Economic Impact Analysis: Fiscal Year 2013 Prepared by L. William Seidman Research Institute W.P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University September 2013 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 1 1. METHODOLOGY AND OVERVIEW…………...………,………………….4 2. ON-AIRPORT IMPACTS ……………………………….……………………8 3. AIR VISITOR IMPACTS…………………………………..……………...…13 4. A DAY AT GATEWAY AIRPORT…...…………………… ………...……..23 5. ECONOMIC IMPACT GROWTH ………………………………………....24 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents an analysis of the economic impacts of Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport (Gateway Airport) based on activity during FY 2013 (see table below). Gateway Airport serves as a portal that welcomes commerce and visitors into the East Valley and Greater Phoenix region. Commercial airline travelers arriving at Gateway Airport can visit friends and relatives, conduct business, or continue on to other destinations in Arizona. General aviation flyers can stop for fuel or stay over in the region for business meetings or sporting events. Cargo flights can avoid more congested airports and readily serve the technology-oriented firms of the area. Outward bound residents have options to diverse points in the nation from Gateway Airport via commercial air service. These options have increased significantly in recent years with the expansion of Allegiant Air service and the presence of Spirit Airlines during the FY 2013 period. Following FAA methodology, this study views Gateway Airport as a source of significant economic output (the production of aviation services) that creates revenues for firms, and employment and earnings for workers on and off the airport. Business spending on the airport injects revenues into the community when firms buy products from local and regional suppliers and again when employees of the airport spend for goods and services in their communities. Summary of Economic Impacts FY 2013 Gateway Airport Revenues Payrolls Employment On-Airport Activity $373,152,000 $118,276,000 2,042 Air Visitor Spending 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 Direct Impacts 767,126,000 224,582,000 6,425 Secondary Impacts 544,106,000 167,454,000 4,045 1,311,232,000 392,036,000 10,470 Total Impacts Note: On-Airport activity includes private firms, public agencies and capital improvement projects; air visitor spending includes commercial airline passengers and general aviation, air taxi and military travelers. Secondary impacts computed from IMPLAN input-output model with Maricopa County coefficients 1 In addition, spending by air visitors produces revenues for firms in the hospitality sector as well as employment and earnings for workers in tourism-related industries. The direct economic impact (not including multiplier effects) of combined on-airport activity and offairport visitor spending summed to $767.1million in FY 2013 To measure the economic impact of the airport, information on revenues and employment was obtained from suppliers and users of aviation services including private sector firms on the airport, government agencies, and Airport Authority staff. Surveys and phone contacts with employers and visitors were used to obtain estimates of direct spending and employment. Visitor survey results were obtained through the cooperation of the Mesa Convention and Visitors Bureau and the Behavior Research Center, Inc. On-airport economic activity generated revenues of $373.1 million, creating employment for 2,042 onairport workers, with payrolls of $118.3 million To measure the secondary impacts of direct spending that recirculates within the region, airport impact studies rely on multiplier factors from input-output models. Secondary spending contributes to regional output, earnings and employment in the form of indirect (supplier) and induced (consumer) impacts. The indirect and induced spending coefficients used for this study were from the IMPLAN input-output model based on data from the Arizona Department of Administration and the U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The highlights of the FY 2013 economic impact analysis are set out below. The total economic impact (including all multiplier effects) of Gateway Airport summed to $1.3 billion in FY 2013, supporting a total of 10,470 jobs in the regional economy On-airport businesses purchased $182.4 million of intermediate goods and services from suppliers in the region in FY2013 Air visitors arriving at Gateway Airport spent $394 million, creating 4,383 jobs in the regional economy in FY 2013 A typical departing airliner carried 86 visitors, who collectively spent $80,066 during their stay in the area Gateway airport has experienced significant growth since the previous impact study was completed in FY 2010 (see table on next page). Compared to FY 2010, on-airport employment rose by more than 75 percent in FY 2013 Regional spending created by air visitors rose by more than 400 percent The total revenue impact, including multiplier effects, rose by 79 percent (in 2013 dollars), while total regional employment supported by Gateway Airport increased by 150 percent compared to FY 2010 2 Comparison of Economic Impacts: FY 2013 vs. FY 2010 Gateway Airport On-Airport Activity FY 2010 (in 2013$) FY 2013 Percent Change Air Visitor Spending* FY 2010(in 2013$) FY 2013 Revenues Payrolls Employment $331,624,000 $72,980,000 1,145 373,152,000 118,276,000 2,042 13% 62% 78% Revenues Payrolls Employment 73,871,000 26,014,000 1,024 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 Percent Change Direct Impacts 433% 309% 328% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2010 (in 2013$) 405,495,000 98,994,000 2,169 FY 2013 767,126,000 224,582,000 6,425 Percent Change 89% 127% 196% Total Economic Impacts Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2010 (in 2013$) 733,885,000 201,134,000 4,191 1,311,232,000 392,036,000 10,470 79% 95% 150% Total Number Enplanements FY 2013 Percent Change *Airline Passengers Visitors FY 2010 682,771 342,047 211,915 FY 2013 1,455,778 728,155 436,893 113% 106% Percent Change 113% Note: All figures expressed in 2013 dollars. 3 SECTION 1: METHODOLOGY AND OVERVIEW The presence of an airport creates multiple impacts for a community. Measurement of these impacts is often complex, as the influence of the airport on the pace of economic development and quality of life is complicated to quantify. Airports bring essential services, including enhanced medical care (such as air ambulance service), support for law enforcement and other government services and agencies (such as the U.S. Forest Service), as well as courier delivery of mail and high value parcels. These services raise the quality of life for residents and maintain a competitive environment for economic development. Increasingly, metropolitan airports are also prime locations for activity not directly related to aviation, including high technology firms. As a leader in this national trend, Gateway Airport is developing into a major employment locus for the East Valley region. 