Arizona Department of Transportation

MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX

Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2005-2026

Financial Management Services
November 2004

MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
as of November 2004
Introduction
In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway
system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20
years and ends on December 31, 2005.
On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which
extends the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025.
The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of
existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional
bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services
such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses.
This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa
County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2005-2026 developed by the
Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association
of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail.
Background
Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a
comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise
Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional
Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County
Freeway Program.
The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In
order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department
introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability
analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of
economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of
occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate.
Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod
Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State
University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not
included in the 1986 model.

November 2004

1

In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations.
The independent variables contained in the updated model include:
•
•
•
•
•

Maricopa County real income growth per capita
Maricopa County population growth
Maricopa County construction employment growth
Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Prime interest rate.

Risk Analysis Panel
The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert
panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In
September 2004, an expert panel of eleven economists representing public, private,
and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s
independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook.
Model Results
The model results from the panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,869.3
million for the period FY 2005-2026 with an average compound growth rate (CGR)
of 7.2 percent.
The Official Forecast totals $14,813.2 million for the period FY 2005-2026 and has
an average compound growth rate of 7.2 percent. The FY 2005 forecast of $306.9
million was developed independently of the econometric model using time series
techniques and historic and projected growth rates from the model. The FY 2005
forecast is 6.3 percent above the FY 2004 collections.
The FY 2005-2026 forecast utilizes the 50% confidence interval growth rate to
account for less uncertainty in the future. The Mean Forecast and the Official
Forecast are shown on the next page.

November 2004

2

Official Forecast Results
(Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Mean
Forecast
$309.5
331.4
355.1
380.6
407.5
436.4
467.3
499.7
535.4
573.5
614.0
657.6
704.8
755.9
809.6
868.3
931.8
1,000.5
1,072.3
1,150.5
1,234.6
773.0

Official
Forecast
$306.9
329.0
352.4
377.3
404.6
433.3
465.0
497.7
532.8
570.7
612.3
655.6
702.8
752.6
807.9
865.2
929.8
998.4
1,070.1
1,145.8
1,232.5
770.5

Total
Ave. CGR

$14,869.3
7.2%

$14,813.2
7.2%

Confidence
Level
N/A
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

Note: Current inflated dollars

November 2004

3

For comparison purposes, the November 2003 and 2004 Official Forecasts are shown
below:
Official Forecast
Official Forecast
November 2003
November 2004
Current $ 2002 $ @ Current $
2002 $ @ 2002 $ @ 2002 $ @
(Inflated)
3%/1
(Inflated) FCST Diff 3.0%/1
2.65%/1 2.85%/1
$305.0
$279.1
$306.9
$1.9
$280.9
$283.7
$282.1
327.4
290.9
329.0
1.6
292.3
296.3
294.0
351.2
302.9
352.4
1.2
303.9
309.2
306.2
377.8
316.4
377.3
(0.5)
316.0
322.5
318.8
406.6
330.6
404.6
(2.0)
329.0
336.9
332.4
437.6
345.4
433.3
(4.3)
342.0
351.5
346.1
471.1
361.1
465.0
(6.1)
356.4
367.4
361.1
505.2
375.9
497.7
(7.5)
370.3
383.1
375.7
542.4
391.8
532.8
(9.6)
384.9
399.6
391.1
583.1
409.0
570.7
(12.4)
400.3
417.0
407.4
626.8
426.8
612.3
(14.5)
416.9
435.8
424.9
671.1
443.7
655.6
(15.5)
433.4
454.6
442.4
719.6
461.9
702.8
(16.8)
451.1
474.8
461.1
773.1
481.7
752.6
(20.5)
469.0
495.3
480.1
830.3
502.3
807.9
(22.4)
488.8
517.9
501.0
890.7
523.2
865.2
(25.5)
508.2
540.3
521.7
955.9
545.1
929.8
(26.1)
530.3
565.7
545.1
1,022.3
566.0
998.4
(23.9)
552.8
591.7
569.1
1,095.6
588.9
1,070.1
(25.5)
575.2
617.8
593.1
1,173.6
612.5
1,145.8
(27.8)
598.0
644.5
617.5
1,260.2
638.5
1,232.5
(27.7)
624.5
675.3
645.8
789.3
388.3
770.5
(18.8)
379.0
411.3
392.5

Fiscal
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
TOTALS
FY 05-26 $15,115.9 $9,582.0
FY 06-25 $14,021.4 $8,914.7

$14,813.2
$13,735.7

($302.7)
($285.7)

$9,403.2
$8,743.4

$9,892.2
$9,197.3

$9,609.2
$8,934.5

Note: 1/ Discounted at constant 2002 dollars at the respective discount rate.
Totals may not add due to individual rounding.

