Arizona Department of Transportation

MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX

Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2003-2006

Financial Management Services
November 2002

MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
as of November 2002

Introduction
This document contains the Arizona Department of Transportation’s (the
Department) forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation
Excise Tax for the period FY 2003-2006.
Background
Since 1986, the Department has used a comprehensive regression-based
econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa
County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF),
are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program.
The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In
order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department
introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on
probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an
expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with
specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate.
Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis
Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State
University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not
included in the 1986 model.
In September 2000, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The
independent variables contained in the updated model include:
•
•
•
•
•

Maricopa County real income growth per capita
Maricopa County population growth
Maricopa County construction employment growth
Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Prime interest rate.

November 2002

1

Risk Analysis Panel
The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of
economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September
2002, an expert panel of eleven economists, representing public, private, and
academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent
variables and comments on the future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the updated model to
produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The data
are detailed in the tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
The model results from the panelists inputs produced a mean forecast of $1,064.9
million for the period FY 2003-2006 with a compound growth rate of 5.8 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2003-2006 totals $1,064.0 million with
a compound growth rate of 5.8 percent. The FY 2003 forecast of $275.6 million
was developed independently of the econometric model using time series
techniques and historic and projected growth rates from the model. This forecast
assumed little growth through the first six-months and modest growth through the
second six-months.
The FY 2003-2006 forecast utilizes the 50% confidence interval to account for less
uncertainty in the future due to the expiration of the excise tax in three years. The
Mean Forecast and the Department’s Official Forecast are detailed below.

FY 2003 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006

Mean
Forecast
$275.7
$290.8
$308.0
$190.4

Official
Forecast
$275.6
$290.4
$307.5
$190.5

Total

$1,064.9

$1,064.0

5.8%

5.8%

Ave. CGR

November 2002

Confidence
Level
N/A
50%
50%
50%

2

For comparison purposes, the December 2001 Official Forecast and the November
2002 Official Forecast are shown below:

FY 2003 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006

Dec. 01
Official
Forecast
$284.8
$302.7
$323.9
$202.2

Nov. 02
Official
Forecast
$275.6
$290.4
$307.5
$190.5

Difference
($9.2)
($12.3)
($16.4)
($11.7)

Total

$1,113.6

$1,064.0

($49.6)

Avg. CGR

6.8%

5.8%

Summary
For FY 2003-2006, the Department’s Official Forecast totals $1.06 billion which
reflects the remaining three and a half years of the Maricopa County Transportation
Excise Tax. Compared to last year’s forecast, the November 2002 forecast was
reduced by $49.6 million to reflect the continued economic slowdown in Maricopa
County that began approximately 18 months ago. Although the low interest rates
have encouraged the purchase of new motor vehicles and homes, there continues to
be an underlying weakness in the economy due to the job losses and the stock
market uncertainty. On the bright side, the economy is predicted to pickup steam in
FY 2004, however, the robust growth seen in the mid-to-late 1990’s is not expected
to be repeated.
Supplementary Information
The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the
Department’s model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert
panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process.

November 2002

3

November 2002

RARF Official Revenue Forecast
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year
Percentile

2002
Actual

2003
N/A

2004
50%

2005
50%

2006
50%

Retail Sales

$131.4

$135.6

$143.5

$152.8

$95.0

Contracting

41.2

42.1

43.1

44.3

26.9

Utilities

18.4

19.0

20.0

21.0

13.0

Restaurant / Bar

21.7

22.6

23.7

25.2

15.7

Rental - Real Property

24.5

25.5

27.2

28.9

17.9

Rental - Personal Prop.

13.9

14.2

15.1

16.0

9.9

Other

16.3

16.6

17.8

19.3

12.1

$267.6

$275.6

$290.4

$307.5

$190.5

Total

4

November 2002

RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year

Mean

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2003

$275.7

$282.1

$279.8

$278.4

$277.0

$275.6

$274.3

$273.1

$271.2

$269.5

2004

290.8

299.3

295.9

293.9

292.1

290.4

288.9

287.5

285.6

282.4

2005

308.0

317.7

314.7

312.5

309.7

307.5

305.8

303.8

301.4

298.7

2006

190.4

197.7

195.0

193.1

191.8

190.5

189.0

187.2

186.0

183.7

5

Official Forecast Results
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year

