2010 Transit Life Cycle Report High Capacity/Light Rail Transit ������������ ������ ��� ��������������������� ������� �������������������� �� ����������� ���������� ���� �������� ��� ������������������������������� ������� ������ �� �������� ������ ���� ������������ ���������������������������� �������������������������������� ���� ���� ������������������������������������������� ��������������� ������������ April 2010 ���������������� �������� �� ���� ��� ��� ������������ ���� ���������� �� ������������� ��� ����������� ���� ���� ����������� ������������ �� ����� ������� ������� ��� �� ������������� ������������ ������� ���������� ���������� ����������� �������� ������� ������� ������� ����������� �������� �������� �������� �������� �������� ��� �������� ������������ ��������� �������� �������� ����������� ��������� ���������� �������� Table of Contents 1.0 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 1 2.0 GUIDING PRINCIPLES........................................................................................ 1 3.0 TLCP UPDATE .................................................................................................... 1 4.0 PROJECT SCHEDULES ..................................................................................... 3 5.0 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................. 8 6.0 CAPITAL COST ASSUMPTIONS........................................................................ 9 7.0 SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 11 8.0 OPERATIONS.................................................................................................... 11 9.0 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 12 APPENDIX.................................................................................................................... 14 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. i April 2010 List of Figures Figure 1: Regional Transportation Plan HCT/LRT System Map...................................... 5 Figure 2: Federal Transit Administration Project Development Process ......................... 6 Figure 3: Regional Transportation Plan HCT/LRT System Schedule.............................. 7 List of Tables Table 1: 2010 Life Cycle Program Changes.................................................................... 2 Table 2: Project Development Process HCT/LRT Project Phases & Duration ................ 6 Table 3: Total Program Capital Funding Sources (YOE$)............................................... 8 Table 4: Project Capital Expenditures (YOE$) .............................................................. 10 Table 5: Total Capital Revenues & Expenses (YOE$) .................................................. 11 Table 6: Operating Costs by Project (YOE$)................................................................. 12 Table 7: Operating Revenues (YOE$)........................................................................... 12 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. ii April 2010 1.0 BACKGROUND The Regional Transportation Plan was adopted by the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) in 2003. With the successful passing of Proposition 400 in November 2004, the development of a Life Cycle program began for each of the three major transportation elements identified within the RTP over the 20-years of the program. The Regional Public Transportation Authority (RPTA) is responsible for preparation of the transit component of the Life Cycle program, and METRO has been further delegated the responsibility to prepare the high capacity transit/light rail transit (HCT/LRT) element. The HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program is updated annually for submittal to the RPTA and identifies project locations, project durations, project capital costs by phase, and project operating costs. Specifically, the program identifies project expenditures and revenues by project and funding categories in year-of-expenditure dollars. This results in an annualized cash flow estimate for the program. 2.0 GUIDING PRINCIPLES Along with the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program, guiding principles are necessary to continue to guide the program policies and procedures. The policies and procedures for the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program were approved by the METRO Board in October 2005 and continue to be the framework for development of the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program. The following are the guiding principles: 1. A defined and consistent process will be established to implement the voter approved Plan (Proposition 400 maps and capital improvements). 