ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2017-2026 Financial Management Services September 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. HURF Official Revenue Forecast 2. HURF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. HURF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panel Data Values 5. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 6. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7-10 11-15 16-20 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2017-2026, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent a source of revenues available to the state for highway related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated highway user revenues using a comprehensive regressionbased econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency. In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product Growth independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. In September 2008, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the Arizona Real Gas Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona gasoline consumption. In September 2009, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added September 2016 1 the West Coast No. 2 Real Diesel Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona use fuel (diesel) consumption. In September 2011, the income, gross domestic product, gas price and diesel price variables were converted to nominal dollars at the request of the panel members from the August 2010 RAP panel meeting. The September 2011 RAP panel recommended the Arizona nominal Gross Domestic Product independent variable be eliminated from the model. The current model includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Arizona nominal personal income Arizona population Arizona non-farm employment Arizona fleet fuel efficiency (Not part of RAP Process) Arizona nominal gas price West Coast No. 2 nominal diesel price Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2016, a panel of eleven economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $17,161.1 million for the period FY 2017-2026 with a compound growth rate of 3.7 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2017-2026 amounts to $16,680.3 million with a compound growth rate of 3.5 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for all revenue categories. The FY 2017 forecast of $1,415.6 million was developed in July 2016 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates and recent legislative changes. FY 2017 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total Ave. CGR September 2016 Mean Forecast $1,433.8 1,505.5 1,570.1 1,630.7 1,688.4 1,746.1 1,804.6 1,864.6 1,926.6 1,990.7 $17,161.1 3.7% Official Forecast $1,415.6 1,476.4 1,532.8 1,587.6 1,640.2 1,693.0 1,747.8 1,802.3 1,861.4 1,923.2 $16,680.3 3.5% Confidence Level 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 2 For comparison purposes, the September 2015 Official Forecast and the September 2016 Official Forecast are shown below: FY 2017-2026 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total Ave. CGR Sep. 15 Official Forecast $1,378.5 1,426.6 1,474.7 1,526.2 1,580.9 1,635.6 1,691.6 1,750.2 1,810.0 1,870.6 $16,144.9 3.4% Sep. 16 Official Forecast $1,415.6 1,476.4 1,532.8 1,587.6 1,640.2 1,693.0 1,747.8 1,802.3 1,861.4 1,923.2 $16,680.3 3.5% Difference $37.1 49.8 58.1 61.4 59.3 57.4 56.2 52.1 51.4 52.6 $535.4 Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2017-2026 totals $16,680.3 million, an increase of $535.4 million from the September 2015 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members continue to see only modest growth for the Arizona economy going forward. The panel was slightly more positive in the near term for growth in Arizona personal income and employment growth and lower fuel prices when compared to last year’s estimates. The panel remains more pessimistic for the growth in Arizona population over the forecast period. The main reason for the increase in the September 2016 revenue forecast over the September 2015 revenue forecast is stronger than expected FY 2016 revenues which set a higher revenue base for the FY 2017 forecast and beyond. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2017-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2017-2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. Data displayed for other than the requested years has been extrapolated. September 2016 3 57.9 $1,356.8 Total 173.7 Registration Other 396.0 Vehicle License Tax 193.3 Use Fuel Tax 41.1 $494.8 Gasoline Tax Motor Carrier Fee 2016 Actual Fiscal Year Percentile $1,415.6 58.5 177.9 421.8 41.9 201.0 $514.5 2017 N/A $1,476.4 61.6 183.6 449.4 44.6 213.5 $523.7 2018 50% $1,532.8 63.6 188.7 478.5 46.2 223.0 $532.8 2019 50% $1,587.6 65.5 193.8 508.8 47.7 231.1 $540.7 2020 50% $1,640.2 67.4 198.6 538.7 49.2 238.7 $547.6 2021 50% $1,693.0 69.2 203.6 569.3 50.8 245.2 $554.9 2022 50% $1,747.8 71.1 208.5 601.7 52.3 251.9 $562.3 2023 50% HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) $1,802.3 73.0 213.4 633.4 53.9 258.6 $570.0 2024 50% $1,861.4 74.9 218.6 668.7 55.6 264.8 $578.8 2025 50% $1,923.2 76.8 223.9 706.1 57.2 271.9 $587.3 2026 50% 1,505.5 1,570.1 1,630.7 1,688.5 1,746.1 1,804.6 1,864.6 1,926.6 1,990.8 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2,609.7 2,517.9 2,427.9 2,341.4 2,253.6 2,162.6 2,068.8 1,964.1 1,839.8 $1,666.5 10% $17,161.1 $21,852.3 $1,433.8 2017 Total Mean Fiscal Year 2,175.0 2,102.4 2,033.8 1,965.9 1,900.7 1,834.6 1,767.5 1,695.6 1,614.6 $1,514.1 30% 2,040.1 1,974.6 1,911.5 1,850.5 1,790.6 1,731.7 1,673.4 1,610.4 1,542.2 $1,463.7 40% $19,895.0 $18,604.2 $17,588.6 2,346.8 2,265.8 2,189.6 2,112.9 2,040.1 1,965.5 1,888.1 1,804.1 1,705.6 $1,576.3 20% 1,816.0 1,760.1 1,707.1 1,655.5 1,605.9 1,557.6 1,510.6 1,463.4 1,416.1 $1,374.3 60% 1,711.4 1,660.6 1,611.3 1,563.8 1,519.6 1,474.4 1,433.7 1,393.8 1,356.1 $1,330.5 70% $16,682.2 $15,866.5 $15,055.3 1,923.2 1,861.4 1,802.3 1,747.8 1,693.0 1,640.2 1,587.6 1,532.8 1,476.4 $1,417.5 50% HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) 1,458.0 1,417.5 1,379.4 1,342.1 1,307.1 1,274.5 1,246.8 1,222.5 1,208.0 $1,221.8 90% $14,164.5 $13,077.8 1,596.9 1,551.0 1,506.1 1,464.0 1,423.4 1,385.2 1,349.9 1,316.3 1,289.3 $1,282.2 80% HURF $1,415.6 1,476.4 1,532.8 1,587.6 1,640.2 1,693.0 1,747.8 1,802.3 1,861.4 1,923.2 $16,680.3 DPS/ ESP /1 $127.7 41.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 $256.7 Net HURF $1,287.9 1,435.4 1,521.8 1,576.6 1,629.2 1,682.0 1,736.8 1,791.3 1,850.4 1,912.2 $16,423.6 DPS Parity Comp. Fund /2 ($3.2) (3.4) (3.6) (3.9) (4.1) (4.3) (4.6) (4.8) (5.1) (5.4) ($42.5) ADOT 50.5% /1,3 $644.4 718.2 757.1 784.0 809.8 835.8 862.7 889.5 918.6 949.0 $8,169.0 Cities/Towns 27.5% /1 $368.6 409.2 418.5 433.6 448.0 462.6 477.6 492.6 508.9 525.9 $4,545.4 Cities +300K 3% /1 $40.2 44.6 45.7 47.3 48.9 50.5 52.1 53.7 55.5 57.4 $495.9 Counties 19% /1 $254.7 282.7 289.1 299.6 309.5 319.6 330.0 340.3 351.6 363.3 $3,140.4 NOTES: FY 2017 HURF estimate based on July 2016 Forecast. FY 2018-2026 HURF estimate based on September 2016 Official Forecast. /1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year. The DPS transfer in FY 2017 is $96.006 million per JLBC Fiscal Year 2017 Appropriations Report and $10 million each year thereafter, which is subject to change. In addition, Laws 2014, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 9 (SB 1487) appropriated $30 million in FY 2015 and FY 2016 and $60 million in FY 2017 to cities, towns