1.1 Quantitative Impact Measures Although qualitative advantages created by an airport are important, they are also challenging to measure. In studying airport impacts, regional analysts have emphasized indicators of economic activity for airports that can be quantified, such as dollar value of output, number of jobs created, and wages and salaries received by workers. Economic impact studies differ from costbenefit analyses, which are often used to support the decision to undertake a proposed project. Study of economic impact is related to measurement of economic contribution of an industry, an activity, or a particular component of the economy. The methodology as applied to airport impacts was standardized in the publication by the Federal Aviation Administration, Estimating the Regional Economic Significance of Airports, Washington, D.C., 1992. Following FAA methodology, this study views Gateway Airport as a source of measurable economic output (the production of goods and services) that creates revenues for firms, and employment and earnings for workers on and off the airport. Business spending on the airport injects revenues into the community when firms buy products from suppliers and again when employees of the airport spend for household goods and services. In addition, spending by air visitors produces revenues for firms in the hospitality sector as well as employment and earnings for workers. The quantitative measures of economic impacts of the Gateway Airport are each described below. Revenue is the value in dollars of the output of goods and services produced by businesses. For government units, the budget is used as the value of output. Revenue is equivalent to purchases, spending, or sales. From the perspective of the business that is the supplier of goods and services, the dollar value of output is equal to the revenues received by that producer. From the viewpoint of the consumer, the dollar value of the output is equal to the amount that the consumer spent to purchase those goods and services from the business. Payrolls are a second impact measure, made up of employee compensation (the dollar value of payments received by workers as wages and benefits). 4 Employment is the third impact measure, the number of jobs supported by the revenues created by the airport. The Airport Authority staff at Gateway Airport was very helpful in providing data in support of this study. Data collected included current and historical information on airport operations and activity, as well as information on types of airport businesses and number of employees. Telephone surveys were conducted to follow up with individual on-airport employers. 1.2 Economic Impact Components The components of economic impacts include both on-airport and off-airport economic activity. These impacts encompass the revenues of firms, budgets of government agencies, their employment, and the payroll outlays to workers. 1.2.1 Direct Impacts The on-airport and off-airport activity creates direct impacts which measure the initial revenues, employment, and earnings associated with the presence of the airport. The on-airport direct impacts occur when businesses and agencies on the airport generate sales and revenues, hire workers, and make payments to employees. Offairport direct impacts result when visitors that arrive by air spend for goods and services in the region such as lodging, restaurants, auto rental, or retail items. These expenditures create revenues for businesses and jobs and income for workers. 1.2. 2 Secondary Impacts In addition to the initial benefits from direct impacts, secondary impacts (involving multiplier effects) are created when the initial spending by airport employers or visitors circulates and recycles through the regional economy. The secondary impacts measure the magnitude of successive rounds of this re-spending process. 1.2.2.1 Indirect Impacts There are two components that make up secondary impacts. One of these is known as the indirect impact of spending. This is a measure of the intermediate goods required to produce a volume of output. Indirect impacts measure the purchase of goods and services from suppliers and vendors by airport businesses, along with their employment and compensation paid to workers by suppliers. 1.2.2.2 Induced Impacts An additional secondary impact is known as the induced impact. Induced impacts measure the consumer spending of workers who produced both the direct impact and the indirect impact. For example, when an aircraft technician’s salary is spent for consumer goods, this contributes to additional employment and income for those businesses and workers in the general economy providing goods and services. Airport impact studies rely on multiplier factors from input-output models to estimate the impact of secondary spending on output, earnings and employment to determine indirect and induced impacts. The indirect and induced spending coefficients used for this study were from the IMPLAN input-output model based on data from the Arizona Department of Administration and the U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This model is frequently used for studying the economic contribution of airports across the nation. 5 1.2.3 Total Economic Impacts • $767.1 Million Revenues Total economic impacts are the combined sum of direct and secondary impacts created both on and off the airport. • $224.6 Million Payrolls 1.3 Economic Impacts FY 2013 1.3.4 Indirect Impacts The economic impacts created by Gateway Airport for FY 2013 are shown in Table 1.1. The initial direct revenue stream of $767.1 million created by the presence of Gateway Airport was estimated to stimulate additional (indirect) activity by suppliers of intermediate goods and services of: 1.3.1 On-Airport Direct Impacts Gateway Airport employers include private and public organizations and construction firms. All on-airport economic units contributed direct impacts of: • 6,425 Jobs • $234.8 Million Revenues • $73.9 Million Payrolls • $373.1 Million Revenues • 1,684 Jobs • $118.3 Million Payrolls 1.3.5 Induced Impacts • 2,042 On-Airport Jobs When employees of airport businesses and agencies, regional hospitality firms, and suppliers spend their paychecks as consumers, this creates induced impacts of: 1.3.2 Air Visitor Direct Impacts When air travelers make off-airport expenditures, these outlays create revenues (sales) for firms that supply goods and services