2. A defined and consistent process for Plan amendments and changes will be established. 3. Funding allocations will be regularly monitored and managed. 4. A defined and consistent process will be established to ensure that legislated compliance audit, reporting and performance requirements are met. 5. Budgeting and accounting systems will be established to manage Public Transportation Funds and monitor and report results. 6. Jurisdictional equity will be monitored annually over 20 years. 3.0 TLCP UPDATE METRO’s last update to the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program was approved by the Board in June 2009. Since that time there have been several proposed changes and revisions to the program shown in Table 1 which include: 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 1 April 2010 • • • • • Public Transportation Fund (PTF) Revenue Forecast: Reduced regional Public Transportation Fund (PTF) revenue forecast from $1.662 billion (2009) to $1.600 billion (2010) based on the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) revenue forecasts from the Proposition 400 regional sales tax. This equates to a reduction of approximately $62 million through the life of the tax. Return to Positive Sales Tax Growth: Based upon ADOT projections, sales tax growth for FY 2011 will be 2%; FY 2012-FY 2013 is 8-9%; FY 2014-FY 2015 is 13-15%; and FY 2016-FY 2026 is 6-7%. Local Sales Tax Revenue Forecast: Reduced local jurisdiction funding from $479 million to $288 million. This is a $191 million overall reduction primarily due to an updated forecast by the City of Phoenix for revenues associated with the Transit 2000 local sales tax. Inflation Rates: The Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) inflation rates were adjusted to reflect current market conditions. The 2009 TLCP Update utilized an inflation rate of 2% in FY2009 and 2010 and 3% annually in FY20112026. The 2010 TLCP Update uses the adjusted inflation rate of 0.5% in FY2011, 1.5% in FY2012, 2.5% in FY2013 and 3% annually in FY2014-2026. Cost Per Mile: The 2009 TLCP Update included a light rail cost per mile estimate of $77.4 million, which was based upon the recently completed Central Phoenix / East Valley starter line, as well as the Northwest Phase I project that recently completed design. The new cost per mile assumption used in the 2010 TLCP Update is $75.1 million per mile in 2010 dollars. This lower cost per mile assumption reflects deflation in the consumer price index, as well as lower material and construction costs associated with the Northwest Phase I cost estimates. Table 1: 2010 Life Cycle Program Changes Proposed Change PTF Revenue Forecast Local Sales Tax Revenue Forecast Inflation Rates 2009 TLCP Update $1,662M $479M FY 2009 = 2.0% FY 2010 = 2.0% FY 2011-2026 = 3.0% Cost Per Mile $77.4M (2009$) 2010 TLCP Update $1,600M $288M FY 2011 = 0.5% FY 2012 = 1.5% FY 2013 = 2.5% FY 2014 – FY 2026 = 3% $75.1M (2010$) In addition to the proposed changes and revisions to the 2010 HCT/LRT TLCP Update, significant progress has been made since the last update on each of the HCT/LRT corridors including: • Northwest Phase I: The design was completed in fall of 2009. The right-of-way acquisition process is underway and will be completed in fall 2010. Approximately $86.5 million has been spent or committed to date. Construction 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 2 April 2010 • • • • 4.0 was scheduled to start in summer 2009, but it is currently on-hold due to the reduced forecast for Transit 2000 revenues. As a result, the Northwest LRT Extension Phase I is being proposed to be split into three steps: o Step 1: Finish the right-of-way acquisition process (2010). o Step 2: Complete utility relocations and street improvements (2013). o Step 3: Complete environmental, design and construction of light rail improvements (2023). Central Mesa: In June 2009, the METRO Board adopted the Central Mesa LRT Extension locally preferred alternative (LPA), which includes a 3.1 mile extension of light rail along Main St. from the existing end-of-line at Sycamore to Mesa Drive. Tempe South: The Alternatives Analysis is anticipated to be complete in spring 2010. While a recommendation has not been made, the analysis is focusing on a modern streetcar solution along