Official
Forecast

Mean
Forecast

80% Conf.
Interval

20% Conf.
Interval

2003

$275.6

$275.7

$271.2

$279.8

2004

290.4

290.8

285.6

295.9

2005

307.5

308.0

301.4

314.7

2006

190.5

190.4

186.0

195.0

Total

$1,064.0

$1,064.9

$1,044.2

$1,085.4

$450

Millions of Current Dollars

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year
Official Fcst

November 2002

Mean Fcst

80% Conf. Interval

20% Conf. Interval

6

Maricopa County Real Income Per Capita
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%

Growth Rate

2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year

Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

Maricopa County Population
4.0%

3.5%

Growth Rate

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year

Median

November 2002

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

7

Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%

Growth Rate

4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year

Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

Prime Interest Rate
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%

Growth Rate

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year

Median

November 2002

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

8

Phoenix CPI
4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

Growth Rate

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

Fiscal Year

Median

November 2002

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

9

Mean Panelist Data Values

FY 2003
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2004
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2005
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2006
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

Income
Growth

Population
Growth

Construction
Employment

Prime
Rate

Phoenix
CPI Growth

1.59
-0.05
0.88

2.93
1.96
2.47

-0.45
-4.36
-2.08

6.47
4.33
5.23

2.25
1.28
1.68

1.77
0.11
1.03

3.03
1.87
2.48

1.75
-2.57
-0.06

7.06
4.79
5.83

2.66
1.46
1.97

2.12
0.33
1.31

3.16
1.99
2.59

3.27
-1.16
1.73

7.69
5.08
6.22

3.42
1.59
2.42

2.15
0.39
1.29

3.19
1.93
2.60

4.62
0.08
2.95

8.33
5.18
6.47

3.97
1.69
2.67

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of the Prime Rate
column which are nominal percentage values.

November 2002

10

Per Capita Income Growth Rate
2003

2004

2005

2006

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.00
-0.50
0.30

2.50
-0.60
0.70

2.90
-0.70
1.00

3.50
-0.80
1.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.25
-1.00
0.75

2.25
0.00
1.25

2.50
0.25
2.00

2.25
0.50
1.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.90
-1.50
1.30

2.10
-1.20
1.70

2.40
-1.30
1.50

2.60
-0.90
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.50
0.90
1.30

1.70
1.10
1.50

1.70
1.10
1.50

1.80
1.20
1.60

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.70
0.80
1.30

1.90
0.90
1.50

2.00
0.70
1.50

2.10
0.70
1.40

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-1.00
0.00

1.00
-1.00
0.00

1.50
-0.50
0.50

1.80
0.00
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.30
0.00
0.50

1.80
-0.50
0.30

3.40
1.10
1.50

2.80
0.50
1.30

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-0.20
0.50

1.30
0.20
1.00

1.60
0.40
1.20

1.40
0.50
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.60
1.00
1.30

1.70
1.10
1.40

1.50
0.80
1.10

1.30
0.80
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.20
1.40
1.70

2.00
1.20
1.70

1.80
1.00
1.60

1.60
0.80
1.40

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-0.50
0.75

1.25
0.00
0.25

2.00
0.75
1.00

2.50
1.00
1.50

Panelist 1

Panelist 2

Panelist 3

Panelist 4

Panelist 5

Panelist 6

Panelist 7

Panelist 8

Panelist 9

Panelist 10

Panelist 11

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002

11

Maricopa County Population Growth Rate
2003

2004

2005

2006

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.60
1.90
2.40

3.80
1.90
2.30

4.20
2.00
2.70

4.40
1.90
2.90

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.50
1.80
2.30

2.90
2.00
2.60

3.20
2.40
2.90

3.40
2.40
3.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.60
1.70
2.30

2.80
0.50
2.40

2.90
0.50
2.40

3.00
0.50
2.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.60
2.20
2.50

2.50
2.10
2.40

2.50
2.10
2.40

2.40
2.00
2.30

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.60
2.10
2.40

2.70
1.90
2.30

2.70
1.80
2.30

2.90
1.50
2.20

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.50
2.00
2.70

3.40
2.00
2.70

3.30
2.00
2.60

3.00
1.90
2.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

4.00
2.20
3.10

4.10
2.20
3.00

4.70
2.70
3.50

4.70
2.70
3.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.50
1.80
2.20

2.60
1.90
2.30

2.80
2.10
2.50

3.00
2.20
2.80

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.40
1.70
2.00

2.60
1.90
2.20

2.50
2.00
2.30

2.50
2.00
2.20

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.20
2.40
2.80

3.00
2.20
2.70

3.00
2.20
2.60

2.80
2.00
2.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.75
1.75
2.50

2.90
2.00
2.40

2.95
2.10
2.30

3.00
2.10
2.20

Panelist 1

Panelist 2

Panelist 3

Panelist 4

Panelist 5

Panelist 6

Panelist 7

Panelist 8

Panelist 9

Panelist 10

Panelist 11

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002

12

Maricopa Construction Employment Growth Rate
2003

2004

2005

2006

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-2.50
-1.50

2.00
-2.00
-0.20

4.00
-1.00
1.50

5.00
0.00
3.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-1.00
-5.00
-2.50

