A P R I L
2 0 0 3
ECONOMY
STILL STUCK
IN NEUTRAL
By Marshall J. Vest
Forecasting Project Director
February 28, 2003
E
conomic recovery is being held
hostage by geopolitical tension,
including Iraq, North Korea,
the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the
threat of terrorism. Until the
situation in Iraq is resolved, the
economy is likely to continue in a
sideways pattern as decision makers
remain on the sidelines, waiting to see
what happens. If the war is short and
decisive, hesitancy will fade and
economic growth will resume in
earnest. Arizona’s economy remains
in neutral, but appears poised to
expand. Look for better results by
midyear.
RECENT EVIDENCE
FOR ARIZONA
Arizona’s labor market sluggishness
continued through year-end 2002 with little
growth in non-farm employment. This flat
pattern – neither growth nor losses — has
been in place now for nearly a year. There
are signs of life in some sectors, however.
Services and construction both are off
recent lows and are beginning to look like
what one would expect in the early phases
of a recovery. Federal government payrolls
also are up sharply, reflecting the huge
boost in federal spending that has been
propping up the national economy
S P R I N G
(Exhibit 1) — new Border Patrol and
airport screeners, mainly, but also more
CIA, FBI and Customs workers.
Business services, the industry that
registered the largest losses during the
recession, added 5,000 jobs during the past
six months. Since this classification
includes the “contingent workforce,” i.e.,
temporary help and contract workers who
suffered most from recent cutbacks, this
should be one of the first sectors to register
gains when things improve.
The bad news is that manufacturing
payrolls continue to plunge. Since peaking
in January 2001, more than 27,000 jobs
have disappeared, and there is no end in
sight (Exhibit 2). This is the worst decline
for Arizona manufacturers ever, surpassing
the losses of a decade ago.
Joining manufacturing in the list of
industries that continue to slide is mining,
communications & utilities, and FIRE
(finance, insurance, and real estate) as well
as travel-related sectors. Hotels and
transportation sectors have yet to stage a
recovery after plunging in late 2001.
This is the last look at employment using
the SIC coding system. By mid-March, we’ll
have new industry detail using the NAICS
coding system.
The outlook for job markets going
forward is mixed. Help wanted ads in
Phoenix, collected by the Conference Board,
remains near recession lows, while a survey
of hiring intentions conducted by Manpower
is downright encouraging: net hiring
strength for the second quarter is back
I S S U E
above positive 20 — almost back to the
readings that prevailed in the second half of
the 1990s.
Consumer confidence, on the other hand,
stands at the lowest level since late 1993.
War worries and the poor job market are
the major reasons. Arizona consumer
confidence is measured by the Behavior
Research Center with sponsorship from
Stockton Capital Management and Trust of
Scottsdale.
Measures of consumer spending and
personal income show little if any
acceleration in recent months, although the
change in individual income tax collections
have moved closer to zero from decidedly
negative readings of a few months ago
(Exhibit 3).
No doubt the most amazing feature in
recent months is the strength in
homebuilding and resale housing markets.
Driven by low interest rates and recognition
of housing as an investment vehicle,
homebuilding ended 2002 near record
levels (Exhibit 4).
After significant upward movement,
single-family construction statewide
approached 58,000 at an annual rate as the
year came to an end. Metro Phoenix
accounts for the gain – Metro Tucson
remained steady near recent highs. The
upward surge is truly remarkable, given
weakness in labor markets and falling
confidence. Low interest rates and a strong
investment motive account for the surge.
Fortunately, there are few signs of a
bubble in housing in Arizona markets.
I N S I D E
THE ELLER COLLEGE
See
Page 16
BREAKFAST
WITH THE
ECONOMISTS
NAICS ARE COMING! ............3
ARIZONA’S STATE BUDGET
MESS SELF INFLICTED............5
THE BUDGET CRISIS WAS
PREDICTABLE.......................5
STATISTICAL ABSTRACT .........6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ........7
ELLER COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
T UCSON, ARIZONA
EXHIBIT 1
Federal Spending Boosts Jobs
EXHIBIT 2
Where’s the Bottom?
Federal Government Employment, Arizona (seasonally adjusted)
Manufacturing Employment, Arizona (seasonally adjusted)
000s
Shaded areas denote recession
000s
Shaded areas denote recession
Note: Decennial Census in 2Q of 80, 90, 2000
According to a repeat sales index from
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac databases,
housing prices increased by 4.5% during
the year ending in third quarter 2002. That
was less than nationwide, which saw prices
rise 6.2%. Prices in Phoenix rose 4.0%,
Tucson 5.8%, Flagstaff 5.7% and Yuma
2.5%. Those are far from excessive, and
short of what one might expect if an asset
bubble were building.
Yet there is a lingering fear that recent
trends in housing markets are too good to
last. In fact, there are a number of reasons
to worry. In addition to low consumer
confidence, there are mounting signs of
household financial distress. Personal
bankruptcies, auto repossession rates,
manufactured housing loan delinquencies,
net charge-off on credit cards, FHA/VA
mortgage delinquencies, and mortgage
foreclosure rates on conventional mortgage
loans are all setting new records. Lenders
are tightening credit standards as credit
quality deteriorates, and Freddie Mac and
Fannie Mae are introducing new fees on
cash out re-financings. Households today
hold $5.8 trillion in mortgage liabilities on
their balance sheets – an increase of 40% in
the past four years. All these are worrisome
signs for homebuilding in the coming months.
PAGE TWO
THE OUTLOOK
We expect modest recovery as the year
unfolds. A short and decisive victory in the
war with Iraq will bring a collective sigh of
relief from consumers, CEOs and investors
alike. CEOs will unlock long-delayed plans
to grow their companies, and that will
provide the spark needed to get the
economy rolling. However, it will take at
least a few more months for manufacturing
to turn around, given excess capacity and
weak economies among global trading
partners. Auto sales and homebuilding will
weaken from unsustainable levels, and
consumers will restrain spending to pay
down debt as interest rates rise and the
opportunity to do cash-out refinancing
disappears. Therefore, we should expect
only gradual improvement in the second
half that will lead to solid growth in 2004.
We look for the Arizona economy to
generate about 40,000 net new jobs this
year, for growth just under two percent.