Mill Avenue from downtown Tempe to Southern Avenue. Phoenix West: The Alternatives Analysis is anticipated to be complete in spring 2010. An early recommendation adopted by the METRO Board in 2008 was a high capacity transit alignment within the I-10 right-of-way west of I-17. Two transit modes, Bus Rapid Transit and LRT, are still under consideration. The alignment east from I-17 to downtown Phoenix has been narrowed to one primary alignment option for each transit mode. An early action program, estimated to cost approximately $21 million, is also being proposed. It includes reinforcement of the underground Cityscape garage (downtown Phoenix) for LRT loads and construction of a transit ramp connecting the I-10 median and I17 southbound frontage road to initially be used by RAPID and express buses. Glendale: Phase I of the Alternatives Analysis was initiated in February 2010. PROJECT SCHEDULES The development of the previous TLCP Update was based upon the corridors and project schedules included in the MAG RTP. Current market conditions, as reflected in the regional PTF and local jurisdiction revenue forecasts, have created substantial funding shortfalls. This causes a redistribution of PTF, local, and federal funds and pushes out construction start dates to be commensurate with available funding. Local jurisdiction funding has been reduced for the Northwest Phase I and Glendale projects and PTF and federal funding have been added to balance these projects. The completion of the HCT/LRT corridors has been delayed as follows: • • • Northwest Phase I: from 2012 to 2023 Northwest Phase II: from 2018 to 2026 Glendale: from 2019 to 2026 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 3 April 2010 • • Northeast Phoenix: from 2030 to 2031 No schedule delays are included for the remaining projects. It should be noted that the Northeast Phoenix project remains in the RTP, which extends to 2031. Also, most of the project’s duration extends beyond the timeframe of the TLCP and the Proposition 400 sales tax, which end in FY2026. An extension of the sales tax is assumed to allow completion of the Northeast Phoenix project. Completion of the Northwest Phase I & II assumes that Phoenix’s Transit 2000 local sales tax will be extended prior to its termination on May 30, 2020. This local sales tax extension is also necessary to provide operating funds for all HCT/LRT projects within the City of Phoenix. Although the construction periods for the Glendale and Northeast projects have been delayed by several years, the TLCP will continue to show early initiation of the Alternatives Analysis for each of these projects. This will allow early definition of the alignment and transit mode to preserve and protect the right-of-way and will facilitate coordination with future public and private development within these corridors. The Alternatives Analysis for Glendale will start in 2012 and for Northeast it will start in 2014. A map showing the HCT/LRT corridors, including the original, existing and proposed completion dates, in calendar years, is shown in Figure 1. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 4 April 2010 Figure 1: Regional Transportation Plan HCT/LRT System Map 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley METRO Rail, Inc. 5 April 2010 Given iven that federal funding is anticipated for each of the HCT/LRT corridors in the RTP, the development of a HCT/LRT project involves adherence to a rigorous federal process. Federal review occurs at various milestones. This federal approval process includes the review of alternative transit technologies (e.g. light rail transit, bus rapid transit, etc) and alignments, the development of draft and final environmental impact statements, preliminary engineering, and final design. These steps are followed by the purchase of right-of-way, utility relocations, construction, and testing of the system. Taken together, the entire development process takes about ten to twelve years to complete, depending upon the length and complexity of the project. The project’s duration and development steps are integral factors considered in the development of the HCT/LRT Life Cycle program. Figure 2 and Table 2 below identify these steps and their duration in the project development process. Figure 2: Federal Transit Administration Project Development Process Table 2: Project Development Process HCT/LRT Project Phases & Duration Project Phase Alternative Analysis / DEIS Preliminary Engineering / FEIS Final Design Right-of-Way Acquisition Utility Relocation Construction / Testing / Start-Up Duration (months) 18-24 18-24 12-18 24-30 24-30 30-48 The revised schedule for development of each of the seven HCT/LRT projects is shown in Figure 3. The early action program for the Phoenix West Corridor has also been added to the schedule. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 6 April 2010 Figure 3: Regional Transportation Plan HCT/LRT System Schedule 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 7 March 2010 5.0 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS The HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program revenues (FY2010-2026) for capital are estimated at $3.438 million in year-of-expenditure dollars. Program funding sources include tax revenues from the 20-year one-half cent sales tax Public Transportation Fund (PTF), FTA 5309/5339 New Starts, Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ), and other federal, with local match contributions from the cities of Glendale and Phoenix. Table 3 below summarizes these funding sources. Table 3: Total Program Capital Funding Sources (YOE$) Source PTF Federal Local Total Amount $1,600 $1,550 $288 $3,438 Percent of Total 46.5% 45.1% 8.4% 100.0% Within each of the HCT/LRT corridor projects, there are also a variety of assumptions that have been used, including: • • • • • Northwest Phase I: The Northwest LRT Extension Phase I, roadway and transit projects, will be funded jointly by Phoenix, PTF, FHWA, CMAQ and FTA Section 5309 Small Starts funds as follows: o Step 1: Finish the right-of-way acquisition process (Phoenix, PTF); o Step 2: Complete utility relocations and street improvements (Phoenix, PTF, and FHWA), and; o Step 3: Complete environmental, design and construction of light rail fixed guideway (PTF, CMAQ and FTA Section 5309 Small Starts). Northwest Phase II: The Northwest LRT Extension Phase II will include federal funding primarily through the FTA Section 5309 Small Starts program. The local match will be provided primarily through Phoenix, with PTF funding the costs of regional facilities. Central Mesa: The Central Mesa LRT Extension will include federal funding primarily through the FTA Section 5309 Small Starts program, which has a cap on federal participation equal to $75 million and total capital costs equal to $250 million. The local match will be provided through the PTF. Tempe South: The Tempe South Corridor will include federal funding primarily through the FTA Section 5309 Small Starts program. The local match will provided through the PTF. Phoenix West: The Phoenix West Corridor will include federal funding through the FTA Section 5309 New Starts program. The local match will be provided through the PTF. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 8 April 2010 • • • • • • • 6.0 Glendale: The Glendale Corridor will be funded with Glendale, Phoenix, PTF and federal funds. The federal funding is through FTA CMAQ and 5309 New Starts Funds. The PTF will fund the local share of the capital project costs for the regional park-and-ride, bridges and light rail vehicles. For all other costs in the 5 mile corridor, Glendale will fund the local share cost for 3.5 miles and Phoenix will fund the local share cost for 1.5 miles. Glendale will fund 100% of the operating costs for the miles within the city of Glendale and Phoenix will fund 100% of the operating costs for the miles in Phoenix. Northeast Phoenix: The Northeast Phoenix Corridor will include federal funding through the FTA Section 5309 New Starts program. The local match will be provided through the PTF. The PTF revenue forecasts are consistent with the ADOT projections and cover the local share of all projects, except Northwest Phase I & II and Glendale. FTA Section 5339 Alternatives Analysis program funds will be requested annually through Congressional appropriations requests. Currently, these funds have been earmarked for the Central Mesa ($437,500), Tempe South ($437,500) and Phoenix West ($2,675,000). FTA Section 5309 funds will be utilized for all projects. The maximum allotment of Section 5309 funds per year systemwide is capped at $90 million in 2010$. CMAQ funds are not precluded from any project and are based on MAG’s forecast. Revenues considered are as identified in the RTP. Revenues from the FTA Section 5309, CMAQ, PTF and local tax sources are shown in year of expenditure (YOE) dollars except for CP/EV where FTA Section 5309 is based upon the