The November 2004 Official Forecast for FY 2005-2026 in current dollars (inflated)
totaled $14,813.2 million compared to the November 2003 Official Forecast of $15,115.9
million, a decrease of $302.7 million. The decrease in the Nove mber 2004 Official
Forecast was due to the RAP panel being somewhat less optimistic with future Maricopa
County real per capita income growth.
However, the RAP panel also forecast a lower Phoenix CPI during the forecast period.
The September 2002 RAP panel estimated the Phoenix CPI would ave rage 3 percent over
the FY 2006-2025 forecast period. This Phoenix CPI figure was then used by the
Maricopa Association of Governments to deflate into 2002 constant dollars the revenue
November 2004

4

forecast used in Proposition 400. In addition, the Department used the 3 percent Phoenix
CPI figure to deflate the November 2003 Official Forecast into 2002 constant dollars, which
resulted in revenue forecast similar to the forecast used in Proposition 400. By applying the
same 3 percent Phoenix CPI with the November 2004 Official Forecast, the total 2002
constant dollar revenues would amount to $8,743.4 million, a decrease of $171.3 million
from the November 2003 Official Forecast of $8,914.7 in 2002 constant dollars.
As noted above, the September 2004 RAP panel estimated a lower Phoenix CPI for the
forecast period. By incorporating the forecast period midpoint Phoenix CPI of 2.65 percent,
the November 2004 Official Forecast in 2002 constant dollars would be $9,197.3 million, an
increase of $282.6 million over the November 2003 Official Forecast for the FY 2006-2025
time period. For comparison purposes, a 2.85 percent Phoenix CPI figure used to deflate the
November 2004 Official Forecast would provide similar revenue results when compared to
the November 2003 Official Forecast using a 3 percent deflator.
Summary
The Official Forecast for FY 2005-2026 totals $14,813.2 million, which reflects the
extension of the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax. The November 2004 Official
Forecast was decreased by $302.7 million from the November 2003 Official Forecast.
Compared to last year, the Risk Analysis Process panel forecasted lower growth in
Maricopa County income, construction employment, prime rate and Phoenix CPI but a
higher population growth for FY 2005–2026 period. In FY 2005, the Department expects
improvement in Maricopa County’s economy with modest job and population growth along
with strength in tourism.
Supplementary Information
The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP’s model, the
values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the
Risk Analysis Process.

November 2004

5

RARF Official Revenue Forecast
With Category Detail by Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)

Rental
Rental
Fiscal
Retail Contracting Utilities Restaurant/
Real
Personal Other
Total
Year
Bar
Property Property
$155.4
$46.6
$20.9
$26.7
$28.9
$12.6
$15.8
$306.9
2005
2006
170.0
48.4
22.2
28.5
29.7
12.7
17.5
329.0
2007
186.4
49.2
23.0
30.6
30.5
13.1
19.6
352.4
2008
199.3
53.6
23.8
32.8
33.4
14.1
20.3
377.3
2009
213.8
58.0
24.8
35.2
36.5
15.3
21.0
404.6
2010
228.7
63.0
25.8
37.6
39.9
16.6
21.7
433.3
245.2
68.5
26.9
40.6
43.4
18.0
22.4
465.0
2011
262.7
73.9
28.0
43.4
47.3
19.2
23.2
497.7
2012
281.3
79.9
29.0
46.5
51.3
20.9
23.9
532.8
2013
301.1
85.8
30.2
49.6
56.6
22.7
24.7
570.7
2014
323.3
92.7
31.5
53.0
61.6
24.7
25.5
612.3
2015
346.5
100.1
32.7
56.6
66.8
26.6
26.3
655.6
2016
371.4
107.6
34.0
60.7
73.1
28.7
27.3
702.8
2017
397.9
114.3
35.5
65.0
80.4
31.2
28.3
752.6
2018
427.7
123.2
37.0
69.9
87.2
33.6
29.3
807.9
2019
458.0
131.4
38.5
74.5
95.4
37.0
30.4
865.2
2020
491.6
142.2
40.2
80.2
104.1
40.1
31.4
929.8
2021
2022
527.8
152.4
41.9
85.9
114.2
43.6
32.6
998.4
2023
564.8
163.5
43.8
92.4
124.4
47.3
33.9
1,070.1
2024
606.5
173.9
45.6
98.7
135.0
51.0
35.1
1,145.8
652.6
186.4
47.8
106.3
146.8
56.1
36.5
1,232.5
2025
407.1
115.7
29.1
66.4
94.2
35.8
22.1
770.5
2026
$7,819.1
$2,230.3
$712.2
$1,281.1
$1,580.7
$620.9
$568.8
$14,813.2
Total: 05-26
Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding.