The following year and beyond should bring
growth in excess of four percent. The
services industry will lead the way, with
business services registering the largest
gains. Manufacturing should reverse course
by the third quarter, but it will be 2006
before the jobs that have been lost are
recovered. Government payrolls will see
little if any growth this year or next, due to
budget cutting. See the accompanying
forecast table.
Personal income numbers will look
better this year and next as companies bring
back bonuses and some stock options rise
above water once again. Look for a gain
exceeding 5.5% this year and 7.5% next
year.
Consumers will spend more as the
economy recovers, but spending will not
grow as fast as personal income while
households repair their balance sheets and
pay off some debt. It will be 2005 before
retail sales catch up to personal income
growth. Look for retail sales gains to
average 5.5% this year and next.
Population growth continues to slow, and
will struggle to reach two percent this year.
That means roughly 100,000 new residents
this year, down from nearly 150,000 only
two years ago. Next year will bring
125,000, then 150,000 in 2005.
Although the recovery remains in neutral
in early 2003, and risks are sky-high, the
best bet is that the economy will gain
momentum as the year unfolds.■
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
EXHIBIT 3
Volatile Withholding Shows Improvement
EXHIBIT 4
A Remarkable Year for Homebuilding
Individual Income Tax Withholding, Arizona
Building Permits, Arizona (SAAR, smoothed)
% Change vs. YA
000s
NAICS ARE COMING!
S P O N S O R S
Over the past couple of years, Federal statistical agencies have been converting to the North
American Industrial Classification System (NAICS, rhymes with “snakes”). This new integrated
North American coding scheme has over 350 new industries and a six-digit coding scheme,
compared to the old four-digit SIC (Standard Industrial Codes) structure. NAICS groups the
economy into 20 broad sectors compared to only 10 SIC divisions. While a substantial
improvement, it introduces breaks in time series far more profound than earlier revisions. Data
for roughly two-thirds of all four-digit SICs will be derivable from the NAICS system.
Arizona Department of Commerce
In the next few months the new system will be reflected in measures used by forecasting
models across the country. Last November, the Federal Reserve’s data on industrial production
changed to NAICS, with history back to 1972. In December, new input-output tables were
released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In June, employment data from the Current
Employment Statistics (CES) program will be released. Global Insight, our provider of national
forecasts, will be extensively revising their models to incorporate these changes.
City of Mesa
In mid-March, the Arizona Department of Economic Security will begin publishing their
monthly employment data on NAICS basis. The release will include historical data to 1990 for
statewide totals and metro areas. Historical data for counties will be available back only to 2001.
In the April-May time frame, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (regional statistics office) will
switch personal income by industry and source to NAICS. Quarterly personal income for Arizona
will be available historically only for 2002. The annual series for state and county personal
income will go back to 2001.
KB Home
All these changes will necessitate extensive re-specification of our state and metro models – a
process that is likely to stretch into the summer or fall as additional data is received. We’ll
continue to issue forecasts using whatever data is available, during what promises to be a very
busy period for us. These changes will improve our understanding of economic trends and
(hopefully) result in better forecasts.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee
Arizona Public Service Company
Bank One Arizona
CB Richard Ellis
City of Tucson
Compass Bank
Elliott D. Pollack and Company
Merrill Lynch
Northern Trust Bank of Arizona
Pima Association of Governments
Pima County
Salt River Project
Tucson Electric Power Company
Tucson Newspapers
PAGE THREE
F O R E C A S T
Forecasts for Arizona
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change
T A B L E S
2001
137,313.5
4.8
25,811
1.9
55,417.7
2.1
5,319.9
2.9
107.4
2,267.0
1.1
384.6
-0.5
165.0
2.1
210.1
-2.4
1,882.4
1.4
533.3
1.3
711.2
0.4
2002
143,186.8
4.3
26,250
1.7
56,582.6
2.1
5,454.8
2.5
68.5
2,248.8
-0.8
362.3
-5.8
159.8
-3.2
193.7
-7.8
1,886.5
0.2
538.2
0.9
706.5
-0.7
2003
151,344.7
5.7
27,225
3.7
59,409.3
5.0
5,559.0
1.9
69.4
2,289.3
1.8
357.6
-1.3
163.9
2.6
185.4
-4.3
1,931.7
2.4
546.8
1.6
734.6
4.0
2004
163,001.3
7.7
28,684
5.4
62,664.9
5.5
5,682.6
2.2
100.6
2,382.8
4.1
356.9
-0.2
162.0
-1.2
186.9
0.8
2,025.9
4.9
570.2
4.3
790.4
7.6
2005
175,938.4
7.9
30,136
5.1
67,588.6
7.9
5,838.1
2.7
118.7
2,486.8
4.4
371.4
4.1
167.8
3.6
195.6
4.7
2,115.5
4.4
593.5
4.1
835.1
5.7
2006
191,501.2
8.8
31,890
5.8
72,842.0
7.8
6,005.1
2.9
129.7
2,601.8
4.6
391.1
5.3
176.1
4.9
207.2
5.9
2,210.7
4.5
619.5
4.4
879.9
5.4
2007
206,457.4
7.8
33,412
4.8
77,969.2
7.0
6,179.1
2.9
125.1
2,700.9
3.8
407.9
4.3
185.0
5.1
215.2
3.8
2,293.0
3.7
643.8
3.9
917.5
4.3
Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change
2001
93,005.2
3.0
27,525
-0.1
37,876.4
1.6
3,378.9
3.1
67.1
1,597.4
1.0
282.9
-1.4
120.7
1.4
159.7
-3.4
1,314.5
1.5
382.5
1.9
517.5
-0.1
2002
95,369.7
2.5
27,563
0.1
37,862.5
0.0
3,460.1
2.4
47.5
1,582.7
-0.9
271.8
-3.9
119.3
-1.1
149.9
-6.2
1,310.9
-0.3
382.6
0.0
514.4
-0.6
2003
100,571.3
5.5
28,501
3.4
39,842.4
5.2
3,528.7
2.0
36.4
1,614.7
2.0
266.0
-2.1
118.3
-0.9
145.2
-3.1
1,348.6
2.9
386.9
1.1
535.5
4.1
2004
108,034.0
7.4
29,839
4.7
41,963.1
5.3
3,620.6
2.6
59.4
1,676.8
3.9
263.6
-0.9
117.2
-0.9
143.9
-0.9
1,413.2
4.8
398.5
3.0
572.6
6.9
2005
116,979.6
8.3
31,349
5.1
45,685.2
8.9
3,731.5