FFGA. CAPITAL COST ASSUMPTIONS Capital costs for the program are estimated at $2.961 million in year-of-expenditure dollars. This estimate includes the design, land acquisition and construction expenses for each of the seven corridor projects thru 2026, reimbursements for all private utility relocations, repayment to Phoenix, Tempe and Mesa for regional infrastructure developed in the initial project, system-wide support infrastructure in future years and necessary systems planning and design standards. In addition, costs to finance the projects are estimated at $68 million, bringing the overall program costs to $3.029 million. Table 4 reviews the updated expenditures by project and highlights the added cost estimate for non-prior right utility relocations. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 9 April 2010 Table 4: Project Capital Expenditures (YOE$) Project RTP Base (YOE$) Northwest Phase I Northwest Phase II Central Mesa Tempe South Phoenix West Glendale Northeast Phoenix (thru 2026) CP/EV Regional Reimbursements / Utilities Systemwide Support (constrained) Design Standards Capital Project Development Admin Total $310 $124 $233 $153 $882 $428 $194 $199 $240 $7 $28 $2,797 + Non-Prior Rights Utilities (YOE $) $18 $6 $7 $9 $25 $21 $78 N/A N/A N/A $164 Total (YOE $) $327 $130 $240 $162 $907 $449 $194 $277 $240 $7 $28 $2,961 (Cost of Financing estimated at $68 million, Total Program cost $3,029 million) Within each of the project capital cost estimates, there are also a variety of assumptions that have been used, including: • • • • • • • • • All capital cost estimates were estimated in base year dollars (2010$) and inflated to year-of-expenditure dollars. As mentioned in Section 3.0, the future costs are inflated at a rate of 0.5% in FY2011, 1.5% in FY2012, 2.5% in FY2013 and 3% annually in FY2014-2026. The total capital cost estimate of each project, with the exception of the Tempe South Corridor, is based upon the weighted average costs of the CP/EV and the Northwest Phase I amount of $75.1 million per mile. The Tempe South Corridor assumes a modern streetcar technology with a capital cost estimate of $57.9 million per mile. Alternatives Analysis / Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) or Draft Environmental Assessment (DEA) = $4 - $6 million depending on project length and study area size. Preliminary Engineering / Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) or Final Environmental Assessment (FEA) = PE @ 9% of [R-O-W+Construction] + FEIS or FEA @ 25% of [AA/DEIS or DEA] Final Design = 6% of [R-O-W+Construction] R-O-W = $5.564 per mile (average of CP/EV & NWE estimates) for all corridors except for Phoenix West which uses $500,000 per mile for 7 out of 11 miles. Prior Rights Utilities = $2.256 million per mile (average of CP/EV & NWE estimates) Non-Prior Rights Utilities = $3.6 million per mile (average of CP/EV costs) Construction Costs = approximately 2/3’s of total base costs 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 10 April 2010 - Includes: public utilities including water services, contingency, project reserve, construction management costs, insurance, public art, vehicles, regional maintenance and storage facilities) 7.0 SUMMARY A summary of overall capital program revenues and expenses is shown in Table 6. This table also identifies estimated financing needs to allow the projects to move forward on schedule. A funding balance of $408.4 million is shown at the completion of all HCT/LRT projects in the RTP. A detailed report of all of the capital program revenues and expenses is shown on the Capital Summary table included in the Appendix. Table 5: Total Capital Revenues & Expenses (YOE$) Items Impacting Funding Requirements $ (in millions) Total Program Revenues Total Base Program Cost Funding surplus before added utility expenses and financing Non Prior Right Utility Relocations Financing Needs anticipated: Cost Estimate Principal Finance FY 2009 $55.3 $29.5 FY 2013 $100.0 $38.9 Subtotal $155.3 $68.4 Total Program Cost 8.0 Funding Surplus / Shortfall $3,438.0 -$2,797.2 -$164.1 -$68.4 -$3,029.7 Net TLCP Balance $640.9 -$164.1 -$75.9 $408.4 OPERATIONS Another component of the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program is the operating expense and revenue evaluation. The annual operating costs for HCT/LRT projects are estimated in 2010 dollars at a rate of $1.20 million per mile and are based on the initial 20-mile project’s current variable cost forecast. Costs are escalated for annual inflation at 3.0%. Operating costs are paid by fare revenues and METRO member city contributions. Fares are anticipated to cover 26% of the cost of operations. Table 7 outlines the operating expenditures and Table 8 outlines the operating revenues through 2026. A detailed report of all of the operating program revenues and expenses is shown on the Operating Summary table included in the Appendix. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 11 April 2010 Table 6: Operating Costs by Project (YOE$) Project Operating Costs (Opening Year) to 2026 CP/EV (2008) Northwest Phase I (2023) Northwest Phase II (2026) Central Mesa (2016) Tempe South (2016) Phoenix West (2021) Glendale (2026) Northeast Phoenix (2031) Total Total (YOE $) $750 $15 $50 $25 $92 $932 Table 7: Operating Revenues (YOE$) Project Operating Revenues (Opening Year) to 2026 Phoenix T-2000 Tempe Transit Sales Tax Mesa General Fund Glendale GO Fare Revenues (26%) Total 9.0 Total (YOE $) $438 $181 $69 $244 $932 CONCLUSION Staff from METRO member cities, RPTA, and MAG has been included in the review process and their comments have been incorporated. The capital and operating expenses and costs of the HCT/LRT Life Cycle Program are currently in balance. However, future funding considerations and refinements include: • • • An extension of PTF, or other funding beyond, FY2026 will be needed to fully fund the Northeast Corridor Project. An extension of the Phoenix Transit 2000 sales tax, or other funding source, will be needed to complete construction of Northwest Phase I & II, as well as to fund operations for several HCT/LRT projects in Phoenix. Federal transportation reauthorization, and the level of funding provided for major transit capital projects will affect the HCT/LRT projects in the region. The current federal transportation act expired in September 2009. The legislation is currently authorized through a short term Continuing Resolution. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 12 April 2010 • • • • During the next year, two of METRO’s corridor planning studies (Tempe South and Phoenix West) will be completed and will include updated cost estimates that will be reflected in next year’s TLCP Update. METRO will continue to verify annually the availability of regional and local sales tax revenues for capital improvements and for operations and maintenance costs for each corridor project. Annual updates will be prepared to refine future system-wide support infrastructure needs (e.g., facility modernization, upgrades and expansion). Funding for these needs is currently constrained and additional resources will need to be identified. METRO is working to define regional operations and maintenance facility needs as part of each project and will work to fund this activity through allocations from each individual corridor project. 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 13 April 2010 APPENDIX 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. 14 April 2010 2010 TLCP PROGRAM UPDATE Capital Summary Year of Expenditure (YOE$) CAPITAL SUMMARY YEAR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Northwest - Phase I $ - $ 2,452,801 $ 23,616,000 $ 30,658,000 $ 30,750,000 $ 4,443,908 $ 58,705,994 $ 64,702,195 $ - $ - $ - Northwest - Phase II $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Central Mesa $ - $ 11,169 $ 1,177,310 $ 1,682,442 $ 2,510,824 $ 14,381,259 $ 25,099,654 $ 41,273,275 $ 51,222,399 $ 56,130,583 $ 37,903,529 Tempe South $ - $ 3,466 $ 600,631 $ 1,686,895 $ 1,686,895 $ 5,965,036 $ 18,627,242 $ 29,575,451 $ 29,980,935 $ 28,852,360 $ 29,715,046 44,483,607 Phoenix West $ - $ 27,186 $ 1,259,668 $ 1,600,000 $ 14,852,053 $ 9,117,900 $ 16,059,151 $ 19,490,499 $ 32,951,654 $ 35,930,037 $ Glendale $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 595,568 $ 1,219,009 $ 626,753 $ - $ - Northeast Phoenix $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1,253,838 $ 1,289,321 $ - $ - CP/EV Regional Reimbursements $ 11,700,029 $ 43,623,149 $ 68,709,786 $ 47,320,459 $ 57,958,445 $ 31,532,100 $ 6,218,189 $ 10,000,000 $ - $ - $ - Systemwide Support Infrastructure $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 570,000 $ 10,336,508 $ 10,357,341 $ 10,500,000 $ 28,566,472 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 Design Standards & System Planning Capital Project Development Administration $ $ - $ $ 680,461 - $ $ 1,387,048 - $ $ 792,744 - $ $ 780,000 1,125,000 $ $ 780,135 1,506,750 $ $ 785,734 