0.00
-3.00
-2.00

3.00
-2.00
2.00

7.00
1.00
5.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-2.50
-10.00
-5.00

1.50
-5.50
0.00

3.00
-10.00
2.00

4.00
-5.00
2.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-1.00
-3.00
-1.10

2.00
-2.00
-2.00

3.00
-1.00
0.00

4.00
0.00
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-2.00
-1.50

2.60
1.00
2.00

2.80
1.00
2.00

2.90
0.90
2.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-2.00
-10.00
-5.00

2.00
-10.00
-1.00

2.00
-5.00
0.00

2.00
-5.00
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.00
-7.00
0.00

4.70
-4.30
2.00

6.00
0.00
3.00

9.00
0.00
5.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-1.00
-2.20
-1.80

0.00
-1.50
-1.00

2.00
0.00
1.00

4.50
1.50
3.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-1.50
-3.50
-2.50

1.00
-1.00
0.00

1.30
0.00
0.50

1.50
0.50
1.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

-1.00
-2.00
-1.50

1.00
-1.00
0.00

2.90
1.00
2.00

3.40
1.00
2.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.00
-0.75
-0.50

2.50
1.00
1.50

6.00
4.25
5.00

7.50
6.00
7.00

Panelist 1

Panelist 2

Panelist 3

Panelist 4

Panelist 5

Panelist 6

Panelist 7

Panelist 8

Panelist 9

Panelist 10

Panelist 11

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002

13

Prime Interest Rate
2003

2004

2005

2006

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

7.00
5.00
5.50

7.50
6.00
6.50

8.50
6.00
7.00

9.00
6.00
7.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

6.00
4.00
4.50

7.50
4.50
4.50

8.50
4.00
4.50

8.50
4.00
4.75

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

6.50
4.50
5.50

7.00
5.00
6.00

7.00
5.00
6.00

8.00
6.00
7.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

4.75
3.75
4.25

5.00
3.50
4.50

6.75
4.00
5.25

7.50
3.75
6.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

6.00
3.00
5.00

7.00
3.00
5.50

7.00
3.50
5.50

8.00
4.00
5.70

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

7.70
4.70
6.20

8.50
5.50
7.00

9.50
6.50
8.00

9.00
5.00
6.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

5.80
5.20
5.40

6.00
5.30
5.60

6.30
5.60
6.00

6.60
5.70
6.30

8.00
4.50
5.50

8.00
5.50
7.00

8.00
6.00
7.50

10.00
7.00
8.00

Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2

Panelist 3

Panelist 4

Panelist 5

Panelist 6

Panelist 7

Panelist 8

Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

All data in the above table are nominal percentage values.
November 2002

14

Phoenix CPI Growth Rate
2003

2004

2005

2006

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.50
1.00
1.50

3.50
1.70
2.20

4.70
1.90
3.00

5.30
2.20
3.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.50
2.00

2.00
2.50

4.50
2.50
3.00

5.00
2.50
3.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.10
1.20
1.70

2.70
1.00
2.00

4.00
0.90
2.50

6.00
1.00
2.50

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.00
1.50
1.70

2.30
1.80
2.00

2.60
2.00
2.20

2.60
2.00
2.20

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.90
1.30
1.60

2.20
1.30
1.70

2.60
1.20
1.80

3.00
1.10
2.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.00
1.30
1.70

3.00
1.50
2.00

3.00
1.50
2.00

3.20
1.50
2.20

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.60
0.80
1.50

2.50
0.80
1.40

3.50
0.80
2.50

4.00
0.80
3.00

Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

1.90
1.50
1.70

2.30
1.60
1.90

2.70
1.90
2.30

3.00
2.10
2.60

2.00
1.40
1.70

2.80
1.40
2.00

3.20
1.60
2.50

3.60
2.00
3.00

Panelist 1

Panelist 2

Panelist 3

Panelist 4*

Panelist 5

Panelist 6

Panelist 7

Panelist 8

Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002

15

HISTORICAL DATA
GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

1.5%
3.1%
1.1%
-5.1%
-3.5%
1.5%
4.4%
3.4%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-0.4%
-2.3%
-3.1%
-0.1%
4.3%
3.1%
2.8%
1.5%
1.0%
-0.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.3%
-2.2%
-1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
1.5%
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%