3.1
77.3
1,747.1
4.2
271.6
3.0
121.4
3.5
147.7
2.7
1,475.5
4.4
413.9
3.9
602.2
5.2
2006
127,556.2
9.0
33,125
5.7
49,400.5
8.1
3,850.7
3.2
84.7
1,825.3
4.5
284.2
4.6
127.4
5.0
154.2
4.4
1,541.2
4.4
430.3
4.0
632.6
5.0
2007
137,704.1
8.0
34,685
4.7
52,860.2
7.0
3,970.1
3.1
84.7
1,895.4
3.8
295.0
3.8
133.5
4.8
159.0
3.1
1,600.4
3.8
445.9
3.6
660.3
4.4
Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area
Personal Income ($ mill)
percent change
Per Capita Personal Income
percent change
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
percent change
Population (000s, mid-year)
percent change
Net Migration (000s)
Wage & Salary Employment (000s)
percent change
Goods-Producing
percent change
Construction
percent change
Manufacturing
percent change
Service-Providing
percent change
Trade (Wholesale & Retail)
percent change
Services
percent change
2001
21,010.6
4.4
24,133
1.9
8,655.6
1.8
870.6
2.5
16.2
350.7
0.1
57.2
0.5
21.7
-0.8
33.7
1.7
293.5
0.1
72.1
-0.7
117.7
-0.7
2002
21,760.4
3.6
24,473
1.4
8,713.9
0.7
889.2
2.1
13.4
347.4
-1.0
54.7
-4.4
21.1
-2.9
32.1
-4.8
292.7
-0.3
71.2
-1.2
117.0
-0.5
2003
23,124.2
6.3
25,440
4.0
9,194.0
5.5
909.0
2.2
14.4
357.2
2.8
55.6
1.6
21.6
2.2
32.8
2.5
301.6
3.1
72.0
1.1
123.0
5.1
2004
24,918.0
7.8
26,682
4.9
9,801.8
6.6
933.9
2.7
19.2
374.0
4.7
56.5
1.6
21.9
1.6
33.4
1.8
317.5
5.3
74.7
3.7
133.0
8.2
2005
26,606.0
6.8
27,836
4.3
10,350.4
5.6
955.8
2.3
16.1
386.6
3.4
57.5
1.7
22.5
2.6
33.9
1.4
329.2
3.7
77.6
3.9
139.4
4.8
2006
28,415.0
6.8
29,113
4.6
10,923.6
5.5
976.0
2.1
14.2
396.5
2.6
58.3
1.5
23.1
2.6
34.3
1.1
338.2
2.7
80.1
3.3
144.2
3.4
2007
30,196.2
6.3
30,333
4.2
11,444.8
4.8
995.5
2.0
13.3
405.0
2.2
59.0
1.2
23.5
1.8
34.6
1.0
346.0
2.3
82.0
2.3
148.6
3.1
*Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Eller College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona
PAGE FOUR
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
also note outdated technologies at the state’s
Department of Revenue. This is perhaps the
best (and unbiased) currently available
analysis of state taxation across the country.
A second report, from the Institute on
Taxation and Economic Policy called “Who
Pays,” provides
state-by-state measures of regressiveness
(low- and middle-income taxpayers pay a
larger share of their income than wealthy
taxpayers). Findings here show that
Arizona’s tax structure has become much
more regressive during the 1990s as taxes
were shifted from income to sales taxes
(nearly one half of all taxes collected today
are from transactions). In Arizona,
taxpayers in the lowest 20% of the income
distribution give 12.5% of their income to
state and local taxes. The wealthiest one
percent pays only 4.9%. That gives Arizona
the dubious distinction of having one of the
most regressive systems in the country. As
Arizona lawmakers consider changing the
structure of taxes, the ability to pay will be a
key criterion.
The third study, from the Cato Institute
titled States Face Fiscal Crunch after 1990s
Spending Spree,
argues that states simply spent too much
during the good times. They propose to
limit state spending to the sum of
population growth and inflation. The
authors then note that from 1990 to 2001,
spending in Arizona didn’t grow that much;
spending grew by 93%, population growth
plus inflation by 96%. Arizona was one of
three states that grew less. In other words,
spending was not the problem here in
Arizona.
The fourth study, published by the Center
for Business Research at Arizona State
University called Public Finance in Arizona,
finds
that “as a percent of personal income,
revenues currently are the lowest since
records began in FY 1971.” Moreover,
“The combined tax burden in AZ is below
the national average… between 11 and
17%…and has dropped considerably since
the early 1990s.” Additionally, “Per capita
spending on operations in FY 2000 was 5th
lowest, 19% below average.”
After reading these reports, it is clear that
Arizona neither spends nor taxes too much
and that both adequacy and fairness of the
state’s tax system have been seriously
compromised by too much tax cutting in
recent years. ■
making up that lost revenue by imposing
new taxes, raising existing taxes, or
reversing a tax cut requires a two-thirds
majority. Even revenue-neutral changes,
designed to improve the fairness of the tax
structure, require a super-majority because
equity adjustments require a tax increase on
one group of taxpayers to offset a tax
decrease on another group. The supermajority requirement acts like a ratchet, in
which tax decreases made during an
economic expansion always become
permanent.
Throughout the 1990s, enormous tax cuts
permanently downsized the General Fund.
According to the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee staff, $1.2 billion was cut from
General Fund revenues since 1993. When
these JLBC estimates are permitted to grow
with population and inflation, the tax cuts
are closer to $1.8 billion. This amount,
almost 1/3rd of the General Fund, is lost
each year.
While the idea of continual tax cuts sound
good, the sole purpose of taxation is to
provide public services. During the decade
of the 90s, Arizona teacher salaries dropped
from 23rd to 41st among states. (Prop 301,
a 0.6 percent increase in sales taxes
earmarked for education that boosted
teacher salaries, improved the ranking to
36th in FY 2002.) Average per-pupil
expenditures in primary and secondary
schools fell from 33rd to 49th between
1989 and 2002 and the percentage of 18 to
24-year olds in Arizona who have a high
school credential fell from 83% in 1990 to
75% in 1998. While private sector
employees enjoyed a 20% increase in real
income from 1990 to 2001, state and local
government employees suffered a 14.9
percent decline in purchasing power.
Public employee salaries are extremely low
across the board and our universities are
experiencing brain drain as faculty leave to
take higher paying positions elsewhere.