1,531,461 $ $ 802,243 1,567,297 $ $ 803,722 1,611,651 $ $ 1,659,840 $ $ 1,709,469 $ 11,700,029 $ 46,798,231 $ 96,750,443 $ 83,740,541 $ 110,233,217 $ 78,063,596 $ 137,980,334 $ 180,383,806 $ 147,052,908 $ 123,072,820 $ 114,311,650 TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL REVENUES Section 5309 $ - $ - $ - $ 1,400,000 $ 1,212,500 $ 1,500,000 $ 23,275,454 $ 39,475,207 $ 45,508,403 $ 47,027,000 $ 36,240,000 Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 993,000 $ 16,000,000 $ 16,377,000 $ 16,719,000 $ 16,955,000 $ 25,180,000 $ 20,442,000 Section 5307 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Special Federal $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 12,500,000 $ 9,296,848 $ 29,375,818 $ 35,427,368 $ - $ - $ - Public Transportation Fund (PTF) $ 22,115,589 $ 56,293,147 $ 54,622,329 $ 47,140,423 $ 45,402,000 $ 46,353,280 $ 49,985,440 $ 54,568,880 $ 62,654,760 $ 70,870,360 $ 75,453,800 Phoenix T-2000 $ - $ 2,479,987 $ 24,875,668 $ 28,808,000 $ 20,779,053 $ (1,026,018) $ (1,600,262) $ 134,435 $ - $ - $ - Phoenix Water Services Department (WSD) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 21,700,000 $ 21,000,000 $ - $ - $ - Phoenix HURF $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Glendale On-Board (GO) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - RPTA MAG $ $ - $ $ - $ $ 500,000 824,809 $ $ 500,000 192,744 $ $ 500,000 250,000 $ $ 500,000 250,000 $ $ 500,000 250,000 $ $ 500,000 250,000 $ $ 500,000 250,000 $ $ - $ $ - $ 22,115,589 $ 58,773,134 $ 80,822,806 $ 78,041,167 $ 81,636,553 $ 72,874,110 $ 139,863,450 $ 168,074,890 $ 125,868,163 $ 143,077,360 $ 132,135,800 TOTAL CAPITAL REVENUES 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. Appendix i March 2010 2010 TLCP PROGRAM UPDATE Capital Summary Year of Expenditure (YOE$) CAPITAL SUMMARY YEAR 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Northwest - Phase I $ - $ - $ 265,122 $ 546,045 $ 18,854,895 $ 19,110,517 $ 73,238,825 $ - $ - $ - $ 327,344,302 Northwest - Phase II $ - $ 198,038 $ 407,880 $ 2,208,796 $ 4,008,547 $ 5,593,332 $ 7,419,302 $ 42,600,583 $ 44,664,768 $ 22,977,790 $ 130,079,037 Central Mesa $ 8,578,469 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 239,970,912 Tempe South $ 15,300,277 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 161,994,234 Phoenix West $ 119,132,899 $ 135,742,264 $ 118,737,968 $ 117,076,261 $ 120,565,134 $ 119,881,575 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 906,907,857 Glendale $ 1,369,209 $ 1,201,433 $ 20,236,411 $ 34,779,345 $ 36,858,045 $ 61,450,960 $ 79,973,617 $ 82,284,855 $ 84,662,887 $ 43,554,822 $ 448,812,914 Northeast Phoenix $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1,349,562 $ 1,388,564 $ 1,428,694 $ 31,768,479 $ 55,591,093 $ 100,258,575 $ 194,328,126 CP/EV Regional Reimbursements $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 277,062,157 Systemwide Support Infrastructure $ 19,951,326 $ 7,251,486 $ 29,870,319 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 9,506,171 $ 14,472,713 $ 46,004,878 $ 19,229,608 $ 31,199,964 $ 239,816,785 Design Standards & System Planning Capital Project Development Administration $ $ 1,760,411 $ $ 1,544,700 $ $ 1,590,732 $ $ 1,638,136 $ $ 1,686,952 $ $ 1,735,705 $ $ 1,785,867 $ $ 1,837,479 $ $ 1,890,582 $ $ 1,945,220 $ $ 6,812,087 28,127,252 $ 166,092,592 $ 145,937,921 $ 171,108,433 $ 156,748,584 $ 183,823,136 $ 218,666,824 $ 178,319,017 $ 204,496,273 $ 206,038,937 $ 199,936,371 $ 2,961,255,662 TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL REVENUES Section 5309 $ 47,500,000 $ 75,000,000 $ 85,000,000 $ 92,000,000 $ 94,000,000 $ 102,000,000 $ 92,000,000 $ 73,719,236 $ 90,896,022 $ 83,553,409 $ 1,031,307,231 Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) $ 20,465,000 $ 22,000,000 $ 22,300,000 $ 23,500,000 $ 23,863,340 $ 24,506,987 $ 25,500,000 $ 26,800,000 $ 27,500,000 $ 28,400,000 $ 357,501,326 Section 5307 $ 15,961,061 $ 5,801,188 $ 7,467,580 $ 400,000 $ 400,000 $ 7,604,937 $ 3,618,178 $ 11,501,219 $ 15,383,686 $ 6,696,578 $ 74,834,427 Special Federal $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 86,600,035 Public Transportation Fund (PTF) $ 80,253,440 $ 85,658,440 $ 91,149,920 $ 96,641,400 $ 102,392,320 $ 109,353,960 $ 115,710,240 $ 122,671,880 $ 130,325,360 $ 80,599,360 $ 1,600,216,328 Phoenix T-2000 $ - $ 73,274 $ 150,916 $ 817,255 $ 21,838,059 $ (1,319,948) $ 31,983,969 $ 19,477,874 $ 22,525,979 $ 11,500,000 $ 181,498,241 42,700,000 Phoenix Water Services