November 2004

6

November 2004

RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year

Mean

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

$309.5
331.4
355.1
380.6
407.5
436.4
467.3
499.7
535.4
573.5
614.0
657.4
704.8
755.9
809.6
868.3
931.8
1,000.5
1,072.3
1,150.5
1,234.6
773.0

$319.1
343.2
371.0
400.5
429.6
463.4
498.1
534.6
574.7
619.0
665.7
718.6
769.7
829.1
894.7
959.0
1,032.7
1,110.9
1,198.6
1,286.9
1,389.5
869.5

$316.0
339.5
365.3
393.2
422.8
453.2
487.6
523.0
562.0
603.2
647.1
695.5
747.8
807.8
862.7
926.5
998.7
1,072.4
1,153.9
1,237.6
1,323.1
830.1

$314.0
336.2
361.9
388.8
417.2
447.9
481.5
513.7
551.6
590.0
633.8
678.9
729.9
786.9
843.2
905.2
975.7
1,045.1
1,119.2
1,204.9
1,289.4
806.0

$311.5
333.9
358.4
384.3
412.1
442.5
475.9
507.9
543.6
582.2
622.8
666.7
716.7
768.0
825.0
887.7
951.4
1,019.4
1,095.2
1,173.3
1,258.2
789.5

$309.5
331.8
355.3
380.5
408.0
436.9
468.8
501.8
537.3
575.5
617.4
661.1
708.7
758.9
814.6
872.4
937.6
1,006.7
1,079.0
1,155.3
1,242.7
776.9

$307.8
329.3
352.4
376.7
403.2
430.5
460.9
491.7
526.6
564.2
605.1
646.7
690.9
741.2
791.3
852.4
910.3
979.0
1,049.0
1,128.3
1,208.5
754.1

$306.4
326.7
349.1
373.5
398.5
424.7
454.5
483.7
518.2
556.0
593.8
633.5
676.6
723.5
774.5
827.5
890.1
955.9
1,022.6
1,096.2
1,174.8
736.6

$303.9
324.4
344.9
368.3
393.2
418.7
446.2
474.7
508.4
543.6
580.7
618.9
659.9
706.5
755.1
810.0
866.6
924.7
990.7
1,058.2
1,135.6
711.2

$300.5
319.1
338.4
361.3
384.8
410.9
435.4
464.9
495.1
524.0
560.9
598.1
638.0
680.8
724.1
772.1
826.3
887.0
949.4
1,015.2
1,093.7
680.8

7

RARF Official Revenue Forecast
Revenue Distribution
(Current Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2005
2006 /2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 /3
TOTALS

Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1
Freeways
Arterial Streets
(56.2%)
(10.5 %)
$306.9
268.9
$14.4
198.1
37.0
212.1
39.6
227.4
42.5
243.5
45.5
261.3
48.8
279.7
52.3
299.4
56.0
320.7
59.9
344.1
64.3
368.5
68.8
395.0
73.8
423.0
79.0
454.1
84.8
486.2
90.9
522.6
97.6
561.1
104.8
601.4
112.4
643.9
120.3
692.7
129.4
433.0
80.9
$8,543.6
$1,503.1

Public Transportation
Fund
(33.3%)
$45.7
117.3
125.6
134.7
144.3
154.9
165.7
177.4
190.1
203.9
218.3
234.0
250.6
269.0
288.1
309.6
332.5
356.3
381.6
410.4
256.6
$4,766.5

Total
$306.9
329.0
352.4
377.3
404.6
433.3
465.0
497.7
532.8
570.7
612.3
655.6
702.8
752.6
807.9
865.2
929.8
998.4
1,070.1
1,145.8
1,232.5
770.5
$14,813.2

Note: 1/ In FY 2005, $7.7 million was transferred from RARF to the RPTA for transit costs. This transfer amount
is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF will be divided equally
between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administrating the regional transportation plan.
2/ Reflects the current one-half cent transportation excise tax and the extension which begins on January 1, 2006.
3/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025.
Total may not add due to rounding.

Distribution
Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows:
1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in
the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance.
2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements,
including capital expense and implementation studies.
3. 33.3 percent to the public transportation fund for:
(a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications.
(b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit
system.

