 12.7 20.8 47.0 28.4 17.4 11.5 2.7 26.9 4.8 9.2 9.1 11 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well and value added (compensation and profit). Total Industry/Year 803.0 0.0 414.1 52.5 32.8 34.8 30.3 36.3 20.8 12.2 18.7 45.5 26.7 17.1 10.5 2.7 25.9 4.8 8.9 8.6 12 905.0 0.0 495.1 52.5 32.7 37.7 33.0 38.8 23.6 13.0 19.6 47.9 28.1 17.5 11.2 2.9 27.8 5.2 9.3 9.0 13 959.2 0.0 537.3 52.6 33.0 38.4 33.1 41.1 25.1 13.6 20.1 49.7 28.8 17.6 11.6 3.0 29.6 5.5 9.6 9.4 14 968.7 0.0 542.9 52.8 32.8 38.1 31.9 42.7 25.4 14.0 20.0 50.9 29.0 17.7 11.7 3.1 30.8 5.8 9.8 9.5 15 901.8 0.0 506.0 50.9 29.2 35.4 28.9 41.1 23.1 13.2 16.7 47.7 26.5 16.7 10.6 3.0 29.2 5.5 9.3 8.8 16 Appendix Table A13: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Output by Industry State of Arizona (Millions of 2008$) 899.0 0.0 518.9 46.6 26.9 33.2 25.7 41.4 23.1 13.0 15.5 46.9 25.1 16.3 10.2 3.1 29.6 5.6 9.2 8.6 17 921.9 0.0 534.6 46.5 25.7 34.7 26.3 43.0 23.8 13.4 15.8 47.8 25.5 16.4 10.4 3.1 31.0 5.9 9.3 8.8 18 900.0 0.0 503.1 46.6 24.3 37.6 28.4 44.4 22.9 13.8 16.0 48.5 25.9 18.3 10.6 3.2 31.9 6.1 9.3 8.9 19 813.0 0.0 422.7 47.4 22.0 38.4 28.0 44.4 20.3 13.7 15.3 47.8 25.4 18.4 10.3 3.2 31.8 6.2 9.1 8.7 20 450.0 0.0 167.8 16.2 14.3 27.0 20.4 38.3 8.7 11.5 9.9 40.7 19.5 17.4 7.8 2.9 27.4 5.6 8.0 6.7 21 119.8 0.0 0.7 3.1 -2.4 14.1 10.5 23.2 1.8 5.8 -2.0 22.2 8.2 2.7 2.9 2.0 15.2 3.5 5.3 3.0 22 101.9 0.0 0.6 2.7 -9.6 14.1 9.8 21.3 1.6 5.2 -1.8 19.7 7.1 0.7 2.6 1.9 14.8 3.4 4.9 2.8 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 52 of 56 2,454 1 427 51 226 68 74 240 154 24 79 163 199 71 113 42 215 57 135 116 Annual Ave.* 648 0 164 3 42 14 17 54 14 8 60 30 44 56 29 6 44 11 21 31 PP2 1,416 1 357 14 114 45 50 123 36 16 103 68 97 67 67 14 98 25 52 69 PP1 2,429 2 445 54 232 97 88 222 154 27 151 120 181 77 124 25 170 42 95 123 1 2,654 2 445 60 293 104 97 245 197 29 126 138 203 77 136 30 185 46 110 131 2 2,549 2 449 57 296 100 96 233 158 27 110 138 198 82 125 30 173 45 110 120 3 2,604 2 449 56 305 94 95 243 165 27 105 146 204 80 127 33 184 48 119 122 4 2,525 2 448 56 287 92 95 236 144 26 95 146 201 79 120 33 180 48 121 116 5 2,552 2 447 56 280 87 91 242 155 26 92 152 205 78 120 36 188 50 127 118 6 2,516 2 447 54 267 79 87 240 156 25 84 154 203 77 117 37 191 51 129 116 7 2,413 1 447 51 241 68 76 232 164 23 76 152 192 69 108 37 188 51 128 109 8 2,535 1 447 52 250 70 79 247 166 24 79 164 206 70 118 41 209 55 139 118 9 2,590 1 447 52 249 70 80 254 171 25 78 171 213 70 121 44 220 58 145 121 10 2,636 1 466 52 240 74 85 257 163 25 77 177 220 71 122 46 228 61 149 122 11 2,453 1 466 51 211 61 70 241 134 22 67 171 204 68 109 45 218 59 143 112 12 2,536 1 466 50 208 63 74 249 