to visitors. Visitor spending created annual direct impacts of: • $394.0 Million Revenues • $106.3 Million Payrolls • 4,383 Off-Airport Jobs 1.3.3 Combined Direct Impacts The combined direct impacts represent the sum of on-airport and off-airport (visitor) revenues, earnings, and employment due to the presence of the airport. The direct impacts were: • $309.3 Million Revenues • $93.5 Million Payrolls • 2,361 Jobs 1.3.6 Combined Secondary Impacts The combined secondary impacts are the sum of supplier activity (indirect impacts) and the spending by employees as consumers (induced impacts): • $544.1 Million Revenues • $167.4 Million Payrolls • 4,045 Jobs 6 The indirect and induced secondary impacts represent revenues, payrolls and jobs created in the general economy, other than aviation and visitor services, including manufacturing, finance, health care, and other industries. presence of Gateway Airport are the sum of direct impacts and secondary impacts, and in FY 2013 were: 1.3.7 Total Economic Impacts • 10,470 Jobs • $1.3 Billion Revenues • $392.0 Million Payrolls The total economic impacts created by the TABLE 1.1 Economic Impact Measures: FY 2013 Gateway Airport ECONOMIC IMPACT MEASURES Source On-Airport Private Firms, Government Agencies & Capital Improvement Projects Revenues Payrolls Employment $373,152,000 $118,276,000 2,042 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 767,126,000 224,582,000 6,425 Indirect Spending by Suppliers & Vendors 234,763,000 73,945,000 1,684 Induced Spending by Workers & Proprietors of Businesses 309,343,000 93,509,000 2,361 544,106,000 167,454,000 4,045 1,311,232,000 392,036,000 10,470 Air Visitors Direct Impacts: Sum of On-Airport & Air Visitor Activity Secondary Impacts (Multiplier Effects) TOTAL IMPACTS 7 SECTION 2: ON-AIRPORT IMPACTS This section provides details on the economic impacts associated with activity on site at Gateway Airport. Table 2.1 illustrates the annualized employment, payrolls and value of output (revenues) produced by airport tenants in FY 2013. Only firms and public agencies within the airport property boundaries are included. Values shown for revenues, employment, and earnings are the direct impacts and do not include multiplier effects of secondary impacts. The airport attracts many aviation customers and clients from the region and nation seeking high-level technical and maintenance support available from major firms such as Cessna, Embraer, Lockheed Martin and Able Engineering and Component Services. The airport has become a locus for advanced aviation related research. Aviation education opportunities are available on the airport, extending from applied courses in aeronautics to formal flight training and advanced study. 2.1 On-Airport Revenues On-airport economic activity created annual revenue flows of $373.1 million (including $16.4 million for capital improvement projects). The value of output (revenues) for private companies on the airport was $330.4 million. Operating budgets reported by governmental units were $26.3 million. Businesses at Gateway Airport offer passenger services including airline transport and other travel services, such as auto rental. Expansion of service by Allegiant, now serving 34 destinations, and the presence of Spirit Airlines in the market resulted in an increased passenger count in FY 2013 to 1.4 million, an all-time high figure for Gateway Airport. Full support services available for the aviation community include aircraft maintenance, avionics, aircraft storage, and fueling for various categories of aircraft including piston, turboprop, jet, and rotary. Government agencies include the Gateway Airport Authority staff, police and fire, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the airport contract tower. In addition, the airport houses U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement and the U.S. Interagency Fire Center. 2.2 Employment and Payrolls There are 51 private employers on the airport and 8 public, administrative, or government units. Surveys and interviews with on-airport employers provided a tally of 2,042 jobs (including an average of 130 workers for capital improvement projects). The ratio of private sector jobs to overall jobs was 1,749/2,042 or 86 percent of the total. Airport employers reported annual payrolls of $118.3 million received by workers. The average overall wage for workers on the airport was $57,922, including full and part time employees. 8 TABLE 2.1 On-Airport Impacts: Revenues, Payrolls and Employment Gateway Airport IMPACT MEASURES Sources of On-Airport Impacts Revenues Payrolls Employment $330,406,000 93,890,000 1,619 16,421,000 6,900,000 130 26,325,000 17,486,000 293 373,152,000 118,276,000 2,042 On-Airport Private Employers (51) Commercial Airlines Auto Rental, Food Service, Retail Avionics & Maintenance Major Overhaul & Repairs Aviation Education & Training Air Medical Transport Aircraft Storage & Corporate Aviation Aviation Simulation & Research Industrial & Commercial Facilities Capital Improvement Projects (5 Year Average Value) Government Agencies/Services (8) Gateway Airport Authority Customs & Border Protection Interagency Fire Center Immigration & Customs Enforcement Transportation Security Administration Air Traffic Control Tower City of Mesa Police & Fire Protection ON-AIRPORT IMPACTS Source: Survey of Employers and Gateway Airport Authority, FY 2013 9 On-airport employment classified by broad industry groups is shown in Table 2.2. The largest category (602 jobs) is related to aircraft services, particularly major maintenance, overhaul and refurbishing. TABLE 2.2 Employment by Industry Group Gateway Airport Industry Employment Aircraft Parts, Overhaul & Refurbishing 602 Transport of Passengers & Cargo 403 Professional, Business & Technical Services 186 Air Transportation Support Services 139 Air Passenger Services (Food, Retail, Auto Rental) 130 Capital Projects, Design & Construction 130 Education/Training 109 All Other Private Firms 50 Government Services 293 TOTAL 2,042 Source: Survey of Employers and Gateway Airport Authority, FY 2013 Second in importance is transport of cargo and passengers (403 jobs). This industry group includes not only commercial airlines, but cargo carriers and firms with government and private contracts for moving people, goods and equipment by air. The professional, business and technical services group (186 jobs) includes consulting, research and communication firms that serve on-airport clients as well as other off-airport markets in the metro area and nationally. Air transportation support firms (139 jobs) primarily serve aircraft and support aircraft operations, while air passenger service firms (130 jobs) provide retail goods and services such as food and auto rental to passengers. Average annual construction employment (130 jobs) includes design, remodel, and new buildings as well as maintenance of runways, facilities, other structures, fencing, and drainage. Training activity (109 jobs) serves beginning and advanced flyers. All other private firms (50 jobs) include both aviation and non-aviation businesses, ranging from fitness and real estate to model aircraft manufacturing and sales. The 1,749 private sector jobs (including construction) plus the 293 government service jobs combine for the total of 2,042 jobs on the airport in FY 2013. 