November 2004

8

Official Forecast Results
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year

Mean
Forecast

Official
Forecast

80% Conf.
Interval

20% Conf.
Interval

2005

$309.5

$306.9

$303.9

$316.0

2006

331.4

329.0

324.4

339.5

2007

355.1

352.4

344.9

365.3

2008
2009

380.6
407.5

377.3
404.6

368.3
393.2

393.2
422.8

2010

436.4

433.3

418.7

453.2

2011

467.3

465.0

446.2

487.6

2012
2013

499.7

497.7

474.7

523.0

2014

535.4
573.5

532.8
570.7

508.4
543.6

562.0
603.2

2015

614.0

612.3

580.7

647.1

2016
2017

657.6

655.6

618.9

695.5

2018

704.8
755.9

702.8
752.6

659.9
706.5

747.8
807.8

2019

809.6

807.9

755.1

862.7

2020

868.3

865.2

810.0

926.5

2021
2022

931.8
1,000.5

929.8
998.4

866.6
924.7

998.7
1,072.4

2023

1,072.3

1,070.1

990.7

1,153.9

2024

1,150.5

1,145.8

1,058.2

1,237.6

2025
2026 /1

1,234.6
773.0

1,232.5
770.5

1,135.6
711.2

1,323.1
830.1

$14,869.3

$14,813.2

$13,944.8

$15,769.1

Total

Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the
transportation excise tax ends on December 31, 2025.
Totals may not add due to individual rounding.

Millions of Current Dollars

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200
2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

Fiscal Year

Official Fcst

November 2004

Mean Fcst

80% Conf. Interval

20% Conf. Interval

9

Maricopa County Real Income Per Capita
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%

Growth Rate

2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fiscal Year

Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

Maricopa County Population
4.0%
3.8%
3.6%

Growth Rate

3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fiscal Year
Median

November 2004

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

10

Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate
8.0%

6.0%

Growth Rate

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

Prime Interest Rate
10.0%

9.0%

Growth Rate

8.0%

7.0%
6.0%

5.0%

4.0%
3.0%

2.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fiscal Year

Median

November 2004

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

11

Phoenix CPI
5.0%

4.5%

Growth Rate

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fiscal Year

Median

November 2004

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

12

Mean Panelist Data Values

FY 2005
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2006
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2007
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2008
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2009
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2011
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2016
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2021
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2026
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

Income
Growth

Population
Growth

Construction
Employment

Prime
Rate

Phoenix
CPI Growth

2.21
0.89
1.61

3.39
2.64
2.98

4.57
0.25
2.36

5.77
4.16
4.90

2.88
2.06
2.45

2.35
0.85
1.65

3.34
2.55
2.95

3.69
-0.94
1.49

6.36
4.48
5.38

2.79
1.97
2.37

2.26
0.70
1.65

3.30
2.43
2.89

3.35
-1.01
1.63

6.83
4.55
5.65

2.92
1.89
2.33

2.27
0.60
1.59

3.25
2.35
2.85

4.23
-0.31
2.28

7.04
4.60
5.80

3.20
1.75
2.43

2.39
0.45
1.54

3.28
2.29
2.81

4.32
0.10
2.60

7.35
4.70
5.95

3.35
1.85
2.55

2.40
0.36
1.50

3.28
2.23
2.76

4.45
-0.12
2.35

7.65
4.80
6.14

3.62
1.83
2.65

2.48
0.20
1.44

3.22
2.16
2.65

4.71
-0.50
2.35

7.85
4.85
6.28

3.85
1.77
2.66

2.47
0.14
1.38

3.18
2.01
2.59

4.71
-0.61
2.19

8.55
4.91
6.55

4.21
2.02
2.93

2.49
0.13
1.32

3.25
2.05
2.58

4.66
-0.64
2.17

8.70
5.16
6.74

4.43
2.06
3.02

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of
the prime rates which are in nominal rates.

November 2004

13

Per Capita Income Growth Rate
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
1.50 2.00 2.60 2.10 1.40
Lower 10%
0.40 0.50 0.60 0.30 -1.40
Median
1.00 1.20 1.80 1.10 0.20
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
2..2 2.20 2.20 2.00 1.90
Lower 10%
1.25 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75
Median
2.00 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
2.40 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.70
Lower 10%
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.00
Median
1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
3.30 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.20
Lower 10%
1.10 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00
Median
2.20 2.20 2.10 2.00 2.00
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
2.80 3.80 3.00 2.50 2.60
Lower 10%
0.00 0.00 -0.50 -0.50 -0.40
Median
1.30 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.50
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
2.50 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.10
Lower 10%
1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
Median
1.90 1.90 1.80 1.50 1.50
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
2.30 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90
Lower 10%
1.40 1.10 1.10 1.00 0.90
Median
2.10 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.70
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
1.60 1.40 1.10 0.70 0.90
Lower 10%
0.80 0.60 0.30 -0.10 0.10
Median
1.20 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.50
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
1.50 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.50
Lower 10%
0.50 0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00
Median
1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
2.20 2.30 2.40 2.20 2.30
Lower 10%
1.00 1.10 1.20 0.70 0.30
Median
1.60 1.70 1.80 1.50 1.30
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
2.00 2.30 2.60 2.50 2.50
Lower 10%
1.30 1.70 2.00 1.40 1.40
Median
1.70 2.00 2.30 1.80 1.80
All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.