152 23 68 179 212 68 114 48 233 62 149 117 13 2,577 1 466 50 208 60 70 255 160 23 67 185 215 68 116 50 245 65 153 120 14 2,571 1 466 49 203 54 64 256 159 23 65 189 213 67 115 52 253 67 155 120 15 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Industry/Year 2,288 1 372 47 176 45 55 237 142 20 52 178 191 62 101 50 240 63 147 109 16 2,174 1 343 42 159 37 45 230 140 19 47 175 178 59 95 50 242 63 144 105 17 2,185 1 343 41 150 37 45 231 143 19 47 177 179 59 95 51 251 65 145 106 18 Appendix Table A14: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry State of Arizona 2,184 1 343 41 139 39 46 230 135 19 46 179 181 65 95 52 256 66 145 106 19 2,107 1 343 41 123 37 44 222 116 18 43 176 175 64 90 52 253 66 142 101 20 1,661 0 341 13 73 16 28 183 41 14 27 151 129 59 64 47 218 58 123 76 21 534 0 -7 2 -31 -4 11 102 0 6 -7 88 45 7 16 32 129 35 81 29 22 440 0 -6 2 -73 -3 10 91 0 5 -5 78 37 0 14 30 125 33 75 27 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 53 of 56 3,884.4 1.5 928.9 149.3 277.3 244.0 260.9 325.5 181.0 72.0 188.8 85.1 286.1 174.9 136.3 36.8 334.3 40.7 81.3 79.5 Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) 177.9 0.1 42.3 7.2 13.6 11.5 12.0 14.3 8.7 3.3 8.7 3.8 13.2 7.7 6.3 1.6 14.7 1.8 3.6 3.6 Annual Ave.* 38.1 0.0 13.1 0.4 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.6 3.7 0.7 2.5 4.7 1.1 0.2 2.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 PP2 84.4 0.0 28.7 1.7 5.8 4.0 4.4 4.6 1.9 1.2 6.6 1.5 5.7 5.9 2.6 0.5 5.8 0.6 1.3 1.6 PP1 142.2 0.1 36.0 6.3 11.8 9.3 8.2 8.6 7.1 2.2 10.2 2.7 10.6 6.8 4.9 0.9 10.3 1.1 2.3 2.9 1 160.7 0.1 36.9 7.2 15.4 11.1 9.9 10.2 9.3 2.6 9.4 3.2 12.4 7.1 5.8 1.1 11.7 1.2 2.8 3.3 2 162.3 0.1 38.0 7.0 16.1 11.5 10.6 10.4 7.9 2.7 9.0 3.3 12.4 7.7 5.8 1.2 11.4 1.3 2.9 3.2 3 169.6 0.1 38.8 7.0 17.0 11.9 11.2 11.3 8.4 2.9 9.2 3.5 12.9 7.8 6.1 1.3 12.2 1.4 3.2 3.3 4 170.1 0.1 39.5 7.1 16.5 12.3 11.9 11.5 7.6 3.0 8.8 3.5 12.9 7.8 6.0 1.3 12.2 1.4 3.2 3.3 5 174.8 0.1 40.2 7.3 16.5 12.5 12.0 12.2 8.3 3.1 9.0 3.6 13.3 7.9 6.2 1.4 12.7 1.5 3.4 3.4 6 175.6 0.1 41.1 7.2 16.1 12.1 12.1 12.7 8.4 3.1 8.7 3.7 13.3 7.9 6.2 1.4 13.0 1.5 3.5 3.4 7 172.2 0.1 42.1 6.9 15.1 11.3 11.5 12.7 9.0 3.0 8.3 3.6 12.7 7.3 6.0 1.5 12.9 1.5 3.4 3.3 8 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Total Industry/Year 182.3 0.1 43.1 7.2 15.8 11.9 12.4 13.9 9.2 3.3 8.9 3.9 13.7 7.6 6.5 1.6 14.2 1.7 3.7 3.6 9 188.8 0.1 44.1 7.3 15.9 12.4 13.1 14.8 9.7 3.4 9.1 4.1 14.2 7.7 6.8 1.7 15.0 1.8 3.9 3.8 10 196.0 0.1 46.8 7.5 15.6 13.2 14.3 15.4 9.4 3.5 9.2 4.2 14.7 7.9 6.9 1.8 15.6 1.9 4.0 3.8 11 187.5 0.1 47.4 7.6 14.3 11.9 12.9 15.1 8.1 3.4 8.5 4.0 13.8 7.8 6.4 1.7 15.1 1.9 3.9 3.7 12 193.1 0.1 48.3 7.6 12.4 12.5 