Department (WSD) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ Phoenix HURF $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ Glendale On-Board (GO) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 6,424,668 $ 20,044,591 $ 18,300,000 $ 10,609,955 $ 63,379,213 RPTA MAG $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ 3,500,000 2,267,553 $ 164,179,501 $ 188,532,903 $ 206,068,416 $ 213,358,655 $ 245,493,719 $ 247,145,935 $ 275,237,055 $ 274,214,801 $ 304,931,047 $ 221,359,301 $ 3,443,804,354 TOTAL CAPITAL REVENUES 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. Appendix i - March 2010 2010 TLCP PROGRAM UPDATE Operating Summary Year of Expenditure (YOE$) OPERATIONS SUMMARY YEAR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 OPERATING EXPENDITURES CP/EV $ - $ - $ - $ 15,762,407 $ 33,733,168 $ 34,745,163 $ 35,787,518 $ 36,861,143 $ 37,966,978 $ 39,105,987 $ Northwest - Phase I $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 40,279,167 - Northwest - Phase II $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Central Mesa $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Tempe South $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Phoenix West $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Glendale Northeast Phoenix $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 15,762,407 $ 33,733,168 $ 34,745,163 $ 35,787,518 $ 36,861,143 $ 37,966,978 $ 39,105,987 $ 40,279,167 19,221,303 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES OPERATING REVENUES Phoenix T-2000 $ - $ - $ - $ 7,558,177 $ 16,097,539 $ 16,580,465 $ 17,077,879 $ 17,590,215 $ 18,117,922 $ 18,661,460 $ Tempe Transit Sales Tax $ - $ - $ - $ 3,158,254 $ 7,262,129 $ 7,479,993 $ 7,704,393 $ 7,935,524 $ 8,173,590 $ 8,418,798 $ 8,671,362 Mesa General Fund $ - $ - $ - $ 550,976 $ 1,388,341 $ 1,429,991 $ 1,472,891 $ 1,517,078 $ 1,562,590 $ 1,609,468 $ 1,657,752 Glendale On-Board (GO) Fare Revenues $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ 4,495,000 $ $ 8,985,159 $ $ 9,254,714 $ $ 9,532,355 $ $ 9,818,326 $ $ 10,112,876 $ $ 10,416,262 $ $ 10,728,750 TOTAL OPERATING REVENUES $ - $ - $ - $ 15,762,407 $ 33,733,168 $ 34,745,163 $ 35,787,518 $ 36,861,143 $ 37,966,978 $ 39,105,987 $ 40,279,167 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. Appendix ii March 2010 2010 TLCP PROGRAM UPDATE Operating Summary Year of Expenditure (YOE$) OPERATIONS SUMMARY YEAR 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES CP/EV $ 41,487,542 $ 42,732,168 $ 44,014,133 $ 45,334,557 $ 46,694,594 $ 48,095,432 $ 49,538,294 $ 51,024,443 $ 52,555,177 $ 54,131,832 $ Northwest - Phase I $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3,374,740 $ 5,958,827 $ 6,137,592 $ 749,849,702 15,471,159 Northwest - Phase II $ 2,658,224 $ 4,693,663 $ 4,834,473 $ 4,979,507 $ 5,128,893 $ 5,282,759 $ 5,441,242 $ 5,604,479 $ 5,772,614 $ 5,945,792 $ 50,341,646 25,101,294 Central Mesa $ 1,363,044 $ 2,336,648 $ 2,406,747 $ 2,478,949 $ 2,553,318 $ 2,629,917 $ 2,708,815 $ 2,790,079 $ 2,873,782 $ 2,959,995 $ Tempe South $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Phoenix West $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Glendale Northeast Phoenix $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ 10,934,744 - $ $ 19,307,633 - $ $ 19,886,862 - $ $ 20,483,468 - $ $ 21,097,972 - $ $ 91,710,680 - $ 45,508,810 $ 49,762,479 $ 51,255,353 $ 52,793,014 $ 54,376,804 $ 66,942,852 $ 76,995,985 $ 82,680,604 $ 87,643,867 $ 90,273,183 $ 932,474,482 Phoenix T-2000 $ 19,797,943 $ 20,391,881 $ 21,003,637 $ 21,633,746 $ 22,282,759 $ 31,152,299 $ 38,120,504 $ 41,795,174 $ 44,911,163 $ 46,258,498 $ 438,252,563 Tempe Transit Sales Tax $ 10,021,938 $ 11,068,766 $ 11,400,829 $ 11,742,854 $ 12,095,139 $ 12,457,993 $ 12,831,733 $ 13,216,685 $ 13,613,186 $ 14,021,581 $ 181,274,747 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES OPERATING REVENUES Mesa General Fund $ 3,701,152 $ 5,278,956 $ 5,437,325 $ 5,600,445 $ 5,768,458 $ 5,941,512 $ 6,119,757 $ 6,303,350 $ 6,492,450 $ 6,687,224 $ 68,519,716 Glendale On-Board (GO) Fare Revenues $ $ 11,987,777 $ $ 13,022,876 $ $ 13,413,562 $ $ 13,815,969 $ $ 14,230,448 $ $ 17,391,048 $ $ 19,923,991 $ $ 21,365,396 $ $ 22,627,069 $ $ 23,305,881 $ $ 244,427,456 TOTAL OPERATING REVENUES $ 45,508,810 $ 49,762,479 $ 51,255,353 $ 52,793,014 $ 54,376,804 $ 66,942,852 $ 76,995,985 $ 82,680,604 $ 87,643,867 $ 90,273,183 $ 932,474,482 2010 Transit Life Cycle Report Valley Metro Rail, Inc. Appendix ii March 2010