November 2004

2011

2016

2021

2026

1.20 1.10
-1.80 -1.00
-0.40 0.00

1.50
0.20
0.80

1.50
0.20
0.80

1.90
0.50
1.50

1.50
0.00
0.80

1.25
0.00
0.75

1.50
0.20
1.00

2.80 2.90 2.80 2.80
-0.20 -1.00 -1.20 -1.50
1.50 1.40 1.30 1.10
3.10
1.00
2.00

3.00
1.00
2.00

3.00
1.00
2.00

3.00
0.90
2.00

2.90 2.80 2.90 3.00
-0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40
1.40 1.30 1.40 1.00
1.90 1.80 1.90 1.70
-0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -1.70
1.30 0.90 0.50 0.00
1.70
0.80
1.40

1.30
0.30
1.00

1.20
0.10
0.90

1.10
0.00
0.80

1.20
0.40
0.80

1.30
0.50
0.90

1.40
0.60
1.00

1.50
0.70
1.10

1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00
-1.50 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.80 0.50 0.50 0.50
-0.20 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50
0.80 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
2.60
2.00
2.30

3.00
1.00
1.80

3.50
1.25
2.00

3.50
1.25
2.00

14

Maricopa County Population Growth Rate
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
2.50 2.40 2.30 2.00 1.80 1.50
Median
2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.50
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
3.50 3.30 3.10 3.10 3.00 2.90
Lower 10%
2.90 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.40
Median
3.10 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.70
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
3.30 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.50
Lower 10%
2.30 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80
Median
2.70 2.60
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
4.00 4.00 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.50
Lower 10%
2.70 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30
Median
2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.70
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
3.00 2.90 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90
Lower 10%
3.30 2.90 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.70
Median
3.50 3.50 3.50 3.30 3.00 2.70
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
3.40 3.20 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
2.80 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40 2.20
Median
3.10 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
3.80 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.40 3.40
Lower 10%
2.70 2.70 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40
Median
3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
3.50 3.60 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.10
Lower 10%
2.50 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.10
Median
3.00 3.20 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.60
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.80
Lower 10%
2.50 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.30 2.00
Median
3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.30
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
3.10 3.10 3.10 3.20 3.10 3.00
Lower 10%
2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.60 2.30
Median
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
3.20 3.20 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.90
Lower 10%
1.90 1.90 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.70
Median
2.60 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.70 3.10
All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.

November 2004

2016

2021

2026

2.90
1.50
2.20

2.90
1.50
2.10

2.90
1.50
2.10

2.70
2.20
2.50

2.50
2.00
2.30

2.20
1.80
2.00

3.50
1.70

3.50
1.60

3.50
1.50
2.60

3.30
2.30
2.50

3.10
2.00
2.30

3.00
2.00
2.10

2.90
1.70
2.70

2.90
1.70
2.70

2.90
1.70
2.70

2.90
2.00
2.40

2.60
1.80
2.20

2.50
1.60
2.00

3.00
2.30
2.60

2.90
2.20
2.50

2.70
1.90
2.30

2.90
1.90
2.40

2.50
1.50
2.00

2.50
1.50
2.00

2.70
1.70
2.00

2.70
1.20
2.00

2.90
1.00
2.00

3.00
2.00
2.50

2.60
1.40
2.00

2.60
1.20
2.00

3.40
2.30
2.90

3.50
1.90
3.00

3.70
2.40
2.70

15

Maricopa Construction Employment Growth Rate
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011 2016