2.3 Outlays by Private Firms Revenues received by private firms on the airport recycle through the regional economy as illustrated in Table 2.3. Gross sales by on-airport businesses were $330.4 million in FY 2013. Through analysis of inputs and outputs for industries on the airport, estimates can be derived for the amount paid to suppliers and vendors for purchase of intermediate goods and services used during the year. 10 The analysis showed that private businesses on the airport injected $182.4 million into the local economy for purchases of goods and services from suppliers. TABLE 2.3 On-Airport Private Revenue & Outlays Gateway Airport Category Output (Revenues) Value $330,406,000 Paid to Suppliers & Vendors for Inputs Paid to Employees 182,402,000 93,890,000 Retained by Proprietors & Businesses as Income 38,925,000 Received by Governments For Sales, Excise, and All Other Taxes & Fees 15,189,000 Source: Derived from analysis of input-output relationships obtained from IMPLAN model. The cost of labor for businesses on the airport was $93.9 million. The remainder ($38.9 million) was retained by business or paid as taxes ($15.2 million) to state, local and federal governments. 2.4 Off-Airport Employment Following original FAA guidelines, airport economic impact studies do not include activity such as revenues or employment for businesses or agencies located outside airport boundary lines. But in recent years it has been recognized that airports are an important catalyst for regional economic development. Modern metropolitan airports typically serve as a magnet for business location. Land near airports is normally zoned for business, and airports with linkage to neighboring industrial parks are a feature of growthoriented communities. Similarly, educational institutions and public agencies are often found nearby airports, which can provide not only instruction and case studies for students but also part time jobs and practical training. The following institutions and organizations are not located on airport property, and therefore are not included in the airport economic impact. However, they bear close proximity to Gateway Airport and contribute to the economic footprint of the surrounding area. ASU Polytechnic Chandler-Gilbert Community College East Valley Institute of Technology House of Refuge East SW Veterans Affairs Health Clinic U.S. Department of the Army. The combined employment (full and part time) of these organizations is 2,865 workers. The educational institutions have 16,944 students, with more than 11,000 accounted for by ASU Polytechnic campus. 2.5 Capital Improvement Projects Capital projects are vital for airports to maintain safety and meet rigorous aviation standards. At Gateway Airport, increases in aviation activity have required continued improvement of facilities and infrastructure to provide for growth. Capital spending for airport improvements, such as the recent terminal expansion, creates jobs and injects dollars into the local economy. This contribution is especially important at a time when commercial building is still not fully 11 recovered in the metropolitan area. The airport spent a total of $25.4 million in 2013 (Table 2.4). Some of the projects during the year included upgrading a major maintenance, repair and overall facility to attract a large employer, runway improvements, continued terminal design and expansion activity, and various building renovations. Total airport capital improvement outlays over the past five years sum to $82.1 million. The average annual expenditure over the period is $16.4 million. This five year average was used in the impact analysis to smooth the effect of year-to-year fluctuations in capital spending. Although specific figures are not available, it should be noted that Gateway Airport has a strong history of private sector investment as well. Major private projects in recent years include hangar and office facilities for new employers who have contributed increases in jobs, payrolls and revenues to the overall economic impact of the airport. TABLE 2.4 Capital Improvement Projects: Five Year Summary ($ thousands) Gateway Airport Source FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Total Average Airport Authority $17,645 $13,059 $10,213 $15,808 $25,376 $82,101 $16,420 Source: Gateway Airport Authority 12 SECTION 3: AIR VISITOR IMPACTS Gateway Airport attracts commercial airline and general aviation visitors from throughout the region and the nation who come to the area for business, recreational, and personal travel. The combined impact of airline and general aviation visitors was $394 million of revenues in FY 2013 (see Table 3.13), an increase of more than 400 percent over FY 2010. The sections below provide detail on the direct economic impacts from commercial and general aviation air travelers arriving at Gateway Airport in FY 2013. that the average party size for travel parties was 2.07 persons, leading to an estimated number of visitor travel parties arriving at Gateway Airport of 210,674 during the FY 2013 study period. TABLE 3.1 Airline Visitor Travel Patterns Gateway Airport Category Enplanements 3.1 Airline Visitors Percent Visitors During FY 2013 there were 728,155 airline enplanements at Gateway Airport. Through analysis of passenger origination data from the U. S. Department of Transportation, it was found that 60 percent or 436,893 enplaning passengers were visitors to the area (Table 3.1). The FY 2013 airline visitor figures are more than double those recorded in FY 2010 (211,915) using a similar methodology. Number of Visitors Information on air visitor spending and travel patterns was based on figures compiled by the Behavior Research Center, Inc., from periodic surveys commissioned by the Mesa Convention and Visitors Bureau. More than one half (58%) of visitors stated that the main purpose of their travel was for visiting friends and relatives. Nearly four out of ten visitors (37%) described the purpose of their trip to Arizona as “pleasure or vacation.” An additional five percent of respondents stated they were traveling for business related reasons. The surveys of airline passengers