13.8 16.0 9.1 3.6 8.9 4.2 14.4 8.0 6.7 1.8 16.0 2.0 4.0 3.8 13 198.3 0.1 49.4 7.6 12.5 12.5 13.9 16.9 9.6 3.7 9.1 4.4 14.7 8.1 6.9 1.9 16.9 2.1 4.1 4.0 14 201.1 0.1 50.7 7.7 12.4 12.2 13.5 17.6 9.7 3.8 9.2 4.4 14.7 8.1 7.0 2.0 17.6 2.2 4.2 4.1 15 181.0 0.1 41.6 7.5 11.0 11.1 12.3 16.9 8.9 3.6 7.9 4.1 13.3 7.7 6.4 1.9 16.8 2.1 4.0 3.8 16 173.1 0.0 39.3 6.9 10.1 10.0 11.1 17.0 8.9 3.5 7.5 4.0 12.6 7.5 6.2 1.9 17.0 2.1 3.9 3.7 17 Appendix Table A15: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Earnings by Place of Work by Industry State of Arizona (Millions of 2008$) 175.4 0.0 40.1 6.9 9.5 10.0 11.2 17.6 9.1 3.6 7.6 4.1 12.6 7.5 6.2 1.9 17.6 2.2 3.9 3.8 18 178.2 0.0 40.8 6.9 8.9 10.5 11.8 18.0 8.7 3.6 7.6 4.1 12.7 8.3 6.2 2.0 17.9 2.3 3.9 3.8 19 175.3 0.0 41.7 7.0 8.0 10.4 11.5 17.9 7.7 3.5 7.4 4.0 12.3 8.3 5.9 1.9 17.8 2.3 3.8 3.7 20 142.4 0.0 42.4 2.5 5.0 6.4 8.5 15.5 3.5 2.9 5.1 3.4 9.1 7.9 4.6 1.8 15.5 2.1 3.4 3.0 21 37.1 0.0 -0.7 0.5 -1.8 1.4 4.1 9.2 0.7 1.3 0.1 1.6 2.8 1.2 1.8 1.2 8.8 1.2 2.2 1.5 22 24.7 0.0 -0.6 0.4 -4.8 0.4 3.2 7.7 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 1.7 0.2 1.2 1.1 7.8 1.1 1.9 1.2 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 54 of 56 Annual Ave.* 27,267.7 1,309.4 10.8 0.5 11,409.7 550.3 1,092.5 53.1 406.4 18.9 4,234.2 204.0 1,059.8 51.0 727.5 34.9 1,291.8 62.8 812.5 38.9 1,677.1 79.1 996.9 47.4 1,203.6 57.4 506.9 23.3 411.2 19.6 82.0 3.9 735.2 35.1 120.4 5.7 190.1 9.1 299.0 14.3 Total 166.1 0.1 59.1 3.0 2.5 21.4 5.7 5.4 4.8 5.4 20.0 7.9 8.0 8.4 2.8 0.5 6.3 0.9 1.6 2.4 PP2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 477.7 1,213.9 1,489.9 1,254.3 1,372.2 1,247.0 1,342.9 1,334.0 1,256.9 1,389.5 1,447.2 1,422.8 1,161.6 1,320.6 1,399.6 1,383.1 1,273.1 1,252.2 1,290.3 1,259.3 1,078.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 166.5 508.6 682.3 534.3 607.2 521.3 576.0 586.0 589.8 577.1 592.7 555.9 438.8 519.4 560.8 565.3 530.4 539.9 554.9 523.3 442.2 14.1 51.0 57.4 54.7 54.2 54.2 55.6 53.9 50.8 54.0 54.7 55.8 54.4 55.1 55.2 55.1 52.7 48.3 48.1 48.3 48.2 7.2 16.0 19.9 17.8 19.6 18.6 19.8 19.3 17.5 21.1 21.9 21.8 18.3 19.0 19.9 19.6 18.0 17.7 18.3 18.2 15.6 82.1 198.4 225.4 209.1 214.1 210.8 220.3 207.4 184.3 214.1 225.4 236.0 196.7 215.8 220.3 210.2 188.8 173.7 179.8 185.5 164.1 20.7 43.9 50.8 49.1 52.5 51.7 53.8 52.4 45.9 55.7 59.3 63.0 51.2 56.8 57.9 54.2 48.6 43.4 44.6 46.3 39.5 14.4 31.0 35.9 30.1 32.9 30.0 31.7 31.3 27.2 36.9 39.2 39.7 31.7 35.9 39.6 40.1 36.7 37.2 38.8 39.1 32.1 14.4 56.5 72.7 58.8 62.7 55.8 60.6 61.2 62.7 67.4 70.9 68.4 56.0 64.3 68.4 68.3 62.2 61.9 63.8 61.1 52.2 14.7 31.6 37.3 32.4 36.8 34.0 37.3 36.7 31.6 42.5 45.6 45.5 37.0 41.8 45.4 44.3 40.8 40.1 