2021

2026

Panelist 1
Upper 10%
5.50 3.00
1.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50
Lower 10%
1.00 -5.50 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Median
3.50 -2.50 -4.00 2.00 4.00 4.40 3.00 3.00 3.00
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
6.50 5.00
5.00
4.50 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
4.00 2.50
2.00
2.00 1.75 1.50 1.00 0.75 0.50
Median
5.00 3.50
3.50
3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
6.00 5.50
5.30
5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.00 10.00
Lower 10%
1.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.90 -2.50 -3.00 -4.00 -5.00 -6.00
Median
4.00 2.30
2.30
2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
2.50 3.00
3.00
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
-2.00 -2.00 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50
Median
2.00 2.20
2.20
2.00 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
4.00 0.00
1.00
5.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Lower 10%
-2.00 -4.00 -3.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Median
0.00 -2.00 -1.00 2.00 2.80 2.70 3.00 3.00 3.00
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
6.30 4.60
3.50
4.00 4.50 4.00 3.80 3.80 3.80
Lower 10%
3.70 1.00
0.90
0.90 0.90 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00
Median
5.00 2.80
2.50
2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.30 2.30
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
6.00 5.00
4.00
4.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.00
Lower 10%
-1.00 -0.90 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00 -2.00 -2.00
Median
2.50 2.40
2.40
2.60 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.00
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
3.00 1.50
1.00
1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Lower 10%
2.00 0.50 -1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Median
2.50 1.00
0.00
1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
0.00 2.00
4.00
4.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Lower 10%
-7.00 -5.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Median
-5.00 0.00
3.00
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
5.00 4.00
3.00
3.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Lower 10%
3.00 2.00
1.00
1.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
Median
4.00 3.00
2.00
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
5.50 7.00
6.00
7.00 6.00 5.50 6.00 5.50 4.00
Lower 10%
0.00 1.10
2.00
1.10 2.00 0.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00
Median
2.50 3.70
5.00
3.70 5.00 2.50 4.00 2.50 3.02
All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.

November 2004

16

Prime Interest Rate
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2016
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.80 7.70 7.70
Lower 10%
4.00 4.30 4.30 4.20 4.00 3.60 3.40
Median
4.50 4.70 6.00 6.40 6.20 6.00 5.90
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
5.00 5.25 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50
Lower 10%
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.25
Median
4.25 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.50 6.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
7.50 8.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.50
Lower 10%
4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Median
5.50 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
5.00 5.20 5.60 5.80 5.80 6.00 6.00
Lower 10%
4.00 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.50 4.50 4.50
Median
4.50 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
7.40 7.10 7.40 6.80 6.50 6.60 6.80
Lower 10%
4.00 4.10 4.40 3.40 3.60 3.70 3.90
Median
6.40 6.10 5.40 4.40 4.10 4.20 4.40
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
5.50 7.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.50 9.50
Lower 10%
4.50 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 7.00 7.00
Median
5.00 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
5.40 6.40 6.80 7.80 8.90 10.00 10.40
Lower 10%
4.10 5.00 5.40 5.50 6.60 7.00 6.80
Median
4.80 5.70 6.10 6.70 7.70 8.50 8.60
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
5.00 5.20 5.40 5.40 5.90 6.20 6.50
Lower 10%
4.00 4.20 4.60 4.60 5.10 5.40 5.50
Median
4.50 4.70 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.80 6.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
5.00 5.70 6.30 6.90 7.50 8.10 8.40
Lower 10%
4.50 5.00 5.50 5.80 6.00 6.30 6.50
Median
4.80 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.70
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
6.20 6.20 7.20 7.20 8.50 8.50 9.00
Lower 10%
4.20 4.20 3.20 3.20 2.50 2.50 3.00
Median
5.20 5.20 5.20 5.50 5.50 5.50 6.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
5.50 6.40 6.40 6.50 6.50 6.00 6.00
Lower 10%
4.00 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 4.50 4.50
Median
4.50 5.70 5.70 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00
All data in the above table are nominal interest rates.