revealed Value 728,155 60% 436,893 Visit Friends & Relatives 58% Pleasure or Personal 37% Business 5% Average Party Size 2.07 Number of Parties 210,674 Spending Per Party $1,930 Visitor Spending* $406,600,000 *Includes on-airport auto rental spending Source: Visitor Survey, Behavior Research Center, Inc., and Mesa Convention and Visitors Bureau; figures are rounded for exposition The average spending per party per trip was $1,930 (figures are rounded to simplify tables). Multiplication of $1,930 by 210,674 annual airline travel parties yields total airline visitor spending of $406.6 million for FY 2013. (As explained below, this figure includes on-airport spending for auto rental, which is netted out in the following tables in 13 order to differentiate on-airport and offairport economic impacts.) The average length of stay reported in the most recent survey available from the Mesa Convention and Visitors Bureau was 5.8 days. Multiplying length of stay by the number of visitors, there were 2,533,979 visitor days from airline passengers in FY 2013. On a typical day, there were 6,942 airline travelers in the airport service area, contributing visitor spending revenues exceeding $1 million each day. The figures for spending per person per trip can be used to derive the economic value of visitor expenditures from a typical passenger aircraft departing Gateway Airport (Table 3.2). TABLE 3.2 Economic Value of Departing Airliner Gateway Airport Average Visitor Spending Per Aircraft Air Carrier Departures Enplaning Passengers Average Passengers/Aircraft 5,063 728,155 144 Percent Visitors 60% Average Visitors/Aircraft 86 Trip Expenditures/Person $931 Value of Departing Airliner $80,066 Source: Visitor Survey Data number of visitors per aircraft is 86, who spent an average $931 per person per trip while in the area. Total airline visitor spending of $80,066 has been injected into the local economy for each departing airliner, on average. The top 20 airports of origination for visitors at Gateway Airport are shown in Table 3.3. TABLE 3.3 Top Airline Visitor Originations by City Gateway Airport Rank 1 Visitors Origination City 21,120 Bellingham, WA 2 19,615 Las Vegas, NV 3 19,275 Fargo, ND 4 18,740 Cedar Rapids, IA 5 18,380 Sioux Falls, SD 6 17,860 Oakland, CA 7 14,900 Bismarck, ND 8 14,805 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 9 14,740 Great Falls, MT 10 14,115 Minot, ND 11 14,005 Rockford, IL 12 13,035 Grand Forks, ND 13 12,505 Peoria, IL 14 11,895 Billings, MT 15 11,110 Rapid City, SD 16 11,005 Missoula, MT 17 10,860 Moline, IL 18 9,855 Grand Island, NE 19 9,845 Grand Rapids, MI 20 9,760 Eugene, OR Source: U. S. Dept. of Transportation, Origin & Destination Data Base Based on current characteristics of Gateway Airport passenger aircraft, the average 14 These top 20 originating airports accounted for more than two-thirds (68%) of visitors. In all, visitors originated at 72 airports across the nation in FY 2013. These figures were compiled from origination and destination ticket information made available through the Origin and Destination Data Base of the U. S. Department of Transportation. Bellingham, Washington was the originating airport for the greatest number of visitors (21,120) followed closely by Las Vegas and Fargo, North Dakota. Four North Dakota airports appeared in the listing of top 20 visitor origination airports, which contributed to the ranking of North Dakota as the state with the most originating visitors to Gateway Airport in FY 2013 (Table 3.4). With 61,335 visitors, North Dakota exceeded second-ranked Montana by more than 30 percent. These top 10 states accounted for three-fourths of all visitors. TABLE 3.4 Top Airline Visitor Originations by State Gateway Airport Rank 1 Visitors Origination State 61,335 North Dakota 2 46,595 Montana 3 42,810 Illinois 4 29,760 Washington 5 29,490 South Dakota 6 19,615 Nevada 7 18,975 Colorado 8 18,740 Iowa 9 17,970 California 10 15,795 Texas Source: U. S. Dept. of Transportation, Origin & Destination Data Base Spending by category and resulting economic impacts from all airline visitors are shown in Table 3.5. (Note: The ground transportation category has been adjusted to net out rental car spending outlays directly on the airport. Before adjustment, ground transportation spending by airline visitors from survey results was calculated as $29.9 million. However, revenue reports from auto rental firms indicate that more than one half of this amount was paid out for on-airport rental cars and therefore this component of visitor spending ($15.7 million) has already been accounted for in the on-airport spending totals set out in Table 2.1) After the adjustment for on-airport car rental, total off-airport spending by airline passengers was $391.2 million. The largest spending category was food and drink ($324 per person per trip), leading to total revenues for restaurants and bars of $141.3 million. Food and drink was also the category with the most jobs created (2,255) by airline visitor spending within the region. Retail goods and services was the second largest spending category with outlays of $129.3 million, creating 773 jobs. The visitor surveys consistently show that at least 60 percent of visitors stay with friends or relatives rather than in paid lodging. The spending figures shown in Table 3.5 for lodging outlays per person per trip ($159) are based on all respondents, not just those who stayed at hotels, resorts, or other paid lodging. It should be noted that all other values in the per person spending column also include responses from those who reported no spending in a specific category. 15 TABLE 3.5 Economic Impacts of Airline Visitors: Revenues, Payrolls and Employment Gateway Airport Category Per Person Per Trip Revenues Payrolls Jobs $159 $69,214,000 $21,751,000 574 Food/Drink 324 141,354,000 48,588,000 2,255 Retail Sales 296 129,299,000 15,084,000 773 Entertainment 85 37,365,000 17,593,000 687 Ground Transport 67 13,941,000 2,502,000 64 931 391,173,000 105,518,000 4,353 Lodging TOTAL Note: Visitor spending from Behavior Research Center, Inc., and Mesa Convention and Visitors Bureau surveys. Payrolls and employment figures were derived from the IMPLAN input-output model based on data from the Arizona Department of Administration and the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. Ground Transportation figures do not include on-airport auto rental spending of $15.7 million included in On-Airport Impacts in Table 2.1. 