42.3 41.8 34.0 42.4 75.2 77.1 66.6 73.8 69.8 75.2 75.4 66.4 86.7 90.6 90.4 74.9 84.2 91.2 89.5 80.8 79.7 83.6 81.1 69.2 22.4 44.2 50.7 43.9 47.6 43.9 46.4 46.4 40.5 51.4 53.9 54.2 45.1 51.0 53.2 52.0 47.0 45.8 46.4 46.1 39.2 23.2 50.8 59.3 52.3 57.2 52.9 56.2 56.3 47.7 62.7 66.8 67.3 55.4 61.9 64.5 63.5 57.5 55.5 57.7 56.0 47.4 16.0 23.5 25.4 25.6 25.9 25.1 25.7 25.1 21.4 24.0 24.5 25.2 22.8 23.7 24.1 23.2 20.5 19.3 19.4 21.9 19.8 7.8 17.1 20.2 17.5 19.3 17.8 19.3 18.7 16.6 21.7 23.0 23.1 18.7 21.0 22.0 21.7 19.9 19.3 19.9 19.6 16.1 1.5 3.5 4.2 3.2 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.7 4.4 4.9 4.5 3.5 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.3 16.3 33.7 38.1 30.9 34.3 30.3 32.5 31.9 27.1 37.8 39.9 38.6 30.3 35.7 39.6 39.1 36.1 37.7 38.8 38.1 31.1 2.5 4.9 5.6 4.8 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.6 6.0 6.5 6.6 5.4 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.4 4.5 9.3 10.5 8.9 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 7.5 9.8 10.6 10.2 8.2 9.6 10.1 9.8 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.3 6.8 6.6 14.1 16.2 13.5 14.6 13.4 14.2 13.8 12.0 15.7 16.2 16.0 12.8 14.5 15.7 15.3 14.0 13.6 14.2 14.1 11.7 PP1 Output is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the region, including all intermediate goods as well as value added. Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Industry/Year Appendix Table A16: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Output by Industry United States of America (Millions of 2008$) 497.3 0.1 176.7 14.3 11.0 73.1 19.0 17.9 18.1 19.7 41.1 23.0 26.1 14.7 9.5 2.0 18.0 3.3 3.6 6.1 21 -28.8 0.0 0.9 -0.2 4.3 -11.2 -2.8 -3.2 -0.7 -3.0 -4.5 -2.2 -1.3 2.3 -0.6 -0.2 -3.8 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 22 -33.4 0.0 0.4 -0.4 3.5 -11.2 -3.4 -4.0 -0.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -1.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.3 -3.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 55 of 56 4,081 8 852 52 146 326 141 272 386 62 212 116 390 75 252 66 296 74 141 214 Annual Ave.* 964 2 332 4 21 54 26 64 36 15 92 24 60 33 44 9 61 15 26 46 PP2 2,503 4 816 16 63 191 92 168 106 38 178 65 172 60 119 25 154 40 73 123 PP1 4,547 9 909 58 139 433 185 346 395 77 297 126 376 88 259 59 314 75 149 253 1 5,057 11 923 65 172 479 205 387 500 87 284 145 438 94 301 71 357 85 171 282 2 4,422 10 919 61 151 433 189 314 401 71 236 122 383 93 256 55 283 73 144 228 3 4,618 10 915 59 165 427 193 330 421 77 251 131 414 93 277 65 313 78 156 243 4 4,266 9 914 58 156 407 180 287 371 68 228 116 382 88 250 53 270 71 141 217 5 4,388 10 907 58 163 404 179 291 397 71 237 122 402 89 267 59 287 74 144 227 