November 2004

2021

2026

8.00
3.20
5.90

8.00
3.00
5.90

7.00
4.50
6.00

7.00
4.50
6.00

11.00 12.00
4.00 4.00
6.50 6.50
8.00
4.50
6.00

8.00
4.50
6.00

7.00
4.50
5.00

7.00
4.50
5.00

10.00 10.00
7.00 7.50
8.00 8.50
10.50 10.50
6.60 6.60
8.60 8.60
6.90
5.50
6.20

6.70
5.30
6.00

9.10
6.70
7.90

9.50
6.90
8.10

10.00 10.00
2.00 4.00
6.00 7.00
6.50
5.50
6.00

7.00
6.00
6.50

17

Phoenix CPI Growth Rate
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.80
Lower 10%
2.30 2.30 2.30 2.20 2.00
Median
2.50 2.70 3.00 3.40 3.20
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Lower 10%
2.00 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30
Median
2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
2.90 3.50 4.00 4.30 4.50
Lower 10%
1.70 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40
Median
2.30 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
2.50 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.80
Lower 10%
2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10
Median
2.20 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
3.70 2.80 2.40 2.50 2.50
Lower 10%
2.50 1.80 1.40 1.50 1.50
Median
3.20 2.80 2.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
2.80 3.00 3.00 3.20 3.60
Lower 10%
2.00 2.00 1.80 1.50 2.00
Median
2.40 2.50 2.50 2.80 2.80
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
2.70 2.30 2.20 2.80 3.00
Lower 10%
2.30 1.90 1.80 1.40 1.60
Median
2.50 2.10 2.00 2.10 2.30
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
3.00 2.30 2.50 3.00 3.50
Lower 10%
2.00 1.70 1.90 2.00 2.50
Median
2.50 2.00 2.20 2.50 3.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
2.70 3.00 3.20 3.20 3.20
Lower 10%
2.20 2.50 2.70 2.50 2.40
Median
2.50 2.70 3.00 3.00 3.00
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
2.60 2.40 2.20 2.60 2.90
Lower 10%
2.20 2.00 1.80 1.80 2.10
Median
2.40 2.20 2.00 2.20 2.50
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
2.75 2.30 2.50 2.90 2.60
Lower 10%
1.50 1.90 1.40 0.50 0.50
Median
2.00 2.10 1.90 1.50 1.90
All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.

November 2004

2011 2016 2021

2026

4.70
1.80
3.00

4.70
1.80
2.80

4.80
1.80
2.80

4.80
1.80
2.80

4.00
2.50
3.00

4.00
2.50
3.20

4.50
2.50
3.50

4.50
2.50
3.80

5.50
1.30
2.50

6.50
1.10
2.50

7.50
1.00
2.50

8.50
1.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

2.50
1.50
2.00

2.90
1.90
2.40

4.40
2.40
3.40

4.70
2.70
3.70

3.60
2.00
2.80

3.80
2.00
2.80

4.00
2.50
3.00

4.00
2.50
3.00

3.70
1.90
2.80

4.30
2.10
3.20

4.50
2.00
3.50

5.00
2.00
3.50

3.90
2.10
3.00

3.90
2.10
3.00

3.90
2.10
3.00

3.90
2.10
3.00

3.20
2.20
3.00

3.00
2.00
2.70

3.00
2.00
2.70

3.00
2.00
2.70

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50

2.70
0.80
2.00

3.20
0.00
1..7

3.70
1.90
2.80

4.30
2.10
3.20

18

HISTORICAL DATA
GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

1.0%
-4.6%
-3.0%
1.6%
4.2%
3.0%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-1.0%
-0.8%
-2.5%
0.0%
4.7%
3.1%
2.0%
1.1%
1.3%
0.4%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

0.2%
-3.4%
-1.9%
-0.6%
-0.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
1.5%
1.1%

2000 2.4%
2001 1.2%
2002 -1.8%
2003 -0.8%
2004* 0.7%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

*Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Percent Change

0.06
6.0%
0.04
4.0%
0.02
2.0%
0.0%
0
-0.02
-2.0%
-0.04
-4.0%
2002
2003
2004

2001
2000
2002

1999
1998
2000

1997
1996
1998

1995
1994
1996

1993
1992
1994

1984
1986
1987
1986
1988
1989
1988
1990
1991
1990
1992

1982
1984
1985

1980
1982
1983

1978
1980
1981

1976
1978
1979

1974
1977
1976

1975
1972
1974

-0.06
-6.0%

Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal Year
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2004

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
-1.8%
2.4%
0.3%
-1.8%
2.4%
0.6%
-4.6%
4.7%
0.3%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower Upper
1.7% -1.4% 1.9%
1.2% -0.9% 1.6%
2.1% -2.5% 3.0%

19

HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.7%
4.5%
3.7%
2.7%
2.2%
2.2%
2.5%
3.1%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

4.4%
5.7%
5.9%
6.4%
5.2%
3.0%
2.1%
3.9%
4.4%
4.9%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

4.8%
2.6%
2.9%
3.2%
4.4%
5.3%
4.2%
4.5%
2.9%
2.6%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.8%
4.9%
5.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.3%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

3.1%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%

DES smoothed out the 191 to 2003. FY 2004-2020 based on annual growth rates in ASU Population Estimates
and Projections report dated December 2001. FY 2021-2026 based on trend average.