While handing out politically popular tax
cuts, the Legislature balanced the budget on
the backs of public employees, teachers,
and Arizona’s children. (continued page 6)
ARIZONA’S STATE BUDGET MESS SELF INFLICTED
By Marshall J. Vest
Four new studies released in the past few
weeks provide answers to how the state’s
budget got into such a deep hole. Contrary
to assertions that the recession and too
much government spending caused current
budget woes, it is clear that the deficits
resulted from overzealous tax cutting and
failure to adequately fund the Budget
Stabilization Fund (commonly known as the
rainy day fund).
Beginning in fiscal year 1993, legislators
approved a series of tax cuts totaling more
than $1.2 billion dollars. That is one third
of the taxes collected in fiscal year 1992!
Adjusted to growth in population and
inflation, these cuts approach $1.8 billion in
today’s dollars (compared to a $6 billion
general fund budget).
The February 2003 issue of Governing
magazine gives
Arizona two stars on adequacy, fairness, and
administration. Two stars mean that the
state could continue to function, but there
are clear elements that could benefit from
change. Due to large tax cuts during the
past decade, both adequacy and fairness of
the system have suffered greatly. Editors
THE BUDGET CRISIS
WAS PREDICTABLE
By Alberta H. Charney, Ph.D.
Five factors caused the current budget
crises and both the crises and the severity of
the crisis were entirely predictable. In
1994’s Arizona’s Economy, I wrote: “The
combination of (1) under funding the rainy
day fund during an upswing period, (2)
numerous tax cuts which are likely to
permanently downsize the General Fund,
(3) a super-majority requirement for all tax
increases, (4) the strong cyclicality of
revenues, and (5) an increased demand for
social services during recessions will result
in severe expenditure cuts in some
government services in the next economic
downturn.”
In 1992, a referendum passed that
required a super-majority (2/3rds) of the
Legislature to pass a tax increase. Tax cuts
can be implemented by a 50% majority, but
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
PAGE FIVE
(continued from page 5)
The Budget Stabilization Fund (aka the
Rainy Day Fund) was established in 1990 to
smooth out the fluctuations in Arizona’s
revenue streams. Although a wonderful idea,
the fund has failed to adequately serve the
needs of the state. The fund is limited to seven
percent of the General Fund, but the three
major sources of revenue – sales, individual
income, and corporate income taxes – can fall
by as much as 15%, 10% and 30%,
respectively, during economic downturns.
Since these revenue sources comprise 94
percent of all tax revenues to the General Fund,
the seven percent limit is too low to adequately
cover even one year of a recession. To make
matters worse, recessions typically impact
more than one fiscal budget. Finally, the
funding formulas are designed only to smooth
out revenue fluctuations, not to account for
recession-induced increases in the number of
families qualifying for public support and
health care. Approximately $800 million of the
$1 billion deficit projected for FY03-04 is due
to increasing caseloads in AHCCCS and welfare,
and more students in public schools. These
increases either are voter mandated, court
ordered or formula driven.
These factors work together to create a
structural deficit that isn’t going away anytime
soon. During the prosperous decade of the
1990s, the Legislature chose to significantly cut
the level of public services in Arizona. With the
funding of public services already at an all-time
low, budget cuts may literally destroy some of
our public institutions and seriously
compromise Arizona’s ability to compete in
high-tech industries of the New Economy.
The combination of volatile revenues,
recessions that last more than one fiscal year,
and the burgeoning of families eligible for
social services during a recession suggests that
the Budget Stabilization Fund limit be
increased to 40 percent of the General Fund.
The super-majority should be eliminated
through a referendum so that the elected
Legislature can make critical decisions
regarding the structure of the tax system and
the level of taxation, through a majority vote.
Additionally, future tax cuts should be
temporary so that revenues are available
during the next recession.
In the meantime, the Legislature is
hamstrung in any attempts to raise critical
revenues or restructure the tax system, thereby
denying Arizonans needed public services and
the infrastructure upon which to build a 21st
century economy. ■
PAGE SIX
Now taking orders for the
2003 Arizona Statistical Abstract
T
Arizona ract
t
Statistical A3bs
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book
Data Hand
Data
00 Census
0
2
s
e
d
lu
c
In
ogram
Research Pr istration
d Business
min
Economic an siness and Public Ad
of Bu
ona
Eller College The University of Ariz
izona
Tucson, Ar
he authoritative source for economic and
social information for Arizona and its
political subdivisions, the 2003 Arizona
Statistical Abstract includes data on physical
resources of the state, human resources (such
as population, vital statistics, health, education,
employment and welfare), public sector activities,
and various economic measures such as output,
sales, jobs, etc. Included are statistics from
numerous sources such as the 2000 Census of
Population and Housing, Economic Censuses,
Annual Survey of Manufacturers, and County
Business Patterns, to name a few. Data are
presented by jurisdiction as well as
comparisons to other states. The presentation
is both comprehensive and concise.
The new 2003 edition of the Arizona Statistical
Abstract will be published by the end of April
2003. Order your copy now by filling out the
form below and return it by mail with a check
payable to Economic and Business Research.