3.2 General Aviation Visitors In order to analyze general aviation traffic patterns at the airport, a database of 5,500 general aviation flight plans involving Gateway Airport as either destination or origin for travel was obtained from the FAA. In this sample, the most frequent source of itinerant flights arriving at Gateway Airport was Ryan Field in Tucson. Second in importance was Tucson International, followed by Love Field, Sierra Vista, and Montgomery Field rounding out the top five (Table 3.6). Overall, arriving general aviation aircraft originated at more than 150 airports around the nation. Excluding activity by commercial and chartered airliners, there were 66,604 itinerant operations at Gateway Airport in FY 2013. Most of these (54,292) were accounted for by private general aviation aircraft. (Note: in order to calculate economic impacts, operations by air taxi and military flights were included in the analysis below, since each includes passengers or crews that potentially make expenditures while they are visiting the region. Calculations in the following tables for General Aviation or GA include air taxi and military visitors also.) 16 An operation is a take-off or a landing. Local operations typically involve based aircraft performing take-offs and landings for training or other local flying activity. Itinerant operations involve an origination or destination airport other than Gateway Airport. TABLE 3.6 GA Aircraft Origination Gateway Airport 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Rank and Origin State Ryan Field Tucson International Earnest A. Love Field Sierra Vista Montgomery Field Scottsdale John Wayne Airport El Paso International McCarran International Nogales Boise Air Terminal Wichita Mid Continental Yuma MCAS North Las Vegas Centennial AZ AZ AZ AZ CA AZ CA TX NV AZ ID KS AZ NV CO Source: FAA Flight Plan Data Base and Airport IQ Data Base/Flight records. Both based and non-based aircraft contribute to itinerant activity on any given day. When a based aircraft returns to Gateway Airport from Orange County, California, for example, that is an itinerant operation. When an aircraft based at another airport arrives at Gateway Airport, that aircraft is classified as a transient itinerant. It is these transient aircraft that represent outside spending brought to the airport service area, and are therefore an important source of economic impacts. According to analysis of flight records, there were 15,787 transient aircraft arrivals at Gateway Airport in FY 2013. Of these, 2,526 brought overnight visitors and the remaining 13,261 stayed for one day or less. Separate analyses were conducted for those GA visitors with an overnight stay and those whose visit was one day or less in duration. To compute a conservative estimate of economic impacts of GA visitors, one day aircraft were further partitioned into those staying less than 4 hours and 4 hours or more (Table 3.7). TABLE 3.7 General Aviation Transient Aircraft Gateway Airport Item Annual Value Itinerant AC Arrivals 33,302 Transient AC Arrivals 15,787 Overnight Transient AC 2,526 One Day Transient AC 13,261 Stayed 4 Hrs. or More 2,842 Source: Derived from FAA Flight Plan Data Base and Gateway Airport records. Includes private GA aircraft, air taxi and military. Visitor spending estimates were computed only for those aircraft staying 4 hours or longer at Gateway Airport, reflecting the fact that many aircraft stop only for fuel and travelers do not spend for food, retail shopping, or ground transportation off the airport. There were 2,842 general aviation aircraft that stayed on the ground 4 hours or more during the year. 17 3.2.1 Overnight GA Visitors Information on visiting general aviation aircraft was obtained from a survey of visiting aircraft owners and pilots. Visitors were asked about the purpose of their trip, the size of the travel party, length of stay, type of lodging, and outlays by spending category. TABLE 3.8 General Aviation Overnight Visitors Gateway Airport Item Transient AC Arrivals Overnight Transient AC Avg. Party Size Number of Visitors Average Stay (days) Annual Value 15,787 2,526 2.8 7,073 2.1 Visitor Days 14,853 Spending per Aircraft $1,073 Total Expenditures combined total of 14,853 visitor days. Spending per travel party per aircraft averaged $1,073. Total spending by all GA overnight visitors summed to $2.7 million for the year. Table 3.9 shows the percentage distribution of outlays by overnight travel parties at Gateway Airport. Lodging accounts for 31 percent of visitor spending, averaging $329 per aircraft travel party. Food and drink, at $299 per overnight aircraft, made up 28 percent. Retail, at $195 and 18 percent, was next in importance, followed by ground transport spending per aircraft at $161, and 15 percent for the average travel party. Entertainment was the smallest expenditure category, at $89 for each visiting overnight general aviation travel party. TABLE 3.9 Spending Per Overnight GA Aircraft Gateway Airport Category Spending Percent $2,710,000 Source: Derived from FAA Flight Plan Data Base, Gateway Airport Records and GA Visitor Survey. The travel patterns underlying the calculation of overnight GA visitor economic impacts are shown in Table 3.8 for the 2,526 transient overnight aircraft arrivals during the year. The average party size was 2.8 persons and the average overnight travel party stayed in the area for 2.1 days. There were 7,073 overnight visitors for the year with a $329 31 Food/Drink 299 28 Retail 195 18 Entertainment 89 8 Transportation 161 15 $1,073 100 Lodging TOTAL Source: GA Visitor Survey 18 3.2.2 Day GA Visitors During the year, there were an estimated 13,261 aircraft that stopped at the airport for one day. Some were only on the ground for a few minutes while others were parked several hours when the travel party had their aircraft serviced, pursued a personal activity, or conducted business. The economic impacts from arriving aircraft travel parties are of two types. Those pilots or aircraft owners that buy fuel or have their aircraft serviced on the airport are making purchases which contribute to the revenue stream received by aviation businesses on the airport. That type of spending creates output, employment, and earning on the airport. Those economic impacts are shown in Table 2.1 as on-airport impacts. TABLE 3.10 General Aviation Day Visitors Gateway Airport Item Annual Value One Day Transient AC 13,261 Stay >/= 4 Hours For the purposes of this study, those travel parties that arrived and departed in less than four hours were assumed to have not left the airport and not contributed any significant spending off the airport, although they may have purchased goods or service on-site. Of the 13,261 transient aircraft that stopped at Gateway Airport for a day during the past year, there were 2,842 that were parked for more than four hours but not overnight (Table 3.10). The average stay in the area for those travel parties was 7.0 hours, according to arrival and departure records, with a range of 4 to 12 hours. The four hour day trip aircraft brought 6,820 visitors to the airport service area during the year. The average spending per one-day aircraft was $135. The total economic impacts created by off-airport spending by one-day general aviation visitors tallied to $384,000 of output (revenues or sales off the airport). 