and counties. A portion of these monies are distributed to the state highway fund for projects in Maricopa and Pima counties (Counties over 800,000). The distribution of SB 1487 appropriations are included in the columns ADOT 50.5%, Cities/Towns 27.5%, Cities over 300,000 3% and Counties 19%. Per Laws 2015, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 10 (SB 1471) the $60 million appropriation for FY 2017 in Laws 2014, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 9, (SB 1487) is reduced to $30 million. Per Laws 2016, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 125, (HB 2708) adds an additional year for the $30.0 million distribution to cities, towns and counties to include FY 2018. FY 2017 also includes a $649,700 appropriation to MVD for the registration compliance program/3rd Party programs. /2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. /3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund transfer and includes transfers per Laws 2011. 1st Regular Session, Chapter 28 (SB 1616) which transfers the state highway fund share of HURF VLT difference between the two-year registration and the five-year registration to the state general fund. Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 12, (HB 2012) an amount equal to 90 percent of the fees collected under 28-4802 (A) and 60 percent of the fees Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) PANELIST DATA VALUES AZ Nominal Income Growth Arizona Population Growth Arizona Non-Farm Employ. Growth AZ Nominal Gas Price Growth West Coast Nominal Diesel Price Growth 5.00% 4.03% 5.97% 1.66% 1.34% 1.97% 2.81% 1.93% 3.15% -0.25% -8.55% 8.55% -0.46% -8.15% 7.68% 5.18% 4.00% 6.34% 1.69% 1.33% 2.05% 2.65% 1.90% 3.18% 5.60% -3.07% 15.14% 5.02% -2.71% 14.71% 5.25% 3.88% 6.63% 1.71% 1.30% 2.09% 2.58% 1.79% 3.33% 6.14% -2.26% 15.73% 5.42% -2.36% 15.29% 5.13% 3.73% 6.64% 1.68% 1.24% 2.11% 2.49% 1.39% 3.42% 6.40% -3.10% 17.54% 6.80% -2.33% 16.88% 4.93% 3.49% 6.46% 1.64% 1.16% 2.16% 2.32% 1.24% 3.21% 6.15% -3.96% 17.33% 6.42% -2.80% 16.58% 4.69% 2.84% 6.45% 1.54% 0.56% 2.21% 2.07% 0.69% 3.53% 2.76% -9.56% 15.38% 2.43% -9.20% 14.75% 4.52% 2.29% 6.54% 1.47% 0.49% 2.23% 1.94% 0.36% 3.44% 2.06% -11.74% 16.44% 2.10% -11.25% 15.20% 4.41% 1.78% 6.61% 1.39% 0.34% 2.22% 1.76% -0.04% 3.48% 2.05% -13.50% 17.94% 1.87% -13.00% 16.63% FY 2017 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2018 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2019 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2020 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2021 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2026 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2031 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% FY 2036 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 7 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 10.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Population Growth 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2016 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Arizona Non-Farm Employment Growth 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fiscal Year Median September 2016 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Diesel Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2016 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 2017 2018 Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 5.4% 4.5% 6.1% 5.5% 4.4% 6.7% 5.6% 4.2% 6.7% 5.4% 4.3% 7.1% 5.2% 4.0% 7.1% 4.8% 3.7% 6.2% 4.6% 3.5% 6.7% 4.6% 2.0% 7.2% 5.5% 5.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.0% 5.9% 5.5% 4.8% 5.9% 5.4% 4.5% 5.5% 5.0% 4.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.7% 4.9% 6.6% 6.0% 5.