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ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
A R I Z O N A
YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Mohave County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
73,050
48,800
24,250
33.2
69,925
48,950
20,975
30.0
67,900
50,675
17,225
25.4
65,250
51,225
14,025
21.5
63,675
52,350
11,325
17.8
6.2
3.9
18.3
11.4
1.2
2.6
-3.0
-4.9
39,875
2,950
1,850
1,600
10,050
1,300
10,200
11,925
40,375
2,950
1,775
1,600
10,200
1,325
10,250
12,275
41,375
2,925
1,775
1,625
10,650
1,375
10,375
12,650
42,325
2,900
1,800
1,650
11,150
1,425
10,650
12,750
44,000
2,850
2,300
1,750
12,350
1,450
10,775
12,525
0.5
1.8
1.1
11.1
-3.1
5.5
2.1
0.6
0.7
0.8
-16.5
10.4
-2.4
2.4
4.4
2.6
84,127
64,560
8,916
10,651
7,570
14,406
85,996
67,556
8,593
9,847
7,111
17,825
88,028
68,209
9,604
10,215
7,578
27,758
105,230
83,658
10,331
11,241
8,349
18,458
132,285
108,081
12,376
11,828
9,070
23,698
8.7
6.6
9.6
30.1
2.3
9.8
3.7
3.5
7.2
1.9
9.3
19.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
78,450
74,375
4,075
5.2
78,225
74,075
4,150
5.3
77,400
73,425
3,975
5.1
77,275
73,425
3,850
5.0
77,025
73,250
3,775
4.9
4.1
4.2
3.4
-0.7
5.0
4.5
15.7
10.2
48,350
75
4,825
3,375
2,350
13,975
1,675
11,550
10,525
48,425
75
4,975
3,350
2,350
13,950
1,700
11,400
10,625
48,500
75
5,050
3,350
2,425
14,000
1,700
11,250
10,650
48,950
75
5,100
3,325
2,425
14,350
1,675
11,225
10,775
49,275
75
5,075
3,300
2,425
14,225
1,675
11,275
11,225
2.7
0
9.7
-2.9
3.2
-0.7
9.8
1.8
5.9
0.8
-21.7
-1.0
-2.4
1.9
0.0
6.0
-0.3
4.4
129,948
95,251
14,089
20,608
14,648
29,884
110,225
81,847
13,795
14,583
10,531
28,737
140,626
112,868
13,326
14,432
10,707
33,926
118,283
90,564
14,825
12,894
9,577
27,394
139,148
109,501
14,752
14,895
11,421
29,018
9.6
7.1
9.1
32.9
4.5
0.6
8.1
10.6
5.6
-3.0
4.0
17.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
PAGE SEVEN
A R I Z O N A
COCHISE COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
42,750
40,550
2,200
5.1
42,200
40,125
2,075
4.9
42,250
40,175
2,075
4.9
42,325
40,225
2,100
5.0
42,400
40,275
2,125
5.0
2.5
2.3
7.6
4.9
2.8
2.1
17.2
14.1
32,900
2,175
900
1,250
7,550
775
9,025
11,225
32,825
2,100
900
1,225
7,575
775
8,850
11,400
32,900
2,050
850
1,225
7,750
800
8,775
11,450
33,250
2,000
800
1,225
7,950
800
8,900
11,575
33,325
1,975
800
1,225
8,000
775
8,925
11,625
-0.2
-6.0
-13.5
-5.8
-0.6
6.9
-0.8
2.9
-0.6
-4.1
-11.6
-3.2
-2.1
2.2
-0.1
2.0
63,643
49,625
6,938
7,080
5,032
11,733
59,674
46,048
7,166
6,460
4,665
13,109
61,957
48,470
7,215
6,272
4,654
11,632
63,693
50,212
7,294
6,187
4,595
13,488
87,032
72,259
7,983
6,790
5,207
15,838
12.6
13.8
-1.2
19.2
-6.2
19.0
5.3
3.8
7.7
14.8
21.2
14.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
14,925
12,150
2,775
18.6
14,575
11,850
2,725
18.7
14,600
12,050
2,550
17.5
14,100
12,300
1,800
12.8
14,050
12,550
1,500
10.7
4.7
5.5
-1.6
-6.0
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.3
12,250
425
750
1,200
4,450
400
1,475
3,550
12,075
425
725
1,200
4,475
425
1,500
3,325
12,375
425
725
1,225
4,625
425
1,625
3,325
12,625
425
700
1,275
4,775
425
1,625
3,400
13,000
425
700
1,300
5,050
450
1,650
3,425
3.2
6.3
-20.0
6.1
3.6
0.0
6.5
6.2
2.2
1.0
-18.8
3.3
4.8
-3.0
-0.4
6.4
27,866
22,112
2,703
3,051
2,169
4,531
24,589
19,361
2,495
2,733
1,974
3,666
27,108
21,767
2,606
2,735
2,029
4,205
30,417
24,952
2,613
2,852
2,119
3,507
40,643
34,242
3,421
2,980
2,285
3,874
7.6
6.7
18.1
6.8
-16.0
15.0
2.4
4.3
1.1
-9.7
-3.1
1.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE EIGHT
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
A R I Z O N A
GILA COUNTY
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining (Greenlee County only)
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
18,025
16,675
1,350
7.5
17,650
16,350
1,300
7.4
17,200
16,000
1,200
7.0
17,300
16,050
1,250
7.2
17,200
15,975
1,225
7.1
0.0
-0.5
6.5
6.5
1.3
-0.5
29.5
27.7
13,775
650
825
875
475
3,075
275
2,900
4,700
13,675
650
825
850
475
3,100
275
2,850
4,650
13,575
625
800
850
475
3,100
275
2,750
4,700
13,625
650
800
850
475
3,175
275
2,750
4,650
13,575
625
800
850
475
3,200
275
2,700
4,650
-2.2
-7.4
-17.9
-10.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
-3.6
1.6
-3.0
-5.4
-17.5
-11.3
0.4
0.5
-3.7
-2.0
-1.0
27,140
19,552
4,302
3,286
2,336
7,758
24,902
18,357
3,725
2,820
2,036
8,676
24,408
18,162
3,580
2,666
1,978
7,455
24,268