2,842 Average Stay (Hours) 7.0 Avg. Party Size 2.4 Number of GA Visitors 6,820 Spending per Aircraft $135 Total Expenditures However, if the aircraft travel party leaves the airport to visit a corporate site, conduct a business meeting, or attend a sporting or cultural event, these off-airport activities will generate spending that creates jobs and earnings in the local community. $384,000 Source: Derived from FAA Flight Plan Data Base and GA Visitor Survey. The largest expenditure category for oneday visiting travel parties was food and drink, which averaged $72 per aircraft travel party for the day and accounted for 53 percent of outlays (Table 3.11). Spending for ground transportation was the second largest category, at $51 per aircraft. 3. 3 Combined GA Visitor Spending Table 3.12 shows the economic impacts resulting from spending in the region by combined overnight and day general aviation visitors arriving at Gateway 19 Airport. To recap, there were 15,787 transient general aviation aircraft that brought visitors to the airport during the year. Of these, 2,526 were arriving overnight general aviation aircraft and 2,842 were one- day visiting aircraft parked long enough to make off-airport expenditures. TABLE 3.11 Spending Per Day Visitor Aircraft Gateway Airport Category Spending Percent Lodging $0 0 Food/Drink 72 53 Retail 7 5 Entertainment 5 4 Transportation 51 38 135 100 TOTAL Source: GA Visitor Survey Each overnight travel party spent an average of $1,073 during their trip to the airport service area and travelers on each day visitor aircraft spent a reported $135 per trip. Multiplying the expenditures for each category of spending by the number of aircraft yields the total outlays for lodging, food and drink, entertainment, retail spending, and ground transportation due to GA visitors during the year. However, since a major portion of auto rental was accounted for by on-airport rental firms, total spending by GA visitors was adjusted to reflect off-airport ground transport spending only. Therefore, GA visitor spending, net of on-airport auto rental, was $2.8 million (on-airport auto rental is included in Table 2.1). There were 21,673 visitor days attributable to general aviation travelers during the year. Sixty-eight percent of visitor days (14,853) were due to overnight GA travelers and thirty- two percent (6,820) were from oneday visitors. On an average day, there were 59 visitors in the service area that had arrived by general aviation aircraft. Average daily spending by all GA air travelers was $6,900 within the regional economy. The average economic impact of any arriving transient aircraft (combined overnight and day visitors staying more than 4 hours) was $505. Spending for food and beverages accounted for 36 percent of GA visitor spending, with outlays of $959,000 for the year. Spending by general aviation visitors for lodging was $831,000 or 31 percent of the total. Taken together, these two categories accounted for two-thirds of the economic impacts from GA visitors to Gateway Airport. Of total off-airport spending of $2.8 million created by GA visitors, an average of 30 cents of each dollar was used within the region by employers as earnings paid out to workers. Wages taken home by tourism/visitor sector workers for spending in their own community summed to $824,000 during the year. Payrolls in the food and drink services industry accounted for one third of total earnings from GA visitor spending. Expenditures by GA visitors created 31 direct jobs in the tourist sector in the service area. Food and drink spending created the greatest number of jobs (15) followed by lodging (7) and entertainment (5). 20 TABLE 3.12 Economic Impacts from GA Visitors - Revenues, Payrolls and Employment Gateway Airport Spending per AC Category Lodging Overnight Day $329 Revenues Payrolls Employment $831,000 $261,000 7 Food/Drink 299 $72 959,000 330,000 15 Retail Sales 195 7 509,000 59,000 3 Entertainment 89 5 239,000 128,000 5 Ground Trans. 161 51 253,000 46,000 1 1,073 135 2,791,000 824,000 31 TOTAL Note: Payrolls and employment figures were derived from the IMPLAN input-output model based on data from the Arizona Department of Administration and the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. Employment is not necessarily full time equivalents; includes full and some part time workers, figures rounded to head counts. Ground Transportation figures do not include on-airport auto rental spending included in On-Airport Impacts in Table 2.1. 3.4 Combined Airline and GA Visitors Airline and general aviation visitors combined to spend $394 million in the service area during the year, creating 4,383 jobs off the airport with earnings to workers of $106.3 million (see Table 3.13). There were 2.5 million visitor days attributable to commercial and general aviation travelers during the year. Ninety-nine percent of visitor days were due to commercial air travelers and one percent of days were from general aviation transient visitors. On an average day, there were 7,002 air visitors in the service area. Average daily spending by all air travelers was $1.1 million. Table 3.13 shows that the largest spending category by aviation visitors was expenditures for food and drink, with outlays of $142.3 million, or 39 percent of the total. Spending for retail goods accounted for 36 percent of visitor spending and was the second largest category, with outlays of $129.8 million. 21 TABLE 3.13 Economic Impacts of Airline and GA Visitors: Revenues, Payrolls and Employment Gateway Airport Category Revenues Payrolls Employment Lodging $70,045,000 $22,016,000 581 Food/Drink 142,313,000 48,911,000 2,270 Retail Sales 129,808,000 15,143,000 776 Entertainment 37,604,000 17,695,000 691 Ground Transport 14,204,000 2,541,000 65 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 TOTAL Note: Payrolls and employment figures were derived from the IMPLAN input-output model based on data from the Arizona Department of Administration and the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. Employment is not necessarily full time equivalents; includes full and some part time workers. Ground Transportation figures do not include on-airport auto rental spending included in On-Airport Impacts in Table 2.1. 