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.0% 7.2% 5.8% 4.7% 7.0% 5.7% 4.5% 6.8% 5.0% 3.6% 6.4% 4.9% 2.8% 7.1% 4.8% 2.0% 7.7% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.2% 3.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 6.1% 4.5% 3.0% 6.5% 4.5% 3.0% 6.5% 4.5% 2.5% 6.5% 4.5% 1.5% 6.2% 4.5% 0.5% 6.0% 5.6% 4.6% 6.1% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.9% 4.0% 6.9% 5.5% 4.0% 6.9% 5.5% 3.8% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.2% 4.8% 1.5% 7.4% 4.4% 1.2% 7.8% 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.3% 4.6% 6.0% 5.5% 4.8% 6.2% 5.5% 4.5% 6.5% 5.4% 4.3% 6.5% 5.2% 4.1% 6.2% 4.8% 3.4% 6.0% 4.6% 2.5% 6.0% 4.4% 1.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.6% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3.7% 2.7% 1.2% 3.7% 2.5% 1.0% 3.5% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 5.0% 4.0% 7.2% 5.2% 4.2% 8.0% 5.3% 4.4% 7.6% 5.3% 4.1% 7.3% 5.3% 4.1% 7.3% 5.3% 1.3% 8.3% 4.8% 1.3% 8.3% 4.4% 1.3% 8.3% 5.3% 4.6% 6.0% 5.4% 4.8% 6.0% 5.4% 4.5% 6.5% 5.2% 4.3% 6.3% 4.8% 4.1% 6.2% 4.6% 3.4% 6.3% 4.2% 2.5% 6.4% 4.6% 1.6% 6.5% 5.1% 3.1% 7.1% 5.8% 2.5% 9.1% 6.1% 2.5% 9.8% 6.3% 2.5% 10.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 10.2% 10.3% 10.1% 6.0% 2.2% 9.9% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 11 Arizona Population Growth 2017 Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 12 Arizona Non-Farm Employment Growth 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 3.0% 2.3% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 3.8% 4.4% 2.8% 1.5% 4.3% 2.6% 1.3% 4.5% 2.8% 0.5% 4.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% -0.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.2% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.1% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% -0.2% -0.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 2.8% 2.4% 3.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 3.6% 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.0% 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 3.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 4.2% 2.7% 1.4% 4.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8% -0.2% -2.0% 4.3% 4.4% 5.1% 3.0% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.3% 3.2% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.6% 1.5% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.5% -0.2% 3.9% 4.0% 1.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 0.9% 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 4.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0% 4.1% 2.6% 1.0% 4.1% 2.4% 0.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 3.8% 2.0% 0.6% 3.7% 3.0% 2.4% 3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0% 3.5% 3.4% 2.6% 1.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5% 2.5% 1.0% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% -2.0% -2.3% -2.5% 0.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 0.3% -0.2% 3.9% 4.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 13 Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 12.0% 4.4% 19.6% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 10.9% 1.6% 20.3% 9.8% 0.5% 19.2% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% -8.7% -12.1% -14.5% 15.1% 16.5% 18.9% 12.0% 4.4% 19.6% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 10.9% 1.6% 20.3% 9.8% 0.5% 19.2% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% -8.7% -12.1% -14.5% 15.1% 16.5% 18.9% 6.9% -0.6% 14.5% 7.7% 0.1% 15.2% 8.0% -1.4% 17.3% 9.1% -0.3% 18.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% -9.8% -12.4% -14.8% 14.1% 16.2% 18.6% 5.0% -5.0% 19.6% 8.0% 5.0% 18.8% 5.0% 1.6% 20.3% 5.0% 0.5% 19.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% -8.7% -12.1% -14.5% 15.1% 16.5% 18.9% 6.0% 0.0% 17.0% 6.0% -5.0% 20.0% 7.0% -5.0% 22.