18,676
3,259
2,333
1,733
7,591
30,332
23,752
3,992
2,588
1,984
8,310
8.3
6.2
9.9
28.8
1.3
0.5
-3.8
-2.1
-2.2
-15.8
-9.6
0.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
13,850
12,725
1,125
8.1
13,875
12,775
1,100
7.9
14,100
13,025
1,075
7.6
13,925
12,875
1,050
7.5
13,850
12,800
1,050
7.6
2.6
3.9
-10.6
-12.9
-1.0
-1.1
0.2
1.2
10,025
2,125
475
300
200
2,250
200
1,475
3,000
10,175
2,125
450
275
200
2,225
200
1,450
3,250
10,325
2,225
450
275
225
2,250
175
1,450
3,275
10,300
2,100
450
275
225
2,300
175
1,450
3,325
10,275
2,100
425
275
225
2,325
175
1,450
3,300
1.0
-1.2
0.0
-15.4
0.0
-1.1
-12.5
-7.9
11.9
-4.2
-8.1
-25.1
-10.6
-8.3
-0.2
-10.6
-7.9
3.1
19,096
16,090
1,304
1,702
1,210
3,926
18,099
15,110
1,354
1,635
1,181
6,809
18,252
14,612
1,912
1,728
1,282
3,617
19,606
16,739
1,333
1,534
1,140
6,157
22,998
19,892
1,574
1,532
1,175
3,801
21.3
23.7
-7.6
30.4
2.6
14.6
-5.4
-6.0
-0.1
-4.8
1.3
8.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
PAGE NINE
A R I Z O N A
APACHE-NAVAJO REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION
Civilian Labor Force, ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Gross Retail
Retail
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge
Total
One Family Houses
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
53,350
47,500
5,850
11.0
52,400
47,275
5,125
9.8
51,050
46,000
5,050
9.9
51,575
45,775
5,800
11.2
51,475
45,550
5,925
11.5
1.0
-0.6
15.6
14.4
1.1
0.9
2.9
1.7
46,200
850
1,950
1,125
2,625
7,675
1,375
7,550
23,050
46,400
850
1,900
1,100
2,600
7,475
1,375
7,475
23,625
45,575
850
1,875
1,100
2,625
7,375
1,350
7,475
22,925
45,500
850
1,875
1,100
2,625
7,450
1,350
7,150
23,100
45,400
825
1,875
1,075
2,600
7,525
1,375
7,000
23,125
-2.4
-2.9
-9.6
-4.4
0.0
-3.8
0.0
-1.1
-1.9
-1.7
-3.9
-13.7
-1.7
3.0
-3.4
-1.8
-0.9
-0.7
98,622
79,515
7,681
11,426
8,122
20,176
72,835
55,270
7,097
10,468
7,559
18,691
77,541
61,134
5,997
10,410
7,723
21,693
70,830
56,011
4,986
9,833
7,303
19,057
76,033
61,347
5,452
9,234
7,081
22,490
7.4
4.5
2.5
37.1
7.9
18.1
3.5
4.7
3.9
-2.8
3.4
6.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
139,950
134,325
5,625
4.0
136,825
131,525
5,300
3.9
138,875
133,500
5,375
3.9
137,975
132,025
5,950
4.3
136,950
130,900
6,050
4.4
1.7
1.7
2.1
0.4
4.2
3.8
12.2
7.6
111,475
875
7,700
6,300
3,050
29,075
2,925
32,475
29,075
112,425
875
7,725
6,300
3,000
28,975
2,925
32,075
30,550
112,825
875
7,750
6,275
3,025
29,300
2,950
31,925
30,725
111,975
850
7,625
6,200
2,875
29,150
2,925
31,575
30,775
110,850
850
7,600
6,200
2,925
29,200
2,925
31,450
29,700
-0.4
-22.7
2.0
-2.7
-1.7
3.4
0.9
0.0
-3.6
1.3
-26.4
1.1
-2.7
0.7
2.8
0.6
1.3
2.1
245,559
175,307
40,646
29,606
21,043
67,040
228,751
163,611
39,286
25,854
18,670
64,157
220,143
156,670
37,909
25,564
18,966
68,008
213,649
160,170
32,271
21,208
15,752
61,285
254,541
194,976
34,193
25,372
19,455
69,425
6.9
8.0
9.4
-3.3
-23.9
24.3
3.9
5.5
1.8
-2.9
2.1
7.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TEN
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements
I N D I C A T O R S
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
1,686.0
1,593.7
92.3
5.1
1,679.4
1,588.6
90.8
5.0
1,679.4
1,589.0
90.4
5.1
1,686.5
1,598.1
88.4
5.3
1,686.1
1,601.8
84.3
5.2
1.6
1.9
-4.0
-5.5
3.1
1.6
40.3
37.9
1,561.7
2.3
119.0
145.5
112.7
32.8
81.3
378.0
87.1
290.9
124.2
511.6
199.8
1,575.1
2.3
119.1
144.8
111.9
32.9
80.9
377.7
87.2
290.5
123.7
512.3
214.3
1,591.1
2.3
121.2
144.0
110.9
33.1
80.9
381.4
87.1
294.3
123.9
517.5
219.9
1,606.6
2.2
120.3
143.0
110.0
33.0
80.9
390.5
86.7
303.8
124.1
519.3
226.3
1,604.9
2.1
119.3
142.7
109.9
32.8
81.1
394.5
87.1
307.4
124.3
520.9
220.0
-0.0
-8.7
2.0
-6.5
-7.7
-2.1
-4.8
-0.3
-2.9
0.5
-2.8
1.8
3.3
-1.0
-3.5
-3.3
-8.4
-9.4
-4.5
-5.9
0.7
-2.4
1.6
-1.3
-0.5
4.0
3,083,025
2,201,130
367,936
324,327
189,631
670,249
3,011,537
2,105,668
378,378
355,447
172,044
663,829
3,064,337
2,113,549
391,353
381,790
177,645
669,893
3,182,996
2,231,413
396,379
376,656
178,548
657,936
3,936,327
2,958,848
397,649
403,029
176,801
768,738
4.9
4.1
-0.4
5.7
37.2
-0.3
0.6
0.1
1.3
3.3
0.1
-2.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4,148
3,537
57
554
3,862
3,180
21
661
4,263
4,023
43
217
3,288
2,800
34
454
3,897
2,689
40
1,168
42.7
33.6
5.3
71.5
12.1
18.8
-37.3
-12.9
1,019,549
5,519
184,734
944,066
5,262
179,412
1,003,438
5,406
185,616
954,636
5,064
188,514
...
...
...