22 SECTION 4: A DAY AT GATEWAY AIRPORT Airports serve the flying public and support the regional economy every day of the year. On a typical day at Gateway Airport, there are more than 400 overall operations and 28 airliners arrive and depart. Including all direct and secondary sources, Gateway Airport contributes a daily economic impact of $3.6 million to the local economy (Table 4.1). During each day of the year, businesses and other tenants at Gateway Airport generate $1.0 million of revenues. Revenues and production support jobs, not only for the suppliers and users of aviation services, but throughout the economy. Each day Gateway Airport provides 2,042 jobs directly on the airport and in total supports 10,470 area workers. On an average day during the year, 3,988 passengers (residents and visitors) move through the airport. Each day there are 7,002 Gateway Airport air visitors in the region. Spending by these visitors on a typical day injects $1.1 million into the local economy. TABLE 4.1 Activity Measures and Economic Impacts for an Average Day Gateway Airport Activity Average Day (FY 2013) All Aircraft Operations 446 Aircraft Arrive and Depart Air Carrier Operations 28 Airliner Operations Daily On-Airport Direct Revenues $1.0 Million Revenues Daily On-Airport Direct Employment 2,042 Jobs on the Airport Airline Passengers 3,988 Passengers Daily Air Visitors (Airline + GA) 7,002 Visitors in the Region Daily Air Visitor Spending $1.1 Million Visitor Spending Daily Total Employment in the Region 10,470 Regional Jobs Supported Total Economic Impact of the Airport $3.6 Mil. Economic Impact Daily Source: Derived from activity reports from Gateway Airport and IMPLAN regional input-output model 23 SECTION 5: ECONOMIC IMPACT GROWTH Activity and economic impact measures for Gateway Airport have increased substantially in the five years since FY 2008 and are up strongly since FY 2010. Impact studies utilizing a methodology similar to the current report were completed in FY 2008 and FY 2010, allowing an examination of growth over the recent past. Table 5.1 compares current FY 2013 direct economic impacts of Gateway Airport with FY 2008. Dollar figures were adjusted from 2008 to 2013 values so the changes shown represent real (inflation-adjusted) growth. The most striking comparison is in the air visitor spending category, with revenues to firms in the hospitality and tourism sector up by nearly ten times. The large increase in total spending was primarily due to the much greater number of passengers. Airline visitors increased from 71,407 in the FY 2008 study to 436,893 for FY 2013, an increase of more than six times. In addition, spending per person per trip was greater in FY 2013. In FY 2008, per person spending (in 2013 dollars) was $496. In the FY 2013 visitor surveys, per person TABLE 5.1 Comparison of Direct Economic Impacts: FY 2013 vs. FY 2008 Gateway Airport On-Airport Activity FY 2008 (in 2013$) FY 2013 Revenues Payrolls Employment $218,371,000 $79,636,000 1,251 373,152,000 118,276,000 2,042 Percent Change Air Visitors 71% 49% 63% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2008 (in 2013$) 39,778,000 14,709,000 527 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 FY 2013 Percent Change All Direct Impacts 890% 623% 732% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2008 (in 2013$) 258,149,000 94,345,000 1,778 FY 2013 767,126,000 224,582,000 6,425 197% 138% 261% Percent Change Note: All figures expressed in 2013 dollars. 24 spending was almost double this amount, at $931. Since 2008 was the first year of the national recession, it is likely that visitor spending was weaker than would be expected in a normal year. spending, direct on site and visitor employment related to the presence of Gateway Airport more than tripled over the five year period, rising from 1,778 to 6,425 direct jobs in FY 2010. On-airport revenues increased by 71 percent between FY 2008 and FY 2013. This increase is linked to growth in the number and size of employers on the airport. The number of on-airport jobs increased by 63 percent, from 1,251 to 2,042, along with a sharp increase in payrolls. Because of the strong influence of increased visitor Increases in the direct economic impacts between FY 2010 and FY 2013 are set out in Table 5.2. On-airport employment increased over this period as well, rising from 1,145 to 2,042. The recession likely affected on-site employment in FY 2010. The Arizona economy lost jobs in TABLE 5.2 Comparison of Direct Economic Impacts: FY 2013 vs. FY 2010 Gateway Airport On-Airport Activity FY 2010 (in 2013$) FY 2013 Revenues Payrolls Employment $331,624,000 $72,980,000 1,145 373,152,000 118,276,000 2,042 Percent Change Air Visitors 13% 62% 78% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2010(in 2013$) 73,871,000 26,014,000 1,024 393,974,000 106,306,000 4,383 FY 2013 Percent Change All Direct Impacts 433% 309% 328% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2010 (in 2013$) 405,495,000 98,994,000 2,169 FY 2013 767,126,000 224,582,000 6,425 89% 127% 196% Percent Change Note: All figures expressed in 2013 dollars. 25 both 2009 and 2010, experiencing a percentage decline in employment greater than any state other than Nevada. Therefore, from a low point in FY 2010, airport employers expanded and replaced lost jobs, while new firms brought additional jobs as the economy recovered into FY 2013. Between FY 2010 and FY 2013, visitor spending rose from $73.8 million to $394 million, a four-fold increase. Air visitors more than doubled, from 211,915 in FY 2010 to 436,893 in FY 2013. (It should be noted the survey methodology for visitor spending differed somewhat in the 2010 period. The FY 2013 and FY 2008 surveys asked visitors to list their outlays by category, while in FY 2010 the survey asked for a lump sum figure per trip. The lump sum methodology could have caused some to forget or leave out certain spending categories. Inflation-adjusted total economic impacts (incorporating all multiplier effects) increased strongly in FY 2013 compared to both FY 2008 and FY 2010 (Table 5.3). Since FY 2010, total regional employment supported by Gateway Airport has more than doubled, payrolls have nearly doubled, and revenues created in the area have grown by 79 percent. TABLE 5.3 Comparison of Total Economic Impacts: FY 2013 vs. FY 2010 & FY 2008 (Including All Secondary Impacts) Gateway Airport Total Economic Impacts Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2008 (in 2013$) $580,055,000 $226,962,000 4,075 FY 2013 1,311,232,000 392,036,000 10,470 Percent Change Total Economic Impacts 126% 73% 157% Revenues Payrolls Employment FY 2010 (in 2013$) 733,885,000 $201,134,000 4,191 1,311,232,000 392,036,000 10,470 FY 2013 Percent Change 79% 95% 150% Note: All figures expressed in 2013 dollars. 26 5835 South Sossaman Road Mesa, Arizona 85212-6014 (480) 988-7600 phxmesagateway.org