6 4,249 9 895 56 157 371 166 277 395 67 227 120 398 85 254 60 279 73 143 217 7 3,783 8 886 52 140 315 138 229 397 54 191 102 333 72 225 46 232 63 118 182 8 4,473 9 889 54 166 351 160 303 422 71 243 130 434 79 285 75 326 80 156 240 9 4,596 9 889 53 171 355 162 311 439 72 245 135 458 79 297 83 342 84 166 246 10 4,550 8 926 54 167 362 165 303 419 69 233 133 455 80 292 77 328 84 159 236 11 3,797 7 919 51 138 290 126 230 337 53 185 105 369 71 233 58 250 67 124 184 12 4,101 7 917 51 142 307 134 250 381 58 201 120 410 73 257 70 295 76 147 205 13 4,223 7 915 50 146 299 129 270 399 60 208 123 423 72 267 77 324 80 153 221 14 4,087 6 912 49 142 273 116 260 392 56 198 117 410 69 257 77 316 79 148 210 15 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. *Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Employment includes full-time and part-time jobs by place of work. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are excluded Public sector and farm workers are excluded. Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) Industry/Year 3,554 6 735 46 129 235 97 227 350 49 172 103 368 59 229 71 289 69 130 190 16 3,363 5 669 41 125 202 82 219 342 47 163 98 350 55 221 71 295 67 126 185 17 3,404 5 668 40 128 201 80 223 348 47 166 98 361 54 221 73 303 70 129 189 18 Appendix Table A17: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Private Non-Farm Employment by Industry United States of America 3,314 5 666 40 125 202 80 217 329 44 155 95 346 60 217 69 291 67 122 184 19 2,830 4 665 39 105 175 63 168 276 34 126 75 287 53 173 55 230 56 100 146 20 1,712 3 640 11 72 67 24 80 92 18 67 34 152 38 99 31 127 32 50 75 21 -238 1 -2 -1 25 -22 -15 -39 -14 -6 -16 -27 -18 5 -12 -5 -43 -9 -19 -21 22 -243 1 -2 -1 20 -21 -15 -39 -13 -6 -13 -30 -20 -2 -13 -6 -39 -9 -17 -18 23 Seidman Research Institute, W.P. Carey School of Business Page 56 of 56 7,807.8 8.3 1,206.3 198.0 256.7 1,257.2 510.4 376.9 541.4 302.3 759.5 109.5 794.8 275.2 262.6 69.6 545.7 66.2 104.1 163.3 Total Non-Farm Private Sector Forestry, Fishing, Other Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp, Warehousing Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Profess, Tech Services Mngmt of Co, Enter Admin, Waste Services Educational Services Health Care, Social Asst Arts, Enter, Rec Accom, Food Services Other Services (excl Gov) 362.6 0.4 54.7 9.5 11.7 59.0 24.0 17.5 25.9 14.1 35.1 5.1 37.1 12.5 12.2 3.2 25.1 3.0 4.8 7.6 Annual Ave.* 54.2 0.0 16.3 0.6 1.1 4.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 7.6 0.7 4.3 3.8 1.4 0.3 3.