24.7
14.1
9.4
8.4
2.7
5.3
3,126,697
47,183
2,553,859
44,256
3,003,824
47,810
2,879,775
45,394
3,158,765
46,647
18.2
10.3
0.3
-1.4
PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters
IV
2001
I
2002
II
2002
III
2002
IV
2002
3,411.3
8.5
14.5
6.0
14.7
3,431.6
8.6
14.6
6.1
11.7
3,450.1
8.5
14.6
6.1
10.1
3,467.8
8.4
14.5
6.1
9.3
3,482.8
8.3
14.4
6.2
6.8
2.1
-2.1
-0.4
2.0
-53.9
2.4
-0.6
0.5
2.0
-36.1
93,757
70,700
4,355
-50
16,270
11,191
27,484
94,483
71,148
4,398
-48
16,236
11,546
27,533
95,074
71,444
4,429
-48
16,208
11,899
27,557
95,665
71,741
4,460
-47
16,180
12,252
27,587
96,256
72,037
4,491
-47
16,152
12,605
27,637
2.7
1.9
3.1
5.5
-0.7
12.6
0.6
2.5
1.7
2.9
4.1
-0.7
13.2
0.1
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
PAGE ELEVEN
A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA)
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Contracting
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total Awards
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 adjusted by EBR
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-5-plus Unit Structures
Housing Sales and Prices, TAR
Total Sales ($000s)
Total Units
Average Price ($)
Tucson International Airport, TAA
Total Passengers
Total Aircraft Movements
I N D I C A T O R S
DEC
2002
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
401.4
382.9
18.5
4.5
405.0
387.0
18.0
4.2
406.1
388.6
17.5
4.1
408.4
390.3
18.1
4.4
411.8
394.2
17.6
4.2
2.4
2.5
0.0
-2.3
2.9
1.8
34.6
31.3
338.0
1.5
22.2
32.0
27.5
4.5
10.7
69.2
9.9
59.3
15.1
114.7
72.6
345.8
1.5
22.2
32.0
27.5
4.5
10.6
69.9
10.0
59.9
15.1
115.1
79.4
351.2
1.4
22.2
32.0
27.4
4.6
10.7
71.3
10.1
61.2
15.3
116.5
81.8
353.9
1.4
22.4
31.4
26.9
4.5
10.7
73.2
10.2
63.0
15.3
116.8
82.7
356.1
1.3
22.5
31.8
27.3
4.5
10.7
73.9
10.0
63.9
15.4
117.3
83.2
0.6
-27.8
5.1
-4.8
-4.5
-6.3
-4.5
-0.4
-3.8
0.2
2.0
1.9
1.6
-0.9
-21.7
-1.6
-5.0
-4.3
-9.5
-8.3
-1.1
-2.9
-0.7
2.7
-0.4
1.5
721,638
509,843
88,988
77,143
45,664
123,257
666,283
448,974
91,514
80,483
45,312
117,242
686,294
459,187
94,652
83,208
49,247
138,597
714,109
486,959
95,867
85,393
45,890
132,331
886,690
652,675
96,175
90,409
47,431
140,488
1.2
0.4
-2.5
-1.2
33.6
10.1
0.6
0.9
-0.8
2.5
-3.1
-0.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
709
679
30
747
493
254
979
508
472
586
484
102
516
497
19
-11.5
5.8
-83.4
-1.9
3.4
-21.3
189,735
1,063
178,490
153,600
942
163,058
185,340
1,111
166,822
158,511
883
179,514
187,037
1,022
183,011
46.2
32.0
10.7
14.1
7.4
6.4
277,308
22,888
239,291
20,546
291,967
25,887
291,978
22,367
318,093
23,017
14.2
15.6
-3.2
4.8
TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
IV
2002
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters
IV
2001
I
2002
II
2002
III
2002
877.4
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.3
882.0
1.3
3.1
1.8
3.3
886.7
1.3
3.1
1.9
3.4
891.6
1.3
3.2
1.9
3.6
895.9
1.3
3.2
1.9
2.9
2.1
2.9
2.3
1.8
-12.4
2.1
2.6
2.2
2.0
-8.5
21,290
13,399
797
95
5,006
3,588
24,264
21,479
13,466
803
95
5,028
3,694
24,352
21,667
13,525
810
96
5,051
3,804
24,434
21,854
13,585
816
96
5,074
3,914
24,510
22,042
13,645
822
97
5,098
4,024
24,604
3.5
1.8
3.1
2.0
1.8
12.2
1.4
3.6
1.8
3.1
2.5
1.9
12.9
1.4
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
PAGE TWELVE
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA
Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES
Employment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%)
Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util.
Transportation
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
Schools
Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES
Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES
Construction
Manufacturing
Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Sales ($000s) ADOR
Aggregate Retail Sales
Retail
Food, EBR
Restaurants & Bars
Gasoline, EBR
Gallons (000s) ADOT
Utilities
Communications
Amusements
Rentals - Personal Property
Contracting
Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas
Hotel/Motel
Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge
Total
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
Non-Building
New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40
Total Units
Single Family Units
2-4 Unit Structures
5-plus Unit Structures
Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court
Total
Chapter 7
Chapter 11
Chapter 13
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
AUG
2002
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
2,521.5
2,363.6
157.9
5.7
2,510.1
2,358.6
151.5
5.7
2,508.9
2,362.5
146.4
5.7
2,514.7
2,372.3
142.4
5.8
2,514.5
2,379.7
134.8
5.6
1.9
2.1
-0.5
-3.4
3.1
1.8
28.2
24.1
2,220.0
8.5
161.1
194.1
150.9
43.2
104.8
67.6
527.7
106.5
421.2
148.6
706.2
369.0
50.4
318.6
162.8
39.6
2,243.6
8.4
161.0
193.2
150.0
43.2
104.3
67.6
527.8
107.0
420.8
148.3
707.3
393.3
50.0
343.3
188.3
39.8
2,265.9
8.5
163.0
192.4
148.9
43.5
104.2
67.6
533.7
107.4
426.3
148.6
713.6
401.9
50.8
351.1
195.7
39.5
2,284.9
8.3
162.1
190.6
147.2
43.4
104.2
67.6
546.0
107.1
438.9
148.9
714.9
409.9
51.5
358.4
197.5
39.8
2,286.9
8.0
161.5
191.3
147.5
43.8
104.3
67.8
552.0
108.0
444.0
149.1
716.8
403.9
52.4
351.5
197.5
39.9
0.2
-12.1
1.4
-5.5
-6.7
-1.1
-4.7
-2.9
0.1
-3.2
1.0
-2.1
1.7
2.4
4.2
2.2
3.7
-0.5
-0.8
-9.3
-3.6
-7.3
-8.1
-4.4
-5.3
-4.6
0.5
-2.3
1.3
-0.7
-0.3
2.9
3.5
2.8
3.6
-0.6
14.86
13.89
22.79
12.43
14.50
14.83
13.94
23.47
12.65
14.61
14.89
14.00
24.04
12.49
14.19
14.89
14.03
23.86
12.51
14.33
14.84
14.25
23.27
12.57
14.68
-3.9
4.3
4.4
5.5
4.9
-4.0
5.5
8.9
6.9
-0.3
4,632,596
3,232,985
588,857
488,049
322,705
229,373
615,257
225,911
53,642
249,909
952,960
19,966
100,227
4,438,566
3,021,802
605,568
519,441
291,756
210,684
617,474
222,552
44,133
273,631
942,741
24,781
111,209
4,549,023
3,074,628
626,334
547,147
300,914
223,247
537,545
230,174
71,241
299,225
986,784
22,298
147,752
4,685,212
3,219,354
634,377
538,961
292,520
217,261
409,075
248,168
68,468
271,080
947,204
58,005
128,654
5,748,614
4,235,573
636,410
577,181
299,450
229,622
431,351
281,650
62,030
292,967
1,085,680
24,702
119,475
4.9
4.1
1.2
4.8
30.6
2.7
-2.2
11.1
4.7
3.0
3.2
51.4
13.5
1.4