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% -6.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 23.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% -5.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% -8.0% -5.0% -15.0% -10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 0.0% -6.5% 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -6.5% -11.5% -14.0% -16.0% 11.7% 15.5% 17.0% 19.4% Panelist 1 Median 3.0% Lower 10% -2.0% Upper 10% 10.0% Panelist 2 Median -2.8% Lower 10% -10.4% Upper 10% 4.7% Panelist 3 Median 12.6% Lower 10% 5.1% Upper 10% 20.2% Panelist 4 Median -2.8% Lower 10% -10.4% Upper 10% 4.7% Panelist 5 Median 1.5% Lower 10% -9.0% Upper 10% 5.0% Panelist 6 Median 0.0% Lower 10% -2.0% Upper 10% 2.0% Panelist 7 Median -3.0% Lower 10% -10.5% Upper 10% 10.0% Panelist 8 Median -10.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Upper 10% 0.0% Panelist 9 Median 0.0% Lower 10% -7.0% Upper 10% 7.0% Panelist 10 Median -2.8% Lower 10% -10.4% Upper 10% 4.7% Panelist 11 Median 1.6% Lower 10% -22.4% Upper 10% 25.6% 0.0% -6.0% 8.0% 12.0% 4.4% 19.6% -0.5% -6.5% 11.7% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 10.9% 1.6% 20.3% 9.8% 0.5% 19.2% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% -8.7% -12.1% -14.5% 15.1% 16.5% 18.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% -22.5% -22.6% -22.6% 25.7% 25.7% 25.8% 1.6% -22.7% 25.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% -23.1% -23.4% -23.7% 26.2% 26.6% 26.9% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 14 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Gas Price Growth 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 3.0% -2.0% 10.0% 12.0% 4.5% 19.5% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 10.9% 2.4% 19.5% 9.8% 1.2% 18.4% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% -8.5% -11.8% -14.2% 14.9% 16.2% 18.5% -2.8% -10.4% 4.7% 12.0% 4.5% 19.5% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 10.9% 2.4% 19.5% 9.8% 1.2% 18.4% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% -8.5% -11.8% -14.2% 14.9% 16.2% 18.5% 12.6% 5.1% 20.2% 6.9% -0.6% 14.5% 7.7% 0.1% 15.2% 8.0% -1.4% 17.3% 9.1% -0.3% 18.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% -9.8% -12.4% -14.8% 14.1% 16.2% 18.6% -2.8% -10.4% 4.7% 3.0% -5.0% 19.6% 5.0% -5.0% 18.8% 5.0% 1.6% 20.3% 5.0% 0.5% 19.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% -8.7% -12.1% -14.5% 15.1% 16.5% 18.9% 1.5% -9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 17.0% 6.0% -5.0% 20.0% 7.0% -5.0% 22.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% -6.0% -10.0% -14.0% -19.0% 23.0% 20.0% 21.0% 23.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 10.0% -5.0% -10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 10.0% 2.5% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% -10.0% -12.0% -5.0% -15.0% -15.0% -10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% -8.0% 10.0% 2.0% -8.0% 10.0% 0.0% -6.5% 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -6.5% -11.5% -14.0% -16.0% 11.7% 15.5% 17.0% 19.4% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 0.0% -7.0% 7.0% -2.8% -10.4% 4.7% 0.0% -6.0% 8.0% 12.0% 4.5% 19.5% -5.0% -6.5% 11.7% 11.3% 3.7% 18.8% 10.9% 2.4% 19.5% 9.8% 1.2% 18.4% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% -2.0% -8.0% 10.0% 3.2% -8.5% 14.9% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 2.0% -8.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% -8.0% 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% -11.8% -14.2% 16.2% 18.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -18.5% -18.7% -18.8% -18.9% -19.8% -19.8% -19.9% -20.2% 21.2% 21.1% 21.0% 20.9% 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 19.5% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. September 2016 15 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 15.1% 14.0% 10.0% 9.5% 11.9% 15.3% 17.