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.07
7.0%

Percent
Percent Change
Change

0.06
6.0%
0.05
5.0%
0.04
4.0%
0.03
3.0%
0.02
2.0%

2004

2002

1996
1994
1998
1996
2000
1998
2002
2000

1994
1992

1992
1990

1990
1988

1988
1986

1984
1986

1982
1984

1980
1982

1978
1980

0
0.0%

1962
1962
1964
1964
1966
1966
1968
1968
1970
1970
1972
1972
1974
1974
1976
1976
1978

0.01
1.0%

FiscalFiscal
Year Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2004

Historical
Min.
Max. Mean
3.1%
3.3% 3.2%
3.1%
5.0% 3.6%
2.1%
6.4% 3.8%

Std.
80% Range
Dev. Lower Upper
0.1% 3.1% 3.3%
0.6% 3.1% 4.1%
1.1% 2.5% 5.2%

20

HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

8.3%
3.6%
33.3%
-10.5%
59.2%
-1.9%
5.2%
46.9%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

18.2%
5.9%
24.9%
21.3%
0.4%
-19.3%
-16.3%
14.7%
38.7%
32.7%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

5.2%
-6.7%
-6.5%
5.4%
23.4%
20.3%
7.9%
-5.8%
-9.8%
-9.1%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-7.2%
-6.5%
-2.4%
9.5%
15.4%
15.8%
9.7%
5.8%
8.7%
9.7%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

5.8%
6.2%
3.1%
0.8%
2.5%

*Estimate

2002
2003
2004

2001
2000
2002

1999
1998
2000

1997
1996
1998

1986
1987
1986
1988
1988
1989
1990
1990
1991
1992
1993
1992
1994
1994
1995
1996

1984
1984
1985

1982
1982
1983

1980
1980
1981

1979
1978

1976
1977
1976

1975
1974
1974

1962
1964
1965
1964
1966
1967
1966
1968
1969
1968
1970
1971
1970
1973
1972
1972

70.0%
0.7
60.0%
0.6
50.0%
0.5
40.0%
0.4
30.0%
0.3
20.0%
0.2
10.0%
0.1
0.0%
0
-0.1
-10.0%
-0.2
-20.0%
-0.3
-30.0%
1962
1963

Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal
FiscalYear
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2004

Historical
Min.
Max.
0.8%
6.2%
0.8% 15.8%
-19.3% 59.2%

Mean
3.7%
6.8%
8.5%

Std.
Dev.
2.3%
4.4%
16.3%

80% Range
Lower Upper
1.5%
6.0%
2.3% 10.3%
-8.7% 31.2%

21

HISTORICAL DATA
PRIME INTEREST RATE

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
5.8%
6.0%
6.9%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

8.4%
6.6%
5.4%
6.1%
9.8%
9.8%
7.2%
6.6%
7.7%
10.9%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

15.0%
16.6%
17.5%
12.0%
11.3%
11.4%
9.2%
7.7%
8.7%
10.6%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

10.3%
9.5%
7.2%
6.0%
6.2%
8.4%
8.5%
8.3%
8.5%
8.0%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

8.6%
8.7%
5.3%
4.4%
4.0%

2002
2004
2003

2001
2000
2002

1999
1998
2000

1996
1997
1998

1993
1992
1994
1995
1994
1996

1972
1973
1972
1974
1975
1974
1976
1977
1976
1978
1979
1978
1980
1981
1980
1982
1983
1982
1984
1985
1984
1986
1987
1986
1988
1989
1988
1990
1991
1990
1992

1968
1969
1968
1970
1971
1970

1966
1967
1966

1964
1965

20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1962
1963

Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2004

Historical
Min.
Max.
4.0%
8.7%
4.0%
8.7%
4.0% 17.5%

Mean
6.2%
7.3%
8.1%

Std.
Dev.
2.3%
1.9%
3.1%

80% Range
Lower Upper
4.2%
8.7%
4.4%
8.6%
4.5% 11.4%

22

HISTORICAL DATA
PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972 6.1%
1973 5.6%
1974 7.6%
1975 11.7%
1976 11.1%
1977 7.7%
1978 7.7%
1979 10.7%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

13.7%
13.6%
10.0%
5.5%
3.5%
4.6%
4.2%
2.9%
3.4%
4.3%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

4.9%
4.7%
3.4%
3.1%
3.6%
4.0%
4.6%
4.9%
4.4%
3.9%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

3.4%
2.4%
1.8%
1.7%
2.1%

* Estimate

2004

1991
1990
1992
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1996
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003

1989
1988
1990

1987
1986
1988

1984
1985
1986

1984
1982
1983

1982
1980
1981

0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1974
1972
1973
1976
1974
1975
1978
1976
1977
1980
1978
1979

16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1972

Percent Change
Percent Change

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Fiscal
Fiscal
Year
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2004

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
1.7%
3.4% 2.3%
1.7%
4.9% 3.3%
1.7% 13.7% 5.6%

Std.
80% Range
Dev. Lower Upper
0.7% 1.7%
3.0%
1.2% 1.8%
4.6%
3.4% 2.5% 11.0%

23