1.0
3.0
3.2
-0.9
5.8
1.4
4.0
6.9
-5.8
0.0
5.5
-3.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5,516
4,851
104
561
5,297
4,294
96
907
5,876
5,228
105
543
4,537
3,810
77
650
5,085
3,721
82
1,282
36.5
27.2
18.8
75.4
11.6
15.3
-9.5
-5.8
2,725
2,204
24
496
2,480
1,983
22
474
2,778
2,212
18
547
2,373
1,876
18
479
2,233
1,728
14
490
7.5
6.1
-17.6
13.4
16.6
15.1
-0.7
24.0
See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
PAGE THIRTEEN
A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
ARIZONA QUARTERLY DATA
Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Net Migration
Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR
Total Personal Income
Earnings by Place of Work
Less: Contributions for Social Insurance
Plus: Adjustment for Residence
Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents
Plus: Transfer Payments
Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA
Wages and Salaries
Other Labor Income
Proprietor’s Income
Farm
Nonfarm
Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR
Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) EBR
I N D I C A T O R S
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
quarter
4-quarters
IV
2001
I
2002
II
2002
III
2002
IV
2002
5,378.0
11.2
21.4
10.2
24.9
5,411.5
10.6
21.1
10.5
20.2
5,440.8
10.4
21.1
10.7
17.4
5,467.6
10.4
21.2
10.8
15.2
5,493.4
10.3
21.3
10.9
15.7
2.1
-7.9
-0.6
7.5
-37.0
2.5
-5.5
-0.6
4.8
-36.3
137,895
96,935
5,988
454
26,689
19,805
141,877
99,766
6,260
466
27,197
20,708
142,605
99,638
6,249
465
27,437
21,313
143,285
100,317
6,290
468
27,142
21,650
144,979
101,993
6,404
475
27,024
21,893
5.1
5.2
6.9
4.6
1.3
10.5
4.3
3.5
5.6
1.8
1.6
12.6
78,554
8,491
9,890
377
9,513
25,640
34,368
79,233
8,705
10,698
915
9,784
26,218
34,649
80,363
8,959
10,274
268
10,006
26,210
35,191
81,312
9,191
10,507
365
10,141
26,206
35,599
...
...
...
...
...
26,392
...
1.9
8.5
4.9
15.1
4.5
2.9
2.7
1.8
7.4
4.2
50.9
2.6
1.7
2.7
TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA
AUG
2002
Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB
Northern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
Southern Arizona
Historical
Scenic
Water Based Recreation
International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS
U.S. Citizens
Aliens
Vehicles
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
2,183,827
135,563
684,190
1,364,074
143,167
20,772
88,545
33,850
1,601,720
128,875
460,485
1,012,360
96,631
19,541
51,970
25,120
1,357,160
129,697
467,817
759,646
163,331
28,200
107,146
27,985
903,554
90,875
315,281
497,398
189,581
32,056
137,672
19,853
747,292
70,844
226,446
450,002
194,403
38,780
145,327
10,296
2.7
8.9
-14.7
13.4
-6.4
-13.5
-3.3
-18.5
-7.8
-5.1
-3.3
-10.4
-13.6
-16.5
-14.4
-7.0
862,826
2,340,636
911,075
802,188
2,150,381
887,222
842,304
2,243,959
935,176
793,992
2,166,856
871,531
1,193,979
2,126,365
893,268
31.8
-8.0
2.7
21.7
11.8
2.9
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS
U.S. - All Urban
U.S. - Wage Earners
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
SEP
2002
OCT
2002
NOV
2002
DEC
2002
181.0
177.0
181.3
177.3
181.3
177.4
180.9
177.0
JAN
2003
...
...
% change versus year ago for:
most
most
recent
recent
month
12-months
2.4
2.4
1.6
1.4
Sources and abbreviations:
ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security
ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services
ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue
ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation
ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department
ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce
PAGE FOURTEEN
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department
of Commerce
EBR: Economic & Business Research Program,
The University of Arizona
F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems
Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission)
NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce
PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
TAA: Tucson Airport Authority
TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors
USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service,
U.S. Department of Justice
U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona
USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department
of the Treasury
ARIZONA’S ECONOMY
A R I Z O N A
E C O N O M I C
I N D I C A T O R S
MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - QUARTERLY DATA
Consumer Price index (1982-84=100) BLS
Western Region (U.S.)
U.S. - All Urban Consumers
U.S. - Urban Wage Earners
Price Indexes (1996=100) BEA
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures
IV
2001
I
2002
II
2002
III
2002
182.1
177.3
173.5
183.2
177.9
173.9
184.8
179.8
175.8
185.2
180.6
176.6
185.7
181.2
177.2
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.4
109.8
109.8
110.1
110.1
110.5
110.9
110.8
111.4
111.5
112.0
1.9
1.2
1.4
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2002
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recent
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PAGE FIFTEEN
BUSINESS FORUM
BREAKFAST WITH
THE ECONOMISTS: A MID-YEAR
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Join us
for breakfast as three top economists update
today’s economic reality—where we are and
where we’re headed mid-way through 2003.
Bank One’s Chief Economist, Diane Swonk,
will address the current economic situation.
Presenters include:
Gerald Swanson, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Economics, the Eller College
Marshall Vest, Director
Economic and Business Research, the Eller College
Diane Swonk, Chief Economist & Senior Vice
President
Bank One Corporation
When:
Where:
Cost:
Parking:
Info:
Friday, May 30, 2003, 7:15 a.m. ~ 9:00 a.m.
McClelland Hall ~ Estes Atrium ~ 1130 East Helen Street
$16.00 per person*
Seating is limited, so make your reservations early!
Complimentary parking provided in the Park Avenue garage
(the corner of Park Avenue & Speedway Boulevard).
Mary Hanson ~ 520.621.9954 ~ mhanson@eller.arizona.edu
*Fee is not a charitable contribution.
PAGE SIXTEEN
ARIZONA'S ECONOMY