2000 1.9%
2001 1.4%
2002 * 1.2%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

*Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Percent Change

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

-6.0%

Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2002

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
1.20% 2.10% 1.74%
0.00% 2.10% 1.35%
-5.09% 4.43% 0.74%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower Upper
0.42% 1.28% 2.10%
0.78% 0.09% 2.10%
2.26% -2.25% 3.15%

16

HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.7%
4.5%
3.7%
2.7%
2.2%
2.2%
2.5%
3.1%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

4.4%
5.7%
5.9%
6.4%
5.2%
3.0%
2.1%
3.9%
4.4%
4.9%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

4.0%
3.4%
2.9%
3.2%
4.4%
5.3%
4.2%
4.5%
2.9%
2.6%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1.4%
2.4%
2.8%
3.5%
4.2%
4.7%
4.2%
3.3%
3.1%
3.8%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

1.4%
2.5%
2.5%

DES smoothed out the 1991 to 1995 figures. 1996-1999 data from October 2000 approved DES estimates and
2000-2002 from February 1997 approved DES projections.

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
7.0%

Percent Change

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

0.0%
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2002

Historical
Min.
Max.
1.40% 3.80%
1.40% 4.70%
1.36% 6.39%

Std.
Mean Dev.
2.65% 0.89%
3.32% 0.99%
3.63% 1.20%

80%
Lower
1.83%
2.37%
2.21%

Range
Upper
3.52%
4.25%
5.25%

17

HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

8.3%
3.6%
33.3%
-10.5%
59.2%
-1.9%
5.2%
46.9%

18.2%
5.9%
24.9%
21.3%
0.4%
-19.3%
-16.3%
14.7%
38.7%
32.7%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

5.2%
-6.7%
-6.5%
5.4%
23.4%
20.3%
7.9%
-5.8%
-9.8%
-9.1%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-7.2%
-6.5%
-2.4%
9.5%
15.4%
15.8%
9.7%
5.8%
8.7%
9.7%

2000 6.2%
2001 3.1%
2002 * -1.1%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

*Estimate

70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
1962

Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2002

Historical
Min.
Max.
-1.10% 9.66%
-1.10% 15.79%
-19.33% 59.23%

Std.
80%
Mean
Dev.
Lower
5.05% 4.61% 0.03%
8.14% 5.31% 1.45%
8.66% 16.75% -9.10%

Range
Upper
9.29%
15.42%
32.72%

18

HISTORICAL DATA
PRIME INTEREST RATE

HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.57%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.94%
5.80%
5.96%
6.91%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

8.37%
6.62%
5.38%
6.06%
9.79%
9.82%
7.22%
6.59%
7.71%
10.85%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

14.98%
16.62%
17.53%
12.01%
11.29%
11.38%
9.24%
7.73%
8.66%
10.56%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

10.30%
9.46%
7.25%
6.00%
6.23%
8.37%
8.52%
8.32%
8.50%
7.98%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

8.60%
8.74%
5.31%

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1962

Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2002

Historical
Min.
Max.
5.31% 8.74%
5.31% 8.74%
4.50% 17.53%

Std.
80% Range
Mean
Dev.
Lower Upper
7.83% 1.44% 6.38% 8.68%
7.66% 1.28% 5.93% 8.61%
8.29% 3.09% 4.61% 11.37%

19

HISTORICAL DATA
PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972 6.1%
1973 5.6%
1974 7.6%
1975 11.7%
1976 11.1%
1977 7.7%
1978 7.7%
1979 10.7%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

13.7%
13.6%
10.0%
5.5%
3.5%
4.6%
4.2%
2.9%
3.4%
4.3%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

4.9%
4.7%
3.4%
3.1%
3.6%
4.0%
4.6%
4.9%
4.4%
3.9%

2000
2001
2002*
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

3.4%
2.4%
1.8%

* Estimate

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1972

Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2002

Historical
Min.
Max.
1.80% 4.39%
1.80% 4.91%
1.80% 13.70%

Std.
Mean Dev.
3.16% 1.06%
3.60% 0.98%
5.90% 3.31%

80% Range
Lower Upper
2.04% 4.18%
2.34% 4.64%
3.09% 11.10%

20