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.4% 14.7% 9.8% 7.9% 11.7% 12.1% 10.3% 8.8% 7.9% 7.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.1% 4.9% 5.9% 7.2% 8.7% 9.3% 8.6% 8.5% 9.2% 8.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7.8% 6.9% 4.2% 4.5% 7.2% 10.0% 10.9% 8.1% 3.8% -1.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * 2017 2018 2019 -1.7% 3.4% 4.9% 2.7% 2.9% 4.6% 4.9% BEA for FY 1973-2015, Western Blue Chip, June 2016 for FY 2016* and FY 2017, and ADOT staff for FY 2018-36. Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 22.0% 22% 22.0% 0.22 20.0% 20% 20.0% 0.2 18.0% 18% 18.0% 0.18 16.0% 16% 16.0% 0.16 14.0% 14% 14.0% 0.14 12.0% 0.12 12.0% 12% 10.0% 0.1 10.0% 10% 8.0% 0.08 8.0% 8% 6.0% 0.06 6.0% 6% 4.0% 0.04 4.0% 4% 2.0% 0.02 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0% -2.0% -0.02 -2.0% -2% -4.0% -0.04 -4.0% -4% -6.0% -0.06 -6.0% -6% 74 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 9494 95 9596 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 0504 05 0605 06 0706 07 0807 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 1208 12 1309 13 1410 14 15 14 15 16 73 74 75 7677 77 78 79 80 8283 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 92 93 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 09 10 11 12 13 73 7374 7475 7576 76 77 7878 7979 80 80 81 81 82 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 0608 06 07 07 08 09 10 11 11 12 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2016 Historical Min. Max. 2.7% 4.9% -1.7% 8.1% -1.7% 17.8% Mean 4.0% 3.2% 8.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.1% 2.8% 4.9% 2.9% -1.3% 5.3% 4.2% 3.5% 14.5% 16 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * 2017 2018 2019 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% Census Bureau FY 1970-2000. FY 2001-2036 from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. * FY 2016 Projected. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% 0.07 7.0% 7% Percent Change 6.0% 0.06 6.0% 6% 5.0% 0.05 5.0% 5% 4.0% 4% 4.0% 0.04 3.0% 3% 3.0% 0.03 2.0% 2% 2.0% 0.02 1.0% 1% 1.0% 0.01 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0 7069 7271 74 73 76 75 78 77 80 79 82 81 84 83 86 85 88 87 90 89 92 91 94 93 96 95 98 97 00 99 02 01 04 03 06 05 08 07 10 09 11 12 70 71 72 72 73 74 74 74 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 78 78 7879 79 80 80 8081 81 82 82 8283 83 84 84848585868686 8787888888 8989909090 9191929293 9293949495 9495969697 9697989899 98990000010001 02 02 0302 03 04 04 0504 05 06 06 0706 07 08 08 09 08 09 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 15 16 14 15 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2016 Historical Min. Max. 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 5.9% Mean 1.3% 1.2% 3.0% Std. Dev. 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 80% Range Lower Upper 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.7% 1.3% 4.5% 17 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.0% 9.6% 10.9% 8.6% -0.5% 1.4% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.7% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.6% 4.6% 5.2% 3.2% -0.3% -4.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * 2017 2018 2019 -4.7% -0.4% 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.8% Bureau of Labor Statistics for FY 1971-2015, UA Economic and Business Research Center, June 2016 Quarterly Forecast for 2016*-2019 and ADOT staff estimates for FY 2020-2036. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 14.0% 14% 0.14 12.0% 12% 0.12 Percent Change 10.0% 10% 0.1 8.0% 0.08 8% 6.0% 0.06 6% 4.0% 0.04 4% 2.0% 0.02 2% 0.0% 0% 0 -2.0% -0.02 -2% -4.0% -0.04 -4% -6.0% -0.06 -6% -8.0% -0.08 -8% 71 72 72 73 73 7374 74 7475 75 75 7576 76 76 7677 77 77 77 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80 81 81 8181 82 82 8283 82 83 83 84 83 84 84 85 84 85 85 86 86 85 86 87 87 86 87 88 88 87 88 89 89 88 89 90 90 89 90 91 91 90 91 929291 92 939394 93 929495 94 93 95 96 95 94 96 97 96 95 97 98 97 96 98 99 98 97 99 00 99 98 00 01 00 01 99 02 01 02 00 03 02 03 01 0403 04 05 0204 05 06 03 05 06 07 04 06 07 08 05 07 08 09 06 08 09 1007 09 10 1108 10 11 1209 11 12 1310 12 13 14 11 13 14 15 16 12 14 15 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2016 Historical Min. Max. 1.6% 2.8% -4.7% 3.2% -4.7% 10.9% Mean 2.2% 0.4% 3.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% -4.7% 2.8% 3.5% -0.2% 9.0% 18 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.3% -9.2% -25.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 13.8% -16.0% 14.2% -3.3% -0.5% 7.2% 9.0% -10.3% -16.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 37.2% 20.2% -21.9% 25.4% 21.6% 17.4% 32.1% 0.5% 20.2% -19.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.7% 20.1% 16.1% -0.5% -3.9% -20.9% -23.9% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1985-2011, AAA Arizona for FY 2012-2016 and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2016, Trend Forecast report for FY 2017-36. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 0.5 40.0% 40% 0.4 Percent Change 30.0% 30% 0.3 20.0% 20% 0.2 10.0% 10% 0.1 0.0% 0% 0 -10.0% -10% -0.1 -20.0% -20% -0.2 -30.0% -30% -0.3 -40.0% -40% -0.4 -50.0% -50% -0.5 91 92 92 92 93 93 93 93 94 94 949495 95 9595 96 96 9696 97 97 9798 97 98989999 9899 0000 99 00 0101 00 01 020201 02 030304 03 020405 04 03 0506 05 04 0607 0607 05080708 06 0908 09 10 0709 10 11 0810 11 1209 11 12 13 10 12 13 14 11 13 14 15 16 12 14 15 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2016 Historical Min. Max. -23.9% 16.1% -23.9% 20.2% -23.9% 37.2% Mean -6.6% -0.7% 4.7% Std. Dev. 16.3% 16.6% 17.7% 80% Range Lower Upper -22.7% 9.5% -21.2% 20.2% -20.1% 23.5% 19 HISTORICAL DATA WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.7% 6.4% 43.3% 31.4% 5.8% 10.0% 9.1% 22.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48.1% 30.2% 4.3% -8.0% -6.8% 0.1% -4.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 14.2% 4.6% -3.2% 3.1% 2.7% -3.4% 4.9% 5.8% -11.8% -5.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25.0% 16.4% -16.4% 12.4% 13.6% 27.8% 25.5% 2.7% 25.8% -17.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -3.4% 23.5% 14.2% 0.0% -2.0% -14.1% -25.3% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1972-2016 and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2016, Trend Forecast report for FY 2017-36. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 0.5 40.0% 40% 0.4 Percent Change 30.0% 30% 0.3 20.0% 20% 0.2 10.0% 10% 0.1 0.0% 0% 0 -10.0% -10% -0.1 -20.0% -20% -0.2 -30.0% -30% -0.3 -40.0% -40% -0.4 -50.0% -50% -0.5 72 73 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 79 80 8080 81 8181 82 8282 83 8383 84 8485 8586 8687 8788 88 90 90 91 91 9292 9393 949493 959596 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 0098 00 0199 01 0200 02 0303 0404 0505 0606 07 08 09 10 10 1108 11 1209 12 1310 13 1411 14 15 12 15 16 72737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708091011121314 72 7475 7576 7677 7778 78 79 84 85 86 878989 88 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 01 02 03 0407 0508 0609 07 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2016 Historical Min. Max. -25.3% 14.2% -25.3% 25.8% -25.3% 48.1% Mean -5.4% 0.4% 7.1% Std. Dev. 15.0% 16.9% 15.6% 80% Range Lower Upper -20.8% 8.5% -18.0% 23.7% -10.3% 27.0% 20