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 PP2 150.7 0.1 45.2 2.5 3.4 18.5 7.9 5.7 5.8 4.2 16.1 1.9 12.6 7.2 3.9 0.9 8.9 1.1 1.8 2.9 PP1 279.8 0.3 47.8 8.7 7.6 44.9 16.8 12.2 21.4 9.0 28.4 3.7 27.3 10.8 8.6 2.2 18.2 2.0 3.8 6.0 1 328.7 0.4 50.7 9.9 10.0 53.7 20.4 14.9 27.8 11.2 30.4 4.5 33.2 12.0 10.7 2.8 21.9 2.5 4.6 7.2 2 311.9 0.4 51.2 9.5 9.7 52.9 20.7 13.6 23.3 10.5 27.9 4.3 30.7 12.5 9.9 2.4 19.5 2.3 4.3 6.5 3 336.8 0.4 52.0 9.5 10.9 55.9 22.5 15.2 24.9 12.1 31.3 4.7 33.9 12.9 11.1 2.9 22.2 2.6 4.7 7.1 4 330.5 0.4 53.1 9.5 10.9 56.8 22.6 14.5 22.7 11.8 30.6 4.5 32.5 12.6 10.7 2.6 20.8 2.5 4.5 6.7 5 350.1 0.4 53.7 9.8 11.5 60.3 23.9 15.5 24.6 13.0 33.2 4.8 34.9 13.1 11.6 2.8 22.5 2.7 4.7 7.2 6 351.3 0.4 53.8 9.6 11.7 58.8 23.9 15.7 25.0 13.1 33.6 4.9 35.5 13.1 11.6 2.9 22.8 2.8 4.7 7.2 7 328.6 0.4 53.8 9.1 11.1 54.4 21.8 14.3 25.7 11.9 30.7 4.6 31.6 11.6 10.8 2.6 20.7 2.6 4.3 6.6 8 Source: Results from the REMI PI+ regional economic forecasting model. Annual average values refer to years 1 - 20. Earnings by place of work is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. Total Industry/Year 382.4 0.4 55.9 9.7 12.7 61.6 25.7 18.2 27.7 15.0 38.0 5.4 39.7 12.9 13.2 3.5 26.4 3.1 5.2 8.1 9 402.9 0.4 56.7 9.9 13.4 65.2 27.4 19.3 29.2 16.2 40.1 5.7 42.6 13.4 14.0 3.8 28.2 3.4 5.5 8.6 10 413.0 0.4 60.1 10.1 13.4 68.4 29.1 19.9 28.5 16.4 40.2 5.8 43.4 13.7 14.2 3.7 28.1 3.5 5.5 8.6 11 370.7 0.4 60.7 9.9 12.0 60.6 25.2 17.2 24.1 14.3 35.2 5.2 37.8 12.7 12.4 3.2 24.4 3.1 4.8 7.4 12 398.2 0.4 62.0 10.0 12.3 65.1 27.3 18.8 27.1 15.7 38.3 5.6 41.4 13.2 13.5 3.6 27.1 3.4 5.3 8.1 13 413.7 0.4 63.0 10.1 12.8 66.4 27.8 20.3 28.6 16.7 40.7 5.8 43.0 13.4 14.2 3.8 29.2 3.6 5.5 8.6 14 412.5 0.4 64.1 10.1 12.9 64.8 26.9 20.7 28.7 16.8 40.4 5.8 42.8 13.2 14.1 3.8 29.4 3.6 5.4 8.5 15 379.9 0.3 53.6 9.7 12.3 60.4 25.0 19.5 26.5 15.9 37.6 5.4 40.1 12.0 13.2 3.7 28.2 3.5 5.0 8.1 16 368.4 0.3 49.6 9.0 12.2 57.2 23.2 19.7 26.4 15.7 37.1 5.3 39.2 11.6 13.1 3.7 28.8 3.4 4.9 7.9 17 Appendix Table A18: Total Economic Impacts - Production/Post-Production Phase of the Rosemont Copper Project - Earnings by Place of Work by Industry United States of America (Millions of 2008$) 377.0 0.3 50.3 9.0 12.5 58.5 23.4 20.6 27.0 16.4 38.4 5.4 40.3 11.6 13.3 3.8 29.6 3.6 5.0 8.1 18 374.4 0.3 50.8 9.0 12.3 59.6 24.0 20.6 25.9 16.0 37.1 5.3 38.9 12.5 13.0 3.6 29.1 3.5 4.8 8.0 19 340.9 0.3 51.5 8.9 11.1 55.2 21.4 18.2 22.7 14.0 32.8 4.7 34.2 11.5 11.3 3.1 25.5 3.2 4.2 7.0 20 240.0 0.2 49.2 3.2 9.0 33.5 13.8 12.8 10.7 9.9 22.8 3.4 22.9 9.1 8.0 2.3 18.8 2.4 3.0 4.9 21 64.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 5.5 11.2 4.5 4.1 3.0 3.0 6.2 1.2 7.0 3.2 2.8 0.9 6.7 0.8 1.1 1.7 22 46.9 0.1 0.6 0.3 4.5 8.3 2.9 3.1 2.2 2.1 4.8 0.8 5.1 1.6 2.0 0.7 5.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 23